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Tuesday, March 21, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Commits Another $350 Million in Ukraine Military Aid.  The Biden administration announced Monday that it is sending another $350 million in military aid to Ukraine.  The State and Defense departments say the aid package includes more ammunition for HIMARS units and Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARMs), anti-armor weapons, riverine boats, grenade launchers, mortar and artillery systems, fuel tankers and mine clearing equipment.  The new aid will come through the presidential drawdown authority, which pulls from American weapons stockpiles, and will bring total U.S. lethal aid for Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion to over $32 billion.  New York Times Reuters The Hill US Department of Defense US Department of State

Biden Signs Law to Declassify Information on Covid Origins.  President Joe Biden signed a bill that requires the declassification of information on the origins of Covid-19.  The Senate and House of Representatives approved the bill without opposition prior to sending it to the White House.  The legislation aims to address ongoing debate about how the Covid-19 pandemic started.  There is no consensus on the answer.  Recent assessments by the FBI and the U.S. Energy Department lend veracity to the lab leak theory while contrasting new analysis from other researchers suggests that the virus was spread to humans through natural transmission from raccoon dogs in a Wuhan seafood market.  Reuters The Hill Washington Post

Honduras Says U.S. ‘Respects’ Pivot from Taiwan to China.  Honduran Foreign Minister Enrique Reina said Monday after meeting with U.S. officials that Washington “respects” Honduras’ decision to move towards establishing formal diplomatic ties with China.  His comments come one week after Honduran President Xiomara Castro said her country will switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.  Taiwan's Foreign Ministry has warned Honduras against this decision, saying the Latin American country should not believe China's promises and that Taiwan's other allies including Paraguay have reiterated they are standing by Taipei. The move reflects a deepening Chinese interest in Latin America, as China’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure project aims to stretch around the globe. There was no immediate response from the U.S. about Reina’s claims.  Reuters

Western Europe

France’s Macron Survives No Confidence Vote.  Two no-confidence votes ultimately weren’t enough to derail President Emmanuel Macron’s government, making way for controversial pension reforms that have spawned protests and strikes across France.  Last week, Macron’s government made use of special constitutional powers to effectively raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.  The move drew rebukes from opposition parties on the right and left, who then called for a series of no-confidence votes.  They failed.  But Macron’s narrow win has raised questions about his government’s long-term ability to govern amid rising unrest and political opposition.  CNN New York Times

NATO Releases Annual Report for 2022.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presented the alliance’s annual report for 2022 in a press conference on Tuesday.  Dominating the report is Russia’s war in Ukraine, a war that Stoltenberg called a ‘big strategic mistake’ by Putin and one that is giving Putin more, not less NATO on his borders.  Stoltenberg highlighted the importance of NATO members' defense spending, tensions with Turkey and added that terrorism and China remain concerns, with China representing challenges to NATO’s ‘security, interests and values’.  Deutsche Welle 

EU Launches Plan to Send 1 Million Artillery Shells to Ukraine.  The EU agreed to a deal on Monday that will facilitate the transfer of 1 million rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine over the next year.  The arrangement will have bloc members spend 1 million euros on shells from their own stockpiles and another 1 million euros on joint procurement from EU and Norwegian companies.  The EU’s European Defense Agency will coordinate the massive project and the 2 billion euros for the plan will come from the European Peace Facility fund.  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called the plan a “historic decision” that will help bolster Ukrainian defenses.  Defense News Reuters

Norway Sends Leopard Tanks to Ukraine.  Norway’s Armed Forces confirmed that it delivered eight Leopard 2 tanks and four support vehicles to Ukraine on Monday.  Norway said late January that it would send some of its Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv but didn’t initially specify how many it would deliver.  Norway’s military added that it has allocated funding for ammunition and parts for the tanks and that Ukrainian troops are training to operate the tanks in Poland.  Kyiv Independent

UK Sanctions Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Members.  In a show of escalating tensions between London and Tehran, Britain on Monday sanctioned senior officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The sanctions impose an asset freeze and UK travel ban on seven members of the group, including members of the Board of Directors of the IRGC Co-operative Foundation, which handles the group's finances, and IRGC commanders in Tehran and Alborz provinces.  Western nations, including the European Union and the United States, have lobbed a series of sanctions against Iran after its widespread crackdowns on protests following the death of a woman in police custody in September.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Xi Raises Ukraine Peace Plan With Putin in Moscow.  Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for over four hours on Monday in Moscow.  The two leaders reportedly focused their talks on strengthening bilateral cooperation and Beijing’s peace plan for Ukraine.  Chinese state media said Xi reiterated Beijing’s offer to play a mediating role in the Ukraine war and said that more countries are calling for de-escalation and oppose “adding fuel to the fire.”  Russian state media said that Putin welcomed China’s “consistent” and “balanced” position and that Moscow is “open to peace talks” and will welcome any support from Beijing.  Russian media also reported that Putin “went out into the street” to see off Xi in a rare, warm gesture at the end of their meeting.  Xi later said he had asked Putin to visit China “at a convenient time,” likely around an investment forum for China’s Belt and Road Initiative.  The U.S. did not have as rosy a view on the talks between the “dear friends.”  Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded to Xi and Putin’s meeting by saying it amounted to China providing “diplomatic cover” for Putin after the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.  Blinken also warned against being “fooled” by Russia’s attempts to “freeze the war on its own terms,” specifically saying a peace plan must include the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.  In contrast to Ukraine’s peace plan, China’s peace proposal does not include such a withdrawal and only has vague calls for restraint and the respect of countries’ sovereignty.  BBC Financial Times New York Times Reuters South China Morning Post

China Sending Drones, Drone Parts to Russia.  Despite Western efforts to block the transfer of key technologies to Russia that could be used in its invasion of Ukraine, Chinese drones are still making their way to Moscow.  Russian customs data shows that since the start of the Ukraine war, Chinese companies have sold over $12 million in drones and drone parts to Russia.  It’s difficult to determine if the drone shipments, which come from drone making giant DJI and other smaller companies, contain U.S. technology or if the transfers are legal, and the customs figures don’t shed light on potential unofficial shipments sent through other countries like Belarus.  The murky supply channels allowing Russia to restock its drone fleets show the limits to Western sanctions and demonstrate China’s increasing support for Russia’s war effort despite Beijing’s effort to frame itself as a potential mediator in the conflict.  New York Times

Japan’s Kishida Makes Unannounced Visit to Kyiv.  In a parallel to Xi’s visit to Moscow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise trip to Kyiv on Tuesday.  Kishida is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss Tokyo’s support for Ukraine.  The Japanese premier traveled to Ukraine via train from Poland after meeting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.  Kishida’s trip makes him the last Group of Seven (G7) leader to visit Ukraine and the first post-war Japanese leader to visit an active conflict zone.  China’s foreign ministry criticized the trip, saying Japan should work to de-escalate the situation.  In contrast, the U.S. hailed the visit as a show of support for Ukraine.  Al Jazeera CNN Kyodo News Nikkei Asia Washington Post

Ukraine Says Russian Missiles Destroyed in Crimea.  Ukraine’s defense ministry said an explosion in Dzhankoi city in the north of the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula destroyed Russian missiles.  Local Russian-installed officials say the explosion was caused by a drone attack that targeted civilians.  The Ukrainian defense ministry claimed the the missiles were meant for Russia’s Black Sea fleet and were hit while being transported by rail.  As with other strikes on Russian-occupied territory and Russia itself, Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the apparent attack.  BBC Reuters

Turkey Blocks Flow of Western-Sanctioned Goods to Russia.  Russia may be facing further isolation as Turkey has reportedly blocked the flow of Western-sanctioned goods to Russia this month.  A top Turkish export official and EU diplomat say the Turkish government blocked the shipment of foreign goods covered by EU, US and UK sanctions to Russia starting March 1.  The move comes amid Western pressure on Ankara to stop the transfer of key products like chemicals and microchips to Russia which could be used to support its invasion of Ukraine.  Turkey’s trade ministry did not comment on the reported restrictions.  Reuters

EU Ministers Call for Sanctions on Pro-Russia Oligarchs in Moldova, Georgia.  The foreign ministers of France, Romania and Estonia say the EU must sanction oligarchs they say are involved in pro-Russian “destabilization attempts” in Moldova and Georgia.  Speaking on the proposed sanctions, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said Moldova and Georgia are facing destabilization risks that the EU must address, and Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said the bloc has the “responsibility” to target “Russian proxy agents,” especially in Moldova.  The ministers’ comments come after Moldova was alerted by Ukrainian intelligence to a potential coup attempt by Russia-backed individuals and follow Georgia’s rejection of a “foreign agents” bill that critics said would increase Russian malign influence on the country.  Politico

Asia

Chinese Researchers Say Can’t Make an Omelet Without Breaking a Few Eggs.  There are growing calls in China for the country to forgo its traditionally risk-averse research environment focused on short-term gains in favor of one more tolerant of mistakes.  Experts say that while embracing more high-risk research in this way may take more time, it could possibly generate more breakthroughs.  Academics and government officials alike are agreeing that Beijing must invest more in longer-term, innovation-focused basic research to make progress in critical areas if it wants to achieve greater self-reliance and catch up to and compete with U.S. technology.  South China Morning Post

South Korea Adds Items to Export Ban on North Korea.  South Korea announced it is banning a list of 77 items from export to North Korea.  South Korea’s foreign ministry said many of the banned items are linked to Pyongyang’s satellite development program and that the export controls are part of an ongoing escalation in sanctions against the North Korean regime.  Reuters

South Korea Adding Japan Back to Fast-Track Trade List.  South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday that he will add Japan back to the country’s fast-track trade white list.  Yoon said putting Japan back on the list will help strengthen key supply chains and that he expects Japan to respond swiftly and positively.  The move will reverse a 2019 decision to strike Tokyo from the list over historical disputes regarding forced labor during Japan’s occupation of Korea.  The development comes amid efforts by Seoul and Tokyo to move past the forced labor feud and strengthen ties to jointly address shared concerns about China and North Korea.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Arabia Releases Detained US National.  Facing 19 years in a Saudi jail, a 72-year-old US citizen was released on Tuesday, after U.S. President Joe Biden raised his case during meetings with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in July. Saad Ibrahim Almadi, a dual U.S.-Saudi national, was arrested after landing in Riyadh in November 2021 for posting criticism of the Saudi government on Twitter. He was arrested on several charges, including funding terrorism and trying to destabilize the kingdom.  In October, Biden threatened consequences for Riyadh after the OPEC+ oil alliance decided to cut output.  More recently, however, both sides have been striving to improve ties, which likely motivated Almadi’s release.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Israeli Minister Denies Existence of Palestinian People. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said at a conference in France on Monday that there is no such thing as Palestinian history and culture or Palestinian people. Smotrich, who heads a far-right religious-nationalist party in Israel’s ruling coalition, is responsible for administrating the West Bank. Smotrich also angered neighboring country Jordan as he was seen making these comments near an Israeli flag variation that depicted expanded boundaries for Israel that stretched into Jordan. Smotrich’s comments have received condemnation from the United Nations, Palestinian, and Jordanian authorities.  Reuters

Yemen’s Warring Sides Agree to Release 887 Prisoners.  The two sides in Yemen’s civil war – the Iran-aligned Houthis and the Yemeni government – agreed on Monday to free 887 detainees.  Officials report that the Houthis agreed to release 181 prisoners, including 15 Saudis and three Sudanese, while the Yemeni government agreed to release 706 prisoners.  The exchange will reportedly happen in three weeks.  The agreement for the prisoner swap adds to growing optimism that the conflict in Yemen may be headed towards a final resolution, especially after the resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Reuters UN News

Sub Saharan Africa

American Aid Worker, French Journalist Held Hostage in Niger Finally Freed. French journalist Olivier Dubois and U.S. aid worker Jeffery Woodke were freed Monday night after being held hostage in Niger by Islamic militants for several years. Dubois was kidnapped in 2021 from Mali, while Woodke was kidnapped in 2016 from Niger. The two were being held by the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM), which is a West-Africa affiliate of al Qaeda. Reuters

U.S. Says All Sides in Tigray War Guilty of War Crimes. A report from the US State Department has concluded that all sides involved in the two year conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region committed war crimes.  The report says forces from all sides involved in the war, which killed tens of thousands and displaced over a million people, also committed crimes against humanity including sexual violence and murder.  Washington’s assessment on the war comes after Secretary Antony Blinken’s visit to Ethiopia last week, where he praised the implementation of a peace deal to end the Tigray war.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Cyber & Tech

ChatGPT Used to Win Hackathon, Raises Fears That Real Systems are Next.  A cybersecurity firm employed ChatGPT to exploit vulnerabilities in industrial systems, raising questions about how hackers might use the AI bot to more effectively conduct cyber strikes.  The company, Claroty, participated in a hack-a-thon competition in Miami, where the goal was to disrupt Internet of Things and industrial systems, and used the AI bot to write code that saved hours of manual work.  While ChatGPT is still considered too unpredictable, the researchers acknowledged that “won’t always be the case.”  Wall Street Journal

India Continues Punjab Internet Blackout Amid Manhunt.  In what has become one of most extensive blackouts in India’s history, Indian authorities have cut off Internet services in the state of Punjab for a fourth straight day. The move affects some 27 million people, and is being conducted amidst an operation to corral the Sikh preacher and Khalistan separatist, Amritpal Singh Sandhu, who seeks to establish a sovereign state for followers of the Sikh religion. Police in Punjab said the shutdown was a means to maintain order and stop the spread of “fake news.” For decades, some Sikhs have called for an independent state inside Punjab.  Washington Post

Tik Tok CEO to Congress: App has 150 Million Active US Users. During his testimony to Congress that is set for Thursday, Tik Tok CEO Shou Zi Chew plans to officially unveil that around 150 million users in the US regularly use Tik Tok. The current reported number is 100 million, but this jump aims to demonstrate to Congress that the app is much more involved in American daily lives than people realize. Chew’s testimony comes as lawmakers from both parties as well as the White House weigh a potential total ban on the app.  NBC 

Android Discovers Severe Security Error in Markup Tool on Pixel Phones. Security researcher Simon Aarons has reportedly discovered a serious vulnerability in the Markup tool on Pixel phones that allows hackers to unredact and uncrop-edited screenshots. The flaw, which has been nicknamed “Acropalypse” has been given a Common Vulnerabilities and Exposure ID. According to the report, on most messaging and social media apps the images are compressed and re-processed, so the hack would not work there. However, it would be possible over text and some other forms of communication and social media.  Android Authority

Pro-Russia Hackers Escalating Attacks Against Hospitals.  Cybersecurity researchers said this week that they have noticed pro-Russia hackers increasingly targeting hospitals, with a group called Killnet progressively launching distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks since November. The group launched a campaign in February that targeted hospitals in more than 25 states. Roughly half of those attacks, officials say, were thought to be successful in taking sites offline. Authorities pointed to an increase from 10-20 daily attacks in November to 40-60 attacks each day in February. “The types of healthcare organizations attacked included pharma and life sciences with 31% of all attacks, hospitals with 26%, healthcare insurance with 16%, and health services and care also with 16%,” they said.  The Record

New Botnet Malware Enabling Massive DDoS Attacks.  A new kind of botnet malware, described as HinataBot, is being employed to launch widespread distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks. Discovered by researchers at Akamai Technologies, Inc. – an American content delivery network (CDN), cybersecurity, and cloud service company – the malware is based on the Go programming language, and seems to be inspired by the Mirai botnet, a malware that turns networked devices running Linux into remotely controlled bots that can be employed in large-scale network attacks.  It focuses largely toward online consumer devices such as IP cameras and home routers.  After infecting devices, analysts say, the malware will run covertly, patiently waiting for commands to perform from the command and control server.  BleepingComputer

Australia Fintech Firm Latitude Takes Systems Offline After Cyberattack.  A week after some 330,000 people had their drivers' license or license plate information stolen in an apparent cyberattack against an Australian fintech firm, the targeted company took its platforms offline as the attack remained active.  Latitude Group Holdings Ltd said the attack appeared "well-organized" and that it would resume services "gradually over the coming days."  Federal Police continue to investigate the incident, which comes on the heels of several Australian firms reporting cyber attacks, which analysts say is both a product of an increased number of strikes and a chronically understaffed cybersecurity industry in Australia.  Reuters The Cipher Brief

BBC Staff Told to Remove TikTok from Company Devices.  The BBC is pressing staffers to remove TikTok from their corporate mobile phone, after the UK government banned the app on government devices. Tiktok, the Chinese-owned social media app, has been an increasing source of controversy over security concerns and its ties to Beijing, as western government mull banning the app outright. Explaining the move, the BBC said: “The decision is based on concerns raised by government authorities worldwide regarding data privacy and security.”  The Guardian 

Australian Startup Providing Hypersonic Test Vehicle to Pentagon.  After a bruising competition that involved more than 60 companies, an Australian startup has won a coveted Pentagon contract to produce a test vehicle for the hypersonic and high-cadence airborne testing capabilities. The company, called Hypersonix Launch Systems, was chosen by the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit in an effort to close the hypersonic gap with China in terms of capacity. The Defense Department is exploring low-cost, airborne testing platforms that provide “data that accelerates the evaluation of potential systems, concepts, technologies, and mission sets.” The goal is to produce a vehicle “capable of operating in a ‘representative environment’ that can maintain speeds above Mach 5 with a maneuverable/non-ballistic flight profile and at least a 3-minute flight duration with near-constant flight conditions,” according to the press release.  Defense Scoop

Kremlin Tells Russian Officials to Stop Using iPhones.  At a Kremlin-organized seminar, Sergei Kiriyenko, first deputy head of the presidential administration, told officials to change their phones by April 1, Kommersant, the Russian daily newspaper, reported, citing unnamed sources. "It's all over for the iPhone: either throw it away or give it to the children," the paper cited another official. Iphones are thought to be especially vulnerable intelligence agencies, it added. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said he could not confirm the report.  Reuters

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