Tuesday, March 14, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
AUKUS Allies Formally Announce Plan for Australian Nuclear-Powered Submarines. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met in San Diego on Monday to formally announce a plan to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS deal. The plan will have the US sell up to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s followed a decade later by joint production between the three countries of a new “SSN Aukus” nuclear-powered submarine. The submarines will boost Canberra’s trilateral submarine operations and extend the range of its underwater capabilities. The project will cost Australia up to A$368 ($245 billion) over the next 30 years for shipbuilding efforts in all three participating countries. Reuters South China Morning Post
Biden Says Speaking to China’s Xi Soon. At the AUKUS meeting, Biden told reporters he did not think China would see the submarine deal as an aggressive move against Beijing and that he would speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping soon, without elaborating. Biden’s brief comments on a potential talk with Xi came after US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said last week that the US is seeking to reestablish regular communications with China and that Biden and Xi will hold a phone call at some point now that China’s National People’s Congress has concluded. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson echoed Sullivan on Tuesday, saying China and the US should genuinely engage to manage tensions. Reuters The Hill
Mexico Safer than US, Lopez Obrador Says. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took a jab at the US on Monday by saying his country is safer than its northern neighbor and that Americans should have no problems traveling around Mexico. His comments came in response to criticism about Mexican security following the fatal kidnapping of four Americans earlier this month. Despite the kidnapping and several recent missing person cases and gang violence incidents, Lopez Obrador dismissed negative reports about Mexican security as “anti-Mexico” political talking points. Associated Press Reuters
Colombia Accuses Clan del Golfo of Breaking Ceasefire. Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused the country’s largest criminal organization, Clan del Golfo, of breaking a ceasefire following a reported attack by the group on municipal aqueducts in the Antioquia province. Gustavo added that there is no possibility of negotiations if the group continues the attacks. The Clan did not respond to his comments. France 24 Reuters
Colombia Prosecutor Suspends Arrest Warrants Against FARC Dissidents. In contrast to dealings with the Clan, peace between Colombia and former FARC rebels is making progress. In the latest sign of this, Colombia’s attorney general suspended arrest warrants against 19 of the former rebels who rejected an earlier 2016 peace deal to help facilitate peace talks. Despite trouble with the Clan, Colombia’s ceasefire with other dissident and criminal groups to cease further violence is mainly holding. Reuters
Western Europe
Britain Updates Foreign Policy Framework, Focuses in on China, Russia. The UK updated its foreign policy framework on Monday with special emphasis on China and Russia. The refresh named Russia as the main regional threat and immediate security challenge while also raising concerns about Moscow looking to China and Iran for increased support. The report added that Britain’s collective security is now “intrinsically linked” to Ukraine’s and that the UK should continue supporting Kyiv. Regarding China, the document called Beijing an “epoch-defining challenge” while not labeling it an outright threat. The framework highlighted China’s military modernization, presence in the South China Sea and, for the first time, aggression towards Taiwan as areas of concern, but added that cooperation and managing tensions with Beijing is preferable, given economic ties. Reuters South China Morning Post
Italy Accuses Wagner Group of Being Behind Migrant Surge. The Italian government is accusing Russia’s Wagner Group of being responsible for a surge in migrant boats attempting to cross the Mediterranean from Africa. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto alleged that the crossings are part of Moscow’s hybrid warfare strategy to cause unrest in countries supporting Ukraine. Wagner has denied these claims, saying they have no involvement or concern with the Mediterranean migrant crisis. So far this year, Italy has seen 20,000 people attempt to reach the country, in comparison to 6,100 in the same time period in 2022. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Zelenskiy Says Ukraine’s Fate Tied to Bakhmut Outcome. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late Monday that the fate of Ukraine is now tied to the battle over the embattled city of Bakhmut and other areas in eastern Ukraine. He said Ukraine is fighting for its future in these battlegrounds and vowed to “destroy” Russian forces there. Ukrainian troops maintain that their defenses are holding in Bakhmut, but trench warfare in the city has claimed heavy casualties for both Ukraine and Russia. Some military analysts say Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut may not be the best course of action as losses in the city could limit Kyiv’s ability to launch future counteroffensives. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Reuters
Russia Moves Forward on Outlawing Criticism of Mercenary Groups. In a win for Russia’s Wagner Group, Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, voted to approve a measure that would punish those that criticize “volunteer” mercenary groups in Ukraine. The bill seeks to “protect” fighters from organizations like Wagner, whose leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, welcomed the proposed expansion in censorship. The bill needs to be approved by the parliament’s upper house before it is sent to President Vladimir Putin. Reuters
Lithuania Deems Wagner a Terrorist Group. Lithuania’s parliament unanimously voted to designate Russia’s Wagner Group as “a terrorist organization.” The parliament ruled that the mercenary group engages in “systematic, serious crimes of aggression” and that it is a threat to Lithuanian security. The resolution also calls on other countries to follow suit. Deutsche Welle RFE/RL
ICC Opening War Crimes Cases Against Russia Over Ukraine War. The International Criminal Court is opening two war crimes cases over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and will soon issue its first arrest warrants to Russian individuals linked to the war. Sources say the first cases will focus on Russia’s abduction of Ukrainian children and targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. It is unclear when the ICC will issue warrants or to who, though sources say the warrants could include the crime of genocide. While the ICC cases will mark the first international charges to be brought forward for the Ukraine war, trials remain unlikely as Russia is not likely to surrender its own officials to be investigated. Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters
Ukraine Rejects Russian Proposal for Reduced Extension of Black Sea Grain Deal. The Black Sea grain deal is in jeopardy again as Ukraine has rejected Russia’s proposal to extend the arrangement by 60 days – only half of the previous 120 day-duration. Turkey and the UN confirmed that talks to extend the deal, which expires next week, are ongoing as Ukraine remains steadfast in demanding a 120-day extension. The Kremlin has since repeated previous criticisms of the deal, saying it does not facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports. Al Jazeera Reuters
Asia
Australia Offers to Brief China on AUKUS Deal. Australian Defense Minister Ricahrd Marles says Canberra offered to brief China on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal with the US and UK. The offer for the dialogue echoes US assurances that the submarine deal is not meant to be aggressive against China. China’s foreign ministry has previously said it “firmly objects” to the deal. Reuters
South Korea Says North Korea Fired Two Ballistic Missiles. South Korea’s military said that North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the water off its east coast on Tuesday morning. The missiles were launched towards the Sea of Japan. Tokyo said it is collecting information on the matter, and that it found no damage. US Indo-Pacific Command said the missile test did not pose immediate threats but again demonstrated security challenges from Pyongyang. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Taiwan Seeking Return of Soldier Who Went to China. Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng announced Tuesday that the Taiwanese military is working to bring back a soldier who disappeared and was found in China. The soldier had been serving on Erdan islet on the main island of Kinmen, which is less than two miles from China’s coast at low tide. Chiu denied rumors that the soldier fled to China to escape abuse by the Taiwanese military and said Taipei is working through “alternative channels” to bring him back, without specifying. He also said he is not concerned that the soldier could disclose significant classified information about Taiwan’s military. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Taiwan Maintains Submarine Program Weathering Difficulties. Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Tuesday that the island’s domestic submarine program is going to plan despite several difficulties, without elaborating. His reassurance came after reports that the UK sharply increased exports of submarine-related equipment and technology to Taiwan. The island has been forced to build its own submarine fleet as other countries have refused to sell conventional submarines to Taiwan to avoid angering China. Reuters
Japanese, UK, and Italian Defense Ministers to Meet in Tokyo. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and Italian Defense Minister Guido Corsetto are set to travel to Tokyo and meet with Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada this week. The ministers are expected to discuss their three countries’ Global Combat Air Programme, a joint venture to develop a next-generation jet by 2035. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran Pardons 22,000 Anti-Government Protesters. Iran’s Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei says that Iranian judicial authorities have pardoned 22,000 people who participated in recent anti-government protests. Including those pardoned last month by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, around 82,000 people linked to the protests in total have been allegedly pardoned so far. Associated Press Reuters
Belarus’ Lukashenko Visits Iran. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko visited Tehran to meet Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and mark 30 years of diplomatic relations between Belarus and Iran. The two leaders signed a cooperation roadmap document, which includes eight agreements on trade, mining, transportation, and other issues. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
NSTR
Cyber & Tech
New Russian Speaking Hacking Group Targeting Eastern Europe. “Battlefield” is an expansive term. And a new hacking group may be expanding it even further. A group of Russian language speakers, known as “YoroTrooper,” has been targeting governments and energy organizations across Eastern Europe since at least June 2022. Its focus has reportedly been on Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, as well at least two international organizations: a European Union (EU) health care agency and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The infection chain has led to a swath of stolen information, with analysts pointing to other likely targets across organizations in Europe, including Turkish government agencies. Talos Intelligence
MI5 Establishes New Cyber Agency. Move over 007. The Brits this week announced the creation of a new UK security agency, known as the National Protective Security Authority, designed to unearth intelligence and thwart potential security threats, particularly those coming from state-backed cyber espionage. The move comes on the heels of several prominent calls across the pond for the creation of a seventh branch of the U.S. armed services, which would focus squarely on cyber threats. This UK-version will be overseen by domestic counterintelligence and security agency MI5, and will work with the GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre (the NCSC), and the National Counter Terrorism Security Office. Computer Weekly
Euler Finance Loses $200 Million In Crypto Theft. It is reportedly the largest hack of 2023. Nearly $200 million has been boosted from crypto lender Euler Finance, following a series of strikes known as flash loan attacks, in which the attacker uses a multichain bridge to quickly transfer funds. Euler Finance has acknowledged the attack, and is collaborating with security professionals and law enforcement in an attempt to cover the funds and identify the hackers. While the scale of the theft is immense, it is also thought to be only the 26th largest crypto theft ever. TechCrunch
US Special Ops Investing in Technology to Penetrate ‘Non-Permissive’ Environments. The term is “defend forward,” a maxim that points to the value of making it difficult for malicious actors to operate by first being aggressive towards them. Nowhere is that methodology more apparent than on the cyber frontlines, where U.S. special operations forces are undergoing a transformation to increase their focus on securing electronic access to digital spaces. Special operations forces will need to up their game in so-called non-permissive environments, officials say, particularly when it comes to surveillance and reconnaissance. Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 7 that such an evolved capacity is critical against both state and non-state actors, including Al Qaeda and ISIS. DefenseScoop
Estonia Says Elections Targeted by Unsuccessful Cyberattacks. Estonian officials told The Record that cyberactors unsuccessfully attempted to influence Estonia's parliamentary elections this month. The election notably marked the first time a majority of Estonians cast votes using an internet voting system, which Estonia has maintained is safe and secure. Estonia cautioned that while the attacks, which are suspected but not confirmed to have been launched from Russia, on the voting system were not successful, they underscore the high-value of such targets and the need to ensure strong cybersecurity measures around them. The Record
US Working to Bolster Cloud Security. Every cloud has a silver lining. The White House says it is working on the first plan to regulate security practices of US cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Oracle. The regulation aims to address concerns that the cloud, which is used by everyone from small businesses to the Pentagon and CIA, has become a major security risk due to reliance on it for data storage and computing power. The main worry is that the takedown of a cloud provider would impact a wide range of victims at the same time, potentially taking down healthcare, financial, infrastructure and government targets in a domino effect. Sources say cloud providers are becoming increasingly open to stronger regulatory measures to address these concerns and ensure stronger cloud security for their clients. Politico
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