Report for Tuesday, June 4, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel believes more than a third of Gaza hostages are deceased

Russia warns U.S. of ‘fatal consequences’ over escalation in Ukraine

National Security Council spokesperson Kirby says “ball is in Hamas’s court” on peace deal with Israel

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

IAEA Meets Amid New Fears of Iran’s Path to Nuclear Weapon.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is holding its Board of Governors meeting this week, just days after a confidential report from the agency said that Iran is closer than ever to producing a nuclear weapon.  Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, spoke to The Cipher Brief about the IAEA report, its potential impact, implications for U.S. policy, and what to watch for from Tehran.  He suggested a possible paradox in Iran's thinking: that its interests may be better served by being close to obtaining a nuclear weapon rather than actually having one.  The Cipher Brief

Russia Sanctions 101 — Via a Top White House Advisor.  Daleep Singh, President Biden’s National Security Advisor for International Economics, spoke at the Brookings Institution about whether sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are working or not.  Singh described as a “myth” that Russia is rapidly circumventing sanctions and export controls, noting that while sanctions are like “antibiotics” and Russia is building up “resistance,” the constant reorienting to do so is creating “inefficiency, uncertainty and complexity” in Russian supply chains.  Singh also noted that “sanctions diplomacy” manifested in trade ties and agreements that never happened are another success.  Singh said there is much work left to do to understand and improve the impact of sanctions, advocating for strategic investments and economic statecraft to challenge U.S. adversaries.  The Cipher Brief

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Gaza peace proposal hanging fire.  “The ball is in Hamas’s court,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Monday. The latest Gaza peace proposal is also in Israel’s court, and it’s not clear that the fractious governing coalition there will accept it.  Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday, “The claims that we have agreed to a ceasefire without our conditions being met are incorrect.”  In Washington, Kirby said the three-phase plan announced by President Joe  Biden on Friday  “accurately reflects that proposal that we worked with the Israelis on.” U.S. officials said that the proposal came out of discussions among the U.S., Israeli and Qatari negotiators. Hamas “ought to take the deal,” Kirby said. “This gives them what they’ve been looking for, which is a ceasefire and over time, through phases, the potential withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.”  It’s not clear when Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, in hiding, would convey a decision.  The plan calls for a first phase, during which Hamas would release elderly, sick, wounded and female hostages and Israel would release Palestinian convicts and detainees. Israeli forces would withdraw from population centers, and there would be a ceasefire, during which the warring parties would negotiate to free all remaining hostages and more Palestinian prisoners, to withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza and to observe a permanent cessation of hostilities. The third phase would involve reconstruction and a new government for Gaza. Netanyahu said Monday that he is open to a temporary cease-fire to release hostages but will not agree to a permanent ceasefire until Hamas has been crushed. Biden said that Hamas has been degraded to the point that it could not launch another major attack. The U.S. said Monday it wants the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution backing the Biden proposal, which would require at least nine of the Security Council’s 15 votes to pass, with no vetoes.  The Guardian  Wall Street Journal  Reuters   

Israel believes more than a third of Gaza hostages are deceased after four reported dead.According to a government tally, Israel believes more than a third of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza are dead. The tally shows 120 hostages remain in captivity, with 43 declared dead in absentia based on intelligence, videos, and forensic analysis - though some officials privately suggest the death toll could be higher. The Israeli military informed the families of four hostages on Monday that they are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas in Gaza. The IDF says intelligence indicates the four were killed together a few months ago during Hamas captivity in Khan Younis. The news increases pressure on Israel to accept a US-proposed three-phase deal endorsed by G7 leaders to secure a ceasefire and release of remaining hostages, though Israel's stance remains uncertain.  Reuters CNN

No date set for Netanyahu's address to U.S. Congress, Israel says. Reports emerged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would address a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress on June 13, coinciding with President Joe Biden's attendance at the G7 summit in Italy. However, Netanyahu's office and congressional sources stated that no date has been set for the planned address. The Israeli Prime Minister's office clarified it would not take place on June 13 due to a Jewish holiday, contradicting the initial reports. The potential speech comes amid tensions between Netanyahu and Biden over Israel's military actions in Gaza.  Reuters

UN experts urge all countries to recognise Palestinian statehood.A group of United Nations experts calls on all countries to recognize a Palestinian state, saying it is a precondition for lasting peace in the Middle East and the only agreed path to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This call comes less than a week after Spain, Ireland, and Norway officially recognized a Palestinian state. The experts, including the UN Special Rapporteur on Palestinian human rights, urged an immediate Gaza ceasefire and said a two-state solution remains the only internationally agreed way to end cycles of violence between Palestine and Israel.Reuters

Yemen's Houthis say they targeted 'military site' in Israel's port city Eilat.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they targeted a military site in the Israeli port city of Eilat with a new type of ballistic missile called "Palestine" on Monday. The Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree stated the operation using the newly unveiled missile achieved its objective against the site in Israel. The Houthi militia, which controls parts of Yemen and is aligned with Iran, has carried out attacks on ships off Yemen's coast in recent months, claiming solidarity with Palestinians fighting against Israel in Gaza.  Reuters

Wildfires sparked by Hezbollah rockets spread through northern Israel.Large wildfires broke out across northern Israel on Monday, sparked by rockets launched from Lebanon by the militant group Hezbollah amid escalating fighting between the two sides. Many residents near the Lebanon border had already evacuated months ago as tensions rose. The Israeli military deployed equipment and soldiers to help contain the rapidly spreading flames, fanned by hot, dry weather conditions. While some houses caught fire according to local media, the military stated it had gained control over the fire locations and no human lives were at risk, though six reservists suffered light injuries. Israeli authorities reported the fires had burned hundreds of acres, with firefighters working overnight to protect towns like Kiryat Shmona as police closed roads and ordered remaining residents to evacuate.  Reuters Reuters

Palestinian officials apply to join South Africa’s case at top UN court accusing Israel of genocide.Palestinian officials have applied to join South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza through its ongoing military operation aimed at "wiping out Palestinian society." The request alleges Israel is violating the court's orders by impeding humanitarian aid and continuing its offensive, resulting in widespread destruction and starvation in Gaza. It states the Palestinians are directly affected by South Africa's genocide case against Israel over the military assault, which Gaza’s Health Ministry says has killed over 36,000 Palestinians. If granted, Palestinian representatives could address the court as the long-running case proceeds to determine if Israel has breached the genocide convention through its Gaza offensive.  Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia warns U.S. of ‘fatal consequences’ over escalation in Ukraine.The Kremlin on Monday warned the U.S. of "fatal consequences" if Ukraine uses U.S.-supplied weapons to attack Russia. “I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. "For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive.” The statement follows the Biden administration’s approval last week for Ukraine to use some U.S. weapons against targets in Russia near Ukraine’s borders. "Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 29. Politico Reuters

Swiss parliament rejects 5 billion Swiss franc aid package for Ukraine.On Monday, Switzerland's upper house of parliament rejected a 5 billion Swiss franc ($5.58 billion) aid package for Ukraine, citing borrowing restrictions. The broader 15 billion franc package, which included additional military funding, was voted down 28 to 15. The plan's defeat, anticipated for weeks, was opposed mainly by right-wing legislators due to a "debt brake" provision. The package aimed to support Ukraine's infrastructure amid the Russian war and was backed by a parliamentary committee in April. Despite Western pressure, Swiss right-wing nationalists advocate for strict neutrality. The rejection occurred two weeks before a high-level summit on peace in Ukraine.Reuters

U.S. Vice President Harris to attend Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland.Vice President Kamala Harris will represent the U.S. at a Swiss-organized global peace summit on Ukraine on June 15 in Lucerne. The event, promoted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, aims to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. President Joe Biden will be at a campaign fundraiser in Los Angeles during the summit. Harris will emphasize the Biden-Harris administration's commitment to Ukraine amid Russia’s war. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will join her. Asked Monday if the president was sending the wrong message globally by forgoing the peace summit to attend a glitzy California fundraiser, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said “there hasn’t been any single leader around the world who has supported Ukraine more and more stridently than Joe Biden.’’ White House Associated Press  Kyiv Independent

China responds to Zelensky's accusation of interference in global peace summit. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Monday refuted President Volodymyr Zelensky's accusation that China is trying to sabotage the upcoming global peace summit in Switzerland. Mao asserted that China has not fueled Russia's war in Ukraine, attaches great importance to its relations with Ukraine, and remains its largest trading partner. She said China's position on the peace conference is very "open and transparent.” China reportedly declined an invitation to the summit due to unmet terms, including Russia’s exclusion. Zelensky said over 100 countries and organizations will attend. Kyiv Independent Reuters Al Jazeera

Russian legal foundation working in EU is actually 'Kremlin influence operation.'Leaked documents reveal that Pravfond, a Russian state-backed legal defense foundation, is a Kremlin-influenced operation active in 48 countries. Pravfond has financed propaganda websites, legal defenses for convicted individuals like arms trafficker Viktor Bout and assassin Vadim Krasikov, and employed former intelligence officers. The foundation has spent millions of euros on propaganda and legal campaigns, raising national security concerns in Europe. Pravfond's activities include funding websites that promote Russian interests and criticize Ukraine. Founded in 2012, Pravfond is supported by the Russian government and is linked to Russian intelligence operations, recruiting collaborators abroad and undermining Ukraine's sovereignty.The Guardian Kyiv Independent 

Russia intercepts 20 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region.Russian air defense intercepted 20 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region, regional Governor Alexei Smironov said Monday. Ukrainian forces attacked four villages with drones and helicopters, causing no injuries. Several airborne targets were downed in the Belgorod region. Ukraine's attacks on Russian border regions have angered the Kremlin, prompting Russian troops to push into the northern Kharkiv region to form a buffer zone. The Russian military claims to have captured 12 villages, but Ukraine asserts control over 70% of Vovchansk, a town three miles inside the Ukrainian border. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 3, 2024.Ukrainian forces likely used HIMARS to strike a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast on June 1 or 2. China and Russia reportedly disagree over the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Vladimir Putin asked Xi Jinping to "snub" the Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland. Russian forces are abusing Ukrainian POWs, violating the Geneva Convention. Russia is increasing military, political, and economic ties with African states. The Russian military is forcibly sending servicemembers who refused to fight to the front in Ukraine.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance north of Kharkiv city in the Lyptsi direction. Ukrainian forces recently regained limited positions within Vovchansk, a town three miles inside the border. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have advanced along the M-30 highway west of Netaylove (west of Avdiivka), approaching Karlivka. Russian forces made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast.Institute for the Study of War

Russian missile attack on Ukraine's Dnipro injures seven people, including two children. A Russian missile attack on the central city of Dnipro injured seven people, including two children, and damaged civilian infrastructure early Tuesday, local authorities said. The Ukrainian air force said it shot down two Iskander-K cruise missiles over the region. The missile debris damaged civilian infrastructure, causing a fire and injuring residents, according to Serhiy Lysak, the regional governor. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russian troops' wives stage rare protest in Moscow, demand defense minister return men from the front. Agroup of 18 Russian women protested Monday outside the Defense Ministry in Moscow, demanding the return of mobilized soldiers from Ukraine. The group, including wives and relatives of soldiers, called for Defense Minister Andrei Belousov to limit soldiers' active duty duration. These protests highlight the frustration among soldiers' families as the conflict continues into its third year. President Putin's 2022 mobilization of 300,000 reservists remains controversial, with no ministry officials responding to the protest. The Kremlin asserts the military operation has broad public support.Reuters Associated Press 

Italy to send second air defense system to Ukraine, foreign minister says.Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed on Monday, responding to Kyiv's request for more protection against Russian missile attacks. This Franco-Italian system can intercept ballistic missiles and is part of Italy's ninth support package for Ukraine since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. The exact delivery date remains unspecified. Reuters Kyiv Independent

UN monitor says Russia recognizes it would be unsafe now to restart Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.Russia may eventually restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant but agrees with international monitors that it is now impractical and potentially dangerous, United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said Monday. During a meeting with Rosatom's director, Grossi learned that Russia intends to use the plant but recognizes the risks due to military operations and an unstable power supply. The plant, seized by Russia in 2022, requires stable power and safe conditions to restart. The International Atomic Energy Association has repeatedly warned of the plant's precarious safety situation amid fears of a nuclear catastrophe.Associated Press Kyiv Independent

The Americas

Biden’s science adviser has the point for the new hard line on China. Arati Prabhakar, the White House’s top technology official, once specialized in semiconductor research.  Now she’s leading the largest industrial policy push in decades: the Biden administration’s initiative to help the U.S. protect its lead over China in advanced computer chips.  Washington Post 

Haitian Prime Minister Conille says leaders are putting aside differences. Haiti's Interim Prime Minister Conille said members of the new administration are putting aside their differences to work for the nation's interests amid a devastating crisis fueled by gang wars. Conille, formerly with UNICEF, said the transition council gave instruction that there is no time to lose in addressing the gang violence, which has displaced hundreds of thousands, closed ports cutting off supplies, and intensified a food crisis leaving millions hungry.  While acknowledging the difficulties ahead, Conille noted an encouraging momentum and disposition among council members from various political groups to move forward, with their next tasks being choosing a new cabinet and paving the way for the delayed deployment of Kenyan police to help battle the gangs.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Philippines says troops held weapons but did not point at Chinese coast guard.China’s state CCTV reported that at least two Filipino military personnel stationed on the Sierra Madre, a grounded warship on Second Thomas Shoal, pointed guns towards nearby Chinese coast guard boats.  Philippine military officials denied this, saying that Philippine troops on the warship held their weapons but did not point them at the Chinese coast guard vessels.  Romeo Brawner, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said the troops acted “in preparation for self-defense” and called the China Coast Guard’s actions “provocative.”  He added the Philippines has the “right to defend ourselves” and reasserted the country’s sovereignty in the area.  China’s foreign ministry described the Philippine troops’ actions as “illegal.”  Reuters Nikkei Asia South China Morning Post

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin in Cambodia.US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Cambodia on Tuesday in an effort to reset strained ties with the China-allied nation, amid US concerns over Beijing's billions in infrastructure investments and upgrades to a Cambodian naval base that could boost China's influence in the Gulf of Thailand. Austin met with outgoing leader Hun Sen and new Prime Minister Hun Manet, a West Point graduate like himself, to explore deepening the bilateral defense relationship and strengthening regional stability. The visit signifies both sides are willing to overcome rigid policies restricting cooperation through renewed dialogue, according to an analyst. It comes after Cambodia's largest military drills with China but scrapping of joint US exercises, as Washington conveys the region's importance to Beijing while voicing human rights criticisms. Hun Sen urged rebuilding trust to improve relations between the two countries.Reuters Barron's

Taiwan’s military to conduct live-fire drills repulsing simulated Chinese attack. The Taiwanese military will conduct a series of live-fire drills along its coast and on Matsu island, this month, simulating counterattacks on Chinese amphibious and naval attacks.  The Taiwanese exercises are a response to war games staged two weeks ago around Taiwan by China’s Peoples Liberation Army,  as “punishment” for a speech by new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te seeking “independence” from China. Beijing’s new defense minister, Dong Jun, said Sunday that “whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to pieces and invite their destruction.” South China Morning Post 

Pakistan court annuls former Prime Minister Khan’s conviction.  An Islamabad court has annulled the sentence of former Pakistani Prime Minister Khan and former Foreign Minister Qureshi. Last January, the pair were sentenced to 10 years in prison for leaking a diplomatic cable that Khan contended was proof that his removal from power in April 2022 was a conspiracy by his political opponents.  The court found Khan guilty of misusing a cable sent by a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S.  Al Jazeera 

South Korea announces resumption of all military activities along demarcation line. South Korea announced it will resume all military activities along the border with North Korea and the North West Islands after suspending an inter-Korean military agreement. The move comes in response to North Korea sending hundreds of balloons carrying trash over the border, which South Korea deemed a serious threat to public safety and property. A defense ministry official stated South Korea will take necessary measures to protect its people from such provocations by North Korea. The suspended 2018 agreement had called for both sides to cease hostile acts near the border, including military drills, but was effectively nullified last year when Pyongyang declared it was no longer bound by the deal amid rising tensions. Reuters 

South Korea to halt key military deal with North Korea after balloon-borne insults. South Korea is set to suspend a 2018 military agreement with North Korea, which sent balloons carrying trash over the border. The National Security Council of South Korea said Monday that it would present a plan to the cabinet to fully suspend the deal. North Korea sent hundreds of balloons carrying trash  and animal feces across the border.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who has emerged as a spokesperson for Pyongyang, said  North Koreans were simply exercising their freedom of expression. Al Jazeera Associated Press

South Korea to seek U.N. Security Council  meeting on North Korea rights abuses. South Korea plans to convene a United Nations Security Council meeting on human rights abuses in North Korea, Seoul's U.N. ambassador said Monday. The 15-member council last met on the issue in August 2023. China opposed it on grounds  the council should not discuss human rights issues but did not try to block the meeting. Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Modi projected to win third term.Indian Prime Minister Modi's alliance appeared headed for a majority  in the general election Tuesday. Exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party would win, with its National Democratic Alliance receiving a two-thirds majority. Reuters Associated Press 

Security tight in Hong Kong for 35th anniversary of Tiananmen Square crackdown.  China stepped up security on the 35th anniversary of the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square. An estimated 180,000 troops and armed police rolled in with tanks and armored vehicles and fired into crowds heading to Tiananmen Square. Hundreds, if not thousands were killed in a police and military operation that began June 3, 1989. The truth remains suppressed.On Monday, police also briefly detained a performance artist on a street of Causeway Bay, a busy Hong Kong shopping district, close to the park that held the vigil.South China Morning Post Associated Press

Europe

Senior US Treasury official heads to Rome for talks on debt, Russian assets. U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh will meet with Italian officials in Rome this week to discuss Russia's frozen assets and participate in a Vatican-led event on developing country debt issues. This visit precedes the G7 summit, where leaders aim to agree on a plan to monetize $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. The U.S. proposes a loan backed by these assets, potentially providing Kyiv $50 billion. Shambaugh will also address food security and high debt burdens in developing countries, urging coordinated efforts for debt relief.Reuters 

NATO has 2-3 years to make ready for restored Russian army, warns Norwegian general. Top Norwegian General Eirik Kristoffersen cautioned that NATO has only two to three years to prepare before Russia regains the capability to launch a conventional assault on the alliance. This is part of a series of warnings from Western leaders about the increasing threat from Russia, as well as Europe's current lack of readiness. Kristoffersen believes that Russia's industrial base is recovering faster than expected, reducing the timeline for its reconstitution of offensive capabilities. This gives NATO a short window to rebuild its forces and stocks while continuing to support Ukraine. Norway, a NATO member since 1949, has increased its defense spending due to Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, and aims to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending threshold by 2024, and increase to 2.7% by 2030. Kristoffersen emphasized the need to speed up efforts to meet NATO's new command and force structure requirements within the next two to three years. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Georgia’s divisive ‘foreign agents’ bill signed into law.On Monday, the speaker of Georgia’s parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, signed the controversial “foreign agents” bill into law despite widespread protests and a veto by President Salome Zourabichvili. The bill mandates that media and NGOs receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad register as foreign agents, a move critics say mimics Russian laws and threatens Georgia's EU aspirations. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed criticisms as emotional. The opposition fears the law will push Georgia closer to Russia. The EU and U.S. have expressed concerns, with the EU noting it hinders Georgia's progress toward membership.France 24 Al Jazeera Euronews

Poland detains 18 people on suspicions of planning hostile acts, sabotage on behalf of Russia, Belarus.Polish Interior Minister Siemoniak revealed Monday that Poland has arrested 18 individuals over the past six months for alleged hostile activities and sabotage on behalf of Russia and Belarus, including a plot to assassinate the Ukrainian president. Ten of the arrested were involved in planning acts of sabotage like arson, and those detained include Polish, Belarusian, and Ukrainian nationals. A Polish citizen arrested in April was allegedly preparing to spy for Russia and was involved in a plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Additionally, a Ukrainian and a Belarusian man went on trial for participating in a Russian espionage ring, preparing railway sabotage, and monitoring routes used for weapon and aid transport to Ukraine. They confessed to these charges, which also included studying the security of Baltic Sea ports. Siemoniak stated that these acts are part of a larger plan involving cyberattacks, driving migrants from Belarus into Poland, and threatening Poland's security. The minister emphasized that these activities are driven by Russia and endanger Polish citizens' lives, health, and property. Associated Press

German tanks and troops in Lithuania have one goal: scare off Russia.Germany will deploy  5,000 soldiers to Lithuania by 2027, marking its first full-time foreign troop deployment since World War III. This move, part of the Zeitenwende initiative, aims to strengthen NATO's presence near Russia and Belarus. "Germany stands by its word," General Carsten Breuer, the German army’s chief inspector, said. "We will defend every centimeter of NATO territory." The deployment involves infrastructure development in Lithuania, funded by Germany and Lithuania. This effort underscores Germany's focus on national and alliance defense, adapting its military strategy in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine."The world is different than it was before February 24, 2022," Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. "For us as the Bundeswehr, that means that the mission has changed; national and alliance defense is the focus."Politico 

German army to boost Rheinmetall artillery shell order by 200,000, document shows.The German army plans to order an additional 200,000 155mm artillery shells worth around €880 million ($960 million) from defense contractor Rheinmetall, on top of an existing €1.2 billion deal for several hundred thousand shells and related equipment. The new order aims to replenish the army's stockpiles as Germany supplies artillery ammunition to Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion.  As Western nations bolster their militaries and restock after arming Kyiv, Rheinmetall has seen a surge in orders, with its market value more than quadrupling since the Ukraine war began. Germany's move also ensures Rheinmetall can establish a new production line for the shells in Unterluess.  Reuters

Suspect detained in Romania after throwing petrol bomb outside Israeli embassy. A 34-year-old Syrian national was detained by Romanian authorities on Monday after allegedly throwing a Molotov cocktail at the entrance of the Israeli Embassy in Bucharest, causing a small fire but no casualties. The suspect, apprehended by antiterrorism officers before police arrived, also allegedly attempted to set himself on fire in what local police described as an incident motivated by personal grievances rather than the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. The Israeli ambassador condemned the attack by the "violent extremist" as an act of terrorism, thanking Romanian security forces for their swift response while assuring that embassy personnel are safe. Investigations are underway to establish the full circumstances surrounding the firebomb attack on the diplomatic mission. Reuters Associated Press

Middle East

China maintains its stance on disputed Gulf islands despite Iran's anger.Despite Iran's protest, China has maintained its stance on three disputed Gulf islands. Beijing supports efforts by the United Arab Emirates to resolve the issue peacefully, which has angered Tehran, leading to the Iranian foreign ministry to summon the Chinese ambassador. China reiterated its call for dialogue between Iran and the UAE to settle their differences, emphasizing the consistency of its position. This dispute involves the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa islands, controlled by Iran since 1971. China angered Iran in December 2022 when it issued a joint statement with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that called for efforts to resolve the issue of the three islands. Reuters

European officials submit draft resolution to IAEA over traces of uranium found at undeclared sites in Iran.European powers on Monday submitted a draft resolution to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, urging Iran to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites and to reverse its barring of top inspectors. The draft follows a resolution from 18 months ago and calls for Iran's cooperation, including allowing IAEA samples. Despite U.S. concerns about potential escalation, the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) pushed for this resolution, citing Iran's advancing nuclear program. If Iran fails to cooperate, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi may issue a comprehensive report, increasing pressure on Tehran.Reuters 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reappoints Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly to form a new government.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Monday reappointed Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly to form a new government amid economic and security challenges, including Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza. Madbouly, prime minister since 2018, is tasked with creating a cabinet capable of addressing national and international issues, combating terrorism, and boosting the economy. This move comes as Egypt faces high inflation and a foreign exchange shortage. Cairo continues efforts to mediate between Israel and Hamas while providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Al Jazeera

Iraq detains at least 12 after latest attack on Baghdad KFC.Iraqi security forces on Monday detained at least 12 people and wounded three with live fire while quelling rioters attacking a KFC in Baghdad's Palestine Street. This marks the third attack on the restaurant in just over a week, following a call from a Kataib Hezbollah leader to boycott U.S. brands. Despite significant damage, there were no injuries to staff or customers. The KFC is operated by Americana Group, which did not comment on the incident. The attacks occur amid broader tensions, including anti-Western sentiment fueled by the Israel-Hamas conflict.Reuters

Africa

Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov in West Africa.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Guinea on June 3 as part of his ongoing visits to West Africa, a region where some countries have shifted alliances towards Moscow amid rising discontent with traditional allies like France and the United States, as well as recent military coups. Lavrov's trip underscores Russia's efforts to garner support or neutrality from African nations amidst its invasion of Ukraine.  Lavrov met with the foreign minister of military-ruled Guinea.  He was also expected in the Republic of Congo to meet President Sassou Nguesso.Kyiv Independent Politico

Nigeria loses electricity and major airports close as unions seek higher wages amid record inflation.Nigeria’s largest labor unions began an indefinite strike on Monday, halting electricity and closing major airports to demand a salary increase amid a severe cost of living crisis. President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, including ending fuel subsidies, have caused record-high inflation. Workers shut down the national electricity grid and blocked efforts to restore power. Government offices, including airports, were also affected. The unions, representing hundreds of thousands of workers, seek to raise the monthly minimum wage from $20 to nearly $336, a move the government says would destabilize the economy.  The government offers $40. Tinubu’s government also devalued the naira currency to encourage foreign investment, further increasing prices of basic commodities in the import-dependent country of more than 210 million people. Associated Press The Guardian Reuters Al Jazeera 

South Africa’s ANC party begins coalition talks. The African National Congress (ANC), facing its worst election result, has begun coalition talks to form a stable government. President Cyril Ramaphosa is considering a unity government, potentially including the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party. The ANC won just over 40% of the vote, necessitating a coalition. Internal opposition exists against partnering with the DA, a pro-business party. Alternatives include an alliance with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The rand fell following the election, and rating agencies warn that coalition governments could bring political and policy uncertainty, affecting economic reforms and stability.Financial Times

South Korea will cooperate with African nations on mineral trade. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday that his country will step up cooperation with African nations to assure a stable supply of critical minerals and promote economic partnerships and trade. Hosting a summit with the leaders of 48 African countries, Yoon said South Korea will send $10 billion to African partners over the next six years. He pledged $14 billion in export financing to promote trade and investment for South Korean companies in African countries.  Africa has 30 percent of the world's reserves of critical minerals including chrome, cobalt and manganese.  Reuters Associated Press

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

US cites AI deepfakes as reason to keep Biden recording with special counsel Hur secret. The U.S. Department of Justice is making an unusual legal argument to prevent the public release of an audio recording of President Joe Biden's interview with special counsel Robert Hur about the handling of classified documents. In a late Friday filing, the DOJ cited the risk of AI-generated deepfakes as one reason for refusing to disclose the audio, arguing that malicious actors could manipulate or create entirely fabricated audio files that could be widely spread as authentic recordings. This novel argument about the threat of AI disinformation from releasing government materials sets up potential future legal battles balancing transparency against preventing misinformation, as the DOJ claims publicly available deepfake technology amplifies concerns about doctored audio circulating if the Biden interview recording is released. The Guardian

DIU, Air Force select four firms to prototype modular testing drone.The U.S. Defense Department has selected Anduril Industries, Integrated Solutions for Systems Inc., Leidos Dynetics, and Zone 5 Technologies to develop prototypes of a modular, affordable drone called the Enterprise Test Vehicle (ETV). The ETV is intended to be an open architecture system that can rapidly integrate and test new payloads, sensors and technologies at high production rates and low costs using commercial off-the-shelf components. After flight demonstrations later this year, at least one prototype will be further developed for potential large-scale manufacturing as part of the Pentagon's Replicator program. The companies aim to deliver prototypes that balance affordability with capability as a basis for producing future unmanned aircraft in years rather than decades to address emerging threats.Defense News 

Resilience isn't enough, NATO must be 'proactive' for cyberdefense, warns official. Christian-Marc Lifländer, the head of NATO's cyber and hybrid policy section, warned that NATO allies need to allow their militaries to take a more proactive approach in cyberspace, rather than just focusing on resilience, to ensure the alliance can effectively deploy forces without disruption from cyberattacks in a conflict. He argued that resilience alone is failing to shape adversaries' behavior, and called for a "proactive element" where the military is integrated from the start to understand and manage cyber risks to critical operations like logistics. This aligns with calls from researchers for NATO to adopt policies optimizing allies' collective cyber capabilities through a more offensive operational posture to constrain threats like Russia in the contested cyber domain. However, aligning NATO's 32 members on such an approach will be challenging given past differences over offensive cyber operations.  The Record

Germany's main opposition party hit by ‘serious’ cyberattack. Germany's leading opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was hit by a large-scale and "serious" cyberattack over the weekend, prompting authorities to ramp up protective measures against digital threats. The German Interior Ministry stated it is working intensively to investigate and mitigate the "very professional" attack, the perpetrators of which remain unknown. The CDU took down parts of its IT infrastructure as a precaution, while the incident heightens concerns ahead of European Parliament elections following a recent breach attributed to Russian hackers against Germany's Social Democratic Party. Authorities view the attack on the CDU, which one party member called a threat to its interests, with grave seriousness amid an observed increase in Russian-linked cyberattacks targeting German companies, infrastructure and institutions. The Record 

Cyberattack on telecom giant Frontier claimed by RansomHub. The ransomware gang RansomHub has claimed responsibility for an April cyberattack on telecommunications company Frontier Communications, posting sensitive data allegedly stolen from over 2 million people to its leak site. RansomHub stated it spent months attempting to extort Frontier without response before the leak. While Frontier reported an April cyber incident involving unauthorized access and data theft to U.S. regulators, it did not confirm RansomHub's involvement. The rapidly emerging RansomHub group has quickly taken credit for several other high-profile ransomware attacks this year, including incidents involving potential healthcare data breaches impacting millions of Americans. Security experts view RansomHub's rise as exemplifying the fluid nature of ransomware operations, with affiliates moving between different gangs while selling stolen data and access on shady cybercrime forums.  The Record

Live Nation confirms Ticketmaster breach after hackers hawk stolen info of 560 million. Entertainment giant Live Nation confirmed a data breach impacting its Ticketmaster subsidiary in a regulatory filing, stating unauthorized activity was discovered on May 20 in a third-party cloud database containing user information that was then sold on the dark web by the hacker group ShinyHunters starting May 27. The 1.3TB database allegedly contains details on 560 million Ticketmaster users including names, addresses, emails, phone numbers, event data, orders, and partial credit card information. Live Nation said it notified law enforcement and is working to mitigate risks, though it does not expect a material business impact. The breach appears related to a credential-stealing campaign targeting Snowflake cloud storage customers that the company confirmed and is investigating with cybersecurity firms. ShinyHunters, known for selling sensitive data from major hacks, claimed to have multiple buyers for the Ticketmaster information amid scrutiny over the company's business practices.  The Record

Microsoft warns of misinformation campaigns by Pro-Russian groups ahead of 2024 Paris Olympics. Microsoft research published Monday reveals pro-Russian influence groups are spreading disinformation and fomenting fears about potential terrorist attacks and violence at the 2024 Paris Olympics, using traditional techniques blended with AI like a fake Netflix documentary featuring an AI-generated Tom Cruise voiceover. The campaign denigrates France, President Macron, and the IOC amid longstanding Russian cyber aggression against the Olympics stemming from conflicts with the committee. While currently focused on French audiences, Microsoft warns the groups may expand to other languages, increase AI use, deploy bots and fake accounts to amplify narratives, and even stage real-world provocations near venues to undermine security and sow fear. The disinformation aligns with French warnings of unprecedented cyber threats to the Games as Russia's retaliation over bans on its athletes likely escalates.  Cyberscoop

China's Chang'e-6 probe lifts off from far side of moon. China announced that its Chang'e-6 lunar probe successfully unfurled the country's red and gold flag on the far side of the moon before the ascender module lifted off to return to Earth with rock and soil samples. The China National Space Administration hailed the mission as a success, stating the samples were collected and stowed as planned for return to Inner Mongolia. As part of its ambitious lunar exploration program aimed at putting a person on the moon by 2030, China highlighted the milestone of planting its flag on the far side of the moon, an unprecedented feat that showcases its significant advances in space technology and capabilities to compete with other major space powers like the United States.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Kasia Kucharski, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Leighton Durham, Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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