Report for Tuesday, June 18, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Russia, Ukraine pour troops into contested Kharkiv region

Putin promises trade, security agreements with North Korea prior to visit

A record 23 NATO allies to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024, says Stoltenberg

US reaffirms obligation to defend the Philippines following clash with China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

EXPERT ANALYSIS: Why is Crimea the one place where Ukraine is Winning?  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

White House envoy warns Israeli leaders that escalating Hezbollah conflict could provoke attack from Iran. U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein, in Israel Monday, warned Israeli leaders that escalating the conflict with Hezbollah could lead to a ferocious Iranian and Hezbollah counter-attack that could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome and other defense systems. Hochstein took this message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid and former minister Benny Gantz, according to Haaretz. Hochstein’s visit took place on the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, which caused a pause in the cross-border fire between Hezbollah and Israel.  “The message to Israel is, don’t do anything in the North,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said of Hochstein’s visit.  “We don’t want to see escalation at all in the North. We’ve made that clear to the government of Israel directly.”  According to Israeli media, Hochstein told the Israelis that a cease-fire with Hezbollah could be attained only after an official cease-fire is declared in the Gaza war.  After meeting Hochstein, Lapid issued a statement urging the Israeli military to “distance Hezbollah from the border either through a diplomatic arrangement or through military action” so Israelis living near the border with Lebanon can return to their homes. Hezbollah had stepped up attacks against Israel in the past week after an Israeli air strike killed one of its top commanders in southern Lebanon. Hochstein is due to travel to Beirut Tuesday to ask Lebanese leaders to get his no-escalation message to Hezbollah.  Haaretz Al Jazeera Jerusalem Post   

IDF knew of Hamas's kidnapping plan before October 7 attack - report.   The Israeli Defense Forces and Israeli intelligence systems had detailed knowledge of Hamas's plan to breach the Gaza border and take 200 to 250 hostages weeks before the October 7 massacre, Kan News, Israel’s public broadcast service reported Monday.  Kan News cited an internal Israeli military document, entitled "Detailed End-to-End Raid Training," and distributed on September 19, 2023, that described an exercise that Hamas's elite units were carrying out to prepare for an attack on Israel.  It revealed explicit, chilling details about a Hamas exercise to raid military posts and kibbutzim and kidnap soldiers and civilians. Israeli military and intelligence leaders wrongly assumed Hamas wouldn’t dare carry out such an attack.  "Israeli intelligence officials who monitored the [Hamas] exercise detailed in the document the next steps after breaching into Israel and taking over the posts,” Kan News reported, “determining that the instruction is to hand over the captured soldiers to the company commanders. The expected number of hostages, it states, is between 200 and 250 people." Apparently Israeli leaders assumed, wrongly, that Hamas could not breach the Gaza border, thanks to Israel’s excellent intelligence and new security barrier. That barrier failed during the Hamas attack, and many other assumptions prove incorrect. The Jerusalem Post reported that investigators are expected to report their findings to the IDF Chief of Staff in the coming weeks. Jerusalem Post 

Two key Congressional Democrats approve major arms sale to Israel.   After holding up a major arms sale to Israel for months, Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (N.Y.), top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Sen. Ben Cardin (Md.), top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have signed off on the sale of 50 F-15 fighter jets worth more than $18 billion to Israel.  Meeks and Cardin have been under intense pressure from the Biden administration and pro-Israel advocates to let the sale move forward, the Washington Post reported Monday.  The two top Republicans on the committees — Sen. James E. Risch of Idaho and Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas — signed off on the sale months ago.  Earlier this year, Meeks said he would hold up the arms package unless the administration assured him that the warplanes and munitions would not be used in Gaza to violate humanitarian standards. The F-15s are not scheduled to arrive in Israel for years.  The arms package also includes air-to-air missiles and Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which convert unguided bombs with precision guidance. Cardin, though a staunch supporter of Israel, sided with Meeks. Washington Post   

Harris meets former Israeli hostage sexually assaulted by Hamas captors.   Vice President Kamala Harris met Monday with an Israeli lawyer who has described being sexually assaulted while held hostage in Gaza.  Harris hosted an event highlighting efforts to reduce conflict-related sexual violence around the world and said she’d spoken with Amit Soussana, taken hostage Oct. 7 and freed during a November ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.  “Hamas committed rape and gang rape at the Nova music festival,” the vice president said, “And women’s bodies were found naked from the waist down, hands tied behind their back and shot in the head.”  Associated Press

Gaza obliterates entire Palestinian families.   An Associated Press investigation traced whole Palestinian families wiped out by Israeli bombardment.   The AP geolocated and analyzed 10 strikes; consulted with weapons investigators; open data-analysts and legal experts; and drew on data by Airwars, a London-based conflict monitor.  The investigation identified at least 60 Gaza families that lost 25 members or more in strikes during the first three months of the war.   Associated Press   Associated Press 

U.K. stopped approving most arms exports to Israel soon after Gaza war started. The U.K. approval of arms export licenses to Israel dropped sharply after the Gaza war began, with the dollar value falling by more than 95 percent, to $1.09 million. By contrast, in 2022, the U.K. licensed $25 million worth of arms destined for Israel.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia, Ukraine pour troops into contested Kharkiv region. Fighting intensifies in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region as both sides pour in troops and equipment. Russian official Vitaly Ganchev said Monday that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Vovchansk, five kilometers inside the border, and Lyptsy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces are gradually pushing out the occupiers, and the situation will improve with incoming Western equipment, including U.S.-made F-16 jets. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he sent troops into the region on May 10 to create a buffer zone. Reuters

Rare Ukrainian Smart Bomb Strikes Pound, Cut Off Russian Troops. Ukrainian forces have used NATO-standard smart bombs to isolate and strike Russian troops near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Reports confirm at least eight precision-guided munitions hit Russian positions, possibly cutting off up to 400 soldiers. The munitions, identified as GBU-39B and possibly ASSM HAMMER or JDAMS bombs, were deployed in a rare shift from typical Ukrainian Air Force tactics. Intense fighting also continues around the Vovchansk Aggregate Factory, with Ukrainian counterattacks capturing some Russian troops. Both sides have acknowledged heavy fighting, though official Russian sources downplay the effectiveness of Ukrainian air strikes. Kyiv Post

Time will play in Ukraine's favor once F-16s and more Western aid arrive, Syrskyi says. With the arrival of Western military aid, including F-16 fighter jets, Ukraine's chances on the battlefield will improve, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. He expects the first F-16s this summer, bolstering Ukraine's air defense. Meanwhile, Russian forces are intensifying attacks in the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and Vremivka sectors to exhaust Ukrainian troops and disrupt reserve training. Heavy fighting is ongoing in multiple regions, including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and near the Dnipro River. Recent Ukrainian attacks on Crimea aim to weaken Russian air defenses before the F-16s arrive, reducing threats to Ukrainian aviation. Kyiv Independent 

Moscow confirms Ukraine shot down A-50 aircraft. The Russian Investigative Committee confirmed that Ukraine shot down a rare Russian A-50 early warning and control aircraft over the Azov Sea in February, killing 10 crew members. This action, executed by Ukraine's military intelligence and Air Force, dealt a blow to Russia's military capabilities. The A-50, critical for detecting air defense systems and coordinating targets, is one of fewer than 10 in Russia's fleet. Kyiv Independent 

Blast Shelters and Radar Jamming: A Russian City Adapts to War. In Belgorod, a Russian city 25 miles from the Ukrainian border, residents have adapted to frequent air raid sirens and shelling. Concrete shelters around bus stops and public spaces provide protection. Residents feel neglected by Moscow as the city with 340,000 residents, once closely connected to Ukraine, feels the war’s impact daily. Authorities say at least 190 people in the region have been killed. Air raid sirens and explosions are common. While some residents have grown fatalistic, many take the risks seriously, seeking shelter during attacks. Belgorod’s central square is mostly empty, guarded by security forces. Despite increased defenses, including radar jamming devices and anti-drone nets on tractors, the threat from Ukrainian artillery and drones remains. A daycare worker said, “We urgently need peace talks.” New York Times 

One-Two Punch From the Skies Is a Massive Blow to Putin. Ukraine is set to receive U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and Swedish ASC 890 surveillance aircraft, boosting its air capabilities against Russia. These new planes will help counter Russia’s air force, support ground forces, and utilize advanced Western weaponry. Despite the aid, questions remain about usage restrictions, particularly regarding strikes on Russian territory. Daily Beast 

Ukrainian drones target industrial facilities in 3 Russian regions. Ukrainian "kamikaze" drones attacked military-related facilities in Russia's Belgorod, Voronezh, and Lipetsk oblasts on Monday, targeting the Novolipetsk metallurgical plant and a local tractor plant. Despite reports from Russian governors of no damage or casualties, explosions and air defense systems were heard. Previously, 70 drones attacked the Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast, which hosts Su-34 fighter jets, with damage still being assessed. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Ukraine’s naval drone success holds a huge lesson for the U.S. Navy. Max Boot argues that Ukraine’s use of naval drones to defeat Russia's Black Sea Fleet is a significant development in naval warfare, demonstrating the effectiveness of unmanned systems. Despite this, the U.S. Navy remains overly reliant on traditional manned warships and is slow to adopt drone technology. Boot emphasizes the need for the U.S. and its allies, like Taiwan and the Philippines, to reallocate budgets towards drones for defense against threats like China. He warns that conservative military organizations must adapt quickly to the changing nature of warfare to maintain strategic advantages. Washington Post 

Canada holds off on sending military trainers back to Ukraine. On Monday, Defense Minister Bill Blair said that Canada will not send military trainers back to Ukraine due to concerns among NATO allies. Despite a NATO summit discussing enhanced training missions, Blair believes current circumstances are unsuitable. Canada, having trained over 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers since 2015, moved its trainers to Britain and Poland after Russia's invasion. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 17, 2024. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated NATO might enhance its nuclear deterrence as member states discuss moving nuclear missiles to heightened readiness due to threats from Russia and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed four deputy defense ministers. A Russian state media outlet manipulated an International Atomic Energy Agency interview to blame Ukraine for strikes on the Kremlin-occupied Zaporyzhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The Kremlin confirmed Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War

Oil depots set ablaze in Russia's Rostov following drone strike. Several oil storage tanks caught fire early Tuesday after a drone attack in Azov, a town located on the Don River in Russia's Rostov region near the Ukraine border. Governor Vasily Golubev reported no casualties. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that the fire spread across 5,000 cubic meters, with several dozen firefighters and 21 pieces of equipment responding to the blaze. Reuters could not independently confirm the reports, and there was no immediate comment from Kyiv. Ukraine has previously stated that targeting Russian infrastructure is aimed at undermining Moscow's war effort. Reuters 

AMERICAS

Indian suspected in failed plot to kill Sikh separatist appears in court in Manhattan.   An Indian citizen accused of attempting to kill a Sikh separatist in New York pleaded not guilty in federal court in Manhattan Monday.  The FBI tracked down Nikhil Gupta to the Czech Republic, which arrested him in June 2023 and extradited him to New York on June 14.  Gupta was charged with murder for hire for plotting to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a dual U.S. and Canadian citizen who advocates an independent Sikh state. Gupta, 52, was held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.  Gupta’s lawyers have said he is a law-abiding businessman unjustly accused.  Federal prosecutors say a senior Indian government employee hired Gupta to arrange the assassination of Pannun.  The Washington Post  identified the employee as Vikram Yadav, an officer in India’s spy agency.  Pannun works as general counsel for the New York-based Sikhs for Justice, which campaigns for an independent Sikh state.  Washington Post    Justice Department  

FBI  postpones Congressional briefing on encryption.  The FBI postponed two Congressional briefings on “warrant-proof encryption” slated for this week, with no explanation.  The bureau promised to reschedule the briefing at a later date.  One Republican Hill staffer speculated to Politico that the issue is “politically awkward” for President Joe Biden’s administration. “That's ridiculous and quite an inferential leap based on the scheduling of a congressional staff briefing given the Department and Bureau’s strong and consistent stance on this issue," a Justice Department spokesperson said. Politico  

Russian warships leave Havana. A flotilla of Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, left Havana Monday after a five-day visit to Cuba for military exercises.  The submarine, a frigate, an oil tanker and a rescue tug exited from the port quietly. The fleet’s next destination is not known. The Canadian Liberal government Monday defended sending a Canadian navy patrol ship to Cuba Friday, two days after the Russian nuclear-powered submarine and a frigate arrived.  Canada and the U.S. said they were closely monitoring the Russian vessels.   Associated Press   Reuters 

U.S., Cyprus open dialogue, exhibit closest-ever ties.  Officials said Monday that the U.S. and Cyprus have achieved their highest level of relations, marked by the launch of a strategic dialogue covering defense, security, energy, crisis management, and counterterrorism. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed the deepening partnership, noting Cyprus's significance in the eastern Mediterranean region. Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos emphasized Cyprus’s role as a reliable partner in a turbulent region. Washington has engaged in similar strategic dialogues with 30 countries, including 13 E.U. member states, and Cyprus's contribution to the partnership includes the Cyprus-Gaza maritime corridor for humanitarian aid, overseen by U.S. and Israeli security. Additionally, a U.S.-funded center in Cyprus trains personnel on maritime safety. In recent years, the island has made a strategic shift towards the West and the U.S. after decades of close relations with Russia. Associated Press

India, U.S. pledge to strengthen defense, trade ties in first high-level U.S. visit since election. India and the U.S. have committed to enhancing defense and technology cooperation and removing barriers to strategic trade, following a meeting between their national security advisers on Monday. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is visiting New Delhi, marking the first visit by a high-ranking U.S. official since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent re-election. Sullivan met with his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval, to review the Initiative on Critical Emerging Technologies, launched in 2022. This initiative aims to foster collaboration in semiconductor production and AI development and was key in securing a deal between General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics to produce jet engines in India. Sullivan also met with Modi and Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaffirming the commitment to strengthening U.S.-India ties. On Tuesday, he is expected to meet with industry and business leaders. The recent, growing closeness between India and the U.S. is partly driven by mutual concerns over China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. Associated Press

Gunman shoots, kills recently-elected mayor Flores in southern Mexico’s Guerrero state. Salvador Villalva Flores, a recently elected Mexican mayor, was shot and killed on Monday in San Pedro las Playas, a beach town in the southern state of Guerrero. Villalva was fatally shot in the head while on a bus. He had been elected mayor of Copala just weeks ago, on June 2. No further details on the incident are known. Guerrero is notorious for its element of criminality, with cartels vying for territory and frequent violence. Data Civica, a human rights organization, reported that at least 34 political candidates have been killed across the nation around the June 2 election. Associated Press 

Security concerns push U.S. to pause inspections of some goods in Mexico’s Michoacan. A U.S. official on Monday announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has made the decision to pause inspections of avocados and mangoes in Mexico’s Michoacan state because of security concerns. The suspension will be lifted when the security issues have been resolved. Michoacan is Mexico's largest avocado exporter. Inspections in other Mexican states remain unaffected. This suspension follows a similar incident in February 2022 when inspections were paused after a U.S. safety inspector in Michoacan received a threat, though operations resumed after a week. Associated Press

Venezuela arrests four opposition activists as election nears.  The Venezuelan opposition coalition on Monday reported that four activists from the Popular Will and Vente Venezuela parties were detained recently, escalating tensions ahead of the July presidential election. Gabriel Gonzalez, Javier Cisneros, Jeancarlos Rivas, and Juan Iriarte were arrested between Friday and Monday by security forces, who accused them of conspiracy and instigating hate. Cisneros was later released on Monday evening. Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez condemned the detentions and vowed to report the government’s actions to international authorities. The attorney general's office has not commented on the detentions. These arrests, which add to a total of 37 activists detained this year, occur as Gonzalez gains favorable polling against President Nicolas Maduro. Maria Corina Machado, the opposition's initial primary winner now banned from holding office, supports Gonzalez and mentioned that six of her former campaign staffers are seeking asylum in the Argentine embassy. Reuters

Brazilian President urges quicker action against crime in the Amazon. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday demanded that his government expedite actions against organized crime in the Amazon, aiming to protect the world's largest tropical rainforest. Lula expressed frustration over the slow progress of the Amazon security plan (AMAS) and emphasized the need for swift implementation. The Amazon faces significant threats from criminal activities like drug trafficking and animal smuggling, as well as illegal logging and gold mining. Nations like Norway, the U.S., Germany, Britain, and Denmark have contributed to the Amazon Fund, which seeks to combat crimes in the region. Reuters

EUROPE

Kremlin calls NATO chief's nuclear weapons remark an 'escalation of tension.’ The Kremlin on Monday criticized NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg's comments about potentially deploying more nuclear weapons as an "escalation of tension." Stoltenberg mentioned consultations among NATO members regarding placing nuclear weapons on standby due to threats from Russia and China. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this contradicted a recent peace summit communique. Stoltenberg later said Russia was trying to create confusion and that his comments referred to the modernization of NATO's nuclear deterrent, including replacing F-16 jets with F-35s and the modernization of weapons deployed in Europe, which he said has been known for a long time. “Russia is trying a way to always also create a situation where they can blame NATO, and the reality is that NATO is transparent," Stoltenberg told reporters on a visit to Washington. Reuters 

A record 23 NATO allies to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024, says Stoltenberg. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced Monday that 23 of 32 NATO members will meet the 2% gross domestic product defense spending target in 2024, up from less than 10 members five years ago. This increase follows Russia's 2014 Crimea seizure and its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "Across Europe and Canada, NATO allies are increasing defense spending by 18%, that's the biggest increase in decades, and 23 allies are going to spend 2% of GDP or more on defense this year," he said. He met with U.S. President Joe Biden and discussed preparations for the upcoming NATO summit in Washington. He said that the alliance is helping Ukraine prepare for eventual membership. However, the war ends, only taking Ukraine into the alliance will dissuade Vladimir Putin from trying again in the future to conquer Ukraine, the NATO chief said. “The idea is to move (Ukraine) so close to membership that when the time comes, when there is consensus, they can become a member straight away,” Stoltenberg said. Reuters  Associated Press

Stoltenberg: West Should 'Impose A Cost' On China For Russia Support. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called for imposing consequences on China for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by providing technology and microelectronics. "Beijing cannot have it both ways. At some point — and unless China changes course — allies need to impose a cost. There should be consequences," Stoltenberg said at the Wilson Center in Washington on Monday. He highlighted that 90% of Russian microelectronics come from China, enhancing Russian satellite capabilities. "Threats are not regional," Stoltenberg said. "China is fueling the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and at the same time, it wants to maintain good relations with the West." White House spokesman John Kirby confirmed China’s supply of components for Russian military equipment. Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO faces threats from both China and Russia, including their ties with North Korea. At the upcoming NATO summit, defense spending and support for Ukraine will be key topics, with non-NATO members Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand attending as observers. RFE/RL Kyiv IndependentWilson Center 

China opens tit-for-tat anti-dumping probe into European pork. China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into European Union pork imports, primarily targeting Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, in response to EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. On Monday, leading EU pork exporter Spain said it was working with EU officials to avoid damaging tariffs. The probe, initiated by a domestic pork industry complaint, will examine pork products for human consumption. The investigation follows the EU’s imposition of anti-subsidy duties on Chinese cars. European pork producers will continue exporting to China tariff-free during the investigation, which may extend to June 2025. Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said Spain and the EU were working to avoid a trade war while protecting its products from unfair trade practices. "Just as there can't be a trade war, there can't be a subsidy race either," Cuerpo said. Reuters Reuters 

Putin extends defense ministry purge, hands job to a relative. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed four deputy defense ministers on Monday and appointed his relative Anna Tsivileva as one of the replacements, continuing a shakeup of the defense ministry. This move follows the May dismissal of longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The reshuffle reportedly aims to combat waste and corruption within the ministry and support Russia’s war economy. Other appointees include Leonid Gornin as first deputy defense minister and Pavel Fradkov, who will manage military property and construction. The changes come amid ongoing corruption investigations, with several officials arrested for bribe-taking. Reuters 

Emerging From Orban’s Shadow, a Former Ally Tries to Steal His Limelight. Peter Magyar, once a key figure in Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, has emerged as the opposition leader, criticizing Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government over corruption and Russian alignment. Anybody who knows Hungarian history knows that we were attacked many times by Russia,” he said in an interview. Magyar's new party, Tisza, won 30% in the European Parliament elections, challenging Orban’s dominance. Despite facing abuse from Fidesz-controlled media, Magyar's movement is gaining traction, rallying conservative and left-leaning supporters. His rise reflects a demand for change in Hungary’s political landscape, although sustaining momentum until the 2026 national elections remains uncertain. Magyar’s campaign focuses on rooting out corruption and distancing Hungary from Russian influence. According to Transparency International, Hungary ranks as the most corrupt country in the European Union. New York Times 

German minister lauds record seizure of cocaine after raids and arrests. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser praised the record seizure of 35 tons of cocaine worth billions of euros, resulting in seven arrests and nationwide raids. The operation, "OP Plexus," targeted cocaine influx into Europe, which Faeser stated is devastating lives and fueling cartel profits. Reuters 

France, Belgium agree to tighten collaboration in land defense. French President Emmanuel Macron and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance their nations’ cooperation in land defense, with each country acquiring a 10% stake in John Cockerill Defense, the defense unit of Belgian company John Cockerill. The equity investment will soon be formalized with an investment agreement and a shareholders' pact, setting the legal and financial framework. This agreement follows John Cockerill Defense's exclusive deal with Sweden's Volvo to purchase Arquus, Paris's top military vehicle supplier. The prospective acquisition aims to further strengthen Franco-Belgian cooperation in the defense sector. The leaders signed the memorandum during an EU leaders' meeting in Brussels. Reuters

Ammunition explosion in Czech military zone kills 1, injures 8.  An ammunition blast in a military training zone in Czech Republic’s Libava killed one service member and injured eight others, including one civilian, according to an account by the Defense Ministry on Monday. The incident occurred during a training session for ammunition technicians. The wounded were taken to hospitals in the city of Olomouc. Military police have launched an investigation into the source of the explosion. Associated Press Reuters 

Japan Prime Minister Kishida considering visit to Germany for talks with Scholz. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is reportedly planning a visit to Germany to meet Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a NATO summit in the U.S. in early July, according to NHK. Their talks are expected to focus on strengthening mineral and semiconductor supply chains, the protection of emerging technologies like A.I., and the enhancement of defense cooperation in light of the Ukraine-Russia war and China's increasing maritime aggression. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

US aircraft carrier captain playfully counters Houthi’s false online claims of hitting his ship. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, one of the oldest U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, remains active despite false claims by Yemen's Houthi rebels of hitting or sinking it. The carrier's captain, Christopher Hill, counters misinformation on social media, boosting crew morale. “I think it’s been about two or three times in the past six months we’ve allegedly been sunk, which we have not been,” Hill told the Associated Press during a recent visit to the carrier. “It is almost comical at this point. They’re attempting to maybe inspire themselves through misinformation, but it doesn’t work on us.” The Eisenhower, leading the U.S. response to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and warships, continues its patrol in the Red Sea. Despite the intense tempo and ongoing threats, Hill emphasizes maintaining morale and readiness among his 5,000-strong crew. “I came to a revelation at some point in my career that one of the things that all humans require is to be loved and valued,” Hill said. “So I shouldn’t be afraid, as a leader, to try to love and value everybody and also to expect other leaders that I’m responsible for to love and value their sailors.” Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Putin promises trade, security agreements with North Korea prior to visit. Ahead of his visit to North Korea on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to develop independent trade and security systems with North Korea, free from Western control. In a letter published by North Korean state media, Putin emphasized long-standing ties based on equality and mutual respect. He thanked North Korea for supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine and vowed to support Pyongyang against U.S. pressures and said the two nations will overcome Western sanctions. The U.S. has accused North Korea of supplying arms to Russia for the Ukraine war. France 24 Associated Press 

Vladimir Putin’s dangerous bromance with Kim Jong Un. Vladimir Putin’s Tuesday visit to North Korea marks his first trip to the nation in 24 years. Putin and Kim Jong Un have strengthened their alliance, with Putin seeking North Korean weapons for the Ukraine war and Kim gaining economic and political support. The relationship has intensified since Kim's failed talks with the U.S. in 2019. While North Korea benefits from trade and support, Russia leverages the partnership to complicate American strategy in Asia and deter South Korea from aiding Ukraine. However, the alliance faces limitations. “The new Russian love with North Korea is shallow and artificial,” argues Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on North Korea based at Kookmin University in Seoul. Putin is more likely to use the threat of technology transfer to restrain South Korean support for Ukraine than to actually do it. Pyongyang and Moscow were Cold War-era allies whose relations cooled after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Since Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, North Korea has sent Russia 11,000 shipping containers’ worth of munitions, including an estimated 5 million artillery shells, as well as Hwasong-11 class ballistic missiles, which have been linked to dozens of deaths across Ukraine, officials from the U.S. and South Korea say. North Korea was among the few countries to openly support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The partnership is likely to last as long as the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine continues. Economist CNN Al jazeera New York Times 

China could match US in military conflict thanks to shipbuilding strength, analysts say.  China's rapid naval expansion and advanced shipbuilding capabilities are seen as giving it a strategic edge in potential conflicts, including against the US's "hellscape strategy." Analysts highlight China's ability to quickly replace combat losses and the proximity of potential conflict zones like Taiwan and the South China Sea to its shores. Recent satellite imagery shows the launch of China's 10th Type 055 destroyer, its most advanced warship, with more in construction. Reports indicate China's shipbuilding industry can outpace the US in repairing and constructing naval vessels, which could be decisive in a prolonged conflict. The US is developing a drone strategy to counter China, but faces significant challenges, including a backlog in maintenance and limited shipbuilding capacity. Analysts emphasize the importance of the US addressing these issues to effectively counter China's growing naval power.  South China Morning Post 

Philippines calls Chinese report on ship collision in South China Sea “deceptive,” describes Beijing’s moves as “reckless.”  The Philippines has rejected China’s version of events regarding an incident on Monday in which a Philippine supply vessel collided with a Chinese ship after allegedly intruding into waters near the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Though the Chinese coast guard accused the Philippine ship of ignoring warnings and approaching dangerously, Manila countered the account, criticizing China's narrative as "deceptive and misleading," and defending its lawful humanitarian mission to supply the Ayungin Shoal outpost. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. condemned China's actions as reckless and pledged to protect the country's territorial integrity. U.S. Ambassador to Manila Mary Kay Carlson also criticized China's maneuvers, saying that it injured people, prevented legal operations to supply personnel, and damaged Philippine vessels. Associated Press 

US reaffirms obligation to defend the Philippines following clash with China. The U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to defend the Philippines, a close treaty ally, following Monday’s dangerous incident in the South China Sea between Philippine vessels and a Chinese ship. In a phone call, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his Philippine counterpart Maria Theresa Lazaro agreed that Beijing’s aggressive actions threatened regional peace and stability. Campbell emphasized that the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between Washington and Manila covers attacks on Philippine forces in the South China Sea, and that the U.S. would defend the Philippines. Associated Press

Taipei vigilant after Chinese submarine surfaces in Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's Defense Minister, Wellington Koo, on Tuesday reported that Taiwan has a "grasp" of the situation after images surfaced online showing a Chinese Jin class nuclear-armed submarine in the Taiwan Strait. The pictures were taken by a Taiwanese fishing boat about 200 km from Taiwan's western coast. Koo declined to detail how Taiwan was monitoring the submarine, and Beijing has not commented on the situation. The incident may have been due to a malfunction, which forced the submarine to surface on its way to Qingdao, according to a security source. The strategic waters off Taiwan's southwestern coast are significant for military operations due to their depth, making them suitable for submarines. Taiwan's P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft are stationed at Pingtung air base, providing easy access to the area. Koo emphasized the need to remain alert, but react calmly, to China's military threats while avoiding provocation. Reuters

South Korea’s military fires warning shots after North Korean troops cross fortified demarcation line for a 2nd time in a month. South Korea's military fired warning shots on Tuesday after 20 to 30 North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the Military Demarcation Line by about 20 meters inside the demilitarized zone. The soldiers retreated north after the warning shots and did not return fire, and the breach is not believed to have been intentional, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). JCS also reported that North Korean soldiers suffered multiple casualties due to landmine explosions in the demilitarized zone, as Pyongyang has been increasingly conducting activities along the frontline, including deploying soldiers, reinforcing roads, and planting landmines in order to strengthen border control and prevent defections. This follows a similar incident last week when South Korea fired warning shots after around 20 North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the border. Seoul continues to closely monitor the North’s military activities and work with the U.N. Command. Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press

China’s Premier Li to visit Australia’s mineral-rich West, meet with business leaders. Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday visited a lithium processing plant in Western Australia, underscoring China's efforts to secure critical minerals as the U.S. aims to reduce Beijing's supply dominance. Western Australia is a major supplier of iron ore and lithium, essential for electric vehicles and electronics, with China being a key customer. The competition for critical minerals, including rare earths, has intensified between Beijing and Washington, with the latter seeing Australian deposits as a way to diversify from Chinese dominance. Australia has recently blocked several Chinese investments in its critical minerals sector on national interest grounds, and the U.S. has supported Australian rare earth projects to strengthen the supply chain. Li emphasized the need for a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises in Australia. Canberra plans to consider Chinese ownership when deciding tax credits for critical minerals projects. Albanese expressed his government's commitment to using Australia's critical minerals to create jobs and enhance manufacturing and noted that three-quarters of Australia's exports to China come from Western Australia. Reuters

Australian Prime Minister addresses attempt by Chinese officials to block journalist. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday addressed an incident involving Chinese officials intentionally obstructing Australian journalist Cheng Lei during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Canberra’s parliament house, calling it a "clumsy attempt" to block her from view and asserting the need for free journalism. Albanese said he informed Li that foreign interference was not acceptable. Australian officials have raised concerns with China's embassy, which has not responded to requests for comment. Cheng was imprisoned by Beijing for three years, accused of illicitly “supplying state secrets overseas,” and freed last October. She said that Chinese officials “went to great lengths to block me from the cameras and to flank me,” and that Australian officials had to intervene at the event to prevent her obstruction. BBC Reuters The Guardian CNN 

Malaysia readying to join BRICS. Malaysia is in preparation to join the BRICS group of emerging economies, according to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The BRICS group, originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, began expanding its membership last year to challenge the Western-dominated world order. New members include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates, with over 40 countries expressing interest. Speaking in an interview with the Chinese media outlet Guancha, Anwar stated that Malaysia has decided to join and will soon initiate formal procedures, pending final results from the South African government. His office confirmed these comments to Reuters, though Anwar did not provide further details on the application process. His announcement comes ahead of Chinese Premier Li Qiang's three-day visit to Malaysia, during which the nations are expected to sign several agreements, including a renewed five-year trade and economic cooperation pact. Reuters

AFRICA

Malawi’s vice president laid to rest as president calls for an independent probe into his death. Malawi's Vice President Saulos Chilima was laid to rest Monday after a state funeral in his village. President Lazarus Chakwera, who attended the funeral along with other dignitaries, called for an independent investigation into the plane crash that killed Chilima and nine others in Mzimba. The crash occurred during a flight from Lilongwe to Mzuzu, with the plane going missing due to bad weather. Chakwera emphasized the need for an independent probe to determine the cause of the accident, ensure credibility, and prevent future incidents. The funeral included a 19-gun salute and tributes from family and former presidents. Associated Press 

Central African Republic experiencing escalating insurgent activity, spillover from Sudan’s war. The Central African Republic (CAR) faces increased armed group activity and spillover from Sudan’s conflict, according to a new United Nations report. The panel of experts cites confirmed reports of air raids by the Sudanese military around border areas and of fighters from the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces crossing over to recruit from armed groups in the CAR. Sudan plunged into conflict in mid-April 2023, disrupting vital trade and transportation routes between the CAR and Sudan’s Darfur region. Despite the CAR's vast mineral wealth, rebel groups have thwarted mining exploration for over a decade. A 2019 peace deal did not end the fighting in the CAR, and six of the 14 armed groups that signed later quit the agreement. Mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner group, along with Russian military instructors, have been working in the CAR at the government’s request. Additionally, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has moved closer to eastern CAR towns due to the conflict.  The International Criminal Court plans to present evidence against LRA leader Joseph Kony. Associated Press

Putin congratulates South Africa's Ramaphosa on re-election, an indication of warm ties. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa on his re-election, emphasizing the warm ties between the two nations. Despite South Africa's nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both countries aim to strengthen their partnership. Ramaphosa's re-election followed a parliamentary vote after his African National Congress party failed to secure a majority. With historic ties to Moscow, South Africa has shown a balanced approach to the Ukraine war, abstaining from several United Nations votes to condemn Russia. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

U.S., Chinese military experiments with weapons-equipped robots profiled.  Quadrupedal robots, better known as robot dogs, are undergoing experimentation and development in both the U.S. and Chinese militaries, according to Wired.  A recent videoclip disseminated by China’s news agency showed People’s Liberation Army (PLA) members working alongside a four-legged robot with a machine gun mounted on it.  The clip shows the robot dog entering an enclosed space and firing as two soldiers follow behind.  One of the soldiers remarks to the camera: “It can serve as a new member in our urban combat operations, replacing our members to conduct reconnaissance and identify enemy [sic] and strike the target during our training,” Earlier exercises featured robot dogs built by the Chinese firm, Kestrel Defense, armed with multiple devices, including machine guns, smoke grenades, and loitering munitions.  The U.S. also is examining weapons-toting quadrupedals, including the Marine Corps testing AI-assisted mounted gun systems on its own robotic canines.  Peter Singer, a senior fellow at the New America think tank, says these developments in U.S. and foreign militaries should not be surprising.  After all, he says, “armed robotics has been a trendline for years,” from camera-equipped robots examining roadside bombs in Iraq to surveillance drones later equipped with munitions.  Singer notes that public reaction to military robotics, especially those that are recognizable as animal-like, is often negative.  “We layer our beliefs about these types of creatures on top of ‘bioinspired’ robots,” Singer said, “and the more something acts lifelike but not like-like, the more we react with fear or disgust.”  In response, Pentagon officials and representatives of robotics companies stress that armed robots always operate with a human in the loop and do not possess AI-powered autonomous features that could override human control.  Wired

Estonian-built ground robot with Starlink connectivity may find use in Ukraine.  An Estonian-built ground robot, earlier versions of which have been delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces, will now be equipped with an integrated Starlink satellite communications module.  With the Starlink capability, the THeMis unmanned ground vehicle will be able to transmit data, receive commands, and provide crucial information in real time.  Ukrainian forces already have received 14 THeMis systems, half of which have been used for casualty evacuation with the remainder equipped with payloads for route clearance and demining operations.  Estonia’s Milrem Robotics firm said that it will unveil the Starlink-equipped system at the Eurosatory 2024 defense exhibition this week.  Ukraine also deploys to the battlefield the Ratel S, a remotely controlled kamikaze robot that can be outfitted with anti-tank missiles and a combat module.  Russia reportedly is offering a $22,000 reward for the capture of a THeMis vehicle.  Cybernews

AI-enabled underwater drones accelerating Navy threat detection operations.  The U.S. Navy is expanding use of AI systems used for underwater target detection following successful tests aboard underwater drones.  Alex Campbell, an official with the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), said the AI capability has halved the time needed to examine the ocean floor for underwater mines.  The use of AI modeling to conduct target detection has replaced the manual chore of examining underwater footage to distinguish innocuous objects from possible threats.  Campbell noted that the Navy is pursuing new production contracts for broader use of the technology on undersea drones and for testing its identification capabilities related to ships, aircraft, and other objects.  Updating the AI models aboard drones, a process that previously required removing the vessels from the ocean, is now undergoing testing of remote linkages at a significant time savings.  AI models must be retrained as new terrains are encountered.  As Campbell explained, “the bottom of the ocean in the Red Sea looks different from the bottom of the ocean off Hawaii.  Your AI has to adapt to a different ocean, and to constantly changing adversary tactics and adversary capabilities.”  Bloomberg

China’s shipbuilding assets create ‘strategic advantage’ in potential conflict with U.S.  Defense analysts describe China’s robust shipbuilding capacity as an equalizing factor with U.S. military power that may extend a strategic edge to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in a future conflict.  Raymond Kuo, a RAND Taiwan program director, noted that “China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the United States can.”  That comparative advantage exists even though U.S. ships “tend to be more complex and have greater displacement.”  Kuo added that the PLA has “an additional advantage in that any conflict over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea would be much closer to their shores.”  A report this month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) echoed these conclusions, assessing that China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks.”  Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, recently commented that the U.S. plans to distract and overwhelm PLA forces by using a large, lethal drone force in what he described as a “hellscape” strategy.  Collin Koh, a fellow at a Singapore think tank, said that strategy has preconditions — “One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralize the Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan,” which would include destroying China’s shipyards, an operation requiring long-range precision-guided munitions, among other weapons.  South China Morning Post

Cisco plans cybersecurity center in Taiwan, stepped up training for security sector .  Cisco, the U.S. networking equipment manufacturer, announced Monday that it will establish a cybersecurity center in Taiwan and collaborate with government agencies to train more people for the security sector.  Cisco described its cybersecurity focus as a feature of what it calls Taiwan Digital Acceleration Plan 3.0.  Enhanced threat intelligence and cyber readiness are goals of the Cisco initiative, which will be carried out in cooperation with tech associations, according to a Cisco statement.  Cisco global innovation officer Guy Diedrich did not provide investment figures for the company’s increased work on security issues.  Cisco’s digital acceleration program in Taiwan also includes AI applications in transport as well as sustainability operations at southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung port.  Reuters

IMF report warns of AI-triggered labor disruptions, inequalities.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed “profound” misgivings about the large-scale labor disruptions that could be brought about by generative AI.  An IMF report released on Monday urged governments to take additional steps to protect their economies, including expanding the scope and size of unemployment insurance.  The IMF acknowledged the significant potential of generative AI for productivity gains, but warned that the technology could contribute to “rising inequality.”  The report adds that education and training policies must adapt to the emerging realities of a rapidly changing job market in the future.  In particular, the IMF advocates intensified focus on life-long learning opportunities.  Era Dabla-Norris, co-author of the report, said that the economic “transition could be painful for workers” adding that “older workers may not have the skills that are needed in the age of AI and it may require more time than in the past to acquire these new skills.”  Financial Times   International Monetary Fund

Spyware maker claims government, military officials legitimate surveillance targets.  NSO Group, the manufacturer of the widely used Pegasus spyware, declared in a filing with a U.S. district court last week that government and military officials are legitimate targets for surveillance technologies.  Customers of NSO Group surveillance products include authoritarian governments in Hungary, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.  The NSO court filing involves a dispute with WhatsApp, which claims Pegasus spyware infected 1400 of its users’ devices.  The case also involves Citizen Lab, whose experts helped research many of the Pegasus infections documented in the case.  NSO Group seeks to force Citizen Lab to release information about victim identities and the methodology behind its analysis.  NSO Group claims that Citizen Lab’s so-called VIP list “is almost entirely composed of persons who, by virtue of their positions in government or military organizations, are the subject of legitimate intelligence investigations.”  The Record

UNESCO cautions AI could help strew false, misleading info on Holocaust.  A U.N. agency, UNESCO, has warned that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to a new wave of Holocaust denial. A report released on Tuesday highlights concerns that AI could spread false claims about the Holocaust online due to program flaws or intentional misuse by hate groups and Holocaust deniers. The report's primary worry is the potential use of AI to create deep fakes—realistic images or videos suggesting the Holocaust didn’t happen or was exaggerated. This could increase antisemitism and diminish understanding of this critical historical event; some AI programs even allow interactions with simulated historical figures, including Nazis like Adolf Hitler. The increasing use of AI in education and research raises the likelihood that unreliable information will be disseminated, including inadvertent "hallucinations" by AI programs based on limited sources. The report urges tech companies to establish ethical guidelines for AI development and usage to minimize the spread of misinformation and prevent misuse by malicious actors. Associated Press

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Ryan Simons & Chase Moabery contributed to this report.

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