Report for Tuesday, July 2, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Tuesday July 2, 2024

Blinken says Israel has ‘lost sovereignty’ in northern Israel due to Hezbollah strikes.

NATO to establish new Kyiv post, and seeks to ‘Trump-Proof’ Ukraine aid

China continues to use private contractors in expansive cyber espionage operations

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

On U.S.-China Worry List: Chips, Ships, and Drones  The Cipher Brief

OPINION- A Background Check Logam Is a National Security Problem  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants rocket Israel as tanks advance in Gaza.  The militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an Iran-backed ally of Hamas, fired a barrage of about 20 rockets into Israel Monday.  The projectiles landed near the fence with Gaza and caused no casualties, the Israeli military said, but the attack demonstrated that nine months into an offensive, the militants still have rockets and can fire them without interference.

Israeli tanks operated in the Shejaia suburb of eastern Gaza City for a fifth day.  The Israeli military said it had killed a number of militants there Monday and had discovered caches of weapons. Tanks advanced in western and central Rafah. The military issued an evacuation order to civilians for parts of Rafah and Khan Younis as clearing operations went on.  Israel's Army Radio said a soldier was killed in Rafah in a booby-trapped house.  Also in Rafah, the Israeli military said it killed a militant who fired an anti-tank missile at its troops. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said intense combat in Gaza would soon wind down.  "We are advancing to the end of the phase of eliminating the terrorist army of Hamas, and there will be a continuation to strike its remnants," he said.  Meanwhile, Israeli authorities released 54 Palestinians detained during the war, stirring controversy.  Among them was Mohammad Abu Selmeyah, director of Al Shifa Hospital, arrested when Israeli military forces stormed the hospital in November and accused hospital officials of allowing Hamas to use the facility as cover. Abu Selmeyah countered that he and other Israeli detainees were tortured in jail in Israel.  The military did not immediately comment on Abu Selmeyah's remarks.  Reuters  Deutsche Welle  Associated Press 

Victims of Hamas attack sue Iran, Syria, North Korea in U.S. court.  More than 100 victims and relatives of victims of the Oct. 7 attack in Israel sued Iran, Syria and North Korea Monday for  $4 billion for supporting Hamas, Their lawsuit is the largest case against foreign countries in connection with the attack, and the first backed by a Jewish organization, the Anti-Defamation League said in a press release. Reuters 

Blinken: Israel ‘lost sovereignty’ in northern Israel due to Hezbollah strikes.  Israel has “lost sovereignty” in the northern part of its country due to Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday. “People don’t feel safe to go to their homes,” he said at the Brookings Institute in Washington. “Absent doing something about the insecurity, people won’t have the confidence to return,” he said.  Some 60,000 Israelis from northern border communities have fled the bombardment and left the border largely deserted.  Jerusalem Post   

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

NATO to Establish New Kyiv Post and Seeks to ‘Trump-Proof’ Ukraine Aid. NATO plans to station a senior civilian official in Kyiv and create a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate military aid and training for Ukraine. These measures aim to secure long-term support amid Europe's right-wing political surge and the potential return of Donald Trump, who might reduce U.S. aid to Ukraine. The new NATO command, staffed by nearly 700 personnel, will handle military equipment and training previously managed by the U.S. The initiatives seek to ensure stable assistance despite political changes and enhance Ukraine's military alignment with NATO standards. The July 9-11 NATO summit in Washington will address these plans and financial pledges for Ukraine. Wall Street Journal

Zelensky urges Biden to allow Ukraine to hit Russian airfields to stop Kremlin bombing campaign. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to strike Russian airfields. These strikes would aim to stop Russia's devastating bombing campaign, which uses modernized glide bombs launched from fighter-bombers in Russian airspace. Zelenskyy highlights that current U.S. policy restricts Ukraine to targeting areas near the border. He argues that more Patriot missile defenses are insufficient and costly, advocating instead for the ability to hit airfields deep in Russia. This move could significantly reduce the intensity of Russia's bombing and alleviate Ukraine’s strategic defense challenges. Politico

Ukraine expects strengthened air defenses in July, Zelensky says. In a Monday address, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to enhance Ukraine's air defense and security capabilities over the next month. He emphasized the need for long-range weapons, fighter jets, and air defense systems and thanked a U.S. congressional delegation for their support. The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner led the U.S. House of Representatives delegation. It included Representatives Betty McCollum, John Joyce, Ronny Jackson, and Tony Gonzales. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainian air base under frequent fire as Russia aims at F-16 arrivals. The small city of Starokostiantyniv in western Ukraine, home to a crucial air base, experienced explosions as Ukrainian air defenses repelled a Russian attack. This recent strike underscores the challenges Ukraine faces as it rebuilds its air force and prepares to deploy U.S.-designed F-16 fighter jets, which Russia aims to target. Despite frequent attacks since Russia's invasion in February 2022, residents have adapted to the ongoing danger. The arrival of F-16s this month is expected to bolster Ukraine's defense, although the exact location of their deployment remains undisclosed. The Russian military has targeted infrastructure to hinder F-16 operations, while Ukrainian officials maintain resilience amidst these threats.  Reuters 

Netherlands completes export license for 24 F-16s, jets to reach Ukraine 'soon.' The Netherlands has finalized export licenses for 24 F-16 fighter jets to be delivered to Ukraine, announced Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren on July 1. The delivery of the first jets will happen soon, though no exact date was provided for security reasons. This move supports Ukraine's efforts to bolster its Air Force, with additional F-16s pledged by Denmark, Belgium, and Norway. The jets are expected to arrive this summer, following the Netherlands and Denmark co-founding the "fighter-jet coalition" for Ukraine at the NATO summit in July 2023. President Volodymyr Zelensky anticipates enhanced air defense capabilities. Reuters  Kyiv Independent 

Russia is studying an intact U.S. ATACMS missile guidance system, says RIA. Russian forces have captured an intact guidance system from a U.S.-made ATACMS missile and are studying the technology, Russia's RIA state news agency reported on Monday. Video footage shows an expert examining the missile's GPS guidance system. Retired Russian Colonel Viktor Litovkin said Moscow aims to identify weak spots and improve their ability to shoot down ATACMS missiles. The U.S. began supplying these long-range missiles to Ukraine several months ago. The missiles can strike up to 186 miles away, around double the range of the HIMARS systems that the United States began supplying Ukraine in 2022. Reuters

Russia says Ukraine launched scores of drones at three regions. Russia's defense ministry reported Monday that air defense systems destroyed 36 Ukrainian drones targeting three regions bordering Ukraine. Eighteen drones were reportedly downed over Bryansk, nine in Kursk, and nine in Belgorod. The governors of Bryansk and Kursk reported no injuries or significant damage. Kyiv stated that attacks on Russia's infrastructure are in response to Moscow's ongoing assaults since the 2022 invasion. Reuters 

Russia says it takes over two villages in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian forces have taken over the villages of Spirne and Novooleksandrivka in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, improving their positions along the frontline, Russia's defense ministry said Sunday. Spirne is near the Luhansk border, while Novooleksandrivka is 130 km west of Spirne. Ukraine's General Staff reported heavy fighting in the area but did not mention any losses. Donetsk is one of four regions Russia claimed to annex in 2022, a move widely condemned as illegal. Reuters 

Russia says it destroys five Ukrainian SU-27 jet fighters at airfield. Russia claimed it destroyed five Ukrainian SU-27 fighter jets and damaged two more at the Myrhorod airfield in Ukraine's Poltava region using Iskander-M missiles. Ukraine acknowledged a strike but accused Russia of exaggerating the damage and did not specify the extent of the damage. Russia's defense ministry released footage showing smoke and flames at the airfield. Ukrainian Air Force official Yuriy Ihnat confirmed the strike but stated the losses were not as severe as Russia claimed. He highlighted the threat posed by Russian reconnaissance drones that assist in conducting such strikes, which report real-time data before missile attacks.  Reuters 

Ukraine has a month to avoid default. Russia’s war continues to harm Ukraine’s economy, shrinking gross domestic product (GDP) by 25% from the 2021 size and depleting foreign reserves. Despite recent U.S. and G7 funding, Ukraine faces a cash crunch, with debt-service moratoriums expiring on Aug. 1. For the past two years, Ukraine’s creditors have agreed to suspend debt-service payments. The let-off from government and private lenders is worth 15% of the yearly GDP. Indeed, if payments had been required, they would have been the state’s second-biggest expenditure, behind defense. Ukraine’s creditors, including Amundi and Pimco, have rejected a proposed 60% debt write-down, suggesting 22% instead. With a debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 94%, Ukraine needs fiscal relief to avoid default. The International Monetary Fund recommends restructuring, but private investors are wary, considering Ukraine's economic outlook and ability to win the war. This distrust may hinder Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction and recovery efforts. Economist 

Ukraine Says It Foiled Another Russian Plot to Topple the Government. The Security Service of Ukraine announced Monday it foiled a Russian plot to incite unrest and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky's government. The plan reportedly involved staging a protest in Kyiv to seize the parliament building and replace Ukraine's leadership. Four conspirators have been arrested and charged with treason. This attempt reflects ongoing Kremlin efforts to destabilize Ukraine through covert operations and disinformation, in addition to its military campaign. Officials highlighted the plot's goal to create chaos and undermine faith in the government, emphasizing Russia's determination to bring down Zelensky by any means. New York Times 

Ukraine Faces Electricity Cuts Due To Summer Demand, Effects Of Russian Strikes. Ukraine faces potential blackouts and restrictions due to increased summer demand and ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, warned electricity provider Ukrenerho. Recent temperatures exceeding 30°C combined with damaged infrastructure are causing strain on the energy system. Despite electricity imports from neighboring countries, the damage from Russian attacks remains substantial. President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged the European Union to increase electricity exports and repair resources, emphasizing Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy sector as a critical part of the Kremlin’s war strategy. RFE/RL 

On Trump, Russia UN envoy says Ukraine war can't end in one day. Russia's United Nations Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said Monday that the Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved in one day, responding to U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's claim that he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected. Trump argues that a respected U.S. president could have prevented the invasion. The outcome of the U.S. election is crucial for Russia as it will affect Washington's support for Ukraine. Nebenzia's remarks came as Russia assumed the U.N. Security Council presidency for July. Reuters 

Viktor Orban to meet Volodymyr Zelensky on his first wartime trip to Ukraine. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban will visit Kyiv on Tuesday, marking his first trip to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. Orban, a prominent critic of military aid to Kyiv and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other officials. This visit follows Hungary's assumption of the European Union Council presidency. Orban has previously opposed financial aid to Ukraine and vetoed EU decisions on weapon supplies. Despite his opposition, Hungary recently lifted its block on formal EU accession talks with Ukraine, citing minority rights concerns as a justification for its stance. Almost all EU leaders except Orban have visited Kyiv since Russia’s full-scale Ukraine in February 2022. He is also one of only two — along with Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer — to have met Putin in that time Reuters 

Black Sea Mine Operation Begins in Bid to Help Ukraine Exports. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria launched a joint mine-hunting force in the Black Sea to enhance shipping safety, particularly for Ukrainian grain exports. This Istanbul-led initiative, the first major action by Black Sea nations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, aims to neutralize drifting mines. Despite the war's risks, Ukraine's new export route has boosted grain shipments, with 37.4 million tons exported from Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi since August 2023. The joint effort, conducted outside of NATO to avoid escalating tensions with Russia, underscores the importance of securing these critical maritime routes. Bloomberg 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, July 1, 2024. Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev announced increased detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration and called for intensified crackdowns, while Russian military bloggers criticized the accuracy of these claims. Russia assumed its one-month United Nations Security Council presidency on Monday and plans to use it for power projection. South Korea reported that North Korea switched its TV broadcasts to Russian satellites, affecting monitoring capabilities. Hungary began its six-month European Union Council presidency on Monday.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces advanced near Kreminna, and Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

Ukraine is releasing thousands of prisoners so they can join the fight against Russia. Ukraine is releasing thousands of prisoners to join the fight against Russia, addressing acute battlefield shortages. At a penal colony in southeast Ukraine, convicts are offered parole in exchange for military service. More than 3,000 inmates have already been released and assigned to military units. Around 27,000 prisoners may be eligible for this program. The initiative aims to bolster Ukraine's defenses as Russian forces advance. The program excludes those convicted of severe crimes and integrates inmates into regular Ukrainian frontline units rather than mercenary groups. Associated Press 

Ukraine dismisses reports on bolstering troops near Belarus. Ukraine's border guards have dismissed Belarusian claims that Kyiv is reinforcing troops near their mutual border, calling it an information operation backed by Russia. Belarus, a close Russian ally, recently asserted that Ukraine was bolstering its forces along the frontier. Ukrainian border guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko refuted these claims, emphasizing ongoing border security measures and attributing the reports to Belarus's military exercises. Belarus also reported deploying additional air defenses after allegedly downing a Ukrainian drone. Reuters 

AMERICAS

Blinken charges that Beijing is helping Moscow ‘sustain Ukraine war’   Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China was helping fuel “the biggest security threat … since the end of the Cold War” for Europe.   “Partners in Europe see challenges halfway around the world in Asia as being relevant to them, just as partners in Asia see challenges halfway around the world in Europe as being relevant to them,” Blinken said. He pointed to a joint statement by Nato and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last year that said, “what happens in Europe could happen in Asia tomorrow.”  South China Morning Post   

Blinken reassures US allies after Biden’s debate performance   Secretary of State Antony Blinken, one of Biden’s closest aides, dismissed the president’s disastrous debate performance: It was just one bad night.“If you look at surveys around the world — for what they’re worth — you see again and again and again that confidence in American leadership has gone up dramatically over the last three and a half years,” Blinken said. “That doesn’t just happen. It’s the product of choices, it’s the product of policies that we pursue, it’s the product of our engagement. They see President Biden having led the way in all of those different areas.” Politico 

Umerov to meet with Austin at the Pentagon on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will meet U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, underscoring U.S. support for Ukraine's sovereignty and security. They will discuss bilateral defense cooperation and regional security to strengthen their defense partnership. Additionally, fifteen House Democrats, led by Adam Schiff, urged the Pentagon to expedite and expand training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. Kyiv Independent 

U.N. General Assembly passes China-led resolution on AI. In a diplomatic victory for China, the U.N. General Assembly on Monday adopted a Beijing-led resolution calling for the formation of a “free, open, inclusive and non-discriminatory” business environment for AI development among wealthy and developing nations. More than 140 countries, including the U.S., co-sponsored the non-binding resolution, which urges global cooperation to assist developing nations and ensure equal opportunities in the non-military domain. China’s U.N. representative, Fu Cong, emphasized the importance of a unified approach to AI and the significant role the U.N. could play in AI governance. Fu also praised Washington for its positive role in the process. Beijing, which likely seeks to ensure that the U.S. does not solely dominate the global discourse on AI standards, has been advocating for the inclusion of developing world perspectives in AI governance and released its Global AI Governance Initiative in October. South China Morning Post 

The Boeing plea deal’s potential impact on the company. The U.S. Justice Department plans to charge Boeing with fraud over two fatal crashes and offer a plea deal to avoid trial.  The company has until the end of the week to respond. This deal follows a May finding that Boeing violated a 2021 agreement shielding it from prosecution for crashes in 2018 and 2019, which killed a combined 346 people. Boeing continues to dispute the breach claim, asserting that it complied with the settlement terms. If Boeing rejects the plea deal, it faces a trial with risks for both sides; a conviction could severely impact the company’s ability to secure government contracts, which are crucial to its revenue. Legal experts note that felony convictions can disrupt government contracting, though Boeing could seek waivers. The proposed agreement includes a $487.2 million financial penalty, probation for three years, and requires Boeing’s board to meet with victims' families. Boeing has already paid $2.5 billion in penalties and restitution related to the original conspiracy charge. An independent monitor would audit Boeing’s safety and compliance practices for three years. This plea does not resolve or grant immunity for other conduct, such as the January 5th incident involving an Alaska Airlines-operated flight. Reuters

Venezuelan leader Maduro says he has agreed to resume negotiations with U.S.  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Monday revealed plans to resume negotiations with the U.S. government, seeking the removal of economic sanctions ahead of a crucial election where he faces significant opposition. Maduro, seeking a third term, described the dialogue as urgent. The Biden administration has not yet commented on the situation. Maduro said that talks to comply with agreements will restart next Wednesday. In the past, he suspended meetings with the White House and the U.S.-backed Unitary Platform opposition coalition, accusing Washington of not fulfilling agreements. Maduro had previously agreed to improve election conditions but reneged, prompting the U.S. to end sanction relief. His ruling party blocked the opposition's initial candidate, Maria Corina Machado, from running, and her substitute was also barred. Associated Press 

Panama's new president vows to rein in illegal migration with U.S. deal.  Panama's newly elected president, Jose Raul Mulino, took office on Monday and promised to address illegal immigration, ushering in an agreement with the U.S. to limit migration through the Darien Gap. Mulino described the situation as a humanitarian and environmental crisis and vowed to seek international help. In 2023, a record 520,000 migrants traversed the Darien Gap, a dangerous jungle passage on the border with Colombia. Shortly after his inauguration, Panama's new foreign minister signed a memorandum with U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to block illegal immigrant passage through the Darien Gap, with Washington pledging to cover repatriation costs. The agreement aims to reduce migrant smuggling en route to the U.S., and Washington will support the Central American nation with transportation, equipment, and logistics to send illegal migrants entering Panama back to their home countries. It is unclear exactly how much money the U.S. will provide for charter flights or commercial airplane tickets for migrants. Reuters Associated Press Associated Press

Bolivia summons Argentina’s ambassador for admonishment over its coup hoax claims. Bolivia’s government on Monday summoned the Argentine ambassador to address claims that last week's alleged military coup in Bolivia was fake. President Luis Arce faces criticism both domestically and internationally, with accusations that he orchestrated the coup to appear heroic. Argentine President Javier Milei, the first foreign leader to question the coup's authenticity, criticized Bolivia's socialist history and suggested the coup narrative was not credible. This prompted strong backlash from Bolivian officials, who demanded Argentina refrain from interfering in their internal affairs. The diplomatic tension between Bolivia and Argentina has escalated as Milei's government stands by and defends its position. The U.S. has called for an independent investigation into the events. Associated Press

EUROPE

U.S. military raises security alert at bases around Europe following combination of threats across region. The U.S. military has heightened its security measures at bases throughout Europe due to various regional threats. The U.S. European Command’s action, raising the threat level to Charlie, reflects heightened vigilance due to multiple factors such as upcoming elections in France and the U.K., major sporting events including the Paris Olympics, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Charlie is the second highest of five security levels. While no specific threat has been publicly identified, the increased security level indicates a likely risk of terrorist activity. Each base commander will decide on the specific measures to implement, and service members and their families are advised to remain vigilant and keep a low profile. U.S. military bases in other places, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, already operated at higher security levels. Associated Press

Leader of Russia's Dagestan blames attacks on 'international terrorists.’ Sergei Melikov, leader of Russia's Dagestan region, blamed "international terrorist organizations" for the deadly attacks in two cities on June 23, which targeted churches and synagogues and killed 22 people. He dismissed claims of internal involvement, pointing to external influences via the Internet and social networks. The attacks highlight Russia's growing problem with Islamist militant violence. Melikov also mentioned a forthcoming fatwa to ban niqabs, as one gunman attempted to escape wearing one. Reuters

Navalnaya Elected Head Of Human Rights Foundation, Succeeding Kasparov. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, has been elected chair of the Human Rights Foundation (HRF), replacing Garry Kasparov. Navalnaya expressed her commitment to HRF's mission, emphasizing her personal connection to the fight against dictatorship. HRF is a New York-based nonprofit promoting and protecting human rights globally. Alexei Navalny, whom in life the Kremlin described as a dangerous U.S.-backed extremist, died aged 47 in an Arctic prison in February after being sentenced to long jail terms on fraud and extremism charges that he, the West, and his supporters said were politically motivated. Yulia Navalnaya, who is located outside Russia and had two children with Navalny, accused Putin of having him murdered. RFE/RL Reuters

Russia Twice Sent Kilo Attack Submarines Toward the Irish Sea. Since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian Kilo-class submarines have twice ventured into the Irish Sea, prompting the UK military to respond in order to protect British and Irish waters. The submarines, capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles, were first detected near the Irish Sea 18 months ago, with a more recent sighting reported. The UK's Ministry of Defence and U.S. officials have not publicly commented on these operations. This unprecedented activity likely aims to identify weaknesses in British and Irish defenses and intimidate the UK for its support of Ukraine. Russian submarines also conducted drills in the Atlantic before visiting Cuba. Bloomberg Reuters

Europe smarts as Elon Musk’s SpaceX wins key satellite deal. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) chose to launch its MTG-S1 weather satellite with SpaceX instead of waiting for the delayed Ariane 6, despite its maiden launch set for July 9. Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency, found this decision surprising, urging support for Europe's autonomous space access. Philippe Baptiste, head of CNES, criticized the abrupt change. EUMETSAT's decision highlights reliance on SpaceX’s cost-effective launches, while the European Union aims to prioritize the locally made Ariane 6 rocket for future missions. Politico 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Yemen's Houthis say they targeted four ships 'linked to the US, UK and Israel.' Yemen's Houthis claimed Monday they targeted four ships linked to the U.S., UK, and Israel in the Red, Arabian, and Mediterranean Seas and the Indian Ocean. Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarea identified the Israeli ship MSC Unific, U.S. oil tanker Delonix, UK landing ship Anvil Point, and another vessel, Lucky Sailor. These operations, reportedly in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, continue the Houthis drone and missile strikes in shipping lanes since November. Reuters 

Diplomats express worries over Afghan women’s rights in Taliban talks. During a two-day U.N.-led meeting in Qatar, international envoys expressed significant concerns about the restrictions on women and girls in Afghanistan under the Taliban's rule. This meeting marked the first time the Taliban, who have not been internationally recognized since seizing power in 2021, participated in such discussions. U.N. political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo stressed global worries about the severe limitations imposed on women and girls. Since the Taliban's return, women and girls have been largely barred from high school and universities. They have been restricted from traveling without a male guardian, working in aid agencies, visiting parks, and even running beauty salons. DiCarlo clarified that engaging with the Taliban does not equate to recognizing their government but is part of an international effort to address issues affecting Afghan citizens. The talks also focused on the private sector and narcotics. She acknowledged criticism from rights groups about the absence of Afghan women at the discussions. Reuters Associated Press

Lufthansa ceases night flights to and from Beirut amid Middle East tensions, developments. Germany’s Lufthansa Group revealed Monday that the company is pausing night flights to and from Beirut until the 31st of July due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East. Daytime flights will continue as normal. Swiss International Air Lines, a subsidiary of Lufthansa, has also shifted its Beirut night flights to the daytime until the end of the month because of political developments at the Lebanon-Israel border. The airlines did not specify the exact threat. In March, Lebanon announced plans to file a U.N. Security Council complaint over Israel allegedly disrupting Beirut's air navigation systems, impacting aviation safety at Rafic Hariri International Airport. However, Swiss International Air Lines clarified that the schedule change is unrelated to any potential GPS interference. Reuters

Iraq detains PKK-affiliated cell suspected of planning assaults across country.  Iraq on Monday claimed it arrested three individuals linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who were allegedly planning attacks across the nation, including on a crucial oil pipeline in the north. The suspects were presented to reporters, masked and in yellow jumpsuits, and were said to form a PKK-connected cell. The Interior Ministry spokesman, Brigadier General Muqdad Meeri, stated that they planned to attack the Ceyhan oil pipeline and had admitted to setting fires in commercial markets in the Kurdistan region, causing losses of around $300 million. The PKK is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU. The PKK denied the accusations, blaming Turkish intelligence for the arson. The suspects also reportedly intended to target busy markets in Baghdad if faced with government pressure. Reuters

U.N. reports more than 50% of Yemeni households lack enough food. The U.N. food agency reported Monday that over half of Yemeni households are suffering from food shortages due to economic hardship and a prolonged halt in food assistance in the rebel-controlled north. The World Food Program (WFP) highlighted "severe food deprivation" in northern regions such as Al Jawf, Al Badya, Hajjah, Amran, and Al Hodeidah. The WFP ceased food aid in the north in December due to funding shortages and disagreements with rebel authorities. Food insecurity is also at historic highs in the south, which is controlled by the internationally recognized government. In May, essential food items were available but unaffordable for the most vulnerable communities due to price hikes in staples like sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour, and red beans. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

South China Sea disputes: can Beijing keep it bilateral despite high-seas clashes?  Recent and highly publicized confrontations between Chinese and Philippine ships in the South China Sea have highlighted the growing international attention on the dispute, which Beijing generally prefers to handle bilaterally. This increased global focus, which stems from China's aggressive claims over the resource-rich waters, has drawn concern and criticism, sparking worries within Beijing over the internationalization of the issue. Analysts suggest that China is disturbed not only by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s shift away from his predecessor’s China-friendly policies, but also by an increase in the number of nations conducting patrols in the contested zone or setting forth Indo-Pacific strategies. The regional dispute, now a key issue in the U.S.-China rivalry, has been discussed at G7 and NATO summits, with international backlash against Beijing's approach growing, and nations like India, South Korea, and Sweden expressing concerns.  While all parties aim to manage differences and avoid escalation, China continues to adapt to the internationalized dispute, balancing its global ambitions with rising domestic nationalist expectations. South China Morning Post 

What Taiwan is learning from the war in Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has heightened Taiwan's awareness of its own security threats from China. Taiwan’s de facto ambassador in Washington highlighted the increased defense spending and extended military training as key measures in response. The island also focuses on asymmetric warfare capabilities and societal resilience, inspired by Ukraine's defense efforts. Taiwan seeks U.S. military aid to deter Chinese aggression through strong defensive measures and international support. Given Taiwan's critical role in semiconductor production, the potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific could have significant global economic implications. Washington Post 

Philippines claims June 17th incident in South China Sea was 'most aggressive' recent Chinese action. A senior Philippine navy official, Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, stated on Tuesday that the Chinese Coast Guard's maneuvers against Philippine vessels during a resupply mission to the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea last month were the "most aggressive" in recent history. He described the actions as "deliberate, planned, and escalatory." On June 17, a Philippine sailor was seriously injured in what was described as an "intentional high-speed ramming" by the Chinese Coast Guard. Beijing has contested Manila’s account, claiming their actions were lawful. Reuters

North Korea claims it tested a ballistic missile capable of carrying massive warhead.  North Korean state media reported Tuesday that the nation successfully conducted a test of a new tactical ballistic missile, the Hwasongpho-11 Da-4.5, on Monday. The weapon is reportedly capable of carrying a 4.5-ton super-large warhead. This follows a South Korean report of two ballistic missiles launched by Pyongyang, with the second likely failing shortly after being fired. News agency KCNA did not clarify the number of missiles launched and focused on verifying the missile's flight stability and accuracy. KCNA also disclosed plans for another missile launch in July to test the warhead's explosion power. The Hwasongpho-11, also known as KN-23, is a short-range ballistic missile series. Separately, South Korea conducted artillery drills close to the Military Demarcation Line on Tuesday, resuming live-fire exercises after suspending a military pact with Pyongyang. Reuters 

Japan successfully uses new flagship H3 rocket to launch sophisticated Earth observation satellite.  Japan successfully launched an upgraded Earth observation satellite, ALOS-4, on Monday, using its new flagship H3 rocket. The rocket was launched from the Tanegashima Space Center, and the satellite, deployed into its targeted orbit 16 minutes after liftoff, will primarily be used for disaster response, mapmaking, and monitoring volcanic and seismic activity. It also has capabilities to observe military activities, such as missile launches, with an infrared sensor. JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa called the launch "a big first step" in enhancing Japan's space access and international competitiveness. The mission was described as "almost a perfect success" by JAXA's H3 Project Manager Makoto Arita. Japan aims to establish a stable, commercially competitive space transport capability, crucial for its space program and national security. Associated Press 

Cambodia rejects claims it hosted Chinese naval base, but two vessels suggest otherwise.  Two Chinese navy corvettes have been docked at Cambodia's Ream Naval Base since December, raising suspicions that China has established a permanent military foothold in the region. Although initially claimed to be for training purposes, their prolonged presence suggests a more significant strategic intent. The U.S. has been monitoring the base closely, especially after reports of a secret agreement between China and Cambodia to allow Chinese naval vessels to be based there. The base has seen extensive construction, funded and assisted by China, further indicating its long-term military significance. Despite denials from both China and Cambodia regarding exclusive military use, the persistent presence of Chinese ships and ongoing upgrades highlight the growing military cooperation between the two nations, potentially affecting regional security dynamics, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea. Wall Street Journal

Explosion in Pakistan kills 3, and rocket attack kills 2 security personnel.  Officials reported the deaths of a woman and two children on Monday after a roadside bomb exploded in Pakistan’s turbulent Baluchistan province. The bomb detonated as four people walked through Turbat district, according to local police. Although no group claimed responsibility for the killings, Baluch separatists, who seek independence from the central government in Islamabad, frequently target security forces in the area. Despite government claims of having subdued the insurgency, violence continues. Separately, a rocket attack killed two security personnel on their post in Jamrud, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, near the Afghanistan border. There were no immediate claims of responsibility. Such attacks are often attributed to the Pakistani Taliban, an ally of the Afghan Taliban. Associated Press 

AFRICA

Turkey mediates between Somalia, Ethiopia to relax diplomatic strain.  Turkey facilitated discussions between Somalia and Ethiopia on Monday to ease diplomatic tensions caused by Ethiopia's memorandum with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which Somalia views as a violation of its sovereignty. This memorandum allows Ethiopia access to the sea through Somaliland in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence. During the talks, the foreign ministers of Ethiopia and Somalia reportedly had a productive and forward-looking discussion. A second round of talks is scheduled for September 2 in Ankara. Both ministers committed to resolving their differences peacefully and expressed gratitude to Turkey for its constructive role in the negotiations. Prior to the memorandum, Somalia and Ethiopia had peaceful relations. Associated Press 

CYBER & TECH

Taiwan commissions ‘carrier killer’ ships as part of asymmetric warfare capability.  Taiwan will commission two ships this week described as “carrier killers.”  The An Jiang and Wan Jiang are the first of a total of six corvettes to be incorporated into the island’s defensive asymmetric warfare capabilities.  A Taiwan source reported the ships “have completed their combat training and will be officially enlisted by the navy on Wednesday to safeguard our waters.”  The source added that a second batch of corvettes will be delivered “by the end of 2026.”   Among other armaments, the corvettes carry Hsiung Feng II and III anti-ship missiles, as well as Hai Chien II anti-aircraft missiles.  Reportedly the catamaran-design vessels can engage targets on land or sea, including aircraft carriers.  They have a maximum speed of 45 knots and an operational range of 1800 nautical miles.  The Taiwanese navy said the ships have integrated stealth technology to avoid easy detection and are designed to operate in shallow or coastal waters.  The navy says the corvettes are capable of countering the larger PLA Navy fleet as part of an asymmetric warfare strategy. South China Morning Post

China continues to use private contractors in expansive cyberespionage operations.  In the wake of the document leaks in February from the Chinese I-Soon hacking firm, more details have emerged on China’s use of private firms for offensive cyber operations.  Analysts suggest the privatization trend likely has been triggered by the increasing scale of Beijing cyberespionage activities.  Private operators enlisted in this campaign include I-Soon and Chengdu 404 and Chinese intelligence front organizations, including Hunan Xiaoruizhi S&T and Hainan Xiandun Technology.  Researchers say that Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive policies introduced from 2017-2022 resulted in expanding intelligence requirements that can be met by contractors hired for unclassified information gathering.  This growth of private sector vendors, former MI-6 operations director Nigel Inkster says, has created an intelligence capacity for China whose “scope and intensity…is overwhelming Western defenses.”  There are downsides to the use of poorly supervised independent firms, which reportedly work for the party-state by day but use company equipment and software for fraud operations in off-hours.  Analysts say the lack of control may explain in part the thousands of cybercrime arrests by the Ministry of Public Security within China from 2022-23.  Despite the exposure of state-private sector cyberespionage operations by the I-Soon leaks, the use of contractors in Chinese cyber campaigns appears to continue unabated.  Researchers note that although Chengdu 404 was implicated by the leaks in a bid-rigging scheme targeting the ministries of State Security and Public Security, the company is still operating and advertising job opportunities to develop websites, big data, and web crawler technology.  DefenseOne

Huawei partners with Wuhan foundry to develop key AI HBM chips.  Huawei and a Chinese semiconductor foundry are partnering to develop high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are critical components of computing infrastructure for AI products.  Huawei’s entry into HBM chip development and production is the latest company move intended to defeat U.S. technology sanctions on the firm.  Observers of the sector are closely monitoring China’s initial moves into the HBM chip market.  The Huawei initiative also involves Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech and Tongfu Microelectronics, which are integrated circuit packaging firms producing Chip on Wafer on Substrate that allows stacking of different types of semiconductors.  The global market for HBM chips is dominated by South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, with each company commanding large market shares driven by demand from AI chip firms like Nvidia.  Neither Huawei nor Wuhan Xinxin immediately responded to requests for comment.  Cybernews

Beijing proposes regulation, support of autonomous vehicle development technology.  A wide-ranging draft regulation released over the weekend by the Beijing municipal government would offer support and oversight of the development of autonomous driving technology.  The proposed regulation is inviting public comment until July 29.  If approved, it would extend Beijing support for “technological breakthroughs” in autonomous vehicle sensors, semiconductors, operating systems, and algorithms.  It also would implement a city-wide monitoring program to ensure safe operation of autonomous cars.  The regulation would require establishment of a testbed for new technologies and products in a regulated environment.  Beijing currently allows automated shuttle services between the Daxing International Airport and the high-tech Yizhuang area of the city.  Certain firms have been authorized to conduct mapping services, which are strictly regulated in China.  Overall, the proposed city regulation seeks to advance “the development of the industry and the construction of intelligent transport” primarily for buses, taxis, freight, and security patrols.  South China Morning Post

Japan’s successful H3 rocket launch lifts radar satellite into low-earth orbit — Japan registered the second successful launch of its main H3 launch vehicle on Monday by sending an earth observation satellite into orbit.  The launch was seen as a significant accomplishment toward the goal of competing in the world launch market with the H3 as a commercial launch vehicle.  JAXA, the Japanese space agency, reported that the two-stage hydrogen rocket carried a three-ton radar satellite into sun-synchronous orbit.  The Advanced Land Observing Satellite-4 (ALOS-4) was designed to replace the aging ALOS-2 radar satellite.  JAXA and rocket manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) plan for the H3 rocket to be competitive on the world market by reducing launch costs by half to a level comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9.  That goal would be achieved once the H3 is able to lift off without the support of solid-fuel boosters.  MHI space systems general manager Iwao Igarashi said that the success of the H3 launch will boost confidence in its reliability, adding "we believe that the launch success will raise their interest in our rocket."  Japan plans five rocket launches through next March — three H3s and two H2As., JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa noted the H3 is still an evolving system and needs to be launched in different configurations, including one powered by three instead of two engines and one without solid-fuel boosters.  Nikkei Bloomberg

United Launch Alliance scrambles to regain Pentagon satellite launch business.  United Launch Alliance (ULA) is attempting to recover from problems with its Vulcan Centaur rocket in a bid to reclaim U.S. contracts for national security launch missions.  ULA has been surpassed in recent years by SpaceX, the world leader in rocket launches and a key partner for sensitive Pentagon space missions.  ULA currently is accelerating production of the Vulcan Centaur, whose development is years behind schedule.  An Air Force spokesperson noted that “Vulcan delays are now impacting national-security launches, leaving military satellite capability on the ground.”  ULA CEO Tory Bruno acknowledged the backlog, saying “we’re really pushing hard to ramp up.”  Vulcan Centaur boasts a powerful main booster and the smaller Centaur craft to propel satellites into orbit, including targets in deeper space as well as near-Earth orbits.  ULA hired Blue Origin to provide new engines for Vulcan, but the company missed early production goals.  Bruno said recently that Blue Origin is approaching building one engine a week rather than one a month. Each Vulcan booster needs two engines.  ULA plans three more Vulcan launches this year, including a September mission to show the Pentagon the rocket can operate as designed, followed by two DoD operational flights.  Wall Street Journal

Tech sector AI-related energy demands fuel nuclear industry revival.  Tech companies and U.S. nuclear-power plants are in discussions as data center energy demands increase to meet the AI boom.  Amazon Web Services and Constellation Energy CEG, the largest owner of U.S. nuclear-power plants, are closing on a deal for electricity supplies.   In March, an Amazon subsidiary acquired a nuclear-powered data center in Pennsylvania for $650 million.  Concerns are growing that the tech company's appetite for power may deplete electricity grids of stable power generation.  New electricity users, including AI developers, manufacturers, and transportation operators, are contributing to significantly elevated electricity demand in parts of the country.   Nuclear-powered data centers could meet tech company demands for around-the-clock power.  But current grid structures likely would divert power resources to meet tech company demands, possibly raising prices for other customers and delaying emission-cutting goals.  Patrick Cicero, the Pennsylvania consumer advocate, said he worries about costs if “massive consumers of energy kind of get first dibs.”  An Amazon spokesperson said that in addition to wind- and solar-energy projects, the company is “exploring new innovations and technologies, and investing in other sources of clean, carbon-free energy.”  The new interest in nuclear power reversed a trend in the industry following overbuilding in the 1990s.  For two decades, nuclear plants struggled to compete with wind, solar and natural gas.  The new AI demand for energy now creates a situation in which tech companies will pay premium prices for nearly uninterrupted, carbon-free power.  Wall Street Journal

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell,  Ryan Simons & Chase Moabery contributed to this report.

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