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10:30 AM ET, Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

U.S.-owned cargo ship near Yemen hit by Houthi missile.

North Korea’s Kim says reunification impossible, urges designation of South Korea as primary enemy.

Russia, Iran seeking military-technological treaty.

Iran claims to hit Israeli intelligence targets in Iraq. 

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

U.S.-owned cargo ship near Yemen hit by Houthi missile.  British maritime security firm Ambrey said a U.S.-owned cargo ship off the southern coast of Yemen was hit by a missile.  Ambrey said the attack caused a fire on the Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned ship, but it remains seaworthy and there were no injuries.  The firm added that the vessel was not Israel-affiliated.  Eagle Bulk Shipping confirmed that the ship, the Gibraltar Eagle, was hit by an “unidentified projectile” but was able to leave the area.  Officials said the missile was launched by the Iran-backed Houthis.  The group later confirmed responsibility for the attack.  The U.S. Department of Transportation has told U.S. merchant ships to avoid the area until further notice.  A Houthi spokesman told Al Jazeera that the Yemeni group would expand its targeting of American vessels. “The ship doesn’t necessarily have to be heading to Israel for us to target it, it is enough for it to be American,” he said.  Officials say the U.S. conducted further strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen overnight.  Additionally, Ambrey later reported that a Malta-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was hit by a missile in the Red Sea off of Yemen.  Associated Press BBC Reuters Bloomberg Financial Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal

Explainer: Houthi attacks reveal Beijing’s commercial interests in Red Sea. China, a global trading superpower, has extensive commercial activities along the Suez Canal, the vital corridor through which China’s shipments to the west flow. China’s investments in Egypt are threatened by Houthi attacks on sea lanes in the Red Sea. Reuters

Iran claims to hit Israeli intelligence targets in Iraq.  Iran launched missiles into Iraq in revenge for Israel’s alleged killing of three members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Force serving as military advisers in Syria. The IRGC announced that its ballistic missiles had struck an Israeli Mossad spy base in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.  Kurdish officials countered that at least four civilians were killed and six injured in the strikes, none of them Israeli spies. Among the dead: wealthy Kurdish real estate mogul Peshraw Dizayee and several members of his family.  Kurdish officials said that one rocket had hit the house of a senior Kurdish intelligence official and another struck a Kurdish intelligence center. They denied that Israeli intelligence had a presence in Erbil.  Iran added that it launched additional strikes in Syria against terrorist targets, including Islamic State operations.  Wall Street Journal  Reuters  Al Jazeera Washington Post Bloomberg

Israeli Military Nearing End of Worst Phase of Gaza Fighting?  Maybe.  The Israeli military is close to wrapping up its most intensive phase of fighting against Hamas in Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said yesterday. He said the intense phase is complete in northern Gaza and close to done in the south, around Khan Younis.  “In north Khan Younis, in south Khan Younis, in east Khan Younis, in all of these places, the battalion structure [of Hamas] has been dismantled and the Khan Younis brigade in practice is slowly coming apart as a fighting force,” he said.  That hopeful message might be premature.  Asked about Gallant’s assessment, Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that winding down the fight in south Gaza “will take us time.” The problem: clearing Hamas’ extensive tunnel network.  Additionally, residents in northern Gaza report that Israeli tanks have reentered areas they left last week. Israeli forces said they killed dozens of Hamas fighters on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip overnight.  Gaza health authorities said Israeli bombing killed 158 people in the enclave over the last 24 hours.  Wall Street Journal New York Times

Israel Unearths More of a Subterranean Fortress Under Gaza.  Israeli officials and soldiers as well as U.S. officials say they have been surprised by the scope, depth, and quality of Hamas’s tunnels underneath Gaza. The Israeli military now believes there are far more tunnels to be discovered. Last month, the tunnel network was estimated to be about 250 miles, but now senior Israeli defense officials are saying it could be between 350 and 450 miles. An Israeli official said destroying the tunnels is not an easy task and that it could take years to eliminate them. New York Times

Hamas video displays dead hostages, blames Israeli shellingHamas taunted Israelis with a new video that appeared to show the dead bodies of Israeli hostage Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38. The video showed a third hostage, Noa Argamani, 26, apparently reading a script accusing Israeli strikes of killing the men. The video seemed intended to inflict maximum pain by including clips of the two men speaking to a camera, then showing their corpses. Israeli officials denied the bombardment of Gaza was responsible for their deaths .   Reuters  New York Times BBC Times of Israel  

Palestinian attackers kill two in Israel car-ramming.  A 70-year-old woman was killed and 17 other people injured yesterday when two Palestinian men hijacked two cars and rammed pedestrians in the Israeli town of Ra’anana, 12 miles northeast of Tel Aviv. According to the New York Times, Shin Bet, Israel’s FBI, said the suspects, kinsmen Ahmad Zidat, 25, and Mahmoud Zidat, 44, were Palestinians from the West Bank village of Bani Naim and had been barred from entering Israel.  Hamas did not take credit for the attack but praised the pair as “heroes” acting out “a natural response to the occupation’s massacres and aggression against the Palestinian people.”  BBC  

Why Sunak approved U.K. strikes on Houthis.  Speaking to skeptical members of Parliament, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak defended sending four Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets to join the U.S.-led attack on Houthi targets in Yemen. Pressed to explain why he didn’t clear his decision with lawmakers, Sunak said the strikes were “limited, not escalatory” and essential to protect British and international shipping. He said British jets destroyed 13 launch sites for drones and ballistic missiles and did not inflict civilian casualties.  Sunak added that Britain seeks to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea and that the strikes on the Houthis were a “proportionate” response to the group’s attacks in the region.  Associated Press BBC New York Times Bloomberg 

ANALYSIS — Hamas beat the blockade to acquire new arms from many sources.  Hamas had amassed a massive arsenal of weapons from around the world, much of it smuggled past a 17-year embargo, an Associated Press analysis of videos and photos taken in Gaza determined.  Many of the images show relatively new weapons.  Experts note that most of the arms were made in Russia, China, or Iran, but evidence shows Hamas is also using weapons made in North Korea and former Warsaw Pact countries.  Associated Press Politico

Israel’s Appetite for War Against Hezbollah Grows.  Israel’s appetite for war against Hezbollah has been growing recently as the two sides have traded fire almost daily. One official with knowledge of the matter said the Lebanese government has told several ministries and hospitals to be on high alert for the outbreak of war. Ryan Bohl, a Middle East analyst with the RANE Network, told Bloomberg TV several days ago that it is possible Israel might escalate its campaign against Hezbollah into “a much bigger war than either side intends.”  Bloomberg

U.S. Senate to Vote on Potential Freeze to Israel Aid as some Democrats Question Conduct of War.  The Congressional consensus over aid to Israel that was evident in the days following the Hamas attack on October 7 has begun to fray amid concern over how Israel is conducting the war. Some Democrats critical of the toll the war is taking on the population in Gaza are pushing to limit or place strict conditions on more aid to Israel. The Senate is set to vote today on a resolution that would freeze U.S. security assistance to Israel unless the State Department produces a report within 30 days after examining whether Israel has committed human rights violations. The measure, introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is seen as having little chance of passing, but it is only one of several measures proposed recently by lawmakers concerned over Israel’s conduct of the war. New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine front line troops on defense. In an interview with Reuters, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the ground commander in Ukraine, said his forces are focused on defense along the eastern stretch of the 600-mile front.  "Our goals remain unchanged: holding our positions ... exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum losses," Syrskyi, Ukraine's number two commander, said. Reuters

Russian airstrikes aim to stunt growth of Ukraine’s arms industry. As U.S. and European arms shipments dwindle and American conservatives balk at supplying more, Kyiv is desperately ramping up its domestic munitions industry. Russia has seen an opportunity to cripple its progress. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military spy agency, told the RBC-Ukraine news site that Russia has recently focused its air attacks on the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.  "Indeed, in December there was the most massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Shahed type," he said, adding that Russia had swarmed 770-780 of the drones at those sites. During late December, Russia launched one of its fiercest bombardments of Ukraine, concentrating its weapons-making capability.   Reuters

Ukraine drone attack on Voronezh causes state of emergencyA drone launched from Ukraine wounded a young girl and damaged several buildings in Voronezh, throwing the city into a state of emergency, Mayor Vadim Kstenin said on Telegram. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed to have destroyed five drones and intercepted three drones in the Voronezh region and intercepted another four drones in the neighboring Belgorod region.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says ‘time is running out’ for U.S. aid.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned on Monday that “time is running out” for U.S. lawmakers to reach a deal on new military aid for Ukraine.  House Republicans continue to oppose $60 billion in proposed security assistance for Ukraine. Kuleba said that the cost of supporting Ukraine now is much lower than the “price of fixing the mess in the world if Ukraine loses.”  He added that if the West shows it is unable to stop Russia in Ukraine, it cannot stop aggressors in “other parts of the world.”  Kyiv Independent

Switzerland to host Ukraine peace summit.  Switzerland on Monday agreed to host a global peace summit on Ukraine at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  The Swiss government said further details are still being worked out.  Zelensky did not provide an extensive list of desired participants, but he signaled that he wants Global South countries and China present.  Reuters  Bloomberg Associated Press 

Russia, Iran seeking military-technological treaty.  Russia and Iran are reportedly set to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to bolster bilateral military and technical cooperation. The treaty aims to strengthen military-technological cooperation amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on getting weaponry and military supplies to Moscow. Top Russian and Iranian diplomats have been engaged on specifics of the agreement, involving trade, economic development, transport, and logistics. Further details and a timeframe for the treaty remain undisclosed. Reports on the deal come as Russia is reportedly planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, in addition to drones and other weaponry Tehran already reportedly provides.  Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War 

Russia moves to crack down on criticism of war ahead of elections.  Russian lawmakers proposed a bill enabling the confiscation of personal property, such as computers and mobile phones, from individuals convicted of spreading "fake news" about Russia's war in Ukraine. The bill targets activities "against the security of the state" and is framed as an effort to curb opposition, especially amid growing protests advocating for the demobilization of Russian troops from Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War sees this as a censorship move ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential election, aiming to suppress dissent and silence concerns about the war.  Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin leaves hospitalDefense Secretary Lloyd Austin left Walter Reed National Military Medical Center Monday after a two-week stay for complications after surgery. He’ll recuperate and work from home, doctors said.  Austin has come under intense fire for keeping his serious medical condition secret, even from President Biden. He had surgery for prostate cancer Dec. 22, went home and worked there until Jan. 1, when he was stricken with intense pain, was returned to the hospital in an ambulance and placed in intensive care.  The White House did not learn he was in the hospital until Jan. 4, at a time when U.S. planes had launched a bombing campaign on Houthi positions in Yemen and the Israel-Hamas war was threatening to escalate. Lawmakers from both parties have called on Austin to resign, but Biden has stood by him. Washington Post  Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

Colombia extends cease-fire with FARC-EMC rebel groupThe deadline was to expire this week.  President Gustavo Petro signed a decree Sunday extending the cease-fire to July 15, so peace negotiations can continue.  The group did not join a 2016 peace deal between the Colombian government and the main FARC guerilla force. Critics say the rebels used cease fire deals with the military to recruit, kidnap and extort civilians and raise money.  Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

North Korea’s Kim says reunification impossible, urges designation of South Korea as primary enemy.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that unification with South Korea is impossible, accusing Seoul of seeking the collapse of his regime and calling for constitutional changes designating South Korea as the “primary foe.”  He also warned that while North Korea does not seek to start a war, it will be ready for conflict if it cannot be avoided.  Kim also announced the closure of three organizations responsible for handling unification and inter-Korean tourism as part of efforts to sever ties with South Korea.  Kim’s rhetoric and actions come amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula following a series of North Korean missile tests and other assertive moves.  Reuters Associated Press 

Xi says Beijing must ‘win the hearts’ of people in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan.  Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the Chinese Communist Party to "win the hearts" of people in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In an article set to be published by Qiushi, a magazine of the party’s Central Committee, Xi outlined a 12-point strategy to develop patriotic forces and enhance national awareness in the three places, with special focus on opposing “Taiwan independence separatist activities” and promoting reunification. This comes after an independence-leaning candidate won Taiwan's presidential election. The article is titled "Important thoughts of the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the party’s united front work in the new era."  South China Morning Post

China’s FM reaffirms position on Taiwan.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the election of Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te does not change the “basic fact” that there is one China and that Taiwan is part of it, adding that the vote does not alter the “prevailing consensus” of the international community to adhere to the one-China principle.  Wang added that Taiwan independence has not been possible in the past and “certainly won’t be possible in the future.”  Wang’s comments largely repeat Beijing’s rhetoric towards Taiwan, but they are notable as a response to the results of Taiwan’s election.  South China Morning Post

ANALYSIS — China remains watchful after Taiwan election.  China is maintaining a relatively muted response to the election of Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te.  China is not escalating military action, imposing new trade tariffs, or engaging in harsh rhetoric to punish Taiwan for the vote.  China’s most direct response appears to be adding on to Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation by getting Nauru to switch formal recognition to Beijing, which is mostly symbolic.  China may be taking this cautious approach to avoid disrupting the balance in ties it has recently reached with the U.S., especially ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

China may also wait to see how the U.S. responds to Lai once he replaces outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen on May 20.  Experts add that China is also taking time to assess why its preferred party, the Kuomintang, did not win the election.  Meanwhile, Lai has expressed openness to talks with China.  Reuters Bloomberg

ANALYSIS — Taiwan’s Lai faces tough legacy of outgoing President Tsai.  Experts say that outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s record on cross-strait relations may create challenges for the independence-leaning President-elect Lai Ching-te when he takes office in May.  Tensions with Beijing have escalated after Tsai became leader, though she has shown willingness to compromise and prevent the cross-strait situation from worsening, demonstrated in her insistence on maintaining the status quo and not declaring independence.  It is unclear if Lai will take a more pro-independence stance.  However, experts note that he will be a minority leader since his Democratic Progressive Party failed to maintain the parliamentary majority that Tsai enjoyed, potentially forcing him to have a more careful approach to avoid provoking Beijing.  South China Morning Post

Beijing warns Philippines against support for Taiwan following election. China summoned the Philippine ambassador and warned the country against "playing with fire" after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. congratulated Taiwan's president-elect, Lai Ching-te, on his election victory. China strongly opposed Marcos' remarks, which it deemed a violation of the One China principle and interference in its internal affairs. The Philippines reaffirmed its "One China policy," emphasizing that Marcos' message aimed to recognize the Philippines and Taiwan's mutual interests. This incident adds to the ongoing tensions between the Philippines and China as Manila strengthens its ties with the United States. Several leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, congratulated Lai and called for a peaceful resolution of Taiwan Strait tensions. Taiwan expressed gratitude for Marcos' message, highlighting shared values between the two nations.  Reuters Bloomberg 

U.S. delegation urges Taiwan’s Lai to keep calm and carry on with the cross-strait status quo.  A delegation of former US officials led by Stephen Hadley and James Steinberg visited Taiwan in a show of support for the island after the election of President-elect William Lai Ching-te. The visit aimed to assure continuity in US-Taiwan relations under the new administration and maintain the cross-strait status quo with some analysts saying the trip was a pre-emptive move on the part of the U.S.  While Taiwan has strengthened ties with the US under President Tsai Ing-wen, Beijing has pressured Taipei to accept its one-China principle. The visit aimed to prevent any unexpected changes in cross-strait relations and reassure the Biden administration's position on Taiwan's independence. The move also signals the US's desire to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing.  South China Morning Post

ANALYSIS — South China Sea riskier than Taiwan Strait.  Experts warn that the risk of conflict is higher in the South China Sea than in the Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan has built up defenses to deter conflict and a war over the island would cause major disruptions to the global economy, which would impact China.  In contrast, China has stronger military capabilities over the Philippines in the South China Sea, which could embolden Beijing’s activities in the disputed waterway.  A conflict in the area would also be relatively more confined.  Manila continues to resist Chinese activities in the region, in part due to the strong domestic political support in the Philippines to strongly defend its maritime sovereignty.  Experts add that accidents are more likely to happen in the South China Sea with increased activity.  In both cases, U.S. commitment to Indo-Pacific partners will be tested.  South China Morning Post

Chinese spy set to get visa for U.K. brokerage.  The compliance officer of a now-closed UK foreign exchange brokerage, Goldenway Global Investments, said he was instructed to obtain a visa for an employee who was an alleged “Chinese espionage agent.”  The supposed spy has since been deported.  The former compliance officer detailed the incident in a whistleblower suit.  The case adds to a series of espionage-related incidents involving the UK and China.  Goldenway and the Chinese Embassy in London did not immediately comment on the matter.  Financial Times

Europe

British government considering terrorist label, ban on Islamic groupParliament will debate this week a proposal forwarded by the Home Office to make the Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir illegal under U.K. terrorism law. The Lebanon-based group, which operates in more than 30 countries, including the U.K., U.S. and Canada, has organized rallies in London alongside pro-Palestinian marches. Civil libertarians have objected that the group is non-violent. Politico AP  New York Times

Putin and India's Narendra Modi share friendly call.  The two leaders wished each other well, wished each other success in India’s upcoming parliamentary elections and Russia’s presidential ballot. Reuters 

Middle East

Turkey launches airstrikes against militants in Iraq, Syria on Monday night.  Turkey conducted overnight airstrikes, destroying 23 targets in northern Iraq and Syria, targeting Kurdish militants. The strikes came after nine Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants in northern Iraq. The defense ministry stated that the targets included caves, shelters, tunnels, ammunition warehouses, and facilities used by the PKK. Many militants were "neutralized," a term often meaning killed. The PKK, considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU, began its insurgency against Turkey in 1984, resulting in over 40,000 deaths. The conflict has shifted from southeastern Turkey to northern Iraq's mountainous regions.  Reuters 

Egypt thwarts drug smuggling attempt on border with Israel.  Egypt thwarted a drug smuggling attempt near the border with Israel, close to the Al-Awja (Nitzana) crossing, which is used for inspecting aid deliveries to Gaza. One person was killed and six drug smugglers were arrested in the incident in the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli officials said suspects were likely trying to smuggle drugs from Egypt into Israel. Security incidents on the Egyptian-Israeli border are rare, though there is a long history of smuggling in the area. The Al-Awja-Nitzana crossing is around 25 miles south of the Rafah crossing, which has been the main crossing for aid into Gaza. Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel 

Sweden announces arrest of Swedish national in Iran.  The Swedish foreign ministry said yesterday Iran arrested a Swedish man earlier this month and that he remains in Iranian custody. The ministry would not provide details of the arrest, but TV4 television reported the man was arrested on suspicion of being an accessory to murder and weapons offenses in connection with a fatal shooting last summer. The Swedish embassy in Tehran is in touch with Iranian authorities over the arrest. Relations between the two countries have been tense since 2019 when Sweden arrested Hamid Noury, a former Iranian official for that it said was his part in the mass execution and torture of political prisoners in the 1980s. Late last month, Iran said it would continue to seek the release of Noury, who was sentenced to life in prison in Sweden. And also last month, Iran began trying Johan Floderus, a Swedish national and European Union employee who has been imprisoned since April 2022 on charges of spying for Israel and corruption. Reuters Barrons 

Africa

US military says it seized Iranian-made missile parts en route to Houthi rebels.  More details are being released regarding the recent operation where US Navy Seals seized Iranian-made missile parts and other weaponry from a ship bound for Yemen's Houthi rebels. The raid took place in the Arabian Sea and involved two Seals going missing during rough seas.  The two Seals are both still missing.  The seized weapons reportedly included components for ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as air defense parts. These weapons are believed to have been similar to those used by the Houthis in recent attacks on international merchant ships in the Red Sea. The operation marked the first U.S. Navy seizure of advanced Iranian-made ballistic components since 2019. It is unclear where the vessel originated and who was on board. The vessel's crew was taken into custody and was sunk as it was deemed "unsafe." South China Morning Post Washington Post

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese Internet giant denies PLA use of chatbot in military simulation exercise.  Baidu, the Chinese Internet services company, has denied reports its AI-powered chatbot, Ernie Bot, is linked to China’s military research sector.  A report in the South China Morning Post, citing an academic paper from a university linked to the People’s Liberation Army cyberwarfare division, said the PLA cyber component tested its own AI system on Ernie Bot and on iFlyTek’s Spark, another AI chatbot.  Baidu said in a statement that the company has not collaborated with the authors of the university paper or affiliated organizations, adding "Ernie Bot is available to and used by the general public."  The paper described an exercise in which researchers prompted Ernie Bot to produce simulated military response plans for Libyan troops responding to an attack by U.S. forces.  An initial version of the Morning Post report that described a "physical link" between Ernie Bot and the PLA division was revised to say that the PLA lab had tested its system on Baidu's AI model.  Nikkei Asia

OpenAI policy change allows for product use in national security applications.  OpenAI has made changes to its usage policy that apparently allows its AI products to be used for military applications.  Earlier versions of the policy banned OpenAI product usage for “military and warfare” purposes, a provision that has been removed from the company’s policy statement.  OpenAI offered an explanation that reiterated its ban on usage of its tools “to harm people, develop weapons” and for surveillance or actions leading to injury or property damage.  It added, however, that there are some “national security use cases that align with our mission.”  The company gave the example of its work with DARPA “to spur the creation of new cybersecurity tools to secure open source software” used to protect critical infrastructure and industry.   OpenAI spokesperson Niko Felix pointed out that a blanket prohibition on developing and using weapons remains part of the usage policy.  The changes to the OpenAI policy appeared without fanfare in a company blog post on January 10.  TechCrunch Cybernews The Intercept

South Korea unveils half-trillion dollar private sector investment in chip facilities.  The South Korean government Monday announced plans for private sector investments of nearly half a trillion dollars over the next couple of decades to create the world’s largest chipmaking complex.  South Korean tech companies, including Samsung and SK Hynix, will spearhead the program to build 13 new chip plants and three research centers to complement the existing 21 fabrication facilities.  By 2030, the cluster of facilities stretching from Pyeongtaek to Yongin will produce 7.7 million wafers each month. The newly announced investment is a sharp increase over plans first announced in 2023.  With Japan and Taiwan surging investment in their own chip sectors, the Korean government will extend substantial tax breaks to domestic chip companies.  Under the two-decade plan, Samsung will invest $378 billion and Hynix $92 billion by 2047 for chip fabrication and memory facilities, respectively.  Seoul’s government said the region also will host smaller companies for chip design and materials production with the aim of enhancing self-sufficiency in semiconductors, and increasing global market share in logic chip production to 10 percent from the current output of 3 percent.  Bloomberg

Chinese chip sector increases visits, engagements with Japanese counterparts.  Chinese firms are organizing group tours and engagements for representatives of the country’s semiconductor sector to visit and meet with Japanese counterparts.  Tours organized by the Chip Think Tank, which is backed by the Tianfeng Securities brokerage, plan an 8-day tour in late January to examine “core opportunities in Japan’s semiconductor equipment and materials industry.”  Access to a trade show and visits to over 10 Japanese chip industry facilities will be orchestrated by a semiconductor expert with 20 years of experience.  Industry tours by Chinese representatives were curtailed during the COVID pandemic but have been reenergized as a way of dealing with tightening U.S. controls on semiconductor technologies.  The Zykcyx Travel Agency based in Beijing in December offered an industry tour focused on the semiconductor trade fair, Semicon Japan, and included visits to Advantest, Japan’s largest semiconductor test equipment producer, and Disco, which supplies silicon wafer preparation equipment.  China was second only to Japan in the number of companies exhibiting at the Semicon event.  Financial Times

UK privacy regulator will examine legality of web scraping for AI training data.  The UK’s Information Commissioner Office (ICO), the country’s data protection regulator, announced Monday it is examining the legality of collecting data for generative AI models by scraping the Internet.  AI training data gathered through massive collection efforts pose a potential threat to privacy because the process relies on automated means.  Research has demonstrated that it is possible to extract training data from large language models (LLM’s) with the possibility of exposing personal information.  Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre also has warned that tactics known as prompt injection attacks could allow cyber threat actors to access protected LLM data.  In announcing its examination of web data scraping, the ICO noted “five of the six lawful bases [for processing data under British laws] are unlikely to be available for training generative AI on web-scraped data.”  The Record

Ukrainian hacker arrested for deploying crypto mining malware against U.S. cloud provider.  A “well-known” but unidentified U.S. cloud services provider had its servers infected by a Ukrainian cyber criminal who stole over $2 million in cryptocurrency in the last two years.  The 29-year-old hacker was arrested in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine as law enforcement seized computer equipment, bank cards, and other electronics.  The arrest was the result of joint efforts by Ukrainian authorities and Europol with the cooperation of the cloud services provider.  A Europol statement explained that the theft of cloud resources to mine cryptocurrencies, which involves stealing substantial server and power resources, “typically outweighs the profits.”  Europol went on to say “compromised account holders are left with huge cloud bills.”  In the Ukrainian case, the threat actor used homemade software to carry out brute force attacks.  After gaining remote access to a targeted system and deploying crypto mining malware, the hacker used more than a million virtual computers to run the malware.  The Record BleepingComputer

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief

Report for Tuesday, January 16, 2024

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10:30 AM ET, Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

U.S.-owned cargo ship near Yemen hit by Houthi missile.

North Korea’s Kim says reunification impossible, urges designation of South Korea as primary enemy.

Russia, Iran seeking military-technological treaty.

Iran claims to hit Israeli intelligence targets in Iraq. 

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

U.S.-owned cargo ship near Yemen hit by Houthi missile.  British maritime security firm Ambrey said a U.S.-owned cargo ship off the southern coast of Yemen was hit by a missile.  Ambrey said the attack caused a fire on the Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned ship, but it remains seaworthy and there were no injuries.  The firm added that the vessel was not Israel-affiliated.  Eagle Bulk Shipping confirmed that the ship, the Gibraltar Eagle, was hit by an “unidentified projectile” but was able to leave the area.  Officials said the missile was launched by the Iran-backed Houthis.  The group later confirmed responsibility for the attack.  The U.S. Department of Transportation has told U.S. merchant ships to avoid the area until further notice.  A Houthi spokesman told Al Jazeera that the Yemeni group would expand its targeting of American vessels. “The ship doesn’t necessarily have to be heading to Israel for us to target it, it is enough for it to be American,” he said.  Officials say the U.S. conducted further strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen overnight.  Additionally, Ambrey later reported that a Malta-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was hit by a missile in the Red Sea off of Yemen.  Associated Press BBC Reuters Bloomberg Financial Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal

Explainer: Houthi attacks reveal Beijing’s commercial interests in Red Sea. China, a global trading superpower, has extensive commercial activities along the Suez Canal, the vital corridor through which China’s shipments to the west flow. China’s investments in Egypt are threatened by Houthi attacks on sea lanes in the Red Sea. Reuters

Iran claims to hit Israeli intelligence targets in Iraq.  Iran launched missiles into Iraq in revenge for Israel’s alleged killing of three members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Force serving as military advisers in Syria. The IRGC announced that its ballistic missiles had struck an Israeli Mossad spy base in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.  Kurdish officials countered that at least four civilians were killed and six injured in the strikes, none of them Israeli spies. Among the dead: wealthy Kurdish real estate mogul Peshraw Dizayee and several members of his family.  Kurdish officials said that one rocket had hit the house of a senior Kurdish intelligence official and another struck a Kurdish intelligence center. They denied that Israeli intelligence had a presence in Erbil.  Iran added that it launched additional strikes in Syria against terrorist targets, including Islamic State operations.  Wall Street Journal  Reuters  Al Jazeera Washington Post Bloomberg

Israeli Military Nearing End of Worst Phase of Gaza Fighting?  Maybe.  The Israeli military is close to wrapping up its most intensive phase of fighting against Hamas in Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said yesterday. He said the intense phase is complete in northern Gaza and close to done in the south, around Khan Younis.  “In north Khan Younis, in south Khan Younis, in east Khan Younis, in all of these places, the battalion structure [of Hamas] has been dismantled and the Khan Younis brigade in practice is slowly coming apart as a fighting force,” he said.  That hopeful message might be premature.  Asked about Gallant’s assessment, Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that winding down the fight in south Gaza “will take us time.” The problem: clearing Hamas’ extensive tunnel network.  Additionally, residents in northern Gaza report that Israeli tanks have reentered areas they left last week. Israeli forces said they killed dozens of Hamas fighters on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip overnight.  Gaza health authorities said Israeli bombing killed 158 people in the enclave over the last 24 hours.  Wall Street Journal New York Times

Israel Unearths More of a Subterranean Fortress Under Gaza.  Israeli officials and soldiers as well as U.S. officials say they have been surprised by the scope, depth, and quality of Hamas’s tunnels underneath Gaza. The Israeli military now believes there are far more tunnels to be discovered. Last month, the tunnel network was estimated to be about 250 miles, but now senior Israeli defense officials are saying it could be between 350 and 450 miles. An Israeli official said destroying the tunnels is not an easy task and that it could take years to eliminate them. New York Times

Hamas video displays dead hostages, blames Israeli shellingHamas taunted Israelis with a new video that appeared to show the dead bodies of Israeli hostage Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38. The video showed a third hostage, Noa Argamani, 26, apparently reading a script accusing Israeli strikes of killing the men. The video seemed intended to inflict maximum pain by including clips of the two men speaking to a camera, then showing their corpses. Israeli officials denied the bombardment of Gaza was responsible for their deaths .   Reuters  New York Times BBC Times of Israel  

Palestinian attackers kill two in Israel car-ramming.  A 70-year-old woman was killed and 17 other people injured yesterday when two Palestinian men hijacked two cars and rammed pedestrians in the Israeli town of Ra’anana, 12 miles northeast of Tel Aviv. According to the New York Times, Shin Bet, Israel’s FBI, said the suspects, kinsmen Ahmad Zidat, 25, and Mahmoud Zidat, 44, were Palestinians from the West Bank village of Bani Naim and had been barred from entering Israel.  Hamas did not take credit for the attack but praised the pair as “heroes” acting out “a natural response to the occupation’s massacres and aggression against the Palestinian people.”  BBC  

Why Sunak approved U.K. strikes on Houthis.  Speaking to skeptical members of Parliament, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak defended sending four Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets to join the U.S.-led attack on Houthi targets in Yemen. Pressed to explain why he didn’t clear his decision with lawmakers, Sunak said the strikes were “limited, not escalatory” and essential to protect British and international shipping. He said British jets destroyed 13 launch sites for drones and ballistic missiles and did not inflict civilian casualties.  Sunak added that Britain seeks to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea and that the strikes on the Houthis were a “proportionate” response to the group’s attacks in the region.  Associated Press BBC New York Times Bloomberg 

ANALYSIS — Hamas beat the blockade to acquire new arms from many sources.  Hamas had amassed a massive arsenal of weapons from around the world, much of it smuggled past a 17-year embargo, an Associated Press analysis of videos and photos taken in Gaza determined.  Many of the images show relatively new weapons.  Experts note that most of the arms were made in Russia, China, or Iran, but evidence shows Hamas is also using weapons made in North Korea and former Warsaw Pact countries.  Associated Press Politico

Israel’s Appetite for War Against Hezbollah Grows.  Israel’s appetite for war against Hezbollah has been growing recently as the two sides have traded fire almost daily. One official with knowledge of the matter said the Lebanese government has told several ministries and hospitals to be on high alert for the outbreak of war. Ryan Bohl, a Middle East analyst with the RANE Network, told Bloomberg TV several days ago that it is possible Israel might escalate its campaign against Hezbollah into “a much bigger war than either side intends.”  Bloomberg

U.S. Senate to Vote on Potential Freeze to Israel Aid as some Democrats Question Conduct of War.  The Congressional consensus over aid to Israel that was evident in the days following the Hamas attack on October 7 has begun to fray amid concern over how Israel is conducting the war. Some Democrats critical of the toll the war is taking on the population in Gaza are pushing to limit or place strict conditions on more aid to Israel. The Senate is set to vote today on a resolution that would freeze U.S. security assistance to Israel unless the State Department produces a report within 30 days after examining whether Israel has committed human rights violations. The measure, introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is seen as having little chance of passing, but it is only one of several measures proposed recently by lawmakers concerned over Israel’s conduct of the war. New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine front line troops on defense. In an interview with Reuters, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the ground commander in Ukraine, said his forces are focused on defense along the eastern stretch of the 600-mile front.  "Our goals remain unchanged: holding our positions ... exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum losses," Syrskyi, Ukraine's number two commander, said. Reuters

Russian airstrikes aim to stunt growth of Ukraine’s arms industry. As U.S. and European arms shipments dwindle and American conservatives balk at supplying more, Kyiv is desperately ramping up its domestic munitions industry. Russia has seen an opportunity to cripple its progress. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military spy agency, told the RBC-Ukraine news site that Russia has recently focused its air attacks on the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.  "Indeed, in December there was the most massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Shahed type," he said, adding that Russia had swarmed 770-780 of the drones at those sites. During late December, Russia launched one of its fiercest bombardments of Ukraine, concentrating its weapons-making capability.   Reuters

Ukraine drone attack on Voronezh causes state of emergencyA drone launched from Ukraine wounded a young girl and damaged several buildings in Voronezh, throwing the city into a state of emergency, Mayor Vadim Kstenin said on Telegram. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed to have destroyed five drones and intercepted three drones in the Voronezh region and intercepted another four drones in the neighboring Belgorod region.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says ‘time is running out’ for U.S. aid.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned on Monday that “time is running out” for U.S. lawmakers to reach a deal on new military aid for Ukraine.  House Republicans continue to oppose $60 billion in proposed security assistance for Ukraine. Kuleba said that the cost of supporting Ukraine now is much lower than the “price of fixing the mess in the world if Ukraine loses.”  He added that if the West shows it is unable to stop Russia in Ukraine, it cannot stop aggressors in “other parts of the world.”  Kyiv Independent

Switzerland to host Ukraine peace summit.  Switzerland on Monday agreed to host a global peace summit on Ukraine at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  The Swiss government said further details are still being worked out.  Zelensky did not provide an extensive list of desired participants, but he signaled that he wants Global South countries and China present.  Reuters  Bloomberg Associated Press 

Russia, Iran seeking military-technological treaty.  Russia and Iran are reportedly set to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to bolster bilateral military and technical cooperation. The treaty aims to strengthen military-technological cooperation amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on getting weaponry and military supplies to Moscow. Top Russian and Iranian diplomats have been engaged on specifics of the agreement, involving trade, economic development, transport, and logistics. Further details and a timeframe for the treaty remain undisclosed. Reports on the deal come as Russia is reportedly planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, in addition to drones and other weaponry Tehran already reportedly provides.  Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War 

Russia moves to crack down on criticism of war ahead of elections.  Russian lawmakers proposed a bill enabling the confiscation of personal property, such as computers and mobile phones, from individuals convicted of spreading "fake news" about Russia's war in Ukraine. The bill targets activities "against the security of the state" and is framed as an effort to curb opposition, especially amid growing protests advocating for the demobilization of Russian troops from Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War sees this as a censorship move ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential election, aiming to suppress dissent and silence concerns about the war.  Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin leaves hospitalDefense Secretary Lloyd Austin left Walter Reed National Military Medical Center Monday after a two-week stay for complications after surgery. He’ll recuperate and work from home, doctors said.  Austin has come under intense fire for keeping his serious medical condition secret, even from President Biden. He had surgery for prostate cancer Dec. 22, went home and worked there until Jan. 1, when he was stricken with intense pain, was returned to the hospital in an ambulance and placed in intensive care.  The White House did not learn he was in the hospital until Jan. 4, at a time when U.S. planes had launched a bombing campaign on Houthi positions in Yemen and the Israel-Hamas war was threatening to escalate. Lawmakers from both parties have called on Austin to resign, but Biden has stood by him. Washington Post  Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

Colombia extends cease-fire with FARC-EMC rebel groupThe deadline was to expire this week.  President Gustavo Petro signed a decree Sunday extending the cease-fire to July 15, so peace negotiations can continue.  The group did not join a 2016 peace deal between the Colombian government and the main FARC guerilla force. Critics say the rebels used cease fire deals with the military to recruit, kidnap and extort civilians and raise money.  Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

North Korea’s Kim says reunification impossible, urges designation of South Korea as primary enemy.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that unification with South Korea is impossible, accusing Seoul of seeking the collapse of his regime and calling for constitutional changes designating South Korea as the “primary foe.”  He also warned that while North Korea does not seek to start a war, it will be ready for conflict if it cannot be avoided.  Kim also announced the closure of three organizations responsible for handling unification and inter-Korean tourism as part of efforts to sever ties with South Korea.  Kim’s rhetoric and actions come amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula following a series of North Korean missile tests and other assertive moves.  Reuters Associated Press 

Xi says Beijing must ‘win the hearts’ of people in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan.  Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the Chinese Communist Party to "win the hearts" of people in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In an article set to be published by Qiushi, a magazine of the party’s Central Committee, Xi outlined a 12-point strategy to develop patriotic forces and enhance national awareness in the three places, with special focus on opposing “Taiwan independence separatist activities” and promoting reunification. This comes after an independence-leaning candidate won Taiwan's presidential election. The article is titled "Important thoughts of the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the party’s united front work in the new era."  South China Morning Post

China’s FM reaffirms position on Taiwan.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the election of Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te does not change the “basic fact” that there is one China and that Taiwan is part of it, adding that the vote does not alter the “prevailing consensus” of the international community to adhere to the one-China principle.  Wang added that Taiwan independence has not been possible in the past and “certainly won’t be possible in the future.”  Wang’s comments largely repeat Beijing’s rhetoric towards Taiwan, but they are notable as a response to the results of Taiwan’s election.  South China Morning Post

ANALYSIS — China remains watchful after Taiwan election.  China is maintaining a relatively muted response to the election of Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te.  China is not escalating military action, imposing new trade tariffs, or engaging in harsh rhetoric to punish Taiwan for the vote.  China’s most direct response appears to be adding on to Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation by getting Nauru to switch formal recognition to Beijing, which is mostly symbolic.  China may be taking this cautious approach to avoid disrupting the balance in ties it has recently reached with the U.S., especially ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

China may also wait to see how the U.S. responds to Lai once he replaces outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen on May 20.  Experts add that China is also taking time to assess why its preferred party, the Kuomintang, did not win the election.  Meanwhile, Lai has expressed openness to talks with China.  Reuters Bloomberg

ANALYSIS — Taiwan’s Lai faces tough legacy of outgoing President Tsai.  Experts say that outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s record on cross-strait relations may create challenges for the independence-leaning President-elect Lai Ching-te when he takes office in May.  Tensions with Beijing have escalated after Tsai became leader, though she has shown willingness to compromise and prevent the cross-strait situation from worsening, demonstrated in her insistence on maintaining the status quo and not declaring independence.  It is unclear if Lai will take a more pro-independence stance.  However, experts note that he will be a minority leader since his Democratic Progressive Party failed to maintain the parliamentary majority that Tsai enjoyed, potentially forcing him to have a more careful approach to avoid provoking Beijing.  South China Morning Post

Beijing warns Philippines against support for Taiwan following election. China summoned the Philippine ambassador and warned the country against "playing with fire" after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. congratulated Taiwan's president-elect, Lai Ching-te, on his election victory. China strongly opposed Marcos' remarks, which it deemed a violation of the One China principle and interference in its internal affairs. The Philippines reaffirmed its "One China policy," emphasizing that Marcos' message aimed to recognize the Philippines and Taiwan's mutual interests. This incident adds to the ongoing tensions between the Philippines and China as Manila strengthens its ties with the United States. Several leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, congratulated Lai and called for a peaceful resolution of Taiwan Strait tensions. Taiwan expressed gratitude for Marcos' message, highlighting shared values between the two nations.  Reuters Bloomberg 

U.S. delegation urges Taiwan’s Lai to keep calm and carry on with the cross-strait status quo.  A delegation of former US officials led by Stephen Hadley and James Steinberg visited Taiwan in a show of support for the island after the election of President-elect William Lai Ching-te. The visit aimed to assure continuity in US-Taiwan relations under the new administration and maintain the cross-strait status quo with some analysts saying the trip was a pre-emptive move on the part of the U.S.  While Taiwan has strengthened ties with the US under President Tsai Ing-wen, Beijing has pressured Taipei to accept its one-China principle. The visit aimed to prevent any unexpected changes in cross-strait relations and reassure the Biden administration's position on Taiwan's independence. The move also signals the US's desire to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing.  South China Morning Post

ANALYSIS — South China Sea riskier than Taiwan Strait.  Experts warn that the risk of conflict is higher in the South China Sea than in the Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan has built up defenses to deter conflict and a war over the island would cause major disruptions to the global economy, which would impact China.  In contrast, China has stronger military capabilities over the Philippines in the South China Sea, which could embolden Beijing’s activities in the disputed waterway.  A conflict in the area would also be relatively more confined.  Manila continues to resist Chinese activities in the region, in part due to the strong domestic political support in the Philippines to strongly defend its maritime sovereignty.  Experts add that accidents are more likely to happen in the South China Sea with increased activity.  In both cases, U.S. commitment to Indo-Pacific partners will be tested.  South China Morning Post

Chinese spy set to get visa for U.K. brokerage.  The compliance officer of a now-closed UK foreign exchange brokerage, Goldenway Global Investments, said he was instructed to obtain a visa for an employee who was an alleged “Chinese espionage agent.”  The supposed spy has since been deported.  The former compliance officer detailed the incident in a whistleblower suit.  The case adds to a series of espionage-related incidents involving the UK and China.  Goldenway and the Chinese Embassy in London did not immediately comment on the matter.  Financial Times

Europe

British government considering terrorist label, ban on Islamic groupParliament will debate this week a proposal forwarded by the Home Office to make the Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir illegal under U.K. terrorism law. The Lebanon-based group, which operates in more than 30 countries, including the U.K., U.S. and Canada, has organized rallies in London alongside pro-Palestinian marches. Civil libertarians have objected that the group is non-violent. Politico AP  New York Times

Putin and India's Narendra Modi share friendly call.  The two leaders wished each other well, wished each other success in India’s upcoming parliamentary elections and Russia’s presidential ballot. Reuters 

Middle East

Turkey launches airstrikes against militants in Iraq, Syria on Monday night.  Turkey conducted overnight airstrikes, destroying 23 targets in northern Iraq and Syria, targeting Kurdish militants. The strikes came after nine Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants in northern Iraq. The defense ministry stated that the targets included caves, shelters, tunnels, ammunition warehouses, and facilities used by the PKK. Many militants were "neutralized," a term often meaning killed. The PKK, considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU, began its insurgency against Turkey in 1984, resulting in over 40,000 deaths. The conflict has shifted from southeastern Turkey to northern Iraq's mountainous regions.  Reuters 

Egypt thwarts drug smuggling attempt on border with Israel.  Egypt thwarted a drug smuggling attempt near the border with Israel, close to the Al-Awja (Nitzana) crossing, which is used for inspecting aid deliveries to Gaza. One person was killed and six drug smugglers were arrested in the incident in the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli officials said suspects were likely trying to smuggle drugs from Egypt into Israel. Security incidents on the Egyptian-Israeli border are rare, though there is a long history of smuggling in the area. The Al-Awja-Nitzana crossing is around 25 miles south of the Rafah crossing, which has been the main crossing for aid into Gaza. Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel 

Sweden announces arrest of Swedish national in Iran.  The Swedish foreign ministry said yesterday Iran arrested a Swedish man earlier this month and that he remains in Iranian custody. The ministry would not provide details of the arrest, but TV4 television reported the man was arrested on suspicion of being an accessory to murder and weapons offenses in connection with a fatal shooting last summer. The Swedish embassy in Tehran is in touch with Iranian authorities over the arrest. Relations between the two countries have been tense since 2019 when Sweden arrested Hamid Noury, a former Iranian official for that it said was his part in the mass execution and torture of political prisoners in the 1980s. Late last month, Iran said it would continue to seek the release of Noury, who was sentenced to life in prison in Sweden. And also last month, Iran began trying Johan Floderus, a Swedish national and European Union employee who has been imprisoned since April 2022 on charges of spying for Israel and corruption. Reuters Barrons 

Africa

US military says it seized Iranian-made missile parts en route to Houthi rebels.  More details are being released regarding the recent operation where US Navy Seals seized Iranian-made missile parts and other weaponry from a ship bound for Yemen's Houthi rebels. The raid took place in the Arabian Sea and involved two Seals going missing during rough seas.  The two Seals are both still missing.  The seized weapons reportedly included components for ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as air defense parts. These weapons are believed to have been similar to those used by the Houthis in recent attacks on international merchant ships in the Red Sea. The operation marked the first U.S. Navy seizure of advanced Iranian-made ballistic components since 2019. It is unclear where the vessel originated and who was on board. The vessel's crew was taken into custody and was sunk as it was deemed "unsafe." South China Morning Post Washington Post

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese Internet giant denies PLA use of chatbot in military simulation exercise.  Baidu, the Chinese Internet services company, has denied reports its AI-powered chatbot, Ernie Bot, is linked to China’s military research sector.  A report in the South China Morning Post, citing an academic paper from a university linked to the People’s Liberation Army cyberwarfare division, said the PLA cyber component tested its own AI system on Ernie Bot and on iFlyTek’s Spark, another AI chatbot.  Baidu said in a statement that the company has not collaborated with the authors of the university paper or affiliated organizations, adding "Ernie Bot is available to and used by the general public."  The paper described an exercise in which researchers prompted Ernie Bot to produce simulated military response plans for Libyan troops responding to an attack by U.S. forces.  An initial version of the Morning Post report that described a "physical link" between Ernie Bot and the PLA division was revised to say that the PLA lab had tested its system on Baidu's AI model.  Nikkei Asia

OpenAI policy change allows for product use in national security applications.  OpenAI has made changes to its usage policy that apparently allows its AI products to be used for military applications.  Earlier versions of the policy banned OpenAI product usage for “military and warfare” purposes, a provision that has been removed from the company’s policy statement.  OpenAI offered an explanation that reiterated its ban on usage of its tools “to harm people, develop weapons” and for surveillance or actions leading to injury or property damage.  It added, however, that there are some “national security use cases that align with our mission.”  The company gave the example of its work with DARPA “to spur the creation of new cybersecurity tools to secure open source software” used to protect critical infrastructure and industry.   OpenAI spokesperson Niko Felix pointed out that a blanket prohibition on developing and using weapons remains part of the usage policy.  The changes to the OpenAI policy appeared without fanfare in a company blog post on January 10.  TechCrunch Cybernews The Intercept

South Korea unveils half-trillion dollar private sector investment in chip facilities.  The South Korean government Monday announced plans for private sector investments of nearly half a trillion dollars over the next couple of decades to create the world’s largest chipmaking complex.  South Korean tech companies, including Samsung and SK Hynix, will spearhead the program to build 13 new chip plants and three research centers to complement the existing 21 fabrication facilities.  By 2030, the cluster of facilities stretching from Pyeongtaek to Yongin will produce 7.7 million wafers each month. The newly announced investment is a sharp increase over plans first announced in 2023.  With Japan and Taiwan surging investment in their own chip sectors, the Korean government will extend substantial tax breaks to domestic chip companies.  Under the two-decade plan, Samsung will invest $378 billion and Hynix $92 billion by 2047 for chip fabrication and memory facilities, respectively.  Seoul’s government said the region also will host smaller companies for chip design and materials production with the aim of enhancing self-sufficiency in semiconductors, and increasing global market share in logic chip production to 10 percent from the current output of 3 percent.  Bloomberg

Chinese chip sector increases visits, engagements with Japanese counterparts.  Chinese firms are organizing group tours and engagements for representatives of the country’s semiconductor sector to visit and meet with Japanese counterparts.  Tours organized by the Chip Think Tank, which is backed by the Tianfeng Securities brokerage, plan an 8-day tour in late January to examine “core opportunities in Japan’s semiconductor equipment and materials industry.”  Access to a trade show and visits to over 10 Japanese chip industry facilities will be orchestrated by a semiconductor expert with 20 years of experience.  Industry tours by Chinese representatives were curtailed during the COVID pandemic but have been reenergized as a way of dealing with tightening U.S. controls on semiconductor technologies.  The Zykcyx Travel Agency based in Beijing in December offered an industry tour focused on the semiconductor trade fair, Semicon Japan, and included visits to Advantest, Japan’s largest semiconductor test equipment producer, and Disco, which supplies silicon wafer preparation equipment.  China was second only to Japan in the number of companies exhibiting at the Semicon event.  Financial Times

UK privacy regulator will examine legality of web scraping for AI training data.  The UK’s Information Commissioner Office (ICO), the country’s data protection regulator, announced Monday it is examining the legality of collecting data for generative AI models by scraping the Internet.  AI training data gathered through massive collection efforts pose a potential threat to privacy because the process relies on automated means.  Research has demonstrated that it is possible to extract training data from large language models (LLM’s) with the possibility of exposing personal information.  Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre also has warned that tactics known as prompt injection attacks could allow cyber threat actors to access protected LLM data.  In announcing its examination of web data scraping, the ICO noted “five of the six lawful bases [for processing data under British laws] are unlikely to be available for training generative AI on web-scraped data.”  The Record

Ukrainian hacker arrested for deploying crypto mining malware against U.S. cloud provider.  A “well-known” but unidentified U.S. cloud services provider had its servers infected by a Ukrainian cyber criminal who stole over $2 million in cryptocurrency in the last two years.  The 29-year-old hacker was arrested in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine as law enforcement seized computer equipment, bank cards, and other electronics.  The arrest was the result of joint efforts by Ukrainian authorities and Europol with the cooperation of the cloud services provider.  A Europol statement explained that the theft of cloud resources to mine cryptocurrencies, which involves stealing substantial server and power resources, “typically outweighs the profits.”  Europol went on to say “compromised account holders are left with huge cloud bills.”  In the Ukrainian case, the threat actor used homemade software to carry out brute force attacks.  After gaining remote access to a targeted system and deploying crypto mining malware, the hacker used more than a million virtual computers to run the malware.  The Record BleepingComputer

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

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