Report for Tuesday, January 14, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Hamas expected to release 33 hostages if ceasefire deal’s first phase happens

Ukraine strikes Russia with massive drone and ATACMS attack

A Wider War Has Already Started in Europe

Greenland to Trump: We’re Not for Sale but Let’s Talk Business

Philippines on edge after China deploys 'monster ship' to fiercely contested shoal

Offensive cyber operations to counter foreign attacks draw support, but cautions as well

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Coming Soon: A Supreme Court Ruling on TikTok, China and National Security.  Does Chinese ownership of the wildly popular TikTok app pose a national security risk to the United States? And if so, what should be done about it? The twin questions are at the center of the debate over a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless it found a new, non-Chinese owner. We spoke to two members of The Cipher Brief expert network – Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery (Ret.), a former Executive Director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, and Glenn Gerstell, former General Counsel at the National Security Agency about the TikTok debate. The two agree on the national security risks in play; they differ on the merits and strengths of the law.  The Cipher Brief

Biden’s Final Push on Ukraine, Russia and Eastern Europe.  President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for special envoy to Ukraine, former U.S. Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has suggested that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia can be reached 100 days from Trump’s inauguration on January 20. “Magical thinking,” says Ambassador Michael Carpenter, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Europe at the National Security Council. He explains why, in an exclusive interview with Cipher Brief senior international correspondent Ia Meurmishvili.  “I think the Ukrainians are ready to sit down and talk about a lasting peace that would protect their sovereignty, independence, and democratic character,” Carpenter says. “The question to me is, does Vladimir Putin have any interest in sitting down at that table and negotiating anything other than…the complete capitulation of Ukraine and essentially Russian dominance over the country and the government located in Kyiv?”  He doesn't think so, unless Trump comes up with something Putin wants more:  “It’s going to require leverage. The Cipher Brief

The New Administration Meets the Intelligence Community: What Should We Expect?  Former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin offers advice for intelligence analysts, as they wonder what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the intelligence community.  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Hamas expected to release 33 hostages if ceasefire deal’s first phase happens.  The emerging ceasefire deal now being finalized in Doha is expected to effect the release of 33 hostages or bodies of hostages during its first phase of 42 days, CNN reported. The 33 would include women, children, people with severe injuries and those above 50, according to the Wall Street Journal. Hamas and its allies are believed to hold 94 of the 251 hostages but at least 34 of them are dead, the Israeli government has said.  President Joe Biden said Monday that the U.S. was “pressing hard to close this.”  A final round of talks is scheduled for Tuesday in Doha.  Once the first phase is implemented, negotiations toward the second phase would begin on the 16th day.  The deal on the table would allow Israeli forces to stay in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border during the first phase and to maintain a buffer zone inside Gaza along the border with Israel. Residents of northern Gaza could return home, with conditions. Palestinian prisoners responsible for killing Israelis would be released to Gaza Strip or abroad but not to the West Bank.  The deal must first pass Israel’s security cabinet and full cabinet and possible litigation from Israel’s hard right. It could all fall apart.  The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said Monday it was hopeful but cautious.  CNN Wall Street Journal  Haaretz 

Why some Israeli soldiers are refusing to keep fighting in decimated Gaza. As international calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas surge, a growing number of Israeli soldiers are speaking out against their experiences during the 15-month conflict in Gaza, with some refusing to serve due to ethical concerns. 28-year-old Yotam Vilk, an armored corps officer, spoke to the Associated Press and described witnessing the shooting of an unarmed Palestinian teenager, which deeply affected him. He and others reported indiscriminate killings, unnecessary destruction of homes, and looting by soldiers. A group called "Soldiers for the Hostages" has gathered 200 signatures from soldiers refusing to fight unless a ceasefire is achieved, using their actions as a form of protest against the ongoing violence. This movement faces criticism from others who see it as undermining Israel's defense. The army denounces any refusal to serve and examines each case of a disobedience individually; troops can even be arrested for refusing to serve. The conflict continues to cause moral injury and trauma for many soldiers, prompting them to speak out and seek change. Meanwhile, international rights groups have accused Israel of war crimes, though the Jewish state staunchly denies these allegations, claiming efforts to minimize civilian harm. Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says he will meet 'very quickly' with Putin. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump told Newsmax on Monday that he plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin "very quickly" after taking office next week. While not providing an exact timeline, Trump emphasized the urgency of addressing Russia's war on Ukraine. Asked about his strategy to end the war, Trump remarked: "Well, there's only one strategy, and it's up to Putin, and I can't imagine he's too thrilled about the way it's gone because it hasn't gone exactly well for him either.” Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands of people dead, displaced millions, and triggered the biggest rupture in relations between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Reuters

NATO chief: Ukraine is not yet in a strong position for peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, addressing the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs in Brussels on Monday, said Ukraine is not currently strong enough to negotiate peace with Russia. “At this moment, clearly, Ukraine is not there,” Rutte said. “Because they cannot, at this moment, negotiate from a position of strength. And we have to do more to make sure, by changing the trajectory of the conflict, that they can get to the position of strength.” He also warned that “peace will not last if [Vladimir] Putin gets his way in Ukraine.” Urging increased European defense spending, Rutte stated, “2 percent of GDP is not nearly enough.” RFE/RL The Hill

Europe Grows More Optimistic Trump Won’t Abandon Ukraine. European leaders are cautiously optimistic that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won’t abruptly end support for Ukraine, following private talks where they argued for continued aid. Trump’s openness to diplomacy and deterrence surprised some, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasizing, “The only way to force Russia to sit down for talks is to build a difficult situation for them.” Trump’s team is considering steps to strengthen Ukraine’s position, including military support and stricter sanctions on Russia. Concerns persist about his commitment, with doubts over NATO membership for Ukraine and questions about long-term U.S. involvement. However, leaders in European capitals are increasingly convinced that a deal to end the war will emerge in the foreseeable future. Bloomberg

German defense minister arrives in Ukraine to discuss aid. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited Kyiv on Tuesday to discuss aid and assess the military situation with Ukrainian officials, affirming Germany’s continued support for Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Pistorius emphasized Germany’s solidarity with Ukraine, alongside allies in NATO and the Group of Five. The visit follows his meeting in Warsaw with counterparts from Poland, Britain, France, and Italy. Germany, a top military backer of Ukraine, faces domestic debate over its support ahead of the February 23 snap election, as Donald Trump’s impending return to the U.S. presidency pressures Europe to strengthen its defenses independently. Reuters

Macron, Zelensky discuss 'practical steps' for deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call on Monday to discuss deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, focusing on practical steps and potential international involvement. Zelensky highlighted Ukraine's defense priorities, including long-range weapons. Macron first proposed peacekeepers in February 2024 and raised the idea again during a Dec. 7 meeting with Zelensky and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Both leaders plan to meet soon to advance these discussions and ensure security guarantees. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine faces obstacles in drafting more soldiers. Over 6 million Ukrainian men of conscription age have not updated their military registration, highlighting challenges for Kyiv in replenishing troops amid the war with Russia. Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, told ABC News that Ukraine should lower its draft age from 25 to 18 to stabilize the frontline, stating, “If the Ukrainians have asked the entire world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy.” Ukrainian veteran Viktor Kovalenko called the noncompliance “shocking” and warned Kyiv lacks the mobilization potential it had hoped for, adding, “Ukraine needs soldiers on the ground who either defend positions or go forward, capture land, and raise the flag.” The Biden administration also urged Ukraine to amend its conscription laws. Zelensky, however, emphasized in December that acquiring Western weapons and training remains a greater priority than lowering the draft age. The issue could strain U.S.-Ukraine relations. Newsweek

Russia Targets Ukraine's Key Lithium Reserves. Russia has seized two of Ukraine’s four lithium deposits, including Shevchenko in Donetsk, since the 2022 invasion, threatening Ukraine’s economic resources and Europe’s green energy ambitions. Ukraine holds an estimated 500,000 tons of lithium, one of the largest reserves in Europe, crucial for batteries in electric vehicles and electronics. While Russia’s war likely isn’t driven by lithium, Ukraine’s mineral wealth highlights its strategic importance. Europe seeks to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like China, making Ukraine a potential key partner. Experts note that stabilizing Ukraine could position it as a cornerstone for Europe’s critical mineral supply chain. RFE/RL

Ukraine halts production at Pokrovsk coal mine as Russia closes in. Ukraine halted production at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine, its sole source for steelmaking coal, due to the proximity of advancing Russian forces. Russian troops are reportedly within 2 kilometers of one mine shaft, with nearby facilities also under threat. Pokrovsk is critical to Ukraine's steel industry, which has suffered declines since 2022. Steel output dropped from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to a projected 2-3 million in 2025. Producers may seek alternative domestic sources or imports, raising costs. Metal exports, vital to Ukraine’s economy, generated $4.4 billion in 2024. Evacuations are underway as operations halt. Reuters

Putin’s passport trap: The Cubans caught in Moscow’s endless war. Thousands of foreign recruits, including Cubans, are trapped in Russia's war on Ukraine after signing one-year military contracts in exchange for fast-tracked citizenship. Recruits, many deceived by promises of civilian jobs or financial stability, face indefinite deployment due to their new status as Russian citizens. Cuban soldiers report being used as cannon fodder, suffering injuries, and enduring dangerous frontline conditions. Some attempt to escape despite harsh punishments like imprisonment or forced returns to combat. Cuba’s complicity, including silence on casualties and participation in recruitment, underscores the recruits’ dire predicament, leaving families back home searching for answers and soldiers desperate for freedom. Politico EU

North Korea's suicide soldiers pose new challenge for Ukraine in war with Russia. North Korea’s troops in Ukraine are bound by a grim suicide policy, reportedly ordered to take their own lives rather than be captured, according to Ukrainian officials and South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS). Ukrainian forces have encountered multiple cases where soldiers detonated grenades as capture loomed, shouting allegiance to Kim Jong Un. Notes recovered from fallen soldiers affirm regime-issued directives emphasizing self-destruction to protect both the state and their families. The indoctrination fuels extreme loyalty, with defectors describing these soldiers as “ready to die” for their leader. Over 300 have been killed and 2,700 wounded among North Korean forces deployed to support Russia in Ukraine highlight their use as expendable assets in Russia’s war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently proposed exchanging captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia, but many in North Korea see capture as a fate worse than death, equating it with treason. Captured soldiers testified they received no salaries, only promises of hero status. Families of deployed troops, compensated with food and necessities, expressed fear and concern. The NIS also noted widespread domestic awareness of the deployment and citizens’ hopes for Russian aid to improve living conditions. Reuters Nikkei Asia

Ukraine Gaining 'Useful' Intelligence from Captured North Korean Soldiers, Kyiv Says. Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) is leveraging the capture of two North Korean soldiers for operational insights and diplomatic advantage. Interrogations revealed details about North Korea's role in Russia's war, including troop movements, training, and the strategic use of North Korean forces as expendable infantry. One soldier disclosed he was misled into believing he was sent for training, not combat, reflecting poor preparation and morale among North Korean units. Analysts note this intelligence highlights Kim Jong-un's covert support for Moscow, further straining Pyongyang's diplomatic credibility. Ukraine plans to use these findings to spotlight North Korea's involvement on the global stage. RFE/RL

Ukraine’s new Kursk push brings minor gains, raising concerns over limited resources. Ukraine’s recent operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has achieved minor tactical gains but raised concerns over resource allocation amid other critical battles. Starting in early January, Ukrainian forces advanced over two kilometers but struggled to retain captured villages, facing heavy Russian counterattacks and advanced weaponry. Experts suggest the operation, involving elite and less experienced units, is politically motivated, aiming to pressure Russia and bolster morale. Ukraine’s limited control over Kursk territory risks overstretching defenses. Meanwhile, Russia’s counteroffensive, supported by 12,000 North Korean troops, intensifies, jeopardizing Ukraine’s logistics and further complicating the operation’s sustainability. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it targeted Russia's Engels airbase infrastructure in 'multi-day, comprehensive operation.' Ukraine's 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment targeted Russia's Engels airbase in a multi-day operation, striking aviation fuel tanks and ammunition depots to weaken Russian strategic aviation. Part of a broader overnight campaign, attacks also hit industrial sites in Tula, Saratov, and Bryansk regions. Engels airbase, over 750 kilometers from Ukraine, houses Tu-95, Tu-22, and Tu-160 bombers regularly used against Ukrainian cities. The Tu-95 and Tu-160 can carry advanced cruise missiles, while the supersonic Tu-22 poses challenges for Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine's innovative drone warfare continues to counter Russia’s numerical edge, with aerial, naval, and ground drones achieving significant operational success. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine strikes Russia with massive drone and ATACMS attack. Ukraine launched a massive overnight drone and missile attack on Russian cities on Tuesday, damaging factories in Saratov, Engels, and Kazan, and prompting airport closures across southern Russia. Saratov’s governor reported industrial site damage, and schools shifted to remote learning. The attack follows a prior strike in the region targeting an oil depot linked to a nuclear bomber airbase. The independent Astra news outlet noted a fire in Kazan, where alarms sounded at the Taneco refinery. A chemical plant in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, critical to producing gunpowder and explosives for artillery and missiles, was reportedly damaged. Explosions were also reported at the "Kremniy El" microelectronics plant, which supplies components for Russian defense systems. Russia claims to have downed over 200 drones and five U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, though this is unverified. Moscow has pledged retaliation, escalating tensions further. Reuters Kyiv Independent CNN

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks. Russia has attributed a wave of arson attacks to Ukraine, framing it as a campaign of subversion and psychological warfare. The attacks, primarily targeting ATMs, police cars, and banks, often involve elderly perpetrators claiming coercion by phone scammers. These scammers, allegedly linked to Ukrainian call centers, exploit Russia’s vulnerability due to widespread corruption and data breaches. Ukrainian sources confirm such call centers might be involved, leveraging psychological tactics for financial gain or patriotic motives. Some Ukrainian intelligence officials claim direct involvement by Kyiv’s special services, citing these acts as strategic operations. Russia has responded by restricting internet access, banning YouTube and telephony services, to counter foreign influence. Meanwhile, accused arsonists, like pensioner Alexander Nikiforov, face severe legal consequences with minimal chances of acquittal. Ukraine has also accused Russia of similar methods, claiming Russian-backed arson against Ukrainian military vehicles. Both sides exploit vulnerable individuals, fueling tension and mutual accusations in the war. The Economist

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 19 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed two people and injured 19 in the past day, regional authorities said Tuesday. Ukraine’s Air Force reported shooting down 58 of 80 Shahed drones launched overnight. Donetsk Oblast recorded two fatalities and two injuries, while Kherson Oblast saw nine injured, including in Kherson city. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, three were injured, including a 14-year-old girl. Five were injured in Kharkiv Oblast, including two infants, highlighting civilian casualties amid Russia’s ongoing war. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine air defense downs 58 Russian drones over 11 regions, Kyiv says. Ukrainian air defense and mobile drone hunter groups shot down 58 out of 80 drones launched by Russia in overnight attacks on Tuesday, the air force said in a statement. It said 21 drones disappeared from radars in reference to Kyiv using electronic warfare to redirect them. The drones were downed over 11 regions across Ukraine. Reuters

Gazprom considers record job cuts as Ukraine war ravages finances. Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy giant, plans to cut 1,600 jobs at its St. Petersburg headquarters, reducing its workforce by 40%. This marks the largest layoff in its history as plummeting European gas sales and oil sanctions severely hurt finances following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, Gazprom reported a $6.9 billion loss, its worst in 25 years, with revenues dropping 30% due to Nord Stream pipeline damage and declining European Union market reliance. While financial performance improved in 2024, analysts doubt a full recovery. The leaked proposal highlights internal dissatisfaction and underscores the company's struggle to adapt to shifting energy markets. Financial Times

My place or yours? Zelensky and Fico can’t agree on a venue to settle their ugly gas feud. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico remain locked in a heated dispute over gas transit. Tensions escalated after Fico, who met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, criticized Kyiv’s decision to end the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to European Union nations, including Slovakia, after a five-year agreement expired on Jan. 1. Fico threatened to cut electricity exports to Ukraine in retaliation. Zelensky accused Fico of “arrogantly refusing” Ukraine’s assistance. Both leaders proposed conflicting venues for talks, with Fico suggesting Slovakia and Zelensky inviting him to Kyiv. Politico EU

Oligarch-linked telecoms group to float Ukraine’s Kyivstar on Nasdaq. Veon, linked to sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, plans to list Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest telecom operator, on Nasdaq through a merger with Cohen Circle. Though Fridman and Aven co-founded Veon’s largest shareholder, LetterOne, the company asserts they hold no shares in Kyivstar or Veon, with their assets effectively frozen. Kyivstar, which recently partnered with Elon Musk’s Starlink, reported $541 million EBITDA in 2023. Veon has committed $1 billion to rebuilding Ukraine’s digital infrastructure by 2027 and exited Russia in 2023. This listing highlights Veon’s strategy to attract international investors and distance itself from oligarch affiliations. Financial Times

Zelensky announces new sanctions on Russian financial sector. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new sanctions targeting 140 entities in Russia’s financial sector. He also signed a draft law introducing criminal penalties for evading sanctions, aligning with international enforcement standards. Zelensky emphasized that sanctions pressure the aggressor and bring peace closer. His announcement follows U.S. and U.K. sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels and associated officials. Zelensky called these measures a "significant blow" to Russia’s war funding. Kyiv Independent

Putin has failed to meet any of his strategic objectives in Ukraine, Biden says. In a closing foreign policy address at the White House on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve any strategic objectives in Ukraine. Reflecting on his administration’s record, Biden noted Putin’s failure to subjugate Ukraine, divide NATO, or make significant territorial gains. He highlighted U.S. support by citing coalition-building with 50 nations, extensive military aid, and sanctions that weakened Russia’s economy. Biden urged continued U.S. assistance for Ukraine and contrasted his visit to Kyiv in February 2023 with Putin’s inability to claim victory. His remarks precede President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine opens doors to foreign firms for military equipment modernization. Ukraine has approved foreign companies to assist in modernizing military equipment, focusing on aviation, ships, and components with advanced Western technologies, the Defense Ministry announced on Monday. The initiative aims to foster high-tech collaborations while ensuring transparency and adherence to global standards. Deputy Defense Minister Anatolii Klochko emphasized the efficiency gains from leveraging foreign expertise. Amid the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine prioritizes defense production, allocating $1.3 billion in its 2025 budget to enhance military capabilities. Kyiv Independent

Russia's federal budget won't fund anti-drone systems at civilian airports, media reports. Russia will not provide federal funding for anti-drone systems at civilian airports, leaving security responsibilities to airport management, according to a Jan. 12 report by Vedomosti. Initially, over $106 million was planned to equip 31 airports by 2028, including major hubs like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This decision raises concerns about vulnerabilities in civil aviation amid Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure, which have frequently disrupted airport operations during the war. Kyiv Independent

How Russia tries to turn desperate Ukrainians into traitors. Svitlana, a Ukrainian woman whose husband Dima was a Russian prisoner, resisted demands from a Russian agent to commit sabotage in exchange for improved conditions for Dima. Following guidance from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), she recorded the exchanges and refused to cooperate. Despite intense pressure, she remained steadfast. Dima was eventually released after over two years in captivity, unharmed. The SBU emphasizes that cooperating with agents worsens the situation for prisoners. Now reunited, Svitlana, Dima, and their son cherish their time together, celebrating her courage and determination that helped secure their family’s reunion. BBC

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Jan. 13. Russian forces cut key highways east and southwest of Pokrovsk, aiming to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. Russian forces are likely prioritizing advances near Pokrovsk to force Ukrainian withdrawals and avoid costly urban combat. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported approximately 3,000 North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast. Gazprom is considering a 40% reduction in its central office staff, reflecting concerns over the long-term effects of declining gas exports to Europe.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Putin’s Plan for Peace Is No Peace at All. Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken argue that Vladimir Putin’s "peace" plan would perpetuate aggression rather than resolve conflict. They emphasize Ukraine's resilience against Russia’s invasion and highlight the strategic success of U.S. and allied support, which has bolstered Ukraine's defense and NATO’s unity. Russia faces mounting losses—over 700,000 casualties and significant economic strain—while Ukraine endures profound challenges. The authors warn against cutting aid or pushing a premature cease-fire, as it would enable Russia to regroup and re attack. Instead, they advocate for continued U.S. leadership and "peace through strength" to secure Ukraine's sovereignty and global stability. New York Times

THE AMERICAS

US Justice Dept unveils report saying Trump would have been convicted in 2020 election case. U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith released a 137-page report on Tuesday detailing evidence of former President Donald Trump's alleged efforts to obstruct the 2020 election results. The investigation uncovered claims that Trump engaged in "unprecedented criminal effort” by pressuring state officials, promoting false fraud allegations, and seeking to overturn electoral votes in swing states he lost. Prosecutors charged Trump with four federal crimes, including conspiracy to defraud the U.S., but the case was dropped after Trump became president-elect in November, as Justice Department rules prohibit prosecuting a sitting president. The report highlights challenges in prosecuting Trump, including legal battles over presidential immunity and political sensitivities. Smith's team argued the evidence was sufficient to secure a conviction but refrained from insurrection charges due to a lack of modern precedent. Smith asserted that “the office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial.” Trump and his attorneys tried to block the report's release, claiming political bias, but Smith denied these allegations, asserting his investigation followed the law and facts impartially. A second volume of the report, concerning Trump's handling of classified documents, remains under litigation. The President-elect responded to the report on social media, referring to Smith as a "lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the election." Washington Post Reuters New York Times ABC 

How the U.S. got Putin to stop Russian plot to sabotage plane heading for North America. Last summer, several cargo shipments caught fire at airports and warehouses in Germany, Britain and Poland.  U.S. and European officials obtained intelligence, including intercepts, that officials of the G.R.U., Russia’s military intelligence arm, had booby-trapped some small packages and were contemplating going bigger, by sending explosive packages on planes bound for the U.S. and Canada. U.S. officials feared a Russian package would wind up bursting into flames and taking down a passenger airliner, killing hundreds of passengers and crew.  President Joe Biden told national security adviser Jake Sullivan and C.I.A. director Bill Burns, to send a series of warnings to Putin’s top aides that a mass casualty event occurred, the U.S. would hold Russia responsible for “enabling terrorism.”  The warning got through to Putin and the fires stopped.  The New York Times has put together the inside story, from the U.S. side. But one thing they don’t know:  did Putin order the GRU operation, did he know about it or did he find out only when the U.S. told him. New York Times

Russian oil tankers dead in the water after U.S. sanctions.  At least 65 oil tankers dropped anchor after the U.S. levied new sanctions on the Russian oil industry, Reuters reported, analyzing marine traffic and LSEG ship tracking data available Monday.  Five tankers were stopped off China, seven others were stationary off Singapore, and yet others were anchored in the Baltic Sea and the Far East, according to Reuters' analysis. Some 25 oil tankers were stationary off Iranian ports, near the Suez Canal, or other locations. The sanctions led  Shandong Port Group to  ban tankers under U.S. sanctions from its ports, traders said last week. Reuters reported that according to analysts, around 10% of the global oil tanker fleet was subject to US sanctions. Some analysts predicted that Russia would eventually figure out a way around the sanctions, but in the short-term Russia’s costs to export oil would rise. Reuters  Reuters

Biden stands behind his foreign policy record in farewell speech, in spite of unresolved global crises. In his final address at the U.S. State Department, outgoing President Joe Biden underscored his foreign policy achievements, asserting that Washington is "winning the worldwide competition," and that U.S. adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China are weaker than when he took office. He emphasized U.S. support for Ukraine against Russia's invasion, efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and economic competition with China. Biden defended his administration's role in aiding Israel and Ukraine while avoiding direct U.S. military involvement. He also addressed criticism of Washington’s unyielding support for Israel during its controversial military actions in Gaza, which have drawn accusations of war crimes. Despite acknowledging closer ties between authoritarian states like Russia, China, and Iran, Biden framed these alliances as rooted in weakness rather than strength. He highlighted key moments, such as his historic visit to Kyiv during the Ukraine war and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, presenting these as strategic moves that strengthened U.S. global standing. The president concluded by stating that his administration is leaving the next government with a strong position to address ongoing global challenges. Reuters CNN France 24 Al Jazeera PBS 

House Republicans on the lookout for support for bill on possible Greenland purchase. President-elect Donald Trump's GOP allies in the U.S. House of Representatives are seeking support for the "Make Greenland Great Again Act," which would authorize Trump to negotiate with Denmark to purchase the territory when he takes office on January 20th. Led by Representative Andy Ogles, the bill has 10 co-sponsors and would allow Trump to initiate talks to persuade Denmark to sell the island. Greenland, a semi-sovereign territory under Danish control, is not for sale, according to Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede, who emphasizes that any decision about the island’s future rests with its people. Any change to Greenland’s status would require a constitutional amendment in Denmark, given its legal ties to the Danish realm. Axios Reuters Fox News 

American lawmakers call on Biden to extend TikTok’s January 19th ban deadline. Two Democratic lawmakers, Senator Edward Markey and Representative Ro Khanna, on Monday urged Congress and President Joe Biden to delay the January 19 deadline for ByteDance, TikTok's China-based parent company, to sell its U.S. assets or face a ban. The lawmakers stressed the severe consequences of a ban, which could disrupt the platform used by 170 million Americans. Senator Markey said he would propose legislation to extend the deadline by 270 days, while Khanna called on Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to pause the ban to protect free speech and livelihoods. A lawyer for TikTok argued that a ban would essentially shut down the platform, as it would quickly go dark without support. If the Supreme Court does not block the law by Sunday, new downloads of TikTok would be banned, and existing services would gradually degrade. The White House has not commented on the issue, and Biden could extend the deadline by 90 days if ByteDance shows substantial progress toward divestiture, though meeting this standard seems unlikely. Reuters 

Canada prepared to purchase more American products to placate Trump. Canadian ambassador to Washington, Kirsten Hillman, has stressed her country’s willingness to strengthen trade ties with the U.S., including purchasing more American products, such as its next fleet of submarines, to address President-elect Donald Trump’s concerns about the U.S.-Canada trade deficit. She noted that Ottawa already sources 70% of its military procurements, including F-35 fighter jets, from the U.S. Hillman warned that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods would immediately increase prices for American consumers and strain Washington-Ottawa trade relations. Canada currently supports more than 8 million U.S. jobs and provides vital materials for American manufacturing. She reiterated Canada’s readiness to retaliate if tariffs are imposed and brushed off Trump’s talk of Canada becoming the 51st state as a negotiation tactic. Hillman stressed that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) already ensures a 99% tariff-free trade relationship, making new tariffs unnecessary, and highlighted Ottawa’s billion-dollar border security plan. She argued that collaboration in oil, gas, nuclear energy, and hydroelectricity is essential for mutual economic and security interests. Associated Press 

Mexico's president outlines plan to curb Chinese imports in nod to Trump. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday unveiled an economic plan focused on reducing reliance on Chinese imports and bolstering domestic production, aligning with incoming U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's trade concerns about Chinese goods entering the U.S. through Mexico. Sheinbaum defended the USMCA trade pact as vital for competing with Beijing and emphasized its importance ahead of its 2026 review. Key elements of the plan include increasing local sourcing in industries like textiles and autos, supporting Mexican steel producers, boosting investment to 28% of GDP, and creating 1.5 million manufacturing jobs by severing red tape and encouraging domestic production. The agenda signals a pro-business shift from the policies of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The plan also aims to strengthen customs enforcement, implement tariff policies, and expand trade agreements to position Mexico among the world's top 10 economies by 2030. Reuters Financial Times Bloomberg   

Haiti’s police detain former legislator accused of giving weapons to gangs. Haitian police have arrested Prophane Victor, an ex-lawmaker accused of arming gangs and sanctioned by the U.S. and Canada for supporting gang violence. Victor, who represented the Petite Riviere community in the Artibonite region, was detained in Port-au-Prince on Sunday. This arrest is notable in a country where high-ranking politicians often evade accountability. Victor allegedly armed young men to obtain his 2016 election win, leading to the formation of Gran Grif, the largest gang in Artibonite. After a fallout with the gang in 2020, Victor reportedly began supporting rival gangs. Gran Grif has since been linked to major incidents of violence, including a massacre in Pont-Sonde in October, in which dozens were killed. Victor's arrest is considered a rare success for Haitian authorities amid widespread gang violence and political impunity. Associated Press 

Venezuela AG asks Interpol for arrest warrant, red notice for opposition's Leopoldo Lopez. Venezuela attorney general Tarek Saab said Monday he has asked Interpol to issue an international arrest warrant and red notice against Leopoldo Lopez, an opposition figure who was once jailed and has lived in Spain since 2020. On Saturday, Lopez wrote on X that a proposal from former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe that military intervention in Venezuela to depose Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro should be "seriously considered.” Interpol has not replied. Reuters  

Venezuela claims opposition directed attacks on diplomatic facilities in 5 nations. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil has accused critics of President Nicolás Maduro of orchestrating vandalism at Venezuelan diplomatic facilities in five countries—Portugal, Germany, Spain, Colombia, and Costa Rica—though he provided no evidence to support the claim. The incidents occurred shortly after Maduro was sworn in for a controversial third term, despite credible and abundant evidence of his election defeat last year. In Portugal, authorities are investigating an attack on Venezuela's consulate involving an incendiary device. Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry shared images of the alleged vandalism, including a flag with the name “Edmundo,” referencing opposition candidate Edmundo González. Many governments, including the U.S., recognize González as the rightful election winner. The vandalism is possibly linked to grassroots opposition groups called "comanditos," though their role remains unconfirmed. Associated Press 

China seeks to strengthen ties with Caribbean nations, as Grenada affirms one-China principle. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell in Beijing on Monday, expressing his country’s commitment to deepen its comprehensive partnership with Caribbean nations. Xi emphasized China's readiness to support the economic and social development of the region, highlighting two decades of successful ties with Grenada since it switched diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing. Mitchell reaffirmed Grenada's adherence to the one-China principle and called for respect for China's sovereignty. The meeting reflects the Asian superpower’s broader diplomatic efforts in the Caribbean and Latin America, a region that holds the largest concentration of Taiwan's remaining allies. Taipei and Beijing have long competed for diplomatic recognition, often engaging in "dollar diplomacy." Taiwan still maintains ties with four Caribbean nations, but concerns persist about China's efforts to further reduce the self-governing island’s diplomatic allies. Reuters 

EUROPE

Rethink welfare to finance military spending increases, NATO boss tells European Parliament. Addressing the European Parliament on Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called for rethinking European spending priorities to bolster defense, emphasizing the need to shift resources from welfare to military budgets. "On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on pensions, health, and social security systems, and we need only a small fraction of that money to make defense much stronger," Rutte told MEPs. He urged greater investment to counter threats from Russia, Iran, and China. He supported the European Union’s €1.5 billion European Defense Industry Programme, calling Europe’s defense sector “too small, too fragmented, and too slow.” Rutte stressed transatlantic defense cooperation and rapid arms production. Rutte also said it was an "illusion" to think Europe can go it alone on defense without the United States. "We are safe now, but not in four or five years," he said, adding later that if spending doesn't go up, Europeans should "get out your Russian language courses or go to New Zealand." Politico EU

Biggest NATO allies in Europe will swiftly implement new targets, Berlin says. At a Monday meeting in Poland, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius committed Germany, Poland, Britain, France, and Italy to swiftly implementing NATO’s new targets for weapons and troop numbers, which the alliance is set to finalize in June. Pistorius noted that accelerating the timeline from October to June, a decision influenced by Germany’s request, provides critical time for implementation. “The crucial question for me is: How fast do we, does every single ally, manage to meet NATO's new capability targets?” he asked. However, he dismissed U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s call for defense spending to reach 5% of GDP, labeling it unrealistic for Germany. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu highlighted growing security threats, stating, “The situation is worse than it was during the Cold War... We can be defeated without being invaded,” referencing cyberattacks. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized coordinated defense efforts, adding, “Security is number one.” Reuters Associated Press 

A Wider War Has Already Started in Europe. Russia has escalated its sabotage efforts across Europe, targeting critical infrastructure, while European leaders hesitate to label these actions as acts of war. Last month, the Estlink 2 power cable linking Estonia and Finland was severed, likely by the Russian shadow fleet’s tanker, Eagle S, equipped with surveillance gear. Meanwhile, Europe faces unexplained fires in cargo airlines attacks on rail lines, and munitions factories, all believed to be Russian operations. Despite sanctions, European Union officials avoid framing these as acts of war. The Atlantic

EU shipyards are fixing Russia’s Arctic LNG tankers. European Union shipyards in France and Denmark are maintaining Russia’s Arctic liquified natural gas (LNG) tankers, enabling Moscow to continue gas exports from the Yamal LNG plant despite Western sanctions. Fourteen of the 15 Arc7 vessels, essential for navigating Arctic ice, have been serviced in these European yards. While the work adheres to EU sanctions exemptions for energy transport, critics highlight the reliance on European expertise and facilities. In 2023, Yamal exported nearly 21 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe, with a quarter trans-shipped elsewhere. EU countries plan to ban trans-shipment of Russian LNG from March 2025, marking a step toward phasing out imports. Financial Times

German police investigate suspected Russian espionage at military bases. German police are investigating suspected Russian espionage following multiple drone sightings over military bases in Bavaria, including a facility in Manching used for testing aircraft. Drones were reported over Manching on three occasions in December and over another base in Neuburg an der Donau the same month. Investigators suspect Russian state actors of sabotage, citing unauthorized drone overflights at military sites, LNG terminals, and logistics hubs. In December, Germany's federal police warned companies of potential Russian saboteurs. Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence, suggested Russia's actions might eventually lead NATO to consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause. Reuters

Finland asserts oil tanker sabotage crew was prepared to sever more cables when caught. Finnish authorities revealed that crew members aboard the oil tanker Eagle S were preparing to damage additional undersea power cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea when the vessel was seized on December 26. The tanker, which was transporting Russian oil, is accused of dragging its anchor for over 100 kilometers, damaging the Finnish Estonian Estlink 2 power line and four telecom cables, and threatening the Estlink 1 power cable and BalticConnector gas pipeline. Nine crew members, including the captain, are under investigation and barred from travel. The crew consists of Georgian and Indian citizens. This incident is part of broader concerns about the security of critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea following multiple outages since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, a Chinese bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, is suspected of damaging two undersea fiber-optic cables in November and threatening a power cable between Sweden and Lithuania. NATO Baltic Sea nations are on high alert and are convening in Helsinki on Tuesday to address these growing threats to regional infrastructure. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Drone drops into UK prisons a national security threat, says inspector.  The UK's Chief Inspector of Prisons has raised concerns about the increasing use of drones by criminal gangs to smuggle contraband into prisons, labeling it a national security threat. These drones deliver items such as drugs and mobile phones, undermining prison security and rehabilitation efforts. The inspector emphasizes the need for enhanced measures to detect and counteract these drone incursions to maintain order and safety within correctional facilities.  Reuters

EU's Virkkunen says risky ships must be identified to protect undersea cables. European Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen emphasized the need to identify and limit the activities of "risky ships" to protect critical undersea infrastructure amid heightened concerns in the Baltic Sea region. On Monday, she called for proactive measures, including using new technologies and improving information sharing to address threats. Baltic nations have experienced recent damage to power cables, telecom links, and pipelines, with the Finnish Estonian Estlink 2 power line likely damaged by the Eagle S tanker. Finland suspects the vessel, part of Russia’s "shadow fleet," of sabotage. NATO has pledged to bolster its presence in the Baltic Sea. Reuters

Greenland to Trump: We’re Not for Sale but Let’s Talk Business. On Monday, Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede firmly rejected President-elect Donald Trump’s notion of U.S. ownership, stating, “We don’t want to be American,” but expressed openness to closer cooperation with the U.S. on defense and development of natural resources. “The reality is we are going to work with the U.S. — yesterday, today, and tomorrow,” Egede acknowledged while emphasizing aspirations in Greenland for independence from Denmark. Trump’s comments, including threats of tariffs and military action, shocked Greenland while intensifying its strategic importance in the Arctic amid climate change. Egede urged his nation to be smart in managing growing international interest, calling for unity and pragmatic diplomacy. New York Times Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

The Kremlin earned €3 billion in tax from EU companies. A report by B4Ukraine and Squeezing Putin, two nongovernmental organizations, and the Kyiv School of Economics revealed that European Union companies paid the Kremlin €3 billion in taxes in 2023, contributing to its war chest. Including firms from pro-Ukraine and neutral countries, the total rises to €21.2 billion. Tobacco giant Philip Morris was the largest foreign contributor, generating $7 billion in revenue and paying €208 million in taxes, up from €144 million in 2022. While some firms, like Lufthansa Technik and Carlsberg, exited Russia, over 900 G7 and EU companies remained active, collectively generating €79 billion in revenues. Russia’s corporate tax rate will rise to 25% in 2024. Politico EU

Ten EU countries call for sanctions on Russian gas, LNG, document shows. Ten European Union countries, including Finland, Poland, and the Czech Republic, have called for a ban on Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to reduce revenue flowing to Moscow, according to a joint document. The proposal urges an accelerated phase-out of Russian energy, aligning with the EU’s goal to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 under the RePowerEU roadmap. The group also advocates barring Russian LNG tankers from EU ports. While Europe has significantly reduced Russian gas imports since 2022, countries like Hungary and Slovakia oppose such sanctions, complicating the unanimous approval required for enforcement. Reuters

Keep calm, Austria’s acting leader tells EU as far right looms. Austrian interim Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg sought to reassure European Union leaders amid concerns over the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) potentially leading Austria. During meetings with European Council President Antonio Costa and others in Brussels, Schallenberg pledged to uphold European values, including support for Ukraine and promised Austria would remain a “reliable partner” within the EU. Pro-Russia FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl is attempting to form a government following the collapse of coalition talks among mainstream parties. Schallenberg emphasized that democratic institutions and the rule of law are “non-negotiable” in coalition talks, urging trust in Austria’s commitment to EU principles during “trying times.” Politico EU

‘We are going to hell’: Slovak PM Fico warns of snap elections. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned of potential snap elections by March if his coalition partners, the Slovak National Party (SNS) and Hlas, fail to resolve a parliamentary impasse. Speaking on TA3, Fico stated, “Deal with it, or we are going to hell.” The crisis stems from three SNS MPs quitting their caucus in October, leaving the government with a slim majority of 76 out of 150 seats. Fico criticized coalition instability and tensions with President Peter Pellegrini. Fico’s surprise visit to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin drew criticism, with opposition leader Michal Šimečka accusing him of deflecting domestic issues. Politico EU

Secret UK files detailing confessions of Cambridge Five spies released. Newly declassified MI5 files released by the UK’s National Archives reveal details about the Cambridge Five spy ring, including confessions from Kim Philby and Anthony Blunt, who passed British secrets to the Soviet Union from the 1930s to the 1950s. Blunt, an art adviser to Queen Elizabeth II, confessed in 1964 but retained his role until his exposure in 1979. The files reveal the queen was formally informed in 1973, reacting "calmly and without surprise." Philby admitted his loyalty to the Soviets despite a successful career in MI6. These files, part of an upcoming “MI5: Official Secrets” exhibition, include additional revelations about MI5’s surveillance methods and other espionage cases. Current MI5 Director-General Ken McCallum highlighted the agency’s efforts toward openness while balancing secrecy. The release underscores the enduring fascination with Cold War-era espionage and the shadowy world of intelligence operations. Reuters Washington Post BBC The Guardian Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault. Iran faces mounting pressure from U.S. sanctions as oil prices reach a five-month high. Recent American actions, including blacklisting tankers linked to Iran, have reduced Iranian crude exports to China by a quarter since October 2024. With Donald Trump poised to intensify economic measures, potential strategies include adding tankers to sanctions lists or targeting Chinese ports importing Iranian oil. These efforts could cut Iranian exports by 1 million barrels daily by summer. However, risks include potential Iranian retaliation, such as disrupting Gulf oil traffic. The economic assault could deeply destabilize Iran but poses global risks. The Economist 

Iran in secret talks with Russia around its defense posture.   Iran has been engaged in a secret diplomatic initiative to gain Russian assistance on its nuclear program and air defense capabilities.  Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has made several trips to meet Russian officials. Russian president Vladimir Putin will host Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, in Moscow on Friday, to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership.”  The Times Politico EU 

Iran, Europe to continue talks over Tehran's nuclear program, Iran says.   Iranian officials are meeting in Geneva with representatives of Britain, France and Germany about Tehran’s disputed nuclear program, Iran's official news agency reported Tuesday. Iran hopes to convince the West to lift sanctions. In 2018, the administration of then-President Donald Trump ended Iran's 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions.  Tehran then broke the pact's nuclear limits and rebuilt stockpiles of enriched uranium. Reuters France 24 Deutsche Welle RFI 

Iran releases Iranian German national from prison.   German Iranian woman Nahid Taghavi was released from prison in Iran. "It's over. Nahid is free! After more than four years as a political prisoner in the Islamic Republic of Iran my mother... was freed and is back in Germany," her daughter Mariam Claren wrote on X. Taghavi, 70, was arrested in October 2020 and sentenced to 10 years in prison for organizing a group "with the purpose of disrupting national security" and "spreading propaganda against the system. "Amnesty International said the charges appeared to refer to a social media account about women's rights.  BBC Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera 

Nawaf Salam to be designated Lebanon's PM, over Hezbollah objections. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will designate Nawaf Salam, head of the International Court of Justice, to be Lebanon’s prime minister.  The appointment is opposed by Hezbollah. Salam, currently outside the country and due to return on Tuesday, had the backing of 84 out of parliament's 128 lawmakers.   He has support from Christian and Druze factions, and prominent Sunni Muslim MPs, including some Hezbollah allies.  Reuters Associated Press CNN Bloomberg   

EU nations want to drop some sanctions on Syria.  Six European Union members – Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Finland and Denmark – have proposed suspending transport, energy and banking sanctions on Syria, Reuters reported.  EU foreign ministers are scheduled to discuss the Syria sanctions situation at a meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27.  The six have said that if Syrian officials fail to respect human rights and minorities, the sanctions can be restored, and further sanctions may not be lifted.  The U.S. last week issued a six-month sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for .  in an effort to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance.  Reuters  

Hostage NGO believes US journalist Tice still in Syria.   Nizar Zakka, president of Hostage Aid Worldwide, said Monday he believes U.S. journalist Austin Tice is still being held in Syria by people loyal to former leader Bashar al-Assad.  Speaking to Reuters in Damascus, Zakka said he believed Tice’s captors want to use him “to do an exchange or a deal."  Reuters   

ASIA & OCEANIA

ANALYSIS–America’s China Strategy Is Incomplete. The U.S. strategy toward China must expand beyond tariffs to effectively address economic challenges and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. Recent efforts, such as the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, have incentivized critical industries and reshored production, but progress remains slow and costly. Expanding trade agreements, like rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or establishing sector-specific agreements, is essential to strengthen alliances and diversify supply chains. A comprehensive policy integrating trade, public-private partnerships, and international collaboration is vital to counter China’s economic influence and ensure long-term resilience and security for the U.S. and its partners. Foreign Affairs

Philippines on edge after China deploys 'monster ship' to fiercely contested shoal. The Philippines on Tuesday accused China of escalating aggression in the South China Sea by deploying its largest coast guard vessel, the "monster ship," into Manila's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), specifically near the Scarborough Shoal. The Philippines considers the ship's presence to be illegal, provocative, and an attempt to intimidate its fishermen and normalize Beijing's unauthorized presence in the area. China, which claims Scarborough Shoal as its territory, justifies its actions as lawful, and has maintained a constant patrol in the waterway since seizing the shoal in 2012. However, the Philippine government has protested the increasing proximity of Chinese vessels to its coast, calling for their withdrawal. The Philippine coast guard responded by deploying its two largest ships to push back against China's increasingly aggressive actions. Reuters The Independent Al Jazeera 

China’s new amphibious assault ship to be a drone carrier. China's newly launched Type 076 amphibious assault ship, speculated to be a drone carrier, marks a significant advancement in the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) uncrewed combat capabilities. According to PLA naval commander Chi Jianjun, the integration of drones and robotic systems is a growing trend in modern warfare, with the Type 076 and other advanced warships playing a critical role in enhancing automation and uncrewed military operations. The Type 076, larger and more versatile than its predecessor, the Type 075, can deploy both crewed and uncrewed systems, including stealth drones like the GJ-11 and robotic attack systems such as combat "robot dogs." These assets aim to reduce human risk in combat and increase strike efficiency, particularly in amphibious missions. Equipped with an electromagnetic catapult, the Type 076 can launch heavier aircraft and features capabilities rivaling larger aircraft carriers globally. This new warship is expected to play a pivotal role in a potential Taiwan conflict, enhancing PLA strike groups' intensity, speed, and operational reach across the Taiwan Strait. The ship's capabilities reflect China's broader military modernization amid heightened geopolitical tensions, especially with the U.S., which opposes any forceful attempt by Beijing to reunite Taipei with mainland China. South China Morning Post 

China weighing sale of TikTok US to Musk.   Chinese officials are considering selling the US operations of TikTok to Elon Musk if the U.S. bans the video app, Bloomberg News reported.  The parent company parent ByteDance Ltd. is fighting the impending ban and taking its case to the U.S. Supreme Court, but during arguments on Jan. 10 the justices indicated the court is  likely to sustain the ban. As a contingency, company officials are considering selling to Musk, an idea that appeals to Beijing.  Bloomberg  

North Korea test fires multiple short-range ballistic missiles. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea on Jan. 14th, just days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office. The missiles, which were fired from the Ganggye area in Jagang Province, traveled about 250 kilometers and are believed to target South Korea. This marks Pyongang’s second missile test of the year, following the launch of a hypersonic missile on January 6. Seoul condemned the launch as a blatant provocation threatening peace on the Korean Peninsula and emphasized its strengthened monitoring and vigilance while coordinating closely with the U.S. and Japan. Acting President Choi Sang-mok also condemned the act as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and promised a firm response in coordination with the U.S. alliance. The launch follows the North’s declaration of a "toughest" counteraction strategy against Washington and allied military cooperation. Yonhap News Agency The Independent Nikkei Asia Reuters Associated Press 

First hearing of South Korean leader Yoon’s impeachment trial ends after he does not attend. The first official hearing of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial ended on Tuesday after just four minutes due to his refusal to attend. The Constitutional Court dismissed Yoon's request to exclude Justice Chung Kye-sun from the trial, citing concerns about fairness, and confirmed that the trial will proceed regardless of Yoon's attendance. The next hearing is set for Thursday. Yoon was impeached by the National Assembly last month for trying to impose martial law on December 3. He remains suspended from office while facing charges of insurrection and abuse of power, and is holed up in his residence, which has been fortified with barbed wire and a vehicle blockade. The Constitutional Court has 180 days from December 14 to decide whether to uphold or reject the impeachment. The National Assembly, acting as the prosecutor, has requested five high-ranking officials as witnesses for the trial, including military commanders and police officials involved in Yoon's martial law decree. Yonhap News Agency Reuters CNN

Mayor of Busan receives invite to Trump's inauguration ceremony. Busan Mayor Park Heong-joon has received an official invitation to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, becoming the first Busan mayor to be invited to such an event. Park is carefully considering the trip, as he recently returned from the U.S. after attending CES 2025 in Nevada and visiting IT companies. Former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort also personally encouraged Park to attend, though a planned meeting between them did not occur due to scheduling conflicts. Park is inclined to attend if it offers opportunities to meet Trump administration officials who could support Busan's shipbuilding and other industries. Yonhap News Agency 

India cuts ties with US-blacklisted Russian companies and tankers.  Indian refiners have stopped dealing with oil tankers and entities sanctioned by the U.S. in an effort to cut Russia’s oil revenues that finance its war on Ukraine. Reuters reported that an Indian official told reporters that his government doesn’t expect its supply of Russian crude oil to be disrupted, because India will allow Russian oil cargoes booked before Jan. 10 to be offloaded at ports. After that, he said, "We are the third-largest consumer. Russia will find ways to reach us," the official added. He indicated that Russian oil would be channeled through non-sanctioned entities.  The Kremlin said Monday that the new U.S. sanctions on Russia's energy sector could destabilize global markets, and Moscow would minimize their impact. Reuters

27 insurgents killed by Pakistani security forces in Balochistan raid. 27 insurgents were killed after Pakistani security forces conducted a raid on a hideout in the Kachhi district of Balochistan province on Monday, according to a military statement. The operation was based on intelligence and targeted “terrorist” militants involved in numerous attacks against security forces and civilians. The military did not provide specific details about the insurgents, but Balochistan is known for a long-running insurgency involving separatist groups and Pakistani Taliban factions. These groups primarily target security forces and are demanding independence from the central government. Associated Press VOA Reuters  

AFRICA

Militants kill at least 40 farmers in Nigeria's Borno state. Suspected Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) militants killed at least 40 farmers on Sunday in Dumba, Borno State, Nigeria. The farmers reportedly ventured beyond a military-designated security corridor into an insurgent-dominated area strewn with landmines. Borno Governor Babagana Zulum condemned the attack, urging the military to investigate and act decisively. The assault comes amid a severe food crisis in Borno, worsened by flooding and prolonged insecurity. Boko Haram and ISWAP, active in northeast Nigeria since 2009, have intensified attacks in 2025, including a recent ambush attempt on a military patrol, which killed six soldiers and left 34 militants dead. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle   

Somalia and Ethiopia agree to restore diplomatic ties after a year-long rift. Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to restore diplomatic ties after a year-long rift over Ethiopia’s sea access deal with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region unrecognized by Somalia or the international community. The agreement followed Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa, where both nations pledged to enhance relations and adhere to a “one-door policy,” preventing Ethiopia from engaging Somaliland without Somalia’s approval. The breakthrough follows Turkish mediation and the Ankara Declaration, emphasizing dialogue. Security cooperation against the terrorist organization al-Shabaab remains crucial, with Egypt supporting Somalia’s fight through arms supplies and planned peacekeeping troop discussions. The Guardian VOA Deutsche Welle  

Canada’s Barrick to suspend operations in Mali after junta seized at least three metric tons of gold. Barrick Gold, a Canadian mining company, announced on Monday that it will temporarily suspend operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex in Mali after the government seized three metric tons of gold, valued at $245 million, and transported it to a state-owned bank in Bamako. The seizure, carried out by helicopter, stems from a court order claiming Barrick owes $5.5 billion in unpaid taxes, a figure much higher than previously estimated. Barrick has been in a prolonged dispute with Mali’s military government since 2023 over new mining regulations. The conflict has escalated, with Mali detaining executives, issuing an arrest warrant for Barrick’s CEO, and blocking gold shipments. Barrick denies wrongdoing, stating it has paid taxes, including $85 million in October The miner has also initiated arbitration proceedings against Mali. The company warned that the seizure invalidates its insurance coverage for the gold and could lead to long-term operational suspensions, potentially reducing its earnings by 11% this year. The situation highlights Mali’s push, along with other West African nations, to renegotiate mining contracts for greater revenue as gold prices hit record highs. Barrick owns 80% of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, and the Malian government holds the remaining 20%. Reuters Mining.com Bloomberg Associated Press 

Congo’s army claims several towns recaptured from insurgents as clashes surge in the east. The Congolese army has recaptured several towns in eastern Congo's North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, including key areas like Ngungu in Masisi territory, even as fighting continued against armed groups in other places. Despite these victories, some areas, such as Masisi Center, remain under rebel control. The region has been plagued by decades of conflict involving over 100 armed groups, and is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 7 million displaced, including 100,000 this year alone. Residents returning to recaptured areas, such as Ngungu, expressed mixed feelings, celebrating their return but fearing ongoing insecurity as violence persists. Clashes have left many villages inaccessible to aid, with facilities and camps for displaced people strained and ill-equipped. The dominant rebel group, M23, is accused of receiving support from Rwanda, though Rwanda adamantly denies the claims. Aid organizations, including Doctors Without Borders, warn of a critical lack of humanitarian resources in the region. Associated Press 

US State Department approves $100 million military helicopter sale to Zambia. According to the Pentagon, the U.S. State Department has authorized a $100 million foreign military sale to Zambia for Bell 412 helicopters and related logistics support. The principal contractor for the deal is Bell Textron, based in Fort Worth, Texas. The sale includes enhanced medium-lift transport helicopters and associated program support. Reuters FlightGlobal 

Sierra Leone declares state of emergency after identifying 2nd mpox case in 4 days. Sierra Leone declared a state of emergency on Jan. 14th after reporting two mpox cases within four days, with no known recent contact with infected animals or individuals. One patient had limited travel within the country. Both are being treated in Freetown. Mpox, historically found in central and West Africa, spread globally in 2022, with the Congo bearing most cases and deaths. Sierra Leone, previously the epicenter of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, is responding cautiously due to its history with severe health crises. Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

New Biden administration rule on AI technology ‘diffusion’ draws opposing viewpoints – A new set of guidelines and restrictions on the “diffusion” of AI and related technologies has been issued by the Biden administration.  The rules are broken into three groups, with the first section exempting U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea from restrictions on AI chip imports.  The second group covers countries like China and Russian, which in addition to existing AI chip restrictions are subject to even greater limits on “closed” AI models.  The third group encompasses the rest of the world and sets caps on the number of AI chips they can acquire.  The third group includes countries like Mexico, Portugal, and Israel and aims at preventing adversaries from buying advanced chips through third parties.  A 120-day comment period has been established for guidelines and restrictions, although the rules will take effect before that period is over.  Speaking in favor of the new policy, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said, “the U.S. leads the world in AI now, both AI development and AI chip design, and it's critical that we keep it that way.”  According to Ned Finkle, Nvidia vice president of government affairs, the new regulation "threatens to derail innovation and economic growth worldwide" and would "undermine America's leadership.”  Finkle added that the U.S. lead in global AI development would suffer because the rule "would impose bureaucratic control over how America's leading semiconductors, computers, systems, and even software are designed and marketed globally."  RAND Corporation analyst Jimmy Goodrich supported the new restrictions, noting that “it comes down to whether you think supercomputers capable of training the most advanced AI systems or modeling nuclear weapons should be in the U.S. and close allied nations or not.”  TechCrunch   Reuters   Wall Street Journal   New York Times   Wired   CNN   Bloomberg   Washington Post   South China Morning Post

OpenAI vision document advocates foreign investment, competitiveness strategy – OpenAI issued on Monday its vision for AI development in a 15-page document that advocates foreign investment as well as a regulatory framework that promotes U.S. competitiveness against China.  The company’s “Economic Blueprint” says it is urgent for the U.S. to draft national rules to solidify its lead and to tap into available funding.  The document points to an estimated $175 billion in global investment funds available for AI projects, adding that "if the U.S. doesn't attract those funds, they will flow to China-backed projects —strengthening the Chinese Communist Party's global influence."  OpenAI outlined its ideas for export controls on AI models to keep advanced systems away from adversaries and potential misuse.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman plans to host a Washington, D.C. event for policymakers later in January to discuss the startup’s proposals.  Chris Lehane, OpenAI vice president of global affairs, said the company also will hold events to showcase new AI projects in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Alabama.  Lehane told Bloomberg, “We’ve been talking about the importance of democratic AI prevailing over PRC autocratic AI. Maybe sometimes people thought that was an abstract conversation. I think it's a very real conversation.”  Reuters   Bloomberg   Washington Post   OpenAI

Britain unveils public-private AI investment plan to propel growth zones, infrastructure – Britain on Monday announced a broad plan for investments in AI development that will usher in a “decade of national renewal.”  The U.K.’s “Plan for Change” will commit to government investments in AI for public sector services alongside what it describes as private sector pledges to invest $17 billion in nationwide AI infrastructure, including data centers and R&D facilities.  Among the initiatives announced is the establishment of Culham, Oxfordshire, the home of Britain’s Atomic Energy Authority, as the first “AI Growth Zone.”  The plan also envisions a twentyfold increase in public compute capacity, a National Data Library for the storage and use of AI development data, and an Energy Council to examine solutions to AI power demands.  Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement, “artificial Intelligence will drive incredible change in our country.  But the AI industry needs a government that is on their side, one that won’t sit back and let opportunities slip through its fingers.”  Starmer added, “we must move fast and take action to win the global race. Our plan will make Britain the world leader.”  Investment sector representatives largely welcomed the government plan.  Simon Murdoch, a managing partner at Episode 1 Ventures, said the initiative “will need regular measurement and course correction to ensure adoption and then provide help to organizations like the NHS and local government to implement AI for their benefit.”  Andrew Scott, a partner at 7percent Ventures, pointed to the need for alignment with other government policies to avoid driving out venture capital through high taxes or opposition from public sector organizations, like the NHS, to AI improvements due to possible job losses.  Another investor, James Wise of Balderton Capital, welcomed the report, saying “it’s great to see such clear support vocalized for the U.K.’s growing AI sector… We hope the recommendations in this report become reality quickly.”  TechCrunch   Bloomberg

Polish digital minister outlines Russia-linked election disinformation campaign – Poland’s digital affairs minister says that a disinformation campaign linked to Russia has been attempting to influence the Polish presidential elections in May.  Krzysztof Gawkowski pointed to a group with likely linkages to the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, is conducting an operation to spread disinformation and “destroy the coherence” of Poland’s political environment.  The minister said, “never before in Poland’s history have, we been in a situation where we knew that a foreign country, openly waging war, is trying to influence Polish politics and elections.”  Poland will introduce a new plan to counter election interference later in January in light of what Gawkowski described as the country’s status as “the most attacked country in the European Union when it comes to cyberspace incidents.”  He added that “Russia no longer hides the fact that Poland is its main target.”  Gawkowski told reporters that “disinformation has become one of the key tools for building tension by various groups, often associated with the Russian or Belarusian flags.”  The Record

ASML-linked Dutch university shuts network, cancels classes after cyberattack — The Eindhoven University of Technology, a key source of talent for the Netherlands ASML chip-machine manufacturer, has shut down its computer network and canceled lectures following a cyberattack.  University president Patrick Groothuis explained that the computer network closure was a “necessary intervention to prevent worse outcomes.”  He added that investigations are continuing to determine if any data was stolen during the attack.  A university spokesperson said that “a lot of suspicious activity” was detected Saturday on the institution’s servers, adding that there has been no contact with the unknown hackers.  ASML has invested heavily in Eindhoven University of Technology as a training ground for prospective employees.  A university laboratory houses ASML lithography machines used in research.  South China Morning Post   Bloomberg

Offensive cyber operations to counter foreign attacks draw support but cautions as well — Officials associated with the incoming Trump administration, including National Security Adviser appointee Mike Waltz, reportedly are in favor of offensive responses to Chinese and other adversarial cyberattacks.  However, cyber experts underscore the complexities of offensive operations and the risks they entail, including the possibility of broadening cyber warfare.  Herb Lin, a senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, said he understands the appeal of hitting back at foreign cyber intrusions, “but] what are you going to do?  I haven’t seen a plausible scenario that actually gets them the outcome they want.”   Nevertheless, Walz has been quoted as saying the U.S. should “start going on offense and start imposing … higher costs and consequences” for cyberattacks directed at U.S. targets.  In addition, in the face of repeated foreign cyberattacks, including the Volt and Salt Typhoon operations, congressional legislators have queried witnesses at hearings about plans for cyber response, including a question posed by Sen. Dan Sullivan: “Why aren’t we going on offense, and doesn’t that help?”  Erica Lonergan, an assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, cautions that “we risk conflating different types of threats, and also like not being clear about what we mean by offense.”   Charles Moore, the former deputy commander and director of operations at Cyber Command, spoke in favor of “cyber campaigning” rather than one-off operations, noting that “this approach is more impactful than ad hoc operations but requires support from the other departments and agencies in order for Cyber Command to operate at the speed, and have the freedom of maneuver necessary for it to be accomplished effectively.”  Kurt Sanger, Cyber Command’s former deputy general counsel, said “the question for this administration is going to be, how do we send the right messages and create the right deterrent without causing an escalation?”  CyberScoop

China-Russia upward trade trends extend into 2025 amid Western sanctions — Information released by China’s customs agency indicates that Chinese Russian trade reached record levels in 2024, increasing 1.9 percent for a total value of $244.8 billion.  The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s exports to Russia totaled $115.5 billion, a 4.1 percent increase over the previous year.  Russian exports to China remained level at $129.3 billion.  The increases in trade were driven by increasing Russian demand for Chinese goods, including electronics, vehicles, and chemicals.  Alfredo Montufar-Helu, director of a China center at a U.S. think tank, commented that “Russian consumers have fewer alternatives to choose from in their domestic market because of Western sanctions.”  The primary Russian exports continue to be raw materials such as timber, crude oil, and other fossil fuels.  Montufar-Helu projected Chinese-Russian trade will continue to grow in 2025 as China’s market presence in Russia expands and Russia increases exports of raw materials to China.  South China Morning Post

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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