Tuesday, February 7, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas...
Senior Air Force General Says US Failed to Detect Previous Chinese Balloon Incursions. Air Force General Glen VanHerck, Commander of the North American Aerospace Command (NORAD) and NORTHCOM says that the US military did not detect previous instances of Chinese surveillance balloons that reportedly occurred under the Trump administration and admitted that the US has an “awareness gap”. General VanHerck says that evidence of the past balloon incursions was discovered after the fact and by “additional means of collection”. He also confirmed that the balloon that was shot down was 200 feet tall and that the payload weighed a “couple thousand pounds”. VanHerck says he could not rule out that the balloon carried explosives and that factored into the decision of where to take it down, but added that he had no evidence that explosives were on board. Reuters
China Confirms Balloon Over Latin America. Chinese officials have confirmed that a second balloon spotted flying in Latin America was theirs, providing a similar explanation for that balloon as they did for the one that was recently shot down in the US. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman says that the unmanned craft was used for research purposes and had veered “seriously off course”. A senior US defense official said over the weekend that the Pentagon believes that balloon in Latin America was also used for surveillance purposes. Wall Street Journal New York Times
UN Chief Warns of Risk of Escalation in War in Ukraine. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrez told the UN General Assembly that he is concerned the war in Ukraine could spread to a ‘wider war’, and says that the world has begun 2023 dealing with a set of challenges ‘unlike any in our lifetimes’. He blamed short-term thinking and a lack of action by politicians and decision makers as key factors which are exacerbating global risk. In addition to the war in Ukraine, which he fears will escalate, he also called for a radical shift in global finance and action on climate change. South China Morning Post Deutsche Welle
FBI Arrests Founder of Neo-Nazi Group in Plot to Attack Baltimore Power Grid. The FBI has arrested two people who are accused of plotting to attack up the electric grid in Baltimore, Maryland. One of the two, Brandon Russell is reportedly the founder of a neo-nazi group known as Atomwaffen Division, a group dedicated to the collapse of civilization according to a human rights group. The FBI says that a confidential informant aided in Russell’s arrest. Russell, a prior convicted felon, was on supervised release at the time of his arrest. Reuters says it was unable to reach attorneys for either Russell or the second suspect. Reuters
Ohio Residents Still Under Evacuation Order Following Catastrophic Train Derailment. Residents of East Palestine, Ohio remained unable to return to their homes following a catastrophic train derailment. Authorities say that 20 of the 100 cars in the train were carrying hazardous materials and that of those, five cars derailed which were carrying vinyl chloride. The incident prompted authorities to issue evacuation orders for a 1 mile by 2 mile area and to close area schools for the entire week. Authorities were planning to conduct a controlled release of the chemical which included blowing holes in the rail cars and then attempting to burn off the chemicals. Officials from the Environmental Protection Agency are reportedly monitoring air and water quality in the area. CNN Associated Press
Western Europe
EU Foreign Policy Chief says Nuclear Deal with Iran the Only Viable Solution. The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell says that reviving the Iranian nuclear deal is the only viable way to ensure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. His comments, made to reporters on a train following a trip to Kyiv, come amid criticism by some that Europe’s attachment to the 2015 deal is outdated. Britain, Germany and France, who were part of the 2015 deal remain committed to restoring the deal, but most analysts say there is very little chance of that happening. Wall Street Journal
Central and Eastern Europe
Speculation of Reshuffle at Ukraine Defense Ministry Comes Amid Reports of Russian Preparations for Offensive. Ukraine’s defense ministry is showing signs of turmoil amid uncertainty on the status of Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. David Arakhamia, a lawmaker and top ally of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said earlier that Reznikov would be replaced by Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov. He added that Reznikov would be named minister of strategic industries. Now, Arakhamia appears to be walking his comments back, saying no leadership changes will happen this week. An advisor to Zelenskiy later called for an end to speculation and said any changes will be officially announced. This comes as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced some personnel changes of local and regional military leadership but did not directly address speculation around changes at the Ministry of Defense. This comes as Ukraine’s Governor of the partially-occupied Luhansk region says that Russia is increasing the number of troops along the front line and moving additional equipment into place for what he says is a coming “full-scale offensive”. Reuters
Earthquake Kills More than 5000 in Turkey, Syria. Turkey says that 3419 people have been killed in the earthquake and that over 13,000 have been injured. Syrian authorities say that 1600 people were killed. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has asked for international assistance and declared a national week of mourning following the devastating event. US President Joe Biden says he has authorized an immediate response of US aid to Turkey, as have many other nations including the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The quake has been reported as a 7.8 magnitude and was reportedly felt in four countries. Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera France24 Reuters
Asia
Philippine Coast Guard Increasing South China Sea Presence. The head of the Philippine Coast Guard, Admiral Artemio Abu, said Monday that the Philippines is deploying more ships and conducting more overflights in the disputed South China Sea to protect the country’s maritime territory and fishermen. Abu’s comments came after a series of incidents where Chinese naval vessels encountered Philippine fishermen in the area. They also came after Manila announced an expanded military access agreement with the US as part of deterrence against China. Reuters
UN Report Says North Korea Stole Record Amount of Cryptocurrency in 2022. Reuters says that North Korea stole more cryptocurrency in 2022 than in any other year, while also targeting the networks of foreign defense companies according to a confidential UN report reviewed by Reuters. The report says that most of the cyberattacks, which it described as increasingly sophisticated, were carried out by North Korea’s main intelligence bureau, and included groups known by the names Kimsuky, Lazarus Group and Andariel. The report estimates that the total dollar amount of stolen cryptocurrency assets to be between $630 million and $1 Billion. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Members of Hamas Killed by Israeli Forces During Raid. The armed wing of Hamas, a group known as the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, says that five of its members were killed in an Israeli security operation in the West Bank town of Jericho. Israeli officials say the operation aimed to arrest a ‘Hamas terrorist cell’ it says was responsible for an attack on a restaurant the prior week. Witnesses reported heavy gunfire during the incident. BBC Wall Street Journal
Sub Saharan Africa
Somaliland Clashes Kill 34. Clashes between soldiers from Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland and fighters against the breakaway regional government killed 34 people on Monday. Officials say the fighters attacked military bases and government offices in the area and blamed “traditional leaders” seeking to rejoin Somalia for organizing the attack. Those seeking to rejoin Somalia say the breakaway government has not done enough to address local insecurity. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Italian Cyber Officials Say Criminal Group Likely Behind Cyber Attack on VM Software. Italy’s cybersecurity agency says that a recent ransomware attack that has affected thousands of networks around the world appears to be the work of criminal groups and says there is no evidence to suggest that a nation state was involved. The attack affected users of VMWare Software’s “ESXi”, which helps users manage virtual networks. A VMWare spokesman says the company released a patch for the software vulnerability in 2021 and urged users at the time to update their systems. Reuters
US Chip Equipment Maker Investigating Ransomware Attack. US chip equipment maker MKS Instruments said Monday that it is investigating a ransomware attack that affected its production systems last week. The company said it identified the attack on February 3 and has temporarily suspended some operations as part of containment efforts. The attack came as Italian cyber authorities warned of a global ransomware campaign targeting VMware ESXi servers. Reuters
Air Force Seeking AI System to Monitor Foreign Nationals at CENTCOM Sites. The US Air Force filed a request for information for contractors who can provide AI-driven surveillance systems to monitor foreign nationals working at US Central Command installations. The system would use automated alerts, AI predictive monitoring and behavior tracking. The Air Force says this system would force protection personnel right divert from duties related to monitoring foreign nationals. The system would likely first be used at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and could be further deployed elsewhere. DefenseScoop
US Cyber Ambassador Twitter Hacked. Nathaniel Fick, US ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, tweeted that his personal Twitter account was hacked. He did not detail the nature of the breach or who is suspected to have been behind the hack. CNN The Hill
Saudi Arabia Announces new Tech Investments from Oracle & Microsoft. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Communication and Information Technology Abdullah Alswaha, says that the kingdom has attracted $9 billion in new investment for future technologies. Alswaha says that US tech giants Microsoft and Oracle will contribute $2.1 and $1.5 billion respectively to build advanced cloud and data operations. The moves are part of a larger effort by Saudi Arabia to increase foreign investment and diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil, a program being led by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and known as Vision 2030. Reuters
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