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Monday, February 14, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Recovers Key Sensors from Downed Chinese Spy Balloon.  The US military’s Northern Command said Monday that US military crews recovered a “significant” amount of critical electronics and sensors from the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon downed last week off the South Carolina coast.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Brussels that these unidentified objects do not pose a military threat but may pose a risk to civilian air traffic and be engaged in intelligence collection missions.  He added that the US military has yet to recover debris from the other three aerial objects shot down over North America by US forces in recent days.  A senior White House official later said it may not be able to recover debris from these objects since they were downed over remote and difficult terrain.  The official said that without the debris, the US intelligence community will have to rely on observations by US military pilots and the objects’ flight patterns to learn more about the aerial craft.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau added that there is a pattern in the recent craft, though he did not elaborate on any potential connections.  Bloomberg CNN Reuters

Peru Pledges Narcoterrorism Response After Police Killings.  Peruvian President Dina Boluarte said Monday that her government will crackdown on “narcoterrorism” following the shooting of seven police officers on Saturday in an area of Peru where drug traffickers operate with remnants of Shining Path militants.  The shooting occurred in a region called the VRAEM, where around three-quarters of the country’s cocaine is believed to be produced.  Boluarte’s pledge to crackdown on narcoterrorism comes amid anti-government protests following the arrest of her predecessor, Pedro Castillo.  Reuters

Western Europe

Dutch Fighter Jets Intercept Three Russian Military Aircraft Near Poland.  The Netherlands’ defense ministry said Monday that two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them away.  The ministry said the Russian aircraft – including a Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft and two Sukhoi Su-28 fighter aircraft escorts – approached Poland from the Russian Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad.  Moscow did not comment on the incident.  The Dutch defense ministry inferred that the Dutch jets were two of the eight Dutch F-35s stationed in Poland for February and March.  Reuters

British Embassy Guard Allegedly Spied for Russia.  Prosecutors told a London court that a security guard at the British embassy in Berlin allegedly collected highly sensitive information between March 2018 till his arrest in August 2021.  The security guard was found to have collected information on embassy staff, diplomatic passports, documents on “sensitive trade matters” and even copies of a letter from two cabinet ministers to then Prime Minister Boris Johnson.  Authorities began investigating a guard in 2020 after discovering a letter containing sensitive information that he sent to the then Russian military attache to Berlin.  The guard has pleaded guilty to eight offenses under the Official Secrets Act.  Prosecutors say he was driven by anti-UK, anti-West and anti-NATO views, as well as views supportive of Russia in regards to the Ukraine war.  BBC Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023.  Institute for the Study of War 

NATO Says New Russian Offensive Underway in Ukraine.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday that Russia is sending more forces to Ukraine as part of a new offensive.  He said that this shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin is still seeking to control Ukraine and that there is “no sign whatsoever” that he wants peace.  Stoltenberg added that aircraft will be discussed at the NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels and that NATO will increase targets for ammunition stockpiles as Kyiv burns through munitions.  Meanwhile, Ukraine reports that the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is coming under heavy artillery fire amid other Russian attacks in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.  Reuters RFE/RL

UK Reports Russia Attacking, Not Making Decisive Gains in Ukraine.  British military intelligence reports that Russian forces have been ordered to advance along most of the frontline in Ukraine but have not amassed enough combat power to make significant gains.  The report notes that Russia’s Wagner Group forces have made some progress north of the city of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora.  However, Ukrainian resistance continues and Wagner has made little progress south of Bakhmut.  The report adds that Russian forces are making small-scale attacks in the Kremina-Svatove sector of Luhansk Oblast in a possible attempt to reverse Ukrainian gains in the region with a potential immediate goal of advancing west of the Zherberets River.  UK Ministry of Defense Twitter

Western Intelligence Says Russia Massing Aircraft on Ukraine Border.  Western intelligence agencies warned Ukraine that Russia may be preparing a new air assault to support depleted land forces.  Officials say the warning was made as intelligence from NATO members found that Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft on the Ukraine border.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a meeting of NATO defense ministers about the threat of Russia’s remaining air force and reportedly said there is a “short window of time” to help Kyiv prepare air defense capabilities.  The warning amid concerns by NATO and Ukraine about ammunition shortages and strained Western defense supply chains.  Financial Times

Moldova President Accuses Russia of Plot Against Her Country.  Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Monday accused Russia of planning to use foreign saboteurs to take down her country’s pro-EU leadership.  She said the plan involved having citizens of Russia, Montenegro, Belarus and Serbia enter Moldova and spark anti-government protests to topple the legitimate government for an “illegal government controlled by the Russian federation.”  Her comments came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine intercepted a Russian intelligence plan to destroy Moldova.  White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said reports of this plot have not been independently confirmed but were “certainly not outside the bounds of Russian behavior.”  Russia’s foreign ministry said such claims are “completely unfounded and substantiated” and blamed Kyiv for stoking tensions.  Associated Press BBC Reuters Washington Post

Moldova Temporarily Closes Airspace.  Moldova temporarily closed its airspace on Tuesday for over two hours.  Moldova’s national airline and Russian state media confirmed the airspace closure.  Sources say the closure was due to security concerns.  The development came one day after Sandu accused Russia of a plot against her government and days after a Russian missile violated Moldovan airspace during an attack on Ukraine.  Barron’s Reuters

Polish PM Says Poland Future Depends on Ukraine’s Future.  Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told a Polish newspaper that allies must boost aid to Ukraine to support Polish security as “the future of Poland depends on the future of Ukraine.”  He noted that it will be difficult to maintain long term EU support for Ukraine but that European unity and continued aid is essential for Ukraine’s victory.  He also supported Ukraine’s EU membership bid, saying Kyiv is paying a terrible price to resist Russia and grow closer with Europe.  Kyiv Post

Asia

Philippines Protests China Use of Laser, ‘Aggressive Activities.’  The Philippines filed a protest to the Chinese embassy in Manila on Tuesday over the Chinese coastguard’s apparent use of a laser on a Philippine coastguard vessel on February 6.  The Philippine Coast Guard said the Chinese vessel engaged in “dangerous maneuvers” and shined a blinding green laser light at the Filipino vessel to stop it from resupplying Filipino troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal in the contested Spratly Islands.  The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs described the Chinese vessel’s actions as a threat to Philippine sovereignty and security.  The Chinese foreign ministry said earlier that the Second Thomas Shoal incident was an “intrusion without permission” by the Philippine coastguard and that the Chinese vessel acted in a professional, restrained manner to protect China’s sovereignty.  The US State Department backed Manila, saying that China’s actions were “provocative and unsafe” and reiterating that an armed attack on the Philippines would trigger the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Taiwan Says Has Not Detected Chinese Spy Balloons.  A top Taiwanese military intelligence officer told reporters on Tuesday that Taiwan has not detected any Chinese surveillance balloons near the island.  The officer said most balloons detected in the area are used for meteorological purposes and are unlikely to be used for surveillance purposes as they lack steering capabilities.  He added that Taiwan will shoot down any balloons that pose a security threat but that such a response has not been necessary so far.  The officer’s comments came after the US military shot down several aerial objects over North America, including an apparent Chinese spy balloon.  His remarks also came after the Financial Times released a report citing unidentified sources who said Taiwan has frequently observed Chinese military balloon flights into Taiwanese airspace in recent years.  Financial Times Reuters

Japan Planning Bulk Order of US Tomahawk Missile Next Year.  Japanese Minister of Defense Yasukazu Hamada told reporters on Tuesday that Tokyo plans to bulk-order US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles by March next year as part of a new massive defense buildup.  Hamada said Japan wants to conclude the contract in the next financial year to buy the missiles from Raytheon Technologies Corp through the US foreign military sales (FMS) program.  The Tomahawks would give Japan long-range strike capability to deter attacks from potential adversaries like China and North Korea.  Reuters The Cipher Brief

Australia Warns Against Foreign Surveillance, Interference.  Australian Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said Tuesday that Canberra will publicly name foreign governments found responsible for surveillance and interference operations to deter further operations.  In her comments, O’Neil specifically called out Iran by revealing the domestic intelligence agency Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) shut down a surveillance operation by the Iranian government late last year.  The operation targeted a dual citizen linked to protests in Australia over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in Iranian police custody.  Notably, O’Neil did not mention operations by China, though other Australian officials said Tuesday that Chinese-made security cameras will be removed from key Australian government buildings and offices over security concerns.  Al Jazeera

Middle East and Northern Africa

China’s Xi Meets Iran’s Raisi, Urges Early Resolution of Iran Nuclear Issue.  China’s leader Xi Jinping met Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Beijing on Tuesday.  During their talks, Xi called for an early and proper resolution of the Iran nuclear issue while considering Tehran’s concerns to safeguard its rights and interests.  He added that China will “participate constructively” in nuclear talks and maintain friendly and strategic cooperation with Tehran.  Ahead of the meeting, Raisi wrote an editorial in Chinese state media saying that China and Iran reject unilateralism and “violent” measures like “unjust” sanctions, adding that the two countries will strengthen relations despite regional and international situations.  Reuters South China Morning Post

EU, US, UK Express Concern Over Israel Settlement Posts.  The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the US and UK released a statement on Tuesday saying they are opposed to the Israeli government’s recent approval for nine new settler outposts in the occupied West Bank.  The statement said the Western governments oppose these unilateral actions that will escalate tensions and undermine efforts to achieve a two-state solution.  Reuters

China Energy Firm Close to Qatar LNG Deal.  Sources say China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) is set to finalize a deal to purchase liquefied natural gas from QatarEnergy over the next 30 years as part of the Qatari energy exporter’s North Field expansion project.  The deal would be similar to an arrangement reached last November by China’s Sinopec to buy LNG from QatarEnergy for 27 years.  Analysts say the deals are part of Beijing’s drive to diversify energy supplies and transition from coal, as well as reduce carbon emissions.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

UN Seeking to Maintain Rights Office in Uganda After Being Told to Leave. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said it is negotiating with Uganda to continue its work in the East African country after being told to leave.  Uganda told the OHCHR last week that it will not renew the mandate of its office, saying its presence is not necessary since Uganda has developed sufficient domestic human rights monitoring abilities.  Rights activists have doubted this, saying Uganda’s move to oust the OHCHR instead underscores a deterioration in civil liberties.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

T-Mobile Suffers Outage Across US.  T-Mobile users reported network outages across the US on Monday that disrupted some cellular services.  The wireless carrier has not said how many users were affected or what may have caused the issue.  Outage tracking website Downdetector.com said the number of reports of T-Mobile outages peaked at 83,000 at around 10:20 p.m. ET.  The website also reported thousands of incident reports for other wireless carriers Verizon and AT&T.  Reuters

Pro-Russian Hackers Attack NATO Websites, Possible Disrupt Turkey-Syria Aid.  Pro-Russian hacking group Killnet launched a series of distributed denial of service attacks on several NATO websites.  NATO officials say the attacks were mostly repelled, classified networks were not impacted and that affected websites are being restored.  However, media reports say the attack affected networks used by NATO’s Strategic Aircraft Capability (SAC), which coordinates airlifts using C-17 aircrafts.  This reportedly disrupted SAC’s communications with at least one C-17 involved in aid missions for victims of the Turkey-Syria earthquake, though it is understood that NATO maintained contact with the aircraft during the attack.  Officials say that this attack is one of Killnet’s most dramatic attempts to get attention.  ComputerWeekly Cybernews

Beijing Backing Firms to Build AI Models Based on ChatGPT.  Beijing’s economy and information technology bureau said Monday that it will support firms in the city to develop large artificial intelligence models to challenge OpenAI’s ChatGPT generative AI app.  The bureau said it will back core AI firms to build an open source framework and accelerate basic data supply to build these models.  The bureau’s announcement underscores the urgency by Chinese firms to integrate generative AI technology into their products.  Reuters

Hackers Interrupt Iranian President’s Revolution Anniversary Speech.  Anti-government hackers briefly interrupted the online broadcast of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s televised speech marking the 44th anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.  During the speech, the logo of an anti-Iranian government hacker group appeared on the screen for about a minute as a voice said “Death to the Islamic Republic.”  Raisi used the speech to speak against recent anti-government protests and appeal to the “deceived youth” to turn from the protest movement.  CNN Reuters

 Ransomware Attack Hits Israel’s Technion University.  The Israel Institute of Technology, known as Technion, announced Sunday that it was suffering a cyberattack.  A previously unknown cybercrime group that calls itself “DarkBit” claimed responsibility for the attack and demanded $1.7 million in bitcoin as payment.  The group said it launched the attack on “the technological core of an apartheid regime” to protest the Israeli government’s wrongs, ranging from occupation to war crimes to tech sector layoffs.  Technion says it is slowly restoring online services, though it said it has “proactively” blocked communication and network access as part of incident response.  Campus operations remain unaffected.  BleepingComputer CyberScoop Jerusalem Post

Spain, US Take Down Phishing Gang.  Spain’s National Police and the US Secret Service announced that they have dismantled a Madrid-based international cybercrime gang.  Authorities say the gang specialized in online phishing and social engineering attacks and had stolen over 5 million euros from individuals and companies in North America.  The police arrested eight members of the organization in Spain and one in Miami.  They also blocked 74 bank accounts used by the group to handle stolen funds and seized luxury items and froze assets worth over 500,000 euros.  BleepingComputer

‘Pig Butchering’ Scams on the Rise.  Cybersecurity firm Sophos released a report on Monday saying that “pig butchering” scams where scammers seek to extract money from victims under the guise of friendship or love have been on the rise over the past 18 months.  Sophos said these scams followed the traditional path of using friendship and romance-related content to get victims to download a fake app or website posing as a wealth trading or producing platform.  Sophos added that it shared evidence of these scams with Apple, Google and other companies who were impersonated or whose infrastructure was used for the scams.  CyberScoop

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