Report for Tuesday, February 13, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Biden pushing for prolonged ceasefire in Gaza.

CIA chief, other mediators in Cairo pushing for Gaza ceasefire.

France proposes Hezbollah withdrawal, border talks for Israel-Lebanon truce.

Russia debuts new Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine.

Senate passes Ukraine-Israel aid package, fate in House remains uncertain.

House reveals Section 702 reauthorization, reform package.

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Biden pushing for prolonged ceasefire in Gaza.  President Joe Biden said Monday he is trying to arrange a six-week pause in fighting and hostage release while negotiations among the U.S., Israel, Egypt and Qatar go on for  “something more enduring.” Biden discussed the negotiations with King Abdullah II of Jordan, who visited the White House on Monday, then told reporters,   “The key elements of the deal are on the table. There’s gaps that remain, but I’ve encouraged Israeli leaders to keep working to achieve the deal. The United States will do everything possible to make it happen.”  King Abdullah, standing at Biden’s side, went further, urging an immediate cease-fire in the enclave and warning against Israel's planned military operation in Gaza’s southernmost city Rafah, now jammed with more than half Gaza’s population, fleeing from Israeli assaults elsewhere. “We cannot afford an Israeli attack on Rafah,” the King said. “It is certain to produce another humanitarian catastrophe. The situation is already unbearable for over one million people who have been pushed into Rafah since the war started. We cannot stand by and let this continue, we need a lasting cease-fire now, this war must end.”

The IDF rescue of two hostages early Monday brought into sharp focus the plight of the other hostages taken by Hamas and also Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.  Israeli commandos raided a heavily guarded apartment in Rafah and freed Fernando Simon Marman, 60, and Luis Har, 70. But the human toll was shocking.  The Israeli military reportedly created distractions to draw Hamas fighters’ attention by launching multiple air strikes on Palestinian neighborhoods. By 12:37 p.m. Monday, according to CNN,  the Gaza Health Ministry said the bombardment had killed at least 94 people throughout Rafah. That number could not be verified independently, nor was there a reliable number for civilians killed by the Israeli night strikes.  In an unusually pointed White House briefing Monday, NSC spokesman John Kirby said that while the U.S. was pleased that hostages were rescued, any number of civilian deaths was too high. Kirby added that the “proper number of civilian casualties is zero.”  Kirby’s remarks underscored President Biden’s warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “a military operation in Rafah should not  proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there.” Reuters The Hill  PBS News Hour  CNN  White House  Wall Street Journal Washington Post Al Jazeera Politico Reuters 

CIA chief, other mediators in Cairo pushing for Gaza ceasefire. CIA Director William Burns,  David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel are meeting in Cairo for another round of talks to secure the release of Israeli hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza. The talks come after Israel rejected a Hamas counter proposal for a pause to fighting and vowed to expand ground operations into Rafah. Officials say Egypt and Qatar have recently drafted a potential compromise for a six-week pause to fighting, under which three Palestinian prisoners would be released for each hostage freed in Gaza.  New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Israel Warned by ICC Prosecutor Over Gaza Conduct After Rafah Strike. The Chief prosecutor of the U.N.-affiliated International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Kham, warned Israel in a post on X to adhere to international law in Gaza and that his “office is actively investigating any crimes allegedly committed.” Kham’s post is in response to an Israeli special forces mission in Rafah overnight on Monday that freed two hostages and left over 60 Palestinians dead.  Bloomberg 

NYT ANALYSIS — A look at the Hamas tunnel under Al-Shifa hospital.  Gaza’s hospitals, particularly Al-Shifa Hospital, have become a focal point in the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli troops have entered hospitals searching for Hamas weapons, fighters, and underground infrastructure. Evidence suggests that Hamas used Al-Shifa for cover, stored weapons, and had a tunnel beneath it. The tunnel discovered beneath Al-Shifa Hospital was found to be at least 700 feet long, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times. Israel has struggled however to prove its claim that Hamas used Al-Shifa as a command center, having only publicized information about the one tunnel and not the massive underground complexes it said were under the facility. U.S. intelligence supports the Israeli claims, and says there is evidence that Hamas used Al-Shifa to hold some hostages and that Hamas fighters left the tunnel network days before the Israeli raid. Critics have said Israeli operations at hospitals have caused high civilian casualties and strained Gaza’s healthcare system. Israel continues to defend its controversial operations around hospitals, saying Hamas is using them as cover to hold hostages and turning civilians there into human shields.  New York Times

France proposes Hezbollah withdrawal, border talks for Israel-Lebanon truce.  France has presented a written proposal to Beirut to halt hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel along the Lebanon-Israel frontier. The plan, delivered by French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne to top Lebanese officials, outlines a three-step process that includes a 10-day de-escalation period aimed at reaching a ceasefire and negotiations on delineating the disputed land border between Lebanon and Israel. The plan also calls for a withdrawal of armed groups, including Hezbollah's elite Radwan fighters, 10 kilometers from the border, along with the deployment of Lebanese army troops to the region. Lebanese officials said Beirut is concerned over issues like vague wording on the dismantling of armed groups’ facilities. Hezbollah did not comment on the proposal, but has rejected formal negotiations until the war in Gaza concludes.

Hostilities continued despite the French proposal. Hezbollah launched missiles into northern Israel on Tuesday, injuring at least two people, according to emergency officials. Hezbollah claimed that it launched two separate attacks at Israeli soldiers and a police building in the northern town of Kiryat Shmona.  Reuters Times of Israel New York Times

UK sanctions Israeli settlers in occupied West Bank.  The British Foreign Office on Monday announced sanctions on four Israeli settlers accused of committing human rights abuses against Palestinians. The Foreign Office said the sanctions were a response to “unprecedented levels of violence by extremist settlers in the West Bank.” The four sanctioned Israelis will have a freeze on their financial assets in the UK, as well as a ban on travel and obtaining visas. Al Jazeera Associated Press 

THE RED SEA

U.S. military says Houthis hit cargo ship bound for Iran.  U.S. military officials said that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis hit an Iran-bound cargo ship in the Red Sea on Monday. Central Command said the Houthis launched two missiles at the Greek-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged vessel Star Iris, causing minor damage. There were no casualties. CENTCOM added that the ship’s destination was Bandar Iman Khomeini, Iran. It appears to be the first time the Houthis targeted an Iran-bound vessel since they started attacks in the region over Israeli military operations in Gaza.  Reuters Associated Press  Al Jazeera  

CIPHER BRIEF INTERVIEW — On the Brink of Escalation Between the U.S. and Iran.  Two Iranian ships, the Behshad and the Safiz are suspected of providing intelligence to the Houthis, aiding attacks against commercial and U.S. vessels in the Red Sea. Iran has issued a stern warning not to attack the ships.  Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Norman Roule, discussed the prospect of the ships being targeted by the U.S. as part of efforts to curb Houthi and other Iran-backed attacks in the region.  Roule also discusses what other targets the U.S. may be considering as part of its retaliation against the drone attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. soldiers; how this could impact the U.S. force posture in Syria or Iraq; and the future of the Red Sea situation.  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia debuts new Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine  Russia is thought to have fired its recently developed hypersonic Zircon missile at Ukraine on Feb. 7. If true, it would mark the first use of this new weapon system in the Russian war on Ukraine, according to Oleksandr Ruvin, director of the Kyiv Scientific-Research Institute for Forensic Examinations.  Ruvin based his conclusion on an analysis of missile fragments from a Russian air strike that struck apartment buildings and energy infrastructure and killed five on Feb. 7.  Russia claims the Zircon, initially conceived as a sea-launched weapon and later modified to launch from land, has a range of 625 miles and travels at nine times the speed of sound. Military analysts say that missiles traveling at hypersonic speeds give air defense systems much less time to react. Consequently, says an analytical paper published last year by the U.K.’s Royal United Services Institute, a military issues think tank, “such compressed reaction times could significantly reduce the number of missiles needed to overwhelm the air defenses of a surface task group...Against ground targets, the kinetic energy on impact of a hypersonic missile may allow deep and hardened targets to be attacked.”  Reuters RUSI 

Ukraine downs 16 drones in Russian attack overnight, Dnipro power plant hit.  Monday night, Ukraine’s Air Force reports that Ukrainian air defense intercepted 16 of 23 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Some drones and a missile were launched at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. A power plant in the city was significantly damaged in the attack, causing power outages in the area, according to Ukraine’s main private energy company DTEK.  Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky heading for European capitals, in hope of more arms deliveries. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend the Munich Security Conference, then visit Paris, Berlin and possibly London to press for faster military aid to defend against invading Russia troops.  Western allies were deeply disappointed when last year’s counteroffensive against the Russians fizzled out.  Zelensky and his aides blamed delayed arms deliveries pledged by the U.S. and Western allies.  He’ll also be seeking talks on security guarantees.  Bloomberg Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine accuses Russia of disinformation campaign to smear new military chief.  Ukrainian authorities say Russia is trying to undermine new commander-in-chief Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi by planting stories about his early years as a Soviet officer with Russian relatives.  Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said Monday that the negative stories about Syrskyi are aimed at dividing the Ukrainian military and discrediting Syrskyi. “Russians are struggling to portray the new commander-in-chief as a Soviet and a Russian,” the council’s disinformation unit said in a statement. “For this purpose they are looking for his relatives in the Russian Federation, ‘family friends,’ getting comments from them and spreading the comments over the information space with a certain context.” Syrskyi was born in July 1965 in the Vladimir region of what was then the Soviet Union.  He attended military school and training in Moscow, with comrades who are now officers in the Russian army.  But he has made Ukraine his home since the 1980s, according to Reuters.   Bloomberg  Reuters  

Ukraine to produce thousands of long-range drones in 2024.  Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov tells Reuters that Ukraine will manufacture thousands of long-range drones capable of striking deep into Russia this year, and that 10 companies are producing drones that can reach Moscow and St. Petersburg. He said a recent series of strikes on Russian oil facilities shows Ukraine’s progress in deregulating the drone market and increasing funding for it. According to Fedorov, Ukrainian drone production has increased by more than 120 times in 2023. He said the government allocated approximately $2.5 million in grants to military start-ups through the government’s BRAVE1 initiative, adopted last year, an amount he said will be increased by about 10-fold this year.  Reuters 

Former police officer charged for allegedly directing Russian missile strike on Hroza.  A former Ukrainian police officer, Dmytro Mamon, has been charged in absentia with treason for his alleged role in directing a Russian missile strike on the village of Hroza in Kharkiv Oblast in October 2023. The strike occurred during a memorial service, killing 59 civilians and marking the deadliest attack against Ukrainian civilians in 2023. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) identified Dmytro and his brother Volodymyr as collaborators with occupying Russian forces, accusing them of cultivating a network of informants to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements and gatherings. The brothers reportedly fled to Russia after Ukraine liberated the region in late 2022.  Kyiv Independent 

Court arrests ex-Defense Ministry official in connection with weapons procurement fraud.  The Appeals Chamber of Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court ordered the arrest of Oleksandr Liyev, former head of the Defense Ministry's procurement department, for his involvement in a corruption scheme related to the purchase of almost 100,000 mortar shells worth nearly $40 million. He was taken into custody and faces bail set at $1.3 million. The scheme involved Defense Ministry officials and Lviv Arsenal managers diverting funds abroad without delivering the purchased arms. Liyev denies the charges and plans to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, stating the bail exceeds his income. Kyiv Independent 

Ex-Ukrainian lawmaker Pashynskyi charged with illegally appropriating state-owned oil.  Former Ukrainian lawmaker Serhii Pashynskyi and five others face charges for allegedly misappropriating nearly 100,000 tons of state-owned oil in 2014, announced Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) on Feb. 12. The scheme reportedly involved selling oil confiscated from controversial businessman Serhii Kurchenko to companies linked to the accused. Despite receiving full payments from the Defense Ministry, less than 2% of the promised oil was delivered, with the rest allegedly sold to Russia and Belarus. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says the scheme caused nearly $26.3 million in losses to the state budget. Pashynskyi, previously accused of money laundering in connection with Kurchenko's oil, could face up to 12 years in prison. There was no mention of how Pashynskyi plans to plead or any statement from his attorney.  Kyiv Independent  

Norwegian intelligence says Russia gaining edge thanks to China, North Korea.  Nils Stensønes, director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS), briefing reporters Monday as part of Olso's annual security threat assessment, said that Moscow is in a "stronger position than it was a year ago and is poised to gain the upper hand" against Kyiv's troops.  Russia can mobilize "three times more troops than Ukraine'' if needed, he said.  He added that Kyiv needs "extensive" military aid from its Western partners to reverse the course of the war. The report says that Russia’s move to a war economy puts its arms industry in a good position. “The industry is now capable of manufacturing sufficient ammunition and other materiel to ensure the continuation of the war in Ukraine throughout 2024,” the report said.  “In the face of Western sanctions, Belarus, China, Iran and North Korea are the most relevant cooperation partners for technology and skills transfer….Russia is in the process of restoring core capabilities to continue the war against Ukraine, including weapons and materiel for the land forces. The rate of production of missiles and attack drones is also being accelerated in order to retain the ability to attack areas behind the frontline, Ukrainian population centers and critical infrastructure. Increased production of weapons and materiel, re-organization of the forces and a steady supply of new personnel could pave the way for a major Russian offensive in 2024. Hard-earned experience and testing of new technology and weapons systems on the battlefield in Ukraine will also affect the development of the Russian armed forces in the years to come.” Newsweek Focus  

Russian FSB probing disappearance of dozens of aircraft.   Izvestia, the Russian state newspaper, reported Monday that the Federal Security Service, FSB, Russia’s equivalent of the FBI, is  investigating  several employees of the Federal Air Transport Agency for “ illegally removing 59 planes and helicopters from Russian jurisdiction" after Moscow invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago. Some of those aircraft turned up in the hands of the Ukraine military, Izvestia reported, citing two anonymous Russian law enforcement sources and an unnamed source in Moscow's transport ministry.  Ukraine used several Mi-8 helicopters and an Il-76 multi-purpose strategic airlifter against Russian forces in Ukraine, the newspaper reported. Newsweek reached out to Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency, the Ministry for Transport and Ukraine's military for comment via email, but these requests were not answered.   Newsweek  

Tankers used for Russian oil increasingly targeted by sanctions.  U.S. sanctions are increasingly stopping Russian tankers transporting crude oil, with approximately half of the 50 sanctioned tankers failing to load cargoes since the sanctions were imposed on October 10. The U.S. has strengthened enforcement of the sanctions in response to potential breaches of the $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian crude, leading to ballooning freight costs and deeper discounts on Russian oil. The impact is seen in the idling of sanctioned vessels and disruptions to crude deliveries, particularly to India. Western regulators are now targeting both sanctioned and non-sanctioned vessels in an effort to curb evasion of the price cap.  Bloomberg Bloomberg 

Russia's dependence on exports to Asia rises as business with Europe falls.  In 2023, Russia saw a significant increase in trade dependency on Asia while European business plummeted, according to Russian customs data. Total exports fell by 28.3% to $425.1 billion, with European exports down 68% to $84.9 billion. Conversely, exports to Asia rose 5.6% to $306.6 billion, constituting 72% of Russia's exports, up from 49% in 2022. Total imports increased by 11.7% to $285.1 billion, with European imports down 12.3% to $78.5 billion and imports from Asia up 29.2% to $187.5 billion. Machinery imports surged by 24% to $146 billion, while mineral product exports, including energy, dropped by 33.6% to $260.1 billion.  Reuters

Russia, U.S. clash at U.N. Security Council over Ukraine war. Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia on Monday accused the U.S. and the West of sabotaging international agreements in 2022 that would have allegedly prevented the war in Ukraine. In his remarks, Nebenzia was referring to the failure of the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements, which aimed to resolve tensions resulting from Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Nebenzia said that had the agreements been implemented, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine and that the U.S. and the West are “complicit as they try to achieve their geopolitical aims at the cost of Ukraine and the lives of its citizens.”  U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood countered with accusations that Russia was guilty of promoting “significant myths and disinformation”, and says Moscow continues to try to rewrite history following its invasion of Ukraine, which Wood says was in violation of the U.N. Charter. “Moscow has called us together today to lament the very violence it began, fueled and it continues to perpetrate daily,” he said.  Associated Press 

Moldova destroys explosives in stray Russian Shahed drone.  Moldavan authorities said yesterday they destroyed explosives discovered In the remains of a Shahed drone that crashed in its territory from the war in Ukraine. Police said 50 kilograms of explosives were discovered among the done parts Sunday at the crash site near the town of Etulia, close to the border with Ukraine, and that they suspect the drone was shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire. Moldavan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi said Russia’s “constant barbaric attacks' ' against Ukraine are having a direct effect on Moldava.  Associated Press

E.U. adopts law for using seized Russian assets for Ukraine. The European Union (EU) has adopted a law to designate windfall profits from frozen Russian central bank assets to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine. The E.U. and the Group of Seven (G7) nations froze approximately €300 billion ($323 billion) in Russian central bank assets in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Until now, only taxes on the assets located in Belgium have been allocated to a specific fund for Ukraine, managed by the Belgian government. The new law prevents central securities depositories (CSDs) from using net profits and requires them to keep revenues from Russian assets separate. The move is seen as a step toward fulfilling the EU's goal of utilizing the funds for Ukraine's reconstruction, with an estimated €15 billion ($16.17 billion) in profits expected over the next four years. The Kremlin has yet to respond to the move. Moscow has previously contested any attempt to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, claiming it would be illegal and result in prolonged litigation. Reuters

Canadian-Russian woman pleads guilty in US to sending military components to Russia. A Canadian-Russian woman, Kristina Puzyreva, pleaded guilty on Monday in a U.S. court to money laundering in a multimillion-dollar plan to send drones and missile components to Russia to use against Ukraine. Puzyreva’s scheme was discovered by The U.S. Department of Justice's Task Force KleptoCapture, which enforces sanctions and analyzes foreign transfers to Russia. When sentenced in U.S. court, Puzyreva faces a maximum penalty of up to 20 years in federal prison.  Reuters CBC 

Russia introduces bill to ban foreign state-funded organizations. Russian lawmakers on Monday introduced a bill that would expand the purview of existing legislation that bans what it Russia calls “undesirable” Western organizations from operating within Russia. The initial law against Western organizations in 2015 has been used to target perceived opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin, including NGOs, human rights groups, and media outlets. Currently, there are 137 “undesirable” organizations banned from operating in Russia. Kyiv Independent

Russia, Belarus banned from ice hockey world championships for another year.  The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has barred Russian and Belarusian national and club teams from the 2024/2025 championship season. Belarus is also disqualified from the August 2024 Olympic Qualification Round. IIHF President Luc Tardif cited security reasons for the bans. The decision aligns with the International Olympic Committee's ruling allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics as neutrals. A decision on their participation in the 2025/2026 IIHF season will be made in May 2025, pending an appeal by Russia to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Kyiv Independent

Over 10,000 square meters of land contaminated from Russian attack on oil depot, Ukraine says.  Regional Ukrainian police officials say that a Russian drone attack on a Kharkiv oil depot caused a fuel leak that has contaminated 10,000 square meters of land. The fire from the attack killed seven people and injured 57, prompting Mayor Terekhov to declare a day of mourning. The depot held over 3,800 metric tons of fuel, polluting nearby land and the Nemyshlia River. Soil and water samples were collected for analysis, and police are considering opening a criminal case for ecocide. Prime Minister Shmyhal estimates that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused over $59.8 billion in environmental damage, including the destruction of the Kahovka hydroelectric plant, which led to massive flooding and a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv Independent  

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Senate passes Ukraine-Israel aid package, fate in House remains uncertain.  The Senate voted 70 to 29 to pass a $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel early on Tuesday morning. The measure received bipartisan backing, with 22 Senate Republicans voting with almost all Democrats for the bill — five more Republicans than had voted to push the bill over the last procedural hurdle on Monday night. The measure’s fate is uncertain in the House due to continued opposition from House Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, over its lack of border provisions. New York Times Associated Press Reuters CNN Kyiv Independent Bloomberg 

Biden’s TikTok debut flags bipartisan concerns from House China Panel. Members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party have expressed concern about President Joe Biden's campaign starting a TikTok account to boost outreach to younger voters. The committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, said the issue “screams out with national security concerns,” noting national security concerns and China-based Bytedance’s control of the app’s algorithm. Rep. Mike Gallagher, the Republican chair of the panel, echoed that national security concerns “outweigh” the need to garner younger people’s votes. He noted that Congress has been working with the Biden administration to “either ban or force a sale” of TikTok, making the Biden campaign’s move particularly disappointing. The Biden campaign has not responded to the criticism. The White House says there is no change to U.S. policy on TikTok.

On Feb. 27, 2023, the White House ordered TikTok removed from all federal government-issued phones.  The executive order gave federal employees 30 days to comply. Biden signed the No TikTok on Government Devices Act into law in December 2022, banning the download or use of TikTok, and requiring the removal of TikTok from all federal government devices. The measure allowed for TikTok use in certain cases related to national security, law enforcement and research purposes. Over half of U.S. states have enacted bans on state government-issued devices.  Bloomberg CNN Associated Press Defense.gov

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs says Trump comments put U.S. ‘credibility’ at stake.  Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown Jr. emphasized the importance of upholding alliances and maintaining U.S. credibility in response to former President Donald Trump saying he would "encourage" Russian aggression against NATO countries that are "delinquent" on financial and military contributions. Brown reassured NATO allies of U.S. commitment, highlighting the significance of supporting alliances globally, saying, "U.S. credibility is at stake with each of our alliances, and US leadership is still needed, wanted and watched."  The Hill CNN 

OPINION — What “Exercising American Strength” Looks Like in the U.S. Senate.  Cipher Brief Senior National Security Columnist Walter Pincus calls for the U.S. to take action to address shortcomings in the U.S. defense industrial base that are impacting production of conventional weapons, leading to a strain on stockpiles amid the ongoing Ukraine war.  He adds that misunderstandings on what is included in proposed funding and a Republican drift towards isolationism must also be addressed.  The Cipher Brief 

Austin cancels Brussels trip due to hospitalization, expected to resume normal duties Tuesday.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday canceled a planned trip to Brussels for a Ukraine aid meeting after being admitted to the critical care unit at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting will now be held virtually. Austin was hospitalized for an "emergent bladder issue" and underwent non-surgical procedures. Austin did transfer duties to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks during the hospital visit. The Pentagon says he is expected to “resume his normal duties” on Tuesday.  Politico Stars and Stripes The Hill CNN 

House reveals Section 702 reauthorization, reform package.  House Republicans introduced a new package to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The Rules Committee will discuss the legislation this week, aiming to extend and reform the surveillance power. The bill is expected to reach the floor for a vote on Thursday or Friday. The proposed amendments include restrictions on the FBI’s access to 702 data, a warrant requirement to search for Americans' information, and a measure preventing data brokers from selling consumer information to law enforcement. Congress has until mid-April to extend the authority, but Republicans are seeking action this week since the House is expected to leave after Friday until February 28, after which Congress will face funding deadlines.  Politico The Hill 

CIPHER BRIEF COVERAGE OF SECTION 702 — Cipher Brief Expert and former General Counsel of the National Security Agency and Central Security Service, Glenn Gerstell, discussed Section 702’s history and its modern stakes. Cipher Brief Senior National Security Columnist Walter Pincus also wrote on why Section 702 is the spy tool that all Americans need now. And Cipher Brief Expert General Joseph Votel (Ret.) former Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, argued that the reauthorization of 702 is critical to national security.

U.S. upgrading aging B-52s under bomber fleet overhaul.  The U.S. Air Force faces challenges in maintaining its aging B-52 bomber fleet.  The Air Force aims to keep the B-52 operational until about 2060, potentially making it a nearly century-old bomber. The service lacks spare parts to maintain the fleet, forcing it to “cannibalize” parts from one B-52 to support another, impacting operational readiness. The Air Force is launching a $48.6 billion overhaul to modernize the fleet with upgrades planned for engines, radar, avionics, and weaponry. The overhaul is part of the most extensive revamp of the U.S. bomber fleet in over a generation, preparing for the introduction of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and retirement of the aging B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit models.  Defense News Defense News Defense News

ANALYSIS — Chinese shipyards are ready for war. American ones aren’t.  New analysis from the Wall Street Journal says that China has ascended as a dominant shipbuilder, accounting for over half of global commercial ship production. In contrast, the report says that Europe and the US contribute minimally.  A western security analyst says that “The scale [of China’s shipbuilding] is just almost hard to fathom,”. This transformation underscores China's shift from a land-focused to a maritime-focused power, aiding its military ambitions and global influence. Chinese shipyards, thriving on both commercial and military contracts, outmatch their Western counterparts. Their ability to rapidly increase production during wartime grants China a significant advantage. Meanwhile, the US struggles with an aging shipbuilding industry, unable to match China's capacity. Naval experts emphasize the critical importance of fleet size in maritime power, urging a revitalization of American shipbuilding.  Wall Street Journal 

U.S. seizes Iranian-tied Venezuelan plane grounded in Argentina.  The U.S. seized a Venezuelan-owned Boeing 747 with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). U.S. officials said the cargo jet was sold to Venezuela's state airline Emtrasur by Iran’s Mahan Air, which the U.S. sanctioned for allegedly trafficking arms for the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah. The Justice Department said this sale violated U.S. sanction laws. The plane was grounded in Argentina in 2022 after the U.S. issued a seizure warrant for the aircraft after it touched down. An Argentine court decided last month to hand over the plane, and the Department of Justice confirmed that the aircraft arrived in Florida on Monday. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil criticized the seizure as “shameless robbery.”  Wall Street Journal The Hill Associated Press

U.S. seeks auction of Russian oligarch’s superyacht due to $7 million annual maintenance cost.  The U.S. government is spending over $7 million annually on maintenance of the superyacht Amadea, which the U.S. seized from sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. Fiji authorities seized the vessel in May 2022, pursuant to a U.S. warrant alleging ownership by Kerimov. The U.S. is seeking court permission to auction the yacht, which Rosneft executive Eduard Khudainatov, who has not been sanctioned, is challenging by claiming ownership of the Amadea. Prosecutors argue that the high maintenance costs of the vessel justify an auction. Any proceeds from an auction would likely be used to support Ukraine.  Reuters

CENTCOM appoints new deputy commander.  Vice Adm. Brad Cooper was named deputy commander of Central Command on Monday. Cooper turned over command of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet to Vice Adm. George Wikoff on February 1.  CENTCOM X

Mexican police dismantle meth "mega-lab” in Sonora state, confiscate 40 tons, in biggest seizure under current administration. Mexican armed forces dismantled a major methamphetamine laboratory in Sonora, marking the largest drug lab bust under the current administration. The navy seized 4.13 metric tons of meth and 1.27 tons of precursor chemicals. The facility contained 72 laboratory reactors, five times more than the previous largest lab in the region. The bust comes amid pressure from the US to combat drug trafficking, while Mexico urges the US to address the flow of firearms to drug cartels across the border. Reuters Associated Press ABC

Mexico arrests members of drug gang behind the alleged killing of 8 people in Cancun.  Mexican prosecutors said yesterday that six members of a drug gang in Cancun have been arrested for allegedly hacking five people to death with a machete and dumping three others into a shallow grave. Authorities also said 23 people have been arrested on charges they operated a fake tour agency that served as a cover for drug sales in Cancun, and that another suspect was arrested for allegedly using social media sites to buy and sell drugs. The announcements came a day after prosecutors confirmed that an American woman and a man from Belize were shot to death last week in what appeared to be a dispute between drug dealers at a beach resort in Talum, south of Cancun. Prosecutors said the American woman had no connection to an alleged drug dealer also killed in the shooting Friday night, and that she appeared to have been caught in the crossfire. Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

Former Chinese envoy to U.S. says Beijing will not fall into trap of war in Taiwan Strait.  China's former ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, said that “someone” is supplying weapons to Taiwan for a “proxy war” in which “Chinese will be killing Chinese” and that Beijing “will not fall into that trap.” His comments at the Asia Spotlight conference appeared to reference U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Cui added that he hopes Washington will consider the interests of Asia-Pacific countries, including China, and prevent tensions in the region from escalating to Cold War levels, cautioning about the potential for a “dangerous decade.” Regarding Taiwan, he described its recent election as a "local election in China" and affirmed China's commitment to reunification in a manner that serves the national interests of the entire Chinese nation.  South China Morning Post

Taiwan detects Chinese aircraft and vessels near island.  Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reports, “2 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels were detected operating around Taiwan up until 6 a.m. today. 1 of the aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s northern ADIZ.” The ministry reports that a Chinese balloon was detected off Taiwan’s west coast.  Taiwan Ministry of Defense X

ANALYSIS — Is Beijing trying to create ‘new status quo’ with balloon flights over Taiwan?  Since Lunar New Year's Eve, Taiwan detected 16 Chinese balloons have crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, with a record eight on one day. Analysts suggest that China’s People’s Liberation Army is using the balloons to pressure Taipei by creating a new status quo where there is no legal boundary in the Taiwan Strait. Experts say the balloons may also be used to gather meteorological data for military planning. Taiwan’s military does not plan to shoot down the balloons, citing concerns about civilian casualties and property damage.  ​​South China Morning Post Newsweek

ANALYSIS — North Korean rocket launch system and wider weapons development poses challenge to China.  North Korea's announcement of a new rocket launcher control system could escalate military tensions and contribute to an arms race in the region, according to analysts. The strategic implications for China are described as "tricky" as it seeks stability on the Korean peninsula but also acknowledges the growing strategic utility of North Korea amid competition with the U.S. Beijing also faces competition with Russia for influence over North Korea, which analysts suggest China may address by offering stronger economic incentives to Pyongyang. The key issue is whether North Korea is in a position to start a major military conflict, which would depend on support from China and Russia, which both do not currently see as in their interests.  South China Morning Post

CIPHER BRIEF INTERVIEW — Pakistan’s Election Stunner - and the Dangers Ahead.  It was a stunning result that few saw coming: a clear victory at the polls for Pakistan’s jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan, despite an aggressive campaign by the country’s military to discredit Khan, weaken his party, and – according to many observers – rig the vote. It’s also a moment of high anxiety and potential danger for a Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation that was already home to rising extremism and an economic crisis. The Cipher Brief tapped Hassan Abbas, Distinguished Professor of International Relations at the Near East South Asia Strategic Studies Centre (NESA), at the National Defense University in Washington, to assess the election results and the dangers that lie ahead.  The Cipher Brief

Europe

Estonia’s Intelligence chief warns of long-term military threat from Russia. Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service warns of Russia's preparation for a potential military clash with the West within the next decade, urging a counter build-up of armed forces to deter aggression. Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief says that "Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so.”  The report says that Moscow plans to double forces along NATO's borders, particularly with Finland and the Baltic States, and indication of a long-term confrontation strategy. While a short-term military attack seems unlikely due to ongoing commitments in Ukraine, preparation is essential to mitigate risks. Increased military spending by the Baltic States and NATO's plans to bolster troop presence in the region are signs that the alliance is taking the threat seriously.  Germany plans to have 4800 troops deployed in the region by 2027, marking its first permanent foreign deployment of troops since WWII.  Reuters

Russia puts Estonia leader on wanted list over removal of Soviet-era monuments.  Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has been listed as wanted in Russia due to her efforts to remove Soviet-era World War II monuments in Estonia. Estonia and fellow NATO countries Latvia and Lithuania have recently taken down monuments that are widely viewed as a legacy of Soviet occupation of those countries. The move, reflecting tensions between Russia and the West amid the Ukraine conflict, marks the first time a foreign leader has been listed by the Russian Interior Ministry. Kallas, known for advocating increased military aid to Ukraine, appears alongside Estonian Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys on the list, which also includes officials and lawmakers from Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The action highlights Russia's stance on historical memory and its response to NATO pressure over the war.  Associated Press

Russia sanctions British officials, academics. Russia's Foreign Ministry on Monday announced new sanctions against 18 British nationals — including British defense and military officials, diplomats, and academics — who Moscow accuses of attempting to demonize Russia amid the Ukraine war.  The ministry said the “Russophobically charged” individuals aim to discredit and subvert the Russian government and are prolonging the war in Ukraine.  Those sanctioned are barred from entering Russia.  There was no immediate comment from the British government.  Al Jazeera Kyiv Independent

Germany’s finance minister emphasizes transatlantic ties, calls for stronger European efforts.  German Finance Minister Christian Lindner emphasized the importance of transatlantic ties, stating that they will endure irrespective of the U.S. presidential election results in November. Lindner highlighted the need for Europe to be attractive to the U.S., focusing on economic competitiveness and taking responsibility for its security. He also urged European nations to do their "own homework" to be an appealing partner for the U.S. He also argued that Europe talks too much about Donald Trump and suggested a focus on Europe's own strengths and responsibilities.  Bloomberg

OPINION — Will Germany fill gaps left by U.S.?  Former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder writes in an op-ed for Politico that “the uncertainty of America’s commitment to Europe — namely, on whether it will continue to underwrite and maintain the global order that’s been the basis of Germany’s postwar success — represents a profound change and challenge to Berlin, as well as the rest of the world.” Daalder highlights Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent visit to Washington as an indication of how serious the issue is for Germany and Europe.  During the visit Scholz urged the U.S. to continue its unwavering support for European security amid escalating tensions with Russia.  Politico

Poland, France, Germany agree to bolster European defense. The governments of Poland, France, and Germany met on Monday and agreed to work towards bolstering European security and defense power to provide greater support to Ukraine and prepare for the potential return of former President Donald Trump. Talks between the three countries on Monday followed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s independent meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, where he signaled Poland’s willingness to support broader European security efforts. Following their talks, in a joint news conference, Scholz warned against suggesting that NATO’s mutual defense clause is not absolute. “Any relativization of NATO's guarantee of assistance is irresponsible and dangerous,” he said in response to Trump’s questioning of the alliance.  Associated Press Reuters 

Poland, France, Germany warn against Russian disinformation. The foreign ministers of Poland, France, and Germany on Monday accused Russia of implementing elaborate misinformation campaigns in the West. The ministers said Moscow’s misinformation campaigns spread pro-Russian propaganda to undermine European governments, discredit the value of joint-defense through NATO, and undermine credibility ahead of E.U. elections in June.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press

E.U. proposes curbs on three Chinese firms for aiding Russia.  A European Union draft proposal calls for new trade restrictions on about two dozen companies, including three in China, accused of supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. If the proposal is adopted, it would be the first time the EU has imposed restrictions on mainland Chinese companies since the war began. The list of companies to be sanctioned also includes one firm each from Hong Kong, Serbia, Kazakhstan, India, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Thailand. The companies were not named, but most of them are technology and electronics firms. The restrictions would prohibit European companies from trading with the listed firms.  Bloomberg

Germany, Denmark start construction at new ammunition plant.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who attended the ceremony with his defense minister and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen marked the groundbreaking ceremony for a new ammunition factory at Rheinmetall's site in Unterluess, northern Germany. The factory is expected to produce around 200,000 artillery shells annually. Rheinmetall is investing about €300 million ($324 million) in the project. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the new facility is essential for supplying the Bundeswehr and European partners with artillery ammunition, emphasizing the importance of increasing production amid Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine.  Associated Press 

Austria seeks to end Russian gas import contract.  Austria's Energy Minister, Leonore Gewessler, announced plans to explore ending Austrian energy company OMV's long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom, seeking to reduce dependency on Russian gas. Despite pressures to shift from Russia, OMV, a partly state-owned oil company, indicated its intention to continue purchasing gas from Gazprom until 2040. Gewessler expressed dissatisfaction with the slow progress in diversifying gas imports, revealing that the Russian share of Austria's gas imports rose to 98% in December. The energy ministry plans to commission a study on the economic impact of terminating the contract and explore measures to make companies reduce dependence on Russian gas.  Reuters

Hungary’s Orban says Serbia should join E.U. before it is lost to China.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in an interview to be published later this week that the E.U. will “lose” Serbia to China unless Serbia is admitted to the bloc soon, adding that Serbia should be admitted before Ukraine. Serbia applied for EU membership in 2009, but the E.U. has concerns about the country’s commitment to democracy and its ties with Russia and China. In his warning, Orban cited Serbia’s recently concluded free trade agreement with China, Belgrade’s second-largest trading partner after the EU, as a sign that the Balkan country is drifting towards Beijing. Orban also expressed doubt about Ukraine’s prospects for fending off Russia and joining the EU, saying the only way for Ukraine to survive is as a buffer between Russia and the West.  Politico

Cyprus president wants the European Union to discuss designating Syria safe zones for refugees. Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides is urging the EU to consider establishing safe zones in Syria to facilitate the return of refugees and migrants, aiming to ease the strain on Mediterranean countries. He stresses the need for EU discussion on Syria's situation and to identify areas where migrants could potentially return. While migrant arrivals in Cyprus have decreased overall, those from Syria and Lebanon have surged. Germany, empathizing with Cyprus's plight, has agreed to take in 1,000 asylum-seekers. Efforts to combat people-smuggling and manage asylum applications are underway.  Associated Press 

Middle East

Iran simulates strike on Israeli airbase.  Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted a simulated naval strike on a major Israeli airbase. State television aired footage showing the IRGC launching missiles from ships and submarines at a re-creation of Israel's Palmachim airbase. At least two variants of long-range ballistic missiles were shown being launched in the display. The simulation is seen as a message to Israel amid the Gaza war and escalating tensions in the region.  Al Jazeera

Africa

South Africa deploying 2,900 Troops to Eastern Congo.  The South African Presidency said on Monday that South Africa will deploy 2,900 troops to the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo to help fight armed groups as part of the Southern African Development Community initiative (SADC). The South African Presidency said the deployment would continue until December 2024. Tanzania and Malawi also are contributing troops to the effort. Congo has said SADC troops began arriving last December and are involved in operations against the M23 rebel group, which has made advances in recent days and threatens the provincial capital of Goma.  The SADC announcement comes as U.N. peacekeepers, including a contingent from South Africa, and an East African force prepare to depart the region amid tensions with Congo President Felix Tshisekedi.  Bloomberg Reuters 

ECOWAS sends diplomatic mission to Senegal.  The West African bloc ECOWAS sent a diplomatic mission to Senegal to discuss the country’s political solution after the delay to its presidential election scheduled for February to December. The speaker of the ECOWAS parliament, Sidie Mohamed Tunis, and members of the bloc assembly will meet Senegalese authorities, officials, and civil society representatives.  Reuters 

Central African Republic says 10,000 children are still fighting alongside armed groups there.  An official from the Central African Republic says that approximately 10,000 children are still enlisted in armed groups, exploited as fighters, spies, and even sex slaves, despite efforts to end the practice. Since the civil war began in 2013, armed factions have recruited children, with many suffering trauma and struggling to reintegrate into society. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced a fifth of the country’s population. Though a peace deal was reached in 2019, fighting persists. The U.N. aims to prevent child recruitment, offering training programs for released children, while local groups urge the government to expedite peace efforts.  Associated Press 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Kremlin, Musk deny Starlink Internet terminals used by Russian troops in Ukraine.  A Kremlin spokesperson on Monday denied that Russian military forces are using the Starlink satellite system in parts of occupied Ukraine.  Separately, Elon Musk posted to X that “no Starlinks have been sold directly or indirectly to Russia."  The Kremlin explained that the Starlink system is not certified for use in Russia and “cannot be used officially in any way.”   A Ukrainian intelligence directorate reported Sunday that Starlink terminals are being used by Russian military units in the eastern region of Donetsk.  The Starlink account on X noted that “if SpaceX obtains knowledge that a Starlink terminal is being used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party, we investigate the claim and take actions to deactivate the terminal if confirmed.”  A Ukrainian source told DefenseOne last week that “tens of Starlink terminals” are in use by Russian forces, adding “when they have hundreds, it’ll be hard for us to live.”  Reuters Cybernews

Sudan paramilitary group accesses Starlink services amid nationwide Internet outage.  A Sudanese paramilitary force is using Starlink Internet services even as a nationwide Internet blackout persists amid the country’s 10-month civil war.  The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that have been battling Sudanese government troops acquired Starlink technology last August through trade routes with Chad and South Sudan that are controlled by the RSF.  A trader in South Darfur said some RSF-linked providers in the region are charging civilians about $2 an hour for Starlink access.  A Sudanese engineering association says the RSF severed Internet links throughout the country because of a loss of connectivity in the western Darfur region, stronghold of the paramilitary groups.  A UN relief official said the communications blackout is “preventing people from accessing essential services and transferring funds.”  Bloomberg

CISA issues urgent advisory to Federal agencies to patch Fortinet device flaw.  A vulnerability impacting a Fortinet VPN device that could be “exploited in the wild” has triggered warnings from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) that Federal agencies should install a patch within a week.  CISA’s concern about the bug affecting FortiOS SSL VPN was apparent by the urgency they attached to mitigating the issue, which normally is in the three-week range.  CISA did not specify if the flaw is being exploited by ransomware gangs.  State-linked hackers favor Fortinet vulnerabilities because the devices are widely used by government agencies.  The Dutch defense minister reported last week that Chinese hackers had breached an internal computer network through a fault in FortiGate devices.  The Record   BleepingComputer

White House videos will be ‘cryptographically verified’ to foil deepfakes.  In the wake of a recent fake robocall in New Hampshire impersonating the voice of President Joe Biden, several actions are being taken by the administration to prevent repeat incidents.  Ben Buchanan, Biden's Special Advisor for Artificial Intelligence, has announced that the White House will “cryptographically verify” all official White House releases, including the president’s speeches.  This move follows on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) action last week to outlaw robocalls generated by AI.  Buchanan said the goal of the cryptographic measure is to ensure that anyone viewing a White House video can immediately confirm it is authentic and not manipulated by a third party.  Buchanan said, "this is a case where we recognize the potential for harm.  We're trying to get ahead of it."  CybernewsBusiness Insider

Nvidia CEO urges each country to develop own AI infrastructure.  Jensen Huang, the CEO of the Nvidia chipmaking firm, told a conference in Dubai that each country needs to create an AI infrastructure for itself to benefit economically and to shield its own culture.  Speaking at the World Government Summit, Huang said, "you cannot allow that to be done by other people."  Huang said Nvidia is “democratizing” access to AI through gains in AI computing efficiency, adding that "the rest of it is really up to you to take initiative, activate your industry, build the infrastructure, as fast as you can."  Huang downplayed the risks of AI, noting that new technologies in the past have been successfully regulated.  Speaking of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s goal of raising $7 trillion for an AI semiconductor initiative, Huang said the chip industry will drive down AI development costs and make such huge investments in chip manufacturing and development unnecessary.   Reuters Bloomberg

OPINION — Information Quality is a Democratic Necessity in the Age of AI.  Cipher Brief Expert and former Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Ellen McCarthy, and strategic advisor to the Institute for Security and Technology (IST), Doowan Lee, write on discussing trusts in institutions globally, especially regarding the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) on election integrity. They emphasize the importance of information quality as the currency of democracy and the foundation of trust in institutions.  The Cipher Brief

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief