Report for Tuesday, February 11, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Russia plays hardball on Ukraine peace discussions after Trump talks of Putin contact.

Senate vote signals Tulsi Gabbard will be confirmed as director of national intelligence.

Hamas says it will stop releasing Israeli hostages, charges Israel broke truce.

Chinese scientists claim stratospheric airship can detect U.S. F-35 fighter from 2,000 km.

China’s Xi is Building an Economic Fortress Against U.S. Pressure

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

On Gaza, Trump Says the Quiet Part Out Loud – and Then Some.President Trump’s shocking proposal to “own” and develop the Gaza Strip are some uncomfortable truths, writes Beth Sanner who served in the U.S. intelligence community for 35 years, most recently as the president’s daily briefer during Trump’s first term, then Deputy Director for National Intelligence at the office of the Director of National Intelligence.  She writes that the criticism, though justified, ignores three hard truths:  1) conditions in Gaza are inhumane, dangerous, and not sustainable for 2 million residents; 2) rebuilding Gaza without removing Hamas will only renew the cycle of war; 3) Trump’s unwillingness to voice support for a two-state solution accurately reflects that it is, as Dennis Ross recently put it, “little more than a slogan at this point,” given that two-thirds of Israelis and Palestiniansoppose it.  But these truths must remain unspoken because Hamas has no reason to free the remaining hostages if Israel and the U.S. make it explicit that their end goal is “cleaning out” Gaza, which would mean destroying Hamas.   The Cipher Brief  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday,’ Trump says ahead of Zelensky meeting with Vance. In the second part of his interview with Fox News, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine’s future remains uncertain, saying, "They may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday." Trump reiterated his demand for a return on U.S. aid to Ukraine, framing it as a business transaction. "We are going to have all this money in there, and I say I want it back. And I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500 billion worth of rare earth. And they have essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid." Trump said Ukraine’s “tremendously valuable land” also includes oil and gas, among other assets. He estimated that America has spent more than $300 billion on Ukraine, far more than Europe. “We take care of the military, and they take advantage of us on trade,” Trump said of Europe. He said 1.5 million Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have been killed in the war. He confirmed that his envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, would soon travel to Ukraine to draft a peace proposal. Also, U.S. Vice President JD Vance plans to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference later this week. Trump’s remarks signal his intent to negotiate a swift end to the war, but his framing of Ukraine’s sovereignty and U.S. financial interests raises questions about the direction of his administration’s policy. The Guardian Politico EU

Sources say US will push European allies to buy more arms for Ukraine. The Trump administration is pressing European allies to buy more American weapons for Ukraine ahead of potential peace talks, aiming to bolster Kyiv’s position without additional U.S. spending. Trump’s envoy, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, will discuss ways to end Russia’s war on Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference that starts Friday. Asked about the effort, Kellogg said, "The U.S. always likes selling weapons made in America because it strengthens our economy," adding, "There are a lot of options out there. Everything is in play right now." Meanwhile, previously approved Biden-era weapons shipments are still arriving in Ukraine. Washington’s broader strategy is to shift more responsibility onto Europe, with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stating, "The Europeans have to own this conflict going forward." Reuters

Russia plays hardball on Ukraine peace discussions after Trump talks of Putin contact. Russia insists that Ukraine must fully meet its demands before any peace deal, reinforcing a tough stance following U.S. President Donald Trump's vague remarks about progress in talks. The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied direct contact between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that Ukraine must drop NATO ambitions and cede full control of four Kremlin-occupied regions. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed that negotiations must respect Russia’s "legal national interests." Trump, who pledged to end the war swiftly, has not detailed his plan. While Russia claims it is open to talks, its demands remain non-negotiable, suggesting no shift in U.S.-Russia dynamics. Ukraine and its allies reject Moscow's conditions, calling them an ultimatum. Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea, while Ukrainian forces still hold portions of Russian-occupied regions, particularly Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Kyiv continues to seek U.S. support, offering rare earth supplies in exchange for financial aid. Reuters

Kellogg, Trump team coming soon to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a high-level Trump administration team will visit Ukraine before the Munich Security Conference from Feb. 14-16, without specifying who would be part of the delegation. CNN, meanwhile, reports that the U.S. president’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, is expected in Kyiv after the Munich conference, possibly on Feb. 20. Politico EU

Ukraine Envoy to Present Trump Peace Options In Coming Weeks. President Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg, will present peace options in the coming weeks after consulting officials at the Munich Security Conference this week and visiting Kyiv and other European capitals. Trump aims to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump would “begin to lay out a broad path forward.” European officials are pushing for stronger sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and frozen assets, while the Trump administration wants Europe to spend more on defense and take a larger role in supporting Ukraine, including supplying peacekeeping troops to enforce any peace agreement. The U.S. seeks Ukrainian access to critical minerals and increased purchases of U.S. energy in exchange for continued support. Bloomberg

ANALYSIS–Can European ‘Boots on the Ground’ Help Protect Ukraine’s Security? As discussions about ending Russia’s war on Ukraine intensify, experts argue that securing Ukraine post-war could require 150,000 troops, with U.S. air and intelligence support. President Donald Trump has floated cease-fire negotiations, but European nations remain divided on deploying forces. France, Britain, and the Baltics have expressed interest, while Germany and Poland hesitate without firm U.S. backing. Russia rejects any NATO presence in Ukraine, complicating security arrangements. The "porcupine" model may be the most feasible strategy—arming Ukraine with advanced weaponry to deter future invasions. The issue will be central at the upcoming Munich Security Conference, attended by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Meanwhile, Trump appears more focused on diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin than committing to European-led security efforts. If a cease-fire is reached, ensuring its enforcement without direct NATO involvement will remain challenging, testing the West’s long-term commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty. New York Times

ANALYSIS–Trump pushes for a quick end to Russia’s war, but much could go wrong. U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a Ukraine peace deal risks major pitfalls. His envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, will discuss options at this week’s Munich Security Conference before visiting Kyiv. But any plan will be Trump’s to unveil. Kellogg’s April blueprint proposed a ceasefire, conditional military aid, and European peacekeepers, with elections during the truce—a vote that could end Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency. Speculation over Zelensky’s future is intensifying, with ex-military chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi leading in some polls. An election under wartime conditions could be chaotic, vulnerable to Russian interference, and lead to internal instability. Meanwhile, Russia slowly gains ground in Donetsk and sees no reason to halt its offensive. While hinting at intensified discussions, the Kremlin maintains rigid demands, making genuine compromise unlikely. The push to quickly end the war could fracture Ukraine politically, embolden Moscow and other autocratic regimes, and lead to a settlement that weakens global security. CNN

US representative proposes bill to restore lend-lease for Ukraine program. U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson (Republican-South Carolina) proposed the Freedom First Lend-Lease Act on Monday to restore the expired lend-lease program for Ukraine, giving President Donald Trump authority to send weapons without congressional approval. Wilson called the initiative a way to pressure “war criminal” Russian President Vladimir Putin War and criticized former President Joe Biden for not using the original 2022 program, which expired in September 2023 without implementation. The bill’s prospects remain unclear, as Congress excluded a lend-lease extension from the $895 billion defense bill passed in December 2024. Ukrainian diplomats continue lobbying for its revival to streamline U.S. military aid. Kyiv Independent

Russia massing troops for new assaults in Chasiv Yar, military warns. Russia is amassing troops for renewed assaults on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, according to Ukrainian military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets. The town, a key battleground 25 kilometers from Kramatorsk, has been partially under Russian control since Ukraine withdrew from the eastern Kanal neighborhood in July 2024. Russian forces are regrouping and concentrating on the town’s approaches for further attacks. Over the past week, they have shifted tactics, avoiding armored vehicles and using quad bikes and buggies for logistics. The buildup signals an imminent escalation in Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Drone headsets sent to Russian troops were booby-trapped to explode when switched on. Russian soldiers received booby-trapped drone headsets that exploded when switched on, according to Russian state media. The headsets, reportedly donated as humanitarian aid, contained plastic explosives in every unit. Russian manufacturer JSC NPP confirmed the sabotage but did not report casualties. Pro-Russian sources claimed this was part of a broader effort to infiltrate military supply chains. Experts likened it to Israel’s sabotage of Hezbollah equipment last year, highlighting vulnerabilities in crowdfunded military gear. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces increasingly rely on private donations, raising concerns about security risks in their supply networks. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility. Business Insider

U.S. funding freeze threatens Ukraine investigations of alleged Russian war crimes. The U.S. funding freeze on foreign aid has disrupted Ukraine’s war crimes investigations, halting $89 million in aid and forcing nearly 40 experts to stop working. Since 2022, Ukraine has opened over 140,000 cases of alleged Russian war crimes, but with $47 million in U.S. funding specifically for war crimes accountability now frozen, key efforts—including evidence preservation and victim support—are stalling. The Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union lost 75% of its budget, shutting regional offices, while other NGOs risk layoffs. The freeze has also affected the planned launch of an American-funded case management system that is part of a broader effort to help modernize Ukraine's judiciary. Some officials downplay the damage, noting Ukraine has gained investigative expertise, but others warn the freeze emboldens perpetrators and weakens global accountability. Reuters

Drone strike targets Russia's key Saratov oil refinery. A Ukrainian drone strike targeted Russia’s Saratov oil refinery overnight on Tuesday. The refinery processes 7 million tons of oil annually and is key to fueling Russia’s military. Saratov Governor Roman Busargin confirmed drones hit an industrial site but did not specify if it was the refinery. Russian officials claimed air defenses shot down 40 drones overnight, including 18 over Saratov Oblast. Saratov, nearly 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine, has many strategic sites, and previously struck on Jan. 8. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine imposes power restrictions after Russia attacks gas infrastructure. Ukraine imposed emergency power restrictions Tuesday after Russian missile strikes targeted gas infrastructure overnight, leaving nine settlements in Poltava’s Myrhorod district without supply. Energy Minister German Galushchenko confirmed ongoing attacks on the sector, with Russia shifting focus from electricity to gas storage and production sites. In winter, Ukraine consumes 110-140 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas daily and has increased imports from Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland to compensate. Reuters

3 killed, 17 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed at least three civilians and injured 17, authorities said on Tuesday. Russia launched 124 Shahed drones, with Ukrainian air defenses downing 57. Two were killed and six injured in Kherson Oblast, while four were injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Drone debris injured two in Cherkasy Oblast, and three were wounded in Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv suffered damage but reported no casualties. Kyiv Independent

6 injured in Russian airstrike on Kharkiv Oblast village, including child. A Russian airstrike on Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast on Tuesday injured at least six people, including a 12-year-old boy, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported. Three victims were hospitalized, while others received on-site treatment. The attack, using guided aerial bombs, hit a house. Kyiv Independent

Hundreds Of Russian Soldiers Hospitalized, Treated In North Korea, Report Says. Hundreds of Russian soldiers wounded in Ukraine are receiving treatment in North Korean hospitals, according to Russia’s ambassador to Pyongyang, Aleksandr Matsegora. His comments highlight growing military ties between the two countries, which signed a strategic partnership last November. Western intelligence has reported Russia purchasing millions of North Korean artillery shells and deploying up to 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region. Russia is also supplying coal, food, and medical aid to North Korea, while children of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine have been sent there for holidays. RFE/RL

Russia shows off fifth-generation jet at India air show, claims it was used in Ukraine war. Russia showed off its latest fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57E fighter jet at an air show in India on Monday. The combat aircraft was described as a model used in its war on Ukraine, and Moscow offered it for sale overseas. South China Morning Post 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Feb. 10. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the "Drone Line" project, expanding five drone regiments and brigades to create a strike system integrating infantry and drones for deeper kill zones and continuous aerial support. Unlike Ukraine’s decentralized model, Russia has consolidated drone operations under state control, disbanding informal detachments and bureaucratizing drone development, potentially slowing innovation.  Ukrainian drones hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai, targeting Russian fuel infrastructure vital to military logistics. Reports indicate Russian authorities authorized systematic torture of Ukrainian prisoners as early as March 2022, with Major General Igor Potapenko instructing elite prison forces to use unrestricted violence. The Kremlin may be setting the stage for North Korean citizens to enter Russia for work or military service under the guise of educational cooperation. Under Russian pressure, Transnistria refused €60 million in European Union gas aid, instead relying on Russian-backed financing for European gas purchases.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Justice Department to stop enforcing law banning bribery of foreign officials. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday directing Attorney General Pam Bondi to stop enforcing the 1977 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. “It sounds good on paper, but in [practice] it’s a disaster,” Trump said. “It means that if an American goes over to a foreign country and starts doing business over there legally, legitimately or otherwise, it’s almost a guaranteed investigation, indictment and nobody wants to do business with the Americans because of it.” Financial Times Reuters

Senate vote signals Tulsi Gabbard will be confirmed as director of national intelligence. Senators voted along party lines Monday evening to end debate – a process known as cloture – and move Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to serve as director of national intelligence.  The final confirmation vote is slated to happen later this week, and her confirmation appears certain. GOP Sens. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voted to advance the nomination.  New York Times   Washington Post  Politico 

U.S. to levy 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. President Donald Trump ordered tariffs of 25 percent on all steel and aluminum imports Monday. Officials said the tariffs, to take effect March 4, were a response to “foreign players” responsible for “undermining US producers” of steel and aluminum. Bloomberg reported that the levies, which include finished metal products, are meant to crack down on efforts by countries like Russia and China to circumvent existing duties.  Although the move is designed to protect domestic steelmakers, they will probably affect U.S. allies — including Canada and Mexico — and could sharply raise costs for American manufacturers. “This is a big deal — making America rich again,” Trump said.  Financial Times  Bloomberg  New York Times

Trump seeking more military spending as DOGE looks to make cuts elsewhere. President Donald Trump has advocated for plans to increase U.S. military spending, despite Elon Musk’s push to cut trillions in federal spending. Trump stated he wants a strong defense budget but also expressed a desire to negotiate arms reductions with China’s and Russia in the future. At the same time, Musk's cost-cutting initiative, known as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is auditing Pentagon finances and aiming to find spending cuts in the Defense budget. However, Musk's federal contracts with the Defense Department have raised conflict-of-interest concerns. Trump’s plan to raise defense spending complicates Congressional budget battles, as some Republicans push for broad spending cuts while others support a larger military budget. Trump has also ruled out cuts to Social Security and Medicare, leaving limited options for reducing government costs. To finance his spending priorities and planned tax cuts, Trump has proposed raising money through tariffs, but estimates suggest this revenue would fall short of covering the costs. Bloomberg 

Trump has unleashed chaos by distraction upon the international community. President Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy has thrown international leaders into disarray. His recent comments on annexing Greenland and taking control of Gaza have sparked outrage, with Saudi Arabia issuing an “absolute rejection.” Trump’s threats of high tariffs forced Colombia to accept U.S. deportees, while Denmark has scrambled to counter his rhetoric. His administration is also pulling the U.S. out of the World Health Organization again and dismantling USAID, raising concerns over humanitarian aid. European leaders, already grappling with Trump’s NATO skepticism, fear economic instability from potential trade wars. Meanwhile, far-right European leaders have embraced his agenda.  Associated Press

Boston man acquitted of charges alleging he acted as Chinese agent. A Boston man, Litang Liang, has been found not guilty of acting as an unregistered agent for China after being accused of providing Chinese officials with information on individuals, dissidents, and pro-Taiwan groups in the local Chinese community. The federal jury acquitted the 65-year-old American citizen on Monday in a case that U.S. authorities had framed as part of efforts to counter China's influence abroad. Prosecutors alleged that from 2018 to 2022, Liang shared information with Chinese officials and founded the New England Alliance for the Peaceful Unification of China, which promoted Beijing’s stance on Taiwan. They also claimed he helped organize a counterdemonstration against pro-democracy protesters and attempted to recruit individuals for Chinese authorities. Liang denied the charges, arguing that his activities were open and legal, and his lawyer called the prosecution an attack on free speech. While prosecutors expressed disappointment, the case was seen by some as an attempt to discourage activism aligned with China. Reuters  South China Morning Post

Humanitarian aid convoys could be made vulnerable to U.S. military strikes amid USAID shutdown. The shutdown of a key humanitarian notification system by the Trump administration has raised serious concerns about the safety of aid workers in conflict zones. The system, previously run by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), helped relay real-time locations of humanitarian aid convoys to the Pentagon, ensuring they were not mistakenly targeted by U.S. military strikes. With USAID’s operations largely halted and staff reduced, the system has been offline for over a week, leaving aid convoys vulnerable in war zones like Yemen and Syria. The administration’s decision has reportedly put lives at risk, though officials declined to comment. While militaries have sometimes disregarded such notifications, as seen in past U.S. and Israeli strikes on aid convoys and hospitals, many aid groups see a functioning system as critical for their safety. Experts warn that its shutdown creates a dangerous “black hole” of information, increasing the likelihood of civilian casualties and aid worker deaths. Bloomberg 

Venezuela deploys planes to bring back migrants from U.S. Venezuela has resumed accepting deportation flights from the U.S. following the recent agreement between strongman Nicolás Maduro and President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell. Two flights carrying 95 deportees each, operated by state-run airline Conviasa, arrived in Caracas on Monday. Among the deportees were members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which Washington has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. This move paves the way for the U.S. to deport thousands of Venezuelan migrants, fulfilling Trump’s campaign promise to curb undocumented migration. The Biden administration had previously negotiated deportation flights with Venezuela in October 2023, but they were suspended in February 2024. Bloomberg South China Morning Post Le Monde 

Maduro Government Accused of Dark New Tactic: Assassinations. The assassination of Venezuelan dissident Ronald Ojeda in Chile marks a troubling escalation of Nicolás Maduro’s crackdown on opponents abroad, drawing comparisons to tactics used by Vladimir Putin. Chilean authorities suspect Maduro’s government ordered the killing, allegedly using the Tren de Aragua crime group, which President Donald Trump is considering designating as a terrorist organization. The case has severely strained Chile-Venezuela relations, with Santiago closing consulates. Meanwhile, Trump is negotiating with Maduro to deport Venezuelan migrants, including Tren de Aragua members, raising concerns over U.S. engagement with an authoritarian regime implicated in extraterritorial assassinations. New York Times

Haitian migrants describe abuse, fears as Dominican Republic clamps down on illegal migration. Mass deportations of Haitian migrants from the Dominican Republic have intensified under President Luis Abinader, forcing thousands back into a country plagued by brutal violence, famine, and instability. Many deportees report abusive treatment, including unauthorized home raids, racial profiling, and the expulsion of unaccompanied minors. Vice Admiral Luis Rafael Lee Ballester, the Dominican migration director, denies deportations of unaccompanied minors, but UNICEF asserts that last year, the Dominican Republic deported 1,099 unaccompanied children. More than 31,200 people were deported in January alone. Despite the crackdown, many Haitians attempt to return through prolific smuggling networks. Smugglers offer illegal crossings for small fees, often bribing Dominican border guards to allow passage. Dominican authorities argue that Haitian migrants overburden public services, particularly in healthcare and education. However, activists accuse the government of denying legal documentation to Haitians born in the Dominican Republic, making them vulnerable. Meanwhile, businesses in agriculture and construction—sectors heavily reliant on Haitian labor—are now struggling to find workers. As the crisis worsens, human rights abuses continue, including reports of violence during deportations. Abinader has defended his policies, warning that Haiti's instability poses a regional security threat and calling for greater international intervention. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Russia refuses to confirm that Trump and Putin spoke. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday that he would “neither confirm nor deny” President Donal Trump's comments Sunday that he and Putin had spoken, marking their first official contact since 2022. “Let’s just say I’ve had it ... and I expect to have many more conversations,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.  “We have to get that war ended…I hate to see all these young people being killed. The soldiers are being killed by the hundreds of thousands.” Trump declined to provide any more details or divulge how many times the two had spoken, responding, “I’d better not say.”  Also Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a media conference that relations with Washington “are balancing on the brink of a breakup.” He insisted that the war in Ukraine would last until Kyiv agrees not to join NATO and withdraws from the four regions occupied by Russian forces.  Rybabkov added, “We simply imperatively need to get ... the new U.S. administration to understand and acknowledge that without resolving the problems that are the root causes of the crisis in Ukraine, it will not be possible to reach an agreement.”  NBC News

Germany’s likely next chancellor outlines his vision in an interview. Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and likely the next chancellor, told The Economist that Germany’s economic model is no longer sustainable and called for sweeping reforms. On defense, Merz supports strengthening Europe’s arms industry and deepening cooperation with France and Poland. He acknowledged that Germany must increase military spending beyond the NATO-required 2% of GDP but resisted external pressure and timelines, saying, "It is not my task to make President Trump happy.” He backed using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. He ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine during the war, saying, "A country at war is not a potential NATO member," though he supports Ukraine joining NATO in the future. He did not dismiss the idea of European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine but only "after a reliable ceasefire." The Economist

Russian energy official says US sanctions should not hinder oil trade with India. Russian First Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said that U.S. sanctions should not disrupt Moscow’s oil trade with India, emphasizing that energy trade should remain separate from politics. Speaking at the India Energy Week conference, he said it was too early to assess the full impact of recent U.S. restrictions, which have caused disruptions in Russian oil shipments. Indian Oil Corp reported potential declines in Russian oil imports due to sanctions but is avoiding sanctioned entities. Sorokin criticized the sanctions as illegal, claiming they have increased global economic uncertainty and raised capital costs for the energy sector. Reuters

Finland summons Russian ambassador over suspected airspace violation. Finland summoned Russia’s ambassador over a suspected airspace violation on Feb. 7, when a Russian plane allegedly entered Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland near Hanko for a few minutes. The Finnish Border Guard is investigating, and the foreign ministry has requested an explanation from Moscow regarding the incident. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Hamas says it will stop releasing Israeli hostages, charges Israel broke truce.  Hamas on Monday announced it would stop releasing Israeli hostages until further notice and accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Hamas was slated to release more Israeli hostages on Saturday in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The violations, according to Hamas military wing spokesperson Abu Ubaida, included delaying Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza, firing on Palestinians and obstructing humanitarian aid. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz countered that it was Hamas that violated the ceasefire. He raised the military level of readiness in Gaza and for domestic defense to the highest level. Israel accused Hamas of releasing hostages out of order and abusing hostages during handoffs to the Red Cross. Israel denies Hamas' claim that it was slowing the flow of aid. Aid organizations have said that the flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza has improved since the ceasefire took effect. But Reuters reported that Israel had refused requests by the United Nations, Qatar and others to send temporary housing units into Gaza. President Donald Trump told reporters Monday, “If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock … I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out.” When asked whether he meant retaliation, Trump said, “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out, too. Hamas will find out what I mean.” Reuters Washington Post Associated Press Bloomberg BBC The Guardian South China Morning Post  

Harrowing accounts of Israeli hostages’ fuels fears for remaining captives. Recently released Israeli hostages have reported severe abuse during their captivity in Gaza by Hamas, including starvation, torture, and a lack of medical care. The frail condition of three hostages freed on Saturday—Eli Sharabi, Or Levy, and Ohad Ben-Ami—has intensified calls for the continuation of the cease-fire deal to secure the release of those still held. Families of remaining hostages have received distressing updates from Israeli military sources, describing their loved ones as being bound, malnourished, and denied medical treatment for serious injuries. Some captives were reportedly kept in underground tunnels for months without sunlight, proper hygiene, or sufficient food. Medical experts warn that the hostages are at severe risk due to water deprivation, infections, and psychological trauma. The fragile cease-fire agreement, which facilitated hostage exchanges, is under threat as Hamas postponed further releases, citing alleged Israeli violations. Meanwhile, relatives of freed captives emphasize the urgency of securing more releases, fearing that any delay could cost lives. New York Times

Trump says the U.S. could withhold aid to Jordan, Egypt if they refuse to take in Palestinians.  On Monday, after signing executive orders, Trump was asked whether he would consider withholding aid from Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to take in Palestinians displaced from Gaza. “Yeah, maybe, sure, why not? If they don’t, I would conceivably withhold aid, yes,” Trump said. Jordan’s leader, King Abdullah II, is set to meet the president in Washington Tuesday. In the past, Jordan has declined to accept more Palestinians, for fear of instability.  During an interview with Fox News host Bret Baier that aired Monday evening, Trump said that under his proposal for the U.S. to “own” and rebuild Gaza, Palestinians displaced from Gaza to neighboring countries would not have the right to return. “Think of it as a real estate development for the future. It would be a beautiful piece of land,” Trump said of his plan.  Asked by Baier if Palestinians could return to Gaza, Trump replied: “No, they wouldn’t, because they’re going to have much better housing. In other words, I’m talking about building a permanent place for them.”  Washington Post

Jordan’s King Faces a Bind as He Meets With Trump. King Abdullah II of Jordan faces a difficult White House meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, as Trump pushes for the expulsion of 1.9 million Palestinians from Gaza and demands that Jordan and Egypt take them in. Abdullah has firmly rejected the plan, which Middle East experts say could destabilize Jordan, where over half the population is of Palestinian descent. However, refusing Trump’s demands risks jeopardizing the $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid that Jordan relies on, including covert CIA funding. The king is also expected to push back against potential Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which could trigger regional unrest. While Jordan has strong bipartisan support in Washington, Trump’s threats could force the kingdom to seek financial backing from Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. With Trump still focused on securing a Saudi-Israel deal, Abdullah may attempt to position Jordan as a key player in broader regional diplomacy. New York Times

Arab states reject Trump's Gaza proposal, Egypt tells White House’s Rubio. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza and have Washington take control of the devastating enclave. In a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday, Abdelatty emphasized the need to rebuild Gaza while ensuring that Palestinians remain there. The U.S. State Department did not explicitly address Trump’s plan but stressed that Hamas must not govern Gaza or pose a threat to Israel again. Arab states and Palestinian leaders have firmly opposed any forced displacement, calling it a violation of Palestinian rights and labeling the proposal as ethnic cleansing. Abdelatty, who also met separately with U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, underscored his commitment to cooperating with the U.S. to secure "comprehensive and just peace and stability.”  Reuters

U.N. forced to pause humanitarian work in Houthi-controlled Yemeni province following more staff detentions. The United Nations has suspended humanitarian operations in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Saada province after the rebels detained eight more U.N. staffers in recent weeks. The decision was made due to security concerns and the lack of necessary guarantees for aid workers. The Houthis have detained dozens of U.N. personnel, aid workers, and civil society members in recent months, with none of the U.N. staffers being released. The suspension aims to pressure the Houthis into freeing the detainees and ensuring safe conditions for humanitarian work. The war in Yemen, ongoing since 2014, has killed over 150,000 people and displaced millions. The U.N. estimates that over 19 million Yemenis will require aid this year due to malnutrition, disease, and the economic toll of conflict. The Houthis have also intensified their crackdown on dissent, recently sentencing 44 people to death. While the rebels recently released 153 war detainees as part of efforts to ease tensions, their continued detention of U.N. personnel threatens critical humanitarian aid efforts in Yemen. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Trump says he has spoken to Chinese leader Xi Jinping since being sworn in.President Donald Trump confirmed that he has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping since his inauguration on January 20, but did not provide details on the conversation. In an interview with Fox News, Trump emphasized his good personal relationship with Xi, saying, “I happen to like him a lot,” though he has previously stated that he was in no rush to engage in discussions to ease the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. The White House did not comment on the call, while the Chinese foreign ministry only referenced a previously scheduled January 17 conversation between the two leaders. Tensions between Washington and Beijing remain high, with ongoing disputes over trade tariffs, cybersecurity, Taiwan, Hong Kong, human rights, and COVID-19 origins. Reuters The Hill 

China insists visit by Cook Islands’ PM isn’t intended to stir up South Pacific tensions.China has defended the upcoming visit of Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown to Beijing, denying that it is part of an effort to undermine regional powers like New Zealand, Australia, or the U.S. However, the visit has sparked tensions with New Zealand, the Cook Islands’ main benefactor, which expressed concerns over the “lack of consultation” regarding agreements Brown plans to sign with China. Beijing has been expanding its influence in the South Pacific, using economic and diplomatic leverage to strengthen ties with small island nations, which some critics view as an attempt to diminish Western influence and gain access to natural resources and prime fisheries. While Brown insists the agreements with China do not involve security matters, they will cover renewable energy, agriculture, maritime issues, shipping, and seabed minerals development—topics of concern for Wellington, Canberra, and Washington. The lack of transparency has deepened fears that the Asian giant may be pursuing security-related agreements similar to its controversial pact with the Solomon Islands, which raised alarm over the potential for Chinese military presence in the strategically important Pacific region. Associated PressThe GuardianAl Jazeera   

Chinese scientists claim stratospheric airship can detect U.S. F-35 fighter from nearly 2,000 km. Chinese researchers have reportedly developed a stratospheric airship equipped with advanced infrared detection systems capable of identifying stealth aircraft, including the U.S. F-35, from nearly 2,000 km (1,240 miles) away. This advancement highlights a potential vulnerability in U.S. fifth-generation stealth technology and represents a significant advancement in China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities. The study, conducted by researchers at the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics, and Physics, analyzed the infrared signature of F-35s in simulated combat scenarios involving Taiwan. While the jet’s radar-absorbing exterior effectively masks it from traditional detection methods, its engine exhaust emits infrared radiation strong enough to be detected by sensors. The airship, hovering at 20 km altitude, can track an F-35’s rear thermal signature from as far as 1,800 km, though detection from the front is more limited at 350 km. To overcome blind spots, researchers suggest using a network of airships working together, potentially forming a hexagonal grid or employing swarm tactics with thousands of smaller airships. These airships could hover for months, providing continuous monitoring. South China Morning Post 

‘Normal’ first summit between Japan’s Ishiba and Trump deemed a success. The first summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was largely seen as successful, with both leaders reaffirming strong security ties. Trump endorsed Japan’s plan to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, easing concerns that he would demand a more immediate increase. While trade tensions linger, with Trump pushing to reduce the $68 billion U.S. trade deficit, tariffs were not explicitly addressed. Instead, Trump encouraged Japanese investment in American energy and technology. The meeting signaled continuity in U.S.-Japan relations, though Japan remains cautious about potential economic pressure in future negotiations.  South China Morning Post 

North Korea denounces presence of U.S. nuclear submarine at Busan port.Pyongyang has condemned the U.S. deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine to South Korea, calling it a “dangerous hostile military act” and warning that its military is ready to take action if provoked. A spokesperson from North Korea’s defense ministry described the presence of the American submarine as a severe security threat that could escalate tensions into an armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The USS Alexandria, a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, docked at Busan port in South Korea for resupply and crew rest on Monday. South Korea’s defense ministry downplayed the North's response, emphasizing that the visit was an opportunity for naval cooperation between the two allies. North Korea has long criticized U.S. military activities in the region, particularly joint military drills with Seoul. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s hints at possible direct talks with Kim Jong Un, North Korea has escalated its rhetoric rather than signaling a willingness to engage in diplomacy. Reuters

ACCI warns Australia to take heed amid in U.S.-China rivalry.Australia must carefully balance its economic ties with China, its largest trading partner, and the U.S., its key ally and top investor, as tensions between the two global powers escalate. Andrew McKellar, head of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), warned that rising trade disputes could disrupt the rules-based order and create a more hostile trade environment. With the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and China retaliating with import duties, Australia risks becoming collateral damage in the conflict. Canberra has already faced punitive trade measures from Beijing in the past and only recently saw the last of these lifted. Now, it must navigate relations not only with China’s Communist government but also with President Donald Trump’s unpredictable administration while maintaining stability in its trade partnerships. Bloomberg 

Indian official says nation is not likely to remove ban on Chinese investments soon.India is unlikely to lift its ban on Chinese investments in the near future, according to Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, who emphasized that both nations need to recognize their “mutual dependence and benefits.” Speaking in Mumbai on Tuesday, he stated that changes to India’s policy on Chinese investments would take time, as both sides are proceeding cautiously in their economic relations. Since 2020, India has tightened restrictions on Chinese investments amid heightened tensions, particularly after border clashes in the Himalayas that resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. Despite these strained relations, New Delhi has initiated discussions with Beijing regarding its growing trade deficit, which currently stands at $93 billion to $95 billion, making India one of the top three countries with the largest trade imbalance with China. Reuters  

AFRICA

China builds space alliances in Africa as the US cuts foreign aid. China is expanding its space partnerships in Africa, securing 23 bilateral agreements and establishing facilities that enhance its surveillance capabilities. In Egypt, a satellite plant promoted as homegrown relies heavily on Chinese technology and expertise. Beijing has launched three satellites for Egypt, including a military-grade one, and maintains long-term personnel at its facilities. China’s investments extend to powerful telescopes and ground stations, supporting its broader goal of space dominance. The space equipment that Beijing is placing in developing countries is helping China create a “global surveillance network,” said Nicholas Eftimiades, a former U.S. intelligence officer and expert on Chinese espionage operations. “China has democratized space to enhance its authoritarian capabilities … and it’s doing so very effectively.” Meanwhile, the U.S. is reducing foreign aid under President Donald Trump, with private firms like SpaceX leading Washington’s space efforts. The Pentagon warns that China’s presence in Africa strengthens its intelligence capabilities, but African nations see tangible benefits. China positions itself as a technological benefactor while securing access to satellite data. The global space race increasingly hinges on strategic alliances, with the U.S. focusing on military space power while China deepens its influence through investment and technology transfers in developing regions. Reuters

Could the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency in Congo’s restive east expand into a regional war?  As Rwanda-backed M23 rebels continue their devastating offensive in eastern Congo, analysts warn that this escalating conflict risks expanding into a broader regional war. The rebels, who captured Goma last month and are advancing toward Bukavu, have not failed to draw serious concern from neighboring countries. However, a recent summit of regional leaders failed to produce a concrete plan beyond calling for a ceasefire. This conflict, on the verge of boiling over, stems from long standing tensions and a history of bloodshed. Rwanda supports M23 due to its concerns over supposedly anti-Rwandan rebel groups in eastern Congo, and Uganda and Burundi, both with troops in the region, also have vested interests, adding complexity to peace efforts. With Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Rwandan President Paul Kagame very much determined to secure influence in Congo’s mineral-rich east, the threat of escalation is even higher. Burundi has even accused Rwanda of expansionist ambitions, with its President Evariste Ndayishimiye warning of warmongering, further heightening tensions. Efforts to end the violence have largely failed, as Congo refuses to negotiate with M23 and has dismissed Rwanda’s justification for supporting the rebels. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with no clear path forward to resolving the crisis. Associated Press 

As rebels advance, a trial begins for 84 Congolese troops on charges of murder, rape and other crimes against civilians. A trial began on Monday for 84 Congolese soldiers accused of crimes against civilians, including murder and rape, in the conflict-ridden east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The soldiers allegedly attacked homes in South Kivu’s Kabare and Kalehe territories, killing at least 12 people and assaulting multiple women. Lawyers for the victims are seeking the death penalty. One witness said he was preparing to flee his village from approaching insurgents when soldiers, charged with protecting civilian populations, beat and robbed him. The trial takes place amid escalating violence, with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels making significant gains in eastern Congo, including capturing Goma. The U.N. Human Rights Council has launched an inquiry into human rights abuses committed by both the Congolese army and M23 rebels since January, including rapes and executions. The ongoing conflict has resulted in over 3,000 deaths and widespread displacement. Associated Press

South African military deploys reinforcements to hard-hit Congo mission. According to diplomatic and political sources, South Africa has deployed additional troops and military supplies to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite the fact that 14 of its soldiers were killed in clashes with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels last month. The reinforcements, estimated at 700-800 soldiers, were flown to Lubumbashi, in the Congo’s south, amid concerns that escalating violence in the nation’s turbulent east could trigger a broader regional conflict. South Africa already has around 3,000 troops in the DRC, participating in both a U.N. peacekeeping mission and a Southern African regional force supporting the Congolese army against the M23 insurgency. However, the intervention has faced criticism at home due to logistical challenges, poor resourcing, and the isolation of South African troops in Goma, where the rebels control the airport. Recent flight data examined by Reuters confirms multiple military cargo flights from South Africa to Lubumbashi, carrying supplies such as medicine and ammunition. Analysts suggest these movements indicate the formation of a contingency force. Meanwhile, Uganda and Burundi are also reinforcing their positions, while Rwanda continues to deny allegations of supporting M23. Reuters

Sudan’s RSF hindering aid from entering famine-struck Darfur, warns U.N. The civil war in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the military is exacerbating a severe humanitarian crisis, particularly in famine-stricken Darfur. The RSF, which controls much of the region, is blocking “life-saving assistance,” imposing restrictions, and interfering with relief efforts, according to the U.N.'s top humanitarian official in Sudan, Clementine Nkweta-Salami. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, over 28,000 people have been killed, and more than 14 million—30% of the population—have been displaced, with millions fleeing to neighboring countries. Famine has been detected in multiple areas, including three camps for displaced people in Darfur, and is expected to spread further. The war has been marked by brutal ethnic violence, with the U.N. and rights groups reporting atrocities including mass killings and rape. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is investigating possible war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Biden administration previously determined that the RSF and its proxies are committing genocide, echoing the atrocities of 20 years ago when Darfur became associated with genocide and war crimes. Associated Press 

Insecurity caused by Red Sea Houthi attacks could be fueling a rise in Somali piracy. Suspected Somali pirates have hijacked a Yemeni fishing boat near Somalia's Eyl coast, authorities reported on Monday. The European naval force EUNAVFOR Atalanta is investigating the incident, which saw the attackers steal three small boats with powerful engines. Piracy off Somalia had declined since its peak in 2011, when 237 attacks cost the global economy $7 billion, but has seen a recent resurgence. The renewed activity is partly linked to regional instability engendered by Yemen’s Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea. According to the International Maritime Bureau, there were seven reported piracy incidents off Somalia last year. Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Musk’s $97.4 Billion OpenAI Bid Piles Pressure on Altman. Elon Musk and his consortium have made a $97.4 billion bid for the nonprofit controlling OpenAI, challenging Sam Altman’s plan to convert the AI company into a for-profit entity. Musk argues the nonprofit should be fairly compensated, while OpenAI maintains it has no obligation to sell. The bid could complicate Altman’s efforts to balance investor interests, including Microsoft’s stake and an ongoing $40 billion capital raise. Altman swiftly rejected Musk’s offer, calling it a distraction. Legal hurdles remain, as regulators in California and Delaware must approve OpenAI’s transition. The bid intensifies the long-running rivalry between Musk and Altman, who co-founded OpenAI in 2015 before Musk left in 2018. Musk, now leading competitor xAI, also sued OpenAI, claiming it abandoned its original mission. Meanwhile, OpenAI is pushing ahead with a $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative, backed by SoftBank and other investors, amid increasing pressure from Musk’s unexpected challenge. Wall Street Journal

China’s Xi is Building an Economic Fortress Against U.S. Pressure. China is intensifying efforts to reduce reliance on foreign technology as U.S. tensions rise, pouring billions into high-end manufacturing under Xi Jinping’s self-sufficiency drive. The country has made strides in electric vehicles, AI, shipbuilding, and chemicals, but faces setbacks in semiconductors and aerospace. Western export controls have hampered China’s access to advanced chip-making tools, forcing domestic firms to find alternatives. Meanwhile, massive state subsidies have led to inefficiencies and trade tensions as Chinese exports flood global markets. While state-led efforts dominate, some argue loosening control over the private sector could spur innovation without the downsides of government-driven investment. Wall Street Journal

Vance warns Europeans that heavy regulation could kill AI. U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned in Paris on Tuesday that Europe's AI regulations risk stifling innovation, calling content moderation "authoritarian censorship." He emphasized that the Trump administration will ensure U.S. leadership in AI while opposing the European Union’s strict approach. Vance criticized General Data Protection Regulation for burdening small firms with legal costs and cautioned against regulations favoring tech giants. The summit, attended by officials from nearly 100 countries, highlights growing geopolitical competition over AI, with diverging strategies in the U.S., China, and Europe. Reuters

Paris AI summit emphasizes economic, research goals through continued development.  The AI Action Summit that opened in Paris on Monday featured a broader agenda than those of previous AI summits in Britain and South Korea, which focused on safety.  The Paris gathering of government and technology leaders is assessing the technology’s economic and social impacts, including its use in the developing world and humanitarian and privacy concerns.  A draft communique reported by Reuters endorsed an “inclusive approach” to AI that reflects the multiple stakeholders affected by the technology’s development.  Vice President J.D. Vance will present the U.S. perspective in a speech to the summit on Tuesday.  In advance of the summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed support for less regulation on AI, noting "if we want growth, jobs and progress, we must allow innovators to innovate, builders to build and developers to develop.”  Other participants in the summit urged caution on AI development.  Brian Chen, policy director at the U.S. nonprofit Data & Society, said "what I worry about is that... there will be pressures from the U.S. and elsewhere to weaken the EU's AI Act and weaken those existing protections.”  Stanford AI researcher Fei-Fei Li, referred to as the “godmother” of AI, gave the opening address at the conference in which she supported both oversight and continued innovation in the technology.  In supporting a “more scientific method in assessing and measuring AI’s capability and limitations,” Fei-Fei said that “it’s essential that we govern on the basis of science, not science fiction.”  She called for an approach that does not block research into AI, but one that emphasizes “the practical applications so that we can ensure its benevolent usage to guard against harmful outcomes.”  A heads-of-government meeting on Tuesday will include Vance, summit co-hosts President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.  In addition, leading tech firm CEO’s such as Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will give talks during the summit.  Reuters   Cybernews   TechCrunch   TechCrunch

EU pledges $200 billion in AI spending in a bid to catch up with the U.S. and China. The European Union has pledged €200 billion ($206.15 billion) to boost its artificial intelligence sector, aiming to compete with the U.S. and China. Announced at the AI Action Summit in Paris, the InvestAI plan includes a €20 billion fund for AI gigafactories, infrastructure critical for training advanced models. The move follows the U.S.-backed Stargate initiative, a $500 billion AI infrastructure project led by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Nvidia. The EU has lagged in AI investment since OpenAI’s 2022 ChatGPT breakthrough, and this initiative seeks to position the bloc as a major player in AI development and infrastructure. Wall Street Journal

Macron announces $112 billion AI private sector investment to fuel competitiveness.  On the eve of the Paris AI summit, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a $112 billion private investment program, which he noted is the French equivalent of the U.S. Stargate AI initiative announced recently.  Referring to the global competition in the technology, Macron said “Europe is going to speed up, France is going to speed up.”  Macron added that the initiative will unfold “over the next few years” and will concentrate on new AI-focused data centers.  According to TechCrunch, the private sector backers of the program include the United Arab Emirates, the Canadian Brookfield investment firm, the Bpifrance national investment bank, and Iliad, a French telecommunications company.  Macron mentioned that the mobile network operator Orange and digital security firm Thale also will participate in the program.  Macron pointed to France’s energy sector as a distinct advantage in AI development, with the “most decarbonized, controllable and safe electricity in the world.  We have the safest and most stable grid. And we export this low-carbon electricity.”  Meanwhile, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch announced an investment of “several billion euros” in an AI cluster to be used to “train even more efficient systems” over a short period.  For its part, the E.U. reportedly is planning sizable AI investments, with technology vice-president Henna Virkkunen announcing a $1.5 billion outlay for seven AI-optimized supercomputers to be used by European startups in training new AI models.  TechCrunch   Cybernews   Politico   Bloomberg   Reuters

Mistral, Helsing announce partnership to develop AI-enabled military systems.  Two leading European technology firms, Helising and Mistral AI, have announced plans to jointly develop AI applications for the military.  Helsing, which specializes in AI’s integration into defense systems, and Mistral, an LLM developer, will use their respective strengths to support collaboration of military units on the battlefield.  The companies’ focus will be on vision-language-action models which enable defense platforms to comprehend complex environments and accelerate command decision-making.  Helsing AI vice president Antoine Bordes noted that “robotics and AI will revolutionize how defense operations are conducted — improving efficiency, reducing risks and enabling rapid decision-making in high-stakes environments.”  Helsing, a German British firm, has developed software for drones and other military systems, including Eurofighter jets.  The Mistral startup, whose products compete with ChatGPT and other AI models, has been tapped by the French defense ministry as a provider of AI software.  Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg

Russia dramatically shrinking internet-facing infrastructure to boost cybersecurity.  Russia is closing off its internet-facing infrastructure from the rest of the world, with two-thirds of its previously discoverable service now isolated behind the country’s “Great Firewall.”  Access to Russian systems and devices is now smaller than Romania or Sweden.  Prior to last October, there were 920,000 internet-facing devices in Russia, including routers, email servers, VPN’s and other connected hardware.  According to the ShadowServer Foundation, half of those devices have since disappeared.  These trends, according to the Cybernews research team, can be attributed to Moscow’s goal of tightening control over internet infrastructure, restricting access to foreign outlets, and testing of Russia’s “sovereign internet.”  Cybernews reports that “Russia is experimenting with their own internal internet infrastructure, and disconnecting various regions, particularly ones with higher amounts of minorities, from the worldwide internet.”  Russia also may be motivated by cybersecurity concerns, which under Western sanctions have grown because of the difficulty in replacing or updating aging public-facing networks and devices.  Sonu Shankar, chief product officer at Phosphorus Cybersecurity, explained that “while multiple factors may be influencing this trend, the most probable explanation given the known offensive cyber operations in the region is the deliberate reduction of their attack surface.”  Of the Russian devices still observable on the global internet, most are routers ((25 percent) followed by email servers (20 percent), VPN’s (6 percent), and web panels and load balancers (5 percent each).  Shankar said that the trend in Russian internet connectivity could serve as a reminder to the West regarding cyber hygiene:  “To mitigate risks, organizations should restrict unnecessary internet exposure, enforce strong authentication practices at the device level by ensuring default or weak passwords are changed, and eliminate device misconfigurations that could be remotely exploited by threat actors.”  Cybernews

South Korea warns of DeepSeek data collection practices amid other security concerns. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) assesses that the Chinese DeepSeek AI app collects “excessive” amounts of personal data and incorporates input data to further train its AI models.  DeepSeek differs from other generative AI services, the NIS said, in its practice of collecting “keyboard input patterns that can identify individuals and communicate with Chinese companies' servers such as volceapplog.com."  Some South Korean ministries have banned internal use of the DeepSeek app.  Other Western researchers have raised concerns about DeepSeek’s susceptibility to “jailbreaking,” or duping the model into giving potentially dangerous or sensitive responses.  Palo Alto Networks said DeepSeek’s R1 model was vulnerable to three jailbreaking techniques that essentially render the model defenseless against anyone trying to control them.  Other security concerns have impacted DeepSeek, including a massive Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack last month that shut down the company’s official website for 48 hours, affecting global customers and partners and resulting in tens of millions of dollars in losses.  According to Cybernews, official API services have not fully recovered and some internationals are still unable to register.  Reuters   Cybernews   Semafor   TechCrunch

OpenAI CEO projects falling cost of AI development, ‘huge’ impacts of future AI use.  In a new blog post, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has expressed interest in a "compute budget" concept that would allow everyone on Earth to use AI and ensure its benefits are widely distributed. Regarding artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems, Altman believes they will be realized in the foreseeable future, but that they will require human oversight and direction.  Altman also notes that the cost to use "a given level of AI" falls about 10 times every 12 months, meaning users will gain access to increasingly capable systems. Training and development costs are also coming down, but Altman believes massive investments still will be required to achieve AGI-level AI.  Regarding OpenAI’s plans to release AGI systems, Altman said that the company will be compelled to make “some major decisions and limitations related to AGI safety that will be unpopular.”  Altman also said that in its development of proprietary AI systems, OpenAI has been on the wrong side of history in not endorsing open source.  As AI is integrated in all areas of the economy and society, people will need more control over the technology, including open-sourcing and accepting a balance and trade-offs between safety and individual empowerment.  TechCrunch  Cybernews

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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