Report for Tuesday, August 20, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Blinken says Israel agrees to “bridge” deal. Hamas holds out

Kyiv didn't disclose Kursk operation because of West's fear of Russian 'red lines'

U.S. security agencies denounce Iran’s ‘aggressive’ plays to disrupt U.S campaigns

Flaws in Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ tactics are beginning to reveal themselves

New round of Chinese drone export controls aims at curbing foreign dual-use sales

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

America’s National Security Wake-Up Call  The Cipher Brief

How Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Shifts the BalanceThe Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Blinken says Israel agrees to “bridge” deal. Hamas holds out. Israel has accepted a Biden administration proposal to bridge remaining differences with Hamas on a cease-fire deal, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken announced Monday after a nearly three-hour meeting in Jerusalem with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “It’s now incumbent on Hamas to do the same,” Blinken said. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that the meeting with Blinken had been “positive.” Hamas was cooler to the deal on the table. .  In an interview with Al Jazeera Monday, Osama Hamdan of Hamas said that Israeli officials had not conceded anything during last week’s talks in Doha. "When Blinken says that the Israelis agreed and then the Israelis say that there is an updated proposal, this means that the Americans are subject to Israeli pressure and not the other way around. We believe that it is a maneuver that gives the Israelis more time," Hamdan told Reuters. Major sticking points: Netanyahu wants Israeli troops to patrol the Gazan side of the territory’s border with Egypt to prevent Hamas from rearming during a cease-fire. Hamas has said it won’t agree to a deal if Israeli troops don’t withdraw completely from Gaza. Also, differences remain on how many and which Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged for hostages.  New York Times  Reuters

IDF retrieves bodies of six hostages held in Gaza. The Israeli military recovered the bodies of six hostages from southern Gaza’s Khan Younis overnight, as reported by the military and the prime minister's office on Tuesday. The families of the victims—Yagev Buchshtab, Alexander Dancyg, Avraham Munder, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell, and Chaim Perry—have been informed. All of the men except Mr. Munder were already known to have died. The Hostages Families Forum acknowledged the recovery but urged the Israeli government to finalize a hostage release deal with Hamas to secure the return of the remaining 109 hostages. Reuters New York Times Haaretz The Straits Times 

Israeli strikes kills Palestinian mother, all of her 6 children. Hala Khattab, a 36-year-old teacher in Gaza, and her six children, including 9-year-old quadruplets, were killed early on Sunday when an Israeli airstrike demolished their apartment in Deir al-Balah. The strike, which occurred without any prior evacuation order, also left the children's father, Ashraf Attar, severely injured. The Israeli military confirmed that the strike targeted a significant Islamic Jihad terrorist, though it did not clarify if the target was in the Khattab family's apartment. The tragedy highlights the devastating toll the ongoing conflict has taken on civilians, particularly children, in the Palestinian enclave. The airstrike occurred just before a crucial meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed at negotiating a ceasefire. New York Times 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Strikes Bridges in Russia, Aiming to Entrap Troops. Ukrainian forces targeted and struck three bridges in Russia's Kursk region, aiming to cut off vital resupply and retreat routes for Russian troops trapped between the Seym River and the Ukraine border. The strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian offensive that began on August 6, during which Ukrainian troops quickly broke through Russian defenses, capturing towns and villages as they advanced deeper into Russian territory. The destruction of these bridges raises the risk of Russian forces becoming encircled, potentially forcing them to withdraw. This strategy is designed to create a natural barrier against Russian counterattacks by using the river, while also putting pressure on Russian military operations. Although the Ukrainian incursion has boosted morale and introduced new challenges for the Kremlin, the overall strategic outcome of these actions remains uncertain. New York Times  Reuters 

Zelensky Jabs at Allies Keeping Limits on Strikes Inside Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday urged Ukraine's allies to lift restrictions on using their weapons for strikes inside Russia, arguing that his army's recent incursion into Russian territory has undermined Vladimir Putin's threats of retaliation. Ukrainian forces now control over 1,250 square kilometers in Russia's Kursk region and plan to expand further. Zelensky emphasized that if Western partners allowed strikes on deeper Russian targets, such as airfields and military bases, Kyiv wouldn't have needed to enter Kursk to protect its border communities. Despite initial concerns from allies about escalation, the success of Ukraine's operation has revealed that Russia's "red lines" are illusory. Russia, meanwhile, continues to advance slowly in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region and launches attacks from the Kursk and Belgorod regions against Ukrainian cities. The operation, the first foreign offensive inside Russia since World War II, has displaced around 200,000 Russians and put the Kremlin on the defensive. Bloomberg  Reuters 

Zelensky calls out US, UK, France over slow weapons deliveries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the U.S., U.K., and France to accelerate weapons deliveries, as Ukraine struggles to counter Russia's assault in the Donetsk region. Despite gains inside Russia, Ukrainian forces are being pushed back near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar, with Russian troops making advances. While Ukraine has seen success across the border in Russia, including the destruction of key infrastructure in the Kursk region, the situation in eastern Ukraine remains critical, prompting local authorities to initiate evacuations. PoliticoEU

India's Modi to visit Ukraine on Aug. 23, weeks after rebuking Putin. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on August 23, marking the first visit by an Indian leader to Ukraine in over 30 years. The visit follows Modi's recent trip to Moscow, where he implicitly rebuked Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine, particularly after a deadly strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv coincided with his visit. The Indian government emphasized that Modi's trip to Ukraine is not a balancing act between Russia and Ukraine but part of India's independent and substantive ties with both nations. The visit aims to strengthen bilateral relations in various sectors, including economics, agriculture, health, and defense. Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to discuss the war and potential peace efforts, with India reiterating its readiness to support a negotiated settlement acceptable to both parties. Reuters CNN Bloomberg 

ANALYSIS–In Russia, Ukraine’s Invasion Pops Putin’s Bubbles. Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region has shattered several myths about Vladimir Putin's regime and Russian society. Despite years of propaganda framing Ukraine as an existential threat, the Russian public has responded with indifference rather than nationalist fervor. This indifference undermines the Kremlin's longstanding narrative of external threats necessitating authoritarian control. Additionally, Putin's failure to protect Russian territory and his retreat from public view expose his weakening grip on power and challenge his image as a strong leader. The invasion also discredits the idea that Russia’s war efforts are widely supported or that Putin's threats, including nuclear ones, are credible. Finally, it reveals that the West may have overestimated Russia's resolve, as Ukraine’s actions show the Kremlin's red lines are not as firm as previously believed. Foreign Policy 

What is G7's plan for financial aid to Ukraine? The G7 nations plan to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in loans using proceeds from frozen Russian assets to ensure continued support against Russia's invasion. This initiative is partly a safeguard against potential changes in U.S. policy if Donald Trump returns to power. The loans, backed by interest from the frozen assets, will be repaid either through this interest or Russian reparations. The plan, still under discussion, involves contributions from G7 members and the EU, with funds expected to start flowing by the end of 2024. Russia has condemned the asset seizure as "theft." Reuters

Ukraine air defenses down 3 missiles, 25 drones fired by Russia, Ukrainian air force says. Ukraine's air defenses shot down three missiles, and 25 drones fired by Russia in an overnight attack on Tuesday, the Ukrainian air force said. It said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app that the attack targeted nine Ukrainian regions in the center, north and south of the country. Reuters 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 22 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day resulted in at least five civilian deaths and 22 injuries, including a child, authorities said on Tuesday. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 25 drones and several missiles. The deadliest incidents occurred in Donetsk Oblast, where five people were killed and multiple others injured. Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts also saw significant injuries from strikes. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian artillery caused additional casualties. A missile strike in Sumy Oblast damaged energy facilities, leaving 72 settlements without power. Meanwhile, a fire in Ternopil, caused by an attack on a fuel warehouse, was contained without casualties. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks on Toretsk, Zarichne in Donetsk Oblast kill 4. On Monday, Russian attacks on Toretsk and Zarichne in Donetsk Oblast killed four civilians. In Toretsk, artillery fire killed a 71-year-old woman, while an attack on Zarichne claimed the lives of three adults. Both Toretsk and Zarichne are front-line settlements frequently targeted by Russian forces. Kyiv Independent  

Russian forces capture town of Zalizne in Ukraine's east, defense ministry says. Russia's Defense Ministry on Monday announced the capture of Zalizne, a town in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, as its forces advance towards the nearby city of Toretsk. Zalizne, with a pre-war population of 5,000, is strategically important as it adjoins Toretsk, a key Ukrainian stronghold in the Donbas region. Russia's offensive is progressing steadily towards Toretsk and Pokrovsk, despite Ukrainian counterattacks in Russia's Kursk region. Reuters

Ukraine official says civilians have 'week or two' to evacuate key hub Pokrovsk. Civilians in Ukraine's strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk have up to two weeks to evacuate as Russian forces advance, while those in nearby Myrnohrad have only days, according to local officials. The Pokrovsk front, where fighting is most intense, has seen numerous clashes. Russian troops are now just over 10 kilometers from Pokrovsk's outskirts, prompting urgent calls for evacuation. Around 53,000 people, including 4,000 children, remain in Pokrovsk and surrounding areas. Myrnohrad, less than five kilometers from Pokrovsk, has been under artillery fire and faces imminent danger, with active fighting occurring just six kilometers away. Forced evacuations of families with children have begun as the situation deteriorates rapidly. Reuters Washington Post  Associated Press 

Kyiv didn't disclose Kursk operation because of West's fear of Russian 'red lines'. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Kyiv kept preparations for the Kursk operation secret from its Western allies to avoid triggering concerns over crossing Russia's "red lines." The operation, now two weeks in, has seen Ukrainian forces control over 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory. Zelensky emphasized that the success of this operation challenges the notion of inviolable Russian "red lines," urging Western partners to align with Ukraine's resolve. The incursion aims to protect Ukraine by diverting Russian forces, not to occupy Russian land. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Says Its Incursion Will Bring Peace. Putin’s Plans May Differ. Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region aims to gain leverage for future peace talks, as President Volodymyr Zelensky balances military actions with diplomatic efforts. While Zelensky seeks to use territorial gains as bargaining chips, Russia’s response suggests an escalation rather than negotiations. Vladimir Putin’s focus appears to be on revenge and continuing the war, with Moscow delaying talks on energy security in response to Ukraine’s actions. Despite increasing Ukrainian pressure, Putin remains committed to achieving victory at any cost. “It’s very hard to imagine peace in our era unless Russia loses,” Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament, said. Ukraine’s counterattack into Russia will hasten talks, he said, by raising the cost of war on Russia. New York Times 

Russia Hunts Down Deserters to Backfill Its Massive War Losses. Russia is aggressively pursuing soldiers who have deserted the war in Ukraine, either to prosecute or redeploy them. The country faces a severe manpower shortage after extensive casualties, estimated at over 500,000, and is struggling to maintain its military force. Deserters are tracked down, often through threats to their families, and faced with harsh penalties including up to 15 years in prison. Some are offered leniency in exchange for returning to fight. The Russian government has even extended this crackdown beyond its borders, capturing deserters in countries like Armenia and Kazakhstan, to reinforce its dwindling forces. Wall Street Journal 

Nearly 1 million people temporarily exempted from military service, Defense Ministry says. Approximately 930,000 Ukrainians eligible for military service have been temporarily exempted, potentially reaching one million soon, according to Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk. Despite legal updates to boost mobilization, Ukraine's army still faces shortages as newly mobilized soldiers require 3-6 months of training. Meanwhile, Russia has increased its military presence in occupied Ukrainian territories, with troop numbers rising from 440,000 to around 600,000, and possibly reaching 800,000 by the end of the year. To address manpower needs, Russian President Vladimir Putin has doubled the sign-on bonus for new recruits serving in Ukraine to over $4,600. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine may join NATO despite being partially occupied by Russia, Czech president says. Czech President Petr Pavel stated that Ukraine's NATO membership should not be contingent on regaining full control over all its territory, including areas occupied by Russia. Pavel suggested that NATO could accept Ukraine based on the territory it controls at the time of accession, citing Germany's NATO membership despite Soviet occupation of part of its territory. He believes a solution exists to allow Ukraine's membership without involving NATO in conflict with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, has expressed concerns, calling partial accession signals "nonsense" and potentially risky. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–Ukraine on the Offensive. Ukraine's surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk region challenges earlier perceptions of a stalemate in the war. This operation, launched on August 6, demonstrates Kyiv's capability to execute large-scale, secretive military maneuvers despite intense surveillance. Strategically, it aims to disrupt Russian artillery attacks and force Moscow to redeploy troops from critical fronts. Politically, the offensive strengthens Ukraine's position in negotiations and counters Western doubts about its resilience. Concurrently, the successful defense of Kharkiv highlights Ukraine's ability to repel major Russian offensives, further shifting the war's dynamics. This approach seeks to exhaust Russian resources, hindering Putin’s war economy to Ukraine's long-term advantage. Foreign Affairs  

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Monday, August 19, 2024. Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in Kursk Oblast on Monday. Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov exacerbated tensions by calling for conscripts to engage in combat in Kursk Oblast and dismissing concerns from their families. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Azerbaijan on Sunday, likely to divert attention from the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and reinforce his diplomatic image. The Kremlin's reaction to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast highlights its focus on regime stability, increasingly relying on trusted security officials. Russian officials continue to blame Ukraine for the lack of negotiations to end the war. Conscription has resumed in several Russian federal subjects, including Sakhalin Oblast, after a long hiatus.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Putin is paralyzed in crisis – again. Jamie Dettmer argues that Russia's delayed response to Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region may be due to Vladimir Putin's characteristic paralysis in crises, a pattern observed in previous emergencies. Ukrainian officials, expecting a stronger pushback, are left wondering if this delay is due to strategic planning by Aleksei Dyumin, a capable military leader, or if it's another instance of Putin's indecisiveness. Ukraine now faces critical choices: hold, withdraw, or expand its position, with the risk of encirclement by Russian forces. PoliticoEU

Opinion: The EU should help Ukrainian refugees return home. Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Gros argue that instead of continuing to fund social support for Ukrainian refugees in European Union countries, the focus should shift to creating employment opportunities for them in Ukraine, particularly in the western regions. This approach would help strengthen Ukraine's labor market, support the country's economic recovery, and reduce the long-term population decline caused by the war – which could see the nation’s population plummet to 31 million by 2035 from 40 million before the war. They suggest reallocating EU funds to support re-entry programs that encourage refugees to return and work in Ukraine, thereby attracting European investments and aiding Ukraine's integration into the European economy. Euromaidan Press 

AMERICAS

U.S. security agencies denounce Iran’s ‘aggressive’ plays to disrupt U.S campaigns.  U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials said Monday they are confident that Iran used cyber tools to penetrate Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.  The Office of Director of National Intelligence, Federal Bureau of Investigation and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency described the Trump hack as part of Tehran’s larger efforts to meddle in U.S. politics.  They believe Iran also tried to hack into the presidential campaign of Kamala Harris.  They cited “increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting Presidential campaigns.”  Iran’s mission to the United Nations denied the allegations.   The agencies said, “the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the Presidential campaigns of both political parties.” In a separate report, Google said a group linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has tried to infiltrate the personal email accounts of roughly a dozen people linked to President Joe Biden and Trump since May.  Bloomberg  Reuters  Joint Statement by USG

Riot police deployed as some protesters crash through fencing at DNC perimeter. On the opening day of the Democratic National Convention, thousands of protesters gathered in Chicago to demand a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with some breaching a security fence near the convention site. The majority of protesters, including families and students, marched peacefully, but a small group broke away and tore down sections of the fence. Police detained several individuals but managed to control the situation without using force. Despite the disruption, the inner security perimeter remained secure, and the convention activities continued as planned. Reuters Associated Press 

US-backed, Kenyan-led mission in Haiti finds handling gang violence a challenge. The international peacekeeping force in Haiti, led by Kenya and supported by the U.S., has faced significant challenges in combating armed and violent gangs, struggling to achieve its objectives nearly two months into the mission. The force, made up of 400 soldiers and known as the Multinational Security Support (MSS), has been unable to make substantial progress in clearing gangs from the capital, Port-au-Prince, and has been dealt major setbacks in the few clashes that have occurred. The mission is underfunded and lacks sufficient resources, prompting calls for increased international support, particularly from the U.S.  Although the U.S. has provided significant funding and equipment, such as armored vehicles and protective gear, the mission's success remains uncertain. Experts suggest that the MSS needs more troops, better equipment, less corruption, and stronger support from the Haitian government to succeed. The ongoing violence and instability have exacerbated the nation’s humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement, food insecurity, and a rising threat of diseases like cholera. The situation remains dire, and without substantial international intervention, Haiti risks further collapse. The Hill 

Protesters in Haiti tear-gassed by police as they demand help in dismantling gangs. Hundreds of protesters were tear-gassed by Haitian police on Monday after they flooded the streets of the capital, Port-au-Prince, to demand protection from the powerful gangs that have violently taken control of their neighborhoods. The protesters, frustrated by the government's failure to curb gang violence, burned tires in anger. Residents expressed their fear, frustration, and feelings of abandonment by authorities as gang violence continues unchecked. Despite recent efforts, including the arrival of 400 Kenyan police officers as part of a UN-backed mission, the situation remains dire. The protest, which aimed to draw attention to the residents' plight, ended instead with pain, as demonstrators were tear-gassed and left feeling more disillusioned with the lack of effective action from both the Haitian government and the international community. Associated Press

Panama to start US-financed migrant repatriation flights on August 20. Panama's presidential office announced that the first U.S.-funded flight to repatriate migrants who crossed into Panama irregularly is set to depart on Tuesday. These flights, carrying both deported and voluntarily repatriated migrants, are part of an agreement signed with the U.S. last month. The destination of the first flight was not specified. Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino, who took office in July, has vowed to curb migration through the Darien Gap between Panama and Colombia, a region that saw over half a million migrants cross last year. Reuters 

EUROPE

German finance minister under fire for Ukraine aid veto. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has come under criticism after vetoing new military aid to Ukraine unless additional funds can be found, suggesting frozen Russian assets as a potential source. The decision, disclosed in a letter to the defense and foreign ministries, sparked backlash across Germany's political spectrum. The chairman of the Bundestag's Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael Roth, reportedly told journalists that failing to provide new military aid for Ukraine under future federal budgets would send Kyiv "a fatal signal.” Roth told reporters that as the Ukrainian army goes on the offensive for the first time in months with its incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Kyiv needs "the full support of its most important military ally in Europe, Germany." Lindner's stance aligns with his fiscally conservative Free Democrats' commitment to strict borrowing rules amid budget pressures. Germany, Ukraine's largest military donor after the U.S., plans to reduce its military aid to Kyiv from €7.5 billion in 2024 to €4 billion in 2025. Critics, including members of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition and opposition politicians, argue that this move could signal a withdrawal of Germany's responsibility in supporting Ukraine. The finance ministry insists that Germany remains committed to supporting Ukraine "as long as necessary." Financial Times Euronews Bloomberg Associated Press 

European defense stocks down after report of freeze on new Ukraine military aid. European defense stocks dropped after a report from Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung claimed that Germany's finance ministry would halt new military aid for Ukraine due to budget constraints. Despite the report, a government spokesperson reiterated Berlin's continued support for Ukraine, calling the report "incorrect." Stocks of companies like Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and others fell before recovering slightly. The German government is considering using proceeds from frozen Russian assets for future aid, while the budget for Ukraine in 2025 is expected to be halved. Reuters 

Lithuania begins construction of base for German troops near Russian border. Lithuania has begun constructing a military base in Rudninkai, near the Russian border, to host up to 4,000 German troops by 2027. The deployment would mark Germany's first permanent foreign deployment since World War II. The base, costing over $1.1 billion, includes housing, tank storage, and shooting ranges, with concerns about meeting construction deadlines. The project is part of Lithuania's defense strategy, which has seen increased spending amid rising regional tensions. Germany's commitment is likened to Cold War-era deployments, aiming to bolster NATO's eastern flank and deter Russian aggression. Reuters 

Russia bans George Clooney’s ‘undesirable’ foundation. Russia has declared George Clooney's nonprofit, the Clooney Foundation for Justice (CFJ), "undesirable," effectively banning it from operating in the country. The foundation, co-founded by Clooney and his wife, Amal, a human rights lawyer, has been investigating war crimes in Ukraine. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office accused the CFJ of working to discredit Russia on a "Hollywood scale" and supporting anti-Russian elements. This move is part of a broader crackdown on foreign organizations critical of President Putin's regime, following a 2015 law targeting such groups. PoliticoEU

Belarus deploys additional soldiers, aircraft, armory to shared border with Ukraine.  Belarus on Monday announced that it has deployed aircraft, air defense forces, and other military assets to its border with Ukraine, following President Alexander Lukashenko's statement that nearly a third of the Belarusian armed forces have been sent to the region. This move comes after Lukashenko accused Ukraine of committing aggressive actions and of amassing over 120,000 troops near the Belarusian border. Kyiv, which claimed it had not observed a rise in Belarusian soldiers on the border, dismissed these claims as rhetoric intended to please Russia. Separately, Minsk is also expecting more military aircraft from Moscow and is focusing on strengthening its anti-drone systems. Reuters Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Flaws in Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ tactic are beginning to reveal themselves. The Wall Street Journal is out with a report detailing shortcomings in one of Iran’s major strategies. Tehran exerts influence in the Middle East through a network of allied militias that it supports with funding and weapons. These anti-Western militias allow the country to strike at Israel, the U.S., and other Western interests indirectly, avoiding direct retaliation on its own territory. However, this strategy is under strain as regional tensions escalate. Israel recently conducted direct attacks on Iran, including one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, raising the stakes for an Iranian response. The nation now faces a dilemma: it needs to retaliate enough to deter further attacks without provoking a larger conflict that could lead to strikes on its own soil. The varied interests of its allied militias, which are spread across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, complicate this. While some groups, like the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, are pushing for a more aggressive stance, others, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Syrian government, are more cautious. Iran's military capabilities, particularly its air defenses, are outdated and limited, making it vulnerable to direct attacks. The situation is further complicated by the differing agendas of its allied militias, which could lead to uncontrolled escalations, potentially destabilizing the region further. The Middle Eastern country must carefully navigate these challenges to maintain its influence and avoid a conflict that could be catastrophic for both it and its allies. Wall Street Journal

Lufthansa’s Middle East flights suspended through Aug. 26.  Germany's Lufthansa Group, one of Europe’s top airlines, announced that it has extended its suspension of flights to the Middle East until August 26 due to increasing risks in the region. This suspension, which includes flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, Amman and Erbil, as well as flights crossing Iranian and Iraqi airspace, also includes the airline group's subsidiaries like Brussels Airlines. The suspension affects both cargo and passenger flights across the entire airline group. Reuters The Brussels Times 

Ex-Saudi official claims Prince Mohammed falsified Yemen war decree, forged king’s signature. A former Saudi official, Saad al-Jabri, on Monday accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of forging his father King Salman's signature on the royal decree that initiated Riyadh's ongoing war in Yemen. Al-Jabri, a former intelligence official and major general now living in exile in Canada, made these claims in a BBC interview and later reiterated them to the Associated Press. He alleges that the crown prince bypassed an agreed plan for an airstrike campaign by authorizing a ground invasion without the king's knowledge. Al-Jabri, who is embroiled in a dispute with the Saudi government, claims that the crown prince wants him assassinated and that his children are being held in Saudi Arabia to force his return. The Saudi government has dismissed al-Jabri as a discredited former official, and the U.S. State Department did not comment on these allegations. Associated Press BBC South China Morning Post

ASIA & OCEANIA

Philippines accuses Chinese coast guard of stoking tensions in South China Sea.  The Philippines said Tuesday that China's coast guard had rammed its vessels in the South China Sea. Alexander Lopez, a spokesperson for the country's maritime council, warned China to back off.   The Philippines has been engaging in increased coast guard activity in disputed areas, a move that Beijing views as provocative.  The U.S. referred to China’s actions in the most recent encounter as “dangerous” and “reckless”.  Reuters

Taiwan demonstrates missiles for reporters in apparent message to Beijing.  Taiwan took reporters to a sensitive test site on the island’s southeastern coast to show off its missile firepower Tuesday.  In an apparent message meant for Beijing, the Taiwanese military launched U.S.-made Patriot and Taiwan-made Sky Bow III missiles from the Jiupeng base in Taiwan's Pingtung County. A warship fired RIM-66 Standard missiles. "All the missiles that were fired today have smoothly hit their mark,” a Defense Ministry spokesperson said.  Reuters

US, South Korea hold joint air drills.   More than 200 South Korean and U.S. fighter jets are due to fly over South Korea this week in the allies’ largest training exercises.  The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise is designed to boost the joint readiness of the South Korean and U.S. militaries against threats from North Korea.   Reuters Associated Press

North Korean soldier defects to South on Tuesday. Early on Tuesday, a North Korean staff sergeant defected to the South after crossing the heavily militarized border in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula and entering Goseong county. The Yonhap news agency reported the story, citing the South Korean military. South Korean military personnel, who had been monitoring his movements, took the soldier into custody. While the South Korean defense ministry confirmed the defection, they are currently questioning the soldier's motives and have not provided further details. Defections across the border are rare and dangerous, with most North Korean escapees typically fleeing through China or other third countries. Earlier this month, another North Korean resident defected to South Korea via the west coast. Reuters Al Jazeera The Guardian

China, Vietnam announce 14 new deals following meeting between leaders. China and Vietnam signed 14 agreements on various issues on Monday, including cross-border railways, central bank cooperation, and crocodile exports, during a visit by Vietnam's new leader, To Lam, to Beijing. This was Lam's first overseas trip since becoming party chief, hinting at a desire to strengthen bilateral ties despite occasional disputes over the South China Sea. Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of the relationship and expressed support for Vietnam's socialist path and modernization efforts. Lam highlighted the significance of the China-Vietnam relationship in Vietnam's foreign policy. During the visit, Lam requested Chinese assistance, including soft loans and technology for Hanoi's infrastructure development. Both leaders agreed to enhance connectivity between the two countries through railways and highways, with plans to boost defense and security cooperation. The agreements also included cooperation in areas like central banking, media, health, and the inspection of agricultural products. The visit concluded with discussions on strategic partnership and common concerns. A joint declaration is expected to be issued soon. Reuters

Philippines reports first case of MPOX. The Philippines on Monday reported its first MPOX case of the year, just days after the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency due to the rapid spread of the disease in Africa. The patient, a 33-year-old Filipino man, has no recent travel history and developed a fever followed by a distinct rash. This case is only the 10th confirmed MPOX infection in the Philippines, with all previous patients having recovered. The Philippines Department of Health did not specify if the patient was infected with the newer version of the virus, Clade Ib, or the older strain, Clade IIb, which caused a global outbreak of MPOX in 2022. The virus, endemic to Western and Central Africa, has also been detected in Sweden and Pakistan. The new MPOX strain currently spreading in Congo has a higher death rate of 3%, compared to the 0.2% seen in the 2022 outbreak. New York Times Reuters Al Jazeera

A few Afghan refugees seeking to move to the U.S. will be temporarily housed in Philippines.  The Philippines has agreed to a request by the United States to temporarily host a U.S. immigrant visa processing center for a limited number of Afghan nationals aspiring to resettle in U.S.  State Department officials said the U.S. government will pay for services for Afghans temporarily in the Philippines, including food, housing, security, medical, and transportation to complete visa processing. A senior Philippine official told the Associated Press that only 150 to 300 applicants would be accommodated in the Philippines under the “one-time” deal.  Associated Press Reuters State Department

Australia, Indonesia finalize treaty-level defense deal. Australia and Indonesia have signed a treaty-level defense cooperation agreement allowing their militaries to operate from each other's countries. This agreement, announced by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday, is aimed at enhancing mutual security and regional stability. The two countries, which share the world's longest maritime boundary, already collaborate on issues like security, drug smuggling, and people-trafficking. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles emphasized the “deep strategic trust” between the nations. Despite Indonesia's commitment to non-alignment and maintaining good relations with both China and the U.S., this agreement marks a significant step in their defense partnership. Reuters Le Monde BNN Bloomberg

U.S. greenlights potential sale of Javelin missiles to Australia. The Pentagon on Monday announced that the U.S. Department of State has agreed to the possible $100 million sale of Javelin missiles and equipment to Australia. Reuters Australian Defence Magazine

5 militants, 3 Pakistani soldiers killed in shootout in remote Pakistani region. Five militants and 3 Pakistani troops were killed Monday during a firefight between security forces and insurgents attempting to cross into Pakistan from Afghanistan in the Bajur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a remote northwestern region. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that Afghanistan manage their shared border more effectively, accusing Kabul of ignoring militants operating near the frontier, a claim the Afghan Taliban government denies. Violence in Pakistan has soared in recent years, largely attributed to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which is allied with the Afghan Taliban. Many TTP members have sought refuge in Afghanistan since the Taliban took power there in 2021. The Pakistani military's statement did not specify if the militants involved in Monday's incident were linked to the TTP. Associated Press

AFRICA

Congo to receive first MPOX vaccines by next week. The Congolese health minister on Monday revealed that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) expects to receive its first doses of MPOX vaccine by next week, following pledges of assistance from the U.S. and Japan. This comes after the World Health Organization declared MPOX a global public health emergency due to the rapid spread of a new variant, clade Ib, in Africa. The health minister confirmed that discussions with the U.S. government and USAID have concluded, and said he hopes the vaccines will arrive soon. Japan has also committed to providing Congo with MPOX vaccines and needles, with Japan-based KM Biologics being one of the manufacturers. The global vaccine group Gavi has offered up to $500 million to help distribute vaccines to affected African countries, and the DRC has agreed to this support. Reuters 

U.S. company to donate 50,000 vaccine doses to African nations reeling from MPOX outbreak. Emergent BioSolutions, a Maryland-based biopharmaceutical company, on Monday announced that it would donate 50,000 doses of its ACAM2000 smallpox vaccine to African countries struggling to handle a sudden outbreak of MPOX. These nations include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. The World Health Organization recently declared MPOX a global public health emergency due to the rapid spread of a new variant, clade Ib, which has also been detected in Sweden and the Philippines. Although ACAM2000 is approved for smallpox, it has not yet received U.S. FDA approval for MPOX. The vaccine, which uses a live, replicating virus, carries more risks and side effects, such as myocarditis/pericarditis, compared to the Jynneos vaccine by Bavarian Nordic, which is approved for both smallpox and MPOX in the U.S. Reuters Deccan Herald 

CYBER & TECH

New Japanese defense research center plans ‘game-changing’ weapons development.  Japan’s defense ministry is establishing a new defense research center with the goal of creating “game-changing” weapons, including hypersonic missiles and AI-enabled drones.  Technologies to detect submarines using electromagnetic waves will also be on the center’s research agenda.  The center will be operated by the defense ministry’s Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency, and is scheduled to open in October.  Kazuto Suzuki, a technology professor at Tokyo University, said Japan has undergone a “shift in understanding” that motivates it to take steps “to protect ourselves” in the event of a drop in U.S. commitment or capability to defend Japan.  The new center plans collaborations with similar allied research facilities as partner nations seek to share the financial burden connected to advanced military systems.  Japan’s defense ministry has highlighted its interest in AI applications for target detection, data collection and analysis, and cybersecurity.  In light of Japan’s manpower shortages, Suzuki said the military needs to reconsider “how to operate troops and equipment, most particularly the maritime domain.”  South China Morning Post

New round of Chinese drone export controls aims at curbing foreign dual-use sales.  Effective September 1, a new round of Chinese export controls on drones and component parts will go into effect, including aircraft engines with output that exceeds 16 KW.  The controls extend to payload components such as infrared imaging devices, synthetic-aperture radars and wireless communications systems with a range greater than 31 miles.  Control equipment will also be limited, including drone consoles capable of managing more than 10 drones simultaneously.  In a catch-all provision of the new rules, export vendors can be punished for equipment sales not specifically prohibited “if they have known or reasonably should know that the export will be used for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorist activities or military purposes.”  The Commerce Ministry will require Chinese exporters to obtain approval for potential “dual use” equipment and provide documentation on end users and intended use.  Violations of the controls could lead to administrative punishments and possibly criminal charges.  The latest controls join restrictions on drone technology exports imposed last September.  The U.S. Congress in July included a “Countering CCP (Chinese Communist Party) Drones Act” as part of the defense authorization bill, describing the Chinese DJI drone manufacturer as a “threat to national security.”  South China Morning Post

Wired examines key roles for multi-mission drones in Taiwan Strait conflict.  According to analysts with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), China has replicated U.S. large and medium-sized high-altitude drones at lower costs while at the same time dominating production of smaller drones that can be put to military purposes.  The Wall Street Journal has reported that DJI, the Chinese drone manufacturer, controls three-quarters of the world market for commercial drones.  CNAS analyst Stacie Pettyjohn noted that this lead in dual-use platforms is potentially more threatening since “the smaller drones that don’t have to fly as far and can be launched from mainland China, of which the Chinese military has many.”  In comparison, U.S. and Taiwan forces, the CNAS study reports, “do not have large inventories of drones or the right mix of drones to successfully defeat a Chinese invasion.”  The Pentagon plans to address this imbalance by deploying a “massive screen” of autonomous drones in the Taiwan Strait with missions ranging from attack to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).  Among the CNAS study recommendations, the U.S. should acquire a complement of stealthy drones to “conduct surveillance in highly contested airspace and provide targeting information for standoff missile strikes.”  CNAS also projects that “affordable kamikaze drones with relatively simple autonomy could overwhelm the Chinese navy’s air defenses and damage or destroy the invasion fleet.”  Wired

DoD innovation unit drone competition focuses on speed, end user participation. The Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) is launching a new competition, the Blue UAS Refresh Challenge, to broaden the range of commercial drones available to warfighters.  Trent Emeneker, the DIU’s lead for Blue UAS, said the Challenge will operate with different participants and judging criteria.  First, he noted, “actual operators and end users are going to be the ones who determine the platforms, companies and capabilities that are selected to actually go to the flight event.”  In addition, Emeneker said, those operators and end users will “be the ones doing the actual testing, as folks from operational units giving feedback within a rubric that we develop to ensure that it’s a fair and competitive process.”  Two previous Blue UAS competitions judged companies to meet congressional standards, accelerating the process by which DoD customers could buy and operate their products.  However, Emeneker pointed out that given the pace of technology development, the evaluation process needs “to move faster.”  The Challenge will wrap up with a demonstration day in November, with winners eligible to be included in the Blue UAS List for flying platforms.  Emeneker noted that this is an iterative process, with “some of the things we pick, the end user’s not going to want.”  He said the platforms that do not meet user requirements will be removed from the list “and we’re going to put something else on that we think meets the needs better.”  DefenseScoop

Chinese military researchers claim unorthodox solution to hypersonic heat problem.  Chinese military researchers have developed a simple cooling device for hypersonic platforms to address the problem of searing heat during flight.  The structure simply needs clean water before each flight and operates for two and one-half hours, the period for a hypersonic craft to transit from one side of the Earth to the other.   According to a paper prepared by a team from the National University of Defense Technology, “the system effectively utilizes the thermal energy generated by aerodynamic heating as the driving force for the active cooling cycle, achieving autonomous pressurization and cooling of the heat control device.”  The paper describes a cylindrical cooling device designed for the new generation of hypersonic aircraft.  In operation, the bottom of the cylinder is in contact with the underside of the aircraft, where heat buildup transitions to the top of the cylinder and cooling water flows clockwise inside the device, driven by the pressure produced by temperature-sensitive components.  Hypersonic flight requires complex thermal management systems so the new device would need to be complemented by other thermal protection measures such as high-temperature-resistant coatings and lightweight insulation structures. Nevertheless, the limitations of traditional cooling approaches motivated the team to “think outside the box” for an effective solution.  South China Morning Post

Think tank study notes strategic shift in Chinese semiconductor investments.  A new research report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) notes that despite billions of dollars invested that have produced some notable achievements, China lags global leaders in the semiconductor sector.  Nevertheless, the ITIF study acknowledges that China is “rapidly closing the gap across many facets of the semiconductor production process and is developing genuine IP and innovation capabilities across the board.”  China is behind by “only two years” in logic chip design used in smartphone and AI applications.  Moreover, China has a distinct lead in semiconductor patent applications, boasting 55 percent of global applications from 2021-2022, more than double U.S. patents.  Bigger hurdles exist for China in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME), memory chips, and assembly, test, and packing.  China’s lithography tools reportedly are five generations behind by some estimates.  The failure of some Chinese initiatives in the semiconductor sector to pay dividends led to an awareness in 2023 that a strategic shift was necessary, triggering increased investments in “basic R&D in semiconductor physics as well as critical technologies such as light sources for advanced lithography.”  Cybernews   Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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