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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Chinese Spy Balloon Allegedly Relayed Data on U.S. Military Sites Back to Beijing in Real Time, Washington Cannot Confirm.  The Chinese spy balloon that flew across the U.S. last month reportedly gathered SIGINT data on several U.S. military sites and transmitted the information back to Beijing in real time before being downed by the U.S. Air Force.  Senior U.S. officials, who remained anonymous, said the balloon mainly collected electronic signals data, which can include weapons signatures and communications, but relayed that the data had “little additive value” beyond what China can otherwise collect through its satellite technology. The officials added that U.S. forces kept the balloon from collecting more data than it did by moving it from potential targets or jamming relevant signals.  The White House and Pentagon said they could not confirm the media reports and that investigations into the balloon, including analysis of debris, are still ongoing.   BBC CNN NBC News Reuters

Russian Official Charged by ICC for War Crimes to Brief UN Security Council During Russian Presidency.  A top Russian official who has been charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for involvement in war crimes in Ukraine is set to brief an informal meeting of the UN Security Council this week, according to a diplomatic note from Russia to the body, as part of Russia’s holding the rotating presidency.  Maria Lvova-Belova, who is Russia’s Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights, has been accused by the ICC of being responsible for the forced deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-occupied territories since the start of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which if proven, constitutes a war-crime. The ICC issued an arrest warrant against both Ms. Lvova-Belova and President Vladimir Putin last month. Moscow says she will speak about children being “evacuated” from conflict areas in Ukraine. Should the briefing take place, the Western members of the Security Council are expected to reject the information that she relays. Reuters

Taiwan’s Tsai Visits Belize, Guatemala.  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited Belize on Monday as part of her tour across Central America.  Belize offered much needed diplomatic support, reaffirming its formal recognition of Taipei.  Tsai preceded her stop in Belize with a visit to Guatemala, where she pledged more cooperation, marked by a $4 million rural development aid deal.  Tsai’s trips to Belize and Guatemala, two of Taiwan’s 13 diplomatic allies, came after Honduras cut formal ties with Taiwan in favor of China.  Tsai will return to Taiwan on Thursday, but will make a “transit” in Los Angeles on her way back, during which she may meet with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  Beijing reiterated its warning against the potential meeting on Tuesday, with China’s consulate in Los Angeles saying it will disrupt peace and security and that McCarthy “will undoubtedly repeat disastrous past mistakes” if he speaks with Tsai, likely referring to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s meeting with Tsai in Taiwan last year.   Associated Press NBC News Reuters

Honduras Deploys Troops to Counter Criminal Groups.  Honduras deployed hundreds of soldiers throughout the country as part of ongoing efforts to crackdown on criminal groups, according to an announcement from Defense Minister Jose Manuel Zelaya and other authorities. Minister Zelaya did not say how many troops were deployed. The troops will be deployed to seven of the semi-urban areas where the drug cartels and cocaine leaf plantations have been discovered. This comes after President Xiomara Castro implemented a state of emergency back in December to address the crime groups. The state of emergency is set to expire on April 20.  Reuters

Western Europe

Finland Finally Joins NATO.  Finland became a part of the NATO alliance on Tuesday, after a longstanding position of neutrality following the Second World War. Its foreign minister delivered the accession documents to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, formalizing a move that constitutes a major setback for Russia, which shares an 832 mile border with Finland and is embroiled in a Ukraine conflict that has drawn major weaponry and guidance from the alliance. The U.S. State Department is where NATO texts regarding membership reside.  Associated Press Axios Reuters

European Commission President Urges China to Help End Russian War. In advance of her joint visit to China with France’s Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on Beijing to play a “constructive” role in bringing peace to Ukraine and use its ties to rein in the war there. Ms. von der Leyen emphasized that President Xi Jinping has not yet made a call to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, and emphasized that Beijing could influence Russia in a constructive way if it chose to do so. French officials have said that President Macron wants to make France’s bilateral relationship with China more predictable, which has been complicated by the current geopolitical environment. Macron’s trip will begin in Beijing on Wednesday and finish in Guangzhou, and will be accompanied by the French finance and foreign ministers as well as business leaders from about 50 companies, highlighting the importance of the trade relationship between Europe and China.  Financial Times South China Morning Post

European Nations Insist Russia Release American Evan Gershkovich. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and several European governments denounced the arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich yesterday and demanded his release. Mr. Stoltenberg also relayed that he expects the journalist’s detention to be raised during this week’s meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. Members of the UN Security Council are also reportedly considering denouncing Moscow in the forum over the detention of Mr. Gershkovich, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response, Russian officials at the UN deferred to officials in Moscow and declined to discuss Mr. Gershkovich’s case in any detail.  Wall Street Journal

Central and Eastern Europe

Trenches in Crimea Show Russian Fears of Losing Occupied Peninsula.  Satellite images provided to The Washington Post by Maxar, a commercial space technology company, show that Russia has in recent weeks built dozens of trenches around the small town of Medvedivka in Crimea, which is near a crossing to mainland Ukraine. The trench system stretches several miles, and provides an ability for soldiers to use fortified positions in their attempts to protect the area, as well as deep ditches that can trap tanks and heavy vehicles. The efforts are probably in anticipation of an expected spring offensive by Ukraine; other fortifications were built near Vitino, a town on Crimea’s west coast, despite doubts that Ukraine will conduct an amphibious assault due in part to the weaknesses of Ukraine’s navy. The satellite imagery reveals that Russia has focused its defenses in Crimea along bodies of water, which analysts suspect is to add an extra obstacle to a potential ground offensive by Ukrainian forces. Obstacles have also been placed along key roads that connect mainland Ukraine to Crimea in Kherson and near Melitopol. Russian sites in or near Crimea have been hit by more than 70 suspected attacks by Ukrainian forces or collaborators since August, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), including airstrikes and sabotage. The Washington Post

Russia Links Woman Suspected of Killing Pro-War Blogger to Political Opposition, Ukraine.  More information is coming out about the woman Russian authorities arrested on suspicion of carrying out a bombing in St. Petersburg that killed pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky.  According to court records, news reports and friends, the woman, Daria Trepova, is allegedly at least a casual supporter of Russia’s political opposition, as she had attended some opposition rallies and signed up online to receive information about opposition candidates.  Russian officials claimed she is an agent of jailed Russian opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny and that she conducted the bombing in coordination with Ukrainian intelligence, though they did not provide evidence. Russian police released video footage allegedly showing Trepova admitting that she received the bomb concealed in a statuette from an unidentified person and then took it to the cafe Tatarsky was at.  Western media reports could not confirm the authenticity of the video, and Trepova’s alleged husband, Dmitry Rylov, told Russian media she was set up by the person who gave her the bomb.  With the association of Trepova and Russia’s opposition, analysts say Moscow may use the St. Petersburg bombing as pretext to intensify its repression of dissenting voices, especially those against the Ukraine war.  The New York Times  

Asia

China Invites Australian PM to Visit Beijing.  China issued “in-principle” invitations for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and trade minister Don Farrell to visit Beijing, possibly in September or October.  Australian and Chinese government sources said Albanese’s trip may coincide with the 50th anniversary of the October 1973 visit by then-Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam to China, which was the first visit by an Australian premier to China.  Farrell’s trip may occur sooner, as he accepted an invitation to visit from his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in February.  The visits would come as China and Australia move towards de-escalate tensions caused by an ongoing trade conflict.  South China Morning Post

Following New Zealand, Australia Banning TikTok on Government Devices.  Australia is the latest country to take action to regulate the Chinese-owned Tik Tok after announcing that it would ban the app from all federal government devices due to security concerns. The country’s Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said the decision was made after receiving advice from security and intelligence agencies, and that the ban will come into effect very soon, with exemptions granted on a case-by-case basis but only on separate standalone devices. Australia also made changes to its Protective Security Policy Framework, noting that TikTok’s data collection practices pose a security threat. Following the implementation of this ban, all members of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network will have banned the app from their government devices. TikTok responded that they were disappointed in this decision and that it is politically and not factually motivated.  Reuters TechCrunch

Philippines, U.S. Announce New Military Sites for Defense Cooperation Agreement. The US Department of Defense announced plans to add four new sites in the Philippines, expanding the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and giving the U.S. military access to bases close to Taiwan and the South China Sea. The four bases include three on the main island of Luzon, close to Taiwan, and one on the strategically important Balabac Island, in Palawan province. The new locations will allow the U.S. military to rotate troops to a total of nine bases throughout the country, including on Balabac Island, which is close to Chinese military installations in the South China Sea. Both U.S. and Philippine officials emphasized that the four new bases would not see a permanent U.S. military presence, but instead would be available to U.S. forces in contingencies. U.S. and Philippine forces will hold their largest ever joint military exercise later this month, involving an estimated 17,600 troops from the two countries, at Balikatan 23.  US Department of Defense CNN

U.S., Japan, South Korea Start Joint Naval Drills.  The U.S., South Korea and Japan began trilateral joint naval exercises off of South Korea’s Jeju Island on Monday.  The South Korean Defense ministry said the drills are focused on improving intelligence sharing and military response regarding North Korean submarines.  U.S. Rear Admiral Christopher Sweeney is leading the anti-submarine drills, as well as search-and-rescue training.  North Korean state media denounced the exercises, saying the drills show hostilities against Pyongyang have “reached the worst phase.”  Nikkei Asia 

Middle East and Northern Africa

U.S. Kills Senior Leader of ISIS in Syria.  U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Tuesday that U.S. forces conducted a drone strike on Monday that killed Khalid 'Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri, a top leader of Islamic State in Syria. The U.S. military did not identify where the attack occurred, but said that no civilians were killed or injured in the strike. CENTCOM also highlighted that the Islamic State still remains a major threat in the region despite the death of al-Jabouri, who planned attacks in Europe and developed the group’s leadership. The U.S. has 900 soldiers stationed in Syria as part of a continuing campaign against the terrorist group; U.S. and Syrian forces killed two Islamic State leaders last year.  CNN NBC News Reuters

Israeli Airstrike Reportedly Kills Two Civilians.  The Syrian Government said Tuesday that an Israeli missile strike killed two civilians near Damascus.  The strike was the fourth such reported attack that Syria blamed on Israel in the last six days and the latest incident in a tit-for-tat across the border.  Israel did not comment on the strike.  Al Jazeera Wall Street Journal

Sub Saharan Africa

Russia Claims U.S. Trying To Undermine Russia-Africa Summit. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on Tuesday that the U.S. is trying to undermine its planned summit with African countries, scheduled for the end of July in St. Petersburg, as part of the U.S. campaign to isolate Moscow.  The summit will focus on cooperation in infrastructure, technology, and energy projects. There is a long history of cooperation between countries in Africa and Russia, as well as with the former Soviet Union; Lavrov has been particularly keen to expand ties, and visited the continent twice this year in addition to his tour in mid-2022.  Earlier this year, South Africa held 10 days of military exercises with its Chinese and Russian counterparts, and Russia’s Wagner group has long had an active presence in countries including Mali and the Central African Republic. Reuters Bloomberg

New Marburg Outbreak in Africa Raises Alarm Bells. Two outbreaks of the Marburg virus in Tanzania on Africa’s east coast and in Equatorial Guinea on the west coast – the first ever reported in either country – are raising concerns about the behavior of the pathogen and global efforts to prepare for and respond to potential pandemics.  The virus, which is similar to Ebola and comes from bats, can kill as much as 90 percent of the people it infects; there are currently no treatments or vaccines, but there are ongoing clinical trials.  Marburg has previously been relatively rare and isolated to specific parts of Africa, but it has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. While the outbreak in Tanzania seems to have been brought under control, last week the World Health Organization said that Equatorial Guinea was not being transparent in reporting cases. Equatorial Guinea has porous borders with Cameroon and Gabon, risking potential for an outbreak in those countries if the virus is not contained. The WHO says it drafted a research protocol that can be applied in these outbreaks and has been trying to get trials for vaccines underway for more than a month. New York Times Fox News

Cyber & Tech

Italy Temporarily Bans ChatGPT.  Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini spoke against the Italian national data-protection agency’s decision to temporarily block OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT and investigate the app over privacy concerns.  The ban marks the first restriction on the chatbot from a Western country.  The watchdog said it is flagging ChatGPT for various data security reasons, including: the fact that there is no legal basis for the app to conduct mass collection of data to train its algorithm; the app’s current inability to verify users, which potentially puts minors at risk; and an alleged data breach the app suffered on March 20 which exposed user conversations and payment information.  The Italian data authority said OpenAI has 20 days to address these concerns or face a fine of 20 million euros or up to 4 percent of annual revenues.  Salvini, who leads the ruling coalition League Party, called the agency’s moves against ChatGPT “disproportionate” and “hypocritical” since all online services are subject to privacy concerns, suggesting the app and other artificial intelligence should not face uniquely harsh scrutiny or limits.  OpenAI maintains that it complies with data protection laws and says it is working to have ChatGPT made available in Italy again “soon.”  The Italian ban on ChatGPT comes amid increasing concern about potential risks that come with the AI boom.  BBC Reuters

Italy’s ChatGPT Ban Spurs EU Consideration of Similar Restrictions.  Following Italy’s temporary ban on ChatGPT, other Western data security agencies are considering imposing their own restrictions on the app, and artificial intelligence in general, due to similar privacy concerns.  Germany’s data protection commissioner said Berlin is considering a similar ban, and privacy regulators in France and Ireland say they are working with Italy to understand the basis of its move against ChatGPT.  However, other regulators, such as those in Sweden and Spain, say they are not planning any actions targeting ChatGPT in the near future.  The varied responses across Europe on how to deal with ChatGPT demonstrate ongoing debate and uncertainty on how best to regulate AI development and what tools governments have to do so.  Reuters

China Warns Against ‘Weaponizing’ Tech Following Japan Chip Export Restrictions. China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday that the country was “dissatisfied” with the recently announced Japanese export restrictions on chip manufacturing equipment. Mao also said that they had hoped that Japan would honor its previous statement on cooperation with China.  Reuters

UK Firm Involved in Nuclear Submarine Training Confirms Cyber Incident. Capita, the UK company involved in nuclear submarine training and other contracts with the Ministry of Defense, confirmed that the company suffered an IT outage that locked staff out of their accounts. According to a company spokesperson, it is currently being investigated as a “technical issue” and that no customer or other company data appears to have been compromised.  The Record

New York Times: U.S. Agency Employs Spyware While Administration Limits Commercial Access.  Despite a Biden administration prohibition on the government use of commercial spyware, The New York Times reported that U.S. officials signed a contract with a blacklisted Israeli company less than a week prior to the ban. That contract allegedly remains active. In the deal, the company, NSO Group, allegedly provided a geolocation tool that can covertly track mobile phones around the world without the phone users' knowledge or consent. The U.S. Commerce Department blacklisted the spyware firm, which has long produced powerful surveillance that have at times been used to spy on journalists and activists, after declaring the company a national security threat. White House officials reportedly said they were initially unaware of the contract.  New York Times

BreakingDefense:  Joint Space Information Center Launches Cyber Defense Watch Function.  In a sign of growing concerns over cyber threats to military and commercial space systems, the public-private U.S. Space Information and Analysis Sharing Center formed what is being termed a new “Operational Watch Center” to assess and provide guidance on such threats. The move comes after Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman asked for $700 million in fiscal 2024 to strengthen cyber defenses during March 28 congressional testimony.  The group is comprised of firms such as Lockheed Martin; Northrop Grumman; L3Harris; Kratos; SES; Parsons; Booz Allen Hamilton; as well as the US government’s National Cyber Center of Excellence and a bevy of universities.  BreakingDefense

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