Report for Tuesday, April 30, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Blinken in Middle East for ceasefire negotiations, post-war peacemaking

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says still time for 'Ukraine to prevail'

China's top spy agency vows to fight 'Taiwan independence' ahead of Lai's inauguration

China's Xi to visit Europe for first time since 2019

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — A Russia-China Show of Force in the Arctic.

OPINION — Inside the $95 Billion Foreign Aid Bill - and What It Took to Get It Passed.

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Blinken in Middle East, working on post-war peacemaking.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Riyadh soon after dawn Monday and met with a series of Arab officials, hoping to build support for a solution to end the war between Israel and Hamas, free the hostages remaining in Hamas hands and ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.  Blinken met with Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, and with foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan, as well as Palestine Liberation Organization Secretary General Hussein Al Sheikh.  According to a State Department readout, Blinken “reaffirmed the United States’ support for efforts to achieve lasting peace in the region, including through a pathway to a Palestinian state with security assurances for Israel.” Blinken is said to be looking beyond the immediate goal of a ceasefire and hostage release to an expansive postwar peacemaking plan that would include normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the creation of an Arab force to stabilize Gaza, the beginnings of a Palestinian state and greater diplomatic recognition for Israel in the region. On Monday night Blinken met with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.  Blinken is scheduled to travel to Jordan and Israel on Tuesday.   Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters 

Britain echoes U.S. call for Hamas to accept ‘generous’ ceasefire deal.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged Hamas to accept an Israeli proposal for a truce and release of some Israeli hostages.  "Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel," Blinken said at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh. "The only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas. They have to decide and they have to decide quickly," Blinken said. "I'm hopeful that they will make the right decision."

A source said Israel asked for the release of fewer than 40 of the roughly 130 hostages still believed to be in Gaza, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and a "period of sustained calm." British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, also in Riyadh for the forum, followed Blinken’s lead in calling the Israeli proposal "generous." "I hope Hamas do take this deal and frankly, all the pressure in the world and all the eyes in the world should be on them today saying 'take that deal'," Cameron said. He said the Israeli offer included a sustained 40-day cease-fire.  When the talk turned to Rafah, Blinken said that the U.S. could not back an Israeli ground assault on Rafah if Israel had no plan to protect civilians. Washington Post Reuters Bloomberg   

Israel softens demand for hostages to 33 in next phase.  Israel is asking for just 33 hostages to be freed during the first phase of truce in Gaza, a shift from earlier demand for at least 40 hostages — women, older people and those who are seriously ill.  The New York Times reported that Israel dropped the number because it now believes that some of the 40 have died in captivity.  Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s foreign minister, said he was “hopeful” about the latest cease-fire proposal.  “The proposal has taken into account the positions of both sides,” Mr. Shoukry said. “We are waiting to have a final decision” from Hamas, he said. An Israeli delegation is planning to fly to Cairo Tuesday to restart talks mediated by Egypt, but only if Hamas also agrees to attend.  A senior Hamas official said that a delegation was already in Cairo on Monday. At the economic forum in Saudi Arabia, the British foreign secretary  said the Hamas leadership must go into exile for the conflict to end: “The people responsible for Oct. 7, the Hamas leadership, would have to leave Gaza,” he said.  New York Times Reuters Semafor

Hamas media, health officials claim Israeli strikes kill at least 40 Palestinians in Gaza.  Bombs hit three houses in Rafah on Monday. In Gaza City, in the north of the strip, Israeli warplanes struck two houses, killing at least six people and wounding several others, health officials said. An Israeli air strike on a house in the Al-Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza killed three Palestinians, including a journalist, medics and Hamas media said. Six other people were killed in other central Gaza areas in separate Israeli air strikes, they added.  Asked about the Rafah strikes, an Israeli military (IDF) spokesperson said fighter jets had "struck terror targets where terrorists were operating within a civilian area in southern Gaza," declining to give details. Reuters

Hamas fires rockets from Lebanon into Israel.  Hamas’s military wing launched a salvo of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel to show that it can strike Israeli territory while it considers Israel’s latest cease-fire proposal.  Hamas’ Qassam Brigades, said in a statement that it had targeted an Israeli military position in Kiryat Shmona, the largest city in Israel’s far north, with a “concentrated rocket barrage” from southern Lebanon.  The Israeli military said it had intercepted most of the roughly 20 projectiles and had  struck back at  the source of fire.  There were no injuries or damage, the military said.  Many Hamas leaders are exiled in Lebanon, where the group has a large presence and operates mainly out of Palestinian refugee camps.   New York Times

Lawyers call on Biden administration to stop supplying weapons to Israel.  A coalition of lawyers, including at least 20 working in the Biden administration, are calling on President Joe Biden to halt military aid to Israel, on grounds that its conduct in Gaza does not comply with U.S. and international humanitarian law.  They plan to send a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and general counsels across the administration. The letter argues that Israel likely violated the Arms Export Control Act, Leahy laws and Geneva Conventions prohibiting disproportionate attacks on civilian populations.  More than 90 lawyers have signed on, including from the departments of Justice, State, Homeland Security, Labor and Energy, along with lawyers at the European Commission and in the private sector.   The White House faces a May 8 deadline to certify to Congress that Israel’s military actions involving American-supplied weapons follow U.S. or international law.  Politico   

State cites five Israeli security force units for violating rights but stops short of sanctions.  The State Department accused five Israeli security forces units of gross violations of human rights on Monday but declined to deny U.S. military assistance to any of the units.  State said Israel had conducted "remediation" in four units , to ensure they complied with a U.S. law prohibiting military assistance to security force units that commit such abuses and have not been brought to justice.  In the case of a fifth unit, believed to be the Netzah Yehuda battalion of the Israel Defense Forces, Washington was still in discussions with Israel. The Netzah Yehuda has been implicated in the 2022 death of 78-year-old Palestinian-American Omar Assad.  The units were investigated for alleged violations before conflict broke out between Israel and Hamas last October.  Human rights groups have reported incidents by Israeli units including extrajudicial killings, torture and physical abuse, most of them against Palestinians in the West Bank.  Reuters

Israeli officials could be charged by the International Criminal Court.  Israeli officials fear that the International Criminal Court may issue arrest warrants for government officials for Israel’s war against Hamas. The ICC can charge individuals with war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.  It is investigating Hamas' Oct. 7 cross-border attack and Israel's devastating military assault on Hamas-ruled Gaza.  Prosecutors from the International Criminal Court in The Hague have interviewed staff from Gaza's two biggest hospitals about possible war crimes in the Gaza Strip.  Reuters, quoting sources, reported that ICC investigators had taken testimony from staff who had worked in the two main Gaza hospitals, Al Shifa and Nasser.  Israel claims Hamas militants used the hospitals for military purposes. Hamas and medical staff deny this.  Associated Press Reuters Reuters Bloomberg

U.S. to spend $320 million on military pier for Gaza relief.  The U.S. military's cost estimate to build a pier off Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid has nearly doubled, to $320 million.  The project involves about 1,000 U.S. service members, mostly from the Army and Navy.  "The cost has not just risen. It has exploded," Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told Reuters. "This dangerous effort with marginal benefit will now cost the American taxpayers at least $320 million to operate the pier for only 90 days."  President Joe Biden announced the pier in March in order to open another route for aid into the enclave.  Reuters Associated Press

The top UN court is set to rule on Nicaragua’s request for Germany to halt aid to Israel.  The United Nations’ top court is ruling Tuesday on a request by Nicaragua for judges to order Germany to halt military aid to Israel, on grounds that it enables acts of genocide and breaches of international humanitarian law in Gaza.  Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian missile hits educational institution, kills four in Ukraine's Odesa.  A Russian missile attack on a private law academy in Odesa killed at least four people and injured 32 others on Monday.  The strike, conducted with an Iskander-M ballistic missile, hit a popular seafront park, causing extensive damage and fires.  Among the severely injured were a four-year-old child and a pregnant woman.  Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov condemned the attack, highlighting the civilian nature of the target.  "Monsters. Beasts. Savages. Scum. I don't know what else to say," Trukhanov said in a video posted on Telegram. "People are going for a walk by the sea, and they are shooting and killing."  The academy's president, former member of parliament Serhiy Kivalov, was also injured.  Odesa has been a frequent target of Russian missile and drone attacks, particularly targeting port infrastructure.  Reuters Associated Press

NATO chief, on unannounced Kyiv visit, says arms flows to Ukraine will increase.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that NATO had not met its commitments for military aid to Ukraine, resulting in Ukrainian setbacks on the battlefield.  During a visit to Kyiv on Monday, where he held talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian parliament, he noted recent initiatives, including a $61 billion aid package from the U.S. and increased commitments from the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands.  Stoltenberg expressed confidence that the renewed support would help. “Ukraine has been outgunned for months,” the NATO chief said at a joint press conference in Kyiv with Zelensky. “But it’s not too late for Ukraine to prevail.”  He emphasized the urgency of NATO fulfilling its promises to help Ukraine. Zelensky said: "The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of a situation when we are waiting for supplies from our partners, especially from the United States of America.”  Reuters Bloomberg Ukrainska Pravda Associated Press

Russia exploiting delay in Western aid for Ukraine. Russian forces have recently captured several villages in eastern Ukraine, taking advantage of delays in U.S. military aid and superior numbers of troops and munitions. This incremental progress toward the Kremlin’s goal of capturing the entire Donbas region has exposed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses, including Kyiv’s failure to mobilize more men in the third year of war. Ukrainian forces have retreated from front-line positions due to a lack of manpower and delays in receiving Western aid. February’s loss of the strategic city of Avdiivka and other setbacks have highlighted these challenges. Russia has employed modified glide bombs, which Ukraine has been unable to counter. Military aid arriving soon from the U.S. could help address the ammunition shortage, but it will take time for Ukraine to arm, train, and prepare new recruits. Some Ukrainian units have been fighting months without a break while Russia has been able to regroup and rotate troops along the front line. Inadequate defensive positions are also a problem for Ukraine, analysts say. They require “resources that understaffed brigades lack,” according to a former Ukrainian intelligence officer.  Vienna-based defense analyst Franz-Stefan Gady said that “the threat of a partial Ukrainian front-line collapse in 2024 is real.”  Wall Street Journal BBC Reuters

Ukraine bets on long-range drones, raising the costs of war for Russia. Ukraine is increasing use of domestically-produced long-range drones to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory, targeting crucial infrastructure like oil refineries and airfields. These drones, which are cheaper and more accessible than cruise missiles, are part of Ukraine’s effort to take the war to Russian soil, potentially forcing a strategic reallocation of Russian air defenses. This shift comes amid Ukraine's challenging battlefield conditions and political constraints on using Western-supplied weapons for attacks inside Russia. The campaign has caused tensions with the U.S., particularly concerning impacts on global energy prices. Despite these efforts, the overall success rate of these drone strikes remains limited due to Russian countermeasures like jamming. The rapid evolution of Ukraine’s drone industry reflects “the ingenuity and resourcefulness that have enabled it to resist invasion by a much bigger neighbor,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “ But the ad hoc approach has limits against a country that has put its whole economy on a war footing and is deploying hundreds of Iranian-made Shahed drones in tandem with missiles to erode Ukraine’s air defenses.” Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent

UN says North Korean missile landed in Kharkiv. United Nations monitors have identified debris from a missile that hit Kharkiv as being from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series missile, in violation of UN sanctions. This finding suggests involvement by Russian forces, given indications the missile was launched from Russian territory. This revelation aligns with US accusations of North Korea supplying weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine despite denials from both Moscow and Pyongyang. North Korea has been under UN sanctions for its ballistic missile and nuclear programs since 2006. Reuters Kyiv Independent Al Jazeera 

Thousands of former Wagner fighters now answer to Moscow.  Seven months after Yevgeny Prigozhin's death, Russia is restructuring the former Wagner Group mercenaries to pursue the Kremlin's global agenda, particularly in Africa.  The mercenaries, once led by Prigozhin, are now divided into at least four groups and mixed with other loyal forces to dilute their unity and increase Kremlin control over them, according to U.S. officials who spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity. These reorganized groups are deployed worldwide, inflicting setbacks to U.S. efforts in counterterrorism and undermining democracy promotion, forcing the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger and Chad. This reassertion of control over the mercenaries aims to extend Russian influence by supporting and arming military regimes and challenging Western influence in the region. Prigozhin died last August when his plane exploded in midair. The crash was viewed by the West as a state-sponsored assassination ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin in retaliation for Prigozhin’s aborted insurrection against Moscow.  Politico 

Thirty draft evaders have died attempting to flee Ukraine since the war started. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, approximately 30 Ukrainian men have died while trying to cross the country’s borders to evade military conscription illegally. According to Ukraine’s border service spokesman Andriy Demchenko, these fatalities occurred in perilous attempts to navigate mountain rivers and terrain, particularly at the Tisa River near Romania. Ukraine enforces martial law that restricts military-age males from leaving, leading to numerous attempts daily, often aided by criminal groups, to cross borders using unofficial routes or forged documents. Reuters Kyiv Independent Ukrinform 

The Americas

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — A Russia-China Show of Force in the Arctic.

OPINION — Inside the $95 Billion Foreign Aid Bill - and What It Took to Get It Passed.

Kenya force to head to Haiti, with no clear support. Kenya is set to begin deploying up to 200 security personnel to Haiti by late May despite a U.S.-constructed base not being ready. This move, coinciding with Kenyan President William Ruto's visit to Washington, aims to help secure Haiti and control violent gangs. However, the lack of completed infrastructure raises concerns about the feasibility of the deployment and its effectiveness against gang violence. Additionally, there's uncertainty about the rules of engagement for the Kenyan forces in confronting these gangs.  Politico Reuters

Governors oppose national guard shift to space force.  Most U.S. governors oppose a Department of Defense proposal to transfer Air National Guard space operations to the Space Force, citing concerns over national security, military readiness, and the undermining of a century-long precedent. The proposal, which requires overriding governors' consent laws, aims to streamline space command but faces criticism for potentially stripping states of space capabilities and impacting the careers of National Guard members amid recruitment challenges. All governors except for Florida’s and Texas's signed a letter expressing these concerns. The plan affects approximately 1,000 National Guard members across seven states.  Axios

Indian intelligence officer directed assassination plot of Modi critic in U.S.  An Indian intelligence officer coordinated a plot to assassinate a U.S citizen Sikh activist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi was being welcomed in a state visit by the White House. Vikram Yadav, an officer in India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), relayed instructions and details about the target, Pannun, according to current and former U.S. and Indian security officials and a U.S. indictment. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the operation targeting Pannun was approved by the RAW chief at the time, Samant Goel, and have more tentatively assessed that Modi's national security adviser, Ajit Doval, was aware of RAW's plans to kill Sikh activists.  The White House has expressed concern over reports of Indian intelligence's involvement in assassination plots in Canada and the U.S.  The U.S. is investigating, while India denies involvement and has promised to look into the allegations.  Resulting tensions could damage U.S.-India relations, particularly in the context of cooperation against China's rising influence. Washington Post Reuters

Former US NSA employee gets nearly 22 years in prison for attempted espionage. Jareh Sebastian Dalke, a former U.S. National Security Agency employee, was sentenced to nearly 22 years in prison for attempting to transmit classified information to who he thought was a Russian agent, but was actually an FBI undercover employee.  Dalke, 32, pleaded guilty to six counts of attempting to transmit classified national defense information, using encrypted email to share excerpts of documents in exchange for $85,000.  "This sentence should serve as a stark warning to all those entrusted with protecting national defense information that there are consequences to betraying that trust," FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a statement.  Reuters

Colleges across US seek to clear protest encampments by force or ultimatum as commencements approach.  Columbia University on Monday began suspending pro-Palestinian student activists for refusing to dismantle a protest camp on campus.  University President Nemat Minouche Shafik cited failed negotiations and the need to maintain campus safety and order as reasons for the crackdown. The protest, central to a series of similar demonstrations across U.S. campuses, has been marked by its intensity and the university's strong measures, including police involvement and arrests. The protesters demand divestment from Israel and transparency in university finances.

Protesters and police clashed Monday at the University of Texas in a confrontation that resulted in dozens of arrests for trespassing and disorderly conduct. Officers used pepper spray and flash-bang devices to clear crowds. Over the weekend, tensions escalated at the University of California Los Angeles between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian demonstrators. A barrier set up to separate the groups was breached, leading to physical altercations including shoving and punching. The situation eventually calmed, with no arrests reported by campus police.

Students dug in their heels at other high-profile universities, with standoffs continuing at Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, Yale, and others. Late Monday, police in riot gear at Virginia Commonwealth University sought to break up an encampment there and clashed with protesters.

In a rare case, Northwestern University said it reached an agreement with students and faculty who represent the majority of protesters on its campus near Chicago. At the University of Southern California, organizers of a large encampment sat down with university President Carol Folt for about 90 minutes on Monday. Folt said talks would continue on Tuesday.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press Associated Press

US, Mexico to clamp down on illegal immigration, leaders say. The United States and Mexico have committed to intensifying efforts to curb illegal immigration across their border. In a phone conversation on Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said their administrations would soon take steps to decrease illegal crossings while also addressing the economic and security problems that cause people to migrate. The initiative includes immediate concrete actions coordinated by national security teams from both countries, aiming to balance strict border controls with the protection of human rights. The discussions also involve potential legal status and work permits for some migrants in the U.S., amidst ongoing political debates and upcoming elections in both nations. The U.S. Border Patrol caught a monthly record of 250,000 migrants crossing illegally in December, but numbers have dropped significantly since then, with 137,000 arrests in March.  Reuters Associated Press

Ecuador sues Mexico over asylum decision at World Court.  Ecuador is suing Mexico at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging that Mexico's asylum grant to former Ecuadorean Vice President Jorge Glas, who faces corruption charges, was illegal.  Glas was arrested on April 5 in an armed raid at Mexico's embassy in Quito, where he had been residing.  Ecuador claims Mexico interfered in its internal affairs by granting asylum.  In response, Mexico also sued Ecuador for violating international law through the embassy raid.  The ICJ is set to conduct emergency hearings, though final rulings could take years and are difficult to enforce. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Asia and Oceania

China’s top spy agency vows to fight ‘Taiwan independence’ ahead of Lai’s inauguration. China's Ministry of State Security issued a second public warning this year to Taiwan's “separatist forces,” pledging to expand support for reunification and guard against “revolutions.” The warning comes just weeks before William Lai Ching-te, who is known for his pro-independence stance, takes office as Taiwan's new leader. In a Chinese state media article, Minister of State Security Chen Yixin vowed to fight “Taiwan independence,” counter foreign interference, and punish Taiwanese spies.  South China Morning Post

China's coast guard expels Philippine vessels from Scarborough Shoal, state media says. China's coast guard said Monday it had expelled a Philippine vessel from the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, marking another clash in a series of recent conflicts at the disputed reef.  The Scarborough Shoal is claimed by both China and the Philippines.  Manila considers it part of its exclusive economic zone.  Tensions have escalated despite previous commitments from both nations to improve communication and manage disputes, particularly as the Philippines strengthens its ties with the United States.  Reuters Al Jazeera

ANALYSIS - The Dark-Horse alliance between the U.S. and the Philippines against China. The U.S.-Philippines alliance has strengthened over the past four years, reversing a near-breakup under former President Rodrigo Duterte, who favored a realignment toward Beijing. The turnaround is attributed to a U.S. strategic interest, a new leader in Manila, and China's increased activity in the South China Sea.  The change is seen in increased military exercises and high-level diplomatic exchanges.  As part of this, the U.S. gained access to four additional Philippine military bases last year, bringing the total to nine. The bases, some located in strategically significant areas for potential conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, are being upgraded with U.S. funding to facilitate joint operations and exercises.  The shift marks a win for President Joe Biden’s strategy to counter China by bolstering alliances.  Wall Street Journal 

China launches first of 8 advances submarines for Pakistan Navy.  China has launched the first of eight advanced Hangor-class submarines being developed for Pakistan, signaling strengthening military cooperation between the two countries. The submarine contract was signed between the Pakistan government and China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Company Ltd. during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan in 2015. Under the agreement, which includes a technology transfer, four submarines will be built in China and four in Pakistan.  The stealth vessels will be fitted with state-of-the-art weapons and sensors. During the launch ceremony in Wuhan, Admiral Naveed Ashraf, the Pakistani Chief of Naval Staff, said the submarines' play a role in maintaining regional peace and stability and the project's significance in strengthening the Pakistan-China friendship. China is Pakistan's top weapons supplier, accounting for 61% of its major arms imports between 2019 and 2023, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. South China Morning Post

Pro-China Sogavare is out of the race as Solomon Islands votes for the next leader. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has withdrawn from the leadership race following an inconclusive election. Known for aligning closely with China and distancing from traditional allies like the US and Australia, Sogavare's tenure has been marked by controversial diplomacy and increasing international scrutiny. Despite securing his seat narrowly, his party lost significant support, leading to his stepping down. Sogavare's departure comes amid criticisms of prioritizing infrastructure projects with China over local needs like healthcare. Solomon Islands lawmakers will vote for a new prime minister on Thursday, with former Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele nominated by Sogavare's party.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Europe

China’s Xi to visit E.U. for first time since 2019. China has confirmed that President Xi Jinping will travel to Europe from May 5th to 10th.  His trip will include state visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, expressed China's desire to work with France to enhance political mutual trust and cooperation through Xi's visit, which could also contribute to stability in China-Europe relations and global peace. French President Emmanuel Macron has invited European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen to a trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping on May 6th during the Chinese leader's state visit to France.  Her attendance was confirmed by her office. During Xi's visit to Serbia, he is expected to discuss upgrading China-Serbia relations with his counterpart Aleksandar Vučić. In Hungary, Xi will hold talks with Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has been the most China-friendly leader in the European Union. Hungary has confirmed that Xi will visit the country from May 8th to 10th, following his visit to Serbia. This trip marks Xi's first visit to Europe since 2019 as he attempts to strengthen ties with European nations amid ongoing geopolitical challenges and trade tensions.  Bloomberg South China Morning Post South China Morning Post Associated Press

Turkey endorses Dutch PM as next NATO head. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is closer to securing the position of NATO Secretary General after receiving Turkey's endorsement, leaving only Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary as the remaining holdouts. The endorsement comes following Rutte's visit to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Friday, as he sought support for his candidacy to replace outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose term expires in October. Romania's surprise nomination of President Klaus Iohannis for the role had delayed the process, but Turkey's decision to back Rutte will likely prompt Iohannis to withdraw his candidacy. Rutte requires unanimous support from all 32 NATO member states. Bloomberg Associated Press 

German army captain admits spying for Russia. A German army captain admitted to spying for Russia during his trial in Düsseldorf. He claimed his actions were driven by fear of nuclear escalation amid the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The officer, linked to the far-right AfD party, reportedly made unsolicited contacts with Russian authorities, providing sensitive information on munitions systems and aircraft technology. He received no payment for his activities and expressed regret, citing poor mental health at the time. His trial reveals voluntary espionage without direct compensation, with the officer seeking insight into potential nuclear threats to protect his family. Deutsche Welle Kyiv Independent

Middle East

Iran says North Korean delegation visiting Tehran trade expo.  A North Korean official delegation is currently in Tehran to participate in a trade show and engage in discussions with both the government and private sector, according to Nasser Kanaani, spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Kanaani rejected reports suggesting that the visit had a military dimension, describing them as “biased and baseless speculation.” The alleged focus of the North Korean visit is to explore opportunities for developing bilateral trade between the two countries.  The visit comes amid concerns about increased Russian cooperation with North Korea and Iran.  Bloomberg 

Italy downs Houthi drone in Red Sea. An Italian navy ship successfully intercepted a drone fired by Houthi rebels that was targeting a European cargo ship near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.  The drone was taken down when it was 3.11 miles away from the cargo ship, which was also targeted by other drones and missiles.  Despite a missile exploding in the water near the commercial vessel, only superficial damage was reported.  The Italian “Fasan” frigate and the cargo it was escorting proceeded southwards on their planned route to exit the Red Sea. Italy is part of the EU naval mission, Operation  Aspides, which was launched in February to protect shipping in the Red Sea.  Reuters

Houthis attack four ships in Indian Ocean, Red Sea. Yemen's Houthi rebels have intensified their maritime attacks by targeting four ships, including the MSC Orion container ship and the Cyclades commercial vessel, as well as two U.S. destroyers in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. These actions are part of their campaign to disrupt shipping and prevent Israel-linked vessels from navigating key maritime routes, which the group claims is in solidarity with Palestinians.  These strikes have forced shippers to reroute, increasing shipping costs and raising concerns about the broader impact on regional stability.  The United States and Britain have responded with strikes against Houthi targets in retaliation.  Reuters Associated Press

Africa

Mali forces kill senior figure in Islamic State affiliate. Malian forces killed Abu Huzeifa, a commander of a West African Islamic State affiliate, during an operation in the northern region of Menaka. Huzeifa, who had a $5 million U.S. bounty for his role in a deadly 2017 attack in Niger, was confirmed dead on Sunday. Over the past decade, attacks by groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State have killed thousands of people in Mali, Niger, and neighboring Burkina Faso, destabilizing West Africa's central Sahel region. As of March, the protracted security and humanitarian crisis had displaced over 3 million people in the region, according to the International Organization for Migration. Reuters

Russia envoy meets Sudan army commander.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov visited Sudan on Monday to show support for the Sudanese army, which is at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Bogdanov met with the Sudanese Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Port Sudan and expressed support for Sudan’s existing Sovereign Council.  He also indicated Russia is willing to increase cooperation in Sudan if necessary.  There had been uncertainty around Russia's allegiances in Sudan due to ties with RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and reports of Russian private military group Wagner's involvement in illicit gold mining and spreading disinformation in the country, though Wagner claimed last year that it was no longer operating in Sudan.  Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

CISA issues guidelines for critical infrastructure owners on AI usage.  CISA issued safety and security guidelines for critical infrastructure on Monday, completing CISA’s tasks mandated by the Biden administration’s executive order on AI in October.  The CISA guidelines follow the announcement by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on the creation of a safety and security board for critical infrastructure.  CISA offers direction for operators and owners of critical infrastructure in governing, mapping, measuring, and managing their use of AI in both capitalizing on its benefits and avoiding its risks and misuse.  Among other tasks, the guidelines encourage critical infrastructure owners to create AI security risk procedures as well as continuous AI vulnerability testing.  FedScoop

Austria raises alarm on autonomous weapons in global gathering on regulation.  Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg told a conference on the use of AI in weapons systems that “now is the time to agree on international rules and norms to ensure human control."  Addressing a gathering in Vienna on Monday with representatives of 143 countries and a variety of NGO’s, Schallenberg appealed to “let us at least make sure that the most profound and far-reaching decision, who lives and who dies, remains in the hands of humans and not of machines."  The conference, "Humanity at the Crossroads: Autonomous Weapons Systems and the Challenge of Regulation,” is aimed at reviving interest in talks on AI in weapons that have stalled recently.  Mirjana Spoljaric, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, told a conference panel session that in the face of “moral failures” in the international community "we do not want to see such failures accelerating by giving the responsibility for violence, for the control over violence, over to machines and algorithms."  Alexander Kmentt, Austria’s top disarmament official, noted that “the easy availability of autonomous weapons removes limitations that ensured only a few could enter the arms race.  …Autonomous weapons systems have forever changed the concept of international stability.”  Reuters Bloomberg

Second world AI safety summit in Seoul faces issues on AI development sustainability.  The virtual AI safety summit to be hosted by South Korea in May is facing vexing questions about the technology’s development as well as flagging interest among tech leaders and organizations.  Martha Bennett, a research analyst at the Forrester consulting firm, said the coming meeting in Seoul will experience "some radically different approaches” from the initial safety summit in the U.K., adding “it will be difficult to move beyond what was agreed at Bletchley Park."  New issues to be confronted include the use of copyright material, the shrinking repositories of fresh data, and the environmental impact of AI energy demands.  Also, it has been reported that key attendees at the Bletchley conference have declined invitations to South Korea.  Francine Bennett, interim director of the data and AI-focused Ada Lovelace Institute, noted that global discussions of AI have shifted from “existential risk” to pragmatic questions concerning resources needed to sustain AI’s development, centering on data and electricity.    The May 21-22 summit in Seoul has been described as a “mini summit” preparing the way for a subsequent in-person gathering in Paris.  A British government spokesperson said the Seoul gathering will build on achievements of Bletchley Park “to deliver further progress on AI safety, innovation and inclusivity, moving us all closer to a world where AI is improving our lives across the board.”  Reuters

Motives remain murky for reorganization of Chinese Strategic Support Force.  Just two weeks ago, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) called a news conference to announce that the Strategic Support Force (SSF), which was created in 2015, was being disbanded and its responsibilities for cyber, aerospace, and electronic warfare reassigned.  A new organization, the Information Support Force (ISF), will assume a slice of the mission previously assigned to the SSF, although the exact nature of the ISF role is unclear.  What is known is that it will report directly to the Central Military Commission, indicating that it is a strategic resource.  PLA spokesperson Wu Qian also described the creation of a separate Military Aerospace Force (MAF) and Network Space Force (NSF), both of which will also report to the CMC.  However, the respective responsibilities of the ISF and the NSF for cyber, network, and information support were not described.  The three new support forces join the Joint Logistic Support Force as “branches” alongside the four services the PLA Ground Forces, PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, and PLA Rocket Force.  BreakingDefense DefenseOne

Outpacing U.S., China official notes plan to return Mars surface samples around 2030.  Wu Weiren, the lead designer of China’s lunar exploration program, said China could be the first nation to return from Mars with surface samples, outpacing the U.S.  Wu told a space conference in Wuhan that the country’s Tianwen-3 spacecraft will be launched in the 2030 timeframe on a Mars sample return mission.  He said “we are expected to become the first country to deliver samples from Mars,” adding that China has begun planning for a project to create the world’s first Mars sample research facility.  NASA’s plan to return with Mars surface samples around 2030 has been delayed due to budget shifts.  A target date for a rescheduled mission has not been announced.  NASA’s Perseverance rover previously collected samples on the Mars surface that are awaiting a return mission to retrieve them.  South China Morning Post The Cipher Brief

UK becomes first country to ban weak default passwords on IoT devices.  Britain became the first country in the world to outlaw default guessable usernames and passwords from “Internet-of-Things” (IoT) devices such as sensors and data-sharing apps found in “smart” cars, doorbells, and appliances.  In addition, new minimum-security standards for manufacturers and their security communications with consumers have been defined by the Product Security and Telecommunications Infrastructure Act (PSTI).  The PSTI bans weak or easily guessable default passwords such as “admin” or “12345” and requires manufacturers to publish contact details so users can report bugs.  Viscount Camrose, the U.K. government minister for cyber, said that consumers immediately “will have greater peace of mind that their smart devices are protected from cyber criminals, as we introduce world-first laws that will make sure their personal privacy, data and finances are safe.”  Sarah Lyons of the National Cyber Security Centre said the new law represents a “landmark” designed to help consumers make informed decisions about IoT devices.  The Record   Cybernews

E.U. probe of Meta content related to Russian disinformation expected this week.  The European Commission plans to examine Facebook and Instagram operations to counteract disinformation amid concerns the platforms are falling short in content moderation.  E.U. regulators reportedly believe Meta’s scrutiny of Russian political content aimed at undermining European elections is inadequate, although a forthcoming Commission statement is not expected to identify Russia specifically.  Officials also say Meta’s mechanism that enables users to flag illegal content is unwieldly and does not comply with the E.U. Digital Services Act (DSA).   Meta reportedly will be given five days to respond to the commission’s findings or face penalties defined by the DSA.  Meta described its methods of identifying and mitigating content risks as “well established” and said it will continue “our cooperation with the European Commission and providing them with further details of this work.”  Financial Times

New Huawei phone signals supply chain recovery, role in U.S-China tech war.  The new Huawei smartphone, Pura 70, is powered by an in-house-designed chip manufactured by leading Chinese chip foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) using its 7nm N+2 mode.  The 5G-capable Pura 70 is expected to ship more than 10 million units around the world this year.  Observers say the new phone signals that Huawei may have overcome obstacles in its semiconductor supply chain by turning to local chip producers. Dan Hutcheson, vice-chairman of the TechInsights research company, said “Huawei has totally broken free from U.S. sanctions in China’s markets.  But it’s still being held back by U.S. sanctions in world markets.”  A Bloomberg profile says Huawei’s success raises questions about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and export controls to contain China’s technological and economic clout.  Bloomberg reports that the Biden administration is considering ways to engage its allies in a “broader containment campaign.”  South China Morning Post  Bloomberg

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