Report for Tuesday, April 2, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Iranian consulate in Damascus hit by what Tehran said was Israeli air strike

Israeli airstrike kills seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza

Ukrainian drones hit Russia's third biggest oil refinery

North Korea fires suspected ballistic missile

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Former Navy Commander on How to Stop the Houthis.

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Ten Answers to Skeptic's Questions on Ukraine.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — When Climate Change is a National Security Issue.

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Iranian consulate in Damascus flattened in what Tehran said was Israeli air strike.  The Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus was hit by what Iranian and Syrian media described as an Israeli air strike on Monday.  Iran’s ambassador to Syria said the consulate was struck by six missiles launched by F-35 jets, killing seven people.  The New York Times reported that a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said the supposed strike targeted a secret meeting of Iranian intelligence officials and Palestinian militants, including leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, to discuss the Gaza war.

Iranian state TV said several Iranian diplomats were killed, along with Gen. Mohamad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force. Zahedi reportedly oversaw Iran’s covert military operations in Syria and Lebanon and would have been a key figure in Tehran’s ties with Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Gen Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi,  Zahedi’s deputy in the Quds Force, and five other officers were also killed, according to the Associated Press.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, strongly condemned the attack as a violation of diplomatic norms and international treaties.  “Netanyahu has lost his mental balance because he has faced back to back defeat in Gaza and has not achieved the Zionists’ ambitious goals,” he said.  Experts and officials say Iran will be pressed to respond, but it is unclear how Tehran will do so while seeking to avoid all-out conflict with Israel.  An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said: “Tehran will decide on the type of response and punishment against the aggressor.”  The Israeli government, as usual, did not comment on the incident.  However, according to the AP, an Israeli military spokesman blamed Iran for a drone attack early Monday against a naval base in southern Israel.  The U.S. reportedly told Iran it had no involvement or advanced knowledge of the attack.   Reuters Reuters New York Times Washington Post Times of Israel Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Associated Press  

Seven World Central Kitchen aid workers killed by airstrike in Gaza.  The World Central Kitchen said Tuesday that an Israeli airstrike killed seven aid workers, including a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada, at least one Palestinian worker, and nationals from Australia, Poland and the United Kingdom.  The food aid nonprofit started by celebrity chef José Andrés said that it was immediately halting its operations in Gaza.  U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement,“We are heartbroken and deeply troubled,” and she urged Israel to “swiftly investigate what happened.”  

According to a WKC press release issued early Tuesday, W K members were traveling in a convoy that included two armored cars with the WCK logo.  “Despite coordinating movements with the IDF, the convoy was hit as it was leaving the Deir al-Balah warehouse, where the team had unloaded more than 100 tons of humanitarian food aid brought to Gaza on the maritime route,” WCK said. “This is not only an attack against WCK, this is an attack on humanitarian organizations showing up in the most dire of situations where food is being used as a weapon of war. This is unforgivable,” World Central Kitchen CEO Erin Gore said. “I am heartbroken and appalled that we — World Central Kitchen and the world — lost beautiful lives today because of a targeted attack by the IDF.”

Footage distributed by Reuters showed a white vehicle marked with the group’s logo on its roof, with a hole half of the width of the car. The Associated Press reported that video footage showed bodies of the five dead, several wearing gear with the charity’s logo. “I am heartbroken and grieving for their families and friends and our whole WCK family,” Andrés said in a tweet.  “These are people…angels…I served alongside in Ukraine, Gaza, Turkey, Morocco, Bahamas, Indonesia. They are not faceless…they are not nameless. The Israeli government needs to stop this indiscriminate killing. It needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon. No more innocent lives lost. Peace starts with our shared humanity. It needs to start now.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday acknowledged that the aid workers were killed by an “unintended strike” by Israeli forces.  Both he and the Israel Defense Forces said thorough investigations into the matter will be conducted.  “The IDF makes extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid, and has been working closely with WCK in their vital efforts to provide food and humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,” the IDF said in a statement on the messaging platform Telegram.   Washington Post Washington Post  Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera New York Times World Central Kitchen José Andrés/X

Israeli officials agree to listen to U.S. concerns on planned ground offensive in Rafah.   Meeting virtually via a secure video conference Monday, U.S. and Israeli officials had a “constructive engagement on Rafah,” a joint statement about the meeting said.  It added, “They agreed that they share the objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah.  The U.S. side expressed its concerns with various courses of action in Rafah.  The Israeli side agreed to take these concerns into account and to have follow up discussions between experts.”  The next meeting, the joint statement said,  “would include in person SCG [Israeli Strategic Consultative Group] meeting as early as next week.”  Translation: the White House bought some time.  President Joe Biden and his national security team are working to convince the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to mount an all-out,scorched earth ground offensive in southern Gaza without a plan to protect the over 1 million Palestinian civilians in Rafah, mostly displaced from their homes further north.  The White House and Pentagon are trying to sell Netanyahu and his circle that Hamas can be disabled in ways that are less dangerous to civilians,  for instance, with targeted commando operations instead of broad-scale bombing.  Reuters The White House

Cairo cease-fire talks focus on whether Gaza civilians can go home again.  As Israeli and Arab negotiators gathered in Cairo this week, one major sticking point is the Hamas demand that Palestinians displaced from northern Gaza be allowed to return to their homes, without restrictions.  Israeli officials, fearful that Hamas will fade into the civilian population, are insisting on restricting who can return and where they can go.  An Israeli official said Israel wanted to prevent  Hamas operatives and “fighting-age men” from returning to the north, where Hamas fighters are still exchanging fire with the Israeli military.  New York Times

Analysis - Israel has cleared Hamas from Al-Shifa Hospital twice, so far.   Last November, Israel’s military declared Al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza’s biggest medical facility, cleared of Hamas and withdrew.  It didn’t stay cleared.  On March 18, Israeli soldiers raided Al-Shifa again.  The long bloody campaign, led by Shayetet 13, Israel’s equivalent of the U.S. Navy SEALs, ended Monday. Israel says its forces arrested or killed hundreds of militants and gathered significant intelligence. The Israeli military also destroyed more of the hospital, traumatized patients, and detained medical personnel. The Wall Street Journal describes how the Al-Shifa dilemma demonstrates vividly the challenge for Israel of defeating an insurgency without another armed group to control territory.   Wall Street Journal 

U.S. may sell jets and missiles to Israel.  The Biden administration is considering selling Israel up to 50 new F-15 fighter jets, worth $18 billion;  30 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and a number of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which turn dumb bombs into precision-guided weapons, Politico reported Monday. A U.S. official said the fighter jets couldn’t be delivered before 2029, but Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who visited Washington last week, urged the administration to expedite the transaction, evidently out of concern that the low-level war with Hezbollah in Lebanon may heat up. The administration has been advising Congress of the likely approval of the arms package, as required by law.  Politico Reuters The Hill

Israel moves to throw Al Jazeera out of Israel.  Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to shut down news network Al Jazeera inside Israel after the Knesset voted 71 to 10 Monday to enact a sweeping law allowing the government to ban foreign networks perceived as posing a threat to national security.  Netanyahu said he would “act immediately in accordance with the new law” to close down the Israel-based operations of Al Jazeera, based in Qatar.  Al Jazeera said it would not stop its “bold and professional coverage” of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.  In Washington, the White House took Al Jazeera’s side.  “We believe in the freedom of the press,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in Monday’s briefing.  “It is critically important. The United States supports the critically important work journalists around the world do, and that includes those who are reporting on the conflict in Gaza. If those reports are true, it is concerning to us.”  The Hill Al Jazeera Times of Israel CNN Reuters  

Palestinians want U.N. Security Council to vote this month for full membership.  The Palestinian Authority wants the U.N. Security Council to vote this month to make it a full member.  The move can be blocked by Israel's ally the United States. Riyad Mansour, who has permanent observer status in the U.N., made the Palestinian plans public as the war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza nears a six-month milestone and Israel is expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Ten Answers to Skeptic's Questions on Ukraine.

Russia’s third biggest oil refinery hit by Ukrainian drone.  Russia’s third largest oil refinery, Taneco, was hit in an apparent attack by Ukrainian drones on Tuesday.  The refinery is 800 miles away from the front lines in Ukraine.  A Reuters analysis of images posted on media showed that a drone hit the refinery’s primary CDU-7 oil refining unit, which accounts for half of the plant’s total annual production capacity of over 17 million tons (340,000 bpd).  Russian media said that a fire broke out from the attack, but it was extinguished and production was not impacted.  The apparent attack was one of several in Russia’s Tatarstan region, south-east of Moscow, on Tuesday.  A Ukrainian source said another drone strike hit a facility producing long-range “Shahed” drones.  Ukraine has launched a series of drone strikes in Russia over recent months, which have mostly targeted the Russian oil and gas industry.  Reuters CNN 

Russia and Ukraine trade drone claims over the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine reported downing each other's drones on Monday over the Black Sea. Russia claimed to have intercepted six Ukrainian drones, while Ukraine's Air Force said they downed a sophisticated Russian "Forpost" drone valued at $8 million. Increased drone reconnaissance activities were reported, with Ukraine observing over 200 drones in a single day. Amid these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the importance of expanding domestic drone production to support their defense efforts, setting a target of one million drones by 2024. Reuters

Russia attacks Ukraine with 10 drones overnight, causing fires. Ukraine said on Tuesday it had intercepted nine out of 10 Russian Shahed-type drones launched overnight from Russian-occupied Crimea, with attacks targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts. Debris in Dnipro caused two fires, damaging buildings, while a drone attack set an energy facility in Kirovohrad ablaze. Additionally, a Kh-59 cruise missile was fired from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. No casualties were reported. These incidents are part of Moscow's escalated missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure, including significant attacks on March 22 and 29.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine has attack drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers, says Fedorov. Ukraine is producing attack drones with a range of over 1,000 kilometers, and it is aiming to build 1 million units this year, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview with Welt  on Monday. Ukraine is leveraging advancements in drone technology, including the development of AI-equipped models. Fedorov added in the interview that the outcome of the war will likely depend on drone technology, but at present it is impossible to say if Russia or Ukraine has the upper hand.  President Volodymyr Zelensky has established a new Unmanned Systems Forces branch focused on drones, aiming to surpass Russia in drone production and innovation. Kyiv Independent

Luhansk car bomb kills Russia-appointed official.  A car bomb killed Moscow-appointed official Valeriy Chaika in the Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast city of Staroblisk on Monday.  Russia’s Investigative Committee said it is investigating the incident, which it referred to as a “terrorist act.”  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says Russia has fired five Zircon missiles at Kyiv this year.  Since the start of the year, Russia has launched five hypersonic Zircon missiles at Kyiv, as part of over 180 missile and drone attacks on the Ukrainian capital, according to Kyiv's military administration. These sea-based Zircon missiles, which travel at nine times the speed of sound, reduce reaction times for air defenses and can hit large, hardened targets. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the use of Zircons in combat, highlighting their role in Russia's advanced weapons arsenal. Additionally, Kyiv faced attacks from other missile types, including 113 air-launched Kh-101 missiles and 11 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, amidst Russia's intensified bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure. Reuters

Pentagon says North Korea continues to supply weapons to Russia.  The Pentagon reported on Monday that North Korea remains a significant weapons supplier for Russia, sending ballistic missiles and over 3 million artillery shells to support Russia's war in Ukraine. This partnership has been flourishing, with North Korea's military contributions, including the confirmed use of its ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukrainian cities such as Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, highlighting the growing alliance between North Korea and Russia.  Kyiv Independent

Swedish defense minister talks about stepping up Ukraine aid and a new era in European security. In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, Sweden's Defense Minister Pal Jonson discusses Sweden's NATO membership, heightened European security concerns and increased aid to Ukraine. Sweden joined NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, enhancing regional security. Despite not yet being fully integrated into NATO's defense planning, Sweden actively supports Ukraine, offering advanced military equipment and aid packages. Sweden collaborates with the Czech Republic to expedite artillery shell delivery and invests in increasing ammunition production. Jonson addressed potential joint production initiatives with Ukraine, including drones and vehicles. Deliberations continue regarding providing Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent

France wants China to send ‘clear messages’ to Russia over Ukraine war.  French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné urged China to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine war, highlighting China's significant role in upholding international law and Ukraine's sovereignty. Séjourné's remarks, made in Beijing alongside Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, come ahead of a planned meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Despite claiming neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, China has deepened ties with Russia, advocating for negotiation over military confrontation and proposing to mediate future peace talks.  Politico

Kharkiv reconstruction requires over $10 billion. Kharkiv's Mayor Ihor Terekhov said on Monday that over $10 billion is needed to rebuild the city, which has been heavily damaged by Russian attacks. Highlighting the international aid sought to manage the financial burden, Terekhov criticized Russia's claim of targeting only military sites, labeling the continuous assaults as evidence of genocide. The attacks have severely impacted Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, destroying a thermal power plant and many electrical substations, putting immense strain on the city.  Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid.  Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, writes that Russian drone and missile strikes since March 22 have extensively damaged Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with attacks on almost all thermal power plants and substations, rendering two major thermal power plants inoperable and causing widespread blackouts. The destruction will require costly, multi-year repairs and has led to an early end to the heating season by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Additionally, the strikes targeted natural gas storage facilities and the Dnipro Hydroelectric Dam, risking an ecological disaster and the loss of grid connectivity at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. These actions mark a significant escalation in the conflict and pose a substantial threat to Ukraine's energy grid and environmental safety. The attacks underscore Kyiv’s desperate need for adequate air defense systems so Ukraine can protect its power plants from Russian assaults.  Atlantic Council 

Belarus holds military drills near borders with EU, Ukraine. Belarus initiated military drills in regions bordering Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland, focusing on defense training and actions under martial law, amid deteriorating relations with the West and Ukraine since Russia's 2022 invasion of Kyiv from Belarusian territory.  Reuters

Ukrainian defense attorneys face moral dilemma in war crime trials. Over 200 Ukrainian attorneys, including Khrystyna Vrashchuk, face moral challenges defending suspected Russian war criminals and collaborators. Despite the difficulty of representing individuals accused of severe crimes during the Kremlin’s ongoing war, they uphold the rule of law by ensuring legal representation for all suspects. "We approach this job cold-blooded: the law above all else," Vrashchuk said. Ukraine is investigating over 120,000 alleged war crimes since the 2022 invasion, with the courts having convicted at least 81 individuals, mostly in absentia. This commitment to justice highlights the complexities and ethical dilemmas faced by lawyers in wartime.  Reuters

The Americas

Lawmakers urge Biden to call out more Chinese biotech firms. A bipartisan pair of U.S. lawmakers are calling for the Biden Administration to add seven Chinese biotech companies to a Defense Department list highlighting firms allegedly cooperating with Beijing's military. In a letter dated March 29th, Republican Representative Michael Gallagher and Democratic Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi called on Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to take this action, citing concerns that China could leverage biotechnology to bolster its military capabilities. The pair, who Chair the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, warned of risks that China could “create synthetic pathogens” to gain military advantage.  Reuters Defense News

Johnson outlines plan for Ukraine aid; House could act within weeks.  House Speaker Mike Johnson has begun outlining potential conditions for approving additional U.S. military aid to Ukraine, signaling his intent to advance a package that many Republicans have tried to block. Johnson's terms may include tying the aid to a measure forcing President Joe Biden to lift a moratorium on new permits for liquefied natural gas export facilities, viewed by Republicans as a victory against Biden's climate agenda and a boost for a proposed export terminal in Johnson's home state of Louisiana. While openly discussing structuring the aid, Johnson cited the REPO Act, which would fund some aid by selling off frozen Russian oligarch assets, as an idea under consideration, saying that “if we can use the seized assets of Russian oligarchs to allow the Ukrainians to fight them, that's just pure poetry.” Johnsojn has also raised providing aid through loans.  Johnson said he has not finalized decisions but has been “working to build that consensus” among House Republicans.  New York Times The Guardian Politico 

Top Russian official says U.S. dictates NATO spending.  Nikolai Patrushev, a senior Russian Security Council official, claimed the U.S. is exploiting NATO alliances to impose economic and military obligations on its partners, dictating the purchase of specific weapons and equipment. He accused the U.S. and Britain of using Russophobia to bind NATO states economically, boosting their military-industrial complex's profits. Patrushev highlighted the continuous increase in NATO's defense spending, which he views as an effort to maintain Ukraine as an anti-Russia territory and intensify military presence along Russia's borders, reflecting ongoing tensions and strategic positioning in the region. Reuters

US defense official had ‘Havana syndrome’ symptoms during a 2023 NATO summit, the Pentagon confirms.  A senior Defense Department official experienced symptoms of "Havana Syndrome" during the 2023 NATO summit in Lithuania, the Pentagon confirmed. Havana Syndrome, with reported symptoms including head pressure and dizziness, has affected U.S. diplomats and spies across the world since 2016. A "60 Minutes" investigative report suggested Russia's involvement, though the Pentagon deferred to the intelligence community for investigation on the source of the ailment. The U.S. intelligence community's broad consensus since March 2023 deems it unlikely a foreign adversary is responsible for these health incidents. Controversy remains around the syndrome's existence and cause, with no definitive evidence of brain injuries found in affected personnel. The Kremlin dismissed a report implicating Russian military intelligence in the “Havana syndrome” ailment.  Associated Press

Former CENTCOM Commander warns of ISIS radicalization online, terror attacks targeting U.S. Gen. Frank McKenzie (Ret.), former commander of CENTCOM, has warned that online radicalization by ISIS-K poses a significant threat of future terrorist attacks in the wake of last week's terror attack in Moscow, which the group claimed responsibility for.  McKenzie cautioned that “self-radicalization” enabled by internet access could prove one of the most dangerous tactics employed by ISIS-K to inspire attacks. He added that ISIS-K has a “strong desire” to hit the U.S. and that the Biden administration should believe the threat.  In a recent press briefing, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that “The Department of Defense has not taken its eye off of ISIS,” asserting that authorities remain vigilant against the threat posed by the group. The Hill The Hill

[shortcode-ExpertComment comment="If you can keep pressure on [ISIS-K] in their homeland and their base, it makes it hard for them to conduct these types of attacks. Unfortunately, we no longer place that pressure on them, so they’re free to gain strength, they’re free to plan, they’re free to coordinate… In Afghanistan, we have almost no ability to see into that country and almost no ability to strike into that country. And so, ISIS there is able to grow unabated. There is no pressure on them." text-source="ABC News "This Week"" expert-slug="gen-frank-mckenzie-ret" expert-id="2270274862"]

US-India ties not damaged by murder plot probe, ambassador says. The U.S. Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, said he is pleased with India's progress investigating an alleged plot to assassinate a Sikh activist last year, stating the issue would not impede relations between the two nations. Garcetti welcomed India's establishment of an inquiry commission led by senior law enforcement officials to “uncover any evidence” of a “murder-for-hire plot that included anybody who was from the Indian government.” Despite the allegations, both countries have sought to downplay the significance, continuing high-profile meetings on trade and other matters since the case emerged.  Bloomberg 

US anti-Muslim incidents hit record high in 2023 due to Israel-Gaza war. In 2023, discrimination and attacks against Muslims and Palestinians in the U.S. surged to a record high, particularly during the Israel-Gaza conflict. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) reported 8,061 complaints, a 56% increase from the previous year, with a significant spike in the last quarter. Notable incidents included fatal attacks on Palestinian Americans. The rise in Islamophobia and anti-Palestinian bias coincided with escalated violence in the Middle East, leading to an increase in immigration, employment, hate crimes, and education discrimination complaints in the U.S. Reuters

US guns flow into Haiti as gangs push to take control. Haiti's criminal gangs are armed with their arsenal of weapons largely flowing from the U.S., ranging from handguns to belt-fed machine guns and Barrett .50-caliber sniper rifles. Investigators in the U.S. and Haiti say the gangs often obtain these arms through straw buyers at American gun stores, with the weapons smuggled into the country piecemeal or disassembled among shipments of food, clothing, and used cars. The gangs’ increasingly sophisticated armories include everything from 9mm handguns to 7.62mm semiautomatic rifles favored by insurgent groups worldwide, according to the Haitian National Police and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations.  Wall Street Journal 

Argentina and Colombia to mend ties following Milei 'terrorist' comments. Argentina and Colombia are working to mend diplomatic relations after a rift caused by Argentine President Javier Milei's offensive remarks towards Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Following Milei's comments, which labeled Petro a "terrorist murderer" due to his past involvement with the M-19 guerrilla movement, Colombia expelled Argentine diplomats. Both countries have now agreed to return their ambassadors and have taken steps to strengthen their relationship, despite historical stability being tested by Milei's comments since his office began in December. "The respective governments have taken concrete steps to overcome any differences and strengthen this relationship," the joint statement from the two nations' foreign ministries said on Sunday. Reuters Associated Press

A candidate for mayor of a violent city in Mexico has been killed as she began campaigning. Bertha Gaytán, a mayoral candidate in Guanajuato, Mexico, was fatally shot, marking the latest in a series of violent incidents targeting political figures ahead of the country's June 2 elections. Guanajuato, known for its high homicide rate and violent turf wars between drug cartels, has become one of the most dangerous regions for police officers in North America. In Guanajuato state, with its population just over 6 million, more police were shot to death in 2023 — about 60 — than in all of the United States. The assassination of the mayoral candidate  underscores the broader issue of violence against politicians in Mexico, with at least 14 candidates killed since the start of 2024.  Associated Press

Gunmen in Ecuador kill 9, injure 10 others in attack in coastal city of Guayaquil as violence surges. In Guayaquil, Ecuador, gunmen killed nine and injured 10 in a southern neighborhood, continuing a wave of violence in the country. The assailants opened fire on people engaging in sports. No group has claimed the attack. This incident follows recent violent acts, including a mass killing in Manabi province and escalating attacks linked to drug trafficking. President Daniel Noboa's response includes a state of emergency and a curfew in high-incidence areas, addressing Ecuador's surge in violent deaths, now among the region's highest. Associated Press 

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — When Climate Change is a National Security Issue.

Asia and Oceania

North Korea fires ballistic missile.  North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast on Tuesday, according to South Korea’s military.  The missile appeared to have been launched from an area in the capital Pyongyang and flew around 372 miles.  South Korea did not specify the exact missile fired, but North Korea has been testing a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile powered by a solid-fuel engine.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the North was seeking to sow instability ahead of the South’s parliamentary elections this month.  Japan condemned the missile launch as damaging to regional and international peace, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the launch was unlawful and destabilizing.  The launch came the same day that South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. conducted air drills involving a U.S. B-52H strategic bomber, highlighting increased trilateral cooperation.  The three countries are reportedly planning a trilateral summit in July.  NBC News Reuters Al Jazeera  Japan Times  Associated Press 

New Indonesia leader visits China, promises close ties. Indonesia's president-elect Prabowo Subianto took his first overseas trip since winning the election by visiting Beijing, signaling his intention to sustain close ties with China cultivated under his predecessor Joko Widodo. During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, Prabowo was quoted by Chinese state media as having said that he “fully supports the development of closer Indonesia-China relations” and aims “to continue President Joko's policy of friendship with China.” He further said his new government will promote aligning development strategies between the two nations and drive greater cooperation across economic, trade, and poverty alleviation initiatives.  Prabowo will continue his trip abroad to Japan.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg  

Philippines, U.S. top security officials discuss Beijing tensions in South China Sea.  Philippine National Security Advisor Eduardo Ano held a phone call with his U.S. counterpart on Monday to discuss “coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions” by China in the South China Sea and to express appreciation for Washington’s support for Manila.  The call came amid increased heated rhetoric between China and the Philippines over maritime incidents in disputed waters.  Reuters

Europe

Blinken in Paris after Gaza NGO attack, French U.N. push.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Paris for talks on the Middle East and Ukraine.  Blinken will meet with Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and visit a weapons factor providing howitzers for Ukraine, before meeting Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne and President Emmanuel Macron.  Blinken will then head to Brussels for a NATO ministerial meeting on Wednesday.  Reuters 

Hackers stole Russian prisoner database to avenge death of Navalny. Hours after opposition leader Alexey Navalny's death in a Russian prison in February, a group of anti-Kremlin hackers launched a retaliatory cyberattack and breached a computer network tied to Russia's prison system. The hackers put a photo on the prison contractor's website saying “Long live Alexey Navalny!”, while also allegedly stealing a database containing information on hundreds of thousands of Russian prisoners and their relatives. The multinational hacker group says they are sharing contact details and data from the hack “in the hope that somebody can contact them and help understand what happened to Navalny.” In a more recent breach, the hackers exploited the prison system's online commissary to change the prices of food items to roughly $0.01 each, as shown in screenshots and purchase videos they posted.  CNN

Russian court extends detention of Radio Free Europe reporter.  Alsu Kurmasheva, a dual U.S.-Russian national and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist, has had her detention in Russia extended until June 5 by a Kazan court. Detained last year while visiting her sick mother, she faces charges of failing to register as a foreign agent and disseminating false information about the Russian military, related to her work on a book criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Kurmasheva, who could face up to 15 years in prison if convicted, reported poor physical health and minimal medical care in prison. Her case adds to the growing number of U.S. citizens detained in Russia amid deteriorating Moscow-Washington relations, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan, highlighting the tense political climate and the harsh use of Russia's foreign agent law against critics.  Wall Street Journal Associated Press

Chancellor says Austria needs to deter Russian infiltration after allegations of spying emerge. The arrest of former Austrian intelligence officer Egisto Ott for allegedly spying for Russia has prompted Chancellor Karl Nehammer to stress the need for heightened security measures to prevent Russian infiltration. Nehammer announced a National Security Council meeting to address and evaluate Austria's security stance in light of these serious allegations, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding the country from Russian espionage. Ott, accused of passing sensitive data to Russia, has denied any wrongdoing.  Associated Press Kyiv Independent

Jourová: Hungary isolated by Orbán's 'double game.’  European Union values commissioner Věra Jourová highlighted Hungary's isolation in Europe, largely due to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's close ties with Russia amid democratic backsliding. The EU has criticized Orbán for his illiberal domestic policies and his handshake with Russian President Vladimir Putin, questioning his loyalty to EU values. Despite unfreezing €10.2 billion for Hungary after judicial reforms, the EU is still withholding €19 billion, demanding further compliance. Orbán's Hungary faces EU sanctions under Article 7 for undermining democracy and LGBTQI rights. EUObserver

Russia looking to remove Taliban’s designation as terrorist organization.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Russia has important matters to discuss with the Afghan Taliban and that it is working to remove the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations.  Peskov said Moscow has to “resolve pressing issues” with the Taliban, possibly referring to the Moscow terror attack, which Islamic State Khorasan, the Afghan branch of IS, claimed responsibility for.  Reuters

Russia says working on visit by Venezuela's Maduro.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Russia is preparing for a visit by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.  Peskov said the visit is at “a high degree of preparation” and that the only thing that remains is to set a date for the trip.  Russia and Venezuela, two major oil-producing nations, have maintained close relations.  Reuters 

Middle East

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Former Navy Commander on How to Stop the Houthis.

Sullivan is traveling to Saudi Arabia for talks with MBS. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan is set to visit Saudi Arabia for discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on advancing Israel-Saudi normalization efforts. Despite recent regional tensions, talks have resumed, although no major breakthroughs are anticipated. Progress in normalization talks includes Saudi’s desire for a mutual defense pact and U.S. support for its civil nuclear program.  Reuters

After a huge setback in local elections, what is the way forward for Turkey’s Erdogan?  The significant victories of the opposition in Turkey's local elections Sunday raise the possibility that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party will adopt less polarizing policies. The center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained control of major cities like Istanbul and Ankara and won in traditionally conservative provinces, indicating a public desire for change. Analysts predict Erdogan might adopt a "normalization" strategy, including improving relations with NATO allies and adopting less antagonistic domestic policies. Despite Erdogan acknowledging the electoral setback, experts doubt radical changes in his conservative policies. The elections, reflecting discontent with the economic situation and high inflation, have altered Turkey's political landscape, positioning the CHP favorably for future contests. Erdogan has presided over Turkey for more than two decades — as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014.  Associated Press Washington Post

Africa

Mali political parties request elections after junta shuns transition promise. Political parties in Mali are asking for a timeline for presidential elections after the ruling military junta failed to organize polls within the promised 24-month transition period back to democratic rule. Mali has been under military rule since August 2020. While regional blocs have attempted to negotiate a transition, the interim government has stalled efforts, with Mali's current junta seizing power in a 2021 coup before pledging a 24-month transition from March 2022 to March 2024. Despite passing a new electoral law in June 2022, the junta announced last September it would postpone the February 2024 elections for technical reasons, meeting protests from political groups. With the March transition deadline now lapsed without a vote, Mali’s political parties are intensifying pressure on the junta to provide a concrete roadmap for restoring civilian rule through elections.  Reuters 

Congo appoints Judith Tuluka Suminwa as new prime minister.  President Felix Tshisekedi has appointed Judith Tuluka Suminwa as the first female Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Suminwa, previously a Minister of State for Planning, will replace Sama Lukonde who had been in office since 2021, according to an announcement by the presidency on Monday. Acknowledging the “great task” and “immense challenges” ahead, Suminwa stated she would proceed “with the support of the president of the republic and of everyone.” Bloomberg Associated Press  

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Microsoft, OpenAI plan data center to house ‘Stargate’ AI supercomputer.  Microsoft and OpenAI are collaborating on the development of a $100 billion data complex that will serve as home to an AI supercomputer known as Stargate.  The Information reported that Microsoft will finance the project, which is slated to be operational by 2028.  Reportedly, Stargate would become the fifth and final phase of the two companies’ plans to build several supercomputer facilities around the U.S.   The Stargate computer is regarded as critical to OpenAI’s development of new, more advanced successors to the ChatGPT AI product.  OpenAI's next major upgrade is expected in early 2025.  Microsoft reportedly also is developing a smaller, fourth-phase supercomputer for OpenAI scheduled to become operational in 2026.  Overall, the multi-phase project is expected to cost Microsoft $115 billion, more than three times Microsoft’s capital expenditures in 2023 for servers, buildings and other equipment.  Cybernews Gizmodo Forbes Reuters

Secretive Chinese R&D efforts seek options to advanced Western chip processes.  A Beijing-based technology firm has begun research on lithography systems in an effort to fabricate advanced chips without dependence on equipment from ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer.  According to sources, engineers with the Naura Technology Group have been directed to launch a research project on lithography systems, which is outside the company’s traditional focus on etching and film deposition.  However, a Naura spokesperson informed the South China Morning Post that the information was not accurate.  The Naura project reportedly is part of China’s broad efforts to develop domestic alternatives to restricted Western lithography systems.  Some progress has been made in the Chinese campaign, including a patent application by Huawei Technologies in March that described a technique known as self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP), which involves etching multiple lines on silicon wafers to increase transistor density and chip performance.  Combining SAQP with deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machines from Dutch giant ASML could enable China to make sophisticated 5-nanometer chips without the more advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools produced by ASML.  South China Morning Post

Debate continues over space as critical infrastructure amid PPD-21 rewrite.  As a rewrite proceeds of Presidential Policy Directive 21, which governs the security of U.S. critical infrastructure, a heated debate is under way among experts on whether systems in space should receive that designation, which currently they do not. The question Among the requirements for space to be deemed critical infrastructure is that a federal agency would need to be named to manage sector risks.  Also, an industry-led body would need to be created to act as intermediary between government and private firms on key issues, such as the threat of hackers against space assets.  Advocates of the critical infrastructure designation point to the center of gravity that would be created within the federal government for managing the increasingly vital economic and national security sector.  Sam Visner, board of directors chair at the Space Information Sharing and Analysis Center, points out that “there’s no agency at this point which is pressing for a national space system cybersecurity and resilience R&D strategy, which I think is something we very much need.”  Not everyone agrees.  Mike French, the vice president of space systems at the Aerospace Industries Association, wrote to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to warn against declaring space as critical infrastructure.  Any new designation, French said, would bring along new regulations while not adding necessary resources, resources that would have to “come out of normal appropriations to the agency that’s in charge.”  Even if PPD-21 does not declare a 17th critical infrastructure sector, other space-related initiatives have begun, including a policy proposal that would provide oversight of novel commercial space activities as well as cybersecurity standards for space systems.  CyberScoop

Malware implant in open source software utility triggers CISA warning.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Red Hat software firm issued an urgent alert Friday afternoon to warn of malicious code implanted in a popular Linux tool, XZ Utils.  According to Red Hat, the tool, which compresses large file formats into more manageable file sizes for file transfers, is used in almost all Linux distributions.  A CISA advisory on the malware threat recommended that developers and users transition to an uncompromised version of the software and report discovery of any infections to CISA.  Red Hat warned that the flaw opens the potential for a threat actor to conduct remote breaches and access entire systems.  Some experts believe the attempted compromise of XZ Utils is a sophisticated effort to target open source supply chains.  According to Anjana Rajan, assistant nation cyber director in the Office of the National Cyber Director, “this is like an insider threat in the open source ecosystem, which we haven’t really seen before.”  The Record BleepingComputer   Politico CISA

​​German official warns of growing AI-powered Russian disinformation.  A German Federal Foreign Office official has warned that Russian disinformation efforts to undermine European support for Ukraine have grown in scale, skill, and subtlety.  Ralf Beste, the chief of the Foreign Office culture and communications department, said the Russian campaigns reflect “an increase in sophistication and impact to what we have seen before.”  Beste also noted the expanding role of automated messaging in intensifying disinformation effectiveness and complicating efforts at detection.  He explained that “there is probably a lot going on we can’t even see. More and more conversations are happening in private…channels on Telegram and WhatsApp. It is very difficult to understand what is happening there.”   A component of Beste’s department spearheads German efforts to monitor and counter Russian information operations.  This year the communications department uncovered a public influence operation on the “X” platform, one of the biggest campaigns discovered to date.  More than 50,000 fake accounts generating up to 200,000 posts daily aimed at persuading readers that the government’s Ukraine aid was undermining German prosperity and risking nuclear war.  Beste drew attention to the role of AI, saying the technology is capable of creating “a de facto second world, not just fake pieces of information or fake films or pictures but an entire alternative information ecosystem.”  Financial Times

EU commissioner previews Europe-Japan advanced materials research agreement.  The EU commissioner for innovation and research told Nikkei that the EU and Japan plan to create a cooperation framework in April for the development of advanced materials for chips and EV batteries, among other applications.  The collaboration, according to EU Commissioner Iliana Ivanova, is part of a bilateral effort to reduce dependence on China.  Ivanona said “it makes a lot of sense to expand cooperation as like-minded partners” in materials R&D for renewable energy, mobility, construction and electronics.  The framework for the Dialogue on Advanced Materials will sponsor regular collaborative discussions primarily involving secretariats but also with the participation of Japanese and European entities involved in cutting-edge materials research.  A specific area for joint efforts is in the development of sodium-ion batteries, which do not use rare materials, a sector dominated by China.  Japan’s expertise in metallic nanoparticles is another area the EU hopes to tap into.  Nikkei Asia

AI developers face looming problem of not enough training data.  Researchers and AI tech executives are drawing attention to the fact that the Internet may not contain enough information to fuel their development plans.  Ever-larger stores of data are needed by leading firms such as OpenAI and Google to conduct training processes even as the limits of quality public data are being approached.  According to some experts, the industry could exhaust the supply of such data in as little as two years.  Alternative sources already are being investigated, such as OpenAI’s exploration of YouTube transcriptions as a source of training data for its next model, GPT-5.  AI-generated synthetic data also is being eyed as a potential data source, although researchers are wary of possible flaws.  Data shortages are described by Ari Morcos, an AI researcher, as “a frontier research problem.”  Pablo Villalobos, an AI researcher for Epoch, estimates that GPT-4 was trained on as many as 12 trillion tokens, words and parts of words used by models to formulate human-like expressions. Researchers estimate that an AI system like GPT-5 will need 60 trillion to 100 trillion tokens of data following the current growth trajectory.  Villalobos noted that using all the high-quality language and image data available could still fall short by 10 trillion to 20 trillion tokens or more.  Wall Street Journal

Private sector, government cybersecurity specialists hold joint exercise.  Cybersecurity experts from private sector firms joined government agencies last week to test their defenses against simulated cyberattacks.  Representatives from AT&T, Lumen Technologies, Southern Company, MasterCard, and Southern California Edison formed blue and red teams in drills of defensive and offensive capabilities.  The Tri-Sector Cyber Defense Exercise included staff from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), who led the red team that attempted to defeat system defenses.  It reportedly is the first cross-sector cybersecurity exercise to combine representatives of utility companies, financial organizations, telecommunications firms, and the U.S. government.  During the exercise, the red and blue teams launched and countered cyberattacks from fictitious adversaries in each of the sectors represented by the private sector participants.  Eric Goldstein, CISA executive assistant director for cybersecurity, explained that the agency’s role as the red team “is the same team that, every day, is deployed across the country to try to break into federal networks and entities across sectors to help them defend more effectively.”  Jason Lish, Lumen chief security officer, said some Lumen team members have scheduled follow-up exercises with other participants.  Wall Street Journal Axios

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief