Report for Tuesday, April 16, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel says Iran attack ‘will be met with a response,’ U.S. and allies warn against escalation

Ukraine blasts ‘double standard’ after allies rush to Israel’s defense

Ukraine accuses Russia of ‘false-flag’ operation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Johnson says House to vote on stalled aid for Israel, Ukraine

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ISRAEL WEIGHS RESPONSE TO IRAN ATTACK

Israel military chief says Iran attack ‘will be met with a response.’  On Monday, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said during a visit to Nevatim air base in southern Israel, a prime target of Iran’s weekend missile and drone attack, that the Iranian assault “will be met with a response.”  Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli army’s spokesman, said Israel will respond “at the time that we choose.” When, where and how that will happen is not clear.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet have been meeting steadily but have made no announcements.  The Israeli government is trying to calibrate its response to show strength without  igniting a regional war or alienating the U.S. and other allies whose assistance was vital to shooting down the aerial onslaught and who have called for restraint.  According to the Washington Post, Israeli leaders are discussing how to retaliate in a way that would send a message without a body count.  Options include a direct strike on a building in Tehran or a cyberattack. Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to make a target list. Associated Press  Haaretz   Wall Street Journal Washington Post Washington Post Politico

Biden, allies press Israel not to escalate against Iran. “Iran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, and we mounted an unprecedented military effort to defend it,” President Joe Biden said Monday, speaking during an Oval Office meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.  “Together with our partners we defeated that attack.” Key word: partners.  The Biden team’s message to Israel has been to quit while you’re ahead, because every nation that helped Israel defend itself from Iran wanted to see restraint.  If Israel retaliated against Iran, Biden and his aides underscored, the U.S. wouldn’t be there to help.  Nor would the U.K. and European allies.  “We are urging that they shouldn’t escalate,” Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron, told Sky News.  “This is a time to think with head as well as heart. To be smart as well as tough.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that “the right to self-defense means fending off an attack; retaliation is not a category in international law.” French President Emmanuel Macron said that France would work with allies to isolate Tehran by “increasing sanctions, increasing pressure on nuclear activities and then finding a path to peace in the region.” Importantly, Israel owed much to the Sunni Arab states, marshaled by the Biden national security team.  Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other Arab nations quietly shared intelligence, radar info, air space and in the case of Jordan, military assets. They are also calling for calm.  The Pentagon said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin likewise talked with counterparts across the Middle East and Europe to convey that the U.S. does not seek regional escalation.  CNN New York Times Wall Street Journal Reuters Reuters Bloomberg Times of Israel

Iran assures China it will lower the temperature in its conflict with Israel.  Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian assured his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Monday that Iran will refrain from escalating tensions with Israel.  “The current situation in the region is very sensitive, and the Iranian side is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation,” Amir-Abdollahian said in a phone call with Wang, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout. “The Islamic Republic of Iran advocates an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and supports China’s positive efforts to promote a ceasefire, restore peace in the region and strengthen cooperation among regional countries.”  Wang said that China strongly condemned the April 1 attack attributed to Israel and said it was a serious violation of international law and was unacceptable, according to the foreign ministry’s account. South China Morning Post Reuters 

U.S. troops in Middle East face potential risks after Iran attack on Israel.  The Pentagon is preparing for potential new threats to U.S. troops in the Middle East following Iran’s large-scale air assault on Israel.  While officials say no immediate threat to U.S. troops have been identified, there are concerns that any Israeli retaliation could escalate the crisis and end up involving U.S. forces.  Officials also note heightened increased risks for U.S. troops arriving for humanitarian missions in Gaza, though measures are being taken to bolster their security.  Coordination between U.S., Israeli, and other allied forces is critical to mitigate potential risks.  Politico The Hill CBS News

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION - Israel's Missile Defense Was Amazing. It'll Get Harder.  Adm. James Stavridis (Ret.), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and a Cipher Brief Expert, wrote in Bloomberg about the successful response to Iran’s attack on Israel.  Stavridis said the success can be attributed to the integration of exceptional technology in the “kill chain” for air defense, including major overhead sensors, close-in radars, and effective command-and-control systems.  Much of these defenses were jointly developed by the U.S. and Israel, and they were employed thanks to rigorous training and practice.  However, Stavridis highlights the need to continue advancing future defensive strategies, possibly involving high-energy lasers, electronic warfare, offensive cyber capabilities, new radars, and a space system for intelligence.  Despite repelling Iran’s attack, Stavridis calls for continued dedication to resources, innovation, and strategic planning to ensure air-defense dominance.  Bloomberg

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel postpone Rafah ground offensive.  Israeli leaders shelved their plan to launch a ground offensive into Rafah this week while the war cabinet considers how to respond to Iran’s weekend air attack on Israel.  The Israeli Air Force had planned on dropping leaflets on parts of the city on Monday. CNN reported that an Israeli official said Israel remains determined to move into Rafah to dismantle Hamas’s remaining battalions.  CNN   

Israeli military tells Palestinians not to return to north Gaza.   The Israeli military warned Palestinians Monday not to return to their homes in northern Gaza. The previous day, witnesses and medical officials said five Palestinians were killed when Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd of displaced Gazans trying to walk back to north Gaza.  Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled from the north when Israeli forces moved into the area after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.  Some 300,000 still there are on the brink of famine, according to the United Nations. Associated Press  

Israeli forces, armed settlers kill three Palestinians in West Bank.  Israeli forces killed Yazan Ishtayeh, a 17-year-old Palestinian, and wounded three other people during a military raid in Nablus Monday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said.  Later Monday, armed Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank shot dead two Palestinians.  Since Friday, eight Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces or armed settlers.  Reuters

Freed Palestian detainees claim Israelis abused them.   Israel released 150 Palestinians detained during military operations in Gaza on Monday.  Many of them say they suffered abuse and ill-treatment in Israeli jails.  The Israeli military has denied the allegations. The detainees, including two members of the Palestine Red Crescent Society who had been detained for 50 days, were released through the Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Gaza, border officials said.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine backers blast ‘double standard’ after allies rush to Israel’s defense. In response to the support Israel received from the U.S. and other allies against Iran's missile and drone attacks on Saturday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and his backers voiced frustration over the disparity in assistance provided to Ukraine, which has endured over two years of similar Russian attacks. “European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles," Zelensky wrote Monday in a post on X. Zelensky highlighted the effectiveness of the defense systems that protected Israeli skies. “Even if you cannot act the way you act in Israel, give us what we need, and we will do the rest of the job,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. Ukrainian officials say they need 26 Patriot systems, each costing over $1 billion. The country has four now. Each system would require scores of interceptor missiles.

Western powers have never offered to activate their own missile defense systems or send their own aircraft into Ukrainian skies to fend off Russia's threat. Deploying Western fighter jets to protect Ukraine from missile strikes, as was done for Israel, would lead to "dangerous escalation," UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on Monday.

Critics within pro-Ukrainian circles argue that the situation demonstrates a lack of political will. "I am sure that Ukraine will raise an argument that if one non-NATO country has been provided with air defense when attacked by a hostile adversary, why should Ukraine be treated differently? Given the dire and urgent situation that Ukraine now faces, that argument is rather convincing," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski wrote: “Now it would be useful to strengthen Israel’s antimissile defense and equip Ukraine with similar systems.”

The scale and improved accuracy of recent Russian attacks have unnerved Ukraine’s defenders. They say Kremlin forces now have better intelligence and fresh tactics in their campaign to destroy Ukraine’s power grid and crush its economy. At least 126 people were killed, and 478 more were injured in Russian strikes in March. Politico Associated Press Wall Street Journal Washington Post Washington Post New York Times Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Zelensky, Ukrainian commanders consider the front, weapons supplies. On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the challenges faced in key sectors such as Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk. Additionally, Zelensky’s discussions with military commanders included the necessity for enhanced electronic warfare capabilities and improved defenses to protect infrastructure against attacks. "It is clear that the madness in the Kremlin is still strong and the occupiers will try to intensify their advances," Zelensky said. Reuters

Russia restoring oil refining capacity knocked out by drones.  Russia has swiftly repaired key oil refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes, reducing idled capacity from 14% to 10% since late March. Despite challenges in obtaining Western technology, Russia has restarted refining units at various plants. The rapid recovery comes amid U.S. criticism of Ukrainian strikes for their destabilizing effect on global energy markets and the possibility of inviting harsh Russian retaliation.

Ukraine views these strikes as critical to increasing the costs of Russian aggression. Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. The concern among U.S. military planners is that the strikes do little to diminish Russia’s war-fighting abilities and have resulted in a massive Russian counterattack on Ukraine’s electricity grid. “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers.  Reuters Washington Post Kyiv Independent

Russia-Ukraine Black Sea shipping deal reportedly almost reached last month.  Russia and Ukraine reportedly nearly finalized a deal last month to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea. The agreement, mediated by Turkey and encouraged by the United Nations, aimed to protect merchant vessels in the region.  It was set for announcement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 30. However, Ukraine unexpectedly withdrew from the agreement for unclear reasons.  Turkey and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have been trying for months to get merchant shipping sailing more freely through the Black Sea, which in some areas has been turned into a naval war zone since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Black Sea is a key route for both Russia and Ukraine to get bulk products such as grain, fertilizer, and oil to world markets.  Turkey and the UN helped mediate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal struck in July 2022 that allowed the safe Black Sea export of nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukraine grain. Russia withdrew from the agreement in July 2023, complaining that its own exports faced serious obstacles.  Reuters

Ukraine says Russia planned ‘false flag’ attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya said to the UN Security Council that the recent drone attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant were part of a “well-planned false flag operation” by Russia.  He said the attacks and a supporting disinformation campaign aimed at justifying Russia’s occupation of the nuclear plant.  Moscow says Ukraine was behind the attacks, which Kyslytsya dismissed, saying the claim would mean “low-power close-range FPV-drones” breached the facility’s heavy defenses.  The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that attacks on the plant increase the risk of a major nuclear disaster.  Kyiv Independent Associated Press

The Cipher Brief spoke with German Galushchenko, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, at its second Kyiv Economic and Security Forum to discuss what’s at stake at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.  Read Ukraine’s Energy Minister: We Are Moving Towards a Nuclear Accident at The Cipher Brief.  No time to read? Watch the discussion on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel.

Blinken assures U.S. support of Black Sea allies as Ukraine urges military aid during conference.  U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on Monday reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the security and prosperity of Black Sea nations.  In an address to the Second Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia via video link, Blinken also reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine's defense against the Russian invasion. His Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, advocated for more artillery and air defense systems. “Today, there’s no other language Moscow understands better than the language of force,” he said. Kuleba also called for a NATO strategy in the Black Sea to diminish Russia’s “malign influence.” Associated Press

Germany in new push to get China behind Ukraine peace efforts. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany met on Monday with Chinese officials in a bid to persuade Beijing to reduce its economic support for Russia and to actively participate in peace negotiations to end Moscow’s war on Ukraine.  Scholz is on a three-day, three-city tour of China and met Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday.  Scholz appealed for China’s help by underscoring the war's violation of international law and regional stability. Despite Western skepticism over China's role due to its ongoing economic support to Russia, hope remains that China could influence a peaceful resolution. On the Ukraine crisis, Xi called for all parties to work together to restore peace as soon as possible and keep the conflict from spiraling out of control.  Wall Street Journal 

Czech PM: Allies contract first 180,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.  Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, writing in an op-ed published Monday in the Financial Times, said a Czech-led coalition has contracted to deliver the first 180,000 of a planned 300,000 artillery shells to Ukraine. The initiative, which has received funding from multiple countries, aims to address Ukraine's ammunition shortages. This effort is part of a broader strategy to establish a sustainable ammunition supply for Ukraine, potentially delivering up to 1.5 million rounds. Fiala wrote that the initiative’s “aim is to fill the ammunition gap, especially until Europe can produce enough ammunition on its own.” Kyiv Independent

European Commission approves $53 billion reform plan for Ukraine. On Monday, the European Commission approved the Ukraine Plan, a four-year reform and investment strategy that allocates up to €50 billion ($53 billion) from the European Union's Ukraine Facility. Two-thirds of the funds will be provided as loans and one-third as grants.  The support aims to assist Ukraine in managing its administration and supporting recovery amid Russia’s ongoing war.  Ukraine has committed to implementing reforms in areas like energy, agriculture, and public finances in exchange for the funds.  Regular payments, conditioned on success in reform, will continue through 2027.  "Ukraine's strategy for reforms and investments offers a solid basis to rebuild a more modern and prosperous Ukraine, on its path towards the EU," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. Kyiv Independent

Danish businesses will receive $43 million to support operations in Ukraine. Denmark has committed $43 million to encourage Danish companies to invest in Ukraine, Danish Business Minister Morten Bodskov said Monday. The funding is part of the Danish-Ukrainian Fund, established to promote private-sector investment and integrate Danish technology and innovation in Ukraine. Denmark has provided almost $9.5 billion in support to Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

US and allied navies study Ukraine’s Black Sea wins as they plan for future fights. Top U.S. and NATO naval leaders, including Admiral Stuart Munsch, discussed Ukraine's effective maritime strategies against the Russian Black Sea Fleet during Tuesday's NATO celebration aboard the USS Mount Whitney.  Ukraine, lacking a traditional navy, has notably degraded nearly a third of the Russian fleet using low-cost drones and advanced missiles. This success has restricted Russian naval movements, allowing vital grain shipments through the Black Sea. “They’ve also demonstrated how to put the Russians in such a box so that they no longer operate freely,” Munsch said. These tactics underline the potency of asymmetric maritime warfare and are being studied for broader application in potential conflicts like in the Taiwan Strait.  Stars and Stripes

The Americas

Johnson says the House will vote on stalled aid to Israel and Ukraine. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday announced plans to advance a national security spending package to support Israel, Ukraine, and Indo-Pacific allies. The proposed package, mirroring a Senate-passed $95 billion aid bill, would be split into three bills for separate votes: funding for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan with other allies, and a fourth vote on additional Republican-favored policies. Johnson said the earliest the House could consider these bills would be Friday if the legislative text was released by Tuesday. Despite uncertainty about the plan’s success, Johnson is pushing forward, highlighting the global importance of U.S. action. The plan also includes provisions for some aid to be repayable and proposes selling frozen Russian assets. “We know that the world is watching us to see how we react,” Johnson told reporters. “We have terrorists and tyrants and terrible leaders around the world like [Vladimir] Putin and Xi [Jinping] and in Iran, and they’re watching to see if America will stand up for its allies and our interests around the globe — and we will.” The bills do not include border security measures demanded by some House Republicans. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) labeled Johnson’s plan a “scam” and said she is against it but hasn’t said yet whether she will try to depose him. The Washington Post reported the possibility that border security measures would be included in the fourth bill. New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal Associated Press Reuters

Biden hosts Iraqi PM.  President Joe Biden hosted Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani at the White House on Monday.  Talks focused on U.S.-Iraqi relations and covered the increase in tensions after Iran’s attack on Israel.  Biden praised al-Sudani for making progress on improving Iraq’s economy, while the Iraqi leader urged Biden to bring a swift end to the Israel-Hamas war.  During al-Sudani’s visit, the State Department approved the potential sale of aircraft contractor logistics support and training to Iraq’s C-172 and AC/RC-208 aircraft fleet for an estimated $140 million, according to the Pentagon.  Associated Press State.gov Reuters

Biden hosts Czech PM.  President Joe BIden hosted Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala at the White House on Monday.  During the meeting, Biden called on Congress to approve new aid for both Israel and Ukraine.  Fiala backed this call and said Europe is also seeking to expand support for Kyiv.  Associated Press 

U.S. and Canada impose Belarus-linked sanctions.  The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Monday sanctioned 12 entities and 10 individuals linked to Belarus for supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine and assisting the evasion of Western sanctions. The new sanctions target state-owned enterprises and those involved in global arms networks, aiming to pressure the Alexander Lukashenko regime financially. Included in the designations are actions against individuals involved in an Iraq-based arms company. This move is part of a broader international effort, coordinated with the government of Canada, to curb the Belarusian regime's activities and punish the fraudulent 2020 presidential elections. Canada targeted 21 current and former senior government figures, including members of the security forces, public prosecutors, and members of the judiciary system, the foreign ministry said in a statement.  "These individuals have been involved or complicit in arbitrary arrests and detentions, brutality, intimidation, and excessive use of force against Belarusians who protested the fraudulent elections," it said. US Department of the Treasury Reuters Kyiv Independent

Homeland Security investigative agency seeks rebrand, without ICE.  The investigative arm of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), is launching a new effort to distance itself from its parent agency, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).  HSI will debut its own website and own badge next week, and staff will receive new email addresses.  HSI will remain a branch of ICE but will emphasize its affiliation with DHS.  The rebranding effort comes as major U.S. cities adopt policies limiting cooperation with ICE, which is making it difficult for HSI investigators to work with police departments and public officials in jurisdictions with sanctuary policies.  Acting ICE Director Patrick J. Lechleitner said that HSI's new “independent branding” will allow its agents “to work without the undue toxicity that in some places comes with the ICE moniker.”  Washington Post

Military review into Kabul Airport bombing refutes claims troops sighted the would-be attacker.  A new review by U.S. Central Command into the Abbey Gate suicide bombing at the Kabul airport during the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan in August 2021 found that Maribes who survived the attack were mistaken in their belief that they had the attacker in their gun sights hours before the blast.  The review found that the Marines conflated vetted intelligence reports with unverified “spot reports.”  The issue was first raised by Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews in an interview and subsequent testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, where he claimed the Marines were disregarded and the suicide bomber was allowed to slip away. The attack, which killed 13 U.S. service members, was a low point in the hastily arranged airlift that ferried 124,000 people to safety as the Taliban swept into Kabul and the U.S.-backed government collapsed.  Stars and Stripes Washington Post

House to vote on China’s Iranian oil import. The U.S. House of Representatives on Monday approved legislation aimed at countering China's purchase of Iranian crude oil, as part of a package of bills being brought to the floor in response to Iran's attack on Israel. The Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act expands secondary sanctions against Iran to cover all transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase petroleum and petroleum products. The legislation also requires the U.S. to make an annual determination of whether Chinese financial institutions have engaged in sanctionable conduct, as about 80% of Iran's roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports is sent to independent refineries in China known as “teapots.”  Bloomberg 

Russian prosecutor general arrives in Cuba for bilateral talks.  Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov arrived in Havana for talks with his Cuban counterpart and other officials, according to the prosecutor’s office.  His visit comes after Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev’s tour of Latin American countries.  Moscow has shifted to countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America amid sanctions by the U.S. and Europe over its invasion of Ukraine.  Reuters

Cuba calls for end to U.S. sanctions to address migration issues.  Cuba is demanding the U.S. ease sanctions and end special treatment of Cubans illegally entering the U.S. at high level migration talks set to start on Tuesday.  The talks aim to promote safe, legal, and orderly migration between the countries.  Johana Tablada de la Torre, Cuba's deputy director for U.S. affairs, blamed migration challenges on U.S. sanctions and said that the Biden administration’s efforts to increase legal pathways for Cuban migration are not enough.  Reuters

U.S. warns of revoking license easing Venezuela oil sanctions.  A State Department spokesperson said on Monday that the U.S. will not renew a temporary license easing sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector unless President Nicolas Maduro demonstrates progress towards holding free and fair elections this year.  Sources say the Biden administration does not expect Maduro to make enough progress before the license expires on April 18, 2024.  The U.S. could replace the current license with a new, more restrictive license, which could allow oil sales but ban the use of U.S. dollars in transactions.  Maduro has vowed to make do with or without a license.  U.S. officials are reportedly not planning to revoke Chevron’s authorization to sell Venezuelan oil, or authorization for European oil companies to take Venezuelan oil.  Reuters

New recruiting programs put Army and Air Force on track to meet enlistment goals. Navy will fall short. The U.S. Army and Air Force are on track to meet their recruiting goals this year, utilizing new programs and policy changes to reverse prior shortfalls. However, the Navy, despite improvements, anticipates missing its recruitment target again. The ongoing challenge reflects the difficulty of attracting recruits in a competitive job market that offers attractive salaries and benefits without the demands of military service. Programs like the Army’s future soldier prep course have been instrumental in preparing recruits to meet military standards, contributing to this year's optimistic outlook.  Associated Press

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — Should a U.S. President Ever Be Above the Law?

Asia and Oceania

Philippine’s Marcos says no plans to give U.S. access to more local military bases.  Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he does not plan to grant the U.S. access to additional military bases in his country.  Marcos granted U.S. forces access to four additional bases last year, bringing the total to nine bases where U.S. troops can rotate indefinitely under a 2014 agreement.  Beijing has criticized the U.S. military presence, particularly at bases close to Taiwan and southern China.  Marcos, speaking to reporters, emphasized that this current presence of U.S. forces was in response to China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.  When asked when the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines could be invoked, Marcos cited Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying that could happen if a Filipino serviceman is killed in an attack by a foreign power.  Associated Press Japan Times

Senior US diplomats hold ‘frank and constructive’ talks with Chinese officials.  Senior Chinese and American diplomats held “frank, in-depth and constructive” talks on Monday aimed at strengthening exchanges and managing their differences, according to China's foreign ministry. The talks covered issues such as the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Korean peninsula. Both sides agreed to continue engaging in stabilizing and developing relations, while China expressed its “solemn position” on a “series of wrong words and deeds” concerning the disputed South China Sea. China also urged the U.S. not to engage in bloc confrontation or undermine peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and asked for the U.S. to stop “interfering” in its internal affairs and imposing sanctions on Chinese businesses.  South China Morning Post Reuters 

Taiwan’s incoming leader sends reassuring message to U.S. on national security.  Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te is set to appoint a national security team comprising holdovers from the current administration, signaling to the U.S. that his incoming government will maintain continuity. The personnel picks, expected to be announced later this month, will include familiar faces in Washington D.C., according to sources familiar with the matter. Government officials and political analysts view the expected appointments as a reshuffling of the current cabinet in Taipei, intended to reassure the Biden administration of stability. Lai, currently Taiwan's vice president, won the January election and will succeed his boss, President Tsai Ing-wen, who is stepping down after two terms. Lai's political rise has caused concern for both U.S. and Chinese officials, with the White House worried that he might be more likely than Tsai to provoke Beijing with provocative rhetoric and draw the U.S. into a confrontation.  Wall Street Journal

Ma Ying-jeou urges Taiwan’s next president to respond ‘pragmatically’ to Xi Jinping’s ‘olive branch.  Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has urged the island's president-elect William Lai to respond pragmatically to the “olive branch” extended by Chinese leader Xi Jinping and to accept the one-China principle.  Ma made the remarks after a trip to mainland China, which included a meeting with Xi in Beijing last week.  Ma also called on Lai to take note of Xi's goodwill and refrain from pursuing Taiwanese independence.  South China Morning Post 

China reveals it executed scientist for spying in 2016.  China suggested for the first time that Huang Yu, a man executed for “espionage” in 2016, had sold secrets to the United States.  CCTV said Huang had handed over secrets, including details on China's military communications, to a foreign government and had been paid $700,000 by his foreign handlers before his arrest in 2011. CCTV did not explicitly mention the country Huang was accused of assisting, images of an American flag and the U.S. Capitol building were shown in the report, suggesting the U.S. was involved.  The video was part of a campaign in China's state media to heighten awareness of what Beijing sees as the threat from foreign spies and to celebrate China's counter-espionage successes.  South China Morning Post Reuters 

Singapore PM Lee stepping down in May. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he will step down on May 15th after two decades in power, handing over the reins to his deputy Lawrence Wong. Lee will formally advise the city-state's president to appoint Wong, the current deputy prime minister and finance minister, as his successor, with Wong set to be sworn in at the national palace later the same day. Wong has the unanimous support of lawmakers in the long-ruling People's Action Party, which Lee has led since August 2004.  AP Financial Times Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera

US-China competition focal point in Solomon Islands election. The Solomon Islands is holding an election on Wednesday that will have significant implications for the region's future. Current Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who ended his country’s recognition of Taiwan in favor of Beijing and sparked concerns about China gaining a naval foothold in the South Pacific, is seeking an unprecedented second consecutive term. Even if Sogavare is not re-elected, observers believe China will back multiple pro-Beijing candidates in the complex contest for the Solomons' top job to solidify its growing influence.  AP Al Jazeera

US, Japan, South Korea finance chiefs to meet. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea will hold a meeting of financial chiefs on Wednesday in Washington, as part of coordinated efforts among the three allies to counter geopolitical and economic security threats. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, and South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok are expected to discuss sanctions against Russia and North Korea, as well as support for Pacific island nations. The meeting will take place on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) spring meetings and discussions among Group of 20 nations this week. Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul have been strengthening their security and economic security cooperation, aiming to reduce supply chain exposure to China and collaborating on key technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence.  Bloomberg 

China says Hong Kong must 'tightly hold' national security line to safeguard development. China's top official on Hong Kong affairs, Xia Baolong, said that they are “tightly holding” onto the bottom line of national security to safeguard Hong Kong's development. Xia's speech comes weeks after the enactment of sweeping new security laws in Hong Kong, known as Article 23, which update or introduce laws to prohibit treason, sabotage, sedition, theft of state secrets, and espionage. The new laws carry jail terms of up to life imprisonment and are seen as a significant step in China's efforts to tighten control over Hong Kong.  Reuters 

Australian police say stabbing at Assyrian church was ‘terrorist act.’  Australian police said a knife attack on an Assyrian church in Sydney was a terrorist attack motivated by suspected religious extremism.  At least four people were injured in the attack, including a bishop at the church.  Reuters BBC CNN Al Jazeera Associated Press

Saudi foreign minister visits Pakistan.  Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Pakistan on Monday.  Prince Faisal is expected to meet Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari.  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Sharif in Saudi Arabia a week ago.  Officials say Prince Mohammed told Sharif in their meeting that Riyadh will invest $5 billion in Pakistan.  Associated Press

Europe

Families of Manchester bombing victims file lawsuit against MI5. Hundreds of survivors and relatives of the victims of the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing have filed a lawsuit against MI5. The legal action follows an independent public inquiry that identified missed opportunities by the UK's domestic security service to prevent the attack, which killed 22 people and was claimed by Islamic State. The Investigatory Powers Tribunal, an independent judicial body, will decide whether to accept the case. It appears to be the first time MI5 has been sued for its failure to prevent a terror attack. The New York Times reported that holding security services accountable for failures is difficult, citing limited success by families of victims of the Sept. 11 terror attacks in America in a lawsuit against the Saudi Arabian government. New York Times

Poland plans to join Europe’s Iron Dome-like air defense plan. Poland plans to join the European Sky Shield Initiative to develop a continent-wide air defense system, akin to Israel's Iron Dome, in response to potential drone and missile threats. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking alongside Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Monday, emphasized the urgency following recent Iranian attacks and the use of similar drones by Russia in Ukraine. “There is no reason for Europe not to develop its own shield against rockets and drones,” Tusk said. The European Sky Shield Initiative currently includes 21 countries. Bloomberg 

E.U. goes on China trade offensive after getting played for years. The European Union is confronting China with trade investigations and potential sanctions. These measures target Chinese subsidies in sectors like electric vehicles and clean tech, aiming to level the playing field for European industries and combat unfair competition. The actions follow years of exploitation by China and align with broader Western strategies to address global trade imbalances. The EU's assertive stance includes possible tariffs and scrutinizing Chinese bids in European tenders, reflecting a shift toward protecting domestic industries and maintaining competitive markets. “Knowing you have been played teaches you that you need to watch out, to be much more observant and to take better actions,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief told Bloomberg Television last week. Bloomberg 

Wars to dominate G7 talks in Italy as foreign ministers seek path to peace.  This week's G7 foreign ministers' meeting on the island of Capri will focus on resolving wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Wednesday through Friday meetings, chaired by Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, will see discussions on demanding ceasefires in Gaza and de-escalating Israel-Iran tensions while reaffirming support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Efforts to engage China in peace efforts and potential use of frozen Russian assets will also be on the agenda. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will participate in Capri. If Ukraine is defeated, “it's impossible to achieve an agreement,’’ Tajani said. “Defeat is not a good bridge for peace. For this, we need to back Ukraine. But the final goal is peace. Peace with justice. Justice, Russia, outside Ukraine."  Reuters

Protesters rally, lawmakers brawl as Georgia debates Russia-inspired 'foreign agent' bill.  An estimated 5,000 protested in Georgia on Monday against a proposed “foreign agents” bill requiring organizations with foreign funding to register as such, likening it to Russian anti-dissent laws. The bill sparked a brawl in parliament, and criticism from Western nations, highlighting its potential to strain Georgia's relations with the European Union and the U.S.  Footage broadcast on Georgian television showed Mamuka Mdinaradze, leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party’s parliamentary faction and a driving force behind the bill, being punched in the face on Monday by opposition MP Aleko Elisashvili.  The Georgian Dream party defends the bill as necessary to combat "pseudo-liberal values.”  President Salome Zourabichvili, a critic of the Georgian Dream, supported the protesters, vowing "Georgia will not surrender to resovietisation!"  Georgia is due to hold elections by October. Opinion polls show that Georgian Dream is the most popular party, but has lost ground since 2020. Russia is unpopular in Georgia due to its support for two breakaway regions in the ex-Soviet state: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia defeated Georgia in a short war in 2008. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera BBC

Teenager sentenced for terrorist plot on UK music festival.  A British teenager was sentenced Monday to seven years' detention for plotting a terrorist attack on the Isle of Wight music festival. The 16-year-old, who had converted to Islam, planned to carry out a knife attack at the festival in June 2022. He was arrested in July 2022 after changing his initial plans. He was convicted of preparing a terrorist act, disseminating terrorist publications, and possession of a weapon. Reuters

Middle East

Belgium postpones Red Sea deployment of frigate after technical mishaps.  Belgium delayed the deployment of its frigate Louise-Marie to the Red Sea due to technical failures during training. The ship encountered issues with its air-defense missile system and other defense mechanisms. This postponement follows similar incidents with Danish and German frigates.  Defense News

Africa

Bangladeshi ship seized by Somali pirates freed. A cargo vessel, MV Abdullah, seized by pirates off the Somali coast, has been released along with its 23 crew members after 32 days of captivity, the European Union’s maritime security force said on Monday. The EU’s Operation ATALANTA had monitored the ship since its capture on March 12. The circumstances of its release remain unclear. Bangladeshi company SR Shipping Lines owns the ship. The incident has rekindled concerns about the resurgence of piracy in the region, which had declined after 2011. Associated Press

Macron says the international community pledges €2 billion for Sudan.  French President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday that the international community has pledged €2 billion to aid Sudan, where half of the nation’s 49 million people lack food due to a year-long civil war. The pledges, made at a conference in Paris, include €900 million from European Union member states, with France contributing €110 million. The war in Sudan has killed nearly 15,000 people and displaced 11 million. Bloomberg 

UK sanctions three companies linked to Sudan civil war.  The UK has imposed sanctions on three businesses linked to the warring factions in Sudan's civil war. The targeted companies include Alkhaleej Bank and Al-Fakher Advanced Works, which support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces operations, and Red Rock Mining, a subsidiary funding the Sudanese Armed Forces. These measures aim to pressure the factions towards peace talks. The measures mark the first anniversary of the war between the rival military factions in the northeastern African nation. Bloomberg Reuters Barron's Telegraph   

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

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UK drafting AI regulations.  The U.K. government is starting to draft regulations to govern artificial intelligence, focusing on the most powerful language models that underpin OpenAI's ChatGPT. No legislation is imminent, and the government is likely to wait until France hosts an AI conference either later this year or early next to launch a consultation on the issue. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who hosted the first world leaders' summit on AI last year, has repeatedly said countries shouldn't “rush to regulate” AI. The U.K. risks losing ground on imposing guardrails on the industry, as the E.U. has already passed a sweeping law to regulate the technology, companies in China need approvals before producing AI services, and some U.S. cities and states have passed laws limiting use of AI in specific areas.  Bloomberg

U.S. to give Samsung $6.4 billion for Texas chip expansion.  The U.S. government is granting Samsung Electronics up to $6.4 billion to expand chip-making facilities in Texas.  Samsung will use the subsidy to expand its investment in Taylor, Texas, building a second chip-making factory, an advanced chip-packaging facility, and research-development capabilities.  Samsung's expansion plans include producing advanced 4-nanometer and 2-nanometer chips, crucial for its foundry business, as well as establishing facilities for high-bandwidth memory and 2.5-D packaging technologies.  The subsidy is funded by the Chips Act, which aims to increase U.S. domestic chip production.  Washington Post New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Ukrainian hacktivists claim breach of Russian drone developer.  Ukrainian hackers known as Cyber Resistance claim to have breached Russian drone developer Albatross, leaking 100 gigabytes of data including internal documentation, technical data, and UAV drawings. The group shared the data with InformNapalm, which analyzes leaks. InformNapalm's report on the leaked Albatross data confirms the company's involvement in developing Iranian-designed drones used by Russia against Ukraine, and sheds light on Russia's drone manufacturing capabilities. Cyber Resistance, a self-proclaimed hacktivist team, has cooperated with InformNapalm and Ukrainian security forces since 2014, but its government ties are unclear.  The Record

Researchers stop attempted open source software management breach.  Security researchers at the OpenJS Foundation — which monitors JavaScript projects used by billions of websites worldwide — detected an apparent breach attempt reminiscent of the recent XZ Utils backdoor incident.  Researchers received emails urging updates and access to a popular JavaScript project, mirroring tactics used in the XZ Utils breach.  None of those who contacted the researchers were granted privileged access, and the incident was reported to authorities.  The attempted breach underlines the vulnerability of open-source software management and concerns over single-maintainer projects.  Efforts are underway to release guidelines for maintainers and establish "retirement homes" for projects needing caretakers.  The Record

OpenAI confirms Tokyo office.  OpenAI is expanding to Asia with a new office in Tokyo, Japan, and the development of a custom GPT-4 model for the Japanese language. Tokyo was chosen for its tech leadership and innovation culture.  Tadao Nagasaki, formerly of Amazon Web Services, will lead OpenAI Japan.  This expansion marks OpenAI's fourth location, following San Francisco, London, and Dublin, highlighting its global growth strategy.  Cybernews  

SpaceX continues to dominate space industry.  SpaceX dominates the space industry with a record of groundbreaking achievements.  While emerging competitors like Bue Origin, Rocket Lab, and United Launch Alliance are rapidly unveiling new rockets and vying for Pentagon contracts, SpaceX maintains its lead with a relentless pace of innovation, extensive government contracts, and its booming Starlink satellite services.  SpaceX has helped drive down costs in the space industry and is inspiring other commercial space ventures.  However, there are considers over SpaceX’s potential monopolistic tendencies and competitor’s struggles to keep up with its innovation and expanding capabilities.  Washington Post 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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