Tuesday, April 11, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Fallout from U.S. Intelligence Leak Continues, Intelligence Officials Reviewing Intel Sharing Procedures. The recent leak of U.S. intelligence assessments on Ukraine and other global issues continues to rock the Pentagon, Intelligence Community, and wider U.S. government. During a White House press briefing on Monday, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that U.S. officials do not know if the leak is now contained. It remains unclear who leaked the documents and why; officials also do not yet know whether additional classified information has been compromised. As the U.S. government continues its internal investigations, senior U.S. leaders are reportedly scrambling to reassure allies in Ukraine, the Middle East, and elsewhere following the leak. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is receiving daily briefings with senior leaders to discuss the issue, and DoD reportedly set up a “cross-department effort” to engage allies and Congress, assess the potential impacts of the leak, and craft a path forward. The leaked information appears to be difficult to contain; news organizations have reported its presence on platforms like Twitter, 4chan, Telegram, and Discord in the last week. The Joint Staff issued procedures last Friday to limit the distribution of highly sensitive briefing documents and restrict attendance at meetings where paper copies of briefing books were available, according to a U.S. official. New York Times Politico Reuters
U.S. Designates WSJ Reporter “Wrongfully Detained” by Russia. On Monday, the State Department officially designated Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as “wrongfully detained”, launching a broad U.S. government effort to secure his release. Mr. Gershkovich, who was arrested by Russian security services last month, is being held on charges of espionage, which both the U.S. government and Wall Street Journal vehemently deny. The wrongfully detained designation moves his case to the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs and increases U.S. government resources and efforts to secure his release. The State Department also called on Russia to release Paul Whelan, another American who was also declared wrongfully detained; Mr. Whelan remains incarcerated and was sentenced to serve 16 years in a Russian penal colony. Officials say the speed at which the State Department designated Mr. Gershkovich was unprecedented; usually the process takes months and rarely comes before the detainee has met with American consular officials from the local embassy, which Mr. Gershkovich has not yet been permitted to do. The National Press Club and National Press Club Journalism Institute have called for even more to be done, including referring the case to the National Security Council. Al Jazeera CNN Wall Street Journal
Biden Looking at Democrat Operative to be Next State Department Spokesperson. According to informed sources, President Biden considers Matthew Miller to be a good candidate for the position of State Department Spokesperson. Miller, a communications official who worked as an adviser to the National Security Council and was also involved in the confirmation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, will replace Ned Price if selected. Currently, Miller is both a MSNBC analyst as well as a partner at the company Vianovo, where he offers advice on an array of subjects including litigation, political and social concerns, investigations in government, and reformer campaigns. Miller also served under the Obama administration. Politico
Mexican, U.S. Officials to Discuss Fentanyl Crisis. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Monday that members of his security cabinet will hold talks with U.S. officials this week to address the trafficking of fentanyl from Mexico into the U.S. The U.S. says nearly all fentanyl in the U.S. is mass produced by criminal groups in Mexico. Lopez Obrador denies this and has called on China for help in stemming alleged flows of precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production from China to Mexico. Beijing has denied this claim, saying there is no illegal opioid trafficking between China and Mexico. As blame is thrown around for the fentanyl crisis, U.S. officials are calling for stronger action on the issue. Some GOP lawmakers have even suggested taking military action in Mexico to eliminate Mexican cartels and their drug labs. Politico Reuters
Polish Prime Minister in U.S. for Defense Talks. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is in the U.S. for a three-day visit aimed at bolstering economic and defense ties between Warsaw and Washington. He will meet with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday for talks that will include discussions on Ukraine support. He will also meet with representatives of U.S. defense companies to discuss current and planned purchases, including orders for F-35 jets, Abrams tanks, HIMARS artillery systems and Patriot missiles. Associated Press
Brazilian President Says He Will Invite China’s Xi to Brazil. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio da Silva said Monday that he will invite Chinese President Xi Jinping to Brazil when he meets with him on Friday. Lula said he wants Xi to visit Brazil “to get to know” the country and to show that Brazilian projects are open to Chinese investment. Lula’s comments came on the eve of his trip to China, which underscores his government’s pragmatic foreign policy to balance ties with the U.S. and China despite tensions between the two. Reuters
Western Europe
Macron Receives Criticism Over EU and Taiwan Comments. French President Emmanuel Macron was criticized by both U.S. and European officials over his recent comments during his trip to China, where he called on Europe to act independently of the U.S. in navigating tensions between Beijing and Taiwan. His comments are being widely seen as reigniting long-running disputes between Europe and the U.S. and within Europe itself; Senator Marco Rubio said in a video posted on Twitter that the U.S. should ask other Europeans whether they stand with Macron, and that the answer could affect how the U.S. approaches Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A German member of Parliament also said on Twitter that Mr. Macron is increasingly isolating himself in Europe. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Biden Returns to Ireland Amidst Challenges. President Joe Biden leaves later this week for a four-day tour through Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement. The agreement was a milestone in the Northern Ireland peace process that ended “The Troubles”, an ethno-nationalist conflict in Northern Ireland that prevailed in the country from the 1960s until 1998. The visit comes at a challenging time for the country; critics have said that one of the central tenets of the Agreement, power sharing between British unionists and Irish nationalists, is failing. On Tuesday, in response to rumors that Biden had arranged a joint meeting to try and break the political deadlock that has kept Parliament from functioning for more than a year, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair warned against putting pressure on the British unionists to restore power sharing. In February, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed with the EU to soften the terms of Brexit by creating a lane without any controls on British goods destined solely for Northern Ireland; however, Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party refuses to accept that deal. There are also increasing concerns about the country’s security; the terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland was recently raised to “severe” after police disrupted a bomb plot targeted for Londonderry by members of the New IRA, a paramilitary group affiliated with the Irish Republican Army. New York Times Politico Telegraph USA Today
Austria to Prolong Hungarian, Slovenian Border Checks for Six Months. Austria plans to extend its border checks with neighboring Hungary and Slovenia by another six months starting on May 11. The checks suspend the Schengen area’s free travel rules. The Austrian Interior Minister said they will inform the European Commission in coming days, and are necessary to fight illegal immigration. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Eastern Ukraine Fighting Remains Intense as Kyiv Minimizes Impact of U.S. Intelligence Leak. Russia continued attacks on eastern Ukraine on Monday. The head of Russian-controlled areas in the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, said Russian forces are now in control of 75 percent of Bakhmut, which Kyiv said was under intense bombardment by Russian air strikes and artillery barrages. Ukrainian officials added that Russia was also launching significant air strikes on the nearby towns of Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. Despite the attacks, Ukraine’s general staff says Russian forces have made 10 unsuccessful advances west of Bakhmut. The continued fighting comes as Ukrainian officials work to play down reports that Ukraine’s military is changing plans due to information disclosures in the U.S. intelligence leak. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said that while specific tactical plans “are constantly refined,” Ukraine’s strategic plans are “unchangeable.” CNN Kyiv Independent Reuters
Russia, Ukraine Return Over 200 Troops in Prisoner Exchange. Russia and Ukraine conducted another prisoner swap on Monday. Russia’s Defense Ministry says Ukraine released 106 Russian troops in the exchange. Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said Russia freed 100 Ukrainian prisoners in the swap. Neither side said intermediaries were involved in the exchange. Associated Press
Belarus’ Lukashenko Requests Russian Security Guarantees. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday in Minsk. Belarusian state media says Lukashenko told Shoigu that he wants Moscow to guarantee it will defend Belarus if it is attacked, a request the Belarusian leader reportedly already asked of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus hosts a contingent of Russian forces and has been used as a staging ground to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Moldova’s Sandu Calls for More Integration with Europe, Closer Ties. Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova, has reaffirmed the country’s goal of establishing deeper ties with Europe and resisting Moscow’s pressure to reintegrate. In a televised speech on Monday Ms. Sandu claimed, “we want the European Union at home” and pointedly asserted the desire for peace in the former Soviet bloc. Sandu denounced the “senseless” conflict that Russia instigated in Ukraine, and blamed Moscow for the increase of energy prices and inflation. Though the Kremlin has protested against the notion that they seek to disturb Moldova, the Russian foreign ministry has cautioned the country against becoming closer to the EU and NATO. On Monday, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned Moldova that cooperation with Europe is “fraught with the loss of sovereignty” and would bring repercussions. Wall Street Journal
Russia Justifies China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday backed China’s wargames around Taiwan, saying that they were justifiable responses to repeated “provocations” against Beijing. He added that China has the sovereign right to conduct such exercises and that they were in accordance with international law. Separately, in response to French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China last week, Peskov added that Paris is not in a position to help mediate peace in Ukraine as it is “both indirectly and directly involved in this conflict on the side of Ukraine.” Reuters
Asia
Chinese Navy, Air Force Linger Near Taiwan After Drills. Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Tuesday that it had spotted nine Chinese ships and 26 aircraft carrying out combat readiness patrols around the island, despite Beijing’s statement on Monday night that its military drills had ended. China began military exercises on Saturday after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen returned from a meeting with U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. Taiwan’s government has repeatedly denounced the drills, but said it will not escalate or provoke; its air force, navy, and land-based missile crews are closely monitoring the situation. On Monday, the defense ministry said that 91 Chinese military aircraft flew in missions around the island, and published a map showing that the aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which normally serves as an unofficial barrier. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen condemned the Chinese wargames and military activities on Tuesday, saying they are irresponsible and endangering regional stability. Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters
Philippines, U.S. Begin Largest-Ever Joint Military Drills. The Philippines and the U.S. began their largest-ever joint military drills on Tuesday. The 38th annual Balikatan exercises will involve 12,200 American and 5,400 Philippine military personnel and are designed to test capabilities in maritime security, information sharing, cyber defenses, amphibious operations and logistics. The exercises will also for the first time include offshore live-fire drills, including a boat-sinking exercise in waters west of the Philippines. The drills are starting a day after China conducted significant war-games around Taiwan. They also come days after the Philippines gave the U.S. access to four more military bases in an expansion of their Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized on Monday that Manila will not permit the bases, which are in strategic areas facing Taiwan and disputed waters in the South China Sea, to be used in any “offensive action.” Marcos’ comments appear to be aimed at placating China, which warned the base access deal will further destabilize the region. Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC Nikkei Asia Reuters
South Korea to Look Into US Data Leak Following Exposure of S. Korean Information. South Korea said Tuesday that documents in the U.S. intelligence leak that suggest the U.S. spied on top-level South Korean security officials are “untrue” and “altered.” The documents detail internal discussions in Seoul about concerns that South Korean artillery shells sold to the U.S. would be diverted to Ukraine, which would violate a South Korean law that forbids it from supplying weapons to countries currently in a conflict. The South Korean president’s office said such suggestions of U.S. surveillance in the documents are “utterly false” and that any attempts to undermine the country’s alliance with the U.S. are “compromising national interest.” The presidential office added that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his South Korean counterpart on the matter and said that both sides agreed the documents were fabricated and to closely communicate about the issue. Despite this, some South Korean lawmakers say that if the alleged surveillance is true, it is a violation of national sovereignty and a major security failure by the current South Korean government. Reuters Wall Street Journal
India Launches Border Village Program Despite China Protests. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah visited the Himalayan frontier state of Arunachal Pradesh on Monday to launch a 48 billion rupee ($585 million) program to develop nearly 3,000 villages in the border region. The “Vibrant Villages Programme” aims to reverse migration out of border areas, which Shah said would help bolster frontier security. The plan comes amid tensions with China over the border; Beijing criticized Shah’s visit to the region as a violation of China’s territorial sovereignty. Reuters
World Food Program Urges Support for Afghanistan. The U.N. food agency said on Monday that it desperately needs $800 million for the next six months to prevent famine in Afghanistan. The country has experienced economic collapse and widespread poverty since the 2021 Taliban coup. Additionally, the distribution of foreign aid has decreased significantly after the Taliban prohibited women from working in December. Afflicted not only with economic decline but also drought, hunger, and the effects from decades of conflict, the World Food Program says that Afghanistan is the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis. Associated Press
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israeli Settlers March to West Bank Outpost as Tensions Mount. Thousands of Israelis, including seven Cabinet ministers, marched Monday to the evacuated, unauthorized settlement of Evyatar in the northern occupied West Bank. The Israeli military approved and secured the march to Evyatar, which was evacuated in 2021. There was no major violence at the march, though Israeli troops reportedly fired tear gas and rubber bullets at Palestinians in the nearby village of Beita protesting the march. The mass rally signals that the current Israeli government, which is the most religious, ultra-nationalist and right-wing in the country’s history, is set to expand settlement building in the West Bank despite international opposition. The march is set to further exacerbate already heightened tensions following days of violence across Israel and the West Bank during the overlap of Ramadan and Passover. Associated Press Reuters
Israel’s Netanyahu Reverses Decision to Fire Defense Minister. Separate from the settler march, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday reversed a decision to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Netanyahu said two weeks ago he had sacked Gallant after the defense minister expressed opposition to proposed judicial reforms. The firing of Gallant inflamed protests against the plan and was unpopular, according to several polls. Speaking on the move to keep Gallant in his Cabinet, Netanyahu told reporters that he and Gallant are putting “our differences behind us.” Axios Wall Street Journal
Leaked Documents Show Egypt Planned to Supply Russia with Rockets. According to a top secret document from the U.S. intelligence leak, Egyptian President Fattah El-Sisi recently ordered up to 40,000 rockets to be secretly shipped to Russia. The document details alleged conversations between Sisi and Egyptian military officials about the proposed rocket transfers, as well as additional plans to send artillery rounds and gunpowder to Moscow. In the conversations, Sisi ordered the shipments to be kept secret “to avoid problems with the West.” If the purported conversations are true, it will put Egypt in an awkward position as it is a key U.S. ally and major recipient of U.S. military aid. When asked about the document, a spokesperson from the Egyptian foreign ministry said Egypt remains committed to “noninvolvement” in the Ukraine war and supports an end to hostilities. U.S. government sources added that they have not seen evidence Egypt has gone through with the arms transfers. The disclosure comes as Russia seeks to replenish its military for the Ukraine war and as the U.S. lessens its presence in the Middle East. Washington Post
Sub Saharan Africa
Violent Protests Emerge in Ethiopia Over Government’s Order to Demobilize Regional Units. Clashes continued in Ethiopia’s Amhara region last weekend as thousands protested against President Abiy Ahmed’s order to integrate the Amhara Special Forces (ASF) into the police or Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). The ASF and its allied militias vowed to oppose last week’s order, which created a standoff with the government. There were protests in at least 7 towns, including the regional capital of Gondar; two aid workers with Catholic Relief Services were killed in Amhara on Sunday, and an explosion in the town of Bahir Dar killed two more people on Monday. The ASF and its associated militias fought alongside the ENDF during its two-year war with neighboring Tigray region, which killed tens of thousands and ended with a truce in November 2022. Amhara leaders and activists say that the government’s move to dissolve the ASF would leave them vulnerable to attacks from Tigray and regional neighbor Oromiya. Al Jazeera Reuters
Congo Court Sentences Six Men to Life in Prison for Murder of Italian Ambassador. A Congolese military court has sentenced six men responsible for the death of Italian Ambassador Luca Attansio, his bodyguard, and his driver, to life in prison. The three men were killed in a botched kidnapping in February 2021 while driving to a World Food Programme project. Five of the people sentenced over their deaths are already in prison, while another is at large. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Meandering Journey of US Intelligence Leaks from Discord to 4chan. Bellingcat spoke to three members of the Discord community where the images of classified Pentagon briefing slides were posted who claimed that many more documents had been shared across other Discord servers in recent months, but the channels were deleted after news of the leaked documents broke. According to Bellingcat, the Discord channels in which the documents from March were posted focused on the computer game Minecraft and a Filipino YouTube celebrity; they then spread to other sites like 4chan before appearing on Telegram and Twitter. Bellingcat’s analysis suggests the documents jumped from 4chan to Telegram on April 5, and that the Telegram account that first shared the documents may have altered the images to overinflate Ukrainian losses and underestimate Russian losses. Bellingcat also traced the documents from 4chan and Telegram to Discord posts from March 1 and 2, but believes that those posts still may not be the original source of the documents; an earlier Discord server may have contained the files as early as January. Bellingcat
Pro-Russian Hackers May Have Compromised Canadian Gas Pipeline. A Pentagon report from the U.S. intelligence leak says the cybercriminal group Zarya, which is linked to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), may have compromised an unspecified gas pipeline company in an attack in late February. The report says Zarya gained control of a gas distribution station in the attack and was allegedly able to alter valve pressure, disable alarms and initiate emergency pipeline shutdowns. The report appears to reference an incident on February 25 where cyber threat actors compromised the Canadian I.P. address of a gas pipeline company to cause economic damage. The report says the attack may have been the first observed instance of a Russia-backed hacking group successfully disrupting Western industrial control systems. Canada’s cyber authorities did not comment on the leaked report. New York Times
Commerce Considering Online Security Action Against Russian Cybersecurity Firm. The Commerce Department is reportedly considering an enforcement action against Kaspersky Lab, a Russian cybersecurity company that has been routinely accused of posing a threat to the U.S. and whose software was purged from government systems during the Trump administration. The action, should it be taken, could become a bellwether for the Commerce Department’s role in dealing with online threats. Unnamed sources said the U.S. might deploy the same online-security rules against Chinese-controlled technologies, possibly including TikTok, according to the Wall Street Journal. Kaspersky has repeatedly denied that it works with Moscow or any government to facilitate malicious cyber activities, including cyber espionage. A Commerce Department spokesman said the agency is working to revise its online-security rules, known as Information and Communications Technology and Services regulations, which are aimed at protecting U.S. users from threats that could come from technologies based in countries like Russia and China. CyberWire Wall Street Journal
FBI Says 2021 Florida Water Treatment Plant Disruption May Not Have Been a Hack. The FBI says that the 2021 cyber incident at the Oldsmar, Florida water treatment plant, which was originally thought to have been caused by a cyber intrusion of the plant, may not actually have been a hack. According to the statement from the FBI, after two years of investigating, it has found little evidence pointing to a malicious cyber attack as the cause of the disruption at the plant. The statement came following a claim by the former manager of the plant that the incident was a result of an “overzealous employee.” CyberScoop
OpenAI CEO Meets Japan PM, Considering Opening Japanese Office. On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced that he is considering expanding company operations and services in Japan following a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. According to chief cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the two reportedly discussed the risks and benefits of Artificial Intelligence. Matsuno also added that Japan will consider the possibility of introducing AI-powered technologies. Reuters
Apple Patches Zero-Days in iPhones, iPads. Apple published security advisories on Monday saying it has released security patches to address two actively-exploited zero-day flaws in iPhones, iPads and Macs. Apple is urging all consumers to update their devices with the security updates. CISA has likewise ordered federal agencies to patch their devices against the vulnerabilities. BleepingComputer
Yum! Brands Company Says Employee Information Exposed in January Ransomware Attack. Yum! Brands, the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, said Monday that it is sending alerts to employees whose information was exposed in a January ransomware attack. Yum! Brands said it has found that the threat actor behind the attack stole an unspecified number of employees’ personal identifiable information, such as driver’s license numbers. The company maintains that it has no evidence customer information was exposed in the attack, which forced the temporary shutdown of 300 restaurants in the U.K. BleepingComputer
Vietnam Probes TikTok ‘Toxic’ Content Aimed at Youth, Culture. Vietnam’s Information Ministry announced that it would look into TikTok operations in the country, as there are concerns over “toxic” content on the app targeting the country’s youth. According to ministry representative Le Quang Tu Do, moderating content on the app is more difficult than on other apps, and they will need “tougher measures to combat that content,” but did not elaborate on details. Do did not say outright if the app would be banned when asked but did say that apps that do not follow the country’s rules will not be welcomed in the country. TikTok is the only app being reviewed because it is the only one with offices in the country according to the statement. Reuters
Large Chinese AI Firm Unveils New AI Products, Chatbot. Chinese artificial intelligence firm SenseTime unveiled several new AI products including a chatbot and image generator as part of a growing AI race. The chatbot, dubbed “SenseChat,” rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT. In the reveal, Xu li, the company’s CEO, demonstrated the chatbot, having it write an email, and lines of computer code. SenseTime, which is sanctioned by the US, has not provided details on how or when the products will be rolled out, but attendees of the unveiling event were able to test out the products. Reuters
South Korea’s President Calls to Strategize How to Boost Chip and Battery Sectors. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for a national strategy meeting on Monday to discuss how to boost South Korea’s battery and semiconductor sectors, according to a presidential spokesperson. The spokesperson did not provide any additional details, but it comes after the country has experienced a deceleration of chip exports following a weakened global economy. Reuters
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