Report for Thursday, September 5, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Mediators drafting new Gaza ceasefire proposal

Zelensky orders war's biggest reshuffle to give Ukraine 'new energy'

U.S. takes action against Russian disinformation campaign

FBI dossier reveals Putin's secret psychological warfare in Europe

CISA leaders describe shift from content moderation to protecting election infrastructure

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

What the U.S. Military's 'Overwhelming Force' Means for the Middle East.  The Cipher Brief

China is our only real Existential Threat, says Former Senior CIA Officer..  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Gaza truce proposal may be a bridge to nowhere.International mediators are drafting a new cease-fire proposal to bridge the distance between Israel and Hamas, officials said. U.S. officials said that they expected to complete a “final” proposal with Egyptian and Qatari negotiators on Wednesday or Thursday. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists Israel will not give up control of Gaza’s border with Egypt.  Israeli officials initially agreed to a phased withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor, a strip of Gaza along the Egyptian border, but Netanyahu abruptly rejected that idea. “People said, ‘If you stay, this will kill the deal.’ And I say, ‘Such a deal will kill us,’” Netanyahu said Wednesday. “Without withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor, there will be no agreement,” Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s lead negotiator, told Al Jazeera this week.  Netanyahu’s about-face represents an embarrassment for Mossad chief David Barnea, who, according to Haaretz, assured the mediators Monday that Israel was willing to withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor during the second phase of a proposed three-stage agreement.  Barnea was immediately contradicted by Netanyahu, resulting in confusion and skepticism about whether Netanyahu really wants a deal.  New York Times Washington Post Haaretz

Palestinian Ministry of Health says at least 6 Palestinians killed in Israeli bombing. At least six Palestinians were killed and three others injured after Israel bombed a vehicle in the West Bank area of Tubas, according to a Thursday report by the Palestinian Ministry of Health and the Red Crescent. In a statement, the Israeli army said its aircraft carried out three targeted hits on “armed terrorists” in Tubas, “in the northern Jordan Valley.” Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky orders war's biggest reshuffle to give Ukraine 'new energy.' President Volodymyr Zelensky’s cabinet reshuffle signals a critical pivot as Russia’s war intensifies ahead of the Ukrainian leader’s forthcoming U.S. visit. The timing suggests Zelensky is preparing to present a “victory plan” and recalibrate Ukraine’s international strategy ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The deadly Russian missile strikes, especially on civilian targets throughout the nation this summer, underline Ukraine's urgent need for advanced weaponry and stronger Western backing. Zelensky’s refreshed leadership team may aim to bolster confidence among allies that Kyiv can secure decisive gains with continued support. Washington Post Reuters 

ANALYSIS–As his popularity fades, Zelensky culls his cabinet. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent government reshuffle appears motivated by declining popularity and the need to further centralize power within his inner circle, particularly by elevating loyalists. With elections canceled due to the war, Zelensky has few ways to address waning public support, and the reshuffle offers a tool to project control. Key figures, like Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who clashed with Zelensky's more emotional style, were sidelined. The changes reflect a deeper consolidation of power, ensuring tighter loyalty amid rising challenges. Critics view the reshuffle as a governance crisis. The Economist PoliticoEU

Ukraine reshuffles its government: Who’s out, who's in. The Kyiv Independent did a round-up of the government reshuffle by position. Here’s a summary: Foreign Minister–Out: Dmytro Kuleba; In: Andriy Sybiha. Strategic Industries Minister–Out: Olexander Kamyshin; In: Herman Smetanin. Justice Minister–Out: Denys Maliuska; In: Olha Stefanishyna. Reintegration Minister–Out: Iryna Vereshchuk; Ministry restructured. Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration–Out: Olha Stefanishyna (moved to Justice Ministry). Culture and Information Policy Minister–In: Mykola Tochytsky. Agriculture Minister–In: Vitaly Koval. Ecology Minister– Out: Ruslan Strilets; In: Svitlana Hrynchuk. Sports and Youth Minister–In: Matviy Bidny. Veterans Affairs Minister–In: Natalia Kalmykova. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stays in position. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky to attend Ramstein meeting, push for long-range missiles, Spiegel says. According to Spiegel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the Ramstein group meeting on Friday, where he is expected to push for more long-range missiles and air defense systems. The Ramstein group, consisting of around 50 nations, meets to coordinate arms supplies to Ukraine. Zelensky has urged allies to lift restrictions on using donated weapons for strikes into Russia as Ukraine faces intensifying Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure. The meeting follows a significant wave of Russian attacks. Reuters

Putin says Ukraine's Kursk incursion has failed to slow Russia's eastern advance. At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said Ukraine's incursion into Russia’s Kursk region failed to slow Russia’s eastern advance and, instead, had weakened Kyiv's defenses. He said that Russian forces are swiftly reclaiming territory in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas, where he reaffirmed Moscow's goal of complete control. Reuters

China, India and Brazil could mediate Russia-Ukraine talks, Putin says. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that China, India, and Brazil could mediate in potential peace talks over Ukraine. Putin said a preliminary agreement reached between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in the first weeks of the war in Istanbul could serve as the basis for talks. Reuters

Lavrov warns US not to mock Russia's 'red lines.' Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday warned the U.S. against mocking Russia's "red lines," referring to potential U.S. plans to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. Lavrov emphasized that Washington is losing sight of the mutual deterrence principles that have maintained security since the Cold War. He also suggested that the U.S. underestimates the consequences of escalation. Lavrov's comments follow reports of increased U.S. military support for Ukraine.  The Kremlin is now considering changes to its nuclear doctrine. Reuters

Scholz Touts Major Order for Air-Defense Systems for Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed Germany's commitment to bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses, announcing on Wednesday the delivery of five additional IRIS-T air-defense systems for the Bundeswehr and 17 more units for Ukraine. These are in addition to the seven systems already sent to Ukraine, which have intercepted over 250 Russian missiles and drones. Scholz emphasized that Germany’s support remains strong despite budget constraints. The additional systems are part of the European Sky Shield Initiative to improve Europe’s defense capabilities. Scholz also addressed criticism over Germany’s reluctance to provide longer-range missiles. Bloomberg Reuters

Ukraine cuts output at nuclear plant after Russian attacks. Ukraine reduced output by 33% at one unit of the South Ukraine nuclear power plant after Russian attacks damaged its electricity transmission system, Energoatom said Wednesday. The reduction followed shelling of Ukrenergo's infrastructure and fluctuations in the power grid. Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been heavily targeted by Russian missile and drone strikes, with the country relying primarily on its three operational nuclear plants for power. Reuters

Russia hits energy facilities in six Ukrainian regions, Kyiv says. Russian airstrikes targeted energy and other critical infrastructure in six Ukrainian regions, including Lviv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday. Ukraine's air force intercepted seven of 13 missiles and 22 of 29 drones during the attacks. The strikes caused damage, prompting emergency power cut-offs. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 19 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine on Thursday killed at least two civilians and injured 19. Ukrainian forces downed 60 of 78 Shahed-type drones launched overnight, while two drones returned to Russia and 15 were "lost." Kyiv endured an 11-hour drone attack with no casualties. Donetsk Oblast saw the most damage, with two killed and multiple injuries. Strikes also injured civilians in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy oblasts, while several other regions reported attacks. Kyiv Independent

Russia built covert trade channel with India, leaks reveal. Leaked correspondence reveals that Russia secretly acquired sensitive goods from India and explored setting up facilities there to secure key components for its war on Ukraine. Russia's industry and trade ministry, which oversees defense production, planned to use excess rupees from oil sales to bypass Western sanctions and obtain critical electronics with dual-use applications. Moscow targeted India as an alternative to Western suppliers, seeking components for telecommunications, drones, and other military uses. Despite Indian Prime Minister Modi's closer ties to the U.S., trade between Russia and India has deepened, causing friction with Washington. Financial Times

US warns Turkey of ‘consequences’ over military-linked exports to Russia.The U.S. has warned Turkey of potential consequences if it does not curb exports of U.S. military-linked goods vital to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Despite Western sanctions, Turkey has increased trade with Russia, providing critical components such as electronics for missiles and drones. The U.S. is particularly concerned about Turkey becoming a key conduit for sensitive goods. While Turkey's exports of such items have slightly decreased, the U.S. continues to pressure Ankara to stop this trade, threatening further sanctions on Turkish companies involved. Financial Times

White House's Finer meets Zelensky in Kyiv on security, energy. ​​U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Wednesday to discuss war strategy and energy security. Finer held a 90-minute session with Ukrainian military officials on the state of the war, including Ukraine’s incursion into Russia's Kursk region. Discussions also covered a proposed $50 billion loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, and energy recovery after Russian airstrikes. The meetings focused on Ukraine's moves for the next five months and continued U.S. support under the Biden administration. Reuters

The battle between drones and helicopters in Ukraine. In Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia, small, cheap FPV drones are emerging as a new threat to expensive Russian helicopters. In July, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was reportedly downed by a Ukrainian drone, marking a potential breakthrough in aerial warfare. Unlike larger Bayraktar drones, FPV drones are lightweight and adapted from commercial racing models, carrying out kamikaze attacks. Though they struggle to catch faster helicopters, new software helps calculate intercept courses based on radar data. With drones costing $500 compared to $500,000 Stinger missiles, Ukraine plans to produce millions, potentially limiting Russian helicopter operations. The Economist

IAEA head says tower at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia station requires demolition after fire. ​​International Atomic Energy Association Director General Rafael Grossi announced that a cooling tower at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, damaged by a fire in August, will likely need to be demolished. During his visit, Grossi inspected the site, describing the structure as "unusable" and highlighting the precarious situation at Europe’s largest nuclear facility, which remains in "cold shutdown." Grossi also reviewed water supply challenges following the Kakhovka dam's destruction and assessed nuclear fuel storage conditions. He labeled the situation as "very fragile." Reuters

Russian forces shell eastern Ukraine town, one dead, prosecutors say.  Russian forces shelled a residential area of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka on Wednesday, killing one person and injuring three, prosecutors said. Kostiantynivka has long been viewed as a key target for Russian forces advancing slowly westward through the Donetsk region. It lies northeast of Pokrovsk, the sector seeing the heaviest fighting on the eastern part of the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line. Reuters

Ukraine’s gamble against Russia risks becoming a blunder. Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia's Kursk region aimed to divert Russian troops from the eastern front but has fallen short of this objective. While Ukraine has made tactical gains, including seizing territory and capturing prisoners, Russia has intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine, making territorial advances. Critics worry that Kyiv's gamble in Kursk may have weakened its defenses in the east. Despite successes, Ukraine's ability to hold Kursk appears limited, and analysts suggest the operation could be viewed as a strategic error if Russia's eastern gains continue. The Hill

As The War Drags On, Gaps In Ukrainian Society Widen. Russia’s war on Ukraine has deepened societal divides. The number of Ukrainians living in poverty has grown by 1.8 million since 2020, bringing the total to 9 million, or 29 percent of the population in non-occupied territory, the World Bank said in May. While Kyiv's economy shows signs of recovery, many Ukrainians, especially the elderly, displaced, and disabled, struggle to survive. The war has unevenly affected different social groups, with poverty and job loss disproportionately hitting internally displaced people. Despite high national unity on issues like NATO and European Union membership, opinions on war strategy and peace talks with Russia are increasingly diverging. RFE/RL 

Labour is eager for progress on a special tribunal to try Russia over Ukraine. The UK’s Labour government aims to accelerate efforts to establish a special tribunal to try Russia’s leadership for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Lord Chancellor Shabana Mahmood expressed the need to inject urgency into the two-year stalled process as international disputes persist over which body should set up the tribunal. Discussions are complicated by concerns about stripping Russia's leaders of immunity, which could set a precedent for future cases. Mahmood emphasized the importance of finding a legal mechanism that is effective and supported by global institutions like the Council of Europe. The Guardian 

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Wednesday, September 4, 2024.

Russia is relying on countries like India, Serbia, and China to evade Western sanctions, including the covert acquisition of sensitive dual-use electronics from India. Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Lviv and Kryvyi Rih, causing civilian casualties and damage to buildings. Ukrainian authorities are investigating alleged Russian war crimes involving the execution of three Ukrainian soldiers near Toretsk after they surrendered. Germany will provide Ukraine with 17 additional IRIS-T air defense systems by 2026.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in Kursk Oblast while Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The Future of Warfare Is Electronic.Porter Smith and Nathan Mintz argue that Ukraine's recent offensive in Kursk, shielded by advanced electronic warfare, underscores that future wars will be won in the electronic domain. Ukrainian forces used sophisticated jamming techniques to disrupt Russian signals, allowing them to breach the border undetected. This highlights the growing importance of electronic warfare and drone systems in modern combat. The U.S., though a global innovator, lags in this area. To avoid falling behind adversaries like China, the Pentagon must prioritize investment in low-cost electronic warfare solutions critical for future drone wars and spectrum dominance. Wall Street Journal 

Opinion: Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is a fool’s errand that may allow a Russian victory. Andrew Latham argues that Ukraine's Kursk operation is a strategic misstep, diverting resources from more critical fronts in Donetsk, where Russia is advancing on the vital city of Pokrovsk. Citing Carl von Clausewitz’s principle of maintaining focus on the "center of gravity" in war, Latham contends that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk failed to divert Russian forces or achieve substantial territorial gains. Instead, it has dispersed Ukrainian troops, weakening their defense in key areas. Latham warns that this miscalculation may allow Russia to secure strategic victories in eastern Ukraine, exacerbating Ukraine’s manpower and logistical challenges. The Hill

AMERICAS

Justice Department charges two Russians in propaganda scheme.  The Justice Department Wednesday filed a federal indictment against two Russians for covertly sending nearly $10 million to a Tennessee company to publish pro-Kremlin propaganda videos on American social media.  The court documents don’t name the Tennessee company, but U.S. media reports have pinpointed Tenet Media, founded by conservative commentator Lauren Chen, a host for Glenn Beck’s BlazeTV online video company, and her husband, Liam Donovan. Tenet promotes right-wing social media stars Benny Johnson, Dave Rubin, Tim Pool, Benny Johnson and Lauren Southern. The two Russians charged, employees of Russian state broadcaster RT, allegedly concocted a $10 million scheme to create and distribute Russian propaganda to U.S. audiences. “The Justice Department will not tolerate attempts by an authoritarian regime to exploit our country’s free exchange of ideas in order to covertly further its own propaganda efforts,” Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said. The indictment alleges that the co-founders knew the money came from Russia and deceived at least two American contributors about the source of their funds.  

In addition, more than 30 web domains described as part of the broad, covert “Doppelgänger” disinformation campaign executed by the Russian government were seized by Justice. At the same time, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on ANO Dialog, a Russian nonprofit that helps run the Doppelgänger network. For its part, the State Department will designate five Russian state-funded news outlets, including RT, Ruptly and Sputnik, as foreign government missions.  The department will restrict visas issued to employees of Moscow-supported media institutions.  In response to a request for comment, a spokesperson for RT dismissed the charges with a mocking response, including “2016 called and it wants its clichés back.”  New York Times Politico CNN Washington Post Associated Press Justice Department

Russia to target U.S. media in reprisal for actions against RT. Moscow has vowed to retaliate against American media following U.S. charges against Russian media executives and state broadcaster RT. Russia's foreign ministry condemned Washington’s actions as attempts to silence dissenting voices in global media and warned of retaliatory measures against American media, particularly if Russian journalists face obstacles in the U.S. Moscow also criticized the U.S. for allegedly presenting Russia as an enemy. Reuters

U.S. confirms China's New York consul general finished post, was not expelled.The U.S. State Department clarified on Wednesday that China's Consul General in New York, Huang Ping, left his post in August as part of a scheduled rotation and was not expelled. This comes after New York Governor Kathy Hochul called for his expulsion in light of her former aide, Linda Sun, being arrested for secretly acting as a Chinese agent in exchange for money and gifts. The Chinese embassy in Washington denied any interference in U.S. internal affairs and refuted reports that the envoy was expelled. Reuters CNN The Guardian

Biden admin considering stricter asylum ban at border with Mexico. Biden officials are contemplating whether to extend the duration of its asylum ban at the U.S. border with Mexico to maintain lower illegal crossing numbers. The current ban, imposed in June, is set to be lifted if the daily average of illegal crossings drops below 1,500 for one week, followed by a waiting period of two weeks. The administration is now discussing extending that time frame to several weeks. Although the 1,500 threshold has not been reached, the number of daily crossings plummeted to an average of 1,820 in July, significantly down from previous months. Reuters CBS

White House mulling establishment of U.N. peacekeeping operation for Haiti. Washington is considering establishing a U.N. peacekeeping operation in Haiti to secure additional funding and personnel for a Kenya-led mission aimed at combating gang violence. The current mission, backed by voluntary contributions, has insufficient resources, with only $85 million pledged out of the $600 million needed annually. Some 400 Kenyan police are already in Haiti, and more personnel from various countries are expected, but crime remains a significant issue and Haitians have lamented the lack of change in the amount of gang violence. U.S. Assistant Secretary Brian Nichols highlighted the need for broader international financial support. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit the Caribbean nation and discuss political reforms, including long-delayed elections. However,  violence continues to dominate Port-au-Prince, and political efforts are hindered by corruption scandals within Haiti's transitional government. Associated Press

Haiti’s state of emergency extended to cover entire country. Haiti on Wednesday expanded its state of emergency nationwide as it struggles to combat powerful, violent gangs that have overtaken much of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and spread to other regions. The state of emergency, initially declared in March 2023 for the Ouest department, which includes the capital, was extended to other areas, including the violence-stricken Artibonite region, the Centre department, and Nippes. Also on Wednesday, Prime Minister Garry Conille announced the distribution of weapons and materials to the Haitian army and police to reclaim gang-controlled territories. The expansion of the state of emergency comes ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Haiti. Reuters BBC

Colombian leader urges investigation into purchase of Pegasus spy software. Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday requested that the office of the attorney general launch a probe into the $11 million purchase of Israeli-built Pegasus spy software, which he suspects could have been used to conduct surveillance on opposition figures, during the previous administration. Pegasus, developed by Israeli firm NSO, has been used globally to hack the devices of civil society members, political opponents, and journalists. Petro raised concerns about how the money was transferred to Israel and whether he or other politicians were targeted without legal justification. He urged the Information and Analysis Unit (UIAF) and police to provide relevant documents and the software to the attorney general's office to ensure citizens' rights were respected. Reuters Barron's

EUROPE

Poland aiming to ramp up ammunition production. Poland plans to increase its production of 155 mm artillery rounds to ensure sufficient supplies for its defense, especially if Russia attacks NATO in the future. Maciej Idzik of the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) said Poland aims to fully develop its independent ammunition production within five to eight years. Currently, Poland assembles rounds from imported components but plans to manufacture 100,000 rounds annually. This effort is part of a broader EU initiative to expand ammunition production across the bloc. Poland's 2025 defense budget includes record spending of 186.6 billion zlotys ($48.19 billion), or 4.7% of its GDP. Reuters 

Kremlin Oil, Gas Revenues Up as Demand for Flows Rises. Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues rose by 21% in August compared to a year ago, reaching 778.6 billion rubles ($8.7 billion), largely due to higher Urals crude prices and increased gas exports. These revenues are vital for funding Russia’s war on Ukraine, with oil-related taxes making up nearly 80% of total hydrocarbon income. Despite sanctions, Russia has maintained its export flows through new buyers and a shadow fleet. Increased gas deliveries to China and Europe further boosted revenues, helping the Kremlin offset the growing costs of its military campaign. Bloomberg

FBI dossier reveals Putin’s secret psychological warfare in Europe. Russian psychological warfare in Europe, revealed by an FBI affidavit, targets key European nations like Germany, France, Italy, and the UK. The Social Design Agency, under Russian President Putin's deputy chief of staff, Sergey Kiriyenko, leads these efforts. Russian operatives seek to discredit the US, Britain, and NATO and foster opposition to sanctions, particularly in Germany, seen as vulnerable due to its economic reliance on Russian gas. The campaign uses fake media outlets and social media manipulation to incite internal tensions in Europe, promoting pro-Russian narratives and undermining support for Ukraine. PoliticoEU

Hungary cries foul as MEPs debate its controversial Russian visa scheme. A European Parliament debate on Hungary's national visa scheme for Russians and Belarusians sparked controversy after Hungary was excluded from the discussion. The scheme, which offers work and residence permits, has raised security concerns within the European Union. Hungary extended it to Russians and Belarusians in July, coinciding with Prime Minister Victor Orban’s visit to Russia. EU Commissioner Ylva Johansson highlighted the risks posed by Russian espionage in Europe. Hungary defended the scheme, noting the small number of permits issued, and denied any connection between the extension and Orban’s meeting with Vladimir Putin. EUObserver

Vladimir Putin’s flagship Arctic gas project struggles to lure customers. Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, led by Novatek, faces challenges due to U.S. sanctions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The project, intended to boost Russia's liquified natural gas production, has struggled to find buyers. Shipments have either remained in Russian waters or in storage, reflecting the difficulty in attracting buyers under sanctions. Despite Russia's attempts to evade sanctions with a "dark fleet" of LNG carriers, the U.S. has countered with additional restrictions. Experts suggest countries outside the sanctioning coalition, like India and China, may eventually buy the LNG, though likely at discounted rates. Financial Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

Egyptian leader in Turkey for first trip in 12 years after a decade of strain. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met in Ankara on Wednesday for the first time in 12 years to discuss the conflict in Gaza, as well as paths to further restore long-frayed diplomatic relations. Ties between Turkey and Egypt collapsed in 2013 after Sisi ousted Mohamed Mursi, an ally to Ankara, but began improving in 2020. During the meeting, the two leaders emphasized cooperation in areas such as natural gas, nuclear energy, trade, and regional issues. They signed 18 agreements covering sectors like defense, transport, tourism, and health, and expressed a shared commitment to boosting annual trade to $15 billion over the next five years. Both Erdogan and Sisi stressed their support for a ceasefire in Gaza and cooperation on the Palestinian cause. They also discussed the conflict in Libya, calling for elections and the withdrawal of foreign forces to resolve the division. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24 Associated Press Reuters

Turkish drone strike leaves three dead in northern Iraq. Three people were killed on Wednesday after a Turkish drone strike hit a vehicle in northern Iraq. Iraqi Kurdish security sources say the vehicle was set ablaze near the province of Sulaimaniya. The identities of the victims are not yet known. Turkey frequently conducts airstrikes against PKK insurgents in northern Iraq and maintains several outposts in the region. The PKK has been fighting Ankara since 1984, originally seeking to establish an independent Kurdish state. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese spy agency cautions students; 'beautiful women, handsome guys' could beguile them into espionage. The Chinese Ministry of State Security has warned students with access to clandestine data to be cautious of attractive individuals who may feign romantic interest to entice them into engaging in espionage for foreign entities. In a public statement on WeChat, the ministry described how foreign intelligence agencies target young students, exploiting their curiosity and desire for new experiences. The agency said foreign operatives pose as scholars or employees of research institutions, offering students high paying part-time jobs or academic exchanges to gain access to sensitive information. These intelligence agents use social media, phone or video to provide so-called free training, sometimes even pretending to be romantic partners. Beijing has recently intensified efforts to counter perceived threats to national security, but did not specify any details about the foreign organizations involved. Reuters

Taiwan observing Chinese landing exercises. The Taiwanese defense ministry on Wednesday reported that it was monitoring Chinese military landing drills in Fujian province’s Dacheng Bay, an area located across the Taiwan Strait from the island. The exercises, which involved Chinese aircraft, helicopters, drones, amphibious ships, and troop-loaded freighters, began on Tuesday. The Chinese defense ministry did not comment. Reuters

Malaysian leaders says not to halt exploration in South China Sea despite Beijing’s protests. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Thursday underscored the nation’s refusal to cease its South China Sea exploration for oil and gas, in spite of China’s staunch claims that Kuala Lumpur is violating its territory. Speaking from Russia, Anwar stressed that Malaysia’s activities are within its own territory, and are not meant to provoke Beijing. He acknowledged an openness for discussions, but insisted that operations in Malaysian waters would not be halted. This comes after a diplomatic note from China, claiming Malaysia’s exploration breached Chinese territory, was leaked. In recent years, Malaysia’s state energy firm Petronas, which maintains oil and gas fields in the hotly disputed region, has had multiple confrontations with Chinese ships. Reuters Al Jazeera

Singapore, India deepen ties, sign agreements in semiconductors and digital tech. India and Singapore on Thursday signed an agreement to collaborate in the semiconductor industry, amid efforts to strengthen Singaporean firms' role in India's supply chains. The leaders of India and Singapore signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit. The partnership will focus on policy exchanges, ecosystem development, supply chain resilience, and workforce development. Singapore, which holds 11% of the global semiconductor market, will leverage its expertise alongside India's growing ambitions in the sector. New Delhi, with a $10 billion package to boost its semiconductor industry, expects its market to reach $63 billion by 2026. During the visit, three other agreements were also signed, covering digital technologies, education and skills development, and health. Reuters CNBC

AFRICA

Africa secures $51 bln in fresh funding from China, as well as promise of jobs. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday promised nearly $51 billion in financial support to Africa, with a focus on infrastructure, green technology, and job creation. Speaking at the China-Africa summit in Beijing, Xi announced 30 infrastructure projects in addition to plans to create at least 1 million jobs across the continent. While China is shifting towards promoting advanced technologies rather than financing massive infrastructure projects, it remains committed to key areas like industry, agriculture, and trade. Xi underscored Beijing’s readiness for deeper cooperation in clean energy, nuclear technology, and efforts to address Africa’s power deficit. Although China had previously promised to buy $300 billion worth of African goods, Xi did not repeat this pledge, instead offering to expand market access unilaterally. Analysts point to Beijing’s strict market rules as a barrier to fulfilling that commitment. Xi also expressed support for the African Continental Free Trade Area and aims to strengthen logistics and financial cooperation to promote regional development. Reuters South China Sea

UN praises China’s initiatives in Africa, warns that insufficient access to debt relief spells social unrest. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday cautioned that Africa’s inadequate access to debt relief and limited resources could fuel social unrest, calling for “deep reforms” to the international financial system. Many African nations are facing a growing debt crisis, which has sparked recent protests over economic issues in countries like Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. The G20’s "Common Framework" for debt restructuring has been slow, with Zambia becoming the first country to restructure its debt through the scheme after a three-year process. Speaking at the China-Africa summit in Beijing, Guterres called Africa’s debt situation unsustainable. China, the largest bilateral lender to Africa, pledged $50.7 billion in new financing for the continent over the next three years. Guterres praised China’s efforts on the continent, particularly for their potential to advance renewable energy, food systems, and digital connectivity. Reuters

At least 100 killed by Boko Haram militants in brutal attack on Nigerian village. Suspected Boko Haram extremists in northern Nigeria attacked the Tarmuwa area of Yobe state on Sunday evening, killing at least 100 villagers in a savage raid. Dozens of militants on motorcycles opened fire on a market, homes, and worshippers, before setting buildings on fire. There are conflicting reports on the amount of assailants, with numbers ranging from 50 to 150 insurgents. And while local authorities reported a death toll of 34, survivors and community leaders confirmed 102 deaths, with more still missing. The attack is one of the deadliest in Yobe state in the past year. Boko Haram, responsible for over 35,000 deaths since 2009, claimed the attack was in retaliation for villagers informing security forces about their activities. One police spokesperson said it could also have been in response to “the killing of two Boko Haram terrorists by vigilantes from the village.” Reprisal attacks are common in the region, where Nigerian military presence is limited. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu condemned the attack but has faced criticism for not making significant strides in addressing the ongoing security crisis. Associated Press Al Jazeera The Guardian 

CYBER & TECH

CISA leaders describe shift from content moderation to protecting election infrastructure.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is confident that the U.S. electoral infrastructure is well positioned to protect against interference in the November elections.  However, CISA Director Jen Easterly told reporters that the agency will not ask social media platforms to remove false or misleading election posts, though she said “we’re looking to work with our partners on overall threats to election infrastructure.”  She said that CISA is in regular contact with technology firms concerning services that can be offered to state and local election officials.  Easterly said this also extends to information exchanges on monitored tactics by malign actors.  Cait Conley, the CISA election lead, also participated in the chat with reporters and said the agency has shifted to directing voters to accurate sources for election information rather than leaning on platforms to moderate election denialists and misinformation.  CyberScoop

Iranian influence operations becoming ‘more brazen, varied, ambitious’,  Iran’s election-related disinformation operations have become “more brazen, more varied and more ambitious” according to U.S. officials and technology specialists.  Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, recently commented that Tehran’s leadership “is becoming increasingly aggressive in their foreign influence efforts, seeking to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions.”  U.S. authorities have identified purported conservative and progressive news outlets operating under website identities as the “Savannah Times” and “NioThinker” as outlets of the Iranian influence campaign.  Amir Rashidi, director of security at the Miaan Group human rights group, explained that Iranian disinformation operations are “similar to how the (Islamic) Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) manage the proxy militias across the Middle East.  They infiltrate gradually but forcefully and play the long game.”  Another Iran expert, Omid Memarian, of the Washington-based DAWN advocacy group, said that in recent years “Iran basically transferred its robust existing infrastructure and mind-set of disinformation from traditional media tools to cyberspace and in the process globalized its mission.”  Iran’s influence operations are conducted primarily by IRGC units through front companies, including three identified by U.S. authorities – the International Union of Virtual Media, Iranian Islamic Radio and Television Union, and Bayan Rasaneh Gostar Institute.  New York Times

FBI warns of ‘sophisticated’ North Korean scams targeting cryptocurrency sector.  The FBI has warned that North Korean threat actors are conducting well disguised social engineering campaigns targeting decentralized finance (DeFi) firms.  An alert issued on Tuesday advised that while the DeFi sector is technically sophisticated, it still can be victimized by “complex and elaborate” social engineering schemes designed to collect employee information and develop online relationships.  According to the FBI, "the actors usually communicate with victims in fluent or nearly fluent English and are well versed in the technical aspects of the cryptocurrency field."  The threat actors’ goal, the FBI said, is to “deploy malware and steal company cryptocurrency.”  Specifically, the FBI notice said North Korean cyber teams monitor prospective targets “by reviewing social media activity, particularly on professional networking or employment-related platforms.”  The FBI said companies handling cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) are of particular interest to North Korean cyber specialists.  The theft of cryptocurrency funds, the alert continued, “is a persistent threat to organizations with access to large quantities of cryptocurrency-related assets or products.”  The Record BleepingComputer

Cyber director guidance urges network moves to protect internet traffic routing protocol,  The White House cyber director has issued guidance directed at enhancing the defenses of Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) technology, a key but vulnerable component responsible for routing Internet traffic.  Noting that BGP commonly lacks adequate security and resilience protections, the guidance calls on network operators that have not already done so to adopt Resource Public Key Infrastructure (RPKI).  If security is not bolstered, BGP is susceptible to attacks, including cryptocurrency thefts and malware implants.  The use of RPKI makes available technology solutions known as Route Origin Validation (ROV) and Route Origin Authorization (ROA) to verify for networks which Internet addresses can be accessed.  Even Federal networks have not fully employed ROA’s, according to the guidance, adding that “over 60 percent of the Federal government’s advertised IP space” will be able to put ROAs in place by the end of the year.  In issuing the call for enhanced network protections, the guidance notes its recommendations will apply especially “to the networks used by critical infrastructure owners and operators, state and local governments, and any organization dependent on internet access for purposes that the entity considers to be of high value.”  The Office of the National Cyber Director said it will lead a new Internet Routing Security Working Group including CISA and industry partners.  The Record   CyberScoop Wall Street Journal

Study notes sanctioned spyware vendors evading scrutiny by rebranding, relocation.  An Atlantic Council-American University study finds that spyware firms that have been heavily criticized and sanctioned for selling surveillance technology to authoritarian governments have taken steps to avoid further penalties and scrutiny, including by renaming themselves, starting new enterprises, or relocating to new jurisdictions.  The study said that regulations governing the sector depend on “self-reporting,” a weakness that could result in the market spiraling “out of control.”  Included in the study’s scope was Pegasus, the powerful tool sold by Israel-based NSO Group, and Predator, a surveillance tool developed by the Intellexa Consortium, both of which have been banned from interactions with the U.S. government.  Researchers also examined hundreds of less well known firms and suppliers.  The Atlantic Council found that although the U.S. government excluded NSO in 2021 from doing business in the U.S., other sector players, including those with NSO ties, have not faced U.S. sanctions.  QuaDream, a spyware company founded by an NSO veteran, only shut down after exposure by researchers at Microsoft and the nonprofit Citizen Lab.  Similarly, affiliates of the Intellexa consortium have not face U.S. punishments, which the report says complicates evaluations of the sanctions’ effectiveness.   Meanwhile, India has emerged as a lucrative location for surveillance vendors according to the study, which notes that India, like Israel, does not require past corporate names or top executives to be named in corporate filings.  Washington Post

Chinese research team claims autonomous vehicle advances in perceiving surroundings.  A research team of the Chinese Academy of Science reports that it has achieved two breakthroughs in autonomous vehicle engineering involving their ability to perceive their surroundings and to track movements.  The team from the Shanghai Institute of Microsystems and Information Technology (SIMIT) improved the streamlining  of three-dimensional representations by creating a more efficient alternative to two-dimensional projection.  In addition, SIMIT improved an autonomous vehicle’s ability to track an object as it moves across the three-dimensional representation, enabling it to predict its future location based on current trajectory.  The purpose of China’s Military-Civil Fusion policy suggests that the progress SIMIT reports in mapping and tracking targets by autonomous vehicles has potential value not only for auto manufacturers, but for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as well.  SIMIT’s accomplishments were subsidized by China’s National Natural Science Foundation, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the “Science and Technology Innovation 2030” project, which funds AI-related research such as advanced drone technology. DefenseOne

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