Report for Thursday, September 26, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Israel rejects U.S.-backed Lebanon ceasefire proposal

Israel tells troops to prepare for ground incursion into Lebanon.

U.S. ‘Unimpressed’ With Ukraine’s Victory Plan Ahead of Biden-Zelensky Meeting

Intel sources reveal secret Russian military drone project in China

Japanese destroyer transits Taiwan strait for first time

Leading Federal IT vendor’s Virginia headquarters raided by FBI

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Israel’s War on Hezbollah Faces Long Road to ‘Mission Accomplished’  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel rejects U.S.-backed Lebanon ceasefire proposal. Israel has rejected a U.S.-backed proposal for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, despite calls from allies such as the United States and France for an immediate 21-day halt in fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz emphasized that the fight against Hezbollah would continue until victory and the safe return of displaced northern residents. The conflict, the most intense between Israel and Hezbollah in two decades, has already killed over 600 people in Lebanon and displaced hundreds of thousands. Although Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed hope for a ceasefire, Israel has escalated airstrikes, and the possibility of a ground offensive remains as tensions rise. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has launched hundreds of missiles into Israel, including at Tel Aviv, while Israeli air defenses have limited the damage. Meanwhile, thousands of Lebanese civilians have sought refuge in shelters, with international aid organizations providing assistance.  Reuters

US, France seek Lebanon ceasefire as Israel prepares for possible ground operation.  President Joe Biden and his aides are urgently pressing to pause the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as Israeli troops prepare to move into south Lebanon. A U.S.-brokered plan would stop the fighting for up to four weeks. U.S. officials suspect that despite bellicose posturing, neither side really wants a wider war:  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government would welcome a diplomatic solution. Hezbollah needs time to recoup after Israel killed numerous leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal. U.S. officials hope a deal could break the deadlock on a Gaza cease-fire/hostage release deal. A White House official told the Wall Street Journal, “We are in active discussions with Israelis as well as other countries to try to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.” Reuters  Wall Street Journal  Reuters 

Israeli military leaders debut OperationNorthern Arrows, tell troops to prepare for ground incursion into Lebanon.  Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, told troops to get ready to “go in, destroy the enemy there and decisively destroy” Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon. “Your military boots ... will enter enemy territory,” Halevi said.  IDF Northern Commander Maj. Gen. Uri Gordon on Wednesday told his troops, “We have entered a new phase in the conflict, and now we are fighting as part of Operation Northern Arrows."  Israeli officials said Wednesday that two reservist brigades have been called up.   Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes continued bombarding southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley, attacking more than 280 targets Wednesday.  The Israeli air force struck a rocket launcher near Nafakhiyeh, south Lebanon, in response to the “launch of a Hezbollah surface-to-surface missile toward central Israel,” the IDF said. The Lebanon Health Ministry said that at least 72 people were killed and hundreds more injured in Israeli strikes Wednesday.  Jerusalem Post Washington Post Washington Post

Analysis:  Hezbollah is calibrating its response to Israel to avoid all-out war.  Hezbollah’s strike Wednesday at Mossad HQ marked several firsts: the first time Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile at Israel; the first time a Hezbollah missile reached near Tel Aviv, the first time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah responded to Israeli strikes on Beirut.  But a single missile ran a strong risk of getting shot down. Was it a warning shot? Hezbollah has a range of medium and long-range missiles in its arsenal and hasn’t used them.  Until last week, it had largely limited its involvement to near-daily cross-border strikes that forced more than 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes in the north of the country. Nearly 100,000 residents on the Lebanese side of the border also evacuated, but the death toll remained low. That changed after a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan heights killed 12 Druze children. In addition to its goals to destroy Hamas and returning hostages, Israel added a third goal on September 16:  the safe return of residents near the border with Lebanon to their homes.  The next day, hundreds of pagers belonging to Hezbollah militants exploded, and the day after, Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded. Then Israeli airstrikes killed two top Hezbollah leaders.  Hezbollah launched that lone ballistic missile at Tel Aviv Wednesday, in defense, it said.  CNN 

US troops deployed to Cyprus as wider Middle East war looms.  Dozens of US troops deployed to Cyprus are preparing for a range of contingencies, including a possible evacuation of US citizens from Lebanon. Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said this week that the US military would send “a small number of US military personnel forward” to the region “out of an abundance of caution.” He declined to give specifics. The UK announced on Tuesday that it was sending 700 troops to Cyprus to prepare for a possible evacuation of British citizens from Lebanon.  US officials are watching Iran closely.  Tehran has not intervened yet, but will if Hezbollah suffers decisive losses, CNN reported.  CNN 

Israel’s new strategy to defeat Hezbollah. Israeli military strategists have learned from the IDF’s failure to achieve a conclusive victory over Hezbollah in the 2006 conflict.  Back then, they’ve concluded, Israel simply didn’t have enough solid intelligence about targets whose destruction would cripple Hezbollah.  Today, officials say, Israel has amassed a bank of thousands of vetted targets, contrasted with mere dozens at the start of the 2006 war.  Intelligence accumulated during limited clashes over the years has enabled Israel’s military intelligence to update its targets list, using satellites, drones and human intelligence.  Shlomo Mofaz, former head of the counterterrorism arena at IDF intelligence, says Israel now has a detailed “intelligence picture” of Hezbollah's assets.  Financial Times

Turkey readying for potential evacuation of citizens, foreigners from Lebanon. A source from the Turkish defense ministry on Thursday said Ankara is preparing for the possible evacuation of its citizens and foreign nationals from Lebanon due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The source confirmed that the military has the resources and capability to conduct such an evacuation if needed. Preliminary planning for the operation is underway, with Turkey closely monitoring the situation in Lebanon. Reuters 

Thousands of Australian citizens in Lebanon instructed to leave. Australia has advised its estimated 15,000 citizens living in Lebanon to leave the country due to escalating violence and the potential closure of Beirut airport, which would complicate evacuation efforts. This warning comes as Israel intensifies airstrikes in Lebanon, killing at least 72 people on September 25th, and the growing possibility of a ground assault. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that contingency plans, including possible evacuations by sea, are being prepared, though details were not provided due to national security concerns. Canberra is coordinating with allies, though the situation is challenging given the large number of Australians in Lebanon. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Warns U.N. Against Ceding to Russia’s ‘Insane’ Desire for Land. In his address Wednesday to the United Nations General Assembly, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned world leaders against conceding to Russia's territorial ambitions. He emphasized that allowing Russia to freeze the war and continue its land grabs would not only disregard the suffering of Ukrainians but also give Vladimir Putin more leverage to extend the conflict. Zelensky stressed that the Kremlin’s desire for more land was "insane" and that Ukraine’s sovereignty was at stake. He also pointed out that efforts to push for a quick end to the war without addressing these realities would play into Russia’s hands, enabling further aggression. New York Times

Zelensky warns U.N. that Russia is preparing to attack nuclear plants. During his Wednesday speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia has destroyed all of Ukraine's thermal power plants and most of its hydroelectric capacity through nine coordinated attacks on its electricity infrastructure from March to August. But the worst may be yet to come. Russian President Vladimir Putin “does seem to be planning attacks on our nuclear power plants and infrastructure, aiming to disconnect the plants from the power grid,” Zelensky said. “If, God forbid, Russia causes a nuclear disaster at one of our nuclear power plants, radiation will not respect state borders.” Ukraine has three remaining nuclear power plants. A fourth, its largest, has been under Russian control since March 2022. The attacks have led to severe energy shortages, with the International Energy Agency estimating Ukraine could face a 6-gigawatt shortfall this winter – about a third of its winter needs. These assaults aim to leave Ukrainians in darkness and cold, the Ukrainian leader said, hoping to force a surrender. Washington Post  Kyiv Independent

Transcript of Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech. The Kyiv Independent has published a transcript of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Wednesday speech at the United Nations General Assembly.Kyiv Independent

U.S. ‘Unimpressed’ With Ukraine’s Victory Plan Ahead of Biden-Zelensky Meeting. The Biden administration is skeptical of Ukraine's newly presented "victory plan," which mainly seeks more weapons and loosening restrictions on long-range missile usage, U.S. officials say. Despite months of promotion, President Zelensky’s plan lacks a clear strategy for winning the war, disappointing U.S. and European officials. The Ukrainian leader is set to present the framework to President Biden, but concerns persist that the plan largely repacks previous requests. Some European leaders, like Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, advocate for giving Ukraine full access to long-range weapons, while others, including Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, oppose it. Wall Street Journal

US prepares $8 billion in arms aid packages for Zelenskiy visit, sources say. During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington, the U.S. is set to announce over $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine. This includes a $5.6 billion drawdown from U.S. weapons stocks, which must be approved before the fiscal year ends on September 30. Additionally, $2.4 billion will be allocated through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, allowing the U.S. to purchase weapons from defense companies for Ukraine. The aid package includes munitions, anti-drone weapons, and support for Ukraine's ammunition production. Notably, it features the Joint Standoff Weapon, a precision-guided bomb with a range of 81 miles. Reuters The Hill 

Putin lowers the threshold of nuclear response as he issues new warnings to the West over Ukraine. In a new warning to the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a revision to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, stating that any conventional attack on Russia, if supported by a nuclear power, will be viewed as a joint attack. This revision lowers the threshold for Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons, including in response to a massive air attack. The change aims to deter Western countries from enabling Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory with long-range weapons. Putin’s broader nuclear posture underscores Russia’s willingness to respond forcefully, further complicating Western support for Ukraine. Associated Press Reuters Financial Times 

Putin to speak on nuclear deterrence as Ukraine tensions rise. President Vladimir Putin will chair a meeting of Russia's Security Council on nuclear deterrence on Wednesday as Moscow weighs a response to Ukraine's requests that the U.S. allow it to strike deep into Russia with long-range Western missiles. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the meeting of the Security Council, a type of modern-day politburo of Putin's most powerful officials, including influential hawks, was an important event. "There will be a speech by the president," Peskov told reporters. "The rest, for obvious reasons, will be marked 'top secret'." Reuters

Biden administration pledges new glide bombs to Ukraine. The Biden administration has pledged to send Ukraine Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) glide bombs as part of a $375 million security assistance package. These glide bombs, which Ukraine’s F-16 fighters can deploy, have retractable wings that allow them to strike targets up to 70 miles away. The version being sent includes cluster munitions. This marks the first time Ukraine will receive JSOW bombs, providing a boost to its military capabilities as it defends against Russian aggression. ABC News

Key facts about Russia's highly destructive 'glide bombs'. Russia is increasingly using highly destructive guided "glide bombs" in its invasion of Ukraine, with over 900 dropped in a single week. These air-launched bombs, often Soviet-era ordnance upgraded with wings and satellite navigation, are cheaper and more abundant than missiles. Weighing between 500-3,000 kilograms, they are difficult to counter, causing significant damage to fortified Ukrainian positions and civilian areas. Ukraine is urging Western allies to send more air defense systems and allow strikes deep into Russia to neutralize the threat. Kyiv’s best defense is targeting the planes dropping these bombs. Reuters

One killed in Russian airstrike on Ukraine. Russia launched an overnight airstrike on Ukraine early Thursday, killing one person and damaging critical infrastructure. The Ukrainian military reported 78 drones and six missiles were fired, with air defenses destroying most. A woman died in Odesa, while eight were injured in Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv faced drone attacks, causing damage to cars and gas pipes. Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, and Chernihiv saw power outages. Russia continues targeting Ukraine's infrastructure. Reuters

How China plans to get more backers for its Ukraine peace plan at the UN. ​​China is quietly rallying support at the United Nations for its Ukraine peace plan, which aims to prevent Russia from losing the war. According to a Ukrainian government document, Beijing is seeking backing from countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa to freeze the conflict's battle lines. The plan, co-authored with Brazil, includes no battlefield expansion and continued Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is concerned, circulating the document among diplomats and urging allies to reject the proposal. The U.S. opposes the plan, arguing it overlooks Russia’s aggression and undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty. Politico

Zelensky takes aim at China, Brazil push for peace in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed China and Brazil's efforts to broker peace in Ukraine, criticizing their push for an alternative to his 10-point peace plan. At the United Nations General Assembly, Zelensky warned that such proposals, including the China-Brazil initiative, would only allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong the war. He questioned the motives behind these peace plans. Zelensky reiterated that only his plan, based on international law and the U.N. Charter, would lead to a just and lasting peace. Reuters

Turkey will not 'be rushed' on Ukraine NATO membership, Erdogan tells NBC News. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Turkey would not rush its decision on supporting Ukraine's NATO membership, emphasizing the importance of considering the stance of other alliance members. Erdoğan also noted expanding relations with Russia, underscoring Turkey's multi-dimensional political and economic ties with Moscow. His cautious approach to NATO enlargement, referencing past delays for Sweden and Finland, may disappoint Ukraine’s President Zelensky, who seeks a fast track to NATO membership. Erdoğan also reiterated his controversial stance on Hamas, rejecting the label of "terrorist organization," which has drawn criticism from Western allies who support Israel. NBC News

US House Republicans want Biden administration to declassify Ukraine report. U.S. House Republicans are demanding the Biden administration release an unclassified version of its strategy report on the war in Ukraine. The request comes ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Congress, which has approved nearly $175 billion of aid and military assistance for Ukraine and allied nations in the 2 1/2 years since Russia's full-scale invasion. Lawmakers, preparing for potential future funding votes, argue that the public deserves transparency on how taxpayer money is being spent. The Biden administration had submitted the classified report in response to a requirement from a multibillion-dollar spending bill. Reuters

Speaker Johnson demands Ukrainian ambassador be fired as GOP probes Zelensky visit. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans are criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to a Pennsylvania munitions factory, claiming it was a partisan event supporting Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris. Johnson has demanded the firing of Ukraine's U.S. Ambassador, Oksana Markarova, over alleged election interference. Republicans are also upset over Zelensky’s criticism of Sen. JD Vance, who opposes U.S. aid to Ukraine. Democrats have dismissed these claims, accusing Republicans of undermining Ukraine, which they see as a key ally in its fight against Russia’s invasion. The Hill

Donald Trump says Ukraine is 'dead' and dismisses its defense against Russia's invasion. In a striking speech in North Carolina on Wednesday, former President Donald Trump described Ukraine as “demolished” and its people as “dead,” criticizing its leadership for not making concessions to Russia before the 2022 full-scale invasion. Trump argued that even a bad deal would have been better than the current devastation, claiming Ukraine has no bargaining power left. He blamed President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for escalating the conflict by providing Ukraine with aid instead of pushing for territorial concessions to Russia. Trump reiterated his belief that, if reelected, he could end the war, although he refrained from condemning Putin directly. CTV News ABC News

Trump unlikely to meet Zelensky, sources say. Donald Trump is unlikely to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his U.S. visit, despite earlier suggesting he might. Sources close to Trump said the chances of a meeting diminished after Zelensky’s visit to a Pennsylvania munitions factory alongside Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, which the Trump campaign viewed as a political move. While no formal meeting was scheduled, Trump’s focus has shifted to campaigning in the final stretch before the November election. Reuters Bloomberg

Republicans follow Trump’s lead of icing out Zelensky. Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, following former President Donald Trump's criticism of his handling of the war. Trump blamed Zelensky for not making a deal with Russia and questioned continued U.S. support. House Republicans launched an investigation into Zelensky’s recent visit to a Pennsylvania munitions plant, accusing him of political interference. GOP senators warned Zelensky to stay out of American politics after he criticized Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate. The developments reflect a growing divide within the GOP over continued U.S. involvement in Ukraine. CNN Associated Press

Facing GOP attacks, Zelensky looks to sell the White House on victory. Facing growing Republican criticism, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pressing the Biden administration for more military aid and permission to use long-range Western missiles against Russia. While the administration plans to announce new funding, it remains hesitant to lift restrictions on missile usage, fearing escalation from Moscow. Zelensky’s visit comes amid attacks from GOP leaders over his recent Pennsylvania factory visit and remarks about Sen. JD Vance, prompting accusations of election interference. Despite Republican skepticism, some GOP allies continue to defend U.S. support for Ukraine as crucial in its fight against Russia. Politico

On Ukraine’s Eastern Front, 100 Miles of High-Stakes Struggle. Russian forces are intensifying their attacks across a 100-mile front in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, targeting key strongholds from Chasiv Yar in the north to Vuhledar in the south. Ukrainian soldiers struggle to defend these strategically critical cities, hubs for troop and supply movement. Vuhledar, in particular, risks encirclement as Russian troops gain ground. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces face staggering casualties, with over 200 clashes reported daily. Despite halting some Russian advances, Ukraine’s military is strained, defending vital positions like Pokrovsk, a critical rail and road hub. The battles are exhausting, with grim prospects of cities being leveled. President Vladimir Putin's objective in Donetsk is to secure full control of the region, which is part of the broader Donbas area—a long-coveted prize for Russia. New York Times

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, September 25, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten nuclear confrontation to influence Western decision-making and prevent Ukraine from using Western weapons to strike Russian targets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is planning attacks on Ukraine's nuclear power plants to degrade its energy infrastructure ahead of winter. A Russian company is collaborating with Chinese entities to develop long-range attack drones for use in Ukraine.

Russia is engaging in Iran-brokered talks to potentially transfer missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces continued to regain positions in Vovchansk. Russian forces advanced northwest of Kreminna, in Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, and within and around Vuhledar amid continued offensive efforts to seize the settlement. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: As Putin’s military barbarism continues, U.S. credibility is at stake. George F. Will warns that U.S. credibility is at risk if it does not firmly support Ukraine in its war against Russia. He criticizes the Trump-Vance ticket for underestimating the threat posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression and highlights the dangers of U.S. timidity in backing Ukraine. Will argues that Ukraine’s success is vital to deter future conflicts, as failure could embolden adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, potentially leading to further global instability and conflict. Washington Post

Opinion: Putin’s Pals Realize How Much They’ve Screwed Up with the Ukraine War. Julia Davis highlights increasing panic among Russian state TV pundits over Ukraine’s counterattacks and the prolonged war. Discussions on long-range strikes deep into Russian territory have left Kremlin supporters uneasy. Prominent figures, including Tigran Keosayan, criticized the idea of nuclear retaliation, which shocked usual hardliners like Vladimir Solovyov. Some pundits even acknowledged Russia’s miscalculation in believing Ukraine would welcome them. As support for former President Trump wanes, Russian commentators worry that without his return, U.S. aid to Ukraine will continue, prolonging the war indefinitely. The Daily Beast

AMERICAS

Congress greenlights bill forestalling government shutdown ahead of upcoming election.  The U.S. House and Senate on Wednesday passed a bill to fund federal agencies until late December, averting a government shutdown before the upcoming election. The bill was approved by large majorities in both chambers, despite some Republican dissatisfaction with the lack of spending cuts and the use of short-term funding solutions. The measure now awaits President Biden's signature. The temporary funding extends government operations until December 20, giving Congress more time to negotiate a full-year budget. It includes $231 million for the Secret Service and bypasses a proposed voter-ID requirement that was supported by former President Trump but opposed by Democrats. The decision to pass the short-term funding bill reflects a lack of desire for a government shutdown, especially with the upcoming elections. House Speaker Mike Johnson relied on both Democratic and Republican votes to get the bill passed, emphasizing the need to avoid a shutdown that could harm national security and critical programs. There is still uncertainty, however, about whether Congress can agree on a long-term budget before the new December deadline. Wall Street Journal NBC CBS New York Times 

Biden meets Vietnam’s to Lam amid efforts to counter Beijing, Moscow ties. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vietnamese Communist Party Leader To Lam met in New York during the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday to discuss deepening their strategic partnership, which was established last year when Biden visited Hanoi. The talks were aimed at strengthening ties between the two countries, focusing on economic cooperation, especially in semiconductors and supply chains, as well as cybersecurity. Both leaders emphasized their commitment to freedom of navigation and the rule of law, indirectly addressing regional maritime disputes with China. Lam, on his first U.S. visit as president, highlighted Vietnam's desire to continue its independent and multilateral foreign policy while seeking Washington’s support in removing trade restrictions, including Hanoi's designation as a non-market economy (NME). The two leaders also acknowledged the complex geopolitical environment Vietnam faces, especially concerning its relationships with China and Russia. Reuters Radio Free Asia Bloomberg  

Virginia court finds ex-CIA officer guilty of assaulting coworker at office gathering. Former CIA officer Donald James Asquith was found guilty on Wednesday of assaulting a female subordinate at an office party, highlighting ongoing concerns about how the CIA handles sexual assault and harassment cases. Asquith was convicted of misdemeanor assault and battery in a Virginia court and sentenced to six months. All but 24 hours of the sentence will be suspended. The incident occurred in June 2023, during a birthday party for Asquith, in which he made sexually inappropriate comments and physically assaulted the victim. Asquith has appealed the decision. The case is part of a broader pattern of alleged failures by the CIA to properly address such incidents. Recent high-profile cases and a House Intelligence Committee report have criticized the agency's handling of sexual assault allegations, citing a lack of accountability and inadequate reporting processes. The CIA has recently made efforts to improve these processes, including creating a dedicated office for handling assault and harassment claims and appointing a federal law enforcement officer to assist in investigations. CNN Associated Press Washington Post 

U.S. lawmakers set on bolstering American shipbuilding to offset Chinese dominance. Two American lawmakers, Representative Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), on Wednesday announced plans to introduce bipartisan legislation called the Ships for America Act to reinvigorate the U.S. shipbuilding industry. This move comes amid rising concerns about U.S. maritime capabilities, national security, and economic competition with China. The bill aims to address the decline in Washington’s maritime capacity, which has dropped from 10,000 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels after World War II to just 80 today, while Beijing has risen to become the dominant global shipbuilder. The proposed legislation would focus on regulatory reform, financial support, increasing shipbuilding capacity, and rebuilding the maritime workforce. It would also encourage a coordinated effort between government departments to strengthen the industry. The lawmakers are hopeful about securing bipartisan support for the bill, which is set to be introduced after Congress returns from recess. The announcement follows growing concerns about the national security threats posed by Chinese companies in the U.S. shipbuilding sector, particularly the presence of Chinese-made port cranes with potential surveillance capabilities. South China Morning Post Breaking Defense USNI News

EUROPE

Intel sources reveal secret Russian military drone project in China. Information obtained through documents seen by Reuters, as well as the statements of two sources from a European intelligence agency, revealed that Russia has set up a weapons program in China to develop and manufacture long-range attack drones for its conflict with Ukraine. A Russian state-owned arms company, IEMZ Kupol, has reportedly developed a new drone model, the Garpiya-3 (G3), with the help of unidentified Chinese specialists. This intel marks a critical development, as it suggests that whole weapon systems, not just components, are being supplied by China to Russia. The White House, NATO, and the U.K. Foreign Office have expressed concern, asserting that China has a responsibility to ensure its companies do not provide lethal aid to Moscow. Beijing, however, has denied involvement, stating that it remains neutral in the conflict and has strict control over drone exports. One expert suggested that more information was needed to verify these developments, as the Asian superpower would be unlikely to risk international sanctions for aiding Russia's so-called "special military operation.” Documents indicate that the Kremlin plans to scale up production of these drones in China and potentially establish a joint research and production center in Xinjiang province. The G3 drone is an upgraded version of a previous model, and there are plans to develop even more advanced drones, comparable to the U.S. Reaper drone, within eight months. Reuters 

WikiLeaks founder Assange to make first public appearance since release from prison.  Julian Assange, the controversial founder of WikiLeaks, will make his first public appearance since being released from a British jail when he addresses the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France on October 1st. Assange, who returned to Australia in June after agreeing to a deal that required him to plead guilty to violating U.S. espionage laws, will provide testimony to the human rights body in Strasbourg. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recently declared him a political prisoner and urged the U.S. to investigate whether he was subjected to inhumane treatment. Assange's legal troubles began in 2010 after WikiLeaks published leaked documents related to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, leading to U.S. charges under the Espionage Act. He has always denied any wrongdoing and was held in a high-security prison starting in 2019 after being removed from the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he had sought refuge. Politico The Hill Reuters 

MIDDLE EAST

“Collective punishment” and “unending raids:” Israeli bulldozers destroy miles of streets, infrastructure in the West Bank. Repeated Israeli military raids in the West Bank towns of Tulkarm and Jenin have caused extensive devastation, with armored bulldozers ripping up streets and alleys, damaging infrastructure, and indiscriminately destroying businesses, homes, and vegetation. The New York Times has analyzed video evidence backing up the accounts from residents about the ruin left behind from Israel’s intrusions, which have ravaged everything from a soccer field to pharmacies and commercial areas. The raids, supposedly part of Israel’s broader counterterrorism efforts, have severely impacted local residents, who report widespread damage to water, sewage, and power lines, as well as the obstruction of emergency services. Even the Internet, electricity and phone lines have been severed. Israel claims that it “undertakes all feasible precautions to avoid damaging essential infrastructure.” Airstrikes, a rarity in the West Bank until recently, have also increased, killing numerous Palestinians and raising fears among residents. Rights groups criticize these actions as violations of international law, warning that the continuous destruction may drive more people to join resistance groups. The raids have escalated tensions, with residents feeling increasingly targeted, under siege by relentless destruction and fearing further violence. New York Times

Iran is facing a predicament; how to maintain its many proxies while avoiding full-scale war. Tehran is facing significant challenges as Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, an operation that is applying serious pressure on Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to defend a key ally. Despite this, Iran has avoided escalating the conflict into a larger regional war, which its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, does not want. Instead, Pezeshkian is seeking to present a more moderate image on the world stage, hoping to restart nuclear negotiations that could relieve economic sanctions on Iran. The nation faces a quandary: it wants to maintain its deterrence against Israel and protect its meticulously curated network of regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, without getting directly involved in a full-scale war. Iran is wary of escalating the situation, which could draw in the U.S. and lead to significant consequences for the Islamic Republic. But Israel's recent actions, including attacks on Hezbollah and provocative tactics, are making this goal difficult. One expert asserts that Israel is intent on “trying to bait” Hezbollah into a conflict, which could provide the West-backed state with an opportunity to strike directly at Iran, “it’s real strategic threat.” However, both Hezbollah and Tehran are cautious about engaging in a clash that could lead to their destruction. Iran is also weighing its options regarding nuclear diplomacy with the West, but any significant weakening of Hezbollah might push it to reconsider its nuclear strategy. Iran's internal debate is ongoing, with hardliners advocating for a stronger response and moderates pushing for diplomatic engagement. The outcome of this situation could significantly impact the country’s future strategy, both in terms of its regional influence and its nuclear ambitions. New York Times

U.S. sanctions businesses that finance Hezbollah and IRGC. In a Wednesday press statement, the U.S. Department of State announced sanctions against one individual, Luay al-Mallah, and four entities, as well as unveiling the designation of nine vessels as blocked property. These actions target individuals and entities involved in illicit trade supporting Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force. The sanctions specifically focus on vessels linked to Syrian nationals Abdul Jalil Mallah and his brother Luay al-Mallah, who have been aiding Iran and Hezbollah's “destabilizing activities.” This move underscores the Washington’s ongoing efforts to disrupt networks that help Iran-aligned actors in the Middle East exploit the international financial system to fund their operations. State Department Jerusalem Post Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Japanese destroyer transits Taiwan Strait for first time. A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force vessel, the destroyer Sazanami, sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait for the first time on Wednesday, according to the Japanese news agency Kyodo. The destroyer was accompanied by ships from the Australian and New Zealand navies. This move, which is likely to embitter Beijing, is part of a transit to the South China Sea for exercises. The U.S. and its allies, including Britain and Australia, have previously conducted similar transits through the waterway, with Washington conducting "freedom of navigation" exercises. The transit follows recent tensions between Tokyo and Beijing, including the entrance of Chinese military aircraft in Japanese airspace and Japan’s protest of a new route taken by a Chinese aircraft carrier near Japanese islands. Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly approved the Sazanami's passage through the Taiwan Strait in response to these increasing tensions and intrusions by Beijing, signaling Tokyo's alignment with U.S. strategy in the region as well as its support for Taiwan. According to China’s state-backed Global Times, the PLA “followed and monitored” the trio of vessels “throughout the process and the situation was under control.” South China Morning Post  Nikkei Asia Kyodo News BBC 

“Divide and conquer:” Beijing leveraging new tactics with ASEAN as territorial disputes flare.  As relations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea become more strained, the Philippines has grown closer to the U.S., while China has intensified its assertive tactics, seeking to isolate Manila by exploiting diplomatic, military, and economic influence over other Southeast Asian countries. China's strategy appears to be aimed at preventing a united front against its expansive maritime claims and forcing the Philippines to yield through pressure. Beijing has also sought to strengthen ties with other Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia through diplomatic engagements and joint military exercises, in an effort to undermine the Philippines' position. Observers note that while China has been successful in deliberately dividing Southeast Asian nations, it has not fully succeeded in changing the stance of states like Jakarta, Hanoi, and Singapore, which quietly support Manila. Despite the growing tensions, China is cautious about provoking a conflict that could involve the U.S., given the potential consequences of triggering American defense commitments to the Philippines. South China Morning Post 

China and Philippines mull their next moves at contested Sabina Shoal, amid worries that conflict is unavoidable. Experts believe that China is likely to attempt to prevent the Philippines from deploying another ship at the South China Sea’s disputed Sabina Shoal, further escalating tensions between the two countries and powering up the risk of a conflict. After the Philippines recalled its vessel, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, earlier in September, China vowed to continue its law enforcement activities in the area to protect its claimed sovereignty. Manila subsequent;y sent a replacement vessel but kept its location secret to avoid attracting aggressive Chinese forces. Observers warn that a maritime conflict is probable, especially if the Philippines tries to return to Sabina Shoal. Beijing has a significant presence in the area, with multiple warships, coastguard vessels, and militia ships. And recent incidents, including a collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels, have only heightened concerns. The Asian giant may use forceful measures like water cannons or even another collision to block Manila’s ship from entering the shoal; in the past, they have blocked resupply missions. The Philippines may need to rely on its navy or seek support from external powers, including the U.S., to maintain its so-called “strategic presence” at the South China Sea hotspot. South China Morning Post 

AFRICA

Nations publish joint statement after U.N. Ministerial Meeting on peace in Sudan. The U.S., Germany, France, and the E.U. released a joint statement on Wednesday following a Ministerial Meeting on war-torn Sudan held during the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The meeting included representatives from various international organizations and countries. Participants of the gathering expressed serious concern over the worsening conflict in Sudan and reiterated commitments made in previous agreements, urging warring parties—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—to cease hostilities and engage in negotiations. The participants called for the protection of civilians and humanitarian access, condemned foreign military support to the conflict, and supported the creation of a mechanism to monitor ceasefire compliance. The meeting underscored the need for an inclusive political process involving civilian actors to achieve a peaceful and democratic Sudan. State Department UNHCR

CYBER, TECH AND MARKETS

OpenAI’s chief technology officer, two other executives, to leave company amid leadership changes. Mira Murati, OpenAI's Chief Technology Officer, announced her departure from the company on Wednesday, joining other high-profile exits including chief research officer Bob McGrew and vice-president of research Barret Zoph. This leadership shake-up follows several departures from OpenAI, a company that has recently faced internal challenges, including last year's brief ousting of CEO Sam Altman. Only two of the San Francisco start-up’s 11 founders remain. Murati, who joined the company in 2018 played a key role in developing ChatGPT, cited a desire for personal exploration as her reason for leaving. The company is currently navigating significant transitions, including changes to its corporate structure to help raise new funds, while continuing its mission to develop AI technologies. One former employee noted that OpenAI’s goals have shifted, becoming more of a “normal tech company . . . more product-oriented and winning-oriented and less altruistic.” Financial Times The Washington Post Reuters CNN  

New China-linked hacking operation sought sensitive internet provider data.  China-linked hackers in recent months have breached U.S. internet service providers (ISP) in a campaign dubbed Salt Typhoon, according to sources.  The goals of the ISP hacks reportedly involved accessing sensitive information stored by broadband networks or setting the stage for cyberattacks.  Salt Typhoon is the latest in a series of China-linked system compromise operations revealed by U.S. authorities.  Last week the FBI disclosed an operation called Flax Typhoon that involved Chinese threat actors seeking to penetrate U.S. networks through internet connected consumer devices.   The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment on the Salt Typhoon report.  Cybereason, a U.S. cybersecurity firm, in 2019 reported that found Chinese cyberespionage actors hacked into cellular networks of global carriers to extract geolocation data, text messages, and call logs.  Wall Street Journal

FBI examining venture capital firm as possible source of tech start-up data to China.  A U.S. venture capital fund, Hone Capital, is being investigated by the FBI to determine possible involvement by the firm in providing tech start-up trade secrets to China.  Hone Capital launched in 2015 with an initial $115 million capital investment from the China Science & Merchants Investment Management Group.  In less than three years Hone reportedly invested in 360 tech start-ups, including the Cruise autonomous car maker and Boom aerospace firm.  According to sources, the FBI probe is focusing on whether Hone Capital shared information with its Beijing-based owner or Chinese authorities concerning the technology, financing, and client roster of start-up firms.  The FBI has not commented on the investigation.  One of the possibilities raised by people familiar with the investigation is that Hone’s funding may include money from Chinese government sources.  Over the summer, the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center advised tech start-ups that investments may be used by foreign adversaries to acquire sensitive data.  The FBI reportedly has interviewed past Hone employees and start-up executives about the risk of intellectual property transfer to China.  Hone’s Chinese parent company is said to have transferred some Hone holdings to a different U.S. entity under its control.  Sources familiar with Hone operations say that the investment fund did not have access to sensitive information from many of the start-ups it invested in.  Financial Times   TechCrunch

Leading Federal IT vendor’s Virginia headquarters raided by FBI.  A Virginia-based technology firm, Carahsoft, was raided on Tuesday by FBI agents who gathered documents and computers.  Carahsoft is a large distributor of IT products for government agencies.  A Carahsoft spokesperson confirmed that Department of Justice officials were at the company’s headquarters to conduct “an investigation into a company in which Carahsoft has done business in the past” adding that “Carahsoft is fully cooperating on this matter.”  An FBI representative acknowledged a “court-authorized law enforcement activity” in the vicinity of Carahsoft offices but did not elaborate.  Carahsoft is described as a “dominant player” in the Federal technology procurement system, with $11 billion in revenue and a staff of 2400 employees.  Carahsoft partners with thousands of IT vendors and systems integrators, including Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and CrowdStrike.  The company has secured contracts with agencies like the Social Security Administration, Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Treasury.  Bloomberg   NextGov 

U.S., Taiwan drone sectors in talks on expanding collaboration.  Current talks between U.S. and Taiwan officials are exploring possible collaborations to develop air and maritime platforms that are viewed as key to defending the island.  The talks, which are scheduled to end on Wednesday, involve over two dozen U.S. drone and anti-drone technology companies and Taiwan counterparts.  Taiwan officials have expressed a desire to expand their role in the drone supply chain for the U.S. and allies along the lines of Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor industry.  For their part, U.S. officials are looking to shrink American dependence on Chinese-made drones.  Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo told reporters that the U.S. drone sector has “certain capabilities, and they’re coming to find out about our capabilities.”  He added that Taiwan believes it “can become part of the international supply chain.”  The U.S. side in the talks includes Northrop Grumman and firms involved in the manufacture of subsea drones, drone detection technology, and unmanned aerial platforms.  Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, commented that a cooperative relationship with Taiwan is key,  “but it needs to be part of a broader strategy that includes shifting some production to more secure locations. This way, the U.S. can benefit from Taiwan’s capabilities without overexposing itself to geopolitical risks.”  New York Times

U.S. diplomatic cyber fund supports allies’ cyberspace defenses, incident responses.  The State Department’s cyber bureau is preparing to allocate $35 million for a number of foreign aid projects in an effort to develop international cyberspace norms and bolster allies’ digital operations.  The cyber bureau outlays are a new mission area for the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, which has received increasing funding for foreign assistance accounts, which now totals over $90 million.  The support for cyber operations and policymaking will go to countries like Ukraine, Albania, and Costa Rica.  Cyber ambassador Nathaniel Fick noted that prior assistance to foreign allies did not flow at the rate needed to meet needs, especially in the wake of large-scale cyberattacks.  Earlier shortcomings, Fick noted, provided “the impetus for going through all the effort and the bureaucratic process of creating these mechanisms has largely been based on real world lessons looking at those places.”  Fick remarked that “now we do have the tools. So, in the future, our response will be faster and more targeted.”  By October 1, the cyberspace bureau will conclude contracts for nine projects, including rapid cyber incident response and bolstering cloud-based security in the Pacific region.  The Record

Experts warn railroad vulnerabilities to cyberattack often overlooked.  Cyber experts have pointed to the digital vulnerabilities of railroad systems as a segment of U.S. critical infrastructure that does not receive adequate attention.  Grant Geyer, chief strategy officer of the Claroty operational technology firm, described railroads as “an area where national security, economic security, and public safety are front and center.  It’s incredibly important to put focus and spotlight in this area.”  Even as railroad control and safety has been improved by technological advances, increased dependence on digital systems has created opportunities for hackers to disrupt operations and trigger fatal crashes.  Experts believe that in the event of a conflict with a foreign adversary, railroads will be among the first pieces of infrastructure to experience cyberattacks.  As a result, in 2022, the Transportation Security Administration issued the first-ever federal railroad cyber regulations that required freight and passenger carriers and public-transit systems to implement basic security and incident reporting measures.  Another impact during a conflict would be efforts to hamper troop and materiel movements, a possibility highlighted by Annie Fixler, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation.  Fixler noted that disruptions of railroad operations would “degrade America’s ability to mobilize its forces.”  The Record

Kansas water treatment facility continues operations after weekend cyberattack.  The water treatment facility of a small Kansas City was forced to switch to manual operation in response to a cyberattack that was detected on Sunday.  Arkansas City officials informed authorities about the incident, triggering an investigation by Homeland Security and the FBI.  The city’s manager said the water supply is secure and the cyberattack did not affect operations at the water treatment facility.  A statement from the city confirmed that the facility “is operating under full control during this period.  The statement added that “enhanced security measures” have been instituted to protect the water supply.  On Saturday, the facility experiences difficulties with some pump systems and advised residents that low water pressure may occur.   The Arkansas City water plant cyber incident took place two days after the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center, a nonprofit water protection organization, issued a threat advisory warning of Russian-linked targeting of the water sector.  BleepingComputer

Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI among initial signatories of voluntary E.U. AI Pact.  Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are among the tech companies that have signed the AI Pact, an initiative of the European Commission to gain “voluntary pledges” on safeguards around AI development and deployment.  The Pact fills a gap that exists from the present until E.U. AI Act compliance requirements come into effect in several years.   The European Commission program aims to increase tech sector engagement and commitments in the transition to the community’s AI regulations.  Pact signatories are expected to commit to three “core actions,” including adoption of an AI governance strategy, identifications of high-risk AI systems, and enhancing staff understanding of ethical and responsible AI development.  Anthropic, Meta, Apple, and Mistral are among the tech sector’s leading companies that have not yet committed to the Pact.   TechCrunch

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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