Report for Thursday, September 19, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Israel moves troops north, announces ‘new phase of war’

Zelensky says Ukraine's victory plan is fully ready

Zelensky to address the UN Security Council on Tuesday.

U.S. says Iranian cyber hackers sent sensitive info on Trump to Biden’s campaign

U.S. maintaining missile system in Philippines as strain with China worsens

Dozens arrested following global operation’s infiltration of 'Ghost' cybercrime app

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Can High-Profile Cartel Arrests Halt the Fentanyl Traffic?The Cipher Brief

To Fight Fentanyl Traffic, U.S. Needs More Than Law Enforcement  The Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Latest: Israeli planes bomb southern Lebanon after radio blasts.  Israel bombed southern Lebanon following a series of sophisticated explosions involving Hezbollah's communication equipment, which killed 37 people and injured thousands. The attacks, involving booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies, have escalated tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with both parties exchanging fire across the border. Israel claims the conflict is part of a broader regional confrontation with Iran, which supports Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israel also announced that it thwarted an Iranian-led assassination plot targeting Prime Minister Netanyahu and other top officials. Despite ongoing military actions, the U.N. peacekeeping mission reports that the situation along the border has not drastically changed, though tensions remain high.  Reuters

Israel moves troops north, announces ‘new phase of war’.   “We are opening a new phase in the war,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote Wednesday on X, after announcing that Israeli troops would be moved to the north of the country. They will confront the Hezbollah fighters who have been firing rockets across the northern border, forcing residents of northern Israel to leave their homes and take refuge in the country’s center. The Israeli government has been under intense pressure to push Hezbollah away from the border so its citizens can return to their lives.  “We have many capabilities that we have not yet activated,” Israeli army chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said after approving new operational plans at Israel’s Northern Command Wednesday. But analysts fear that Israel’s pivot to the north will ignite a regional war.   Politico  

This time it’s walkie-talkies.  Walkie-talkie radios used by Hezbollah blew up across Lebanon's south Wednesday, killing 20 people and injuring more than 450. Wednesday’s explosions deepened the panic in Lebanon, where dozens of booby-trapped cell phones blew up Tuesday, killing 12, including two children, and injuring nearly 3,000.  Multiple reports attributed both rounds to Israel's spy agency Mossad, which had clearly exploited Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s televised speech last February, ordering senior Hezbollah commanders to get rid of their cellphones because the Israelis could follow the signals. According to a reconstruction by the New York Times, Israeli officials, anticipating Hezbollah’s pivot to pagers, had already set up a shell company in Hungary to produce pagers bearing the logo of a well-known Taiwanese pager company, Gold Apollo. Only, the pagers and walkie-talkies were counterfeits, booby-trapped with batteries containing a high explosive like PETN.  Hungarian officials denied that the pagers were made in their country. Wherever they were manufactured, there were thousands of them.  Hezbollah’s supply chain had been infiltrated. Experts agree the whole operation was planned over would many months or eve a couple of years,  New York Times  Reuters  Associated Press Wall Street Journal  Politico  

Israel's super-secret cyber warfare unit 8200 profiled.  Unit 8200 is Israel’s answer to the U.S. National Security Agency or Britain's GCHQ. It’s Israel’s largest single military unit. It came out of codebreaking and intelligence units formed in 1948.  Its activities range from signals intelligence to data mining and technological attacks and strikes.  Some of the operations include the 2005-10 Stuxnet virus attack that disabled Iranian nuclear centrifuges, a 2017 cyberattack on Lebanon's state telecoms company Ogero, and the thwarting of an ISIS attack on a civilian airliner traveling from Australia to the United Arab Emirates in 2018.  Reuters

Germany stops exporting weapons to Israel, source says.  A source close to the ministry cited a senior government official as saying it has stopped work on approving export licenses for arms to Israel.  Last year, Germany approved arms exports to Israel worth 326.5 million euros ($363.5 million), including military equipment and war weapons, ten times the number in 2022, according to data from the Economy Ministry, which approves export licenses.  Reuters 

UN General Assembly calls for end of Israeli occupation.  The United Nations General Assembly has overwhelmingly adopted a resolution calling on Israel to end its illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories within a year. The nonbinding measure passed 124-14 Wednesday, with 43 countries abstaining.  Al Jazeera 

China, in UN, accuses US of blocking Gaza ceasefire.  The U.S. has repeatedly “shielded” Israel over its war in Gaza, China said at the United Nations in New York. Over two days of meetings, Chinese diplomats accused Washington of blocking ceasefire efforts, adding that Israel ending its “unlawful presence” in Palestine was “not an option” but a “legal obligation." During a UN Security Council briefing on Monday, China’s deputy permanent representative questioned why the council had been “unable to stop this human tragedy, the worst of its kind to this day.”  South China Morning Post

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky to address the UN Security Council on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine. His visit to the U.S. will include presenting a "victory plan" to President Joe Biden. The Security Council has been deadlocked on action due to Russia's veto power, while Russian troops advance in eastern Ukraine despite Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk region last month. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Harris and Trump are expected to meet with Zelensky next week. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, D.C., next week. This meeting comes as concerns grow about the impact of U.S. election results on the Russia-Ukraine war and American policy.  Separately, ex-President Donald Trump said he will “probably” meet with Zelensky during the Ukrainian leader's U.S. visit. CNN

Zelensky says Ukraine's victory plan is fully ready. In his Wednesday evening address, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that all points of Ukraine's victory plan are ready to present to Washington during his upcoming meeting with President Joe Biden. The plan includes Ukraine's security, unrestricted foreign military aid, and economic support. Zelensky emphasized the importance of rejecting any conflict freeze. He praised Ukrainian forces for recent successful operations in Russia's Kursk and Tver oblasts as part of Ukraine's strategy. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s dramatic drone strikes on Russia are about making the case for more aid. Ukraine's drone strike early Wednesday on a weapons depot in Russia's Tver region, triggering powerful explosions detected by earthquake monitoring stations and NASA satellites, is part of its strategy to signal resilience and secure more military aid. The strikes, including the August Kursk incursion, aim to disrupt Russian logistics and strengthen Ukraine's position in future negotiations. Ukraine hopes to convince the U.S. to provide long-range weapons for strikes on military targets deep in Russia. However, while U.S. hesitancy remains, Ukraine has been using its home-produced UAVs to strike as deep as 1,800 kilometers into Russia. An official from the Security Service of Ukraine said that military intelligence and special forces carried out the drone attack in the Tver region, about 230 miles northwest of Moscow, which "literally wiped off the face of the earth a large warehouse of the main missile and artillery department of the Russian Defense Ministry.” Vox Kyiv Independent  Washington Post The Guardian Forbes USA Today Reuters

What was stored at the Russian arms depot in the Tver region struck by Ukraine's drones? The ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia, struck by Ukraine's drones, reportedly stored around 30,000 tons of military munitions, including explosives, artillery shells, ballistic missiles, fuel tanks, and missiles for Iskander and Tochka-U systems. The warehouse, renovated in 2018, was also said to house North Korean munitions. The blast, powerful enough to register as a minor earthquake, is expected to disrupt Russian military logistics, particularly affecting the northern group supplying troops in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk. Most of the ammunition is presumably stored underground, so the question is whether Ukraine used any drones that could have penetrated inside the bunkers. Damage to the underground storage bunkers was not immediately known due to thick smoke. The storage site covered an area of 5 square kilometers and a perimeter of more than 12 kilometers long. Euronews

Russian attacks kill 5, injure 31 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed five civilians and injured at least 31, authorities said on Thursday. Ukraine's Air Force reported downing all 42 drones launched by Russia overnight. In Kharkiv Oblast, shelling killed one person and injured seven others, while attacks in Zaporizhzhia killed a 74-year-old woman and injured two more. In Nikopol, a 42-year-old man was killed, and four others were injured, including a child. Casualties were also reported in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, and two people were killed in Sumy Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Russia attacks Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure, officials say. Overnight Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with Ukrainian officials on Thursday reporting damage and temporary power cuts in Sumy. Ukraine's air force intercepted 42 drones and a missile during the attacks. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission criticized the strikes, stating that Russia’s targeting of energy systems may violate international humanitarian law. These attacks, affecting power, water, and heating services, are considered war crimes by Ukraine, while Russia claims energy facilities are legitimate military targets. Reuters United Nations

Germany set to approve 397 million euros in Ukraine military aid, letter says. Germany is set to approve nearly 400 million euros in military aid to Ukraine, as detailed in a letter seen by Reuters on Thursday. This funding is deemed necessary due to the deteriorating military situation in Ukraine, and there is concern that without more support, Ukraine could face defeat. The additional funds are urgently required to implement aid measures by the end of 2024. The total budget for German military aid to Ukraine in 2024 is 8 billion euros. Reuters

EU to send 160 million euros from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday that 160 million euros from frozen Russian assets will be allocated to Ukraine's urgent winter humanitarian needs. Additionally, a fuel power plant from Lithuania will be dismantled and rebuilt in Ukraine, where 80% of thermal plants have been destroyed. Von der Leyen emphasized the goal of restoring 2.5 GW of power capacity, which amounts to 15% of Ukraine's energy needs. Reuters

Ammunition from India enters Ukraine, raising Russian ire. Artillery shells from India have been transferred to Ukraine through European customers, triggering Russian protests. While Indian arms exports officially restrict unauthorized transfers, Kyiv has received a small percentage of Indian munitions from European countries like Italy and the Czech Republic. India has not intervened, viewing this as an opportunity to expand its arms exports. Reuters

'Please save me': The Indians duped into fighting for Russia. Many of the 91 Indians lured into fighting for Russia in Ukraine have been discharged, with some safely returning home. Most were misled by agents promising money and jobs, only to end up in the war zone with little training. Nine Indians have died, and Indian authorities have arrested 19 for human trafficking. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the issue with President Vladimir Putin, Russia began releasing the men. Many survivors are traumatized, sharing harrowing stories of danger, death, and near-death experiences on the front lines. BBC

Russia’s Pokrovsk offensive slows, but relief looks temporary for Ukraine. Ukraine's defense of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast remains precarious as Russian forces advance, with fighting intensifying since spring. Russian troops have pushed over 20 kilometers closer to the city, threatening the strategic logistics hub. Despite reinforcements from Ukraine’s 15th National Guard Brigade, led by artilleryman Andrii, the situation is critical. Ukrainian forces face shortages of manpower and ammunition, struggling to hold positions. Although progress has been made in stalling the Russian offensive, systemic issues, including communication problems between units, leave Pokrovsk vulnerable, with the threat of encirclement still looming. Kyiv Independent

Russia's Kursk counteroffensive halted, Kyiv claims. Ukraine claimed Wednesday to have halted Russia's counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast, which aimed to retake Ukrainian-held territory. Despite minor Russian successes, Ukraine reports that the situation is now stabilized. Moscow said it recaptured 10 settlements; claims disputed by Kyiv. Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, which began in August, seized around 100 settlements. Kyiv Independent 

Russia advances in the Kursk region, commander says. Russia has captured two villages, Nikolayevo-Darino and Darino, in the western Kursk region, about 15 kilometers from Ukrainian-held front lines, a top Russian major general said on Thursday. These advances give Russian forces a stronger position to attack the Ukrainian logistical center in Sverdlikovo. The development follows Ukraine’s Aug. 6 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. While Russian forces claim progress, the battle continues, with both sides vying for strategic advantages. Reuters

Putin Is Under Pressure to Call Up More Troops for War of Attrition. Russia faces troop shortages as losses in Ukraine surpass recruitment rates. President Vladimir Putin rejected Defense Ministry calls for a new mobilization, wary of the political risks seen after the 2022 draft protests. Russia has recruited 190,000 volunteers this year, incentivized by doubling sign-up bonuses to $4,300. Despite these efforts, Russia struggles to maintain troop levels, shifting inexperienced conscripts and relocating forces from other regions. The pressure for another mobilization grows as battlefield demands intensify. Wall Street Journal

The US wants more clarity from Ukraine on the possible use of long-range weapons. The US is cautious about allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles deeper into Russia, seeking more clarity from Kyiv on how these weapons fit into its broader war strategy. Concerns include the limited impact and potential escalation risks, with President Vladimir Putin warning of greater conflict with NATO. Ukraine argues that striking deeper would target key military assets and pressure Russia toward peace. Associated Press

Political infighting is holding back Ukraine’s energy reconstruction. Political infighting and slow policy reforms undermine Ukraine's energy reconstruction amid Russian attacks on its infrastructure. Former Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi claimed his recent firing was politically motivated after he resisted government interference. Kudrytskyi warned that state inefficiency and overreach hinder energy recovery and may discourage Western aid. He advocates for a decentralized, resilient energy system involving private investment, a shift Ukraine's leadership is slow to embrace. Concerns are growing that without reform, Ukraine will face severe power outages this winter. Semafor

IEA recommends 10 steps for Ukraine's energy security ahead of winter. ​​The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a 10-step plan Thursday to help prepare Ukraine's energy infrastructure for winter. Key recommendations include securing critical energy infrastructure, speeding up repairs, decentralizing the power supply, and increasing energy efficiency. The IEA also advised boosting electricity and gas imports from the European Union, preparing alternative heating sources like LPG heaters, and building natural gas reserves. It emphasized the need for coordination and investment to create a resilient, EU-integrated energy system. Ukraine faces severe challenges due to Russian attacks on its energy grid. Kyiv Independent

Blackouts caused by Russian attacks driving Ukrainians abroad, UN monitor says. Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure between March and August 2024 severely damaged electricity plants, displacing 500,000 people and causing blackouts. A report by the United Nations said these strikes destroyed around 9 gigawatts of energy, half of what Ukraine needs in winter. They also contributed to an increase in Ukrainians leaving the country due to a lack of electricity, water, and heating. Experts warn of outages lasting 4 to 18 hours per day this winter, affecting daily life, including heating, water, and online education. Kyiv Independent

Kremlin calls Stoltenberg's comments on missile strikes on Russia 'dangerous'. The Kremlin labeled NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s comments on Ukraine using long-range Western weapons to strike Russia as "dangerous" and "provocative." Stoltenberg dismissed Putin’s red-line warning, suggesting Moscow wouldn’t escalate due to NATO's strength. Russian propaganda labeled Stoltenberg's stance as reckless while threatening potential nuclear responses. Stoltenberg said that nuclear war could not be won with Russian threats seen as bluffs aimed to discourage further Western military aid to Ukraine. Reuters

Antiwar film or propaganda? ‘Russians at War’ draws protests at festivals. The documentary Russians at War has sparked protests at film festivals, including in Toronto, where demonstrators and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland criticized its portrayal of Russian soldiers. Directed by Anastasia Trofimova, the film embeds with disillusioned Russian troops, showing their struggles but not directly challenging pro-Russian narratives. Supporters defend it as an antiwar film revealing underreported aspects of the war, while opponents argue it whitewashes Russian crimes and risks undermining support for Ukraine. Screenings faced disruptions amid safety concerns, and some funders withdrew support. Washington Post

Russia blames Ukraine for possible assassination attempt at Trump golf course. Russian state media and pro-Kremlin influencers are falsely claiming that Ukraine orchestrated the assassination attempt on Donald Trump at his Florida golf course. The suspect, Ryan Wesley Routh, is a supporter of Ukraine, but Kyiv denies any ties to him. This narrative is part of Russian disinformation aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. Despite these allegations gaining traction among some conservative commentators, no evidence links Ukraine to the incident. Washington Post

ANALYSIS–Is Ukraine’s Offensive Working? Perhaps. Doug Livermore’s analysis suggests Ukraine’s six-week offensive in Russia’s Kursk region is starting to show results, diverting Russian forces from eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have forced Moscow to redeploy 40,000 soldiers, with another 20,000 reportedly coming. Ukraine's special operations forces excel in ambushes and precision strikes, disrupting Russian supply lines and infrastructure. Despite Russian gains in eastern Ukraine, their progress has slowed, and Ukraine's hold on over 100 settlements in Kursk presents a challenge for Russia. The operation also weakens Russian morale and control over its territory. Center for European Policy Analysis

ANALYSIS–Does America Want Ukraine to Defeat Russia? It Doesn’t Look That Way. Matthew Kaminski argues that President Joe Biden faces a critical decision on whether to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided long-range missiles to strike deeper into Russia. While Ukraine's leadership pushes for expanded military actions, Biden's administration remains cautious, fearing escalation. The issue will shape Biden’s foreign policy legacy as he navigates balancing support for Ukraine with potential risks. Kaminski highlights the growing pressure on the U.S. to define its ultimate goal in Ukraine. Politico

Ukrainians Use Captured Russian Artillery to Defend Donbas Town. Ukrainian forces are holding back Russian assaults in the Donbas town of Selydove using a howitzer called Violetta, which was captured from Russian troops two years ago. RFE/RL

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, September 18, 2024. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian missile and ammunition depot in Toropets of Tver Oblast, causing secondary explosions, including Iskander and Tochka-U missiles. Repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics are pressuring Russia's military operations and forcing troop redeployments. Separately, Russian officials arrested the head of the Central Military District's armor service for bribery amid broader anti-corruption efforts under Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Meanwhile, an armed assault on Moscow-based retailer Wildberries underscored Russia's domestic instability, and Armenia criticized the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization as relations between Yerevan and Moscow worsen.

Battlefield update: In Russia, Ukrainian forces advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, amid continued Ukrainian assaults, while Russian forces regained positions within the salient. In Ukraine, Russian forces advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, within Toretsk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The harsh truth behind Ukraine’s peace prospects. Jakub Parusinski argues that while rumors of peace in Ukraine circulate the reality is grim. Russia shows little interest in negotiations, pushing aggressive demands like control of Donbas, Odesa, and Kharkiv. Ukraine continues to resist, relying on asymmetric tactics and long-range strikes. Western pressure for a diplomatic solution grows, but the gap between both sides remains vast. Ukraine’s allies face the challenge of preventing further Russian advances while managing internal discontent and the looming threat of another harsh winter. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: It’s time to let Ukraine join NATO. Ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson argues that NATO allies should let Ukraine join now. He emphasizes that Ukraine's inclusion in the alliance would strengthen its position in the war and send a clear message to Russia, denying it any imperial claims. Johnson criticizes delays in providing Ukraine with weapons and calls for NATO membership to be extended to current Ukrainian-controlled territories, ensuring clarity and peace. He concludes that this is the most decisive step to ending the war. The Spectator

AMERICAS

U.S. says Iranian cyber hackers sent sensitive info on Trump to Biden’s campaign. Iranian cyber hackers, linked to Tehran’s government, stole private information from GOP nominee Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and sent it to people associated with President Joe Biden’s team during the summer, according to U.S. law enforcement officials. Federal agencies, including the FBI, confirmed that these hackers emailed excerpts of “stolen, non-public” Trump campaign material to Biden campaign affiliates, though there is no evidence that the Biden team responded or used the material. Trump on Wednesday accused Biden of involvement in the theft. The hackers’ actions are part of Iran’s broader attempt to influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and its moves are similar to tactics used by Russia in 2016. Moscow seized emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign officials, as well as the Democratic National Committee, and sent them to WikiLeaks. American officials believe that hackers associated with Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted and penetrated the email account of Roger Stone, a political consultant and friend to Trump, in an effort to gain access to other accounts and campaign networks. The Iranian government has repeatedly denied these allegations, calling them “fundamentally unfounded, and wholly inadmissible.” The incident is part of ongoing foreign efforts to meddle in U.S. elections, with both Iran and Russia being active participants. U.S. tech companies are under scrutiny for not doing enough to curb such disinformation on their platforms. France 24 CNN BBC 

Boeing forced to furlough white-collar employees as strike continues. Boeing is furloughing tens of thousands of white-collar employees as part of cost-cutting measures to avoid a potential credit-rating downgrade amid a strike by its largest union. The furloughs will require affected employees to take one week off without pay every four weeks during the strike, which has halted production of the 737 and other jets and could cost Boeing up to $500 million per week. Boeing’s operations were already losing about $1 billion a month before the strike. Boeing's executives, including CEO Kelly Ortberg, will take a 25% pay cut during the strike. The company has also announced a freeze on hiring and pay increases. However, the union representing about 17,000 Boeing engineers claims their contract prohibits furloughs and requires payouts in case of layoffs. The strike began after Boeing's machinists’ union, representing 33,000 workers, rejected a labor deal offering a 25% wage increase over four years. The union and planemaker have resumed negotiations with the help of a federal mediator, but the union has expressed frustration over the company's unwillingness to address key issues like wages and pensions. Wall Street Journal BBC CNBC

Secret Service briefs House task force on attempted Trump shooting, increases security.  The Secret Service briefed members of a bipartisan House task force on an alleged second attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, which occurred on Sunday in Florida. The task force, led by Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.), praised the Secret Service for making necessary adjustments and providing Trump with security at a level comparable to that of a sitting president, as ordered by President Biden after a previous incident on July 13. This was the first full briefing with the Secret Service for the task force since the golf course incident, and they have also requested a briefing with the FBI. The task force is also considering a site visit to West Palm Beach, where the incident occurred, although no official trip has been scheduled yet. Some members of the panel are already planning to visit Florida individually. Politico

Congressional panels hear how the U.S. is lagging behind China in reading for next conflict. Congressional panels on Wednesday heard concerns that the U.S. is falling behind China in military preparedness due to outdated and bureaucratic processes within the Pentagon. Both Republicans and Democrats supported efforts like the AUKUS partnership between the U.S., Britain, Australia, but criticized delays in technology transfers crucial for these alliances. Lawmakers and experts warned that Washington needs a larger and more technologically advanced military to handle simultaneous threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The panels underscored the need for the U.S. to improve its defense procurement system, which they described as antiquated and inefficient, focusing too much on expensive hardware rather than modern, flexible technology like drones. Witnesses highlighted the risk of a near-term global conflict, warning that the current American defense strategy is outdated and inadequate for the challenges posed by Beijing and its allies. They stressed the importance of alliances and the necessity that the government better anticipate and prepare for future threats rather than merely reacting to crises. South China Morning Post

EUROPE

Finnish president calls for reforms, seeks to end U.N. Security Council’s single state veto. Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, has called for significant reforms to the U.N. Security Council, including expanding its permanent membership from five to ten members, abolishing the single state veto power, and suspending any member engaged in an illegal war, such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Stubb, who plans to voice these proposals at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in New York, suggested adding permanent members from Latin America, Africa, and Asia to give these regions more influence within the U.N. He also asserted that "no single state should have veto power in the U.N. Security Council.” Stubb acknowledged that his proposals go “beyond” what smaller member states typically suggest, but argued that such reforms are necessary to prevent countries from the global South from turning away from the U.N. He also expressed strong support for Ukraine and urged Western nations to remove restrictions on the use of donated arms to Kyiv, allowing it to fully defend itself against Moscow. Stubb dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats, noting that global pressure, including from China, has previously forced Putin to back down. Reuters

Europe must be ready for a confrontation with Russia in 6-8 years. Andrius Kubilius, the nominee to become the European Union's first defense commissioner, on Wednesday stressed the urgency for the E.U. to strengthen its defenses, warning that Russia could be ready for a confrontation with NATO and the bloc within six to eight years. Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister, has been tasked with bolstering the E.U.'s arms industry by encouraging increased spending on European weapons, joint procurement, and cross-border cooperation among defense companies. His role reflects the heightened importance of security on the continent following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Kubilius plans to collaborate with E.U. leaders to assess the resources needed for military preparedness, seeking to conclude an exploratory study within his first 100 days. Kubilius, who anticipates challenges from E.U. governments reluctant to cede control of their defense industries, aims to invest over 500 billion euros in Europe's defense industries. Though he is uncertain about the funding sources, he has suggested options like joint defense bonds, post-pandemic recovery funds, or the European Investment Bank. Reuters

E.U. considering extending sanctions on exports to Russia. The E.U. is mulling the idea of expanding its sanctions against Russia to include foreign subsidiaries of European companies, aiming to curb the flow of sensitive goods reaching Moscow through intermediaries in countries like China. This move is part of ongoing efforts to tighten controls on goods crucial to Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. The idea involves extending the current ban on reselling to Russia to these subsidiaries. However, the proposal has faced resistance from businesses, as it could affect production in countries not aligned with E.U. sanctions. The European Commission is conducting an impact assessment to explore how such an extension might function. This approach reflects concerns that electronics and other goods outsourced to third countries could end up in Russia, which uses a vast network of intermediaries. The bloc’s efforts also include tracking financial flows that facilitate the shipment of goods to Russia through third countries. The E.U. and its G7 partners are set to meet soon to discuss and coordinate on financial sanctions against the Kremlin. Financial Times

Russia detains another top military figure on corruption charges. Major General Denis Putilov, a senior official of Russia’s Central Military District, has been arrested by the Kremlin's Investigative Committee on a charge of accepting a bribe of over 140 million rubles (around $1.5 million) from a private company in exchange for military equipment repair contracts.  If convicted, 45-year-old Putilov could face up to 15 years in prison. This arrest is part of a broader crackdown on corruption within the military and Defense Ministry, following the appointment of Andrei Belousov as defense minister, who replaced Sergei Shoigu in May. Several high-ranking officials have been arrested on similar charges since the leadership change.  RFE/RL

MIDDLE EAST

Turkey claims it struck, neutralized PKK targets in Iraq’s north. The Turkish Defense Ministry has announced the destruction of 24 targets belonging to the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on Wednesday, after Ankara’s air strikes were launched at locations in northern Iraq. Many militants were reportedly "neutralized" in the attack; Turkey generally uses the term to mean killed. The missions were targeted at PKK storage areas, caves, and bases in the regions of Hakurk, Gara, Qandil and Asos. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Pager explosions in Lebanon could fuel greater caution in China about electronic devices. Analysts believe that a series of pager explosions in Lebanon and Syria, which killed 12 people and injured thousands, has raised concerns in China about the weaponization of electronic products. The explosions were allegedly orchestrated by Israel, which reportedly implanted explosive materials in pagers made by a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo, before they were imported to Lebanon. The attack has been viewed as a sophisticated use of digital and kinetic tactics to target adversaries, and it highlights the potential for global supply chains to be exploited for asymmetric warfare. The incident has sparked fears in China about the security of electronic devices made by the U.S. and its allies, including Taiwan. One research fellow said Beijing could potentially “cast an even more wary eye on other Taiwanese industries.” Another expert said that some battery-powered products, like high-intensity flashlights and headlamps, could present a steeper risk than China’s smartphones and energy vehicles, which generally have the “highest level of battery protection.” The weaponization of everyday devices for remote-triggered explosions is considered to be a worrying trend in modern warfare. South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s security units 'paying great attention' to Lebanon pager blasts. Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo said that national security officials are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East following the detonation of thousands of pagers targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The attention comes after a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo, was linked to the pagers used in the attack. However, Gold Apollo has denied manufacturing the devices, stating they were made by a Hungary-based company licensed to use its brand. Koo confirmed that national security bodies are “paying great attention” to the developments. While Taipei has unofficial ties with Israel, there has been no security or intelligence exchange regarding the explosions. The Taiwanese government reassured the public that pagers exported from the island are not prone to explosions and warned against online rumors falsely linking Taipei to the incident. Reuters

U.S. maintaining missile system in Philippines as strain with China worsens. Despite increasing pressure from China, the U.S. does not plan to withdraw its Typhon missile system deployed in the Philippines. The system, which is capable of launching missiles that can strike targets in China, was originally brought in for joint exercises but has remained in place as Washington and Manila test its feasibility for regional conflict scenarios. The United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) is responsible for determining how long the missile system will remain, and troops are still training with it. The deployment of the system in northern Luzon, near the Taiwan Strait, has been seen as a strategic move amid rising regional tensions over the hotly disputed South China Sea. The presence of the Typhon system has drawn strong criticism from both Beijing and Moscow, who have accused the U.S. of escalating an arms race in the Indo-Pacific arena. However, Philippine officials consider the deployment to be a strategic deterrent against China. The U.S. has been increasing its arsenal of anti-ship weapons in the Indo-Pacific, aiming to counter the Asian power’s military advancements. Despite concerns, the Philippines assured Beijing that the missile system poses no threat to regional stability. Reuters

US Military Forces are present at the Camilo Osias Naval Base in northern Luzon, Philippines. Source: Google Maps

Taiwan strengthening security collaboration with US, other allies. Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Wednesday that Taipei’s combat effectiveness has significantly ameliorated due to its deepening security partnership with the U.S. and other de facto allies. While Taiwan does not have formal defense treaties with the U.S. or other countries, Washington is legally obligated to help Taipei defend itself. This has prompted ongoing military cooperation, training, and visits. Despite the importance of these partnerships, the self-governing island keeps them low-profile to avoid provoking China. Koo stressed that the focus of these partnerships is on enhancing Taiwan's actual combat capabilities rather than publicizing the cooperation with “great fanfare.” This discreet approach also respects international sensitivities and avoids “unnecessary interference.” Beijing has repeatedly conducted military exercises around the territory to express its displeasure with what it views as separatist actions by Taiwan's leadership. Reuters

North Korea test launches ballistic missiles with massive warhead. North Korea’s state-backed news agency KCNA announced that the country conducted tests of new tactical ballistic missiles equipped with super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on Wednesday, as part of efforts to enhance the nation’s weapons capabilities in response to perceived threats from external forces. Leader Kim Jong Un, who oversaw the tests, demanded bolstered conventional weapons and nuclear capabilities. The missile tested, the Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5, carries a 4.5-ton conventional warhead and is still under development. On Thursday, Seoul confirmed that two ballistic missiles landed in a mountainous area in North Korea's northeast, an unusual target for such tests. There is speculation that Pyongyang may be trying to expedite the development of this missile, potentially to supply it to Russia. The reclusive state also tested an upgraded strategic cruise missile. Reuters The Straits Times

Analysts say Vietnam’s efforts to deepen ties with Indonesia evince ‘enemy to none’ strategy.  Vietnam is strategically expanding its diplomatic ties with Indonesia by advancing its relationship to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" (CSP), reflecting its policy of being "an enemy to none." This move is part of Hanoi's broader strategy to diversify its diplomatic options and avoid alignment with major powers like the U.S. or China. Vietnam's approach with ASEAN countries, including potential CSPs with Singapore and possibly the Philippines, focuses more on cultural and economic cooperation rather than security, to avoid provoking Beijing. Analysts note that while these partnerships enhance Vietnam's global standing and diplomatic flexibility, they also highlight the complexities of balancing relations with both regional neighbors and global powers. The CSP with Indonesia marks Vietnam's first such partnership within ASEAN and will be formally recognized next year. Meanwhile, Singapore is expected to be the next ASEAN country to elevate ties with Vietnam, given its significant economic investments and strategic influence in the region. In spite of all this, Vietnam remains cautious in its approach to ensure it does not alarm China, a key factor in its regional diplomacy. South China Morning Post 

AFRICA

Security concerns remain high in Mali after 'ambitious' attack on police training academy, other places. Mali's security situation remained highly precarious on Wednesday, one day after insurgents linked to an Al Qaeda affiliate known as Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a major attack against an elite police training academy, the main airport in Bamako, and other strategic locations. The brutal attack resulted in the deaths of several trainees and the destruction of six military aircrafts, including a drone and the presidential jet. In a statement on Wednesday, the militant group claimed to have killed and injured "hundreds of enemy soldiers.” The attack was a significant blow to Mali's ruling junta, which had recently claimed to have “weakened armed terrorist groups.” The timing of the attack, coinciding with the 64th anniversary of Mali's gendarmerie, suggests it was symbolically and strategically planned. The incident raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of Mali's counterinsurgency efforts, especially given the recent, severe defeat of Malian forces and Russian Wagner mercenaries by Tuareg rebels. The assault has fueled fears of further instability. How the Malian population will respond remains uncertain, but reprisal attacks have occurred; Reuters saw a mob light a man on fire in Bamako on Tuesday. The U.N. and other international bodies have condemned the violence, underscoring the need for a reassessment of the West African nation’s security strategies. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. committee to further review controversial Nippon Steel deal amid national security concerns. Nippon Steel's planned $14.1 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant delays and opposition due to national security concerns. The companies have resubmitted their application to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS), effectively delaying a decision until after the November election. The deal has encountered resistance from the White House, presidential candidates, and the United Steelworkers union, which fears foreign ownership could harm U.S. Steel's operations and workers. Japan’s Nippon Steel has pledged to invest in U.S. Steel's aging plants, several of which may be shuttered soon, but concerns about national security and the potential impact on the domestic steel industry persist. The CFIUS review process, led by the Treasury Department, could result in the deal being blocked by the president, if it is deemed a threat to national security. Wall Street Journal The Japan Times CNN 

Fed initiates rate cuts amid economic uncertainty and election pressure. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, marking its first-rate reduction since the pandemic's beginning. The new federal funds rate range is 4.75% to 5%, indicating that more cuts could follow. The decision reflects concerns over potential economic weakening and labor market conditions. Although inflation is closer to the Fed's 2% target, there are worries about slowing job growth and demand. The rate cut was seen as a proactive move to maintain economic strength, with further reductions expected. The decision is significant in the context of the upcoming presidential election, with President Biden supporting the move as a sign of effective economic policy. Markets reacted positively to the change, with stock and bond markets experiencing notable shifts. The Fed's future rate projections suggest continued reductions through 2024 and 2025. Financial Times 

FBI director reports takedown of second Chinese botnet operation, Flax Typhoon.  FBI Director Christopher Wray has disclosed that U.S. law enforcement last week took down a second major Chinese hacking campaign, dubbed Flax Typhoon.  Wray said the operation was directed by a Chinese firm, Integrity Technology Group, which masqueraded as a tech firm but was also responsible for collecting intelligence and conducting reconnaissance “for Chinese government security agencies."  The law enforcement action, Wray said, freed thousands of compromised devices from the Flax Typhoon botnet operation.  He added that Flax Typhoon targeted critical infrastructure, corporations, media organizations, universities, and government agencies.  While an earlier botnet operation, Volt Typhoon, focused on internet routers, the Flax Typhoon campaign targeted “internet of things” (IoT) hardware such as “cameras, video recorders and storage devices — things typically found across big and small organizations.”  Wray said “Flax Typhoon’s actions caused real harm to its victims, who had to devote precious time to clean up the mess when they discovered the malware.”  In the takedown operation, Wray noted that the hackers launched a cyberattack as the FBI took control of the botnet's infrastructure, which they soon abandoned.  The FBI director concluded by noting the efforts to counter Flax Typhoon was “just one round in a much longer fight."  China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.  Reuters   The Record   South China Morning Post   CyberScoop

Dozens arrested following global operation’s infiltration of 'Ghost' cybercrime app.  51 suspects across multiple countries have been arrested after an international law enforcement operation, coordinated by Europol, successfully dismantled the encrypted communication app called Ghost, which was widely used by criminal organizations for drug trafficking and money laundering. More arrests are expected. The takedown of the platform, which was popular for its sophisticated security features, has been deemed a significant blow to global organized crime networks. The investigation into Ghost also prevented several threats to life, broke up a drug lab in Australia, and resulted in the seizure of weapons, drugs, and over 1 million euros in cash. The operation involved collaboration between authorities from several countries, including Australia, Canada, and the U.S., and is expected to continue disrupting illegal activities worldwide. Australian police have 32-year-old Jay Je Yoon Jung, the developer of the app, in custody. Reuters 

U.S. to host November summit of global AI safety institutes network.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimiondo will host a global AI safety summit in November.  The gathering in San Francisco will mark the first meeting of the International Network of AI Safety Institutes, which includes Australia, the E.U., France, Japan, South Korea, and Britain.  While China is not a member of the network, Raimondo commented that “we’re still trying to figure out exactly who else might come in terms of scientists.”  Raimondo told the Associated Press, “I think that there are certain risks that we are aligned in wanting to avoid, like AIs applied to nuclear weapons, AIs applied to bioterrorism.”  She added, “every country in the world ought to be able to agree that those are bad things, and we ought to be able to work together to prevent them.”  The November summit aims to stimulate technical collaboration in advance of the AI Action Summit, which meets in February in Paris.  Raimondo described the summit goal as “close, thoughtful coordination with our allies and like-minded partners" so that AI’s development is “underpinned by safety, security, and trust."  Technical experts from each AI safety institute as well as government-affiliated scientific centers will discuss priority work areas.  Reuters Associated Press The Hill  ABCNews

U.S. cyber ambassador underscores need for deterrence strategy in cyberspace.  Nathanial Fick, the State Department cyber ambassador, rejects the idea that deterrence does not have a place in cyberspace.  In an interview with CyberScoop, Fick said the element of deterrence against cyberattacks is an “urgent” issue in light of the “alarming” convergence of cyberattacks, foreign influence operations, and physical warfare.  Adversaries, Fick said, are “pushing and prodding, they’re testing, and we need to ensure that we enforce the norms and don’t allow them to expand the box of what is tolerated.”  Therefore, elements of deterrence that have been used against conventional threats, including diplomatic and military levers, must be extended to digital confrontations “if cyberspace isn’t going to be the Wild West,” Fick said.  Fick urged more public education on foreign influence operations given low awareness among Americans of the degree of social media content generated by disinformation campaigns.  Fick referred to the creation of S/TECH (Office of the Special Envoy for Critical and Emerging Technology) as a further refinement of U.S. approaches to cyber issues, including quantum, AI, and biotechnology.   Fick also said that his office is preparing recommendations for whichever party wins the November election, including a proposal for a “multiple increase” in the $50 million foreign aid fund for things such as reinforcing allied nations’ cyber defenses.  CyberScoop

China freezes properties of U.S. defense firms involved in weapons support to Taiwan.  The Chinese foreign ministry has announced that it is freezing properties owned by nine U.S. firms over weapons sales to Taiwan.  The China-based properties of firms like Sierra Nevada Corp. and Stick Rudder Enterprises will be frozen, the ministry said, and Chinese organizations and individuals will be prohibited from conducting business with them.  The other companies impacted by the move are Cubic Corporation, S3 Aerospace, TCOM Ltd Partnership, TextOre, Planate Management Group, ACT1 Federal, and Exovera.  The nine firms are Pentagon contractors specializing in aircraft modification, integration and upgrades.  In announcing the action, a foreign ministry spokesperson called on the U.S. "to immediately stop the dangerous trend of arming Taiwan. Stop conniving and supporting Taiwan independence and stop undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."  Spokesperson Lin Jian commented that U.S. weapons sales to “China’s Taiwan region” violate the one-China principle, encroach on China’s sovereignty, and harm China-U.S. relations.  Reuters   South China Morning Post

Anduril demonstrates coordinated flight operations of jet-powered drones.  Axios reported on a recent visit to a drone testing facility run by the Anduril military technology company, which is developing cheap, autonomous platforms that are capable of coordinated operations.  As Axios notes, the Pentagon and service arms are investing heavily in the area, ranging from the DoD Replicator program to the Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) project and the Navy’s surface and sub-surface drones.  During the visit to the Anduril Texas Test Site, Axios witnessed a single operator guiding the operations of a formation of jet-powered drones.  Through the use of Anduril’s autonomy software, the operator managed the takeoff of several midsize drones and guided them through an airspace patrol and an attack on a simulated enemy aircraft.  Before executing the attack, the drones sought human permission to proceed.  According to Axios, the drone demonstration offered a glimpse into Anduril’s approach to the intersection of airpower, autonomy, and digital components.  Anduril executive Diem Salmon explained that the “live flight” test “allows us to do it faster,” adding that simulations “will get you very little in the long run, especially as you start moving toward platform integration.”  Axios

AUKUS, Japan in talks on possible maritime autonomous systems collaboration.  A statement issued by the partners in the AUKUS agreement – the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. – indicate that the member states are interested in drawing on Japanese technical expertise in developing maritime autonomous systems.  The AUKUS group said it is exploring with Japan "opportunities to improve interoperability of their maritime autonomous systems as an initial area of cooperation."  Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said a “suite of capabilities” pairing submarines and autonomous vehicles would be the likely focus of collaboration with Japan.  The three nations are in talks with Tokyo to participate in Pillar II of the AUKUS agreement to jointly develop advanced defense capabilities.  Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Kazuhiro Suzuki, posted online that the possible AUKUS-Tokyo collaboration "will most certainly contribute to enhancing regional deterrence and response capabilities."  Nikkei

Chinese chip stocks rise sharply with industry ministry advisory on equipment advance.  The value of Chinese chip-related stocks rose sharply in the wake of a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) advisory to state-backed organizations to transition to a new domestic laser-based immersion lithography machine capable of resolution of 65nm or better.  Firms like Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development, Shanghai Highly Group, and Changchun UP Optotech reached the daily limit of 10 percent increases while Sai Micro Electronics rose by 5.3 percent.  According to observers, the gains signal that China is advancing in its efforts to overcome U.S. export restrictions on key chip equipment.  Leslie Wu, CEO of the RHCC consulting firm, said that even with the positive direction indicated by the MIIT notice, the 65nm resolution lags behind international competitors by at least 15 years.  Bloomberg   Reuters

NASA awards contract for lunar comms services with potential $5 billion value.  The Texas-based space exploration firm, Intuitive Machines, has announced a contract award from NASA worth up to $4.82 billion.  The contract centers on communications and navigation services in the near space region, the area from the surface of the Earth to beyond the moon.  With a five-year base period, the contract extends to September 2029 but includes an additional five-year option to 2034.  Task orders against the potential $4.82 billion total value will be issued in $150 million increments.  The company will place in orbit lunar relay satellites along with communications and navigations services in support of NASA’s Artemis lunar program.  NASA is developing its Near Space Network in an effort to establish continuous lunar communications rather than the line-of-sight links that exist currently.  The Intuitive Machines contribution would be a step toward creating a satellite constellation to provide navigation and communications for future missions on or around the moon.  Wall Street Journal   TechCrunch

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief