Report for Thursday, September 12, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Blinken discussing support for Ukraine in visit to Poland

Putin launches counterattack in Kursk

E.U. energy commissioner says bloc 'no longer at mercy of Putin’s pipelines’

U.S. aircraft carrier stationed in the Middle East is sailing for home

Philippines resolute on Sabina Shoal stance, but seeks to soften tensions with China

U.S., E.U. diplomats reproach China for tech transfers aiding Russian ‘war machine’

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Cipher Brief Experts Offer Reflections on 9/11 — and What Came After  The Cipher Brief

A Personal Perspective on 9/11 and the War that Followed  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

New video, witnesses contradict Israel’s explanation of U.S. activist’s killing.  A Washington Post investigation has found that Aysenur Eygi, a 26-year-old Turkish American activist, was shot to death in Israel’s West Bank some 20 minutes after protesters had moved more than 200 yards away from Israeli forces.  These findings contradict the story by the Israel Defense Forces, which said Tuesday it was “very likely” she had been hit “unintentionally” by one of its soldiers “during a violent riot.”  The IDF version did not explain why the Israeli military fired toward the demonstrators after they had retreated, and at a distance that did not pose an apparent threat to the Israelis.  To reconstruct the events of last Friday, the Post said it spoke to 13 eyewitnesses and Beita residents and reviewed more than 50 videos and photos provided by the International Solidarity Movement, the organization that Eygi was demonstrating with, and Faz3a, another Palestinian advocacy group.  On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israeli security forces must make “fundamental changes” in the way they operate in the West Bank.  On Wednesday, President Joe Biden called Eygi’s death “totally unacceptable,” saying that Israel’s “preliminary investigation has indicated that it was the result of a tragic error resulting from an unnecessary escalation.” Washington Post 

Israeli strike in Gaza kills 6 U.N. Workers, a dozen others at a shelter for refugees.  An Israeli airstrike Wednesday on a school turned shelter in Nuseirat in central Gaza killed at least 18 people, including six employees of the U.N. relief agency for Palestinians known as UNRWA, Palestinian and U.N. officials said. The Israeli military said the strike targeted a Hamas command post.  UNRWA said the strike on the Jaouni School in Nuseirat was the deadliest single incident for its staff over 11 months of war.  In all, more than 200 UNRWA workers have died in the fighting. The Gaza Civil Defense emergency services said that those killed included women and children and that the strike marked the fifth time the school was hit.  U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters Wednesday that Israel’s lack of accountability for the killing of United Nations staff and humanitarian aid workers in the Gaza Strip is "totally unacceptable.”  New York Times Reuters 

Israeli official proposes to trade hostages for safe passage for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.  Israel’s coordinator for hostages and the missing, Gal Hirsch, told CNN Sunday that if all remaining hostages are returned, “I even believe that we will agree to build safe passage to the chief terrorist, the new Hitler, Sinwar – safe passage to him and whoever he wants to join him out of Gaza.” On Tuesday, in an interview with Bloomberg, Hirsch expanded on the idea, saying Israel has already proposed safe passage to Sinwar. CNN  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Blinken discussing support for Ukraine in visit to Poland. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Polish leaders, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk, President Andrzej Duda, and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, to discuss support for Ukraine and bolstering U.S.-Polish defense cooperation. The talks will focus on securing Poland's eastern flank amid growing tensions with Russia, which have worsened since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Poland has significantly increased its defense spending and strengthened its borders with Belarus and Russia. Discussions will also cover deepening energy cooperation, particularly plans to build Poland’s first civilian nuclear power plant. Reuters

Blinken hints US will lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range arms in Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that the White House may soon lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia. Speaking in Kyiv alongside UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Wednesday, Blinken emphasized the US’s evolving policy based on the changing battlefield in Ukraine. Lammy pointed to Iran’s shipment of ballistic missiles to Russia as a key factor behind this shift. While the decision is understood to have been made privately, no public announcement is expected immediately. Ukraine has been lobbying for such permissions to enhance its military capabilities against Russia. The Guardian New York Times CNN Washington Post Wall Street Journal 

Putin launches counterattack in Kursk. Russian forces are counterattacking Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, over a month after Ukraine captured a large area. Russia's more experienced combat units have reportedly reclaimed several settlements in the past 48 hours, according to the Institute for the Study of War. In response, Ukrainian forces have launched new attacks. The loss of Kursk territory would be a blow to Kyiv, which had hoped to disrupt Russian logistics. The Independent

Kremlin believes U.S. Has Authorized Long-Range Ukrainian Strikes on Russia. The Kremlin believes the U.S. has already authorized Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with long-range U.S.-supplied rockets. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed Wednesday that media coverage was formalizing a decision that had likely been made, warning of an “appropriate” response if restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range strikes were lifted. His comments followed U.S. President Joe Biden’s statement that his administration was considering allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons, such as ATACMS, which can reach targets up to 300 kilometers away. Peskov accused the U.S. and Europe of deepening their involvement in the war, increasing the risk of broader conflict. Moscow Times  Reuters

Tehran has not delivered missiles to Russia, foreign minister says. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi denied on Wednesday that Tehran had delivered ballistic missiles to Russia, contradicting claims by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Araqchi emphasized that sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European powers, including Britain, Germany, and France, would not resolve their issues with Iran. Blinken had asserted that Russia received Iranian missiles and would likely use them in Ukraine, posing a threat to European security.  Iran and the Kremlin dismissed the allegations, while the Netherlands called for tougher European Union sanctions in response. Reuters 

Russia now has Iran's Fath-360 ballistic missile — here's what it means for Ukraine. Iran’s supply of Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia is a significant threat to Ukraine. These missiles, with a range of 120 kilometers, pose a new threat to Ukrainian military targets and cities like Kharkiv and Sumy. Their high speed makes them difficult to intercept, requiring advanced air defense systems such as the U.S.-made Patriot. Russia can now conserve its more expensive long-range missiles while using the Fath-360 for tactical strikes. Iran faces increased sanctions from Western countries. Kyiv Independent

Top US and UK diplomats pledge almost $1.5 billion in additional aid for Ukraine during visit to Kyiv. The United States and Britain pledged nearly $1.5 billion in new aid for Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy. The package includes $325 million to repair and restore Ukraine’s power grid and $290 million for humanitarian needs such as food, water, and healthcare. Additional funds will support energy infrastructure security and mine-removal efforts. This visit, marked by air-raid warnings, underscored the continued Western commitment to Ukraine as it faces mounting challenges from Russian military advances and energy grid disruptions ahead of winter. Associated Press  Reuters Reuters Reuters

Putin dragging his feet on mobilization despite troop shortages exposed by Kursk incursion. Amid manpower shortages exposed by Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, President Vladimir Putin is reluctant to announce a new mobilization, fearing public backlash. Despite Russia's troop losses and recruitment challenges, the Kremlin hopes to avoid conscription by continuing to recruit volunteer fighters with rising payouts. Analysts suggest Putin believes gains can still be made on the battlefield without mobilization. Russia's leadership is wary of triggering unrest, as many Russians remain unwilling to fight. The use of young conscripts has increased but further forced mobilization could strain the economy and provoke discontent. Putin claimed in June that there were almost 700,000 Russian troops in Ukraine and Russian areas bordering Ukraine. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said the same month that Russia's invasion force comprised 520,000 troops, and Russia was planning to increase it to 690,000 by the end of 2024. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in January that the Ukrainian army included 880,000 troops. However, analysts say the number of soldiers fighting on the front line is smaller. Kyiv Independent

China promotes ‘rational’ voices on Ukraine ceasefire, Wang Yi tells Russian official. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a Tuesday meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in St. Petersburg, reaffirmed China’s push for a balanced and rational approach toward resolving the Ukraine war. Wang emphasized China’s impartial stance and commitment to facilitating a ceasefire and political solution. He also advocated for strengthening cooperation among BRICS nations to amplify the voices of emerging economies. Shoigu welcomed the peace efforts by China and Brazil. The meeting also underscored the close strategic ties between China and Russia, with both countries seeking greater collaboration. South China Morning Post

Turkey's Erdogan Says Russia Must Return Crimea to Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey's opposition to Russia's annexation of Crimea, calling for its return to Ukraine. Speaking Wednesday at the Fourth Crimea Platform Leaders Summit, Erdoğan emphasized Turkey’s unwavering support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence. He stated that the return of Crimea is a requirement of international law and condemned the persecution of Crimea's ethnic Tatars since 2014. Erdoğan’s remarks, which align with Turkey's longstanding stance, will likely frustrate Russian President Vladimir Putin. Turkey has maintained relations with both Russia and Ukraine throughout the war. Newsweek

Zelensky calls for maximum support for Ukraine at Crimea summit.  At the fourth Crimea Platform summit in Kyiv on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for maximum international support to reclaim Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. He emphasized that Crimea's freedom is essential for lasting peace and rejected the idea of a "frozen occupation." The summit included leaders from 60 countries, with Turkish President Erdoğan expressing support for Ukraine and advocating for the rights of Crimean Tatars, a group native to the region. Euronews

India can use its position to convince Russia to join peace talks: Ukraine envoy. Ukraine’s ambassador to India Oleksandr Polishchuk on Wednesday urged New Delhi to use its global influence to convince Russia to engage in peace talks. While India has participated in Ukraine’s peace efforts, Polishchuk emphasized that Ukraine expects more active moderation from India in facilitating negotiations. He highlighted India’s potential role in the peace process as it seeks a seat at the UN Security Council. Polishchuk also welcomed India’s involvement in humanitarian demining projects in Ukraine and expressed hopes for increased Indian support, particularly in rebuilding infrastructure and providing essential equipment like generators and transformers as winter approaches. Hindustan Times Times of India

Ukraine loses over $11 billion annually due to mined areas, study shows. Ukraine loses over $11.2 billion annually due to landmines and explosive remnants of war, equivalent to 5.6% of its 2021 gross domestic product, according to a study by the Tony Blair Institute. The losses primarily impact agricultural exports, resulting in a $4.3 billion annual reduction. Regions such as Chernihiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv have experienced more than a 20% drop in regional GDP. The World Bank estimates $34.6 billion is needed to clear mined areas, which could be recouped within three and a half years once cleared. In 2022, global spending on mine clearance reached $798 million, with nearly half allocated to Ukraine. Ukrainska Pravda

Russian hawk pushes case for Putin to toughen policy on nuclear weapons. Sergei Karaganov, a prominent Russian foreign policy hawk, urged Moscow to adopt a stronger nuclear posture, advocating the potential for limited nuclear strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine. In an interview with Kommersant, he criticized Russia’s current nuclear doctrine, calling it inadequate for deterring enemies and suggesting it risks leading the country to disaster. Karaganov believes revising this doctrine is crucial for Russia’s survival. While his views do not reflect official policy, they are closely monitored by Western experts. He argues that a limited nuclear response would not necessarily escalate into a global nuclear conflict. Reuters 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 44 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed at least six people and injured 44, authorities said Thursday morning. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 44 of 64 Shahed drones launched by Russia. Strikes targeted multiple regions, including Sumy, where 16 were injured, and Donetsk, where six were killed. Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson also faced casualties. Kyiv experienced its seventh aerial attack in September, but all drones were intercepted. Other regions, including Chernihiv and Kharkiv, were also attacked, though no casualties were reported. Kyiv Independent

Russian strike on Konotop injures 14, heavily damages energy infrastructure. Russia launched a drone attack Thursday on Konotop in Sumy Oblast, heavily damaging energy and civilian infrastructure. Fourteen people were injured, with two hospitalized, one in a coma. The attack caused fires, blackouts, and damaged schools, tram tracks, and residential buildings. Mayor Artem Semenikhin reported critical damage to the city's electrical supply, and efforts are underway to restore power to medical and water facilities. Residents were urged to stock up on water as disruptions continue. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks cut off gas, water in Pokrovsk, governor says. Russian attacks on Thursday cut off gas and water supplies in Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, according to Governor Vadym Filashkin. The town, a key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces, has faced fierce fighting for months. A modular water filtration station was disabled, and a gas station was destroyed. Authorities are delivering drinking water and drilling wells to support the remaining 26,000 residents. Evacuations now occur from Pavlohrad, as Pokrovsk's train station is closed. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine businesses hire more women and teens amid war-time labor shortages. As Russia's war on Ukraine depletes the labor force, businesses are hiring more women and young people to fill gaps, particularly in male-dominated sectors like construction and transport. Many men are mobilized for military service, leading to staff shortages that threaten economic recovery. Companies are recruiting women for jobs traditionally held by men, such as truck and tractor drivers. Businesses are also targeting teenagers and students with internships and training programs. With over 25% of Ukraine’s workforce lost, employers face challenges. Reuters

Six Countries That Could Mediate Possible Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks. Several countries have been suggested as potential mediators for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Austria offers a neutral venue for talks but lacks the geopolitical weight to influence negotiations. Hungary, while a close ally of Russia, is unlikely to mediate due to tensions with Ukraine. Brazil maintains neutrality, making it a possible broker, while China is seen as too close to Russia. India has good relations with both Russia and Ukraine but may not provide needed security guarantees. Turkey, experienced in facilitating deals like the grain initiative, could offer a balanced platform for negotiations. Newsweek

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Wednesday, September 13, 2024. Russian forces began counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, seizing several settlements near Korenevo on Tuesday and Wednesday. The scale and prospects of the Russian counterattacks remain unclear, with visual evidence showing Russian forces operating in company-sized units. Russian forces may aim to bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk before launching a larger offensive to push Ukrainian forces out. China continues to promote its peace plan for Ukraine, while Turkey reaffirmed its support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, particularly regarding Crimea.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk, near Toretsk and near Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War 

Opinion: Biden’s ‘Escalation Management’ in Ukraine Makes the West Less Safe. Edward Hunter Christie argues that Washington's approach to managing the Ukraine war through escalation control has failed. He criticizes the U.S. for its overly cautious stance, which has delayed Ukraine’s access to crucial weapons and restrained its ability to strike deep into Russia. Christie suggests that Washington’s slow and incremental aid is driven by a flawed escalation management algorithm that does not adapt to the realities of the war. He advocates for a shift towards a policy of "threat removal," which would allow Ukraine to fully neutralize Russian military capabilities and achieve lasting peace. Foreign Policy

AMERICAS

America’s once invisible spy agency just started a podcast. The National Security Agency (NSA), once notoriously secretive and commonly referred to as "No Such Agency," is stepping into the public eye by sharing details of its work, including its role in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. In interviews with The Washington Post, former NSA officers revealed that the agency played a crucial role in tracking down bin Laden by intercepting communications and identifying key figures, like the courier who led to bin Laden’s hideout. The NSA's work involved analyzing hundreds of calls and tracking phone signals to pinpoint the location of the al-Qaeda leader's compound in Pakistan. This information enabled the CIA and other intelligence agencies to coordinate efforts, leading to bin Laden's capture and death in 2011. The NSA is also launching a podcast, “No Such Podcast,” to further underline its contributions to national security through signals intelligence. Despite controversies about privacy, officials aim to showcase how the NSA's efforts have kept the country safe. Washington Post 

Ex-CIA officer, China spy receives 10 year prison sentence. Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, the former CIA officer and FBI contract linguist who sold American secrets to the Chinese government for years, was handed a 10-year prison sentence at a Hawaiian court Wednesday. Ma, 71, admitted to conspiring to provide national defense information to Chinese intelligence officers in exchange for money and costly gifts. He took a plea deal, which allows him to avoid a potential life sentence but requires him to undergo lifelong polygraph tests. In a statement, FBI Honolulu Special Agent-in-Charge Steven Merrill said the sentencing should “be a message to anyone else thinking of doing the same." Associated Press BBC U.S. Department of Justice  

Human rights organization urges governments to safeguard Venezuelan, Haitian immigrants.  Human Rights Watch on Wednesday called on the governments of Latin America to improve protections, grant legal status, and eliminate restrictive visa requirements for millions of Haitian and Venezuelan migrants scrambling to secure work, healthcare, and education in South America. The watchdog stressed how limited integration policies in these countries are pushing vulnerable individuals to undertake treacherous journeys, such as crossing the pathless and heavily forested Darien Gap between Colombia and Panama, to seek asylum in the U.S.  HRW recommends implementing a “region-wide protection” system to provide legal status for Haitians and Venezuelans, and cutting down barriers that prevent them from obtaining work permits and integrating. The report criticized the asylum systems in countries like Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile for their limited capacity, complicated procedures, and significant delays. Associated Press Human Rights Watch  

EUROPE

E.U. energy commissioner says bloc 'no longer at mercy of Putin’s pipelines.' Energy commissioner Kadri Simson on Wednesday affirmed that the European Union is “ready to live” without Russia's natural gas after the transit deal for gas through Ukraine expires at the end of this year. Speaking at a press conference on the E.U. Energy Report 2024, Simson said that the bloc is “no longer at the mercy of Putin’s pipelines,” and fully supports Kyiv. While Russian gas imports to the E.U. have dropped significantly since 2021, from 45% to 18%, some of this gap has been filled by increased imports from Norway and North Africa. Despite a rise in Russian gas imports in early 2024, the bloc’s gas demand fell by 18%, and the E.U. reached its 90% gas storage target for winter months ahead of schedule. With the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement set to expire on December 31, Simson noted that alternative supplies are available, making further trade with Moscow unnecessary. However, some member states, such as Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary, remain heavily dependent on Russian gas, with Budapest facing criticism for new gas deals with Russia. The E.U. has accelerated its investments in renewable energy since 2022, with half of the Union’s electricity generation coming from renewables in early 2024. Despite this, energy prices in the E.U. remain high, and only 10 member countries have submitted National Energy and Climate Plans to meet the bloc's energy goals and carbon reduction targets. EUObserver Kyiv Independent  

Kremlin bristles at use of Putin’s name in Harris, Trump debate. Moscow has expressed displeasure after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s name was brought up during a recent U.S. presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday criticized the broaching of the topic in Washington’s internal politics, saying “we still hope that they will leave the name of our president alone.” Harris commented that the Russian leader would “eat Trump for lunch” and would be in Kyiv if Trump were president. The GOP nominee countered, claiming that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if he had been in the White House. Peskov noted that while the Kremlin didn’t watch the debate, they reviewed media reports about the statements. Politico 

Harris’ hint that Poland could be the next victim of Russian aggression hits home for Poles.  Poland, like many other nations, closely followed the U.S. presidential debate for clues about the future state of American foreign policy, and how these developments will impact the global stage. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine, each of their parties starkly divided on how to handle the conflict. While Trump twice declined to directly answer a question about whether he hoped to see Kyiv secure victory, Harris doubled down on the importance of supporting Ukraine, to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from expanding his influence further into Europe, “starting with Poland.” Harris’ message resonated with Poles who harbor fears that if Ukraine loses, Putin could target other regions once under Moscow's control, including Warsaw, a NATO member on the front lines of the conflict. Trump’s claim that he could easily end the war was met with skepticism, particularly in Poland, where the memory of past conflicts and proximity to the war heightens concerns. The debate has sparked differing opinions among Americans of Polish descent, reflecting the divide over the GOP nominee’s foreign policy approach. Associated Press 

45 charged over fatal incursion by armed Serbs. Kosovo prosecutors have charged 45 individuals in connection with a gunfight last year in the village of Banjska, in which a Kosovo policeman and three ethnic Serb gunmen were killed after the Serbs stormed the village. Kosovo accused Serbia of involvement in the incident, but Belgrade rejected this. Milan Radoicic, a politician and businessman with ties to Serbia’s ruling party, was among those charged, and is accused of leading the group involved in the incident. Radoicic, who has been under U.S. and U.K. sanctions and was previously detained in Serbia, denied the charges but admitted to being involved in the paramilitary group. The accused face charges including terrorism, money laundering, and violating Pristina’s constitutional order, with potential life sentences. International cooperation, including help from the E.U. and U.S., helped build the case. Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, a former breakaway province, remain high. Associated Press Reuters

Prosecutor says France thwarted 3 attack schemes on Paris Olympics. France’s national counterterrorism prosecutor said Wednesday that authorities thwarted three terrorist plots targeting the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games, including plans to attack Israeli institutions or representatives. The prosecutor clarified Wednesday that the Israeli team was not specifically targeted, though he did not divulge further details. Five suspects, including a minor, were arrested and face terrorism-related charges for three foiled schemes against the Games. France was on high alert due to security threats from Islamic extremists, far-right groups, and cyberattacks. One plot, led by an 18-year-old from Chechnya, aimed to attack establishments near an Olympic soccer event in the city of Saint-Etienne. Jihadist threats dominated the plots, prompting preventive measures like house searches, detainments, and strengthened airspace defenses; Paris deployed attack helicopters, war and surveillance aircraft, and military and police drones to monitor Paris and Marseille. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. aircraft carrier stationed in the Middle East is sailing for home. U.S. officials say that the Pentagon has ended its recent extended deployment of two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers in the Middle East, and has instructed the USS Theodore Roosevelt to head home. This development follows a temporary order by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to extend the Roosevelt’s stay until the USS Abraham Lincoln could arrive in the region. The U.S. boosted its military presence in the area to help protect Israel from potential threats posed by Iran and its proxies, as well as to protect American soldiers. The Roosevelt's departure comes as the l Israel-Hamas war approaches its one-year anniversary, and efforts to mediate a cease-fire continue to stall. The USS Abraham Lincoln remains in the region, stationed in the Gulf of Oman, while other U.S. naval forces are deployed in the eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea. By Thursday, the Roosevelt, as well as the destroyer USS Daniel Inouye, are set to arrive in the Indo-Pacific Command’s region. Associated Press

Turkey denounces defense framework between Cyprus and U.S. Ankara has lambasted the recent signing of a defense cooperation pact between the U.S. and the Republic of Cyprus, expressing concerns that the move undermines Washington’s neutrality on the Cyprus issue. This condemnation comes as the U.N. seeks to restart stonewalled negotiations between the Mediterranean island’s split Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.  The Turkish foreign ministry argued that U.S. actions, including the launch of a strategic dialogue with Cyprus, threaten the security of the Turkish Cypriot side and make a peaceful settlement harder to achieve. Cyprus has been divided since the fallout of a 1974 Turkish invasion, which followed a Greek-backed coup. The Turkish Cypriots demand recognition of their equal sovereignty for talks to resume. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Philippines resolute on Sabina Shoal stance, but seeks to soften tensions with China. The Philippines on Thursday reaffirmed its position on Sabina Shoal despite ongoing tensions with Beijing over the hotly contested South China Sea. During recent talks in the Chinese capital, officials from both nations discussed ways to reduce tensions while maintaining their respective claims. Beijing has repeatedly demanded the withdrawal of a Philippine coast guard ship from the shoal, which has been stationed there since April, accusing Manila of monitoring China's activities. The Philippines believes that China is conducting alleged reclamation operations in the area. Manila has also reported the recent presence of 207 Chinese vessels in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). While both countries agreed to continue discussions on cooperation mechanisms, the territorial dispute remains unresolved. Reuters

South Korea divided over North’s recurrent nuclear threats. In South Korea, public opinion on the threat posed by North Korea is split down the middle. Some, especially conservatives and older citizens, feel heightened concern about the North's mounting nuclear capabilities and missile development, while others, often the younger generation and liberals, view the threat as exaggerated. This divide has persisted through Seoul's complex history of war, economic growth, and political shifts. While many in the South have become desensitized to Pyongyang's provocations, some prepare for the possibility of war by stockpiling supplies or military gear. Others even build bunkers as a precaution. Tensions with North Korea fluctuate, often depending on the political stance of South Korea's government. For some South Koreans, the threat feels distant, a “given,” while others worry about the growing nuclear and missile testing of their northern neighbor, especially as international alliances are questioned. Despite this, most continue with their daily lives, adapting to the persistent, albeit oscillating, threat. Associated Press

North Korea fires several ballistic missiles amid efforts to boost war readiness. North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff. This comes in the wake of comments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promising to strengthen the nation’s nuclear readiness in preparation for battle against the U.S. and its allies. Seoul detected the missiles flying about 360 kilometers, before landing in the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. No damage or casualties were reported. South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. condemned the launches, which were Pyongyang’s first missile tests in over two months. The test firings come amid speculation that the isolated country may soon test a more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile. Associated Press Reuters 

AFRICA

U.S. approves release of $1.3 billion in military assistance to Egypt. The White House has decided to provide Egypt with its full annual $1.3 billion military aid package, reversing a previous policy of withholding funds due to concerns about Cairo's human rights record. Over the past three years, the Biden administration had withheld more than $300 million due to Egypt's treatment of prisoners and other human rights violations, including torture, the jailing of dissidents, extrajudicial killings, and repression. The change comes as Egypt plays a key role in mediating the Israel-Hamas conflict, a top priority for Washington. Secretary of State Antony Blinken used a waiver to bypass human rights conditions on $225 million of the aid. Despite the decision, the State Department acknowledged that Cairo's human rights record has not significantly improved, which has sparked condemnation from lawmakers and rights advocates. Washington Post 

Sudan blames UAE for arming rivals, dragging out war. Sudan’s government on Wednesday accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with arms and protracting the nation’s devastating civil war, which erupted in mid-April 2023. The UAE rejected the allegations as “baseless,” in turn accusing Sudan’s military of refusing to negotiate peace. This exchange occurred during a U.N. Security Council meeting, in which members voted to extend a weapons embargo in Sudan’s Darfur region until 2025. Sudan’s ambassador claimed Abu Dhabi provided the RSF with weapons and profited from Sudanese gold, urging sanctions on the paramilitary and its supporters, as well as an evaluation of arms export policies to the UAE. The UAE countered by blaming Sudan’s military for using starvation as a war tactic and avoiding peace talks. Associated Press 

CYBER & TECH

U.S., E.U. diplomats reproach China for tech transfers aiding Russian ‘war machine’.  A senior U.S. diplomat told reporters in Brussels this week that China is providing Russia with “very substantial” assistance in return for advanced military technology related to submarine and missile forces.  U.S. deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell said Chinese tech deliveries to Russia “are not dual-use capabilities…these are basically being applied directly to the Russian war machine.”  Campbell described the transactions as integral to China’s efforts “to help sustain, build, and diversify” Russia’s capacity to wage war.  Both sides, Campbell said, are taking steps “to both hide and protect certain elements of this worrisome collaboration…most of these activities have been driven underground."  According to Campbell, in exchange for China’s contributions, Russia is actively providing Beijing with submarine, missile, and other sensitive technologies, capabilities that Moscow traditionally kept closely sheltered from China.  These capabilities, Campbell said, pose a threat not only to the U.S. but to Indo-Pacific allies and partners such as India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, especially "if China was able to receive greater engagement from Russia in perfecting certain military capabilities."  A statement issued by Campbell and his E.U. counterpart, Secretary General Stefano Sannino, at the conclusion of joint talks “reiterated deep and increasing concern about China’s exports of significant amounts of dual-use goods and items used by Russia on the battlefield against Ukraine, and China-based companies’ continued involvement in sanctions evasion and circumvention.”  The statement went on to point out that “China’s ongoing support for Russia’s military industrial base is enabling Russia to maintain its illegal war against Ukraine.”  Politico State Department Financial Times

Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure rose 70 percent in 2024 compared to 2023.  New research has found that U.S. critical infrastructure facilities experienced a 70 percent surge in cyberattacks in 2024 compared with the same period last year.  The findings from Check Point Research tallied 1,162 cyberattacks through August while 689 were registered in the first 8 months of 2023.  Among critical infrastructure sectors, energy is one of the most vulnerable.  Halliburton oil services firm recently disclosed that a hacking attack extracted data from its systems.  Douglas McKee of the SonicWall cybersecurity firm noted that utilities make broad use of Internet-of-Things technology that lacks advanced cyber defenses.  Cybersecurity experts say expansion of the power grid, which includes new clients such as generative AI data centers, is creating more potential vulnerabilities.  Another concern is the that election seasons have coincided with surges in infrastructure attacks.  Nataliia Zdrok, a threat intelligence analyst at Binary Defense, said that as the U.S. election approaches, “we can expect a surge in cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, including utilities, energy grids, and communication networks."  Reuters

DJI criticizes House passage of ‘CCP Drones Act’ restrictions on new platforms.  Chinese drone manufacturer DJI responded to the House of Representatives’ passage of the “Countering CCP Drones Act” by saying the legislation “would not only undermine American interests, but also harms the very industry Congress intends to support.”  The bill would place DJI on a blacklist managed by the Federal Communications Commission.  DJI described the House action as “being swayed by political considerations rather than facts” and committed to continuing contacts with legislators “to dispel misconceptions about our brand.”  The Drones Act would not apply to DJI drones currently used in the U.S. but would ban new platforms from using U.S. communications infrastructure out of concerns that DJI apps could be exploited to access personal data.  South China Morning Post

Former Samsung executives arrested for covert chip tech transfer to China.  Two former Samsung executives have been arrested by South Korean police for allegedly stealing chip technologies valued at $3.2 billion to duplicate a chip fabrication plant in China.  Seoul police said one of the executives identified as Choi leaked Samsung memory technologies to the Chinese through a joint venture.  Choi also is accused of recruiting South Korean chip experts to aid development of the Chinese plant.  The joint venture with China, Chengdu Gaozhen, was cited by police as the conduit for a “serious security violation” carried out by Choi and a plant designer who collaborated with the Chinese to produce 20nm DRAM chips last year.  Police said the plot damaged Samsung and “weakened the nation’s competitiveness.”  Authorities noted that police action halted the joint venture operation but they are investigating additional technology leaks.  Samsung declined to comment on the case.  South China Morning Post

China-linked cyberespionage campaign against Southeast Asian targets continues.  Three Chinese cyberespionage groups have continued hacking attacks on government systems in Southeast Asia in the face of efforts to counteract the operations.  A cyberespionage campaign dubbed Crimson Palace by the Sophos cybersecurity firm has been active throughout 2024, targeting unidentified Southeast Asian targets.  The three groups, Cluster Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie, have links to other Chinese state-backed groups, including APT15 and APT41.  A Sophos threat intelligence specialist said collaboration and infrastructure sharing among Chinese-backed threat actors creates conditions for the campaign to evolve “and in potentially new locations.”  The Crimson Palace operation aims to extract data and intelligence but also has been used to regain access to targeted systems.  Previous Sophos successes in blocking customized hacking devices has prompted threat actors to adopt open-source tools, which Sophos says demonstrates “how quickly these attacker groups can adapt and remain persistent.”  The Record

Singapore police arrest Chinese nationals involved in ‘global cybercrime syndicate’.  Singapore police have arrested six Chinese nationals and a Singapore citizen for involvement in a global cybercrime syndicate.  Police seized hacking devices equipped to carry out cyberattacks along with personally identifiable information (PII) and hacker group server credentials.  In addition to hacking equipment, police confiscated $1.3 million in cash and cryptocurrency.  Among the malware seized was PlugX, a remote access trojan used as a backdoor to compromised systems that is widely used by Chinese state-sponsored hacking groups.  PlugX has been deployed in hacking operations conducted by APT10 (Stone Panda), APT41 (Winnti), and Mustang Panda.  BleepingComputer

NATO approves funds for 10 emerging tech solutions in accelerator program.  NATO has approved funding for 10 companies competing in the alliance technology program known as the Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA).  The companies selected to move into the second phase of the program, NATO said, have demonstrated “progress in their commercial and defense market potential, the technical viability and novelty of their solutions, and their investment readiness.”  A U.S.-based firm, Dolphin Labs, will participate in the next phase with its xNode wave energy converter that provides persistent electricity supply for remote ocean sensing networks and subsea microgrids.  NATO said the technology “enables enhanced maritime domain awareness to improve the safety and security for our offshore natural resources and critical infrastructure.”  British and other NATO partner companies will also enter the second phase with a wide range of projects, including quantum devices, high-bandwidth laser communications, underwater drones, and “intelligent” antennas for unmanned systems.  DIANA’s chief commercial officer noted that the technology solutions selected for phase two demonstrated “high adoption potential.”  NATO has announced that DIANA-related tech accelerator sites will expand to 23 from the current 11, with test centers rising from 90 to 182.  DefenseScoop BreakingDefense DefenseNews

Cloud computing sector prepares for AI-driven data storage, retrieval demands.  The next generation of cloud computing infrastructure is coming into view as demand soars for data storage and higher speed retrieval of video, photos, audio, and text content.  The Wall Street Journal notes that data that once were measured in gigabytes and terabytes are not calculated in petabytes and exabytes.  Stepping up to the challenges are companies like software startup Vast Data, which says it has developed a faster, cheaper and more scalable operating system for a range of distributed networks. Vast CEO Renen Hallak says the company’s vision is “to build infrastructure for these new AI workloads.”  Rather than dividing data in tiers, with high-priority content most easily accessed, Hallak said “these new AI workloads” require retrieval “over and over again across many petabytes and in some cases exabytes…that’s a very different problem.”  Another traditional solution is to add a limited number of nodes to capture slices of a large data set. However, Hallak said, in an AI era all nodes must have simultaneous access to all stored data to achieve adequate scalability and speed.  In a related article, the Journal reports that a surge in AI spending has led to a proliferation of new U.S. data centers optimized for AI and that boast specialized chips needed for generative AI applications.  Microsoft, for example, has more than doubled its data center capacity since 2020 and Google has boosted capacity by 80 percent in that timeframe.  Power demands, chip availability, and skilled workers are among the challenges facing the growth of the data storage and processing sector.  Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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