Report for Thursday, October 31, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on the table

Ukraine’s frontline is ‘crumbling’ against Russian advances, says general

Biden administration sanctions 400 people and companies helping Russia’s war machine

US traded Chinese prisoner for American pastor jailed in China

North Korea’s Kim praises ICBM test, calls it 'appropriate military action' against adversaries

Pentagon short on air-defense missiles

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The U.S. is in the Midst of a Perfect ‘Cognitive Warfare’ Storm  The Cipher Brief

Cyber Threat to U.S. Critical Infrastructure: Dangers in ‘Weakest Links’  The Cipher Brief

The Danger of War on the Korean Peninsula  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on the table.  U.S. mediators have proposed a 60-day ceasefire for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.  Israeli state broadcaster KAN revealed what it said was a draft of a ceasefire plan drafted by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, that would  implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. The plan calls for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon within a week and halt offensive operations in the country, while Hezbollah would pull back from southern Lebanon, leaving the Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL peacekeepers to police the border.

Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, said Wednesday that the group would agree to a ceasefire under acceptable terms. He did not explicitly link an end to fighting in Lebanon with an end to fighting in Gaza, which Hezbollah previously demanded. Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the 60-day truce proposal with ministers on Tuesday, demanding a Hezbollah withdrawal north of the Litani river, the deployment of Lebanese troops on the border, and an international intervention mechanism to guarantee Israel retains freedom of action to go after threats.   Hochstein and U.S. envoy Brett McGurk plan to visit Israel Thursday for talks on Hezbollah, Gaza and other issues. CIA Director William Burns will head to Egypt to continue Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks.  Reuters  Reuters  Jerusalem Post South China Morning Post  Reuters  Associated Press

Israel strikes Baalbek after evacuation order.  The Israeli military’s air campaign struck the ancient city of Baalbek, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. On Wednesday morning, the Israeli military ordered the city’s roughly 80,000 residents to flee, the first evacuation order during the war in Lebanon. The evacuation area designated by the Israeli military included Baalbek’s 3,000-year-old Roman ruins. Lebanese officials pleaded with people not to shelter in the ruins after some residents fled there thinking they would be safe from bombardment. At around 3:30 p.m. local time strikes began in and around the city, hitting what the Israeli military said were militant compounds with fuel depots. Washington Post

Israel kills 19 people, including eight women, in two Lebanese towns in Baalbek.Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon's Baalbek area have killed 19 people, including eight women, and caused widespread evacuations following Israeli military orders for civilians to leave the city. BBC Reuters 

Analysis: Israel reduced hundreds of buildings in southern Lebanon to rubble.   The New York Times analyzed satellite imagery and videos of six villages in southern Lebanon to determine that the Israeli military offensive flattened or severely damaged 1,085 buildings since its Oct. 1 invasion. The analysis builds on another one published earlier in October, in which the Times found that scores of buildings had been destroyed in two other villages. In statements posted to social media, the Israeli military said that troops had discovered and destroyed Hezbollah tunnels in Meiss al-Jabal, Kafr Kila and Mhaibib, and  Aita al Shaab.  NY Times   

Lebanon's only burn unit treating small children in the wake of Israeli strikes. Lebanon's only specialized burn unit at Beirut's Geitaoui Hospital, stretched by an influx of patients, has increased its capacity from 9 to 25 beds amid Israel’s offensive. Many patients, including very young children with extensive burns, face long recovery times of up to six weeks, with uncertain outcomes due to the severity of their injuries. The facility has recently admitted eight children with third-degree burns to 50% of their bodies. Ivana Skayki, a nearly two-year-old Lebanese girl, lies in Geitaoui, recovering from severe burns sustained during Israeli strikes on her hometown, Al-Aliyah, in September. Burned over 40% of her body, she has undergone skin grafts and may soon be discharged. Israel claims it is trying to avoid civilian casualties, while accusing Hezbollah of placing fighters in residential areas, an accusation Hezbollah denies. Reuters

U.S. identifies almost 500 incidents of civilian harm during Israel's war on Gaza but has yet to take action.The U.S. State Department is tracking nearly 500 incidents of potential civilian harm involving U.S.-provided weapons in Israel’s devastating operations in Gaza since October 7, 2023. These incidents, which could potentially violate international humanitarian law, are traced through the State Department’s Civilian Harm Incident Response Guidance, a three-stage mechanism for analyzing harm caused by U.S.-supplied arms. However, none of the cases have yet advanced to the third stage, “coordinated department action,” which could include diplomatic moves, the suspension of arms exports, or the withholding of approvals. The government’s process examines civilian casualties, evaluates possible mitigation steps, and could lead to recommendations for training or adjustments in equipment. The Biden administration, however, has acknowledged the difficulty of assessing specific incidents, and said it continues to investigate thoroughly and “aggressively.” Advocacy groups strongly criticize the U.S. government for not sufficiently investigating the Jewish state’s use of U.S.-made weapons. John Ramming Chappell, an adviser at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, said the White House is consistently “ignoring” evidence of death and atrocities to keep up a “policy of virtually unconditional weapons transfers to the Netanyahu government.” He also said that Washington has repeatedly “deferred” to Israel and refused to conduct its own investigations, and that American taxpayers should know how Israel is using the arms that they “paid for.” Washington Post Reuters

German lawyers request court block ship purportedly transporting explosives to Israeli defense company. Human rights lawyers in Berlin have appealed to block the shipment of 150 metric tons of RDX military-grade explosives aboard the German cargo ship MV Kathrin, allegedly bound for Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems for potential use in Gaza. The European Legal Support Center (ELSC) filed the appeal on behalf of three Palestinians from Gaza, arguing that these explosives could contribute to possible war crimes. The ship’s owner, Lubeca Marine, claims it was never scheduled to dock in Israel and recently unloaded its cargo in Alexandria, Egypt. The ship has faced entry denials at various ports, including Namibia, Slovenia, Montenegro, and Malta, amid scrutiny over the cargo’s destination. Germany’s economy ministry, involved due to the ship's German ownership, stated the shipment does not qualify as a German export and thus does not require an export license. Reuters Times of Israel 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine’s frontline is ‘crumbling’ against Russian advances, says general. Col-Gen. Dmytro Marchenko admitted Ukraine’s frontline is "crumbling" due to dwindling ammunition, strained recruitment, and what he described as a misguided "victory plan" from President Volodymyr Zelensky. In an interview, Marchenko criticized Zelensky's strategy as overly reliant on Western aid, lacking focus on Ukraine’s immediate needs. The general reported Russian advances, including the town of Selydove, which he expects will be fully encircled soon, threatening Ukraine’s logistical hub in Pokrovsk. Marchenko’s remarks coincide with reports from other analysts noting Russian breaches across a 40-mile stretch near Selydove. This situation, worsened by Kyiv’s recruiting struggles, has raised concerns among Western allies about Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian pressure through winter. The Telegraph

Russia’s Swift March Forward in Ukraine’s East. In October 2024, Russian forces achieved their most rapid territorial gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas since mid-2022, seizing over 160 square miles, including strategic locations like Vuhledar and Selydove. This shift follows months of relentless assaults that eroded Ukrainian defenses, culminating in Russian forces pressing toward Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub. Military experts attribute Russia’s success to increased use of guided bombs, Ukrainian troop shortages, and weakened defensive lines as Ukraine redeployed seasoned units elsewhere. Experts highlight Ukraine’s stretched defenses and lack of fortified positions, which enabled Russia’s swift gains. The shift in Russian tactics, including encirclement strategies, has exacerbated Ukrainian vulnerabilities, particularly as territorial defense units now hold parts of the frontline. These developments underscore Russia’s renewed momentum and the pressure on Ukraine’s stretched resources in the Donbas. New York Times

Russia says it captures the village of Kruhliakivka. Russia claims to have captured Kruhliakivka near Kupiansk, a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Ukraine’s military hasn’t confirmed this but reported heavy fighting and frequent Russian shelling around Kupiansk. Ukrainian forces repelled multiple attacks, though Russia has continued advancing westward. Kupiansk and nearby areas remain strategic targets in Russia’s push through eastern Ukraine. Reuters

Chinese sanctions hit US drone maker supplying Ukraine. US drone maker Skydio, a major supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces severe disruptions after China imposed sanctions cutting off crucial supplies, including batteries. Following the Oct. 11 sanctions, Skydio, headquartered in California, is scrambling to find alternative suppliers and has requested assistance from the Biden administration. CEO Adam Bry highlighted China’s tactic of using supply chains as leverage, calling it an attempt to eliminate Skydio and deepen reliance on Chinese drones. The sanctions coincide with Beijing’s retaliation against US military support for Taiwan. Skydio’s drones have been pivotal in intelligence and war documentation in Ukraine, with the company now rationing battery supplies until new suppliers are secured by spring. US officials view this as a “clarifying moment,” underscoring risks tied to Chinese-dependent supply chains and hoping it will accelerate supply diversification. The crisis also raises concerns about China’s future moves to target other sectors as tensions with the US escalate. Financial Times

American Drone Startup Notches Rare Victory in Ukraine. Shield AI, a California-based startup, recently proved its V-BAT drones could withstand heavy Russian electronic warfare in Ukraine, distinguishing it as a rare success among U.S. drone manufacturers. Ukraine, typically reliant on local drones, has requested over 200 V-BATs after tests showed their resilience in jamming-heavy zones. Shield AI’s autonomous drones, which operate without GPS or radio, use AI-driven software, sensors, and Nvidia chips to navigate and identify targets, filling Ukraine's need for reliable, long-range aircraft. The company’s success in Ukraine may position it as a leader in military tech, though concerns remain over its production capacity and wartime experience. Wall Street Journal

North Korean troops deployed to the frontline will ‘surely return in body bags,’ US says. US envoy to the United Nations Robert Wood warned Wednesday that North Korean soldiers deployed by Russia to Ukraine “will surely return in body bags,” urging North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to reconsider this "reckless" move. The US and South Korea have called for North Korea to withdraw its troops, reportedly numbering over 10,000, with thousands already near Ukraine’s frontlines. This deployment marks a significant escalation, as North Korean forces actively support Russia against Ukraine, drawing concern from Western and South Korean officials. The Independent

US warns North Korea deployment could lengthen, broaden Ukraine war. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Wednesday that North Korea’s deployment of 10,000 troops to Russia risks prolonging and possibly expanding the Ukraine war. These North Korean forces are positioned in eastern Russia, near the Ukrainian border, appearing to support Russia’s operations in the Kursk region. Austin called this a “destabilizing escalation” and noted North Korean troops could face Ukrainian attacks using U.S.-supplied weapons. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun echoed concerns, warning that North Korea could gain Russian tactical nuclear and missile technology. Reuters Bloomberg

Russia asks at the UN: If the West aids Ukraine, why can't North Korea help us?  Speaking at the United Nations, Russia’s envoy, Vassily Nebenzia, questioned Wednesday why North Korea couldn’t support Russia in Ukraine if Western nations aid Kyiv. The rebuttal was swift: the US, South Korea, and others argued Russia’s actions violate the UN Charter and multiple Security Council resolutions, emphasizing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a clear breach of international law and widely deemed illegal. South Korea’s Ambassador Joonkook Hwang condemned North Korea’s involvement as unlawful, while Ukraine’s Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya pointed out that nations aiding Ukraine face no Security Council sanctions, unlike North Korea. Reuters

South Korea considers sending team to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops. South Korea may send military monitors to Ukraine to assess North Korean troop deployments aiding Russia, which Seoul views as a direct threat. An official reported that over 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, with some near Ukraine’s frontlines. Concerns include Pyongyang gaining military experience and technology in return, potentially boosting its ICBM and satellite capabilities. Russian officials acknowledge North Korea’s involvement, while North Korea denies it. Allies condemned this move, highlighting security risks globally. Reuters

Zelensky blasts leak of secret missile plan to the New York Times. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration Wednesday after a confidential request to the U.S. for Tomahawk missiles was leaked to The New York Times. Zelensky noted that Ukraine’s appeal for the long-range missiles, essential to its victory plan against Russia, was meant to be kept between allies, questioning whether there was any confidentiality “between partners.” The leak revealed U.S. officials deemed the request “unfeasible,” partly due to limited missile availability and concerns over escalating the conflict with Russia. Zelenskyy defended the request, stressing that the missiles would only be used if Russia failed to end the war voluntarily. Politico EU Kyiv Independent Reuters

Kremlin says Ukraine must be nervous if it's asking for US Tomahawk missiles. The Kremlin claimed Ukraine's request for U.S. Tomahawk missiles indicates Kyiv's nervousness over recent Russian advances. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggested Ukraine aims to involve Western nations in the conflict further, referencing President Volodymyr Zelensky's reported plea for long-range missiles to bolster Ukraine’s defenses. Reuters

Zelensky says Russia won in Georgia and is on the way to winning in Moldova. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Wednesday that Russia has already "won" in Georgia, seizing territory and influencing a pro-Russian government, and is advancing similarly in Moldova. Speaking in English, Zelensky urged the West to abandon rhetoric about respecting Russia’s "red lines," which he argues allows Russian influence to grow unchecked. Georgia’s contested parliamentary election and Moldova’s presidential runoff highlight choices between European alignment and Russian influence. Zelensky cautioned that Moldova could fall under Russia’s sway within one to two years without a stronger Western stance, paralleling Georgia’s current situation. Reuters

EU boosts energy aid to Ukraine ahead of harsh winter. Facing a harsh winter and widespread Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, Ukraine is receiving enhanced support from the European Union to stabilize its power supply. The EU plans to restore 25% of Ukraine’s winter energy needs, providing €160 million for equipment, including decentralized solar panels, generators, and a gas turbine from Estonia. A dismantled thermal plant from Lithuania will also be rebuilt in Ukraine. The EU's approach, spanning repair, grid synchronization with Europe, and localized solar power, aims to reduce Ukraine’s dependency on vulnerable infrastructure. EU diplomat Josep Borrell urged further air defense systems to protect these repairs and advocated allowing Ukraine to strike Russian launch sites to prevent attacks. Euronews

'We'll Survive': Ukrainians On Front Brace For Hard Winter. In Lyman, eastern Ukraine, residents brace for a harsh winter amid ongoing Russian attacks that have severely damaged infrastructure. Volodymyr, a lifelong resident, refuses to leave despite a recent bomb strike that shattered his windows and damaged his heating. He plans to endure the cold with minimal resources, determined to stay. With the electricity grid devastated, nearly half of Ukraine's generation capacity is compromised, leaving many towns without power, especially near the front line. Local authorities warn over 130 towns in Donetsk will lack electricity, while only three larger towns can expect heating. Residents like Yuri and Viktor Krupko, both in their seventies, have adapted to the conditions, preparing makeshift shelters in basements. Despite the relentless shelling and harsh winter, many remain resolute, choosing to stay in their homes even as family members leave for safer areas abroad. Barron’s

Kremlin denies Russia-Ukraine talks on halting energy strikes. On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied reports of talks between Russia and Ukraine on halting energy infrastructure strikes, dismissing a recent Financial Times report as “fake news.” This follows an alleged agreement that had already reduced the frequency of such attacks, according to a senior Ukrainian official. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Russia’s openness to pause strikes could indicate a readiness for broader peace discussions. Ukraine faces a severe winter, with much of its energy infrastructure destroyed by repeated Russian attacks, which devastated thermal and hydroelectric plants across the country between late 2023 and mid-2024. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Gets Patriot Air Defense System Boost From NATO Allies. Norway pledged $128 million to support Romania in sending an additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, preparing Kyiv for expected Russian strikes this winter. Ukraine is thought to have around five Patriot systems, though exact numbers remain unclear, with allies like the U.S. and Germany contributing full batteries and parts. Patriots are crucial to intercepting missiles, drones, and other threats, protecting Ukraine’s cities and critical infrastructure from Russia’s relentless aerial attacks. With limited interceptor supplies and mounting pressure, Ukraine has urged Western partners for more advanced air defenses. Newsweek

The rules of war aren't protecting civilians. Can they be enforced? The Geneva Conventions aim to protect civilians in war, but enforcement challenges arise as conflicts increasingly target non-combatants, exemplified in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Ukrainian rights advocate Olexandra Matviichuk has documented 78,000 Russian war crimes, highlighting atrocities and illegal deportations, including of children forced into Russian citizenship. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over child deportations and seeks similar actions for Israel and Hamas leaders. The rules of war are further tested when non-state actors, like Hamas, exploit civilian spaces, complicating humanitarian efforts. Meanwhile, state militaries, such as Israel's, argue military necessity in strikes on such sites. The resulting environment leaves civilians vulnerable and justice elusive, with leaders like Matviichuk stressing that for many victims, justice can mean imprisonment, compensation, or simply knowing the truth about lost loved ones. National Public Radio

Russian attack on Kharkiv kills two children, injures 34. On Wednesday night, Russia struck a residential neighborhood in Kharkiv, killing two boys aged 12 and 15 and injuring at least 34 people. The body of the 15-year-old remains under rubble. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov indicated the attack likely used a high-explosive FAB-500 bomb, devastating a 9-story building's entryway and sparking fires. Officials fear more casualties. Kharkiv, enduring intense Russian bombardment for over two years, faced further aerial attacks this week, including a bombing on Monday that damaged the UNESCO-protected Derzhprom building and claimed four lives. Reuters Kyiv Independent Associated Press

Russia accuses UK of using Black Sea corridor to supply Ukraine with arms. Russia accused the UK of using a Black Sea grain corridor to covertly supply arms to Ukraine, countering British claims that Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports were blocking grain shipments. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently alleged that Russian attacks on ports have hampered aid to Palestinians and grain supplies to the Global South. Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, dismissed Starmer’s accusations, asserting instead that the UK was directly involved in arming Ukraine through the corridor. Ukraine continues to use the corridor after a United Nations-backed grain initiative involving Russia collapsed last year. Reuters

Slovak PM Fico draws criticism with Russian TV appearance. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sparked domestic criticism after appearing on Russia’s state-run Rossiya-1 TV, expressing his intent to visit Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations in 2025 and criticizing the European Union’s stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Fico, whose government cut military support to Kyiv, argued that Western arms deliveries escalate the conflict and dismissed Ukraine’s peace plan as unrealistic. Opposition leader Michal Simecka condemned Fico’s focus on Russian relations over pressing domestic issues, calling it a “huge disgrace” and emphasizing that Slovakia’s foreign policy has shifted notably under Fico’s leadership. Fico said he wants to restore relations with Russia after the war in Ukraine, which he said now bores the West. "And today we all look at this war, and I feel, excuse the frankness, we look away and say: Here are your weapons, here is your money, fight, just don't bore us with it, we just don't want to have anything to do with it anymore, with this war," the Slovak prime minister said. Reuters Kyiv Independent Politico EU

New US President Needs to Forge Ukraine Truce, Serb Leader Says. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called on the next U.S. president to negotiate a truce in Ukraine, believing it to be the only viable path to ending the war. In an interview, Vucic argued that a ceasefire would benefit the West.  “Make a truce as soon as possible,” Vucic told Bloomberg in an interview in his Belgrade office on Tuesday. “Then there will be ways to reach long-term peace — but make this first step as soon as possible.” Vucic, who maintains ties with both Ukraine and Russia, recently spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting a ceasefire. However, Putin dismissed the idea, reaffirming his commitment to achieving the “special military operation’s goals.” Vucic's conversation with Putin also covered Serbia's gas dependency on Russia, as Serbia diversifies its energy sources but still needs Gazprom. Vucic’s stance underscores his balancing act between East and West, as he seeks stability while facing pressures from both NATO allies and Russian interests. Meanwhile, U.S. candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump differ on Ukraine, with Trump pledging to end the conflict quickly if elected. Bloomberg

Russian drones hunt civilians in streets of southern Ukrainian city.  Kherson residents face relentless Russian drone assaults that target civilians and essential services alike, with drones crashing into people, dropping grenades, and scattering mines. Local authorities report 133 killed and 1,350 injured from July to October, with ambulances, buses, and even children on bikes becoming frequent targets. Heavy rain offers brief relief, but sunny days reignite the terror. Stories of survival and loss abound, like Oleksandra Solonko’s attempt to rescue her father, who was killed retrieving water. Civilians live amid continuous risk, and while many have evacuated, others remain bound to their city despite the danger. Washington Post

Ukraine steps up wartime anti-graft push with payouts for whistleblowers. Ukraine has ramped up its anti-corruption measures during the war, offering payouts to whistleblowers who help expose high-level graft. Recently, two whistleblowers were rewarded with substantial payments after assisting in sting operations against corrupt officials. Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau hopes the payouts will encourage a broader culture of reporting corruption, a critical step as Ukraine seeks EU membership. Once convictions are secured, whistleblowers can receive 10% of the reported bribe amount, capped at $500,000. Additionally, an online portal allows public-sector employees to report corruption anonymously, with 4,000 reports filed since last year. Reuters

Radiation and Russian bombs threaten this Ukrainian city, so it’s building schools underground. In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, parents face the dual threats of Russian missile strikes and potential radiation leaks from Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, held by Russian forces since the early days of the 2022 invasion. The city has begun constructing underground schools for 12,000 students to ensure education and safety. These bomb- and radiation-proof facilities will allow students to escape the dangers that prevent traditional schooling. The nuclear plant, a critical point of contention, requires electricity from Ukrainian-controlled areas to keep essential safety systems functioning, yet frequent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid heighten risks of disconnection. Parents support the underground approach amid these challenges, as nearly four years of online learning have isolated children. Officials believe these new facilities will protect future generations, making it possible for families to remain in Zaporizhzhia despite the war. Associated Press

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Oct. 30. Western intelligence confirmed North Korean troops are now in occupied Ukraine, with numbers expected to rise following training in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted new intelligence cooperation with South Korea in response to Russian and North Korean military coordination. The Kremlin struggles to plan for the 2026 Duma elections, showing doubts about Russia's ability to win the war by then. Russia continues militarizing government roles and society, likely preparing for prolonged conflict with NATO. The US sanctioned 400 entities across multiple countries on October 30 to curb Russia’s sanctions evasion tactics.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, while Russian troops made gains in Kursk Oblast and other occupied areas. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: North Korea Troop Deal Exposes Putin's Weakness.Cipher Brief expert Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, argues that Russia’s reliance on North Korean troops exposes deep weaknesses in Vladimir Putin’s regime amid staggering losses in Ukraine. With around a million Russians dead, wounded, or fleeing the draft, Putin has resorted to external manpower sources, including North Korean troops, whose military impact is likely minimal. In return, North Korea is likely gaining advanced military technology, heightening security concerns for South Korea and the U.S. Stavridis warns that Russia’s economic decline, heavy military expenditure, and severe demographic challenges make it unstable. He suggests NATO should prepare for various outcomes, including the potential collapse of Putin’s regime. Ensuring Ukraine’s path to NATO and maintaining robust Western intelligence on Russian power dynamics are key. Bloomberg

AMERICAS

Pentagon short on air-defense missiles.  The U.S. is running low on some air-defense missiles, raising readiness questions. Interceptors are becoming the ordnance most sought-after by Israel and other U.S. allies under threat from missiles and drones. The U.S. has launched more than 100 Standard Missiles, which are ship-launched, to defend Israel from Iranian missile attacks to stop Houthi attacks on Western ships in the Red Sea. The Pentagon is concerned it is burning through its inventory faster than missiles can be replaced, leaving vulnerabilities if China starts a conflict. Analysts say the U.S. industrial base isn’t strong enough to equip allies in   Europe and the Middle East, and still meeting U.S. readiness standards. Wall Street Journal 

“Unacceptable:” White House condemns destruction of ballots, promises to help states.  The White House, in coordination with state officials, is assisting to replace ballots after suspected arsonists damaged ballots in drop boxes in Washington and Oregon. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre condemned the actions as “unacceptable,” and affirmed Americans' right to vote. The FBI is investigating the three linked arson cases, while efforts are underway to protect against similar future incidents. Reuters

Report says X platform inadequate to combat rise of U.S. election misinformation.The Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) on Wednesday reported that X's Community Notes feature, intended to crowd-source fact-checking, is largely ineffective in countering false U.S. election claims. Analyzing 283 misleading posts, CCDH found that 74% (209 posts) did not show accurate corrections to all users, leading to 2.2 billion views of uncorrected misinformation. CCDH urged the platform to invest in improved safety and transparency. The report follows a lawsuit that CCDH won against X this year over the platform's alleged tolerance of hate speech. Social media sites, including X, face ongoing criticism for disseminating misinformation on topics like elections and vaccines. In August, U.S. state officials requested that Musk fix X's chatbot, which reportedly circulated election-related misinformation. Musk himself has also been accused of spreading misinformation. Reuters

Biden administration sanctions 400 people and companies helping Russia’s war machine.  The State, Treasury and Commerce departments issued sanctions on nearly 400 entities and individuals for “enabling Russia’s prosecution of its illegal war.”  Those blacklisted are in China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India and other countries in the developing world. Russia used them to evade sanctions and procure technology and equipment for weapons used in its war on Ukraine, including electrical components and other critical dual-use goods, U.S. officials said. The sanctions also targeted Russian importers and producers that back their country’s military-industrial base. State Department  Treasury Department

U.N. again urges U.S. to lift embargo on Communist-controlled Cuba. For the 32nd consecutive year, the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly, 187-2, to condemn the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba. Only the U.S. and Israel opposed, with one abstention. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez strongly criticized the Biden administration, accusing it of exacerbating Cuba’s current economic and energy crises, which include severe blackouts. He also expressed hope that a new American president might lift the embargo. The controversial embargo, initially imposed in 1960 and strengthened two years later, has long isolated Cuba economically. Though General Assembly resolutions are non-binding, they reflect global sentiment, and this vote underscores the fact that Washington’s stance contrasts with most of the world. Rodriguez claimed the island nation suffered over $16 billion in losses during Biden's presidency, dismissing recent U.S. efforts to support Cuban private businesses as ineffective. U.S. Deputy Ambassador Paul Folmsbee defended sanctions as a means to promote human rights in Cuba, emphasizing U.S. support for Cuban people and ongoing humanitarian exports. Reuters Associated Press UN News 

Argentina’s pro-U.S. leader Milei sacks foreign minister who voted in favor of lifting embargo against Cuba. Argentine President Javier Milei fired Foreign Affairs Minister Diana Mondino on Wednesday, after she voted at the U.N. to lift the U.S. embargo on Cuba, a stance contrary to Milei's pro-U.S. and anti-leftist foreign policy. Milei, who supports alignment with the U.S. and Israel, voiced disapproval for the vote; his office later said it is "categorically opposed to the Cuban dictatorship.” This move further reinforces Argentina's intentional distancing from Cuba and Venezuela. Gerardo Werthein, Argentina’s ambassador to the U.S., was appointed as the new foreign minister. Mondino has been perceived as integral to her country’s public image abroad, often intervening to ease tensions following Milei’s frequent, confrontational statements. Reuters BBC France 24 

U.S. greenlights sale of F-16 jet equipment to Argentina for $941 million. The Pentagon on Wednesday revealed that the U.S. State Department has authorized the $941 million potential sale of F-16 fighter jet equipment and support to Argentina, with Lockheed Martin set to be the principal contractor for the sale. Reuters Aviation Week FlightGlobal  

Watchdog reports Canada would have to double defense spending in less than a decade to meet NATO target. Canada would need to nearly double its defense spending by fiscal 2032-33 to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target, a goal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to under U.S. and NATO pressure. However, this increase could conflict with Canada's fiscal anchors aimed at reducing the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios. The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) projects defense spending would impact the deficit, potentially exceeding fiscal targets by 2032-33, and estimates spending would only reach 1.58% of GDP by 2029-30, lower than the Department of National Defense's 1.76% projection. To meet NATO's target, annual defense expenditures would need to rise to C$81.9 billion by 2032-33, almost double the 2024-25 projection, though details on achieving this remain unspecified. Reuters 

U.N. says Haiti experiencing surge in killings, police executions with children targeted. U.N. officials report that violence in Haiti surged from July to September, with over 1,740 people killed or injured. This marks a 30% increase from the previous period, as gangs tighten control over 85% of Port-au-Prince. The U.N. Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) warned that gangs are now imposing their own rules, recruiting children, and using extreme brutality. The report said that victims have been “mutilated with machetes, stoned, decapitated, burned alive or buried alive.” Children were reportedly “not spared” from the violence. Self-defense groups have also doubled, resorting to violent acts against suspected gang members and adding to the chaos. Even law enforcement officials have contributed to the bloodshed, with BINUH reporting that they conducted at least 106 extrajudicial killings, with victims including multiple children as young as 10 years old. Associated Press 

El Salvador’s congress authorizes deployment of troop contingent to embattled Haiti. El Salvador’s Congress on Wednesday approved the deployment of a military contingent to Haiti as part of the U.N.’s Multinational Security Support Mission to assist with medical evacuations amid the Caribbean nation’s ongoing crisis. Patricia Aguilera of El Salvador's Foreign Affairs Ministry noted that this mission aligns with the country’s U.N. commitments, though details about the troop size were not disclosed. El Salvador will focus on medical evacuations, an area of experience from previous missions, and its commitment runs through October 2025. President Nayib Bukele has offered to share his nation’s gang-control strategies with Haiti, tactics which have significantly reduced violence in El Salvador. Associated Press Barron's 

Two Mexican journalists killed in separate attacks in the last 24 hours. Two journalists were shot dead in Mexico within 24 hours in the violence-stricken western states of Colima and Michoacan. Entertainment reporter Patricia Ramirez, also known as Paty Bunbury, was killed in a food shop she owned in Colima. 25-year-old Mauricio Cruz, head of the online news outlet MinutoXMinuto Michoacan, was killed in Uruapan, Michoacan just a few minutes after broadcasting live on his social networks an interview with a town mayor. These murders underscore the severe risks journalists face in Mexico, which has become one of the world's most dangerous countries for press. President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to combat crime but continues her predecessor's approach of not directly confronting drug cartels. Reuters Associated Press La Jornada Excelsior Reporters Without Borders Reuters CBS News 

Venezuela recalls Brazil envoy over Brazilian official acting like ‘a messenger for North American imperialism.’ Venezuela recalled its ambassador from Brazil, accusing Brazilian officials of "interventionist" actions after Brazil blocked Venezuela’s bid to join BRICS. Tensions escalated following Brazil's refusal to recognize Nicolás Maduro's July election victory, demanding official vote tallies, which Maduro’s government has withheld. Venezuela's Foreign Ministry condemned Brazil’s top advisor, Celso Amorim, labeling him a “messenger for North American imperialism.” Brazil, however, opted not to reciprocate diplomatically. Opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez’s exile further strains relations after claiming victory, supported by several nations. Despite tensions, Venezuela has seen substantial migration to Brazil amid economic and political instability. Reuters Al Jazeera 

Gang violence fears sparks migration surge from Ecuador to U.S. Gang violence has triggered a surge of migration from Ecuador as residents flee escalating extortion and crime. The fishing village of San Mateo, once peaceful, now faces constant threats from gangs demanding protection payments, called "vacunas," from all, including fishermen. This violence has dismantled the local economy and sown fear, driving people like Anthony Angulo to seek refuge in the U.S., where Ecuadorians are now among the top nationalities detained at the border. Many spend thousands to journey through perilous routes like the Darien Gap. Despite the risk, for some Ecuadorians, migration is their only hope for safety and stability. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Europe's small arms companies struggle for cash despite military spending boom. Despite surging demand due to the Ukraine war, small and medium-sized European defense companies face financing struggles due to banks’ environmental, social, and governance concerns and stringent lending policies. A European Union report estimates a debt financing gap of €1–2 billion, hindering growth and innovation. Smaller firms lack the capital needed for expansion and participation in government tenders, often relying on private or external EU sources. Unlike the U.S., where venture capital is readily available for defense, European companies struggle to access private and public funds. Officials call for a systemic shift to improve financing access, especially for small-to-medium businesses. Reuters 

Europe’s human rights watchdog urges Cyprus to let migrants stuck in UN buffer zone seek asylum. Europe’s human rights commissioner, Michael O’Flaherty, urged Cyprus to allow nearly 35 migrants stranded in the United Nations buffer zone to seek asylum, highlighting poor conditions affecting their health. These migrants, from countries like Syria and Sudan, are caught between Turkish and Greek Cypriot territories. While receiving basic aid, they lack full asylum access. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides defended strict migration controls but pledged to resolve the situation. Associated Press 

Switzerland adopts further sanctions against Belarus. Switzerland on Wednesday approved additional sanctions against Belarus, aligning with EU measures to prevent sanctions evasion by Russia. Effective Thursday, the sanctions include bans on investment in Belarus’s energy sector and restrictions on importing Belarusian gold, diamonds, coal, and oil. Exports of luxury goods, aviation fuel, and industrial-strengthening goods to Belarus are also prohibited. Reuters

German police launch manhunt for suspect who left bag of explosives at Berlin train station.  German police have initiated a search for a male suspect who fled from authorities after abandoning a bag of explosives at Berlin’s Neukoelln train station on Wednesday after being stopped by officers. The explosives were taken to a nearby parking area, where a controlled explosion was conducted. Although media reports suggest the bag contained TATP, a volatile explosive used in extremist attacks, police have not confirmed the type of explosive. The suspect remains unidentified, and authorities are exploring all possibilities. Reuters ABC Associated Press 

MIDDLE EAST

Former British soldier accused of aiding Iran tells London court he opposes Tehran. U.K. ex-soldier Daniel Abed Khalife, who has been accused of gathering sensitive information allegedly useful to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and escaping from prison, told jurors on Wednesday that he and his family oppose the Iranian regime. 23-year-old Khalife, who denies all charges against him, allegedly collected information between 2019 and 2022 and communicated with MI6, suggesting he wished to act as a double agent. Prosecutors also accuse him of a bomb hoax and prison escape, which led to a brief manhunt. Khalife testified about his and his family's disdain for the Iranian government, describing his time in the Middle Eastern nation negatively and explaining his intent to spread disinformation for British security interests. The trial is ongoing. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

US traded Chinese prisoner for American pastor jailed in China.  The Biden administration traded an unidentified Chinese citizen in U.S. custody with Beijing for California pastor David Lin, jailed in China for 16 years on trumped-up charges.  When Lin was released from China on Sept. 15, the administration did not disclose that it had swapped him for a Chinese citizen. The  administration is still working to free two more American citizens,  Mark Swidan and Kai Li,  considered “wrongfully detained.”  Lin, a China-born naturalized U.S. citizen, was arrested in 2006, when he was in China, helping local Christians build a “house church,” or a place of worship independent of state-sanctioned religious institutions. He was sentenced to life in prison on bogus charges of contract fraud. Politico  

North Korea’s Kim praises ICBM test, calls it 'appropriate military action' against adversaries.  Pyongyang said it tested an upgraded intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, with leader Kim Jong Un asserting that the test was a warning to adversaries threatening North Korean security. The launch set new North Korean records for altitude and flight duration, reaching 7,000 km in height, flying a distance of 1,000 km, and lasting 87 minutes. The missile landed in waters off Japan’s Hokkaido. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said that the flight time was the country’s “longest ever. Possibly the newest missile ever.” Observers, including Seoul, suggest Pyongyang may be receiving missile technology from Russia in exchange for deploying 11,000 troops, reportedly aiding Moscow’s efforts in Ukraine. The missile test drew immediate condemnation from South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., who expressed concerns about the nation’s growing military capabilities. South Korea warned that the cooperation between North Korea and Russia could lead to technology transfers involving tactical nuclear weapons and ballistic missile systems. Reuters CNN  Reuters Associated Press The Hill  

Seoul targets Pyongyang’s missile development with new export curbs on materials. South Korea on Thursday unveiled new export curbs on 15 materials required to manufacture solid-fuel missiles, to limit North Korea's ballistic missile development. The controls cover items like fuselages and combustion tubes, which North Korea struggles to produce independently, reinforcing international sanctions against its missile program. Reuters  

Rights group details how scores of North Koreans defectors seized by secret police have “vanished.”A report released on Thursday by the Seoul-based Transitional Justice Working Group (TJWG) revealed that over 100 North Koreans have disappeared after being detained by the Ministry of State Security (MSS), Pyongyang’s secret police, or while attempting to defect. Based on interviews with 62 North Korean escapees, the report documents 113 cases of forced disappearances, with 80% of detentions occurring within North Korea and the remainder in China or Russia. Many were apprehended for trying to escape, contacting people abroad, or being linked to another's alleged crime. TJWG aims to highlight these disappearances as transnational crimes involving Beijing and Moscow. The report was released ahead of the U.N. Human Rights Council's review of North Korea. It is estimated that up to 200,000 people are held in harsh prison camps, where they face starvation, torture, rape, and forced labor. Pyongyang has dismissed such accusations as Western fabrications. Reuters

How the Philippines’ coastguard measures up against others amid deepening South China Sea tensions. The U.S. has contributed $8 million to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) amid rising tensions with China over the hotly disputed South China Sea, and this support from Washington highlights Manila’s need to balance diplomatic and active defense strategies to manage these spats effectively. The funding will support PCG infrastructure, training, and resource management, complementing past aid from Japan. Compared with other claimant states in the region, China maintains the largest coastguard fleet, with heavily armed vessels deployed near contested areas such as the Scarborough Shoal. Regional coastguard capabilities vary, with countries like Indonesia and Malaysia relying heavily on their navies for enforcement, and lacking coastguard capacity. Analysts suggest the Philippines adopt a "hybrid" approach, blending "quiet diplomacy" with assertive measures given China's aggressive tactics, which have included the use of lasers and water cannons. Manila is advised to enhance transparency regarding Beijing’s intimidating actions while adopting a flexible strategy combining diplomatic restraint with tactical measures to secure its interests in the sensitive waters. South China Morning Post 

U.N. calls for investigation into killings during Bangladesh’s devastating protests.U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has called for a probe into the killings during Bangladesh’s recent protests, which resulting in the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The protests began in July as a student-led movement against job quotas, and rapidly escalated into violent demonstrations. Over 1,000 people were killed, and numerous wounded. Hasina fled to India on August 5, and an interim government headed by Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus swiftly took over. Türk emphasized the need for a national process of truth and healing, justice for the violence against protesters, and swift action to protect minorities facing attacks amidst the unrest. Reuters Associated Press

AFRICA

Uganda straining to feed over 1.7 million refugees as international support shrinks. Refugees in Uganda are struggling to provide for their families due to cutbacks in humanitarian food rations, a lack of work, and the mounting resentment of locals. Uganda, the largest refugee-hosting country on the continent, hosts over 1.7 million refugees, mainly from South Sudan and Congo, and about 10,000 new people arrive each month. Unfortunately, the nation is dealing with strained resources as international aid declines significantly. Refugees living in settlements with limited land for cultivation face reduced food assistance from the U.N., with rations dropping steeply after their first few months. And while refugees have access to schools and hospitals, competition for limited resources occasionally sparks tensions with local communities. Despite Uganda’s efforts to help these displaced populations to become self-sufficient through skills training, funding shortages hinder these programs, and food insecurity and poverty have only intensified. During a recent visit, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi emphasized the urgent need for international support, as the East African nation’s resources are overstretched. Associated Press 

Medical associations report at least 10 shot and killed in Mozambique post-election protests.  Post-election protests in Mozambique turned violent last week, with at least 10 people killed and 63 injured by gunfire, according to medical associations. The protests erupted following allegations that the ruling party, Frelimo, had rigged the October 9 election to maintain its nearly five-decade hold on power. Police responded to protests with teargas and live ammunition, claiming they acted to restore order. Human Rights Watch reported that actual casualties might be higher, and the U.S. has called for an investigation following the shooting of an opposition lawyer and official. Opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane, who disputes the election results, has urged further protests. Concerns over possible unrest have led residents in the capital of Maputo to stock up on supplies. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Russian-linked ‘Midnight Blizzard’ hackers target government, other critical sectors. Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence team reports the Midnight Blizzard actors aligned with Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) have launched a “highly targeted spear-phishing” operation against government staff and other organizations over the last week.  According to Microsoft, Midnight Blizzard has sent phishing emails containing configuration files for Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) to “thousands of targets in over 100 organizations” representing critical sectors.  The RDP files “contained several sensitive settings that would lead to significant information exposure.”  The goal of the campaign, researchers say, is to gain full access to targeted devices.  In the event of a successful system compromise, Microsoft explained, the malware “connected to the actor-controlled server and bidirectionally mapped the targeted user’s local device’s resources to the server.”  The phishing operation has been directed at individuals around the globe, including in Britain, Europe, Australia, and Japan.  Microsoft noted that the using RDP configuration files was new to Midnight Blizzard tactics.  The Record Cybernews

North Korean espionage hackers seen collaborating with Play ransomware actors.  A report from Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42 describes an operation conducted by hackers linked to North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB) in September that indicates collaboration with the Play ransomware gang.  Researchers did not identify the target of the ransomware attack carried out by a threat actor tracked as “Jumpy Pisces,” which “is now collaborating with the Play ransomware gang.”  Palo Alto noted that this operation was “the first observed instance of the group using existing ransomware infrastructure, potentially acting as an initial access broker (IAB) or an affiliate of the Play ransomware group.”  The September attack signaled deeper North Korean involvement in the ransomware sector, according to Unit 42, with the expectation that “their attacks will increasingly target a wide range of victims globally.”  Researchers say the North Korean actors back in May performed the initial steps in gaining access to the targeted organization’s systems through a compromised user account.  This led to the deployment in September of the Play ransomware after an “unidentified threat actor entered the network through the same compromised user account used by Jumpy Pisces.”  Researchers added that “it remains unclear whether Jumpy Pisces has officially become an affiliate for Play ransomware or if they acted as an [initial access broker] by selling network access to Play ransomware actors.”  The Record BleepingComputer

FBI warns of four election-related scam operations aimed at money, data thefts. The FBI has issued a warning of multiple election-related scamming operations that are seeking to defraud individuals or extract their personal data.  The threat actors, according to the FBI, are using candidates' names, images, logos, and slogans to solicit bogus campaign contributions, sell nonexistent merchandise, or steal personal information for reuse in other fraud operations.  The FBI public service announcement identified four scam operations, in particular, including an “investment pool” campaign that promises a payout for choosing a successful candidate.  Scammers also resort to masquerading as authentic political action committees to solicit donations or operating bogus product websites that never deliver promised campaign-related items.  Phishing operations also have been identified that lure voters into clicking on emailed links that lead to websites where personal information can be stolen.  BleepingComputer   Cybernews

National Cyber Director notes slow federal use of key internet routing technology.  National Cyber Director Harry Coker told a technology forum Wednesday that the flood of cyberattacks on federal agencies, alongside other cyber challenges, is complicating their efforts to adopt new ways of defending government networks.  That is one reason, Coker said, that his office takes on complex issues such as implementing solutions like Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which synchronizes over 70,000 independent networks, allowing IP addresses to transfer routing information around the world.  However, Coker warned, threat actors can exploit BGP systems:  “More recently we have seen sophisticated attacks, BGP hijacks, increase.  Recent incidents have resulted in the loss of millions of dollars.”  That has led Coker’s office to produce a roadmap advocating the adoption of Resource Public Key Infrastructure (RPKI).  RPKI can authenticate BGP routing but requires a registration process.  It is only recently, Coker noted, “that a bare majority of global internet addresses were appropriately registered in RPKI to allow internet service providers to filter all surrounding advertisements and prevent attacks to hijack.”  And, he added, federal agencies are behind in that registration process.  “By the end of this year,” Coker said, “we expect over 60 percent of the federal IP space to be covered by registered service agreements.”  CyberScoop

SpaceX attracting increasing commitments from U.S. defense, intelligence sector.  The DoD’s Space Development Agency (SDA) last month marked a milestone when it used lasers to transmit data to military satellites.  It also was a milestone for SpaceX, which provided the satellites and is becoming more deeply involved in space operations for defense and intelligence.  In an arena traditionally dominated by major defense contractors, SpaceX appears ready to expand its role in this sector through satellite launches and providing the government with satellite buses — satellite bodies without internal components.  SpaceX has received DoD funding for the development of a next-generation satellite bus for use on its Starlink satellite system.  The National Reconnaissance Office will employ these advanced satellite buses as it builds out its new spy satellite network.  The involvement of SpaceX in sensitive government programs is not without its critics given the involvement of its owner, Elon Musk, in partisan political activities and his ties to China-based business and Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted the complication of dealing with a company where the government lacks visibility into their finances.  Harrison added, “and it is controlled by the richest man in the world, who has gotten heavily involved in the politics and heavily involved with some foreign leaders who are adversaries of the United States.”  While SpaceX has demonstrated its reliability as a component and service provider, the Pentagon itself is aware of the tradeoffs involved in committing to a dominant vendor in the space sector.  The Defense Science Board recently assessed that “dependence upon a sole vendor has the potential to negate the strengths of the market by stifling innovation and inflating prices.  This can culminate in a de facto monopoly, cementing a stagnant and wasteful anticompetitive paradigm.”  New York Times

China proceeding with uncrewed cargo shuttle to service space station. China has committed to the development of a new space shuttle model that is uncrewed and reusable, reducing the costs of transferring cargo to and from the Tiangong space station.  According to Lin Xiqiang, deputy director of the China Manned Space Agency, a contract has been given to put the Haolong reusable vessel through engineering flight verification.  A second space shuttle that also received an agency contract is not reusable.  Lin said the new vessels could promote the “rapid, orderly and healthy development of commercial aerospace.”  The Haolong cargo shuttle can be launched by a carrier rocket for docking at the space station with reentry culminating in a horizontal landing on an airport runway.  According to the firm involved in the shuttle’s design, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), the spacecraft features a large wingspan and a high lift-to-drag ratio allowing large cargo payloads.  AVIC said the goal of the Haolong project was to reduce costs and create a safe, reliable and efficient system for carrying cargo between the Earth and space.  South China Morning Post

Chinese ‘blueprint’ for quantum-proof protocol approved at international meeting.  A Chinese design blueprint presented earlier this month at an international conference has led to expectations that China will play a leading role in developing a “quantum-proof” communications protocol.  According to the Xinhua news agency, the draft design unveiled at the conference in Sweden was unanimously approved by more than 50 experts representing 12 countries, including the U.S., Britain, Switzerland, Austria, Japan, South Korea and Canada.  A member of the Chinese delegation, Zhang Lulu, secretary general of China’s WAPI Alliance focused on network security, told Xinhua that “the proposal submitted by Chinese experts aims to provide guidance for the migration of global communication networks to post-quantum cryptography.”  Dong Mingfu, deputy general manager of Koal Software, a Chinese cryptography company, says the fast development of quantum computing technology makes transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration an urgent task.  China last year established a working group to examine laws, policies and industrial progress on quantum-proof cryptography technology.  The group is expected to release research reports and promote a domestic action program in quantum cryptography.  South China Morning Post

Industry body urges increased Federal funding, leadership in quantum sensing. A study by the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QEDC) urges the Federal government to increase funding for quantum sensing research and development in order to surpass China in a sector with broad national security implications.  The QEDC study, which received funding from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), said the $900 million Federal outlays for quantum sensing research need to grow in order to attain new defense-related instruments like quantum magnetometers, gravimeters, and clocks that do not depend on space-based signals for navigation and timing.  QEDC executive director Celia Merzbacher said that quantum sensing development is still in early stages, with government funding needed to “accelerate the pace and ensure that the stringent requirements for government use cases such as military and space applications, e.g. to operate in extreme environments, will be met.”  Participants in a recent QEDC workshop noted that in addition to funding, the Federal government should act as an “early adopter,” which would “not only advance the technology’s reliability but also position the government as a primary driver in creating cost-effective, scalable quantum solutions for national security needs.”  DefenseOne Quantum Economic Development Consortium

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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