Report for Thursday, October 3, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Israeli airstrikes hit central Beirut and Damascus, as Israeli troops move into southern Lebanon

Zelensky compares Western help for Israel and Ukraine

U.S. charges 5 Chinese nationals for sneaking around Michigan military facility in dead of night

CIA ramps up recruitment of informants to China, Iran, North Korea

Global chip firms monitoring hurricane impact on North Carolina quartz mines

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Ex-Secretary of Defense: Iran’s Attack Ushers in ‘Dangerous World’ in Middle East  The Cipher Brief

Ex-US Commander: In Mideast, ‘We’re in the Wider War Now’  The Cipher Brief

Iran’s Attack – and Likely Israeli Response – Bring Dangerous ‘New Normal’ to Middle East  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli air strike hits central Beirut, killing at least six. Damascus building hit, three killed.  Israel bombed a multi-story block in central Beirut early Thursday, killing at least six people, according to Lebanese health authorities.  Reuters reported that the strike, the first to hit Beirut’s center, targeted a building in the Bachoura neighborhood close to Lebanon’s parliament building.  During the night, five more air strikes hit targets in the southern suburb of Dahieh, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week in an intense bombardment.  The Israeli military said regular Army infantry and armored troops from the 36th Division, including the Golani Brigade, the 188th Armored Brigade and 6th Infantry Brigade moved into Lebanon Wednesday. Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli air raids killed at least 46 people in south and central Lebanon over the previous 24 hours.  Hezbollah claimed it repelled Israeli forces near several border towns and also fired rockets at military posts inside Israel. A Hezbollah official said the group had enough fighters, weapons and ammunition to push back Israel.  Syria’s state-run SANA news agency said an Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building in Damascus Wednesday evening, killing three people and wounding at least three others. The Jerusalem Post, quoting Syrian and Saudi media, reported that Israel also allegedly struck a weapons depot on the Syrian coast.  BBC New York Times  Reuters Associated Press Jerusalem Post

Eight Israeli soldiers killed during ground offensive into Lebanon.  The Israeli military announced Wednesday that seven soldiers were killed in two Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon Wednesday. The eighth death, also announced Wednesday, was a 22-year-old captain and squad commander in the Egoz Unit, a special operations unit.  The Israeli military did not give details on how or where the soldiers died. It said ground forces backed by airstrikes killed militants in “close-range engagements.”  Israeli media reported infantry and tank units operating in southern Lebanon.  Associated Press Jerusalem Post  Jerusalem Post

It’s not if Israel will retaliate against Iran for its missile barrage. It’s when, and what ignites next.  Israeli officials are considering targeting Iran’s oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites, Axios reported Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, speaking Wednesday at a virtual event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Biden administration supports an Israeli military response but wants to avoid “sustained hostilities that will imperil not only Israel's but our strategic interests as well."  On Tuesday the White House said, Biden held a conference call with the leaders of Italy, France, the U.K., Germany, Canada, Japan and the EU to coordinate the response to Iran’s attack,  including new sanctions against Iran. “ All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond in proportion,” Biden said Wednesday.  “ ... we are giving them advice. I will talk to Bibi relatively soon," Biden told reporters on Wednesday, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."We know how to locate important targets and hit them in a powerful and precise way. We can conduct strikes in any place in the Middle East and if one of our enemies hasn't understood that until now, it will understand it soon," Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gen. Herzi Halevi said Wednesday."There must be a return message and there are deliberations ongoing... but as important as a response of some kind should be, there is also a recognition that the region is balancing on a knife's edge and there are real concerns about even broader escalation," he said.  New York Times  Axios 

Will Israel strike Iran’s nuclear program?  President Biden told reporters Wednesday he wouldn't support Israel striking Iran's nuclear facilities. The response was prompted by CBS correspondent Margaret Brennan’s question to the vice presidential candidates Tuesday night: would they support a pre-emptive strike on Iran on grounds that Tehran has “drastically reduced the time it would take to develop a nuclear weapon” to “one or two weeks?”  Gov. Tim Walz  changed the subject.  Sen. J.D. Vance said yes:  “It is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe. And we should support our allies wherever they are when they're fighting the bad guys.”  On Wednesday, the New York Times tried to correct the record by pointing out that Brennan’s premise was incorrect:  Nuclear experts said Iran needed not weeks but months or a year to acquire The Bomb.  New York Times Axios

China calls on U.N. Security Council to ease Middle East crisis. China has implored the U.N. Security Council to take “urgent actions” to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East as Israel initiated attacks on Lebanon on Wednesday. China's representative to the U.N. urged the Security Council to make clear demands to stop the cycle of violence and to encourage “political and diplomatic solutions.” Beijing warned that the conflict risks expanding into a larger regional war, creating a humanitarian disaster, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon. China also condemned violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty and called for immediate efforts to prevent further aggravation. Reuters

Israel proclaims U.N. Chief Guterres persona non grata. Israel has made the decision to bar U.N. Secretary General António Guterres from entering the country, with Foreign Minister Israel Katz declaring him persona non grata on Wednesday, in a move that reflects Israel's frustration over what it perceives as the U.N.'s failure to strongly condemn recent Iranian missile attacks on Israel. In a statement, Katz indignantly asserted that “anyone who cannot unequivocally condemn Iran’s heinous attack on Israel . . . does not deserve to set foot on Israeli soil.” While Guterres has denounced both Hamas' attack on Israel and Iranian missile attacks, he has also called for a cease-fire in Gaza and criticized Israel’s brutality toward Palestinian civilians. There are broad tensions between Israel and the U.N., with the former accusing the U.N. agency UNRWA of links to Hamas, though an independent review found no widespread evidence to support these claims. The U.S. criticized Israel's decision to bar Guterres as unproductive. New York Times BBC Jerusalem Post 

Gaza authorities report heavy casualties from Israeli attacks.  The Gaza Health Ministry and local officials reported an Israeli military operation, including action by Israeli ground forces and airstrikes, in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis killed at least 51 people and injured 82 on Wednesday. In Gaza City, the al-Amal Institute for Orphans said an Israeli bombardment hit one of its orphanage buildings where displaced civilians were sheltering, killing at least eight people. Elsewhere, Gaza officials said Israeli strikes hit two schools in Gaza, killing at least 22 people. Israel’s military said the schools were being used as Hamas command and control centers. France’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes on the schools and orphanage building.  New York Times 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian Missiles, American Chips.On Aug. 19, 2023, a Russian Iskander-K missile struck Chernihiv’s central square during a religious holiday celebration, killing seven people and injuring 214. Forensic investigators discovered that the missile contained Western-made components, raising concerns about Russia’s ability to bypass export controls and source crucial military technology. Despite sanctions restricting Russia’s access to military-use technology, a Bloomberg investigation revealed widespread evasion. Russia sources these parts through intermediaries in China, Hong Kong, and other countries, bypassing export controls. Investigators identified thousands of Western-made components in Russian weapons, highlighting gaps in enforcement. Experts say Western companies and governments must tighten their supply chains and improve monitoring to prevent critical technology from ending up in Russian military hands, undermining sanctions. Bloomberg

Zelensky compares Western help for Israel and Ukraine. In his nightly address on Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky compared Western responses to missile threats in Ukraine and the Middle East. He criticized Western allies for not shooting down Russian missiles near Ukraine’s borders while highlighting the contrast in how the international coalition responds in support of Israel. “Every time in the Middle East, during brutal Iranian strikes, we see the international coalition acting together,” he said. Zelensky emphasized the need for cooperation in shooting down Shahed drones and missiles, especially near NATO countries. He also praised countries like Romania for providing air defense systems, such as the Patriot system, to help Ukraine and called for further collaboration to end Russian missile attacks. Ukrainska Pravda

The fall of Vuhledar is a microcosm of Ukraine’s wartime predicament. The fall of Vuhledar, after two years of intense fighting, highlights Ukraine's vulnerabilities as it faces Russia’s grinding advances. Despite Vuhledar's importance at the junction of eastern and southern fronts, Ukraine's forces withdrew to avoid encirclement, powered by Russia's manpower advantage, aerial bombardments, and superior electronic warfare capabilities. The town's loss follows Ukraine’s inability to secure permission to strike deep inside Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range weapons. Russia's attrition-based approach, combined with Western restrictions, complicates Ukraine's defense as it heads into another wartime winter. Ukrainian troops are outnumbered and outgunned, with little prospect of relief given problems recruiting and training more troops. The loss of Vulhedar, 82 kilometers southwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk, ratchets up pressure on defenses in Pokrovsk. However, Russian forces must first battle to take full control of a reservoir outside Kurakhove, which is 31 kilometers north of Vuhledar and 47 kilometers south of Pokrovsk. Associated Press PoliticoEU RFE/RL Wall Street Journal CNN

Ukraine ATACMS Strikes Destroy Long-Range Russian Radar Station Worth $100 million. Ukrainian forces, using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, destroyed a Russian Nebo-M long-range radar station, Kyiv announced on Thursday. The radar's destruction reduces Russia's ability to detect and intercept aerodynamic and ballistic targets. The Nebo-M, valued at $100 million, is a complex system capable of operating in stealth mode. With only 10 units remaining, the loss opens up opportunities for Ukraine to more effectively use advanced Western weapons like British Storm Shadow and French SCALP cruise missiles. Newsweek Ukrainska Pravda

US will allow Ukraine to hit deep into Russia, ex-envoy says. Cipher Brief Expert Kurt Volker, former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, believes the Biden administration will gradually lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia, likely on a case-by-case basis. If Donald Trump is elected, Volker predicts a more aggressive approach, with unlimited U.S. weapons support for Ukraine. Volker also asserts that Ukraine's NATO membership must be part of a peace settlement. He criticizes NATO’s weak response to Russian incursions into its airspace and dismisses Putin's recent nuclear threats as attempts to sway Western policies rather than genuine shifts in doctrine. Deutsche Welle

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 41 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed two people and injured 41, local authorities said Thursday. The two deaths came in Kherson Oblast, where 24 settlements came under attack, which also injured eight. Two men were injured in Nikopol in drone and artillery strikes. In Donetsk Oblast, 11 people were injured across several towns and villages. In Kharkiv, a guided bomb hit a residential building, injuring 12. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches major drone attack on Ukraine on Thursday, damages energy infrastructure. Russian forces launched a major overnight drone attack on 15 Ukrainian regions, damaging energy infrastructure and residential buildings, authorities said Thursday. Ukraine’s air force intercepted 78 of 105 drones, with 23 more likely disrupted by electronic jamming. The attacks hit power lines and substations in Kyiv, Odesa, and Ivano-Frankivsk, temporarily disrupting railway services and causing power outages. Russia claimed to target Ukrainian military energy supplies. Meanwhile, Russia claimed to have shot down 113 Ukrainian drones across four regions, with 73 destroyed over Belgorod. Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Russia's Voronezh Oblast. Russian warehouses containing guided aerial bombs, hangars with Su-35 and Su-34 aircraft, and aviation fuel storage facilities were targeted. Reuters ABC News Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Russian guided bomb hits apartment building in Kharkiv, wounding at least 12. A Russian KAB guided bomb on Wednesday struck a five-story apartment building in Kharkiv’s Saltivka district, injuring at least 10 people. The bomb hit between the third and fourth floors, causing fires and fears of residents trapped under the rubble. This attack is one of many on Kharkiv, a regional capital of 1.4 million people, near the Russian border. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russian drones attack port infrastructure, power substations in Ukraine. Russian drones attacked Ukraine’s southern Odesa region on Wednesday, damaging port infrastructure, a grain facility, and buildings at the Orlivka border crossing to Romania. Two lorry drivers were injured. In northern Ukraine, drones hit a power substation in Sumy, cutting power to over 80,000 consumers. Ukraine's air force destroyed 11 of 32 drones launched. Reuters

Russian proxies in occupied Kherson Oblast announce forced conscription of Ukrainians. Russian proxies in occupied Kherson Oblast have announced the forced conscription of Ukrainian men aged 18 to 30 into the Russian army until Dec. 31. The conscripts will serve in Russia's Southern Military District, which includes illegally annexed Ukrainian territories. The Moscow-appointed leader of the region claimed they would not be sent to front-line areas. This follows similar forced conscription efforts in 2023 across occupied Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian officials have condemned this as a war crime, advising residents to flee, as Russia reportedly uses conscripted Ukrainians as cannon fodder in the war. Kyiv Independent

Putin signs law allowing criminal defendants to join the military. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday signed a law allowing criminal defendants to avoid prosecution by joining the military. Defendants in pre-trial detention can have their cases suspended and be exempted from criminal liability after military service. This move is part of Russia's effort to bolster its war in Ukraine, with plans to conscript 20,000 detainees from 210 pre-trial detention centers. Moscow has been recruiting convicts since 2022, first through the Wagner Group and later directly under the Russian Defense Ministry. Kyiv Independent

Russian court to hear case of American charged as mercenary behind closed doors. A Russian court decided to hear the case of Stephen Hubbard, a U.S. citizen accused of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine, behind closed doors, Russian state news agency TASS reported on Thursday. Russian state media have cited prosecutors as saying Hubbard signed a contract with a Ukrainian territorial defense unit in Izyum in February 2022. He was captured by Russian forces that April. Reuters

Croatia Backs Out Of NATO Ukraine Mission Over National Security Concerns. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic refused to approve Croatian soldiers' participation in NATO's mission supporting Ukraine, citing concerns about the war spreading and endangering national security. While NATO reaffirmed its support for Ukraine, Milanovic argued that involving Croatia in the mission isn't in the country's interest. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic criticized the decision, accusing Milanovic of manipulating the issue. Milanovic has previously opposed military aid to Ukraine and expressed skepticism toward Western sanctions on Russia. RFE/RL

Hungarian Foreign Minister says EU plans to send military advisers to Ukraine. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said the European Union plans to send military advisers to Ukraine as part of the EU Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM), which trains Ukrainian soldiers. Hungary opposes this proposal, citing concerns that it could escalate the war. Szijjártó said that Budapest will not participate, calling the move "dangerous." The EUMAM mission, established in 2022, currently conducts training primarily in Poland and Germany. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine wants UN nuclear watchdog to place foreign observers near all its nuclear plants. Ukraine is in discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to place foreign observers near its nuclear power plants, aiming to safeguard them amid concerns that Russia may target infrastructure connecting these plants to the energy grid. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia plans to strike three power plants. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said IAEA missions could help ensure nuclear safety and prevent attacks. Ukraine's reliance on nuclear power is critical, especially after losing energy capacity due to Russian strikes on other power infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian Armor to produce 155mm shells using Czechoslovak Group's technology, components. Ukrainian Armor has partnered with the Czech Czechoslovak Group (CSG) to produce 155mm artillery shells using CSG's technology and components, with production starting in 2025. This cooperation aims to bolster Ukraine's shift to NATO-standard ammunition, as supplies of Soviet-caliber shells dwindle. Ukrainian Armor plans to produce 100,000 rounds in 2025 and 300,000 by 2026, with manufacturing in Ukraine and the Czech Republic. The agreement also includes plans for other defense products, enhancing Ukraine's ammunition independence from Western partners. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's defense procurement agencies should be kept separate, NATO reaffirms. NATO reaffirmed that Ukraine's two defense procurement agencies, the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and the State Rear Operator (DOT), should remain separate during wartime to maintain independence and anti-corruption measures. This comes after Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov suggested merging them. The agencies, established to meet NATO standards, focus on lethal and non-lethal aid respectively. NATO emphasized the importance of independent supervisory boards for both agencies. Kyiv Independent

'Chinese Mercenaries' Fighting for Russia Killed in Ukraine. Two Chinese nationals, serving as mercenaries for Russia, were reportedly killed in Ukraine, according to Russian social media accounts. The soldiers were honored by a pro-war volunteer group. While thousands of foreigners have fought for Russia since the 2022 invasion, there has been little concrete evidence of Chinese involvement until now. Beijing maintains neutrality in the war but has strengthened ties with Moscow. Ukraine has also reported Chinese dual-use components in Russian weapons. Newsweek

Russia Deploys 'Largest Non-Nuclear Bomb' in Ukraine. Newly released footage shows a Russian thermobaric "vacuum bomb" striking Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. Pro-Kremlin sources claim the bomb was the powerful ODAB-9000, though Ukrainian officials say a smaller munition was used. The strike follows Russia's loss of the Volchansky chemical plant and is seen as retaliation. While thermobaric bombs have been used before, experts are uncertain about the weapon. The attack underscores Moscow’s escalating air and missile strikes. Newsweek

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, October 2, 2024. Ukraine is ramping up domestic production of military equipment, aiming to produce four million drones annually and 15 Bohdan artillery systems per month, while prioritizing long-range missiles. Latvia bolstered air defense near its border with Russia, deploying mobile combat groups and radars after a Russian drone crash in the region.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Svatove, Siversk, Vuhledar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The Only Way the Ukraine War Can End. Anne Applebaum argues that the Ukraine war can only end when Russia stops fighting. Despite Ukraine's asymmetric warfare successes, like using drones to defeat Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the war continues due to Russia's unwillingness to negotiate and its commitment to conquest. Applebaum stresses that Western allies must support Ukraine more decisively. She warns that a failure to defeat Russia will lead to broader global consequences. Ultimately, she believes the Kremlin must accept that Ukraine is not Russian. The Atlantic 

Opinion: West Needs a Rapid Rethink as Russia Inches Forward. Nico Lange argues that as Russian forces make slow but steady gains in Ukraine, the West needs a more decisive strategy. Russia’s heavy losses suggest a major breakthrough is unlikely soon. Lange calls for providing Ukraine with long-range precision weapons, bolstering its defense industry, and improving air defense. He stresses that the West must define clear war aims to force Russia into negotiations and avoid a prolonged war that would gradually destroy Ukraine. Swift action by Western leaders could help turn the situation around for Ukraine. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

U.S. charges 5 Chinese nationals for sneaking around Michigan military facility in dead of night. Five Chinese nationals, all of them former University of Michigan students, have been charged with lying to U.S. authorities and attempting to delete incriminating photos after being confronted about snooping around near Camp Grayling, a military site in Michigan, in August 2023. Although they were not charged for their actions at the time, they are accused of misleading investigators about their visit and conspiring to erase evidence. The FBI's investigation revealed that the group had booked a nearby motel and took photos of military vehicles on the night they were spotted by a National Guard officer. The men initially claimed they were there to view a meteor shower, and later communicated about clearing their phones of photos. The men remain at large, and will be arrested if they come into contact with U.S. authorities. This case follows other similar incidents of Chinese students photographing sensitive American defense sites. Associated Press Detroit News

U.S. bans import of certain Chinese goods over human rights concerns. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Wednesday announced a ban on imports from two Chinese companies—a steel manufacturer and an artificial sweetener maker—accused of using forced labor from China's Xinjiang region. This move, under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, extends U.S. efforts to prevent goods tied to human rights abuses from entering the country. It marks the first time a Chinese steel and aspartame business have been targeted by American law enforcement for forced labor. The law, signed by President Biden in 2021, responds to allegations of forced labor and human rights violations against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, which Beijing resolutely denies. Seventy-five companies have been added to the entity blacklist since June 2022 for involvement in forced labor. Associated Press CNBC  South China Morning Post

Dominican Republic reveals plan to increase deportations as Haiti’s issues worsen.  The Dominican Republic on Wednesday unveiled a plan to bolster border surveillance and control, as well as begin mass deportations of up to 10,000 Haitians per week, targeting those living illegally in the country. This decision follows a surge of Haitian migrants amid the struggles of a U.N.-backed mission in Haiti aimed at combating gang violence. The Dominican government, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, deported over 174,000 people in 2023 and expelled at least 67,000 more in the first half of this year. President Luis Abinader’s administration has faced criticism for alleged human rights violations against Haitians, but he has denied any mistreatment. This announcement comes after Abinader warned at the U.N. General Assembly that "drastic measures" would be taken if the U.N. mission in Haiti fails to counter violence, with 80% of Port-au-Prince under gang control.  Reuters Associated Press Le Monde CNN 

Haitian government’s top brass accused of corruption. Haiti's anti-corruption agency (ULCC) on Wednesday charged five prominent individuals, including three members of an interim governing council, with corruption related to a bribery scandal involving the chairman of a state-owned bank. The council members are accused of abuse of office and bribery, which they deny. A local official and a former bank chairman were also implicated, with investigators seeking the chairman’s extradition from the U.S. The scandal involves an alleged demand for a $770,000 bribe. The U.N. just recently supported efforts to strengthen the Haitian government’s anti-corruption agency. Reuters

Opinion: Russian, Chinese collaboration in the Arctic is a mounting nuclear threat; the U.S. and NATO are just taking notice.The firm alliance between Russia and China is increasingly expanding its dominance into the Arctic, posing new threats to the U.S. and NATO. A recent interception of Russian and Chinese bombers by American forces over Alaska further highlights this growing, strategic partnership. For Moscow, the Arctic is crucial for maintaining its nuclear posture, with plans to use the region as a route for ballistic missile launches. Since 2014, Russia has strengthened its Arctic military presence, leveraging the melting sea ice to commercialize shipping routes while protecting its extensive coastline with advanced defense systems. Beijing, meanwhile, has bolstered the Kremlin’s Arctic ambitions through infrastructure investments and advanced technology like satellites and unmanned vehicles, enhancing Russia's ability to monitor and control the region. The two powers are also collaborating on ice-class vessels to free a year-round Arctic shipping route. This partnership threatens NATO’s limited Arctic infrastructure, exposing vulnerabilities in communications and data systems. And Washington cannot handle the situation alone. However, though the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2024 Arctic strategy calls for greater cooperation with NATO allies, many Arctic nations, including Canada, Norway, and Denmark, are trying to juggle other competing defense priorities. Challenges ranging from the war in Ukraine, to Baltic defense responsibilities and AUKUS obligations make developing a strong NATO presence in the Arctic a complex challenge requiring careful coordination. Politico

EUROPE

In a Cat-and-Mouse Game, Russian Oil Tankers Are Flying New Flags. Russian oil tankers are re-registering under foreign flags, including Gabon, to evade Western sanctions. Gabon’s ship registry has grown rapidly as Russia assembles a "dark fleet" to transport oil to non-Western markets like India and China, circumventing price caps. This tactic helps Russia maintain oil exports while shielding its assets from U.S. and European financial authorities. The vessels involved, often linked to Russian state-controlled companies like Rosneft, operate in a shadowy network that remains difficult to trace and regulate. New York Times

Investigation: Shattering the secrecy of Putin’s top spy chief. The investigation into Sergey Korolev, deputy head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), reveals how he evaded international sanctions through extraordinary secrecy. Despite his high-profile role in Russia's intelligence operations, Korolev’s personal details, such as his birth date and appearance, have been misrepresented. This misinformation, coupled with inconsistent transliterations of his name, led to errors in European Union and Swiss sanctions lists, potentially allowing him to bypass restrictions. The Kyiv Independent's investigation identified Korolev's true appearance, uncovering the use of a false photo in numerous reports. This secrecy has aided Korolev, whose agency has been critical in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Beijing is prepared to deepen ties with Moscow, Chinese leader tells Putin. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday expressed his willingness to expand his country’s cooperation with Russia, in a message to President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders were marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the nations. Xi emphasized the importance of their "good-neighborly friendship," strategic coordination, and “mutually beneficial cooperation.” Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin has sought stronger ties with Beijing amid heavy Western sanctions. Xi underscored the deepening political trust and successful cooperation between the two superpowers in recent years. Xi is also expected to meet Putin at an upcoming BRICS meeting in Russia. Moscow Times 

Russia rejects idea of nuclear talks with U.S. due to its position on NATO expansion. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has eliminated the possibility of nuclear talks with the United States over Washington’s position on NATO expansion. The spokesperson stressed that dialogue is pointless without addressing the Kremlin’s fundamental concerns, particularly the expansion of NATO into former Soviet territories, which Moscow views as a threat to security. Additionally, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will not consider a new treaty to replace the current nuclear arms agreement, which expires in 2026, unless it includes other states and is broadened in scope. Reuters 

Russia supports China on Taiwan, other problems, says Lavrov.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has underlined Russia's alignment with China on Asian issues, particularly in opposing U.S. influence in the region as well as Washington's “deliberate” actions around Taiwan.  Lavrov criticized the U.S. for violating the "One China" policy by strengthening ties with the Taiwanese government, and reaffirmed Russia's support for China's territorial claims over Taipei. He also praised Beijing’s “balanced and consistent” stance on the war in Ukraine and blamed NATO’s expanding influence for the conflict. He called for a new security framework in Eurasia, replacing what he views as a discredited system dominated by the U.S. and NATO. Reuters 

Danish police arrest three for blasts near Israeli embassy.Three men were arrested in Copenhagen on Wednesday for suspected involvement in two explosions that went off near the Israeli Embassy on October 2. The suspects, aged 15 to 20 and all Swedish, likely used hand grenades in the early morning attacks. No injuries were reported. Two men were arrested at Copenhagen's Central Station, while a third was detained elsewhere. Danish police, who said they are not seeking additional suspects, found a bag linked to the men at the station. Security around the embassy has been heightened, and roads in the area were blocked off for investigation. The explosions occurred a day after the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm was hit by gunfire, though no injuries were reported there either. Recent attacks on Israeli diplomatic missions in Europe come amid escalating Middle East tensions following the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and subsequent military actions. New York Times The Guardian Associated Press

MIDDLE EAST

Where U.S. forces are stationed in volatile Middle East amid expanding conflict. The U.S. military’s presence in the Middle East is substantial and increasing due to escalating tensions in the turbulent region. American warships in the eastern Mediterranean, such as an amphibious assault ship and guided-missile destroyers, have been assisting Israel by intercepting Iranian missiles. Additional forces, including three aircraft squadrons, are being deployed. The aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman is en route. In the Red Sea, U.S. forces have been trying to put an end to Houthi attacks on commercial ships. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are stationed in the Gulf of Oman to strengthen Washington’s presence. Approximately 40,000 American troops are spread across military bases in the region, with major deployments in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait. The Pentagon is preparing to send more troops. New York Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

CIA ramps up recruitment of informants to China, Iran, North Korea.  The CIA has launched a new recruitment campaign targeting informants in China, Iran, and North Korea, following its success in recruiting Russians after the invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the agency posted messages in Mandarin, Farsi, and Korean on social media platforms and the dark web, providing instructions on how to securely contact the CIA using encrypted networks like VPNs or the Tor browser. The new drive aims to reach individuals in authoritarian regimes who might provide intelligence. Experts question the effectiveness of this effort, particularly in North Korea, where internet access is limited. However, the CIA remains confident in the initiative, believing that there are discontented individuals within regimes like China's who may be willing to cooperate. The campaign demonstrates how Washington views its security challenges as part of a broader confrontation with a bloc of adversaries, reminiscent of the Cold War era. Chinese officials, meanwhile, dismissed the effort as part of a U.S. disinformation campaign aimed at “driving a wedge” between the Chinese people and the Communist Party. BBC Bloomberg Reuters Japan Times 

Vietnam lambasts China for attack on fishing boat in disputed South China Sea waters.  Vietnam has accused Chinese law enforcement of carrying out a "brutal" attack on a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the hotly disputed South China Sea, resulting in injuries to 10 crew members, including three with broken limbs. The incident took place on Sunday near the Paracel Islands, an archipelago about 250 miles east of central Vietnam, and claimed by both countries. Vietnamese officials allege that Chinese authorities seized four tons of seafood, damaged equipment, and caused losses worth approximately 500 million dong ($20,220). Hanoi said it was “extremely concerned, indignant and resolutely opposes the brutal” actions, demanding that Beijing respect its sovereignty over the Paracel Islands, investigate the incident, and prevent future occurrences. China’s Foreign Ministry, while not directly addressing the incident, stated on Tuesday that Vietnamese vessels had been fishing illegally in Chinese-claimed waters. Bloomberg Reuters

Two Chinese nationals deported from Taiwan for disturbing pro-Hong Kong event.  The Taiwanese government on Thursday announced that it deported two Chinese nationals for harassing a protest organized by Hong Kong exiles in Taipei on China's national day, October 1. The Hong Kong Outlanders group reported that during their protest, which was held in Taipei's Ximen shopping district, they were verbally harassed and physically pushed by Chinese individuals. Police intervened, and two of the Chinese nationals, who were on the island visiting relatives, had their entry permits revoked and were deported. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council emphasized its commitment to taking swift action against any Chinese nationals engaging in illegal behavior that threatens Taipei’s security and stability. This incident is similar to previous attacks on Hong Kong activists in Taiwan, such as the 2019 assault of singer and activist Denise Ho. Reuters Taiwan News 

Hong Kong man, imprisoned for deriding national anthem, abandons sentence appeal.  Chan Pak-yui, a 22-year-old Hong Kong man who was jailed for insulting the Chinese national anthem during a volleyball match last year, has dropped his appeal against his conviction and eight-week sentence. Chan, who was waiting to attend university around the period of his detainment, decided to serve his sentence after consulting with his lawyers. This case was the first to test the 2020 National Anthem Ordinance, which punishes misuse or insults to the Chinese anthem, "March of the Volunteers." Chan was convicted for booing the anthem, giving a thumbs-down gesture, plugging his ears, and chanting a protest song during the volleyball match. The offense carries a maximum penalty of three years' imprisonment. South China Morning Post 

‘Extremely regrettable:’ Japan condemns Russia’s denial of alleged airspace violation.  Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi on Thursday expressed deep regret over Russia's denial of an alleged airspace intrusion near Hokkaido in late September. Moscow claimed that its IL-38 patrol plane did not breach Japanese airspace, with a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejecting Tokyo’s diplomatic protest. Japan alleged that the Russian aircraft intruded its airspace near Rebun Island three times, each violation lasting 30 seconds to a minute. This prompted the Japanese air defense forces to fire a signal flare. Relations between the two nations have deteriorated since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, with Japan imposing sanctions alongside other nations. In August, Tokyo also reported its first violation by a Chinese military spy plane over the East China Sea. South China Morning Post

AFRICA

Two Beninese men, friends of the president, are imprisoned for suspected coup plot.Two men close to Benin's president, Patrice Talon, were arrested last week on charges of planning a coup. Businessman Olivier Boko, a longtime friend of Talon, and former sports minister Oswald Homeky face accusations of  bribery, money laundering, and conspiring against state security. Homeky was caught allegedly handing over money to the head of the Republican Guard as part of the coup plot. Boko, who was considered Talon's "right-hand man" and a potential 2026 presidential candidate, is believed to have orchestrated the plot. Both men are now in pre-trial detention. Despite Benin's reputation as a stable democracy, Talon has been accused of using the justice system to target political rivals since taking office in 2016. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Oracle announces $6.5 billion financing for Malaysian cloud, AI operations. Oracle Corporation has committed to invest over $6.5 billion in development of cloud and AI infrastructure in Malaysia.  According to a company statement, the investment will provide AI infrastructure and services access to Malaysian businesses and allow them to place mission-critical workloads in Oracle cloud infrastructure.  Malaysian investment minister Tengku Zafrul Asiz said the Oracle decision reflects the country’s potential as a leading destination in Southeast Asia for digital investments.  He noted that the Malaysian government intends to create 3,000 smart factories by 2030.  Oracle’s planned Malaysian financing would expand the company’s Asia-Pacific footprint to 12 public cloud regions.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced Tuesday at a groundbreaking event for a Google $2 billion data center that the country is creating a national office to coordinate all AI-related initiatives.  Wall Street Journal

Microsoft plans $4.8 billion investment in Italian AI, data center facilities.  Microsoft plans a $4.8 billion investment in its data center and AI infrastructure in Italy over the next two years.  The planned outlay would make ItalyNorth one of Microsoft’s largest data centers in Europe, covering data operations for the Mediterranean and North Africa.  The office of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the country welcomes the investment as a strengthening of Italy’s digital presence in the region.  Last month Microsoft and the Blackrock investment firm announced the creation of a $30 billion fund for financing AI-focused centers and energy resources, beginning in the U.S. and expanding to U.S. partner countries.  Reuters

Global chip firms monitoring hurricane impact on North Carolina quartz mines. Semiconductor manufacturers worldwide are monitoring the impact of Hurricane Helene on the mining of high-purity quartz at two leading North Carolina mines.  The North Carolina firms, Sibelco and Quartz Co., suspended operations last week and could not yet project when mining operations will resume.  The two companies account for more than 80 percent of global production of commercial high-purity quartz, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing.  Several large semiconductor firms, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. – the world’s largest – said they do not expect significant impacts on their operations as a result of the mine closures.  A spokesperson for Sibelco, a Belgian firm, reported that the company has “confirmed the safety of most employees and is working diligently to contact those still unreachable due to ongoing power outages and communication challenges.”  Semiconductor sector analyst Dan Hutcheson said the industry normally is able to withstand impacts from natural disasters on the supply chain, adding ,“it typically works its way out, and if you look at it on a year-over-year basis, you won’t see the impact.”  Bloomberg Washington Post

Further details on law enforcement arrests, server seizures against LockBit.  Ransomware infrastructure operated by the LockBit gang was impacted by law enforcement operations that resulted in multiple arrests and the seizure of “critical servers.”  Nine servers described as part of LockBit’s critical infrastructure were confiscated by Spanish police in the third phase of Operation Cronos, a joint counter-ransomware initiative involving the U.S., Europol, and a dozen EU countries.  Europol said Tuesday’s arrests and seizures continued the string of law enforcement actions against LockBit administrators and infrastructure that began last February.  The latest phase of Operation Cronos resulted in the arrests of a suspected LockBit developer in France, two individuals charged in Britain with supporting a LockBit affiliate, and an administrator of the Bulletproof hosting service in Spain.  In addition, sanctions were issued against another Aleksandr Ryzhenkov, who the U.K.’s National Crime Agency identified as "a prolific affiliate of LockBit and strongly linked to Evil Corp,” the Kremlin-backed cybercriminal group.  Cybercrime divisions from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Romania, Britain, and the U.S. were joined by the European Union Agency for Criminal Justice Cooperation (Eurojust) in the latest law enforcement actions.  Cybernews CyberScoop

Symantec reports North Korean hacking attack on three private U.S. organizations.  Symantec researchers report they have uncovered evidence that the North Korean hacking group, APT45 (aka Stonefly), mounted attacks against three U.S. organizations after a Justice Department indictment of a group member.  According to Symantec, hackers were not successful in deploying malware in the most recent attempts, which appear to be financially motivated.  All the targets, Symantec reported, were private sector firms with no direct intelligence connection.  Custom malware used in the attacks supports the linkage to APT45, which employed “a fake Tableau certificate documented by Microsoft in addition to two other certificates that appear to be unique to this campaign.”  Researchers said APT45’s “capabilities have grown markedly” with a focus on espionage operations against “high-value targets.”   They went on to note that while financial motivations drive other North Korean groups seeking to raise foreign currency for the Pyongyang government, Stonefly had until recent years appeared not to be involved in financially motivated attacks.”  The Record

Pentagon stresses counter-drone capabilities in proposed Replicator 2.0 program.  The second phase of the Replicator drone initiative will focus on counter-drone capabilities in a proposal for funding in the fiscal 2026 budget request.  A memo from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed his expectation “that Replicator 2 will assist with overcoming challenges we face in the areas of production capacity, technology innovation, authorities, policies, open system architecture and system integration, and force structure.”  Observers note that it will be up to the next administration to decide whether to pursue FY26 funding for Replicator 2.0.  The first iteration of the initiative resulted in the selection or purchase of two tranches of small drones for both aerial and maritime missions.  Austin’s memo specified that the “Replicator 2 Initiative will leverage the work of the Counter Uncrewed Systems Warfighter Senior Integration Group, and collaborate closely with other ongoing efforts.”  The vulnerability of U.S. bases and outposts to aerial drone attacks has been a key motivation for focusing on counter-drone systems.  Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo, commenting on options for off-the-shelf and developed drone capabilities, said that Army proposals for Replicator 2.0 will emphasize “defense of fixed sites” at domestic and overseas U.S. facilities.  BreakingDefense

Defense stocks hit record highs as Middle East tensions worsen.  Aerospace and defense stocks rose to record values on Tuesday amid increasing tensions in the Middle East.  Wall Street reportedly views escalating conflict involving Israel, Lebanon, and Iran – and various proxy forces – as potentially leading to expanding contracts for military vendors.  Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrup Grumman, and L3Harris all registered gains over 2.6 percent.  Lockheed Martin and RTX reached all-time highs on Tuesday while share prices for L3Harris and Northrup Grumman rose to their highest levels since 2022.  Forbes reports that the BlackRock managed iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund rose 1.2 percent, extending its 12-month gain to 43 percent.  Even as defense stocks rallied, the broader market faltered, with the S&P falling 0.8 percent, edging toward its worst loss since Sept. 6.  Forbes

Netherlands says a ‘state actor’ behind major hack of Dutch police details.  The Dutch justice minister on Wednesday revealed that a state actor was most likely the mastermind behind a recent hack that exposed the contact details of nearly all 65,000 police officers in the Netherlands. The stolen data included names, emails, phone numbers, and some personal information, engendering widespread concern among police personnel. The minister did not specify which country was responsible, but stressed that the incident is being taken very seriously, with efforts underway to protect the affected officers. Dutch intelligence and security services are investigating the cyberattack, though no further details have been divulged. This hacking comes in the wake of previous instances of cyberattacks involving state actors, including alleged attempts by China and Russia. South China Morning Post 

As dockworker strike starts third day, the queue for ships U.S. ports grow. A major strike by 45,000 American dockworkers, the largest in nearly 50 years, entered its third day on October 3, causing long queues of container ships at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. As of Wednesday, at least 45 vessels were anchored outside affected ports, up from just three before the strike began. The strike, organized by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), follows a breakdown in negotiations for a new six-year contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). No new negotiations are currently scheduled, though the USMX signaled openness to further talks. The strike has disrupted supply chains, and could potentially lead to shortages of goods like food and auto parts. Economists suggest that while the strike won't immediately affect consumer prices, a prolonged stoppage could increase food costs. Reuters Seatrade Maritime News

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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