Report for Thursday, October 17, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Israel launches air strikes near Beirut over U.S. objections

Zelensky rules out ceding territory in ‘victory plan’ dismissed by Kremlin

Ukraine Says North Korean Role in Russia’s War Is Growing

Inside a secretive Ukrainian drone unit targeting Russian territory

Trudeau says India made "horrific mistake" by allegedly interfering in Canada’s sovereignty

Russia suspected of planting device on plane that caused UK warehouse fire

CISA warns of ‘brute force’ cyberattacks by Iranian hackers on critical infrastructure sector

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Behind the U.S. Letter — and Ultimatum — to Israel.  The CIpher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli airstrike hits south Lebanon municipal building, kills mayor and five others.   An Israeli airstrike destroyed the municipal headquarters in Nabatieh, a provincial capital in south Lebanon Wednesday, killing 16 people including the mayor, and wounding more than 50. It was Israel’s worst attack on a Lebanese state building since the Israeli air campaign started.  Lebanese officials denounced the attack as proof that Israel was now  targeting the Lebanese state. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused Israel of targeting the municipal council meeting to discuss aid for people displaced by the Israeli conflict.  The U.N. mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said its peacekeepers observed an Israeli tank firing at their watchtower near southern Lebanon's Kfar Kela Wednesday morning.  Israel has called on the United Nations to the UNIFIL peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon out of the combat zone. UNIFIL says its troops have come under Israeli attack several times. Israel has disputed accounts of those incidents.  Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, in northern Israel near the border, said Israel would not stop its attack to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah. "Hezbollah is in great distress," he said in a statement. "We will hold negotiations only under fire. I said this on day one, I said it in Gaza and I am saying it here."  Reuters  Reuters  New York Times  AFP

Israel launches air strikes near Beirut over U.S. objections. Israeli airstrikes hit the Dahiyeh neighborhood south of Beirut Wednesday, targeting a Hezbollah underground  weapon storage cache. The Israeli military said it warned residents to evacuate.  The strikes were the first Israeli attacks near the Lebanese capital in five days, and they ignored a U.S. plea to Israel not to strike Beirut due to the “civilian toll.” Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said his government received “a sort of guarantee” from the Biden administration that Israel would scale back strikes on Beirut. New York Times 

Treasury goes after Hezbollah money men. The Treasury Department sanctioned three individuals and four companies for helping generate “millions of dollars in revenue” for Hezbollah. The targets allegedly facilitated oil deals, food imports, dairy production and other commercial enterprises that fund Hezbollah operations. The Treasury also blacklisted three people involved in the production and illegal trade of the illicit amphetamine captagon, a source of money for Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and Hezbollah. Treasury Department  The Hill

Israel strikes Syrian port city of Latakia, blaze starts up. An Israeli airstrike targeted the Syrian port city of Latakia early Thursday, causing fires and injuring two people, according to Syrian state media (SANA). Private properties were also damaged. Syrian air defenses reportedly confronted the Israeli targets. Firefighters were working to control the blazes caused by the strike. Reuters Times of Israel 

Palestinian civilians, including teen, burned to death in a Gaza hospital compound after Israeli strikes.The devastated family of a young Palestinian computing student named Shaban al-Dalou have recounted the tragic moment in which they witnessed him burning to death following an Israeli strike on a Gaza hospital compound. Israel claimed the attack on the al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah targeted a Hamas command center, and stated that the blaze, which killed 19-year-old Shaban, his mother, and two others, was likely caused by secondary explosions. Hamas denied that militants were present. Shaban’s 17-year-old brother said, “I saw my brother burning in front of me and my mother was burning.” The father, who was severely burned in the fire, told Al Jazeera that he could only rescue two of his children before flames “just engulfed everything.” Footage of the Monday incident, filmed by witnesses on mobile phones, has drawn global attention and condemnation. The U.S. State Department called the event "horrific." Israel said it is investigating the cause of the fire, which it attributes to possible explosions from nearby cooking gas canisters. The Israeli military underscored its efforts to avoid civilian harm during its operations. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24 The Guardian  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Says North Korean Role in Russia’s War Is Growing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that North Korea is playing a growing role in aiding Russia's war against Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence reported that Pyongyang had sent military personnel, including 400 engineers, to support Russian troops and bolster munitions operations. North Korean workers are also replacing Russians killed in the war, with an estimated 10,000 troops reportedly sent to Russia. Zelensky denounced this as the involvement of a second state in the war. Meanwhile, the U.S. and South Korea are investigating these claims as concerns rise over violations of United Nations sanctions on military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Wall Street Journal PoliticoEU The National Interest

For North Korea, War in Ukraine Is a Coveted Chance for Military Practice. For North Korea, aiding Russia in Ukraine provides an opportunity to test its new weapons and gain valuable battlefield experience, which it hasn’t had since the Korean War. Analysts suggest North Korean military engineers and advisors are helping operate weapons, collect data, and observe defects, which could enhance their missile programs and assist future arms sales. This participation allows North Korea to study modern warfare, including drone usage, and prepare for potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea may also receive Russian technological support for its nuclear and space programs. New York Times

Zelensky rules out ceding territory in ‘victory plan’ dismissed by Kremlin. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-point “victory plan” rejects any territorial concessions to Russia. He calls for increased Western support, including the lifting of restrictions on long-range weapons and an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. Zelensky warned of growing support for Russia from North Korea, Iran, and China, referring to them as a “coalition of criminals.” Zelensky acknowledged that Western partners are ramping up pressure to negotiate with Russia, hinting that such talks may not favor Kyiv. Zelensky told the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, that in “non-public communication with Ukraine,” partners are increasingly mentioning “negotiations” and much less frequently using the word “justice,” he said. The Kremlin dismissed Ukraine’s plan as unrealistic, with Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova accusing Zelensky of pushing NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Moscow reiterated that Ukraine must relinquish territories as a precondition for peace talks. France24 Reuters PresidentGovUA Associated Press

Zelensky pitches victory plan to EU, seeks NATO invitation and military support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Brussels on Thursday to pitch his "victory plan" to the European Union and NATO. He seeks a NATO membership invitation and increased military support for Ukraine's defense against Russia. His plan includes requests that allies have so far been hesitant to approve, such as using Western weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory and an invitation to join NATO. While NATO has committed to Ukraine's future membership, the alliance has not specified a timeline. Zelensky is pressing for action amid Russian advances in the east, looming power cuts, and uncertainty over future Western support. Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Ukraine seeks global help with massive task of landmine clearance at Swiss meeting. On Thursday in Lausanne, Switzerland, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal appealed for increased international support to clear landmines and unexploded bombs, which cover up to a quarter of Ukraine. Speaking at a conference attended by officials from 50 countries, Shmyhal emphasized the urgency of demining to boost agricultural production and enable the return of displaced citizens. With 399 civilians killed and 915 injured by landmines, Ukraine aims to demine the country by 2033 but needs assistance, especially in training 10,000 deminers and producing advanced demining machines. Switzerland and the U.S. pledged further support with new technologies, including AI-powered drones, showcased at the event. Reuters

NATO shows no sign of letting Ukraine join soon. Despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s push for Kyiv’s inclusion under the alliance’s security umbrella, NATO shows no sign of accelerating Ukraine's membership. Zelensky’s "victory plan" includes a request to fast-track Ukraine’s application amid the war with Russia, but NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte only acknowledged the plan without commitment. NATO's Article 5, a mutual defense clause, does not apply to non-member Ukraine, and concerns persist among key members like the U.S. and Germany about escalating the conflict with nuclear-armed Russia. NATO’s focus is on helping Ukraine reclaim its territory from Russia. Associated Press PoliticoEU

NATO does not have plans to invite Ukraine into alliance 'in the short term,' US ambassador says. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said Wednesday that NATO does not plan to invite Ukraine into the alliance "in the short term." Speaking ahead of Thursday’s NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, Smith reaffirmed that while Ukraine is on an "irreversible path" to membership, discussions are not at the stage of issuing an invitation. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-point victory plan prioritizes NATO membership, which is expected only after the war with Russia ends. Kyiv Independent

Getting out of 'protracted' war with Russia 'almost impossible,' Zaluzhnyi says. In a speech at Chatham House on Thursday, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief, said that escaping a "protracted" war with Russia seems nearly impossible. He explained that Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive did not achieve "significant success" due to insufficient Western military support. This contrasts with President Volodymyr Zelensky's more optimistic public outlook. Zelensky fired Zaluzhnyi earlier this year and made him Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. Zaluzhnyi warned that the war is shifting to a "positional" stage of static, attritional fighting, which could allow Russia to restore its military. Ukrainian forces face increasing pressure in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian advances continue. Kyiv Independent

U.S. Shifts Ukraine’s F-16 Training to Focus on Younger Pilots. The U.S. has shifted its focus on training Ukrainian F-16 pilots to younger cadets, extending the timeline for Ukraine to have a full squadron of the aircraft ready for combat. This change is due to a shortage of experienced pilots with adequate English skills. U.S. officials believe younger cadets may be more adaptable to Western-style training. The training process, already accelerated due to Ukraine’s urgent needs, has faced setbacks, including the August crash of a Ukrainian F-16 pilot. While veteran pilots typically transition faster, new cadets require extensive training, which could delay Ukraine's air defense capabilities. U.S. and international partners are expanding the program, training pilots in locations across the U.S., U.K., France, and Romania. Ukrainian officials emphasize the need for rapid training to counter Russian aerial attacks. Wall Street Journal

Defense minister confident Ukraine can replenish troops. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Wednesday that Ukraine urgently needs more weapons and equipment from allies. Umerov said Ukraine has sufficient troops, bolstered by a new mobilization law. He said that Ukraine’s soldiers are willing to defend their land but need proper training and modern equipment. He said the primary challenge is acquiring advanced Western air defense systems and long-range strike capabilities. Ukrainians remain committed to the fight, the defense minister said. Fox News

Ukraine's steelmakers fret as Russians advance toward a key coal mine. As Russian forces advance toward the strategic town of Pokrovsk, they threaten Ukraine’s only domestic coking coal mine, essential for steel production. The mine fuels the country’s steel industry, which generated nearly $2 billion in exports in the first eight months of 2024. According to industry leaders, the loss of this mine could reduce Ukraine's steel output from a projected 10 million tons to just 2-3 million tons. Steelmakers would need to rely on costly imports from the U.S. or South Africa, reducing Ukraine's global steel competitiveness. Reuters

Russia is using generative AI to ramp up disinformation. Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Anton Demokhin said that Russia is increasingly using generative AI to amplify disinformation campaigns against Ukraine, making them harder to detect and more credible. Speaking at a cyber conference in Singapore on Wednesday, Demokhin noted the global threat posed by these advanced tactics, which Russia is employing alongside cyberattacks on Ukraine’s supply chains and critical infrastructure. He also highlighted Ukraine’s collaboration with the International Criminal Court to investigate Russian cyberattacks as potential war crimes. Reuters

Ukraine attacked by over 130 Russian drones in latest strike.Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks on Ukraine in recent months early Wednesday, deploying 136 drones targeting Kyiv and other cities. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 68 of the drones, but two hit unidentified targets, and a large fire broke out at an industrial facility in the Ternopil region, which was later extinguished without injuries. The attack caused extended air alerts and power outages in southern regions, affecting hundreds of thousands. The scale of the assault highlights the intensity of Russian efforts to disrupt Ukraine’s infrastructure as winter approaches. Reuters

Ukraine requests monitoring mission at Odesa ports amid Russian strikes. Ukraine on Wednesday requested the International Maritime Organization to deploy a monitoring mission to its Odesa ports due to escalating Russian missile strikes. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha emphasized the threat these attacks pose to global food security, as Ukraine, a major grain exporter, relies on its Black Sea ports for 85% of food exports. Since Oct. 6, four foreign-flagged civilian vessels have been damaged. Russia has conducted nearly 60 attacks on ports in the past three months, damaging 300 infrastructure facilities and 22 vessels, driving up insurance costs and disrupting shipments. Reuters

Russia attacks energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Mykolaiv region overnight, governor says. Russian forces attacked energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv overnight, launching 56 drones and one missile, regional governor Vitaliy Kim said on Thursday. While no casualties were reported, power was disrupted in parts of the region. The Ukrainian air force reported five hits to infrastructure near the front line and shot down 22 drones. A fire broke out at an administrative building in Sumy after a drone strike. Ukraine seeks more air defense ahead of winter. Reuters

Slovak PM Fico sees a high probability of Ukraine war ending soon, news agency reports. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sees a high probability of the war in Ukraine ending soon, news agency TASR quoted him as saying on Wednesday before his departure to a European Union summit to which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited. Fico said: "The probability of the war in Ukraine ending is high in the short term. I expect some hint tomorrow because suddenly the topic of an invitation for Ukraine to NATO is appearing.”  Reuters

Biden announces $425 million security aid package for Ukraine. During a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Joe Biden announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday. The package includes air defense systems, munitions, and armored vehicles. Zelensky expressed gratitude and discussed Ukraine's five-point victory plan, emphasizing military support and joint weapons production. Biden pledged U.S. support and plans to hold a virtual meeting with the Ramstein group in November to coordinate international military assistance for Ukraine. The Hill Reuters Readout of Biden-Zelensky call

Ramstein meeting rescheduled for November in virtual format, White House says. The White House rescheduled the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting to November, following the recent cancellation of U.S. President Joe Biden's trip due to hurricanes. The decision was announced after Biden's Wednesday call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, where they discussed $425 million in new security aid for Ukraine. Initially planned for Oct. 12 in Germany, the leader-level meeting will now be held virtually. Zelensky was expected to present his five-point victory plan, which includes NATO membership, defense, economic growth, and post-war security. The group, consisting of over 50 countries, last convened on Sept. 6 at Ramstein Air Base. Kyiv Independent

Inside a secretive Ukrainian drone unit targeting Russian territory. Ukraine’s elite long-range drone unit, part of its defense intelligence (GUR), has conducted over 500 drone strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting military assets. CNN gained exclusive access to the unit as it launched a mission to destroy an ammunition depot in Kotluban, containing Iranian missiles delivered to Russia. These drone operations highlight Ukraine’s evolving air warfare capabilities, essential in offsetting Russian advantages in traditional warfare. While Russian air defenses often counter these attacks, successful missions like this one are crucial in degrading Russia's military infrastructure and maintaining pressure far beyond the frontlines. CNN

Australia pledges to support Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes.’ Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles announced a new $245 million aid package to Ukraine, including 49 surplus  M1A1 Abrams tanks, enhancing Ukraine’s mobile firepower. Marles emphasized Australia’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine, stating on Thursday, “This will not be the last package that we provide to Ukraine … and we’ll stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes for Ukraine to resolve its conflicts on its own terms.” The M1A1 Abrams is a key asset in U.S. and Australian tank forces. The U.S. sent 31 Abrams tanks last year. The 47th Mechanized Brigade, the Ukrainian army’s sole user of American-made M-1s, is running out of tanks. It lost eight in battle, and another eight were damaged. After more than a year in combat, the 2,000-person unit finally rotated most of its battalions off the front line in eastern Ukraine last month. The 69-ton, four-person M-1A1s equipped the Australian army’s armored brigade until that brigade upgraded to newer M-1A2s this year. NewsComAU Business Insider Forbes

Ukraine is adding cages to another NATO tank type to shield its armored vehicles. Ukraine has begun installing cage armor on German-made Leopard tanks to protect them from Russian munitions, including rockets and drones. Built by billionaire Rinat Akhmetov’s Steel Front initiative, these steel screens cost $20,000 each and take about 12 hours to install. The added armor increases tank survivability by 30-40%, helping to shield the crew and allow damaged tanks to be recovered for repairs. This effort highlights the growing role of drones. Ukraine and Russia have suffered losses of armored vehicles to explosive-laden drones. Business Insider

Ukraine war shows US soldiers they must be hard to find in the electromagnetic spectrum. If you can be seen, you can be hit. The U.S. Army recently conducted training in Hawaii, focusing on lessons from Ukraine's war, particularly the challenge of remaining undetected in the electromagnetic spectrum. Soldiers practiced reducing their visibility to enemy sensors. Maj. Gen. Marcus Evans highlighted the importance of being "small and undetectable" to protect forces from attacks. With over 10,000 troops participating, the training aimed to prepare for combat in the Indo-Pacific. The US military is coming to terms with the growing importance of electronic warfare. It is also grappling with the expanding sensor threat and the realization that individual soldier, vehicle, and device emissions can be detected. As chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, US Army Gen. Mark Milley said, "Being nearly invisible will be fundamental to survival on a future battlefield." Business Insider

High-ranking GRU officer shot dead in Moscow Oblast, Russian media reports. Nikita Klenkov, a deputy commander of a Russian military intelligence unit (GRU), was shot dead in Moscow Oblast on Wednesday, Russian media reported. Klenkov, 44, was allegedly killed by an unknown assailant who fired eight shots from a car in Melenki, east of Moscow. Klenkov had recently returned from Ukraine’s front line. While an investigation is ongoing, it is unclear if the attack was politically motivated. This follows a July incident in which another GRU officer was injured in a car bomb attack, with Ukraine denying involvement in both cases. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russian ships ineffective for missile strikes, used to distract Ukraine's defenses, Navy says. Russian warships have become ineffective for missile strikes and are now primarily used to distract Ukraine's air defenses during mass missile attacks, Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said Thursday. Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russian naval assets, leading to approximately 30% of the Black Sea Fleet being lost or disabled. Russia has relocated many of its naval forces from Crimea to Novorossiysk. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s southern forces release footage of strike on Russian training center. Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces struck a Russian military training center on Oct. 15, sharing footage of the attack. About 20 Russian soldiers were present at the time, though details about casualties, the exact location, and the weaponry used were not provided. The video shows multiple explosions, resembling the effects of cluster munitions, which the U.S. has supplied to Ukraine. Hostilities in Ukraine's southern regions, including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, have recently intensified. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Oct. 16. President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a five-part “victory plan” to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, on Wednesday. The plan aims to end the war by 2025 and pledges to defend NATO’s eastern flank after the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy focuses on prolonging the war, betting on weakening Western support for Ukraine. Imprisoned nationalist Igor Girkin questioned the Kremlin’s strategy, warning that 2024-2025 will test Russia's ability to sustain the war. Girkin noted that Russia’s 2024 offensive failed to meet its objectives before the muddy season. South Korea is monitoring reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Kreminna, near Siversk, and near Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: I won the Nobel Peace Prize. Now I'm asking the US to send missiles to Ukraine. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner and head of the Center for Civil Liberties, argues that global freedom and human rights are under siege by authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. She calls on the U.S. to provide Ukraine with more weapons to resist Russia's invasion, emphasizing that legal documents like the Geneva Conventions cannot stop Russian tanks or atrocities. Matviichuk highlights that only 20% of the global population enjoys full political and civil rights, warning that a Russian victory would embolden autocracies worldwide. She stresses the need for democracies to defend freedom before it is lost entirely. USA Today

Opinion: We’re Winning, Say Russia’s Fake News Manufacturers. Olga Lautman reveals how Russia’s Social Design Agency (SDA) has been behind millions of fabricated social media comments aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine and bolstering far-right movements in Europe. Leaked documents expose SDA’s efforts to manipulate public opinion through disinformation and political subversion. Russia’s tactics include spreading fake news and exploiting societal divisions, with a focus on dissuading support for Ukraine and destabilizing democracies. Countering Russian disinformation campaigns is critical to preserving the resilience of Western democracies. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

'End of an era': Biden heads for a farewell trip to Germany. Here's what to know. President Joe Biden is in Germany today, marking what some see as the "end of an era" as he prepares for a farewell visit amidst escalating global tensions. Initially scheduled for last week but postponed due to Hurricane Milton, Biden’s trip now focuses on critical meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Discussions will center on Ukraine and the Middle East, as Biden emphasizes the need for continued U.S. support for Ukraine. However, concerns loom over Europe’s future responsibility in supporting Ukraine as Biden exits the global stage, especially with domestic and international pressures mounting on Scholz. Germany faces growing calls from opposition parties to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin and questions about hosting U.S. missiles starting in 2026. With the U.S. presidential election nearing, European anxiety is high, particularly over the possibility of Donald Trump's return and its potential impact on NATO and trans-Atlantic relations. National Public Radio

U.S. Army navigation drill to incorporate new sensors. The U.S. Army’s annual Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Assessment Exercise (PNTAX) will expand its scope in the coming years, according to the Army's new All-Domain Sensing Cross Functional Team (CFT) leader. The newly established All-Domain Sensing CFT focuses on creating sensor architectures to understand battlefield dynamics and process vast amounts of data. It evolved from the former Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing/Space CFT, broadening its mission to deep-sensing capabilities. While details of how PNTAX will evolve are still under wraps, the exercise will increasingly integrate resilient architectures from space to ground and incorporate more human-machine collaboration, including robots and unmanned systems. PNTAX will also be integrated into other Army experiments and activities. The latest PNTAX event had over 600 participants, including joint partners and all Five Eyes nations, and assessed more than 150 technologies. Defense News 

U.S. Army to choose robotic combat vehicle vendor next spring. The U.S. Army plans to select one vendor by spring 2024 from four companies—McQ, Textron Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems, and Oshkosh Defense—to build the base platform for its Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV). Each vendor delivered prototypes in August 2023, and the Army will choose a winner to develop additional prototypes with new requirements. The RCV will be paired with the Armored Multipurpose Vehicle (AMPV) as the control vehicle, chosen for its compatibility with armored brigades. The first fielding of RCVs is expected in 2028, requiring the AMPV to be contracted by 2025 for integration. While the prototyping for the base platform and control vehicle is progressing smoothly, the Army is facing challenges in developing off-road autonomy software. Further evaluations are planned to refine the software. Despite challenges with power, range, and decision-making at a distance, robots have proven beneficial in reconnaissance and security roles during training exercises. Defense News 

Trudeau says India made "horrific mistake" by allegedly interfering in Canada’s safety, sovereignty. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke out strongly against India on Wednesday, accusing the country of committing a “horrific mistake” by “aggressively” violating Canada's sovereignty with alleged involvement in the murder of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Trudeau claimed that India’s refusal to cooperate resulted in the escalation of tensions, which led to the mutual expulsions of diplomats. Despite the Canadian leader’s efforts to preserve relations, he said intelligence suggests that New Delhi was involved in Nijjar's killing and other violent acts targeting Sikh dissidents in Canada, which India has dismissed as baseless. The row has strained relations, with Ottawa expelling six senior Indian diplomats, and India retaliating similarly. Trudeau also stated that New Delhi had ignored opportunities to de-escalate the situation, and accused opposition Conservative politicians of being linked to foreign interference. The Guardian Reuters Al Jazeera  

U.S. sentences Mexican ex-drug official to more than 38 years in prison over cartel bribes.  Mexican former security official Genaro Garcia Luna was sentenced to over 38 years in prison in the U.S. for secretly aiding the Sinaloa cartel while leading Mexico’s war on drugs. Garcia Luna, who once served as his nation’s Minister of Public Security, was convicted of taking millions in bribes and enabling the cartel to transport over a million kilos of cocaine into the U.S. During his trial, cartel members testified about their illicit relationship with him. Even after his conviction, Garcia Luna tried to bribe inmates to create false evidence. While Garcia Luna maintained his innocence, the judge described him as a "major facilitator" for drug trafficking, and prosecutors argued that his actions allowed the notoriously violent Sinaloa cartel to thrive. He had helped to thwart police operations to detain cartel leaders, and even notified traffickers in advance about raids. Despite his prior awards and commendations from international agencies, the judge stressed that his good deeds were a facade for his corrupt activities. Garcia Luna was sentenced to 460 months in prison and fined $2 million. Bloomberg Associated Press Reuters 

EUROPE

Russia suspected of planting device on plane that caused UK warehouse fire. British counter-terrorism police are investigating whether Russian spies planted an incendiary device on a plane bound for the UK, which later caught fire at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham. The July 22 incident is part of a suspected wider Russian campaign of sabotage across Europe, with similar events, such as a DHL facility fire in Leipzig, Germany. Investigators fear the devices could have caused catastrophic mid-air explosions. Russian intelligence, accused of reckless operations by UK and European officials, appears to be targeting Western countries backing Ukraine. This campaign has prompted tighter security coordination across Europe, further isolating Russia internationally. Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, warned last week that Russia’s GRU military intelligence appeared to be on “a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets: we’ve seen arson, sabotage and more.” The most serious plot uncovered was an attempt to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of the German arms maker Rheinmetall. The Guardian

EU, Gulf states seek give and take on Ukraine, Middle East. At the inaugural European Union-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Brussels on Wednesday, leaders discussed pressing geopolitical issues. The EU pushed for stronger condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while GCC states advocated for harsher criticism of Israel regarding its actions in Gaza and the West Bank. Ultimately, leaders compromised by simply lifting the language from a 2022 United Nations General Assembly resolution in which they "deplore in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine." But Gulf leaders expressed disappointment over the tone on Israel. The joint declaration calls for ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon and condemns "the Israeli government's decisions to further expand settlements and legalize settler outposts across the occupied West Bank." The summit also addressed trade, travel, and energy cooperation, with both sides agreeing to work on visa liberalization and deepening energy ties amid Europe’s search for new suppliers. Deutsche Welle

Moscow Roils a Country on the Edge of Europe and Russia. Moldova will hold a crucial presidential election and referendum on Sunday to amend its constitution and enshrine European Union membership as a "strategic objective." Moldovan officials accuse Russia of launching a disinformation campaign, including anti-EU posters and fake social media content, to sway public opinion against the referendum. The incumbent pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, is expected to win re-election, but the referendum's outcome remains uncertain amid Russian efforts to undermine Moldova's EU ambitions. New York Times

Infighting on migration as EU leaders meet in Brussels. Ahead of Thursday’s European Union summit in Brussels, leaders face divisions on migration policy. Some member states push for strict deportation measures and offshoring migrants, while others advocate for urgent enforcement of the existing asylum pact. Migration remains a contentious issue, with Poland and Germany already implementing stricter border controls. The summit will also focus on pledging continued support for Ukraine, despite uncertainties around the upcoming U.S. elections, with plans to raise €35 billion in loans using frozen Russian assets. Leaders will also address the escalating Middle East crisis, with calls for de-escalation in Lebanon and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. EUObserver

A ‘fatal mistake:’ Polish leader condemns planned suspension of the right to asylum. Polish President Andrzej Duda on Wednesday condemned the government's plan to suspend the right to asylum for irregular migrants, calling it a “fatal mistake.” Duda argued that the plan, which needs his approval to take effect, would block safe haven for dissidents from Russia and Belarus. Prime Minister Donald Tusk defended the plan, stating it wouldn't apply to dissidents and aims to protect Poland's and the European Union’s eastern border from migration pressure allegedly orchestrated by Russia and Belarus. The plan, part of a broader EU migration debate, faces opposition from human rights groups and some government ministers. Associated Press 

Switzerland declines to adopt EU’s Russia sanctions on subsidiaries.Switzerland’s Federal Council has opted not to fully adopt the latest E.U. sanctions against Russia, citing that its existing laws already allow it to prosecute subsidiaries of companies involved in sanctions violations. The E.U.’s 14th sanctions package imposes an obligation on businesses to prevent their subsidiaries from bypassing sanctions, but Switzerland argues that it already has mechanisms in place to address this issue and is actively investigating such cases. However, the Social Democrats, the nation’s second-largest political party, criticized the decision, calling it a step backwards and accusing the government of prioritizing corporate interests over solidarity with Ukraine and international peace. Bloomberg 

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. B-2 stealth bombers carry out precision strikes in Yemen, target subterranean Houthi weapons storage sites.U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that American forces conducted airstrikes in Yemen on Wednesday night, targeting five underground weapons storage facilities used by the Iran-backed Houthi group. The strikes, which were authorized by President Biden and carried out by B-2 stealth bombers, aimed to weaken the Houthis' ability to carry out attacks on military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This marks the first time B-2 bombers were used in attacks against the Houthis, demonstrating Washington’s capability to strike deeply buried targets now matter how “hardened or fortified.” US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that both U.S. Air Force and Navy assets participated in the strikes. CENTCOM did not report any civilian casualties, but said it was carrying out battle damage assessments. These latest strikes were intended to degrade the Houthis' arsenal of advanced conventional weapons, particularly in light of their ongoing attacks and their staunch support for Hamas and Hezbollah. U.S. military presence in the region remains strong due to increasing tensions, particularly with the ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. CNN Bloomberg Reuters Al Jazeera U.S. Department of Defense The Guardian Axios  

Opinion: Saudi Arabia and Iran are becoming unlikely friends as Middle East ignites. In this opinion piece, Javier Blas argues that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are shifting towards adopting a neutral stance between Israel and Iran, breaking from their past custom of covertly supporting Israel against Iran. This change reflects a combination of diplomatic efforts, as well as the need to protect their interests, particularly in avoiding involvement in escalating conflicts. Recent gatherings between Saudi and Iranian officials, including a notable visit from Iran’s foreign minister to Riyadh for a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signal a détente between the two nations, with a focus on reducing regional tensions. This shift is part of broader trends, including Saudi frustration with the U.S. and Israel, and a re-evaluation of its security priorities following the 2019 attack on its oil facilities by Iranian-backed forces. As part of Saudi Arabia's "Saudi First" policy, the kingdom is prioritizing economic stability, especially safeguarding its oil revenues and development projects like Vision 2030. In turn, Iran appears to be seeking assurances from Riyadh, such as not allowing Saudi territory to be used for Israeli attacks. While no formal deal has been disclosed, both sides seem to have reached an understanding to avoid targeting each other, suggesting a mutual interest in preventing further regional conflict. Economic stability, especially related to oil, underpins these evolving relationships between traditional adversaries. Bloomberg 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese coast guard claims Japanese fishing boat 'illegally' entered territorial waters.  China's coast guard has reported an incident in which a Japanese fishing vessel "illegally entered" Chinese territorial waters near the disputed Diaoyu Islands, called Senkaku by Japan, on Oct. 15-16. The coast guard warned the Japanese boat to leave and urged Tokyo to stop conducting such activities, asserting its commitment to maritime rights enforcement in the area. Japan, which disputes China's claim to the islands, has had several confrontations with Beijing over the region in recent months. In June, Tokyo protested the passage of Chinese vessels in its territorial waters. Concerns continue to grow over China’s increased military activity near Japan and Taiwan. Reuters Inquirer 

Taiwan official says China boosting capacity to quickly strike island.A senior Taiwan security official has warned that China's military drills around Taiwan are increasingly designed to quickly transition into a full-scale attack. These drills, which China claims are a warning against "separatist acts," are a part of a strategic pressure campaign against the self-governing island. Speaking at a briefing in Taipei, the official said that Beijing has increased “pressure,” and “squeezed Taiwan's response time.” They stated that this drill, which involved a record 153 aircraft and 25 navy and coast guard boats, “presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan." Reuters Taiwan News 

China uses cyberattacks, military drills, celebrities, and intimidation tactics to weaken Taiwan. China is intensifying its efforts to pressure Taiwan into submission through a combination of military drills, cyberattacks, diplomatic isolation, disinformation, and legal measures. China’s recent, large-scale military exercises are perceived as part of a broader strategy to intimidate and isolate the island. Alongside military actions, the sovereign territory faces an increasing number of cyberattacks, with over 90,000 attempts detected in August alone. Beijing is also working diplomatically to erode Taipei's international support, particularly through efforts to convince small nations to shift their allegiance from Taiwan to China. On the legal front, China has charged Taiwanese officials with "secessionist activities" and used its secession law to sentence pro-independence activists to severe punishments. The Asian power has even allegedly recruited Taiwanese celebrities by inviting them to China in exchange for support. As the chief of Taiwan’s National Security Council said, the threat to Taipei involves “military, gray zone and economic coercion, hybrid warfare, legal warfare and psychological warfare.” Taiwan’s people, however, remain resilient, with widespread public support for maintaining its current self-governance. Despite China's claims that it seeks peaceful reunification, the military drills and legal actions signal a readiness to use force if necessary, heightening tensions between the two sides. Wall Street Journal 

China alleges that foreign firm, local company illegally collected geographic data. The Chinese Ministry of State Security has accused an unnamed foreign company and a local firm of illegally collecting geographic information under the pretense of smart driving technology research. Beijing claims that the foreign company, not licensed to gather such data in China, used a local, qualified map-making firm to covertly collect and transfer the data out of the country. An investigation revealed that the data contained state secrets, and both companies were subsequently held accountable, according to a Wednesday statement. This incident occurs amid international tensions over Chinese sensor-laden vehicles, with both the U.S. and Canada considering bans on Chinese smart car technology due to national security concerns. Though the companies were not named, speculation spread on Chinese social media, with firms like Tesla, Mobileye, and Geely's Zeekr publicly denying involvement and stating their compliance with Beijing’s regulations. Some, including a Chinese car reviewer, called for transparency to prevent false accusations against legally operating companies. Bloomberg 

Pyongyang designates Seoul ‘hostile state,’ signaling change in constitution, abandonment of unification goal. North Korea has officially labeled South Korea a "hostile state" in its constitution, an “inevitable and legitimate measure” that further exacerbates tensions between the two neighbors. This designation was confirmed by North Korean state media on Thursday, which also verified the destruction of roads and railways connecting the North to the South. The move distances Pyongyang from any peaceful reunification efforts and comes in response to the hardline stance of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. The constitutional change follows a recent meeting of North Korea’s legislature, though details of the revisions were not immediately disclosed. Totalitarian leader Kim Jong Un has also recently called for the assertion of control over a disputed nautical border, a development that further inflames fears of conflict. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press France 24 Deutsche Welle 

South Korea pledges heavier penalties to hinder technology leaks.South Korea plans to implement stronger measures to prevent the illegal leakage of business secrets, particularly in advanced technology sectors, as global competition intensifies. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok announced that the government will introduce a "big data" system to prevent leaks and enforce stricter penalties, though specific punishments were not detailed. The National Intelligence Service reported that over the past five years, there have been 97 attempted leaks of business secrets to foreign countries, with 40 related to the semiconductor industry. These breaches could have potentially costed South Korea around 23 trillion won ($16.85 billion). South Korea has designated 12 industries, including semiconductors, batteries, aerospace, and artificial intelligence, as "national strategic technologies" to receive targeted financial support and protection amid supply chain fragmentation and mounting global competition. Reuters 

Indonesia’s Jokowi demonstrated how Asian nations can bypass U.S.-Chinese rivalry.Indonesian President Joko Widodo, known widely as Jokowi, leaves office on October 20 after a decade serving as one of the country’s most beloved leaders. He is known for domestic achievements, such as reducing political corruption, attracting foreign investment for infrastructure, and expanding public access to healthcare and education. His practical and non-ideological style, coupled with his humble background, helped him secure an unprecedented approval rating of 75%. Jokowi also reshaped Indonesia’s foreign policy, moving away from the nation’s traditional nonalignment stance. Rather than choosing between Washington and Beijing, he pursued pragmatic, transactional relationships with multiple nations, including China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia, while maintaining ties with the U.S. and Europe. This "intelligence diplomacy" focused on securing economic benefits for Indonesia rather than engaging in ideological or grand diplomatic goals. Unlike leaders such as Indian Prime Minister Modi or Turkish President Erdogan, Jokowi avoided global leadership ambitions, focusing instead on Indonesia’s economic growth and development. His foreign policy approach prioritized practical outcomes, such as attracting foreign investment and improving infrastructure, and rejected Indonesia’s former role of nonalignment as an ideological goal. Jokowi’s approach reflects a growing global trend of nations embracing self-interest and pragmatism in foreign policy. This materialistic, transactional approach stands in contrast to the ideological divides of the Cold War era, making Jokowi a leader attuned to the changing dynamics of the modern world. Foreign Affairs

AFRICA

U.S. engaged in intelligence sharing to prevent expansion of conflict, violence in Congo. In November of last year, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines offered to share intelligence with both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda to promote a cease-fire in the long-standing conflict involving M23 rebels in eastern Congo. Despite nearly a year of intelligence sharing with both sides, however, this effort has only led to a temporary and fragile cease-fire. The M23 rebel group, allegedly backed by Rwanda, has continued to expand its control over key mineral resources, including coltan, while hostilities persist. The U.S. has used "intelligence diplomacy" in the conflict, aiming to build trust and reduce tensions, but tangible outcomes remain limited. For example, the Congo complied with Washington’s requests to stop using Chinese-made drones, but frustrations persist regarding Rwanda's commitment to the peace process. The conflict has displaced millions and remains volatile, with violence and human rights violations ongoing despite U.S. diplomatic efforts. Bloomberg 

Egypt replaces spy head who mediated between Israel and Hamas. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi has replaced his influential spy chief, Abbas Kamel, with Hassan Rashad, a longtime intelligence official. Former General Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel was crucial in brokering cease-fire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Once seen as the second-most powerful figure in Egypt, Kamel developed close ties with U.S., Israeli, and Hamas leaders. His new role as special envoy and general coordinator of security services raises debate on whether it is a promotion or demotion. He played a key role in diplomatic efforts during the Gaza crisis, working closely with CIA Director William Burns and Israeli and Qatari officials. His efforts led to a brief truce in November 2023, though ongoing negotiations have since stalled. Kamel has been a trusted ally to President Sisi since they served together in military intelligence, and his role in Cairo’s security and diplomatic operations, including in Libya and Sudan, has been significant. Rashad, his replacement, is also a seasoned intelligence figure with experience overseeing Egypt’s relations with Iran. Wall Street Journal  

Mali’s military junta chief elevates himself to the highest rank in the army. Malian junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita, who seized power in 2020, on Wednesday promoted himself to the rank of army general. This is a title previously held by only two former heads of state. The move signals Goita's intent to retain control and delay any transition to civilian rule. Five other key colonels in the junta were also promoted to four-star generals. Experts suggest this is a clear indication that the junta plans to maintain power and is not moving toward a democratic transition. No date has been set for Mali's presidential election. Associated Press Barron's  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. indicts Sudanese nationals accused of conducting ‘Anonymous Sudan’ cyberattacks.  A U.S. federal grand jury unsealed an indictment Wednesday against two Sudanese nationals — Ahmed Salah Yousif Omer and Alaa Salah Yusuuf Omer — for allegedly running the Anonymous Sudan cybercriminal group. A stunning 35,000 distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks since the beginning of 2023 are attributed to the group. The group targeted critical infrastructure, corporate networks, and government agencies globally, hitting entities like Microsoft, OpenAI and Los Angeles' Cedars-Sinai Hospital. The U.S. Justice Department seized the group’s tools earlier this year, halting its operations. The two men have reportedly been in custody since March after being arrested by an unnamed country. Experts say the group’s high-profile attacks were aimed to promote their hacker-for-hire services. “Their motivations, while often masked under religious or Sudanese nationalist sentiments, were primarily driven by a desire for notoriety and attention,” CrowdStrike said.  CyberScoop Bloomberg Washington Post 

CISA and partner agencies warn of ‘brute force’ cyberattacks by Iranian hackers on critical infrastructure sector.  CISA, the FBI, the NSA, and partner agencies from Canada and Australia jointly released a cybersecurity advisory on Iranian cyber actors attempting to breach critical infrastructure organizations with “brute force and password spraying.” The threat is not new — the advisory says the malicious activity has been going on since October 2023. However, while most Iranian cyberattacks appear to have been focused on government targets and the U.S. election, the advisory warns of criminal activity, assessing that Iranian hackers are trying to steal data from critical infrastructure targets to sell online. The advisory urges critical infrastructure organizations to bolster cybersecurity measures in response.  CISA CyberScoop BleepingComputer

Amazon joins turn to nuclear power to meet data center energy demands.  Amazon announced on Wednesday that it is investing in projects on developing small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to help meet energy demands from artificial intelligence and data centers. Google and Microsoft are likewise investing in SMRs for the same reason. Nuclear power produces no greenhouse gas emissions and is always available, as opposed to other renewables like solar and wind which require batteries and energy storage for constant use. Amazon is leading a $500 million funding round for SMR developer X-Energy Reactor and is working with utilities in Washington state and Virginia. Amazon and X-Energy aim to bring projects that will produce over 5 gigawatts of power online by 2039.  Washington Post New York Times

RTX pays $950 million over fraud, Qatar bribery charges.  The U.S. Justice Department announced Wednesday that defense contractor RTX, previously known as Raytheon Technologies, agreed to pay over $950 million over charges of bribery and fraud. RTC admitted to providing fraudulent information to the U.S. Army which resulted in $111 million in inflated contracts for Patriot air-defense systems in 2013 and a radar system In 2017. RTX also admitted that payments it made to a high-level official in the Qatar Armed Forces were intended as bribes. RTX agreed to pay the penalty and submit to a three-year deferred prosecution agreement, under which the company is tasked to improve compliance measures and agrees to be subject to independent monitoring of its operations.   Washington Post Wall Street Journal

China industry security group calls for review of Intel chips.  The CyberSecurity Association of China is urging a cybersecurity review of Intel products by the country’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). The group claims Intel products show security vulnerabilities and high failure rates, which pose a threat to China’s nationals security. The CAC may soon open an official investigation into Intel. Last year, it conducted a cybersecurity review of fellow American chipmaker Micron Technology, which identified “significant security risks” in Micron products. The CAC then directed major Chinese IT infrastructure operators to not buy Micron products. If a similar curtailing of Intel sales in China happens, it could deal a heavy blow to the company. Over a quarter of Intel’s sales were in China, including chips used in products assembled in China and exported elsewhere.  Wall Street Journal

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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