Report for Thursday, October 10, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Thursday, October 10, 2024

 Israel’s counterattack on Iran to be ‘lethal’ and ‘surprising’

Ukraine considers lifting the ban on drone exports

Mexico says it will back U.S. in event of trade battles with China

Ursula von der Leyen lambasts Viktor Orbán over Russia

Saudi Arabia defeated in bid for seat on U.N. human rights body

U.S. National Cyber Director cautions against Chinese attacks and ransomware

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Amid Russian Advance, a Problem for Ukraine: Not Enough Fighters. Ukraine faces a critical shortage of trained soldiers as Russian forces advance, particularly in the Donbas region. Despite urgent pleas for Western military support, the Ukrainian military is struggling to replenish its ranks, with many young men either abroad or avoiding conscription. The recently lowered draft age from 27 to 25 has not significantly improved the situation. Experts argue that the manpower issue, alongside insufficient Western military aid, threatens Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts and fight off Russian aggression in the long term. The Cipher Brief

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Biden, Netanyahu talk, but Israel’s plan for striking back at Iran remains secret.  President Joe Biden had a half-hour phone call with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu Wednesday, their first talk in almost two months.  “They discussed a range of issues,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, including Israel’s planned response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack last week. The call was "direct and very productive," Jean-Pierre told reporters.  But she would not say what exactly Biden and Netanyahu said to each other.  Biden has said Israel should make a “proportional” response and rule out an attack on Iranian nuclear sites.  Netanyahu hasn’t offered any reassurances that he’ll follow Biden’s guidance. The U.S. still doesn’t know exactly when, where, how and how hard Israel plans to strike Iran.  Biden is reported to have uttered a string of epithets after some of their talks, and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III was reported to be “angry beyond words” when Israeli officials didn’t warn the U.S. that they were about to launch a bombing raid to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, an audacious act that risked lives of Americans in the Middle East.   Reuters  CNN New York Times  Wall Street Journal BBC 

Israeli defense minister says Israel’s counterattack on Iran to be ‘lethal’ and ‘surprising’.  “Our strike will be lethal, precise and above all, surprising,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday during a speech to Israeli troops. “They won’t understand what happened and how. They will see the results.  Whoever strikes us will be harmed and pay a price.”   Meanwhile Wednesday, the Israeli military continued its large-scale operation against Hamas in northern Gaza and its  ground offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Associated Press

Netanyahu-Gallant rivalry on display as Israel prepares to respond to Iran attack.  Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have met or talked by phone more than 80 times over the last year.  Their latest face-to-face session was to have taken place Wednesday in Washington, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled it at the last minute.  Netayahu’s abrupt move laid bare the tensions between Netanyahu and his defense minister, a rival for leadership of the Likud party.  The Washington Post reports on their fraught relationship and the obvious tensions between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden. Washington Post

U.S. envoy lambasts Israel at U.N. for 'catastrophic conditions' in Gaza. The United States has again urged Israel to address the "catastrophic conditions" facing Palestinian civilians in Gaza and to stop "intensifying suffering" by limiting aid deliveries. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield called on Israel to take urgent action, as conditions in south and central Gaza have worsened significantly since the conflict began. The U.N. Security Council met on Wednesday to discuss the humanitarian crisis, a year after Hamas militants' attacked Israel. Nearly 42,000 people in Gaza have died during Israel’s overwhelming retaliation, with nearly the entire population of 2.3 million having been displaced. While Israel claims it has allowed 82% of aid requests, the U.N. and other countries are calling for fewer barriers to aid delivery, with UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini warning that civilians, living in “intolerable” conditions, are “teetering on the edge of a man-made famine.” Additionally, over 300 humanitarian aid workers have been killed during the conflict. Reuters Jerusalem Post Times of Israel Reuters

 Turkish navy starts evacuations of its citizens from Beirut as Israel battles Hezbollah. Ankara evacuated more than 2,000 Turkish citizens and some foreign nationals from Lebanon on a Turkish military ship on Wednesday due to devastating Israeli airstrikes. The evacuees boarded the TCG Bayraktar and TCG Sancaktar, vessels part of a six-ship convoy that also delivered 300 tons of humanitarian aid to Lebanon, including food and supplies. The Turkish government organized the evacuation, citing safety concerns due to the escalating conflict, which has killed over 1,300 people in Lebanon. The evacuees included citizens from Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Kazakhstan. The evacuation comes amid ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel

Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky sees an 'opportunity' to end the war in Ukraine by 2025. At the Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit in Dubrovnik, Croatia, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that battlefield conditions create a chance to end Russia’s invasion by 2025. He emphasized that Ukraine has a “real chance” to push for peace and stability with strong Western support, including potential NATO membership in the coming months. Zelensky called for decisive action from allies and investments in Ukraine's defense industry. He also signed a 10-year cooperation deal with Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. Reuters Euronews

ANALYSIS–America’s presidential election marks a fork in the road for Ukraine. Ukraine’s future hangs on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s September visit to the U.S. did not go well. He enraged Republicans by appearing alongside Democrats at a munitions factory and by criticizing Donald Trump. He failed to impress the Biden administration with his victory plan. The election outcome will affect whether the U.S. supports Ukraine’s NATO membership and continues aid. Kamala Harris echoes Biden’s policy of supporting Ukraine, while Trump has been vague, promising to end the war quickly. With both sides in a military stalemate, pressure is mounting for negotiations, and public opinion in Ukraine shows some openness to territorial compromises for peace. The reality is that Zelensky and his allies in Europe and Washington have yet to articulate a realistic plan for how to win the war. Vladimir Putin’s Russia, on the other hand, is weaker than Ukraine and the West together but hopes to outlast his enemies.  The Economist

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 9, injure 34 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least nine people and injured 34 over the past day, authorities said Thursday. Eight were killed and 11 injured in a missile attack on port infrastructure in Odesa, which also hit a Panama-flagged civilian vessel. One person was killed, and 10 were injured in Kherson Oblast. In other regions, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts reported injuries from missile and drone strikes, damaging residential and administrative buildings. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 41 of the 62 Shahed drones launched overnight, with additional missile strikes targeting various locations. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Zelensky meets UK's Starmer, NATO's Rutte in London. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Downing Street on Thursday to discuss Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. Zelensky presented details of his "victory plan" during the meeting, while Starmer reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to support Ukraine. The talks are part of Zelensky's broader European tour to secure aid ahead of the U.S. presidential election. NATO chief Mark Rutte also participated in the meeting. Zelensky seeks permission to use British-supplied long-range missiles against Russian targets. BBC Reuters 

Zelensky awaits new summit date after Biden postpones Germany trip. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that Ukraine would present its "victory plan" at the next Ramstein meeting of defense ministers, though uncertainty surrounds when it will occur after President Joe Biden postponed his trip because of Hurricane Milton. A German defense ministry spokesperson confirmed that while defense ministers plan to meet this month, no date has been set. Despite the postponement, analysts say Ukraine remains a priority. Zelensky is traveling through Europe, meeting key figures such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Pope Francis. The Ramstein group, formed after Russia’s 2022 invasion, includes 50 nations that coordinate military aid to match Ukraine’s defense needs. Reuters Associated Press RTE RFE/RL

Zelensky to meet Scholz in Berlin on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Berlin on Friday to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier as part of his European tour, according to sources. This comes after the postponement of a planned Oct. 12 summit in Ramstein, Germany, following U.S. President Joe Biden’s canceled visit. Reuters

Pope Francis, Meloni to meet Zelensky on Friday. Pope Francis will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday in Vatican City. This will be their second meeting this year, following a brief encounter at the G7 summit. Zelensky is also expected to meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome during his visit. The pope previously faced criticism from Ukrainian officials for urging negotiations with Russia earlier in the war. Reuters

Ukraine War Map Shows Russia Ramp Up Gains Across Donetsk Front Line. Russian forces have made advances in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast, particularly around Vuhledar, Pokrovsk-Kurakhove, and Toretsk, raising concerns about a potential collapse of the Ukrainian front. Reports indicate that Moscow’s troops have also seized territory near Siversk and raised their flag in Zhelanne Pershe. The Institute for the Study of War noted Russian progress west of Donetsk city, capturing half of Maksymilyanivka. As Russian forces push towards Pokrovsk, fears grow of a breakthrough that could further destabilize Ukrainian defenses. Newsweek

EU countries back €35bn loan to Ukraine. European Union countries have approved a €35 billion loan to Ukraine as part of the G7’s $50 billion aid package to support Kyiv’s defense against Russia. The loan, guaranteed by the EU budget, follows months of debate over structuring contributions. The funds will be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets, but Hungary and Slovakia blocked a proposal to extend EU sanctions, complicating U.S. participation in the G7 scheme. Malta abstained, citing neutrality concerns. The European Parliament will vote on the loan later this month, and U.S. involvement remains uncertain due to political disagreements. Financial Times

Russia has suffered more than 600K casualties in Ukraine, US official says. Russia has suffered over 600,000 casualties – killed or wounded – in its war against Ukraine, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. This is double the previous U.S. estimate, with September 2024 seeing the highest number of casualties. Despite losses, including two-thirds of its prewar tank inventory and 32 naval vessels, Russia continues pressing forward in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk, using mass waves of troops. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is trying to avoid a mass mobilization because of the effect that would have on Russia’s domestic population,” the official said. “At this point, he has been able to increase the pay of these voluntary soldiers significantly, and he has been able to continue to field those forces without doing a major mobilization.” The Hill Politico

Russia bans Discord chat program to the chagrin of its military users. Russia has banned Discord, a popular communication platform, sparking frustration within its military, which heavily relies on the app for coordination in Ukraine. The ban, imposed by internet regulator Roskomnadzor, highlights the Russian military's failure to develop a secure domestic communication system. Military bloggers criticized the abrupt move, which left troops without proper communication alternatives. The ban also reignited debates about Russia’s bureaucratic inefficiencies hindering its war effort. Roskomnadzor, which has been on a crusade for years to ban Western online platforms and create a “sovereign internet,” said in a statement that access to Discord was restricted “to prevent the use of the messenger for terrorist and extremist purposes, recruitment of citizens to commit them, sale of drugs, and in connection with the posting of illegal information.” Many lawmakers urged reconsideration, pointing to the lack of viable Russian alternatives and the app’s widespread civilian and military use. Washington Post

Ukraine May Have Blown Up 5 Percent Of Russia’s Shahed Drones In A Single Attack. A Ukrainian strike on a warehouse in southern Russia near Oktyabrsky reportedly destroyed 400 Iranian-made Shahed drones, Ukraine's general staff said Wednesday. This represents nearly 5 percent of the total Shaheds used by Russia in its war on Ukraine. Video footage confirms the strike, which resulted in a large explosion and secondary detonations. The Shahed drones, key to Russia’s deep strikes on Ukrainian cities, have caused significant civilian casualties. The attack aims to reduce future drone strikes, but Russia can replenish its drone supply from Iran or its production facility in Tatarstan. Forbes

Macron meets Ukrainian troops training in France ahead of talks with Zelensky. French President Emmanuel Macron inspected Ukrainian troops training in eastern France on Wednesday before meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky. France is training 2,300 Ukrainian soldiers, part of a brigade named after Kyiv-born Queen Anne of France. Macron reaffirmed France’s unwavering support for Ukraine and pledged further military aid, including armored vehicles, artillery, and anti-tank missiles. Zelensky’s visit to Paris is part of a European tour to garner backing for his victory plan. He will meet with other European leaders, seeking long-term support and permission to use long-range Western weapons against Russia. France 24 Associated Press

Why Kamala Harris is ignoring Ukraine on the campaign trail. While pledging support for Ukraine, Kamala Harris has largely avoided discussing the war on the campaign trail, focusing instead on domestic issues like the economy and immigration. Public support for U.S. aid to Ukraine has waned, with only 24% backing current funding levels. Harris’ reluctance to emphasize Ukraine reflects the declining importance of foreign policy to voters, especially in swing states. Concerns have arisen that Ukraine may not be a priority if she wins. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s isolationist stance challenges the traditional U.S. role, leaving Ukraine’s future dependent on the election outcome. The Telegraph

Africans recruited to work in Russia say they were duped into building drones for use in Ukraine. African women recruited to Russia through misleading social media ads were promised jobs in hospitality but ended up working in a factory assembling Iranian-designed drones used in Ukraine. The women, aged 18-22, from countries like Uganda and Kenya, complained of long hours, low wages, and poor working conditions, including exposure to harmful chemicals. Russia, facing labor shortages due to the war, has increasingly turned to foreign workers. The Alabuga factory in Tatarstan, where they work, is central to Russia’s drone production. Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the exploitative nature of this recruitment. Associated Press 

Could Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Have Been Prevented? NATO’s Outgoing Chief Thinks So. In his final interview as NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg expressed regret that the West did not provide more military support to Ukraine after Russia's initial invasion in 2014, suggesting that early aid could have prevented the full-scale war. Stoltenberg avoided criticizing NATO members but emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine. He highlighted NATO's progress in aiding Ukraine while cautioning against complacency in future defense efforts. Stoltenberg also stressed the importance of U.S. involvement in NATO's support for Ukraine, urging European allies to engage with any future U.S. administration, including if Donald Trump is re-elected. Politico

Ukraine considers lifting the ban on drone exports. Ukraine is considering lifting its ban on drone exports to raise funds for increased drone production for its defense forces. Following Russia’s invasion, exports were halted to prioritize domestic needs, but limited state resources now necessitate alternative funding sources. Exporting drones could generate up to $20 billion, helping manufacturers expand production and attract investors. Concerns over brain drain and reduced tax revenues further push the urgency of this decision. Ukrainian drones are already being produced in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, with over 1.5 million units contracted out of a potential 4 million annually. Militarnyi Financial Times

Ukrainian patriotism and profits spur a boom in war bonds. Ukrainian war bonds have seen a surge in popularity as citizens like lawyer Olesia Mykhailenko encourage others to invest, driven by patriotism and high returns. The ongoing war has created an urgent need for domestic debt, with Ukraine requiring an additional $12 billion for defense by the end of 2024. Retail investors' interest in war bonds has grown significantly, offering up to 18% yields for hryvnia-denominated bonds. Though individuals account for only 4% of Ukraine’s domestic bond portfolio, simplified access and symbolic names tied to occupied cities have boosted their appeal during the conflict. Reuters

Ukraine's parliament approves 'historic' tax hike. Ukraine’s parliament approved a tax hike on Wednesday to address the budget deficit amid Russia's ongoing war. The bill is expected to raise $1.4 billion in 2024 and $3.3 billion in 2025. It increases the military tax on personal income from 1.5% to 5%, including for military personnel and self-employed individuals. Corporate taxes for banks and financial institutions will also rise. The legislation has faced criticism for potentially worsening already challenging living conditions as Ukraine grapples with war-related economic strain. Kyiv Independent

.Why is Russia bombing ships carrying Ukrainian grain? Russia has resumed targeting ships carrying Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea, disrupting exports and threatening global food security. Recent missile strikes on vessels like the Optima and Paresa signal a shift in Moscow’s strategy to undermine Ukraine’s economy by weakening its grain exports. Experts suggest this move could enhance Russia's dominance in grain markets. These attacks raise risks for foreign shippers, increase insurance premiums, and create logistical bottlenecks for Ukraine’s farmers, making it harder to fund future planting seasons. Moscow may also be retaliating for Ukrainian attacks or seeking to weaken Ukraine economically. After its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia initially blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, causing global food prices to spike. Though exports briefly resumed under the Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, Russia withdrew from the agreement in 2023. Al Jazeera

Oil depot in occupied Crimea's Feodosia burning for 4th day after Ukraine's strike. A fire at the largest oil depot in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea, has been burning for four days following a Ukrainian missile strike on Monday. The fire, which erupted at the Marine Oil Terminal, has prompted the evacuation of 1,137 people. Efforts to extinguish the blaze are ongoing, with concerns about local water supplies. Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian oil facilities, aiming to disrupt Russia's war efforts. Kyiv Independent

Russia claims downing over 90 Ukrainian drones amid reports of airbase strike. Russian forces claim to have shot down 92 Ukrainian drones on Thursday, with the majority intercepted over Krasnodar Krai. Reports suggest that Ukraine targeted a military airfield in Russia’s Adygea Republic, destroying a fuel depot. Drone attacks were also reported in several other Russian regions, including Kursk and Rostov. Ukraine continues to strike Russian military facilities to diminish the Russian Air Force's capacity and curb attacks on Ukrainian cities. A Russian weapons depot storing North Korean ammunition was reportedly hit in Bryansk Oblast. Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Companies sell their businesses in Russia. Many Western companies have sold or transferred their Russian assets to local managers due to sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Notable examples include Continental, Renault, and Volkswagen in the auto sector; HSBC and Societe Generale in banking; and Shell and AB InBev in energy and consumer goods. Other sectors, such as forestry, retail, and tobacco, also saw exits, with companies like Mondi, McDonald's, and British American Tobacco divesting. Sales often involved financial losses, reflecting the complexities of exiting the Russian market. Reuters

Ukraine’s vast forests devastated in hellscape of war. Ukraine’s forests, especially in areas like Sviati Hory National Park, have suffered destruction due to the war, with fires and shelling devastating the landscape. Nearly 80% of the park’s 12,000 hectares have been affected. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have contributed to the damage, with forests left littered with mines and unexploded ordnance. Demining and regenerating the forests could take decades and cost billions, with experts highlighting the long-term environmental damage caused by the conflict. Ukraine is pursuing legal action against Russia for the destruction. Reuters

Ukrainian Media Outlet Says It's Being Pressured By Zelensky's Office. Ukrayinska Pravda, a prominent Ukrainian media outlet, accused President Zelensky’s office of "systematic pressure" threatening its editorial independence. In a Wednesday statement, the outlet claimed government officials blocked interviews, pressured businesses to pull ads, and engaged in emotionally charged exchanges with its journalists. Editor-in-chief Sevhil Musayeva stated that these actions are part of a broader attempt to influence their reporting. The media outlet warned of international consequences if the pressure continues. Zelensky’s office has not commented on the allegations. Ukrayinska Pravda, founded by journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, remains a symbol of free press in Ukraine. RFE/RL

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. The Russian military is conducting high-tempo mechanized assaults in Ukraine to gain tactical advantages before muddy conditions constrain movement in autumn. U.S. General Christopher Cavoli indicated that the U.S. is withholding specific weapon systems and communication networks that could support Ukraine's war effort. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun confirmed the presence of a limited number of North Korean military personnel near occupied Donetsk City. Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout helped broker a $10 million arms deal to Yemen's Houthi rebels, reflecting deepening Russo-Iranian cooperation. Russia banned Discord on Tuesday, likely hindering ad-hoc frontline communications. Russian forces continue using chemical weapons in Ukraine, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. Ukrainian forces suggest Russia may have depleted its stocks of aerial bombs for glide bomb strikes.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in multiple regions, including Kreminna, Siversk, and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Germany’s ‘deplorable’ divide on the Ukraine war. Gideon Rachman talks to Norbert Röttgen, a Christian Democratic Union member of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament and author of a new book called Democracy and War. Röttgen criticizes Chancellor Olaf Scholz for failing to live up to his early pledges of support for Ukraine. He laments the country's 'deplorable' divide on the Ukraine war but says he is convinced that most Germans recognize that a victory for Russia would be disastrous for Europe. Financial Times

Opinion: What will it take for Ukraine to ‘win’? Thomas Graham argues that while Ukraine is unlikely to reclaim its occupied territories fully, its long-term success hinges on rebuilding and aligning with the West. Ukraine must secure military resources to defend against future Russian aggression, pursue EU accession to drive socio-economic reforms and receive credible security guarantees from Western allies.  The Hill

Opinion: What ‘peace’ in Ukraine on Russian terms would actually mean. Adrian Bonenberger argues that peace on Russia’s terms would mean a defenseless Ukraine, losing territories and facing dependence on Russia. This would lead to millions of Ukrainians, including soldiers, politicians, and refugees, fleeing to Europe and the U.S. Bonenberger criticizes pro-Russian views within the Donald Trump campaign, particularly those of JD Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for advocating peace that benefits Russia. He also notes the absence of a clear plan from the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket to achieve peace on Ukraine’s terms, which most Americans support. The Hill

THE AMERICAS

Experts argue U.S. and China are locked in lose-lose tech battle regardless of Nov. 5 election winner. The U.S.-China tech war is expected to persist and escalate regardless of the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have signaled strong stances on tech competition with China, although their approaches may differ. Trump may focus on tariffs and trade confrontations, while Harris is likely to continue Biden's “small yard, high fence” policy of restricting Chinese access to key technologies, like semiconductors and AI, while preserving normal economic exchanges. The rivalry centers on controlling advanced technologies and high-tech industries, with Beijing emphasizing self-reliance and Washington tightening restrictions on tech transfers. Despite differing tactics, both superpowers aim to dominate the global tech landscape. Analysts expect further restrictions on Chinese tech from the White House under either leader. Meanwhile, Beijing is investing heavily in domestic tech development, particularly in chips and AI, while trying to cultivate home-grown talent. The tech competition is expected to have global consequences, as nations and companies will be forced to choose between American and Chinese technology ecosystems. However, some analysts warn that this tech decoupling could result in long-term challenges for both nations. South China Morning Post

Mexico says it will back U.S. in event of trade battles with China, seeks to increase local content. Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard on Tuesday indicated that Mexico will side with the U.S. in upcoming trade disputes with China. Speaking at a business forum, Ebrard stressed that the country's strategy will focus on supporting North America's interests, particularly by capitalizing on nearshoring, which relocates production from Asia to Mexico. He underscored the importance of increasing Mexico's domestic content in manufacturing exports, currently under 20%, and working closely with companies to bring more suppliers and parts producers to Mexico. Ebrard aims to boost Mexico's production capacity and market share. In 2023, the nation overtook China as the leading supplier of goods to the U.S. for the first time in over two decades. Associated Press 

US bars former president, vice president of Ecuador from traveling to the U.S. The State Department said Wednesday that former Ecuador President Rafael Correa and former Vice President Jorge Glas can’t enter the U.S. because Correa, who now  lives in Belgium has been convicted of corruption and sentenced to prison. "Correa and Glas abused their positions…by accepting bribes, including through political contributions, in exchange for granting favorable government contracts," the State Department said in a statement. Their wives and children have also been barred.  Correa, posting on X, said the charges were without merit and the U.S. action was unfair. Reuters

Death toll in brutal Haitian gang attack rises to at least 115. The death toll from last week’s shocking gang attack on the town of Pont-Sondé in central Haiti has risen to 115, with authorities still searching for more bodies. The attack, which was carried out by the Gran Grif gang, is one of Haiti's worst massacres in recent history. Victims, including babies, young mothers, and the elderly, were caught by surprise when gang members reached the town via canoes. Despite prior warnings, authorities were unable to prevent the assault. Over 6,200 survivors fled to nearby Saint-Marc, where some are sheltering with relatives, and others are sleeping in public spaces. The attack was driven by the gang's anger over a local self-defense group trying to limit its activities. Gran Grif, a powerful gang in the Artibonite region, has been involved in numerous crimes, including kidnappings and murder. Its leaders were recently sanctioned by the U.S. and U.N. for their criminal activities. Associated Press PBS CBS

EUROPE

Ursula von der Leyen lambasts Viktor Orbán over Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen harshly criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his support of Russia in its war against Ukraine, accusing him of siding with the aggressor and obstructing EU aid to Kyiv. In a speech Wednesday at the European Parliament, von der Leyen expressed frustration over Hungary’s continued purchase of Russian energy and its new visa scheme for Russian nationals, deeming it a security risk. Orbán defended his stance, dismissing the accusations as "political propaganda" and criticizing the European Union for excluding his pro-Russian group from key parliamentary positions. Financial Times 

E.U. top business leader claims China-Europe trade war ‘unavoidable’ on current trends. Jens Eskelund, chairman of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, warned on Wednesday that a trade war between the E.U. and China is becoming inevitable due to the imbalance in trade relations. He pointed to declining Chinese imports from the E.U. and a surge in Chinese exports, fueled by deflation and overcapacity in China's economy. Beijing recently imposed tariffs on E.U. brandy imports following the bloc’s decision to levy duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Eskelund urged the Asian giant to take Europe’s concerns seriously, criticizing Beijing’s economic policies and their impact on global trade. While talks between the union and China continue regarding EV tariffs, there is little progress. China's weak domestic demand and deflation have led to an export surge, putting pressure on European markets. Analysts are hesitant to label the situation a full trade war, but further escalation could push the conflict in that direction, with Beijing investigating potential tariff hikes on European dairy, pork, and petrol-powered vehicles. Eskelund stressed the need for more equitable trade relations between China and the bloc. South China Morning Post 

Orbán's main foe Péter Magyar talks corruption, Ukraine and battle against the government. In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Péter Magyar, leader of Hungary’s Tisza party, shared his vision to build a modern, peaceful Hungary as an alternative to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Speaking in Strasbourg, Magyar discussed corruption, Orbán's media influence, his legal challenges in Hungary, and his views on Ukraine, migration, and relations with China. The podcast also previews key European Union discussions on migration and Schengen policies and highlights the 2025 World University Rankings release, where European institutions saw a decline. Euronews

Czech Republic, Poland urge E.U. to address irregular migration. The leaders of the Czech Republic and Poland on Wednesday urged the European Union to take stronger action on unauthorized migration and criticized the reintroduction of internal border checks among E.U. countries. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala argued that the bloc’s recent reforms to its asylum system are “insufficient” and should be tightened. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized the need for the union to focus on securing its external borders rather than creating internal borders or relocating migrants within Europe. Tusk, whose country will assume the E.U.'s rotating presidency in January, plans to present a long-term migration plan this weekend. He also noted the ongoing migration pressures at the Poland-Belarus border, which he described as a “wartime landscape,” while blaming Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Associated Press

Detained leader of election watchdog on trial in Russian court. Grigory Melkonyants, the co-chair of Russia's leading election watchdog Golos, is on trial facing charges of organizing activities for an "undesirable" organization. He could receive a sentence of up to six years in prison. Melkonyants has denied the charges, which he said were politically motivated and part of the broader government crackdown on Kremlin critics, rights activists, and independent organizations. Golos, which was founded in 2000, has monitored every major election in Russia and has consistently exposed violations. The group has faced increasing pressure from authorities and has been labeled a "foreign agent.” Although Golos is not designated "undesirable," it was previously affiliated with a European election monitoring group that was declared "undesirable" in 2021. The case against Melkonyants reflects the broader suppression of independent journalists, activists, and opposition figures in Russia. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

Yemen’s Houthi attack vessel in Red Sea. Yemen's Houthi rebels are suspected of launching attacks on a vessel in the Red Sea on Thursday, as part of their ongoing threats to shipping in the area over the conflict in the Middle East. The ship, which was sailing near the East African coast, was damaged by a projectile, though no fire or injuries were reported. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said that two additional projectiles landed in the surrounding waters. The Houthis haven't immediately claimed responsibility. Separately, the British security firm Ambrey on Thursday reported that an unidentified projectile struck a Liberia-flagged tanker about 73 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, causing minor damage. The captain of the Liberia-flagged tanker said it was struck by three projectiles. Associated Press Reuters 

Saudi Arabia defeated in bid for seat on U.N. human rights body. Saudi Arabia lost in its bid for a seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council following a successful campaign by rights groups accusing the nation of severe human rights violations, including the killing of Ethiopian migrants and the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The U.N. director at Human Rights Watch said Riyadh was “unfit to serve” on the council, asserting that regimes which execute “crimes against humanity” and “ensure impunity for those responsible” cannot be “rewarded.” The U.N. General Assembly elected 18 new members to the 47-nation council, with Saudi Arabia receiving 117 votes, fewer than the five successful candidates from the Asia-Pacific group. Rights groups also criticized other countries with poor rights records, but all other candidates were elected, including from regions without contested slates. Saudi Arabia's defeat follows similar unsuccessful bids by Russia, Venezuela, Afghanistan, and South Korea in recent years. Associated Press The Guardian Times of Israel 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China's recent long-range missile test demonstrates necessity of nuclear deterrent. Analysts and diplomats believe that China's September 25 test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Hainan Island to the South Pacific was a significant step for the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force to validate its nuclear deterrent. The test, which involved a full attack profile, marked the first such long-range missile test by Beijing since 1980, although it had been conducting shorter-range missile tests in recent years. The launch was politically significant, with China notifying countries like the U.S., France, and New Zealand beforehand. However, Australia and some Pacific nations expressed concern over the lack of details and called for an end to missile testing in the region. The test was monitored by the nation’s evolving satellite and tracking systems, though the exact launch and landing locations have not been disclosed publicly. Analysts noted that the test used an older DF-31 missile, and it allowed Beijing to evaluate its tracking capabilities, including satellite and space-based intelligence systems. China’s careful handling of the test, avoiding direct provocations or overexposing its capabilities, reflects a cautious approach to military development and diplomacy. Reuters 

Taiwan’s Lai rejects annexation, says Beijing, Taipei “not subordinate to each other.” Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te gave a speech on Thursday commemorating Double Tenth Day, a holiday marking the 113th anniversary of the Republic of China’s founding. Lai reaffirmed the self-governing island’s stance that it is not subordinate to mainland China, emphasizing the fact that Taiwan operates independently from the People's Republic of China and calling for peaceful dialogue while resisting any attempts of annexation. Lai also highlighted Taiwan's commitment to global economic development, focusing on key industries like chips and artificial intelligence. His words preserve the assertive tone set by his predecessors, rejecting Beijing's claims over Taipei and stressing that the two sides are equals. Lai’s comments were met with criticism from Chinese officials, who denounced stance as provocative and confrontational. South China Morning Post Reuters Washington Post BBC

China calls for stronger economic bonds with ASEAN. Chinese Premier Li Qiang advocated for stronger market integration with Southeast Asia during annual ASEAN summit talks in Laos on Thursday, focusing on enhancing trade relations amid global economic uncertainty. He did not address rising tensions in the fiercely disputed South China Sea, where recent clashes between China, the Philippines, and Vietnam have raised global concerns. China and ASEAN aim to finalize an upgraded free trade pact by next year, covering supply chain, digital, and green economies. While Beijing is the union’s top trading partner, ASEAN nations with overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, such as Hanoi and Maila, have expressed frustration over China’s aggressive actions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday underlined the need to resolve these disputes, calling for a code of conduct to maintain peace in the region. Li in turn defended his nation’s actions, referring to the region as a “shared home” and asserting Beijing’s right to protect its sovereignty in the contested waters. The summit also saw ASEAN elevate ties with South Korea and strengthen relations with Japan, with a focus on maritime security and cybersecurity. Meanwhile, discussions on Myanmar’s civil war continued, with ASEAN increasingly expressing its frustration with the ongoing civil war. Associated Press

AFRICA

U.S. sanctions RSF leader for inflaming Sudan’s devastating conflict. The U.S. has sanctioned Algoney Hamdan Daglo Musa, a senior leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), for facilitating the supply of weapons in the 17-month-long war that has killed over 20,000 people and displaced more than 13 million. Algoney, the brother of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, controls the UAE-based Tradive General Trading LLC, which has imported vehicles for the RSF and retrofitted them with weapons.  U.S. Department of Treasury said his actions have aided the paramilitary forces’ ongoing siege of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. The sanctions freeze Algoney's U.S.-related assets and block entities he owns. Washington had previously imposed visa restrictions and sanctions on individuals and companies linked to the conflict. The war, which began in April 2023 between the RSF and the Sudanese military, has caused widespread violence, including atrocities such as mass rape and ethnic killings. Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury 

Sudan's RSF chief accuses Egypt of involvement in airstrikes on paramilitary soldiers. The head of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, on Wednesday accused Egypt of conducting airstrikes on RSF troops with American bombs and providing drones and training to the Sudanese army. Egypt denied these accusations and urged the international community to verify the claims. Although Cairo has appeared to be supportive of Sudan's army, it has also joined efforts to mediate the conflict. In a recorded speech, Hemedti further alleged the involvement of both European and African mercenaries as well as Iranian forces alongside the Sudanese army. The RSF leader signaled a shift in his stance, predicting that the war, which erupted in April 2023, could last years, and saying that some people “talk about one million soldiers.” Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. National Cyber Director cautions against Chinese infrastructure attacks, ransomware, and cyber supply chain concerns. U.S. National Cyber Director Harry Coker on Wednesday voiced concerns about Chinese cyber threats, particularly the state’s power to conduct operations like Volt Typhoon, which infiltrates U.S. critical infrastructure and poses risks of disruption in a potential Taiwan conflict. He warned that these developments are not “traditional espionage,” but are “about the ability to disable and destroy America's ability to mobilize” in the event of conflict. U.S. agencies are actively working to eliminate these threats, with officials recently warning about a new operation, Salt Typhoon, which has been targeting internet service providers. Coker also highlighted risks in the software supply chain, ransomware attacks, and cybercrime. He emphasized the need for global cooperation against ransomware, noting the expansion of a coalition to combat cybercriminals and countries that offer safe havens. Efforts to strengthen "digital solidarity" and international cybersecurity norms are ongoing. Coker mentioned the White House's focus on securing two critical areas of the tech landscape: internet routing and memory-safe programming languages. There have been efforts to secure the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which directs internet traffic, through mechanisms like Resource Public Key Infrastructure (RPKI). Biden administration is also pushing to adopt memory-safe programming languages like Go or Rust, moving away from languages like C or C++ that are prone to memory-related vulnerabilities. The Record Cyberscoop 

Mexico accounts for over 50% of Latin American cybercrimes due to U.S. ties. In the first half of 2024, Mexico accounted for 55% of all reported cyber threats in Latin America, experiencing 31 billion cybercrime attempts. In a study, the California-based cybersecurity firm Fortinet said that as Mexico experiences a nearshoring boom, sectors like logistics, automotive, and electronics manufacturing have become prime targets for cybercriminals, often seeking larger ransoms. The use of artificial intelligence by hackers is also on the rise, augmenting the efficiency of attacks. The Central American nation faces more cyberattacks than Brazil due to its proximity and economic ties with the U.S. Fortinet emphasized the need for a cybersecurity law. President Claudia Sheinbaum, meanwhile, has pledged to create a cybersecurity and AI center but has not committed to specific legislation. Reuters 

Dutch, Irish police arrested suspected administrators of Bohemia dark web marketplace.Two alleged administrators of the dark web marketplace Bohemia have been arrested, a British man in June and Irishman Kevin Daniel Andrei in August, following investigations by Dutch and Irish authorities. Police seized more than €8 million in virtual assets during the arrests. Bohemia, which primarily sold drugs and provided “a small number of advertisements for exploits and malware,” has been under investigation since late 2022. The marketplace processed around 67,000 monthly transactions worth €12 million before shutting down at the end of 2022 in an "exit scam." Law enforcement has since seized its infrastructure as part of broader efforts to combat online cybercrime. The Record 

Government warns of scams related to incoming hurricane. Several government agencies, including the FTC and CISA, are warning people to be aware of scams related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. These scams target both victims and relief efforts, with criminals posing as charity organizations, government officials, or contractors. Common schemes involve fraudulent requests for donations, fake disaster relief services, and deceptive investment opportunities. Scammers may also attempt to steal personal data or funds by promising assistance in exchange for fees. Experts have already detected scam attempts, such as phishing calls and fraudulent offers to buy flood-damaged homes. Authorities urge people to verify sources and avoid making payments through untraceable methods. The Record 

German economy projected to contract for a second consecutive year. The German government announced on Wednesday that its economy, the largest in Europe, is expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2024, marking a second straight year of contraction after a 0.3% decline in 2023. This reverses earlier forecasts of slight growth. The government predicts growth of 1.1% next year and 1.6% by 2026. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck attributed the slowdown to both domestic structural problems and global challenges, particularly competition between China and the U.S. Despite government efforts to address energy supply, bureaucracy, and labor shortages, business leaders call for quicker reforms to stimulate investment. The prolonged economic weakness comes as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition faces declining popularity ahead of a national election in 2024, with the opposition and far-right parties gaining in polls. Associated Press Financial Times 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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