Report for Thursday, November 14, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Thursday, November 14, 2024

Ukraine prioritizes security, not territory, as Trump pushes truce talks

Trump nominates Gabbard, Gaetz for key national security posts

Man arrested in Cambodia for leaking secrets about Israel’s attack on Iran

OpenAI proposes U.S-led AI alliance, investments to compete with China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Trump’s Win Alters the Landscape in the Middle East  The Cipher Brief

Militant Islam is Under Attack — But its Root Causes Endure  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel pounds Hezbollah’s weapons caches, gun-running routes.  Israel’s military said Hezbollah fired 40 projectiles into Israel Wednesday. Israel fired back with strikes on Hezbollah’s strongholds south of Beirut, targeting the militant group’s weapons storage facilities and command centers. Israel’s attacks flattened half a dozen buildings and killed at least eight people, some of them women and children, local health officials said. Israel’s military said Israeli soldiers were killed in fighting in southern Lebanon. Israeli strikes also pummeled the Qusar area in Homs province in central Syria, Syrian state media reported. Israel said those strikes aimed to shut down the route used to move arms from Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Biden administration persisted in its search for a ceasefire. White House envoy Amos Hochstein told Axios “there is a shot” for a truce in Lebanon soon. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a political ally of Hezbollah, said Lebanon is waiting for concrete ceasefire proposals.  Reuters 

Israeli military moves deeper into northern Gaza; EU official accuses Israel of human rights violations.Israeli military strikes killed at least 22 Palestinians in Gaza Wednesday as ground forces went deeper into the northern town of Beit Hanoun, clearing it of most remaining residents, Palestinian health officials said. Israel's north Gaza campaign and forced evacuations of tens of thousands of Palestinians have fueled charges of ethnic cleansing to make way for the return of Israeli settlements. The Israeli military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deny they harbor any such plan, but some Israeli hardline politicians openly favor it.  Israeli officials say their forces have killed hundreds of Hamas fighters who have regrouped in the north. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel "has accomplished the goals that it set for itself" by taking out Hamas' leadership and ensuring the group is unable to launch another massive attack. "This should be a time to end the war.”  Also on Wednesday, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell sent a letter to EU foreign ministers proposing that the bloc suspend its political dialogue with Israel, because of "serious concerns about possible breaches of international humanitarian law in Gaza" which “have not been sufficiently addressed by Israel." Reuters  Reuters   

Israeli West Bank settlers celebrate Trump’s return, hope it will make possible settlement expansion.Jewish settlement advocates in the West Bank celebrated Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency, confident that it would bolster Israeli annexation efforts in the region. During Trump’s first term, U.S. policies favored Israeli claims, by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy there, acknowledging the annexation of the Golan Heights, and dropping the U.S.’s opposition to the settlements. Settlement expansion surged under Trump’s administration, but some supporters remain cautious since his proposed Mideast plan has left room for a Palestinian state. Advocates foresee increased settlement growth and infrastructure under a GOP administration, with some even supporting resettling Gaza. However, potential normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia may limit his support for further expansion. Associated Press 

U.N. cautions an entire generation of Gazans would lose education if UNRWA falls apart. The head of UNRWA warned on Wednesday that Israel's new law which will ban the UN relief agency from operating in Gaza starting in January would deprive an entire generation of Palestinians of their right to education. UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini stressed that over 660,000 children in Gaza rely on the agency for schooling, as no other institution can provide it in the absence of a functioning state. Lazzarini said the law "will have catastrophic consequences," and the lack of education would sow "the seeds for marginalization and extremism." The U.S. has called for Israel to pause the law, describing UNRWA’s role as "indispensable" to Gaza's stability. The U.N. Security Council also urged against dismantling UNRWA, underscoring the fact that if the agency leaves, Israel, as the occupying power, would bear responsibility for these services. Reuters Times of Israel UNRWA   

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Prioritizes Security, Not Territory, as Trump Pushes Truce Talks.  As Donald Trump seeks to expedite peace talks, Kyiv underscores that while it retains its territorial claims, its primary focus is securing strong defense guarantees to prevent renewed Russian aggression. “Talks should be based on guarantees,” said Roman Kostenko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense and intelligence committee. “For Ukraine, nothing is more important.” Despite territorial losses, Kyiv refuses to relinquish claims on any Russian-occupied land, adhering to its 1991 internationally recognized borders, including Crimea. However, Kyiv views guarantees, such as NATO membership or extensive Western weaponry, as crucial deterrents to future wars. Ukrainian leaders argue that conceding land would leave critical areas vulnerable without assurances to prevent future Russian aggression. Perhaps the most detailed clue of Trump’s approach to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin came in a July interview with Fox News. “I would tell Zelensky, no more — you got to make a deal,” Trump said. “I would tell Putin, If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot.” Support for ceding territory in exchange for peace is rising among Ukrainians. In October, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed 32 percent of Ukrainians would support such an agreement, up from 19 percent last year. New York Times

Ukraine’s European allies eye once-taboo ‘land-for-peace’ negotiations. European allies are increasingly open to negotiations on Russia's war in Ukraine that might involve Ukraine conceding some territory in exchange for security guarantees, spurred by Donald Trump’s election victory and waning battlefield momentum for Ukraine. Trump’s signals of openness to territorial compromise and concerns over declining U.S. support are pushing European and NATO officials to explore negotiation frameworks. European diplomats argue it could be a pragmatic path, though concessions risk emboldening Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron said nothing should be decided for Ukraine without Ukrainians. Meanwhile, NATO is boosting support to strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining power. Washington Post

The Pentagon has $9.3 billion left for military aid to Ukraine. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that $9.3 billion remains for military aid to Ukraine, including $7.1 billion in the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and $2.2 billion through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). White House national security spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that President Joe Biden intends to use these funds fully while in office. The Pentagon has already delivered promised munitions and equipment, and a new transfer of 500 interceptor missiles for NASAMS and Patriot systems is planned. Militarnyi

Ukraine receives $1.35 billion from the US for humanitarian and social programs. On Wednesday, Ukraine received a $1.35 billion grant from the United States for humanitarian and social programs, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. This brings Ukraine’s direct budget support from Western allies to $28.2 billion in 2024. Reuters

Corruption Overshadows Ukraine's Multi-Billion Reconstruction Program. Corruption issues are casting a shadow over Ukraine’s vast reconstruction program, where companies like Neo-Eco face obstacles when local officials demand control over project funds. Neo-Eco encountered significant delays after rejecting a request from the Gostomel administration to transfer funds into local accounts. The company, unable to tolerate mounting bribe demands, eventually abandoned the project in September 2023. Investigations later revealed widespread embezzlement, with Gostomel's administration accused of siphoning off public funds. Despite Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms, including 500 cases and 60 convictions this year, graft remains a risk, particularly in reconstruction. Transparency efforts such as the DREAM platform, which allows public tracking of projects, are steps toward accountability. Former reconstruction agency head Mustafa Nayyem emphasized that the war should not justify leniency on corruption, asserting that overcoming graft requires political will, not just policy. For foreign investors, such efforts are key to restoring trust and securing support.  Barron’s

Trump expected to 'soon' appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to appoint a senior Ukrainian peace envoy soon, tasked with negotiating an end to the war with Russia, according to sources. This volunteer envoy role follows the precedent set by Kurt Volker from 2017 to 2019. Fox News

Foreign Ministry denies Kyiv plans to build a nuclear bomb. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday denied reports suggesting it intends to develop nuclear weapons, affirming its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi emphasized Ukraine’s transparency with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Rumors intensified after a report in The Times suggested Ukraine could quickly create a basic nuclear device if U.S. aid ceased under President-elect Donald Trump. President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously hinted that Ukraine might reconsider its defense strategy, citing the failures of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for security assurances from the U.S., U.K., and Russia. A report to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense suggests Ukraine could produce a device similar to the 1945 Nagasaki bomb using plutonium from nuclear reactors. Oleksii Yizhak of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies asserts that while technically challenging, Ukraine has the expertise. Kyiv Independent  The Times

Europe Seeks Last-Minute Support From Biden to Help Ukraine. European leaders are urging the Biden administration to maximize support for Ukraine before Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, fearing a quick Trump-brokered deal could cement Russian territorial gains. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Brussels to reassure allies, pledging to speed up the remainder of a $61 billion aid package, with tougher sanctions on Russia and North Korea also in the works. The U.S. is resisting European Union requests for Ukraine to use Western arms for strikes inside Russia, which leaders argue are crucial. The EU anticipates the need to bolster Ukraine as U.S. support may decrease under Trump. Bloomberg

ANALYSIS–Europe Can Take Over America’s Role in Ukraine. With Donald Trump likely to cut U.S. support for Ukraine, Europe faces the urgent task of filling the financial and military aid gap. Europe has already pledged over $133 billion since 2022, but would need to increase its commitments. European leaders are considering raising defense budgets to meet NATO’s spending goals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could lead this effort. Europe still depends on the U.S. for advanced surveillance technology, and European leaders may seek to incentivize Trump by committing to U.S. defense purchases. Ultimately, Europe must assume a proactive role in Ukraine or risk ceding influence to authoritarian actors like Vladimir Putin. Foreign Policy

Kyiv is 'cautiously optimistic' after discussing deep strikes in Russia with the US. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed "cautious optimism" after meeting Wednesday with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels, discussing potential long-range strikes on Russian targets. Kyiv has advocated for permission to conduct deep strikes inside Russia and for NATO membership, but allies fear escalation. Sybiha also confirmed a strategic timeline for U.S. military aid deliveries, supporting Ukraine’s battlefield planning before President-elect Donald Trump’s term begins in January.  Reuters

Satellite images reveal massive crop losses in war-torn Ukraine. Satellite imagery reveals a severe drop in Ukrainian crop production due to Russia's invasion, with wheat yields in the frontline city of Kherson decreasing by about 20%, totaling a loss of roughly 400,000 tons. Researchers analyzed satellite images from 2020 to 2022, using models to gauge crop health and growth. Key drivers of the crop decline include fertilizer shortages and farmers' abandonment of fields. Destruction of infrastructure, pollution, and land mines exacerbate the issue. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Ukraine’s 2024–25 wheat output to be 23 million tons, down from 33 million tons before the invasion. Science

How The Caspian Sea Became A Battlefield. Russia’s military use of the Caspian Sea for missile launches toward Ukraine since the 2022 invasion has raised environmental and health concerns for local residents. Missile launches from Russian naval ships and bombers, including Kalibr and X-55 missiles, have reportedly polluted the Caspian Sea, linked to dead fish and mass die-offs of Caspian seals. While Russia has not confirmed Caspian-launched attacks on Ukraine, environmental monitoring remains limited. RFE/RL

Ukrainians Abroad Sign Up To Fight. Ukraine has launched a recruitment initiative in Poland, urging Ukrainians abroad to join the fight against Russia. The Ukrainian Legion, set up for nationals living outside Ukraine, recently opened a recruitment office in Lublin, Poland, receiving around 700 applications so far. Recruits undergo initial training in Poland under a Ukraine-Poland security agreement, then continue at NATO bases. The Legion targets Europe-based Ukrainians via online outreach, aiming to bolster Ukraine's defenses amid intensified Russian advances. Barron’s

What do Trump’s first team picks mean for Ukraine?  Donald Trump’s initial team picks signal mixed prospects for Ukraine. While some appointments lean pro-Ukrainian, others reflect isolationist views or favor appeasing Russia. Trump's defense secretary choice, Fox News host Pete Hegseth, has expressed skepticism toward NATO and downplayed Russia’s threat. There is also wariness around Elon Musk, who was tapped for a government efficiency role, due to his past statements suggesting Ukraine should cede territories to Russia and his reported contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Vivek Ramaswamy, another appointment, has voiced strong criticism of Ukraine and NATO. Trump’s selection of Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Michael Waltz as national security advisor offer cautious optimism. Both have endorsed U.S. alliances, yet their recent alignment with Trump and criticism of Ukraine aid raises questions about future support for Ukraine. Notably absent from Trump’s team are staunch pro-Ukraine figures like Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. Kyiv Independent

Trump's Pentagon pick said that Putin probably wouldn't go much further if he wins. President-elect Donald Trump’s Defense Secretary pick, Pete Hegseth, has expressed skepticism about heavy U.S. involvement in Ukraine, doubting that Vladimir Putin would pursue further invasion beyond Ukraine’s borders. Hegseth warned against provoking Putin to consider nuclear options and criticized extensive U.S. military spending on prolonged conflicts, cautioning against a similar path in Ukraine. While Hegseth has criticized NATO’s strength, analysts suggest his influence may be limited. Trump is expected to control key decisions on Ukraine, potentially favoring cautious support unless peace talks falter. Business Insider

Elise Stefanik, Trump’s pick for UN ambassador, declines to stand by previous support for Ukraine joining NATO.  New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, chosen by President-elect Donald Trump for U.N. ambassador, now declines to affirm her prior advocacy for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Stefanik previously emphasized Ukraine’s NATO inclusion as crucial for stability, urging extensive military aid and recognizing Russia's actions as genocide. Her stance aligned with bipartisan support for Ukraine, underscored by Trump-era Javelin missile provisions. However, Stefanik’s position has recently shifted, mirroring Trump’s skepticism on U.S. involvement in Ukraine. She voted against the $61 billion aid package, citing domestic priorities, and declined to reaffirm her previous genocide statements on Russia’s actions in Ukraine. CNN

Trump taps Ukraine-skeptic Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Ukraine-skeptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence. Gabbard, a former Democrat and vocal critic of American involvement in the Ukraine war, previously blamed the Biden administration for failing to address “Russia’s legitimate security concerns.” Her statements have included warnings that U.S. policies could provoke a “forever war” with Russia. Trump praised her “fearless spirit” and commitment to “Peace through Strength.” Kyiv Independent

'Nobody believes Ukraine is going to get back Crimea,' says José Manuel Barroso. In an interview on Wednesday, former European Commission President José Manuel Durão Barroso acknowledged that the European Union no longer believes Ukraine will reclaim Crimea, despite Kyiv’s rightful claim. Barroso, who held office during Crimea’s 2014 annexation, described the EU’s limited response then as shaped by internal divisions and reluctance to impose stronger sanctions on Russia. He recounted private conversations with Vladimir Putin, who said he was seeking a dependent “vassal” in Ukraine. Barroso emphasized that Europe must firmly support Ukraine against Russia’s aggression to uphold global stability and prevent a symbolic victory for Putin’s ambitions. “We should do everything to help Ukraine to become a member” of the EU, he said. Euronews

With Scholz's government in shambles, conservative rival touts more decisive Ukraine strategy.  Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is positioned as a strong contender for chancellorship in Germany’s snap elections set for February 23, 2025. Merz pledges a sharper approach on Ukraine, criticizing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s caution. He proposes delivering Taurus missiles if Russia ignores an ultimatum to withdraw. Yet Merz faces challenges, including Germany’s economic strain, rising Ukraine skepticism, and possible U.S. policy shifts under Donald Trump. Despite his rhetoric, coalition dynamics and resource constraints may temper Merz’s ambitions, leaving Germany’s Ukraine support steady but unlikely to intensify swiftly if he takes office. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Allies to Push China on Russia-North Korea Ties at G-20. Ukraine’s allies plan to pressure China over North Korea’s support for Russia at the upcoming G20 summit, set to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. With North Korea reportedly having sent around 10,000 troops to support Russian forces in Ukraine, allies are increasingly concerned about the Russia-North Korea alliance’s implications for Indo-Pacific security. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has generally supported both Russia and North Korea, Beijing has kept silent on North Korea’s troop deployments. The summit will provide an opportunity for the U.S. and its allies to address China’s support for Russia in the ongoing war. Bloomberg 

Russia's new Iranian missiles could make the front lines in Ukraine far more dangerous.  Iran's supply of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, confirmed by the Pentagon, enhances Russia's options on the Ukrainian front lines, enabling them to target closer-range positions with less expensive weaponry. This tactic conserves Russia’s more sophisticated, longer-range missiles for higher-value targets. The Fath-360 and Ababil missiles, with ranges of 75 and 53 miles, respectively, allow Russia to increase pressure on frontline targets while expanding its overall missile arsenal. Russia's reliance on Iranian and North Korean arms underscores its production limitations. Business Insider

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 28 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed two civilians and injured at least 28. In Donetsk Oblast, two were killed and eight injured, while in Kharkiv, a drone strike wounded two. Kherson Oblast saw 15 injuries, and other regions, including Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv, reported attacks but no casualties. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 21 of 59 drones launched. Kyiv Independent

General Staff says that Ukrainian forces repel Russian bid to pierce defenses in the northeast. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attempt on Wednesday to breach defenses near Kupiansk in northeastern Ukraine, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Russian troops attacked in four waves with 15 armored vehicles, including tanks. Ukrainian defenders destroyed all enemy vehicles and a large portion of personnel. Some Russian forces reportedly wore Ukrainian uniforms, which the General Staff called a war crime. Reuters

South Korea says North Korean soldiers are fighting Ukraine forces. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service confirmed Wednesday that North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine. Thousands of North Korean troops were deployed to Russia's Kursk region over the past two weeks. This escalation follows a June defense treaty between Russia and North Korea, now ratified by Pyongyang. Reuters

Top Russian naval commander accused of war crimes is assassinated in Ukraine-planted car bombing. Valery Trankovsky, a top Russian naval commander accused of war crimes, was assassinated Wednesday by a Ukraine-planted car bomb in Sevastopol, Crimea, according to Ukrainian sources. Trankovsky, who led the 41st brigade of Russia’s Black Sea missile ships, allegedly ordered strikes on civilian areas in Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine justified the attack due to his role in these assaults. Russia labeled the assassination an act of terrorism without naming Trankovsky. This follows a pattern of targeted assassinations of pro-war Russian figures by Ukraine. Reuters

Russia Is Now Losing a Staggering 2,000 Troops a Day in Ukraine War.Russian forces are experiencing near-record losses, with 1,950 casualties reported in a single day, as they employ World War I-style tactics of human wave attacks and heavy artillery in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Vuhledar. Although these methods yield tactical gains, analysts warn they are unsustainable in a prolonged war and ineffective against NATO's advanced capabilities. Recent Russian advances come at an extremely high cost in personnel and equipment, raising questions about the Kremlin’s ability to endure such high attrition. The National Interest

Putin cuts payments to Russians for injuries in war against Ukraine. On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin approved revised compensation rules for Russian soldiers injured in the war against Ukraine, reducing payments for many. Under the new system, soldiers with severe injuries will receive around $30,000, those with light injuries $10,000, and for minor injuries, $1,000. Previously, the maximum amount was awarded without consideration of injury severity. Ukrainska Pravda

I can't imagine Trump abandoning Ukraine, Polish president says.Polish President Andrzej Duda asserted in a press conference that he believes President-elect Donald Trump will not allow Russia to destroy Ukraine, citing Trump’s aversion to losing and the substantial U.S. investment in Ukraine. Duda emphasized that Trump, soon accountable to American taxpayers, would likely see the preservation of Ukraine as essential. He described Trump as a “born fighter” who "does not like to lose," predicting Trump’s approach to Ukraine will reflect this competitive spirit. Kyiv Independent

Abandoning Ukraine would be a bigger US failure than Afghanistan, former top British diplomat says. Former UK Foreign Secretary William Hague warned that abandoning Ukraine would be a greater humiliation for the U.S. than the chaotic 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. Hague argued that allowing Ukraine’s “collapse” under Donald Trump’s administration would damage U.S. credibility. The Telegraph 

Deported Ukrainian children are Russia's future army recruits, ombudsman says. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcefully deported to Russia, according to Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets. These children have had their identities altered and undergo military training, suggesting plans to integrate them into Russia’s future military ranks. Lubinets describes the deportations as genocide, emphasizing forced cultural erasure. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children's Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for their roles in these actions, which Kyiv can only stop by regaining full control over Ukrainian territory. Euronews

As War Grinds On, Ukrainians Donate Less to Their Military.  Private donations to Ukraine’s military have dropped sharply, reflecting economic strain and war fatigue among Ukrainians. Once robust, contributions to major charities now require three times the effort to achieve previous levels of fundraising, with some fundraisers reporting tenfold decreases. Rising costs from power outages and economic hardships have forced many Ukrainians to prioritize personal needs. Concerns over Donald Trump’s election and possible U.S. aid cuts further dampen donation enthusiasm. Despite this downturn, donations remain essential, supplementing Ukraine's military budget and filling gaps for equipment and supplies not covered by state funding. Bloomberg 

Ukraine expects to avoid monetizing debt markets in 2025.  Ukraine’s central bank governor, Andriy Pyshnyi, expects Ukraine to avoid “monetary financing” in 2025, meaning the central bank likely won't need to buy government bonds to support the budget. Instead, domestic debt markets, international aid, and internal resources will cover funding. This outlook is supported by a recent $1.1 billion International Monetary Fund loan installment and other anticipated international loans. Ukraine’s proposed 2025 budget emphasizes defense spending, with parliamentary approval expected by Dec. 1. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Nov. 13. The Kremlin aims to set preconditions for "peace" talks with Ukraine before Donald Trump’s inauguration, signaling no change in its objective of full Ukrainian capitulation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s dismissal of a proposed frontline freeze underscores Russia’s uncompromising stance on Ukraine. Ukrainian security services reportedly assassinated a senior Russian Black Sea Fleet official in occupied Crimea. Vladimir Putin and Russian oil executives rejected a proposed merger of Russia’s top oil firms, revealing possible internal factional conflicts. South Korean and U.S. intelligence confirmed North Korean troops are actively engaged alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces increasingly rely on refurbished vehicles to replace combat losses, a strategy unlikely to be sustainable.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian troops regained ground near Chasiv Yar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: War in Ukraine may only intensify under Trump. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba argues that Donald Trump’s approach may escalate, not end, the war in Ukraine. Kuleba criticizes Western assumptions that concessions to Russia could bring peace, stating that Vladimir Putin views conquering Ukraine as a legacy-defining mission. Trump cannot afford to appear weak, risking a failed strategy and domestic unrest in Ukraine if aid is reduced. Kuleba asserts that only a strategy compelling Russia to recognize Ukraine’s independence can achieve lasting peace, with NATO membership as a key deterrent. The Economist

Opinion: Trump’s MAGA advisers are setting him up for failure in Ukraine. Josh Rogin argues that Donald Trump’s advisors are pushing him toward a risky Ukraine policy that would pressure Kyiv into a disadvantageous deal with Russia, potentially tainting Trump’s legacy. Trump’s MAGA allies view Ukraine as symbolic of U.S. “globalist” interventions they oppose, urging him to cut aid, which could weaken Ukraine's position and empower Vladimir Putin. Rogin suggests Trump could instead build strategic leverage by supporting Ukraine and achieving a balanced resolution that preserves U.S. interests and international alliances. Washington Post

Opinion: A new alignment is emerging in Europe one week after Trump's election. Sylvie Kauffmann observes that Donald Trump's re-election has triggered a swift realignment in Europe due to the threat of a Russian-Ukrainian settlement that might sideline European interests. Poland, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is mobilizing a pro-Ukrainian coalition among motivated nations; France is renewing efforts for a strategic European awakening; while Germany grapples with its political crisis and contemplates a future less reliant on the U.S. European leaders fear Trump may resolve Russia’s war on Ukraine without their involvement, jeopardizing European security. Tusk has engaged with leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to address the potential consequences of U.S. disengagement. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban positions himself as the leader of the peace camp and a key intermediary between Vladimir Putin and Trump. Le Monde

Opinion: A change of course is ahead on Ukraine.  U.S. support for Ukraine could shift dramatically when Donald Trump assumes office in January, with Trump’s campaign suggesting he could swiftly end the war—likely by pressuring Ukraine into a Moscow-favorable peace. Many Republicans, including Vice President-elect JD Vance, oppose further U.S. aid, viewing Ukraine as a European responsibility. Constrained by weak governments, European leaders may struggle to compensate for potential U.S. withdrawal. Meanwhile, rising internal Ukrainian resistance to further conscription amid uncertain military progress could push Kyiv to consider compromises. Trump’s foreign policy team, including potential Secretary of State Marco Rubio, introduces further uncertainty. The Irish Times

Opinion: Trump could actually be good for Europe. Sławomir Sierakowski argues that Donald Trump’s return could push Europe to become more self-reliant in defense, potentially reducing its dependence on the U.S. Trump's unpredictable leadership, Sierakowski suggests, might serve as a wake-up call for the European Union to invest in its own security infrastructure, a shift long overdue since the U.S. began pivoting away from Europe during the Obama years. With Eastern European countries like Poland already increasing their defense budgets, Sierakowski envisions a stronger, united Europe capable of handling its own defense, led by figures like Poland's Donald Tusk and Italy's Giorgia Meloni. Kyiv Independent

AMERICAS

Trump nominates Gabbard, Gaetz for key national security posts.  President-elect Donald Trump Wednesday picked Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, to be his director of national intelligence. Gabbard, who served with the National Guard in Iraq and Kuwait, switched to the Republican party earlier this year.  is a longtime critic of American overseas engagements generally. In 2017, she stirred fierce criticism by objecting to the Obama Administration's campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and by meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Gabbard drew sharp criticism after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine for comments seen as sympathetic to Moscow.  Trump’s choice for Attorney General is Florida congressman Matt Gaetz.  “Matt will end Weaponized Government, protect our Borders, dismantle Criminal Organizations and restore Americans’ badly-shattered Faith and Confidence in the Justice Department,” Trump said. Last year, the Justice Department investigated Gaetz for in a sex trafficking probe and closed the case without charging him. This year, he was under investigation by the House ethics committee over allegations of sexual misconduct, illegal drug use and accepting improper gifts. The committee was preparing to release its report when Gaetz stopped the process Wednesday by abruptly resigning from the House. Gaetz’ Senate confirmation is not guaranteed. Axios reported that Trump’s announcement of his intention to nominate Gaetz for A.G. “was met with audible gasps by House Republicans during their conference meeting this afternoon.” On Wednesday, Senate Republicans elected John Thune of South Dakota, a respected mainstream senator, as their new leader, rejecting Florida’s Rick Scott, favored by Trump.  New York Times  Washington Post  Axios  CNBC

Man arrested in Cambodia for leaking secrets about Israel’s planned attack on Iran.  Asif William Rahman was arrested in Cambodia on Tuesday on charges of leaking top secret classified documents, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.  The documents contained information about Israel’s intention to conduct a military strike on Iran. Rahman was indicted last week in federal court in Virginia on two counts of willful transmission of national defense information. Documents unsealed in the case said he had a top-secret security clearance and access to sensitive compartmented information. The Journal quoted sources as saying that he was a CIA employee. The leak in question involved material from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency that appeared on Telegram and X, posted by a pro-Iran news outlet, which said it received them from an anonymous source.  Wall Street Journal

Trump's team reportedly making a list of Pentagon officials to fire.  Members of the Trump transition team are drawing up a list of military officers to be fired, Reuters reported Wednesday. The list may include the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The story said planning for firings is at an early stage and could change. Nor is it certain that Trump will approve the plan. Reuters 

Trump and Putin’s Avowed Personal Rapport Masks Deeper Tensions. Donald Trump’s warm rhetoric towards Vladimir Putin belies the complexities of their relationship as Trump prepares to reengage with Russia on Ukraine. Despite friendly exchanges, Trump’s record shows limited success with Putin, who now seeks major Ukrainian territorial concessions and NATO assurances. Trump’s plans to boost U.S. oil production, ramp up pressure on North Korea, and strengthen alliances with Israel pose challenges to Russia’s economic and strategic interests. Putin’s growing alliance with American adversaries, including China and Iran, reflects his desire to shift global power away from U.S. influence. Though Trump aims to broker peace, Putin’s battlefield gains and demands limit diplomatic options. Wall Street Journal

Biden and Xi to meet in Peru. President Joe Biden will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Lima Saturday on the sidelines of   the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.  “Transitions are uniquely consequential moments in geopolitics,” Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said Wednesday.  ”They’re a time when competitors and adversaries can see possible opportunity. And so part of what President Biden will communicate is that we need to maintain stability, clarity, predictability through this transition between the United States and China.”   Another senior official told reporters, “The President will express deep concern over the PRC’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as the deployment of over 10,000 [North Korean] troops to Russia, where they have begun engaging in combat operations with Russian forces.  We are increasingly concerned about the consequences for longer-term stability in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific of this deployment.” The official also said, “the President will warn that cyber pre-positioning on civilian critical infrastructure and engaging in reckless attacks against our critical networks are unacceptable.  These actions have the potential to destabilize the bilateral relationship and lead to an even broader de-risking away from PRC technology.” Associated Press  The White House 

Taiwan’s ex-president Tsai to travel to Canada next week. Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen intends to visit Canada next week, marking a significant trip by a prominent Taiwan leader amid rising Chinese military threats. Tsai, who stepped down in May, will attend the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, where she is expected to speak. Though Canada lacks official diplomatic ties with Taipei due to China’s claims over the self-governing island, economic and political exchanges have grown as Beijing ramps up its intimidation tactics. Last month, Tsai visited several European nations, with the strong support of Taiwan’s current president, Lai Ching-te, who referred to her as the "best spokesperson" for the sovereign island. Her international visits always draw regional diplomatic attention, especially given China’s intense military drills around Taiwan in response to past foreign visits. Reuters 

Two patients killed after Doctors Without Borders ambulance in Haiti is attacked by police, vigilante group.Two young patients were killed in Haiti on Monday after a Doctors Without Borders (MSF) ambulance was attacked by a vigilante group and police in Port-au-Prince. The ambulance, which was carrying three gunshot-wounded patients and medical staff, was stopped by law enforcement officers, who tried to arrest the patients before escorting the ambulance to another hospital. Vigilantes and police officers then “surrounded the ambulance, slashed the tires, and tear-gassed MSF personnel inside the vehicle to force them out,” before taking the patients “a short distance away, outside the hospital grounds” and executing at least two of them. After being assaulted and threatened, the aid workers were held captive for over four hours. This attack reflects Haiti’s escalating violence, with vigilante groups rising in response to widespread gang control. Doctors Without Borders condemned the bloodshed, urging respect for medical care and personnel amid the Caribbean nation’s severe security crisis. Washington Post CNN Reuters The Guardian  

U.S. envoy says Mexico isn’t safe, lambasts nation for having ‘closed the doors’ on security cooperation.U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar on Wednesday hotly criticized Mexico for its refusal to accept U.S. aid to combat drug cartels, its rampant corruption, and widespread violence. He accused it of “closing the doors” to security cooperation and downplaying its violent crime crisis by continually behaving as if “there is no problem.” Salazar pointed at recent, grisly murders in Sinaloa, where multiple dismembered bodies were found on the roadside, as evidence of the escalating problem. He condemned former President López Obrador's “hugs not bullets” policy, which new President Claudia Sheinbaum has not abandoned despite its ineffectiveness, although soldiers appear more willing to confront criminals under her administration. Tensions in the nation have surged after the U.S. arrested two Sinaloa cartel leaders, sparking a territorial war and prompting Mexico to blame Washington and halt anti-drug cooperation. Salazar also castigated cuts to police funding, as well as Mexico's refusal of $32 million in U.S. aid for police training. The timing of Salazar’s criticism coincided with Donald Trump’s re-election, who has been vocal in his criticism of Mexico. Associated Press Reuters Barron's 

FBI’s Chinese hacking probe reveals ‘broad and significant’ spying.  The FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency disclosed Wednesday that their investigation of the People's Republic of China has revealed a “broad and significant cyber espionage campaign” focused on commercial telecommunications infrastructure. The agencies said they have determined that China-affiliated actors have “compromised networks at multiple telecommunications companies to enable the theft of customer call records data, the compromise of private communications of a limited number of individuals who are primarily involved in government or political activity, and the copying of certain information that was subject to U.S. law enforcement requests pursuant to court orders.” They said the extent of Chinese cyber-spying isn’t yet known, but “we expect our understanding of these compromises to grow as the investigation continues.”  Associated Press FBI  

Bomber kills himself after attempting to enter Brazil's highest court, just days before G20.  A man detonated explosives outside Brazil's Supreme Court in Brasilia on Wednesday evening, killing himself and raising security concerns ahead of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, in addition to a visit from China’s President Xi Jinping. Two explosions occurred, one near the court’s parking lot and another by the court building, where the man’s body was found. Authorities believe the man attempted to enter the court before the blast. Vice Governor Celina Leao suggested it might be a “lone wolf” attack, though the police are investigating for any additional explosives. Supreme Court justices and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were safely evacuated. Reuters New York Times BBC CNN The Guardian  

EUROPE

Georgian Opposition Moves To Leave Parliament In Protest At Alleged Election Fraud. Georgia’s pro-European opposition has withdrawn from parliament, rejecting the results of the disputed October 26 elections, which it claims were marred by fraud and Russian interference. Key opposition leaders, including Tina Bokuchava of the United National Movement (ENM) and Nika Gvaramia of the Coalition for Change, filed an appeal with the Central Election Commission to cancel their mandates. Daily protests in Tbilisi continue, with President Salome Zurabishvili calling for fresh elections. Meanwhile, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which won with 54%, has threatened legal action against ENM, accusing it of treason, as European Union criticism grows over Georgia's democratic backslide. RFE/RL

Turkish trade minister claims the nation expects BRICS to offer partner status. Turkey expects to receive “partner country” status with the BRICS alliance soon, after applying for full membership earlier this year amid efforts to strengthen ties with both the East and West. Trade Minister Omer Bolat announced that Ankara’s application was reviewed at the recent BRICS summit in Russia. He also dismissed claims that India blocked Turkey’s membership due to its ties with Pakistan. The BRICS bloc, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa in 2006, now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. Turkey’s interest in the group aligns with President Erdogan’s push for a more independent foreign policy, as well as dissatisfaction with slow E.U. membership progress. BRICS aims to amplify emerging economies' voices and reform Western-dominated international institutions like the U.N., IMF, and World Bank. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters

Hundreds gather in Paris to protest pro-Israel gala, as Foreign Ministry denounces Israeli Finance Minister. Protests flared up in Paris on Wednesday as hundreds assembled to protest against a gala organized by far-right supporters of Israel, intended to raise funds for the Israeli military. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, known for his support of Israeli settlements and controversial statements, was invited as a guest but ultimately did not attend. The event, called “Israel is Forever,” sparked backlash from unions, local groups, and left-wing parties, resulting in protests lambasting it as a “gala of hatred and shame.” France’s Foreign Ministry condemned Smotrich’s recent comments on the West Bank, stressing its support for a two-state solution. Amid heightened tensions related to Middle Eastern conflicts, authorities deployed significant security for the event, as well as for an upcoming Israel-France soccer match, though the protests remained mostly peaceful. Associated Press Euronews NBC 

Dutch police detain pro-Palestinian demonstrators flouting Amsterdam protest ban. Amsterdam police on Wednesday detained dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters rallying in defiance of a ban on protests imposed in the aftermath of violent clashes during a football match between Ajax and Israeli club Maccabi Tel Aviv. The demonstrators, chanting “Free Palestine” and “Stop killing innocent people,” were surrounded by riot police and taken into custody. The ban, along with expanded police powers, was introduced after Maccabi fans allegedly attacked a taxi and burned a Palestinian flag, sparking confrontations. The unrest reflects rising tensions and increased antisemitic incidents in the Netherlands since the Gaza conflict began. Additional arrests were also made following riots in a predominantly immigrant neighborhood. Reuters 

Greek, Turkish coast guards seek to deepen cooperation against migrant trafficking. Senior Greek and Turkish coast guard officials met for the first time in five years to enhance cooperation on curbing illegal migration routes into Europe. The meeting, held on Greece's Aegean island of Chios, focused on joint efforts to control migrant flows and share intelligence on migrant smuggling networks. The meeting reflects warming relations between Athens and Ankara, following previous tensions over gas exploration rights. This year, over 52,000 migrants have arrived in Greece, mainly by sea from Turkey, marking an increase from 2023. Some migrants are also attempting longer routes from Libya, with smugglers charging high fees for these perilous journeys. Associated Press 

MIDDLE EAST

Turkish leader hopeful about reconciliation with Syria.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed hopes for a reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar Assad, to restore long-strained relations between the two countries and stabilize Syria. Speaking to reporters this week, Erdogan said he believes that normalizing ties could help protect Syria’s “territorial integrity” and address security concerns along Turkey’s border, especially from Kurdish militant groups. Relations between Ankara and Damascus deteriorated during Syria’s civil war, after Turkey backed opposition forces attempting to oust Assad. Recently, Turkey has pursued rapprochement to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees and counter Kurdish threats, with Russia mediating discussions. However, Assad demands that Turkish forces withdraw from northern Syria for any normalization. Despite some tensions, Erdogan remains open to cross-border operations for Ankara’s security and seeks a buffer zone along Syria’s border.  Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan has no arms list for U.S. but is eager for talks, say security officials.Top Taiwanese officials say that Taiwan does not yet have a specific, “concrete list” of new arms requests for the incoming Republican administration but is eager to strengthen its defense capabilities through discussions with the U.S. According to a recent report from the Financial Times, Taipei is considering a significant U.S. arms purchase to show its commitment to self-defense amid ongoing Chinese military pressure. Since 2016, Taiwan's defense spending has risen by 80%. Regular talks with U.S. officials and think tanks assess Taiwan’s defense readiness, including potential expansions of its drone fleet to counter Chinese threats. Reuters

Russia’s Shoigu attends China’s premier military showcase in Zhuhai.  Russian defense official Sergei Shoigu attended China’s premier military showcase in Zhuhai on Thursday, demonstrating the unity between Moscow and Beijing as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stalls. Shoigu observed advanced Chinese and Russian military aircraft and hardware, including China’s J22 and J35A stealth fighters. While China has not directly supported Russia militarily, it has supplied dual-use technologies and remains a key buyer of Russian oil and gas, helping to offset sanctions. Since signing a "no limits" partnership in early 2022, the two allies have strengthened ties through joint military exercises and aligned foreign policies challenging the U.S.-led Western order. Associated Press Reuters 

Malaysia to lodge protest with Philippines over controversial maritime laws infringing on Sabah. Malaysia’s deputy foreign minister on Thursday announced the nation’s intention to send a protest note to the Philippines, over new maritime laws that impact overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, specifically concerning Malaysia’s state of Sabah on Borneo island. The protest follows a similar complaint from China over Manila’s recent Maritime Zones Act and Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act, which aim to strengthen the Philippines’ maritime claims. Kuala Lumpur stressed the government’s commitment to defending Sabah’s sovereignty. The Philippines has a longstanding but rarely discussed claim to eastern Sabah, which its Supreme Court upheld as never formally relinquished. Reuters

Indonesian president reasserts commitment to safeguarding sovereignty in South China Sea. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday emphasized his dedication to safeguarding Jakarta’s sovereignty while favoring partnerships over conflicts, particularly regarding the fiercely disputed South China Sea. His comments in Washington followed the country’s recent maritime agreement with China, which has raised domestic concerns over a possible shift in Indonesia’s non-claimant stance on the disputed waters. While Prabowo affirmed Indonesia does not recognize Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, the agreement’s language on “joint development in areas of overlapping claims” has sparked debate about Indonesia's rights within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Prabowo, who is pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy, discussed the South China Sea with U.S. President Joe Biden and will attend upcoming APEC and G20 summits. Reuters 

Bangladesh denounced by rights groups for canceling accreditation of 167 journalists.  Bangladesh's interim government has revoked press accreditations for 167 journalists, sparking condemnation from editors and rights groups who view it as a threat to press freedom. The Press Information Department canceled the accreditations in three phases, citing a 2022 policy but failing to give specific reasons. The Editors’ Council warned that this move mirrors the oppressive practices of the previous Hasina administration, which was criticized for stifling dissent and press freedoms. Without accreditation, journalists are barred from government ministries, limiting their access to official information. Rights groups, including Reporters Without Borders and Transparency International, consider this action as an indicator of authoritarianism. Despite Yunus’s public support for media freedom, harassment and arrests of journalists continue, raising concerns over press freedom under the new government. Associated Press 

12 insurgents killed by Pakistani security forces in separate raids. Pakistani security forces conducted two separate raids against insurgent hideouts on Wednesday, killing 12 militants and injuring six. In volatile Balochistan, four insurgents were killed in a raid days after a suicide bomber from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked a Quetta train station, killing 26. The BLA, a separatist group seeking independence from Pakistan, claimed responsibility for targeting soldiers at the station. In North Waziristan, soldiers raided a hideout of the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and killed eight militants. The TTP is allied with Afghanistan's Taliban.  Associated Press 

Palau’s pro-Taiwan president secures second term. Incumbent Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr. officially claimed re-election victory on Wednesday, after defeating his brother-in-law Tommy Remengesau. Citizens voting last week focused on economic issues and the cost of living, while globally, the election reflected surging U.S.-China tensions in the Pacific. During his first term, Whipps strengthened U.S. military interests in Palau, renewing a Compact of Free Association that grants the U.S. military access in exchange for $890 million in aid over 20 years. Palau, one of Taiwan's few diplomatic allies, has a population of just 18,000, but is located in strategic waters between the Philippines and the American military base on Guam. Whipps Jr received congratulations from leaders in Australia and Taiwan, indicating continued collaboration in tourism, infrastructure, and regional stability. The Guardian Al Jazeera Reuters  

AFRICA

Niger’s ruling junta suspends French aid group as relations with West sour.Niger’s military junta has banned the French aid group Acted and the local organization APBE from operating in the country, without providing a specific reason as to why. Acted, which has been active in Niger since 2010, had focused on supporting people affected by jihadist violence and natural disasters. This move comes as Niger’s government distances itself from Western allies and shifts toward Russia for security support. Since a 2023 coup, Niger has expelled French troops and diplomats, and recently, the U.S. military also withdrew following the junta’s termination of an operational agreement, ending Niger’s role as a key Western partner in combating jihadist groups in the restive Sahel region. Associated Press Euronews Firstpost

Sudan lets key aid crossing from Chad remain open for Darfur, as famine and violence rises.  The Sudanese government announced on Wednesday that it will keep the Adre border crossing with Chad open for three more months, in order to allow humanitarian aid into Darfur, where conflict has generated severe humanitarian needs. The decision follows recent discussions with U.N. agencies and aid organizations, and U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric welcomed the development. Since the crossing reopened in August, over 337 trucks have transported essential supplies to Darfur, reaching around 1.4 million people. However, the U.N. emphasized that additional routes are needed to meet growing demands. The ongoing conflict, which began in April 2023, has displaced over 14 million people, and aid groups continue urging continuous support to prevent starvation, especially among children. Associated Press Reuters 

Mali detains politician for “insulting a foreign head of state,” after commenting on Burkina Faso’s ruling junta.Mali’s ruling junta on Wednesday arrested prominent politician Issa Kaou N’Djim for allegedly insulting the military leaders of Burkina Faso’s, a close ally of Mali. N’Djim, who previously supported Mali’s military leader, criticized Burkina Faso’s rulers on Joliba TV News, claiming that they fabricated evidence of a coup plot in September. According to an employee of the court system, it is a crime in Mali to insult a foreign head of state. Following his remarks, he was detained and sent to Bamako’s main prison. N’Djim, a former vice president of Mali’s National Transitional Council, has advocated for a return to democracy, and in 2021 was sentenced to six-months in prison for blasting the military regime on social media. His arrest reflects the junta’s crackdown on dissent, with Amnesty International calling for his release amidst worsening security and growing authoritarianism in Mali and its allies in the Sahel region. Associated Press 

Nigeria authorizes $1.2 billion deal with Chinese state-owned firm to upgrade gas plant. In the latest instance of Chinese influence on the African continent, Nigeria has signed a $1.2 billion agreement with Chinese company CNCEC to revitalize a gas processing facility, amid efforts to boost the country's aluminum production. The deal, involving Nigeria’s BFI Group, will restore a gas plant at the Aluminum Smelter Company of Nigeria, potentially positioning the nation as a top aluminum producer for domestic and global markets. This collaboration marks the latest in deepening Nigeria-China economic ties since 2016. Despite its oil wealth, Africa’s most populous country is facing significant economic struggles, including high poverty, record inflation, and a weakened currency. Economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu have triggered public protests against rising hardships. Associated Press Reuters 

Moscow claims African, ex-Soviet nations interested in Russian mpox vaccine.Russia's consumer and health watchdog has claimed that several African and former Soviet countries have shown interest in purchasing Moscow’s Orthopoxvac vaccine, which was developed for smallpox and mpox by the Vektor laboratory in Siberia. The vaccine, registered in Russia in 2022, has reportedly proven safe and effective in trials, though results remain unpublished. The interest comes amid an mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has spread regionally. The outbreak prompted a global health emergency declaration by the WHO. While some governments have not yet responded to questions about Russia’s claim, or denied efforts to acquire the Russian vaccine, countries such as the U.S. and France are donating other mpox vaccines. Russia has had only two reported mpox cases, and the vaccine is not approved outside the country. Reuters  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

OpenAI proposes U.S-led AI alliance, investments to compete with China.  OpenAI, a leading AI innovator, has proposed that the U.S. and neighboring countries join forces to create the infrastructure needed for continued AI development, especially in competition with China.  The proposal focuses on a “North American Compact for AI,” a collaborative effort that would open access to talent, funding, and supply chains for the technology’s development.  Follow-on steps could include expansion to create a “global network of U.S. allies and partners.”  OpenAI’s policy blueprint was described at an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  The plan recommends that the U.S. support the build out of new energy infrastructure and establish “AI Economic Zones.”  The company cited the “national security imperative” of promoting the technology “to protect our nation and our allies against a surging China by offering an AI shaped by democratic values, promoting individual choice and benefiting the most people possible.”  Chris Lehane, OpenAI’s vice president of global affairs, said AI infrastructure needs are “going to be one of the subject areas in the next Congress and with the next administration that folks are going to want to work on because the stakes are just so big.”  Bloomberg Center for Strategic and International Studies

Leading AI firms rethinking strategy in face of diminishing model performance. Performance drops in the next generation of AI models is of growing concerns to the sector’s leading firms, including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic.  For example, OpenAI’s latest model, Orion, reportedly has not met desired performance markers, falling short in response to coding questions that it had specifically trained on.  Diminishing returns have been experienced by other AI leaders, including Google and Anthropic.  Several reasons are cited for the apparent plateauing in AI models, including the scarcity of new content for model training such as coding data.  The failure to reach projected performance standards sharpens the focus on the huge costs of AI development.  Looking ahead to the hoped-for advance to artificial general intelligence (AGI), Margaret Mitchell, chief ethics scientist at Hugging Face, remarked that “the AGI bubble is bursting a little bit.”  Mitchell said that experimentation with “different training approaches” may be needed to reach desired goals.  Another issue facing AI firms is their approach to older AI models, specifically if they should continue to release incremental improvements, or embark on the development of significantly costlier new models with small performance gains.  Bloomberg

New device compromises indicate return of Volt Typhoon botnet operations. China’s Volt Typhoon hacking campaign, researchers say, has begun to rebuild its botnet malware following the group’s disruption by law enforcement early this year.  SecurityScorecard analysts say Volt Typhoon threat actors focuses on hacking SOHO routers and network devices with the goal of installing malware that creates hidden communications and proxy channels.  An attempted revival by Volt Typhoon in February apparently failed, but recent reports indicate the group exploited a zero-day vulnerability in August.  SecurityScorecard reports that Volt Typhoon has targeted outdated Cisco and Netgear routers with its rebuilt botnet, resulting in “significant” compromises of targeted devices in recent weeks.  Researchers say Volt Typhoon has exploited a new network of compromised devices primarily in Asia.  They told BleepingComputer "we don't know specifically what weakness or flaw is being exploited. However with the devices being end of life, updates are no longer provided."  The compromise of outdated devices indicates to observers that Volt Typhoon is returning  to global operations.  While the scale of botnet operations is not close to earlier campaigns, the Chinese hackers are expected to persist in new attacks.  BleepingComputer

Germany taking steps to fend off Russia-linked cyberattacks before elections. German interior minister Nancy Faeser warned Tuesday that the country must prepare for cybersecurity threats against the federal snap elections in February.   Cyber meddling from Russia, in particular, Faeser said, heightens the need to counter “threats like hacker attacks, manipulation, and disinformation."  While noting that Germany did not encounter significant cybersecurity incidents during recent E.U. and state elections, Faeser added “the cybersecurity situation remains tense. But at the same time, we see that resilience against attacks is increasing.”  Also on Tuesday, the German Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) reported that malware variants targeting German systems increased 26 percent in the past year.  The BSI said that China-linked APT15 and Russia-linked APT29 threat actors focused on government services while North Korea’s APT43 targeted research and educational institutions as well as weapons and ammunition manufacturers.  Meanwhile, German cyber ambassador Regine Grienberger pointed to a sharp increase in Russia-linked cyberattacks, saying that Russian ransomware gangs are actively targeting private companies and public services “every day or every week.”  TheRecord   Reuters

North Korean hackers launch malware attacks on macOS applications.  North Korea-linked hackers have been observed embedding malware in macOS applications by exploiting an open-source software development kit.  Researchers from the software firm Jamf disclosed that in October the malware was uncovered on VirusTotal, an online file analysis tool.  Despite the presence of malicious code, the online scanning tool indicated that samples were clean.  The techniques and domains linked to the malware, researchers say, “align closely” with North Korean hacking operations.  The discovered campaigns mounted intrusions against cryptocurrency services with infrastructure similar to that of North Korea’s Lazarus Group.  Jamf said it is unclear if the malware was actively used in a campaign or simply represented a new method of attack. The malware was able to bypass Apple’s notarization process, which ensures macOS applications are free from known malware and harmful code.  The domain the malware pointed to was involved in an earlier campaign aimed at infecting blockchain engineers using macOS-specific malware.  CyberScoop

Cybersecurity agencies identify leading vulnerabilities exploited in 2023. Cybersecurity authorities from the FBI, NSA, and Five Eyes intelligence alliance have released the top 15 vulnerabilities exploited by threat actors in 2023.  The majority of the vulnerabilities were initially exploited as zero-days.  A joint announcement released on Tuesday urged organizations around the globe to patch identified security flaws and put in place patch management systems to reduce exposure to possible attacks.  Zero-day attacks in 2023 more than doubled over 2022.  The report also noted that 12 of the top 15 vulnerabilities were addressed last year, reinforcing the agencies’ warning that threat actors are focusing their attacks on zero-days.  The leading vulnerability was identified as CVE-2023-3519, a code injection flaw that allows attackers to gain remote code execution on unpatched servers.  That vulnerability led to backdoor exploitation of 2,000 Citrix servers worldwide by mid-August 2023.  Jeffrey Dickerson, NSA's cybersecurity technical director, said that "all of these vulnerabilities are publicly known, but many are in the top 15 list for the first time."  Bleeping Computer   CISA

Chinese tech firms brace for added curbs following TSMC chip service suspension. In the wake of a halt in advanced processing services to China by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Chinese chip design firms reportedly are bracing for expansion of the ban to include central processing units, autonomous-driving chips, and other high demand products.  According to Taiwan research firm TrendForce, TSMC is evaluating its “know-your-client” process and product-review criteria, and considering additional restrictions.  TrendForce added that TSMC’s next move “will depend on whether the U.S. Department of Commerce issues additional export control regulations or adds specific customers to the Entity List.”  Mainland China accounted for 11 percent of TSMC’s third-quarter revenue.  A Chinese robotics firm said the EV industry is gloomy because many Chinese companies lack alternative manufacturers to TSMC’s 7nm services.  Zhao Haijun, the CEO of China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co. (SMIC), said that due to U.S. export restrictions the company has been unable to produce “competitive” GPU products.  South China Morning Post

DoD announces new tranche added to Replicator drone initiative. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announced Wednesday that a new tranche of drones, including one in active service in Ukraine, will be added to the DoD Replicator program.  The new tranche will include air and maritime devices, a DoD statement said, in addition to “integrated software enablers that will enhance the autonomy and resilience of other Replicator systems.”   The expanded list includes Anduril’s Ghost-X, which Ukrainian troops have used since Russia’s 2022 invasion.  Because of the platform’s exposure to Russian electronic warfare (EW) devices, Anduril has developed techniques to overcome similar high-tech defenses.  Included among Anduril’s innovations are flying mesh networks that allow drone swarms to swap data in the face of heavy EW interference.  In addition to frontline drones, the Replicator program is focused on the development of software to enhance data collection and collaboration between UAS platforms.  Doug Beck, the director of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), remarked that the Replicator initiative aims to ensure “we can adopt commercial best practices to iteratively develop, test, and ultimately field autonomous systems, both individually and collectively, at scale.”  DefenseOne

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