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Thursday, May 4, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Secretary of State Blinken Hopes to Reschedule Visit to China. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that he hopes to reschedule a visit to China this year.  His planned trip to China in February was canceled over the Chinese spy balloon incident.  Speaking to the Washington Post, Blinken said he thinks it is important to “re-establish regular lines of communication at all levels and across our government,” adding to recent U.S. efforts to resume engagement with Beijing. Reuters 

US Senate Democrats Initiate Efforts to Counter Chinese Competition. Senate Democrats announced on Wednesday that they are planning to introduce legislation that will boost the US’s ability to face China on issues such as technology and security. The bill, known as “China Competition 2.0” seeks to limit US capital from reaching Chinese companies, limit the flow of technology to China and reportedly has measures to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The bill will need Republican support to become law.  Though the issue of US-China competition does have bi-partisan support in general, current tensions related to the budget could prevent the new legislation from getting through Congress, according to some Republican lawmakers.  Reuters 

China Invites US Climate Envoy John Kerry for Discussion. U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said Wednesday that China has invited him to visit “in the near term” for climate talks despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing.  Kerry said that President Joe Biden has authorized the meeting but that the timing and certain issues, such as a call for China to move forward with plans to reduce methane emissions and transition from coal, must be resolved.   China suspended climate talks after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year and attempts to resume engagement have been stymied by issues like the Chinese spy balloon incident.  Reuters

US Offers $10 Million for Info on Russian Allegedly Tied to Crime Group.  The State Department says the U.S. is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of a Russian citizen who is accused of operating a stolen credit card criminal operation.  The charges, which were unsealed in federal court in New York yesterday, accuse Denis Gennadievich Kulkov of four counts of fraud, computer intrusion and money laundering.  There was no mention of any statement by Kulkov or his attorney.  Reuters 

US Homeland Security Secretary to Visit US-Mexico Border.  U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas will visit the Texas border with Mexico this week.  The visit comes ahead of an expected increase in illegal immigration following the lifting of Covid-19 related restrictions.  Reuters 

Canada’s Trudeau Claims Canadian Spy Agency Withheld Info About China's Threats to MP.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (C.S.I.S.) chose not to inform a Canadian politician about threats China made against him and his family as the agency deemed them not significant enough to warrant the disclosure.  Trudeau says he has instructed C.S.I.S. to immediately inform lawmakers of similar threats in the future.  The incident became public after Michael Chong, a member of Canada's parliament, said he found out about the threats from a newspaper.  Chinese officials reportedly sought information about Chong’s family members living in Hong Kong.  China’s Toronto consulate-general denied Trudeau’s claims as “purely baseless” and urged Canadian media and politicians against “spreading rumors and smearing.”  Reuters South China Morning Post

Western Europe

NATO Highlights Increased Russian Threat to Undersea Cables, Pipelines.  NATO is warning that Russia may sabotage undersea infrastructure to target countries providing military support to Ukraine.  NATO Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security David Cattler told reporters on Wednesday that Russia is “more active than we have seen them in years in this domain,” citing increased Russian patrols in the Atlantic and North and Baltic Seas and the Russian military’s ongoing underwater reconnaissance efforts to map out allied critical infrastructure “both on land and on the seabed.”  Cattler added that the risk is at an all-time high, saying the cables handle an “estimated 10 trillion U.S. dollars worth of financial transactions every day” and calling them “an economic linchpin” that could cripple Western systems if exploited.  Despite the threat, Cattler underscored NATO efforts to increase monitoring and protection of critical undersea infrastructure.  Heightened focus on undersea infrastructure comes after the still unexplained September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions in the Baltic Sea.  Politico Reuters 

Danish Military Photographed Russian Vessels at Nord Stream Blast Location Days Before Explosion.  Denmark’s military says it photographed a number of Russian vessels near the Nord Stream pipeline just days before it exploded on September 26 of last year.  While analysts say that Russian maritime activity in the Baltic Sea isn’t necessarily unusual and is well known to regional intelligence and security services, the proximity of the vessels so close to the Nord Stream has renewed interest in their possible involvement.  The investigation into who was responsible for the blasts is one of the most closely guarded probes.  In response to a freedom of information request from the Wall Street Journal, the Danish Defense Command says that a Danish naval vessel took 112 photos of Russian vessels near the blast site.  Danish authorities declined to release the actual photos, citing their intelligence value but added that 26 of the photographs were of a Russian vessel designated as SS-750, a ship that can reportedly be equipped with a small submarine.  A Danish military analyst says that while these new revelations are not a “smoking gun”, he has no doubt as to who was responsible, referring to Russia.  On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the allegations that it was involved part of a “Western misinformation campaign.”  Wall Street Journal 

Denmark Seeking $5.6 Billion to Upgrade Military Facilities.  Denmark says it is aiming to spend 38 million kroner ($5.6 billion) over the next decade to upgrade and modernize its military.  The spending will be used to modernize and renovate military facilities, increase the number of Danish troops and upgrade outdated computer systems.  Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the funding is needed to address the “very serious situation” that Denmark’s armed forces is facing.  Associated Press

EU Finalizes Details on $1.1 Billion Joint Procurement Deal for Ukraine.  The E.U. reached a compromise deal on Wednesday for a $1 billion deal to jointly purchase ammunition for Ukraine.  The deal, part of a three-track agreement first disclosed in March, aims to deliver 1 million artillery shells and other ammunition to Ukraine within 12 months.  The multipart deal stalled in negotiations due to disagreement between E.U. members states over who would participate.  Separately, the European Commission agreed to launch a 500 million euro plan to boost European arms makers’ production capacities.  Reuters 

Over 100 Italian Mafia Suspects Arrested by Police Across Europe in Drug Crackdown. Over 100 people affiliated with the Italian ‘Ndrangheta mafia were arrested across Europe on Wednesday in a massive crackdown, according to several European officials. The arrested are accused of taking part in drugs and weapons trafficking with counterparts in Latin America. Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said the operation, led by Europol, is one of the largest carried out against Italy’s organized crime rings.  Associated Press Reuters 

Italy Not Likely to Renew BRI Deal with China.  Italy is highly unlikely to renew its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal with China but has not made a final decision and needs time to discuss with Beijing, according to an official familiar with the matter.  The official says a decision is not expected ahead of this month’s G7 meeting.  In 2019, Italy became the only G7 nation to date to enter the China-led infrastructure agreement.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office reportedly did not reply to a request by Reuters for comment on the matter.  Reuters 

Central & Eastern Europe

Zelenskyy Calls for Creation of a Tribunal in Visit to The Hague.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the creation of a special war crimes tribunal separate from the International Criminal Court (ICC)  to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin accountable for the crime of aggression.  His comments came during a visit Thursday to the Hague.  The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin related to the suspected deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.  The ICC does not, however, have jurisdiction over alleged crimes of aggression, a fact that Zelenskyy says warrants the creation of a “really true, full-fledged tribunal”.  Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press 

U.S. & Ukraine Deny Involvement in Kremlin Drone Attack as Russian Official Call for Revenge.. Zelenskyy’s visit to the Netherlands came after he denied Kyiv’s involvement in an apparent drone attack against the Kremlin the day before.  Speaking in Finland, he said "We don't attack Putin, or Moscow, we fight on our territory.”  Moscow has blamed Ukraine and the U.S. for the drone attack.  Former Russian President Medvedev called for “physical elimination of Zelenskyy” and other top Ukrainian officials in response to the attack.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that Washington tells Ukraine to commit “such actions and terrorist actions,” though he didn’t provide evidence for his accusation.  Zelenskyy said that blaming Ukraine for the attack is in Russia’s interest since it has not had significant victories and is needing another way to motivate Russia to continue supporting the invasion of Ukraine.  White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said that the Russian claims were untrue, and that the U.S. does not encourage or equip Ukraine to strike Russian targets inside of Russia.  Associated Press Al Jazeera Washington Post  Politico

Russian Shelling Kills 21 in Kherson.  Russian shelling in and around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson killed 21 civilians and injured 48 more on Wednesday.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack hit a market, rail station, residential buildings and other civilian targets in Kherson, which was recaptured by Ukrainian forces in November.  Attacks on villages near Kherson that are still occupied by Russian forces killed four people, including three engineers working to repair electrical infrastructure damaged by earlier Russian attacks.  Elsewhere, Russia fired combat drones at other cities; Ukrainian authorities say drones and possible ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv were shot down, while other drones hit a university campus in the Black Sea city of Odesa.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

IAEA Says Russia Allegedly Placed Explosives Around Zaporizhzhia Plant.  Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate says the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) has confirmed that Russia has placed explosives near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s Unit 4 building.  The I.A.E.A. added that Russia is allegedly storing similar military equipment at the Unit 2 building and other areas of the plant.  The Zaporizhzhia plant is occupied by Russian forces and has been subject to shelling and external power outages.  The I.A.E.A. has urged for a protection zone around the plant to avoid a nuclear disaster.  Kyiv Independent

Turkey Closes Airspace to Armenian Flights.  Turkey on Wednesday closed its airspace to Armenian flights bound for a third destination. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the closure was made in response to the unveiling of a monument in the Armenian capital Yerevan last week which commemorates those involved in an assassination plot against Ottoman Turkish officials whom Armenia accuses of committing genocide against ethnic Armenians in World War One.  The U.S. Department of State expressed “disappointment” with the airspace closure and called for the resumption of transportation links and rebuilding of economic ties between the two countries.  Reuters RFE/RL Associated Press 

Asia & Oceania

US Sends Message to Beijing with Updated Bi-Lateral Defense Agreement with Philippines.  The U.S. has released a six-page “bi-lateral defense guideline” agreement that reportedly offers a clear explanation of the US-Philippine maritime defense agreement.  The document was announced this week during a visit to DC by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The new guidelines say that the defense treaty would be invoked if either the U.S. or the Philippines were attacked in the South China Sea, and also specifically mentions threats against Coast Guard vessels. The document also includes updated guidance on dealing with “gray zone” tactics which include asymmetric, hybrid and unconventional warfare, all tactics that Beijing is accused of using to assert dominance in the region.  Analysts say that the new guidance, specifically the mention of Coast Guard vessels is a clear message to China, who was not specifically mentioned in the document, and that it will give Beijing “pause”.  China’s Foreign Ministry responded on Thursday to say that it opposes the use of bi-lateral defense agreements in the region and that the South China Sea should not be a “hunting ground” for external forces.  Defense News Reuters U.S. Department of Defense

China Calls for ‘High Vigilance’ Over NATO Expansion In Asia.  The Chinese foreign ministry on Thursday called for “high vigilance” over NATO’s “eastward expansion” into Asia.  The alert came in response to a reports that NATO is opening a liaison office in Japan – its first in Asia – to facilitate coordination with regional security partners like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to address shared concerns over China and Russia.  A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson suggested the station will allow NATO to interfere in regional affairs, disrupt regional stability and prompt bloc confrontation.  Reuters

Taiwan Defense Minister Reports F-16 deliveries from U.S. Delayed. The delivery of 66 advanced F-16Vs from the U.S. to Taiwan is delayed due to supply chain disruptions, according to Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng. The deal to sell the $8 billion worth of F-16Vs to Taiwan was approved by the U.S. back in 2019 and aims to boost Taiwan’s fighter jet fleet to more than 200 jets, which is the largest in Asia.  Chiu said that Taiwan is working with the U.S. to “make up the deficiency” through ways such as prioritizing spare part deliveries for Taiwan’s existing fleet.  Taiwan has said since last year that arms deliveries from the U.S. have been disrupted due to the shift of weapons towards Ukraine.  Reuters

Taiwan Chief Trade Representative Cautions Against ‘Unnecessary Fear’ of China.  Taiwan’s chief trade representative, John Chen-Chung Deng, is warning against “unnecessary fear” that China will invade Taiwan.  In an interview with The Associated Press, Deng explained that the U.S. business community is continuing to invest and expand in Taiwan and highlighted U.S. efforts to bolster defenses and deterrence with Indo-Pacific regional allies.  Deng said these efforts should demonstrate that China will not feel confident enough to invade Taiwan and that “exaggeration or rhetoric” saying otherwise “doesn’t reflect the true situation.”  Deng’s confidence comes amid escalating tensions between China and the U.S. over Taiwan and efforts to increase semiconductor production in the U.S. in case supplies from Taiwan are disrupted from a conflict with China.  Deng noted this development, but said Taiwan remains an ideal place for semiconductor production and other U.S. trade and business.  Associated Press 

Middle East & Northern Africa

Iran and Syria Sign Long-Term Cooperation Accord.  Syrian state media reports that Syria and Iran signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement on Wednesday.  The agreement reportedly includes a memorandum of understanding on oil industry cooperation.  The signing came while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was in Damascus to meet with his counterpart, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, marking the first visit by an Iranian head of state to Syria since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011.  Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Intense Fighting in Khartoum, Sudan Ceasefire Evasive.  Heavy fighting is continuing in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, violating a seven-day long ceasefire meant to start Thursday.  Significant fighting is reportedly occurring around the presidential palace and army headquarters as Sudanese army troops fight to push back the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.).  Shelling is also reportedly hitting the nearby cities of Omdurman and Bahri.  Al Jazeera Reuters 

UN Says Sudan Aid Trucks Looted, Urges Warring Sides to Allow Safe Passage.  The U.N.’s World Food Programme says six of its trucks traveling to Sudan’s western region of Darfur were looted enroute.  U.N. aid chief said he contacted Sudan army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to press for aid corridors and airlift operations.  The U.N. is more widely urging the warring factions in Sudan to cease fighting and enter peace talks.  The U.N. says the conflict has caused a regional humanitarian crisis due to thousands of refugees fleeing Sudan for neighboring countries.  Reuters 

First Peace Talks Between Ethiopia and Oromo Rebels End Without Agreement.  The Ethiopian government and rebels from the Oromiya region ended their first round of peace talks on Wednesday without reaching a deal.  Both parties said they agreed to continue to talk to address remaining issues.  Rebel groups in Oromiya have resisted the Ethiopian government for decades.  Barron’s Reuters 

USAID Temporarily Suspends Food Aid to Tigray Region of Ethiopia After Theft.  The U.S. Agency for International Development (U.S.A.I.D.) said Wednesday it is temporarily suspending shipments of food aid to the Tigray region of Ethiopia after discovering aid was being sold on the local market.  The agency is investigating the issue, Ethiopian and Tigrayan authorities have said they will support the U.S. to find those responsible for the aid diversion.  U.S.A.I.D. said it “stands ready” to resume food aid once it implements stronger oversight measures and regains confidence that the aid is being properly delivered.  Reuters 

Cyber & Tech

Russian Network Evades U.S. Sanctions, Acquires Dual-Use Technology for Military Bodies. A Russian spy network has managed to evade U.S. sanctions and acquire dual-use technology from EU companies in support of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.  According to the Financial Times, the network established by Russia’s FSB intelligence agency has acquired machine tools from Germany and Finland.  The network apparently was successful even after a U.S. crackdown on its operations.  The “Serniya network” identified by the U.S. Justice Department has procured materials for a range of Russian clients, including the FSB’s Directorate for Scientific and Technological Intelligence, the SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service), the Rostec defense company, the Ministry of Defense, and Rosatom, the state-owned atomic energy company.  Corporate and other records examined by the Financial Times reveal that a Russian trading house acquired almost $1 million dollars in technology products, including microchips and industrial manufacturing components.  Financial Times

Google, Microsoft Executives Invited To Discuss AI at White House Thursday. Leading executives from Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic have been invited to the White House on Thursday to discuss AI issues with Vice President Kamala Harris and other officials.  The invitation to the meeting repeated President Biden’s recent statement expressing the administration’s "expectation that companies like yours must make sure their products are safe before making them available to the public."  According to Reuters, Thursday’s meeting will be attended by a range of administration officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Director of the National Economic Council Lael Brainard, and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo.  Reuters 

FTC Chair Says Agency ‘Well Equipped’ To Rein In Abuses of Emerging AI. Citing the exploitation of consumers’ privacy by big tech companies as the Web 2.0 developed in the 2000’s, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan today wrote in the New York Times that “as the use of A.I. becomes more widespread, public officials have a responsibility to ensure this hard-learned history doesn’t repeat itself.”  Khan noted that the FTC has a dual mission “to promote fair competition and to protect Americans from unfair or deceptive practices.”  In pursuing these goals, she wrote, the FTC will aggressively enforce existing laws and regulations to prevent “business models or practices involving the mass exploitation of…users.”  Included among Khan’s projection of AI risks is the domination of cloud services and large data repositories by a few companies, possibly excluding start-up companies from a fair chance at competition.  Whether it is control of “raw materials” or unleashing potential fraudulent forms of generative AI, Khan says “the FTC is well equipped” to handle AI-related violations, “including collusion, monopolization, mergers, price discrimination and unfair methods of competition.”  New York Times

Google DeepMind, LinkedIn Co-founders Launch AI Chatbot. Yet another variation and rival to ChatGPT has entered the market as the co-founders of Google DeepMind and LinkedIn have launched “Pi,” an AI chatbot.  The company bringing Pi to market, Inflection AI, describes the chatbot as “having the persona of a sympathetic sounding board” rather than simply compiling information.  User “conversations” with Pi can be accomplished directly via an app, or through text, WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook.  Inflection AI CEO Mustafa Sulayman said Pi will not perform some of the tasks common in other generative AI tools, such as writing an essay, but instead will deliver “relaxed, supportive, informative conversation.”   Financial Times

Meta Reports Growing Use of Fake ChatGPT To Spread Malware on Facebook. Meta, Facebook’s parent company, reported Wednesday that malware posing as ChatGPT is appearing with greater frequency across its platforms.  Meta security teams have discovered 10 malware applications using bogus ChatGPT-like identities to lure users into triggering malicious software on their machines.  Meta said that Ducktail malware, which has been around since 2021, is being used by threat actors to steal browser cookies and hijack logged-in Facebook sessions, allowing information from the victim’s Facebook account, including account information and location data, to be extracted.  Meta has linked the distribution of DuckTail to threat actors in Vietnam, who have been issued cease-and-desist letters.  Meta also has notified law enforcement.  CyberScoop Reuters TechCrunch 

‘Anonymous Sudan’ Hackers Claim Breach of Israeli Rocket, Iron Dome Alert Systems. The hacking group known as Anonymous Sudan claimed that it breached Israeli rocket warning systems, including Iron Dome, as a rocket attack originating in the Gaza Strip was taking place on Tuesday.  The group warned that it would repeat the intrusion if more rockets are launched.  While the smartphone apps of the affected warning services have been restored, the websites remained down as of Wednesday.  The hackers claimed that their takedown of warning sites was so effective that it hampered the operations of Iron Dome, Israel’s anti-missile defense system.  Israeli Army Radio reported that the Iron Dome had a success rate of around 71 percent, compared to its usual 90-95 percent. The IDF is currently investigating the reasons for this.  Jerusalem Post

DoD Cyber Leaders Ask Industry Help in Leveraging AI for Security, Warfighting. Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, the director of the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA), made an emphatic point at the AFCEA TechNet Cyber conference in Baltimore by opening his keynote address with a generative AI cloned version of his voice.  Then, speaking himself, Skinner said “generative AI…is probably one of the most disruptive technologies and initiatives in a very long, long time.”  Skinner and other military leaders used the occasion of the conference to appeal to industry for help in giving the DoD an edge over adversaries in leveraging AI, especially as it applies to cybersecurity, intelligence, and warfighting.  Maj. Gen. Joseph Matos, deputy commander of the Joint Force Headquarters-Cyber (Marines) and Marine Corps Forces Cyberspace Command, reiterated Skinner’s emphasis on collaboration with industry, and added that while AI in a military context is still a “very nascent technology,” the military services are compelled to find ways to benefit from it.  Breaking Defense DefenseScoop

FBI, Ukraine Authorities Seize Crypto Exchanges Laundering Ransomware Payments. A joint operation by the FBI and Ukrainian law enforcement has resulted in the seizure of nine crypto exchanges involved in laundering ransomware payments.  The seized infrastructure will be analyzed to uncover and possibly arrest ransomware actors who laundered money through the sites.  In describing the seizure, the FBI said the exchanges operated with lax or no controls, thereby serving as “important hubs in the cybercrime ecosystem.”  BleepingComputer  The Record

Chinese Disinformation Operation Used London Front To Recruit Contributors. A front company in London operating on behalf of a Chinese disinformation network used fake Internet personas to recruit content creators and translators for the network.  Meta has reported that it removed more than 100 Facebook accounts as well as dozens on Instagram that were connected to the operation.  In addition to recruiting writers and translators, the front company, London New Europe Media, attempted to hire individuals to record English-language videos produced by the network.  The uncovering of the disinformation operation follows a warning last year from the Mandiant cybersecurity firm that dozens of news sites around the globe posing as “independent” are in reality connected to propaganda campaigns to “disseminate content strategically aligned with the political interests of the People’s Republic of China.”  The Record

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