Report for Thursday, May 16, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Putin cites advances in all directions in Ukraine

Xi and Putin tout Russia-China ties

China’s coastguard shadows Filipino activist flotilla in South China Sea

Slovak PM Fico expected to survive assassination attempt

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS – How a ‘Russian Law’ Brought Georgia to the Brink

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION – Understanding Erdogan’s ‘Non-Visit’ to Washington

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Rafah emptying, Israeli military moving in, U.S. red line isn’t breached.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel would forge ahead with a military offensive in Rafah despite strong objections from the Biden administration and top officials at the European Union and United Nations. “Yes, we do have a disagreement on Gaza. Rather, on Rafah,” Netanyahu told CNBC’s Sara Eisen.  “...And, you know, sometimes you have to ... you just have to do what is required to ensure your survival and your future. We cannot continue into the future by having Hamas retake Gaza.”

About 600,000 people have fled Rafah since Israel issued evacuation orders May 6, UNRWA, the U.N. aid agency for Palestinians, estimates.  Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat, Wednesday called on Israel to end the operation in Gaza and said to continue would  “put a heavy strain on the EU’s relationship with Israel.”  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the military operation in Rafah was interfering with aid efforts. “At the very time when Israel was taking important and much needed steps to improve the provision of humanitarian assistance,” Blinken said, “we’ve seen a negative impact on the fact that we have this active, very active conflict in the in the Rafah area…We’ve also seen Hamas firing at the crossings themselves, making it also more difficult.”  Biden administration officials were careful not to accuse  the Israeli military of crossing a red line, which State Department spokesman Vedant Patel defined as “a direct invasion into Rafah that is targeting and invading into the urban and dense centers.”  “We do not want to see a major operation into Rafah, and we have not seen one yet that we would take issue with,” Patel told reporters Wednesday.  CNBC Times of Israel Washington Post Washington Post New York Times 

Washington scrambling for a plan for postwar Gaza. Israel torn by political schisms. The Biden administration is trying to persuade Arab states to take part in a peacekeeping force in Gaza once the war ends, to fill the vacuum until a non-Hamas Palestinian security apparatus can be created. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco are considering the idea but want the U.S. military to lead or at least participate, a non-starter as far as President Joe Biden is concerned.  Other Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, don’t want to deploy their forces for fear of aligning with Israel and becoming embroiled in a no-win counter-insurgency struggle.  On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken aired his frustration with the Netanyahu government, telling CBS’s Face the Nation that Washington had “been working for many, many weeks on developing credible plans for security, for governance, for rebuilding” with Arab states and other allies.  “We haven’t seen that come from Israel,” he said.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded that making a postwar plan wasn’t possible so long as Hamas remained capable of violent acts and intimidation.  “All the talk about ‘the day after,’ while Hamas stays intact, will remain mere words devoid of content,” Netanyahu said. In a televised statement Wednesday, defense minister Yoav Gallant said that, since October, he had tried to promote a plan to set up a "non-hostile Palestinian governing alternative" to Hamas, but Netahyahu and his far-right political allies in the government had refused to discuss the matter. After Gallant’s speech, according to the Jerusalem Post, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich demanded that Netanyahu announce unequivocally that the Palestinian Authority would not be part of a civil governing body, and at least six other ministers, including from the Likud, attacked Gallant on social media. But Benny Gantz, the third  member of the three-man war cabinet with Netanyahu and Gallant, said the defense minister had "spoke(n) the truth."  Associated Press Reuters Reuters Financial Times Financial TimesWashington Post Bloomberg Jerusalem Post 

Read After Gaza: A Political and Economic Path Forward in The Cipher Brief

Hamas transforming to insurgency, raising prospect of endless war.   Hamas has shifted to guerilla tactics, harassing Israeli forces via small cells of fighters popping out of tunnels and firing anti tank weapons at Israeli soldiers.  The Israeli security establishment fears that without a credible plan for replacing Hamas, the group will remain, undercutting the Israeli military’s achievements so far.  As Israel’s military moved into Rafah, aiming to finish Hamas’s last four battalions, Hamas fighters turned up again in northern Gaza to attack Israel soldiers.  Israel said Tuesday that it sent in tanks to help troops repel dozens of militants and launched air strikes on more than 100 targets, including a Hamas war room in central Gaza.  “Hamas is everywhere in Gaza,” Joost Hiltermann, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at International Crisis Group, told the Wall Street Journal. “Hamas is far from defeated.”  Wall Street Journal

Israel calls U.N. a ‘terror organization’ and a ‘collaborator with Hamas’.  Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan said on Wednesday that the U.N. has “turned into a collaborator with Hamas” and may even be a “terror organization.”  His comments in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio came after the U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution promoting Palestinian statehood.  The U.N. has been one of the loudest critics of Israeli military operations in Gaza, condemning alleged Israeli attacks that have killed civilians and humanitarian workers and accusing Israel of blocking aid for Gaza.  Israel has alleged employees of the Palestine refugee agency UNRWA participated in Hamas’s October 7 attack and that Palestinian militants use U.N. facilities.  Financial Times

British aid leaves Cyrpus for Gaza pier.  An initial British shipment of almost 100 tonnes of aid has left Cyprus for the U.S.-operated pier in Gaza, the British Foreign Office announced on Wednesday.  Hundreds of tons of aid is waiting to be shipped from Cyprus.  A U.S.-flagged vessel left Cyprus last week to deliver aid to the pier, which U.S. military officials say will be operational “in the coming days.”  While the pier will bring much needed aid, “it must be accompanied by an increase in aid delivered through land routes” to address Gaza’s humanitarian needs, Foreign Minister David Cameron said.  Reuters Stars and Stripes

ANALYSIS - Gazans evacuating Rafah driven to areas without aid, medical care.  Hundreds of thousands of Gazans have fled Rafah ahead of Israeli military operations, and many of them have been directed to a “humanitarian zone.” A New York Times analysis of maps and satellite imagery has found that the zone is overcrowded, damaged by air strikes, and without sufficient medical services. The Times found that from May 5 to May 7, more than 400 structures in the evacuation area were destroyed by Israeli strikes, which also left behind unexploded ordnance.  Little or no aid and little fuel have entered southern Gaza over the past week.  Just two major hospitals in Rafah are only partially functioning, to serve several hundred thousand people.  New York Times

Hezbollah claims it targeted military base west of Israel's Tiberias in drone attack.  Hezbollah claimed to have launched a drone assault on a military base west of Israel's Tiberias on Wednesday.   The attack targeted part of the Israeli air force's surveillance system and was described by Hezbollah as a successful, limited operation.  The attack is the group’s deepest strike into Israeli territory amid the ongoing Gaza conflict.  Israeli authorities reported damage but no casualties, and air-raid sirens were activated in the area. This incident followed the death of Hezbollah field commander Hussein Mekki in an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon a day earlier. Hezbollah stated that the drone attack was a response to Israeli "assassinations," though it did not explicitly link it to Mekki's killing.  Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Putin cites advances as pressure builds on the US to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia.  President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russian forces are advancing in all directions in Ukraine, and the war is going according to plan. Russia has pushed back Ukrainian forces, opening a new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region and pummeling the border town of Vovchansk, where Russian forces have taken up positions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said, however, that the tempo of Russian operations in the Kharkiv region has slowed, and the Russians have advanced no more than five miles from the international border and would confront Ukraine’s first line of defenses if they go eight miles inside the border.

The ISW said the U.S. Helsinki Commission wants the U.S. to allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas, as the U.K. and other countries have done. Ukrainian forces are limited in their ability to strike back by a U.S. ban on Kyiv firing American weapons into Russian territory. George Barros, an ISW analyst, told the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. could alter the battlespace in Kharkiv if the U.S. lifts this prohibition. Asked Wednesday if the U.S. would allow Ukraine to use ATACMS against targets inside Russia, Blinken said: “We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine. But ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war, a war that it’s conducting in defense of its freedoms, of its sovereignty and its territorial integrity.”  Institute for the Study of War Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press New York Times 

Read A Confident Putin Has Many in Europe Frightened in The Cipher Brief

Russia says it seized two more villages in Kharkiv villages, retook Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia.  Russia’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that Russian forces have taken control of the settlements of Hlyboke and Lukyantsi in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region and have retaken control of the village of Robotyne in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.  If true, the advances would be part of Russia’s incremental gains as part of its renewed offensive over the past few days.  A Ukrainian military spokesperson denied that Russia had retaken Robotyne.  The Ukrainian General Staff said earlier Wednesday that its forces repelled three Russian attacks towards Robotyne.  Reuters Newsweek

Russian airstrikes injure at least 25 in southern Ukraine.  Russian missiles and guided bombs struck Ukraine’s southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson, injuring at least 25 people.  Local officials said eight apartment blocks, two schools, a medical facility, and private homes were damaged in the attack.  Reuters

Ukraine reimposes power rationing during cold snap, continued Russian strikes.  Ukraine has reimposed electricity rationing due to a dip in temperatures that is putting pressure on the Ukrainian power system, which is still being pounded by Russian air strikes.  NPC Ukrenergo said the unusually low temperatures for May caused a “significant” electricity supply deficit that forced it to enact nationwide emergency power cuts.  Recent Russian attacks have damaged thermal and hydro power plants, and energy imports from Western partners have proved insufficient to fill gaps.  Bloomberg 

Partisans: Ammunition depot hit at Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea.  An artillery depot at Belbek Airfield in occupied Crimea was reportedly attacked. The attack, believed to have been carried out by Ukrainian partisans, resulted in explosions and fires at the depot.  The attack on the strategically significant Belbek Airfield adds to the recent series of attacks on military installations in the area.  Kyiv Independent 

Russia backs, US rejects China’s ‘plan’ for peace in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin supported China's plan to resolve the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, praising Chinese President Xi Jinping's commitment to a "just multipolar world order." The West has dismissed China's 12-point peace proposal.  “China’s been trying to have it both ways — it’s, on the one hand, trying to present itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace, while at the same time, it is talking up Russia’s false narrative about the war,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this year.  “There are 12 points in the Chinese plan. If they were serious about the first one, sovereignty, then this war could end tomorrow.”  Politico Politico

What are the Russian “turtle tanks” seen in Ukraine?  In 2021, Russia began retrofitting its tanks with metal cages to protect against attacks, which proved ineffective and were dubbed “emotional-support armor” by analysts. Recently, Russia introduced "turtle tanks," which are T-72 tanks covered in corrugated metal to shield against drone attacks. This "spaced armor" design aims to reduce the impact of drones by blunting and misdirecting their attacks. While providing some protection, modifications have had limited success, as turtle tanks remain vulnerable and have shown operational limitations — the heavy metal sheeting slows the tanks, restricts turret movement, and hampers visibility.  Modern Western tanks, like America’s M10 Booker and Britain’s Challenger 3, are more likely to use advanced active protection systems rather than crude armor.  Economist

The Americas

FBI, DHS warn of terror threat to Pride Month events. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have issued a warning that Pride month celebrations, which run through June, might be potential targets for foreign terrorist organizations or their supporters. The release does not mention any specific threats or intelligence suggesting that any event, celebration, or individual has been targeted, but it warns of a "heightened threat environment in the United States and other Western countries." The release also notes that foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and their supporters have previously promoted anti-LGBTQIA+ rhetoric and targeted LGBTQIA+-related events or venues for attacks, compounding the potential risk during Pride celebrations.  Public Service Announcement The Guardian

Read Assessing the ISIS-K Threat: Could It Happen Here? In The Cipher Brief

'What doesn't kill you makes you stronger': China responds to new US tariffs.  China has responded to new U.S. tariffs with defiant rhetoric, invoking the proverb "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger."  The Chinese government's reaction suggests a willingness to withstand economic pressure and maintain a resilient stance amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. Experts are watching for any further escalation of the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies and the broader implications for global trade dynamics. Reuters Reuters

US removes Cuba from list of countries not cooperating fully against terrorism. The U.S. removed Cuba from its list of countries "not cooperating fully" against terrorism, citing resumed law enforcement cooperation. This move by the Biden administration is symbolically significant, though most Trump-era restrictions on Cuba remain. The change might lead to a review of Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez welcomed the decision but urged for an end to Cuba's inclusion on the terrorism sponsor list. North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela remain on the list. Reuters Associated Press

U.S. sanctions Nicaragua over repression, human smuggling. The U.S. imposed visa restrictions on over 250 members of the Nicaraguan government and levied sanctions on three Nicaraguan entities in response to Nicaragua’s "repressive actions" and a failure to curb migrant smuggling through the Central American country. The visa restrictions targeted police and paramilitary officials, prosecutors, judges, and public higher education officials.  Simultaneously, the Departments of State, Homeland Security, and the Treasury issued a joint alert to notify airlines and travel agents about smuggling and human trafficking networks exploiting legitimate transportation services to facilitate illegal migration to the U.S. through Nicaragua. The Department of Homeland Security stated that the Nicaraguan government's "permissive-by-design migration policies" under President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo are of grave concern.  Reuters

Colombia appoints new foreign minister. President Gustavo Petro has appointed Luis Gilberto Murillo as Colombia's new foreign affairs minister, following the country's decision to cut diplomatic ties with Israel and as it plans to mediate Venezuela's political crisis. Murillo had been serving as the interim foreign minister since January, after replacing Alvaro Leyva, who was suspended over potential irregularities in a passport bidding process. As Colombia's first leftist leader, Petro has been vocal on global matters, labeling Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu "genocidal" and frequently visiting Venezuela, where he has proposed a democratic pact between Nicolás Maduro and the opposition.  Bloomberg 

Peru's Boluarte set to visit China in June.  Peru's President Dina Boluarte is set to visit China in June for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Agriculture Minister Angel Manero said that the summit's agenda includes 29 issues, with beef exports to China, projected to boost Peru's economy by $3-4 billion, a key topic. The meeting precedes the APEC trade forum in Lima in November, where Xi and as many as 20 other world leaders will attend.  Xi's attendance will also align with the inauguration of the Chancay megaport, built by Cosco Shipping Ports, which aims to enhance trade between South America and Asia. Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Xi welcomes Putin for a two-day state visit to China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin for a two-day state visit to China, underscoring their close relationship amid Russia's economic reliance on China due to Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Greeted with military honors and as an “old friend,’’ Putin discussed furthering their strategic partnership.  The Chinese leader added that he was prepared “to consolidate the friendship between the two peoples for generations to come.”  Both leaders emphasized their united front against the U.S.-led global order. Putin praised China's "One Belt One Road" initiative. The two leaders will participate in a gala evening celebrating 75 years since the Soviet Union recognized the People’s Republic of China. Putin will also visit Harbin, a city with strong ties to Russia, in northeastern China. Associated Press Al Jazeera Reuters CNN BBC Bloomberg

ANALYSIS - The lopsided reality of the China-Russia relationship.  As Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, they'll present a united front against the U.S.-led global order. However, the relationship is unequal: China is crucial for Russia's sanctions-stricken economy, supplying electronics and other materials, while Russia now sells oil and gas to China at discounts. China accounts for 33% of Russia’s trade, but Russia only 4% of China’s. China's support is vital for Russia's defense industry, yet Beijing wields leverage, influencing prices and trade terms. This growing dependence on China is reshaping Russia's economic and geopolitical landscape.  Wall Street Journal The Economist

China’s coastguard, maritime militia shadow Filipino activist flotilla in South China Sea. Chinese coast guard ships are shadowing a group of Filipino activists and fishermen sailing on wooden boats toward the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims as its own. The Philippine Coast Guard has deployed three patrol ships and a light plane to monitor the group of about 100 people from a distance, while the navy has also dispatched a ship to keep an eye on the flotilla. The group, which includes dozens of journalists, set off from western Zambales province to assert Manila's sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and surrounding waters.  The flotilla planned to lay down symbolic territorial buoys and provide supplies to Filipino fishermen near the shoal.  However, once the activists made it to around 58 miles southeast of the shoal, they decided to limit their activities to supporting Filipino fishermen in the area before heading home to avoid any further confrontation.  Associated Press Associated Press South China Morning Post New York Times Reuters 

US to send unofficial delegation to Taiwan president’s inauguration. The White House announced on Wednesday that it will send an unofficial delegation to Taiwan this weekend for the inauguration of the island's democratically elected president, a move that is certain to upset China but is unlikely to draw excessive responses from Beijing as the two countries try to stabilize relations. The delegation, comprising two former senior officials and a scholar, will attend the inauguration ceremony on Monday for Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, who is succeeding outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen. A senior White House official said that the delegation's visit is in line with longstanding U.S. practice and aims to represent the American people, while describing Taiwan as "a model for democracy not only in the region but also globally." While Beijing is expected to be displeased by the unofficial U.S. delegation's presence, the White House official said that "Beijing will be the provocateur should it choose to respond with additional military pressure or coercion."  Associated Press South China Morning Post Nikkei Asia 

China military incursions inch closer to Taiwan, sources say. China's military has intensified its activities near Taiwan in recent weeks, sailing and flying closer to the island than before and staging mock attacks on foreign vessels ahead of the inauguration of Taiwan's next president on Monday, according to Taiwanese government reports. Since late April, an increasing number of Chinese military planes and vessels have conducted drills that have alarmed Taiwan, including close approaches to the island's contiguous zone, which extends 24 nautical miles off its coast.  Reuters

Read In Taiwan, the Calendar - and Preparations - for a Chinese Invasion in The Cipher Brief

Japan, U.S. to jointly develop hypersonic interceptor.  The U.S. and Japan signed a cooperative agreement to jointly develop a hypersonic missile defense capability called the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), designed to neutralize hypersonic threats during the glide phase of flight. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is in the early stages of developing the GPI, with plans for initial fielding in the mid-2030s.  Two companies, Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman, are currently competing to design the interceptor. The agreement follows over a year of discussions between the U.S. and Japan regarding the GPI, with the two governments announcing the start of the cooperative development process during the Japan-U.S. summit meeting in August 2023. The interceptors will be designed to be integrated into the U.S. Navy's Aegis ballistic missile defense-equipped destroyers, firing from the standard vertical launching system and controlled by the modified Baseline 9 Aegis Weapon System.  Associated Press Defense News

Myanmar resistance leaders make joint appearance in Tokyo.  In a show of unity against Myanmar's military regime, a minister from the parallel National Unity Government and high-ranking leaders of three ethnic armed organizations – the Chin National Front, Karen National Union (KNU), and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) – held a rare joint news conference in Tokyo on Wednesday. The participants included Zaw Wai Soe, the minister of education and health in the parallel government, along with Salai Thla Hei, Saw Nimrod, and Luiz, representing the Chin National Front, KNU, and KNPP, respectively.  Nikkei Asia 

Singapore’s new PM takes office. Lawrence Wong was sworn in on Wednesday as Singapore's fourth prime minister since independence.  Wong, 51, is part of the "4G" leaders – a new generation of politicians hand-picked by the long-ruling People's Action Party (PAP) to take over the reins of the key Asian trade and financial center.  Wong is also the first Singaporean Prime Minister born after the country's independence in 1965. He will retain his position as finance minister while taking over the premiership from Lee Hsien Loong, the 72-year-old son of Singapore's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, who led the country for two decades.  Reuters Nikkei Asia 

Former Pakistan PM Khan granted bail, but can’t leave jail.  Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan was granted bail by the Islamabad High Court on Wednesday in a land corruption case, but he will remain in jail due to convictions in two other cases. Khan, who denies any wrongdoing, was indicted last week on charges that he and his wife received gifted land from a real estate developer in exchange for illegal favors during his tenure as prime minister from 2018-2022. In total, Khan has been convicted in four cases, with sentences in two cases suspended, and he has been incarcerated since August last year.  Reuters 

Europe

Fico is expected to survive assassination attempt; in ‘very serious’ but stable condition. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is no longer in a life-threatening condition after being shot multiple times in Handlova on Wednesday. Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba confirmed to the BBC that Fico's surgery went well, and he is expected to survive. The director of the hospital, Miriam Lapuniková, at which he is being treated said he is in “very serious” but stable condition after five hours of surgery. “The patient had multiple gunshot wounds,” Lapuniková told a press conference Thursday morning outside Banská Bystrica hospital. The suspect, reportedly a 71-year-old writer and political activist, was detained at the scene as believed by authorities to have been a “lone wolf” attacker.  Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estoka described the attack as a politically motivated assassination attempt.  The shooting coincided with parliamentary discussions on abolishing Slovakia's public broadcaster RTVS.  Deputy PM Taraba blamed opposition "false narratives" for inciting the attack.

Slovakia, a member of NATO and the European Union, has little history of political violence, but the country has seen polarized political debate in recent years, particularly since Fico returned as prime minister in October for a fourth stint. An admirer of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Fico has criticized Western support of Ukraine in its war with invading Russian forces. He is known for his attacks on media, nongovernmental organizations and prosecutors. The Guardian describes him as a “burly and brash political veteran” who is “typical of the new wave of nationalist-populist politicians who have emerged over the last decade, riding the wave of resentment generated among tens of millions of Europeans by the disappointments of the 21st century.”  He was forced to resign from office in 2018 amid protests over the murder of a journalist, Jan Kuciak, and his fiancée, Martina Kusnirova. Kuciak was investigating government corruption. Politico BBC  Reuters Associated Press  Wall Street Journal Washington Post Bloomberg Bloomberg Politico Wall Street Journal New York Times France 24 The Guardian New York Times

Georgia president plans veto of foreign agent bill as ‘symbol.’  Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili plans to veto the contentious "foreign influence" law, which mandates organizations receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad to register as "foreign agents." Despite her veto likely being overridden, Zourabichvili sees it as a symbolic act against measures she believes are steering Georgia away from its European path. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze recently said the plans were "solely aimed at promoting transparency and accountability." Zourabichvili disagreed, arguing that the funding of such groups was already tracked and was often a matter of public record. Critics argue the law threatens freedoms and EU aspirations, likening it to Russian legislation. Protests against the bill have been ongoing.  Deutsche Welle

Read How a ‘Russian Law’ Brought Georgia to the Brink exclusively in The Cipher Brief

EU ambassadors agree to sanction Russian media outlets. European Union ambassadors have agreed to sanction four Russian media outlets—Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestija, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta—accusing them of propaganda, according to EU Commissioner Vera Jourova. The sanctions, part of a planned 14th package against Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, also include banning Russian funding of EU media, nongovernmental organizations, and political parties. Previously sanctioned outlets lost their broadcasting rights in the EU. Russia warned of retaliatory measures against Western reporters if restrictions were imposed. Reuters

ANALYSIS - Gazprom’s Declining Fortunes Spell Trouble for Moscow.  Gazprom's $6.8 billion loss in 2023 signals trouble for Moscow, highlighting the backfiring of its decision to halt gas exports to Europe in 2022. European imports of Russian gas plummeted to their lowest levels since the 1970s, slashing Gazprom's foreign sales revenue by two-thirds. By comparison, excluding dividends, Gazprom transferred at least $40 billion into Russian state coffers in 2022.  The 2023 loss, the first since 1999, poses a threat to Russia's ability to finance its war in Ukraine, especially as military expenses rise. Gazprom's financial struggles, including increased borrowing and decreased revenue inflow, may worsen in 2024. With limited options for reviving gas sales, Moscow faces a challenging economic future.  Foreign Policy 

Geert Wilders announces new Dutch government. Far-right leader Geert Wilders announced a coalition deal for a new Dutch government with his Party for Freedom, two center-right parties, and the populist Farmer Citizen Movement. However, no prime minister has been chosen, indicating possible ongoing disagreements. The coalition still requires parliamentary faction approval.  Politico Deutsche Welle

EU’s top military body to be headed by another neutral-country general.  Irish Lieutenant General Seán Clancy was elected to lead the European Union Military Committee (EUMC).  If Clancy is ratified by E.U. leaders, he will take office in May 2025 for three years, replacing Austria’s General Robert Brieger.  The appointment means the E.U.’s top military body will continue to have a neutral-country general as its chair, rather than a general with NATO links.  The EUMC is made up of chiefs of defense from EU member countries and gives advice on the bloc’s military and security operations.  Politico

U.S. soldier detained in Russia’s Vladivostok pleads guilty, reports RIA agency. U.S. soldier Gordon Black, detained in Vladivostok, Russia, has pleaded guilty to theft charges and is cooperating with investigators, according to Russia's RIA news agency. Black, a U.S. staff sergeant, was arrested on May 2 for allegedly stealing from a woman he was in a relationship with and will remain detained until July 2. The U.S. warns its citizens against traveling to Russia due to risks of harassment and detention by Russian authorities.  Reuters 

Middle East

Houthis launch missile at U.S. destroyer in Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Wednesday claimed responsibility for targeting the USS Mason, a U.S. Navy destroyer, and a commercial ship named Destiny in the Red Sea. The attack on the Mason occurred two days prior, with the destroyer successfully intercepting the missile. The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet has not commented on the claimed attack on Destiny. The Houthis' recent attacks on shipping have disrupted trade through the Red Sea corridor, though their assaults have slowed amid U.S. military interventions. The Houthis stated their actions aim to pressure Israel to end its war against Hamas in Gaza.  Associated Press

IAEA says no amount of inspectors can overcome distrust in Iran.  IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi reports that despite an 8% increase in inspections in Iran last year, “there has been little progress in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues.”  Grossi said the U.N. nuclear watchdog lacks knowledge on Iranian production of nuclear material and equipment.  The assessment underscores the limitations of nuclear safeguards.  Bloomberg 

Africa

U.S. sanctions two commanders of Sudan’s paramilitary RSF.  The U.S. Treasury sanctioned two top commanders of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Wednesday.  The commanders — major general Osman Mohamed Hamid Mohamed, the RSF’s head of operations, and RSF Central Darfur commander Ali Yagoub Gibril — were sanctioned after RSF attacks in North Darfur.  The U.N. and rights groups have expressed concern about ethnic-based killings in North Darfur amid Sudan’s civil war.  Reuters

U.S. lays out plans for withdrawing troops from Niger.  The U.S. will present Niger’s government with its plan to withdraw troops from the West African country, where it will close two key bases used for regional drone operations against al-Qaeda and ISIS. The departure follows strained negotiations after Niger's junta, established following a 2023 coup, demanded the U.S. remove its 1,000 military personnel. The withdrawal plan aims to ensure order and security. The U.S. is also seeking alternative bases in Ivory Coast and Benin to address Islamist extremist threats in the Sahel region. Russian troops' presence in Niger adds complexity to the situation.  Washington Post

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Initial U.S.-China AI talks described as ‘candid and constructive’.  A spokesperson for the National Security Council (NSC) described the first set of talks on AI matters between the U.S. and China as “candid and constructive.”  A Chinese Foreign Ministry readout said the two sides’ representatives exchanged viewpoints “deeply, professionally, and constructively.”   National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson described the scope of the talks, noting they covered the need to build global consensus to ensure AI systems are “safe, secure and trustworthy.”  She said U.S. delegates also raised concerns over the misuse of AI, including by China, and emphasized the need to "maintain open lines of communication on AI risk and safety as an important part of responsibly managing competition."  The U.S. delegation was led by Tarun Chhabra, special assistant to the president and NSC senior director for technology and national security, and Seth Center, the State Department’s acting special envoy for critical and emerging technology.  China was represented by Yang Tao, director general of the ministry’s North American and Oceanian affairs department, along with officials from the science and technology ministry, the National Development and Reform Commission and other government agencies.  Yang said China sees the UN as the “main channel” for global governance of AI, adding that Beijing “is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the international community, including the U.S., in order to form a global AI governance framework and standards and norms with broad consensus.”  South China Morning Post   Reuters Reuters The Hill ABCNews Associated Press

Security officials warn of AI threat to elections.  Top U.S. security officials warned the Senate on Wednesday that foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, China, and Iran, will attempt to influence the upcoming elections using advanced AI to spread disinformation and undermine trust in democracy. Since Russia's interference in the 2016 election, the U.S. has significantly improved its election security and ability to combat disinformation, Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence, testified.  However Russia remains the most active threat, using state media and online influencers to undercut trust and fuel domestic issues.  Iran has used social media to threaten and confuse voters, notably in a 2020 incident targeting Democratic voters with intimidating emails.  China, though it did not directly influence the 2020 election, remains a concern, with officials raising issues with TikTok.  Senator Mark Warner voiced concerns that major social media platforms have expressed “utter disinterest” in combatting disinformation, while

Senator Marco Rubio questioned how officials would address AI-generated fake videos about electoral candidates. Haines suggested that state or local authorities might be better positioned to address these threats in certain cases. Jen Easterly, Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, assured that extensive collaboration with state and local officials aims to make the 2024 election the most secure yet. Associated Press Bloomberg

Read The AI Threats to Elections You Should (and Shouldn’t) Worry About exclusively in The Cipher Brief.

Senate ‘AI Working Group’ releases roadmap for AI development, governance.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and colleagues of both parties on Wednesday released a “roadmap” for the governance and development of AI.  In the same week that OpenAI and Google unveiled a variety of new AI products, the four-member “AI Working Group” published a report urging a Federal investment of $32 billion for nonmilitary AI R&D.  Funding would advance initiatives for the design and manufacturing of high-end AI chips as well as a series of “AI Grand Challenge” innovation programs.  The document also calls on congressional committees to formulate legislation to aid in the evaluation of AI risks related to elections, healthcare, and housing.  The senators offered their support of a federal data privacy law and legislation to prevent use of deepfakes in election campaigns.  Schumer noted that “we’re not going to wait on legislation that addresses every aspect of AI in society.  If some areas are ready earlier than others, they should go forward.”  Schumer expressed confidence that some AI bills can pass the Senate by the end of the year, with work continuing on AI legislation in the next Congress regardless of who wins the election.  Sen. Mike Rounds, acknowledging that China outspends the U.S. in government-sponsored AI research, said “this is a time in which the dollars we put into this particular investment will pay dividends for the taxpayers of this country long term.”  Washington Post Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times Senate.gov

Federal agencies warn civil society groups increasingly targeted by state-backed actors.  Federal security agencies issued an advisory on Tuesday warning that state-backed threat actors are targeting NGO’s, think tanks, activists, and journalists around the globe.  The advisory singled out Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as setting their sights on civil society organizations that typically lack sophisticated IT defenses and procedures.  “Malicious cyber actors” are seeking to intimidate and monitor organizations in an effort to “undermine democratic values.”  The advisory identifies several state-backed hacking groups, including North Korea’s Velvet Chollima; China’s Mustang Panda and Earth Empusa; Iran’s Charming Kitten, and the Syrian Electronic Army.  According to the agencies’ notice, these and other groups are conducting campaigns against aid organizations, religious institutions, dissidents, and others.  Hacking tactics focus on gaining initial access followed by spyware installation on compromised devices “to conduct more extensive surveillance, such as location tracking and access to files.”  The advisory, which received inputs from Japan, Estonia, Canada, the U.K., and Finland, links to related reports from the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Microsoft, Crowdstrike, and Cloudflare.  The Record CISA.gov

Naval News profiles apparent Chinese drone aircraft carrier under construction.  An unusually configured Chinese aircraft carrier has been under construction at a shipyard on the Yangtze River since December 2022.  Naval analysts believe the ship is “the world’s first dedicated fixed-wing drone carrier.”  The carrier is China’s fourth but features a flight deck one-third the length and half the width of other People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carriers.  Experts also note that the carrier can launch and recover fixed-wing aircraft, but because of its straight deck arrangement will not accommodate simultaneous take-off and landing.  The lack of normal hangar space suggests to observers that the ship appears purpose-built as a drone carrier.  Other exceptional features of the ship include the hull, which is a widely spaced catamaran.  Also, satellite image analysis reveals a very low flight deck that probably does not allow space for a hangar deck or one with restricted height.  In the view of analysts, the carrier does not appear capable of high tempo or prolonged flight operations.  The flight deck can comfortably accommodate aircraft or drones with a 65-ft wingspan, the width of Chinese equivalents of the U.S. Predator drone.  The ultimate purpose of the carrier is unknown, with possibilities including its use for “Blue Force” (opposition force) simulation or pure R&D.  Naval News Business Insider 

Japan plans fall start for defense technology research center with AI focus.  Japan’s Defense Ministry plans to establish a technology research center this fall that is modeled on facilities such as the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).  The technology center will explore AI applications in collaboration with private sector firms, including autonomous vehicles capable of operating in full darkness.  The center also will focus on advanced submarine detection using subatomic particles and electromagnetic waves.  A new program will subsidize private sector research to encourage rapid development of advanced technologies without financial risk for the companies involved.  Plans call for the center to employ 100 researchers, including from the private sector and academia, to focus on "breakthrough" technologies and peacetime civilian applications for defense technologies.  Nikkei

Google unveils array of AI-enhanced chatbot, search, interactive products.  Google on Tuesday unveiled an array of AI applications, a move that parent company Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai described as “a moment of growth and opportunity."  Responding to broad competition from AI rivals, Google revealed an enhanced Gemini chatbot along with improvements to its signature search engine.  Three key products were included in the release:  Flash, a faster and cheaper addition to the company’s Gemini AI models; an interactive speech prototype called Project Astra that can converse with users about smartphone images; and search results that are assembled under AI-generated category headlines.  Search also will include AI overviews, a feature that will allow search users to generate more conversational answers to certain queries with a single click.  Previews of coming products included Veo, an AI model that can generate high-resolution videos lasting longer than a minute.  Google also demonstrated a new Android scam detection feature, which can monitor phone calls and detect language that sounds like a scammer. If it detects an attempted scam, it will interrupt and generate an onscreen prompt suggesting that the call be ended.  Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal Wired

FBI again seizes BreachForums data leak site following Europol portal hack.  The FBI and international partners have seized the latest version of BreachForums, a data leak site used by threat actors to share stolen data.  A seizure notice has been posted to the site.  The seizure took place Wednesday after the site was used last week to leak data stolen from a Europol law enforcement portal.  The FBI disclosed that law enforcement authorities are reviewing data accessed through the website’s backend system.  Backend data may include email addresses, IP addresses, and private messages that could be used in law enforcement investigations. The FBI has also seized BreachForum’s Telegram channel and other channels owned by Baphomet, one of the site administrators.  BleepingComputer, citing a Telegram source, reported that Baphomet was arrested in the law enforcement operation.  The FBI has asked victims to contact them with information about the hacking forum and its members to aid their investigation.  Cybernews   BleepingComputer

UK cyber center launches mobile phone protection service for ‘high-risk’ individuals.  The UK’s

National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has launched the Personal Internet Protection (PIP) service to prevent cyberattacks directed at mobile phones of high-risk individuals such as elected officials, journalists, and those involved in the legal sector.  The new system will configure subscribed users’ mobile phones to connect to a DNS server that blocks outgoing traffic from reaching suspect domains, thereby providing “an extra layer of security on personal devices.”  In addition to blocking political candidates’ phones from connecting to servers used by spyware operators, the service will warn high-risk individuals of attempted connections to known malicious domains.   NCSC official Jonathon Ellison noted that prominent figures in democracies “are an attractive target for cyber actors seeking to disrupt or otherwise undermine our open and free society.”  The RecordReuters NCSC.gov.uk

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