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Thursday, March 30, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Taiwan’s Tsai Arrives in New York.  Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen arrived in New York on Wednesday, kicking off visits to the U.S. and Latin America.  Upon landing, Tsai struck a defiant yet composed tone, saying that Taiwan is “calm and confident, will neither yield nor provoke. Taiwan will firmly walk on the road of freedom and democracy and… is not alone.”  Tsai will travel to Guatemala and Belize this weekend and then visit Los Angeles as she returns home.  China has warned that Tsai’s trip could have a “severe impact” on U.S.-China relations.  China has also warned Tsai against meeting any American officials while in the U.S., saying Beijing will “definitely take measures to resolutely fight back,” especially if she meets House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles.  The White House has warned China against using Tsai’s visits as a pretext to act aggressively towards Taiwan, saying that her trips are “normal” stopovers in the U.S.  CNN Reuters South China Morning Post

U.S. Hosts Second Democracy Summit.  President Joe Biden is hosting his second Summit for Democracy.  Biden began the virtual summit by saying the strengthening of democracy is “the defining challenge of our age,” backing his statement by pledging $690 million in new funding for democracy initiatives around the world.  He also emphasized the strength of the democratic world, saying that “democracies are getting stronger, not weaker. Autocracies of the world are getting weaker, not stronger.”  Critics are questioning this, given democratic backsliding in key democracies like India and Israel, who are participating in the summit, and the U.S. cooperation with non-democratic countries.  Hosts of the summit invited 120 countries to participate, including Taiwan.  China, Russia and NATO members Turkey and Hungary were not invited.  China’s foreign ministry dismissed the summit for pushing interference in “internal affairs” of others in the name of democracy promotion.  Al Jazeera NPR

Two Army Black Hawk Helicopters Crash in Kentucky, Killing Nine.  Two Army Black Hawk helicopters from the 101st Airborne Division crashed during a training mission in Kentucky late Wednesday.  The crash reportedly killed nine people and is under investigation.  No residential areas appear to have been impacted.  Associated Press CNN 

Senate Approves Repeal of Iraq, Gulf War Authorizations.  The US Senate voted 66-30 in favor of legislation to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs) in Iraq, 20 years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.  The bipartisan move is an historic step towards formally ending the Iraq and Gulf Wars.  Supporters of the repeals say the AUMFs are outdated, painting Iraq as an adversary rather than the current security partner it is.  They also say the repeals will reassert the role of Congress in approving and scrutinizing U.S. military actions abroad.  The Republican-led House of Representatives still needs to back the repeals for them to pass, though it is uncertain if it will do so.  President Joe Biden has said if the measure makes it to his desk, he will sign it into law.  Axios New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

CIA Deputy Director Meets Paraguay President.  Paraguayan President Mario Abdo tweeted on Wednesday that he had met with CIA Deputy Director David Cohen on an unspecified date. The U.S. Embassy in Asuncion confirmed the meeting, saying that the two discussed "shared strategies for combating global threats.”  The announcement of the visit comes as Paraguay prepares for elections in late April, which will likely determine whether Paraguay maintains formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan or switches official recognition to China, like Honduras.  Reuters 

Defense Intelligence Agency to Upgrade ‘Stone Ghost’ Sharing System to Engage Beyond Five Eyes. Defense Intelligence Agency Chief Information Officer Doug Cossa announced that the DIA plans to upgrade its international intelligence-sharing system to allow more seamless collaboration with a broader coalition of allies, extending beyond the traditional “Five Eyes” partnership that includes the US, Canada, the UK, New Zealand, and Australia. The agency will start designing the upgrade to its “Stone Ghost” system in fiscal year 2024. The agency has an existing capability to share information with other nations, but that exists on a separate system.  The use of multiple networks can be cumbersome for the increasing amount of data that DIA processes.  DIA currently operates more than a dozen international information systems, including Stone Ghost; the agency is increasingly applying zero-trust principles to those networks — a cybersecurity approach that emphasizes regular validation that every user, function and piece of hardware that connects to a system is authorized.  Defense News

U.S. Army Addressing ‘Contested Logistics’ Problem in Indo-Pacific.  U.S. military officials are raising the alarm about the U.S. Army’s logistics weaknesses in the Indo-Pacific that will complicate the service’s ability to deploy troops and equipment in contested environments.  This “contested logistics” problem includes matters such as buying new capability, coordinating with industry, and securing communications and supply lines.  Army Futures Command, which oversees the service’s requirements, and the newly appointed Army Materiel Command, which is taking point on deployment strategies, are reportedly developing plans to address this issue.  Officials say strategies will focus on INDO-PACOM due to rising tensions with China.  Tech-focused Army officials add that they are also looking at ways to maintain and improve data flows in a contested environment to predict needs.  New technologies, such as artificial intelligence, may be used for this function.  Defense News

Colombia ELN Rebels Kill Nine Soldiers, Jeopardizing Peace Talks.  Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group killed nine Colombian soldiers in an attack near the border with Venezuela on Wednesday.  The ELN attackers reportedly used long-range weapons and improvised explosive devices on the soldiers, who were securing a pipeline in the northern Norte de Santander state, which is a key area for producing cocaine.  The attack was the deadliest in months and has potentially endangered ongoing peace talks between ELN and the Colombian government.  Increasing violence from the ELN over the past few weeks is damaging confidence in the group’s commitment to peace.  ELN did not comment on the latest attack.  France 24 Reuters

Bolsonaro Returns to Brazil.  Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has returned to Brazil after spending three months in Florida.  Bolsonaro now faces a number of investigations, including a probe into whether he incited the January 8 attack on government buildings in the capital Brasilia.  Bolsonaro told reporters that he is returning to “prepare for next year’s election,” though he said he would not lead the opposition to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who Bolsonaro still has not conceded last year’s election to.  Axios BBC New York Times

Honduras President to Visit China.  The Honduran Foreign Ministry tweeted on Wednesday that President Xiomara Castro will visit China at an undisclosed date in the near future. Her trip comes after Honduras cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China.  Honduras allegedly demanded increased aid and debt restructuring from Taipei before switching official recognition to Beijing.  Taiwan now only has 13 formal diplomatic allies.  Reuters 

Western Europe

Germany Commits Additional 12 Billion Euros in Ukraine Military Support.  On Wednesday, The Budget Committee of the German Bundestag announced the decision to send Ukraine 12 billion euros in military aid, at the request of Germany’s foreign office and defense ministry.  The funding includes 3.2 billion euros which will be distributed in 2023 so that Ukraine can independently purchase weapons.  The remaining 8.8 billion euros will go towards credit lines between 2024-2032.  According to the foreign office, Germany has given more than 14.2 billion euros in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion one year ago.  Bloomberg Reuters 

UK’s King Charles Visits Germany. King Charles III along with Queen Consort Camilla made his first trip abroad since becoming monarch to Germany this past week. During his visit, The King is expected to meet with German leaders, and also address the Bundestag. He will be the first British monarch to do so. The King was set to visit France before Germany, but that leg of the trip was canceled due to ongoing protests in France.  Deutsche Welle

Denmark Retrieves Object Near Nord Stream Pipelines, Says No Safety Risk.  The Danish Energy Agency announced that the Danish Navy has recovered an unidentified object found near the last remaining intact Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.  The agency said the object appears to be an empty maritime buoy and does not pose a safety risk.  The object had been of interest for several weeks amid ongoing investigations into the Nord Stream blasts.  Denmark invited the Russian-controlled Nord Stream operator to assist in retrieving the object.  A representative from the Swiss-based operator was reportedly present at the retrieval.  Barron’s Reuters

Turkey Set to Approve Finland’s NATO Membership Bid. Turkey’s parliament is scheduled to vote on approving Finland’s bid to join NATO on Thursday.  Ankara is expected to approve, which will pave the way for the Nordic nation’s membership in the alliance. Finland’s membership is largely viewed as an enhancement of NATO security and its ability to deter aggression.  New York Times

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Detains Wall Street Journal Reporter, Accusing Him of Espionage.  Russian authorities said earlier today that they have detained an American journalist, Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal correspondent based in Moscow, and are accusing him of espionage. The Federal Security Service (FSB) said in a statement that Mr. Gershkovich was acting “on the instructions of the United States” and was collecting information about one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, which constitutes a state secret. Mr. Gershkovich was detained in Yekaterinburg, about 900 miles east of Moscow in the Ural mountains, according to Russian state-run news outlets. The Wall Street Journal has since responded that it “vehemently denies the allegations from the FSB” and seeks the immediate release of Mr. Gershkovich. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has yet to comment on the report, but the arrest of Mr. Gershkovich represents a significant escalation of Moscow’s hostility to foreign news organizations, many of which have reduced or removed their presence from the country since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Mr. Gershkovich faces up to 20 years in prison under Russia’s criminal code; espionage trials in Russia can take months and are usually conducted in secret.  New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Wagner Chief Says Bakhmut Battle has Damaged His Mercenary Group.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Wednesday that fighting in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has “practically destroyed the Ukrainian army” but has also “badly damaged the Wagner Private Military Company.”  Russia is continuing to attack Bakhmut in street-by-street fighting but has failed to encircle the city and drive out Ukrainian forces there.  Ukraine’s general staff says Russia has had “a degree of success” in storming the embattled city but that Ukrainian defenders continue to hold the city and repel Russian assaults.  The Institute for the Study of War notes Wagner forces have made some gains in Bakhmut, such as by seizing an industrial complex in the north of the city, but that fighting is ongoing.  Deutsche Welle ISW Reuters

Russian, Iranian Foreign Ministers Meet in Moscow.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss ways to strengthen security ties and strategic and long-term cooperation.  Abdollahian said at the meeting that Russia and Iran are working towards a formal cooperation agreement.  Lavrov added that Moscow backs Iran’s “Hormoz Peace Plan” for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman and also said Russia supports a return to the 2015 nuclear deal.  The two foreign ministers also likely discussed Iranian military support for Russia amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  ISW

Asia

Chinese Scientists Shrink Satellite-Killing Microwave Weapon with New Power Source.  In the ongoing race to devise ever more effective satellite killing weaponry, military scientists in China say they have built a compact power source that could be used for a high-power microwave weapon. The Chinese team says the technology can produce an intense directed energy that could send microwave beams strong enough to fry chips in drones, planes or even satellites. A potential target, the team added, could be Elon Musk’s Starlink network, which at times operates in partnership with the Pentagon. Starlink services in Ukraine are also considered key to the country in its ongoing war with Russia.  South China Morning Post

Southeast Asia Raises Concerns Over U.S.-China Rivalry.  Southeast Asian leaders attending the Boao Forum for Asia in the southern Chinese province of Hainan are raising concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and China.  They say they are worried that a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China will have grave spillover effects into Southeast Asia, which is economically dependent on China but has strong security ties with the U.S.  Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told the forum that the rift between Washington and Beijing is already having impacts on the regional economy, through onshoring and friend-shoring of supply chains, and hampering efforts to address global problems.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim echoed these concerns, highlighting that current competition is increasingly turning towards cutting-edge technology like semiconductors, which “will only raise costs and impede further progress.”  Southeast Asia has largely avoided taking sides when it comes to the U.S.-China rivalry and are calling for restraint and collaboration where possible.  South China Morning Post

Pakistani Armed Groups Using Weapons Left by U.S. in Afghanistan.  The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan continues to cast a long, dark shadow.  When U.S. forces pulled out in 2021, they left roughly $7 billion worth of military equipment that was seized by the Taliban.  Experts and security officials say some of this hardware is ending up in Pakistan and being used by armed groups like the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ethnic Baluch separatist groups.  Analysts say these groups are now significantly more lethal with the U.S. weapons, which is a major challenge to the lesser-equipped Pakistani police force.  The Pentagon says there is no realistic way to recover the lost arms and equipment, leaving few options to prevent instability in the region caused by this influx of weapons.  RFE/RL

Middle East and Northern Africa

Syria Condemns Israel for Damascus Missile Strike.  Syria’s foreign ministry says Israel launched a missile attack near the capital Damascus late Wednesday night, wounding two soldiers.  The ministry said the attack, which was launched from the Golan Heights, was Israel’s “attempt to escape internal fragmentation,” referring to ongoing unrest in Israel against a judicial reform plan.  The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights appeared to confirm the attack, saying it was the fifth Israeli missile strike to hit Syria this month.  Israel did not comment on the attack.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

VP Harris Headed to Tanzania.  U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’s week-long tour of Africa continues as she arrives in Tanzania Wednesday evening. This trip, in addition to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visits to African countries recently, are part of efforts by the U.S. government to counteract Chinese and Russian influence in the region.  Reuters 

Germany to Deploy Troops Under EU Mission in Niger.  Germany is planning to deploy up to 60 soldiers to Niger as part of a European Union peacekeeping operation. The three year long military mission, which was decided on in December, aims to help the Niger government build-up its military forces. The plan has not yet been approved, as the German parliament still has to vote on the decision which is expected to happen at the end of April.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

Google Reveals Global Spyware Campaigns Targeting Apple, Android Devices. A report from Google’s Threat Analysis Group revealed that two spyware campaigns exploited zero-day vulnerabilities to target Apple and Android devices. The spyware vendors were not named, but one of the landing pages used was identical to one from the Spanish spyware firm Variston IT. The researchers revealed that because of this, the group behind the campaign may be a Variston customer or partner. Google did not reveal the number of people targeted in the campaigns.  CyberScoop

CISA Director Warns Agency Budget Would Be Return to ‘Pre-SolarWinds World.’  CISA Director Jen Easterly is calling for a 5 percent increase in her agency’s funding to a total of $3.1 billion to address cybersecurity threats from China and other threat actors.  Speaking before House Appropriation members, Easterly said a reduction in funding will have a “severely negative impact,” noting that if funding drops below the 2022 level of $2.6 billion, the agency will need to cut back on certain programs, which will bring the U.S. “back in a pre-SolarWinds world” with lessened cyber awareness and capabilities.  Easterly added that much of the new funding for CISA in fiscal 2024 would go to expanding ties with state and local partners and smaller critical infrastructure entities.  The funding will also support a critical infrastructure cyber incident reporting program and hiring initiatives.  CyberScoop

Microsoft Unveils AI Cybersecurity Chatbot.  Microsoft said Tuesday that it had created a chatbot intended to assist cybersecurity professionals fix critical issues and find ways to fix them. The Microsoft Security Copilot employs GPT-1, the most recent language model from OpenAI. The system, which Microsoft was reportedly in talks to invest as much as $10 billion, will also help engage in supercomputing at scale and create new AI-powered experiences, the release said.  CNBC Reuters Washington Post

A.I. Computing Startup Releases Open Source Models.  Silicon Valley-based artificial intelligence startup Cerebras Systems says it has open source language models similar to ChatGPT for researchers and the business community to work with.  The models are trained on Cerebras’ Andromeda AI supercomputer and have been released to foster collaboration and innovation.  The models also add to the few that are trained on alternatives to Nvidia Corp’s chips.  Reuters

French Parliament Approves Paris Olympics Use of Intelligent Surveillance Tools. French lawmakers approved a bill for the 2024 Paris Olympics that will legalize the temporary use of intelligent surveillance systems to safeguard the games. Critics of the proposed rule have argued that this will open the door for privacy invasive surveillance technology in France and other places in Europe. French authorities say that the surveillance will not involve facial recognition.  Associated Press

DoD Ramps Up Space Force Programs as China, Russia Space-Based Threats Grow. The White House and Pentagon are preparing to ramp up US Space Force spending and programs, as the threat of potential space conflict with Russia and China grows. All three countries are signatories to the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. Earlier this month, the White House proposed increasing the annual budget from $4 billion to $30 billion. Part of the spending request includes plans for simulators and other equipment to train Space Force Guardians.  Wall Street Journal

WiFi Protocol Flaw Allows Attackers to Hijack Network Traffic.  Cybersecurity researchers at Northeastern University and imec-DistriNet, KU Leuven have discovered a security flaw in the IEEE 802.11 WiFi protocol standard according to a report. The vulnerability would allow hackers to “trick access points into leaking network frames in plaintext form.” The researchers also found that queued/buffered frames are not protected from threat actors, who can easily “manipulate data transmission, client spoofing, frame redirection, and capturing.”  BleepingComputer

Tesla Vehicles Vulnerable to Remote Hacker Interference. Researchers at the cybersecurity firm Skynacktiv have found three vulnerabilities chained together that would allow hackers to remotely hack into a Tesla and manipulate the car’s functions and systems. According to the researchers, the hackers would only be able to annoy the driver with disruptive tactics such as opening the trunk, honking the horn, turning off and on the lights, etc. and would not actually give them access to turn the car on and off or control the wheel. Tesla has not commented on the report.  TechCrunch

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