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Thursday, March 23, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Blinken Highlights China, Russia Threats Before Congress and Warns China Capable of Taiwan Invasion by 2027.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that he agreed with CIA Director William Burns’ previous assessment that China will have the military capability to invade Taiwan by 2027.  He added that the best way for Washington to boost Taiwan’s defenses against this threat is by focusing on military sales and clearing its $19 billion arms sales backlog.  Blinken made the comments on Taiwan while testifying to a Senate panel about his department’s 2024 budget request of $63.1 billion, which he said would be focused on addressing the “acute threat from Russia” and the “long-term challenge from China.”  Regarding recent China-Russia relations, Blinken downplayed Beijing’s recent engagement with Moscow as a “marriage of convenience” brought about by shared adversarial positions against the U.S.  He highlighted the fact that China has yet to provide lethal aid to Russia amid the Ukraine war as a sign of the limits in Beijing’s interests with Moscow.  Bloomberg South China Morning Post U.S. Department of State U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations

TikTok CEO to Face Fierce Congress Hearing.  TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is set to face fierce questioning at a much-anticipated congressional hearing about the app on Thursday.  Chew has reportedly prepared remarks in which he will defend TikTok’s promises to protect the data of its 150 million American users from foreign access and government manipulation.  Lawmakers at the hearing will likely grill Chew on TikTok’s relationship with the Chinese government, data-collection activities and reports that employees from the app’s parent company, ByteDance, spied on journalists.  Experts say the fate of TikTok, which faces a potential U.S. ban, will depend heavily on Chew’s testimony.  BBC Wall Street Journal

Biden to Meet with Trudeau Political Rival During Canada Visit. President Joe Biden is set to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, during his visit to Canada this week.  Officials say Biden will have a “pull aside” with the opposition leader in addition to talks with Trudeau. It is not uncommon for US presidents to meet with both the current government and the opposition during visits to Canada.  Reuters

Taiwan Recalls Ambassador to Honduras as End of Formal Diplomatic Relations Nears.  Taiwan says it is recalling its ambassador to Honduras over the Honduran foreign minister’s planned visit to Beijing this week, which will likely cement the Central American country’s decision to switch diplomatic recognition to China.  Taiwan’s foreign ministry said the trip “ignores the traditional friendship” between Honduras and Taiwan, adding that Taipei has repeatedly warned the Honduran government of trusting China.  Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the Honduras situation is “not very good” and that it was “very obvious” that China has worked to poach the diplomatic ally from Taiwan.  Wu also signaled that Honduras demanded $2.5 billion in aid from Taiwan to maintain diplomatic relations, saying “the other side demanded a high price.”  Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina denied the accusation, saying Honduras requested Taiwan buy $2.5 billion of its public debt.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Western Europe

EU Navigates Fragile China Relations Following Xi-Putin Meeting.  In the wake of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, EU officials are raising concerns about the future of Brussels’ ties with Beijing but are largely cautious about further escalating tensions with China in what one expert said would be the opening of a “political Pandora’s Box.”  The EU has clashed with China over its refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other issues like reported Chinese abuses against Uighurs in Xinjiang and the WTO dispute.  However, experts and officials note that the bloc first and foremost wants to maintain trade relations with China, a position underscored by European Commission President Urusla von der Leyen’s comments in January that the EU wants to “de-risk” but not “decouple” from China.  While this preference for stable relations for economic ties is the overarching policy for both the EU and China, this fragile state will ultimately depend on how Beijing proceeds with its relationship with Russia.  Deutsche Welle

UK Investigating Alleged ‘Unlawful Killings’ by Special Forces in Afghanistan.  The UK has launched an independent inquiry into allegations that British forces carried out extrajudicial killings and failed to properly investigate reported killings of civilians while in Afghanistan between 2010-2013.  The British government ordered the inquiry in December in response to legal challenges from families of Afghans allegedly killed by British troops.  The inquiry follows recent media investigations into the alleged unlawful killings by at least one supposed rogue UK special forces unit or “death squad” during night-time raids.  Al Jazeera Financial Times Reuters The Guardian

Sweden Passes NATO Accession Bill.  Sweden’s parliament formally passed a bill that would allow the country to join NATO, but only after all 30 members of the alliance have ratified the country’s admission. Hungary and Turkey are the remaining alliance members who have yet to ratify the Nordic country’s membership bid. The bill passed with an overwhelming majority, with 296 in favor and 37 votes against.  Reuters

Austrian Foreign Minister Maintains Importance of Russia for Europe.  Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg defended Russia's importance to Europe in a statement to Reuters, and said that anyone who claims otherwise is “delusional.” Schallenberg also defended the country’s bank Raiffeisen Bank International, after it was singled out for doing business in Russia, despite other Western firms doing the same.  Schallengerg’s comments come after US sanctions authorities increased scrutiny of Raiffeisen bank and its business relations with Russia.  Reuters

Chinese Diplomat to the Netherlands Warns of Retaliation for Chip Restrictions.  China’s Envoy to the Netherlands Tan Jian told a Dutch newspaper that the Netherland’s recent decision to block exports to China of technology needed to make advanced semiconductors will result in consequences.  Tan says he won’t speculate what those consequences will be, but that Beijing ‘won’t just swallow this’.  The move comes following the Netherlands decision earlier this month to fall in line with US-led bans on exports to China of critical technology for advanced semiconductor chip manufacturing.  South China Morning Post

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelenskiy Visits Bakhmut, Vows Defiance Against Russian Attacks.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made a visit to the frontlines near the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.  Zelenskiy met with Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmut, which he last publicly visited in December 2022, and reiterated Ukraine’s intent to hold the embattled city despite continued Russian attacks.  Zelenskiy added that he also visited the city of Kharkiv, north of Bakhmut, to discuss reconstruction efforts there and for the rest of eastern Ukraine.  Zelenskiy’s trip to Bakhmut came as military experts said Russia’s offensive on the city could be stalling as it is degraded by fierce Ukrainian resistance.  Zelenskiy’s Bakhmut visit also came after drone and missile strikes hit the Kyiv region and Zaporizhzhia city, killing at least eight people total.  He condemned the strikes and said that Ukraine will “respond to every blow” by Russia with “military, political and legal” action.  Al Jazeera France 24 New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

Senior Ukrainian Officials Say Future Negotiations Not Likely to Include Putin.  Senior Ukrainian officials say that following the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine does not view as possible the idea of negotiating directly with Putin.  A senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy tweeted last week that the arrest warrant means that there will be no negotiations with the “Russian elite”.  That sentiment was echoed by Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, with Kuleba adding that Putin should have been put on trial over the downing of Malaysian Airliner MH 17 in 2014.  Politico

Russia Warns Risk of Nuclear Conflict Highest in Decades.  At an event called “A World Without START: What’s Next,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the risk of a nuclear conflict was at the highest level that it has been in decades. Ryabkov also added that the US and Russia were in a “de-facto open conflict” over the War in Ukraine. Ryabkov’s comments come a month after Moscow pulled out of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty in February.  Reuters

U.N. Says Belarus Could be Guilty of Crimes Against Humanity.  UN officials say that Belarus may be guilty of crimes against humanity related to its imprisonment and alleged abuse of political opponents, human rights activists, and journalists.  The UN Human Rights Commissioner cited widespread, systemic and ‘gross human rights’ violations related to anti-government protests dating back to 2020.  The NY Times says that some detainees reported inhumane treatment and beatings that left some unable to walk.  The Belarus Ambassador to the UN rejected the report as biased, and says her country does not have political prisoners, only people who ‘broke the law’.  New York Times

Putin Shifts Energy Focus to China in Hopes of Saving Economy. Politico is out with a new report that analyzes Moscow’s recent attempts to shore up its struggling economy by turning to China to replace lost energy revenues from Europe.  Analysts say that despite Putin’s claim of a new energy deal with Beijing to supply oil, that Moscow will struggle to meet the demand with its current infrastructure which is oriented towards Europe.  Analysts also point to the fact that Russia is the junior partner in its relationship with Beijing, who is pressing its advantage to negotiate very favorable terms in its purchases of oil.  This comes as Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned recently that Russia’s economy, already facing massive deficits, could run out of money as soon as this year.  Politico

Asia

Beijing Enters New Phase of Challenging the U.S.-Led Global Order.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a lengthy report that examines China’s new assertiveness in global affairs.  Citing the recent peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and China’s willingness to engage in the Ukraine war as examples of Xi Jinping’s new bold approach to China’s position on the world stage, the report says that China may have entered a new phase where it seeks to draw like minded nations into its circle and that it sees itself as no longer having to comply with the US led world order.  Wall Street Journal 

China, Russia Attempt to Increase Diplomatic Pressure on US.  Following the visit to Russia by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Moscow and Beijing released a joint statement where they call on the US and allies to clarify their position on bioweapons and urge the nations to take steps to reduce nuclear risk.  The statement says that the US and Japan should clarify their position on bio-military activities and should refrain from activities that violate the Biological Weapons Convention.  The statement also called on nuclear-armed nations to remove nuclear weapons that are deployed outside of its territory, in a veiled reference to the United States.  South China Morning Post

China Accuses U.S. Warship of Illegally Entering Waters in South China Sea.  The Chinese military said Thursday that a U.S. guided-missile destroyer illegally entered China’s territorial waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.  China’s Southern Theatre Command said it monitored and drove away the warship, the USS Milius, and criticized the naval vessel for threatening peace and stability in the region.  The US Navy said the USS Milius was not expelled from the area and was conducting “routine operations” as permitted by international law.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Russia Boosts Defenses on Contested Island Chain Near Japan.  Russia’s defense ministry says it has deployed a division of its Bastion coastal defense systems to Paramushir, an island in the contested Kuril Islands.  Japan claims some of the Kuril Islands, which were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.  While Tokyo does not claim Paramushir, competing claims over the islands remain a sore point in Japanese-Russian relations.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the deployment of the Bastion system to Paramushir will bolster Russian security in the Kuril Islands and Russia’s Far East and help counter efforts by the U.S. to “contain” both Russia and China in the region.  Al Jazeera

India Under Spotlight for Russia Energy Ties.  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Kyiv have not only turned attention towards Eastern Europe and East Asia, but also towards India.  New Delhi has been trying to maintain a neutral position amid the Ukraine war as it manages relations with Western allies with long-standing ties to Russia.  This can especially be seen in India’s decision to, like China, increase purchases of Russian oil to take advantage of Western price caps.  With Xi’s promise in Moscow to expand trade ties signaling that China will continue to buy up Russian oil and gas, analysts say Western countries may increase pressure on India to lessen Russian energy imports as a counter.  Kishida’s recent actions point to this as he preceded his trip to Ukraine with a visit to India, where he called for greater security and economic ties and invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the upcoming G7 summit in Hiroshima.  While experts say it is not likely for India to slow Russian gas supplies any time soon, it is clear that New Delhi will face further difficulty navigating the ever diverging blocs between the West and its rivals in the international order.  South China Morning Post

U.S. Says North Korea Not Preparing Imminent Nuclear Tests.  Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told reporters on Wednesday that North Korea does not appear to be preparing to conduct any nuclear testing during ongoing joint US-South Korea military drills.  U.S. officials have warned for the last year of the possibility of Pyongyang resuming nuclear drills for the first time since 2017, saying such testing could be timed with the ongoing Freedom Shield 23 drills, which end on Thursday.  While Berrier said there is no imminent sign of a resumption in nuclear tests, he warned that North Korea “will uncork that at a time and place of his choosing” and that the U.S. should vigilantly watch for this.  Reuters

U.S., South Korea Start Joint Amphibious Landing Drills.  While the U.S. and South Korea’s joint Freedom Shield 23 drills are coming to an end, the two countries have begun additional amphibious landing drills.  Officials say the Ssangyong exercise, which started Monday, will involve 12,000 sailors from both countries, 30 warships, 70 aircraft and 50 amphibious assault ships, including the US amphibious assault ship USS Makin.  The amphibious drills will last until April 3.  The announcement about the exercise on Thursday came a day after North Korea tested four cruise missiles in protest of ongoing military drills between the U.S. and South Korea.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

US Export Restrictions Halt UAE’s Plans to Join China Space Mission to the Moon.  The South China Morning Post is out with a report that says US export restrictions will prevent the UAE from participating in a planned space mission to the moon in 2024 citing two sources familiar with the matter.  The mission would have seen the UAE’s Rashid 2 rover delivered to the moon’s surface aboard a Chinese spacecraft, but is currently on hold as US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) rules prohibit the transfer of sensitive US technology abroad without a license.  The report did not cite which specific components of the Rashid 2 fall under U.S. ITAR restrictions.  South China Morning Post  

Investors from Saudi Arabia and UAE Expected to Invest in SpaceX.  According to a report from The Information, a group from Saudi Arabia’s investment fund and a company based in Abu Dhabi are expected to invest in SpaceX. The investment – by Saudi Arabia’s Water and Electricity Holding Company and the UAE’s Alpha Dhabi – is expected to be valued at around $140 billion.  Neither of the companies reportedly involved have commented on the plan.  Reuters The Information

Saudi and Iranian Foreign Ministers to Meet, Discuss Embassy Re-openings. Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian have agreed to meet soon and work towards reopening embassies.  Iranian state news agency IRNA confirmed that the two spoke over the phone about the planned meeting.  This comes after the two countries signed a China-brokered deal at the beginning of March to restore diplomatic relations.   Reuters

U.S. Working to Re-Establish Diplomatic Presence in Libya.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the U.S. is working to re-establish a diplomatic presence in Libya, though he was unable to provide a “timetable” for this process.  The U.S. closed its embassy in Tripoli in 2014 at the start of the civil war that followed the NATO-backed ousting of Muammar Gaddafi.  Current U.S. diplomatic efforts on Libya come as the country tries to get past a stalled political process to enable elections.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

NSTR

Cyber & Tech

UK Launches National Health Service Cybersecurity Strategy.  The British government released a cybersecurity strategy for the National Health Service on Wednesday.  The strategy seeks to “significantly” bolster the NHS against cyberattacks by 2030 through stronger monitoring systems and a new security framework.  The strategy comes after the 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack and cyberattack against software supplier Advanced last year which disrupted NHS services and operations.  While the strategy says NHS cybersecurity has improved after these incidents, it still notes heightened risk from ransomware and the challenge of protecting the decentralized network of health systems that make up the NHS.  The Record

U.S. State Governments Using Code that Gathers Data for TikTok Parent Company.  Over two dozen U.S. state governments have embedded web-tracking code made by ByteDance Ltd., the Chinese creator of TikTok, on their official websites.  A report by software security company Feroot Security shows that ByteDance’s so-called tracking pixels are present in state-government websites across 27 states.  The pixels measure engagement with TikTok advertisements, which means the state-governments using them are inadvertently participating in data-collection activities by ByteDance.  TikTok maintains the code is used to improve advertising services and that advertisers are instructed not to share certain data with the company.  The reassurance is unlikely to calm U.S. officials fearful of potential data security threats from TikTok as the proliferation of the pixels shows targeting the app alone may not address all risks.  Wall Street Journal

EU Cyber Agency Warns of Escalated Ransomware Attacks Against Transport Sector.  The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) released its first analysis on the transportation sector, which concludes that ransomware attacks remain the biggest threat to the industry.  The report says that while past ransomware attacks have focused on IT systems, attacks will likely begin targeting operational technology (OT) systems more “in the foreseeable future,” raising higher risks for the mechanical processes in transportation infrastructure.  The report adds that while cybercriminals were largely responsible for past attacks on the sector, state-sponsored groups are likely to increase activities, especially against targets in the maritime sector.  The report follows increased attacks on transportation infrastructure related to the Ukraine war.  BankInfoSecurity The Record

U.S. Semiconductor Firm Shuts Down Entire China-Based R&D Team.  U.S. semiconductor company Marvell Technology is eliminating its entire research and development team in mainland China.  The company said its move to lay off its entire Chinese R&D unit – which included 320 employees, or 4 percent of the company’s global workforce – is in response to an industry slowdown and a decision to “concentrate China-based resources to customer-facing teams.”  The move follows similar lay-offs at Marvell’s offices in Shanghai and Chengdu last October and comes amid widespread instability for those employed in the semiconductor industry over the massive increase in global chip inventories.  South China Morning Post

BreachForums Shuts Down After Suspected Law Enforcement Access.  The new administrator of the cybercriminal platform BreachForums said they are shutting down the site for good.  The administrator, a hacker that goes by “Baphomet,” previously said they would take over and continue operating the site after U.S. authorities arrested the previous administrator, Conor Brian Fitzpatrick, last week.  Baphomet turned back on this decision after discovering someone used Fitzpatrick’s alleged account to get backend access to the platform, potentially compromising the forum’s code and information on its users.  Baphomet said they will organize a group for those interested in creating a successor to BreachForums and will work with competitor forums on next steps.  BleepingComputer The Record

Commerce Issues Rules to Block China from $52 Billion Chips Funding. The US Commerce Department released a proposed set of rules that would prevent China and other countries of concern from using the $52 billion in semiconductor R&D funding, which will come from a planned chip manufacturing subsidy program.  The rules on the funding would prevent recipients from investing in semiconductor manufacturing in listed countries of concern, and would also limit funds with companies that engage in joint research with foreign entities of concern. It also tightens restrictions on some semiconductor chips by deeming them as critical to national security.  The Commerce Department will begin accepting applications to the subsidy program in June.  Bloomberg Reuters

Cyber Researchers Say Ransomware Extortion Efforts Intensifying. The Palo Alto Networks and Unit 42 released a report claiming that ransomware threat actors are intensifying their efforts against targets with a variety of different extortion tactics. According to the report, ransomware attacks that involved data theft rose from 40% in mid 2021, to 70% by the end of 2022. Unit 42’s CTO Michael Sikorski said this increase in extortion comes from the shift towards quicker encryption of targeted systems and the rising use of multiple extortion tactics.  Cybersecurity Dive

Nvidia Plan to Rent Supercomputers Could Trigger AI Boom.  Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang announced earlier this week the company’s plan to make supercomputers used for AI technologies such as ChatGPT available for rent. Huang signaled that the computers will be available to nearly any business, saying that Nvidia is working with Oracle Corp and other partners to offer access to the supercomputers to “anyone who can log on with a web browser.”  Renting the computers will come at a price tag of $37,000 a month for eight of the A100 or H100 chips.  It is believed that making these computers more accessible will accelerate the impending AI boom.  Reuters

DoD CIO Urging Development of Alternatives to Vulnerable GPS Systems. Department of Defense CIO John Sherman said at the AFCEA NOVA’s Space Force IT Day that given the rise in global tensions, it is essential that the DoD adopt alternatives to the current GPS systems, which has been the “gold standard” of the military’s positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) operations for decades.  Sherman cited the urgent need to develop alternatives ahead of any future conflict. Sherman cited ongoing US Army efforts to develop new PNT technologies and added that the events in Ukraine have increased the need to develop new field communication technologies.  Defense Scoop

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