Report for Thursday, March 14, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

China leads U.S., Russia in development of operational hypersonic weapons

U.S. held secret talks with Iran over Red Sea attacks.

Germany’s Scholz ‘emergency’ Ukraine summit comes as domestic coalition partners pressure him to deliver Taurus missiles

Trump launched CIA covert influence operation against China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — After TikTok Vote, Will a Ban or Sale Come Next?

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli defense minister visits northern Gaza.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited northern Gaza on Wednesday, amid mounting pressure to increase aid delivery to the enclave.  Israel’s defense ministry said that during his visit, Gallant observed preparation for a U.S.-led maritime aid corridor and emphasized “the humanitarian element” of getting aid into Gaza “a central issue.”  Gallant also hinted at a potential ground offensive into Rafah in southern Gaza, despite warnings from allies against such actions.  He did not explicitly mention Rafah, saying only terrorists have no safe haven in Gaza and that Israel “can reach any region.”  New York Times

Israeli forces bomb UN aid warehouse in Rafah to kill key Hamas commander. Israeli Defense Forces on Wednesday announced in a tweet that an airstrike had killed Muhammad Abu Hasna, a commander in Hamas’ Operations Unit in Rafah. The IDF accused Hasna of stealing humanitarian aid meant for civilians and diverting it to Hamas, coordinating Hamas units and running an operations room that provided information about IDF positions to Hamas fighters. The IDF said Hasna was targeted with precise information from AMN, Israeli military intelligence, and Shin Bet, Israeli’s law enforcement agency.  What the IDF tweet didn’t say, but news reports did, was that the bombing raid aiming for Hasna hit an aid warehouse used by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, the largest humanitarian aid organization in Gaza, and that the strike killed at least one aid worker and injured 22 others,some severely, according to UNRWA officials.   More than 50 staff members were working at the facility when the airstrike hit around noon, The New York Times reported, quoting Juliette Touma, UNRWA’s director of communications.  According to the BBC, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini said, "Today's attack on one of the very few remaining UNRWA distribution centers in the Gaza Strip comes as food supplies are running out, hunger is widespread and, in some areas, turning into famine.  Every day, we share the coordinates of all our facilities across the Gaza Strip with parties to the conflict. The Israeli army received the coordinates, including this facility yesterday."  Asked about Lazzarini’s assertion that Israel knew it was hitting an aid facility, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken responded sternly that Israel should have had “much better and much more consistent deconfliction” to avoid such misfortunes.  “Humanitarian workers, the agencies, they need to be able to do their jobs in – with as much security and as much confidence as is possible,” Blinken told reporters in an afternoon news conference.   “And look, you’re in a war zone.  You have a terrorist group that is firing from hospitals, from schools, from apartment buildings.  But the Israeli military, the Israeli Government, has a responsibility and an obligation to do everything possible to ensure that the humanitarians can do their jobs.”  Blinken went on to emphasize the difficult nature of conducting operations in the war zone but stressed that the Israeli government must protect aid workers.  Jerusalem Post Times of Israel  X  New York Times BBC Washington Post U.S. State Department  

Does Israel have a plan to protect civilians from an IDF  ground assault aiming to clear Hamas out of  Rafah?  Blinken says he hasn’t seen it.  Israel plans to tell 1.4 million Palestinians sheltering in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, to clear out and move north to central Gaza before the Israeli military mounts its offensive into the city, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.  Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the IDF, said that civilians would be directed toward “humanitarian islands” with temporary housing, food, water and other necessities. The IDF’s aim is to destroy four Hamas battalions that it says is hiding amongst Rafah’s civilians, many of them driven from other parts of Gaza, living in exposed tent camps and, according to humanitarian workers, starving.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, speaking to reporters Wednesday, expressed skepticism about the IDF notion of moving civilians out of Rafah before the fighting intensifies.  “The imperative, as we see it and as President Biden has clearly expressed it, that there has to be – if there are going to be military operations in Rafah – a clear and implementable plan to get the civilians out of harm’s way and to provide for them once out of harm’s way, we have not seen that plan,” Blinken said.  “Is it – is it possible?  Yes, it’s possible, but we haven’t seen it, and the most important thing is to see it and to make sure that it’s something that can be implemented in a way that accomplishes what has to be accomplished, which is protecting people and supporting people…”  “All I can say is we need to see a plan for the civilians, and we’ll wait for that.”  Blinken added, “when it comes to humanitarian assistance for Gaza…One of the challenges…that you’re seeing now is that lawlessness, insecurity – all of that pervades in Gaza, combined with desperation.  When you put those things together, you have situations where aid goes in and then people immediately charge at the trucks, and you see looting, you see criminal gangs get in the act, and again, just ordinary civilians who – and in the absence of sufficient aid – may believe that their only chance to get a piece of bread is to go at the one truck that they see coming in.  When you have a sustainable, predictable, confident supply of assistance going in, that will give people confidence that food is there, it’ll keep coming, they can rely on it.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a key mediator between Israel and Hamas, warned Israel against unleashing a ground invasion into Rafah.   Speaking at a news conference in Cair with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, El-Sisi said Israel bears the responsibility to protect the civilian population in accordance with international law.   U.S. State Department   Washington Post  Al Jazeera   Bloomberg Reuters

U.K.’s Shapps blocks British air drops over civilian risk.  The U.S. Central Command dropped over 35,712 U.S. meals and 28,800 bottles of water into northern Gaza Wednesday.  The airlift, the ninth for the Gaza mission, was conducted by two C-130s and one C-17 Globemaster III U.S. Air Force aircraft. The Royal Air Force was barred from carrying out a similar mission by U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, because of concerns that the air drops were dangerous, Bloomberg reported.  Shapps was troubled by reports that five people were killed by an airdrop last week.  The U.S. said its airdrops have not hurt anyone.  Without doubt, airdrops are expensive and can’t deliver nearly enough food and water for the Gaza population.  Airdrops are “a complement to – not a substitute for – other ways of getting humanitarian assistance into Gaza,” U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Wednesday.  “Overland routes remain the most critical way to get assistance in and then to people who need it.  But this will help close the gap.”   Bloomberg Al Jazeera CENTCOM

U.N. says Gaza aid deliveries rejected for ‘dual-use items.  Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the main U.N. agency supporting Palestinians in Gaza, said Israel blocked an aid truck from entering the enclave because it contained medical scissors in medical kits, which Israel considers a “dual-use” item.  Israel’s COGAT agency, which oversees aid deliveries into Gaza, denied the claim and said it was not notified of the denial.  Other officials have raised issues with Israel’s denial of aid identified as dual use, saying the list of banned items is broad and often unclear, causing uncertainty and including items that are medically necessary.  COGAT says any trucks carrying aid that is turned away is repacked and enters Gaza later, and any bottleneck is a result of limited aid group distribution capacity.  New York Times 

IDF intelligence analysis chief resigning over Oct. 7 Hamas attack. IDF intelligence analysis chief Brig.-Gen. Amit Saar announced Wednesday he will resign his post once the IDF publishes its probe of the October 7 intelligence failures.  Saar sent Netanyahu four letters warning that Israeli adversaries might more aggressively attack Israel.  Netanyahu reportedly ignored most of the letters, according to the Jerusalem Post.   Jerusalem Post

Abbas set to appoint close advisor as Palestinian Authority PM.  Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas is set to appoint Muhammad Mustafa, a close economic advisor, as prime minister, according to Palestinian officials and a E.U. diplomat.  Officials and analysts say that if Mustafa is appointed, it will be a rejection by Abbas of international calls to appoint an independent premier to revitalize the PA.  Sources note that while Abbas is intent on naming Mustafa, a longtime insider in the PA, to the position, he is still in final talks with Arab countries on the choice.  The decision will be final after Abbas signs a presidential decree on the appointment, after which the new prime minister has up to five weeks to form a government.  Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh resigned his cabinet in February, citing the need for a new government to address the “emerging reality” in Gaza.  Shtayyeh has continued since then in a caretaker capacity.  The U.S., which hopes for a reformed PA to take control of governance in post-war Gaza, has reportedly conveyed that it wants an independent figure to be the PA’s prime minister.  New York Times 

Israeli airstrike kills Hamas operative in Lebanon.  Israel’s military said on Wednesday that it killed senior Hamas operative Hadi Ali Mustafa in an airstrike in southern Lebanon.  The Israeli military said Mustafa had been responsible for Hamas’s international terrorist operations, with involvement in attacks “against Israeli and Jewish targets in various countries around the world.”  Hamas’s military wing confirmed Mustafa was killed but did not provide details on his role in the group.  Lebanese state media reported that the airstrike that killed Mustafa also killed a passing motorcyclist.  New York Times 

Hezbollah leader vows to continue fight against Israel.  Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to continue fighting against Israel, claiming that Israeli forces have not been honest about losses on the Israeli-Lebanese border.  Speaking in a televised statement Wednesday night, Nasrallah also claimed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has “lost the war” in Gaza since Hamas has not been defeated and is still able to impose conditions on negotiations.  He also criticized the U.S. position on the Israel-Hamas war as “hypocritical,” saying the U.S. can end the conflict by halting military aid to Israel and not blocking U.N. Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire.  His remarks come after Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah compounds earlier in the week.  CNN

South Africa says citizens fighting with Israeli forces in Gaza will be arrested. South African Foreign Minister Nadeli Pandor said at a Palestinian solidarity event this week that any South African citizens who fight with the Israeli military in Gaza will be arrested when they return home. Pandor also called for demonstrations outside the embassies of the “five primary” countries supporting the Israeli military action in Gaza. Al Jazeera

U.S. to sanction occupied West Bank outposts used by violent Israeli extremists.  The Biden administration is expected to impose new sanctions as soon as Thursday on two illegal outposts in the occupied West Bank that served as bases  for attacks by extremist Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians, Axios reported.  The sanctions would be first to be lodged against entire outposts, not just against individuals.  Nearly 500 Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians have been reported between Oct. 7 and Jan. 31 of this year, according to the UN humanitarian office (OCHA).  Axios Reuters

Israeli tank strike killed 'clearly identifiable' Reuters reporter.  A U.N. investigation has concluded that an Israeli tank killed Reuters reporter Isaam Abdullah and wounded six other journalists in Lebanon on October 13 when it fired on a group of “clearly identifiable journalists.” The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNFIL) said in a report seen by Reuters that the incident violated international law. Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Nir Dinar said of the incident that the IDF was responding to a Hezbollah attack on its forces and that the IDF deplores any injury to uninvolved parties. He added that the IDF will continue to investigate the incident. Reuters 

THE RED SEA

U.S. destroys 4 Houthi drones, missile.  U.S. forces destroyed four Houthi drones and a surface-to-air missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on Wednesday.  U.S. Central Command said the latest strike on Houthi weapons came after the group fired an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Gulf of Yemen.  No ship was hit in the attack.  CNN Reuters

U.S. held secret talks with Iran over Red Sea attacks.  The United States has engaged in secret talks with Iran in Oman, aiming to persuade Tehran to use its influence over Yemen's Houthi movement to halt attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Discussions also addressed concerns over Iran's nuclear program. The White House’s Middle East advisor Brett McGurk and Iran envoy Abram Paley led the U.S. delegation, while Iran’s deputy foreign minister and top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagherin Kani represented Tehran.  The negotiations, facilitated by Omani officials, were the first in 10 months between the two nations.  The talks come amidst escalating tensions in the region following the Israel-Hamas war. While Iran acknowledges political support for the Houthis, it claims they act independently.  There have been signs of Iran seeking to ease tensions with the U.S. following an attack by an Iranian proxy on a U.S. military base on the Jordan-Syria border that killed three American troops.  However, Houthi attacks continue and concerns persist over Iran’s expanding nuclear program.  Financial Times 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine war update: 91 combat clashes on battlefield in last 24 hours. The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said in a Facebook post that 91 combat engagements with Russian forces have been recorded along the front within the last 24 hours. The post said Russia launched 10 missile strikes, 84 air strikes and 123 rocket attacks on troops and settlements in those attacks, and that there were civilian casualties. The General Staff’s post said more than 110 settlements in several regions were under artillery fire. The post also said Ukrainian forces repelled numerous attacks in several regions, depleting enemy strength across the front line. In particular, the post said Ukrainian missiles have inflicted damage on three Russian manpower clusters, an ammunition depot and two air defense systems.  Ukrinform

Ukraine says ammunition from Czech-led initiative to arrive in ‘foreseeable future.’  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Czech officials will this week lay out a plan for speedy delivery of artillery shells to replenish Ukraine’s rapidly dwindling stocks. Czech President Petr Pavel is leading a drive in which 18 nations have given money for the purchase of 800,000 rounds of shells to Ukraine. It has secured funding for delivery of the first batch of 300,000. “The Czech initiative is good, but it is not enough,” Kuleba told reporters on Wednesday, citing other initiatives under way in Europe and America to help Ukraine. Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s ammunition shortage by going on the offensive, seeking more territorial gains since capturing the eastern city of Avdiivka last month. U.S. CIA Director William Burns has warned of Ukraine’s dire situation if Congress does not quickly pass $60 billion in fresh aid that is now stalled in the U.S. House of Representatives by Republican opposition. “They’re running out of ammunition, and we’re running out of time to help them,” Burns told U.S. senators on Monday. “Ukraine is likely to lose ground — and likely significant ground — in 2024.” Bloomberg 

Analysts say new U.S. military aid to help Ukraine short-term. Ukraine will likely burn through $300 million in fresh U.S. assistance in a matter of weeks on the battlefield. The package includes Stinger missiles, artillery rounds and anti-tank weapons to hold off the advancing Russians. The assistance, announced Tuesday, was cobbled together from Pentagon savings in contracts. Unless a $60 billion U.S. aid package is approved, Ukraine will remain vulnerable to Russia’s long-distance glide bombs and artillery barrages. The New York Times cited military analysts as saying Ukraine only has enough supply to fire 60,000 artillery shells per month, short of the 75,000 or more per month needed to sustain defenses and far short of the 200,000 or more needed monthly to go on the offensive. New York Times 

EU cash for Ukraine: The bloc agrees on a €5B weapons fund. After prolonged negotiations, European Union ambassadors agreed to establish a €5 billion Ukraine Assistance Fund under the European Peace Facility (EPF) to partially reimburse member states for military aid provided. This decision elevates the EPF's total to €17 billion, with €11 billion designated for Ukraine. The fund, crucial for Kyiv amid stalled U.S. aid, faced initial objections from France, Germany and Hungary over reimbursement criteria and equipment eligibility. The compromise allows flexibility in reimbursement and aims to encourage EU-made equipment procurement, addressing both immediate Ukrainian needs and the EU's long-term defense industry goals. The formal adoption is expected at an upcoming EU foreign ministers' meeting. Politico

Germany’s Scholz ‘emergency’ Ukraine summit comes as domestic coalition partners pressure him to deliver Taurus missiles. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to Berlin on Friday in an attempt to bolster military aid to an outgunned Ukraine. Tusk said he will update his colleagues on his talks with U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House on Tuesday. Tusk, who called for the meeting of the so-called Weimar Triangle group, said that if Warsaw, Paris and Berlin act together, they have the power to “mobilize all of Europe.” The meeting comes as Scholz’s coalition partners – the Greens and Free Democrats – are pressuring him to drop his opposition to sending Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. The precision missiles can hit hardened targets as far as 311 miles away. Scholz fears that Germany can be drawn into a direct conflict with Russia if Ukraine uses the missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. Opponents say technical safeguards, such as reducing the range of the Taurus, can mitigate such fears. Bloomberg Bloomberg 

ANALYSIS — Ukraine needs 500,000 military recruits. Ukraine aims to recruit 500,000 fresh soldiers in 2024 to bolster the ranks of an estimated 330,000 troops deployed on the frontlines, most of whom have been serving with minimal time off during more than two years of fighting and currently with no prospects for being discharged. Ukraine’s age of conscription is 27, comparatively high for a nation at war, leaving it with an army whose soldiers are in their 40s on average. A new mobilization law, which seeks to lower the draft age to 25, may be voted on in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, on March 31. Many controversial elements are still being debated – such as punishment for draft evasion and plans to exclude “critical workers” and others from the draft. The Financial Times says parliament’s data shows that out of 11.1 million men from 25-60, only 3.7 million are eligible for mobilization. The rest are already fighting, disabled, living in Russian-occupied territory, abroad or critical workers. Analysts have also found that Ukraine’s open-ended service requirement and fears that the West will stop helping Ukraine are deterring men from joining the military. Ukraine’s government has estimated the mobilization will cost nearly $21 billion on top of the nation’s $41 billion budget deficit in 2024. Financial Times  Kyiv Independent 

EU grants Russian tech tycoon rare sanctions relief. The European Union has removed Arkady Volozh, Yandex's co-founder, from its sanctions list, marking a significant deviation from its stance on penalizing Russian elites for the invasion of Ukraine. Volozh, a notable figure in the tech industry, distanced himself from Russia by condemning the war and severing ties with the country, leading to the EU's decision. This move, praised by some Russian opposition members, illustrates a strategy shift, suggesting sanctions could be lifted for those who publicly denounce the war. Volozh resigned from Yandex, known as Russia’s Google. Hundreds of Russians have faced Western sanctions since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in 202. New York Times 

NATO, China discuss war in Ukraine at military staff talks. China and NATO conducted their eighth military staff dialogue in Beijing, discussing global and regional security issues, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and maritime security. Both parties highlighted the importance of continued engagement despite differences. The dialogue follows Sweden's recent NATO membership, bringing the alliance to 32 member nations. The talks occurred as China began joint naval exercises with Russia and Iran in the Gulf of Oman, and NATO conducts its largest military drills in decades. The NATO delegation was headed by Major General Dacian-Tiberiu Serban, director of the cooperative security division. The leader of China's delegation was Major General Yao Qin, deputy director of the office for international military cooperation.Kyiv Independent Reuters Ukrainska Pravda

Yermak discusses Ukrainian peace formula with Chinese ambassador.  Andrii Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, discussed the nation’s peace formula with Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong. The talks summarized a recent visit by China's Special Representative Li Hui. They outlined cooperation areas, especially regarding Ukraine's peace initiative, the cornerstone of which is Russia’s withdrawal from all of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory it occupies. Yermak also mentioned the upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and thanked China for supporting Ukraine's quest for a just peace. The discussions also covered battlefield updates, the Black Sea grain corridor, prisoner exchanges, civilian rights and the return of deported Ukrainian children.Ukrinform Reuters 

Anti-Kremlin militia says fighting ongoing in 5 Russian settlements. Anti-Kremlin militias, the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian Battalion, said they are engaged in combat against the Russian army in five settlements in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts near Ukraine's border. Launching from Ukraine into Russia, their actions coincide with Russia's March 15-17 presidential elections, aiming to challenge Vladimire Putin's regime and disrupt the electoral process. The Kyiv Independent said it could not verify the claims of Oleksii Baranovskyi, a fighter with the Freedom of Russia Legion. Kyiv Independent 

Another Russian refinery hit by Ukrainian drones, the fourth in 24 hours.  Drones launched by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reportedly struck the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in the southern Rostov region, effectively putting its operations to a halt. The report was confirmed to Ukrinform by a source in Ukraine’s security and defense forces. Overnight Wednesday, Ukrainian drones reportedly hit three oil refineries across Russia – in Ryazan, Kirishi and Norsi. As reported by British intelligence analysts, Russia's oil refining capacity has been temporarily reduced by multiple Ukrainian drone strikes. Bloomberg reported that the three facilities hit by Ukrainian drones in the past two days account for about 12% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Justice minister: Ukraine willing to accept loans if necessary to secure US aid. Ukraine would likely be willing to accept U.S. assistance partially in loans if it were necessary to expedite further funds for Ukraine, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said on March 13, Reuters reported. Kyiv Independent 

Finnish prime minister says Russia is preparing for long war with West. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, speaking in the European Parliament, warned of a potential Russian attack on Europe in the coming years. Russia "is evidently preparing for a long conflict with the West, and represents a permanent and existential military threat to Europe,” Orpo said. He urged European unity in strengthening defense and border security, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness of supporting Ukraine against the alternative of a Russian victory as well as the limits of Russia’s military power. “We can overcome this challenge if we pool our resources together. We have the financial means – now we need to demonstrate our political commitment," Orpo said. Ukrainska Pravda 

Media: EU to propose restrictions on Russian, Belarusian grain imports. The European Commission plans to propose quantitative restrictions on grain imports from Russia and Belarus, responding to protests from European farmers and Ukraine's appeals. Aimed at avoiding a full embargo due to concerns over global price instability and its impact on poorer nations, the proposal will include quotas while still allowing the transit of these countries' agricultural products. This move comes as European Union imports of grain from Russia surged from 970,000 tons in 2022 to over 1.5 million tons in 2023. Latvia and Poland have already taken steps toward limiting imports from Russia and Belarus, aligning with EU sanctions. Ukrainska Pravda Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian hackers disrupt transport services in Russian cities.  The IT Army of Ukraine conducted a cyberattack targeting the Russian government and local systems, resulting in disruptions to the fare payment system in Moscow and Kazan public transport, according to Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry. The attack reportedly targeted the Troika fare payment system used across 38 Russian regions. The IT Army of Ukraine said the attack made Russian commuters unable to pay for tickets, top-up travel cards, or use parking services. The group of volunteer hackers said they prepared the attack for nearly a month.  Kyiv Independent

The Americas

House passes TikTok divestment bill. The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation targeting TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance Ltd., because of national security concerns. The bill, which passed with a vote of 352 to 65, seeks to force the Chinese owner to sell TikTok or face a ban on the popular video-sharing app in the U.S. The bill now moves to the Senate, where its future is uncertain due to mixed support. President Joe Biden expressed readiness to sign the bill into law, despite potential backlash from younger voters and possible legal challenges. The legislation emphasizes bipartisan concern over the influence of Chinese ownership on American data privacy and national security,  amid broader U.S.-China tensions over technology and information control. Bloomberg New York Times Al Jazeera 

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — After TikTok Vote, Will a Ban or Sale Come Next?  Wednesday's House vote on the fate of the social media platform TikTok marked a significant moment in several respects.  It was the first instance of U.S. legislators passing a bill aimed at a Chinese-owned entity, particularly one as globally influential as TikTok.  The bipartisan nature of the vote also underscored its significance.  However, despite this decisive House action, the ultimate outcome regarding TikTok's future remains uncertain.  The bill must navigate through the Senate, and any potential sale would require approval both in China and by the U.S. Congress.  Intense lobbying efforts and legal battles are already underway. While the House vote injects momentum into the longstanding campaign against TikTok's Chinese ownership, what lies ahead remains highly uncertain.  The Cipher Brief

Trump launched CIA covert influence operation against China.  President Donald Trump authorized a clandestine CIA campaign targeting Chinese social media, aiming to sway public opinion against the Chinese government, according to former U.S. officials. Operatives spread negative narratives and leaked disparaging intelligence, aiming to disrupt China's tightly controlled internet and force its leaders to chase false intrusions. The operation, launched in 2019 and not previously reported, reflects heightened U.S.-China tensions and echoes Cold War-era tactics. While the impact remains unclear, the initiative underscores the risk of escalating tensions and the potential for China to exploit such actions to bolster its own narrative of Western interference. The covert messaging strategy carries risks of endangering dissidents and independent journalists and could exacerbate suspicion of Western motives in the developing world according to former CIA analyst Paul Heer.  Reuters

Biden administration considering using Guantanamo Bay to process possible surge of Haitian migrants.  The Biden administration is considering using Guantanamo Bay's migrant center to process migrants in case of a mass exodus from Haiti. This facility, located around 200 miles from Haiti, is distinct from the area holding terror suspects. It has previously been utilized for similar purposes, such as during Haiti's 2010 earthquake. Migrants intercepted at sea could be sent to Guantanamo for processing and potential repatriation. This plan comes as Haiti faces a security breakdown, with gangs controlling significant parts of the capital and mass prison escapes exacerbating the situation.  CNN Politico  

Calm in Haitian capital extends into second day as US, UN withdraw staff. Calm persisted in Port-au-Prince for a second day on Wednesday after Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced his resignation amid escalating gang violence. The U.S. and the United Nations are withdrawing staff, indicating concerns about the peace's longevity. The formation of a transitional council faces opposition from gang leader Jimmy "Barbeque" Cherizier. The U.S. deployed anti-terrorism Marines for embassy security, and non-essential U.N. staff prepared to leave. Florida has strengthened its southern coast security in response, while Haiti's main cargo port remained “not fully operational” after looting. Haiti has long been impoverished and politically volatile, but became increasingly lawless after the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moise. Reuters 

Plan to install new leaders in Haiti appears to crumble after political parties reject it. An internationally backed proposal for new leadership in Haiti, involving a presidential council to manage a transition, is facing opposition from some political parties. Ex-senator Jean Charles Moïse and former rebel leader Guy Philippe rejected the internationally backed council, advocating for their own three-person presidential council instead. The plan aimed to appoint an interim prime minister and council of ministers to navigate the crisis that has paralyzed the nation. High-profile politicians and parties also declined participation. “We are not going to negotiate it,” Moise said at a Wednesday press conference. “Haitians will decide who will govern Haiti,” Philippe said in a video posted Tuesday. William O’Neill, the United Nations’ independent expert on human rights in Haiti, said the political, humanitarian and security situation remains dire. “This is absolutely catastrophic,” O’Neill said. “I describe Port-au-Prince now as an open-air prison. There is no way to get out: land, air or sea. The airport is still not functioning.” Associated Press

US sends Marine crisis-response/anti-terrorism unit to protect embassy in Haiti. The U.S. has deployed a specialized Marine Fleet-Anti-terrorism Security Team (FAST) to secure the U.S. Embassy in Haiti amid gang violence and political instability. This move underscores the deteriorating situation in Haiti, where armed gangs control significant portions of Port-au-Prince. The FAST unit's deployment aims to enhance embassy security and support the current Marine guards. This action coincides with efforts to establish a transitional presidential council in Haiti, following Prime Minister Ariel Henry's resignation, to lead the country to new elections and restore order. The U.S. is also supporting a multinational security mission to Haiti. Defense officials said Tuesday that the U.S. does not plan to deploy troops to Haiti and has no immediate plans to rescue Americans trapped by gang violence in the country, including a former Marine who served in Vietnam. The Hill Washington Post Politico Stars and Stripes

U.S. looks to Australia for more missiles.  Building 215 at an Australian military base near Sydney is set to become the first factory outside the U.S. to produce Lockheed Martin's Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS).  Australia aims to test-fire the first batch of GMLRS made at the factory by the end of next year.  While the missiles will first be made from imported components, Australia plans to eventually produce key components domestically.  Australia seeks to manufacture thousands of missiles annually, which would be part of efforts to bolster production of critical weapons and munitions across allied nations as U.S. supplies are strained by the Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East.  Challenges include supply chain development and workforce training.  Cooperation between Canberra and Lockheed will be critical in overcoming logistical hurdles.  Wall Street Journal 

Pentagon clears F-35 for full-rate production.  The Defense Department announced its decision to proceed with full-rate production on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.  William LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, approved the decision, known as Milestone C, after a meeting of the Defense Acquisition Board.  This milestone was achieved more than four years later than planned due to delays setting up necessary Joint Simulation Environment tests.  Concerns raised by the Pentagon's Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, are being addressed by the program.  Over 990 F-35s have been delivered to various military branches and international customers.  Lockheed Martin is currently producing F-35s at nearly full capacity.  Defense News Stars and Stripes 

U.S. Special Operations conduct major Arctic exercise with allies.  U.S. special forces and allied commandos conducted a groundbreaking Arctic mission, integrating snowmobiles, helicopters, and a fast-attack submarine, officials said this week.  The exercise involved Navy SEALs, Army Green Berets, and troops from NATO countries, training in extreme cold weather conditions during Exercise Arctic Edge 24.  The complex operation included a secure zone setup, an airdrop, and delivery of a "critical package" to a surfaced submarine in the Arctic Circle.  Details of the package and scenario were not disclosed, but the exercise demonstrates the strategic importance of the Arctic amid increasing Russian presence.  Additional Arctic exercises involving thousands of troops from the U.S. and allies are ongoing, aimed at reinforcing readiness to defend the region and deter aggression.  Stars and Stripes 

U.S.-South Korea defense talks on track, official says.  U.S.-South Korean negotiations regarding cost-sharing for American troops stationed in South Korea are progressing ahead of schedule, according to a senior Biden administration official. Envoys were appointed to initiate talks for a deal effective in 2026, aiming to secure an agreement before any potential return of Donald Trump, who previously criticized Seoul for not paying enough.  However, the official said there is no hard November deadline for a new deal.  Previous negotiations saw Seoul agreeing to a 13.9% increase in contributions during Trump's presidency.   Reuters

Navy fires sub commander of USS Ohio.  The commanding officer of the guided-missile submarine USS Ohio's gold crew, Capt. Kurt Balagna, was relieved of duty due to "a loss of confidence."  The Ohio-class submarine follows a blue-gold crew model, where two crews alternate patrols.  No specific reasons were provided for Balagna's removal, as is customary under federal privacy law.  This marks at least the third Navy commanding officer relieved of duty this year.  Stars and Stripes

Asia and Oceania

Chinese foreign minister to visit Australia. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to travel to Australia and New Zealand next week. It is the highest level visit from China to Australia in almost seven years. according to Bloomberg, and the latest sign of warming ties. Canberra and Beijing have been at odds over several issues, including Australia’s demands for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19 and its ban of Chinese technology giant Huawei from its 5G network. China responded with trade tariffs that it has been gradually lifting since Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese came to power in 2022.  Bloomberg Reuters 

Vietnam arms imports drop to a trickle despite regional tensions. Vietnam's efforts to diversify its arms imports away from Russia have stalled, with a significant decrease in weapon imports since 2014 and no major new orders placed last year, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Despite a defense budget exceeding $1 billion annually, 2023 saw Vietnam's lowest arms import volume since 2007. The country of nearly 100 million people relies on outdated military equipment and faces regional tensions, especially with China. The status quo leaves Vietnam vulnerable in a regional conflict. "The disparity in conventional military power will increase in China's favor if Vietnam continues to mark time," said Carl Thayer, a senior expert in Vietnam security at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra. The country is trying to improve its own military industry but cannot yet produce large weapons, such as aircraft or ships, Reuters reported. Reuters 

Taiwan and China launch rescue bid after fishing boat capsizes.  Taiwan dispatched coast guard boats to aid in a rescue mission requested by China after a fishing vessel capsized near the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen islands. Two individuals were missing, two were rescued and two bodies were retrieved.  The boat capsized about 1.07 nautical miles west of Taiwan's Dongding island, with armed forces stationed there also participating in the rescue.  Taiwan's Kinmen defense command stated they hadn't received a request from China to search the island but affirmed any survivors found would be handed over to the coast guard.  Taiwanese Coast guard chief Chou Mei-wu said that such requests for assistance were common, with nearly 120 people rescued in such efforts in recent years.  Taiwan sent four vessels while China sent six for the rescue effort. Last month, China initiated regular patrols around Kinmen islands following an incident where two Chinese nationals died while attempting to flee Taiwan's coast guard.  Reuters

Sanctioned Russian cargo plane in Pyongyang.  A Russian Ilyushin 76TD cargo plane under U.S. sanctions arrived in Pyongyang this week for an unannounced trip, according to local news sources citing data from commercial tracking service FlightRadar24.  The plane left Shanghai on Monday and made a sharp turn towards North Korea.  It then left for Tianjin and flew on to Moscow on Tuesday, according to the data.  NK News said there was no commercial satellite imagery of the plane in North Korea, but South Korean newspaper DongA Ilbo said it was there for several hours.  NK News added that the plane was sanctioned by the U.S. in January 2023 as part of measures against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.  South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense did not comment on the flight, saying only that Seoul and Washington are “tracking and monitoring related signs.”  North Korean state media did not mention the flight either.  Bloomberg

North Korea's Kim test drives new tank during mock battle.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a mock battle featuring a new battle tank on Wednesday, according to state media KCNA. Kim expressed “great satisfaction” with the tank's striking power during its first performance display in the military demonstration. The demonstration coincided with the conclusion of joint drills between South Korea and the U.S., known as the Freedom Shield exercises. These were the first drills since North Korea terminated a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement aimed at reducing tensions.  Reuters Associated Press France 24

India's defense ministry signs deals worth $975 million for domestic helicopters.  India’s defense ministry signed contracts worth 80.73 billion rupees ($975.06 million) with state-run Hindustan Aeronautics to buy 34 domestically produced advanced light helicopters for the Indian army and coast guard on Wednesday.  Reuters 

Europe

European missile maker’s chief urges UK to play role in EU defense strategy.  MBDA CEO Eric Beranger emphasized the importance of including the United Kingdom in the European Union’s new defense industrial strategy. Despite Brexit, Beranger told the Financial Times that “when we talk defense, geography matters.” As Europe's largest missile maker, MBDA underscored the success of cross-border defense collaborations. The European Commission's strategy aims for EU defense procurement to prioritize EU-based suppliers, with a target of sourcing at least 50% from within Europe by 2030. Amidst increased orders since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, MBDA is ramping up production. MBDA reported a record order intake in 2023 of €9.9 billion, a 10% increase, pushing its order book to €28 billion due to rising demand for air defenses. The company is accelerating production, including tripling production rate of the CAMM family of missiles by 2026 and boosting Aster missile production by 50%. It produces long-range cruise missiles such as the Franco-British Scalp/Storm Shadow as well as Meteor. Its German arm, together with Sweden’s Saab, makes the Taurus missile for Germany, Spain and South Korea. With investments over €2.4 billion planned for production expansion, MBDA aims to hire over 2,500 people this year. It currently has 15,000 employees. Russia has launched nearly 7,400 missiles and 3,700 Shahed drones against targets in Ukraine as of December, according to news reports citing Ukraine’s air force. Financial Times Defense News 

U.K. considers restrictions on Chinese official visas over spy risk.  The U.K. government is considering tightening regulations on Chinese nationals entering the U.K. for official purposes over espionage concerns. Discussions are ongoing on revising border rules to require more information and stricter checks on diplomats and others on official business. Measures may include limiting arrivals under diplomatic rules and increased scrutiny of official activities. This potential action follows worries about China's increasing influence in the U.K. and reports of Chinese espionage targeting British citizens. However, some officials fear a potential crackdown will escalate diplomatic tensions with Beijing. The UK's Home Office and Foreign Office and China declined to comment.  Bloomberg 

How many nuclear weapons does Russia have and who controls them? Russia possesses the largest nuclear stockpile globally. President Vladimir Putin controls approximately 5,580 warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. This includes around 4,380 stockpiled for strategic and tactical use, with 1,710 of those deployed across various platforms. Russia's nuclear doctrine, updated in 2020, outlines usage scenarios in response to existential threats or significant conventional attacks. Post-Soviet Russia hasn't conducted nuclear tests, but Putin indicated readiness to test if the U.S. does. The Russian president, via a specialized briefcase system, holds ultimate authority over nuclear launch decisions, with systems in place for rapid order transmission to missile forces.  Reuters 

Moldova says Russia illegally printed ballots for election in separatist region.  Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian said Wednesday that Russia has broken laws by printing ballots in the separatist region of Transdniestria for this week’s Russian presidential election. Moldavan authorities summoned Russian Ambassador Oleg Vasnetsov to complain about Moscow’s decision to open six polling stations in the pro-Russian region, which Moldova contends broke an agreement to allow voting only at a single station at the Russian embassy in Chisinau. Vasnetsov rejected the complaint, saying Russia is simply enabling approximately 250,000 Russian nationals in Moldova, many of them living in Transdniestria, to vote.  Reuters

UK unveils new extremism definition amid rise in hate crimes against Jews, Muslims.  Britain has a new extremism definition, aiming to address an explosion of hate crimes against Jews and Muslims following the Hamas attacks on Israel.  Extremism is now defined as promoting an ideology based on violence, hatred, or intolerance to undermine U.K. democracy or fundamental rights.  Identified extremist groups won't face criminal action but will be denied government funding and engagement opportunities.  Notably, no groups have been officially labeled extremist under the previous definition in place since 2011.  Britain bans groups deemed to be involved in terrorism, and supporting or being a member of these organizations is a criminal offense.  Reuters

Middle East

Lebanese, French officials float a plan to rebuild Beirut port nearly 4 years after huge explosion. Lebanese and French officials announced plans to rebuild the Beirut port, nearly four years after the devastating explosion caused by improperly stored ammonium nitrate. The 2020 blast resulted in over 200 deaths, thousands injured and extensive city damage. Efforts to probe the explosion have stalled. Reconstruction has been fragmented. The French government-backed plan aims to repair quays, reorganize the port’s layout and a transition to solar power. An estimated $60-$80 million needed to complete the project can come from port revenues, which reached $150 million in 2023. Associated Press  

Africa

Sudan's army chief vows to push on after advance in embattled capital. The Sudanese army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has vowed to press its offensive after capturing strategic positions in Omdurman, near the capital of Khartoum, from the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The development marks a significant advance in the 11-month civil war. The army dismissed international calls for a Ramadan ceasefire, conditioning it on RSF's withdrawal from civilian areas. The war has displaced over 8 million people in the north African nation of 46 million people. Save the Children warns of potential deaths from malnutrition among children and new mothers without increased aid. Reuters 

Nigerian kidnappers demand $620,000 for release of school hostages.  Gunmen who kidnapped 286 students and staff from a school in the northern Nigerian town of Kuriga last week have demanded a 1 billion anira ($620,432) for their release, according to a spokesman for families of the hostages.  The kidnappers said that if the ransom is not paid within 20 days of the kidnapping, they will kill all those taken hostage.  Authorities say they are taking measures to secure the release of the hostages, which the government has said it is seeking to achieve without paying any ransom.  Reuters CNN

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

China leads U.S., Russia in development of operational hypersonic weapons. A senior intelligence analyst told a House hearing on Tuesday that China has achieved the world’s “leading hypersonic arsenal” through a sustained program of developing, testing, and deploying prototypes and systems.  Jeffery McCormick, senior intelligence analyst for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, said U.S. rivals in hypersonic technology have developed multiple types of hypersonic missiles that can be deployed from air, ground, and naval launchers.  McCormick noted that both China and Russia have made operational use of hypersonic systems, including Russian hypersonic weapons attacks against Ukraine, while the U.S. has reportedly failed to produce a ‘single’ operational hypersonic missile despite $12 billion in R&D since 2018.  McCormick added that “China is ahead of Russia in support infrastructure and total inventory of systems.”  Also speaking at the House Armed Services subcommittee meeting, Dr. James Weber, the Pentagon’s principal director for hypersonics, said among the DoD’s key goals are to collect higher quality data from ground and flight tests while accelerating the “development of the lethality and survivability test infrastructure.”   Bloomberg House Armed Services

Russian officials claim ‘Western’ cyberattacks target weekend election voting. On the eve of Russia’s presidential election, which take place March 15-17, the Russian foreign affairs ministry claims that “Western” hackers are planning and executing cyberattacks against the country’s election infrastructure.  For the first time, residents of certain regions, including Moscow, will be able to vote online.  A foreign ministry official commenting on the alleged cyberattacks said “it’s good that our electoral system turned out to be resistant to external cyber influence, but this is also an indicator of how great the pressure of enemies is on the Russian state.”  Russia’s election commission chairperson, Ella Pamfilova, described the hacking activity as “unprecedented attempts at interference; the hacker attacks are ongoing; the purpose of all this is to disrupt the presidential election.”  Russian officials have not provided evidence of election-related cyberattacks.  Russia’s National Computer Incident Coordination Center (CERT) has warned online voters about “escalating cyber threats,” noting that they could originate from Ukraine and its allies.  The Record 

Independent Russian media outlet faces ‘unprecedented’ cyberattacks. An independent Russian media outlet, Meduza, on Monday reported that “Russian authorities” have launched a series of intense cyberattacks against the platform.  Meduza said the “unprecedented” attacks began as Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was reported to have died in prison.  The company, which moved its headquarters to Latvia in 2014, said Moscow’s goal is to undercut Meduza’s presence on the Internet by disrupting servers or swamping its site with web traffic.  Users in Russia can only access the website through a virtual private network.  Russian authorities designated Meduza as an “undesirable organization” in 2023, opening the organization to fines and prison sentences for staff members.  A statement from Meduza said “Russian authorities, along with Kremlin-affiliated organizations and hackers, are willing to spend an enormous amount of resources to destroy our infrastructure.”  The Record

Tor Project introduces new web tool to circumvent censorship systems. The Tor Project, a nonprofit organization developing anonymity software, has announced the release of WebTunnel, a bridge application allowing connections to the Tor network in heavily censored areas.  A Tor blog post said WebTunnel is part of the group’s continuing effort to “stay ahead of adversaries in the highly dynamic and ever-changing censorship landscape.”  Tor sources describe the new product as a “censorship-resistant” pluggable that appears as an ordinary HTTPS connection.  Unwitting observers, according to Tor, “will simply perceive the content of that website address and won't notice the existence of a secret bridge” created by WebTunnel.  Tor reported that currently 60 WebTunnel bridges are being hosted around the world, with more than 700 daily active users on different platforms.  Tor noted that  "while WebTunnel works in regions like China and Russia, it does not currently work in some regions in Iran.”  Cybernews  BleepingComputer

DoD’s ‘flat’ 2025 budget request for AI-related projects not tied to change in priorities.  The Pentagon’s 2025 budget request for AI investments is the same as 2024, but that does not reflect any change in the high priority the DoD attaches to the technology.  A Pentagon spokesperson said that congressional and White House spending caps required “targeted reductions” in certain areas.  Also this week, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters that “because of these statutory caps…we made smart, responsible choices to work within those limits. The result is a strong focus on executability, a necessary emphasis on near-term readiness and people investments.”  Hicks added that future defense budgets must grow in order “to achieve the goals of the National Defense Strategy, and especially in the face of rapid modernization by the People’s Republic of China.”  The Pentagon’s 2025 request for $1.8 billion in AI-related spending will be focused on “responsible Al/ML-enabled capabilities on secure and reliable platforms, workforce development, and DOD-wide data management and modernization efforts.”  DefenseScoop   C4ISRNet

New study recommends strict limits on AI model development, exports.  A private study commissioned by the State Department recommends that the U.S. take steps “quickly and decisively” to prevent severe national security risks arising from the development of artificial intelligence.  The report from Gladstone AI researchers says AI and next generation artificial general intelligence (AGI) have global destabilizing potential akin to the introduction of nuclear weapons.  The report makes several recommendations, including congressional legislation that would outlaw AI models that use above a set threshold of computing power.  The government should continue to tighten controls on AI chip manufacture and exports and should allocate Federal funds for “alignment” research aiming at AI safety.  In addition, the report advocates the creation of a Federal AI agency to oversee AI development and administer standards and norms, especially the compute power thresholds for AI models, which could be raised or lowered as needed.  Time Gladstone AI

UK joins EU R&D effort to reduce dependence on semiconductor imports.  The U.K. on Wednesday announced it will join the EU’s Chips Joint Undertaking with a pledge of $45 million for the program’s $1.4 billion research fund.  The total budget for the EU “Joint Undertaking” is about $12 billion and comes from public and private contributions.  It is a spinoff of the 2023 European Chips Act aimed at reducing Europe’s reliance on semiconductor imports.  British Technology Minister Saqib Bhatti told TechCrunch that while British firms will benefit from access to EU funding, the UK contribution will be measured in the expertise it brings to the program.  Bhatti said, “I’m meeting businesses at the moment in the semiconductor industry and the conversation is very much around investing in the U.K. and taking advantage of our ecosystems, getting involved in the R&D sector.”   Regarding British semiconductor sector contributions, Bhatti added, “we really can’t understate the strength of the R&D aspect of it. We very much come to the table as an equal partner.”  TechCrunch Reuters

Nvidia, Google, Microsoft invest billions in AI-powered biotech research.  Leading AI-powered tech firms like Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft are investing billions in the often overlooked biotech sector.  Nvidia, for example, through its Nventures VC division, has committed heavily to drug discovery with seven of the unit’s 19 overall deals involving AI drug research startups.  Google AI Lab’s AlphaFold model, a tool to predict protein structures, has helped researchers develop a “molecular” syringe that injects drugs directly into cells.  Microsoft and Amazon also have begun protein design projects.  Google DeepMind and Nvidia executives told Forbes that the convergence of several factors, including massive training data, growth in computing resources, and development of AI algorithms, has made breakthroughs in the sector possible.  Kimberly Powell, vice president of Nvidia healthcare, said those three elements “are here for the very first time.  This was not possible five years ago.”  As promising as AI’s role in the sector is, there are obstacles.  As Forbes notes, it still takes years to get drugs through clinical trials.  Even with FDA approval of more than 100 drug candidates developed with AI, years will probably pass before any enter the market.  Forbes

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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