[rebelmouse-image 60323886 expand=1 dam=1 alt="OSR banner" site_id=26883708 is_animated_gif="false" original_size="1000x220" crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323886/origin.png%22%2C%20%22thumbnails%22%3A%20%7B%22origin%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323886/origin.png%22%2C%20%22700x1245%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D700%26height%3D1245%26coordinates%3D438%252C0%252C438%252C0%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1000%26height%3D750%26coordinates%3D353%252C0%252C353%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D170%252C0%252C170%252C0%22%2C%20%22210x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D210%22%2C%20%221200x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D280%252C0%252C280%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x800%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D800%26coordinates%3D335%252C0%252C335%252C0%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D390%252C0%252C390%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D280%252C0%252C280%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D335%252C0%252C335%252C0%22%2C%20%2235x35%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D35%26height%3D35%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D750%26height%3D1000%26coordinates%3D417%252C0%252C418%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D390%252C0%252C390%252C0%22%2C%20%22980x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D980%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D200%26coordinates%3D170%252C0%252C170%252C0%22%2C%20%221245x700%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1245%26height%3D700%26coordinates%3D304%252C0%252C304%252C0%22%2C%20%221500x2000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1500%26height%3D2000%26coordinates%3D417%252C0%252C418%252C0%22%2C%20%22300x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%22%2C%20%222000x1500%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTgwNzYxNDQ4OX0.1gEV77I0VNIGhfMuzIWULyPcbwHRsD2wYLxm6pOF4pA/image.png%3Fwidth%3D2000%26height%3D1500%26coordinates%3D353%252C0%252C353%252C0%22%7D%2C%20%22manual_image_crops%22%3A%20%7B%229x16%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22700x1245%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20124%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20438%7D%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20440%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20280%7D%2C%20%223x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x400%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20660%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20170%7D%2C%20%223x2%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x800%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20330%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20335%7D%2C%20%221x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x600%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20390%7D%2C%20%223x4%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221500x2000%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20165%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20417%7D%2C%20%2216x9%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221245x700%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20392%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20304%7D%2C%20%224x3%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%222000x1500%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20294%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20353%7D%2C%20%222x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x600%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20220%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20440%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20280%7D%7D%7D" caption="" photo_credit="" title=""]

Thursday, June 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Cuba-China Reach Secret Deal For Island Spy Base, U.S. Officials Say.  Havana and Beijing have secretly worked out a deal for an eavesdropping facility on Cuba, which could improve Chinese surveillance efforts of shipping routes and the southeastern U.S., where several American military bases are located. The base would sit approximately 100 miles from Florida, and would offer the cash-strapped island several billion dollars as compensation, the officials said. China’s relationship to Cuba has been growing in recent years, with several Chinese telecommunications companies involved in infrastructure building, and Beijing playing key roles in Cuban debt restructuring. The move also reminds of the Soviet Union’s largest foreign intelligence base in the Cuban village of Lourdes, near Havana, which began operations in 1967, and offered a similar intelligence perch, while also serving as a coordination hub for Soviet naval maneuvers in the Caribbean. That base closed in 2001, after paying Cuba $200 million annually in rent. In 2014, President Vladimir Putin discussed potentially reopening the facility.  Wall Street JournalBiden Administration Faces Increased Pressure to Deliver Long-Range Weapons to Ukraine.  In a Thursday letter to President Joe Biden, 10 Republican and Democratic lawmakers pressed the president to send the Army Tactical Missile System to Ukraine, as well as U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and an added Patriot missile defense system. It also pressed his administration to speed up the transfer of U.S. M1 Abrams tanks. The ATACMS, which would quadruple the range of Ukraine’s current rockets, have been the source of intense debate, after national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the weapon could greatly expand the nature of the conflict.  Politico

British PM Sunak Meeting Biden.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington on Thursday.  Officials said the two will focus on bolstering economic ties between the U.S. and Britain and discuss other issues like the Ukraine war, China, clean energy, and advancements in artificial intelligence. (Editor’s note: Check out the Cyber and Tech section below for more on the AI summit Britain will be hosting.) Sources say Sunak is also expected to try and get Biden’s support to back British defense minister Ben Wallace’s bid to become the next secretary-general of NATO.  Sunak’s trip to the U.S. aims to strengthen relations with Washington, especially on trade issues post-Brexit.  Observers say Sunak will likely focus on trade deals in individual sectors and with individual states rather than revive negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement.  Sunak previously met with congressional leaders on Wednesday to discuss issues ranging from supply chains to Hong Kong.  New York Times Reuters Washington Post

Blinken Potentially Visiting Beijing in Coming Weeks.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken may be traveling to Beijing later this month, according to sources familiar with the matter.  Blinken was originally supposed to visit the Chinese capital in February but postponed his trip over the Chinese spy balloon incident.  One source said that if Blinken does visit Beijing, he will likely meet China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, though it is unclear if he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Sources also said the timing of the rescheduled trip is still fluid.  Neither the U.S. State Department or Chinese foreign ministry have given any details on a potential Blinken trip, which would come amid U.S. efforts to improve senior-level engagement with China.  Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Chinese Actions Against U.S. Firms Politically Motivated, U.S. Envoy Says.  U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said Wednesday that Washington will counter China’s targeting of American companies, which he said the U.S. views as “political in nature.”  His comments come in response to China’s cyberspace regulator's recent decision to bar U.S. memory chipmaker Micron Technology from doing business with key Chinese infrastructure operators, as well as a recent crackdown by Chinese authorities on U.S. consultancy and due diligence firms.  Burns said China views these actions as “payback” against the U.S. sanctioning Chinese companies or putting them on export ban lists.  Burns said such restrictions aim to keep the Chinese military from getting a “leg up” by accessing advanced American technology.  Burns did not detail how the U.S. would respond to China’s most recent actions against U.S. firms.  He also said that despite tensions, the U.S. and China should work to manage competition to ensure it is always “peaceful.”  Reuters

Western Europe

NATO to Hold Largest Air Exercise Over Europe in Germany.  Germany is hosting the largest NATO air drills over Europe in the alliance’s history starting on Monday.  The Air Defender 23 exercise will involve 250 aircraft and 10,000 troops from 25 countries, including aspiring NATO member Sweden and partner Japan.  The U.S. will deploy 100 aircraft and 2,000 U.S. Air National Guard personnel to participate in the wargames.  The drills are designed to simulate response by allied air forces to an attack on a NATO member.  German Air Force Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz said the exercise aims to show a “defensive” posture and demonstrate that “NATO territory is our red line.”  Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, director of the Air National Guard, added that the lessons from the wargames will be applied to deterrence efforts in places beyond Europe, including in the Indo-Pacific.  Deutsche Welle Euronews Wall Street Journal

Most Europeans Prefer Neutrality in Taiwan War, Study Shows.  A new study from the European Council on Foreign relations shows that a majority of Europeans would prefer their countries to remain neutral in a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan.  A poll in the study showed that only 23 percent of people across 11 European countries would want to support the U.S., with 62 percent preferring neutrality.  The study also showed that 43 percent of Europeans continue to see China as a necessary partner that Europe should continue to cooperate with.  The study comes amid debate over how the E.U should approach China, especially amid heightened U.S.-China tensions.  The findings suggest that more Europeans support engagement with Beijing, which French President Emmanuel Macron has advocated for, over the need to “de-risk” away from China, which some EU leadership and the Biden administration have called for.  However, the study did find limits to this position: the poll showed that 41 percent of Europeans would back sanctions against China if it supplies arms to Europe amid the Ukraine war, while 33 percent would oppose this response.  Euronews New York Times South China Morning Post

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelensky Visits Flood-Hit Kherson, Calls for International Help in Russian-Occupied Areas.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited areas in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region impacted by flooding from the destruction of the Kakovkha Dam.  Zelensky said he is in the area to discuss evacuations from flood zones and aid efforts for those affected.  In an interview with German newspaper Bild, he accused Russian forces of complicating flood response efforts by shooting at Ukrainian rescuers.  Kherson region officials added that Russian shelling has killed people in the regional center of Kherson city.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made similar claims that rescuers in Russia-occupied areas are coming under Ukrainian fire.  In contrast, Ukraine says Russia is offering “no help” to civilians in flooded areas; the Ukrainian military and witnesses say that Russian forces have been slow and at times prevented civilian evacuations from flood zones, suggesting they were unprepared to deal with the impact of flooding on Russian-occupied areas.  Zelensky said the situation in Russian-occupied flood-hit areas is “absolutely catastrophic,” saying people there have been “abandoned.”  Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials are calling for the UN and international humanitarian organizations to take the lead on evacuating and supporting civilians in flood zones within Russian-occupied territory.  Institute for the Study of War CNN France 24 Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Russia-Backed Official Suggests Russian Forces to Benefit from Kakhovka Dam Flooding, Analysts Disagree.  Ukraine continues to accuse Russia of destroying the dam out of concerns that Ukrainian forces would cross the Dnipro river into Russian-occupied territory.  Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of occupied areas in Ukraine’s Kherson region, appeared to lend credence to this argument, saying that the collapse of the dam has given a tactical advantage to Russian forces.  While he accused Ukraine of destroying the dam, in line with Moscow’s position on the matter, he said flooding from the breach has made any Ukrainian force attempting to cross impacted areas on the Dnipro river more vulnerable.  However, some military experts are skeptical of this opinion, saying that a river crossing in the region by Ukrainian troops is unlikely and that most fighting in Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive will take place far from the dam.  Analysts also say flooding from the dam breach has likely destroyed the first line of Russian defenses along the Dnipro river.  Institute for the Study of War Reuters

Germany Accuses Russia of ‘War Crime’ of Destroying Khakovka Dam.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Wednesday accused Russia of destroying the Khakovka Dam in southern Ukraine, calling it a “crystal clear war crime.”  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also directly accused Russia for the dam’s destruction, saying that Russia is using the resulting flooding in an effort to complicate Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive in the region and calling it the latest of “many, many crimes” committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.  The rhetoric out of Berlin marks the most direct accusation that Russia was behind the dam breach, which Moscow denies.  The U.S. and other NATO countries say that while they suspect Russia is to blame, they are still investigating the incident.  Bloomberg

Thousands of Russians Flee to Belgorod City Amid Border Fighting.  Thousands of Russians have abandoned their homes in Russia’s western border regions, with most taking shelter in Belgorod, the largest city near the Ukraine border.  Cross-border shelling and incursions, mainly targeting the Belgorod region, forced the displacement of Russians in the area.  While regional officials have attempted to reassure citizens that the situation is under control, they have also reported daily attacks on border villages over the past week.  Violence in the region prompted Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, to suggest that his mercenaries may come to Belgorod to drive out attacking forces.  Ukraine maintains it is not behind attacks in the region.  Two Russian militia groups who crossed over from Ukraine have claimed responsibility for the biggest incursions in the region.  Reuters

U.S. Envoy Urges Greater Autonomy for Kosovo Serbs.  The U.S. envoy to the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, said Wednesday that Kosovo must grant Serb-majority municipalities greater autonomy.  He specifically called for Kosovo to withdraw police from Serb-majority areas and hold fresh municipal elections in the region.  Escobar added that if Kosovo does not take such actions, it will be “turning its back on Europe” and will be jeopardizing its aspirations to join the EU and NATO.  His comments come after unrest in northern Kosovo, where Serbs, who make the region’s majority, have been resisting the installation of ethnic Albanian mayors who won municipal elections that the Serbs boycotted.  The Kosovo government has said it is open to holding new municipal elections, which the Serbian government has said it would encourage Kosovo Serbs to participate in.  Deutsche Welle

Asia and Oceania

Russia, China Conduct Further Joint Air Patrols.  Russian and Chinese strategic bombers and fighter jets carried out joint patrols over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and western parts of the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday.  Russia’s defense ministry said that at times, the patrols were “accompanied by fighters of foreign states,” though the ministry did not specify who the fighters belonged to.  The patrols came a day after earlier joint patrols between Russian and Chinese warplanes in the region, which caused South Korea to scramble fighter jets.  The patrols all come amid a wave of close encounters between U.S. and Chinese forces in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, which the White House has warned could result in accidents.  Reuters

Chinese Military Aircraft Incur Into Taiwan Air Defense Zone.  Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported Wednesday that 37 Chinese military aircraft flew into the island’s air defense zone.  The ministry said the Chinese warplanes included nuclear-capable H-6 bombers and J-11 and J-16 fighter jets, adding that some flew to Taiwan’s southeast and over the western Pacific to perform "air surveillance and long distance navigation training.”  Taiwan’s military scrambled jets, deployed ships and activated missile and defense systems in response.  Reuters 

Drone Fleets from US, Taiwan, Japan to Begin Sharing Data.  The U.S., Taiwan, and Japan will begin sharing real-time information from naval reconnaissance drone missions to bolster maritime coordination in preparation for a potential Chinese attack against Taiwan.  As part of this effort, U.S. defense contractor General Atomics will transfer four MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones to Taiwan in 2025.  The U.S. will train Taiwanese forces to operate the drones, which will be integrated into the same network used by US and Japanese forces in the region.  This integration will help the US and its regional allies to form a common operational picture, in which they all have access to data gathered by their unmanned aerial vehicles.  Including Taiwan in this interoperability structure will boost surveillance of the Chinese military’s movements in the region, namely around Taiwan and in the first island chain.  The Pentagon, Taiwan’s presidential office and Japan’s defense ministry did not comment on the matter, though China’s foreign ministry on Thursday called on the U.S. and Japan to “stop creating military tensions” and destabilizing the Taiwan Strait.  Financial Times Reuters 

Japan Approves New Defense Subsidies.  Japan’s government approved expansive subsidies for its defense contractors on Wednesday. The subsidies will go towards expanding production, improving efficiency, bolstering cybersecurity, and providing for business succession expenses in Japan’s defense industry.  The move aims to promote the export and production of Japanese-made defense equipment to bolster Japanese defense firms’ competitiveness with Western arms makers. For context, approximately 100 companies have left Japan’s shrinking defense industry over the last two decades.  Itsunori Onodera, a former defense minister and proponent of the legislation said that supporting Japan’s domestic defense industry “is defense in and of itself” and that “the new law is a step in that direction.”  Nikkei Asia

China Praises ICAO Exclusion of Taiwan.  China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently told the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Juan Carlos Salazar, that Beijing appreciates the body’s “correct position” on Taiwan, which is currently excluded from the ICAO.  During a meeting with the Salazar on Tuesday, Qin stressed that the issue of Taiwan participating within the ICAO “must be handled in accordance with the one-China principle.”  In the meeting, Salazar reportedly praised China’s strong support for ICAO and said that he plans to “continue to handle the Taiwan question properly and in accordance with the relevant resolutions of the UN General Assembly and the ICAO.”  The meeting came months after the U.S. passed a bill promising to support Taiwan’s participation in the ICAO assembly and its events.  The ICAO is one of many international organizations that have not granted Taiwan full participation due to pushback from China.  South China Morning Post

Quad Not Living Up to Potential, Think Tank Says.  A new report from the U.S. Studies Center at the University of Sydney is offering suggestions for the Quad — which includes the U.S., Japan, Australia and India — to increase its security impact in the Indo-Pacific.  The report calls for the Quad to enact a collective security agenda.  This would chiefly be seen in strengthening integrated maritime logistics, which would open ports and shipyards so Quad members can rely on each other for refueling, rearming, resupplying and repairing their naval forces. The report also urges joint anti-submarine warfare operations and joint monitoring of Chinese submarines.  It also calls for the bolstering of Quad defense supply chains, which can be modeled after the grouping’s success in vaccine distribution.  The Quad has not engaged in deepened security cooperation since India is not part of the U.S. alliance network and because of concerns that Southeast Asia may view the grouping as an anti-China coalition and withhold support.  Now, the report says that China’s military assertiveness in the region provides the opportunity for the Quad to bolster defense collaboration to deter Beijing.  The report also says the Quad should strengthen security ties to support the U.S. Navy as it has recently been suffering shortfalls in its size and ability to maintain readiness.  Nikkei Asia

Pakistan’s Khan Formally Named in Connection to Murder of Lawyer.  Pakistani police publicly named former Prime Minister Imran Khan in connection to a drive-by murder of a lawyer seeking sedition proceedings against him. Police filed an “abetment to murder” case against Khan, though they did not formally charge him with the lawyer’s murder.  Khan faces a host of charges and continues to deny allegations of wrongdoing as fabricated by his opponents.  Khan has said he will appear in court on Thursday to seek bail for 16 cases against him.  Khan was released last week on bail on terrorism charges linked to clashes between his supporters and police after his arrest in early May on corruption charges. Throughout his legal troubles, Khan has accused the military and its intelligence agency of trying to destroy his party and said that he has “no doubt” that he will be tried in a military court and thrown in prison.  Reuters 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Forces Raid Ramallah, Dozens Injured.  The Israeli army staged a raid into Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on Thursday.  The Israeli military said it carried out the operation to demolish the house of Islam Faroukh, who was arrested last year for his suspected involvement in a bombing in Jerusalem.  Palestinian officials said hundreds of Palestinians gathered to protest the demolition, and Israeli troops fired live bullets, stun grenades and tear gas in response.  The Palestinian health ministry said at least 35 people were wounded, including at least 20 by live bullets.  A Palestinian photojournalist is reportedly being treated for a head wound.  Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told Palestinian news that the raid was a “heinous crime.”  Such demolition operations are relatively rare in Ramallah, while they are more frequent in cities like Nablus and Jenin.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Israel Considering Recognizing Morocco’s Rule Over Western Sahara.  The national security advisor of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu visited Rabat, Morocco on Wednesday amid speculation that Israel is considering recognizing Morocco’s rule over the disputed Western Sahara.  Morocco considers Western Sahara as its own, but the Algeria-backed Polisario front in the area is demanding it become an independent state.  Sources say if Israel recognizes Morocco’s sovereignty over the region, it could result in a full upgrade of bilateral ties between the two countries, following a 2020 decision by then-President Donald Trump to recognize Morocco’s rule over the territory for a partial upgrade in Israel-Morocco relations.  Israel’s Foreign Ministry has not commented on the matter, but a source says the Israeli National Security Council has discussed the issue. Reuters

Blinken Meets Saudi Crown Prince.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Wednesday.  Officials say the two had an “open, candid” conversation on a variety of topics.  Top of mind was the prospect of the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which sources say Riyadh would be open to if the U.S. supports the development of the kingdom’s civilian nuclear program.  Blinken also reportedly raised the Yemen war and human rights issues in Saudi Arabia, as well as praised Saudi support for the evacuation of U.S. citizens from Sudan.  Blinken’s visit comes amid tensions in the U.S.-Saudi relationship over issues ranging from Iran policy to oil prices and as China bolsters its ties with Saudi Arabia.  CNN Reuters

Iranian President to Visit Latin America.  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is planning to visit Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela next week.  Iranian state media said Raisi was invited by the presidents of each of the Latin American countries to visit.  State media added that Raisi will sign bilateral cooperation agreements between Iran and the three nations during the tour, though it provided no further details on the details of the deals.  Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Rwanda President Sacks Military Commanders, Names New Top Defense Officials.  Rwanda’s President Paul Kagme dismissed two senior military commanders and 14 officers on Wednesday, a day after announcing a new defense minister and army chief.  Kagame additionally “authorized the dismissal of 116 other ranks and approved the rescission of 112 other ranks,” according to the Rwanda Defense Force. The dismissals came a day after Kagame named a new defense minister, army chief and director general of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), who is in charge of internal security.  The military shakeup comes amid tensions with Democratic Republic of Congo, which has accused Rwanda of supporting armed groups in eastern Congo.  Al Jazeera

Massive Fire in Khartoum Amid Continued Fighting.  A massive fire broke out in Sudan’s capital Khartoum on Wednesday amid continued fighting between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  Witnesses say the fire broke out at a fuel-storage site near an army arms depot and factory, which the RSF reportedly attacked on Tuesday.  The army reportedly used air strikes to counter the attack, which activists say may have caused the fire at the fuel depot.  It is feared that the fire will spread or cause a large explosion that will destroy surrounding residential areas.  The Sudan conflict has devastated Khartoum and other cities and triggered a mass humanitarian crisis.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Cyber and Tech

UK To Host Global AI Safety Summit.  The UK announced on Thursday that it will host a global summit on artificial intelligence (AI) safety and regulations at an unspecified date later this year.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will discuss the subject with President Joe Biden at their meeting on Thursday in Washington. The summit will focus on AI risks, including in frontier systems, and how to mitigate such issues through globally organized measures.  The summit is the latest effort by various countries on passing regulations governing rapidly progressing AI technology.  Separately, the British government said that U.S. tech company Palantir Technologies will announce plans to make the UK its European headquarters for the progression and development of AI.  Reuters  

Cyberspace Commission Issues Harsh Review of Current Infrastructure Protections.  The successor organization to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, CSC 2.0, has raised an alarm that the presidential directive on critical infrastructure protections is “outdated and incapable of meeting today’s demands.” Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21), issued by the Obama administration, assigned responsibilities to Federal agencies — sector risk management agencies (SRMA’s) — for protection of 16 critical infrastructure sectors.  The CSC 2.0 report released Wednesday says the Biden administration’s “incremental approach” to updating PPD-21, which includes the creation of the National Cyber Director office, is not meeting the rising physical and cyber threat to infrastructure sectors.  Instead, according to report co-author Mary Brooks, the administration needs to look beyond the threats and defenses of today in order to implement fixes for “the next 10 years and beyond.”  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) came in for special attention in the CSC 2.0 report, which noted the agency is not positioned within the Federal government to respond quickly and effectively to sensitive system cyberattacks. CISA, the report states, “does not receive the inter-agency support necessary to act effectively as the national risk manager.”  Elsewhere, the CSC 2.0 report notes that the SRMA framework’s information and guidance is difficult to access and causes confusion, especially in crisis situations. Mark Montgomery, the CSC 2.0 executive director and co-author of the report, told reporters “we are massively inconsistent across federal agencies in our performance as sector risk-management agencies, and across the sectors in their willingness to cooperate and participate.”  The Record CyberScoop Wall Street Journal   CSC 2.0 Report

EU Considers ‘Mandatory Ban’ on Threat-Risk Firms in 5G Network Participation.  The European Union is considering a ban on the participation of telecommunications companies that pose a threat to 5G networks, including Chinese firm Huawei.  Unnamed EU officials told the Financial Times that some EU member states are “dragging their feet” on the issue.  Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal markets commissioner, recently told telecommunications ministers that only one-third of EU nations have blocked Huawei from participating in “critical parts” of EU 5G systems.  Consequently, Breton said, the situation “exposes the union’s collective security.”  Existing EU guidelines on 5G networks specify certification requirements but do not address bans on network participation.  Observers say companies deemed by the EU to be a security risk could be subject to a mandatory ban if member states, such as Germany, continue to delay a community-wide policy.  The EU executive branch will report next week on progress toward implementing recommendations for 5G involvement.  Any new law on the issue would require the support of the European Parliament and member states, a process that likely will delay any rules on bans until after the current European Commission ends its term in 2024.  For its part, Huawei said “excluding specific suppliers from the system without proper technological evaluation” violates principles of fairness and contradicts “the laws and regulations of the European Union and its member states.”  Financial Times

FBI Warns of Rise in Deepfake ‘Sextortion’ Incidents.  The FBI issued a public warning this week concerning ‘deepfakes’ with sexually explicit content that have been used to target victims in extortion schemes.  The FBI explained that content taken from targets’ social media accounts or other digital sources can be transformed to create explicit visual representations that appear to be of the victims themselves.  The deepfakes are then made available on social media or pornographic websites.  The FBI said there is a growing number of “sextortion” cases in which threat actors have demanded payments or actual video content of victims in order to refrain from posting the deepfakes.  This led the FBI to be cautious when posting visual content online as “the images and videos can provide malicious actors an abundant supply of content to exploit for criminal activity.”  Parents have been urged to monitor their children’s online activity and use privacy settings and multi-step authentication to safeguard web accounts.  The Hill   BleepingComputer 

Clop Ransomware Compromise of MOVEit Vulnerability Prompts CISA Warning.  The Clop threat group published an extortion note on its leak site Wednesday in the wake of its campaign to exploit a vulnerability in the MOVEit file transfer tool.  The Clop note said the “hundreds” of business organizations impacted by the MOVEit compromise will be named on the site if they do not contact the group.  The deadline for companies to make contact is June 14, after which the cybercrime group said it “will post your name on this page.”  Apart from Clop claims, it is not known how many firms have been affected by the campaign.  Security researchers last week identified more than 2,000 instances – mostly in the U.S. — where the tool was exposed to the Internet.  CISA issued an advisory on Wednesday, warning that Clop in the past has “compromised more than 3,000 U.S.-based organizations and 8,000 global organizations.”  Government agencies may be at heightened risk of compromise because the MOVEit tool is widely used in the public sector.  The Clop message claimed that “if you are a government, city or police service do not worry, we erased all your data. You do not need to contact us. We have no interest to expose such information.”  The Record

Senator Circulates AI Legislative Framework Proposing Corporate Guardrails.  Senator Josh Hawley, the ranking member of the Judiciary subcommittee on privacy and technology, is sharing with Senate colleagues a framework for corporate AI R&D built around five principles, including a provision for legal relief for those harmed by AI applications.  The proposal also would impose fines for collection of personal data without consent, would restrict companies from making AI tools available to children, and would ban AI technology exports from China.  Licenses would be required for firms creating generative AI models.  In an interview with Axios, Hawley said that Congress needs to ensure “individuals have real power here,” adding that AI’s capabilities will be "in the hands of corporations and governments."  Hawley said he was optimistic that bipartisan agreement is possible on AI legislation, but warned that previous efforts to produce technology regulations had been thwarted by intense lobbying efforts.  A repeat of that campaign concerns Hawley, who said "I think that's absolutely where we're headed ... where these very powerful, very rich, very influential corporations will begin to circle the wagons."  Axios 

China Constructing World’s ‘Most Powerful’ Shipboard Threat Radar.  A team of scientists and engineers led by the Harbin University of Science and Technology have begun construction of a shipboard radar system that claims to be the world’s most powerful.  According to a research paper in the Chinese journal, Electric Machines and Control, the radar can detect a ballistic missile from as far away as 2800 miles and can track multiple targets at a range of up to 2100 miles.  The new capability potentially “could shift the balance of naval power in the world’s oceans.”  The team reports the radar can be installed on new Chinese warships, “with the first system already in construction.”  The usual problem of massive power requirements for radar, the researchers say, has been resolved “making the system suitable for newer ships with electric propulsion systems.”  According to the research paper, the new-generation active phased array radar is comprised of “tens of thousands” of transceivers, far more than traditional devices. Transceiving arrays, the paper notes, can operate as independent radars, and when linked can generate pulse electromagnetic signals as powerful as 30 megawatts.  South China Morning Post

UK Plans Removal of Chinese-Technology Surveillance Gear from Sensitive Sites.  The UK Cabinet Office plans to instruct all central government departments to remove surveillance equipment manufactured by Chinese firms from sensitive sites.  The order will extend to companies covered by China’s National Intelligence Law.  Included in the removal order is equipment from Dahua and Hikvision, the world’s largest manufacturers of video surveillance technology.  The government said a timeline for removal will be produced within six months of the proposal becoming law.  Cabinet Office minister Jeremy Quin, in announcing the government plan, said: “These new measures will protect our sensitive sectors from companies which could threaten national security and are a firm deterrence to hostile actors who wish to do Britain harm.”  Last November the Cabinet Office told government departments to stop installing Chinese-made visual surveillance equipment.  As it stands, at least one-third of British police forces use surveillance cameras made by Hikvision.  Hikvision said in an emailed statement: "We believe that the possible action by the UK Government is a further step up of the mounting geopolitical tensions being expressed through technology bans, which by no means relates to the security of Hikvision’s products."  Financial Times Reuter

Dutch Privacy Watchdog Asks OpenAI for Insights into Data Collection, Storage Practices.  The Dutch Data Protection Authority (DPA) expressed concern on Wednesday over AI developers’ use of personal data, and specifically asked for information from ChatGPT’s producer, OpenAI.  The DPA said it will take a variety of actions in the future, but as an initial move has asked OpenAI “to clear up some things about ChatGPT.”  DPA wants to determine how OpenAI gathers and stores data used in its software language models.  Reuters

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief