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Thursday, June 29, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden, Scholz Say Putin Weakened by Wagner Mutiny, Extent Unclear.  President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “absolutely” been weakened by the Wagner mutiny over the weekend.  While he noted that it is “hard to tell” how much Putin has been weakened, Biden said, “I know he is.”  Biden added that Putin is “clearly losing the war” and that he has “become a bit of a pariah around the world,” not only in NATO or the EU, but elsewhere like Japan.  It was Biden’s most direct comment on the uprising besides his initial remarks distancing the U.S. and its allies from the matter to deny Putin a reason to blame the West for the rebellion.  Moving forward, Biden said it is “still too early to reach a definitive conclusion” about long-term impacts of the Wagner mutiny, but he affirmed that the U.S. and its allies will be ready to respond accordingly.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz echoed Biden, telling German media that he believes Putin is “weakened” and that the Wagner uprising showed “he is not as firmly in the saddle as he always asserts.”  Scholz also said it is unclear whether Ukraine’s resistance against Russia will be “easier or harder through these events.”  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said separately that the Wagner uprising could potentially benefit Ukraine, saying it may help that “Moscow is distracted by its own internal divisions” and that Wagner forces are “no longer on the front lines.”  Bloomberg CNN Reuters

U.S. Approves Potential $15 Billion Arms Sale to Poland.  The Biden administration on Wednesday approved a potential sale of an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) to Poland worth $15 billion.  The sale would include 48 Patriot launch stations and 644 Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) 3 Missile Segment Enhanced (MSE) interceptor missiles, as well as sensors, network links and other supporting equipment.  The proposed sale aims to bolster Poland’s missile defense capability and further enhance interoperability with the U.S. and other regional allies.  Notably, while the announcement about the proposed sale indicated the State Department’s approval, it did not say if a contract has been signed or if negotiations on the sale have been concluded.  Reuters US DoD DSCA

Most Americans Back Military Support for Ukraine, Poll Finds.  A  majority of Americans support providing further military aid to Ukraine, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.  The poll found an increase in support for military support for Kyiv, with 65% of respondents backing military aid compared to 46% in a May poll.  The new poll also found solid support across partisan lines, with 81% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 57% of independents favoring sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine.  The poll, which was conducted days after the Wagner Group mutiny, appears to back the Biden administration’s policy of doing “whatever it takes,” as well as Congressional leadership efforts, to help Ukraine liberate territories taken by Russian forces.  Beyond Ukraine’s needs, the poll also found that 76% of Americans think supporting Ukraine sends a message to China and other rivals that the U.S. can and will protect its interests and allies.  Reuters

U.S. House Members Visiting Taiwan.  A bipartisan delegation of U.S. House members are currently visiting Taiwan.  The group is being led by the top Republican and Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee – House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers and Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith. The delegation reportedly met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, marking the latest in a series of high-level U.S. engagements with Taiwan, including Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai in California in April and then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August 2022.  CNBC News Politico

U.S. Senate Committee Seeking Annual Briefings on China’s Political Influence Operations.  The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee has called for the intelligence community to give it annual classified briefings on Chinese political influence operations and information warfare targeting the U.S.  According to the panel’s annual authorization bill, which the committee passed last week, the briefing must include information on the Chinese government’s use of disinformation, press manipulation, economic coercion, targeted investments, corruption and academic censorship aimed at shaping U.S. actions and values in favor of Beijing’s interests.  The briefings should also include information on the tools and tactics China uses in its influence operations and responses by the U.S. Foreign Malign Influence Center to identify, expose and counter such efforts.  The committee’s bill must pass the full Senate, be reconciled with the House’s intelligence bill — which includes provisions for the House Armed Services Committee and House Intelligence Committee to get regular briefings on U.S. military information operations — and be signed by the president for the provision to come into effect.  DefenseScoop

Western Europe

Koran Burning Protest Takes Place at Stockholm Mosque.  A man burned a Koran at a protest outside of Stockholm’s central mosque during Eid celebrations on Wednesday.  Swedish police, who granted permission for the protest to take place, later charged the man with agitation against an ethnic or national group.  The incident is likely to further anger Turkey, which has refused to back Sweden’s application to join NATO for allegedly harboring people Ankara considers terrorists.  Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fiden condemned the Koran burning, saying it is unacceptable that Sweden allow anti-Islam protests in the name of freedom of speech.  Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson did not comment on how the protest would impact Sweden’s NATO membership bid, only saying that the protests was “legal but not appropriate” and that it is the police that have the final say on approving such demonstrations.  Reuters

Switzerland Rejects Leopard Tank Transfer To Ukraine.  Switzerland has blocked a deal for arms maker Ruag AG to sell nearly 100 Leopard tanks that would eventually have seen them given to Ukraine.  The deal would have seen Ruag take 96 non-operational Leopard 1 tanks it currently has stored in Italy and transfer them to Germany for refurbishment to be sent to Ukraine.  The Swiss government said the deal would have been “inconsistent with applicable law” given Switzerland’s neutrality, which prevents the export of arms bound for an active conflict zone.  This rejected deal is unconnected to a separate sale of 25 Leopard 2 tanks from the Swiss army to German company Rheinmetall AG.  That sale will go through by next year and was approved since Germany promised not to send those tanks to Ukraine and only use them to fill gaps in its own military.  Bloomberg  

France’s Macron Calls for Crisis Meeting after Second Night of Protests.  French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday called a crisis meeting with top officials after a second night of violent protests in Paris and surrounding cities over the killing of a teenager by police. During a visit to Marseille, Macron called the shooting “inexplicable and unforgivable” while also urging protesters to remain calm. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin reported 150 arrests nationwide. Around 2,000 riot police have been deployed in the Paris suburbs.  Reuters Al Jazeera Washington Post 

Central and Eastern Europe

Lithuania Sending NASAMS to Ukraine.  Lithuania’s defense ministry announced on Wednesday that Lithuania is buying two NASAMS defense launcher systems for 9.8 million euros ($10.7 million) to give to Ukraine.  Lithuania and Norwegian producer Kongsberg Gruppen signed the contract for the systems on Tuesday.  The ministry said the launchers will be delivered within three months and that they are being sent to fulfill an Ukrainian request for help to bolster its air defenses against Russian strikes.  Separately, Lithuania will also send 10 M113 armored personnel carriers in addition to the NASAMS.  Barron's Reuters RFE/RL Ukrinform 

Wagner’s Prigozhin Planned to Capture Russian Military Leaders.  Western officials say that Wagner Group chief Yevegeny Prigozhin reportedly planned to capture Russia’s military leadership in his mutiny and that he prematurely launched the plot after Russia’s domestic intelligence agency became aware of his plans.  Officials say Prigozhin originally planned to capture Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valeriy Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s general staff, when the two visited a southern Russian region bordering Ukraine.  The FSB then discovered the plot two days before the visit, forcing Prigozhin to act sooner than planned.  The acceleration of the plot may be the reason for its ultimate failure, as Western officials said if the original plot took place it would have had a good chance of success.  Western officials say Prigozhin told senior Russian military officers about his plans, possibly including senior Russian General Sergei Surovikin, who the New York Times said had knowledge of the scheme.  It is unclear if Surovikin or other officers may have tipped the FSB off to the mutiny plot.  The commander of the National Guard of Russia, General Viktor Zolotov, had previously said Russian authorities knew of Prigozhin’s rebellion before it was launched.  Wall Street Journal

Russia Seizing Control of Wagner Group’s Global Network.  The Russian government has moved to swiftly seize control of the Wagner Group’s assets and global network following the mercenary organization’s snorted mutiny.  Russia’s deputy foreign minister flew to Syria’s capital, Damascus, to personally deliver a message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Wagner forces would no longer operate independently within Syria.  Senior Russian officials also directly called the President of the Central African Republic to ensure that the mutiny in Russia would not stifle Russia’s expansion and support in Africa. It was also noted that Russian government planes flew from Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations from Syria to Mali as it is another of Wagner’s foreign strongholds. These efforts were all part of a major diplomatic initiative to downplay the turmoil within Russia from the uprising and assure foreign partners that Russian security operations, offered by Wagner, would continue without interruption. Currently, Wagner’s troops have until July 1 to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, leave for Belarus, or lay down arms.  Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has previously said that his men would not accept the contracts. It is unclear whether or not this is true and if Prigozhin aims to continue control of the organization and its global reach while exiled in Belarus.  Wall Street Journal

Russia Increasingly Using Suicide Drones.  Ukrainian soldiers say that Russia is ramping up its use of low-cost suicide “Lancet” drones, calling them one of the main threats they face in the battlefield.  Lancet drones carry a relatively small explosive payload, ranging from 1.5-5 kg.  While less powerful than standard missiles, they are difficult to defend against and are capable of accurately hitting targets.  The drones reportedly cost Moscow about $35,000. In comparison, it is estimated that one S-300 missile costs a couple hundred thousand dollars and a Leopard 2 tank is worth several million.  Experts say that Russian forces are turning to Lancet drones as a cheap way to hit high-value Ukrainian assets.  The use of the Lancets adds to the importance of drones on both sides of the Ukraine war.  Reuters

Kharkiv Shelling Kills Three.  Russian shelling killed three civilians in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region near the Russian border on Wednesday.  The head of Kharkiv’s regional military administration, Oleh Syniehubov, confirmed the attack on the Ukrainian village of Vochanski Khutory.  CNN Ukrinform

Russia, Cuba Defense Ministers Meet in Moscow.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with his Cuban counterpart Alvaro Lopez in Moscow this week, days after the Wagner mutiny.  Media reports said the two defense chiefs discussed expanding military cooperation between their countries.  The Russian military said that Lopez criticized U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia and reiterated that Havana believes NATO expansion goals led to the Ukraine war.  The meeting came after the U.S. voiced concern over reports that China is planning a spy base and military facilities in Cuba, which Havana has denied.  Reuters 

General Surovikin Reportedly Arrested after Wagner Mutiny.  Russian General Sergei Surovikin, former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine and commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, has reportedly been detained, according to The Moscow Times citing anonymous sources in the Russian Defense Ministry.  Surovikin has not been seen in public since the Wagner Group mutiny, during which he posted a video supposedly condemning the uprising.  One source said that Surovikin “chose Prigozhin's side during the uprising, and they've gotten him.” The source would not reveal Surovikin’s location, saying “we are not even commenting on this information through our internal channels." On Wednesday, a pro-war blogger reported that Surovikin was arrested on Sunday and is now imprisoned at Moscow's infamous Lefortovo detention facility, and a radio station reported that Surovikin has not contacted his family in three days.  Reports of his alleged arrest come after the New York Times reported that Surovikin had advanced knowledge of Prigozhin's scheme to mutiny. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called such reports “gossip” and “speculation” and indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin had not yielded to Wagner Group chief Prigozhin's demands during his uprising for a change in Russia’s top military leaders.  Moscow Times  Al Jazeera  

Ukraine Arrests Man Suspected of Aiding Russia in Deadly Kramatorsk Missile Attack.  Ukrainian officials on Wednesday detained a man who is accused of treason for aiding Russia in executing a missile attack on a restaurant in Kramatorsk. According to the office of the Ukrainian prosecutor general, the man helped Russia target the busy restaurant by taking videos of vehicles with military license plates in its parking lot and sending the footage to Moscow’s secret service. The National Police reported that a dozen people were killed and at least 60 wounded in the strike on Tuesday evening. In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “anyone who helps Russian terrorists destroy lives deserves the maximum punishment.”  Al Jazeera PBS News 

Asia and Oceania

US to Send Largest Nuclear-Armed Submarine to South Korea.  The U.S. is planning to send its largest nuclear-armed submarine, an Ohio-class warship, to South Korea for the first time in four decades.  The Ohio-class submarine can stay submerged indefinitely for months-long patrols and can fire nuclear warheads at targets thousands of miles away.  Washington and Seoul have not disclosed when the Ohio-class submarine will visit South Korea.  The visit is meant to deter North Korea and is part of a U.S.-South Korean deal agreed to in April, in which South Korea recommitted to not developing its own nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. offering Seoul a larger role in consultations on potential U.S. nuclear response to a North Korean attack, as well as promising to deploy strategic nuclear assets, like nuclear-armed submarines and B-52 bombers, to the region.  Experts say that while a port call by an Ohio-class submarine will reassure Seoul, it will also likely push Pyongyang to double down on its weapons and nuclear programs.  Wall Street Journal

China, Russia Hold Missile Defense Talks.  China and Russia held missile defense talks in Moscow on Tuesday.  The Russian foreign ministry said both sides discussed the “global and regional dimensions” of missile defense and said such consultations would continue “regularly.”  China has yet to comment on the talks.  Beijing and Moscow have engaged in anti-missile cooperation for years, which experts say is focused on opposition to U.S. missile defense systems, especially in Japan and South Korea.  In March, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin released a joint statement expressing concern over the U.S.’s “acceleration of the construction of the global anti-missile system and deployment of anti-missile systems around the world.”  South China Morning Post

U.S. Deputy Secretary Of State Speaks With Chinese Ambassador.  U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman held talks with China’s ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng on Tuesday.  The U.S. State Department said the call was “substantive” and aimed to “follow up” on U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to Beijing.  The department added that Sherman reiterated calls for “open channels of communication” and said that the U.S. will use “diplomacy” to voice concerns and find areas of cooperation.  During the call, Xie reportedly urged the U.S. to “properly handle” sensitive and important issues, including Taiwan, and “demonstrate respect and remove obstacles with concrete actions” to manage relations and bring them “back to the right track.”  The talk came days after President Joe Biden called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “dictator,” which Xie responded to by warning the U.S. of “consequences” for negative comments that cast doubt on the “sincerity” of U.S. outreach.  South China Morning Post

Taiwan to Acquire NATO Communications System, U.S. Drones.  A senior Taiwanese defense official confirmed that the US would assist Taiwan in acquiring NATO’s Link 22 tactical communications system.  Washington views the advanced data link and radio system as critical to bolstering Taiwan’s defenses since the island doesn’t have its own satellite system and it will boost Taiwanese forces’ ability to counter communications jamming.  Link 22 will also increase interoperability as it will be a step up from the Link 16 system Taiwan already has, which is compatible with non-U.S. weapons.  Experts note that Link 22 will also help supplement Taiwan’s planned acquisition of four advanced surveillance and reconnaissance drones, as well as additional MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones in 2025.  Notably, experts also note that it will take time for Link 22 to be operable in Taiwan since it is unclear if Taiwan or NATO members besides the U.S. will share operational codes needed to operate the system.  South China Morning Post

Australian Defense Minister Visiting Solomon Islands.  Australia’s deputy prime minister and defense minister Richard Marles is visiting the Solomon Islands for security talks as China moves to increase its influence over Pacific island nations.  Marles met with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who said talks were “productive” and focused on “deepening partnership” on areas like regional security and infrastructure.  Sogavare added that there needs to be a review of the current security treaty between Australia and the Solomon Islands to address “changing security challenges.”  Next week, Sogavare is expected to visit China, which has taken steps to deepen its role in the Solomon Islands’ police force and increase investment funding in the Pacific island nation.  Reuters

Cambodia Deploys Troops to Vietnam Border to Down Drones.  Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered troops to Cambodia’s eastern border with Vietnam in response to reports of unidentified drones in the area flying into Cambodian territory.  He said he would award $200,000 to any military unit that downs a drone and encouraged his troops to expend large amounts of ammunition to intercept incurring drones.  He added that he does not think the drones were sent from Vietnam, saying he did not see a reason for Vietnam to do so and that the Vietnamese government told him it did not know where the drones came from.  Hun Sen suggested the drones may be linked to recent attacks by armed groups in central Vietnam.  Nikkei Asia 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Blinken Says Restoring Saudi Arabia-Israel Relations Possible,  U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Wednesday that establishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is possible since both sides are interested in normalization. Israeli officials have confirmed they are seeking rapprochement with Riyadh while Saudi officials say they are sticking with the Arab Peace Initiative, which says normalization of relations will occur once Israel withdraws from Arab territories, a Palestinian state is established, and a “fair solution” for Palestinian refugees is found.  While both sides have reportedly taken steps to normalize relations, the conflict between Israel and Palestine remains as a main obstacle. Al Jazeera

Meeting between Israeli and Palestinian Officials to Discuss Violence.  Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, announced on Tuesday that he held a meeting with a Senior Palestinian official to discuss the ongoing violence in the West Bank.  Gallant reportedly reassured the Palestinian official that Israel intends to crack down on Israeli settlers. The meeting came as Israel’s military, police, and domestic security service chiefs issued a joint statement stating that they would take countermeasures against “nationalist terrorism”. The UN Security Council on Tuesday “called on all parties to refrain from unilateral actions that further inflame tensions.”  Al Jazeera Reuters

Shooting Outside US Consulate in Jeddah Kills Two.  Authorities in Saudi Arabia and the United States confirmed Wednesday that a shooting outside of the US consulate in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah killed two people. A Nepalese private security guard and the gunman after the latter drove up to the consulate and started shooting, according to a Mecca Region police spokesperson. The gunman was reportedly killed by security forces.  The US State Department said that no American citizens were harmed in the incident. The US consulate in Jeddah has been attacked several times in the past.

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan Fighting Continues Despite Eid Truces.  Residents in Sudan’s capital Khartoum reported continued air raids and anti-aircraft strikes on Wednesday despite both Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declaring unilateral ceasefires to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. Locals reported intensified fighting in the city of Omdurman in the wider capital region.  Al Jazeera 

Germany to Rush Mali Withdrawal as Peacekeeping Mission Terminates.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Wednesday that Germany aims to get the 1,000 troops it has deployed to Mali out as fast as possible, as the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA ends on June 30th. Pistorius told broadcaster ZDF, “for us, this means that we will try to get out even faster, to get out of Mali but in an orderly way.” Germany has already begun the withdrawal process and seeks to finish in May of 2024. German soldiers are primarily posted in the northern city of Goa, where their duty is to gather military observations for MINUSMA to support local and foreign troops fighting armed groups. Mali has recently called for the UN mission, which has 12,000 military personnel in the African nation, to leave.  Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

White House Releases Cybersecurity Budget Priorities for Fiscal Year 2025.  The Office of Management and Budget and the Office of the National Cyber Director released a memorandum on Tuesday that outlines the federal government’s five top cybersecurity budget priorities for fiscal year 2025.  The five priorities are the same as those in the U.S. National Cybersecurity Strategy: to defend critical infrastructure, disrupt and dismantle threat actors, shape market forces to drive security and resilience, invest in a resilient future and forge international partnerships to pursue shared goals.  The memo said that agencies’ cyber budget submissions must be consistent with these priorities and that OMB and ONCD will review requests to “identify potential gaps.”  Regarding specifics, the memo says agencies should modernize defenses by implementing the federal zero-trust strategy, improving baseline cybersecurity requirements and scaling public-private collaboration.  The memo also calls for agencies to disrupt criminal infrastructure, “combat the abuse of virtual currency,” and participate in interagency task forces to counter threat actors.  Furthermore, the memo says to influence market forces by using skills-based methods for the cyber workforce, following national security directives on post-quantum future, and strengthening international partnerships and supply chains for critical technologies.  The memo additionally highlights that ransomware continues to be a key threat.  CyberScoop

U.S. Lawmakers Call for End to China Tech Agreement.  Ten U.S. lawmakers are calling against the renewal of a four-decades old science and technology cooperation agreement with China, saying that the pact has helped China’s military development.  The agreement – called the “Agreement between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China on cooperation in science and technology” (STA) – was signed in 1979 during the Carter administration to “strengthen friendly relations” between Beijing and Washington.  The agreement will expire on August 27.  The Congress members opposing extending the pact, including chairman of the House select committee on China Mike Gallagher, say there are reports that research from the scheme “could have developed technologies that would later be used against the U.S.”  The lawmakers specifically said the pact may have helped China develop “balloon technology” similar to that developed by the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to “surveil U.S. military sites on U.S. territory.”  The lawmakers also said joint research on agricultural technologies is a concern and could support China’s goal for self-reliance in agriculture tech.  Experts say that if the pact is allowed to expire, it will show Washington’s seriousness to decouple from Beijing, which could further fragment global scientific research.  South China Morning Post 

U.S. Considering Further Curbs on AI Exports to China.  The U.S. is reportedly considering imposing additional artificial intelligence (AI) export controls on China to keep the most advanced U.S. semiconductors from being used in China’s military modernization.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Department of Commerce is weighing measures that would further restrict chip shipments from companies like Nvidia to Chinese buyers as soon as next month.  The U.S. previously restricted Nvidia from selling its cutting-edge A100 and H100 chips to China.  The company developed the less powerful A800 chip to workaround the restriction, but the new rules may even require this chip to be subject to export licenses for shipment to China.  Beyond chips, the U.S. is also reportedly considering limiting leasing of cloud services to Chinese AI companies, which have been using cloud services to compensate for chip bans.  Financial Times Nikkei Asia TechCrunch Wall Street Journal

U.S. Tech Firm Manager Sold Tech to Russia.  Reuters reports that a senior manager from U.S. technology company Extreme Networks privately sold IT equipment to Russia.  Extreme said last year it suspended business activities in Russia in solidarity with the Ukrainian people, who it said are “living under attack” by Russian forces.  According to Reuters, the manager, Sergey Gusakov, who oversaw Extreme’s business in former Soviet republics, created his own company Vektor-T in April 2022 to sell IT equipment from a competitor of Extreme to Russian clients.  The equipment was reportedly assembled in China and contains U.S. microprocessors, according to customs data.  The Chinese sourcing of the equipment underscores limits in U.S. export controls aimed at keeping U.S. chips from Russia.  Gusakov reportedly ran Vektor-T for over a year, despite a co-worker at Extreme reporting his activities.  Extreme has said it is investigating the matter and that Vektor-T’s operations were outside of its control.  Reuters previously found Extreme had sold IT equipment to a U.S. sanctioned military company that produces misiles for Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.  Extreme later acknowledged it had done business with “bad actors” and said it would implement “best in class” export controls.  Reuters

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