Thursday, June 22, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden Meets With India’s Modi, Seek to Bolster Defense Ties. President Joe Biden on Wednesday hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is also set to address Congress on Thursday. Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, two Muslim women in Congress, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — will boycott in protest of the Indian PM’s human rights record towards Muslims and other religious minorities. Biden is expected to raise human rights issues with Modi, but is also eager to foster a deeper relationship with the world’s most populous democracy, in part as an attempt to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Biden administration is also expected to bolster Indian-U.S. ties in defense cooperation, military systems, and technology, with a deal that would allow General Electric and India-based Hindustan Aeronautics to manufacture jet engines in India. The two leaders are also expected to finalize a separate U.S. sale of armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones to India. Officials also say the U.S. and India have reached a maritime deal that would allow U.S. Navy ships to port in Indian shipyards. Experts say these deals are part of U.S. efforts to distance India from both China and Russia. New Delhi maintains neutrality in the Ukraine war, and has continued to purchase Russian arms and oil at bargain prices. In addition to the defense deals, the State Department is set to announce plans to open consulates Bengaluru and Ahmedabad, and India will reopen its Seattle consulate. At a Friday reception, Modi will speak with U.S. CEOs, as American businesses seek new investments in India. Associated Press CNN NBC News Reuters
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer Joins Call for AI Regulations. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer joined a chorus of voices on Wednesday calling for new artificial intelligence regulations that protect privacy, intellectual property, and national security, while also ensuring that innovation is not hindered. Schumer plans to hold a series of forums in the fall to gather insights from industry leaders, interest groups, and AI developers to discuss the tech, which follows a Biden administration roundtable discussion with tech leaders in San Francisco. Associated Press Wall Street Journal Washington Post
U.S. Sanctions Myanmar Defense Ministry, Banks. The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Wednesday sanctioned Myanmar’s defense ministry and two banks — the Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank (MFTB) and Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank (MICB) — which are used by Myanmar's military junta to use and transmit foreign currencies to buy weapons and other goods. The sanctions aim to stem the flow of weapons to Myanmar’s military regime. A Myanmar military spokesperson dismissed the new sanctions, saying the country has weathered such past measures and that the new measures will “cause unnecessary delays” in the junta’s supposed “walk towards the multi-party democratic system.” Experts say while the sanctions do not target gas projects that Myanmar relies on for a major source of revenues, the latest measures may restrict its ability to purchase arms and materials for weapons usage and production. Thailand has expressed concerns about the sanctions’ impact on the region due to links to the Myanmar banks, but the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok said it is regularly engaging with the Thai government on mitigating such effects. Al Jazeera Bloomberg Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
Former Air National Guardsmen Behind Discord Leaks Pleads Not Guilty to Federal Charges. Former Air National Guardsmen Jack Teixeira has pleaded not guilty to six federal charges of willful retention and transmission of classified documents related to national defense after allegedly leaking highly-classified documents on the social media platform Discord. Documents leaked included detailed intelligence assessments of allies and adversaries including the state of the war in Ukraine. Teixeira’s next hearing is set for August 9, 2023. CNN Politico Washington Post
Honduras Hands Over Prison Control to Military Police. Honduras is set to transfer much of the country's penal system to the military police for the next year, and turn islands hundreds of kilometers from the coast into a penal colony for “highly dangerous” gang leaders, the Central American country's presidential office said Wednesday. The moves come in response to a prison riot on Tuesday that left as many as 46 people dead. The riots are the latest in a series of deadly prison incidents that officials say have been coordinated by gang leaders in a bid to control drug and human trafficking. The Central American country has the world’s 4th highest murder rate. Reuters
Western Europe
Blinken, Swedish Foreign Minister Urge Turkey to Back Sweden’s NATO Bid. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom on Wednesday urged Turkey to start the ratification process for Sweden’s NATO membership bid, asserting that Stockholm has met security obligations under an accord with Ankara. Billstrom said “we have done what was expected of us” and hopes Turkey will allow Sweden to join NATO by the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July, adding that Stockholm has no “Plan B.” On the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Summit in London, U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with his new Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan to also press for Ankara to support Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Turkey has blocked Sweden’s membership in the alliance over concerns that the Nordic nation harbors members of groups that Ankara considers to be terrorist organizations. To allay these concerns, Sweden passed a new anti-terror law to crack down on financing or supporting terrorist groups. But Turkey has remained steadfast in its refusal to back Sweden’s application to join NATO, citing recent anti-Turkish protests in Stockholm as evidence that its security concerns have not been addressed. Al Jazeera Reuters
EU Passes Sanctions Package Against Russia. The EU on Wednesday passed an 11th round of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The new package blocks transit of additional dual-use goods and technology which could potentially be used by the Russian military, namely by enabling restrictions on the sale of such products to third-party countries that may sell them to Moscow. The sanctions package also bans ships engaged in ship-to-ship transfers from access to EU ports if they are suspected of carrying cargo with Russian origin. Furthermore, the sanctions package also extends the suspension of EU broadcasting licenses of five Russian state-backed media outlets. Additionally, the package sanctions a further 71 individuals and 33 entities for involvement in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Greece and Hungary initially held up the package over the listing of some of their companies. Greece gave its approval after five Greek shipping firms were removed, and Hungary said it will raise the listing of a Hungarian bank at a later date. Germany also pushed for the removal of several Chinese entities after it pledged to pressure them to stop selling Russian goods that can support its war effort. Reuters
Potential Gas Explosion Rocks Central Paris. An explosion tore through a street in central Paris, injuring at least 37 people and partially collapsing a building. Authorities are searching for people feared buried in rubble. Paris police say they are investigating if the blast was a gas explosion. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Counteroffensive ‘Slower Than Desired’ But Zelensky Says Kyiv Won’t Be Rushed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is going “slower than desired.” Speaking in a BBC interview, he said that Ukraine’s offensive operations are mainly being impeded due to Russia’s mining of 200,000 square kilometers (77,220 square miles) of Ukrainian occupied territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to echo these remarks, saying that Russia has seen a “lull” in Ukraine’s counteroffensive and that Kyiv understands it has “no chance” in its counteroffensive. Ukraine says it reclaimed only one additional town last week, bringing the number of liberated villages to eight; Reuters confirmed that Ukrainian forces have advanced several kilometers. Despite marginal gains, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not be rushed in its counteroffensive, saying that while some expect immediate success akin to a “Hollywood movie,” Ukraine will “advance on the battlefield the way we deem best.” Ukrainian defense officials say Ukraine’s military continues to push on front lines and is consolidating liberated areas. Politico Reuters The Guardian
Ukraine Tells West It Needs Over $7 Billion More To Rebuild. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Wednesday that he is seeking nearly $7 billion in aid for post-war reconstruction. Speaking at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, Shmyhal stated that Russia’s war meant that Ukraine was facing the largest reconstruction project since WWII. At the conference, the U.S., EU, and others pledged billions of dollars in additional aid, as Ukraine said that it needed more funds and commitments to projects to develop into a powerful member of the Western World. Yet, despite these massive commitments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was blunt and said that Kyiv needed further concrete commitments to projects that would help Ukraine not only recover but modernize. Prior to the conference, a senior Ukrainian official said that Ukraine is seeking up to $40 billion to fund the first part of its “Green Marshall Plan” to rebuild the economy and develop a coal-free steel industry. In addition to large aid commitments, Western officials hope that the conference will encourage the private sector to invest in projects within Ukraine to help speed up its reconstruction. Reuters
Kyiv Mayor Says Opponents Trying to Oust Him Over Bomb Shelter Scandal. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko accused opponents of pursuing a campaign to discredit him and force him out of the office after a rift with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksky over bomb shelters in the capital city. An audit by Zelensky found that 15% of Kyiv’s 4,655 bomb shelters were suitable and only 44% were easily accessible. The audit came after public scrutiny over the shelters following the deaths of three people locked out of a shelter during a Russian attack on Kyiv earlier this month. On Tuesday, prosecutors served a “notice of suspicion” to a senior Kyiv security official for mismanagement. Without mentioning Zelensky, Klitschko criticized the prosecutor’s decision to put the head of Kyiv’s municipal department of security under house arrest following the audit. Prior to the war, Klitschko was seen as one of Zelensky’s highest profile opponents and had a public spat with him in November over emergency response to Russian attacks on Kyiv. Reuters Washington Post
Wagner Founder Says Kremlin ‘Misleading Russians’ Over Ukraine War. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused the Russian defense ministry of not telling the truth about the Ukraine war, regarding loss of territory to Ukrainian troops. Prigozhin said in an audio statement, referring to the defense ministry, that “they are misleading the Russian people,” noting that “huge chunks [of territory] have been handed over to the enemy” and that “all of this is being totally hidden from everyone.” Prigozhin’s comments, which add to his clashes with the Russian military, come as Kyiv reports marginal gains in its counteroffensive, including the liberation of eight settlements. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that Ukrainian troops had sustained “serious losses,” and that there was a “lull” in fighting on the frontlines. Barron's France 24
Moscow Court Rejects Wall Street Journal Reporter Evan Gershkovich Appeal for Release. A Moscow court on Thursday rejected American Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s appeal to be released, ruling that his detention on charges of espionage be extended. The U.S. has denied the spying charges, declared Gershkovich’s detainment wrongful, and demanded his release. Last month, a Moscow court ruled to hold the journalist in custody until August 30th, but his lawyers challenged the decision. Gershkovich is imprisoned at the infamously harsh Lefortovo prison, where U.S. embassy authorities were permitted to visit him only once. Associated Press New York Times
Ukrainian Missiles Reportedly Strike Bridge to Crimea. A barrage of Ukrainian missiles struck the Chonhar road bridge, the so-called "gate to Crimea," Russian-appointed officials said on Thursday. The bridge links Russian-occupied Crimea with parts of the southern Kherson region and has been used by Russian forces. Four missiles were allegedly fired by Ukrainian forces at the bridge, the RIA news agency reported, and the alleged attacks diverted traffic, the officials said. Vladimir Salo, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, posted a photo of a large hole in the surface of the bridge allegedly caused by the attack. A Ukrainian official in Kherson said the attack was a “blow to the military logistics of the occupiers” and that it also had a “psychological impact” as it showed that “there is no place … [in] Kherson region where [the Russians] can feel safe.” Russian forces occupied Crimea in 2014. The peninsula has since been a focus of Ukrainian efforts as the counteroffensive from Kyiv gets further underway. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Says Chinese Carrier Sailed Through Strait. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports that a Chinese aircraft carrier group led by the Shandong transited through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday. The ministry said the Shandong sailed southwards on the western side of the unofficial median line that divides the strait. The ministry added that it deployed “appropriate forces” to monitor the carrier group. The transit occurred just days after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing in a bid to de-escalate U.S.-China tensions. The Shandong participated in Chinese drills near Taiwan in the western Pacific in April in response to U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California. Reuters South China Morning Post
South Korea’s Yoon Visits Vietnam. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam on Thursday for a three-day state visit, which will focus on strengthening collaboration between South Korea and Vietnam on industrial tech and regional security. On Friday, Yoon is attending a summit with Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong on developing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between their countries established last year. Officials say both sides hope to bolster bilateral cooperation in fields such as maritime security, defense production, critical mineral supply chains, renewable energy, innovative science and technology, informational technology, and finance. Traveling with Yoon are over 200 Korean business leaders — including executives from SK Group, Samsung and Hyundai — seeking trade and investment with Vietnam. Vietnam is South Korea’s third largest trade partner; top South Korean conglomerates like Samsung and LG have factories in Vietnam. Korea Herald Korea Times
China Confirms Bomber Night Mission Around Taiwan in 2018. Chinese state media reports that in 2018, China deployed H-6K heavy bombers on a night mission to circle Taiwan. The officer in charge of the mission said in a propaganda video that the bombers “flew beyond the first island chain and towards the West Pacific … patrolled over the South China Sea … [and] cruised around the island of Taiwan at night.” Taiwan’s air force said in 2018 that China conducted the mission. While China’s defense ministry acknowledged an operation took place at the time, it did not say it included bombers or took place at night. News of the mission comes amid reports of other missions in-and-around Taiwan in prior years. South China Morning Post
Commonplace, Deadly Accidents: 31 Killed in Chinese Gas Explosion. At least 31 people were killed and seven wounded in a gas explosion at a restaurant in the Yinchuan province of northwestern China. Chinese President Xi Jinping demanded medical care for the injured, and that those responsible for the blast be held accountable. He also said officials need to address “all types of risks and hidden dangers.” This is only the latest accident in a long series of deadly incidents that regularly occur in China. Despite government promises for reform, corruption, safety violations, relaxed standards, and poor oversight continue to cause such disasters including various fires, mine cave-ins, explosions, building collapses, gas-line ruptures, and chemical-plant blasts. Associated Press
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israeli Drone Strike Leaves Three Dead. An Israeli drone strike left three dead in an apparent retaliation for a Hamas attack near the Eli settlement on Tuesday. Palestinian officials also said one Palestinian was also killed in related Israeli settler attacks, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli security officials called for a military operation in the West Bank and the addition of 1,000 homes in Eli in response to the Hamas attack there. Reuters
Iran, EU Mediator Hold Talks on Reviving Nuclear Deal. Iranian officials met with EU mediator Enrique Mora in Qatar in efforts to revitalize the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Iranian and Western officials have met frequently in the past weeks with the goal of sketching out steps to restore the deal to include steps to curb Iran’s nuclear program, free Western detainees held in Iran and unfreeze Iranian assets overseas. Mora tweeted that the discussions held were “intense” and focused on “a range of difficult, bilateral, regional, and international issues.” The 2015 agreement limited Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade levels in exchange for sanctions relief for Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018. Since then, Iran has gone beyond the JCPOA’s restrictions on enrichment, sparking fears that they are pursuing a nuclear bomb. The meeting came after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that a nuclear deal with the West was possible. Reuters
Qatar Signs Second Major LNG Deal with China. As Qatar undergoes a major increase in production and distribution of liquified natural gas (LNG), China has emerged as a principal destination. The Beijing-overseen China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy on Tuesday inked a 27-year deal, where China will buy 4 million metric tons of LNG per year from Doha. It is the Gulf State’s second major gas supply deal with a Chinese company in less than a year, and reflects a continued outpacing of Europe by Asia for the country’s LNG supply routes, despite Russian gas cut-offs to Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine. Nikkei Asia
Sub Saharan Africa
France Grapples With Pro-Russian Disinformation Campaigns in Africa. France is countering a mounting Russian-backed disinformation campaign in Africa aimed at fostering anti-French sentiments and promoting Moscow as an ally within Central and West Africa. Examples of this campaign include anti-French and pro-Russian content during the French military’s withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso; and a video blaming French forces on a gold mine attack in the Central African Republic that killed nine Chinese nationals. France’s state service for Vigilance and Protection against Foreign Digital Interference (Viginum) identified about 100 Russian- or Wagner-linked accounts pushing such anti-French content in Africa. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told parliament that the anti-French sentiment in Africa could partly be blamed on “hostile actors, coming notably from Russia.” However, not all of the anti-French sentiment can be attributed to Russia or Russia-backed groups. Russian propaganda has been successful within Africa especially due to ill sentiments towards France’s history of military intervention, colonialism and heavy handed diplomacy in the region. French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that some of these criticisms “are true,” referring to the allegation that France had continued to carry colonial attitudes even after the independence of West African states. Despite pushback from France, disinformation campaigns continue to take a strong foothold within Africa in efforts to pull countries away from the West. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
U.S. Cyber Envoy Says ‘Less Than a Year’ to Pass AI Regulations, Raises China Concerns. The U.S. State Department’s cyberspace ambassador, Nate Fick, said the U.S. has “less than a year” to enact effective regulations for generative AI and large language models before the technology is used by threat actors for significant cyber acts. He noted that current American AI giants Google, Microsoft, Open AI and Anthropic have served as trustworthy models, but he is worried a less responsible company may develop a “fifth model.” He added that he is concerned about near-term “huge corrosive effects” from disinformation and misinformation spread by AI, but he is most worried about AI being used for lethal applications like autonomous weapons, biotechnology and some cybersecurity activities. Beyond AI, Fick also discussed competition with China. He highlighted the difficulty of matching China’s geopolitical-minded technology investments in the developing world, the importance of digital alliances, and the vulnerabilities in the West’s insecure communications architectures linked to Beijing as key issues. With all these topics in mind, Fick called for the expansion of the State Department’s role in U.S. cybersecurity policy and promoting the department’s new Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy as a key actor in U.S. global cyber activities. The Record
Microsoft Announces 10-Year Supercomputer Roadmap. Microsoft on Wednesday released a roadmap to build its own quantum supercomputer within 10 years, using the topological qubits it has been working on for several years. As part of its supercomputer plans, Microsoft will be relying on the advanced Majorana-based qubits (which are more stable than qubits made with traditional techniques) it developed last year. The company says it is now working on building hardware-protected qubits, which can perform one qubit operation in less than a microsecond. Once it achieves this, Microsoft will work on entangling these qubits through a mainly theoretical process called braiding to produce a smaller multi qubit system, followed by a full quantum system. Competitors like IBM and IonQ are also making supercomputers, but with more established methods for building qubits. In addition to its supercomputer roadmap, Microsoft announced Azure Quantum Elements, a new platform for accelerating scientific achievements by combining high-performance computing, AI and quantum; and the AI model Copilot for Azure Quantum, which aims to help scientists generate quantum-related calculations and simulations. TechCrunch
China Releases ‘White List’ of Approved ‘Deep Fake’ Technology Suppliers. The Cyber Administration of China, the country’s internet regulator, released its first “white list” of approved suppliers of deep synthesis, or “deep fake,” technology as part of efforts to regulate such generative technologies. The list includes owners of 41 algorithms — including technology giants Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba — who have registered their businesses with Chinese authorities. The CAC says it introduced regulation on the deep synthesis providers to manage deep synthesis services, promote “core socialist values,” protect national security and rights of citizens and companies. China is one of the first countries to impose artificial intelligence regulation to address concerns about potential AI biases and misinformation. South China Morning Post
China Raises Concerns Over AI, U.S. Pressure. China’s recent Security China exhibition focused on technological competition with the U.S, framing it as a primary security challenge for Beijing. According to attendees, this competition is mainly seen in the artificial intelligence craze sparked by the AI chatbot ChatGPT, and U.S. efforts to cut Beijing off from advanced technology. Chinese academics at the forum discussed various ways China is dealing with security threats from this competition, including work on an ‘early warning” system to identify and manage impacts of disruptive technology on China’s national security. Notably, in addition to U.S. competition risks, attendees highlighted concerns about threats of advanced technology itself, raising questions on how China will balance risks from emerging technologies like AI while ensuring the country does not fall behind the U.S. Such sentiments are similar to concerns in the U.S. about fears of Chinese technological dominance clashing with regulations on technological development. While some outside of the conference called for cooperation and the joint managing of risks, attendees noted that viewing the competition as the main threat will likely remain paramount, given different technological norms, standards and values between the U.S. and China. Associated Press
China Using AI to Find Rare Earths Deposit in Himalayas. Chinese geologists have recently discovered a rare-earth mineral belt in the Himalayas believed to be 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) long, but they are facing difficulties identifying specific deposits. Researchers are developing an AI that uses raw data collected by satellites to better pinpoint the deposits. The AI was originally developed two-years ago and had an initial success rate of 60%. As researchers added new variables such as chemical composition, magnetic or electrical properties, spectral data collected by aircraft, and geological maps, the accuracy of the AI increased to over 90%. The new AI could put China ahead in locating rare-earths, which it says will offer it “strategic advantages.” The particular Himalayas deposit is likely to increase regional tensions, particularly with India due to territorial disputes in the region and environmental concerns. South China Morning Post
Canada Warns Russian Hackers Targeting Energy Sector. The Communications Security Establishment (CSE), a Canadian spy agency, warned on Wednesday that Russia-aligned hackers could seek to disrupt Canada’s oil and natural gas sectors. The CSE said it issued the warning due to past efforts by Russian-aligned hackers to deploy destructive cyber attacks against adversaries on a global scale since the Ukraine war, which the agency added they will likely continue to do so until the conflict ends. The CSE added that the most likely targets for cyberattacks were operational technology networks, especially those that monitor and control large industrial assets. Though attacks carried out by these groups are not as sophisticated or technologically capable as their Kremlin-supported counterparts, these groups can still cause major damage. CBC NewsReuters
Russian Launches Propaganda Campaign to Blame Ukraine for Kakhovka Dam Collapse. A study from the German Marshall Fund (GMF) has found that Russian officials and diplomats are coordinating an “aggressive” disinformation campaign to blame Ukraine for the June 6 collapse of the Kakhovka Dam. According to the study, Russian diplomatic and media accounts tweeted “Kakhovka” or “dam” over 1,300 times in the week after the dam’s destruction. The report noted that this marks an increase in activity compared to past similar campaigns — there were 9% more tweets about the dam than about the Bucha massacre and 30% more tweets than about the Nord Stream pipeline blasts. Notably, the report adds that the Kakhovka Dam campaign is not as effective as past similar disinformation operations — despite the increase in dam-related tweets, they are getting 37% less retweets than Bucha posts and 5% fewer retweets than posts about Nord Stream. The researchers say this discrepancy may be due to the mounting evidence that Russia was behind the dam collapse. Moscow maintains Ukraine destroyed the dam to distract from failures in its counteroffensive. The Record
European Council Reduces Spyware Protections for Journalists. The European Council has agreed to reduce the level of protections for journalists from government surveillance under the European Media Freedoms Act (EMFA). As proposed back in September of 2022, the EMFA prohibited governments from spying on journalists and their families as well as banning the use of spyware targeting their devices. These prohibitions could be overridden in the public interest or on the grounds of national security. The amended version of the EMFA has created more scenarios in which these prohibitions can be overridden. Additionally, the new amendments to the EMFA ensure that the law does not interfere with member states’ national security policies. Several states have been accused of spying on journalists in politically-charged cases, including Spain, Hungary and Greece. Opponents to the amendment say it will increase use of spyware against journalists among EU states. The Record
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