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Thursday, June 15, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Senator Blocks Hungary Arms Sale for Stalling Sweden NATO Membership Bid.  The top Republican on the U.S Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that he was blocking a $735 million arms sale to Hungary because they refused to approve Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Jim Risch, the senator, stated “"Given promises that were made to me and others last year that this vote would be done, and the fact that it is now June and still not done, I decided that the sale of new U.S. military equipment to Hungary will be on hold”. The Washington Post reported that the sale was to include 24 HIMARS rocket launcher batteries, and more than 100 rockets and pods, parts, and support. The Hungarian Defense Ministry contradicted the Washington Post’s report by releasing a statement saying that “during the previous government term, the government commissioner in charge of procurement requested information about HIMARS missile systems in a letter with a March 2022 deadline. There was no response from the U.S. side, therefore, the ministry considered the matter “closed”. Last year, Sweden applied to join NATO however, objections from Turkey and Hungary have delayed the bid and now Sweden hopes to join by a NATO summit next month.  Reuters Washington Post

Analysis: A Look at the $1 Billion in Revenue Still Flowing to Russia, from the US.  American nuclear companies are currently paying roughly $1 billion to Russia’s state-owned nuclear agency to buy enriched uranium for American nuclear reactors. The United States used to be a major player in the enriched Uranium market, however, due to historical factors and an initiative to promote Russia’s peaceful nuclear program following the Cold War, the United States has ceased enriching uranium entirely. Roughly one third of all enriched uranium utilized in the U.S. is imported from Russia, the majority of the other two thirds from Europe, and a small portion from a U.K-German owned group operating in the U.S. There also remains a vast, unfinished, enrichment facility in Ohio that is not operational. The Ohio enrichment company said that it could take more than a decade to produce enriched uranium at a level that rivals Rosatom, the Russian nuclear agency. It is also estimated that developing a new enriched uranium supply chain would take several years and a significant amount of government funding. Sen. Joe Manchin III, Chairman of the Senate Energy Committee and sponsor of a bill to rebuild American enrichment capacity remarked that “we cannot be held hostage by nations that don’t have our values, but that’s what happened”. Reliance on Russian uranium leaves nuclear plants vulnerable to a Russian shutdown of enriched uranium sales, a conceivable strategy for Vladimir Putin who has a history of using energy as a diplomatic tool. Yet, despite the war, the United States has made minimal steps to shield itself from this vulnerability. James Krellenstein, the director of GHS Climate, a clean energy consulting firm stated ““It’s inexplicable that over a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration does not appear to have a plan to end this dependence, we could eliminate almost all of America’s dependence on Russian enrichment by finishing the centrifuge plant in Ohio”. These supply chain challenges pose significant strategic difficulties for the United States as it continues to make lofty clean energy goals in the wake of climate change.  The New York Times

U.S. Quietly Engaging With Iran to De Escalate Tensions.  The Biden administration has reportedly restarted talks with Iran to secure the release of Americans detained by Iran and curb the country’s nuclear program.  Sources say the talks began between top U.S. and Iranian officials in New York in December and that White House officials are now making regular visits to Oman for further indirect contacts.  In return for the prisoner exchange and nuclear limits, Iran is reportedly seeking sanctions relief to access frozen Iranian energy revenues, namely $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea and billions more held in Iraq for gas and oil deliveries.  There may have been movement on the Iraqi payments, as sources say that Washington recently approved a 2.5 million euro payment by Iraq to Iran for energy imports.  The reported engagement and apparent progress in talks comes as Washington seeks de-escalation with Tehran.  Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing Confirmed.  Both US and Chinese officials have confirmed Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Beijing next week after a phone call with Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Despite heightened tensions following the spy balloon incident and other sources of friction between China and the US, the visit by a US Secretary of State will be the first in five years. The White House’s national security coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, Kurt Campbell, stated that the two sides have agreed to the visit after several discussions between US and Chinese counterparts. South China Morning Post U.S. Department of State

Western Europe

Turkey’s Erdogan Still Holding Out on Sweden NATO Membership.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Ankara is still not prepared to back Sweden’s application to join NATO, saying that recent anti-Turkish protests by “terrorists” in Stockholm have shown that Sweden has not addressed Turkish security concerns.  Erdogan’s comments referred to recent anti-Turkey and anti-NATO demonstrations in the Swedish capital, during which the flag of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group — which Turkey, and the EU and the US, view as a terrorist organization — was projected on Sweden’s parliament building.  Erdogan has said the Swedish police should stop such protests if Sweden wants Turkey’s approval for its NATO membership.  Turkey, Sweden, Finland and NATO met in Ankara on Wednesday to discuss Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  Stockholm says talks have been good and will continue, though no set date for further discussions has been set.  Al Jazeera Reuters

NATO Chief Urges Common Standards for Defense Production.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said the alliance must set common standards for weapons and military equipment.  He asserted that such standardization is needed to increase defense production to replenish Western military stockpiles and further support Ukraine.  To achieve this, Stoltenberg announced a Defense Production Action Plan to "rapidly address shortfalls in our stocks" and boost interoperability of weapons.  While NATO has some standardization for rounds fired by small arms, munitions like artillery shells are less standardized.  Reuters 

France’s Macron, Saudi Arabia’s MbS to Discuss Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron is set to meet with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in France on Friday. Crown prince bin Salman has already expressed his willingness to mediate in Russia’s war in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia in May. Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

U.S. & NATO Allies Work to Craft Long Term Security Guarantees for Ukraine.  The Biden administration is working with Britain, Germany, and France in formalizing military and economic aid to Ukraine. These four countries are offering to continue the same amount of aid for an indefinite amount of time, but US lawmakers and European allies are not convinced that this is a feasible long-term solution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already asked for a timetable for Ukraine’s membership into NATO to be presented by next month’s summit in Vilnius.  Alliance members agree that Ukraine cannot join NATO while it is actively fighting Russia, but NATO countries are reportedly close to agreeing on how to strengthen its partnership with Kyiv to include a structure for long-term security guarantees and greater standardization of Ukraine’s military with NATO standards.  Simultaneously, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committees, suggested elevating the NATO-Ukraine Commission to a Council, giving Kyiv the authority to call for alliance meetings at any time.  U.S. Senator Chris Coons from Delaware has also recommended that the U.S. refer to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, an agreement that already provides Ukraine with NATO security guarantees following Ukraine’s decision to give up its nuclear weapons.  Politico  Reuters

Poland Reportedly Seeking NATO Chief from Alliance’s Eastern Flank.  Poland is reportedly pushing for the successor to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to come from the alliance’s eastern flank.  European officials say that Poland believes having Stoltenberg’s successor be from a country that was part of the Soviet Union would send a strong message that the alliance stands firm against Russian aggression.  Officials add that Poland has specific concerns with top candidate Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen for next NATO leader, raising issue with Denmark’s failure to meet defense-spending targets and the prospect of another Scandinavian NATO chief.  Poland, and other eastern flank countries, have reportedly suggested Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as an alternative to Frederiksen, though several Western member states have said they worry naming a secretary-general from the eastern flank will be too provocative towards Moscow.  Whomever is selected for the post must be approved by all 31 NATO member states.  Wall Street Journal

Analysis: Ukraine Counteroffensive Takes Shape but Main Test Still To Come.  After a week of fighting, the real test for Ukraine’s military lies ahead. Last week, Ukraine struck in two areas in the southeast of the country and reported the recapture of seven villages. Despite these early victories, the Ukrainian military has reportedly taken heavy losses including western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research institute has stated that “on both sides, a lot of it’s going to come down to attrition, the risk for them (the Ukrainians) is that before they get into that (Russian) defensive lines, they take too much attrition and it’ll be too tough to breach it and exploit it”. Russia has prepared numerous defensive positions consisting of minefields, anti-tank ditches, ‘dragon’s teeth’ barricades, and trenches. Utilizing satellite imagery, Reuters noted that these positions are heavily concentrated in the strategically important south of the country. According to Lee, Moscow’s strategy aims to maximize Ukrainian casualties before Kyiv can reach the main Russian defensive lines about 10-15 km away. Ukraine has been preparing the counteroffensive for at least six months and has created 12 armored brigades for the operation. Nine of these brigades have been trained and equipped by the West. Konrad Muzka, a military analyst in Poland said that only three of the 12 brigades had been seen in combat in the southeast so far. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that troops have advanced up to 6.5 km and seized 90 square km of territory along a 100 km section of the southeastern front line. The counteroffensive has been complicated by a lack of air superiority for Ukraine. Kyiv has also imposed an information blackout in order to maintain operational security making assessments of the situation very difficult.  Reuters

Russian Parliament Moves to Allow Military Recruitment of Criminals.  The lower house of Russia’s parliament on Wednesday voted in favor of legislation that will allow suspected and convicted criminals to sign contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry to fight in Ukraine.  Contracts would be available to those being investigated for committing a crime or those who have been convicted and have not started their sentences.  Contracts will not be available for those convicted of sexual crimes, treason or terrorism.  Those who sign up will be exempt from criminal liability after they fulfill their contract or if they are awarded for their military service.  Russia’s Wagner Group has previously recruited criminals, but said it stopped doing so in February.  Prison rights groups say the Russian defense ministry wants to take over this kind of recruitment with some changes.  Reuters

Serbia Arrests Three Kosovo Police Officers.  Serbian forces arrested three Kosovo police officers on Wednesday, though both sides say the arrests happened on their side of the border, accusing each other of illegally crossing into the other’s territory.  Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said the arrests occurred 300 meters inside Kosovan territory, while Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the arrests occurred as far as 1.8 kilometers (1 mile) within Serbia.  Vucic added that Serbia is willing to have an international inquiry investigate the arrests and move back some of its troops stationed on the border with Kosovo to de-escalate tensions.  Kosovo has banned vehicles with Serbian license plates from entering Kosovo territory in response to the arrests.  Separately, the EU on Wednesday approved measures against Kurti’s government, such as the suspension of high-level visits and financial cooperation with Kosovo, for failing to take steps to de-escalate tensions with Serbia.  Reuters 

Asia

Japan Considering Giving Artillery Shells to U.S. for Ukraine.  Japan is reportedly considering giving 155-mm artillery shells to the U.S. that it can then send to Ukraine.  The shells would be supplied under a 2016 ammunition-sharing pact between Washington and Tokyo to replenish U.S. stockpiles, which have been drawn from to supply Ukrainian forces.  It is unclear how many shells Japan may supply or when, and Japan’s Ministry of Defense said it has not made a final decision on whether it will send the shells at all.  Japan has so far only sent non-lethal military aid to Ukraine, in line with Japanese legislation restricting arms exports.  While the artillery-shells plan would not have Tokyo directly arm Ukraine, it would mark a significant shift for Japan, which has adhered to pacifist policies following World War Two.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Palau Seeking More U.S. Patrols to Deter Chinese Incursions.  Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. said his government has requested more U.S. patrols of its waters following recent incursions by Chinese vessels into the Pacific island nation’s exclusive economic zone.  Whipps Jr. said in addition to patrols, he would also approve a bigger U.S. military presence in Palau, including the stationing of troops with existing coast guard and civil action teams.  He said he is asking for military support to ensure Palau is “protected” amid escalating competition between the U.S. and China in the region.  Palau has previously hosted U.S. military drills and the U.S. is planning to install an over-the-horizon radar in the country by 2026.  Palau, along with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, also have decades-old strategic pacts with the U.S., called Compact of Free Association (COFA) accords, under which Washington is responsible for their defense and provides economic assistance in exchange for access to their waters.  Reuters

North Korea Fires Two Ballistic Missiles.  South Korea’s military reports that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles off its east coast on Thursday.  Japan’s defense ministry said the missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.  The launches occurred hours after North Korea said it would sternly respond to joint live-fire exercises between several thousand South Korean and U.S. troops earlier in the day.  The launches also came as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in Tokyo.  The White House said the three national security advisors discussed North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and trilateral cooperation in the East China and South China Seas.  Reuters

Bill Gates in China, Set to Meet With Xi.  Microsoft’s co-founder Bill Gates is reportedly meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday during his visit to China.  The meeting will be Xi’s first with a foreign CEO in years, and sources say it may be a one-one meeting.  The last reported meeting between Xi and Gates was in 2015 on the sidelines of the Boao forum in Hainan province.  Gates said he arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, adding that his visit to China, which is his first since 2019, will focus on global health and development work being done by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.  Gates’ visit comes ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China later this week.  CNBC Reuters

U.S. Pushing India to Finalize Drone Purchase.  The U.S. is seeking to overcome bureaucratic backlogs to finalize a deal for India to purchase as many as 30 MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics.  India has been interested in the drones, but has so far failed to produce proper documents to advance the deal, which could be worth as much as $3 Billion.  Other issues include India’s desire for some of the drone components to be domestically manufactured, as well as the fact that it has not decided how many drones it wants to purchase.  U.S. officials will reportedly use Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Washington to advance the deal.  U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also expected to raise the issue during his ongoing trip to New Delhi.  Reuters

Indonesia Buys Used Fighter Jets from Qatar for $800 Million.  Indonesia has purchased nine single-seat and three double-seat Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from Qatar for 733 million euros ($792 million). This deal is part of Indonesia’s efforts to replace its aging air fleet; Indonesia secured a deal with France for 42 Rafale jets worth $8.1 billion back in February and is planning another purchase with the US for F-15 fighter jets.  Reuters

Australia Moves to Cancel Lease for New Russian Embassy.  Australia is set to pass legislation to terminate Russia’s lease for a site to build a new embassy in Canberra.  Australian officials say the location of the proposed new embassy poses national security risks as it is directly adjacent to Australia's parliament house.  Russia bought the lease for the site in 2008 and had plans for the new embassy approved in 2011, but construction remains only partially complete, according to Australian media.  The cancellation of the lease will not impact the existing Russian embassy.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Xi Reiterates China’s Support for Israel-Palestine Peace Talks.  Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday met with his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas, calling the latter’s state visit to China this week.  Xi reiterated China’s willingness to encourage peace talks between Israel and Palestine and criticized the U.S. for its failure in efforts to do so.  And Xi proposed a three-part plan for a two-state solution, which largely seemed similar to a previous 2013 proposal that did not achieve any breakthroughs.  Xi added that China will support Palestine becoming a full member at the UN and other multilateral organizations.  Abbas’s visit to China comes amid Beijing’s push to expand its presence in the Middle East.  Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters 

Germany Approves Advance Payments for Israel's Arrow-3 Missile System.  Germany on Wednesday released payments of up to 560 million euros to Israel in advance of the planned purchase of the Israeli-built Arrow-3 missile defense system for $4.3 billion.  Israel’s Arrow-3’s system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside of the earth’s atmosphere.  Germany is seeking to purchase the system to achieve a higher layer of air defense.  Germany is seeking to finalize the deal for the system with Israel by the end of the year.  If the deal goes through, the German air force is expected to acquire Arrow-3 by 2025.  Reuters 

Israel Developing Hypersonic Missile Interceptor.  Israeli state-owned defense contractor Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd announced on Wednesday that it is developing the SkySonic interceptor, a new system designed to intercept hypersonic missiles.  The announcement of the new system comes days after Iran said it has built its first hypersonic missile.  Rafael said it has briefed the Pentagon on the SkySonic.  The company also said it will unveil the system at the Paris Air Show next week, though it did not say when Israel’s military might deploy SkySonic.  Reuters

Lebanon's Presidential Vote Collapses.  Lebanon’s parliament failed to elect a new president after Hezbollah and its allies rejected their rivals’ candidate.  In the first round of votes, neither Hezbollah’s candidate or IMF official Jihad Azour, who was backed by Christian factions and Hezbollah’s own ally, Gebran Bassil, received the backing of 86 of 128 lawmakers needed to win.  Hezbollah then withdrew from the session, denying the parliament a two-thirds quorum needed to hold a second vote in which 65 votes would be needed to win.  Without a president and with continued sectarian divisions, Lebanon is set to fall further into political instability and possible collapse.  Reuters

Turkish Forces ‘Neutralize’ 53 Kurdish Militants.  Turkey’s Defense Ministry reported Wednesday that its military had “neutralized” 53 Kurdish militants in their hideouts in the Manbij and Tal Rifaat regions of northern Syria, employing drones and ground artillery strikes in retaliation for an alleged attack on a police station along the Turkish border this weekend. The term “neutralized” typically suggests killed or injured. In the past, Turkey has forayed into Syria and launched attacks against the Kurdish YPG militia, which the country recognizes as a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey classifies the PKK as a terrorist group. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the decades-old insurgency started by the PKK against the Turkish state in 1984.  Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan War Expands Into Western Cities.  Sudan’s conflict in Khartoum and other surrounding cities between the army and the Rapid Support Forces has begun to expand into western urban areas, resulting in the death of a regional governor and spreading the humanitarian emergency to large cities in the Darfur and Kordofan regions.  Khamis Abbakar, West Darfur state governor, was killed Wednesday hours after he accused the paramilitary forces of “genocide” and urged international intervention, as "civilians are being killed randomly and in large numbers.” Though the details of his death are unclear, government sources claim the RSF is to blame. The expansion of the conflict also draws the risk of pulling armed tribal groups into the violence, which would increase the duration and severity of Sudan’s nearly two-month-old war. According to a small group surveilling the violence, artillery struck civilian homes and infrastructure in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, following complaints from RSF soldiers that they had not been paid. The capital of Central Darfur, Zalingei, was also under siege, and in El Obeid, civilians were caught in the crossfire between the RSF and the army.  Reuters 

Eight Kenyan Police Officers Killed in Suspected al-Shabaab Vehicle Bombing.  Eight police officers in Kenya’s eastern Garissa county were killed Tuesday when their vehicle was hit by an explosive device in a suspected assault by the Somalia-based and al-Qaeda linked militant group al-Shabaab.  For more than 15 years, the rebel group al-Shabaab has been in conflict with Mogadishu’s government.  John Otieno, North Eastern Regional Commissioner, said they “suspect the work of al-Shabaab who are now targeting security forces and passenger vehicles.” The bombing comes only days after Ethiopia said it thwarted a suicide assault by al-Shabaab in Dollo, a border town in the country’s southeast. In 2011, Kenya first deployed troops into Somalia to counter the group, and today contributes many soldiers to an African Union (AU) military organization against al-Shabab. Despite assistance from the 22,000-strong AU group, the struggle in Somalia rages on, and hundreds of Kenyans have been killed in attacks at the hands of the group.  Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

EU Parliament Amendments to Draft AI Act Include Surveillance Tech Ban.  The European Parliament approved amendments to the draft AI Act that include a ban on AI-enabled biometric surveillance technology and a requirement that generative AI systems flag content created by the technology.  The European legislators also agreed to require companies using generative AI to identify copyrighted material used in language training databases.  Companies also will be required to conduct “rights impact” and environmental evaluations on applications deemed to be “high risk.”  Parliamentary approval is a key step as the draft AI bill moves forward to negotiations with member states of the European Council.  Final adoption of the AI Act is expected by the end of this year, with a “grace period” of about two years for companies and organizations to adapt to follow.  Microsoft and IBM representatives said the companies welcome the parliamentary action.  A Microsoft spokesperson said, "we believe that AI requires legislative guardrails, alignment efforts at an international level, and meaningful voluntary actions by companies that develop and deploy AI."  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post  

U.S. Blacklists Chinese Firms Reselling Technology for Military Hypersonics Research.  The U.S. Commerce Department has blacklisted more than 30 Chinese companies involved in providing technology to China’s military programs, including development of hypersonic weapons.  Technology “resellers” were among the firms targeted, including two that provided aerodynamics technology to Chinese research universities developing hypersonic technology.  Another Chinese firm helped the sale of advanced optics technology produced in the U.S. to the China Air-to-Air Missile Research Institute.  The Commerce Department notice announcing the blacklisting cited the companies’ “demonstrable ties to activities of concern,” which included hypersonic, air-to-air missile, and weapons life-cycle management technologies.  The 30 Chinese firms join a number of other foreign entities added to the Commerce Department blacklist this week, including five from the United Arab Emirates, four from Pakistan and three from South Africa.  Among these additional firms are several aviation concerns sanctioned for ties to Chinese military pilot training programs using Western and NATO resources.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reacted to the blacklisting declaring that “China will continue to do what is necessary to firmly safeguard the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.”  Washington Post

Meta, Microsoft Join Voluntary AI Group Creating Framework for ‘Synthetic Media.’  Meta and Microsoft have joined a group creating a framework for “responsible practices” in producing and distributing AI-generated media.  The Partnership on AI was founded in February by leading tech and media entities, including Adobe, OpenAI, TikTok, BBC, and the Canadian Broadcasting Company.  The group will meet later in June to discuss recommendations on technical, legal and social implications of AI, and to review case studies.  Nick Clegg, Meta’s global affairs president, expressed the company’s enthusiasm in joining the partnership, adding "we're optimistic about the developments in this space and about using this technology to bring more tools for creative expression to our community."  Regarding the group’s priorities, spokesperson Aimee Bataclan explained that the partnership’s recommendations are directed to media creators and distributors, and that the framework it is developing “go beyond disclosure [of AI use] — including an emphasis on responsible and harmful use cases for synthetic media, an emphasis on informed consent, and broader transparency."  Axios

EU Funds Huawei Role in Critical Technology Projects Despite Bans.  Notwithstanding bans by several European countries on use of Huawei communications technology in networks and systems, the EU’s “Horizon Europe'' innovation program is funding the Chinese firm’s participation in “cutting-edge research on next-generation communications systems.”  The Financial Times reports that Huawei participates in 11 projects under the Horizon program, providing infrastructure equipment and AI platforms for research into quantum sensing and autonomous driving technology.  A third of EU member states have taken steps to exclude “high-risk vendors” from 5G infrastructure build outs, and the European Commission recently raised the possibility that it may need to issue a blanket ban against high-risk group involvement in 5G projects if other EU governments do not tighten national rules.  A Commission statement read:  “The openness of the Horizon Europe work program to international cooperation is balanced with the need to safeguard EU interests in strategic areas, as well as with respecting international rules and fundamental EU values.”  Observers in the telecommunications industry have warned that Huawei’s participation could harm European data security.  John Strand, founder of a Denmark-based technology consultancy, said Huawei’s involvement was “like inviting someone you don’t trust to visit your secret offices. It could be risky for Europe’s security and EU’s plan to have self-autonomy.”  Financial Times

New Transportation Department Research Center Aims at Infrastructure ‘Moon Shot.’  The Transportation Department this week unveiled its Advanced Research Project Agency for Infrastructure (ARPA-I), an R&D center seeking to revolutionize significant portions of the nation’s infrastructure.  ARPA-I held an event on Tuesday to discuss how technology might drive breakthroughs in infrastructure related to climate change, road safety, clean energy, and the environment.  This could involve development of new types of building and construction materials that would extend the life of roads and bridges by an order of magnitude.  ARPA-I follows a “skunkworks” model – R&D centers that conduct leading-edge experiments and tests with major breakthroughs as their goal, often taking on projects too risky for the private sector.  Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told TheVerge that certain innovation projects are beyond the capabilities of even forward-looking companies or local governments.  Those horizon projects, Buttigieg said, “are the kinds of things I think we’d go after if we have research taking place at this exceptionally high altitude.”  ARPA-I was created as a result of the 2021 Infrastructure Bill with the mandate to prepare and protect the nation’s physical infrastructure against the challenges of climate change, energy evolutions, and technology disruptions.  ARPA-I received an initial budget of $3.2 million, but the administration’s 2024 budget request has asked for $19 million for the center’s funding of labs and research institutions that will advance its core program.  TheVerge

House Armed Service Committee Urges Fast-Paced DoD Quantum Pilot Project.  A budget proposal by a House Armed Services subcommittee seeks to launch a Pentagon pilot project that would generate quantum computing solutions capable of being deployed in two years or less. According to the subcommittee proposal for the 2024 NDAA, the DoD would gather its own experts along with those from a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) and private sector quantum firms to “develop and deploy demonstrations, proofs of concept, pilot programs, and other measures to address the challenges identified … using quantum and quantum-hybrid applications.”  Other goals of the project would be to deploy developed quantum solutions within 2 years, assess the usefulness of commercial quantum applications for war-fighting, and seek to strengthen relationships between DoD components and nontraditional defense contractors.  The legislative proposal would require the 3-year pilot project to begin by March 1, 2024, at which time the Pentagon would be required to identify the FFRDC and private-sector entities involved in the program, as well as plans for developing and operating it.  In a related development, the Secretary of Defense is requesting $75 million in fiscal 2024 for the Quantum Transition Acceleration initiative, which aims to to speed up the operationalization of quantum devices for military use and stabilize U.S. supply chains critical to developing emerging quantum technologies.  DefenseScoop

AMD Previews AI Processor Rival to Nvidia Models.  Advanced Micro Devices unveiled a line of AI processors designed to help data centers handle high volumes of AI traffic.  Sector analysts say AMD’s new product line is a strong challenge to Nvidia, which currently commands more than 80 percent of market share.  The new chips are expected to be in full production in the fourth quarter of 2023 .  The MI300X chip will feature an accelerator capable of speeding up processes for generative AI operations.  Amazon and Meta executives joined AMD CEO Lisa Su in making the announcement and talked about using the new AMD processors in their data centers.  In an interview with Reuters, Su explained the company’s strategy of attracting major cloud services companies by offering everything needed for systems capable of handling applications similar to ChatGPT while allowing customers to pick and choose among options.  Bloomberg CNBC Reuters

Chinese Researchers Achieve First Rendering of Brain Activity into Spoken Mandarin.  Chinese researchers report they have developed the first procedure capable of translating brain activity into spoken Mandarin.  Previous brain-computer interface devices have performed this task with brief phrases in English and Japanese, but this is the first application in Mandarin.  A research team combining scientists from Shanghai Medical College, Tianjin University, and Shanghai Tech University say the achievement could lead to the restoration of speech for patients suffering from communications disorders who speak tonal languages.  Team leader Wu Jinsong noted that researchers targeted specific speech-related areas of the brain with multiple algorithms working in tandem, and then integrated their outputs to produce tonal speech.  South China Morning Post

Estonia Investigating $100 Million Crypto Hack Potentially Linked to North Korea.  Estonian authorities are investigating a hack and cryptocurrency theft from the Estonian mobile crypto wallet service Atomic Wallet.  Cryptocurrency analytics firm Elliptic said Atomic Wallet users lost over $100 million worth of crypto in the theft and that the North Korean hacking group “Lazarus” may have been behind the attack.  It is still unclear what vulnerability was exploited to steal from Atomic Wallet.  Police in Kazakhstan are also reportedly investigating the matter.  CoinDesk Reuters

North Korean Hackers Create Fake Copy of South Korean Web Portal.  South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is warning that North Korean hackers have created a fake website that is nearly identical to the South Korean web portal Naver, which is the country’s most-used web portal and search engine.  NIS said hackers who created the fake website are using it to try and steal login credentials and personal information of South Korean users trying to use Naver.  The spy agency did not say how many people may have been tricked by the scheme, though it said that the fake portal shows that North Korean hacking efforts are “getting more elaborate.”  Both NIS and Naver are urging users to double check the domain address they are using when trying to access Naver to ensure they are not on the fake portal.  Reuters

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief

Report for Thursday, June 15, 2023

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Thursday, June 15, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Senator Blocks Hungary Arms Sale for Stalling Sweden NATO Membership Bid.  The top Republican on the U.S Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that he was blocking a $735 million arms sale to Hungary because they refused to approve Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Jim Risch, the senator, stated “"Given promises that were made to me and others last year that this vote would be done, and the fact that it is now June and still not done, I decided that the sale of new U.S. military equipment to Hungary will be on hold”. The Washington Post reported that the sale was to include 24 HIMARS rocket launcher batteries, and more than 100 rockets and pods, parts, and support. The Hungarian Defense Ministry contradicted the Washington Post’s report by releasing a statement saying that “during the previous government term, the government commissioner in charge of procurement requested information about HIMARS missile systems in a letter with a March 2022 deadline. There was no response from the U.S. side, therefore, the ministry considered the matter “closed”. Last year, Sweden applied to join NATO however, objections from Turkey and Hungary have delayed the bid and now Sweden hopes to join by a NATO summit next month.  Reuters Washington Post

Analysis: A Look at the $1 Billion in Revenue Still Flowing to Russia, from the US.  American nuclear companies are currently paying roughly $1 billion to Russia’s state-owned nuclear agency to buy enriched uranium for American nuclear reactors. The United States used to be a major player in the enriched Uranium market, however, due to historical factors and an initiative to promote Russia’s peaceful nuclear program following the Cold War, the United States has ceased enriching uranium entirely. Roughly one third of all enriched uranium utilized in the U.S. is imported from Russia, the majority of the other two thirds from Europe, and a small portion from a U.K-German owned group operating in the U.S. There also remains a vast, unfinished, enrichment facility in Ohio that is not operational. The Ohio enrichment company said that it could take more than a decade to produce enriched uranium at a level that rivals Rosatom, the Russian nuclear agency. It is also estimated that developing a new enriched uranium supply chain would take several years and a significant amount of government funding. Sen. Joe Manchin III, Chairman of the Senate Energy Committee and sponsor of a bill to rebuild American enrichment capacity remarked that “we cannot be held hostage by nations that don’t have our values, but that’s what happened”. Reliance on Russian uranium leaves nuclear plants vulnerable to a Russian shutdown of enriched uranium sales, a conceivable strategy for Vladimir Putin who has a history of using energy as a diplomatic tool. Yet, despite the war, the United States has made minimal steps to shield itself from this vulnerability. James Krellenstein, the director of GHS Climate, a clean energy consulting firm stated ““It’s inexplicable that over a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration does not appear to have a plan to end this dependence, we could eliminate almost all of America’s dependence on Russian enrichment by finishing the centrifuge plant in Ohio”. These supply chain challenges pose significant strategic difficulties for the United States as it continues to make lofty clean energy goals in the wake of climate change.  The New York Times

U.S. Quietly Engaging With Iran to De Escalate Tensions.  The Biden administration has reportedly restarted talks with Iran to secure the release of Americans detained by Iran and curb the country’s nuclear program.  Sources say the talks began between top U.S. and Iranian officials in New York in December and that White House officials are now making regular visits to Oman for further indirect contacts.  In return for the prisoner exchange and nuclear limits, Iran is reportedly seeking sanctions relief to access frozen Iranian energy revenues, namely $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea and billions more held in Iraq for gas and oil deliveries.  There may have been movement on the Iraqi payments, as sources say that Washington recently approved a 2.5 million euro payment by Iraq to Iran for energy imports.  The reported engagement and apparent progress in talks comes as Washington seeks de-escalation with Tehran.  Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing Confirmed.  Both US and Chinese officials have confirmed Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Beijing next week after a phone call with Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Despite heightened tensions following the spy balloon incident and other sources of friction between China and the US, the visit by a US Secretary of State will be the first in five years. The White House’s national security coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, Kurt Campbell, stated that the two sides have agreed to the visit after several discussions between US and Chinese counterparts. South China Morning Post U.S. Department of State

Western Europe

Turkey’s Erdogan Still Holding Out on Sweden NATO Membership.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Ankara is still not prepared to back Sweden’s application to join NATO, saying that recent anti-Turkish protests by “terrorists” in Stockholm have shown that Sweden has not addressed Turkish security concerns.  Erdogan’s comments referred to recent anti-Turkey and anti-NATO demonstrations in the Swedish capital, during which the flag of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group — which Turkey, and the EU and the US, view as a terrorist organization — was projected on Sweden’s parliament building.  Erdogan has said the Swedish police should stop such protests if Sweden wants Turkey’s approval for its NATO membership.  Turkey, Sweden, Finland and NATO met in Ankara on Wednesday to discuss Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  Stockholm says talks have been good and will continue, though no set date for further discussions has been set.  Al Jazeera Reuters

NATO Chief Urges Common Standards for Defense Production.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said the alliance must set common standards for weapons and military equipment.  He asserted that such standardization is needed to increase defense production to replenish Western military stockpiles and further support Ukraine.  To achieve this, Stoltenberg announced a Defense Production Action Plan to "rapidly address shortfalls in our stocks" and boost interoperability of weapons.  While NATO has some standardization for rounds fired by small arms, munitions like artillery shells are less standardized.  Reuters 

France’s Macron, Saudi Arabia’s MbS to Discuss Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron is set to meet with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in France on Friday. Crown prince bin Salman has already expressed his willingness to mediate in Russia’s war in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia in May. Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

U.S. & NATO Allies Work to Craft Long Term Security Guarantees for Ukraine.  The Biden administration is working with Britain, Germany, and France in formalizing military and economic aid to Ukraine. These four countries are offering to continue the same amount of aid for an indefinite amount of time, but US lawmakers and European allies are not convinced that this is a feasible long-term solution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already asked for a timetable for Ukraine’s membership into NATO to be presented by next month’s summit in Vilnius.  Alliance members agree that Ukraine cannot join NATO while it is actively fighting Russia, but NATO countries are reportedly close to agreeing on how to strengthen its partnership with Kyiv to include a structure for long-term security guarantees and greater standardization of Ukraine’s military with NATO standards.  Simultaneously, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committees, suggested elevating the NATO-Ukraine Commission to a Council, giving Kyiv the authority to call for alliance meetings at any time.  U.S. Senator Chris Coons from Delaware has also recommended that the U.S. refer to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, an agreement that already provides Ukraine with NATO security guarantees following Ukraine’s decision to give up its nuclear weapons.  Politico  Reuters

Poland Reportedly Seeking NATO Chief from Alliance’s Eastern Flank.  Poland is reportedly pushing for the successor to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to come from the alliance’s eastern flank.  European officials say that Poland believes having Stoltenberg’s successor be from a country that was part of the Soviet Union would send a strong message that the alliance stands firm against Russian aggression.  Officials add that Poland has specific concerns with top candidate Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen for next NATO leader, raising issue with Denmark’s failure to meet defense-spending targets and the prospect of another Scandinavian NATO chief.  Poland, and other eastern flank countries, have reportedly suggested Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as an alternative to Frederiksen, though several Western member states have said they worry naming a secretary-general from the eastern flank will be too provocative towards Moscow.  Whomever is selected for the post must be approved by all 31 NATO member states.  Wall Street Journal

Analysis: Ukraine Counteroffensive Takes Shape but Main Test Still To Come.  After a week of fighting, the real test for Ukraine’s military lies ahead. Last week, Ukraine struck in two areas in the southeast of the country and reported the recapture of seven villages. Despite these early victories, the Ukrainian military has reportedly taken heavy losses including western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research institute has stated that “on both sides, a lot of it’s going to come down to attrition, the risk for them (the Ukrainians) is that before they get into that (Russian) defensive lines, they take too much attrition and it’ll be too tough to breach it and exploit it”. Russia has prepared numerous defensive positions consisting of minefields, anti-tank ditches, ‘dragon’s teeth’ barricades, and trenches. Utilizing satellite imagery, Reuters noted that these positions are heavily concentrated in the strategically important south of the country. According to Lee, Moscow’s strategy aims to maximize Ukrainian casualties before Kyiv can reach the main Russian defensive lines about 10-15 km away. Ukraine has been preparing the counteroffensive for at least six months and has created 12 armored brigades for the operation. Nine of these brigades have been trained and equipped by the West. Konrad Muzka, a military analyst in Poland said that only three of the 12 brigades had been seen in combat in the southeast so far. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that troops have advanced up to 6.5 km and seized 90 square km of territory along a 100 km section of the southeastern front line. The counteroffensive has been complicated by a lack of air superiority for Ukraine. Kyiv has also imposed an information blackout in order to maintain operational security making assessments of the situation very difficult.  Reuters

Russian Parliament Moves to Allow Military Recruitment of Criminals.  The lower house of Russia’s parliament on Wednesday voted in favor of legislation that will allow suspected and convicted criminals to sign contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry to fight in Ukraine.  Contracts would be available to those being investigated for committing a crime or those who have been convicted and have not started their sentences.  Contracts will not be available for those convicted of sexual crimes, treason or terrorism.  Those who sign up will be exempt from criminal liability after they fulfill their contract or if they are awarded for their military service.  Russia’s Wagner Group has previously recruited criminals, but said it stopped doing so in February.  Prison rights groups say the Russian defense ministry wants to take over this kind of recruitment with some changes.  Reuters

Serbia Arrests Three Kosovo Police Officers.  Serbian forces arrested three Kosovo police officers on Wednesday, though both sides say the arrests happened on their side of the border, accusing each other of illegally crossing into the other’s territory.  Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said the arrests occurred 300 meters inside Kosovan territory, while Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the arrests occurred as far as 1.8 kilometers (1 mile) within Serbia.  Vucic added that Serbia is willing to have an international inquiry investigate the arrests and move back some of its troops stationed on the border with Kosovo to de-escalate tensions.  Kosovo has banned vehicles with Serbian license plates from entering Kosovo territory in response to the arrests.  Separately, the EU on Wednesday approved measures against Kurti’s government, such as the suspension of high-level visits and financial cooperation with Kosovo, for failing to take steps to de-escalate tensions with Serbia.  Reuters 

Asia

Japan Considering Giving Artillery Shells to U.S. for Ukraine.  Japan is reportedly considering giving 155-mm artillery shells to the U.S. that it can then send to Ukraine.  The shells would be supplied under a 2016 ammunition-sharing pact between Washington and Tokyo to replenish U.S. stockpiles, which have been drawn from to supply Ukrainian forces.  It is unclear how many shells Japan may supply or when, and Japan’s Ministry of Defense said it has not made a final decision on whether it will send the shells at all.  Japan has so far only sent non-lethal military aid to Ukraine, in line with Japanese legislation restricting arms exports.  While the artillery-shells plan would not have Tokyo directly arm Ukraine, it would mark a significant shift for Japan, which has adhered to pacifist policies following World War Two.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Palau Seeking More U.S. Patrols to Deter Chinese Incursions.  Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. said his government has requested more U.S. patrols of its waters following recent incursions by Chinese vessels into the Pacific island nation’s exclusive economic zone.  Whipps Jr. said in addition to patrols, he would also approve a bigger U.S. military presence in Palau, including the stationing of troops with existing coast guard and civil action teams.  He said he is asking for military support to ensure Palau is “protected” amid escalating competition between the U.S. and China in the region.  Palau has previously hosted U.S. military drills and the U.S. is planning to install an over-the-horizon radar in the country by 2026.  Palau, along with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, also have decades-old strategic pacts with the U.S., called Compact of Free Association (COFA) accords, under which Washington is responsible for their defense and provides economic assistance in exchange for access to their waters.  Reuters

North Korea Fires Two Ballistic Missiles.  South Korea’s military reports that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles off its east coast on Thursday.  Japan’s defense ministry said the missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.  The launches occurred hours after North Korea said it would sternly respond to joint live-fire exercises between several thousand South Korean and U.S. troops earlier in the day.  The launches also came as U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in Tokyo.  The White House said the three national security advisors discussed North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and trilateral cooperation in the East China and South China Seas.  Reuters

Bill Gates in China, Set to Meet With Xi.  Microsoft’s co-founder Bill Gates is reportedly meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday during his visit to China.  The meeting will be Xi’s first with a foreign CEO in years, and sources say it may be a one-one meeting.  The last reported meeting between Xi and Gates was in 2015 on the sidelines of the Boao forum in Hainan province.  Gates said he arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, adding that his visit to China, which is his first since 2019, will focus on global health and development work being done by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.  Gates’ visit comes ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China later this week.  CNBC Reuters

U.S. Pushing India to Finalize Drone Purchase.  The U.S. is seeking to overcome bureaucratic backlogs to finalize a deal for India to purchase as many as 30 MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics.  India has been interested in the drones, but has so far failed to produce proper documents to advance the deal, which could be worth as much as $3 Billion.  Other issues include India’s desire for some of the drone components to be domestically manufactured, as well as the fact that it has not decided how many drones it wants to purchase.  U.S. officials will reportedly use Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Washington to advance the deal.  U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is also expected to raise the issue during his ongoing trip to New Delhi.  Reuters

Indonesia Buys Used Fighter Jets from Qatar for $800 Million.  Indonesia has purchased nine single-seat and three double-seat Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from Qatar for 733 million euros ($792 million). This deal is part of Indonesia’s efforts to replace its aging air fleet; Indonesia secured a deal with France for 42 Rafale jets worth $8.1 billion back in February and is planning another purchase with the US for F-15 fighter jets.  Reuters

Australia Moves to Cancel Lease for New Russian Embassy.  Australia is set to pass legislation to terminate Russia’s lease for a site to build a new embassy in Canberra.  Australian officials say the location of the proposed new embassy poses national security risks as it is directly adjacent to Australia's parliament house.  Russia bought the lease for the site in 2008 and had plans for the new embassy approved in 2011, but construction remains only partially complete, according to Australian media.  The cancellation of the lease will not impact the existing Russian embassy.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Xi Reiterates China’s Support for Israel-Palestine Peace Talks.  Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday met with his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas, calling the latter’s state visit to China this week.  Xi reiterated China’s willingness to encourage peace talks between Israel and Palestine and criticized the U.S. for its failure in efforts to do so.  And Xi proposed a three-part plan for a two-state solution, which largely seemed similar to a previous 2013 proposal that did not achieve any breakthroughs.  Xi added that China will support Palestine becoming a full member at the UN and other multilateral organizations.  Abbas’s visit to China comes amid Beijing’s push to expand its presence in the Middle East.  Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters 

Germany Approves Advance Payments for Israel's Arrow-3 Missile System.  Germany on Wednesday released payments of up to 560 million euros to Israel in advance of the planned purchase of the Israeli-built Arrow-3 missile defense system for $4.3 billion.  Israel’s Arrow-3’s system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside of the earth’s atmosphere.  Germany is seeking to purchase the system to achieve a higher layer of air defense.  Germany is seeking to finalize the deal for the system with Israel by the end of the year.  If the deal goes through, the German air force is expected to acquire Arrow-3 by 2025.  Reuters 

Israel Developing Hypersonic Missile Interceptor.  Israeli state-owned defense contractor Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd announced on Wednesday that it is developing the SkySonic interceptor, a new system designed to intercept hypersonic missiles.  The announcement of the new system comes days after Iran said it has built its first hypersonic missile.  Rafael said it has briefed the Pentagon on the SkySonic.  The company also said it will unveil the system at the Paris Air Show next week, though it did not say when Israel’s military might deploy SkySonic.  Reuters

Lebanon's Presidential Vote Collapses.  Lebanon’s parliament failed to elect a new president after Hezbollah and its allies rejected their rivals’ candidate.  In the first round of votes, neither Hezbollah’s candidate or IMF official Jihad Azour, who was backed by Christian factions and Hezbollah’s own ally, Gebran Bassil, received the backing of 86 of 128 lawmakers needed to win.  Hezbollah then withdrew from the session, denying the parliament a two-thirds quorum needed to hold a second vote in which 65 votes would be needed to win.  Without a president and with continued sectarian divisions, Lebanon is set to fall further into political instability and possible collapse.  Reuters

Turkish Forces ‘Neutralize’ 53 Kurdish Militants.  Turkey’s Defense Ministry reported Wednesday that its military had “neutralized” 53 Kurdish militants in their hideouts in the Manbij and Tal Rifaat regions of northern Syria, employing drones and ground artillery strikes in retaliation for an alleged attack on a police station along the Turkish border this weekend. The term “neutralized” typically suggests killed or injured. In the past, Turkey has forayed into Syria and launched attacks against the Kurdish YPG militia, which the country recognizes as a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey classifies the PKK as a terrorist group. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the decades-old insurgency started by the PKK against the Turkish state in 1984.  Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan War Expands Into Western Cities.  Sudan’s conflict in Khartoum and other surrounding cities between the army and the Rapid Support Forces has begun to expand into western urban areas, resulting in the death of a regional governor and spreading the humanitarian emergency to large cities in the Darfur and Kordofan regions.  Khamis Abbakar, West Darfur state governor, was killed Wednesday hours after he accused the paramilitary forces of “genocide” and urged international intervention, as "civilians are being killed randomly and in large numbers.” Though the details of his death are unclear, government sources claim the RSF is to blame. The expansion of the conflict also draws the risk of pulling armed tribal groups into the violence, which would increase the duration and severity of Sudan’s nearly two-month-old war. According to a small group surveilling the violence, artillery struck civilian homes and infrastructure in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, following complaints from RSF soldiers that they had not been paid. The capital of Central Darfur, Zalingei, was also under siege, and in El Obeid, civilians were caught in the crossfire between the RSF and the army.  Reuters 

Eight Kenyan Police Officers Killed in Suspected al-Shabaab Vehicle Bombing.  Eight police officers in Kenya’s eastern Garissa county were killed Tuesday when their vehicle was hit by an explosive device in a suspected assault by the Somalia-based and al-Qaeda linked militant group al-Shabaab.  For more than 15 years, the rebel group al-Shabaab has been in conflict with Mogadishu’s government.  John Otieno, North Eastern Regional Commissioner, said they “suspect the work of al-Shabaab who are now targeting security forces and passenger vehicles.” The bombing comes only days after Ethiopia said it thwarted a suicide assault by al-Shabaab in Dollo, a border town in the country’s southeast. In 2011, Kenya first deployed troops into Somalia to counter the group, and today contributes many soldiers to an African Union (AU) military organization against al-Shabab. Despite assistance from the 22,000-strong AU group, the struggle in Somalia rages on, and hundreds of Kenyans have been killed in attacks at the hands of the group.  Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

EU Parliament Amendments to Draft AI Act Include Surveillance Tech Ban.  The European Parliament approved amendments to the draft AI Act that include a ban on AI-enabled biometric surveillance technology and a requirement that generative AI systems flag content created by the technology.  The European legislators also agreed to require companies using generative AI to identify copyrighted material used in language training databases.  Companies also will be required to conduct “rights impact” and environmental evaluations on applications deemed to be “high risk.”  Parliamentary approval is a key step as the draft AI bill moves forward to negotiations with member states of the European Council.  Final adoption of the AI Act is expected by the end of this year, with a “grace period” of about two years for companies and organizations to adapt to follow.  Microsoft and IBM representatives said the companies welcome the parliamentary action.  A Microsoft spokesperson said, "we believe that AI requires legislative guardrails, alignment efforts at an international level, and meaningful voluntary actions by companies that develop and deploy AI."  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post  

U.S. Blacklists Chinese Firms Reselling Technology for Military Hypersonics Research.  The U.S. Commerce Department has blacklisted more than 30 Chinese companies involved in providing technology to China’s military programs, including development of hypersonic weapons.  Technology “resellers” were among the firms targeted, including two that provided aerodynamics technology to Chinese research universities developing hypersonic technology.  Another Chinese firm helped the sale of advanced optics technology produced in the U.S. to the China Air-to-Air Missile Research Institute.  The Commerce Department notice announcing the blacklisting cited the companies’ “demonstrable ties to activities of concern,” which included hypersonic, air-to-air missile, and weapons life-cycle management technologies.  The 30 Chinese firms join a number of other foreign entities added to the Commerce Department blacklist this week, including five from the United Arab Emirates, four from Pakistan and three from South Africa.  Among these additional firms are several aviation concerns sanctioned for ties to Chinese military pilot training programs using Western and NATO resources.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reacted to the blacklisting declaring that “China will continue to do what is necessary to firmly safeguard the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.”  Washington Post

Meta, Microsoft Join Voluntary AI Group Creating Framework for ‘Synthetic Media.’  Meta and Microsoft have joined a group creating a framework for “responsible practices” in producing and distributing AI-generated media.  The Partnership on AI was founded in February by leading tech and media entities, including Adobe, OpenAI, TikTok, BBC, and the Canadian Broadcasting Company.  The group will meet later in June to discuss recommendations on technical, legal and social implications of AI, and to review case studies.  Nick Clegg, Meta’s global affairs president, expressed the company’s enthusiasm in joining the partnership, adding "we're optimistic about the developments in this space and about using this technology to bring more tools for creative expression to our community."  Regarding the group’s priorities, spokesperson Aimee Bataclan explained that the partnership’s recommendations are directed to media creators and distributors, and that the framework it is developing “go beyond disclosure [of AI use] — including an emphasis on responsible and harmful use cases for synthetic media, an emphasis on informed consent, and broader transparency."  Axios

EU Funds Huawei Role in Critical Technology Projects Despite Bans.  Notwithstanding bans by several European countries on use of Huawei communications technology in networks and systems, the EU’s “Horizon Europe'' innovation program is funding the Chinese firm’s participation in “cutting-edge research on next-generation communications systems.”  The Financial Times reports that Huawei participates in 11 projects under the Horizon program, providing infrastructure equipment and AI platforms for research into quantum sensing and autonomous driving technology.  A third of EU member states have taken steps to exclude “high-risk vendors” from 5G infrastructure build outs, and the European Commission recently raised the possibility that it may need to issue a blanket ban against high-risk group involvement in 5G projects if other EU governments do not tighten national rules.  A Commission statement read:  “The openness of the Horizon Europe work program to international cooperation is balanced with the need to safeguard EU interests in strategic areas, as well as with respecting international rules and fundamental EU values.”  Observers in the telecommunications industry have warned that Huawei’s participation could harm European data security.  John Strand, founder of a Denmark-based technology consultancy, said Huawei’s involvement was “like inviting someone you don’t trust to visit your secret offices. It could be risky for Europe’s security and EU’s plan to have self-autonomy.”  Financial Times

New Transportation Department Research Center Aims at Infrastructure ‘Moon Shot.’  The Transportation Department this week unveiled its Advanced Research Project Agency for Infrastructure (ARPA-I), an R&D center seeking to revolutionize significant portions of the nation’s infrastructure.  ARPA-I held an event on Tuesday to discuss how technology might drive breakthroughs in infrastructure related to climate change, road safety, clean energy, and the environment.  This could involve development of new types of building and construction materials that would extend the life of roads and bridges by an order of magnitude.  ARPA-I follows a “skunkworks” model – R&D centers that conduct leading-edge experiments and tests with major breakthroughs as their goal, often taking on projects too risky for the private sector.  Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told TheVerge that certain innovation projects are beyond the capabilities of even forward-looking companies or local governments.  Those horizon projects, Buttigieg said, “are the kinds of things I think we’d go after if we have research taking place at this exceptionally high altitude.”  ARPA-I was created as a result of the 2021 Infrastructure Bill with the mandate to prepare and protect the nation’s physical infrastructure against the challenges of climate change, energy evolutions, and technology disruptions.  ARPA-I received an initial budget of $3.2 million, but the administration’s 2024 budget request has asked for $19 million for the center’s funding of labs and research institutions that will advance its core program.  TheVerge

House Armed Service Committee Urges Fast-Paced DoD Quantum Pilot Project.  A budget proposal by a House Armed Services subcommittee seeks to launch a Pentagon pilot project that would generate quantum computing solutions capable of being deployed in two years or less. According to the subcommittee proposal for the 2024 NDAA, the DoD would gather its own experts along with those from a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) and private sector quantum firms to “develop and deploy demonstrations, proofs of concept, pilot programs, and other measures to address the challenges identified … using quantum and quantum-hybrid applications.”  Other goals of the project would be to deploy developed quantum solutions within 2 years, assess the usefulness of commercial quantum applications for war-fighting, and seek to strengthen relationships between DoD components and nontraditional defense contractors.  The legislative proposal would require the 3-year pilot project to begin by March 1, 2024, at which time the Pentagon would be required to identify the FFRDC and private-sector entities involved in the program, as well as plans for developing and operating it.  In a related development, the Secretary of Defense is requesting $75 million in fiscal 2024 for the Quantum Transition Acceleration initiative, which aims to to speed up the operationalization of quantum devices for military use and stabilize U.S. supply chains critical to developing emerging quantum technologies.  DefenseScoop

AMD Previews AI Processor Rival to Nvidia Models.  Advanced Micro Devices unveiled a line of AI processors designed to help data centers handle high volumes of AI traffic.  Sector analysts say AMD’s new product line is a strong challenge to Nvidia, which currently commands more than 80 percent of market share.  The new chips are expected to be in full production in the fourth quarter of 2023 .  The MI300X chip will feature an accelerator capable of speeding up processes for generative AI operations.  Amazon and Meta executives joined AMD CEO Lisa Su in making the announcement and talked about using the new AMD processors in their data centers.  In an interview with Reuters, Su explained the company’s strategy of attracting major cloud services companies by offering everything needed for systems capable of handling applications similar to ChatGPT while allowing customers to pick and choose among options.  Bloomberg CNBC Reuters

Chinese Researchers Achieve First Rendering of Brain Activity into Spoken Mandarin.  Chinese researchers report they have developed the first procedure capable of translating brain activity into spoken Mandarin.  Previous brain-computer interface devices have performed this task with brief phrases in English and Japanese, but this is the first application in Mandarin.  A research team combining scientists from Shanghai Medical College, Tianjin University, and Shanghai Tech University say the achievement could lead to the restoration of speech for patients suffering from communications disorders who speak tonal languages.  Team leader Wu Jinsong noted that researchers targeted specific speech-related areas of the brain with multiple algorithms working in tandem, and then integrated their outputs to produce tonal speech.  South China Morning Post

Estonia Investigating $100 Million Crypto Hack Potentially Linked to North Korea.  Estonian authorities are investigating a hack and cryptocurrency theft from the Estonian mobile crypto wallet service Atomic Wallet.  Cryptocurrency analytics firm Elliptic said Atomic Wallet users lost over $100 million worth of crypto in the theft and that the North Korean hacking group “Lazarus” may have been behind the attack.  It is still unclear what vulnerability was exploited to steal from Atomic Wallet.  Police in Kazakhstan are also reportedly investigating the matter.  CoinDesk Reuters

North Korean Hackers Create Fake Copy of South Korean Web Portal.  South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is warning that North Korean hackers have created a fake website that is nearly identical to the South Korean web portal Naver, which is the country’s most-used web portal and search engine.  NIS said hackers who created the fake website are using it to try and steal login credentials and personal information of South Korean users trying to use Naver.  The spy agency did not say how many people may have been tricked by the scheme, though it said that the fake portal shows that North Korean hacking efforts are “getting more elaborate.”  Both NIS and Naver are urging users to double check the domain address they are using when trying to access Naver to ensure they are not on the fake portal.  Reuters

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