Report for Thursday, July 25, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY’S REPORT

Netanyahu addresses joint session of Congress, Dems stay away in droves

Kyiv says China won't supply weapons to Russia, supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity

Biden makes national address, vows to try to 'stop Putin' in last 6 months of term

CrowdStrike cites validation tool failure for global software update outage

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Israel, the U.S. and the Politics of 2,000-Pound BombsThe Cipher Brief

Brazil and Colombia Should Support Democracy in VenezuelaThe Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Netanyahu says Jews still can’t pray on Temple Mount.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that a far-right cabinet minister was wrong to say Jews could now pray on the Temple Mount.  The topic is super-sensitive because the compound, in Jerusalem's walled Old City, holds Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam's third-holiest shrine, and also the Temple Mount, a vestige of two ancient temples revered in Judaism.  Under a long-standing arrangement with Muslim authorities, Israel allows Jews to visit but refrain from prayer. Suggestions that Israel would alter rules on religious observance there have led to violence.  On Wednesday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a pro-settler right-wing cabinet member, told parliament: "I am the political echelon, and the political echelon allows Jewish prayer at Temple Mount."  Reuters  

Netanyahu addresses joint session of Congress, Dems stay away in droves.  A defiant Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcefully defended Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, declaring on Capitol Hill that Israel will settle for “nothing less” than total victory over Hamas. Imploring Congress to hasten billions of dollars in U.S. weapons to Israel, he declared, "Fast-tracking U.S. military aid could dramatically expedite an end to the war in Gaza and help prevent a broader war in the Middle East.”  His plan for a post-war Gaza was as vague as ever and he spoke of a “vision” of a "demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza" led by Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel. He didn’t explain how he thought Gaza would get there.  In the past, Netanyahu has said Israel would not allow Hamas to return to power but would also not accept the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the occupied West Bank, as the governing body. As angry crowds chanted outside, he made no mention of the high civilian death toll in Gaza or a ceasefire deal pushed by President Joe Biden.  He mocked pro-Palestinian protesters as “idiots” and tools of Iran.  Netanyahu had only polite words for Biden, whose support of Israel has cost him politically, and fulsome praise for former president Donald Trump “for all he’s done for Israel.” Vice President Kamala Harris was notably absent.  Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Biden and Harris Thursday, and with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday. AP  NY Times Al Jazeera Washington Post  Reuters

Israel launches more raids deep in Gaza.  Israeli forces carried out new raids in Gaza, destroying neighborhoods in towns east of Khan Younis and forcing thousands of refugees trudging west to seek shelter. Palestinian medics said two Palestinians had been killed in an airstrike on Bani Suhaila, where Hamas said fighters had detonated a bomb against an Israeli army personnel carrier. The Israeli military said it had been operating in areas from which Hamas fired rockets into Israel and attacked Israeli troops.  Gaza health officials said Israeli military strikes in the past 24 hours had killed at least 55 people.  Reuters   Al Jazeera 

Hezbollah broadcasts drone video of Israel's Ramat David airbase.   Hezbollah showed off its aerial surveillance capabilities Wednesday by broadcasting a drone video of air defense facilities, planes and fuel storage units at Israel's Ramat David airbase,30 miles into Israeli territory. A spokesman for the Israeli military said in a statement on X that the video was filmed by a surveillance drone and the base's operations were not affected.   Reuters Reuters

Israeli delegation to Gaza ceasefire talks delayed until next week.  The Israeli team negotiating a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal delayed its departure from Thursday to next week, an Israeli official said Wednesday. The official said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden were going to discuss ways to advance the deal in their meeting in Washington, which takes place later today (Thursday).   Reuters

Israel Aerospace Industries building Arrow-3 long-range antimissile system for Germany.  Israel Aerospace Industries has increased shifts and hired more workers to meet the deadline for installing the new Arrow-3 long-range antimissile system at Holzdorf Air Base sometime next year, a company executive told Defense News.  Germany will be the first country besides Israel to use the system. Berlin approved the funding of roughly $4 billion in June 2023. Israeli forces have successfully used the long-range system to intercept ballistic missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Berlin wants to use Arrow-3 for NATO missile defense. The system has a range of nearly 1,500 miles, intercepting missiles at an altitude of up to about 62 miles), according to the German Ministry of Defense.  Defense News

Israel retrieves bodies of five hostages from Gaza.   On Wednesday, Israeli forces recovered the bodies of five hostages killed in Hamas' Oct. 7 attack and held in Gaza since, the Israeli military said.  Maya Goren, a 56-year-old kindergarten teacher, was killed during the attack on the Nir Oz kibbutz.  The other four hostages were two reserve soldiers, and two conscript soldiers killed in combat during the Oct. 7 attack, the military said. The bodies were found in Khan Younis as Israeli forces raided the area this week.  The five had been listed among 120 hostages still in Gaza, but about a third of those have been declared dead in absentia, based on forensic findings, intelligence, and other evidence.  Reuters

Australia sanctions Israeli settlers, youth group over West Bank violence against Palestinians.   Australia levied financial sanctions and travel bans Thursday on seven Israeli settlers and a youth group allegedly involved in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the unnamed youth group was responsible for inciting and perpetrating violence against Palestinians, and the settlers had been involved in beatings, sexual assault and torture and in some cases deaths.  The move by the Australian government comes after allies Britain, the United States, Canada and Japan sanctioned some Israeli settlers in response to the violence in the West Bank. Israel's embassy in Australia said the country condemned violence acts against Palestinian communities.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine: China won't supply weapons to Russia, supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that China will not provide weapons to Russia. His remarks came after talks between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Despite China's claims of neutrality, it has deepened economic ties with Russia and supplied dual-use goods. The U.S. accused Beijing of supporting Russia secretly and threatened more sanctions. Kyiv's appeals to Beijing for help ending the war have been largely unsuccessful. China proposed an alternative peace plan, while Kyiv remains ready to negotiate when Russia shows good faith. "China has unshakably reaffirmed its respect for the principle of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Kuleba said in a video post on Instagram. "My Chinese colleague clearly said that he agrees that we need not the illusion of peace, but a just and sustainable peace." The Chinese Foreign Ministry also acknowledged that "conditions and timing are not yet ripe" for ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but said it is "willing to play a constructive role" in peace efforts. Kyiv Independent  Kyiv Independent New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Kremlin says Ukraine's signal on talks appears to be in unison with Russia's position. The Kremlin stated that Ukraine's signal on talks aligns with Russia's position, but more details are needed. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed Kyiv's readiness for talks if Russia negotiates in good faith, though Ukraine hasn't seen this. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia has always been open to negotiations, but specifics are essential. Previous attempts at a ceasefire were rejected by the U.S. and Kyiv because Vladimir Putin demands that Ukraine abandon NATO ambitions and cede four provinces, which Kyiv rejects as surrender. Reuters

OPINION–The Right Way to Quickly End the War in Ukraine.  Jakub Grygiel argues that the U.S. should abandon its incremental approach to aiding Ukraine and instead provide a large and unrestricted infusion of military support to enable a decisive Ukrainian push against Russian forces. Grygiel criticizes President Joe Biden’s strategy as leading to a prolonged and unsustainable conflict, risking Ukraine’s collapse. He suggests that with sufficient artillery, armor, and airpower, Ukraine could force Russian troops back to pre-2022 lines, thereby achieving a sustainable victory. A decisive military breakthrough would pressure Russia into negotiations and help stabilize Europe, allowing the U.S. to focus on other global priorities. Foreign Affairs 

Ukraine’s mobilization effort gets boost as millions update draft data. Ukraine's mobilization effort saw a boost as around 3 million individuals updated their draft data via the Reserv+ app, following a new mobilization law. The effort resulted in a refreshed database of nearly 4.7 million people. Military experts, citing government sources, said this effort has already more than doubled the monthly recruitment rate to at least 30,000 people. However, Ukraine’s draft numbers have never been officially published because it is considered a state secret. An estimated 1.5 million of these registrants are eligible for mobilization, exceeding the projected need of 150,000 new recruits for 2024. Two estimates, one published by the Financial Times newspaper and another by Ukrainian publication Texty, put the number of military-aged men (between 18 and 60) at 10 million or more. According to KI Insights (KII), the Kyiv Independent’s in-house research and advisory unit, just under 5 million of these 10 million are eligible for mobilization, excluding disabled people, students, residents of Kremlin-occupied territories, and other groups unable to serve. Kyiv Independent 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 30 over past day.  Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed at least four civilians and injured 30, regional authorities reported on Thursday. Ukrainian air defenses downed 25 of 38 Russian drones targeting multiple oblasts. Notably, drones targeted the Izmail district in Odesa Oblast near the Romanian border. Kharkiv Oblast reported three deaths and 19 injuries, while Donetsk Oblast saw three injuries. Kherson Oblast suffered one death and six injuries. Other affected regions included Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Mykolaiv. Kyiv Independent
Ukraine destroys 25 of 38 drones in Russian attack, air force says.  Ukrainian forces destroyed 25 out of 38 Russian Shahed-131/136 attack drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Odesa region and central Ukraine. Three drones crossed into Romania, where fragments were found near Plauru. No infrastructure damage occurred in Romania. In Ukraine, drone debris injured two in Odesa's Izmail district and damaged 10 houses and an infrastructure facility in Zhytomyr. All drones targeting Kyiv were intercepted. In Kherson, a man was killed by a drone attack. Finnish F-18 jets monitored the situation in Romania as part of NATO's air policing.  Reuters 

Ukraine's 79th brigade says it repelled one of largest Russian attacks near Kurakhove. Ukraine's 79th Tavrian Air Assault Brigade reported repelling one of the largest Russian attacks in the Kurakhove sector on Wednesday. Russia's assault involved 57 armored vehicles, including 11 tanks and 200 assault vehicles, attacking from multiple directions. Ukrainian forces, using artillery and attack drones, halted the initial advance, destroying vehicles and causing heavy Russian casualties. The brigade reported 40 Russian soldiers killed and 37 injured. Despite Moscow's capture of Prohres village, Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian attempts to break through defenses towards Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Kyiv Independent 

Battle for Pokrovsk 'tense and difficult;' Russian losses 3 times higher. The situation in Pokrovsk is described as "tense and difficult," with Ukrainian forces holding their defense against Russian attempts to break through. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will build an ammunition factory in Ukraine, with production expected to start within 24 months. Russia suffers three times higher losses than Ukraine despite having more troops and equipment, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Kyiv Independent 

8 EU finance ministers: Russia lies about its economic strength, more sanctions needed. Eight European Union finance ministers from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, and the Baltic states stated that Russia's economy is weaker than it claims, showing signs of "re-Sovietization" with extensive market controls, heavy public spending from nationalized assets, and a war-focused economy. They warned of an overheating economy, stagnant private sector, and rising inflation, urging stronger sanctions and more military support for Ukraine. The ministers emphasized that increased Western pressure is needed as Russia uses uninsured oil tankers to circumvent sanctions and faces new restrictions on its LNG sector. Kyiv Independent 

Russia reportedly fortifies Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea. Russia is reinforcing the Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea, a crucial supply route for its military, with underwater barriers and additional barges following previous Ukrainian attacks. Witnesses reported seeing a floating construction crane in the Kerch Strait. Despite these reinforcements, Ukraine's Navy states the bridge is no longer vital for Russian military purposes, though it could be used for weapon supplies once restored. Traffic is regularly halted amid explosion and drone strike reports. Kyiv Independent 

Russia targets Kharkiv with cluster munitions in 'double tap' strike, police say. Russian forces on Wednesday used an Iskander missile armed with cluster munitions in a "double-tap" attack on an industrial facility in Kharkiv, injuring at least nine people and damaging a Swiss NGO office. The second strike targeted first responders who had just cleared the area. This tactic, known as "double-tap" strikes, has escalated recently, killing nearly 30 rescue workers in multiple regions. Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of using cluster munitions to target civilian areas, posing ongoing dangers due to unexploded bomblets. Attacks on Kharkiv have intensified following a new Russian offensive in May. Kyiv Independent 

Media: Special unit of GRU recruiting saboteurs through social media. A special unit of the Russian military intelligence service GRU recruits individuals through Telegram and TikTok for sabotage operations in Europe, the Dossier Center reported on Tuesday. Western intelligence officials have noted increasing Russian sabotage activities, including acts of antisemitism and anti-NATO protests. Arrests in Germany, Poland, and other countries have been made for suspected espionage and collaboration with Russian intelligence. Kyiv Independent 

Russia creates 12 propagandistic organizations to militarize children in occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russia has initiated 12 youth movements in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast to militarize Ukrainian children. Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, over 19,500 children have been abducted, with nearly 800 returned. Human Rights Watch highlights Russia’s violations of children's right to education, introducing its own system and military training. Ukrainian authorities are working to identify and charge those responsible, and the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for key Russian figures. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv uncovers suspected Russian agent network planning sabotage in Ukraine, Europe. Ukrainian law enforcement cracked down on a Russian-run network planning arson attacks in Ukraine and the EU, the Security Service of Ukraine announced on Thursday. The group of 19, based in several Ukrainian regions, targeted shopping centers and other public places on Russian intelligence orders. They intended to record the sabotage for Russian propaganda. Searches revealed falsified documents, weapons, and cash. The organizer and an accomplice face charge of treason and forgery, with efforts ongoing to apprehend others. Kyiv Independent 

Head of Russian military company, linked to disgraced ex-deputy minister, arrested on corruption charges. Andrei Belkov, head of a military construction company linked to Russia's Defense Ministry, was arrested on corruption charges for allegedly inflating equipment prices and pocketing the difference, totaling around 45 million rubles ($527,000), the state-controlled media outlet Kommersant reported on Wednesday. The charges are reportedly unrelated to his official role but may lead to further accusations. Belkov was supervised by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who is also under investigation for corruption and possibly treason. Ivanov was dismissed and sanctioned by Western countries. Kyiv Independent

Czech foreign minister: Ammunition initiative needs more donors, money. The Czech ammunition initiative, launched earlier this year, has secured funding for 500,000 shells for Ukraine, according to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky. The first 45,000 shells arrived in June, and 100,000 more are expected by summer's end. Eighteen countries have pledged support, with 15 fulfilling their promises. Lipavsky emphasized the need for more money and donors to continue the initiative next year. Czechia, the first to provide main battle tanks to Ukraine, maintains strategic reserves of Soviet-era weaponry while supporting Ukraine's right to strike deep inside Russia with Western weapons. Kyiv Independent 

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Wednesday, July 24, 2024. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said the Russian military has increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday to discuss the war in Ukraine and China's potential role in future negotiations. The Russian State Duma passed an amendment on Wednesday allowing commanders to punish soldiers for using personal communication devices on the frontline. The Georgian State Security Service reiterated Kremlin-aligned accusations against former Georgian opposition figures and Ukrainian law enforcement officials. An assassination attempt on Wednesday injured a senior Russian military intelligence officer in Moscow, with the suspect apprehended in Turkey.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Kharkiv City and near Avdiivka and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Biden makes national address, vows to try to 'stop Putin' in last 6 months of term. On July 24, U.S. President Joe Biden addressed the nation from the White House, explaining his decision to end his bid for reelection in 2024 and praising Vice President Kamala Harris as a “tough” and “capable” leader and partner. He expressed pride in his presidential service but emphasized the need for "new voices" to unify the nation, advocating for the passing of the torch to the next generation. Biden outlined his goals for his remaining six months in office, including supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and strengthening NATO. He promised that his administration would work on "rallying a coalition of proud nations” to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from “taking over Ukraine and doing more damage." He also encouraged voters to choose "hope over hate" in the upcoming election. Kyiv Independent Full transcript of Biden speech Reuters

U.S. to establish bipartisan task force to probe Trump rally shooting. The House voted unanimously (416-0) on Wednesday to create a task force to investigate the security failures at the July 13 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where a shooter nearly assassinated former President Donald Trump. The bipartisan decision reflects widespread outrage over the incident, which left one rallygoer dead and two others injured. The task force, which will be composed of 13 members (seven Republicans and six Democrats), will determine what went wrong and provide recommendations to prevent future lapses, issuing a final report by December 13. The bill was sponsored by Rep. Mike Kelly, who was present at the rally. The move follows multiple House hearings and the resignation of Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle. Lawmakers emphasized both the need for accountability and the necessity of preventing such incidents in the future. Associated Press CNN Politico

U.S. decision to boost AUKUS, cut down restrictions, is just the start. The U.S. is easing restrictions on the transfer of military equipment and technology to Britain and Australia, in a bid to strengthen the AUKUS security alliance amid escalating global tensions. Formed in 2021 to counter China's growing power, AUKUS includes a $245 billion project for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. The U.S. State Department proposed reducing licensing requirements for transfers among the three countries, with the final rule set for publication in August. This regulatory change aims to foster long-term collaboration between industries in the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Officials emphasize bipartisan support and significant impacts on the arms export control act. Next steps involve creating an environment for information sharing and collective defense procurement, and slashing barriers that hinder seamless cooperation. Reuters

U.S. seeks to boost Philippines' ability to operate legally in its waters. A top White House official on Wednesday said that Washington aims to enhance the Philippines' capabilities to operate lawfully in its waters. This new comes ahead of defense and foreign ministers' meetings between the two countries. The U.S. welcomed a recent agreement between Manila and Beijing to ease South China Sea tensions, emphasizing the importance of its implementation. American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, will visit Manila early next week to reassure support amid U.S. election uncertainties. Washington plans to provide significant support for modernizing the Philippine armed forces and expand discussions on new military sites under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Some significant announcements regarding U.S. support for the Philippines are anticipated.  Reuters

Legislator accuses DHS of stonewalling on Jan. 6 Secret Service report. Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of the House Administration subcommittee on oversight, on Wednesday accused the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) of delaying the release of an inspector general report on the Secret Service’s actions during the January 6 Capitol attack. He criticized DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, linking the alleged stalling to recent security failures at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. Loudermilk demanded the release of two reports within five business days. DHS officials denied intentionally causing a delay, stating that the inspector general controls the timing. The accusations followed the resignation of Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle after security lapses at the rally, which allowed for the attempted assassination of GOP nominee Trump. The DHS Office of Inspector General, led by Joseph Cuffari, has faced controversy over its handling of investigations, including the deletion of critical text messages from the time period around Jan. 6. Loudermilk alleged that DHS obstructed the inspector general’s oversight and demanded unredacted reports on DHS’s intelligence actions before Jan. 6, accusing the department of attempting to avoid scrutiny. Washington Post

Report suggests intervention of Kenyan police forces in Haiti needs quick results. The Kenyan-led multinational police mission in gang-ravaged Haiti must quickly produce visible security improvements to gain community trust and not be perceived as part of the problem, according to a Wednesday security bulletin by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC). Several hundred Kenyan police officers landed in Haiti in June, joining national police in a U.N.-backed effort to combat armed gangs controlling much of Port-au-Prince. While authorities have secured key infrastructure, civilians in gang-controlled areas still rely on gang leaders for basic needs. These groups strengthen their control by providing food, cash, and jobs, and residents fear being used as human shields. The mission provides critical support to Haiti's under-resourced police, but uncertainties remain about its strategy and engagement rules. Reuters

Venezuelan Attorney General claims nation has no political prisoners, election should be peaceful.  In a Tuesday interview with Reuters, Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek Saab asserted that the country does not prosecute individuals for their political opinions, and denied holding political prisoners, ahead of controversial, upcoming presidential elections where President Nicolas Maduro seeks a third term. Saab claimed that the nearly 290 people detained nationwide are held for terrorism or conspiracy, not political motives. The opposition, led by candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, argues that the arrests and other actions by authorities are aimed at undermining their campaign. Despite concerns about potential fraud, Saab insists the election will be peaceful and fair, with prestigious election observers present. He also mentioned that any reported fraud by the National Electoral Council would be investigated. Saab defended the government's record, noting that 615 officials have been convicted for abuses during past protests, and dismissed the need for further investigation by the International Criminal Court. Reuters

Who is Edmundo Gonzalez, campaigning to be Venezuela president? Edmundo Gonzalez, a 74-year-old former diplomat, is campaigning for the Venezuelan presidency in Sunday’s election. Initially unknown, Gonzalez was chosen as the opposition candidate after Maria Corina Machado was barred from public office. Advocating for peaceful dialogue and democratic transition, Gonzalez contrasts sharply with President Nicolas Maduro's confrontational rhetoric. Despite potential electoral obstacles and threats from Maduro, Gonzalez has garnered significant support, appealing to voters' hopes for change and the return of millions of Venezuelan migrants. Concerns about electoral fairness persist, with opposition warnings about intentional voter confusion in the oil-rich nation of 28 million people. Reuters

EUROPE

NATO says Europe’s defenses have wide holes, must be overhauled. NATO’s military planners have been working behind the scenes on securing and bolstering Europe's defenses.  The alliance is overhauling its capabilities due to fears of increased Russian aggression, detailing the significant costs and shortfalls in key areas like air defenses, ammunition, troop numbers, railway capacity, logistics, and a lack of safe digital communications. These plans aim to set binding defense targets for European governments by 2025. The upcoming U.S. election adds uncertainty, especially if GOP nominee Donald Trump, who is openly critical of NATO, wins and shifts transatlantic relations. European nations will need to increase military spending beyond the current 2% GDP target to meet NATO's requirements, despite potential budgetary and political challenges. Reuters interviewed 12 military and civilian officials on the continent about the clandestine plans, one of whom said it is time Europe "bare its teeth,'' prepare for an event as severe as a fully-fledged Russian invasion and engage in deterrence strategies such as deploying combat-ready troops up to a potential frontline. Reuters

U.K., Germany sign joint defense pact for closer collaboration. Great Britain and Germany on Wednesday signed a joint defense declaration to enhance their defense industries, bolster Europe’s security, and back Ukraine against Russian forces. British Defense Minister John Healey and his German counterpart Boris Pistorius signed the pact in Berlin, during Healey's two-day trip to France, Poland, and Estonia to emphasize the new Labour government's commitment to strengthen defense ties with E.U. allies. The accord aims to toughen European defense capabilities, focusing on air defenses, long-range missiles, troop numbers, ammunition, and secure communications. It includes nurturing the European defense industrial base, joint procurement, and research and development cooperation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has advocated for improved U.K.-E.U. defense cooperation and proposed a comprehensive security pact. Reuters Politico Kyiv Independent

London signs $227 million Thales U.K. contract for Martlet missiles. The British Ministry of Defense has contracted Thales U.K. to procure "Martlet" missiles, valued at $227 million, to replenish its stocks after donating hundreds to Ukraine. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2027. The exact number of missiles ordered is undisclosed for security reasons. Martlet missiles, used by both the Ukrainian military and the British Navy, have been effective against various threats, including Russian Shahed drones. These 13-kilogram missiles can target airborne and maritime threats. They were first used from a Wildcat helicopter in 2021 and recently in the Red Sea to protect commercial vessels. This contract is part of the U.K.’s broader munitions strategy. Defense News

Putin met with Syria's Assad in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad met in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss regional developments and escalating tensions, according to the Kremlin’s press service. The meeting reportedly focused on assessing the situation in Syria and the broader Eurasian region. Putin expressed interest in Assad's perspective on these issues, while Assad emphasized the importance of discussing current events and potential future scenarios. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran summons German ambassador after banning of Islamic center. Iran's foreign ministry on Wednesday summoned the German ambassador in Tehran after Berlin banned the Islamic Centre Hamburg (IZH) association. Germany's interior ministry stated that the IZH acted as a direct representative of Iran's Supreme Leader and aimed to establish theocratic rule in Germany. The IZH could not be reached for comment, and its website was inaccessible. Reuters 

Erdogan courts ‘terrorist’ Assad amid pressure to solve Turkey’s ‘Syrian problem’. Syrian refugees in Turkey face growing hostility as anti-Syrian riots erupt and calls for mass deportations increase. Turkey hosts an estimated 3.1 million Syrians, but integration has been challenging. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar al- Assad, whom he once opposed. “Right now there is no acceptance of Syrians in Turkey,” said Ebubekir Hussamoglu, a Syrian who arrived in Turkey just before the 2011 civil war broke out at home. Tensions escalated following incidents like a reported sexual assault in Kayseri, leading to violence against Syrians. Most refugees face restrictions and work informally, while Turkey's high inflation exacerbates economic pressures. The Turkish government maintains that deportations are voluntary, but refugees report unsafe conditions upon return to Syria. One of Erdogan’s most formidable political rivals is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. In an interview, the mayor said he believes there are 2.5 million Syrians in Istanbul alone – five times the official estimate – and way beyond what’s manageable. “The solution should be found in Syria, by negotiating with the regime in Syria,” he said. CNN 

ASIA & OCEANIA

North Korea, Belarus seek to bolster relations. North Korea aims to strengthen ties with Belarus to "open a new era," according to state media KCNA, citing Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. This announcement came after Choe met with Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Vladimirovich Ruzenkov in Pyongyang. Both nations are friends to Russia, which faces diplomatic isolation and sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia has transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, conducted joint military exercises, and recently agreed on a pact with North Korea to provide mutual military aid in the case of armed aggression. Ruzenkov arrived in Pyongyang at the North's invitation, and during a reception, Choe emphasized the importance of enhancing bilateral relations. Separately, a Russian delegation led by Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, which had been visiting North Korea, departed on Tuesday. Reuters Associated Press 

U.S. sanctions China-based ring for aiding North Korea. The U.S. on Wednesday imposed sanctions on a China-based ring, called the Shi Qianpei network, for aiding North Korea's development of ballistic missile and space programs, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. This network, comprising six individuals and five companies, was involved in procuring items in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. Pyongyang depends on foreign materials and components for its weapons of mass destruction programs, using overseas procurement agents. These agents work with foreign companies to buy and repackage items needed for the programs, concealing their end-use. Shi Qianpei, a Chinese national, is identified as a key facilitator in this ring. Reuters

Hong Kong court rejects democrat Jimmy Lai's effort to end trial. A Hong Kong court dismissed jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai's bid to end his national security trial, asserting sufficient evidence for all three charges against him. Lai, 76, founder of the pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, pleaded not guilty to conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and to publish seditious material. Judge Esther Toh ruled Lai must answer all charges, with the trial resuming on November 20. Lai's defense argued there was no case since prior agreements were lawful before the security law's imposition. Lai could face a life sentence if convicted. Reuters

Chinese stocks’ 'policy put' is crumbling. Investors are wary of Chinese markets due to past short-lived rallies and the ongoing impact of President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on leverage. This crackdown has depressed home prices, caused a confidence crisis among homebuyers, and weakened the country's growth outlook, adversely affecting valuations for companies on indexes like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component. Investors have become skeptical of potential policy support for the real estate sector, leading to volatile trading cycles. There is low confidence in Beijing's ability to address economic issues effectively. The situation has led to quick, volatile market movements, as investors seek to profit from fleeting rallies while avoiding subsequent losses when policy promises fall short. This volatility is precisely what Chinese authorities hope to avoid, but their current approach may be exacerbating it. Despite the Third Plenum’s focus on boosting economic growth, recent market reactions suggest that detailed and effective policies are still lacking. Reuters

North Korean rubbish-balloons start rooftop blaze, disrupt flights in Seoul. North Korea has launched approximately 500 balloons filled with trash into South Korea over the past 24 hours, causing significant disruptions, including flight suspensions and a fire on a residential building's roof. One of the balloons caused a two-hour suspension of flights at Seoul's Gimpo Airport on Wednesday evening. The balloons have also disrupted traffic at Incheon, South Korea's main international airport, several times recently. In Gyeonggi province, near Seoul, a balloon ignited a fire on a residential building, which firefighters extinguished. South Korean military officials reported that some balloons were equipped with timed poppers designed to burst the balloons and scatter trash, potentially causing fires. A spokesperson for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lee Sung-jun, stated that 480 balloons carrying paper and plastic trash had landed in the South by Thursday. Additionally, on Wednesday, balloons landed near the heavily guarded presidential office in Seoul. Reuters

Vietnam considering purchasing U.S. C-130 military transport planes. The U.S. and Vietnam are negotiating the sale of Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules military transport planes to Hanoi, indicating closer security cooperation between the former adversaries. This potential agreement, which could be finalized this year, would mark Vietnam's largest military deal since 2022, when it announced its intention to diversify defense supplies beyond Russian equipment. The C-130 planes, capable of transporting soldiers, military equipment, and supplies, would significantly enhance Vietnam's defense capabilities. Washington may offer financial support, potentially covering maintenance and other costs amounting to tens of millions of dollars. The specific model under consideration is the latest C-130J iteration, although details on the total cost and number of planes are not disclosed. Lockheed Martin referred inquiries to the U.S. and Vietnamese governments, both of which declined to comment. Discussions on American arms supply to Vietnam, which are complicated due to human rights violations reported by the U.S. State Department, have been ongoing for months and are not expected to be significantly affected by recent leadership changes in Vietnam. Reuters

AFRICA

Sierra Leone imprisons 11 soldiers, police officers over last year’s attempted coup. A Sierra Leone high court sentenced 11 individuals, including former soldiers and police officers, to lengthy prison terms for their involvement in a 2023 failed military coup. On November 26, gunmen attacked military barracks, a prison, and other locations, killing over 20 people and freeing about 2,200 inmates. After the coup attempt fell apart, a dozen people were charged with treason in January. On Monday, 11 of them were convicted on 20 counts, including treason, murder, and unauthorized use of military uniform. One prisoner received multiple sentences ranging from 40 to 70 years, to be served concurrently.  The government claimed the coup was mainly led by bodyguards to ex-president Ernest Bai Koroma, who faced four related charges but was allowed to leave the country for medical reasons. Koroma condemned the coup, and his lawyers described the charges as "trumped up" and part of a "political vendetta." This incident has reignited tensions in Sierra Leone, which is still recovering from a civil war that ended in 2002 and claimed over 50,000 lives. Reuters BBC

At least 17 civilians in DR Congo’s east killed by suspected Islamists. Officials in Democratic Republic of Congo's North Kivu town of Oicha suspect that Islamist insurgents are responsible for brutal attacks on Tuesday that left at least 17 people, including women, dead. North Kivu province has been troubled by militia violence since a civil war ended in the early 2000s. The local mayor blamed the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group linked to Islamic State and originating from Uganda, for the attacks, which targeted civilians working in the fields. By Wednesday, 17 bodies, some of them decapitated with machetes, had been taken to the town’s hospital morgue. The chief of the morgue and a local civil society leader suggested that the final death toll might be higher, saying they’d heard of 31 victims in total. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

China reports successful test of Long March lunar rocket third-stage.  China on Saturday conducted a successful test of the third-stage engine of its Long March-10 lunar rocket.  The Academy of Aerospace Liquid Propulsion Technology, the rocket’s developer, described the test as a “full success,” adding that the achievement “will strongly support the implementation of the nation’s manned lunar exploration.”  A new test rig used in the test is the “first of its kind in China and the largest in Asia” and can simulate high-altitude vertical flight conditions.   The Long March-10 rocket reportedly is comparable to the SpaceX Falcon Heavy and, according to developers, will be able to lift 70 tons into low-Earth orbit and 27 tons into trans-lunar injection trajectories.  The rocket’s first stage is powered by seven YF-100K engines burning a combination of kerosene and liquid oxygen. The rocket’s second stage consists of two YF-100M engines, which also burn kerosene and liquid oxygen, while the third and final stage will be powered by three YF-75E engines.  The Long March-10 rocket will be used in two launches for China’s mission to land astronauts on the moon.  Chinese space officials recently said in April they are on schedule to meet the 2030 deadline for a lunar landing as development continues of astronaut lunar landing suits and the space vehicles.  South China Morning Post

Meta releases largest Llama 3 AI model featuring multilingual, math capabilities.  Meta has announced the release of its largest version of the open source Llama 3 AI model with multilingual capabilities and performance rating competitive with other models, including OpenAI’s products.  Llama 3 is capable of conversation in eight languages and can solve higher complexity math models than earlier versions.  The 405-billion-parameter model is significantly larger than Llama 2 although smaller that competitor models.  Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said future Llama models will outperform commercial rivals by 2025.  Meta also announced the release of updated versions of 8-billion and 70-billion-parameter Llama 3 models with all three models featuring multilingual and expanded “context windows” for user queries.  Meta's head of generative AI, Ahmad Al-Dahle, told Reuters the larger context window “was the number one feedback we got from the community."  Meta’s Llama models are offered largely free-of-charge for use by developers.  Zuckerberg has said this strategy will pay off in more innovation and greater engagement on Meta’s core social networks. The company may also benefit if developers opt to use free models over fee-based ones.  Reuters   TheVerge  

CrowdStrike cites validation tool failure for global software update outage.  Errors in CrowdStrike’s content validation software led to the flawed software update that disrupted 8.5 million Windows devices worldwide and caused widespread airline cancellations and delays, among other impacts.  The update is part of CrowdStrike’s “rapid response content” designed to meet evolving threat environments at operational speed.   Last week’s update passed validation steps despite the defective content data, a small 40KB configuration data file.   CrowdStrike’s confidence in the Content Validator was based on previous successful update deployments.  The company announced several additional measures to prevent recurrences, including enhancements of rapid response content testing that will include local developer testing, stress testing, fault injection, and stability testing.   In the future, customers will have greater control over when updates are delivered and applied, and will get detailed information about the updates.   In addition, rapid response updates will be deployed gradually beginning with a small control group followed by deliveries to the larger client base.   CrowdStrike indicated it will publicly disclose the full root cause analysis once the investigation is complete.  U.S. lawmakers have asked CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz to testify and explain in detail what led up to last week’s global tech outage.  Cybernews   Reuters   EnGadget   Wall Street Journal

Prototype counter-drone systems tested against drone swarms in DoD exercise.  An ambitious DoD drone demonstration exercise took place over several weeks in June at the Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona.  The exercise featured repeated swarm attacks by multiple drone types, including mini-helicopters, prop-driven drones, and jet-equipped UAV’s, converging on a target from different altitudes and angles.  The drone attacks challenged prototype counter-drone defenses that demonstrated a “greater level of maturity” and “much better solutions'' to drone threats than previous demonstrations, according to Col. Michael Parent, chief of acquisitions & resources at the Army-led Joint Counter-small Unmanned Aircraft System Office (JCO).  The results of the Yuma exercise are still being evaluated and will be shared with the services, combatant commanders, and the eight vendors who participated.  The nine candidate counter-drone systems included four types of sensors — radars, cameras both electro-optical and infra-red, and radio-frequency scanners – and four types of “effectors” — guided rockets, drone-killing mini-drones, machine guns, and radio-frequency jammers.  BreakingDefense

Senators demand safety, AI model commitments from OpenAI.  Five U.S. senators have sent a letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman demanding responses on the safety of the company’s latest AI model.  The senators noted that OpenAI’s partnerships with U.S. national security and defense sectors, heightening the need to protect against “insecure or otherwise vulnerable AI systems.”   The letter also raised the topic of OpenAI’s employment contracts, which it said should not contain provisions “used to penalize employees who publicly raise concerns about company practices.”  Regarding a pledge OpenAI made to prevent existential risks from AI, the senators asked if the company would adhere to its commitment of 20 percent of computing resources to AI safety research.   They also insisted that the company open its next foundational AI model to government experts for pre-deployment testing.  Overall, the letter demanded responses to 12 questions by August 13.  Cybernews  Washington Post

U.S. Arctic strategy eyes Chinese investments in polar infrastructure, research.  The U.S. military strategy announced on Monday aiming to strengthen partnerships with allies concerning Arctic development and protection will establish an Arctic Security Policy Roundtable.  The roundtable is intended as a complement to the Arctic Council, the global forum on the Arctic that excludes defense issues.  The new strategy document responds, in part, to increased Chinese collaboration with Russia, including joint exercises in the region.   The Pentagon document notes that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine “has made it increasingly reliant on [China] for financing energy export infrastructure in the Arctic."  In addition to joint ventures with Russia, China has proposed development of a “blue economic passage” between China and Europe through the Arctic Ocean as well as plans to expand Arctic digital connectivity.   During 13 Arctic research expeditions, China has tested unmanned underwater vehicles and fixed wing aircraft designed for polar conditions.   The Pentagon said it intends to intensify Arctic activities monitoring along with allies to develop integrated deterrence.  Nikkei

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