Report for Thursday, July 11, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Thursday, July 11

Israeli military pounds Gaza City, kills 29 at soccer match

For First Time, NATO Accuses China of Supplying Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine

First F-16 Jet Fighters on Their Way to Ukraine, U.S. and Allies Say

US Coast Guard patrol detects four Chinese naval vessels in Bering Sea off Alaska island

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

DEEP DIVE: Behind the Scenes, Plans to “Trump-Proof” NATO  The Cipher Brief 

Putin’s Greatest Weapon Remains the ‘Scare Tactic’The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL- HAMAS WAR

Israeli military pounds Gaza City, kills 29 at soccer match.  The Israeli military Wednesday issued strong advisories, leaflets and social media messages to Palestinians to leave the Gaza City area because it remained a “dangerous combat zone.” The Israeli’s current intense air and ground campaign in Gaza City, the enclave’s most densely populated place until the war, indicates that Hamas fighters have regrouped there, even though the Israeli military cleared it early in the war. Civilians continue to pay a terrible price.  On Wednesday, France formally expressed “grave concerns” about an Israeli missile strike Tuesday that tore into a crowd gathered in Abassan, east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, to watch a school soccer match. At least 29 people, mostly women and children, were killed, according to Palestinian officials. The Israeli military said it had targeted a Hamas fighter implicated in the Oct. 7 attacks with a "precise munition.”  It said it would review reports that civilians were harmed.  Reuters   Reuters  Reuters  WSJ New York Times 

Nasrallah says Hamas speaks for Axis of Resistance.  Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Wednesday that Hamas was representing the entire "Axis of Resistance," meaning, Iran-backed militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.  If Hamas reached a deal with Israel, he said, Hezbollah would stop attacking Israel with rockets and drones. If there was no deal, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah was ready for war with Israel. "Hamas is negotiating on its own behalf and on behalf of the Palestinian factions, and also on behalf of the entire Axis of Resistance. What Hamas accepts, we all accept," Nasrallah said in a televised address memorializing a senior Hezbollah commander killed by an Israeli air strike. Reuters 

Israeli military strikes Syrian army targets on Golan Heights.   Israeli tanks and artillery Wednesday fired on Syrian army targets that violated the 1974 demilitarization deal in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, the Israeli military said. On Tuesday, an Israeli couple was killed by a Hezbollah rocket fired at the Golan Heights. Hezbollah said its attack retaliated for the death of one of its men, targeted by an Israeli strike on Syrian territory.  Reuters

Aid backload builds at Gaza crossings. UN pleads for security for trucks.   Israeli officials said Wednesday that 1,150 truckloads of humanitarian aid had arrived on the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing into the southern Gaza Strip and were waiting for to be distributed. COGAT, an Israeli defense ministry agency that coordinates aid deliveries into Palestinian territories, said another 50 aid trucks were waiting at the Palestinian side of the Erez crossing in northern Gaza. "Yes, the aid is being dropped off. But on the other side of that you have utter lawlessness, plus you have continuing conflict," U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric. "We are continuing to do our best to get that to those people who need it.” The few trucks that brave the trip "are doing it often at great cost, because they are being either looted or attacked by criminal elements,” he said.  Reuters

U.S. to ship 500-pound bombs to Israel, still withholding 2,000 pound bombs.  The U.S. will resume supplying 500-pound bombs to Israel, ending a two-month suspension aimed at reducing civilian casualties in Gaza.  But shipments of 2,000-pound bombs are still being “paused,” officials said.  Wall Street Journal  Reuters Al Jazeera

U.S. is 'cautiously optimistic' about Gaza ceasefire talks. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told CNN Wednesday that gaps between the two sides could be narrowed. "We are cautiously optimistic that things are moving in a good direction," Kirby said when asked if a ceasefire deal was close. Reuters

U.S. to dismantle Gaza aid pier after only 20 days of operations. U.S. officials have announced plans to permanently dismantle the American military pier in Gaza, which was built two months ago as a temporary measure to provide struggling Palestinians with humanitarian aid. The pier has faced challenges due to bad weather, requiring it to be frequently moved. It will be reconnected to the Gaza coastline for a few days to transfer accumulated humanitarian supplies from Cyprus and a floating dock, before being disassembled. The pier, currently at the Israeli port of Ashdod, has been operational for fewer than 20 days since its initial positioning on May 17, and often unloaded aid directly onto the beach due to security concerns. The project, costing $230 million, has been criticized for diverting attention from efforts to pressure Israel to open more efficient land crossings. The Guardian ABC Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

For First Time, NATO Accuses China of Supplying Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine. The NATO Summit marked a historic shift as the alliance, for the first time, accused China of becoming “a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.” The alliance demanded that Beijing halt the shipment of weapons components to Moscow. The stance represents a departure for NATO, which only began mentioning China as a concern in 2019. Even a year ago, European leaders were hesitant to challenge Beijing. All 32 NATO leaders approved the declaration, which also blames China for “malicious cyber and hybrid activities, including disinformation” aimed at the United States and Europe. ​​This move aligns NATO more closely with Washington's stance against Beijing, reflecting a new unity among members in addressing global security threats. China on Thursday criticized the draft communique. “On the Ukraine crisis, NATO hyped up China's responsibility. It makes no sense and comes with malicious intent," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jin told a regular press briefing. New York Times Reuters NATO Washington Summit Declaration Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera 

At NATO summit, allies move to counter Russia, bolster Ukraine. At the NATO Summit, allies committed to bolstering Ukraine with at least €40 billion in military aid within the next year. The summit emphasized NATO's support for Ukraine's path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including potential NATO membership. The summit communique declared the alliance supports Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” Membership for Ukraine will only come “when allies agree and conditions are met,” the statement said. Additionally, NATO announced the deployment of long-range missiles in Germany by 2026 to counter Russia's threat. The communique called China a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war and called for an end to Beijing’s support for Moscow. This summit underscores NATO's resolve to support Ukraine and counter aggression from Russia and China. Reuters NATO Washington Summit Declaration New York Times Associated Press 

First F-16 Jet Fighters on Their Way to Ukraine, U.S. and Allies Say. At the NATO Summit, it was announced that Ukraine will receive 80 F-16 jet fighters from the U.S., Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway to boost its air defense and ground attack capabilities. The Netherlands pledged 24 jets, Denmark 19, Belgium 30, and Norway 6. These advanced warplanes are aimed at helping Kyiv shoot down Russian missiles and conduct deep-strike attacks. The first deliveries will be operational later this summer. The U.S. and its allies also plan to provide further air defenses to support Ukraine. Wall Street Journal  Reuters  Reuters  Reuters Washington Post 

Zelensky returns to Congress to bolster relationships amid worries of Trump's return. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday to strengthen relationships with lawmakers who will vote on future U.S. aid for Ukraine. Amid concerns about former President Donald Trump's possible reelection, Zelensky met with Senate and House leaders and members involved in defense and national security. He emphasized the importance of support for Ukraine and awarded Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell the Order of Merit of Ukraine. He sat down with the Republican House of Representatives speaker, Mike Johnson, telling reporters he had invited Johnson to Kyiv. Zelensky urged U.S. leaders to provide more aid without waiting for the election outcome. Democrats and internationally focused Republicans have worked together to approve the $175 billion in aid for Ukraine that Washington has approved since Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Reuters

Britain’s new government vows to prioritize Ukraine's fight. Britain’s new Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will prioritize supporting Ukraine against Russia despite fiscal constraints. Incoming Defense Secretary John Healey, who visited the Black Sea port of Odesa in his second day on the job, stressed the UK's commitment to countering Russian aggression. “The defense of the U.K. starts with the defense of Ukraine,” Healey said Wednesday from Washington in his first interview with an American newspaper since taking the job. “We know that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he won’t stop there.” Starmer’s administration aims to maintain strong NATO support and ties with Washington while boosting UK defense capabilities. Healey emphasized the need for comprehensive support to help Ukraine reclaim its territory and negotiate peace. He said the conflict is as much an industrial and economic contest between Russia and the West as it is a military battle between Kyiv and Moscow. While Starmer has embraced the previous government’s pledge to increase defense spending from 2.3 percent of gross domestic product to 2.5 percent, he has set aside the promise to do so by 2030. Washington Post Associated Press  

Ukraine tells Hungary: no peace proposals based on Russian narratives. During the NATO Summit in Washington on Wednesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto that peace initiatives should not be based on Russian narratives. This followed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing, where he proposed a ceasefire that Ukraine and Russia rejected. Kuleba emphasized that only Ukraine's blueprint for settlement, which includes the withdrawal of Russian troops, is acceptable. Kyiv officials fear a ceasefire would lead to future Russian attacks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted on Ukrainian capitulation, neutrality, demilitarization and the surrender of Ukrainian territory as conditions for peace talks. Ukraine is preparing a broad plan for a follow-up summit later this year. Reuters 

Hungarian opposition leader delivers aid to damaged Kyiv children's hospital. Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar of the Respect and Freedom (TISZA) Party headed to Kyiv on Wednesday to provide assistance to a children's hospital damaged in recent Russian airstrikes. His party raised about 15 million forints ($41,276.83) and collected medical supplies and food. This initiative followed Monday’s Russian missile attack on the hospital. Magyar criticized Prime Minister Viktor Orban's recent "peace mission" visits to Kyiv and Moscow. Reuters 

Kremlin says creation of "buffer zone" in Ukraine needs time. The Kremlin announced Wednesday that creating a "buffer zone" in Ukraine's Kharkiv region to protect Russia's border, especially Belgorod, will take time. President Vladimir Putin initiated this plan in May. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized the effort's time-consuming nature. The same day, Belgorod's governor reported one death and seven injuries from Ukrainian shelling in Shebekino, highlighting frequent attacks in the region. Reuters

Defense minister urges Ukrainians throughout Europe to join new legion. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov called on Ukrainians across Europe to join a new legion based in Poland, aimed at enhancing Ukraine's military strength with Western support. Announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw on Monday, this initiative seeks to bolster Ukraine's forces against the larger Russian military. The new unit will benefit from modern equipment provided by Kyiv's Western allies, aligning with Ukraine's efforts to boost military personnel and capabilities. Reuters 

Ukraine accuses Russia of killing two prisoners of war. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin on Wednesday accused Russian forces of executing two Ukrainian prisoners of war captured in June in Zaporizhzhia. Kostin cited a video showing Russian soldiers ordering the unarmed Ukrainians into a trench before shooting them. Russia has denied committing war crimes despite Ukraine documenting nearly 130,000 such cases. The video, posted on social media, has not been independently verified. Reuters

Russian attack on Odesa region kills two, damages port, Ukraine says. Russia launched 20 drones and five missiles at Ukraine on Wednesday, killing two people and injuring one in the Odesa region. The attack damaged port infrastructure, trucks, and a civilian ship. An energy facility in Rivne was also hit, causing temporary power cuts. Ukraine's air force downed 14 drones and three missiles. Odesa, a key hub for Ukraine's Black Sea exports, has faced regular attacks since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Reuters

Russia attacks city of Voznesensk in Mykolaiv Oblast, killing 1, injuring 8, including mayor. Russian forces attacked Voznesensk in Mykolaiv Oblast on Wednesday, killing one man and injuring eight others, including Mayor Yevhenii Velychko. Voznesensk, located about 90 kilometers northwest of Mykolaiv, is regularly targeted due to its proximity to the front lines. Kyiv Independent

EU welcomes a one-year roaming extension between EU and Ukraine. On Wednesday, the European Commission welcomed a one-year roaming extension between the European Union and Ukraine. "In times of war, a phone line is a lifeline, connecting people who sought refuge in Europe to those who stayed on the front," European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said. The commission said it is the fifth extension of an agreement between 22 European and seven Ukrainian telecommunications operators. Reuters

Polish official optimistic that new NATO training center could ready Ukrainians living abroad to combat Russia. A new NATO-Ukraine joint training center in Poland aims to provide military training to potentially “millions” of Ukrainian civilians living abroad who may return to the fight against Russia, according to Jacek Siewiera, head of Poland’s National Security Bureau. Speaking at the NATO summit in Washington, Siewiera noted that Ukraine has struggled to recruit enough soldiers over two years into the war. The training center in Poland’s Bydgoszcz, announced earlier this year, underscores NATO’s long-term commitment to Kyiv. Siewiera mentioned that the center would not only train Ukrainians but also allow them to share battlefield tactics, such as the use of civilian drones, with NATO member nations. The center could also train Ukrainian volunteer forces from European countries, as many prefer training outside Ukraine. Ukraine's military is currently overstretched, as it tries to prepare new recruits while also engaged in combat. Associated Press

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Wednesday, July 10, 2024. Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk emphasized the importance of robust Western security assistance for Ukraine to seize the battlefield initiative. Havrylyuk disputed that Russian forces can sustain gradual advances indefinitely, undermining Vladimir Putin's war of attrition strategy. Ukrainian troops are conducting limited counterattacks, highlighting that the current positional warfare is not indefinitely stable. Putin’s strategy involves high casualty rates. Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Russia's stance of not accepting any peace settlements short of Ukrainian capitulation and full occupation. Russian servicemembers reportedly executed two Ukrainian POWs in Zaporizhia Oblast, continuing a pattern of war crimes. Increased alert levels were instituted at US military bases in Europe due to intensified Russian sabotage and hybrid operations.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

US Coast Guard patrol detects four Chinese naval vessels in Bering Sea off Alaska island. The Honolulu-based U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball encountered several Chinese military ships in international waters within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while on routine patrol in the Bering Sea. Three vessels were detected on Wednesday about 124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass, and a fourth was spotted 84 miles north of the Amukta Pass. All four Chinese ships were operating within the U.S.’s EEZ, which extends 200 nautical miles from the U.S. shoreline, but complied with international rules. Rear Adm. Megan Dean stated that the U.S. Coast Guard ensured no disruptions to American interests. This incident follows previous encounters with Chinese naval ships near Alaska in 2022 and 2021. Washington frequently conducts freedom of navigation operations in disputed Asian waters, asserting that this practice aligns with national interests. Associated Press

Canada starts process to obtain up to 12 submarines to bolster Arctic defenses. Canada is advancing plans to acquire up to 12 new submarines to strengthen its Arctic defense, and has initiated formal talks with manufacturers, according to Defense Minister Bill Blair. This move aligns with Ottawa’s updated defense policy, which prioritizes Arctic protection and addresses issues from Russia and China. The defense ministry highlighted the strategic importance of the Arctic Ocean as a potential key shipping route between Europe and East Asia by 2050 due to global warming, stressing the need for enhanced maritime security. Blair underscored the necessity for a new submarine fleet given Canada’s extensive coastline. A formal request for information on the procurement process will be posted in the autumn. Currently, Canada’s fleet of four submarines is becoming obsolete and costly to maintain. The new submarines will be conventionally powered and ice operational. Canada continues to face pressure from the U.S. to increase defense spending in order to meet the 2% GDP target set by NATO allies last year. Reuters

Mexican navy cautions production of meth being fueled by dual-use chemicals. Four Mexican navy officials operating at Manzanillo, the nation’s largest port, expressed concerns over rising imports of "dual use" chemicals from China. These chemicals, used in legal industries such as food and pharmaceuticals, are also precursors for producing methamphetamine and fentanyl. Despite their legal uses, large quantities of the chemicals have been found in clandestine drug laboratories, suggesting their role in synthetic drug production. The navy has called on the government to regulate these chemicals to prevent their misuse by drug cartels. For example, in January, 88 metric tons of glacial acetic acid from China were seized because the importing company couldn't prove ownership. Many of the seized substances are linked to companies in Jalisco and Sinaloa, home to Mexico's major drug trafficking cartels. Manzanillo port handles nearly 60% of Mexico's container traffic, with only a small percentage of goods and ships being physically searched. Navy officials emphasized the urgent need for regulation to curb the production of synthetic drugs. They noted that Mexican cartels have increased methamphetamine exports to countries like the Netherlands, China, and Australia. According to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, Mexico has become one of the top meth manufacturers, with production rising by 200% in the last three years. Reuters

Rights group reports death of at least 261 people in El Salvador’s prisons amid anti-gang clampdown. At least 261 people have died in El Salvador's prisons during President Nayib Bukele’s 2.5-year crackdown on street gangs, according to a Wednesday report by the human rights organization Cristosal. Under a state of emergency implemented in 2022, Bukele’s government has arrested 81,110 suspected gang members, often based on appearance or residence, with around 7,000 released due to insufficient evidence. Cristosal's report, as of April 15, indicated that 88 of the 261 deaths might have been criminal acts, without specifying the nature of those acts. It highlighted deaths due to torture, lack of food, unhealthy conditions, and inadequate medical attention, describing a deliberate neglect of inmates' rights. The government has not responded to the report. Despite allegations of mass human rights abuses, Bukele remains highly popular due to a significant drop in homicide rates, which have transformed El Salvador from one of the world's most dangerous countries to the region's lowest homicide rate. Associated Press

EUROPE

ANALYSIS–Putin’s New War Economy. In his article for Foreign Affairs, Andrei Kolesnikov explores Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shift towards a Soviet-style war economy that emphasizes massive military spending and state intervention. Following the replacement of long-time defense minister Sergei Shoigu with economist Andrei Belousov, military spending has surged to nearly one-third of Russia’s 2024 budget. Putin’s approach, reminiscent of Soviet economic planning, aims for “technological sovereignty” and economic development through defense investments despite the risks of repeating past failures. As the war in Ukraine continues, this strategy endangers Russia’s financial stability, echoing the unsustainable practices that contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse. Foreign Affairs

NATO’s Arms Race Against Russia Heats Up. At the NATO summit on Wednesday, alliance leaders emphasized the need to revitalize defense industries to counter Russia's significant military spending, which is around 7-9% of its gross domestic product. NATO officials, including U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, stressed the importance of expanding production capacities and investing in new defense infrastructure. Additionally, NATO plans to enhance sanctions against Russia and bolster Ukraine with more F-16 fighter jets and other military support. The summit also highlighted concerns over Russia’s growing military partnership with North Korea and the need for increased trans-Atlantic defense cooperation. Foreign Policy

Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says. Poland's armed forces chief, General Wieslaw Kukula, said Wednesday that the nation needs to prepare for a full-scale conflict by boosting troops on the borders with Russia and Belarus. Relations with these neighbors have deteriorated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Bejda announced increasing border troops from 6,000 to 8,000 by August, with an additional 9,000 on standby. Poland's "East Shield" program, a $2.5 billion defense initiative, aims to strengthen border security by 2028. The armed forces seek to expand from 190,000 to 300,000 personnel in the coming years. Reuters 

Russia unleashes fresh crackdown on the Moscow Times. On Wednesday, Russia declared the Moscow Times an "undesirable organization," criminalizing any links to it, and threatening staff with up to six years in prison. The designation follows accusations of discrediting Russia’s leadership and spreading false information about the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. This move is part of a broader crackdown on dissent since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which led to the shutdown of many independent media outlets. Moscow Times journalists are among those who relocated their editorial operations abroad. “The Moscow Times has a long tradition of fact-based independent journalism,” Derk Sauer, the Moscow Times’ founder, said. “Whatever label the Russian authorities put on us, we’ll continue with our mission to provide our Russian and international readers with quality journalism. In Putin’s Russia, this is now a crime.” Founded in 1992, shortly after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the Moscow Times quickly emerged as Russia’s primary English-language news source and now also runs a Russian website. Financial Times Associated Press 

Hard talk, but no sanctions on Hungary's rogue EU presidency. Hungary's European Union ambassador, Balint Odor, faced criticism from 25 EU envoys for Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent trips to Moscow and Beijing, which were seen as undermining EU policies. Despite harsh language, no sanctions were threatened. Orban’s actions and letters aligning with Kremlin views on the Ukraine war led to discussions about potentially removing Hungary's presidency role. Hungary faces criticism for its domestic policies against media, opposition, and nongovernmental organizations, yet concrete measures remain unadopted. EUObserver  

Hungary defends Ukraine 'anti-war action plan' and civil society funding probes. Hungary's European Minister Janos Boka defended the country's new 'anti-war' Ukraine action plan and an investigation into Transparency International (TI) on Wednesday. Boka claimed the plan aims to expose civil society funding without restricting press freedom. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched the plan during state visits, framing it as part of a peace mission. Hungary's Sovereignty Protection Office (SPO), which operates independently but is led by a former Orbán appointee, is scrutinizing TI's cooperation with EU institutions. TI and other civil society groups view this investigation as intimidation. The European Parliament and Commission have condemned Hungary's actions. EUObserver 

Imprisoned Russian rights veteran Orlov condemns Moscow’s 'mass repression' in court hearing before being cut off. Oleg Orlov, a 71-year-old Russian human rights activist and co-chair of the group Memorial, affirmed his condemnation of "mass repression" in Russia during a court hearing on Thursday. Orlov is serving a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence for criticizing the war in Ukraine and accusing President Vladimir Putin of steering the country towards fascism. Convicted in February for discrediting the Russian army, Orlov stated, "I have no remorse or regrets. I am in the right place at the right time," speaking from a detention center via video link, which was cut off mid-statement. His supporters are concerned about his health, and his defense team has complained that his detention and transportation conditions constitute cruel and degrading treatment. Reuters

U.K. government says Biden welcomed Starmer's desire for tighter EU ties.  U.S. President Joe Biden expressed support for U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's push for closer ties with European nations during their meeting at the White House on Wednesday. They discussed U.K.-U.S. relations, as well as the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Biden reportedly appreciated Starmer's commitment to fostering stronger relationships with European counterparts and London's dedication to the AUKUS security pact with the U.S. and Australia. Both leaders emphasized the importance of unity in addressing global challenges. Starmer, attending the NATO summit in Washington, also met with European leaders, including Germany's Olaf Scholz. He aims to improve the U.K.'s cooperation with the EU on security and trade while ruling out rejoining the EU's single market or customs union. The leaders pledged to support Ukraine in its war with Russia and expressed a mutual desire for a Gaza ceasefire to facilitate hostage release, aid delivery, and progress towards a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Saudi Arabia to acquire four Airbus A330 MRTT aircraft. Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry said Wednesday that the nation has signed a deal to purchase four Airbus A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft, expanding its Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) fleet used for air-to-air refueling and transport. This is the RSAF's third contract for the A330 MRTT, which includes logistics support, technology transfer to local companies, training, spare parts, and service support. The first new aircraft is expected to join the RSAF in 2027. The agreement highlights Saudi Arabia's strategy to increase domestic military production, with the country aiming to spend over 50% of its military budget on local equipment and services by 2030. Airbus and Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) also signed an agreement earlier this year to localize the manufacturing of refueling aircraft and components. Reuters

UAE court sentences dozens to prison for allegedly operating local Muslim Brotherhood group. A United Arab Emirates (UAE) court sentenced 43 dissidents to life in prison on Wednesday, with others receiving long prison terms, in a case criticized by activists as a sham targeting political dissent. The Abu Dhabi Federal Court of Appeal handed down these sentences in a case the government linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, deemed a terrorist group by the UAE. Activists, however, said the trial was a crackdown on dissidents, coinciding with protests at the UN COP28 climate talks in Dubai. According to the state-run WAM news agency, the court convicted the defendants of attempting to incite violent attacks and panic. The court also convicted six companies of money laundering to back a terrorist organization. The agency did not provide specific evidence connecting the convicted individuals to violence or the Brotherhood. Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, condemned the trial for due process violations, allegations of torture, and unfair treatment, describing it as a “mockery of justice,” a facade to extend the detention of prisoners of conscience. Reuters Associated Press

Iraq sentences wife of late Islamic State leader to death for complicity in crimes against Yazidi women. An Iraqi court on Wednesday announced that Asma Mohammed, one of the wives of the slain Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has been sentenced to death by hanging for her role in crimes against Yazidi women. She was found guilty of detaining Yazidi women and facilitating their kidnapping by IS militants in Sinjar. This ruling comes close to the 10-year anniversary of IS's attacks on the Yazidi minority, which the U.N. has classified as genocide. Mohammed was arrested in Turkey in 2018 and extradited to Iraq. Along with her, another wife of al-Baghdadi and his daughter were also extradited and received life sentences. The Iraqi judicial council handed down these sentences a week ago. Survivors of IS attacks have criticized the lack of accountability and the Iraqi government's decision to close a U.N. investigation into IS crimes. Al-Baghdadi, who had declared himself "caliph" of all Muslims, was killed in a U.S. raid in 2019, and IS has since lost all its controlled territories, though it continues to carry out attacks through its remaining cells. Reuters Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

Japanese navy destroyer entered China’s waters, off Zhejiang province, near Taiwan. Media outlets reported Wednesday that a Japanese navy destroyer, the Suzutsuki, entered China's territorial waters near Taiwan on July 4 without notifying China, causing "serious concerns" from Beijing. The incident occurred off Zhejiang province, where China was conducting naval drills. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's destroyer, tasked with monitoring Chinese missile exercises in the East China Sea, sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Zhejiang coast for about 20 minutes despite warnings from Chinese vessels. Japan's defense ministry is investigating the incident and questioning the Suzutsuki's captain, as the crew's intentions remain unknown. This event adds to existing tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, as China's coast guard and naval vessels have previously entered Japanese territorial waters. Similar maritime confrontations have occurred in the South China Sea, including an incident in December when China accused a U.S. Navy ship of illegally entering disputed waters. Reuters

Taiwan observing increased Chinese military activity as carrier conducts Pacific drills.Taiwan’s defense ministry on Thursday said it is closely monitoring Chinese military movements following an increase in warplanes participating in drills with Beijing's Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific. These exercises coincide with a NATO summit in Washington. The Shandong carrier passed near the Philippines en route to the Pacific drills on Wednesday, and Taiwan detected 66 Chinese military aircraft around the island, with 39 heading south and southeast. Taipei also released images of two warplanes it tracked, a Chinese J-16 fighter and an H-6 bomber. A ministry spokesperson said the sovereign island has a “detailed grasp” of operations around the Taiwan Strait. China's defense ministry has not commented on the Shandong's activities. Reuters Al Jazeera

China tells India it cannot develop disputed border region. China's Foreign Ministry on Wednesday asserted that India has no right to develop the region Beijing refers to as South Tibet, responding to New Delhi's plans to expedite hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh. China considers this territory part of South Tibet, deeming India's establishment of Arunachal Pradesh "illegal and invalid." India plans to invest $1 billion to accelerate the construction of 12 hydropower stations in this northeastern Himalayan region. While India's Foreign Ministry did not immediately comment on China's statement, New Delhi maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of the country. This issue arises amidst ongoing efforts to resolve border disputes, highlighted by a recent meeting between Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Kazakhstan. Reuters

China’s private firm i-Space launches failed rocket. The Chinese private aerospace company i-Space failed to successfully launch its Hyperbola-1 rocket on Thursday, according to a report from the Xinhua news agency. The company has launched a probe into the rocket's failure at the Jiuquan satellite launch center. The rocket reportedly flew “abnormally,” but no further details were provided as to why or how. Reuters 

'Star Wars project:’ South Korea develops laser weapons to intercept North Korea’s drones. South Korea will become the world's first nation to deploy and operate laser weapons for military use, specifically to counter North Korean drones, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA). The program, termed the "Star Wars project," involves drone-zapping laser weapons developed with Hanwha Aerospace. These weapons are cost-effective, quiet, and invisible, with each shot costing around $1.45. The lasers can disable drones by burning their engines or electronic components within 10 to 20 seconds. The deployment is expected to enhance South Korea's defense capabilities against North Korean drone provocations. This decision follows a December incident in which five North Korean drones entered the South’s airspace, leading to a military response. Countries like South Korea, China, and the U.K. are rapidly developing laser weapons, or directed energy weapons, to counter unmanned systems, missiles, and satellites. The RAND Corporation, a U.S. nonprofit think tank, highlights the growing interest in these technologies for their potential military applications. Reuters South China Morning Post 

Thailand unveils new senate, replacing army-appointed legislators. Thailand's Election Commission has endorsed 200 new senators to replace the military-appointed upper house. This new legislative body will have the power to vet laws and appoint members to powerful organizations like the Election Commission and the Constitutional Court, but it will not vote on the prime minister. The political landscape in Thailand has long been divided between conservative factions backed by the military and populist parties like Pheu Thai, leading to conflicts and coups in the past. The new senate's composition reflects the decreasing influence of Pheu Thai's founder, Thaksin Shinawatra. Pheu Thai is currently entangled in legal issues that could affect its leadership. Reuters

AFRICA

Morocco set to obtain $1 billion Israeli spy satellite. Morocco is planning to purchase a spy satellite from Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) in a $1 billion deal, according to Moroccan media reports. IAI, which produces advanced drones and missile defense systems, confirmed it has entered a $1 billion contract with an unnamed third party, to be executed over five years. The contract involves supplying the Ofek 13 spy satellite, which will replace two satellites from Airbus and Thales. This deal follows a 2021 defense pact between Israel and Morocco that includes intelligence sharing and cooperation in military industries. Neither the head of the Israeli mission in Rabat nor Morocco's foreign ministry has commented on the deal. Reuters

U.N. experts say between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan soldiers working with M23 rebels in Congo. A U.N. report revealed that 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan troops are operating in eastern Congo alongside the M23 rebel group, violating Congo's sovereignty and supporting M23's territorial conquests, making Rwanda liable for the group’s actions. Eastern Congo is plagued by violence from over 120 armed groups vying for power, land, and resources, including the M23 rebels, largely ethnic Tutsis. Rwanda denies backing M23, despite acknowledging the presence of its troops in Congo for purported security reasons. The source of the crisis dates back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which led to the escape of many Hutus to Congo. M23's resurgence and rapid territorial gains have raised concerns of a broader regional conflict, and the U.N. highlighted the use of advanced military technology by M23 and Rwandan forces, which violates a U.N. arms embargo. The violence continues despite a recent humanitarian truce, and efforts by the Congolese government and various groups to counter M23 have intensified tensions with neighboring countries. Associated Press

Small-scale miners express fears as Russia’s Wagner Group advances in the Central African Republic. The arrival of Russia's Wagner Group in the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2017 has transformed the lives of thousands. Since its establishment in CAR, Wagner has taken control of significant natural resources, including gold mines, often displacing local miners. In 2022, Wagner forces killed 12 miners in Koki, a small town in the Ouham Prefecture. Sadock, a 23-year-old artisanal miner who asked to be identified only by his first name, sought safety in Koki but found himself again displaced by violence. He and others repeatedly moved to new mines, but many faced continuous attacks, threats, and disappearances. In Ndassima, Wagner mercenaries forcibly displaced miners in 2021, taking control of a lucrative gold mine. Similar violence occurred in Aigbado in 2022, where 70 people were killed. Despite the CAR's rich natural resources, it remains impoverished and conflict-ridden. The government, having turned to Russia for security assistance, has enabled Wagner’s dominance, leading to numerous human rights abuses. Sadock and other survivors live in constant fear, with many considering leaving mining due to the dangers posed by armed groups and the unstable environment. Al Jazeera

U.N. mission to Libya reports abduction of political activist in Misrata, location remains unknown. The U.N. Libya mission (UNSMIL) has called for the release of political activist Al-Moatassim Al-Areebi and an end to arbitrary detentions in Libya. Al-Areebi, 29, was kidnapped on Monday in Misrata by unidentified armed men, while his friend Mohamed Shtewi was also taken but later released after being beaten. The whereabouts of Al-Areebi remain unknown. UNSMIL urged Misrata's security and law enforcement agencies to investigate the abduction, disclose Al-Areebi's location, and ensure his immediate release. The Tripoli government has not commented on the incident. UNSMIL highlighted ongoing issues in Libya, including arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, ill-treatment, torture, and deaths in custody. Since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has experienced ongoing instability and split governance between eastern and western factions. Reuters

Armed men interrupt migrant rescue in the Mediterranean waters off Libya, steal boat. SOS Mediterranee, an aid group that rescues migrants, reported that one of its missions was disrupted by armed bandits who boarded an overloaded smugglers’ boat in the Mediterranean and took it after the migrants panicked and leapt into the sea. The incident occurred 46 nautical miles north of Zuwara on Libya’s western coast, a common departure point for migrants heading to Europe. The motive of the bandits was unclear, but such boats are often sunk by Italian authorities for safety reasons. The general director of SOS Mediterranee criticized governments for reducing rescue resources, resulting in more dangerous situations for both migrants and aid workers. The number of migrants arriving in Italy by boat this year (27,744) is significantly lower than last year's (72,036). Italy's right-wing government, led by Premier Giorgia Meloni, has prioritized limiting migration through various measures, including deals with African countries to block departures and restrictions on humanitarian rescue operations. Associated Press

CYBER & TECH

U.S., allies take down Russian botnet disinformation operation on X platform.  U.S. and allied authorities seized control of an AI-enhanced Russian propaganda mill that operated almost 1,0000 covert accounts on the X messaging platform.  The “bot farm” network created by the campaign featured false personas of various nationalities to spread disinformation and narratives on X favorable to the Russian government.  U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said that the joint action “demonstrates that the Justice Department and our partners will not tolerate Russian government actors and their agents deploying AI to sow disinformation and fuel division among Americans.”  Western intelligence agencies traced the operation to a Russian FSB intelligence officer and an editor of the RT state-controlled media outlet.  The joint advisory from the U.S., Netherlands, and Canada said a variety of software programs were used in the botnet network, including Meliorator, which created fictitious X users in different countries.  The FBI seized two web domains used by the campaign to register fake account email addresses.  Information from the investigation showed that large language models helped Russian operators tailor their campaign and assisted in translations.  Washington Post   CyberScoop   PCMag   Bloomberg   DefenseOne   Justice Department

NATO summit provides fertile ground for adversary cyberespionage, disinformation.  Security experts say that the NATO summit is expected to be targeted by foreign threat actors engaged in cyberespionage and disinformation campaigns.  They warn that hackers will likely use phishing emails and other tactics to obtain sensitive data and manipulate public perception of the summit.  John Hultquist, chief threat analyst at the cyber firm Mandiant, noted that “for years we’ve seen a spike in activity around the summit.”  Russia in 2017 targeted and compromised smartphones of NATO soldiers in Poland.  Disinformation campaigns have also been used to spread false information about NATO.   Leading up to the U.S. elections in November, Russia reportedly is attempting to erode trust in the voting process and diminish support for U.S. efforts to defend Ukraine.  Russia-linked groups are targeting U.S. politicians, specific voter demographics, and promoting divisive narratives.  The summit is expected to be a target-rich environment for surveillance and intelligence gathering by visiting delegations themselves.  RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), a former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, said “while in theory these are all allies, you still have to practice and enable good security in the presence of so many intelligence collectors.” Bloomberg

NATO plans AI, cybersecurity joint projects with Indo-Pacific allies.  NATO, along with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, will initiate four new defense cooperation projects, including efforts focusing on AI, disinformation, and cybersecurity.  U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan noted that "each initiative is different, but the main goal is the same: harness the unique strengths of highly capable democracies to address shared global challenges."  Sullivan went on to say that "what happens in Europe impacts the Indo-Pacific…(and) what happens in the Indo-Pacific impacts Europe."  The NATO summit is expected to focus on security challenges posed by Russia, China, and North Korea.  Explaining that the security environment faced by NATO is now global in scope, especially in light of the rapid defense industrial expansion of China, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said "the transatlantic defense industrial base is at a pivotal moment.”  Hicks said that NATO’s collaborations with Australia, Japan and South Korea on co-production of weapons and joint maintenance of ships and aircraft would be to all of the partners’ advantage.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO officials will discuss defense industry cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners Thursday.  He said the Indo-Pacific allies "are all advanced defense industries.  …Part of what we agreed as allies will be to step up our cooperation with them.”  Nikkei

DoD leader urges NATO investments in defense industrial capacity, interoperability.  Boosting NATO’s defense industrial capacity and promoting interoperable drones and other systems are strategic imperatives for the alliance, according to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks.  Speaking at a NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, Hick said that while the alliance must confront the threat of Russian aggression, “we also cannot ignore the global pacing challenge presented by the People’s Republic of China. So, we have to double down with urgency and confidence.”  Hicks acknowledged the “significant, sustained” progress NATO has achieved in investing in defense spending, but called for the alliance to boost collective defense industrial production in order to deliver combat-ready systems at a faster pace and larger scale.  Specifically, Hicks focused attention on “new technologies wherever they can add military value — like advanced manufacturing, biotech, and all-domain attritable autonomous systems.”  Hicks also emphasized the need for NATO to continue improving the interoperability and interchangeability of partner capabilities and weapons.  DefenseScoop

Five Eyes, Pacific allies join in warning of Chinese APT40 cyber campaigns.  U.S., Australian and authorities of six other allies have warned that the Chinese state-sponsored hacking group, APT40, represents a threat to the networks of all the partner countries.  The so-called Five Eyes intelligence partners – U.S., Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand, were joined by Germany, Japan, and South Korea in issuing an advisory on China’s malicious cyber operations.  The allies’ announcement provided details of how APT40 targeted two networks in 2022 and are continuing to threaten allied systems.  South Korea and Japan for the first time joined in raising the alarm about Chinese cyber campaigns.  In making the announcement, Australian defense minister Richard Marles said “in our current strategic circumstances, these attributions are increasingly important tools in deterring malicious cyber activity.”  Rachael Falk, chief executive of Australia’s Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre, described how APT40 exploits new, and sometimes old, public vulnerabilities in widely used software, including in compromised small home office devices.  “They are highly skilled at hiding within the network,” she said, adding that “they look like legitimate traffic or normal users and strike with precision when the time is right, stealing valuable data.”  Wall Street Journal   South China Morning Post   CISA

Newly developed Chinese stealth fighter designed for aircraft carrier deployment.  China reportedly will deploy a fifth-generation stealthy fighter jet, the J-31B, aboard the country’s latest aircraft carrier, the Fujian.  In late June, the Shenyang Aircraft company released a video of the new aircraft, describing its capabilities reaching from “the land base to marine base.”  The advanced avionics technology of the J-31B, Nikkei reports, will make it much harder to detect by radar.  Some defense aviation experts say the third J-31B test flight is underway.  The new aircraft will serve as a multi-purpose jet aboard carriers and has been compared to the U.S. F-35 Lightening II. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been increasing deployments of the fifth-generation, ground-based Chengdu J-20 fighter.  The Chengdu J-20 was developed as a competitor to the U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth aircraft.  Nikkei

China cybersecurity report said to misrepresent Western findings on Volt Typhoon.  A report from China’s cybersecurity agency, CVERC, has been described by Western cyber experts as misrepresenting their research in an effort to deflect allegations about Chinese Volt Typhoon penetrations of critical infrastructure.  John Fokker, threat intelligence chief at the Trellix security firm described the CVERC report as a likely “effort from the Chinese government to manipulate public perceptions of China threats.”  In a report released on Monday, CVERC claimed that Volt Typhoon was a “misinformation campaign” that deliberately attempted to link cyberattacks carried out by the Dark Power ransomware group to the Chinese government.  The Chinese agency report is described as misrepresenting Western intelligence analysis to feed the impression that disagreements exist between CISA and private sector cybersecurity companies about the Chinese cyber campaign.  Fokker said CVERC “uses our blog to support a false conclusion that there is a connection between Dark Power and Volt Typhoon, which our research does not substantiate.”  The Record

Microsoft breach notifications confuse customers with ‘phishing-like’ content.  Microsoft’s efforts to notify customers of possible account compromises attributed to the Russia-linked Midnight Blizzard cyberattack are being criticized by cybersecurity experts.  They fault Microsoft for sending notification emails that resemble spam or phishing attempts.  According to former Microsoft employee Kevin Beaumont, the company “didn’t follow the Microsoft 365 customer data breach process.”  Customer notifications, Beaumont said, “aren’t in the portal, they emailed tenant admins instead” and can be sent to spam.  Another Microsoft customer described notification emails that contain a “secure link” to a domain that bears no apparent connection to Microsoft.  “Basically, the critical alert looks like a phishing attack,” the customer said.  One organization client posted to Microsoft’s support portal the text of a request to confirm the authenticity of Microsoft’s emails.  The client wrote, “This email has several red flags for me, the request for the TenantID and essentially admin or high level email addresses, the powerapps page being barebones, and some quick Googling not finding anything related to the title of this email or it’s [sic] contents.”  Microsoft did not respond to a TechCrunch inquiry about the number of organizations notified, or if the company plans to change the way it notifies affected customers.  TechCrunch

Australia orders government entity reports on ‘foreign-owned, controlled’ technology.  Australia’s Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has notified all government entities that they must identify technology in use that poses risks related to “foreign ownership, control, or influence (FOCI).”  The mandate extends to “any hardware, software or information system” as well as hosting platforms and enterprise systems that “stores, processes, transmits or transforms official or security classified information.”  The new requirements comes amid increased foreign cyberattacks against Australian targets, including what the Australian Signals Directorate this week identified as repeated attacks against Australian networks by a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group.  Government organizations will have until June 2025 to report FOCI risks to DHA’s cyber and protective security branch.  Included in the DHA order are systems or services that could be “directly accessed by untrusted or unknown entities over the internet.”  The new directives are the first issued under the Protective Security Policy Framework since April 2023, when Australia banned the installation of TikTok from government devices, “based on the security risk presented by that application.”  The Record

OpenAI, Los Alamos lab explore generative AI possibilities in research setting.  OpenAI and Los Alamos National Laboratory have studies underway of the risks and benefits of generative AI use in an active laboratory setting.  The initial collaborative efforts involve the use of AI to enable a nonspecialist to perform basic biomedical tasks such as assisting in the process by which genetically engineered E. coli bacteria generate insulin.  OpenAI describes the program as “first of its kind” that may lead scientists to understand the most fruitful research areas for generative AI application.  Tejal Patwardhan, a technical lead on OpenAI's preparedness team, told Axios that evaluating advanced models in a laboratory setting “is one of the first steps toward realizing their potential."  A Los Alamos researcher, Nick Generous, noted that using AI in the lab could lead to understanding how the technology could operate as both a tool and a threat.  He said added “we want to make sure that if any risks do get introduced that we can at least identify and mitigate them before they become a problem."  The Los Alamos experiments will focus on possibilities for AI tools that combine text, vision and voice data.  Axios

Chinese media reports hackers target several Macau government websites. Chinese state media reported Wednesday that several Macau government websites were hacked, prompting a criminal investigation by police to identify the source of the intrusion. The targeted websites include those of the secretary for security, public security police, fire services department, and security forces services bureau, which caused service disruptions. Authorities suspect the crime originated from overseas. An emergency response was coordinated with telecommunication operators to quickly restore the affected services. No further details were provided. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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