Report for Thursday, January 9, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Thursday, January 9, 2025

Russia Doesn’t Hold All the Cards in Ukraine, Pentagon’s Austin Says

Japanese crime leader pleads guilty in New York to trafficking nuclear materials, narcotics

What Trump Wants with Greenland

19 killed at Chad’s presidential palace after gunmen attempt to storm complex

Dual Chinese ‘next generation’ combat aircraft underscore air supremacy race with U.S.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Welcome to the Gray Zone and the Future of Great Power Competition  The Cipher Brief launches a 3-part series by Dave Pitts, former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia and member of The Cipher Brief’s new Gray Zone Group.  Pitts and other experienced experts will explore the increasingly dominant geopolitical space between peace and war where nations conduct activities to advance their national interests and weaken their adversaries without triggering a military response.  In the opener, Pitts lays out some tactics and strategies used in the gray zone by Russia and China, often working together (and supported by Iran and North Korea), in efforts to diminish the influence and standing of the U.S.  The Cipher Brief  

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli bombardment kills dozens as ceasefire/hostage release talks inch along.  Israeli airstrikes killed dozens of people across Gaza Wednesday, Palestinian medics said.  Meanwhile, in Doha, mediators from the U.S., Qatar and Egypt were trying to reach a ceasefire deal before President Joe Biden leaves office. Reuters quoted a source as saying, "Things are better than ever before, but there is no deal yet.”  Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said he hoped to report progress toward release of the hostages held by the time Trump is sworn in as president.  There was no good news about humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said that Nasser Hospital, the Gaza European Hospital and Al Aqsa Hospital were at risk of collapse for lack of fuel, threatening the lives of hundreds of patients including newborns.  Israel denies blocking humanitarian relief to Gaza.  On Wednesday, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said heavy rains and flooding had left families living in water-logged tents "clinging on to survival without even the most basic necessities, such as blankets." Reuters

Body of Israeli hostage found in Gaza tunnel.   The body of Yosef AlZayadni, a 53-year-old Israeli Bedouin hostage, was discovered in an underground tunnel in southern Gaza, the Israeli military said Wednesday.  The Israeli army was working to determine if another body recovered is that of his son Hamzah. AlZayadni, father of 19 children, had worked for 17 years at a dairy farm of a kibbutz that was attacked Oct. 7, 2023, and he and three of his children were among 250 people taken hostage. His teenage children, Bilal and Aisha were among 100 hostages released during a brief ceasefire in November 2023. Israel has said that about a third of the remaining 100 hostages are dead, but officials believe as many as half could be dead.  Yosef and Hamzah were thought to be among the living before Wednesday’s announcement.   Associated Press South China Morning Post  Voice of America  

Israeli military restricts media coverage of soldiers to thwart war crimes investigations.  The Israeli military issued new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty to protect the identities of reservists traveling abroad as other countries and human rights groups ramped up war crimes investigations.  The military’s action came after an Israeli reservist vacationing in Brazil had to leave the country abruptly after a Brazilian judge ordered police to investigate him for allegedly committing war crimes while serving in Gaza. Under the new rules, journalists cannot show the full names or faces of soldiers of the rank of colonel and under.  Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian airstrike on Zaporizhzhia kills 13, injures 113. A Russian airstrike on Wednesday targeted an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia, killing 13 and injuring 113. The bombs exploded among crowds, damaging buildings, vehicles, and public transport. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack. “There is nothing more cruel than launching aerial bombs on a city, knowing that ordinary civilians will suffer,” Zelensky said. “Russia must be put under pressure for its terror. The protection of lives in Ukraine must be supported.” Governor Ivan Fedorov declared a day of mourning and highlighted the use of guided bombs in densely populated areas. Emergency services reported extensive destruction, with ongoing aid for victims, including five saved by paramedics. Kyiv Independent Reuters RBC-Ukraine Associated Press RFE/RL Bloomberg

US will send another $500 million in weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. plans to send Ukraine $500 million in weapons from existing stockpiles to bolster Kyiv's position before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, officials said. The announcement on Thursday will coincide with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's final Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, a 50-nation coalition supporting Ukraine. Austin emphasized maintaining momentum and international solidarity. The aid, funded through presidential drawdown authority, aims to deliver munitions by month's end. The U.S. has provided $66.5 billion in military aid since Russia’s invasion, with less than $4 billion remaining, leaving decisions on future support to the incoming administration. Associated Press

Biden set to push new Russia sanctions before Trump era begins. President Joe Biden plans to announce new sanctions targeting Russia's economy this week, besides sending another $500 million in military aid for Ukraine, including air defense missiles and F-16 support equipment. Most promised U.S. weapons have been delivered, bolstering Kyiv’s munitions stockpiles. The U.S. is also monitoring North Korean involvement in Russia’s war and plans further sanctions on Chinese entities supporting Moscow. Biden aides are briefing Trump’s team on current measures against Russia. Reuters

Trump wants to end war in 100 days, incoming peace envoy tells Fox News. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump aims to end Russia's war against Ukraine within 100 days of his inauguration, Keith Kellogg, Trump's choice for special Ukraine peace envoy, told Fox News on Wednesday. Kellogg emphasized Trump’s commitment to safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty while negotiating a resolution acceptable to both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. He criticized Joe Biden's refusal to engage with Putin, labeling it a "mistake." While avoiding specifics, Kellogg hinted at equitable terms and dismissed concerns that Trump would concede to Russia. A prior report suggested Trump might delay Ukraine's NATO membership for 20 years in exchange for arms and peacekeepers. Kyiv Independent

NATO membership is the only credible security guarantee for Ukraine, Finnish foreign minister says. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtone said that NATO membership is “the only credible security guarantee” for Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression. Valtonen, in Kyiv on Wednesday as Finland assumed the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, emphasized the alliance’s collective defense clause. She cited Finland's unexpected NATO accession in 2023 as evidence of changing dynamics, adding, “Three years ago nobody thought Finland would be joining NATO…so here we are, you never know.” Ukraine seeks NATO membership despite resistance from key allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that the absence of NATO membership and concrete security guarantees contributed to Russia’s decision to launch the full-scale invasion. "Putin realized no one would stand up for Ukraine. He thought he could destroy us, but the Ukrainian army proved him wrong," Zelensky said. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russia Doesn’t Hold All the Cards in Ukraine, Pentagon’s Austin Says. Outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking from Ramstein, Germany, emphasized that Russia faces significant challenges despite perceived advantages in its war on Ukraine. “There’s a thought that Russia has the ultimate hand here...but it doesn’t completely dominate this equation,” he said Wednesday. He highlighted Russia’s reliance on Iran, North Korea, and substantial resources to sustain its territorial gains, noting, “Russia will have to invest a lot of land forces to hold it.” Austin defended President Joe Biden's Ukraine strategy, underscoring its role in Ukraine’s survival and countering Russia’s influence globally, including limiting Moscow’s reach in Syria and Africa. Bloomberg

Macron and Starmer will discuss Ukraine as Trump looms. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host French President Emmanuel Macron at Chequers on Thursday to discuss Ukraine, artificial intelligence, economic growth, and migration. Both leaders have strongly supported Ukraine's resistance against Russia's 2022 invasion and aim to maintain support as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war swiftly, prepares for office. Macron has proposed a post-war peacekeeping force for Ukraine. The meeting precedes key events, including a UK-European Union defense summit in February and France's AI Action Summit. Starmer and Macron last met in November. Politico EU

Russia Map Shows Oil Hubs Hit in Dozens of Ukraine Drone Raids. Ukraine has launched over 80 drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and depots, including an attack this week on the Kristall facility near Engels air base, a key site for Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers. These strikes have disrupted Moscow’s oil exports and military logistics, with fires reported in at least 64 attacks. Analysts estimate repair costs for damaged refineries could reach tens of millions of dollars per site, compounded by sanctions limiting access to essential equipment. Ukraine aims to weaken Russia’s war effort by targeting fuel supply chains crucial for military operations. The strikes underscore Kyiv’s strategy to project strength ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Russian officials reported a state of emergency at Engels after the latest attack, which also killed two firefighters. The disruption to Russia’s energy infrastructure highlights the economic and logistical challenges Kyiv’s campaign is creating for Moscow as the war nears its fourth year. Newsweek New York Times Ukrainska Pravda Deutsche Welle CNN

Russian plant fire rages on, 24 hours after Ukrainian attack. A fire at an oil depot near a Russian air base in Engels, linked to a Ukrainian drone attack, has raged for over 24 hours, killing two firefighters. Engels, 730 kilometers southeast of Moscow, declared a state of emergency. The blaze, reportedly targeting a site serving nuclear-capable bombers, followed a mass drone strike. Social media footage showed heavy smoke billowing from the area. Reuters

Ukraine strikes Russian command post in Donetsk Oblast, military reports. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army in Russian-occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine reported on Wednesday. The facility was reportedly used to coordinate attacks on Ukrainian forces and civilians, particularly in Kurakhove, which Russia recently claimed to have captured. The General Staff emphasized minimizing civilian risks during the operation. Located 25 kilometers east of Donetsk, Khartsyzk has been under Russian control since 2014. The extent of the damage and weapon type remains undisclosed. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 19, injure 132 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 19 civilians and injured 132 in the past day, authorities reported on Thursday. An airstrike on Zaporizhzhia killed 13 and injured 113, with 59 hospitalized. Other casualties included four deaths in Kherson Oblast, two in Stepnohirsk, and injuries in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Russia launched 70 drones overnight; 46 were intercepted. Damaged infrastructure included homes, vehicles, and an industrial facility. Kyiv Independent

Russian airstrike against Kherson injures 6, damages kindergarten. Russian forces dropped guided aerial bombs on the city of Kherson on Jan. 9, injuring at least six people, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said. One bomb reportedly hit a house, destroying it. A kindergarten and a business were also reported as damaged. Kyiv Independent

Military deserter, his wife detained in Dnipro terror attack case. Ukrainian authorities arrested a 33-year-old AWOL soldier and his 25-year-old wife for allegedly producing explosives used in a Dec. 14 terrorist attack in Dnipro, which killed one and injured four. Recruited by Russian intelligence via Telegram, the pair built the device and observed the attack before going into hiding. Detained with incriminating evidence, they face terrorism charges and life imprisonment. Russia is accused of orchestrating such attacks to destabilize Ukraine during its full-scale invasion. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it has a new type of river drone to spy on and take out Russian boats. Ukraine has unveiled the Black Widow 2, a compact river drone designed by Kyiv-based Hard Cat to target Russian vessels on rivers like the Dnipro. The one-meter-long drone boasts a top speed of 25 mph, a range of 6.2 miles, and capabilities for reconnaissance, patrolling, and attacking small boats. Successfully tested in rear-area conditions, it is now undergoing combat trials with two Ukrainian brigades. Developed at the military's request, the drone counters Russian motorboats used for supplies and troop rotations. Experts note its potential for defensive operations in narrow waterways and against tactical Russian assets in wetland regions. Business Insider

Britain is developing fast-attack drone boats for Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defense is developing fast, low-observable attack drone boats under Project COOKSON to support Ukraine. These modular vessels, designed for reuse, will feature high-explosive payloads with a range of 30–100 kilometers, hard-kill air defense systems, and endurance for up to 72 hours. They can operate autonomously in Global Navigation Satellite System-denied environments and aim to counter Russian assets in waterways. Production targets include 2–3 vessels per month. Industry insights from a Jan. 22 session will guide procurement, with initial systems expected by late 2025. The initiative bolsters the UK’s role in the Maritime Capability Coalition co-led with Norway. UK Defence Journal

Ukrainian maritime drone destroys Russian helicopters in Black Sea clash. Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels destroyed two Russian helicopters and damaged a third in the Black Sea, reportedly marking the first time an unmanned, maritime drone destroyed an aircraft. Footage showed a Magura V5 drone firing a missile amid heavy fire, with officials identifying the weapon as an R-73 air-to-air missile in a tactic dubbed "SeeDragon." The engagement highlights the growing prominence of innovative, locally developed weaponry in Ukraine and the broader global trend of unmanned surface vessels proving their effectiveness in modern warfare. Axios

Over 12,300 civilians killed since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the UN says. The United Nations reports over 12,300 verified civilian deaths in Ukraine since Russia's 2022 invasion, including 650 children, though the tally is acknowledged as an undercount due to verification challenges. Civilian deaths spiked by 30% in late 2024, with 574 killed between September and November, largely from drones, missiles, and glide bombs. The U.N. documented 35 deaths in Kherson from video-piloted drones and highlighted severe civilian impacts in frontline areas. However, the report excludes casualties in Russia, citing limited access. Ukraine's ambassador called Russia's actions "calculated and cruel," while Russia dismissed the report as biased. Reuters

Slovak government threatens Ukraine with withdrawal of EU membership support. Slovakia's Russia-leaning government, led by Hlas-SD and Prime Minister Robert Fico, has criticized Ukraine for halting Russian gas transit, claiming economic losses and threatening to reconsider support for Ukraine's European Union membership bid. Hlas-SD highlighted Slovakia's aid to Ukraine but demanded "partner-like" actions from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Fico warned of cutting electricity exports to Ukraine and reducing refugee aid, following Kyiv's refusal to extend the gas contract. Pro-EU protests erupted in Slovakia, while Poland and Czechia offered support to mitigate energy challenges. The gas dispute underscores growing tensions as Slovakia aligns more closely with Moscow. Euractiv

Zelensky, Moldova's Sandu discuss Ukrainian coal to ease Transdniestria energy crisis. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Wednesday discussed using Ukrainian coal to alleviate Transdniestria’s energy crisis, which has caused blackouts and heating shortages. Zelensky blamed the crisis on “Russia's attempt to manipulate energy resources” against Moldova's pro-European government. Ukrainian coal could be used to keep a thermal plant operating that provides electricity for the separatist region and also accounts for most of the power needs in government-controlled areas of Moldova. Sandu emphasized finding joint solutions to prevent further humanitarian suffering. Both leaders highlighted their commitment to EU membership as a cornerstone of their policies. Reuters

U.S. Saw an Opportunity While It Pushed to Arm Ukraine. The United States built the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, uniting over 50 nations to arm Ukraine after Russia's 2022 invasion. Initially addressing Kyiv's artillery shortages, the coalition provided $126 billion in military aid, including NATO-standard weapons. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin leveraged alliances with NATO members and non-NATO allies to reshape global arms networks. The group’s meetings highlighted Ukraine's shift from Soviet-era arms to Western systems. With Trump’s incoming administration skeptical of support for Ukraine, the coalition's future leadership remains uncertain. Washington’s efforts also encouraged Russia’s former clients to join NATO’s orbit, showcasing a new model for American power projection. New York Times

The Lloyd void: Ukraine group wrestles with future after Austin leaves. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, formed after Russia's 2022 invasion, has met 25 times and overseen $126 billion in military aid transfers, half from the U.S. With Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stepping down, the group’s future is uncertain. Potential leaders, like the U.K. and Germany, have not committed. Subgroups focused on drones, air defense, and armor may continue independently. NATO officials emphasize the importance of U.S. leadership, with Adm. Rob Bauer stating, “The U.S. continues to be the leader in NATO.” The group’s potential disbandment would significantly undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Politico

Polish defense minister says the next Ramstein meeting may be its last.  Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that Thursday’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting at Ramstein Air Base may be the last in its current format. He suggested the format could change after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, given Trump’s differing approach to U.S. strategy in Ukraine. The meeting will focus on long-term defense needs for Ukraine, including air defense and artillery, while NATO considers assuming more responsibility for logistics and coordination amid shifting U.S. leadership. Kyiv Independent

Garry Kasparov: 'You never hear Russian opposition actually say Ukraine must win.' Garry Kasparov, in an interview with the Kyiv Independent, sharply criticized the Russian opposition for failing to advocate for Ukraine’s victory, emphasizing, “You never hear them say Ukraine must win.” He dismissed claims that the war is solely Vadimir Putin’s, arguing, “It’s not just Putin; it’s a mentality.” Kasparov believes Russia’s transformation requires military defeat and dismantling its imperialist legacy: “The Ukrainian flag must fly over Sevastopol again.” Highlighting Western reluctance, he said, “The surest way to escalate is to show weakness.” Kasparov also called for aiding anti-war Russians to leave, fostering a “Russian Taiwan” as a foundation for a post-Putin future. Kyiv Independent

Putin’s Booming War Economy Poised for Bumpy Landing. Russia’s war-driven economic boom is faltering as inflation, high borrowing costs, and sanctions take their toll. Economist Oleg Vyugin noted, “A relatively good period... is over. High inflation eats away at all that seemingly short-lived success.” The central bank forecasts growth slowing sharply to 0.5% in 2025, down from 3.5%-4% in 2024, despite the government’s efforts to stabilize inflation. Businesses, including major firms like Severstal and Norilsk Nickel, are cutting investments, and sectors like agriculture face rising bankruptcy risks. Economist Sofya Donets predicted 2025 will be “a year of belt-tightening,” with constrained credit and slower growth ahead. Bloomberg

As Russian losses in Ukraine mount, Putin faces a ‘devastating’ demographic time bomb. Russia faces a worsening demographic crisis, exacerbated by its war on Ukraine, with experts warning the population could halve by 2100 from its current estimate of 146 million people. Harley Balzer, an emeritus professor at Georgetown University, highlights the war's societal toll, including post-traumatic stress disorder, addiction, and violence among returning soldiers, creating an environment unconducive to population growth. Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, notes Russia's "demographic straitjacket," citing low life expectancy and declining birth rates, with the total fertility rate falling from 1.8 in 2015 to 1.4 by 2022. Despite Kremlin efforts, including promoting childbirth and restricting abortion, Russia's population remains unsustainable, now worsened by over 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. Russia’s highest single-day losses, 2,200 casualties on December 19, underscore the war's ongoing human cost. Experts argue the conflict impedes societal recovery, with Balzer questioning Russia's viability as a country post-war. As Ukraine faces demographic challenges due to Russia's war, experts describe the situation as a "race to the bottom." Kyiv Independent

French-trained brigade had 'systematic shortcomings,' Ukraine's top general reports to Zelensky. General Mykhailo Drapatyi reported to President Volodymyr Zelensky on systemic issues within Ukraine’s French-trained 155th "Anne of Kyiv" Brigade, deployed near Pokrovsk. Drapatyi acknowledged leadership failures, recruitment mistakes, and inadequate training planning as key problems. He emphasized low efficiency and motivation among mid-level commanders as the biggest challenge. Solutions include recruiting experienced officers, providing additional training, offering a hotline for direct soldier feedback, and deploying psychologists for cohesion. While France fulfilled its training and arms commitments, an investigation revealed 1,700 AWOL cases in the brigade, undermining its intended role as a flagship international partnership project. Kyiv Independent

Kursk: What is Ukraine aiming for with its new advance? Ukraine’s advance into Russia’s Kursk region appears multifaceted, combining military and political motivations. While Kyiv remains silent, experts see the move as a calculated signal to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to underscore Ukraine’s importance and secure continued Western support. The offensive, involving up to three brigades, may aim to break out of encirclement as Ukrainian forces face mounting pressure in Kursk. Analysts also speculate it could disrupt Russian operations, serve as a bargaining chip for upcoming negotiations, or act as a diversion. Despite risks, experts argue the potential political and diplomatic gains outweigh setbacks on other fronts like Donetsk’s Pokrovsk. Deutsche Welle 

Two Ukrainian paratroopers capture 14 Russian troops at once. Two Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th Air Assault Brigade captured 14 Russian soldiers in a daring operation. Supported by drone strikes and comrades’ fire cover, they approached a Russian dugout, threw grenades, and compelled the occupants to surrender. This success replenishes Ukraine's prisoner exchange fund, which is vital for freeing soldiers from Russian captivity. RBC-Ukraine

Broker McGill offers property war reinsurance for Ukraine. Broker McGill and Partners has launched Ukraine's first commercial property war risk reinsurance program since Russia's 2022 invasion. Partnering with local insurer ARX, the program offers up to $50 million per policy, with reinsurance from Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Coverage applies to properties over 100 km from front lines, using data from FortuneGuard to assess risks. McGill aims to address inequities in blanket exclusions, while other organizations back insurance for transit, healthcare, and agriculture in Ukraine. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 8. Ukrainian forces targeted Russia's state-owned Kombinat Kristal oil storage facility near Engels, Saratov Oblast, overnight on Jan. 7-8, causing a large fire that disrupted logistics for the Engels-2 Air Base. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian 8th Combined Arms Army command post in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, used for coordinating operations in Kurakhove. Reports highlighted a Dec. 30 Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike in Kursk Oblast that killed servicemen from Russia's 76th Airborne Division. Russian forces are increasingly deploying drones connected to fiber optic cables in Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, Toretsk, and near Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Vladimir Putin’s wobbly empire gives US a path to stifle Russia’s threats. Peter Doran argues that Vladimir Putin’s 25 years in power have left Russia weakened, with a crumbling economy and strained alliances. Putin’s reliance on oil revenue, military spending, and precarious partnerships, including with China, has created vulnerabilities. He highlights opportunities for the incoming Donald Trump administration to tighten sanctions, especially by reducing the oil price cap to $35 per barrel, cutting off vital cash flow for Russia’s war efforts. Doran emphasizes, “The United States cannot be expected to save Russia from Putin’s legacy of squandered national potential and self-inflicted decline.” New York Post

Opinion: Doing the math on Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine. Alexander J. Motyl critiques the Kremlin's narrative of Russia's unstoppable advances in Ukraine, labeling it as misleading and unsustainable. He highlights that Russia’s territorial gains are minimal—requiring decades to capture Ukraine at the current rate—while incurring catastrophic casualties. Motyl argues that despite immense losses, Ukraine's resilience equates to a strategic draw or modest victory, exposing Russia's vulnerabilities. He attributes Western analysts’ acceptance of Kremlin propaganda to ideological biases, political alliances, and resistance to revising outdated assumptions, concluding that facts and numbers debunk these distorted narratives. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine is determined but tired. William Courtney highlights Ukrainians’ resolve to resist Russian aggression despite fatigue from war. Conversations with key leaders revealed skepticism about negotiations or a ceasefire, as Ukraine prioritizes sovereignty and territorial integrity. Leaders voiced concerns over limited Western support, emphasizing the need for modern weaponry and a shift to a defensive strategy. Ukraine seeks a “just peace” while maintaining unity, democracy, and military strength. Any forced concessions would undermine international law and embolden further aggression. Defense News

Opinion: Russian Assets Are Europe’s Trump Card. Adrian Karatnycky argues that Europe should seize Russia’s $300 billion in frozen reserves to compensate for potential cuts in U.S. aid to Ukraine under President-elect Donald Trump. He highlights confiscation's financial and political feasibility, citing its justification under international law and its potential to sustain Ukraine's defense for years. Such action would send a powerful message to Moscow, deterring aggression and demonstrating Western resolve. Karatnycky emphasizes pairing this measure with easing restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities, allowing deep strikes into Russia, to pressure the Kremlin and support a diplomatic resolution safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty. Foreign Policy

Opinion: A User’s Guide to ‘Who Lost Ukraine?’ Stephen M. Walt explores the likely postwar blame debate over Russia’s war on Ukraine. He outlines nine arguments, including critiques of NATO expansion, Western failure to negotiate seriously with Russia, and inadequate support for Ukraine. He also examines claims that Ukraine’s strategic missteps or Western realpolitik contributed to the war’s challenges. Walt emphasizes that assigning blame may reflect political agendas rather than objective analysis but argues that understanding these perspectives is crucial for learning lessons and avoiding similar failures in the future. Foreign Policy 

THE AMERICAS

U.S. must strengthen ties to the Global South to offset China-Russia influence, partnership. A panel hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations has underscored the need for the U.S. to fortify ties with the Global South and bolster its military presence in the Indo-Pacific to counter the mounting partnership between China and Russia. A report accompanying the discussion described this alliance as the greatest threat to American interests since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The panelists, including security expert Richard Fontaine, called for a more proactive U.S. trade and foreign policy to counter China and Russia’s influence in regions like the Global South. Fontaine highlighted Beijing's growing economic clout through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and Russia's push to bypass the U.S. dollar via BRICS alliances and argued that the U.S. must offer more compelling trade and strategic partnerships to reduce countries' alignment with China and Russia. The panel also recommended that Washington significantly increase its military presence in Northeast Asia and accelerate arms sales to self-governing Taiwan. However, uncertainty looms over how President-elect Donald Trump will handle these issues, as his unconventional policies, such as tariff threats, have unsettled allies and trading partners. Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership during his first term hindered U.S. trade leadership, and the future of Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework under Trump is uncertain. The report warned that a lack of U.S. commitment to Taiwan or the Indo-Pacific could embolden adversaries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea to complicate American defense operations globally. Regional powers like India are also closely observing U.S. actions to assess its long-term strategy against China’s growing military and economic power in East Asia. South China Morning Post 

Trump’s NATO Vision Spells Trouble for the Alliance. President-elect Donald Trump’s call for NATO allies to raise military spending to 5% of GDP and his threats to seize territories like Canada and Greenland have sparked backlash from European leaders. Trump’s demands, far above the current 2% target, come amid concerns he might reduce U.S. support for NATO or Ukraine. Critics argue such proposals could undermine NATO’s deterrence capabilities and embolden adversaries like Russia. Trump’s confrontational stance contrasts with NATO leaders’ push for efficient spending and joint procurement. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that violating borders “applies to every country,” reflecting widespread incomprehension of Trump’s remarks among allies. Wall Street Journal

“Not going to happen:” Blinken addresses Trump’s drive to claim Greenland. Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the world shouldn’t “waste a lot of time” worrying about President-elect Donald Trump's claim that the US. should annex Greenland. Trump declined to rule out the use of military force to make that happen, saying. “We need Greenland for national security purposes. “The idea expressed about Greenland is obviously not a good one,” Blinken said during a stop in Paris for meetings. “Maybe more important, it’s obviously one that’s not going to happen. So, we probably shouldn’t waste a lot of time talking about it.”. Associated Press  

Trump trolls Canadians, and they’re over it.  Canadians have stopped laughing at President-elect Donald Trump’s jibes that their country should become the 51st state. Dominic LeBlanc, the country’s point person for U.S.-Canada relations, said Trump was smiling when he first made the comment during a dinner at Mar-a-Lago with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in late November. “The joke is over,” said LeBlanc. “It’s a way for him, I think, to sow confusion, to agitate people, to create chaos knowing this will never happen.” Trump's tariffs would be a disaster for US markets, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said. “The timing is awful for sure,” said Liberal lawmaker Judy Sgro of the leadership change. “But we will do what we have to do to ensure that Canada stands strong.” Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller also dismissed Trump’s comments. “There is no chance of us becoming the 51st state. I think that this is beneath a president of the United States,” Miller said. “I said a few weeks ago that this whole thing was like a South Park episode. Associated Press  Wall Street Journal Daily Beast 

Trump’s claims about Panama Canal draw denials, and applause. Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, a Panamanian who runs the Panama Canal Authority, denied President-elect Donald Trump’s claims that China controls the canal. “China has no involvement whatsoever in our operations,” he said. A Chinese company has operated two ports on either end of the canal for decades, but the canal itself is run by the Panama Canal Authority, a government body whose board is named by the Panamanian government. He said that Trump’s suggestion that U.S. ships get preferential rates “will lead to chaos. “Rules are rules and there are no exceptions,” Vásquez Morales said. “We cannot discriminate for the Chinese, or the Americans, or anyone else. This will violate the neutrality treaty; international law and it will lead to chaos.” At his news conference, Trump said Panama was seeking $3 billion to repair the canal and charging American shipping and U.S. Navy vessels higher fees for passage.  Vásquez Morales responded that Panama hadn’t requested any U.S. funds to improve the canal, the authority finances repairs through its own revenues and doesn’t charge U.S. ships higher rates. U.S. Navy vessels get priority passage in accordance with the treaty. But Trump’s push has some fans in Congress.  As soon as Thursday, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) is expected to introduce the Panama Canal Repurchase Act, a bill that would authorize the president to purchase the Panama Canal and put it under U.S. control.  The Hill  Wall Street Journal 

Biden scraps Italy visit, his last foreign trip as president, as fires decimate California. President Joe Biden canceled his final overseas trip to Italy to focus on California's devastating wildfires, which have killed at least five, destroyed hundreds of homes, and forced thousands to evacuate. After meeting emergency personnel in Los Angeles and declaring a federal disaster, Biden pledged full federal support, including air tankers, helicopters, and fire engines. The trip, intended to include meetings with Pope Francis and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was postponed as Biden prioritizes the wildfire response. Associated Press The Hill Barron's Reuters 

Mexican president trolls Trump, suggests US renamed 'Mexican America.' Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum humorously proposed renaming North America "Mexican America" in response to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's plan to rename the Gulf of Mexico the "Gulf of America." Sheinbaum dismissed Trump's claim that Mexico is controlled by cartels, asserting, "In Mexico, the people rule." While humor marked her initial response, Sheinbaum has issued firm warnings on trade and immigration policies, vowing to counter Trump’s tariffs with reciprocal measures and cooperate on migration under specific conditions, signaling a mix of defiance and pragmatism in her approach to Trump’s administration. France 24 Associated Press New York Times The Guardian 

Japanese crime leader pleads guilty in New York to trafficking nuclear materials, narcotics.  Takeshi Ebisawa, a leader of the Yakusa, a powerful international crime syndicate based in Japan, pleaded guilty Wednesday in Manhattan federal court to conspiring to traffic uranium and plutonium from Myanmar in the belief that Iran would use the radioactive materials for nuclear weapons. The charges grew out of a long-running Drug Enforcement Administration undercover investigation into large-scale narcotics and weapons trafficking in the Golden Triangle. According to court papers, Ebisawa made a deal with a DEA undercover agent posing as an arms trafficker to buy U.S.-made surface-to-air missiles and other heavy-duty weaponry taken from U.S. military bases in Afghanistan. The weapons were to be bartered to ethnic armed groups in Burma in exchange for Golden Triangle heroin and methamphetamine, which the Yakusa would sell in New York.  In early 2020, Ebisawa told the DEA undercover agent that the leader of an ethnic insurgent group in Myanmar was offering for sale two metric tons of Thorium-232 and 100 kilograms of low-enriched uranium in yellowcake, plus potentially five tons more of nuclear materials mined by the insurgents. He provided samples. DEA sent them to a U.S. government lab that confirmed they contained uranium, thorium, and weapons-grade plutonium.  The DEA undercover agent lured Ebisawa to New York in April 2022 and arrested him. His guilty plea Wednesday came after extensive negotiations. NBC News  Associated Press             Justice Department   Southern District of New York   Reuters  Kyodo News  

Former professor sues American university after China espionage charges are overturned. Feng "Franklin" Tao, a former University of Kansas (KU) chemistry professor wrongfully accused of being a Chinese spy, has filed a lawsuit against the university, seeking reinstatement and compensation for the damage to his reputation, career, and finances. Tao alleges that KU collaborated with the FBI and the Department of Justice to target him, participating in an unlawful investigation that included surveillance, a surprise search of his lab and home, and fabricated evidence. The lawsuit accuses KU of discriminatory and unethical actions, claiming the university engaged in "fear mongering and racist witch hunting" under the now-defunct "China Initiative," a program launched during Donald Trump's administration to counter Chinese economic espionage, but criticized for racial bias and its impact on Chinese American academics. Tao was one of many scholars affected, with some losing their jobs. The program was scrapped in 2022 under the Biden’s administration. Tao was arrested in 2019, jailed for a week, and later convicted in 2022 of wire fraud and false statements about his ties to Fuzhou University. After his conviction, KU fired him. However, a U.S. District Court overturned the fraud charges, and an appeals court in 2024 acquitted him of the remaining charges. South China Morning Post The Independent Bloomberg  

Group of veterans, officials call on Trump to preserve resettling at-risk Afghans who aided U.S. In a letter examined by Reuters, hundreds of veterans, in addition to current and former U.S. officials, urged incoming President Donald Trump to maintain special visa and resettlement programs for Afghans who worked with the U.S. during its 20-year war against the Taliban. The letter, organized by #AfghanEvac, calls on Trump and Congress to continue funding these programs and to approve an additional 50,000 Special Immigration Visas (SIVs) to address the current cap of 50,500, which is set to run out later this year. The letter warns against abandoning Afghan allies who risked their lives to support the U.S. during the conflict. Advocates fear that Trump, influenced by Stephen Miller's hardline immigration policies, may curtail the programs through bureaucratic barriers. Meanwhile, incoming National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, a former U.S. special forces officer, has voiced strong support for these initiatives. Since the Taliban claimed Kabul in 2021, over 183,000 at-risk Afghans have been resettled in the U.S., but many remain vulnerable to persecution, with over 20,000 SIV applications still being processed. Reuters 

The last of Guantanamo’s prisoners may be nearing freedom.  Or not.   President Joe Biden’s aides are trying to resolve the fate of the 15 remaining men incarcerated at Guantanamo for involvement in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The administration is trying to block a plea deal for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, and two co-defendants. The Biden administration is talking with the Taliban in hopes of bringing home three Americans believed held in Afghanistan since 2022.  They are Ryan Corbett, abducted while on a business trip; George Glezmann, an airline mechanic, and Mahmood Shah Habibi, an Afghan American who worked as a contractor for a Kabul-based telecommunications company.  Associated Press

Venezuela’s political newcomer Edmundo González says it’s his turn to rule. Edmundo González, widely recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate president-elect, prepares to challenge Nicolás Maduro, whose government claimed victory in last year’s election without providing evidence. González’s campaign shared verified tallies showing he won with twice the votes of Maduro. Exiled in Spain after threats of arrest, González vowed to return for Friday’s swearing-in, stating, “We continue,” even after his son-in-law’s kidnapping, allegedly by Maduro’s regime. Leveraging his diplomatic experience, González has rallied international support, meeting leaders like U.S. President Joe Biden. Despite intimidation, González insists, “Our fight is peaceful but strong,” urging Venezuelans to reject repression and restore democracy. González has not said how he plans to return or wrest power from Maduro, whose ruling party controls all aspects of government. Associated Press

Venezuela’s military could desert Maduro after Syrian ally’s fall, opposition leader says. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado warned that Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power is increasingly tenuous as military support wanes, drawing parallels to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Speaking from hiding, she said, “The only thing Maduro has left is repression, so if we break that repression, the system will collapse.” Machado urged mass protests against Maduro’s Friday inauguration following a disputed election, claiming it’s a “trial by fire” for democracies. She criticized foreign companies like Chevron for “propping up” the regime, emphasizing, “There is no justification for those who do business with this regime.” International allies, including Joe Biden, back the opposition. Financial Times

EUROPE

‘Make Greenland Great Again’? Not Like That, Greenlanders Say. Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland has left its residents bewildered and alarmed. Greenlanders like Christian Ulloriaq Jeppesen express pride in their unique homeland, with Jeppesen stating, “Greenland is amazing, it’s beautiful, it’s the most wonderful country in the world. And it is a country fighting for independence, not a piece of property you can buy.” Trump’s suggestion of military force has prompted international condemnation. Amid Greenland’s struggle, residents fear becoming pawns in games among Denmark, the U.S., and other powers. New York Times

What Trump Wants with Greenland. President-elect Donald Trump’s push to annex Greenland underscores its growing geopolitical importance, with its vast rare-earth deposits, oil, gas reserves, and strategic Arctic position attracting U.S., Chinese, and Russian interest. Greenlanders and Danish officials firmly reject the notion of U.S. control, with Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede emphasizing, “Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland.” Trump’s comments have drawn criticism from European leaders. While the U.S. seeks an expanded presence on the island, Greenland focuses on gaining independence from Denmark, asserting, “We will not accept being colonized again.” Wall Street Journal

Scholz Calls on the US to Respect the Inviolability of Borders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s expansionist remarks, which included threats to annex Canada, seize Greenland, and impose tariffs on Denmark. Scholz emphasized the "inviolability of borders" as a cornerstone of international order, drawing parallels to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a call with European leaders, including Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Poland’s Donald Tusk, a consensus emerged on respecting sovereignty. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged Europe to strengthen its military and competitiveness. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen acknowledged U.S. security concerns but advocated dialogue, underscoring NATO’s role in maintaining transatlantic unity. Bloomberg Associated Press 

EU dodges questions on Trump’s mooted invasion of Greenland. The European Commission avoided direct criticism of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s comments on potentially using military force to seize Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. While affirming that “sovereignty of states has to be respected,” Commission spokesperson Anitta Hipper deflected further questions, describing the scenario as “very theoretical.” Journalists pressed on the Commission’s inaction, comparing Trump’s remarks to the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Greenland, classified as a European Union-associated overseas territory, could invoke Article 42(7) of the Treaty if threatened militarily. Politico EU

ANALYSIS–A Far-Right Government in Austria Would Be a Jolt, but Not Unexpected. Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl, is poised to take power, marking a dramatic shift in European politics. The FPÖ’s platform, rooted in anti-immigrant rhetoric, opposition to European Union norms, and nostalgia for nationalist ideologies, has gained traction amid discontent over inflation, immigration, and COVID policies. Kickl has invoked controversial Nazi-era phrases and proposed extreme measures, such as suspending asylum rights and stricter border controls, promising to build "Fortress Austria." New York Times

In Austria’s Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán. Herbert Kickl, leader of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), is poised to become chancellor, drawing comparisons to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Like Orbán, Kickl advocates closer ties with Russia, opposes sanctions, and seeks to cut aid to Ukraine, aligning his policies with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s call for a “peace policy.” His anti-migration agenda includes suspending asylum rights and deporting refugees, actions that violate EU law and echo Austria’s Nazi-era rhetoric. Kickl has also pledged to dismantle the European Green Deal and undermine European Union integration, positioning Austria as a potential ally to Hungary in obstructing EU initiatives. His rise highlights a growing far-right wave across Europe, worrying Brussels and neighboring Germany, where far-right parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD) see Kickl as a model. Politico EU

Fico says he secured gas supply for Slovakia in talks with Putin. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Wednesday he secured Slovakia's gas supply during a December meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deal follows Ukraine's halt of Russian gas transit on Jan. 1, which Fico claims cost Slovakia €500 million in transit fees and €1 billion in higher gas prices. Accusing Kyiv of harming Slovakia, Fico has threatened to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Fico for opening a "second energy front" against Ukraine. Reuters

Detained Belarusian activist reappears after being held incommunicado for over 700 days. Belarusian opposition activist Viktar Babaryka, imprisoned and held incommunicado for over 700 days, appeared in a video posted by a pro-government blogger on Wednesday, just weeks before a presidential election is expected to extend the rule of Alexander Lukashenko. 61-year-old Babaryka, who is serving a 14-year sentence after being barred from running in the 2020 election, appeared visibly emaciated and wearing a political prisoner tag. His resurfacing comes amid allegations of beatings, inhumane conditions, and forced disappearances of political prisoners in Belarus. Over 1,200 political prisoners remain detained in the nation, with at least seven reported deaths in custody since the regime’s 2020 crackdown on dissent. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in exile, demanded transparency on other incommunicado prisoners. Critics view this video release as a calculated move by Lukashenko's government to manage international scrutiny. Associated Press 

Opinion: When the Far Right Wins in Hitler’s Birthplace. Marc Champion argues that Austria’s far-right Freedom Party, poised to lead the government under Herbert Kickl, reflects broader global challenges to liberal democracy. While comparisons to 1930s fascism are hyperbolic, Champion stresses vigilance in protecting democratic institutions. Austria's postwar failure to confront its Nazi past and scandals involving centrist parties left fertile ground for populism. Champion highlights that “what matters is that Austria’s imperfect democracy should survive a Freedom Party government” and points to examples like Poland and Hungary to show the risks and resilience of democratic systems under far-right governments. Repairing institutional damage, however, remains a struggle. Bloomberg

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. soldiers needed in Syria to keep “a foot on the throat” of the Islamic State, says Pentagon chief. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has underscored the need to maintain American troops in Syria to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State (IS), following the lightning ouster of Bashar Assad's government. Austin highlighted the critical role of U.S. forces in securing detention camps in the country, which hold 8,000-10,000 IS fighters and their families, including 2,000 highly dangerous individuals. Without this presence, he warned, the group could reemerge as a significant threat. He added that “we still have some work to do in terms of keeping a foot on the throat of ISIS.” The U.S. maintains about 2,000 troops in Syria, working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against IS, though Turkey considers the SDF to be linked to the PKK, which it deems a terror group. Austin noted the uncertainty surrounding Syria's transitional government and the future management of IS detention camps but stressed the importance of protecting U.S. interests and continuing operations to suppress IS activity. Associated Press 

With Stakes High, Lebanese Lawmakers to Try Again to Choose a President. Lebanon’s parliament is set to vote Thursday to potentially end a two-year presidential vacancy, with Army Chief Joseph Aoun emerging as the frontrunner. Aoun, backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, gained momentum after Hezbollah ally Suleiman Frangieh withdrew and endorsed him. The vote follows a fragile ceasefire with Israel and amid a dire economic crisis. While analysts see a chance for Aoun’s election, sectarian divides and procedural hurdles remain obstacles to ending Lebanon’s political gridlock and securing vital international aid. Associated Press Reuters New York Times France 24  

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan and China spar over damage to undersea cable. Taiwan and China have clashed over suspicions that a Chinese-linked ship damaged an undersea communications cable off the island’s northern coast last week, raising concerns about potential "grey zone" activities by Beijing. Taiwan's coast guard suspects the ship, registered in Cameroon and Tanzania but owned by a Hong Kong company, was involved, though bad weather prevented an investigation, and no direct evidence has been provided. China dismissed the allegations as baseless, calling the damage a "common maritime accident" and accusing Taipei of exaggerating the "grey zone threat." Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council defended its investigation, citing past incidents of cable damage involving Chinese ships and adding, "internationally, mainland Chinese ships flying flags of convenience have the mark of evil about them.” Reuters

Xi Jinping silences Chinese economist who challenged the credibility of GDP numbers. Chinese economist Gao Shanwen, a leading figure and chief economist at SDIC Securities, has faced backlash and disciplinary action since questioning his country’s official GDP growth figures at a Washington forum last month. Gao speculated that China's real growth rate in recent years may have been around 2%, far below the official 5% figure given by authorities, and doubted Beijing's ability to effectively stimulate the economy. His comments reportedly angered President Xi Jinping, who swiftly ordered an investigation and banned Gao from public speaking. This incident underscores Beijing’s sensitivity to criticism amid mounting economic challenges, including a property crisis, high debt levels, and industrial overcapacity. The government has intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary, with officials urging economists and analysts to promote confidence in government policies. These actions further obscure the true state of China’s economy. The crackdown on Gao and other critics triggers uncertainty for investors seeking reliable insights into China’s economy, which remains critical to Xi's long-term goals of sustained 5% growth. Doubts persist about the feasibility of these targets, given ongoing economic struggles and policy inconsistencies. Wall Street Journal

North Korea is increasingly better prepared for war, fighting against Ukraine, cautions U.S. The United States has warned that North Korea is gaining significant military expertise and technology by sending more than 12,000 troops to Europe, to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine. On Wednesday, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the U.N., Dorothy Camille Shea, stated that this collaboration is enhancing Pyongyang's war capabilities and positioning it to expand global weapons sales and military training. North Korea justified its recent missile test as part of its defense strategy, while criticizing U.S. double standards regarding self-defense. Russia dismissed allegations that it has shared military technology with North Korea as “baseless conjecture,” and accused the U.S., South Korea, and Japan of provoking Pyongyang with military drills. Seoul condemned the involvement of North Korean troops, describing them as "slaves" sent to support Kim Jong Un’s regime and acquire advanced military technology. Despite ongoing U.N. sanctions against the isolated nation since 2006, Russia's veto power makes additional measures unlikely. Reuters Firstpost 

Seoul, Washington formally sign MOU on principles regarding nuclear exports, cooperation. South Korea and the United States have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to strengthen cooperation on nuclear exports and energy, emphasizing the peaceful use of nuclear energy with high standards for safety, security, and nonproliferation. The agreement was signed by officials from both countries' energy and foreign ministries on Wednesday, following an initial draft in November. The MOU comes after a dispute flared between South Korea's Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) and U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric over nuclear reactor exports. Yonhap News Agency 

South Korea to establish interagency task force on forging ties with U.S. in ship industry. South Korea's industry ministry on Thursday announced plans to launch an interagency task force to enhance cooperation with the U.S. in the shipbuilding industry, following hints from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump about the expansion of bilateral ties in the sector. The initiative will focus on fostering collaboration and competitiveness, including developing hydrogen carriers and ammonia-powered ships by the second half of this year. The government also aims to strengthen the shipbuilding industry's material, parts, and equipment sectors while promoting research and development. South Korea's shipbuilding exports grew 17.6% in 2024, reaching $25.63 billion. The ministry plans to work closely with shipbuilding companies to maintain the industry's global competitiveness. Yonhap News Agency 

Impeached Yoon’s lawyers blast arrest efforts as nation gears up for clashes. Despite a new arrest warrant for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, issued by the Seoul Western District Court, the impeached leader’s lawyers continue to argue that the anti-corruption agency lacks authority to investigate rebellion charges. They question the court’s impartiality and have demanded a formal arrest warrant from the Seoul Central District Court, though they remain vague about compliance. The Corruption Investigation Office and police are planning a more forceful attempt to detain Yoon, following a failed effort last week that ended in a five-hour standoff with presidential security forces. Security at Yoon’s residence has been reinforced with barbed wire and vehicle blockades, raising fears about a potential clash. Acting President Choi Sang-mok has called for restraint to avoid violence between government agencies. Yoon’s impeachment by the opposition-dominated assembly on December 14 accuses him of rebellion, with the Constitutional Court now deliberating whether to formally remove him or reinstate his presidency. Meanwhile, relentless protests by both supporters and critics of Yoon continue near his residence, adding to the political turmoil. Associated Press 

Indian, Afghan foreign ministers meet again, despite lack of official diplomatic ties. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Afghanistan's acting Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in the UAE on Wednesday to discuss practical issues like humanitarian aid, development, and trade. India reaffirmed its readiness to support Afghanistan's urgent needs and explored the idea of using Iran's Chabahar port for Afghan Indian trade. The meeting also evaluated India's ongoing humanitarian assistance, health sector support, refugee rehabilitation, and potential sports collaborations. This marks the second meeting between the two nations without formal diplomatic ties since the Taliban's shock takeover in 2021, which no country has officially recognized. The discussions occurred amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Associated Press VOA  

Aid convoy bound for remote Pakistani district reaches destination after extended blockade, sectarian violence. Aid trucks transporting essential supplies, including food, medicines, and tents, finally reached northwestern Pakistan’s Kurram district on Wednesday after a key highway had been closed for over three months due to violent clashes between rival Shiite and Sunni tribes. The bloodshed, which resulted in the deaths of at least 130 people, flared again in November when gunmen ambushed a convoy, killing 52 people, mostly Shiites. The convoy had been delayed since Saturday due to security concerns after gunmen attacked government vehicles. The aid delivery comes in the wake of a recent ceasefire brokered with the help of tribal elders, providing relief to the besieged population who had suffered from disrupted access to basic necessities like food, medicine, and education. Kurram, a predominantly Shiite, remote region, has a history of sectarian violence, with tensions exacerbated by disputes over land. Associated Press 

AFRICA

19 killed at Chad’s presidential palace after gunmen attempt to storm complex. Armed men attempted to storm Chad's presidential complex in N'Djamena on Monday, leading to a deadly battle that resulted in the deaths of one security personnel and 18 attackers, reportedly members of the Boko Haram group. The assault, which was carried out by a 24-member armed commando unit, was repelled by the presidential guard. The Chadian government later declared the situation under control, and the “destabilization attempt” successfully “put down.” Roads to the complex were blocked, and tanks and armed police were deployed in the capital.  The attack comes amidst ongoing challenges for Chad, including frequent incidents of Boko Haram violence in the Lake Chad region, and accusations of interference in neighboring Sudan's conflict. Chad, which is under military rule, recently ended its military accord with France, which is withdrawing its last Sahel bases in a marked shift in regional alliances. The incident also follows a disputed election that opposition groups claim was fraudulent, consolidating President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno’s power after he succeeded his late father in 2021. Despite being an oil producer, Chad ranks among the world's least developed nations. France 24 South China Morning Post Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

U.N. says M23 rebels in the Congo have flooded the minerals market with illegal Rwanda exports. In a report released on Wednesday, the U.N. revealed that rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exported at least 150 metric tons of coltan to Rwanda in 2024, marking the largest contamination of the Great Lakes Region's mineral supply chain in a decade. The M23 rebel group, which is allegedly backed by Rwanda and claims that it’s fighting for the rights of Congolese Tutsis, seized control of the Rubaya area, a major coltan producer, and monopolized its export to Rwanda, mixing conflict-sourced minerals with legitimate Rwandan production. The rebels established a mining ministry in the occupied territory, collected $800,000 per month in taxes, and enforced forced labor to facilitate transport. They doubled miners' wages to maintain production while controlling sales to authorized traders. The situation raises concerns for tech manufacturers such as Apple, who face scrutiny to avoid using conflict minerals. Apple denies allegations of sourcing such minerals and insists its suppliers comply with conflict-free requirements. Reuters Bloomberg

Violent clash in Nigeria’s northeast leaves 6 soldiers, 34 extremist rebels dead. The Nigerian military announced on Wednesday that at least six soldiers and 34 Islamic extremists were killed in a clash in the country’s northeastern Borno state after rebels carried out a surprise attack on troops in Sabon Gari village, a deserted area in the Damboa council. The attackers, using motorcycles and gun trucks, retaliated against the recent killing of their commander by Nigerian forces, according to a military spokesperson. Borno has been the epicenter of violence since Boko Haram's insurgency began in 2009, aiming to impose its interpretation of Shariah law. The conflict has caused over 35,000 deaths and displaced 2.6 million people. Despite military claims that the group has been “degraded,” deadly ambushes and bombings persist, hindered by challenges like cross-border extremist operations and limited intelligence. Boko Haram is infamous for its 2014 abduction of 276 schoolgirls in Chibok. Associated Press Reuters

China, Congo draw up a road map for Xi Jinping’s US$50 billion Africa investment pledge. China and the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) have outlined a plan and timetable to allocate President Xi Jinping’s US$50 billion commitment to African infrastructure projects over the next three years. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced this during his visit to Brazzaville, emphasizing China’s intent to support Africa’s development and modernization. Measures include zero tariffs on goods from Africa’s least developed nations, enhanced trade, economic and diplomatic ties, military cooperation, and major connectivity projects. A ministerial meeting will be held to implement outcomes from the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. Congo-Brazzaville, co-chair of FOCAC, will host the 2027 forum.  South China Morning Post

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Israel’s Defense Industry Booms on Foreign Demand and War at Home. Israel's defense industry is experiencing record-breaking growth, driven by foreign demand for air-defense systems like the Iron Dome and Arrow, alongside domestic needs amid ongoing war. Its top three defense firms account for 70% of exports, with backlogs reaching $63 billion in 2024, a 25% rise. Countries like Slovakia praise Israel’s battlefield-tested technology, while analysts highlight Israel's focus on rapid delivery over complexity. Challenges include meeting rising demand while supplying Israel’s military. Innovations like the laser-powered Iron Beam promise cost-effective solutions, further boosting market potential. Government investment and recruitment are expanding production capacity to maintain Israel’s defense edge globally. Wall Street Journal

Biden to Further Limit Nvidia AI Chip Exports in Final Push. The Biden administration plans to expand AI chip export restrictions in its final days, targeting countries like China and Russia to control access to advanced technologies. The new rules create three tiers: unrestricted access for allies, limited computing power for most nations, and near-total bans for adversaries. Companies can bypass some restrictions by meeting U.S. security and human rights standards. Nvidia criticized the policy as a threat to U.S. economic leadership, while supporters argue it leverages American AI dominance to shape global standards. The restrictions also cover AI model weights, with tight controls in Tier 3 nations like China. Bloomberg

Cyber director urges new administration to strengthen ONCD authorities – National Cyber Director Harry Coker urged the Trump administration to continue the effort to require federal agencies to establish cybersecurity priorities in their annual budget requests.  Speaking at an event sponsored by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), Coker said, “I would love for the incoming administration, or any administration, to recognize the priority of cybersecurity.”  In 2024, the ONCD and Office of Management and Budget created digital security standards for federal agencies to incorporate into their FY2026 budgets, a move intended to give the White House the opportunity to review agency cyber plans and engage with federal departments on any related concerns.  Coker also noted the limits of the ONCD’s authorities, commenting “there are sometimes when ONCD ought to be able to go — not go it alone — but initiate and lead through that process. That changes depending upon what a president wants to do… and that is one area that I think should be improved upon.”  Coker also called for the harmonization of federal cybersecurity regulations, which he said would “decrease the cost of doing business and increase cybersecurity.”  Looking ahead, Coker said “you’ve got to get past the sound bites and make that happen. Some folks are opposed to regulation and put ‘regulation’ in the title that’s going to raise the hackles of some individuals.”  The Record   CyberScoop

Anthropic seeking $2 billion in new investment to raise valuation to $60 billion – The AI startup Anthropic is in talks described as “advanced” to raise $2 billion to raise its valuation to $60 billion, more than tripling its value of a year ago.  Lightspeed Venture Partners is leading the funding round, which if successful would make Anthropic the fifth-most valuable startup, following SpaceX, OpenAI, Stripe, and Databricks.  Amazon is a primary investor in Anthropic having committed an additional $4 billion in November for a total investment of $8 billion since 2023.  Anthropic products are used in data centers operated by Amazon and Google, which has also invested billions of dollars in the startup.  Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg

Dual Chinese ‘next generation’ combat aircraft underscore air supremacy race with U.S. – In the wake of last month’s release of low-quality photographs depicting what are said to be two new “sixth generation” Chinese combat aircraft, attention is focusing on the race between Beijing and the U.S. to field the world’s most advanced fighters.  The successors to the existing U.S. and Chinese leading aircraft — the F-22 and J-20 – reportedly will boast enhanced stealth characteristics and much improved networking, computing, and sensing capabilities.  Clayton Swope, a senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said "analysts are only speculating that the two advanced aircraft seen in [China] in late December would be classified as sixth-generation jets.  But the aircraft clearly exhibit sophisticated, cutting-edge designs."  Bill Sweetman, a former aerospace industry executive, said that “all-aspect stealth” is a logical next step for combat aircraft while noting that capability “is hard to do, and the result gets large and expensive."   Meanwhile, the South China Morning Post, citing Chinese military experts, reports that the smaller of the two recently photographed Chinese aircraft probably will be the country’s leading carrier-based fighter.  A larger, three-engine aircraft recently spotted over Chengdu, according to Chinese analysts, likely “prioritizes stealth capabilities, long range, and high payload capacity.”  Chinese military commentator Du Wenlong said that the designs of the two sixth-generation jets reflect the requirements of different branches of the armed forces.  Newsweek   South China Morning Post   Axios

Ukrainian hackers claim responsibility for crippling cyberattack on Russian ISP – A hacking group named the Ukrainian Cyber Alliance (UCA) has claimed responsibility for the cyberattack on Monday that crippled the network of Nodex, a Russian internet provider.  Nodex confirmed the attack, posting online that “the network has been destroyed. We are raising it from backup copies.”  Cloudfare, which monitors internet traffic, said the Russian regional ISP began on January 6 and continues to indicate no resumption of internet traffic.  The UCA posted screenshots of key Nodex servers and claimed in a Telegram post that Nodex “was completely looted and wiped.  Data exfiltrated, while the empty equipment without backups was left to them.”  The Record reports that the UCA was formed in 2016 and has targeted Russian entities with cyberattacks following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  In St. Petersburg, the region served by Nodex, the company said work to restore its services is continuing.  It stated that priority will be given to recovering telephony and call center operations.  TechCrunch   The Record

SecDef approves Cyber Command restructuring with possible review by Trump team — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reportedly has approved a restructuring of U.S. Cyber Command following an internal assessment named “Cyber Command 2.0.”  The head of the Cyber Command, Gen. Timothy Haugh, in December described the plan as an initiative “really to take us to the next step.”  However, sources cited by The Record say the plan’s final recommendations fall short of goals envisioned in initial proposals, focusing on changes to how the command already operates.  With Austin’s approval, the next step is delivery to the Pentagon of an implementation and resourcing plan within 280 days.  That planning effort will be led by Haugh and Michael Sulmeyer, the defense secretary’s principal cyber advisor.  With Sulmeyer expected to leave at the end of the Biden administration, that task will fall to his deputy, Ashley Manning.  All of this, of course, is subject to changes a new team at the Pentagon under the Trump administration may want to make.  This could include a reexamination of Cyber Command 2.0 or scrapping the plan altogether.  The Pentagon and Cyber Command declined to comment for this story.  The Record

Nvidia CEO’s ‘long wait’ forecast dampens quantum stock performance – Comments by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang concerning a far horizon forecast for quantum computing put a damper on quantum stocks Wednesday.  Huang said on Tuesday that projections for practical quantum applications should look to a 15–20-year horizon:  "If you kind of said 15 years... that'd probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it's probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it."  The impact was immediate — Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing, and IonQ all fell more than 40 percent.  Ivana Delevska, investment chief of Spear Invest, which holds Rigetti and IonQ shares, said “"the 15 to 20-year timeline seems very realistic…that is roughly what it took Nvidia to develop accelerated computing."  In part thanks to a quantum breakthrough by Google in December, the four quantum computing stocks rose at least threefold last year, outperforming the twofold rise in Nvidia shares.  Richard Shannon, a Craig-Hallum analyst, noted that "there will be considerable government-related revenues in the next few years," adding that "If investors are worried about minimal revenues that will require dilution, they are missing a key part of the equation."  Reuters

Technology sector group asks Commerce to scrap planned global AI export rule – The Information Technology Industry Council (ITI), a group that represents Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, among others, called on the Biden administration to scrap a planned Commerce Department rule that would control global access to AI chips.  The council said the restrictions, which could be issued as early as Friday, would threaten U.S. AI leadership.  According to Reuters, the Commerce plan aims to keep AI from propelling Chinese military technology advances.  The ITI lambasted the administration’s “insistence” on publishing the rule less than two weeks from the inauguration of the new president.   ITI CEO Jason Oxman wrote to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warning that "rushing a consequential and complex rule to completion could have significant adverse consequences."  Other sector representatives weighed in as well.  Oracle executive Ken Glueck said the rule, known as the "Export Control Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion," "will go down as one of the most destructive to ever hit the U.S. technology industry."  Reuters

Japanese chipmaker embarks on high-stakes plan to produce advanced 2nm chips – Rapidus, a Japanese chipmaker, plans to provide a cutting-edge 2nm prototype chip to semiconductor giant Broadcom, by this summer.  Rapidus expects to start production of the 2nm prototype chip in April, with mass production to begin in 2027.  Industry sources say that Broadcom will outsource production of its designed semiconductors to Rapidus after evaluating the performance of the 2nm prototype chip.  The alliance with Broadcom will allow Rapidus to supply chips to its partner’s customers.  The Japanese chipmaker has been seeking to broaden its customer base and reports that it is in talks with 30-40 companies concerning semiconductor manufacturing contracts.  The Rapidus fab on the northern island of Hokkaido is scheduled to begin operations in April and is seeking $25.3 billion in funding before mass production begins, the bulk of which is expected from government subsidies.  Observers have noted the high stakes of the Rapidus plan for advanced chips, warning that even slight delays could pose serious difficulties for the company.  On-time test production of the 2nm chip in April would be an encouraging signal that Japan, which has been absent from advanced chip production for over a decade, is back as a competitor.  Nikkei   Nikkei

Italian defense minister denies deal with Starlink to provide secure satellite services – Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, speaking before the country’s parliament on Wednesday, said Italy has not signed any contracts with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, adding that the defense ministry has not approved any such deal.  A reported plan to conclude a $1.6 billion contract with Starlink for secure satellite communications for the Italian government and military has been sharply criticized by opposition parties.  Crosetto told parliament that "there is ... a need to study and evaluate every solution technically capable of providing the aforementioned capabilities," a reference to encrypted communications systems.  Nicola Fratoianni, an opposition legislator, said that Crosetto’s remarks were insufficient because "Minister Crosetto overlooked the fundamental question, you can't entrust national security to a private monopolist.”  Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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