Report for Thursday, January 30, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, January 30, 2025

China Fueling Russian War Machine, New Investigation Reveals

Passenger plane, military helicopter collide in midair near DC’s Reagan National Airport

A mysterious meeting with Syrian president is at the center of spy chief’s nomination fight

Syrian president disbands Assad’s army and armed groups, including his own

Donald Trump’s plan for space lasers to destroy nuclear weapons

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Ex-Prime Minister: Trump Holds Keys to ‘Future of Ukraine.’ In an interview with The Cipher Brief, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said that Donald Trump holds the “future of Ukraine, the global order, and the strength of the United States” in his hands. He dismissed Trump’s 100-day peace plan as unrealistic, arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in a fair deal but aims to “absorb Ukraine and reshape the global order.” Yatsenyuk warned against any territorial concessions and called for stronger U.S. sanctions, increased energy production to cut Russian revenues, and unwavering NATO unity. He urged Trump to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s partners and push Congress to codify long-term U.S. military support for Ukraine. When asked about Trump’s potential meeting with Putin, Yatsenyuk cautioned that “Putin wants to outplay Trump. I hope he won’t buy it.” He framed the war as a global battle against autocracy, warning that if Ukraine falls, “dictators and pariahs” will be emboldened. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: The AI Challenge for the U.S. Military. Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, former head of the Pentagon’s AI division, warns that the U.S. military must shift from fascination with large language models to practical AI implementation at scale. Speaking to The Cipher Brief, he stressed that China’s DeepSeek AI and Alibaba’s advances show Beijing circumventing U.S. chip restrictions, prompting security concerns. Groen criticized the Pentagon’s “tribal” culture, saying AI’s success depends on data integration across military branches. He cautioned against overconfidence, noting that while Chinese AI may not match U.S. capabilities, it could still be “good enough” for military dominance. He called for urgent cultural and structural changes, saying the U.S. must stop fixating on policy debates and start real-world AI deployments. Groen also highlighted China’s rigid, rehearsed military exercises, suggesting a lack of operational flexibility. He warned that ignoring these challenges could leave U.S. forces unprepared in a high-speed AI-driven conflict, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

China Fueling Russian War Machine, RFE/RL Investigation Reveals. A new investigation by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has revealed that Chinese companies are supplying Russia with critical minerals—gallium, germanium, and antimony—essential for producing microchips and advanced weaponry. Despite Western sanctions, these materials continue flowing into Russia’s military-industrial complex, including Rostec, which provides nearly 80% of weapons used in Ukraine. At least a third of these Chinese suppliers are partially state-owned, contradicting Beijing’s denials of aiding Moscow’s war efforts. Russian manufacturers linked to nuclear and missile programs, such as the Urals Optical and Mechanical Plant, receive these materials. Some shipments have also involved a Russian subsidiary of Japan’s Ferrotec, which sold silicon wafers for Russian military microelectronics. China remains Russia’s only foreign supplier of gallium and germanium, reinforcing its hold on the war economy. The findings highlight the limitations of Western sanctions and the growing reliance of Russia on China to sustain its war on Ukraine. RFE/RL

EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine deal. European Union officials are debating whether to resume Russian pipeline gas imports as part of a potential settlement to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, sparking outrage among Kyiv’s allies. Advocates argue it could lower energy costs and incentivize Moscow to negotiate, but critics see it as capitulation. The idea, reportedly backed by Germany and Hungary, has infuriated officials who spent years reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy. The EU aims to eliminate the bloc’s energy system of all Russian fossil fuels by 2027. The EU’s energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, will present a plan for hitting that goal in March. “It’s madness,” said one official. The discussion coincides with Donald Trump’s push for a quick resolution and his threats of EU tariffs unless more American LNG is purchased. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that diplomacy is preferable but did not comment on the gas debate. The EU aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuels by 2027, yet energy costs remain a concern. Hungary and Slovakia are pressing the EU to pressure Ukraine to restart transit, underscoring divisions within Europe Financial Times

Romania's presidential candidate Georgescu calls Ukraine 'fictional state,' suggests annexing territory. Far-right Romanian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu has openly called Ukraine a “fictional state” and declared that its division is “100% inevitable.” In an interview, he suggested Romania should claim parts of Ukraine, while Poland would take Lviv, echoing Russian propaganda about a postwar partition. Georgescu, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and the transit of its grain through Romania, remains the frontrunner for May’s rescheduled election despite his first-round victory being annulled over alleged Russian interference. “The world is changing. Borders will change,” he said, listing Ukrainian regions Romania should annex. His rise highlights growing ultranationalist and pro-Russian sentiments in Romania. Meanwhile, the current Romanian government has remained firmly pro-Ukrainian, supplying military aid and training Ukrainian pilots. Georgescu also claimed U.S. President Donald Trump would cut a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, relieving Romania of any obligation to support Ukraine. His remarks intensify concerns over Russian influence in Eastern Europe. Kyiv Independent  Ukrainska Pravda

Chasiv Yar Falls to Russian Forces After Nearly a Year of Intense Fighting. Russian forces have seized Chasiv Yar after nearly a year of intense fighting, according to five independent Ukrainian and European sources cited by The Moscow Times. While neither military has confirmed its fall, Ukrainian troops have been pushed to the outskirts. The city, a strategic stronghold in Donetsk Oblast, had been under constant assault since April 2024. Russian forces gradually tightened their grip, breaching defenses by mid-October, reaching the center in November, and making final advances in December. Only 304 residents remained in mid-November from a pre-war population of 12,000. With Chasiv Yar’s fall, Russia moves closer to capturing the rest of the region, including Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. The situation pressures Ukraine’s defenses, exacerbated by manpower shortages and dwindling Western aid. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to broker an end to the war within his first 100 days in office, putting future Western support for Kyiv in question. Moscow Times

Ukrainian Drones Flew 500 Miles And, In A Single Strike, Damaged 5% Of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity. Ukraine’s escalating strikes on Russian oil refineries reached a new level with a drone attack early Wednesday on the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which processes 5% of Russia’s total output. The latest strike, part of a broader campaign to weaken Russia’s war economy, follows a series of refinery attacks this month that may have cut Russian petroleum production by more than 10%. The success of Ukraine’s long-range drone program, using modified sport planes and other low-cost platforms, underscores its ability to inflict economic damage with minimal expense. The attacks coincide with uncertainty over U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, who has yet to define his stance on sanctions targeting Russian energy exports. While fresh U.S. restrictions under Joe Biden’s outgoing administration have started discouraging Chinese and Indian buyers, Ukraine’s military vows to continue targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure regardless of Washington’s position, viewing it as a key lever in disrupting Moscow’s ability to sustain its war effort. Forbes

NATO is on track to send Kyiv over $40 billion in 2025. NATO is set to provide Ukraine with $41.6 billion in security aid by the end of 2025, fulfilling a pledge made at the 2024 Washington summit. NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska confirmed progress on Wednesday during a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels. Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, discussing battlefield developments and Ukraine’s reforms. Rutte emphasized maintaining support for Kyiv, especially amid U.S. policy uncertainty under Donald Trump. NATO has taken over some aid coordination roles previously handled by Washington, while Ukraine remains focused on NATO membership as a security priority. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s military fights fires on many fronts amid battlefield setbacks. Ukraine faces mounting challenges as battlefield losses, corruption scandals, recruitment struggles, and uncertainty over U.S. support deepen concerns over the war’s trajectory. Russia has made gains in Donetsk, flanked Pokrovsk, and reclaimed half of the land Ukraine seized in Kursk last summer. While Ukrainian drones continue to strike deep into Russia, morale is shaken by corruption arrests, including two generals and a colonel detained for failures in Kharkiv’s defense and the military’s chief psychiatrist accused of illicit enrichment. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is also under scrutiny for a procurement dispute, prompting G7 diplomats to urge a resolution. Meanwhile, speculation over a leaked “100-day peace plan” linked to Donald Trump fuels uncertainty. Military recruitment remains dire, with 1,700 troops from a key brigade reportedly absent without leave. President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted soldiers lack rest, warning, “If half the army went home, Putin would kill us all.” Kyiv struggles to stabilize its defenses as war fatigue sets in. Irish Times

Ukraine anti-graft agency investigates defense minister amid procurement dispute. Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has launched an investigation into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov amid a power struggle over arms procurement. The probe, requested by the Anti-Corruption Action Centre, will examine whether Umerov abused his authority by refusing to renew the contract of Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) chief Maryna Bezrukova. Umerov has criticized the agency for failing to deliver results, stating, “Despite the publicized scale of procurement, our defenders on the frontlines have not experienced its tangible impact.” The dispute comes as President Donald Trump reviews U.S. support for Ukraine, raising concerns among Western partners. The DPA, established to improve accountability, has been praised by anti-graft advocates, but Umerov accuses it of political maneuvering. A deputy minister overseeing procurement has already been dismissed. Bezrukova warned that the turmoil “has effectively spoiled a year of our work,” potentially undermining Kyiv’s ability to secure weapons at a critical stage in the war. Reuters

Western officials warn Ukraine over weapons procurement dispute. Western officials have warned Ukraine that the dispute between Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and procurement chief Maryna Bezrukova could undermine trust and disrupt weapons supplies. Umerov overruled a board decision to extend Bezrukova’s contract, citing poor performance, but lawmakers and anti-corruption watchdogs called his move illegal. The G7 ambassadors urged Kyiv to resolve the issue “expeditiously.” Associated Press

American fighters are dying in Ukraine in growing numbers. American fighters in Ukraine are dying in increasing numbers, with over 20 missing in action and at least five bodies unaccounted for from the battlefield in the past six months. Many foreign volunteers are sent to high-risk frontline missions where their military experience is critical. The process of repatriation of fallen Americans is arduous, with some remains trapped in Russian-occupied areas, requiring prolonged negotiations. Families struggle with uncertainty, legal limbo, and harassment from pro-Russian trolls. Former U.S. Marine Corey Nawrocki’s body was paraded on Russian social media before being returned. Volunteers like Zachary Ford and Cedric Hamm died in intense combat, often facing overwhelming Russian fire. Retrieval efforts rely on DNA identification and court rulings. Advocates say these volunteers play a crucial role in Ukraine’s defense, even as President Donald Trump dismisses the war. The rising toll underscores the deepening involvement of foreign fighters in Ukraine’s struggle against Russian forces. CNN

8 killed, 26 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least eight people and injured 26 in the past day, including a child and three medical workers, authorities said Thursday. Russia launched 81 Shahed-type drones overnight, with 37 shot down and 39 lost in the air. A drone strike on a residential building in Sumy killed four and injured nine, including a 7-year-old. In Donetsk Oblast, attacks killed one and injured four. A Russian FPV drone in Kupiansk injured three medical workers. In Kherson Oblast, three were killed and 10 injured. Strikes in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa Oblasts caused structural damage but no casualties. Kyiv Independent

13 injured, including children, in Russian attack on Kramatorsk. A Russian attack on Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, injured at least 13 people, including two children, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported Thursday. The victims include an 8-year-old boy and a 7-year-old girl. Authorities are assessing the damage. Filashkin did not specify the weapon used. Kramatorsk, a key district center 20 kilometers from the front line, remains a frequent target of Russian strikes as Moscow continues its offensive in the region. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine reels from ‘worst-case scenario’ suspension of US foreign aid. The Trump administration’s abrupt freeze on U.S. development aid to Ukraine has thrown hundreds of projects into disarray, leaving NGOs scrambling for funding. Veteran support hotlines, educational programs, and independent media have been forced to suspend operations. “This was the worst-case scenario,” said George Chewning of US-Ukraine Veterans Bridge, warning that thousands of newly demobilized soldiers could soon need reintegration support. Local officials fear critical infrastructure projects could collapse, with Mykolaiv’s deputy mayor asking, “What will we do if Russia attacks our energy again tomorrow?” Journalists reliant on USAID funding face layoffs, while many aid workers have already been locked out of their systems. President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged to find emergency funds but admitted Ukraine’s $38 billion budget deficit limits options. As aid groups plead for alternative funding, the sudden freeze has fueled uncertainty, with many unsure if their projects—and Ukraine’s fragile wartime economy—will survive past the 90-day review. The Guardian Reuters

Russian army recruitment centers in Moscow see a five-fold drop in applicants, media reports. Recruitment at Moscow’s military centers has dropped five-fold since last summer, according to independent Russian outlet Verstka. At its peak, up to 250 volunteers enlisted daily, driven by a $19,200 signing bonus and Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kursk. Now, only about 40 people sign up daily, with many recruits being foreigners or Russians facing criminal charges. Meanwhile, Russia suffers 1,500-1,750 daily casualties as it struggles for gains in eastern Ukraine. Despite advances near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk, NATO doubts Russia can achieve a breakthrough due to its overstretched resources. Kyiv Independent

North Korean troops in Russia ‘retrained after heavy losses.’ North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Kursk have suffered heavy losses and are undergoing “error correction” training to improve tactics, according to Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation. Kyiv claims 3,000-4,000 of the estimated 11,000-12,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia have been injured, with around 300 killed. Despite their mixed battlefield performance, North Korea remains a key arms supplier to Russia, providing artillery systems and over 50% of ammunition in some areas. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un visited a nuclear weapons facility, emphasizing expansion amid “inevitable” conflict. The Times

Ukraine Seizes $50 Million of Russian Aluminum Tycoon Deripaska’s Raw Materials. Ukraine has seized $50.3 million worth of raw materials belonging to Russian aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced Wednesday. Nearly 500,000 metric tons of bauxite and alumina stored at the Mykolaiv Alumina Plant—nationalized after Russia’s invasion—were confiscated. The materials were originally produced in Ukraine before February 2022. Ukrainian authorities blocked their shipment in early 2023, linking Deripaska’s assets to defense production for Russian Iskander missiles and drones. Despite facing Western sanctions, Deripaska has criticized the Kremlin’s war, though mainly from an economic perspective. Ukraine has accused him of financing Russia’s war effort. Moscow Times

Slovakia summons Ukrainian ambassador over gas transit feud. Slovakia summoned Ukraine’s ambassador Wednesday as tensions over gas transit escalated. Slovak Foreign Minister Jurai Blanár accused Kyiv of interfering in Slovakia’s affairs after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Prime Minister Robert Fico for choosing Russian gas over U.S. or other suppliers. “Fico chooses Moscow over America… this is his mistake,” Zelensky said. Ukraine’s foreign ministry accused Fico of being “poisoned by Russian propaganda.” Fico, in turn, called Zelensky an “enemy” of Slovakia. Slovakia and Hungary sought to extend Russian gas transit via Ukraine after the deal expired on Jan. 1, but Kyiv refused. Politico EU

ANALYSIS–What can the history of frozen conflicts tell us about Ukraine’s future? The history of frozen conflicts suggests a bleak future if Ukraine is forced into a premature ceasefire. From Korea’s unresolved war to Kosovo’s ongoing tensions, fragile peace deals often leave the threat of renewed violence. Russia has long used frozen conflicts to maintain influence, as seen in Transnistria, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. With President Donald Trump pushing for a quick end to the war, analysts fear Ukraine may be left in limbo, vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Trump’s apparent focus on claiming credit rather than ensuring security for Ukraine raises concerns. European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, warn that a rushed ceasefire could merely set the stage for another war. Ukraine’s experience with the failed Minsk agreements reinforces this skepticism. Without firm security guarantees, any ceasefire risks becoming a temporary pause, allowing Russia to regroup before striking again—much like past conflicts that resumed after ill-fated diplomatic settlements. The Times

Ukraine and US diplomatic chiefs invited to next EU ministers meeting. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha have been invited to the European Union foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Feb. 12, marking what could be Kyiv’s first official contact with the Trump administration. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas extended the invitation to Rubio, seeking clarity on Washington’s stance on Ukraine. Kyiv is eager to discuss Trump’s plans to end Russia’s war, as U.S. officials have spoken publicly but not engaged diplomatically. Rubio has acknowledged that negotiations will require compromises, but Ukraine insists any deal must secure favorable terms. Politico EU

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 29. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Ukraine's defense depends on Western military aid and suggested the war could end in two months if aid stops. Putin’s strategy hinges on the belief that the West will abandon Ukraine. Putin asserted he will not recognize any peace deal with Ukraine unless Kyiv rescinds its 2022 decree banning talks with him. By rejecting the Ukrainian government's legitimacy, Putin is laying the groundwork to justify violating any future peace agreements. Putin is attempting to pressure Donald Trump into exclusive negotiations, pushing a framework that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Kstovo and an arsenal in Tver Oblast on the night of Jan. 28-29. Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik as the Southern Grouping of Forces commander. Volunteer recruitment rates in Moscow have dropped sharply as Russians become increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, while Russian forces made gains in several directions, including Lyman and Chasiv Yar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine Needs a Cease-Fire Now. Iuliia Mendel, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s former press secretary, argues that Ukraine must consider a cease-fire as the war drains the country’s population, economy, and resilience. While President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on total victory, Mendel notes that 38% of Ukrainians already support territorial concessions for peace. She describes the daily horrors of Russian drone strikes, dwindling resources, and mass displacement, warning that continued attrition weakens Ukraine. A cease-fire, she contends, is not surrender but a chance to fortify defenses, rebuild institutions, and prevent further devastation. “We need more than weapons,” she writes, urging pragmatism over idealized war narratives to secure Ukraine’s long-term survival. Time 

Opinion: Trump must call Putin’s bluff on Ukraine talks. Daniel Kochis argues that Donald Trump should reject Vladimir Putin’s push for negotiations on Ukraine. Putin’s offer, he contends, is a trap designed to strip Ukraine of security guarantees while weakening NATO. Russia’s economy is struggling with inflation, labor shortages, and declining industrial capacity, compounded by Ukrainian strikes on military infrastructure. Kochis highlights that Russia has lost over 800,000 troops and is increasingly reliant on North Korean soldiers. Meanwhile, Moscow’s ability to project power abroad is collapsing, as seen in Syria. Kochis concludes that by maintaining aid to Ukraine, the West can force Putin into a weaker position and expose Russia’s fragile state. Kyiv Independent

Opinion:  If You Think the U.S. Will Abandon Ukraine Now, You Don't Know Donald Trump. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian argue that Donald Trump’s evolving stance on Russia and Ukraine reflects his pragmatic leadership style rather than ideological inconsistency. They highlight three key traits: Trump avoids associating with “losers,” favors a divide-and-conquer strategy, and follows economic incentives. With Russia’s economy faltering and Putin appearing weakened, Trump now sees him as China’s puppet rather than a strong ally. The authors suggest Trump’s shifting rhetoric could lead to increased U.S. pressure on Russia, potentially delivering Ukraine a victory. Understanding Trump’s mindset is key to predicting his future foreign policy moves. Newsweek

Opinion: Can increased energy sector sanctions pressure Putin into peace talks? ​​Aura Sabadus argues that Donald Trump is leveraging Russia’s economic vulnerabilities, particularly in its energy sector, to pressure Vladimir Putin into peace talks. With the U.S. tightening sanctions on Russian oil and gas, key buyers like India are already blocking payments, and Russian crude exports could shrink. Additional restrictions could cost Moscow up to $24 billion this year, further straining its war economy. Trump has also lifted Biden-era limits on U.S. LNG exports, potentially undercutting Russian gas sales to Europe. Sabadus suggests that expanding sanctions with European Union and UK coordination could push Putin toward negotiations to end the war. Atlantic Council

THE AMERICAS

Passenger plane, military helicopter collide in midair over the Potomac near Washington’s Reagan National Airport.    An American Airlines airliner carrying 60 passengers and four crew members that had departed from Wichita, Kansas, collided with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter from Fort Belvoir near Reagan National Airport around 9 p.m. Wednesday evening.   News shows played a video of the collision, showing the Blackhawk moving toward the passenger plane as it was on a landing path, then a fireball as both aircraft met, exploded and fell in pieces into the Potomac River.  As of midnight, police had pulled multiple bodies from the water, the Post reported.  CNN reported that the Blackhawk was manned by three U.S. Army soldiers on a training mission. The Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement that “a PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet collided in midair with a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter while on approach to Runway 33 at Reagan Washington National Airport around 9 p.m. local time.” PSA was operating as Flight 5342 for American Airlines.  The Army, FAA and National Transportation Safety Board have launched investigations. Washington Post Reuters FAA CNN  Reuters

Rubio to take up Trump's Panama gambit, migration crusade in Latin America visit. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit Latin America, focusing on migration and countering Chinese influence. His trip follows Donald Trump’s aggressive policy shifts, including threats to reclaim the Panama Canal, deportation flights using military aircraft, and sanctions on Colombia over migration disputes. Rubio, a longtime hawk on Cuba and Venezuela, aims to negotiate deportation deals with Central American nations to ease repatriation issues. He will also address China’s growing presence in the Panama Canal, warning it could become a “choke point” in a conflict. Trump’s rhetoric on the canal and Greenland has sparked accusations of modern imperialism, with critics warning it could embolden Russia and China. Panama denies ceding control of the canal to Beijing, but U.S. lawmakers remain alarmed. Analysts suggest Rubio may take a more diplomatic approach, playing “good cop” to Trump’s hardline stance while still pushing Washington’s agenda in the region. Rubio leaves Friday and his itinerary includes visits to Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic during the first week of February. Reuters

A mysterious meeting with Syrian president is at the center of spy chief’s nomination fight. Donald Trump’s nomination of Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence has revived scrutiny of her 2017 meeting with Syria’s then-President Bashar Assad. Gabbard, who secretly visited Assad before Trump’s first term, claimed the trip was a fact-finding mission to prevent further U.S. intervention. However, her lack of transparency, ties to Assad-linked Lebanese American activists, and shifting political stance—from progressive Democrat to Trump ally—fuel concerns. Critics argue her rhetoric aligns with Russian positions, while supporters defend her as a realist skeptical of U.S. foreign interventions. Senate Republicans remain cautious, with lawmakers seeking clarity on her Assad meeting ahead of confirmation. Gabbard served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2021 as a Democrat representing Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District. Associated Press 

Trump commerce nominee says Canada, Mexico can avoid tariffs, vows stronger China tech curbs. Donald Trump’s Commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, told a Senate confirmation hearing Wednesday that Canada and Mexico could avoid 25% tariffs by swiftly curbing fentanyl flows into the U.S. He also pledged tougher restrictions on China’s AI technology access, accusing Chinese startup DeepSeek of misappropriating U.S. innovations. Lutnick advocated for across-the-board tariffs to restore “reciprocity” in trade and supported Trump's proposed 10% universal import duty. He declined to commit to honoring prior semiconductor grants, aligning with Trump’s freeze on federal aid. Lutnick also backed increased U.S. tariffs on steel and semiconductors and called for better U.S. access to Canada’s dairy market. He will oversee trade policy and the Commerce Department’s vast portfolio, including export controls and economic data. While Canada’s foreign minister welcomed dialogue, she warned of retaliatory measures if tariffs proceed. Lutnick’s remarks echoed Trump’s stance on trade, emphasizing protectionist policies to counter perceived unfair treatment by global partners. Reuters 

Trump demands preparation of facility at Guantanamo Bay for 30,000 migrants. President Donald Trump has signed a memorandum ordering the federal government to expand detention facilities at the U.S. Naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to house tens of thousands of migrants, particularly those labeled as “high-priority criminal aliens.” Trump claimed this move would immediately double detention capacity, though officials dispute the availability of 30,000 beds. The initiative aligns with Trump’s broader immigration crackdown, including signing the Laken Riley Act, which mandates detention for undocumented migrants charged with certain crimes. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would oversee the facility’s management, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem suggested it could be used for the "worst of the worst" offenders. Guantanamo Bay already has a migrant-processing center, historically used to house Haitian migrants in times of crisis, but officials warn it is not equipped for such large numbers. One American official said it would be necessary to bring in “military staff” to care for a large number of people. The Cuban government condemned the plan, calling it an act of "brutality" and criticizing Washington for using occupied Cuban territory for mass migrant detention. CNN The Hill Reuters Associated Press The Guardian BBC 

Trump rescinds deportation protections for 600,000 Venezuelans. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Wednesday announced that the Trump administration has revoked Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 600,000 Venezuelans, putting many at risk of deportation within months. This decision reverses an extension granted by the Biden administration, which would have protected Venezuelans for another 18 months. The change is part of Trump’s broader effort to tighten immigration policies and conduct mass deportations. Noem defended the move, arguing that TPS had been extended unfairly. Advocates, however, warn of increased fear and uncertainty among Venezuelan immigrants; many, like journalist Caren Añez, fear returning due to political persecution. Venezuelans currently under TPS risk losing work authorization and also face deportation as protections now expire in April and September, unless Noem intervenes. However, deportations to Venezuela are complicated due to Washington’s lack of diplomatic relations with Caracas. The National TPS Alliance plans to challenge the decision in court. TPS, established in 1990, protects immigrants from countries affected by crises like war or natural disasters. Besides Venezuelans, the Biden administration had also extended protections for Salvadorans, Ukrainians, and Sudanese, but Noem has not indicated whether their statuses will be affected. Associated Press New York Times Reuters NBC 

Venezuela’s exiled leader asks Trump not to cut deportation deal with Maduro. Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González, recognized by the U.S. as Venezuela’s president-elect, urged the Trump administration not to negotiate a deportation deal with Nicolás Maduro, warning it could legitimize the regime. Instead, he suggested deportees be sent to a third country. Trump has vowed mass deportations but faces logistical challenges as Maduro demands concessions in exchange for accepting returnees. González, backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, argues that U.S. policy should prioritize removing Maduro. He calls on Venezuelans abroad to prepare for a return, emphasizing their role in rebuilding Venezuela’s economy once democracy is restored. Washington Post

Haiti’s transition leader says general elections planned for November. Leslie Voltaire, president of Haiti's Transition Council, revealed on Wednesday that the country’s long-delayed general elections are set for around November 15, 2025, with the goal of transferring power to an elected government by February 7, 2026. Haiti has not held elections since 2016 and has lacked elected representatives since January 2023 due to escalating gang violence. Armed gangs now control much of the capital and key agricultural regions, resulting in mass displacement of over 1 million people and severe food insecurity. Security concerns remain a major obstacle to holding free and fair elections, and Haiti’s judicial system is largely paralyzed. Some politicians have proposed including Viv Ansanm, a gang coalition, in political negotiations. Meanwhile, the current administration faces corruption allegations. During a European tour, Voltaire met with French President Emmanuel Macron, who pledged support for improving security and combating drug trafficking. Haiti, a former French colony, had paid a controversial “debt” to France for over a century, which activists claim hindered its development. Reuters

Trump administration targets Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, as New York prosecutors indict 10 alleged members. The Trump administration has launched immigration raids targeting Tren de Aragua, a violent Venezuelan criminal gang that originated in a prison and has expanded across South America and into the United States. As part of his immigration crackdown, Trump signed an executive order on January 20, recommending that the State Department designate Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization, alongside MS-13 and Mexican drug cartels. Tren de Aragua engages in human trafficking, extortion, drug smuggling, and violent crimes. The Biden administration previously classified it as a significant transnational criminal organization in July. Federal agents recently arrested suspected gang members in New York City and Atlanta, while prosecutors in New York indicted 10 associates on gun trafficking charges this week. Despite its growing presence, some experts believe Tren de Aragua’s influence in the U.S. is still developing and lacks the coordination seen in its Latin American operations. CNN Washington Post New York Post 

EUROPE

European Council president says Denmark's sovereignty is an 'essential issue' for the EU. European Council President Antonio Costa reaffirmed Denmark’s sovereignty as an “essential issue” for the European Union amid renewed U.S. interest in Greenland. Donald Trump has claimed the Arctic Island is crucial to U.S. security and suggested Denmark should relinquish control, even hinting at military or economic pressure. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas dismissed any negotiations on Greenland. Meanwhile, NATO and Denmark agreed to strengthen Arctic defenses, with Copenhagen pledging $2 billion in additional spending. Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede insisted, “Its people should decide their own future,” rejecting Trump’s push for U.S. influence over the semi-autonomous territory. Reuters

The West’s Arctic Defenses Rely on Some Sled Dogs and Aging Ships in Greenland. Denmark’s outdated Arctic defenses in Greenland have raised concerns about the island’s security, with President Donald Trump arguing that the U.S. should buy it for national defense. Denmark’s naval fleet in Greenland is aging, with some warships stripped of key systems, and its military presence consists of just seven ships, 150 personnel, and a small dogsled unit. The U.S. maintains a missile-warning base in northwest Greenland but warns of blind spots on the island’s east coast. In response to pressure, Denmark announced a $1.9 billion upgrade, replacing four frigates and enhancing surveillance. “We have neglected for many years to make the necessary investments in ships and in aircraft that will help monitor our kingdom, and that is what we are now trying to do something about,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said. However, Trump dismissed these efforts, highlighting Russia’s and China’s Arctic activities. Greenland’s strategic position makes it a key NATO defense point. With growing geopolitical tensions and Arctic ice melting, experts warn that NATO and the U.S. must step up defenses to counter Russian and Chinese advances in the region. Wall Street Journal

‘We’re all having to catch up’: NATO scrambles for drones that can survive the Arctic. NATO is scrambling to develop Arctic-capable drones as Russia and China increase military activity in the region. Extreme cold drains batteries and causes icing, making drone operations challenging. While the U.S. has invested in long-range Arctic surveillance drones, NATO countries are rushing to acquire winter-proof models, with Finland leading the way. Russia has a head start, deploying Arctic-capable drones since 2014, including armed patrols along the Northern Sea Route. The U.S. is also considering mass-produced “kamikaze” drones despite concerns over environmental impact. Norway, Canada, and Denmark are investing in new drone fleets, while private companies like Ubiq Aerospace are working on anti-icing technology. NATO’s slow response to Arctic drone warfare has left it playing catch-up with Russia and Ukraine, which have refined drone tactics on the battlefield. The urgency to adapt is rising as Arctic tensions escalate, with NATO boosting surveillance and planning long-term military investments in the region. Reuters

Trump Threats Risk Stretching Europe’s Fragile Unity to Breaking Point. The European Union is bracing for a trade fight with President Donald Trump, who has signaled sweeping tariffs on European exports. European leaders, including Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron, are rallying to maintain unity, fearing Trump will exploit divisions as he did during Brexit. The European Commission has prepared retaliatory tariffs, expecting Trump to target steel, aluminum, and tech regulations. The timing is poor for the EU, with Germany and France facing political instability and populists like Hungary’s Viktor Orban disrupting consensus. A looming deadline in March could reignite past tariff disputes while tech giants like Apple and Google face EU regulatory crackdowns. Analysts warn that a 10% U.S. tariff could shrink European exports by 30%, jeopardizing up to 1.5% of GDP. Some EU officials hope for negotiations, but skepticism remains about averting a confrontation. Trump’s approach to trade and tech rules could severely strain transatlantic ties. Bloomberg

Europe ‘Must Fix’ Weaknesses to Compete Globally, European Commission President Says. On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the Competitiveness Compass, a plan to strengthen the European Union’s economy against global rivals like China and the U.S. She emphasized, “Europe has everything it needs to succeed... but we must fix our weaknesses.” Based on recommendations from former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the strategy aims to boost industry, reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers, and accelerate innovation. Von der Leyen urged rapid action, warning, “The world is not waiting for us.” Key measures include an EU Cloud and AI Development Act to support AI gigafactories and expand AI adoption beyond the current 13% of companies. Wall Street Journal

France, Germany and others urge the EU Commission to protect elections from foreign interference. France, Germany, and 10 other European Union countries have urged the European Commission to use its Digital Services Act (DSA) powers to protect elections from foreign interference. In a letter, ministers called for a dedicated EU body to counter manipulation, citing threats from Russia, China, and others. Germany, facing elections on Feb. 23, has warned of Russian espionage. Poland and Romania have also raised concerns. The DSA allows the EU to fine major platforms like X, Facebook, and TikTok for failing to curb harmful content. The letter demands urgent action to safeguard upcoming European elections from destabilizing foreign influence. Reuters  

Chinese online influence operation called for the overthrow of Spain's government, Graphika report says. A China-linked influence campaign attempted to incite the overthrow of Spain’s government following the October floods in Valencia, which killed over 200 people, according to a new report by U.S. analysis firm Graphika. The operation, known as Spamouflage and reportedly tied to Beijing, impersonated the Madrid-based NGO Safeguard Defenders on platforms like X, Facebook, and TikTok, spreading messages critical of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Valencia Governor Carlos Mazón. This marks the first known instance of Spamouflage explicitly calling for a government’s removal. The campaign exploited existing public anger, which had already led to violent protests against Sánchez. The operation aligns with broader foreign interference threats in Europe, prompting France, Germany, and 10 other EU countries to urge the European Commission to act under the Digital Services Act to counter election-related manipulation. Officials warn that such efforts—mainly from China and Russia—threaten European stability as key elections approach. Reuters Politico Graphika report

German parliament backs resolution on migration with far-right votes. Germany’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution to restrict migration with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), breaking a longstanding political taboo. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU pushed for tighter border controls following a fatal stabbing by an Afghan asylum seeker, but his reliance on AfD votes provoked fierce criticism. Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the move, warning it shattered Germany’s post-war consensus against working with extremists. Religious leaders and migrant advocates also decried the shift, calling it dangerous for democracy and social cohesion. Merz defended his approach, arguing necessary policies shouldn’t be dismissed based on who supports them. The move could complicate coalition-building after Germany’s Feb. 23 election, with Scholz suggesting it signals a future CDU-AfD alliance. Polls show the CDU/CSU dropping to 28%, while the AfD gains at 21%, reflecting shifting political dynamics as migration dominates the national debate. Reuters

Germany approves weapons worth about $2.6 billion. Germany’s parliament approved €2.5 billion in weapons and equipment orders before the Feb. 23 snap election. The package includes part of a €1.8 billion Bundeswehr communication system, €417 million in infantry gear, and €100 million for anti-tank arms. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government initiated the spending after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, using a €100 billion off-budget fund. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the purchases important. Lawmakers also approved €4.1 billion in state guarantees for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems to secure a deal for three submarines for Argentina, including spare parts and training. Bloomberg Reuters 

Turkey detains journalists and replaces elected mayor amid crackdown on opposition. Turkish authorities have detained investigative journalist Baris Pehlivan and four colleagues from Halk TV, with two later released under police reporting conditions. The detentions followed a Halk TV broadcast revealing alleged court bias against opposition mayors. Meanwhile, the government removed Sofya Alagas, an elected pro-Kurdish mayor, replacing her with a state appointee, citing terrorism-related charges. Alagas is the eighth pro-Kurdish mayor ousted since March. Critics view the crackdown as retaliation for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party’s local election losses and fear it signals a broader suppression of opposition voices. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a potential Erdogan challenger, is under investigation and faces a political ban if his conviction for insulting election officials is upheld. Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the arrests as politically motivated, while Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc insisted journalists were not targeted for their work, claiming press freedom remains intact in Turkey. Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Syrian president disbands Assad’s army and armed groups, including his own.  Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who declared himself president, disbanded the national army, all opposition parties and all armed groups, including his own, as he led a national transition from the rule of overthrown dictator Bashar al-Assad.  Sharaa led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, a U.S.-designated terrorist group that overthrew the Asssad regime in December.    Sharaa wants the U.S., Europe and the United Nations to end economic sanctions imposed on Syria when Assad held power.  Sharaa has pledged to create a new army, security apparatus and temporary legislative council until a new constitution can be drafted and adopted. After taking control of Damascus, the HTS offered a general amnesty for army conscripts, retained police on duty and offered former officials protection if they identified themselves. The HTS political-affairs bureau intends to form rebel groups into a national army, invite Syrian refugees to return, and stand up government ministries.   Wall Street Journal Reuters New York Times 

Trump Mideast envoy goes on the ground in Gaza.  Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, made a rare visit to Gaza Wednesday to see for himself the war’s devastation and underscore the vital  cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Witkoff flew to Israel and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after stopping off in Saudi Arabia Tuesday to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Netanyahu, expected at White House Tuesday, will be the first foreign leader to meet with Trump in Washington since his inauguration. In Gaza, Witkoff visited the Netzarim corridor, the dividing line between north and south Gaza. He was accompanied by Israel’s strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer, who has been formulating Israel’s post-war Gaza plans. In Saudi Arabia, Witkoff and Mohammed discussed the cease-fire deal and normalizing relations with Israel.  While in Saudi Arabia, Witkoff met with Hussein al-Sheikh, a senior Palestinian Authority official about its role in Gaza.  Wall Street Journal 

Qatar’s emir to visit Damascus on Jan. 30th. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will visit Damascus on Thursday, where he is set meet Syria’s new transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as the two nations strengthen ties following the ousting of former President Bashar al-Assad. Qatar, which previously backed Syrian opposition forces, reopened its embassy in Damascus in December after over a decade of closure. The Gulf state has focused on humanitarian aid and hosted Syria’s new Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani earlier this month. Reuters Al Jazeera 

What Syria’s Secret Police Saw as the Regime Crumbled. Abandoned intelligence documents from Syria’s Branch 215 reveal the Bashar al-Assad regime’s failure to stop Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, who rapidly advanced from Idlib to Damascus. Reports described elite Syrian troops fleeing “in a hysterical manner,” leaving weapons and vehicles behind. The intelligence service struggled to counter the offensive, issuing last-minute orders to defend key cities. Corruption, economic collapse, and a lack of air support weakened Assad’s military, leading to its disintegration. Rebels exploited Iran and Russia’s distractions to launch their assault, cutting off regime strongholds. As Damascus fell, security forces fled, leaving behind evidence of their final desperate attempts to retain control. Wall Street Journal

Hamas freeing hostages, Israel releasing prisoners as fragile Gaza ceasefire holds. Hamas released one Israeli hostage, Agam Berger, in northern Gaza on Thursday, while two others, Arbel Yehoud and Gadi Moses, were set to be freed in Khan Younis. Additionally, five Thai citizens were expected to be released. The exchange is part of a ceasefire deal that started on January 19, under which Hamas is releasing hostages weekly in phases. The deal has faced tensions, with Israel delaying humanitarian access until Yehoud was released. The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt are monitoring the truce, which aims to secure the release of 33 hostages over six weeks. As part of the agreement, Israel will release 110 Palestinian prisoners on Thursday, including some serving life sentences. Associated Press Times of Israel 

Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza complicates Netanyahu’s war aims. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge of “total victory” over Hamas appears increasingly unattainable as a ceasefire allows over a million displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza. While Israel has inflicted heavy losses, including killing top Hamas leaders and destroying infrastructure, the group remains intact and in control. Hamas has used the ceasefire to reestablish its presence, deploying police and staging high-profile events. If the truce holds, more hostages will be freed, but if negotiations fail, over half of the 90 remaining captives will stay in Gaza. Netanyahu has yet to outline a postwar governance plan, leaving Hamas the dominant force. Analysts suggest Hamas may claim victory, arguing Israel failed to achieve its objectives. The reopening of the Netzarim corridor has also given Hamas greater freedom to operate. Former Israeli General Giora Eiland warned that Israel has lost leverage, saying, “The war has ended very badly” for Israel. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Experts argue North Korea’s Kim Jong-un seeks negotiating leverage over U.S. with new nuclear demands. Analysts say that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is pushing to expand the country’s nuclear arsenal as a strategic move to pressure the U.S. into arms reduction talks rather than full denuclearization. During a recent visit to a nuclear weapons institute, Kim called for increasing weapons-grade nuclear material production and described nuclear forces as growing “stronger by the day.” He framed this buildup as essential for a long-term confrontation with hostile countries. This announcement comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power”, suggesting a possible shift in U.S. policy. However, the White House has reaffirmed Trump’s stance on seeking complete denuclearization, despite his past diplomatic efforts with Kim. Experts believe Kim’s move is a calculated response to Trump’s recent outreach, signaling that Pyongyang would only engage in negotiations on arms control, rather than dismantling its nuclear program. Analysts argue that the regime seeks to maintain its nuclear arsenal while pushing for diplomatic concessions. South China Morning Post 

North Korea crackdowns on alleged corruption. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un publicly condemned corruption within the ruling party this week, calling bribery and misconduct, including drinking sessions among officials, "crimes that cannot be condoned." Following a party investigation, 40 officials were found guilty of bribery and rule violations, leading to the dissolution of local party committees in Onchon County and Usi County. This crackdown is seen as part of a broader effort to improve governance and living conditions ahead of the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party. South China Morning Post 

Tokyo, Washington planning meeting between Ishiba and Trump in early February. Japan and the United States are finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Donald Trump in Washington, according to the Asahi newspaper. The discussions will focus on deepening security and economic cooperation, with Ishiba aiming to build a personal relationship with Trump and bolster the Japan-U.S. alliance. Ishiba also plans to highlight Japanese companies' job creation in the U.S. and Tokyo’s increased defense budget. However, Japan’s foreign ministry stated that the exact timing of the meeting is still being coordinated. Reuters

Risk of violence, conflict surges in Myanmar as military junta prepares for controversial elections. Myanmar's military junta is planning a 2025 election to gain legitimacy amid a worsening civil war. The regime has outlined its plans to neighboring countries, published census results to prepare voter lists, and pledged to ensure “stability” ahead of the polls. However, the junta faces widespread resistance from armed opposition groups, including ethnic armies and new resistance movements that have gained control of large territories. Analysts predict that the election will escalate violence, as the military seeks to secure voting areas while rebel forces push back. Critics condemn it a sham, as voting will occur in only half the country, and opposition groups are banned. The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow administration formed by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and other anti-junta groups, is also vowing to disrupt the election. Analysts warn of a potential bloodbath, with polling stations and officials at risk. Meanwhile, 15 million people face severe food insecurity, and ASEAN urges peace talks instead of elections, though the junta remains determined to proceed. Reuters

Dozens of refugees accepted by Washington stuck in Australia amid Trump freeze. Australia's refugee resettlement program is facing uncertainty after the Trump administration froze refugee admissions this month. Around 30 refugees who arrived by boat a decade ago and were expecting to resettle in the U.S. are now in limbo. Under a 2016 agreement, the U.S. pledged to accept up to 1,250 refugees from Australia’s offshore processing centers in Nauru and Papua New Guinea (PNG). While 1,106 refugees have resettled, others remain in various pre-departure stages. Canberra, which bars boat arrivals from settling in the country, still sends some asylum seekers to Nauru, as PNG’s center has closed. With an election approaching, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government is trying to demonstrate its strict border policies. Meanwhile, Australia is in talks with New Zealand to expand resettlement options. Reuters 

Australia dealing with more antisemitic graffiti as police discover explosives, list of Jewish targets. Three new cases of antisemitic graffiti were found in Sydney on Thursday, adding to a series of attacks targeting Jewish communities in Australia. Authorities also uncovered explosives and a list of Jewish targets in a trailer in Sydney’s outskirts, raising terrorism concerns. The explosives, Powergel, could have caused a 40-meter blast zone, officials said. Since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in 2023, antisemitic arson, vandalism, and attacks have surged in Sydney and Melbourne. A joint counterterrorism team is investigating possible foreign involvement in funding these attacks. The trailer owner was among 10 people arrested in an antisemitism-related sting. Authorities say the intent was to create fear but have not formally classified the incident as terrorism. Jewish leaders and the Israeli Foreign Minister have called for stronger government action, while the issue has become politically divisive ahead of Canberra’s national elections. The opposition has criticized the ruling Labor Party for inaction, while some argue antisemitism is being politicized for electoral gain. Associated Press BBC PBS  South China Morning Post 

Polio resurgence in Pakistan as militant violence and vaccine resistance rise. After a years-long downward trend in polio cases, the disease has surged in Pakistan, rising from just one case in 2021 to 73 in 2024, with the virus spreading in conflict-ridden regions like Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The country is suffering increasing militant attacks on vaccination teams, with over two dozen incidents reported last year. Many health workers have resigned due to safety concerns and low pay. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) views vaccinators as targets, believing vaccination campaigns are used for spying—a perception deepened by the CIA’s fake hepatitis vaccine program in 2011. Militants claim they would protect vaccine teams if they operated under TTP control rather than the Pakistani army. Pakistan’s struggle to contain polio is worsened by insufficient funding, lack of clean water, and cold storage issues. Security threats have also disrupted efforts in Afghanistan, where the Taliban has restricted door-to-door vaccinations. The situation is compounded by Trump's freeze on foreign aid and Washington’s possible withdrawal from the WHO, which could delay eradication efforts and increase global transmission risks. Experts warn that without urgent action, both Pakistan and Afghanistan will suffer severe consequences. Washington Post VOA 

AFRICA

Congolese president Tshisekedi spurns peace talks over Goma seizure. State media reports that the Democratic Republic of Congo's President Félix Tshisekedi has refused to participate in regional peace talks aimed at ending the M23 rebel assault on Goma, eastern Congo’s largest city, despite Kenya’s invitation. Rwanda, accused of backing M23 militias, will attend, but it's unclear if President Paul Kagame will join. Fighting in Goma has left bodies in the streets, hospitals overwhelmed, and essential services cut off. M23 rebels, led by ethnic Tutsis, claim to protect Tutsi rights in Congo, while Rwanda accuses Congo of harboring Hutu militias linked to the 1994 genocide. Insurgents are now advancing toward Bukavu, Congo’s second-largest city. The ongoing crisis has sparked anti-foreign protests in Kinshasa, with at least 10 embassies attacked. Meanwhile, Rwanda denies supporting M23, dismissing claims that it seeks to exploit Congo’s rich mineral resources like gold, coltan, tantalum, and cobalt, essential for electronics and EV batteries. BBC

Congo to mount operation to recover lost territory as M23 rebels move south. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi on Wednesday vowed to launch a military campaign to recover lost territory and warned that "the presence of thousands of Rwandan soldiers on our soil” is driving the nation toward an “escalation with unpredictable consequences." Rwandan-backed M23 rebels continued their advance beyond Goma, a city of 2 million people. The insurgents were moving south toward Bukavu and targeting the airport at Kavumu on Jan. 29th. Despite diplomatic pressure, including U.S. condemnation and Germany’s cancellation of aid talks with Rwanda, fighting intensified. As the East African Community (EAC) and the UN called for an immediate ceasefire, the rebels were patrolling the border with Rwanda and tightening their hold on the city. Hospitals in Goma remain overwhelmed, and displaced civilians are facing worsening conditions. Reuters Associated Press 

Congo's foreign mercenaries heading home after defeat. Nearly 300 foreign mercenaries, taken on by the Congolese government to counter the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, have surrendered after being cornered in Goma. With no escape route, they turned themselves over to UN peacekeepers, who facilitated their return home via Rwanda on Wednesday. The Romanian and French-trained mercenaries, working under Bulgarian and French military contractors, had operated drones but were overpowered by Rwanda’s air defenses. One analysts says their presence worsened the conflict due to poor coordination with Congo’s disorganized army. M23’s spokesperson mocked the mercenaries, highlighting that they earned $8,000 per month, while Congolese soldiers make less than $100. This episode adds to Congo’s long history of failed mercenary interventions, dating back to the 1960s Katanga crisis. Rwanda’s army processed over 280 Romanian mercenaries at the border and transported them to Kigali for repatriation. Meanwhile, Congo’s President Tshisekedi vowed a military response to reclaim lost territory. Reuters Euronews BBC RFI

‘Nobody to trust’: Congolese civilians trapped in violence face a difficult choice. As M23 rebels, supported by Rwanda, consolidate their control over Goma, thousands of Congolese civilians face a difficult choice: flee into Rwanda, the alleged backer of M23, or seek protection from Congo’s weak and disorganized army. Over 1,200 Congolese, including surrendering soldiers, have crossed into Rwanda since the rebels seized the city. The fall of Goma has sparked fears that M23 will hold it as a buffer zone, effectively redrawing borders in a region rich in minerals like gold and cobalt. The rebels’ rapid victories have exposed the failures of Congo’s army, despite support from U.N. peacekeepers, African regional troops, and foreign mercenaries. Nearly 400,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks, with no safe refuge in sight. As international pressure mounts for a ceasefire, President Félix Tshisekedi refuses to negotiate with M23, while Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame continues to justify intervention. Associated Press 

WHO warns of public health crisis in Congo. The M23 rebel takeover of Goma has created a severe humanitarian and health crisis, with 700,000 displaced people around the provincial capital at risk of disease outbreaks amid worsening conditions. Electricity and water remain cut off, and WHO aid teams cannot access hospitals, making public health response nearly impossible. Officials are concerned about child malnutrition, as well as major disease outbreaks in the region like cholera, measles, and malaria. The spread of mpox is also a concern, as infected patients have fled treatment centers due to the violence. UNICEF warns of rising child separations, increasing the risk of kidnapping, armed recruitment, and sexual violence. The agency is urgently seeking $22 million for medical aid, clean water, and child protection. The UN and humanitarian groups are calling for immediate international action to stop the fighting and ease the crisis, as Goma remains at the center of a worsening catastrophe. UN News 

ECOWAS pledges to ‘keep door open’ after 3 coup-hit West African nations exit regional bloc. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have formally withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), completing a yearlong process that the regional bloc had sought to prevent. ECOWAS, which was established in 1975 to promote economic integration and regional stability among its 15 member nations, stated it would “keep its doors open” and requested remaining members to maintain privileges for the departing countries, including free movement. ECOWAS president Omar Alieu Touray expressed hope for continued cooperation, particularly on security issues. The departure deepens ECOWAS’ legitimacy crisis, as critics argue the bloc prioritizes leaders over citizens. The juntas have instead formed the Alliance of Sahel States, severed military ties with the West, and turned to Russia. This is the first time in ECOWAS’ 50-year history that members have exited in such a manner, raising concerns about regional stability. ECOWAS urged its members to uphold trade rules with the breakaway nations and continue collaboration where possible. Associated Press  

Crash of Chinese oil company’s flight kills 20 in South Sudan. A chartered plane operated by Chinese oil company Greater Pioneer Operating Co. crashed in South Sudan’s Unity state on Wednesday, killing 20 people, with one survivor. The aircraft was carrying oil company workers and crashed during takeoff while heading to the capital, Juba. The victims were mostly South Sudanese, along with one Indian and two Chinese nationals, according to reports. The cause of the crash remains unknown, and President Salva Kiir has ordered an investigation. South Sudan, a major oil producer, is trying to boost production amid economic struggles. Associated Press BBC  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Donald Trump’s plan for space lasers to destroy nuclear weapons. Donald Trump has ordered work on the most ambitious U.S. missile defense system in history, aiming to create a space-based shield to intercept hypersonic and nuclear missiles. The “Iron Dome for America” includes deploying satellites armed with lasers to destroy incoming threats. Experts warn the project is technologically unfeasible, requiring mini nuclear reactors or advanced solar power to operate, and would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. A 2012 report estimated a limited space-based defense system would need 650 satellites at $300 billion. Analysts argue the initiative could provoke an arms race with Russia and China, which may expand their nuclear arsenals to counterbalance any perceived advantage. Some suggest the U.S. should instead focus on enhancing ground-based missile defenses, such as Patriot and THAAD systems. Elon Musk’s SpaceX stands to benefit from satellite launches, but critics call the project unrealistic and strategically destabilizing. Financial Times

OpenAI, Microsoft investigating possible DeepSeek ‘distillation’ of ChatGPT models. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, says it has evidence that the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek used OpenAI’s proprietary models to train its recently released open-source product.  OpenAI told the Financial Times it had uncovered indications of “distillation” that link to DeepSeek.  A person associated with OpenAI said “the issue is when you (take output from the platform) and are doing it to create your own model for your own purposes.”  Distillation is a breach of OpenAI’s terms of service.  OpenAI and Microsoft, with which it partners, last year investigated accounts that it believes are connected to DeepSeek and blocked their access to OpenAI application programming interface (API).  Microsoft and OpenAI have not responded to requests for comment on that investigation.  The new White House crypto-AI czar, David Sacks, told Fox News that “it is possible” DeepSeek was involved in intellectual property theft.  Sacks added “there’s substantial evidence that what DeepSeek did here is they distilled the knowledge out of OpenAI models, and I don’t think OpenAI is very happy about this.”  OpenAI acknowledged Sacks’ comments without directly responding to them.  The company said in a statement, “we know PRC based companies — and others — are constantly trying to distill the models of leading US AI companies.  As the leading builder of AI, we engage in countermeasures to protect our IP, including a careful process for which frontier capabilities to include in released models, and believe as we go forward that it is critically important that we are working closely with the U.S. government to best protect the most capable models from efforts by adversaries and competitors to take US technology.”  Financial Times   Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg   Cybernews   TechCrunch

Irish, Italian data protection agencies request details on DeepSeek data handling operations. Ireland’s Data Protection Commission, the E.U.’s privacy watchdog, is questioning China’s DeepSeek AI startup over concern about its handling of collected user data.  The commission said it has been in touch with DeepSeek to obtain “information on the data processing conducted in relation to data subjects in Ireland.”  Ireland acts as the main regulator for tech firms in the E.U. because many are headquartered in the country.  Bloomberg reports that it is still unclear if a probe of DeepSeek is within the responsibility of the Irish commission, although it does monitor compliance with E.U. data protection rules by Meta, Google, and others.  Meanwhile, the Italian data protection authority also has asked DeepSeek for information on its data processing, noting that “the data of millions of Italians is at risk.”  The Italian agency has asked DeepSeek to provide details on what personal data is collected, from which sources, and for which purposes.  Italy’s regulators also have requested information on the servers DeepSeek operates in China to store data.  Notably, DeepSeek’s mobile app is no longer available on the Google and Apple app stores in Italy.  Bloomberg   TechCrunch   Reuters   Politico

DeepSeek chatbot ranks near bottom in providing accurate responses compared to Western rivals. According to an audit performed by the NewsGuard rating service, the chatbot developed by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek performs poorly in delivering accurate news and information, achieving only a 17 percent rating.  The DeepSeek chatbot ranks tenth out of 11 chatbots, primarily operated by Western competitors, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini.  In repeating false claims 30 percent of the time and giving non-responsive answers to 53 percent of queries, DeepSeek was given an 83 percent fail rate.  The average fail rate of Western chatbots was 62 percent, according to the NewsGuard study.   NewsGuard also noted that, in three out of 10 prompts, DeepSeek’s chatbot responded with a Chinese government position on a selected topic without being asked anything relating to China.  An industry analyst said, however, that DeepSeek’s accuracy performance is not the key for the startup’s breakthrough, but "the fact that it can answer any question at 1/30th of the cost of comparable AI models.”  Reuters

Key U.S. AI policy directions may shift in wake of DeepSeek chatbot breakthrough. The startling success of DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model appears to be reconfiguring policy positions in the U.S. regarding AI development.  A variety of opinions have surfaced in the wake of DeepSeek’s achievement of a chatbot developed at a staggeringly low price compared to Western competitors and with far less training data.  Some observers say DeepSeek’s success undermines the rationale for stringent U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips.  The Washington Post on Wednesday summarized three key policy issues that may define post-DeepSeek debates and decisions, beginning with the question of whether the U.S. “should focus on promoting innovation rather than eradicating risk.”  Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the DeepSeek experience shows there is no guarantee that the U.S. will maintain its leadership.  Consequently, Allen remarked, “there is effectively no margin to slow down.”  The second pivotal issue is that the unexpected source of AI breakthroughs amplifies the need for competition and the primacy of open-source development approaches.  A source the Washington Post described as familiar with the Biden administration AI strategy said recent events indicate former FTC chair Lina Khan was correct in believing that “lean companies scrapping to innovate create better products for cheaper,” and “breaking up the chokehold five companies have on AI and innovation is the key.”  Finally, the DeepSeek achievement calls into question the presumed need for enormous investments in energy and AI infrastructure. Margaret Mitchell, chief ethics scientist at the Hugging Face AI firm, commented that the Chinese startup’s successes “demonstrate that the U.S. Big Tech narrative that the expansion of energy production is what’s required for them to lead in a global ‘AI race’ is utter hogwash.  She added, “it speaks to the siloed groupthink myopia that plagues Silicon Valley.”  Washington Post

FBI seizes domains of multiple cybercrime forums offering hacking tools, stolen credentials. The FBI has seized domains operated by two hacking forums, Cracked.io and Nulled.to, that specialize in cybercrime, password thefts, and credential stuffing attacks.  The domains also hosted hacking tools for credential stuffing as well as a marketplace for stolen credentials.  In conducting the seizure operation, the FBI modified the previous Cloudflare name servers.  However, Cracked.io staff said in a Telegram post that access problems stemmed from a data center issue.  The FBI also conducted operations against other cybercrime domains, shutting down the operations of MySellIX (mysellix.io) and SellIX (sellix.io), two platforms used by threat actors to sell stolen data, software keys, and compromised accounts, and StarkRDP (starkrdp.io), a virtual hosting provider allegedly used for credential stuffing attacks.  BleepingComputer

Large energy tech firm says ransomware attack shut off access to financial systems for six weeks. The financial systems of ENGlobal Corporation, a large energy firm and federal contractor, were inaccessible for six weeks in the wake of a recent ransomware attack.  According to an ENGlobal filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the ransomware attacks limited company access to systems used for operations and corporate functions, “including financial and operating reporting systems.”  As of Monday, the company said its operations have been “fully restored.”  ENGlobal believes the threat actor “no longer has access to the company's IT system.”  The company, which is based in Oklahoma, said the threat actor did gain access “to a portion of the Company’s IT system that contained sensitive personal information.”  The company specializes “in turnkey automation and instrumentation systems for the U.S. Defense industry.”  No ransomware actor has claimed responsibility for the attack on ENGlobal.  The Record   TechRadar

AI platform code vulnerability opened potential for ‘unfettered access’ privileges. An easily exploitable vulnerability in the Lightning.AI development platform, which has now been patched, could have provided threat actors with remote code execution privileges.  Noma security researchers said the flaw embedded in Javascript for Lightning.AI’s platform provided “virtually unfettered access” to users’ cloud studios and opened the risk of sensitive data exfiltration and file manipulation.  Noma discovered the vulnerability on Oct. 14, 2024, and contacted Lightning.AI staff the same day.  A patch was developed and implemented by Oct. 25.  A Noma representative said the vulnerability carries a 9.4 CVSS severity rating due to the flaw offering “root access with the … highest privileges.”  Noma described the bug as “a vulnerability which … can shut down essentially everything you own,” adding that “this is every secret that you own; your AWS account, your platform within Lightning.AI, anything that was connected to Lightning.AI can now be used by a malicious actor to their want.”  A Lightning.AI spokesperson said the company had no evidence the vulnerability was exploited in the wild and has instituted additional security protections.  The Noma representative commented that “we are in an AI world where everything is fast paced.  There is very high, accelerated adoption of AI, and right now, I feel like this is a very fertile ground for mistakes and bugs. CyberScoop Cybernews

TikTok to invest $3.8 billion in Thailand data hosting project, investment board says. TikTok, owned by ByteDance, will invest $3.76 billion in a data hosting service in Thailand through its Singapore-based unit, with operations set to begin in 2026. The investment is part of $5 billion in newly approved projects, according to Thailand’s Board of Investment. TikTok did not confirm the announcement. The move aligns with a broader trend of tech giants expanding data centers in Thailand, including Google's $1 billion investment last year and Amazon Web Services’ $5 billion commitment over 15 years. Microsoft has also announced plans for a regional data center. Officials say this strengthens Thailand’s digital and AI infrastructure. Reuters

Russian Oligarch Held Stake in Musk’s SpaceX Through Trust While He Was Sanctioned. Russian billionaire Suleyman Kerimov, sanctioned by the U.S. since 2018, secretly held a stake in SpaceX through Delaware-based Heritage Trust, exposing gaps in sanctions enforcement. Citigroup, which administered the trust, determined it didn’t need to block Kerimov’s assets at the time. Treasury only froze the $1 billion trust in 2022 after uncovering a complex web of shell companies obscuring his ownership. SpaceX, now valued at $350 billion, may not have known of Kerimov’s involvement. The Justice Department is investigating Citigroup’s handling of the trust. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s ties to Donald Trump and alleged contacts with Russian officials are under scrutiny, with U.S. senators questioning his reliability as a government contractor. Musk has denied wrongdoing but has faced criticism over Starlink’s use in Ukraine. Treasury’s case against Kerimov underscores how sanctioned elites exploit opaque financial structures to maintain access to U.S. assets, raising broader concerns over enforcement failures. Bloomberg

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief