THE OPEN SOURCE REPORT

Thursday, January 26, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security and delivers it to your inbox M-F.  Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas...

US Pledges 31 Abrams Tanks for Ukraine.  President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that the US will send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  The tanks are part of a $400 million package, which also includes tank ammunition and support vehicles.  Biden said the tanks will improve the Ukrainian military’s capabilities in open terrain but that they do not pose an “offensive threat to Russia.”  Officials note that the delivery of the tanks will take a few months and that the Abrams are aimed more at bolstering Ukraine’s long-term defense.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticized the announcement, saying the US Abrams tanks will “burn” like all others in the Ukrainian army.  NPR Politico Reuters CNN

Secret Service Says Half of US Mass Attacks Result from Personal, Domestic, Workplace Disputes.  The US Secret Service released a report that says half of mass attacks in the US between 2016-2020 were caused by personal, domestic or workplace disputes.  The report adds that most attackers used guns and were men with mental health issues, financial insecurity or a history of engaging in domestic violence.  Secret Service officials say the report, which comes after a series of mass shootings in recent days, aims to help prevent violence by identifying warning signs beforehand.  Reuters

UN Says International Force Needed to Counter Haiti Criminal Gangs.  The UN envoy to Haiti, Helen La Lime, is urging countries to form a rapid action force to counter criminal gangs in Haiti.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres proposed the force after Haiti requested it three months ago.  There is ongoing debate about who would lead this multinational force, which would not deploy as a UN mission.  While the US and Canada have been looked to as potential leaders, their UN representatives are signaling that they are reluctant to deploy security personnel to Haiti and that the Caribbean nation should be supported to address its security challenges itself.  Associated Press Reuters

OAS Backs Peru’s Boluarte.  The Organization of American States’ permanent council said on Wednesday that it fully supports Peruvian President Dina Boluarte amid protests against her government.  Boluarte virtually asked the council to support her request for Peru’s Congress to approve early elections and move them up from 2026 to April 2024.  Meanwhile, a group of Peruvian lawmakers has submitted a motion seeking to impeach Boluarte over her “permanent moral incapacity” in regards to the increasingly violent crackdown on protests.  Reuters

Brazil’s Lula Calls for New South American Trade Deal with China.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Wednesday that the South American trade bloc Mercosur should establish a trade agreement with China.  He also called for Mercosur to quickly resolve its agreement with the EU, which has been delayed over environmental concerns, so it can move on to a deal with China.  Lula’s comments came on a trip to Uruguay where he is working to dissuade its government from reaching its own bilateral trade deal with China outside of Mercosur.  Reuters

Western Europe

European Space Agency Says Won’t Send Astronauts to China’s Tiangong Space Station.  European Space Agency director general Josef Aschbacher told reporters that the ESA does not plan to send European astronauts to China’s new Tiangong space station.  He said that the ESA is instead focusing on commitments to the International Space Station.  His comments appear to counter a 2014 agreement between the ESA and China Manned Space Agency in 2014 to cooperate on Tiangong.  Officials say Covid-19 and the Ukraine war have made space cooperation between Europe and China more difficult.  South China Morning Post

Germany Arrests Second Individual in Russian Espionage Investigation.  German authorities arrested a second individual in connection with an ongoing espionage investigation involving Russia and Germany’s BND intelligence service.  German prosecutors say the man, identified as Arthur E, whose real name was not released for security reasons, was arrested at the Munich airport after he arrived in Germany from the United States last month.  German officials say the man is connected with the first suspect who was arrested in the case back in December. Reuters Associated Press 

Central and Eastern Europe

Russian Missiles Strike Across Ukraine in Retaliation for Tank Announcements.  Multiple media reports say that air raid sirens were heard in much of Ukraine on Thursday in what appeared to be an aggressive response by Moscow, to the announcement that Germany and the US would send main battle tanks to Ukraine.  Ukraine’s military says it shot down 47 out of 55 missiles, including 20 over Kyiv.  A 55-year old man was reportedly killed near Kyiv by falling missile fragments. France 24 quoted the head of Ukraine’s army, Valery Zaluzhny as saying that among the missiles fired by Moscow were the Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile.   France24 CNN Reuters BBC 

Russia Condemns German Tank Transfers to Ukraine as Direct Involvement in War.  Russia slammed Germany’s decision to transfer its Leopard tanks to Ukraine on Wednesday.  The Russian ambassador to Berlin said the move will escalate the conflict in Ukraine and signals Germany’s abandonment of its “historical responsibility” to Russia following World War Two.  A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said the tank transfers show Germany was involved in the planning of a premeditated war against Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in a televised meeting after the announcement of the tank transfers but did not mention them, only referring to the “complicated” security situation Russia faces.  Al Jazeera Reuters The Hill  CNN

Ukraine to Pursue Fourth Generation Fighter Jets.  Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine’s defense minister, told Reuters that now that Kyiv is receiving Western tanks, it will push for Western fourth-generation fighter jets like the US F-16s.  Sak said advanced fighter jets would significantly boost the Ukrainian military’s capability to intercept Russian attacks and strike Russian positions.  He added that he is confident Ukraine will receive the jets, as Western partners have eventually given all military aid Kyiv has requested.  Western officials have echoed Sak’s comments and said they are preparing to discuss possible jet transfers.  Politico Reuters

Missile Hits Turkish Cargo Ship Trapped in Ukraine’s Kherson.  A missile hit the bridge of a Turkish-owned cargo ship in the Ukrainian port of Kherson.  Sources say the missile was likely launched at Kherson and hit the ship.  There were no reported casualties.  The ship, the Tuzla, has been stuck in Kherson since February 2022.  It is one of twelve Turkish cargo ships trapped at Ukrainian ports since they are not covered by the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal.  Reuters

Asia

Taiwanese Military Analyst Says Beijing’s Intimidation Tactics Could Backfire.  The South China Morning Posts has a new report that cites a Taiwanese military expert, based in Taipei, who says that an uptick in Chinese military aggression towards Taiwan could backfire and increase support for the US among Taiwan’s civilian population.  The expert, Chi Le-yi says that the recent US Defense budget which contained increased support for Taiwan, along with increased transparency from Washington about it’s support for the island is a clear demonstration of turning previous commitment by the US into action, a fact that could drive more Taiwanese to side with the US in the face of increasing pressure and attempts to intimidate Taiwan by the Chinese military.  South China Morning Post 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Raid Kills Nine Palestinians.  Israeli forces killed nine Palestinians on Thursday during a raid in the town of Jenin in the occupied Western Bank.  Palestinian health officials report that an elderly woman was killed and 20 other people were injured in the raid.  The Israeli military said it conducted the raid to arrest an Islamic Jihad “terror squad” planning major attacks on Israel.  The Palestinian presidency accused Israel of committing a massacre.  BBC Associated Press 

Tehran Has Obtained Enough Material for ‘Several Nuclear Weapons.’  International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi says that Tehran has obtained enough nuclear material for ‘several’ nuclear weapons and is urging diplomatic negotiations to be restarted. Speaking to the European Parliament in Brussels ahead of a planned trip to Tehran, Grossi told lawmakers that Iran has not yet obtained a nuclear weapon, and that Western countries should intensify efforts to prevent it from obtaining one.  Grossi will travel to Iran in February for a dialogue on nuclear issues and says such talks are necessary given the stalled discussions around reviving the JCPOA, a deal he now calls an ‘empty shell’.   Associated Press CNN 

US Commits $72 Million for Lebanon's Security Forces.  The US is providing $72 million in cash stipends to Lebanon’s security forces through a UN program.  The support comes amid Lebanon’s currency meltdown and financial collapse which have significantly driven down security personnel’s wages, subsequently leading to around 5,000 troops quitting without authorization.  The US funding aims to provide remaining soldiers $100 monthly for six months as a temporary solution to the issue.  Reuters Times of Israel

Lebanon's Chief Prosecutor Charges Judge Investigating Beirut Blast.  Lebanon’s top public prosecutor charged Judge Tarek Biktar for mishandling the investigation into the August 2022 Beirut port explosion on Wednesday.  The move comes days after Biktar unexpectedly restarted the probe into the Beirut blast and charged top officials over the disaster, including two of Lebanon’s top generals, a former army chief, then-prime minister Hassan Dib and the top public prosecutor himself.  Biktar remained defiant, saying that he will continue his investigation until he issues an indictment.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

French Forces to Withdraw from Burkina Faso Within a Month.  The French foreign ministry announced Wednesday that France is withdrawing its 200-400 troops stationed in Burkina Faso over the next month.  The move comes after Burkina Faso’s military junta terminated an accord allowing French forces to fight Islamist insurgents in the country and said that Burkina Faso will now defend itself.  The development comes amid escalating Islamist insurgencies in West Africa and is the latest show of anti-French sentiments in the region.  Deutsche Welle France 24 Reuters

Cyber & Tech

UK Cyber Officials Warn of New Campaign Targeting Politicians and Journalists.  The UK’s National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) has issued a new report that warns of a new campaign by Iranian and Russian hackers to target British politicians and journalists.  The center warns that the attackers are “ruthless”’ in their efforts and specifically calls out those who are doing research and work related to Russia and Iran as particularly at risk. BBC 

Russian Hacking Group Killnet Targets German Websites Following Tank Announcement.  Reuters reports that a Russian hacktivist group is responsible for targeting some German websites following Germany’s announcement that it would send tanks to Ukraine.  The group, known as killnet claimed responsibility and said it was targeting government websites, the financial sector and airports with a Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack.  Germany’s BSI Cyber agency later said the campaign had little ‘tangible effect’ in a statement.  Reuters 

CISA Releases New Cybersecurity Guidance for K-12 US Schools.  Axios is out with a report on CISA’s new report designed to help US school systems in the K-12 sector improve cybersecurity.  CISA says the new guidance, which isn’t yet mandatory, suggests that school districts focus on a small, limited but achievable list of priorities such as implementing multi-factor authentication, pursuing government grants for cybersecurity funding and joining threat intelligence sharing groups.  This comes as the number of reported cyber incidents impacting schools in the US has risen from 400 to more than 1300 per year between 2018-2021.  Axios 

House Oversight Committee Changes Likely with New Focus on Cybersecurity.  Fedscoop reports that changes are coming to the House Oversight Committee, citing a congressional staff member familiar with the discussions.  House Republican leaders of the Committee are planning to divide the Government Operations Subcommittee into two new divisions, with one focused on IT and cybersecurity and the other focused on the federal workforce.  Final details on the changes have not been agreed upon and a vote on the matter is expected in the coming weeks.  Fedscoop 

Pakistan Investigating if Cyber Attack Caused Blackouts.  Pakistani authorities say they are investigating if a cyberattack caused failures in the country’s power grid that led to widespread blackouts on Monday.  Most power has since been restored, though officials say some coal and nuclear power plants were not yet fully operational.  Pakistan has suffered these outages before due to technical failures, but Pakistan’s energy minister said that there was a “remote chance” that the recent blackouts were caused by a cyberattack.  The Record

Space Tech Startup Planning First Asteroid Mining Missions.  Asteroid mining startup AstroForge is planning two missions this year to begin first attempts to extract and refine metals and minerals from asteroids.  The first launch in April will involve a transport pre-loaded with “asteroid-like material” to demonstrate the company’s refining and extracting capabilities in zero-gravity.  The second mission later in the year will take the company to an asteroid in deep space for observation.  AstroForge says it is working with a host of other space tech companies on these missions and is already planning future mining and refining operations.  Bloomberg TechCrunch

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