Report for Thursday, January 25, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel orders evacuation of packed Gaza area with 2 major hospitals

U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan Strait

U.K. General calls for Britain to prepare for potential conflict with Russia

Russian oil refinery in southern town of Tuapse on fire

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel denies hitting U.N. facility in Khan Younis.  The U.N. said Wednesday that tank rounds hit a U.N. compound in Khan Younis in southern Gaza sheltering 30,000 displaced Palestinians.  U.N. officials said the incident caused “mass casualties,” reporting that at least nine people were killed, and 75 others wounded.  While U.N. officials did not explicitly say who hit the facility, they specified that it was hit by tank rounds. Only Israel is using tanks in the war with Hamas.  A U.S. State Department spokesperson directly condemned the attack, saying that civilians, U.N. facilities and humanitarian workers must be protected.  Israel’s military initially said its troops are pushing into Khan Younis to target Hamas fighters and military infrastructure; it acknowledged that fighting is taking place near many civilians.  After Washington’s criticism, Israel’s military denied that it struck the compound and suggested it may have been hit by Hamas fire.  Reuters New York Times Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera 

Israel orders evacuation of packed Gaza area with 2 major hospitals.  Israel’s military ordered the evacuation of part of Khan Younis in southern Gaza that includes two major hospitals, Nasser Hospital and Al-Amal Hospital.  The U.N. said a Jordanian field hospital is also included in the evacuation area.  The facilities account for a fifth of the remaining functioning hospital capacity in Gaza.  The U.N. estimates that 88,000 residents and 425,000 displaced people are in the 1.5-square-mile evacuation area.  The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said there is “intense shelling” near Al-Amal hospital and that Israeli forces are “surrounding” the area and “enforcing restrictions on movement.”  Gaza’s Health ministry said Nasser Hospital has been effectively cut off from “continuous bombing.”  Israel’s military has claimed that mortar fire has been launched on its troops from the Nasser hospital.  New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Israel demolishes buildings to create a buffer zone within Gaza.  Israel's military is working to establish a buffer zone inside Gaza by demolishing buildings near the border. Sources say the aim of the buffer zone is to prevent terrorist activities in the area to ensure an incursion like Hamas’s October 7 attack does not happen again. Israeli officials have not said how wide the buffer would be, but a former head of Israeli military intelligence told journalists that it will likely be 500 meters to 1 kilometer inside Gaza.  Israeli media reports that Israel has demolished 1,100 of the 2,800 buildings in the area intended to be the buffer zone. The U.S. has said it opposes a long-term reduction of Gaza’s territory after the war with Hamas.  However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that “transitional arrangements” may be possible post-war.  Financial Times Wall Street Journal

Israel says Hamas receiving online donations from groups posing as Gaza charities. Israeli officials estimate that Hamas is receiving $8 million to $12 million per month through online donations, a significant increase compared to pre-October 7 levels. Hamas has openly called for this financial support, terming it “financial jihad.”  Israeli officials say funds are often channeled to the group through organizations posing as charities to aid civilians in Gaza. The challenge is distinguishing between legitimate charities and entities covertly assisting Hamas. Israeli intelligence also believes that Iran funds Hamas military efforts with over $100 million a year.  Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Israel has intensified efforts to counter Hamas fundraising activities, including by forming a 16-nation task force to take action against the group’s financial network.  The U.S. has supported Israel through actions like imposing additional sanctions on Hamas. Experts say that despite the increase in donations for Hamas, challenges in moving goods and equipment into Gaza may impact the group’s immediate use of funds.  Bloomberg

Israel declassifies cabinet meetings to counter genocide case.  Israel has declassified over 30 secret orders to refute South Africa's accusations of genocide in Gaza. The documents aim to show Israeli efforts to minimize Palestinian civilian deaths and demonstrate that executive decisions and official orders prioritized humanitarian aid and legal warfare against Hamas.  The documents aim to challenge South Africa’s claim that inflammatory public statements by Israeli leaders indicate intent to commit genocide. The release coincides with the International Court of Justice hearing of the case.  The court is set to rule on Friday whether it will grant emergency measure against Israel over the genocide accusations.  New York Times  

White House envoy in Qatar pushing for Israeli hostage deal.  Brett McGurk, the top National Security Council official on the Middle East, was sent to pursue new progress on stalled hostage talks and push for a pause in fighting in Gaza. So far, there has reportedly been no breakthrough.“We certainly want to see another humanitarian pause put in place,” NSC spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday. “How close we are to that, what parameters are going to look like … that’s all part of the discussions right now.”  Washington Post

UK's Cameron tells Netanyahu more aid must be allowed into Gaza.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting in Israel yesterday that more aid trucks must be allowed into Gaza and that a humanitarian pause in the fighting is needed to alleviate a “desperate situation.” Cameron said the U.K. and Qatar are working together to get more aid into Gaza, with a shipment of tents to be flown to Egypt today.  Reuters

Egypt’s Sisi accuses Israel of blocking Gaza aid.  "We used to send Gaza 600 trucks a day. But for the past two to three days, we are not delivering more than 200 to 220 trucks (of aid) per day,” Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said. According to Reuters, the U.N. agency UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) also reported fewer than 200 trucks entering Gaza daily since Jan. 24. Israel insists on inspecting aid trucks for arms. Sisi charged that Israel was pursuing a political agenda, using Gazans’ misery to build pressure on Hamas for release of Israeli hostages.  Reuters 

Israeli protesters block Gaza aid.  Israeli protesters held an unauthorized rally at the Kerem Shalom crossing on Wednesday to block aid shipments into Gaza.  The U.N. said nine trucks made it through the crossing.  Over 100 trucks rerouted and entered through Egypt’s Rafah crossing, only 153 trucks entered Gaza in total on Wednesday, much less than what has entered the enclave in recent weeks.  The protesters, including family members of Israeli hostages held in Gaza, said they aimed to stop any aid to Hamas until the release of all hostages. New protests reportedly started on Thursday.  Al Jazeera Times of Israel Jerusalem Post New York Times

THE RED SEA

Explosions force U.S. military supply ships to retreat.  Maersk shipping company said rocket fire in the Bab al-Mandab Strait forced two container ships from its U.S. subsidiary, loaded with supplies for U.S. forces, to reverse course. "While en route, both ships reported seeing explosions close by and the U.S. Navy accompaniment also intercepted multiple projectiles," Maersk said. It said its U.S subsidiary would suspend further Red Sea transits.  Reuters Reuters

​​India deploys more warships to Middle East amid rebel attacks.  India has sent 10 warships to the area from the north and central Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden, up from the two usually in the region. The ships are focusing on monitoring Indian-flagged ships and responding to distress calls. India is not sending ships to join the U.S.-led naval force in the Red Sea, aiming to both maintain ties with Iran and adhere to its policy of only participating in U.N. missions. India is still continuing naval coordination with the U.S. and other partners, especially as China continues to enhance maritime capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.  Wall Street Journal

Houthis call for U.S. and British nationals to leave Yemen.  In a letter to Peter Hawkins, the U.N.’s acting humanitarian coordinator in Yemen, the Houthi foreign ministry said that all U.S. and British officials and staff of the U.N. and Sanaa-based humanitarian organizations must leave Yemen within a month.  The letter also warns foreign organizations against hiring American and British citizens for operations in Yemen.  The office of Hawkins, who is a British national, did not comment on the letter.  The U.S. embassy said it is aware of reports about the letter, and the British embassy said staff has not been told to leave.  The letter comes after U.S. and U.K. strikes against Houthi missiles in Yemen.  Reuters Times of Israel

Cipher Brief Expert Adm. (Ret.) James Stavridis said the Houthi are determined to continue attacks in the Red Sea, which he warned will have global impacts, including a rise in fuel prices and disruptions to trade.  Stavridis added that the U.S. should continue with strikes aimed at degrading Houthi capabilities.  He said these actions are ultimately meant to send a message to Iran as it continues to push its influence in the region. He noted that he sees a one in five chance that Iran will directly confront the U.S.  “The Iranians will fight to the last Houthi, but they’re not going to be putting Iranian armed forces in harms way,” he said.  When asked about when the U.S. should take more direct action on Iran, he said the next step would be targeting the Iranian Navy, referring to the late 1980s when the U.S. sank a third of the Iranian Navy when it tried to mine the Strait of Hormuz.  MSNBC

ANALYSIS — Red Sea strikes spark fear of a wider war.  The Red Sea conflict may not yet be a ‘war’, but experts say it looks to be trending in that direction. The Houthis have launched more than 30 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea since November, in a campaign that the group says is being waged to protest Israel’s war in Gaza. U.S. and British forces carried out fresh strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday, the eighth such attack by the U.S. and the second by the U.K. in a month-long series of retaliatory strikes. The Cipher Brief referred to former senior CIA Officers Bernard Hudson, Ralph Goff, and Glenn Corn for what they are watching as tensions in the region escalate.  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Moscow accuses Kyiv of downing military transport carrying Ukrainian POWs. When a Russian cargo plane crashed Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry accused Kyiv of shooting it down with two missiles, killing 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were being flown to Belgorod to be traded for captured Russian soldiers. Ukrainian officials did not deny the charge directly but rather said they hadn’t been informed by Moscow in the usual way that prisoners were being transported to Belgorod’s airport, the customary site for prisoner exchanges. “If Ukraine did shoot down a plane with its own soldiers onboard, even unwittingly,” the New York Times wrote, “it would be a painful setback at a difficult time for its war effort, which is severely challenged by ammunition and personnel shortages and fears that Western support is eroding.” The facts remain elusive. Russia offered no proof that the plane held Ukrainian POWs. “We’ve seen the reports, but we’re not in any position to confirm them,” NSC spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an international investigation into the incident and accused Russia of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners of war."  New York Times  Washington Post BBC Reuters Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Barron’s Kyiv Independent

Ukraine claims to have downed 11 of 14 Russian attack drones.  Ukraine’s Air Force said Ukrainian defenses downed 11 of 14 Shahed drones launched by Russia early on Thursday.  The Air Force said the drones were launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in southern Russia and Chauda in occupied Crimea and were downed over the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions.  Officials said the drone attack caused two injuries in the city of Odesa.  Russia also reportedly launched S-300 missiles at the Kharkiv region.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Russian oil refinery in southern town of Tuapse on fire.  A Ukrainian source said the SBU security service hit a Rosneft-owned oil refinery in the town of Tuapse in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Krai.  Russian authorities said a fire broke out at the facility and has been extinguished.  The fire is the latest in a series of incidents at Russian energy-export facilities blamed on Ukrainian drone attacks.  Reuters Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Hungary reportedly dropping opposition to new EU weapons fund for Ukraine.  Hungary will drop its objections to the creation of a $5.4 billion European Union fund for military assistance to Ukraine, paving the way for EU approval of a larger $50 billion financial aid package, according to sources familiar with the issue. The decision marks a reversal from Hungary’s stance earlier this week, when it said it opposed the revamping of the EU’s European Peace Facility (EPF) that reimburses member states for weapons they send to Ukraine. An agreement still hinges on whether the EU will agree to Hungary’s demand for yearly review, something most member states reject. Hungary has blocked the latest disbursement of $500 million from the EPF, but Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Hungary may support release of the funds after a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Monday.  Bloomberg

Senate panel approves “big hammer” plan to use seized Russian assets to aid Ukraine.  The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved legislation Wednesday to hand over seized Russian assets to Ukraine for reconstruction. The panel voted 20 to 1 for the "Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act."  If passed by Congress and signed into law, the REPO act would mark the first time Washington had the power to seize and spend central bank assets taken from a country with which the U.S. is not at war.  Reuters

Slovakia’s prime minister signals Ukraine support during visit to Kyiv.  Robert Fico campaigned to stop sending military aid to Kyiv and oppose more sanctions against Russia. But  on Wednesday, after meeting Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Fico reversed course. Shmyhal said Fico pledged to allow Slovak companies to supply Ukraine with weapons and to support Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.  The Slovak populist, who has served as prime minister three times before, had earlier tilted toward Moscow. In recent days, he called on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, said he would oppose Ukraine’s membership in NATO, suggested the U.S. was excessively influential in Kyiv and dismissed the Russian onslaught. “Do you really believe there is a war in Kyiv?” he said Tuesday when asked if he felt safe traveling to Kyiv. “I hope you’re not being serious . . . Life is perfectly normal there.”  Financial Times

Britain offers cruise-missile swap with Germany to send missiles to Ukraine.  Ukraine has been seeking Taurus missiles from Germany to bolster its long-range capabilities.  Government and diplomatic sources told German newspaper Handelsblatt that Britain has suggested that it could send Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine if Germany then gives Taurus missiles to the British military.  The office of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reportedly considering the proposal.  Reuters The Telegraph 

Ukraine to start building 4 new nuclear reactors this year.  Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko told Reuters that Ukraine expects to begin construction of four new nuclear power reactors this summer or fall as the country seeks to make up for energy capacity it has lost because of Russian attacks. Two of the reactors are to employ Russian-made equipment that Ukraine hopes to import from Bulgaria and the other two will use technology provided by the American company Westinghouse. Galushchenko said all four reactors are to be built at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant in western Ukraine. The timeline is more advanced than the one announced previously, which did not specify that all four reactors would be built simultaneously.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Biden calls on Congress to approve F-16 sale to Turkey.  President Joe Biden sent a letter to leaders of key Capitol Hill committees telling them that he intends to start the formal notification process for the sale of Lockheed Martin F-16 aircraft to Turkey.  Biden urged Congressional leaders to back this move and approve the deal.  The $20 billion sale is contingent on Turkey completing Sweden's NATO accession process.  The Turkish parliament ratified Sweden’s NATO membership bid on Tuesday, sending it to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for final approval. The timeline for the F-16 sale notification remains unclear. Some lawmakers say they are seeking assurances from Turkey that it will fully approve Sweden’s NATO application before moving forward on the fighter jet deal. Lawmakers also expressed concern about other issues, including Turkish attacks on Syrian Kurds, aggressive actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, and role in supporting Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.  Reuters New York Times Bloomberg 

Canadian commission seeks information on India in foreign interference probe.  An independent commission in Canada investigating potential foreign interference has requested information from the government regarding possible meddling in elections by India. The request comes after allegations linking Indian agents to the murder of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which India has rejected. The commission is also looking into alleged interference by China and Russia. The commission aims to assess the government's ability to detect, deter, and counter foreign interference and is expected to deliver an interim report by May 3 and a final report by the end of the year.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan government’s crackdown on opposition worries Biden administration.  Assistant Secretary of State Brian Nichols tweeted Tuesday that the U.S. is“Deeply concerned by recent actions against the opposition & civil society in Venezuela based on unsupported allegations.” President Nicolás Maduro has recently stepped up pressure on opponents. On Monday, the government said it had arrested eight people and ordered the arrest of six more, including journalists, human rights activists and military officers, for allegedly plotting to assassinate a state governor and Maduro. Bloomberg

Venezuela, Guyana holding talks in Brazil over disputed Essequibo region.  Venezuela and Guyana’s foreign ministers are meeting in Brazil on Thursday to discuss mitigating tensions over the disputed Essequibo territory. The talks will be the first under the so-called Argyle declaration in Brasilia.  They come after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro met his Guyanese counterpart on December 14 in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, where they agreed to establish a joint ministerial commission on the dispute and pledged to not use arms or inflammatory rhetoric that could escalate tensions.  In late December, Maduro deployed troops to counter a British Royal Navy patrol boat that held military exercises with Guyana, but withdrew them after the ship left.  Bloomberg

Asia and Oceania

U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan Strait.  The U.S. Navy said the destroyer USS John Finn transited through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the first such transit of 2024.  The vessel sailed “beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state” in a demonstration of Washington’s commitment to freedom of navigation.  The transit came as a U.S. congressional delegation visited Taipei in a show of support after Taiwan’s election.  China’s military said it monitored the destroyer during its transit and that it “openly hyped” up the passage.  A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson also condemned the U.S. for causing “trouble and provocation” and said that Chinese forces will continue “relevant military operations” around the Taiwan Strait.  Reuters Reuters USNI News

Taiwan president-elect Lai urges continued backing from U.S.  Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-te expressed hope for continued strong support from the U.S. during a meeting with the first group of U.S. lawmakers to visit Taipei since his election. Lai emphasized the shared values of democracy and freedom with the U.S. and underscored Taiwan's strategic importance in countering China. Lai pledged to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and urged the U.S. to deepen cooperation, enhance relations, and support Taiwan's self-defense capabilities. U.S. lawmakers assured Lai of bipartisan support for Taiwan.  Reuters Barron's 

Taiwan begins extended one-year military conscription.  Taiwan has initiated its extended one-year compulsory military service for new recruits. President Tsai Ing-wen announced the extension in 2022 over concerns that Taiwan’s military, including reservists, was insufficient to address China’s rising military threat. The first batch of recruits under the extension, totaling 670, began their service on Thursday.  Conscripts will undergo intensified training, including shooting exercises, instruction used by U.S. forces, and handling advanced weaponry like Stinger anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. The U.S. has supported the conscription effort and Taiwan's other military reforms to strengthen its defense capabilities. China criticized the conscription extension when it was announced in 2022, accusing Taiwan of using its people as "cannon fodder.”  Reuters

OPINION — What a vote for democracy means for Taiwan. Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe DeTrani writes about how the victory of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te in Taiwan’s presidential election signals a victory for democracy and a rejection of China's attempts to influence the vote. China's intimidation tactics, including military maneuvers and disinformation efforts, failed to sway voters who prioritized democratic freedoms. DeTrani highlighted the impact of China's actions in Hong Kong, particularly the imposition of the National Security Law, on Taiwan's electorate. He adds that China's response to the election outcome will be closely monitored and emphasizes the need for enhanced deterrence to encourage a peaceful resolution of issues with Taiwan.  The Cipher Brief

North Korea claims to test new-generation strategic cruise missile.  North Korea claimed it tested its new “Pulhwasal-3 31” strategic cruise missile on Wednesday.  North Korean state media said the test was part of the process of updating weapons systems and had “nothing” to do with the regional situation, likely referring to heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula.  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the firing was likely to test upgrades of existing missiles’ capabilities.  Seoul had earlier said it observed the North firing cruise missiles off its west coast early on Wednesday.  Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press

South Korea starts production of surveillance spy drones.  South Korea’s state-run procurement agency, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), said it started mass production of medium-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) to bolster military surveillance of North Korea, as well as contribute to defense exports. DAPA signed a $353.6 million deal with Korean Air and defense companies LIG Nex1 and Hanwha Systems to built the drones by 2028.  Yonhap News

Russia’s Lavrov accuses U.S., Japan, South Korea of preparing for war with North Korea.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the U.S., South Korea, and Japan of preparing for war with North Korea by increasing military activity and conducting large-scale exercises. Lavrov also criticized South Korea’s “hostile” rhetoric towards Pyongyang, as well as reports that Japan is seeking to set up NATO infrastructure. He added that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s announcement that North Korea will not pursue peaceful reunification with the South is similar to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to Palestinian statehood after the Israel-Hamas war. His comments come after the U.S., Japan, and South Korea conducted combined naval exercises last week, the latest military drills aimed at countering North Korean nuclear threats. Lavrov’s remarks also come as Russia and North Korea strengthen relations. A South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson dismissed Lavrov’s comments as a reflection of North Korea’s “false and misleading claims.”  Associated Press 

Powerful waves damage U.S. military base in Marshall Islands, underscoring vulnerability to rising sea levels.  Unexpected waves flooded Roi-Namur in the Marshall Islands, forcing evacuations from the U.S. Army Garrison Kwajalein Atoll and causing damage at the base that could take months to repair. The military base is 2,300 miles southwest of Hawaii and supports a missile range and testing facility. It had 120 personnel on the island, 80 of whom were evacuated.  Housing and facilities, including the base’s dining facility, chapel, and theater, suffered moderate to severe damage.  Roi-Namur and the rest of the Marshall Islands are extremely vulnerable to climate change-induced rising sea levels.  New York Times

OPINION — U.S. must look to Pacific Islands to counter China.  Cipher Brief Expert Adm. (Ret.) James Stavridis writes in Bloomberg about the dual-edged impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Pacific and other regions. While the BRI aims to bolster China’s trade and diplomatic influence, it also ties developing countries into economic dependency on Beijing. He cited the Cook Islands' experience with dilapidated Chinese-built infrastructure under the BRI as an example of this dynamic. Stavridis stresses the need for the U.S. to counter China's geo-economic strategy in the Pacific, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa by providing funding for quality infrastructure projects and enhancing diplomatic and military presence in these regions. Current U.S. efforts include the establishment of an embassy in the Cook Islands, expansion of funding through allies like Australia and New Zealand, and increased military engagement in the region.  Bloomberg

China's defense ministry spokesperson says India border issue 'left over from history'.  Chinese defense ministry spokesperson Wu Qian told reporters today that border tensions with India are an issue “left over from history” and are not the whole story of relations between the two countries. He said it is “unwise and inappropriate” for the Indian government to insist on linking the border situation with bilateral relations. Earlier this month, an Indian official told Reuters that India could ease its heightened scrutiny of Chinese investment if the border remains peaceful.  Reuters

Navy chief says India has not ordered its defense personnel to withdraw from Maldives.  Indian Navy Chief Admiral R. Hari Kumar told CNN that India has not told its defense personnel to leave Maldives following a request from Masle. Ties between the two countries have been strained since President Mohmed Muizzu took office promising to end his country’s “India Fist” policy and later calling for the withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15. Approximately 80 Indian soldiers are stationed in Maldives to provide support for military equipment given by India to Maldives and to assist in humanitarian activities.  Reuters

Europe

Orban says Hungary will ratify Sweden’s NATO bid, top lawmaker signals no rush. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on X Wednesday that Hungary will ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO.  Orban made the announcement after speaking with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier Wednesday.  The Turkish parliament voted in favor of Sweden’s membership on Tuesday, leaving Hungary as the lone holdout. Orban said he would urge the Hungarian National Assembly to follow suit “at the first possible opportunity.” Despite Orban’s comments, Hungary’s parliament speaker, Laszlo Kover, said the chamber is in no “rush” to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid and that he personally does not currently support Sweden’s accession, though he said he hopes Sweden will “give him a reason” to change his mind. Kover’s comments appear to pressure Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to accept Orban’s invitation to Budapest to discuss bilateral ties, which would allow Orban a path to ratifying Sweden’s NATO bid while saving face.  New York Times Bloomberg Bloomberg  Hungarian PM Viktor Orban X Reuters Reuters 

NATO starts largest military exercises since the Cold War.  Around 90,000 troops from NATO allied nations are participating in the Steadfast Defender 2024 drills, which will run through May.  Over 50 naval vessels, more than 80 military aircraft, and at least 1,100 combat vehicles are taking part.  The drills will rehearse NATO defense plans in response to a hostile attack, namely from Russia.  Reuters

U.K. General calls for Britain to prepare for potential conflict with Russia.  The UK's Chief of the General Staff, General Patrick Sanders, has urged the UK to enhance military readiness and prepare for the possibility of a land war with Russia, suggesting civilians might be conscripted. Sanders said the U.K.’s recent cuts to its army — from 72,500 personnel, down from 100,000 in 2010 — show that Britain isn’t taking the threat from Russia seriously enough.  He said the U.K. should aim for a standing army of 120,000 soldiers within three years, along with military modernization efforts. Sanders did not call for mandatory conscription for the military buildup but said that “preparatory steps” are needed to put NATO on “war footing,” adding that the Ukraine war has shown the effectiveness of “citizen armies.”  He also lauded Sweden’s military expansion as effective measures to prepare for potential conflict.  A spokesperson for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pushed back on Sanders’ remarks, saying there is currently no possibility for Britain to form a conscription-based army and that “hypothetical scenarios” that the U.K. may fight Russia “are not helpful.”  Kyiv Independent Politico The Independent Euronews The Guardian Associated Press 

NATO underestimating Russia’s war machine: Estonia military chief. Estonia's top military commander, Martin Herem, said fresh intelligence on Russia's military capabilities suggests NATO should reassess its defenses. Contrary to predictions that Russia would reach resource limits in its invasion of Ukraine, Herem said intelligence suggests Moscow still has the capacity to produce millions of artillery shells annually, surpassing European efforts, and recruit hundreds of thousands of troops. This intelligence on Russia’s capabilities coupled with bellicose rhetoric from Moscow has raised concerns about the threat to NATO, namely in the Baltic region. Herem noted that while he does not see Russia as a direct threat “today or tomorrow,” he warned that the risk to NATO will increase when Russia frees up resources from its war in Ukraine. “One year is enough for them to do something horrible in our direction,” he said.  Bloomberg

Middle East

U.S., Iraq to discuss future of U.S.-led military coalition amid calls for withdrawal.  The U.S. and Iraq are set to begin talks on the future of the U.S. military presence in Iraq. The discussions, part of a higher military commission formed last summer, will consider the next phase of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq now that the terror group has been greatly diminished. The talks come amid regional instability and Iraqi calls for U.S. troop withdrawal, triggered by recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran-backed militants in Iraq. Discussions will assess conditions for a potential U.S. withdrawal, with differing preferences on timing between the U.S. and some elements within the Iraqi government. The U.S. has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq in an advisory role since the end of their combat role in 2021. The U.S. also has a presence in Syria to fight ISIS, but administration officials say a withdrawal from Syria is not under consideration.  Reuters CNN 

Africa

Blinken swings across West Africa.  His aim: to “reassure nations that the continent is still a destination for U.S. dealmaking and policymakers” despite the U.S. preoccupation with wars in Israel/Gaza and Ukraine.  His trip aims to counter overtures from Russia and China. He is  visiting Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Angola, all experiencing tensions because of unrests in neighboring nations.  Washington Post 

U.S. drone base in Niger tied to country’s democracy.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the future of a key U.S. military drone base in Niger is dependent on the ruling junta’s efforts to restore democracy and release ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.  The U.S. cut development aid and suspended military operations at Air Base 201 after Niger’s coup in July.  Blinken said operations at the base could resume if Niger returns to constitutional order in the agreed time frame. In the meantime, the U.S. is reaching out to other states in West Africa to provide additional security support.  Bloomberg

Russian Troops Begin Burkina Faso Deployment to Bolster Security.  Russia deployed around 100 military personnel to Burkina Faso, marking its first significant deployment to the country. The Russian Africa Corps said this initial contingent, part of a planned force three times its size, will provide security for the president of Burkina Faso’s military regime and the Burkinabe people.  The pro-Russia Africa Initiative added that the troops, which it described as “military specialists,” will train Burkinabe troops and patrol dangerous areas.  Russia has been bolstering its security influence in West Africa, which has been plagued with coups and is struggling to counter jihadist insurgencies. The Africa Corps is set to replace Wagner Group mercenaries, which Russia initially used to exert influence in the Sahel region.  Bloomberg 

UAE denies arming paramilitary group in Sudan war. The United Arab Emirates has denied persistent allegations that it is arming the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group fighting Sudan’s military for control of the country.  A leaked UN document made available to the Financial Times found “credible” evidence that the UAE is sending weapons to the rebels.  The UAE has strongly denied taking any side in the conflict and said its flights deliver only humanitarian aid, such as medicine and equipment for a hospital. The fighting has killed more than 13,000 people, forced about 7.6 million people to flee and left almost 25 million in need of aid, the UN’s humanitarian affairs agency said. Financial Times

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Japan space agency optimistic with moon lander’s ‘pinpoint’ touchdown.  Japan’s space agency said its moon lander mission was a success, reporting that its Slim Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) had an unusually precise touchdown within 100 meters of its target. Japan said it hopes the “pinpoint” moon landing will revitalize its space program, which has suffered several setbacks in recent months.  Data about the lander’s touchdown was received in the 2 hours and 37 minutes before it lost power.  Reuters 

Key Wall Street securities lending firm hit by LockBit ransomware attack.  A key Wall Street securities-lending firm, EquiLend, has been hit by a cyberattack impacting several systems that may take days to restore.  The LockBit ransomware gang has claimed credit for the attack, stating through a spokesperson that it will try to negotiate a ransom payment with EquiLend to unlock the affected systems.  The company earlier said that a “technical issue” occurring on Monday knocked its systems offline, adding that it is working with cybersecurity experts to investigate and recover from the incident.   EquiLend was formed by a consortium of banks and brokers in 2001.  In December, it handled transactions amounting to $2.44 trillion.  An EquiLend representative did not immediately respond to requests for details on the systems intrusion.  Wall Street Journal Bloomberg CNN

NSF launches AI resource pilot to broaden access to research assets.  The National Science Foundation (NSF) on Wednesday launched the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource (NAIRR), a pilot program that will make federal assets such as advanced computing, datasets, and training models available a broad segment of the research community.  An NSF executive explained that resources needed to develop AI technologies are out-of-reach for many researchers and small organizations.  Katie Antypas, director of the NSF’s office of advanced cyberinfrastructure, described the NAIRR as “the first step to bridging this gap.”  The NAIRR pilot will focus on four areas:  general AI resource access, research on technologies to protect privacy, interoperable uses of AI tools, and educational initiatives and outreach.  Tech sector partners such as Anthropic, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI will provide access to AI models, collaborate in research, and offer technical training on proprietary software.  In addition, Nvidia and Mircrosoft have committed donations of $30 million and $20 million, respectively, to support NAIRR activities.  NextGov Axios

E.U. opens ‘AI Factories’ supercomputing resources to AI start-up firms.  Margrethe Vestager, E.U. vice president in charge of digital policy, on Wednesday announced the launch of the community’s AI Factories, a resource designed to provide European tech start-up firms with a “one-stop shop” at which computing power, data, and research support will be made available.  Vestager noted that substantial amounts of computing power are needed to develop AI, a requirement the AI Factories will fill by providing “privileged access” to European supercomputers for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME’s).  In announcing its “AI innovation package,” the E.U. Commission plans to support the European AI ecosystem with high performance computing infrastructure as well as technical expertise.  A Commission official noted that Europe boasts hundreds of promising start-ups in generative AI and related areas that need access to the “key ingredients” of AI – data, computing power, algorithms, and talent.  TechCrunch Reuters

Ukrainian hackers say attack caused extensive damage to Russian research center.  Systems at a Russian scientific research center have been compromised by pro-Ukraine hackers resulting in extensive damage to systems and data, according to Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate (GUR).  The hacktivist group BO Team launched a cyberattack on Russia’s State Research Center on Space Hydrometeorology, known as “Planeta”, and reportedly destroyed its database and equipment.  Planeta processes data from domestic and foreign earth observation satellites for Russian government components.  The GUR said that the BO Team attacked Planeta’s eastern branch, the largest of the organization’s three divisions.  The hackers say their intrusion resulted in the destruction of 280 servers and 2PB of data, including weather and satellite information and “unique research.”  The cyberattack reportedly also disabled the station's air conditioning and humidification systems, as well as the emergency power supply.   Describing the scope of the attack, the GUR said that “dozens of strategic Russian companies, which work for defense and play a key role in supporting the Russian occupation forces, will remain without critically important information and services for a long time.”  The Record

Ukraine contact group commits drone, counter-drone, other capabilities to Kyiv.  A meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is led by the Pentagon, has committed to new efforts to supply Ukraine’s military with drones and armored vehicles so that it remains “ahead of the curve” in the continued conflict with Russia. Celeste Wallander, assistant defense secretary for international security affairs, commended the creativity of Ukrainian forces in using drone capabilities while noting that “the Russians also adapted and learned how to use these capabilities.”  She said the drone initiative will focus on the evolving multi-domain and multifunctional roles that uncrewed aerial vehicles have on the battlefield.  Latvia will take the lead in delivering thousands of drones to Ukraine, an initiative Wallander said aims to help Kyiv discover new ways of using drones and to counter “the new ways that the Russians are using them against them.”  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who attended the meeting virtually, said that the UDCG has established six capability coalitions providing support to Ukraine’s Air Force, air defenses, artillery, maritime security, de-mining, and information technology.  DefenseOne DefenseScoop BreakingDefense

China using Tiangong space station to test advanced dual-use chips.  Chinese scientists familiar with the country’s extraterrestrial chip testing program report that the Tiangong space station is being used to test over 100 processors simultaneously, which has led to successful tests of more than 20 high-performance chips in the 28 to 16nm process range.  According to Chinese sources, the Tiangong test chips were designed and fabricated exclusively in China and were run on a domestically developed SpaceOS operating system.  Reportedly, supply missions routinely transport large numbers of confidential new chips for civilian or military use to be installed on the space station exterior for rigorous radiation testing.  The space station’s large-scale testing operation is expected to help China develop advanced protection technologies and allow as many suppliers as possible to compete on an equal platform.  South China Morning Post

Chinese-led international team discovers new material with quantum applications.  An international team led by Chinese researchers has discovered a new material that could create ultra-low temperatures needed for applications such as quantum computing.   After years of experiments, the team at a Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) laboratory in Beijing has produced a cobalt-based quantum magnetic “supersolid” material, a solid structure that also behaves like a fluid.  The discovery is especially important for China, which depends on helium imports – the coolant traditionally used for ultra-low temperatures – from Western sources, including the U.S.   China could face U.S. export restrictions on such materials in the future.  The newly discovered material was observed cooling to below 1 Kelvin and could be used to achieve ultra-low temperatures.  Sun Peijie, a CAS professor and co-author of the report, described the search of super-cooling materials as “an emerging frontier,” adding that “this study shows that we can theoretically achieve extremely low temperatures without relying on helium.”  The research team was made up of scientists from the CAS, Beihang University’s School of Physics, and the Institut Laue-Langevin’s Jülich Centre for Neutron Science in France.  South China Morning Post

Hackers stole $1.7 billion from cryptocurrency platforms last year. Chainalysis, a cybersecurity company focusing on cryptocurrency, estimated that thefts by hackers were down 54.3 percent from 2022, but the number of crypto hacking incidents grew slightly, from 219 to 231.  Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief