Report for Thursday, January 23, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, January 23, 2025

Trump Threatens Taxes, Tariffs and Sanctions on Russia if Putin Won’t End War in Ukraine

U.S. re-designates Yemeni Houthi group as a terrorist organization

Over 100,000 people flee eastern Congo’s largest city as M23 rebels’ advance

Chinese military drone can be launched into air from submarine and return

Musk challenges viability of AI infrastructure project; OpenAI’s Altman offers rebuttal

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Can the U.S. better manage the Gray Zone? The gray zone is defined as the geopolitical space between peace and war where nations conduct activities to advance their national interests and weaken their adversaries without triggering a military response.  Understanding and managing it is crucial to future U.S. national security.  Dave Pitts, a former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia, says we’re in a gray war already. As an experienced hand at dealing with tricky targets, he has some ideas for how the U.S. can – and must –develop and adapt capabilities for the gray zone.   For instance, a UK-led maritime force called Operation Nordic Warden is using AI to monitor threats to undersea infrastructure more precisely , specifically Russia’s shadow fleet—aka Ghost Fleet—that also enables Russia to avoid U.S. sanctions.  The Cipher Brief  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump Threatens Taxes, Tariffs and Sanctions on Russia if Putin Won’t End War in Ukraine. President Donald Trump has shifted to an aggressive stance toward Russia, threatening tariffs and sanctions unless President Vladimir Putin ends Russia’s war on Ukraine. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump declared, “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.” He emphasized his approach as a “big FAVOR” to Russia, urging Putin to “STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.” Trump has repeatedly claimed he could broker peace swiftly, asserting that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “wants to make a deal” while expressing doubt about Putin’s willingness. Earlier this week, Trump remarked on the war's toll: “He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week, and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good.” Despite small and declining trade between the U.S. and Russia, Trump’s rhetoric signals a tougher line against Moscow. Analysts highlight potential new measures targeting Russia’s oil exports or sanctions on nations aiding its war effort. However, critics note Putin’s geopolitical ambitions often outweigh economic pressures. Wall Street Journal Reuters Axios Politico EU Financial Times The Hill

Putin growing concerned by Russia’s economy as Trump pushes for Ukraine deal. According to Kremlin insiders, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly concerned about Russia's strained wartime economy, with high inflation, labor shortages, and surging military spending contributing to economic distortions. Russia's central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, slowing private investment and prompting criticism from business leaders. Putin expressed frustration during a December meeting with officials, citing the impact of high rates on growth. Despite earlier resilience under Western sanctions, Russia’s $2.2 trillion economy will see slow GDP growth below 1.5% in 2025. As President Donald Trump pushes for a Ukraine peace deal, Kremlin sources suggest economic pressures are driving elite support for negotiations. Trump has warned of further sanctions if Russia does not cooperate. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, trusted by Putin, faces pressure from top bankers and business leaders to ease rates. Critics argue that inflation stems from record defense spending, making economic challenges difficult to resolve without a diplomatic end to the war. Reuters

Zelensky Says US Must Be Part of Any Ukraine Peacekeeping Force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy underscored the need for U.S. participation in any peacekeeping force, stating, “It can’t be without the United States.” In an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he dismissed the sufficiency of European military support alone. He stressed the U.S.'s pivotal role in deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin and offering security guarantees. Zelensky urged China to leverage its influence, saying President Xi Jinping “can push Putin for peace, I’m sure.”  Zelensky also warned against short-term ceasefires, asserting they allow Russia to rearm. Regarding domestic challenges, he opposed lowering the draft age, currently at 25, arguing, “Why mobilize even younger people? So that there are even more people without weapons?” Bloomberg

Trump special envoy criticizes NATO allies for spending too little. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, on Thursday criticized allies who favor continuing Ukraine’s defense against Russia but still won’t increase their defense spending to NATO guidelines. Speaking via video link to a panel on Ukraine held on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. NATO leaders have agreed that each member country should spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on their military budgets. The alliance estimates that 23 of 32 members will reach that level this year. “You cannot ask the American people to expand the umbrella of NATO when the current members aren’t paying their fair share,” Grenell said. The United States spends most within NATO on its own budget, in dollar terms, and allies rely on its military might for their defense. “When we have leaders who are going to talk about more war, we need to make sure that those leaders are spending the right amount of money,” Grenell said. “We need to be able to avoid war, and that means a credible threat from NATO.” He also insisted that former President Joe Biden was wrong not to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was indicted for war crimes in 2023 by the International Criminal Court for the “unlawful deportation” of children from Ukraine to Russia. “You should be able to talk to people,” Grenell said. “Talking is a tactic, and you’re not going to be able to solve problems peacefully unless you actually have conversations.” Associated Press

Ahead of the expected Trump-Putin call, each side stakes out its position. Amid preparations for a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, both sides are positioning themselves for potential negotiations to end the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. Russian officials are doubling down on demands, with hardliners advocating Ukraine’s capitulation, NATO’s rollback, and Moscow’s retention of annexed territories. Putin aide Nikolai Patrushev has even suggested Ukraine could cease to exist by year’s end, reflecting maximalist goals for Russian dominance. Trump has promised a swift resolution, threatening heavy sanctions if Putin does not negotiate. While the Kremlin sees a narrow opportunity to work with Trump, pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov expects any agreements to be limited. Economic pressures complicate Putin’s stance. With inflation rising and defense spending consuming 40% of Russia’s budget, continued war poses risks, although hardliners say Russia will fight for decades to subjugate Ukraine if necessary. Some U.S. observers worry Trump might concede to Russian demands, allowing Putin to frame the outcome as a victory. Meanwhile, Trump’s own rhetoric about seeking territorial acquisitions for the U.S. has raised concerns about his potential to disrupt the post-World War II rules-based order, echoing elements of Putin’s worldview. Washington Post

Russia lacks manpower for a major breakthrough in Ukraine, top NATO general says. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, said that Russia lacks the manpower for a breakthrough in Ukraine. “I'm not worried that Ukraine could suddenly lose. I don't see the potential for a massive (Russian) breakthrough," Cavoli said.  He attributed this to Ukraine's effective defenses and Russia's difficulties despite slow and incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Cavoli described Russia's incremental gains as "exhausting" for its military, highlighting its reliance on foreign troops, including a 12,000-strong North Korean contingent. He acknowledged uncertainty over U.S. military aid under President Donald Trump but noted increased European contributions. He predicted manpower shortages will continue to shape the war.  Kyiv Independent

NATO chief Rutte says Europe will fund US weapons for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday called for the U.S. to continue supplying Ukraine and said Europe would pay the bill. Speaking at an event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the NATO chief said the alliance must invest more in defense, ramp up defense industrial production and take on a bigger share of spending on help for Ukraine. "If this new Trump administration is willing to keep on supplying Ukraine from its defense industrial base, the bill will be paid by the Europeans, I'm absolutely convinced of this, we have to be willing to do that," he said.  Rutte also said it was vital Russia did not win as it could result in Russian President Vladimir Putin “high fiving” the leaders of North Korea and China. "We really have to step up and not scale back our support for Ukraine," the NATO chief said. "The frontline is moving in the wrong direction.” Rutte also said the costs for NATO, in terms of credibility and military spending, will be much higher if Russia wins. “If Ukraine loses then to restore the deterrence of the rest of NATO again, it will be a much, much higher price than what we are contemplating at this moment in terms of ramping up our spending and ramping up our industrial production,” Rutte said. “It will not be billions extra; it will be trillions extra,” he said, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Reuters  Associated Press

Will Europe put ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine?  Discussions on deploying European troops to Ukraine have resurfaced, influenced by Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his push for a ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron initially proposed such an idea, which was deemed too risky. But Ukraine’s military challenges, dwindling NATO prospects, and the need for strong security guarantees have revived talks. Critics highlight risks, logistical hurdles, and public opposition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that if Europe is serious about providing an effective deterrent, 200,000 troops will be needed, a figure regarded by some as unrealistically high, with a security force of 50,000 troops seen as more likely. Financial Times

Israel Offers to Transfer Russian-Made Weapons to Ukraine.  During a meeting between Israeli Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sharren Haskel and Ukrainian Ambassador Yevgen Korniychuk, Israel proposed transferring seized Russian-made weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Embassy in Israel called this a key step toward addressing shared threats from Iran and Russia. Many of these weapons, captured during Israel's conflicts with Hezbollah, include Draganov rifles and Kornet missiles. Discussions also covered mutual security concerns, particularly Iran’s arms support to Russia and militant groups. Russia and Iran recently signed a strategic pact enhancing their military cooperation, with Tehran supplying drones used in Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine. Defense Post

Opposition wants to end Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine.  A Czech opposition leader whose party is leading in the polls for autumn’s parliamentary elections wants to end the nation’s initiative to supply Ukraine with large-caliber ammunition. Karel Havlíček, deputy leader of the ANO party, said the focus should be on negotiations with Russia, considering that Ukraine is losing territory on the battlefield. The Czech government estimates that around half a million rounds of 155mm ammunition were supplied to Ukraine last year, reducing Russia's artillery advantage. The ruling center-right coalition remains committed to the program, arguing that it serves Ukraine's urgent needs and upholds Czech security interests by countering Russia's expansionist ambitions. “Innocent people are dying, all because of Putin's aggression and imperialist appetites. We know very well what the policy of appeasement has led to and how it ends,” Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová said.  Euractiv

One dead, 25 injured in Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. One person was killed and 25 others wounded in a Russian drone and missile attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, regional officials said on Thursday. More than 20,000 residents were also left without power and another 17,000 without heating as a result of the overnight attack, according to Governor Ivan Fedorov, who said an energy facility had been destroyed. Russia has carried out regular air strikes on Ukrainian towns and cities behind the front line of its three-year-old invasion, targeting the country's weakened energy grid in particular. Reuters

Ukrainian drones attack city near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, officials say. Ukrainian drones targeted Enerhodar, near the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, on Wednesday, according to Russia-installed officials. At least four drones reportedly struck, causing power and water disruptions but no casualties. Russia-appointed Acting Mayor Maksim Pukha called the attack a "terrorist act," accusing Ukraine of targeting civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian officials reported five drones hitting Zaporizhzhia city, 60 kilometers away, with fires and damage. Both sides continue to blame each other for endangering the nuclear facility. Reuters

If it depended on Ukraine, the war would be over tomorrow, says Zelensky’s top aide. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky, emphasized at Davos on Wednesday, that Ukraine seeks to end Russia's war through a "just peace," reflecting the nation’s resilience and commitment to democratic values. He stated, "If it depended on Ukraine, the war would be over tomorrow." Yermak highlighted Ukraine as a victim of aggression, stressing the need for Europe and the U.S. to unite in support. While addressing Donald Trump’s claim to end the war in 24 hours, Yermak underscored that victory equates to peace, achieved collaboratively with Ukraine's allies. Euronews

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 22. The Kremlin is conducting an information operation to project economic stability despite persistent macroeconomic distress, including high inflation, labor shortages, and unsustainable defense spending. Russia is building its manpower reserve through the All-Russian Cossack Society, training members in defense tactics to bolster its mobilization capacity. North Korea plans to send additional troops to Russia by mid-March 2025 to sustain infantry-led assaults despite high casualty rates. Russian milbloggers expressed concern over uncertainties regarding Russia’s military presence in Syria following claims of suspended investments in the Tartus port. Russia may resume gas deliveries to Transnistria via TurkStream, potentially bypassing sanctions while influencing Moldovan public opinion. Russia and Uzbekistan are expanding their military cooperation.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces regained positions near Toretsk amid Russian advances in areas including Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine is failing the mobilization test. Illia Krotenko, a sergeant with the Ukrainian Ground Forces, critiques Ukrainian society’s resistance to mobilization, describing it as a threat to national defense. He notes nearly 6 million men have avoided updating enlistment records, while public outrage targets forced conscription of young adults. Society resists sending poorly trained recruits to the infantry, viewed as a degrading role, and avoids transitioning the economy to a wartime footing. Krotenko stresses, “If we want the world to protect democracy in Ukraine, Ukrainians themselves must defend it first.” He criticizes the government and parliament for failing to implement necessary but unpopular mobilization policies, emphasizing that holding the front line requires political decisions and reserves. He argues reforms are meaningless without additional personnel and calls on political leaders to take decisive action, despite opposition and potential backlash. Krotenko warns Ukraine risks losing Western support if seen as weak, despite military aid. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Donald Trump Can Bring the End of Vladimir Putin’s Rule. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian argue that Donald Trump has the tools to destabilize Vladimir Putin’s regime and end Russia’s war on Ukraine through robust economic pressure. They highlight Russia’s economic struggles, including reliance on costly oil production, depleted reserves, and a collapsing ruble. They suggest Trump’s plans to increase U.S. oil production and enforce stricter sanctions could choke Russia’s economy, as oil revenues are Putin’s lifeline. The authors compare this approach to Ronald Reagan’s Cold War strategy, emphasizing Trump’s potential to exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities. They note that Russia has lost 90% of its natural gas exports to Europe and faces unsustainable oil production costs of $44 per barrel. According to Sonnenfeld and Tian, decisive U.S. action could drive Putin to the brink, cutting his ability to sustain the war. They conclude Trump could “suffocate Russia’s economy” and deal a fatal blow to Putin’s regime. Time

Opinion: 3 possible explanations for Putin’s bravado. Alexander J. Motyl offers three explanations for Vladimir Putin's bravado amid Russia's failing war in Ukraine. First, Putin may be lying, using propaganda to mask failures, creating a “Potemkin illusion” of victory to control public perception. Second, he might be unaware of reality due to systemic distortions in his over-centralized regime, where subordinates report overly optimistic outcomes. Third, Putin could be delusional, living in a self-constructed parallel reality, which would explain his reckless decisions and nuclear threats. Motyl concludes that negotiations with Putin require toughness, as he likely won’t admit Russia’s weaknesses or his own errors. The Hill

AMERICAS

Trump escalates crackdown on immigration, warns city and state officials not to interfere. The Trump administration has scaled up its immigration crackdown by directing federal prosecutors to investigate and potentially prosecute state and local officials who resist federal enforcement efforts. A memo from Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove stressed that state and local authorities must cooperate with immigration enforcement, with potential legal consequences for obstruction. The Justice Department has also created a new unit to combat sanctuary city policies that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. This push includes legislative action, as the House recently passed a bill requiring the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of theft or violent crimes. Meanwhile, President Trump has ordered the deployment of 1,000 additional troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to bolster enforcement efforts. The new GOP administration’s sweeping policy changes have sparked sharp divisions among Americans, with public opinion split largely along party lines. Reuters

House passes immigrant detention bill as civil rights groups express alarm. The Laken Riley Act, named after a nursing student who was killed by an undocumented immigrant last year, passed the House and is now heading to President Donald Trump. The bill allows Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to detain undocumented immigrants accused of theft-related or violent crimes, and grants state attorneys general the power to sue the federal government over immigration decisions. It marks an early legislative victory for Trump, who has made immigration a central issue of his presidency. While Republicans support the bill as a step toward stricter immigration enforcement, critics argue it undermines due process and could result in indefinite detention for nonviolent offenses. The bill has sparked division among Democrats, with some supporting it to address voter concerns about border security, despite warnings from immigrant-rights groups that it could unleash lawsuits and harm vulnerable populations, such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. Washington Post Associated Press CNN NBC ABC 

Trump will need to secure significant funding for detention centers to fulfill campaign promises, deport ‘millions and millions.’ President Donald Trump’s mass deportation plans rely heavily on expanding the U.S. immigration detention system, which currently lacks the capacity to handle the scale of his administration’s goals. With approximately 11.7 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has the budget to detain only about 41,000 people daily. Expanding detention capacity would require significant funding, with the Laken Riley Act alone necessitating $26.9 billion to add 110,000 beds. Trump has also ended the “catch and release” policy, requiring all migrants to be detained while awaiting immigration court proceedings. Detention centers, including privately operated facilities and local jails, are already strained. ICE is considering expanding facilities across at least eight states, with private companies anticipating growth in demand. However, this expansion will require new infrastructure, which Congress must fund. Private investors and fast-track budgeting maneuvers in Congress could facilitate funding for new facilities. However, critics argue that the reliance on military bases and private detention centers reflects a troubling expansion of the immigration enforcement system. Associated Press 

Trump order could restore controversial Muslim 'travel ban,’ warn rights groups. U.S. civil rights groups are raising alarms over an order by President Donald Trump that they say could pave the way for reinstating travel bans targeting predominantly Muslim or Arab countries. The order, titled "Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and other National Security and Public Safety Threats," builds on Trump’s controversial 2017 travel ban and expands its scope by allowing visa denials or removals based on perceived hostility toward U.S. citizens, government, or culture. The order gives a 60-day window for officials to identify countries with inadequate vetting systems and potentially suspend admissions from those nations. It also establishes a process for revoking visas granted since January 2021, raising concerns about ideological exclusion and broad government authority to deny visas. Civil rights groups warn that the order could separate families, harm university enrollments, and target individuals for their political beliefs or participation in protests. Legal challenges may be forthcoming, with critics calling the order a "dangerous precedent." The policy reflects Trump's drive to impose stricter travel bans on countries like Libya, Syria, Yemen, and others deemed security threats, as well as blocking individuals with ideologies like communism or socialism. Reuters 

Mexico builds temporary shelters for migrants deported from U.S.  Mexican authorities are building vast tent shelters in Ciudad Juarez across from El Paso for large numbers of Mexicans deported from the U.S.  The temporary shelters in Juarez will give shelter to thousands of people.  They should be ready in a few days, according to  municipal official Enrique Licon. The Mexican government is constructing shelters and reception centers in eight other cities across northern Mexico. Deported Mexicans will be given food, temporary housing, medical care, help obtaining identity documents, and bus transportation back to their hometowns. Nearly 5 million Mexicans are living in the U.S. illegally without authorization, according to an analysis by Mexican think tank El Colegio de la Frontera Norte.  Some 800,000 undocumented Mexicans in the United States are from Michoacan, Guerrero, and Chiapas, according to the COLEF study, where fierce battles between cartels have driven civilians away. Mexico’s economy will take a hard hit  if millions of Mexicans are deported from the U.S. Reuters Associated Press 

At Davos, U.S. economic future under Trump looks bright – maybe too bright.   The elite economists and financiers attending the World Economic Forum at Davos expect U.S. fortunes to soar under President Donald Trump, attracting more foreign investment via lower taxes and regulation and cheaper energy.  U.S. trading partners are predicted to fare far worse, due to Trump’s tariffs. Bankers anticipate megamergers due to loosened antitrust policy, with U.S. companies acquiring European rivals.  Europe’s outlook is considered bleak, through the failures of its leaders and innovation-stifling regulation. Some European companies may relocate to the U.S. to avoid strict regulatory regimes. China’s problem, economists said, is not Trump’s tariffs but severe unemployment.  But some participants warned that Trump’s agenda is contradictory and could discourage movement of capital into the U.S. “Resisting the trade deficit and craving foreign capital is a logically inconsistent position,” said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.  Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff said that if protectionism and populism push inflation and interest rates higher, Trump might turn to controls on prices or the international flow of capital, both risky choices. Wall Street Journal

U.S. sentences man who stalked Chinese ex-official to 16 months in prison. The U.S. has sentenced Chinese national Zheng Congying to 16 months in prison for his role in a Beijing-linked pressure campaign targeting Chinese expatriates on American soil. He was one of three men convicted in the first trial highlighting U.S. allegations that China harasses dissidents and critics abroad, which Beijing denies. China frames its actions as part of its "Operation Fox Hunt" to return fugitives for prosecution. Zheng was convicted of stalking and conspiracy for leaving a threatening note at the New Jersey home of Xu Jin, a former Chinese official accused of bribery in China. The message urged him to return home and face a 10-year prison sentence and also mentioned Xu’s wife and children. Co-defendants Michael McMahon and Zhu Yong were also convicted, with Zhu sentenced to two years in prison and McMahon awaiting sentencing. Five other individuals who have been charged in the case remain in China. Associated Press 

Marco Rubio became secretary of state without a hitch. Keeping Trump’s favor may be harder.  While Marco Rubio was quickly and easily confirmed as secretary of state, staying in the good graces of his boss, President Donald Trump, may prove harder. The 53-year-old Rubio has more experience than Trump’s previous secretaries of state, having spent the last 14 years in the Senate becoming knowledgeable about U.S. foreign policy. But that traditional experience, coupled with Rubio’s long standing hawkish views on Russia and support for America’s role in NATO, is what some worry will eventually make him the target of Trump’s wrath. “I think Marco is a hawk, but he’s also an internationalist, and I think the challenge for him will be to maintain the long bipartisan tradition of America being indispensable in world affairs,” said Sen. Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat who served with Rubio on the Foreign Relations Committee. “And there are people in the Trump world who want us to run away from being the leaders of the free world. And I’m hoping that Marco’s instincts towards American strength will win the day.” Associated Press 

Rubio offers strong support to Venezuela’s embattled opposition leaders.  As one of his first orders of business, incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke Wednesday with Venezuela’s Edmundo González Urrutia – whom his press office called his nation’s “rightful president” and opposition leader María Corina Machado.  According to a State Department readout, Rubio “lauded the Venezuelan people’s courage in the face of repression perpetrated by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies” and “reaffirmed the United States’ support for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela as well as the unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners in line with the peaceful democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people.”  State Department 

Trump White House team sends home 160 government workers detailed to the National Security Council staff. Mike Waltz, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser on Wednesday sent home about 160 career government employees, mostly detailed to the National Security Council from the State Department, the FBI and the CIA. They were told they must be available to the council’s senior directors but should not report to the White House.  Waltz wants a staff committed to Trump’s goals. Officials said they are bringing in individuals with expertise the new administration needs, including some who had served during the first Trump administration. Several holdover detailees assigned to the counterterrorism directorate were told Tuesday that their assignments were being cut short.  Waltz “promised and authorized a full review of NSC personnel,” council spokesperson Brian Hughes said in a statement. “It is entirely appropriate for Mr. Waltz to ensure NSC personnel are committed to implementing President Trump’s America First agenda to protect our national security and wisely use the tax dollars of America’s working men and women. Since 12:01 pm on Monday personnel reviews and decisions based on the evaluations are being made.” Waltz recently told Breitbart News he wanted the NSC staff to be “100% aligned with the president’s agenda.” Associated Press  

Haitian gangs could take over capital without additional security aid, warns UN chief. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday warned that gangs in Haiti could overrun the capital, Port-au-Prince, leading to a complete collapse of government authority unless urgent international support is provided to bolster the embattled national police force. Guterres stressed that delays in deploying additional officers to the multinational force or providing more assistance could result in a “catastrophic collapse of national security institutions.” Kenya is leading the multinational force, with over 600 officers deployed, but the mission remains far short of its anticipated strength of 2,500. Gang violence killed over 5,600 people last year and forced over 1 million Haitians from their homes, exacerbating the country’s grim humanitarian crisis. Guterres condemned the gangs' brutality, including sexual violence and the use of child recruits, and noted setbacks in Haiti’s political process, warning that the goal of restoring democratic institutions by 2026 is at risk. Associated Press France 24

Colombian president Petro visits Haiti’s south. Colombian President Gustavo Petro visited Haiti on Wednesday as part of an effort to strengthen ties and explore joint projects in agriculture, technology, and the economy. Petro arrived in Jacmel, avoiding the violence-plagued capital, Port-au-Prince, where the airport is still closed to commercial flights due to security concerns. Haiti prepared extensively for the visit, investing $3.8 million in infrastructure improvements, including electricity restoration and airport upgrades. Petro’s trip underscores Colombia’s commitment to regional stability and support for Haiti amid its escalating crises. Associated Press Miami Herald Reuters The Straits Times     

Afghans who fled Taliban call on Trump to overturn refugee program suspension. Afghans who fled the Taliban's rule have appealed to U.S. President Donald Trump to reverse his suspension of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP), a decision that has left thousands in limbo. Over 15,000 Afghans, including those who worked with U.S. forces and advocates at risk of Taliban persecution, are stranded in Pakistan, where conditions are increasingly difficult. Many face arbitrary arrests, deportations, and insecurity. The suspension, announced by the Trump administration this week, halts refugee resettlement for at least three months and has canceled travel plans for over 1,600 Afghans who had already been approved. This includes interpreters, contractors, and family members of U.S. military personnel. Refugees in Pakistan, including women denied education by the Taliban, express fear of returning to Afghanistan and frustration over delays in resettlement. Advocacy groups and individuals are urging the White House to reconsider the decision. Some Afghans are also in Albania, awaiting final resettlement in the U.S.  Associated Press

EUROPE

Skeptical of Russia's data, some Western officials judge its economy by looking at Moscow from space. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson criticized Russia’s economic claims, stating, “The Russian economy is definitely not as strong as Putin wants us to believe.” Svantesson highlighted nighttime satellite images of Moscow, showing dimmer lighting in 2023 compared to 2021, as evidence of economic decline. She dismissed Russia's 9.5% inflation figure, noting it doesn’t align with its 21% interest rate, and cited high capital outflows as another indicator of trouble. “There is over Moscow...a much darker picture,” she emphasized, underscoring the impact of Western sanctions since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Business Insider

EU trade chief to Trump: Let’s deal. European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič signaled readiness Wednesday to negotiate with President Donald Trump's administration, offering a cooperative approach despite the U.S. president's repeated tariff threats. Speaking at the World Economic Forum, Šefčovič emphasized the importance of transatlantic trade, representing over 40% of global GDP. EU officials, including Ursula von der Leyen, hinted at strategies to deter tariffs, such as increasing U.S. LNG imports and military purchases. While Trump criticized the EU for a $350 billion trade deficit, Šefčovič avoided confrontation, stressing mutual benefits and proposing a cooperation package to address American concerns and strengthen economic ties. Politico EU

EU needs to end its military dependency on the US and arm itself ‘to survive,’ says Tusk. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, addressing European Union lawmakers in Strasbourg on Wednesday, urged the bloc to boost military spending, warning, “If Europe is to survive, it must be armed.” In paraphrasing John F. Kennedy, Tusk said, “Ask not of America what it can do for our security. Ask yourselves what we can do for our own security.” He highlighted Poland’s defense spending near 5% of GDP, calling on EU nations to match it. Associated Press 

Trump whisperer? Italy's Meloni navigates a high-stakes relationship. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has forged a close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, attending his inauguration and visiting Mar-a-Lago twice in a month. Trump called her a "fantastic woman," while Meloni praised him as a strong leader capable of balancing diplomacy and deterrence. Analysts see this partnership as an opportunity for Meloni to influence U.S.-Europe relations but warn of risks. Italy's large trade surplus with the U.S. and low defense spending could make it vulnerable to Trump's protectionist policies. Meloni's prioritization of Italian interests, including a potential Starlink deal, may strain ties with the EU. Reuters

Tech billionaires want to ‘overthrow democracy’ with social media, Spain PM Sánchez says. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warned Wednesday that tech billionaires aim to “overthrow democracy” via social media during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “The technology that was intended to free us has become the tool of our own oppression,” he said, criticizing platforms for fostering division, manipulation, and disinformation. He proposed EU regulations, including user identification to combat fake profiles and leveraging the Digital Services Act against tech elites. Sánchez highlighted that social media empowers elites prioritizing wealth over democracy, stating, “Social media tycoons should be held accountable if their algorithms poison our societies.” Politico EU

Scholz hardens rhetoric on migrants after fatal knife attack. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has intensified his rhetoric on migration following a fatal knife attack in southern Germany that killed two people, including a two-year-old boy. The 28-year-old Afghan suspect, who arrived in 2022 and had a history of mental illness, had declared plans to leave Germany but remained. Scholz questioned why the suspect was still in the country and called for urgent investigation and consequences. With migration a key issue ahead of the February 23 election, Scholz faces criticism from opponents like the far-right AfD and conservatives, who link migration to public safety concerns. Politico EU Associated Press BBC The Guardian Euronews   

Italy is under fire from the International Criminal Court for releasing a Libya warlord accused of war crimes. Italy’s release of Libyan warlord Ossama al-Masri, accused by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of war crimes, has sparked international outrage. Arrested in Turin on Sunday, al-Masri was freed on Tuesday due to a procedural error, despite an ICC warrant citing murder, torture, and rape at Libya’s Mitiga prison. He was repatriated to Tripoli aboard an Italian government plane, where supporters celebrated his return. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, condemned the decision as a "stunning blow" to justice. Critics, including Matteo Renzi, accused Italy’s government of hypocrisy, citing its ties to Libya for migration control as a conflict of interest.  Associated Press Politico The Hill  

THE MIDDLE EAST

Russian submarines may be forced out of Mediterranean. Russia faces the potential loss of its strategic naval base in Tartus, Syria, after the new Syrian government terminated a 49-year lease brokered in 2019 with the Bashar al-Assad regime. This decision follows the overthrow of Moscow-backed Assad and marks a significant blow to Russia’s Mediterranean presence. Russian cargo ships began evacuating military assets from Tartus this week, signaling the probable end of its operations there. Tartus, crucial for servicing Russia’s diesel-electric submarines, had enabled consistent undersea deployments since 2013. Without it, Russia’s submarines would rely on occasional visits to less-equipped ports, limiting their effectiveness. Alternatives in North Africa, including Algeria and Libya, are under consideration, though logistical and political challenges remain. Russia’s Khmeimim airbase in Latakia remains operational, but the loss of Tartus complicates Moscow’s regional strategy, including its ability to support operations in Africa. Naval experts predict difficulty in sustaining Russia’s Mediterranean submarine presence. The Telegraph 

Iran tries and fails to convince the West it doesn’t want the bomb.  Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's vice-president for strategic affairs, told Western leaders in Davos Wednesday that his nation doesn’t want nuclear weapons.  His credibility was undercut by a warning from International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi that Tehran is "pressing the gas pedal" in enriching uranium to near weapons-grade.  U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that Iran must improve relations with the U.S. and Middle Eastern neighbors by making it clear it doesn’t plan to develop nuclear weapons.  In 2018, then-President Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and re-imposed harsh U.S. sanctions as part of his "maximum pressure" policy on Iran. Tehran responded by accelerating its uranium enrichment. Grossi said last month that Iran had informed the IAEA that it would "dramatically" accelerate enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, closer to the roughly 90% of weapons grade. He added, "One can gather from the first statements from President Trump and some others in the new administration that there is a disposition, so to speak, to have a conversation and perhaps move into some form of an agreement," he said.  Reuters 

Syria's new leaders turn to Islamic law in effort to rebuild Assad's police. Syria's new authorities are using Islamic teachings to train a fledgling police force, a move officers say aims to instill a sense of morality as they race to fill a security vacuum after dismantling ousted president Bashar al-Assad's notoriously corrupt and brutal security forces. Ensuring stability and winning the trust of people across Syria will be crucial for the Sunni Muslim Islamists to cement their rule. But the move to put religion at the center of policing risks seeding new rifts in a diverse country awash with guns after 13 years of civil war and alienating foreign governments they have been trying to woo, regional analysts warn. Reuters

Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600 billion in U.S., crown prince says in call with Trump. In a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced plans for Saudi Arabia to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years. The investments aim to broaden trade ties between the two nations, though specifics were not disclosed by the state-run Saudi Press Agency, who published the readout on Thursday. The kingdom's reliance on U.S.-made weapons and defense systems could be part of the plans, alongside Saudi investments in American businesses and sports. Trump's 2017 visit to the country as his first foreign trip broke tradition and underscored close ties with the kingdom. Trump hinted at a potential return to Saudi Arabia, noting their past agreement to buy $450 billion worth of U.S. products. The announcement comes as Riyadh faces budget pressures from lower oil revenues and major expenses for domestic projects like the $500 billion NEOM city and preparations for the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Despite the kingdom's controversies, including the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the U.S.-Saudi relationship remains close. The investment pledge reflects ongoing cooperation, even as Saudi Arabia pursues broader diplomatic and trade goals. Associated Press 

Israeli security forces plunge into West Bank with counterterrorism campaign.  Israel launched a major counterterrorism operation in the West Bank Tuesday,  with drone strikes and raids in Jenin that killed 10, some as young as 16, Israel said Wednesday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the operation is part of Israel’s campaign against Iran and its proxies. This is the third major Israeli military operation in Jenin’s refugee camp in less than two years. Hamas has called on Palestinians to increase attacks against Israel from the platform of the West Bank.  On Saturday, a 19-year-old Palestinian from Tulkarem, another city in the northern West Bank, severely stabbed an Israeli in Tel Aviv. Earlier this month, Palestinian gunmen from Jenin opened fire on Israeli civilian vehicles driving in the West Bank, killing three. There is pressure from far-right officials in Israel’s governing coalition to crack down on militants in the West Bank.  The Palestinian Authority, which governs most Palestinians in the West Bank, criticized the Israeli operation, saying it displaced families and destroyed civilian properties.   Wall Street Journal Associated Press 

Israel reports killing of suspected militant in Gaza as tenuous truce holds. The Israeli military reported killing a suspected militant in Gaza on Wednesday, marking the first such incident since a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began on Sunday. The military stated that soldiers identified and "eliminated" Akram Atef Farhan Zanon, an alleged member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group, after spotting armed suspects in southern Gaza. The ceasefire, which includes a six-week pause in fighting and a swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, remains in place, though it is unclear if this incident will affect the agreement. Israel and Hamas are expected to begin negotiations soon to extend the truce. The Israeli military has emphasized its commitment to the ceasefire but stated it would act against perceived threats. Associated Press 

Cindy McCain says aid workers can move into Gaza in force, thanks to cease-fire.  Cindy McCain, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Program, says aid workers in Gaza are seeing "smooth sailing" after the cease-fire deal.  Interviewed at Davos, McCain said Egyptian and Jordanian officials had been particularly helpful, but other countries in the region hadn't been. "I am hopeful that with this ceasefire now, countries will...want to participate, understand the need to participate." She said it was unclear whether U.S. support for the work in Gaza would continue with a change of power in Washington, but she said she hoped government funding would continue. "If the world sees the U.S. pull out—whoa, talk about instability,” she said. Asked if she had spoken with members of the new Trump administration, McCain said she had a back channel.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. re-designates Yemeni Houthi group as a terrorist organization. The White House on Wednesday announced that U.S. President Donald Trump has re-designated Yemen's Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, as a "foreign terrorist organization" (FTO), imposing harsher economic penalties. The move comes in response to the Iranian-backed Houthis' repeated attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, including sinking ships, seizing vessels, and killing seafarers, which have disrupted global trade and forced costly rerouting. The group claims these actions are in solidarity with Palestinians over the Israel-Hamas conflict. The designation aims to target the Houthis' leadership, degrade their capabilities, and cut off resources, while signaling a tougher stance against Iran, which supports the group. Critics, including British charity Oxfam, warn this designation could worsen Yemen's already devastating humanitarian crisis by disrupting vital imports. The Trump administration asserts it will work with partners to counter the Houthis and enforce strict oversight of entities operating in Yemen.  Reuters Al Jazeera Axios White House  

Crew of commercial ship captured by Houthis freed. Yemen's Houthi rebels on Wednesday released the crew of the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamas-flagged vehicle carrier seized in November 2023 during the group’s Red Sea attacks over the Israel-Hamas war. The release, facilitated by Omani mediation, included 25 crew members from various countries, including the Philippines, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. The Houthis claimed the ship was targeted for its connection to Israeli billionaire Rami Ungar and justified the attacks as being done in solidarity with Palestinians. The move comes as the Houthis signal a reduction in Red Sea attacks following the recent Gaza ceasefire. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has re-designated the movement as a foreign terrorist organization. Houthi attacks have severely disrupted Red Sea shipping, targeting over 100 vessels since October 2023, including some with no connection to Israel, the U.S., or the U.K. The tempo of attacks has slowed recently, likely due to U.S. airstrikes, which have struck Houthi positions over 260 times. The crew's release is viewed as a potential goodwill gesture, but tensions remain high. Associated Press Al Jazeera BBC Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Trump keeping China on its toes with tariff threats. President Donald Trump’s approach to U.S.-China relations during the start of his second presidency has been marked by a mix of conciliatory gestures and tough rhetoric. While deferring immediate tariffs and expressing willingness to negotiate, he has reiterated criticism of China on issues like trade, climate change, and security. Trump hinted this week at potential future tariffs, such as a 10% levy on Chinese imports starting February, over Washington’s concerns about fentanyl and unfair trade practices. China has responded cautiously, welcoming dialogue but remaining wary of Trump's historically volatile stance. Chinese officials have stressed cooperation on shared interests like ending the Ukraine war and tackling narcotics trafficking, while also preparing strategies to mitigate potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump cited China's behavior as justification for withdrawing from multilateral agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and the WHO, accusing Beijing of unfair practices and global pollution. Despite initial overtures, experts on both sides recognize lingering mistrust, with Beijing wary of Trump’s strategic intentions. Observers predict negotiations may offer compromises but anticipate continued tensions as both nations navigate their complex relationship. Wall Street Journal

U.S. moves Typhon missile launchers to new location on Manila’s Luzon Island. A top Philippine government source reported that the U.S. military has relocated its Typhon missile launchers, which are capable of firing both Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6 missiles, from Laoag airfield in the Philippines to another location on Luzon Island. This move, coordinated with the Philippine government, aims to test the system's mobility and survivability during potential conflicts. The Typhon system is part of a broader U.S. strategy to deploy anti-ship weapons in the Indo-Pacific. The Tomahawk missiles can strike targets in China and Russia from the Philippines, while the SM-6 missiles can target air or sea threats up to 200 km away. Satellite images revealed the relocation process, though the exact new location remains undisclosed. The deployment, which began in April of last year, has provoked criticism from Beijing and Moscow, each accusing Washington of fueling an arms race in the region. The Typhon system leverages existing missile designs and stockpiles to quickly bolster U.S. and allied capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. plans to bring in over 800 SM-6 missiles in the next five years, adding to its existing stockpile of thousands of Tomahawks. Despite criticism, Washington and Manila emphasize close coordination on the deployment, which is not yet considered permanent. Reuters

Philippine foreign ministry committed to investigating foreign spying reports. The Philippine foreign ministry on Thursday stressed that it takes espionage allegations involving foreign nationals seriously, particularly following the arrest of Chinese national Deng Yuanqing, who is suspected of spying on critical infrastructure. Law enforcement officials have reported finding equipment believed to be used for surveillance on military facilities. Deng, who is affiliated with China's Army Engineering University of the PLA, was allegedly part of a group monitoring key infrastructure in the Philippines, including military sites. Two Filipino accomplices were also detained, and the Department of Foreign Affairs has pledged to support the investigation. The Chinese embassy in Manila dismissed the accusations, urging Manila to stop promoting claims of Chinese espionage. The incident highlights mounting tensions and suspicion of Chinese activities in the Philippines, particularly regarding its coast guard and fishing militia operating in Manila's exclusive economic zone. Reuters

Philippines ‘blindsided’ by growing security threats, experts call for bolstered intelligence.  Manila’s growing security threats, including espionage, are prompting analysts to call for enhanced counterintelligence and legal measures. Recent incidents, such as the arrest of a Chinese national accused of spying on military installations, the discovery of underwater drones, and the proliferation of fake IDs among foreign nationals, have raised concerns about foreign surveillance and interference. Authorities suspect there is coordinated effort by a foreign power, possibly China, to exploit vulnerabilities in the Philippines’ defense and security infrastructure. The military is investigating links between espionage, offshore gaming operators (Pogos), human trafficking, and cyber activities, while analysts warn that the country’s intelligence capabilities lag behind those of perceived adversaries. In response, the National Security Council has urged Congress to update outdated laws, including the Espionage Act, and pass a bill to counter foreign interference and malign influence. Strengthening legal frameworks and intelligence coordination is seen as crucial to addressing modern security challenges. Experts suggest Manila could learn from countries like Singapore, which have implemented robust policies to combat foreign interference. National Security Adviser Eduardo Año emphasized the need for vigilance, coordination, and proactive measures to fortify the Philippines’ security framework. South China Morning Post 

South Korean investigators request indictment of impeached President Yoon. South Korean investigators have recommended the indictment of detained President Yoon Suk Yeol, accusing him of rebellion, abuse of power, and obstruction of parliament for his controversial declaration of martial law on December 3. Yoon allegedly deployed troops and police to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly, aiming to suppress a vote on ending the emergency decree. Despite the armed presence, lawmakers unanimously overturned the decree and later impeached Yoon, suspending his powers. The Constitutional Court is now deliberating whether to remove him from office permanently. Yoon has refused to cooperate with investigators and has denied ordering military action against lawmakers, despite testimonies from commanders stating otherwise. His defense team has also accused investigators of violating his rights, while Yoon maintains that the investigation and his detention are unlawful. The martial law declaration has deeply impacted South Korean politics, financial markets, and the country’s international image, intensifying internal political divisions. Associated Press Reuters The Japan Times 

Islamic State takes responsibility for murder of Chinese national in Afghanistan. The Islamic State on Wednesday claimed responsibility for the killing of a Chinese national in Afghanistan's northern Takhar province, stating that the attack targeted a vehicle carrying the individual. Afghan police confirmed the incident and have launched an investigation but had not initially identified the perpetrators. China's foreign ministry expressed shock, urging the Afghan government to investigate thoroughly, punish those responsible, and enhance security for Chinese citizens and projects in Afghanistan. China, the first nation to appoint an ambassador to Taliban-led Afghanistan, has sought stronger trade and investment ties. Despite Taliban promises to restore security since taking over in 2021, attacks have persisted, including a 2022 assault on a Kabul hotel frequented by Chinese investors, which was also claimed by the Islamic State. Reuters South China Morning Post VOA 

AFRICA

Over 100,000 people flee eastern Congo’s largest city as M23 rebels’ advance. The M23 insurgent group’s recent offensive in Congo’s restive east has displaced over 178,000 people in just two weeks, as the fighters advance toward Goma, a key city near the Rwandan border. The M23, which previously seized Goma in 2012, has captured the strategic town of Minova, a critical supply route for the region, along with several other towns in the mineral-rich area. The conflict, part of a decades-long struggle involving over 100 armed groups, has displaced more than 7 million people and fueled one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. Thousands of displaced individuals are fleeing bombings, with many seeking refuge in the Nzulo camp outside Goma, which is already overwhelmed. However, the advancing rebels are forcing some to flee the camp, which houses 2 million people, as well. On Wednesday, mothers packed their children and belongings into crowded buses, men rode off with their families on motorbikes, and thousands clambered into wooden boats to flee Goma and Nzulo. Congo, the U.S., and the U.N. accuse Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels, a claim Rwanda adamantly denies. The crisis has intensified fighting in South Kivu and North Kivu provinces, where residents have described desperate attempts to escape as bombs and bullets continue to fall. Associated Press 

South Sudan implements temporary social media ban due to violence in neighboring Sudan.  South Sudanese authorities have ordered a 30-day social media ban, starting midnight Thursday, to curb the spread of graphic content related to violence against South Sudanese nationals in neighboring Sudan. The ban, which may be extended up to 90 days, aims to protect public safety and mental health amid escalating tensions. The decision follows outrage over footage allegedly showing the killings of South Sudanese people by militias in Sudan’s Gezira state. South Sudan imposed a curfew after retaliatory violence resulted in the looting of Sudanese-owned shops. The African Union condemned the killings, calling for restraint. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civil war, which began in April 2023, continues to cause widespread atrocities, famine, and displacement, with ethnic violence and human rights abuses reported across the region. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Musk challenges viability of AI infrastructure project; OpenAI’s Altman offers rebuttal – In the wake of President Donald Trump’s announcement at the White House on Tuesday of a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment by leading tech firms, Elon Musk wrote on X that two of the investment partners lack the capital to meet their commitments.  “They don’t actually have the money,” Musk wrote, adding that “SoftBank has well under $10B secured. I have that on good authority.”  The White House and two of the three companies participating in the AI initiative –Oracle and SoftBank – did not respond to requests for comment about Musk’s remarks. However, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman commented online on Wednesday, challenging Musk’s assessment by stating, “Wrong, as you surely know. [Stargate] is great for the country. I realize what is great for the country isn’t always what’s optimal for your companies, but in your new role, I hope you’ll mostly put America first.” OpenAI will act as a “technology partner” in the project dubbed Stargate and will be involved in creating its infrastructure.  The Stargate partners did not reveal their respective contributions, or the sources of funding.  The Wall Street Journal has reported that Stargate plans to admit additional equity investors to the project.  Wall Street Journal   TechCrunch   CNBC   CNN   Politico

Trump’s $500 billion AI plan is ‘slap’ in the face for Europe. Europe’s AI ambitions now appear dwarfed by the U.S., where President Donald Trump has unveiled a $500 billion AI initiative. The European Union’s €1.5 billion investment, aimed at funding supercomputers for AI research, pales in comparison. Fragmented financial markets, high energy costs, and a lack of Big Tech champions further hinder Europe’s ability to compete. Meanwhile, the U.S. “Stargate Project” plans to deploy $100 billion immediately, partnering with firms like Nvidia, OpenAI, and SoftBank to cement global AI dominance. Experts warn the EU must either scale up or focus on smaller projects, acknowledging its competitive disadvantages in this escalating AI race. Politico EU

Trump brushes off TikTok security concerns, says it bolstered his youth vote. During an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, President Donald Trump downplayed concerns about TikTok being a "spying app" for China, despite initially raising security concerns himself. He compared the app's risks to the broader reliance on Chinese-made technology, suggesting it might be a bigger issue. Trump highlighted TikTok's popularity among young people and credited the app for boosting his appeal to younger voters, claiming it contributed to his success in the election. Although Congress previously banned TikTok unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sold it to U.S. owners, Trump delayed enforcing the ban for 75 days to allow his administration to devise a plan. TikTok briefly suspended its U.S. service, and the Supreme Court upheld the ban. It remains uncertain if Trump’s delay is legally enforceable. Washington Post The Hill 

DHS removes members of advisory groups, including Cyber Safety Review Board– The members of all advisory committees associated with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), including the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB), were removed from their positions by the acting DHS secretary.  In some cases, members resigned in advance of the removal action.  According to the DHS acting secretary, the action was taken in accordance with the administration’s “commitment to eliminating the misuse of resources and ensuring that DHS activities prioritize our national security.”  The CSRB, which was made up of government and private sector experts, was involved in an investigation of China’s Salt Typhoon campaign against U.S. telecommunications firms.  The DHS statement on the advisory committees said members may reapply for their positions, indicating that at least some committees with be restored.   The DHS memo stated that "future committee activities will be focused solely on advancing our critical mission to protect the homeland and support DHS's strategic priorities.” The CSRB included representatives from the FBI and CISA along with private sector leaders such as Google’s Heather Adkins, former NSA cybersecurity chief Rob Joyce, and former CISA director Chris Krebs.  Rep. Bernie Thompson, the ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, said "I'm troubled that the president's attempt to stack the CSRB with loyalists may cause its important work on the Salt Typhoon campaign to be delayed.”  House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green said in a statement, “given the CSRB is tasked with investigating significant cyber intrusions…President Trump’s new DHS leadership should have the opportunity to decide the future of the Board.”  CISA’s Cybersecurity Advisory Committee (CSAC) was also impacted by the DHS memo with the removal of Ciaran Martin, founding chief executive of the Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre; former National Cyber Director Chris Inglis; and Kevin Mandia, founder of cybersecurity giant Mandiant.  The Record   NextGov

Cloudflare blocks largest-ever DDoS attack targeting East Asia ISP – Cloudflare, the web infrastructure and security company, reported that it blocked the largest distributed denial-of-service attack measuring 5.6 terabits per second, the largest ever recorded.  The company said that the attack was directed at an internet service provider (ISP) in eastern Asia.  Cloudflare mitigated the attack without human intervention, noting that it was carried out with a Mirai botnet variant.  More than 13,000 internet-of-things (IoT) devices were involved in the attack, which was defeated by Cloudflare’s automated defense systems without disrupting ISP operations.  In a blog post, Cloudflare noted that its defense “required no human intervention, didn’t trigger any alerts, and didn’t cause any performance degradation.  The systems worked as intended.”   Cloudflare reported a 53 percent increase in DDoS threats in 2024 over 2023, with the company’s systems blocking approximately 21.3 million DDoS attacks over 12 months.  Cloudflare recorded a 1,885 percent increase in attacks measuring over 1 Tbps between the third and fourth quarters of last year, underscoring the trend toward increasing “hyper-volumetric” DDoS attacks.  Cloudflare’s blog post noted that “too many organizations only implement DDoS protection after suffering an attack.  Our observations show that organizations with proactive security strategies are more resilient.”  CyberScoop   Cybernews   BleepingComputer

Chinese representative to World Economic Forum calls for guardrails on AI development – Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, warned that AI development could pose significant risks if not carefully managed.  Noting the technology’s “immense promise,” Ding said that in the absence of careful guardrails “it could become a Pandora’s box – unleashing unforeseen consequences.”  Ding went on to say that the “chaotic competition” taking place around the globe could bring about what he called “the ‘grey rhino’ – a clear and looming risk.”  Speaking of China’s overall economic development and environment, Ding said “China’s door to openness will never close; it will only open wider.”   Ding welcomed continued international collaboration in science and technology, noting that “China has long adhered to the idea that science knows no borders and should benefit all of humanity … to bridge the technological gap and prevent innovation from becoming a game for the rich and wealthy.”  In support of this stance, Ding said China would introduce more proactive policies to boost consumption, investment and innovation.  Ding said the world should avoid dividing into camps and called on nations to “resolutely oppose Cold War mentality and zero-sum games and work together to create a more just and reasonable international order.”  South China Morning Post

Cyber panel at Davos economic forum explores cyber risks, leadership roles – A cyber panel organized for the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland characterized the global landscape as “increasingly complex” with AI and ever-more-sophisticated infrastructure contributing to worldwide inequality. One of the panel participants, Malaysian digital minister Gobind Sing Deo, said that his country would strive to “put our house in order” and “secure cybersecurity regionally and then globally” while noting that cyber threats do not respect national boundaries.  These circumstances, the Malaysian official said, call for a “back to basics” approach by governments and tech firms in responding to data breaches.  Spanish digital transformation minister Oscar Lopez pointed to effective collaboration of the country’s defense, police, and cybersecurity sectors in responding to over 220 reported cyberattacks daily.  He added that Spain’s national cybersecurity center is testing Wi-Fi connected toys, which carry the risk of compromise that would allow attackers into individual homes to gather sensitive information.  Lopez also said that worldwide the technological future rests with the U.S., China, the E.U., and India.  He then posed an open-ended alternative:  “Imagine if Palo Alto was not in California but in Afghanistan. What would the Taliban do?”  A private sector representative, Dragos CEO Robert Lee, pointed to vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, citing the example of water purification systems that are open to attack because employees and leaders “truly don’t understand their companies and only care about profit share.”  Cybernews

Chinese military drone can be launched into air from submarine and return — Chinese defense researchers have already achieved and surpassed a Pentagon concept for deploying drones from submarines to reduce the chance of exposing surface ships to enemy weapons.  A team from Chinese aerodynamics and technical research facilities have developed a drone capable of submarine launch, operational flight, and return to the launch vessel.  According to a peer-reviewed article in Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, the research team led by associate professor Dong Changyin designed a drone with a unique foldable wing design that can “move across water-air media multiple times in a single journey.”  The team’s journal article noted that the drone “combines the advantages of efficient underwater navigation and high agility in the air.”  The paper went on to point to the drone’s potential “in military fields such as marine reconnaissance, surveillance, strike and attack.”  The drone, dubbed Feiyi, boasts underwater navigation abilities that exceed those of most existing cross-media drones.  The drone’s four pairs of rotating blades used for flight can flip and fold like human arms close to the fuselage, thereby greatly reducing water resistance.  Feiyi’s tail-mounted, underwater-specific propellers provide propulsion and steering and, on reaching the surface, the drone redeploys its four pairs of blades to enable flight.  After landing back on the water, the drone’s wings fold, allowing it to submerge in just five seconds.  South China Morning Post

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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