Report for Thursday, January 2, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, January 2, 2025

Zelensky vows to do everything in 2025 to stop Russia, expresses confidence in Trump

US Army Afghan war vet drives truck flying ISIS flag into New Orleans crowd, kills 15

Chinese government hacked Treasury sanctions office

Xi says no one can stop China's 'reunification' with Taiwan

Chinese aircraft carrier achieves ‘all-weather’ operational capability

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Former MI6 Chief on Trump, the War in Ukraine and Dealing with China. Sir Alex Younger, former chief of Britain’s MI6, tells The Cipher Brief’s Suzanne Kelly that Donald Trump isn’t all wrong. “Trump did us all a massive favor,” Younger said. “He really gave Europeans a kicking on their free riding and unwillingness to spend on their own defense. That was a good move. And he called out China. That was a good move. I’m actually broadly with him [on] Iran.”  But, Younger added, when Trump started trashing NATO, “I think Trump is dead wrong. What do dictators and autocrats really fear about us?” he explained. “The answer is our alliances. What’s the thing that we can do that they can’t do? Alliances. What’s the thing Xi Jinping complains about the whole time? Being ganged up on. And ultimately, for all of the power that the United States possesses, it’s its capacity for teamwork and partnership that has made it so dominant.”  Europe’s task is to persuade Trump that “alliances are worth it. And if we fail, it’s a huge win for dictators.”  The Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli strikes kill 12 in Gaza. Israeli strikes killed at least 12 people, mostly women and children, in Gaza, officials said Wednesday.  A strike on a house in the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza, where Israel has waged a major operation since early October, killed seven people, including a woman and four children. Israel’s military said it “eliminated” Hamas fighters. Another strike overnight in the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza killed a woman and a child, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.  Associated Press 

Former defense chief Gallant quits Israeli parliament.   Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced Wednesday that he intended to resign from parliament.  That’s good news for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because he will probably find it easier to achieve majorities for some crucial votes.  Netanyahu fired Gallant as defense minister on Nov. 5, after they clashed over many issues, most importantly, a ceasefire deal with Hamas.  Gallant kept his seat in parliament, but on New Year’s Day said he intended to leave politics, at least for a while.  In his speech Wednesday, Gallant said Netanyahu fired him because Gallant was trying to draft Orthodox Jewish men into the military, an unpopular idea among conservatives.   Bloomberg Reuters France 24  

Gaza population down 6% since start of war.   The population of Gaza has fallen 6%, to 2.1 million, since Hamas launched the war with Israel 15 months ago, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS).  About 100,000 Palestinians have escaped Gaza and more than 55,000 are presumed dead. Of those who remain, more than 1 million are children, the PCBS said. Israel's foreign ministry called the PCBS data "fabricated, inflated, and manipulated in order to vilify Israel". Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

How Suicide Drones Transformed the Front Lines in Ukraine. Ukraine's use of suicide drones has transformed the battlefield, blending ingenuity with necessity. Outnumbered and under-resourced, Ukraine repurposed consumer drones into weaponized tools. FPV (first person-view) drones, enhanced with cameras and explosives, have proven highly effective, allowing precise strikes on Russian tanks, artillery, and soldiers while minimizing risk to operators. The Achilles Strike UAV Battalion exemplifies this shift, launching up to 40 FPV drones daily. These drones, costing as little as $400, often outperform conventional artillery by penetrating fortified targets. Despite Russian countermeasures like jammers and anti-drone netting, Ukraine’s drone teams continuously adapt. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ambitious plan to deploy a million drones underscored their critical role in Ukraine's defense. Drones now account for 90% of destroyed Russian equipment in key battles, such as Bakhmut. This innovation highlights a grim reality: warfare increasingly relies on cost-effective, remote-controlled technologies, reshaping the human experience of conflict. New York Times

On E-Scooters and ATVs, Russian Forces Swarm Ukrainian Positions in the East. Russia’s stepped-up assaults on eastern Ukraine involve swarms of troops using scooters, ATVs, and armored vehicles to overwhelm Ukrainian positions. The Azov Brigade's video footage showed failed Russian attacks near Toretsk despite heavy losses exceeding 1,500 casualties daily. Moscow’s forces increasingly leverage smaller vehicles to disperse, complicating Ukraine's defenses. Russian gains, totaling 1,300 square miles in 2024, are the largest since the invasion's early days but remain limited to under 1% of Ukraine’s territory. Fierce battles in Donbas continue, with Ukrainian defenses under strain in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk, where critical supply routes face encroachment. Ukrainian soldiers voiced concerns about fragmented reinforcements undermining unit cohesion, while President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an ombudsman to address troop issues. Analysts argue Ukraine must stabilize defenses and raise Moscow's war costs to force negotiations, but frontline soldiers warn that the conflict shows no sign of abating. New York Times

Ukraine Advances Killer Robot Drones with More Automation, Efficiency. Ukraine is advancing drone automation to enhance efficiency and counter Russian forces. In 2024, drones became Ukraine’s primary weapon against Russian assaults, with over one million explosive drones produced. Companies are developing technologies to simplify drone operations, reduce pilot skill requirements, and improve strike success rates. Current drones rely on pilots wearing goggles for manual control, but automation is progressing incrementally. Innovations include command-and-control modules that bypass jammers, GPS-independent positioning systems, and autopilot features enabling drones to navigate to battlefields independently. These systems allow operators to focus on targeting, potentially controlling multiple drones simultaneously. The approach prioritizes cost-effective, scalable solutions, contrasting with expensive, long-term Western military innovations. Ukraine's automated drones aim to increase Russian losses while conserving Ukrainian resources. These advancements, coordinated through platforms like Brave1, promise to revolutionize tactics by enabling simultaneous attacks from multiple angles, likened to playing a computer game with unlimited resources. Wall Street Journal

Zelensky vows Ukraine will do everything in 2025 to stop Russia, expresses confidence in Trump. In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to make 2025 a decisive year for ending Russia’s invasion, emphasizing Ukraine’s resolve to fight for peace and sovereignty. Acknowledging the challenging losses of 2024, including ceded territory and continued Russian aggression, Zelensky stated, "May 2025 be our year," urging unity and strength on the battlefield and in diplomacy. Zelensky expressed confidence in maintaining U.S. support despite political changes, including Donald Trump’s presidency. He noted conversations with outgoing President Joe Biden and President-elect Trump, saying, “I have no doubt that the new American president is willing and able to bring peace and end Putin’s aggression.” Zelensky highlighted that achieving peace requires confronting Russia’s full-scale aggression.  Zelensky celebrated Ukraine’s resilience and allies’ contributions, including military aid and advancements in domestic defense production. He reaffirmed Ukraine’s European trajectory and called for global unity to ensure freedom and justice prevail. France 24 Reuters Full text

Ukrainians paid $24 billion in taxes in 2024, Finance Ministry reports. Ukrainians paid over $24 billion in taxes in 2024, contributing to total state revenue of $74 billion, the Finance Ministry reported on Tuesday. Key components included corporate income tax at $6.5 billion, value-added tax at $6.4 billion, and personal income and military taxes at $5.6 billion. Excise taxes and rent contributed $3.2 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. Recent tax reforms, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky in November, aim to address Ukraine’s $35 billion budget deficit projected for 2025. These measures increased military taxes from 1.5% to 5%, extended war taxes to small businesses, and raised bank profit taxes to 50%. Taxes on other financial institutions will rise from 18% to 25% in 2025. The State Customs Service contributed $14.3 billion, while international grants added $10.8 billion. Foreign partners are expected to cover $20 billion of the 2025 deficit, with domestic tax reforms targeting the remaining $15 billion. Kyiv Independent

Russia and Ukraine end five decades of gas transit to Europe. Ukraine has halted Russian gas transit to Europe after the expiration of a key agreement, ending a decades-long arrangement. The move marks a symbolic shift as Ukraine refuses to support Russian energy profits amid the ongoing war. The European Union, which has reduced reliance on Russian gas from 40% in 2021 to 8% in 2023, has prepared for the cutoff with alternative routes and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Russia’s Gazprom, which suffered a $6.9 billion loss last year due to diminished European sales, will lose an estimated $5 billion annually, while Ukraine foregoes $800 million in transit fees. Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary have arranged alternative supplies, while Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria faces energy shortages, cutting heating and hot water. This marks the end of Russia’s dominance over EU energy markets. CNN Reuters Al Jazeera Washington Post New York Times Associated Press

Zelensky calls stopping Russian gas transit 'one of Moscow's biggest defeats.' Ukraine’s termination of Russian gas transit on Wednesday marks "one of Moscow's biggest defeats," President Volodymyr Zelensky declared, emphasizing the shift's impact on Russia's energy leverage. "When Putin came to power over 25 years ago, gas transit through Ukraine exceeded 130 billion cubic meters annually. Today, it is zero," Zelensky stated, attributing this to Russia's "cynical energy blackmail." Zelensky praised Europe for adapting and called for support for Moldova in its energy transition, noting, "The more gas from Europe's true partners, the faster Europe's energy dependence on Russia ends." He criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak leader Robert Fico for their "mafia-like" ties to Moscow, dismissing Fico's warnings of rising energy costs. Slovakia, reliant on Russian gas, faces €220 million in added fees for alternatives, but Zelensky argued that transparent policies outweigh short-term challenges. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4 over the past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed four civilians and injured six, authorities said on Thursday. In Kherson Oblast, two civilians died and six were injured in strikes targeting infrastructure and residences. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a civilian was killed in Stepnohirsk, while another died in Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast. Overnight, Russia launched 72 drones, including Iranian-designed Shaheds; Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 47 and diverted 24 without casualties. Damage was reported in Kharkiv Oblast, but no injuries occurred. Drone activity persisted as of the Air Force’s latest report. Kyiv Independent

Russian drone attack kills 2, injures 6, damages central bank building in Kyiv. Russia launched a New Year’s Day drone attack on Kyiv, killing two people and injuring six, including two pregnant women. A residential building in central Kyiv was partially destroyed, while debris damaged the National Bank of Ukraine's Pechersk District building. Despite this, the central bank's operations remain unaffected. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted 63 of 111 drones, with 46 more disrupted electronically. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Russia's continued assaults over the holidays, including a large-scale attack on Christmas Day. Separately, Russian shelling killed a 23-year-old volunteer in Kherson. Moscow’s strikes persist, targeting cities far from the frontline. Reuters. RFE/RL Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says 30% of military equipment used by Ukraine in 2024 was domestically made. In his New Year’s Eve address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 30% of Ukraine's military equipment in 2024 was domestically produced, highlighting the nation’s growing defense industry. Innovations include naval drones, glide bombs, and its first homemade ballistic missile. Western defense firms like Rheinmetall, BAE, and AeroVironment have also established operations in Ukraine. Despite these advancements, Zelensky said Western support remains insufficient against Russia’s vast military. Ukraine faces shortages, including U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, as aid delivery struggles to meet battlefield needs. Business Insider

Human rights plummet in Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported a worsening human rights situation as Russia's war on Ukraine continues, citing rising civilian casualties and abuses in Russian-occupied areas. Between September and November 2024, 574 civilians were killed and over 3,000 injured, with intensified Russian military operations and attacks on energy infrastructure exacerbating conditions. The report highlights systematic torture, including sexual violence, against Ukrainian POWs, with executions also increasing. Russian efforts to impose its identity in occupied territories, including militarizing children, are criticized, alongside restrictions on religious freedom. Voice of America

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Dec. 31. Russian forces gained 4,168 square kilometers in 2024, primarily small settlements and fields, at a cost of over 420,000 casualties. Despite prioritizing Donetsk and northern Kharkiv, Russia failed to meet its 2024 territorial goals. Russian forces captured only four mid-sized settlements, the largest with a pre-war population of 31,000. Russia would need over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at current rates. Ukrainian forces struggle to halt Russian advances, with Western aid critical to stabilizing the frontlines in 2025. Vladimir Putin declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland," emphasizing militarization and veteran appeasement. Russia eliminated enlistment bonuses for prisoners fighting in Ukraine starting January 2025 to manage war costs.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Hold Ukraine accountable for corruption, misspent aid. James Durso criticizes Ukraine's management of Western aid, alleging corruption and misallocation. He highlights scandals involving overpriced and faulty military equipment and claims that some weapons intended for Ukraine's defense were diverted to other regions, including Nigeria. Durso also criticizes President Volodymyr Zelensky for sidelining military leaders like General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who had advocated for technological innovation and asymmetric warfare instead of conventional strategies. He argues Zelensky avoided diplomacy to maintain his political position, prolonging a costly war. Durso calls for greater accountability for how U.S. taxpayer-funded aid—part of $260 billion provided by Western allies—is used. The Hill

Opinion: Strengthen Ukraine so there can be real peace. Yehor Firsov argues that genuine peace requires the strengthening of Ukraine militarily, not relying on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s diplomatic ambitions. He emphasizes that modern warfare is resource-driven, with drones playing a critical role. Firsov highlights that the West must continue providing military support, especially drones, to prevent Russia’s advances. He warns that a unilateral ceasefire would embolden Moscow, while a technological edge for Ukraine would stabilize the front and incentivize negotiations. He concludes peace depends on ensuring Russia cannot physically or strategically advance, making Ukraine’s defense capabilities essential for long-term stability. Politico EU

AMERICAS

US Army Afghan war vet drives truck flying ISIS flag into New Orleans New Year’s Eve crowd, kills 15.  Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, of Texas, drove a pickup truck at a high speed into a Bourbon Street crowd at around 3:15 a.m. New Year’s Day, killing 15 people and injuring dozens more.  He crashed and fired at pursuing police officers, injuring two of them before being fatally shot himself. In a message from Camp David Wednesday night, President Biden said, “The FBI…reported to me that mere hours before the attack, he posted videos on social media indicating that [he] was inspired by ISIS. The ISIS flag was found in his vehicle, which he rented to conduct this attack. Possible explosives were found in the vehicle as well and more explosives were found nearby.” In videos posted to social media shortly before the attack in New Orleans, he showed a “desire to kill,” Biden said. CNN reported that Jabbar recorded some videos while driving from his home in Texas to Louisiana in which he said he considered killing his family, then changed course to mass murder.   The FBI is investigating the attack as an act of terrorism. Agents are trying to determine whether Jabbar is linked to Wednesday morning’s explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck filled with large firework mortars and gas canisters exploded near the entrance of Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas.  That incident is also being treated as possible terrorism. According to the military news site Task and Purpose, the Pentagon said that Jabbar was a human resource specialist and information technology specialist in the U.S. Army from March 2007 to January 2015, then an IT specialist in the reserves from January 2015 to July 2020. He deployed to Afghanistan from February 2009 to January 2010. He rose to staff sergeant by the end of his Army career.  His success at defeating New Orleans’ security precautions and suspicions that he did not act alone led officials to postpone the city’s Sugar Bowl until Thursday.  “There’s just too much stuff we don’t know,” Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-Louisiana) said during the news conference. “It’s just not worth it.”  Washington Post  CBS News  New York Times  Reuters Wall Street Journal  Task and Purpose CNN

Explosive-packed Tesla Cybertruck explodes in front of Las Vegas Trump hotel.  A Tesla Cybertruck filled with large firework mortars and gas canisters exploded near the entrance of Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas at 8:40 a.m. Wednesday morning.  The driver was killed, and seven bystanders were injured. The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is trying to determine whether it was an act of terrorism and whether there’s any link to a truck attack on pedestrians in New Orleans earlier Wednesday morning. The New Orleans attack is being investigated as an act of terrorism, the FBI said, and authorities in Las Vegas are looking into whether there is any link between the two incidents. “It’s a Tesla truck, and we know that Elon Musk is working with President-elect Trump, and it’s the Trump Tower so there are obviously things to be concerned about there, and it’s stuff we continue to look at,” Las Vegas Sheriff Kevin McMahill said.  He said the fact that the construction of the Cybertruck “really limited the damage that occurred” at the hotel because the blast went through the truck and upward. The glass doors to the tower were spared, he said.   In a post on X, Musk, founder of Tesla, said, “The evil knuckleheads picked the wrong vehicle for a terrorist attack.” New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Chinese government hacked Treasury sanctions office.  Chinese government hackers broke into   The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which administers economic sanctions against countries, individuals and entities. The hack suggests that Beijing is keenly interested in intelligence on which Chinese entities that the U.S. government may be considering blacklisting. The hack penetrated the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research, according to the Washington Post, quoting Treasury’s letter to Congress.  The documents accessed were unclassified and there is no evidence the hacker still has access to Treasury systems, the department said.  Washington Post

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025. As the world navigates a challenging geopolitical landscape, the International Crisis Group highlights 10 conflicts to watch in 2025. Syria: The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marked a turning point, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham unexpectedly taking control of major cities. Challenges include rebuilding governance, maintaining order, and navigating tensions with Israel and Turkish-backed forces. Sudan: A war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces has displaced 12 million people. Regional actors must push for power-sharing to prevent the country’s violent partition. Ukraine and European Security: With Russia’s offensive grinding on, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to negotiate face challenges. A durable cease-fire remains elusive. Israel-Palestine: Israel’s war in Gaza has devastated infrastructure and civilian lives. Efforts to broker a cease-fire falter, while Israeli expansion into the West Bank escalates tensions. Iran vs. U.S. and Israel: Iran’s regional influence waned after Hezbollah’s losses and Assad’s fall. Talks on Iran’s nuclear program and regional security remain crucial to avoiding further escalation. Haiti: Gangs dominate much of Haiti, undermining a transitional government and foreign intervention. U.S.-Mexico: Drug violence and U.S. calls for military action against cartels strain bilateral ties. Mexico’s new president faces challenges balancing domestic security and relations with Trump’s administration. Myanmar: Rebels control large swaths of territory, while Chinese support props up the military junta. Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s pact with Russia heightens tensions, while political upheaval in South Korea adds uncertainty. U.S.-China: Taiwan and the South China Sea remain flashpoints. Trump’s mixed signals on trade and military posture could inflame Asian tensions. Foreign Policy

U.S. blacklists Russian and Iranian groups over attempted election interference.  The U.S. imposed sanctions Tuesday on two groups linked to Iranian and Russian efforts to feed disinformation to American voters and interfere with the 2024 election. U.S. intelligence has accused both governments of spreading disinformation, including fake videos, news stories and social media posts, designed to manipulate voters and undermine trust in U.S. elections.  Treasury officials said the Moscow-based Center for Geopolitical Expertise, distributed deepfake videos created using artificial intelligence. They said its director worked closely with Russian GRU, military intelligence, agents also overseeing cyberattacks and sabotage against the West. Also sanctions – Tehran’s Cognitive Design Production Center, which Treasury said was a subsidiary organization of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps  Associated Press Reuters   U.S. Treasury

Panama commemorates 25th anniversary of the Panama Canal handover, as Trump talks about taking it back. Panama marked the 25th anniversary of the U.S. handover of the Panama Canal on Tuesday, honoring the milestone amid recent threats by President-elect Donald Trump to reclaim control of the waterway. The commemoration was also shaped by the passing of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who negotiated the 1999 handover treaty with Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos. President José Raúl Mulino praised their vision and affirmed Panama’s permanent sovereignty over the canal, dismissing concerns about foreign influence. Trump has criticized the 1977 treaty, calling it a mistake and threatening to demand the canal’s return if Panama doesn’t reverse recent fee hikes caused by drought-related disruptions. Experts, however, note that the treaty grants the U.S. the right to ensure the canal’s neutrality, but not to reclaim control. The canal has seen significant growth since the handover, including a $5.2 billion expansion completed in 2016. Recent droughts have forced Panama to cut traffic and raise fees, with further increases possible to address modernization needs. Associated Press Al Jazeera South China Morning Post 

Puerto Rico’s power restored after massive New Year’s Eve blackout. Power was restored to 98% of Puerto Rico's 1.47 million utility customers by Wednesday after a New Year’s Eve blackout left the island in darkness. Luma Energy, the private firm responsible for the grid’s transmission and distribution, attributed the outage to a failure in an underground electric line. While most essential services like hospitals and water plants are back online, the fragile grid could lead to temporary outages in the coming days. Residents have been urged to limit energy use to stabilize the grid, and plans have been announced to appoint an “energy czar” to address the island’s longstanding electricity issues. Puerto Rico’s power grid, damaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017, remains unreliable, with frequent outages disrupting daily life. CBS Washington Post Associated Press 

El Salvador ends the year with record low number of homicides amid a controversial and prolonged state of emergency. El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele on Wednesday said his country ended 2024 with a record low of 114 homicides, achieving a homicide rate of 1.9 per 100,000 people. This, Bukele asserted on social media, makes it the safest nation in the Western Hemisphere, and marks a dramatic shift. In 2015, El Salvador had 6,656 homicides, and in 2023 there were 214. These security gains come under the second year of an extended state of emergency that has granted the government extraordinary powers, including the suspension of constitutional rights and the ability to conduct mass arrests without due process. Since the crackdown began in 2022 following a shocking rise in gang violence, over 83,000 people have been arrested, with 8,000 later released as innocent. However, 354 deaths in custody have been reported by civil rights groups. The crackdown has drastically reduced gang violence and extortion, allowing residents to move freely and safely in previously dangerous neighborhoods. Despite concerns over civil rights and the ongoing state of emergency, Bukele remains highly popular and won an unprecedented second five-year term in 2024, enabled by a favorable Supreme Court ruling. The congress, dominated by Bukele's allies, continues to renew the emergency powers monthly. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Putin Declares ‘Everything Will Be Fine’ Despite Russia’s Growing Challenges. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s New Year’s Eve address marked 25 years of his rule but avoided key challenges facing Russia. Putin offered vague optimism, declaring 2025 as “the year of the Defender of the Motherland,” but did not acknowledge Ukraine’s war, inflation, or economic issues. Analysts estimate 150,000–200,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion began in 2022, while recruitment efforts falter. Internationally, Putin faces setbacks, including strained ties with Azerbaijan following a deadly jet crash and losing influence in Syria after Bashir al-Assad's downfall. Russia’s economy, propped by military spending and oil exports, shows signs of stagnation, with inflation at 10% and slowing growth projected for 2025. Critics highlight the Kremlin’s inability to sustain war efforts alongside domestic stability. Despite this, Putin emphasized unity, asserting, “Everything will come true.” New York Times

Kremlin Insiders Reveal How Trump Is Already Secretly Helping Putin. Kremlin propagandists are celebrating President-elect Donald Trump’s controversial statements about annexing Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal, interpreting them as validation for Russia’s territorial ambitions. On Russian state TV, Trump was likened to Vladimir Putin, with hosts suggesting Trump’s actions normalize military aggression. Dmitry Kiselyov predicted Trump’s territorial expansions could inspire other nations, while Vladimir Solovyov praised Trump’s rhetoric as beneficial to Russia, suggesting it legitimizes their claims over Ukrainian regions and beyond. Analysts see Trump as a disruptor who undermines Western unity, aligning with Russia’s goals. Critics argue his actions signal a shift toward an era of empires. The Daily Beast

How Putin Tapped a Well of Ethnic Hatred in Russia. Russia's nationalist movement has surged under Vladimir Putin, targeting immigrants, particularly from Central Asia. Far-right groups like Russkaya Obshchina, with Kremlin support, patrol cities to detain migrants, sometimes alongside law enforcement. Deportations have doubled, surpassing 60,000 this year. New legislation enables expulsions without court oversight, while harsh penalties for "illegal migration" have escalated. Ethnic hatred, fueled by state propaganda, has culminated in rallies supported by figures like oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev and the Orthodox Church. Anti-immigrant sentiment intensified after a March terrorist attack linked to Central Asian groups killed 145 people. Advocacy groups report rising violence against non-Slavic migrants, with incidents rarely leading to justice due to nationalist influence. Tajikistan has warned its citizens against traveling to Russia, and even Chechnya's leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, criticized the crackdown. Critics argue Putin’s regime redirects public dissatisfaction toward vulnerable groups, intertwining nationalism with state repression and fueling dangerous societal divisions. The Atlantic 

Germany, France and Poland condemn violence in Georgia. Germany, France, and Poland condemned recent violence in Georgia following protests against the ruling Georgian Dream party, which critics accuse of authoritarianism and aligning with Russia. The European Union ministers denounced police brutality, suppression of peaceful demonstrators, and attacks on media. Thousands have protested nightly since November, opposing the suspension of EU accession talks. Riot police used tear gas and water cannons, detaining hundreds. The EU nations announced visa restrictions for Georgian officials and warned of further measures. The Georgian Dream party, linked to billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, denies allegations but faces growing international criticism for democratic backsliding and repression. Associated Press 

Bulgaria and Romania celebrate full membership in Europe’s Schengen travel zone. Romania and Bulgaria officially joined the European Union's Schengen area, removing land border checks and enabling seamless travel within the 27-member bloc. Celebrations marked this milestone with symbolic ceremonies at major crossings, including the Danube’s Friendship Bridge. Their integration follows partial admission in March, when air and sea border checks were lifted. The move, delayed for years due to opposition over migration concerns, is expected to reduce transit bottlenecks, boost trade, and attract foreign investment. Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev called it a "historic moment," highlighting the expanded Schengen zone as a key achievement of European unity and economic integration. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post Euronews 

Serbian president says he ‘won’t flee like Assad’ as protests grow. Tens of thousands protested in Belgrade and other Serbian cities on New Year’s Eve against President Aleksandar Vucic’s government, marking a decade of his rule with demands for accountability over corruption and recent tragedies. Demonstrators, led by students, draped city hall in black, mourning 15 deaths in a Novi Sad railway station collapse blamed on corruption. Vucic, facing escalating unrest, vowed not to flee like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Protesters reported violence, intimidation, and spyware surveillance by authorities. Amnesty International condemned Serbia’s “digital prison.” Calls for justice target officials linked to unsafe projects and violent crackdowns on peaceful demonstrations. The Times

German government condemns New Year’s Eve violence after hundreds of arrests. The German government condemned New Year’s Eve violence after attacks with fireworks injured 30 police officers and one firefighter in Berlin, prompting 400 arrests. Illegal fireworks caused severe damage to buildings, leaving 36 apartments uninhabitable. Nationwide, five people died, and hundreds were injured in fireworks-related incidents. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser supported the deployment of additional police and vowed harsh prosecution of perpetrators. Authorities emphasized the need for strict measures to prevent further chaos. Associated Press  

THE MIDDLE EAST

A look at the Islamic State, and how it has inspired attacks by offshoots and lone wolves alike. The actions of Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a Texas man who drove a truck into partygoers in New Orleans' French Quarter on New Year’s Eve and killed 15 people, has once again shed light on the widespread and persistent influence of the Islamic State (ISIS). The FBI recovered an Islamic State flag from Jabbar’s truck, and President Joe Biden stated that the man had posted videos before the attack expressing support for ISIS. The Islamic State, left weakened and dispersed after the loss of its territory in Iraq and Syria by 2019, continues to inspire attacks globally through its ideology. Its influence persists as a decentralized network with affiliates in Africa, Asia, and Europe. In the U.S., this attack marks the deadliest ISIS-inspired event in years, following previous incidents like the 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting. Experts warn of a renewed threat of international terrorism, with FBI officials noting an elevated risk since October 2023, when Israel launched a devastating offensive in Gaza in response to a Hamas’ attack. Supporters of ISIS celebrated the tragic New Orleans attack in online forums on Wednesday, demonstrating the continued power of the group. Associated Press 

Syrians protest, demand justice for disappeared activists. Syrian protestors in Douma held a sit-in on Wednesday demanding justice for four activists who disappeared in Douma in 2013. One of the victims was prominent human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh, who was known for being secular and honest, and received an International Woman of Courage award in 2013. The disappearance remains one of the most devastating mysteries of Syria’s 13-year civil war. Activists blame the Army of Islam, a powerful rebel faction in Douma at the time, for abducting the activists due to Zaitouneh’s work documenting abuses and promoting local governance, though the group has denied involvement. The protest comes amidst Syria’s political shifts following the ouster of President Bashar Assad and increasing demands for accountability for thousands of forcibly disappeared individuals. The new rebel leadership under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has shown limited alignment with activists seeking justice but has avoided taking a definitive stance on past accusations. The protesters called for uncovering the fate of the missing activists and broader justice for victims of forced disappearances across the nation, regardless of the perpetrators. Activists stressed that achieving truth and justice is essential for Syria’s healing and future stability. Associated Press 

6 Iranians executed in Saudi Arabia for drug smuggling. Riyadh on Wednesday announced the execution of six Iranian men for drug smuggling, sparking objections from Iran amidst efforts to restore diplomatic ties. The Saudi Interior Ministry stated the men were caught smuggling hashish and executed after their appeals were rejected, citing Islamic law and a commitment to combating drug crimes. In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Saudi ambassador, calling the executions unacceptable and contradictory to ongoing judicial cooperation. Iran plans to send a delegation to Riyadh to address the issue. The incident comes as the two nations work to rebuild relations after reestablishing diplomatic ties in early 2023 following nearly a decade of tensions. Associated Press Reuters Barron's 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Xi says no one can stop China's 'reunification' with Taiwan. In a New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed that “no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification” with Taiwan, emphasizing that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are “one family.” Xi’s remarks follow intensified military pressure on Taiwan throughout 2024, including daily incursions near its air and sea spaces and large-scale naval deployments after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s U.S. stopovers. Beijing continues to reject Taiwan’s sovereignty and vows further actions against perceived separatism. Xi’s rhetoric underscores China’s resolve amid strained U.S.-China ties over arms sales to Taiwan and regional tensions. Reuters Radio Free Asia 

Taiwan’s leaders promises to increase defense budget as China tensions flare. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te gave a New Year’s address on Wednesday, emphasizing intentions to strengthen Taiwan's defenses against growing threats from China and labeling the island a vital part of the global "line of defense of democracy." Lai criticized authoritarian regimes like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran for destabilizing global peace and the Indo-Pacific region. He urged increased defense spending and national preparedness to protect Taiwan's democracy and security. Beijing has escalated pressure on the sovereign territory through military maneuvers and diplomatic isolation. In response, Taipei has been reforming its military and acquiring American weapons. Lai also addressed domestic political challenges, warning against threats to democracy following controversial bills passed by the opposition Kuomintang party, which critics claim could undermine democratic institutions. Associated Press South China Morning Post 

Taiwan detects first Chinese 'combat patrol' of 2025. The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense reported on Thursday that Chinese warplanes and warships conducted their first "combat patrol" of the year around the self-governing islands, with 22 military aircraft and multiple warships operating near the territory. Taiwan monitored the military activities closely. This development comes after President William Lai reiterated his willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing, a stance repeatedly rejected by China. China’s Eastern Theatre Command released a New Year’s video showcasing military maneuvers and a jet near a U.S. P-8 Poseidon aircraft, which Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung called an example of psychological warfare aimed at intimidation. Lin stated that these actions are politically motivated, and underscored Taiwan’s commitment to Lai’s Four Pillars of Peace and Four Commitments to manage cross-strait and international relations. Reuters Taipei Times 

South Korea’s impeached leader releases bellicose message vowing to fight as authorities weigh his arrest. Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has vowed to "fight to the end" against what he calls "anti-state forces," as law enforcement prepares to detain him over his brief martial law decree last month. The anti-corruption agency has been granted a week to execute a detainment warrant after Yoon refused to cooperate with investigations into whether his actions amounted to rebellion. Yoon, whose presidential powers were suspended following a December 14 impeachment vote, rallied conservative supporters outside his residence, accusing his opponents of endangering the nation. His supporters continue to protest, while his lawyers argue that the warrant is invalid and accuse authorities of overstepping legal boundaries. The Constitutional Court will decide whether to uphold Yoon's impeachment and formally remove him from office or reinstate him. Associated Press Reuters

South Korean investigators likely to execute arrest warrant for Yoon as early as Thursday. South Korea’s anti-corruption agency is preparing to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol after a Seoul court issued a warrant over his botched imposition of martial law on December 3 and could do so as early as Thursday. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) is coordinating with police to execute the warrant, which is set to expire on Monday. The presidential security service has pledged to follow due process but may obstruct the detention on security grounds. The warrant also allows a search of Yoon's residence, despite legal restrictions on locations tied to military secrets. CIO Chief Oh Dong-woon warned the security service against obstructing the investigation. If arrested, Yoon will be questioned at the CIO headquarters before being detained at the Seoul Detention Center. The CIO will have 48 hours to either seek further detention through a formal arrest warrant or release him. Yonhap News Agency  

South Korean police raid Muan airport after tragic jet crash. South Korean police conducted raids on Muan International Airport, Jeju Air's Seoul office, and other locations on Thursday as part of an investigation into the deadly crash of a Jeju Air passenger jet that killed 179 of the 181 people on board. The crash occurred during a belly landing at Muan International Airport on Sunday. Authorities are investigating the incident on charges of professional negligence resulting in death. Yonhap News Agency South China Morning Post Reuters 

In India’s shadow war with Pakistan, a campaign of covert killings. Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated into a covert assassination campaign allegedly led by India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). Since 2021, at least six targeted killings have occurred in Pakistan, with Indian intelligence reportedly employing local criminals and Afghan operatives. Pakistani officials claim these killings target individuals linked to militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, accused of attacking Indian troops. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized a more aggressive stance against Pakistan, publicly hinting at such operations. Similar assassination attempts on Sikh separatists in Canada and the U.S. have drawn international scrutiny. RAW’s methods, often involving intermediaries and unregulated payment networks, have revealed lapses in operational security, paralleling cases in North America. Pakistan has publicly condemned these actions. Analysts suggest these covert actions bolster Modi’s domestic image while intensifying the dangerous proxy conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Washington Post

Tensions Escalate After Pakistan Pounds Afghanistan with Airstrikes. Pakistan's recent air strikes inside Afghanistan have escalated tensions with the Afghan Taliban, marking the third major cross-border operation since the Taliban’s 2021 return to power. The strikes targeted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (T.T.P.) hideouts, killing several militants following an ambush that left 16 Pakistani soldiers dead. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of harboring the T.T.P., while Kabul condemns the strikes as violations of sovereignty, reporting civilian casualties, including Pakistani refugees. The T.T.P.’s resurgence, armed with resources seized during Afghanistan’s fall, has intensified attacks on Pakistan, resulting in over 1,600 fatalities in 2024 alone. Amid strained ties, Pakistan tightened trade and deported 800,000 undocumented Afghans. New York Times

Report finds security forces in Pakistan faced deadliest year for a decade while combating insurgency. In 2024, Pakistani security forces faced their deadliest year in nearly a decade, with 685 fatalities and 444 terror attacks, according to a report by the Center for Research and Security Studies. The report highlighted 1,612 cumulative fatalities among civilians and security personnel, a 73% increase compared to insurgent casualties. Militants carried out a 40% surge in attacks compared to 2023, with the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) suspected in many incidents. On Tuesday, separate militant attacks in the northwest killed three people, including a child, and injured several others. The TTP, a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, has increasingly targeted security forces, particularly in regions near the Afghan border. The military reported killing 950 militants in 2024 during 59,775 operations against insurgents. Despite these efforts, the deteriorating security situation underscores the challenges posed by the TTP's resurgence since the Afghan Taliban's return to power in 2021. Associated Press 

Tribal elders in Pakistan mediate accord between feuding Sunni and Shiite groups following deadly clashes. Authorities in Pakistan’s restive northwest have announced a peace deal between rival Sunni and Shiite tribes in the conflict-prone Kurram district, which borders Afghanistan, following deadly clashes that left over 130 people dead. Mediated by a grand assembly of tribal elders, the agreement requires both sides to demolish bunkers, surrender heavy weapons, and comply with local laws. Noncompliance would result in detention and punishment. The violence began on November 21, when gunmen ambushed a Shiite convoy and killed 52 people, triggering retaliatory attacks and escalating tensions. The clashes disrupted local life, halting traffic, trade, and access to essentials like food and medicine, forcing authorities to deliver supplies by helicopter. The peace deal, praised by officials, aims to restore calm, reopen roads, and resume trade with Afghanistan through the district’s Kharlachi border crossing. Kurram, Pakistan’s only Shiite-majority district, has faced longstanding sectarian and land disputes. VOA Associated Press 

AFRICA

France’s turmoil in Africa worsens, as Ivory Coast becomes latest nation to expel French soldiers. Ivory Coast has announced the withdrawal of French troops from its territory, joining other West African nations in reducing France's weakening influence in the region. President Alassane Ouattara stated on Tuesday that the Ivorian military’s modernization has made French forces unnecessary, and that Yamoussoukro “can be proud of our army.” France confirmed the withdrawal, which comes in the wake of similar moves in Senegal and Chad, limiting the European nation’s African military presence to Djibouti and Gabon. This development comes amid growing criticism of France's neocolonial practices and calls for sovereignty in its former colonies. While neighboring countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expressed skepticism about the withdrawals, accusing France of disguising its influence, Ouattara’s decision is seen as a potential bid to gain public support ahead of Ivory Coast’s presidential election. Despite troop withdrawals, France and Ivory Coast say they will maintain military cooperation, including counterterrorism efforts. New York Times Associated Press Al Jazeera BCC Reuters 

IS claims responsibility for attack on Somalian military base. The Islamic State on Wednesday took responsibility for an assault on a military base in Puntland, a region in northeastern Somalia, a day earlier. The group released a statement on its Telegram channel claiming that the attack was carried out by 12 fighters with two booby-trapped vehicles. IS also reported that it killed about 22 military personnel from the Puntland forces and wounded dozens of others. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Putin orders government, leading bank to expand AI research with China – Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued instructions to the country’s largest bank, Sberbank, and government departments to bolster AI cooperation with China.  Putin directed government components and Sberbank, the leader of Russia’s AI development, to ensure expanding cooperation with China in AI R&D, following up on his announcement at the recent BRICS summit that Russia would intensify AI collaboration with other nations.  On Dec. 11, Putin declared that a newly formed AI Alliance Network would serve as a catalyst for research cooperation among experts from BRICS countries and other nations.  A British AI global index currently ranks Russia 31st out of 83 countries in implementing, innovating, and investing in AI.  Reuters

U.S. visa program for highly skilled foreign workers provokes renewed debate – The H-1B visa program has triggered renewed debate between critics and supporters of the provision that allows highly skilled foreign workers in software development, computer science, and engineering, among other fields, to come to the U.S. Elon Musk, along with tech giants Amazon and Google, are among those who argue the program is vital to U.S. business competitiveness.  Opponents say the tech sector should be compelled to hire American workers.  Amazon, Infosys, Cognizant, and Google led the companies granted H-1B visas in 2024.  Holders of the H-1B visa eventually can apply for green cards that allow indefinite residency in the U.S.  Demand for the program from the tech sector is intense as job openings in the “professional and business services” sector are double the number of unemployed workers.  A controversial part of the program involves wages, with 60 percent of the H-1B positions certified by the government assigned wage levels well below local median wages for the occupation.  Efforts at reform include government steps to require increased wages for H-1B visa holders.  However, a related policy adopted during the first Trump administration was never enacted by the Biden White House.  Giovanni Peri, a University of California labor economist, pointed out that H-1B visa approvals are limited to “companies that are very well organized, which have a lot of lawyers, that send the application in time, all in perfect shape.”  Another University of California labor economist, Gaurav Khanna, noted that increases in H-1B visas result in more U.S. patents as well as higher incomes for workers in both the U.S. and India, the largest country of origin for H-1B visas.  Wall Street Journal

Taiwan launches ‘digital nomad’ visa program to fill tech skill gaps — Taiwan’s National Development Council has announced a program beginning in 2025 that will grant six-month visas to “digital nomads” from abroad to help fill gaps in skill areas attributed to declining birth rates.  The Council has set out to attract 400,000 foreign workers by 2032, including “foreign digital professionals” eligible for the six-month visas.  As of 2023, Taiwan had almost 70,000 foreign professionals and 750,000 registered migrant workers living in the country.  David Chang, an official with a Taipei nonprofit promoting digital skills, said “the launch of the visa serves as a signal that Taiwan is officially open to digital nomads.”  Liu Chin-ching, Taiwan’s national development minister, has commented that Taiwan’s leaders consider population growth a “national security crisis that cannot be solved in a short period of time.”  Liu said during a ceremony marking the start of the digital nomad visa program, “Taiwan has the best digital-nomad environment in Asia and has received international recognition in terms of living conditions, environment and food.”  The minister added that digital nomads are especially welcome to work in sectors benefiting from the government’s annual $4.57 billion investment in “innovative entrepreneurship.”  South China Morning Post

Chinese researchers say new stringent stealth standard applied to aircraft evaluations – Chinese defense scientists involved in development of the country’s next-generation fighter say the project is “pushing the boundaries” of stealth capabilities in all frequency bands against multi-angle radar illumination.  The researchers say they have applied much more stringent testing criteria than currently used by the military in examining new stealth coatings.  The new standards include requirements for stealth materials to be lightweight and thin and capable of absorbing high-frequency electromagnetic waves from advanced military radars.  The coating must also maintain low detection performance when illuminated by multi-directional radar emissions.  Zhou Hai, a researcher with the AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Design and Research Institute, said the new standard provides exacting criteria “for assessing the absorbing performance of stealth materials across all frequency bands” and has been applied to the selection of stealth materials for stealth combat aircraft.   The research team paper’s description of the stealth aircraft appears to be identical to a reported new Chinese stealth fighter.  Technical details of the new standard are included in the paper.  South China Morning Post

Chinese military project leads to development of ‘world’s first’ mobile 5G base station – A joint project of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the China Mobile Communications Group has led to the world’s first mobile 5G base station.  After rigorous evaluation, the 5G system is ready for deployment.  It reportedly provides unprecedented high-speed, low latency, secure and reliable data exchange services to up to 10,000 users in a two-mile radius.  The system can maintain uninterrupted throughput of 10 GB per second even in complex environments such as mountains or urban areas.  A team led by a senior PLA engineer described the 5G technology in a paper in the Telecommunications Science journal.  According to the paper, many tests have been performed on the system by the PLA, confirming its effectiveness in addressing issues “such as frequent disconnections and low speeds encountered in practical applications.”  The paper also noted that the 5G system can “autonomously complete core network base station data production, data loading, baseline parameter configuration and other tasks.”   South China Morning Post

Chinese aircraft carrier achieves ‘all-weather’ operational capability — The Chinese aircraft carrier, Shandong, has achieved “all-weather” combat capability, according to the Xinhua news agency.  In a year-end report, Xinhua said the Shandong, in comparison with earlier performance, “has significantly reduced aircraft launch preparation times, improved consecutive sortie readiness, and achieved round-the-clock all-weather operational capability in complex conditions.”  Xinhua spotlighted the carrier’s participation in recent naval exercises around Taiwan, including a drill in October that concentrated on port blockades.  Also in October, the Shandong operated alongside China’s first carrier, Liaoning, in maneuvers described as the PLA Navy’s first dual-carrier exercise.  Xinhua reported that the Shandong crew collaborated with researchers in overcoming more than  100 operational challenges and registering numerous technical advances.  South China Morning Post

China’s Tiangong space station research aims to overcome technology ‘chokepoints’ – The research program for China’s Tiangong space station has set out the goal of eradicating “space technology chokepoints” by conducting thousands of experiments over the next decade.  The China Manned Space Agency’s first performance review for the Tiangong station said that 181 experiments had been performed and two tons of scientific equipment delivered to the station as of December 1.  The review described goals for achieving “major breakthroughs in important areas at the basic frontier of international science and achieve systematic knowledge … in applied fundamentals and new technologies.”  Priority research areas will include meeting requirements for near-Earth and cislunar space activities as well as deep space exploration.  Overcoming “chokepoints” in precision measurement instruments, robots, propulsion and life support are among the research priorities.  The space agency’s review also listed over 70 achievements in four major research areas carried out on the Tiangong in furtherance of China’s plans for human space flight, lunar landings, and space exploration.  South China Morning Post

U.N. cybercrime treaty ratification process faces multiple obstacles – The next step for the U.N. cybercrime treaty, which was adopted by the General Assembly last week, is for 40 nations to ratify the convention for it to enter into force.  The ratification process could take years based on previous treaty pathways.  In the U.S., the treaty would require a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate as well as the approval of the new Trump administration.  The U.S. Mission to the U.N. already has indicated that how the treaty’s provisions for human rights and legal defense are implemented will be key to U.S. support.  Member states will have a certain amount of leeway in implementing the convention’s measures dealing with criminal use of communications technologies, including international collaboration and evidence sharing.  Karen Gullo, an analyst at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, told CyberScoop that many U.N. member states have poor records on human rights and national laws that criminalize free speech and gender expression.  Gullo added, “we’re advocating that states not ratify it until they are able to address where we think there are flaws, like human rights protections.”  Christopher Painter, a board member of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise, noted that while the treaty has flaws, it could help law enforcement efforts and contribute “more uniform, substantive laws and procedures around the world.”  CyberScoop

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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