Report for Thursday, February 6, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Thursday, February 6, 2025

Russia indicates talks with U.S. over Ukraine are intensifying

Trump shocks world with Gaza proposal

U.S. says American government ships will get free Panama Canal passage

Baltics brace for cyberattacks as they depart Russian electricity grid

Google AI ethical policy drops ban on weapons, surveillance applications

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Opinion: China’s Tech Sector Shouldn’t Grow at Expense of U.S. Companies. Retired Lieutenant General Michael Groen argues that China's technological advancements, particularly in AI, are coming at the expense of U.S. companies due to intellectual property theft, export control loopholes, and unfair competition practices. He criticizes U.S. policymakers, particularly the Biden-era Federal Trade Commission (FTC), for failing to adopt a national security-first approach. Groen highlights the FTC’s use of information from Temu, a Chinese e-commerce giant with ties to the Chinese Communist Party, in its antitrust case against Amazon. He urges U.S. regulators to prioritize national security over competition policy to maintain American technological leadership. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Preparations for Putin-Trump meeting at 'advanced stage,’ Russian lawmaker says. Preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are at an "advanced stage," Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky said Thursday. The meeting, expected in February or March, may cover nuclear arms control, global energy prices, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East. Slutsky, head of the State Duma's international affairs committee, emphasized the need for thorough preparation but declined to specify a date. Both leaders have expressed interest in talks, particularly on resolving the Ukraine war. Reuters

Russia Indicates Talks With U.S. Over Ukraine Are Intensifying. U.S. and Russian officials have intensified contacts over Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, marking the first time Moscow has confirmed ongoing talks. While he did not specify details, this aligns with Donald Trump’s claims that his team has been in discussions with Russia. Trump has promised to broker a deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky but has provided little evidence of progress. Despite calling Zelensky illegitimate, Moscow now signals readiness for talks. Putin, meanwhile, continues to praise Trump, even endorsing his false claims that the 2020 U.S. election was stolen from him. However, Putin remains unmoved on his core demands, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and a NATO membership ban. The path forward remains unclear, with key issues like sanctions relief and Ukraine’s future security arrangements unresolved. Wall Street Journal

US Set to Unveil Trump Plan to End Three-Year War in Ukraine. Donald Trump’s administration will present its Ukraine peace plan at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14-16, with special envoy Keith Kellogg leading discussions. The proposal reportedly includes freezing the war while offering Ukraine security guarantees. Trump has linked U.S. aid to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and signaled a willingness to pressure Kyiv and Moscow. He also plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, ending his diplomatic isolation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin have softened their stances on direct talks, while U.S.-Russia contacts have intensified. Trump has threatened Moscow with severe sanctions if it refuses negotiations. Vice President JD Vance will also attend Munich. Vance, a vocal critic of extensive U.S. military aid to Ukraine, may play a key role in shaping the administration’s approach. Kellogg is expected to visit Ukraine later this month for further talks. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says any peacekeeping force without US troops would be a 'major mistake.' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Sky News Wednesday that deploying a European-only peacekeeping force in Ukraine without U.S. troops would be a "major mistake," arguing it would give Russia an advantage. He stressed that security guarantees require U.S. involvement alongside European allies. Speaking after a meeting with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Kyiv, Zelensky warned NATO states to increase military spending now or risk being in Ukraine's position. Sky News

Kellogg says the chances of Ukraine regaining nuclear weapons are 'slim and none.' Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg dismissed the possibility of Ukraine regaining nuclear weapons, telling Fox News the chances are “somewhere between slim and none.” Kellogg is tasked by President Donald Trump with brokering an end to the war. In 1994, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine agreed to give Russia its nuclear arms in exchange for reassurances from Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. that its sovereignty and independence would be respected – a treaty Moscow has violated with its repeated invasions. Kellogg will attend the Munich Security Conference to assess NATO allies' positions, reinforcing Trump’s push for increased European defense spending and burden-sharing in Ukraine’s war efforts. Fox News

Zelensky: U.S. military aid was not cut, but no talks on new packages yet. Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that U.S. military aid to Ukraine continues without cuts, but no talks on new packages are underway. Speaking in Kyiv after meeting UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, he warned that losing U.S. support would weaken Ukraine’s defense. Recent U.S. weapons shipments briefly paused but resumed last weekend. Reuters

Ukraine sees a marked improvement in the accuracy of Russia's North Korean missiles. North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russia against Ukraine since December have become significantly more precise, landing within 50-100 meters of targets compared to the previous 1-3 kilometer range, Ukrainian officials told Reuters. Military expert Yang Uk said this improvement has global security implications, potentially enhancing North Korea’s threats to South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. or boosting its arms sales to unstable states. North Korea is likely refining its missile technology through battlefield use, with possible Russian assistance in navigation systems and guidance. A Ukrainian military source noted that forensic analysis had not identified design changes but suggested changes in targeting, maneuverability, or intelligence sharing. Despite Moscow and Pyongyang denying arms deals, Russia has launched around 100 North Korean missiles and received millions of artillery shells and troops from North Korea. Yang described the process as "customer feedback," with Russia aiding North Korea's weapons advancements, possibly in exchange for missile parts and space technology. Reuters

Russia to recruit 210,000 personnel for drone forces by 2030, Syrskyi says. Russia plans to establish unmanned systems forces with 210,000 personnel across 277 military units by 2030, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday. Drones have become central to both Russia's and Ukraine's military strategies, with 66% of Russian equipment losses in January attributed to Ukrainian attack drones. Ukraine has expanded its drone capabilities, including a new long-range model capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers. President Volodymyr Zelensky formalized Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces as a separate military branch, highlighting drones' increasing importance in warfare. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine accuses Russia of staging bomb attacks on its draft offices. Ukraine accused Russian intelligence of staging bomb attacks on draft offices, with the latest explosion in Khmelnytskyi killing one person and injuring four Wednesday. Police chief Ivan Vyhivskyi said Russian agents recruit operatives, often eliminating them afterward. A similar blast in Rivne on Saturday injured eight soldiers, with Ukraine’s security agency stating that Russian operatives detonated the device remotely. Army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi called for harsh punishment as the attacks exacerbate Ukraine’s recruitment struggles. Officials report increasing Russian espionage targeting military infrastructure as Russian forces advance. Kyiv warns these attacks aim to destabilize society and erode trust in the government. Reuters

First French Mirage fighter jets reportedly arrive in Ukraine — here's what they can do. The first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, with Ukrainian pilots trained in France now set to operate them, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on Thursday. These fourth-generation multirole jets can be equipped with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs for long-range strikes. Experts suggest they will enhance Ukraine’s air defense, counter drones, and support precision strikes on Russian positions. However, their limited range and vulnerability to Russian air defenses may restrict frontline ground attack missions, making long-range missile strikes their most effective role. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's military will roll out units of robotic vehicles. Ukraine’s military will establish robotic vehicle units to deploy at the front, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced Wednesday. The initiative follows trials with soldiers since mid-2024 and aims to expand the use of unmanned ground systems for offense, defense, logistics, casualty evacuation, and mine operations. With Ukrainian manpower reserves strained, officials see robotic vehicles as essential. Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov previously stated Ukraine would need tens of thousands of these vehicles in 2025. Both sides already use remotely controlled UGVs, as the war increasingly relies on automation and widespread drone warfare. Reuters

What are Ukraine's rare earths and why does Trump want them? Donald Trump wants Ukraine to supply rare earths to the U.S. in exchange for financial support. This aligns with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s "victory plan," which seeks agreements with foreign partners to exploit Ukraine’s resources. Rare earths—17 metals essential for EVs, missile systems, and electronics—have no substitutes. China dominates global production, and Trump has previously sought U.S. control over Greenland’s rare earths. Ukraine holds 22 of the EU’s 34 critical minerals, including large titanium and lithium reserves. However, about 40% of its metal resources and much of its coal are under Russian control. The Ukrainian government is working with the U.S., UK, France, and Italy on mining projects, but regulatory hurdles and war-related disruptions pose challenges. Kyiv is preparing 100 sites for development, estimating a $12-15 billion investment potential by 2033. Ukraine’s reserves, especially graphite and lithium, are crucial for global supply chains. Reuters

Ukraine wants partner countries to join in postwar development worth billions. Ukraine is seeking postwar investment from partner countries in rare earth mining, energy, and construction, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Wednesday. He emphasized securing major business involvement from allies, particularly the U.S., to develop and protect these resources. Ukraine aims to become a key player in European energy security by storing and distributing liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Sybiha highlighted joint interest between Ukrainian and American businesses in reconstruction, estimated to cost over $400 billion. The government positions these projects as major economic opportunities for allies while ensuring Ukraine’s long-term recovery and strategic value. Associated Press

Ukraine Still Has Kursk as Bargaining Chip for Any Russia Talks. Ukraine’s continued control of part of Russia’s Kursk region complicates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for negotiations. While Russia has made gains in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s foothold in Kursk gives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky leverage in potential territorial exchanges. Putin appears more focused on sustaining pressure on Ukraine. The Kremlin’s strategy remains to prolong the war to dictate terms, but Kursk’s occupation underscores Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia’s narrative, potentially forcing concessions in talks brokered by the U.S. and its allies. Bloomberg

Ukraine brings back 150 POWs in latest swap with Russia, Zelensky says. Ukraine has brought back 150 troops from Russian captivity, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, announcing the latest prisoner swap with Russia. "All of them are from different sectors of the front... Some of the boys were held captive for more than two years," he said on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters

Zelensky extends martial law and mobilization in Ukraine until May 9.  President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed laws extending martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine to May 9. The Ukrainian parliament passed the measures on Jan. 15 after Zelensky submitted the draft laws. Due to Russia's invasion, martial law has existed since February 2022. Zelenskyy previously stated that elections could only be held after the active phase of the war ends and martial law is lifted. This marks nearly three years of wartime mobilization. Ukrainska Pravda

Russian Army Claims Capture of 2 More Villages in Eastern Ukraine. Russia's Defense Ministry announced Wednesday the capture of Novomlynsk in the Kharkiv region and Baranivka near Ocheretyne as its forces push for gains ahead of potential peace talks. Russian troops have recently crossed the Oskil River, strengthening their foothold in northeastern Ukraine. Moscow has reported near-daily advances in the east, seeking to consolidate positions as the war enters its third year. Moscow Times

68% of Poles and 44% of Czechs want Ukraine to win war against Russia. A CEDMO poll marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion shows that 68% of Poles and 44% of Czechs want Ukraine to win the war. In Slovakia, less than a third support a Ukrainian victory, while 17% favor Russia. Many respondents fear a prolonged war, with 67% in Czechia and 71% in Slovakia expressing concerns. Around 55% of Czechs and three-fifths of Slovaks worry about a Russia-NATO escalation. While 49% of Poles back continued military aid to Ukraine, nearly 60% of Czechs disapprove of their government’s support for Kyiv. The survey was conducted in late 2024. Ukrainska Pravda

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Feb. 5. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that any peace deal weakening Ukraine’s defense would invite another Russian invasion. He said Ukraine cannot hold elections under martial law and dismissed Kremlin claims that his presidency is illegitimate. Zelensky estimated Russian losses since 2022 at 300,000-350,000 killed and 600,000-700,000 wounded, with an additional 50,000-70,000 missing. Ukraine struck an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai as part of a broader campaign against Russian defense industry targets. Russia is revoking military districts’ authority over naval and air forces, potentially streamlining command for ground operations. The Kremlin prioritizes internal stability over economic and labor concerns, tightening migration restrictions to appease nationalist factions. Ukraine and Russia exchanged 150 prisoners each, with United Arab Emirates mediation.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian troops made gains near Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: In Ukraine, Trump and Kellogg must avoid the road to Yalta. Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth argue that retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg’s efforts to negotiate an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine risk leading to a modern-day Yalta Conference, conceding to Vladimir Putin. They criticize the Trump administration’s view of the war as a stalemate and warn that Moscow will only negotiate if militarily forced. They advocate stronger Ukrainian battlefield success, targeting Russian logistics beyond Ukraine’s borders and rejecting Putin’s demands for territorial concessions and military restrictions. Without decisive action, they caution, a new Iron Curtain could fall, solidifying Russian control over Eastern Europe. The Hill

THE AMERICAS

Trump shocked the world with his plan to move Palestinians out of Gaza and transform it into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East.’ Could that work?  President Donald Trump’s stunning proposal to move hundreds of thousands of Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip and redevelop it as a tourist paradise faces major obstacles. Although miles of Gaza are uninhabitable, Palestinians don’t want to leave, citing the trauma of the Nakba, catastrophe, when Palestinians were forced out of their homes upon the founding of Israel in 1948. Palestinians have won international support for their struggle for a state located on their ancient homeland.  Egypt and Jordan have rejected Trump’s plan for Gaza and his suggestion that they resettle Palestinian refugees on their territory. Egypt, a key mediator in the ceasefire, has warned that moving  Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza could undermine its peace treaty with Israel.  Saudi Arabia dismissed Trump’s ideas and said it won’t normalize relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state is established. The Western-backed Palestinian Authority has condemned Trump’s plan. Critics say his surprising announcement threatens the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and release of remaining hostages.  On Wednesday, Trump aides appeared to talk back some of his more controversial statements.  On Tuesday, he said the U.S. would take “a long-term ownership position” in Gaza and American troops might be necessary to hold the peace. But on Wednesday, Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy to the Middle East, told Republican senators that Trump “doesn’t want to put any U.S. troops on the ground, and he doesn’t want to spend any U.S. dollars at all” on Gaza, Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri said. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters that “the president has not committed to putting boots on the ground in Gaza. He has also said that the United States is not going to pay for the rebuilding of Gaza. His administration is going to work with our partners in the region to reconstruct this region.”  Associated Press  New York Times   New York Times 

U.N. chief Guterres warns against ethnic cleansing in Gaza following Trump remarks. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday against ethnic cleansing in Gaza after the GOP leader proposed relocating Palestinians and having the U.S. take control of the enclave. Guterres stressed the importance of staying “true to the bedrock of international law,” and reaffirmed the two-state solution as the only path to lasting peace. The United Nations supports the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, with Gaza as an integral part. Guterres emphasized that ending the occupation and achieving a viable Palestinian state are essential for lasting stability in the region. Reuters The Guardian UN News 

Business deals in the Middle East may pose conflicts for the Trump family. The Trump family has engaged in new international real-estate deals, mostly branding deals, which bring in tens of millions of dollars in fees for the use of the Trump name, the New York Times reported Wednesday. One deal is with Saudi-based real estate company,  Dar Al Arkan, building high-rise luxury apartments, golf courses and hotels in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Dubai. The Trump Organization has received at least $7.5 million from the Oman  hotel and golf course deal, financial reports show.  The Dar Al Arkan company has close ties with the Saudi royal family, the Times reported. Trump International Golf Club, Dubai, opened in 2017. The Trump family’s partner for this venture is DAMAC Properties, run by Hussain Sajwani, a billionaire real-estate executive who, Mr. Trump said in December, plans to invest billions of dollars  in U.S. data centers.  The Trump family also has been a partner with LIV Golf, the professional golf league financed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. It will hold a tournament at the Trump National Doral near Miami in April.  The president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, runs a private equity firm, Affinity Partners, that has raised $4.5 billion, mostly from sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and has invested in at least two Israel-based businesses: Phoenix Holdings, an insurance company, and the car leasing division of Shlomo Holdings. Kushner’s business partner at Shlomo Holdings is a partial owner of Israel’s domestic builder of warships. It was Kushner who suggested Gaza as a potential resort.  “Gaza’s waterfront property could be very valuable,” Kushner said last year at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. He said Israel could “move the people out and then clean it up.” New York Times  

C.I.A. sends White House an unclassified email with names of China specialists. On orders from the White House, C.I.A. officials sent an unclassified email listing all employees hired over the last two years. The list included first names and the first initial of the last name of the new hires, who are still on probation — and easy to fire. Many were hired to focus on China. Their identities are usually secret because Chinese hackers are constantly trying to identify them. Some former officials said they feared that if Elon Musk’s team received the list, the names could be exposed and targeted by China, Russia or other foreign intelligence services. The New York Times called the dissemination a clear “counterintelligence disaster.” New York Times  

Top Justice Department official accuses F.B.I. execs of ‘insubordination.’  Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove, formerly a lawyer on President Donald Trump’s legal defense team, Wednesday accused FBI’s executives of “insubordination.” Bove wrote a memo that said that the several thousand agents “who simply followed orders and carried out their duties in an ethical manner” while assigned to help investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack would not be fired. But agents found to have “acted with corrupt or partisan intent” would face discipline or dismissal, he said. Rank-and-file agents do not choose which cases they work on. Yet on Friday the Justice Department made an extraordinary and unprecedented demand for names of agents who participated in the investigations. Many within the FBI fear mass firings. Thousands of FBI employees who participated in Jan. 6  investigations were sent in-depth questionnaires about their involvement in the inquiries as Trump’s Justice Department weighs disciplinary actions.  FBI employees filed two lawsuits Tuesday to stop the collection and potential disclosure of names of investigators. A hearing is scheduled on Thursday.Bove, in his memo Wednesday, accused the FBI’s acting leadership of “insubordination” for resisting his requests last week “to identify the core team” responsible for Jan. 6 investigations. After acting Director Brian Driscoll refused to comply, Bove wrote. Responding to Bove’s request, the FBI provided personnel details about several thousand employees, identifying them by unique employee numbers rather than by names.  Associated Press  Reuters  Reuters

Senate’s top appropriator says Musk has gone too far. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, told reporters Wednesday that President Donald Trump “appears to have empowered Elon Musk far beyond what I think is appropriate. I think a lot of it is going to end up in court.” Collins expressed unease with Musk’s attacks on the U.S. Agency for International Development and intrusion into the federal payment system and Congressional spending power. She still plans to vote to confirm Russ Vought as White House budget chief Thursday. Politico 

Retired Army brigadier general known for inflammatory comments tapped to run Pentagon personnel office. President Donald Trump has nominated Anthony Tata, a sharp-tongued retired Army brigadier general and Fox News regular who once called former President Barack Obama a “terrorist leader,” to be Pentagon personnel chief, in charge of ridding the Defense Department of diversity programs and transgender troops.  Trump nominated Tata for a high-level policy job in his first term but gave up when Senate leaders resisted. Tata called Obama an antisemite in 2018, attacked Democratic politicians such as Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters and tweeted that “Islam fuels more terror than any other religion or ideology.”  Late in Trump’s first term, he was briefly installed as the Pentagon’s acting policy chief.  For his second term Pentagon team, Trump tapped Bradley Hansell, a Navy and Army Special Forces veteran who served on the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, as undersecretary of Defense for intelligence and security; Robert Kaldec, a career Air Force officer who helped spearhead the program to develop a Covid vaccine as an assistant secretary of Defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological Defense programs; and Matthew Lohmeier,  a former Space Force officer, to be the Air Force’s undersecretary. Politico 

U.S. Blindsides Panama, Saying American Government Ships Will Get Free Canal Passage. The U.S. and Panama issued conflicting statements on Wednesday regarding free passage for U.S. government ships through the Panama Canal. The State Department claimed all fees would be waived, saving the U.S. millions annually, while the Panama Canal Authority denied any such agreement. The dispute follows Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Panama, where discussions were held on granting U.S. Navy vessels priority access. Panamanian officials warned that preferential treatment could violate a 1977 treaty requiring equal terms for all canal users. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to "take back" the canal, expressed dissatisfaction, hinting at further action. While Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino has made concessions, including ending participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, many Panamanian politicians have demanded transparency on negotiations. The U.S. built the canal and transferred it to Panama in 1999, a deal Trump has long criticized as unfavorable to American interests. The U.S. and Panama have agreed to expand military cooperation, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Jose Raul Mulino reaffirming their commitment to "safeguard" the Panama Canal. Panama has also pledged to audit Chinese-operated ports amid U.S. scrutiny. Wall Street Journal  Reuters Axios Nikkei Asia U.S. Department of Defense. Reuters CNN France 24  

Treasury Secretary Bessent says tariffs are aimed at bringing manufacturing back to US. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, stating they aim to restore domestic manufacturing, particularly in medical supplies and shipbuilding. He described tariffs as a temporary measure, with tax revenues from repatriated industries eventually offsetting tariff income. Bessent also acknowledged that tariffs on Colombia, Mexico, and Canada were intended to influence immigration policy rather than generate revenue. He reiterated support for Trump’s trade strategy, which he previously backed during his confirmation hearing. The administration’s broader trade team includes Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick and Chief Trade Negotiator nominee Jamieson Greer. Reuters Fox Business  

China's retaliatory tariffs on crude are likely to push US exports lower in 2025. China’s newly imposed 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil is expected to reduce American exports in 2025, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. crude export growth stalled in 2024, rising just 0.6% as shale production remained constrained. China accounted for only 5% of U.S. crude exports last year, favoring discounted Russian and Iranian oil. Analysts suggest that medium-sour crude, which makes up nearly half of U.S. shipments to China, may be redirected to domestic refiners, especially if U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico are implemented. Meanwhile, light sweet crude may still find buyers in Europe and India. Reuters

Trump team considers demanding WHO reform, including an American in charge. The Trump administration is considering a major overhaul of the World Health Organization (WHO), including appointing a U.S. official as director-general when Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus's term ends in 2027. President Donald Trump has already signed an executive order to exit the WHO by 2026, accusing it of mismanagement and foreign influence. A policy proposal suggests reforms but acknowledges withdrawal could harm U.S. interests. The WHO denies claims of inefficiency, citing recent structural improvements. The U.S. has halted collaboration, including with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but maintains a delegation at WHO meetings. Lawmakers and activists are urging Trump to reconsider the exit. Reuters 

Trump’s order on birthright citizenship blocked by a second federal judge. A federal judge in Maryland has blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order restricting birthright citizenship, ruling that it violates the 14th Amendment. U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman issued a nationwide injunction on Wednesday, preventing the order from taking effect later this month as planned. The ruling follows multiple lawsuits, including at least six federal cases. Trump’s order, set to begin February 19, aimed to deny citizenship to children born in the U.S. to undocumented immigrants and foreigners on temporary visas. The administration argued that these individuals are not fully under U.S. jurisdiction, but legal scholars and Supreme Court precedent reject this view. The judge cited the 1898 Wong Kim Ark case, which affirmed that children born on American soil are citizens, except for foreign diplomats. The Trump administration is expected to appeal, but advocates called the ruling a major victory. Washington Post Associated Press BBC Fox News 

Rubio secures second deportation deal, this time with Guatemala. Guatemala has agreed to increase deportation flights from the U.S. by 40% and accept migrants of other nationalities transiting back to their home countries, announced President Bernardo Arevalo, alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on Wednesday. However, the country will not accept deported criminals. This move aligns with President Donald Trump’s push to deport millions of undocumented migrants. Meanwhile, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has offered to take in criminals, including American citizens convicted of violent crimes. To support deportees, This month, Guatemala launched a reintegration program, helping returnees find jobs, obtain professional certifications, and integrate into the workforce, particularly in tourism for English speakers. The U.S. is also assisting with infrastructure expansion, including a new registration center in Guatemala City that provides housing and educational support. Arevalo reassured migrants that they will receive government support upon return. Bloomberg Associated Press 

U.S. federal agencies target illegal immigrants in Colorado. Federal agents conducted immigration raids in Aurora, Colorado, on Wednesday, purportedly targeting over 100 alleged members of the notorious Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. However, eyewitnesses reported that agents knocked on all doors, appearing to detain anyone suspected of being in the U.S. illegally, rather than focusing solely on gang members. The operation involved multiple federal agencies, including ICE, the FBI, DEA, ATF, and U.S. Marshals. While ICE did not disclose the number of arrests, local reports indicated several detainees were handcuffed and moved onto buses. The raid comes amid President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration, after he issued executive orders last month to increase deportations. During a rally in Colorado last year, he announced "Operation Aurora", a national effort to target gang members. On Wednesday, Denver Mayor Mike Johnston criticized the operation, stating that local police were not informed. Colorado Governor Jared Polis supported efforts to apprehend dangerous criminals but called for more transparency from the federal government. Reuters NBC USA Today 

Mexico sending National Guard soldiers to border with U.S. following Trump’s tariff threat. In exchange for U.S. President Donald Trump’s promise to delay tariffs on Mexico for at least a month, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vowed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to fortify the border and deal with prolific fentanyl smuggling. Armed National Guard and Army units arrived in cities like Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana on Wednesday, patrolling the border and removing makeshift ladders and ropes used for crossings. At least 1,650 troops have been sent to Ciudad Juárez and 1,949 to Tijuana, marking a major military presence. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio thanked Mexico for the reinforcements during his Latin America tour. Sheinbaum’s handling of the negotiations is seen as a strategic move, showcasing her ability to navigate Trump’s presidency, despite earlier skepticism. Meanwhile, the U.S. pledged to curb gun trafficking into Mexico to combat cartel violence.  Associated Press 

10 ‘high-threat’ migrants touch down at Guantanamo Bay, says Pentagon. The Pentagon on Wednesday announced the arrival of 10 undocumented migrants to detention facilities at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as part of the Trump administration’s expanded immigration enforcement efforts. President Donald Trump recently ordered the Defense and Homeland Security departments to increase detention capacity at the naval base, aiming to eventually hold up to 30,000 people. The Defense Department described the detainees as “high-threat illegal aliens” but did not disclose their criminal history or country of origin. Immigration advocates have raised concerns that using Guantanamo Bay for migrant detention could deny detainees due process, similar to past criticisms of its use for terror suspects after 9/11.  Bloomberg France 24 VOA   

U.S. set to seize Venezuelan strongman’s plane held in Dominican Republic.The Trump administration is planning to seize a second Venezuelan government plane used by President Nicolás Maduro and his top aides, currently located in the Dominican Republic. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to announce the seizure on Feb. 6th during his visit to Santo Domingo as part of his Central America tour. The Dassault Falcon 200 has been used for travel to countries like Greece, Turkey, Russia, and Cuba, which Washington claims violates sanctions. The seizure required Rubio’s approval of a foreign aid freeze waiver to cover $230,000 in maintenance fees, along with authorization from the Department of Justice. This follows the U.S. seizure of another Venezuelan plane in September 2024, which was allegedly purchased through a shell company to evade sanctions. Associated Press Bloomberg

EUROPE

Poland spends big on arms to stay friends with Trump. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized that Poland’s record-high military spending is designed to keep the U.S. engaged in NATO and deter Russia. Poland is allocating 4.7% of GDP to defense, spending up to $60 billion on American weapons, hoping to align with Donald Trump’s administration. “Europe should invest more in security to retain the presence of the Americans in Europe and not to replace them,” Kosiniak-Kamysz warned, urging allies to follow Poland’s lead. Trump wants NATO members to increase spending to 5% of GDP, which Poland supports. While backing Ukraine’s European integration, Poland opposes sending troops. Warsaw recently signed a $745 million arms deal for advanced weaponry, signaling further military expansion. Kosiniak-Kamysz stressed that NATO’s deterrence strategy must be strong enough to make any Russian attack unpredictable and disastrous. He also cautioned that countries failing to meet NATO’s 2% spending target should catch up before discussing further increases. Politico EU

Baltics brace for cyberattacks as they depart Russian electricity grid. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will disconnect from the Russian-controlled BRELL power grid on Feb. 9, joining the European Union network, prompting concerns over Russian cyber retaliation. Estonia’s Cyber Security Centre is prepared with a cyber reserve, while Lithuania has bolstered infrastructure protection. Cyber experts warn of potential attacks, citing Russia’s history of targeting power grids, with elite hacking group Sandworm actively probing Eastern Europe. Baltic leaders also suspect Russia’s sabotage of undersea cables as intimidation. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal dismissed Moscow’s pressure, stating the region is determined to break free from Russian influence, calling it an unreliable partner. Politico EU

Prosecutors probe Russian role in buying software for EU border system. European prosecutors are investigating how the Moscow office of French IT firm Atos helped to build the European Union’s new Entry/Exit System (EES). The system will establish the bloc’s biggest personal information database, storing biometric and personal data on non-EU travelers. The French IT group Atos used staff in Russia to buy software in 2021 for the highly sensitive project. Documents suggest Atos Russia operated under a license that would allow access to its work from the Russian Security Service (FSB), raising obvious security concerns. Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s security services, said the FSB “can look at everything this company is working on.” While EU-Lisa insists no breach occurred, experts warn that Russian authorities could have gained insight into the system. The probe underscores vulnerabilities in EU border security infrastructure and highlights risks posed by foreign contractors with links to adversarial states, prompting calls for stricter security measures before the EES launches. Financial Times

Germany: Police suspect Russia behind car vandalism. German police suspect Russian involvement in a sabotage campaign targeting over 270 cars across Berlin, Brandenburg, Bavaria, and Baden-Württemberg. Vandals stuffed exhaust pipes with construction foam and left stickers featuring Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, aiming to blame the Green Party. A detained suspect claimed he was paid by a Russian via Viber, with perpetrators receiving €100 per car. Security officials see this as part of a broader effort to destabilize Germany before the Feb. 23 election. The Interior Ministry is investigating, while intelligence services warn of Russian recruitment of petty criminals for sabotage due to tightened Western security measures. Deutsche Welle Politico EU

Trump resistance? A 1940s US sabotage manual goes viral. Downloads of the Simple Sabotage Field Manual, a 1944 OSS guide for resistance efforts, have surged following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The manual, which advises small-scale workplace disruptions to undermine authoritarian rule, became the most downloaded book on Project Gutenberg after Trump’s inauguration. Intelligence experts suggest its newfound popularity reflects growing grassroots opposition, mirroring past trends like 1984 during Trump’s first term. Some federal employees are reportedly discussing ways to resist Trump’s policies from within. Analysts see its appeal spanning anti-establishment groups, from Trump’s far-right critics to those opposing his administration and Elon Musk. France 24

Greek defense minister calls for EU to loosen strict defense spending limits. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias urged the European Union to ease strict defense spending limits to enhance military self-sufficiency, calling the current fiscal rules "schizophrenic." Speaking on Wednesday after talks with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas, Dendias emphasized that stronger European defense would complement NATO, not undermine it. Greece and Cyprus joined 19 other EU members in calling for expanded European Investment Bank funding for security. Christodoulides said key defense decisions from recent EU talks would be ratified at an upcoming summit as Cyprus commits to upgrading its air and naval bases in cooperation with the U.S. Associated Press

Britain’s handover of the Chagos Islands is pleasing nobody. The UK’s agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while leasing back the Diego Garcia military base has sparked controversy over national security and geopolitical risks. Prime Minister Keir Starmer argues the deal is necessary to ensure the legal status of the base, a vital US-UK military hub in the Indo-Pacific. Critics, including opposition Conservatives and Trump administration officials, warn the agreement could weaken Western security and open the door to Chinese influence. Chagossian groups feel sidelined, fearing loss of autonomy. With the White House yet to approve, concerns over strategic stability and financial costs remain. Bloomberg Politico The Independent   

Italy says International Criminal Court made an ‘immense mess’ out of Libyan warlord arrest warrant. Italy’s repatriation of Libyan warlord Ossama al-Masri, wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes, has sparked legal and political controversy. Justice Minister Carlo Nordio defended the decision, arguing the ICC warrant contained contradictions and procedural flaws. Critics, including opposition lawmakers and human rights groups, accuse the government of violating its ICC obligations and caving to Libyan pressure to prevent retaliation through increased migration. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, now under investigation, frames the move as a national security decision. The case highlights tensions between international justice, political expediency, and Italy’s strategic relationship with Libya.  Associated Press Euronews 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Palestinians shouldn’t be forced out of Gaza, says Israeli ambassador to the U.N. Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon has expressed support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for Washington to take control of Gaza, though he said that he doesn’t believe Palestinians should be forcibly removed. Trump announced the plan during a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pledging to rebuild the shattered enclave and relocate its 2 million residents to neighboring countries. He did not rule out deploying U.S. troops to administer the territory. Netanyahu endorsed the idea. Danon acknowledged uncertainty about how the plan would be implemented, but insisted that without an alternative, Palestinians would remain where they are, as Israel refuses to allow Hamas to continue governing Gaza. He stressed that as long as Hamas remains in power, Israel would be forced to take military action again in the future. Politico

Palestinians, alarmed by Trump’s Gaza plan, fear a repeat of the 1948 Nakba. This year, Palestinians will mark the 77th anniversary of the Nakba, the 1948 mass expulsion that led to the displacement of 700,000 Palestinians during the Arab-Israeli war. However, many believe the current crisis in Gaza surpasses that historical tragedy, with 47,000 killed in the war, and 1.7 million displaced. U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to resettle Gazans outside the territory and have Washington take control of Gaza has fueled fears of a new Nakba. The international community strongly opposes any mass expulsion, though far-right Israeli politicians support it under the label of “voluntary emigration.” Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has been among the most destructive in modern history, with entire neighborhoods leveled by heavy bombing. Many Palestinians fear they will never return to their homes, as the rebuilding process could take decades. Even if mass displacement does not occur, scholars warn that gradual forced migration—due to unbearable living conditions—may lead to another long-term Palestinian exodus. Palestinians argue that discriminatory policies, settlement expansion, and military actions have already created an ongoing Nakba, making life increasingly unlivable in Gaza and the occupied territories. Associated Press 

Israel orders army to prepare for 'voluntary departure' of Gazans after Trump unveils plan. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the army to prepare a plan for the "voluntary departure" of Gaza’s residents after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a controversial plan to take control of Gaza and resettle its population. Israel Katz suggested that countries critical of Israel’s actions, including Spain and Ireland, should accept Palestinian refugees. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Donald Trump’s proposal as “remarkable,” while Hamas official Basem Naim dismissed it as “ridiculous and absurd.” The plan drew international condemnation, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jordan’s King Abdullah II, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi rejecting any forced displacement. The United Nations and European leaders also warned that such actions would violate international law. The proposal has further strained Israel’s relations with regional and global powers. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Trump’s sovereign wealth fund: a new economic weapon against China? President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to establish a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, which analysts believe could become a rival to China’s state investment vehicle and potentially target Chinese overseas assets. Trump has suggested that the fund could even be used to acquire TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media app facing a possible U.S. ban. Experts warn that the fund could be used in a financial conflict against China, competing for tech investments and strategic assets. However, details on how it will be financed remain unclear, with Trump previously hinting that tariffs on Chinese imports could provide funding. Critics question whether such a fund is financially viable, especially compared to China Investment Corporation (CIC), which holds $1.3 trillion in assets. Trump’s push for the fund aligns with his campaign promises and could serve as a tool to target Chinese firms operating in the U.S. Analysts suggest that ByteDance and TikTok could be just the beginning, raising concerns over broader U.S. actions against Chinese businesses. The fund is also expected to support domestic infrastructure, manufacturing, and medical research, signaling a shift toward state-driven economic policy in the U.S. South China Morning Post New York Times Al Jazeera 

China's Xi meets Thai prime minister with trade, online scams in focus. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra met in Beijing to strengthen ties as Thailand marks 50 years of diplomatic relations with China. Xi emphasized deepening mutual trust and expanding cooperation in trade, digital economy, and electric vehicles. They also discussed security concerns, particularly combating online fraud, after a Chinese actor was abducted in Thailand and taken to Myanmar. Thailand reassured China of improved tourist safety measures, as Chinese visitors are crucial to its economy. The meeting took place amid rising U.S.-China tensions, including new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, adding economic uncertainty. Reuters 

Cook Islands PM to visit China soon, bolster ties. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China from February 10 to 14, marking the first visit by a leader of the island nation in a decade. The trip aims to strengthen economic ties with China, focusing on trade, climate, investment, tourism, and infrastructure, while ensuring the Cook Islands maintains its sovereignty and national interests. The visit comes amid Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific and concerns from some Pacific nations over U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign aid cuts, immigration policies, and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The Cook Islands, a self-governing territory in free association with New Zealand, has a population of 15,000, though nearly 100,000 Cook Island Maori live in New Zealand. While Wellington assists with foreign affairs, defense, and disaster response, it recently rejected a proposal for Cook Islands passports, though discussions on full independence remain open. During his visit, Brown plans to finalize a joint action plan for a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with China, though details have not been disclosed. New Zealand expects to be consulted on any agreements that may have strategic or security implications. Reuters 

Pentagon chief Hegseth discusses ‘deterrence’ in contested South China Sea with Philippines.  U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., held a call on Wednesday, during which the Pentagon head reiterated Washington’s commitment to its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila, and stressed the importance of deterrence in the South China Sea amid rising tensions with China. Hegseth also pledged support to strengthen the Philippine military’s capabilities. The Philippines is seeking continued U.S. backing as it pushes back against China’s aggressive actions in the disputed waters, including water cannon and military-grade laser use. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reiterated his country’s determination to defend its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and ensure fishermen can exercise their rights. The U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines recently conducted joint maritime drills in Philippine waters to enhance defense coordination. China maintains that its activities in the South China Sea are legal and did not immediately comment on the latest developments. Bloomberg 

South Korea's impeached prime minister says cabinet expressed concerns over martial law plan. Impeached South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo told parliament that all ministers at a December 3 meeting objected to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. The decree, lasting six hours, triggered a political crisis before being overturned by lawmakers. Military officers testified they were ordered to blockade parliament and prevent lawmakers from reaching quorum to nullify the decree. Yoon, facing impeachment and a separate insurrection trial, denied wrongdoing. Suspended Army commander Kwak Jong-geun testified that Yoon directly ordered him to remove lawmakers. The Constitutional Court will decide whether to reinstate or permanently remove Yoon from office. Reuters

Pakistan asserts extremist attacks won’t harm ‘all-weather’ friendship with China. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday reaffirmed his country’s strong ties with China, stating that despite extremist attacks against Chinese nationals, the friendship remains unbreakable. Speaking at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Zardari stressed that Pakistan stands with China against any attempts to disrupt their relationship. Thousands of Chinese workers are involved in Belt and Road Initiative projects in Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, attacks on Chinese nationals have raised concerns; last year, seven Chinese citizens were killed in separate attacks. Meanwhile, China-funded infrastructure projects continue, such as a $230 million airport in Gwadar, a key part of CPEC, despite security challenges from Balochistan separatist attacks. Xi also reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to working with Pakistan toward modernization and economic cooperation. Associated Press 

Australia passes tough hate crime laws with mandatory jail time for Nazi salutes. Australia passed strict hate crime laws, introducing mandatory jail sentences for hate-related offenses, including displaying Nazi symbols. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, initially hesitant, supported the amendments amid rising antisemitic attacks. The law imposes minimum sentences of one year for hate crimes and up to six years for terrorism-related offenses. Critics argue mandatory sentencing undermines judicial discretion, while supporters insist it sends a strong message against hate crimes. The law will be reviewed after two years to assess its effectiveness in addressing racial and religious violence across Australia.  Reuters Australian Broadcasting Corporation   

AFRICA

Eastern Congo’s fragile ceasefire appears to collapse as rebels seize another town. M23 rebels backed by Rwanda on Wednesday seized the mining town of Nyabibwe in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's South Kivu province, violating the tenuous unilateral ceasefire they declared earlier this week. The town, a key commercial hub producing gold and coltan, brings the rebels closer to Bukavu, the provincial capital, despite their previous claims that they would not capture it. Fighting broke out early in the morning, and by 9 a.m., Nyabibwe had fallen to the insurgents. Congo’s armed forces are resisting, while M23 claims they only acted in self-defense. They are moving closer and closer to Kavumu airport, which is crucial for military and humanitarian operations; U.N. officials warn that losing both Goma and Kavumu airports would further destabilize the region and worsen the crisis. The capture of the Nyabibwe comes in the wake of M23’s seizure of Goma last week, which displaced hundreds of thousands of people and sparked fears of a broader regional conflict. According to the U.N.’s deputy representative in Congo, the M23 and the Rwandan forces assisting them control all exit routes from Goma. The human toll of the conflict is severe, with at least 2,800 civilians reported dead in Goma, where hospitals have been overwhelmed, buildings destroyed, and a Red Cross medical warehouse looted. Meanwhile, Congo has issued an international arrest warrant for Corneille Nangaa, a rebel leader, accusing him of war crimes and treason. Leaders from East and Southern Africa plan to meet in Tanzania on February 7-8 to discuss the escalating conflict. Reuters Associated Press CNN Bloomberg The Guardian 

Malawi troops ordered to prepare exit from Congo’s bloody east. Malawi's President Lazarus Chakwera has ordered the Malawi Defense Force to begin preparations for the withdrawal of its soldiers from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Malawian troops are part of a regional military mission under the Southern African regional bloc, which was deployed to help Congo combat armed insurgents. The decision follows a ceasefire declaration by the M23 rebel alliance, which announced a truce for humanitarian reasons earlier this week. The withdrawal, a statement said, aims to clear the way for “planned negotiations towards a lasting peace." However, the fragile ceasefire collapsed on Wednesday, when fighting resumed and rebels seized the mining town of Nyabibwe. Reuters

Trump aid freeze hinders relief in restive Congo as bodies rot in the streets. The Trump administration’s freeze on nearly all foreign aid is slowing humanitarian efforts in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where heavy fighting last week led to the deaths of nearly 3,000 people. The United Nations and other organizations have recovered 2,000 bodies from the streets of Goma, now under the control of M23 rebels, while another 900 remain in morgues. U.N. officials fear that the toll will rise further, and warn that decomposing bodies could trigger disease outbreaks. The situation in Goma remains dire, with a closed airport, worsening security, and a dwindling supply of essentials. The decision by the Trump administration to halt U.S. foreign aid, including USAID funding, has forced many relief groups to stop operations. The U.S. was Congo’s top humanitarian donor last year, contributing over $916 million. Bloomberg 

ICC tribunal closely monitoring Congo violence. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is closely monitoring the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Rwandan-backed M23 rebels are advancing following the seizure of Goma and Nyabibwe. ICC prosecutors stated that credible sources report thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, including among civilians and peacekeepers, due to ongoing clashes between the M23 and Congolese armed forces. They have called for information on possible crimes committed during the conflict. ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan previously announced a renewed investigation into alleged crimes in North Kivu province, where Goma is located, focusing on events since January 2022. His office confirmed that the investigation remains active and urgent. Reuters Deutsche Welle Barron's 

Rubio will not attend G20 meeting in South Africa amid tensions. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday announced that he will not attend the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg, citing concerns over South Africa’s land expropriation policies and its focus on inequality, climate change, and global equity. His decision, an unusual move for a U.S. Secretary of State, risks sidelining Washington from key discussions among the world's most influential economies. Rubio’s stance aligns with President Donald Trump’s criticism of South Africa’s land reform efforts, which aim to address the country’s historical racial wealth inequality. Trump recently threatened to cut off U.S. funding to South Africa, and his ally, Elon Musk, has promoted the debunked claim that White farmers face genocide in the country. Pretoria has denied any land confiscations, arguing that its new Expropriation Act is similar to eminent domain laws in other countries and is necessary to correct past injustices. Relations between the U.S. and South Africa have become increasingly strained, especially as some U.S. lawmakers call for a review of trade ties due to South Africa’s growing relationship with China and neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. South Africa will host a G20 foreign ministers’ meeting this month and a leaders’ summit in November, before handing over the presidency to the U.S. Bloomberg Reuters Al Jazeera Fox News  

What’s in the cards for ECOWAS, following the exit of 3 junta-ruled nations? West Africa’s regional bloc, ECOWAS, is dealing with a major crisis after Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso officially withdrew, forming their own alliance and weakening the bloc’s influence. The departure, announced in January 2024, followed a year of diplomatic efforts to persuade them to stay. This is the first withdrawal of its kind in ECOWAS’s 50-year history, raising concerns about further instability in the region. ECOWAS, established in 1975, has played a key role in economic integration, political stability, and security cooperation among its members, though critics argue that the bloc serves the interests of political elites rather than ordinary citizens. Tensions between ECOWAS and the three junta-led nations worsened after the bloc imposed harsh sanctions on Niger in response to its military coup. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso condemned the measures as "inhumane," accused ECOWAS of abandoning its original pan-African mission, established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), and severed military ties with Western allies, including the U.S. and France. The weakening of ECOWAS raises fears that the bloc will struggle to contain security threats in the region, especially as conflicts spread from the Sahel to coastal West African nations. Economic challenges are also expected, as the three departing nations—among the region’s poorest—may face reduced investment and economic uncertainty. Associated Press  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Google AI ethical policy drops ban on weapons, surveillance applications. In an update of its ethical guidelines for AI, Google on Tuesday removed a pledge that the company would not use the technology for weapons or surveillance applications. Google AI executives Demis Hassabis and James Manyika explained in a blog post that with the rapid development of AI worldwide, companies need to respond to the needs of government and national security clients.  Elaborating on this point, the executives wrote “we believe that companies, governments, and organizations sharing (democratic) values should work together to create AI that protects people, promotes global growth, and supports national security.”  The updated Google policy on AI states that the company will ensure its technology abides by “principles of international law and human rights.”  Michael Horowitz, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said that “Google’s announcement is more evidence that the relationship between the U.S. technology sector and [Defense Department] continues to get closer, including leading AI companies.”  According to Wired, interviews with Google employees reflect their concern about the policy changes.  “It's deeply concerning,” Parul Koul, a Google software engineer, said, “to see Google drop its commitment to the ethical use of AI technology without input from its employees or the broader public.” Washington Post Wired CNN CNBC   Cybernews

Treasury says DOGE review limited to ‘read-only’ access to federal payments system. The Treasury Department, in a written response to an inquiry by Sen. Ron Wyden, said the assessment of the department’s payment system being carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is limited to “read-only” access.  According to Treasury, the review being conducted by DOGE “expert/consultant” Tom Krause, the CEO of Cloud Software Group, Inc., “is similar to the kind of access that Treasury provides to individuals reviewing Treasury systems, such as auditors, and that follows practices associated with protecting the integrity of the systems and business processes.”  The Treasury response to Wyden goes on to state the department is “committed to safeguarding the integrity and security of the system, given the implications of any compromise or disruption to the U.S. economy.”  Sen. Wyden commented on the Treasury letter, saying ““I’m sure the Treasury secretary and the president want to save face and downplay the risks as Elon Musk seized power, but nothing they’re saying is believable or trustworthy.”  The Record   Wall Street Journal   Wired

Ukraine continues innovations in weaponized drone attacks, tactics.  The spirit of innovation matching technology to tactical needs that has characterized Ukraine’s development of multidomain drones is continuing.  Ars Technica notes in a new article that Ukraine’s use of “mothership” drone platforms has progressed from transporting smaller drones to the battlefield to the use of host platforms to launch direct attacks on Russian surveillance drones.  The article sums up the new use: “Drones launching drones to attack other drones—welcome to war in 2025.”  Ukraine also has managed to stabilize drones carrying shotguns and assault rifles to make them effective attack vehicles against other drones and ground targets.  Terrestrial drones are now carrying grenade launchers into battle.  A small-track drone, the Burya, can carry up to 64 grenades and with the aid of fire-control software fire its ordnance up to 100 meters.  The Burya is in mass production with a follow-on system in development that can use links to overhead reconnaissance drones to guide attacks against targets.  These advances in some circumstances have led to machine-only assaults on Russian targets.  According to Ars Technica, last December “the Khartia brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard attacked Russian positions using only a mix of machine gun ground drones, aerial attack drones, and mine-laying/clearing drones.”  Ars Technica

Google releases new ‘flagship’ AI model for coding, complex prompt tasks.  Google launched a series of new AI models on Wednesday, including its “flagship,” Gemini 2.0 Pro Experimental, which reportedly specializes in coding and handling complex prompts.  Google also released its “reasoning” model, Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking along with a more cost-efficient AI model, Gemini 2.0 Flash-Lite.  The experimental version of the Gemini 2.0 Pro model will be available in its AI development platforms, Vertex AI and Google AI Studio, and also to subscribers to Gemini Advanced in the Gemini app.  The Pro model, according to Google, features “better understanding and reasoning of world knowledge” than its predecessors.  Gemini 2.0 Pro can activate tools like Google Search and execute code.  TechCrunch   Reuters

Alphabet CEO says AI capital expenditures will reach $58 billion in 2025. Alphabet/Google has announced plans to invest $75 billion for AI buildouts in 2025, exceeding Wall Street analysts’ expectations of capital expenditure of about $58 billion.  Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai told a conference call with analysts that "the cost of actually using (AI) is going to keep coming down, which will make more use cases feasible.  The opportunity space is as big as it comes, and that's why you're seeing us invest to meet that moment."  Also speaking on the conference call, Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi said the majority of capex for 2025 would go into building servers and data centers.  Dave Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, which holds Alphabet stock, said "DeepSeek has started to teach the market that maybe some things can be done a little bit more efficiently.  Maybe we're starting to see the market dislike the continued increase in capex."  According to a source, earlier gains by Google Cloud had offset concerns around increased spending.  However, in the fourth quarter of 2024, Google's cloud business posted a 30 percent rise in revenue to $11.96 billion, a decline from the 35 percent increase in the September quarter.  Reuters   TechCrunch

South Korean government, private groups impose limits on DeepSeek use. The South Korean industry ministry has issued a temporary ban on employee use of the DeepSeek AI model based on security concern. Other South Korean entities, such as the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power company and the foreign ministry have implemented curbs on use of DeepSeek services.  Meanwhile, the South Korean privacy watchdog is requesting DeepSeek explanations on how users’ personal information is managed.  Kakao, a South Korean tech giant, has instructed employees to refrain from using DeepSeek due to security fears.  In India, the Finance Ministry has directed staff to avoid use of DeepSeek and other generative AI tools in conducting official business on the grounds that the applications may pose risks for government documents and data. Reuters   Semafor

Technology Review profiles four Chinese AI startups sharing spotlight with DeepSeek. The MIT Technology Review is out with an article on four Chinese AI startups that merit attention as competitors to the high-flying DeepSeek firm.  Within China, AI is still dominated by Alibaba and ByteDance, but smaller innovators are beginning to stake a claim in the highly contested sector.  A group of startups dubbed the “Six Tigers” — Stepfun, Zhipu, Minimax, Moonshot, 01.AI, and Baichuan – are in the forefront of the AI race, with gains being made by research-oriented firms like DeepSeek and ModelBest. In this crowded field, the Technology Review has singled out four of the Six Tigers as “the ones to watch.”  Stepfun, which is backed by Tencent and the Shanghai government, has a strong portfolio of to its portfolio of foundational models and maintains its commitment to artificial general intelligence (AGI), which many Chinese firms have abandoned.  The company released 11 foundational models in 2024 with its largest model, Step-2, ranking only behind ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Claude, and Gemini by the LiveBench benchmark.  ModelBest was created by researchers at a leading Chinese university,, Tsinghua, in 2022 and has specialized in the small language model field.  ModelBest’s MiniCPM series focuses on on-device, real-time processing for smartphones, PC’s, smart home devices, and robots.  Its newest model, MiniCPM 3.0, matches the performance of GPT-3.5 even though it boasts only 4 billion parameters.  Another product of Tsinghua University, Zhipu, develops foundational models and AI products such as conversational models and video generators.  The U.S. last month added Zhipu AI subsidiaries to its Entity List for its reported contributions to the Chinese military, which Zhipu denies. The company’s GLM-4-Plus LLM is competitive with ChatGPT-4 while another of its products, GLM-4V-Pluse offers vision capabilities that interpret web pages and videos.  The fourth startup identified by MIT is Infinigence, which differs from the others in that it focuses on infrastructure rather than model development.  Infinigence’s status as a firm to watch stems from its work in combining chips from a wide variety of brands to execute AI tests, which is especially important in light of U.S. chip export controls.  In addition, Infinigence AI offers its Infini-AI cloud platform, which is used to develop and deploy models from combinations of multiple vendor products.  MIT Technology Review

Navy sees increasing use of intelligent, hybrid defense systems for fleet operations.  RADM Milton Sands, the commander of the U.S. Navy Special Warfare Command, remarked during the recent Surface Navy Association conference that the armed service must “embrace the robots” with the advent of machine-on-machine combat that removes human beings further from direct conflict.  It was observed during the conference that the characteristics of future war will be “mechanical, intelligent, overwhelming.”  One innovation the Navy welcomes is the MQ-25 Stingray, an unmanned tanker developed by Boeing.  With the first Stingray control room installed last August aboard the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier, VADM Daniel Cheever, commander of Naval Air Forces, projected that "we will fly that platform in '25, get that thing on the carrier in '26 and start integrating that thing.  That unlocks the future of manned-unmanned teaming."  Other developments in both unmanned and hybrid systems include the integration of L3Harris Technologies’ Vampire weapon on vessels in preparation for live-fire trials in April.  Meanwhile, maritime autonomy in the form of the combat boat Enforcer 3 is under development by Saab, in collaboration with Microsoft, Hidden Level, and Second Front.  TJ Rowe, Second Front’s chief revenue officer, said during a tour of the ship that "we need an ability to push software capabilities to the edge, whether that is a maritime platform or airborne platform."  Summing up these and other developments, Adm. Stephen Koehler, commander of the Pacific Fleet, said the Navy is already "laying the keel for the hybrid fleet."  Axios

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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