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Thursday, February 23, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Considering Releasing Intelligence on Potential Chinese Arms Transfers to Russia.  US officials say the Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence showing that China is deliberating whether to give Russia weapons to support its invasion of Ukraine.  If China moves to send lethal military aid to Moscow, it will be a significant departure from its transfers of dual-use goods and past ambiguity on its support of Russia. Discussions over the disclosure of the intelligence come after Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly warned China’s top diplomat Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference that Beijing should not send arms to Moscow.  The Chinese government has not confirmed or denied whether it will send lethal support to Russia.  (Ed. Note - If the Biden administration decides to publicly release the intelligence, it will be in line with its public disclosures of an unprecedented amount of declassified intelligence about Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.)  Wall Street Journal

Biden Condemns Russia’s Withdrawal from New START, Backs Eastern European Allies.  President Joe Biden criticized Russia’s decision to end participation in the New START Treaty, calling it a “big mistake.”  Biden’s comments on the deal, which was the last arms control agreement between the US and Russia, came at a meeting with Eastern European NATO allies in Poland.  Biden reiterated the US commitment to defend NATO allies, adding that fellow Eastern European members in the alliance are the “front line of our collective defense.”  Associated Press BBC New York Times

Biden Administration to Apply Stricter Human Rights Requirements to Arms Transfers.  State Department officials told Reuters that the Biden administration is announcing a reform of the Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) policy which will bring an overhaul to US arms export policy with a focus on human rights.  Officials say that the policy will restrict arms transfers if weapons will “more likely than not” will be used for human rights violations like genocide and crimes against humanity.  Previous CAT policy would only block transfers if the US had “actual knowledge” of the weapons being used for such abuses.  Reuters

Canada’s Trudeau Raises Election Interference Threat.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned on Wednesday that Canadians must be on guard against foreign interference in elections.  He said the threat comes from countries like China and Russia and seeks to destabilize democracies through misinformation and disinformation campaigns.  His warning came after a media report that said Canadian intelligence found that China sought to influence the 2021 election in an effort to have candidates less hostile towards Beijing enter office.  Reuters

Canada Says Stopped Chinese Surveillance in Arctic.  The Canadian defense ministry said Wednesday that it tracked and thwarted attempts by China to conduct air and maritime surveillance in the Arctic last year.  The ministry added that the Canadian military “is fully aware” of Chinese surveillance in Canadian territory and that Beijing uses “dual-purpose technologies” for surveillance operations.  The ministry’s announcement came after a media report that said Canadian Armed Forces found Chinese monitoring buoys in the Arctic last year.  BBC CBC South China Morning Post 

Mexico Passes Electoral Overhaul that Concerns Critics.  On Wednesday, Mexico’s Senate approved a controversial overhaul of Mexico’s election system in a move that critics say will undercut democracy.  The measure will cut the budget of the National Electoral Institute (INE) to save funds and lessen the influence of economic interests in politics.  Opponents of the bill say the move will degrade an institution that has played a key role in maintaining Mexico’s multi-party democracy.  Groups against the bill said that they plan to challenge it in the Supreme Court, and protests are being planned in multiple cities throughout the country.  The bill still needs to be approved by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who reportedly backs the measure.  France 24 Reuters

Western Europe

EU Commission Staff Ordered to Take TikTok Off Phones.  The European Commission on Thursday banned its staff from using TikTok, citing security concerns.  Commission staff must also remove the app from personal devices that have work-related apps installed.  The Commission said this is the first time it has restricted the use of an app for its staff.  Other EU institutions, like the Council and Parliament, are expected to implement similar bans on TikTok as well.  TikTok criticized the Commission’s ban as “misguided” and maintains that it protects European users’ data.  The development underscores growing concerns in Europe and the US over security risks from the Chinese social media platform.  Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal

Central and Eastern Europe

China’s Top Diplomat Visits Moscow.  China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday.  Putin said the relationship between Russia and China is reaching “new frontiers,” highlighting deepening economic ties by citing increasing bilateral trade.  He added that both countries support “multipolarity” over perceived US dominance in international relations.  Putin also indicated that he invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia.  Wang’s visit underscored US concerns about growing cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, especially as the US says it has intelligence that China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.  Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters

Former Russian President Warns Russia Will ‘Disappear’ if it Loses in Ukraine.  Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said that Russia will “disappear” and “be torn to pieces” if it loses in the Ukraine war.  In a Telegram post, he said the US is seeking to have Russia suffer a “strategic defeat” and that the Ukraine war would end if the US stopped providing weapons to Kyiv.  Medvedev also commented on Russia suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty, saying it was “an overdue and inevitable decision” and that Moscow has the right to defend itself by all necessary means against US aggression.  CNN

Wagner Chief Publishes Photos of Dead Mercenaries, Blames Russian Defense Ministry.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, published photos that showed the bodies of dozens of his fighters which he said the Russian defense ministry failed to provide ammunition to.  In recent days, Prigozhin has accused the ministry of deliberately keeping munitions from Wagner in a bid to destroy the group.  Prigozhin said his mercenary group had been reduced to begging military warehouses for ammunition.  The defense ministry has denied such accusations calling them “completely untrue” and is warning against attempts to form divisions that it says will solely benefit “the enemy.”  Newsweek Reuters

Russia Denies Plan to Test Hypersonic Missiles in South Africa Drills.  The Russian military denied Wednesday that it is planning to test its Zircon hypersonic missile off the coast of South Africa this week during joint drills with China and South Africa’s navies.  Speculation over a potential test comes after news that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which is armed with the hypersonic missiles, is participating in the exercises.  Russian military sources say while the Admiral Gorshkov had been sent on a trans-ocean mission to show strength against the West, it will focus on maritime security at the drills.  Associated Press

Russian Officials Say Will Still Observe New START Treaty Rules Despite Withdrawal.  A top Russian defense ministry official, Major-General Yevgeny Ilyin, told Russia’s parliament that Moscow will continue to observe elements of the New START Treaty, even though Russia is suspending participation in the arms control agreement.  Ilyin said Russia will continue to observe restrictions on deployed nuclear warheads and nuclear delivery systems like missiles and strategic bombers.  He also said that Moscow will continue notifying the US of nuclear deployments to avoid “false alarms.”  The reassurance suggests that the withdrawal will not have an immediate practical impact on Russia’s nuclear arms, though there is still long-term concern.  NBC News Reuters

Putin Pledges Boost to Russian Military.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday announced plans to increase Russian nuclear and conventional forces.  He first said Russia will deploy its new SARMAT intercontinental ballistic missiles this year.  The missile, nicknamed the “Satan II”, can reportedly deliver multiple warheads.  Putin also said Russia will continue mass production of its Kinzhal ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic missiles.  Ukraine and Western allies have largely dismissed this nuclear and military posturing as rhetoric to steer attention away from Moscow’s failure to achieve its war goals in Ukraine.  Reuters

Moldova Dismisses Russian Accusations of Ukrainian Plan to Invade Breakaway Region.  Moldova on Thursday dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defense ministry claiming that Ukraine is planning to invade Moldova’s Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria.  Russian state media said Ukraine is planning a false flag operation that would stage a purported attack by Russian forces stationed in Transnistria, which would then be used as a pretext for a Ukrainian invasion of Moldova. The Moldovan government said it does not confirm such claims and that Moldovan citizens should only believe information from credible sources.  Al Jazeera CNBC Reuters

Asia

Taiwan to Bolster Defenses.  The South China Morning Post is out with a report on how Taiwan is working to boost its own defenses in response to the Ukraine war.  Observers say while there are notable differences between the Ukraine war and what conflict would look like in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei has much to learn from Kyiv to ensure it can defend itself if China takes military action against the island.  Lessons include the need for military reform, the importance of asymmetric warfare capabilities, the need to strengthen unity and morale in both the military and the public, and the need to build strong relationships with partners and allies.  Analysts note that China will also be looking closely at the Ukraine war to learn from Russia’s mistakes.  South China Morning Post

Pacific Island Leaders Meet in Fiji.  Pacific island leaders are meeting in Fiji for a gathering of the Pacific Island Forum.  The meeting will formalize the return of Kiribati to the regional bloc.  Officials say the Pacific island countries will focus on China’s influence in the region, climate change, and Japan’s plan to release treated water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israel Conducts Air Strikes on Gaza After Palestine Rocketfire.  Israeli fighter jets carried out air strikes on Gaza on Thursday.  The Israeli military said the attacks targeted a weapons manufacturing site owned by Hamas.  The bombings came after Israel reported that militants in Gaza fired six rockets into southern Israel.  Officials say five of the rockets were intercepted by missile defenses while the last rocket landed in an open area.  The flare-up in cross-border violence comes after a deadly raid by Israel on the West Bank city of Nablus which killed 10 Palestinians and injured over 100.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Nigeria Senate Candidate Killed Ahead of Elections.  Unknown gunmen killed a senatorial candidate from Nigeria’s opposition Labour Party on Wednesday. The killing is the latest violence ahead of a key presidential and legislative election on Saturday as incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is stepping down after serving the maximum two terms in office.  The US has called for a peaceful and transparent election in Africa’s largest democracy, urging all parties in Nigeria to accept results announced by the electoral commission.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

Sensitive US Military Emails Leaked Via Exposed Server.  Security researcher Anurag Sen reportedly found this weekend that sensitive US military emails have been exposed to the open internet through an exposed server for two weeks.  Sen said the exposed server, which is hosted on Microsoft’s Azure government cloud for Department of Defense clients, was found during a routine check of open databases with information important to national security.  Sen says a misconfiguration issue likely linked to a human-made error caused a misconfiguration which allowed anyone who knew the needed IP address to access a mailbox on the server that stored the sensitive emails.  The Pentagon says it has secured the server and is conducting a review of the exposure.  The incident highlights security risks with the migration of data over to cloud services.  DefenseScoop The Hill Tech Crunch

Physical Attacks on US Electrical Infrastructure On the Rise.  The Wall Street Journal is reporting on a confidential analysis from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation which says physical attacks on US power grid sites rose 71 percent from 2021.  The analysis also found that physical security incidents involving power outages increased by 20 percent since 2020.  According to the analysis, attacks came in the form of ballistic damage, intrusion and vandalism.  Officials say the attacks, going back to the 2020 presidential election, will likely continue to increase due to tensions from social unrest and economic challenges.  Authorities added that extremist groups are increasingly targeting electric and other critical infrastructure.  Wall Street Journal

LockBit Take Credit for Attack on Portugal Water Utility.  The LockBit ransomware group has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack in early February on the water utility of the Portuguese city of Porto.  LockBit has given the utility until March 7 to pay ransom, or the hacking group will publish stolen information from the utility’s systems.  The water utility said its security team minimized the damage of the attack and that its water and sanitation operations were not affected in the hack.  The Record 

Pro-Russia Twitter Accounts Buying Blue-Check Verifications to Amplify Content.  The Washington Post is out with a report on how pro-Russian Twitter accounts pushing Kremlin propaganda are taking advantage of Twitter’s paid “blue-check” verification system to boost their content on the platform.  The research group Reset told The Washington Post that most of the propaganda accounts they identified were created in the last year at the start of the Ukraine war and aim to counter content critical of Moscow since its invasion.  Reset said the blue-checks on these accounts show the major danger of allowing anonymous accounts to buy verification to promote their content.  The research group added that abuses of the new verification system show that Twitter under Elon Musk is accelerating politically charged misinformation.  Washington Post

Ransomware Payments Falling Over Stronger Counter Measures Against Attacks.  Federal officials, cybersecurity groups and blockchain firms report that extortion payments from ransomware fell significantly in 2022.  Both the amount of money paid to ransomware criminals and the likelihood that ransomware victims would pay those who hacked them dropped during this time.  Mandiant cybersecurity group said it responded to 15 percent less ransomware intrusions in 2022 from 2021, cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike said average ransom-demand amounts dropped from $5.7 million in 2021 to $4.1 million in 2022, and blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said extortion payments it tracked dropped by 40 percent last year.  Analysts say that these figures show stronger security practices, victim support and offensive actions against ransomware gangs are working to lessen the severity of ransomware attacks.  Experts caution that despite this progress, cyber threat actors are still active and will adapt to ensure they can still carry out profitable attacks.  Wall Street Journal

Former Samsung Employees Sentenced to Prison for Leaking Chip Technology to China.  A South Korean court sentenced seven former employees of a Samsung Electronics Co subsidiary to prison for the crimes of illegally acquiring and leaking proprietary technologies related to semiconductor cleaning equipment to Chinese companies.  The court ruling said the ex-employees sent blueprints and cleaning machines collectively worth $59.8 million to competing Chinese firms and a Chinese research institute.  Some of the information involved technologies covered by South Korea’s laws protecting “national core technologies.”  The court case comes amid heightened tensions over chips as the US seeks to hobble China’s semiconductor industry as part of escalating economic competition.  Wall Street Journal

Civil Liberties Groups Urge EU Ban on Spyware.  A coalition of civil liberties and human rights groups in Europe are calling for a European parliamentary inquiry into spyware in the EU.  The European Digital Rights (EDRi) association says a ban is needed to avoid spyware abuses as attempts to reform governance systems on spyware will not be effective.  The European Council is currently debating legislation meant to protect journalists from spyware, but it is not considering other measures.  The Record

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