Report for Thursday, February 22, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel presses ahead with Rafah plan amid international pressure for ceasefire

House China panel chair Gallagher, in Taiwan, says U.S. support is “rock-solid.

ANALYSIS - Killing of Russian defector in Spain points to Putin’s sense of impunity.

Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles

AT&T customers report a massive outage, disrupting phone service across America

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+ REPORTING — As U.S. Debates Military Aid, Ukraine Scrambles for a ‘Plan B.’

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli airstrike kills at least two people in Damascus.  An Israeli missile strike in Damascus killed at least two people on Wednesday. The missiles hit a residential building in the Kafr Sousa district of the Syrian capital. Syrian state media said the attack killed two civilians and cited a security source who said the “attack did not achieve its aims.” The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the attack killed two non-Syrian nationals and a Syrian civilian. The monitoring group added that the strike hit an area frequented by senior figures from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hezbollah. Iranian media said no Iranian citizens were killed in the attack. The Israeli military did not comment on the incident. Israel has stepped up strikes in Lebanon and Syria against Iran-backed groups that say they are acting in support of Hamas. Last month, a strike in Damascus blamed on Israel killed five IRGC “military advisors” and Syrian security personnel. A past Israeli attack on the Kafr Sousa district in February 2023 targeted warehouses used by the IRGC and Hezbollah.  Reuters BBC Al Jazeera New York Times 

Israel presses ahead with Rafah plan amid international pressure for ceasefire.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Bloomberg that he has ordered the Israeli military to prepare a plan to evacuate the million or more civilians in Rafah before the expansion of Israel’s ground offensive into the city. He said Israel will present the plan “in the near future.” His comment signals that Israel is set to enter Rafah with the goal of dismantling Hamas leadership and rescuing remaining hostages. THe U.S. and other allies have called for a ceasefire, but Israel says it cannot agree to the conditions laid out by Hamas for the release of hostages and pause to fighting. The White House and Arab states are continuing efforts for a ceasefire  White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk is meeting Israeli officials following talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo on a possible deal. CIA Director William Burns is also expected to meet senior Middle East leaders for negotiations in Paris in the coming days, sources say. The U.K. is reportedly considering restricting some arms exports to Israel if it launches its offensive into Rafah or blocks aid trucks from entering Gaza. While Britain is not a major arms supplier to Israel, the potential action suggests heightened Western pressure on Netanyahu’s government.  Bloomberg Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times Associated Press Associated Press

Israel intercepts target near Eilat.  Israel’s military said it intercepted a projectile over the Red Sea that triggered sirens in the southern city of Eilat. The Israeli military said the target did not enter Israeli territory and was intercepted by Israel’s Arrow missile defense system. The Houthis did not immediately claim an attack, though the group has previously launched missiles and drones at Eilat in what it describes as solidarity with Palestinians amid the Gaza war.   Jerusalem Post  Reuters Times of Israel Associated Press

Shooting at Jerusalem checkpoint kills one.  Three Palestinian gunmen opened fire at motorists near an Israeli checkpoint between Jerusalem and the Maale Adumim settlement in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, killing one person and injuring at least eight others. Israeli police said two of the gunmen were killed by security forces and the third was arrested. In response to the attack, far-right Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir said freedom of movement for Palestinains should be restricted. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich added that Israel should respond to the attack by approving plans for new Israeli settlements in and around Maale Adumim. Hamas said the attack was a “natural response” to Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank.  Al Jazeera Times of Israel

U.S. finds claims that UNRWA staff took part in Hamas attack ‘credible’.  A new U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that some employees of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), responsible for distributing aid to Palestinians, likely participated in Hamas's Oct. 7 assault on Israel. However, the assessment is more measured in comparison to Israeli claims that a larger number of UNRWA workers have links to militant groups. Israel alleges that 10% of all UNRWA employees have affiliations, usually political, with Hamas, while a smaller number have ties to the militant wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. According to the assessment, the U.S.’s National Intelligence Council has "low confidence" that a handful of UNRWA staffers participated in the Oct. 7 attack, indicating that the group believes the claim is “credible” but lacks its own independent confirmation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had previously said the Israeli claims are “highly, highly credible” but also emphasized UNRWA’s critical role in getting humanitarian aid into Gaza. The U.N. has launched its own investigation into the claims, and UNRWA fired employees allegedly involved in the attack. The agency's future is uncertain as most donors suspended funding after the Israeli claims, raising concerns amid the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The U.S. has backed the U.N.'s investigation and an independent review to ensure UNRWA's neutrality.  Wall Street Journal 

Israeli military investigating soldiers for criminal offenses in Gaza. Israel's top military lawyer, Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi, announced that some troops fighting in Gaza are under investigation for criminal offenses and misconduct, including destruction of property, looting, abuse of prisoners, and excessive use of force. Yerushalmi stated that some incidents "cross over the criminal threshold," and decisions on disciplinary action will be made after investigations are complete. The announcement follows international criticism of civilian casualties and property destruction during Israel's military operations in Gaza. Yerushalmi emphasized the isolated nature of the incidents and called for serious disciplinary measures. Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi also issued a letter reminding commanders to prevent misconduct and uphold the laws of war.  Wall Street Journal

UN staff report Israeli siege has turned Gazan Nasser Hospital into ‘a place of death’. United Nations officials conducting evacuation missions from Gaza's Nasser Hospital have decried the "appalling" conditions within, describing it as transformed from a "place of healing" to a "place of death" due to an Israeli military operation. The hospital, besieged and raided last week, ceased functioning, leaving patients and staff trapped without essentials like food, water, and electricity. Despite evacuating critical patients, including children and those with paralysis, concerns persist for those remaining, with reports of dead bodies in corridors, impassable roads, and lack of basic supplies. Palestinian health authorities report deaths due to oxygen and fuel shortages, accusing Israeli forces of converting the site into military barracks. The WHO highlighted the dire situation, emphasizing the urgent need for restoration of hospital functions. Al Jazeera 

ANALYSIS – 85,000 Gazans could die from war injuries and illness over the next 6 months. Researchers from Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Medicine project that if the Gaza war escalates, as many as 85,000 Palestinians could  die from war-related injuries and disease over the next six months. If the level of fighting or humanitarian aid stays about the same, the estimate drops to 58,260 deaths.  But if cholera or some other infectious disease breaks out, the number of deaths would rise to 66,720. All these numbers would be added to the estimated 29,000 Palestinians already killed during the conflict.   New York Times 

ANALYSIS — Why isn’t desperately needed humanitarian aid reaching Gaza?  The humanitarian aid deliveries in the Gaza Strip have significantly slowed due to various factors, including security deterioration, Israeli military strikes on convoys, violent attacks on aid trucks by desperate Palestinians, and Israeli restrictions on aid flow into northern Gaza. The U.N.'s World Food Program temporarily suspended aid deliveries to northern Gaza after trucks were looted by hungry Palestinians. Israel's constraints on aid missions have exacerbated the crisis, with only a fraction of the usual number of trucks reaching Gaza daily. U.S. officials, including President Biden's adviser Brett McGurk, are working with Israel to address the issue, while Israeli officials are considering alternative methods of aid transfer to ensure it reaches civilians and not Hamas. Associated Press Wall Street Journal 

Russia argues Israel must cease all settlement activities.  Several states participating in hearings at the International Court of Justice called on Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories, though the court has not been asked to issue an opinion on the matter.  Russia’s ambassador to the Netherlands, Vladimir Tarabrin, joined the call, saying that Israel should “stop all settlement activities in the occupied territory” and follow U.N. Security Council solutions aimed at achieving a two-state solution.  The U.S. said the court should not order the unconditional withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestinian territories, with Richard Visek, acting legal advisor at the U.S. State Department, saying that any pullout from Gaza and the West Bank “requires consideration for Israel’s very real security needs.”  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Turkey calls for Gaza ceasefire, two-state solution at G20 meeting. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan urged the international community to push for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and pursue a two-state solution to the conflict during discussions at the G20 meeting in Brazil. Turkey, critical of Israel's actions in Gaza, emphasized the need to halt the violence and increase aid to the region. Fidan held talks with counterparts from the United States, Germany, and Egypt, discussing concrete steps to achieve a ceasefire. He also highlighted the necessity for reform within the U.N. Security Council to ensure more inclusive decision-making. Additionally, Fidan praised Brazilian President Lula's stance on the Gaza conflict, which likened it to the Nazi genocide during World War Two.  Reuters Times of Israel

Sexual assault, rape took place during Hamas attack, Israeli association says. The Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel released a report revealing evidence of systematic and intentional rape and sexual abuse during the Hamas attack on October 7 that triggered the Gaza war. The assaults were more widespread than previously understood, occurring at various locations across southern Israel, sometimes in front of witnesses to increase humiliation. The report noted severe mutilation of victims' bodies and genitals, and although it did not specify the number of cases or identify victims, it relied on interviews with officials, first responders, and media reports. The findings were submitted to the United Nations for investigation. Associated Press 

United Airlines says after a ‘detailed safety analysis’ it will restart flights to Israel in March.  United Airlines plans to restart flights to Israel next month, with routes from Newark, New Jersey, to Tel Aviv via Munich on March 2 and March 4. Daily service is expected to begin on March 6, with a potential second daily flight by May. Other airlines like American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have not announced plans to resume Tel Aviv flights since suspending them during the Israel-Hamas war, while Lufthansa and Air France have already restarted services. United conducted safety analyses and consulted security experts and government officials before making the decision. The airline will also assess resuming flights from San Francisco, Chicago, and Dulles airport this fall. Associated Press

THE RED SEA

Ship abandoned in Red Sea faces unknown fate, sources say.   The Belize-flagged Rubymar cargo ship, abandoned Sunday in the Gulf of Aden after it was hit by missiles fired by Yemen's Houthis, is still floating despite taking in water.  It could be towed to nearby Djibouti, industry sources said Wednesday.  The crew was rescued by another commercial ship. The Rubymar’s UK registered company and Lebanese based ship manager could not be located for further comment on Wednesday. Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+ REPORTING — As U.S. Debates Military Aid, Ukraine Scrambles for a ‘Plan B.’  As Russian forces seized control of Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops faced a dire dilemma: whether to use their dwindling ammunition to defend against the onslaught or conserve it for future battles. The loss of Avdiivka highlights Ukraine's struggle to maintain its artillery supply, a challenge compounded by uncertainty over continued U.S. military aid. While National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed confidence in ongoing aid delivery, Ukrainians are considering contingency plans, including domestic weapon production and support from European allies. Without U.S. aid, experts warn of a potential Russian victory, stressing the critical role of American support in bolstering Ukraine's defenses against advancing Russian forces. The impact of the aid debate on Ukraine's military capabilities remains uncertain, with concerns focusing on shortages of long-range missiles, air defenses, and artillery shells.  The Cipher Brief

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+ REPORTING — Can Drones Help Ukraine Turn the Tide of War?  Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to the Black Sea successes in announcing the creation of a drone-centric military branch, the Unmanned Systems Forces, along with a goal of producing more than one million Ukrainian drones in 2024.  Can it help Ukraine turn the tide of war?  The Cipher Brief

At least 60 Russian troops reportedly killed by missile strikes in occupied eastern Ukraine. The BBC reported that troops had assembled in a training area in the Donetsk region to await the arrival of a senior commander when they were struck by two missiles fired from the US-made HIMARS launch system. BBC viewed video footage that showed large numbers of dead. A Russian official dismissed casualty reports as "grossly exaggerated” but did not deny the HIMARS strike. BBC  

Ukraine downs 8 drones overnight.  Ukraine’s Air Force said Ukrainian air defenses destroyed eight of 10 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. The drones were launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia. One Kh-31P supersonic anti-radiation missile was also launched from the Black Sea. The drones were intercepted over Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with no reported casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure.  Kyiv Independent 

Russians target Robotyne in southern Ukraine.  Russian troops have launched multiple attacks around the southern Ukrainian village of Robotyne, trying to seize land hard-won by Ukraine during last summer’s counteroffensive. The Ukrainian Army said it had repelled assaults for the past four days. Russia has made marginal gains to the west and south of Robotyne. The Institute for the Study of War, said Monday that Russian forces had advanced to the edge of Robotyne. “Pay attention to the village of Robotyne,” Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for Ukrainian forces said last week. “It seems that the Russians have set a goal of achieving some success there,” so they planned to try to seize the village, he said. New York Times U.K. Defense Ministry X

Zelensky downplays loss of Avdiivka, seeks faster support.  In a broadcast yesterday, to be aired on Fox News today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to put the loss of the town of Avdivka to Russian forces in perspective, pointing to earlier Ukrainian gains, particularly in the northeastern Kharkiv region. He also said Ukrainian forces had opened the Black Sea for grain shipments and destroyed a number of Russian ships. Zelensky criticized the slowdown of Western aid, particularly from the U.S., saying that if assistance is not speeded up, “we will not have any chance.” He said finding an alternative to U.S. aid would not be easy, but that Kyiv has to find “some parallel steps” to find support. Reuters

Zelensky to hold conference with military, political leadership on ‘Ukraine’s future path’.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is planning a conference on February 25 with military and political leaders to discuss the country's future as it enters the third year of the full-scale invasion by Russia. The conference, described as "an honest conversation about Ukraine's future path in 2024," will involve key figures such as Ukraine’s prime minister, parliament speaker, and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and the chief of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence. Topics to be addressed include the development of the army, integration with EU and NATO, security guarantees, and business support. Zelensky will hold a press conference afterward to address key questions. The last major press conference by President Zelensky was in late December 2023.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine considers unpopular plan to expand draft to bolster forces.  As the Ukraine war continues, the spirit to enlist among Ukrainian men has waned. Many are avoiding the draft by hiding or attempting to bribe their way out, leaving the Ukrainian army undersized and composed of exhausted and wounded soldiers. To address this, the Ukrainian government is contemplating legislation to increase the pool of recruits by about 400,000. The legislation includes provisions like lowering the enlistment age from 27 to 25,  tracking draft-eligible citizens electronically to reduce evasion, and freezing bank accounts and restricting travel for non-compliance. However, the proposal is unpopular and the legislation faces challenges in parliament over concerns about its impact on the outcome of the war and questions of constitutionality.  Associated Press 

Ukraine allows foreigners to serve in National Guard.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree allowing foreigners and stateless individuals to serve in the National Guard, effective immediately from February 21. The decision aims to enhance mobilization efforts in 2024. The decree specifies that foreigners legally present in Ukraine who do not have previous convictions and meet certain requirements outlined in Ukrainian law can voluntarily join the National Guard under a contract. This move follows a previous allowance for foreign citizens to serve in Ukraine's Armed Forces if they fulfill certain criteria. Zelensky had earlier called on "citizens of the world" to join Ukraine's defense, leading to the formation of the International Legion. The National Guard, operating under the Interior Ministry, is responsible for public security and has been actively involved in frontline combat.  Kyiv Independent  

Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia. As the Ukraine war enters its third year, Ukrainian troops face dwindling numbers and ammunition to fight Russian forces. Heavy casualties and dreadful conditions exacerbate the situation, with soldiers battling freezing temperatures and mud. Despite ongoing pleas for more military support, Western aid to Ukraine slows, leaving soldiers struggling against a better-equipped enemy. The drone warfare escalates, with both sides heavily investing in drone technology, altering the dynamics of the battlefield. Ukraine aims to bolster its drone production, but Russia's advancements pose significant challenges. The use of drones forces troops to adapt their tactics, while electronic warfare becomes increasingly crucial in countering drone attacks. Reuters

Russia short on ammo, weapons parts, as Western sanctions bite. It’s not only Ukraine that’s running out of ammunition.  Reuters reported Wednesday that Russia is also short, according to unnamed “Western officials.”  Russia can’t get Western components, which hampers its ability to produce new systems and fix old ones. "We do not believe Russia has a meaningful plan beyond continuing to fight in the expectation that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually tell," an official said, according to Reuters. As evidence, the experts say Russia is not making good on commitments to supply munitions to allies not involved in Moscow’s war on Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Air Force said Russia had failed to deliver promised supplies because of the Ukraine war. "Russia's domestic ammunition production capabilities are currently insufficient for meeting the needs of the Ukraine conflict," an official said.  But neither he nor other officials interviewed held out hope that shortages would persuade Moscow to change course and abandon its drive to take control of Ukraine.  Reuters   

Western sanctions having slower impact on Russia than hoped.  Two years after the start of the Ukraine war, Western sanctions have not succeeded in halting Moscow’s invasion. While the imposed financial, economic, military, and energy sanctions have damaged Russia's economy and arms-production capacity, their impact has been slower than anticipated. Russia has actively sought to evade sanctions by increasing trade with non-Western nations, using shell companies, and securing critical supplies, including Western parts, through opaque channels and third parties. Russia is also receiving military equipment and weapons from Iran, North Korea, China, and Turkey. Beijing, in particular, has become bolder in supporting Russia during the war. More widely, Russia has responded to economic challenges from sanctions by establishing a war economy, increasing its military budget, and circumventing the oil price cap with a ghost fleet of oil tankers. While some experts cast doubt on the sustainability of Russia’s economic resilience in the face of sanctions, short-term factors like rising oil prices have mitigated the impact, meaning such measures are unlikely to push Moscow to stop its ongoing war on Ukraine.  Wall Street Journal

E.U. blacklists Chinese firms for first time in latest Russia sanctions package.  The European Union is moving to blacklist Chinese companies that are supplying items with military applications to Russia.  Three mainland Chinese businesses — Guangzhou Ausay Technology Co Limited, Shenzhen Biguang Trading Co Limited and Yilufa Electronics Limited–  and RG Solutions Limited of Hong Kong will be barred from doing business with European companies because of evidence they helped Russian buyers acquire goods with both military and civilian uses that are banned for export to Russia.  EU officials are trying to finalize the action before February 24.   The latest round of sanctions lists 193 firms, including some from Turkey, Kazakhstan, North Korea and India. With these additions, the EU’s blacklist will swell to almost 2,000.   South China Morning Post Reuters   

Ukraine, IMF Near $900 million payment. Ukraine is nearing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund  for a $900 million disbursement from its $15.6 billion loan. The deal is expected to be finalized soon, and the fund’s executive board is likely to ratify it. The agreement comes amid uncertainty over delayed U.S. aid tied up in Congress. If the U.S. funding of over $60 billion doesn't materialize, the IMF funds will become a significant financial lifeline for Ukraine. The disbursement is part of a larger program for Ukraine approved in 2023 and would be the first of four that Ukraine expects this year, totaling $5.4 billion, contingent on Ukraine meeting conditions discussed with the IMF, including potential adjustments in the government's economic policies. If approved, it will mark the first time the IMF has provided a loan to a nation at war.  Bloomberg Reuters  AP 

At G20 meeting, Western ministers criticize Russia over Ukraine.  Foreign ministers from the G20 nations, meeting in Rio de Janeiro Wednesday, attacked Russia for invading Ukraine, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sat quietly. "Russia must be made to pay for its aggression," British Foreign Minister David Cameron said, according to his office. Cameron raised the death of dissident Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison.  Diplomats from the United States, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, France and Norway also lambasted Russia.  Lavrov calmly replied with "a set of alternative facts," Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told reporters.  "We have to support Ukraine until it emerges as a free and independent sovereign country without another army on its soil," the Norwegian minister said he told the meeting. Eide said there was general agreement for the need for a two-state solution in the Middle East but no consensus on how to get there. Brazil’s foreign minister Mauro Vieira opened the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro Wednesday by criticizing the United Nations and the U.N. Security Council for being powerless to head off or halt conflicts such the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war.  “Multilateral institutions are not adequately equipped to deal with current challenges, as demonstrated by the unacceptable paralysis of the Security Council in relation to ongoing conflicts,” Vieira said.  He called for reforms of the U.N. and other international bodies.   Reuters Bloomberg France 24 Associated Press 

Most Europeans believe Ukraine cannot win war, survey says.  A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found that while most Europeans support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, only 1 in 10 believe Ukraine can win. The pessimistic outlook is attributed to the uncertainty about the political situation in the U.S., where new aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress and former President Donald Trump has signaled he could withdraw support for Kyiv if re-elected. Despite concerns, 41 percent of Europeans want an increase or maintenance of current support for Ukraine.  However, only a fifth want Europe to compensate for a withdrawal of U.S. support, and a third of respondents want the E.U. to limit support. Most participants in the survey said they believe a “compromise settlement” is necessary to end the war, with the strongest calls coming from respondents from Hungary, Greece, and Italy. The survey suggests that changing the narrative around the war could be crucial to maintain European public support for Ukraine.  Politico

U.S. State Department says Putin has not gained advantage in Ukraine war.  The U.S. State Department rejects the notion that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has gained an advantage in the war against Ukraine, despite Russia capturing Avdiivka as new aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in a press briefing, highlighted the broader context of the conflict over the past two years, attributing the fall of Avdiivka to the current uncertainty about new U.S. aid. Miller emphasized Ukraine's advancements, particularly in the Black Sea region, where they repelled the Russian fleet and established a new shipping route.

Despite challenges, State Department maintains U.S. commitment to backing Ukraine, emphasizing the need for congressional support.  Amid concerns over recent Russian gains in the war against Ukraine and Congress's failure to pass a substantial aid package for Ukraine, U.S. officials maintain that Vladimir Putin has not gained the upper hand in the conflict. Despite setbacks like the capture of Avdiivka, the U.S. State Department spokesperson emphasized the need to assess the conflict's trajectory over the past two years, attributing recent Russian gains to Ukraine's inability to resupply its troops due to lack of congressional support. The Senate has approved a $95 billion funding request, including aid for Ukraine, but Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson's refusal to schedule a vote has delayed its passage. However, U.S. officials highlight Ukraine's advancements on the battlefield, particularly in the Black Sea region, and express readiness to support Ukraine pending congressional approval of foreign aid. Kyiv Independent

Insight: How life in Ukraine has been shattered by two years of war. In Lozuvatka, Ukraine, the impact of the ongoing two-year war with Russia is deeply felt, even though the village is about 100 km from the frontlines. Families mourn lost loved ones, with freshly dug graves and makeshift memorials serving as stark reminders of the conflict's toll. The war has disrupted daily life, leading to school closures and economic challenges, while the threat of attacks looms despite the village's relative distance from direct conflict zones. The war's far-reaching effects underscore the profound changes it has brought to Ukrainian society, from education to employment opportunities, leaving communities grappling with loss and uncertainty. Reuters

U.N. humanitarian appeal for Ukraine only 10% funded.  The U.N.'s humanitarian appeal for Ukraine in 2024 is only 10% funded, putting crucial assistance at risk for around 8.5 million Ukrainians living in dire conditions near combat zones. The annual appeal for Ukraine is $3.1 billion, and without adequate funding, essential support may be unsustainable. As the future of military aid to Ukraine remains uncertain, Denise Brown, the U.N.'s top representative in Ukraine, is urging the international community and the private sector to prioritize humanitarian needs. The U.N.'s aid deliveries focus on front-line areas where electricity and running water are scarce, providing essential supplies such as water and hygiene kits. Brown emphasized the importance of ongoing support amid continued fighting, which has impacted the U.N.'s access and delivery timelines in conflict zones.  Associated Press 

Columbia University Researcher Rajan Menon says ‘Putin has lost Ukraine'.  An interview with Rajan Menon, senior research scholar at the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University  Kyiv Independent

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

What the U.S. military has learned from two-year-long Ukraine war. The U.S. military, particularly at Fort Irwin in California, is reevaluating its warfighting strategies in response to the evolving landscape of conflict highlighted by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Major General Curtis Taylor emphasized the deadly impact of modern technology, such as precision weapons and digital surveillance, in warfare, drawing lessons from the conflict. The Pentagon is undertaking a comprehensive study of the Ukraine war to inform future defense strategies, recognizing the changing nature of warfare and the need for adaptation. The conflict has challenged traditional assumptions about tactics and weaponry, prompting a reevaluation of military approaches from mission planning to technology utilization.  Washington Post
Pentagon slashes weapons programs to stay under debt deal. The Pentagon plans to cut F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine, Army helicopters and drones to stay under spending caps set by the debt limit agreement reached last year by the Biden administration and congressional leaders. The Pentagon’s budget request, to go to Congress next month, is expected to be almost $850 billion for FY 2025, a $10 billion reduction, or more than 1 percent,  of the current level.  To achieve savings, the services must cut back on new weapons systems. The Navy is considering delaying its next nuclear-powered submarine, according to Politico.  The Army is likely to shelve major helicopter and drone projects. The Air Force will cut 18 percent from its budget for purchases of F-35 fighter jets.  Politico 

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — Biden has a Secret Weapon for Ukraine. Will he use it?  Former Senior CIA Intelligence Officers and Cipher Brief Experts Paul Kolbe and Glenn Corn write on the way that President Joe BIden can eliminate a key obstacle to Ukraine’s success on the battlefield while building support for Kyiv in Congress, encouraging business investment, and informing the American public about the war.  The Cipher Brief

State Department okays $75m sale of military electronics to Taiwan. The State Department has approved the sale of about $75 million of advanced tactical data link system upgrade planning to Taiwan, the Pentagon said on Wednesday. The package would include Cross Domain Solutions, High Assurance devices, Global Positioning System receivers, communications equipment, technical services and other related elements of logistics and program support. The Pentagon said the prime contractor will be determined in competitive processes.  Reuters

U.S. charges Japanese crime leader with trafficking nuclear materials from Myanmar.  U.S. prosecutors have accused Japanese crime syndicate leader Takeshi Ebisawa of conspiring to traffic nuclear material from Myanmar for expected use in Iran to make nuclear weapons. Ebisawa and his associates showed nuclear material samples transported from Myanmar to Thailand to an undercover DEA agent posing as a narcotics and weapons trafficker. The nuclear material, seized later, was found to include uranium and weapons-grade plutonium. The material reportedly came from an unidentified leader of an "ethnic insurgent group" in Myanmar. Officials say Ebisawa also sought to traffic weapons and lethal narcotics. Ebisawa is charged with international trafficking of nuclear materials, conspiracy to commit the crime, and other counts. Ebisawa and a Thai co-defendant, Somphop Singhasiri, have been ordered detained. The Associated Press has reached out to Ebisawa’s attorney for comment. Reuters Associated Press 

U.S. expands visa restrictions on transportation operators over migration. The U.S. has expanded visa restrictions for transportation operators involved in facilitating irregular migration, targeting owners, executives, and senior officials of charter flight, ground, and maritime transportation companies. The restrictions, which initially targeted individuals operating charter flights into Nicaragua for migrants heading towards the U.S.-Mexico border, now extend to transportation services primarily used by those intending to migrate irregularly to the U.S. This expansion of restrictions is part of the U.S. government's efforts to address the surging number of migrants crossing the southern U.S. border illegally. The Biden administration is also considering unilateral executive action, such as curbing asylum claims by migrants at the southern border, to stem the surge in migrants. These efforts come as the administration seeks support in Congress for new aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which House Republicans are refusing to back without border security provisions. Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg 

Third suspect in plot to kill Iranian American author on U.S. soil extradited to face charges. The Justice Department announced on Wednesday that a suspect involved in a plot to assassinate an Iranian American author and activist has been extradited from the Czech Republic to face charges. Polad Omarov, arrested in January 2023, was charged alongside two others in the alleged conspiracy against Masih Alinejad, an Iranian opposition figure known for her advocacy against the regime’s human rights violations.  The Associated Press was unable to reach Omarov’s attorney.  Associated Press 

Assange wanted for 'indiscriminately' publishing sources' names, U.S. lawyers say. The U.S. clarified on Wednesday that Julian Assange is being prosecuted for “disclosing sources' names” rather than for his political views, concluding Assange’s last-minute appeal to prevent extradition challenge from the U.K. to the U.S. The two-day appeal hearing concluded after U.S. lawyers presented their arguments, aiming to extradite 52-year-old Assange to the U.S. to answer espionage charges related to the publication of classified U.S. military documents from 14 years ago, arguing that his actions endangered lives without justification. On Wednesday, U.K. Judges Victoria Sharp and Jeremy Johnson announced that they would deliberate before reaching a verdict, with a decision on Assange's extradition not anticipated until March at the earliest.  Aljazeera Reuters

Canada summons Russian ambassador, calls for full inquiry into Navalny's death. Global Affairs Canada reported yesterday that Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly has requested a meeting with Russian Ambassador Oleg Stepanov yesterday to express Canada’s condemnation of Russia over the death of Alexei Navalny. Joly’s office said a senior government official called on Moscow to conduct a full and transparent investigation of the death and to release Navalny’s body to his family immediately. The official also expressed concern for other political prisoners in Russia and stressed the need for Russia to protect rather than punish Russian citizens who are mourning Navalny’s death. The Russian embassy responded with a social media post saying Canada should stop interfering in Russia’s internal affairs. Reuters CBC

Yellen to visit Brazil for G20 meeting, Chile for bilateral talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to participate in meetings with finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies in Sao Paulo, Brazil, followed by bilateral engagements in Santiago, Chile. Yellen's agenda includes discussions on coordination among G20 members to support Ukraine and sanction Russia, addressing the humanitarian and economic fallout in the Middle East, as well as conversations on multilateral development bank reforms, IMF strengthening, climate change mitigation, and sovereign debt management.  Reuters 

Attorney for widow of slain Haitian president rejects indictment and says it’s politically motivated. The attorney of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse’s widow, Martine Moïse, suspects political motivations behind her indictment in his assassination. U.S.-based attorney Paul Turner expressed surprise at media reports detailing the indictments against Martine Moïse and numerous other suspects, including the former prime minister and ex-police chief. Turner also raised doubts about the authenticity and finalization of the judge’s report, alleging that Haitian government officials failed to contact his client as mandated, prompting him and other lawyers to seek clarification from authorities. Turner suggests equitable conditions for cooperation, highlighting ongoing safety concerns for Martine Moïse and her children following the assassination.  Associated Press 

Ecuador government proposes $214 million increase in security spending.  Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa's government plans to boost security spending by $214 million in 2024 to combat violence attributed to drug trafficking gangs. The proposal seeks to boost the security budget to $3.52 billion.  Reuters 

Venezuela’s Maduro conveys 'great respect' for Guyana president, suggesting lessening of tensions over land dispute. Guyana’s President Nicolas Maduro expressed “great respect” for Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali, suggesting a reduction in border tensions over the region where Guyana is exploiting significant oil and gas resources. Diplomatic discussions between the two nations started in December and coincided with a Venezuelan referendum favoring the inclusion of Essequibo, the territory of contention. Maduro's meeting with Guyana's Ambassador Richard Van West-Charles in Caracas on Tuesday was confirmed in a statement from Guyana.  Reuters 

Anti-drug crusader or cartel secret weapon? Honduras ex-president's trial kicks off. The trial of former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernandez commenced in New York with prosecutors alleging that traffickers fueled his rise to power by paying him millions in bribes to assist in sending cocaine to the U.S., despite his public anti-drug stance. Defense countered that witnesses were framing him in retaliation for his crackdown on cartels. Hernandez, who pleaded not guilty, faces charges of drug trafficking conspiracy and criminal weapons possession. Defense argued that cooperating witnesses were seeking revenge or hoping for reduced sentences. Former President Donald Trump previously praised Hernandez's anti-drug efforts, but U.S. prosecutors accused him of turning Honduras into a "narco-state." Hernandez's brother, a convicted trafficker, allegedly benefited from his protection. The trial is expected to last two to three weeks, with Hernandez facing a possible life sentence if convicted on all counts.  Reuters

Slayings of tourists and Colombian women expose the dark side of Medellin’s tourism boom. The surge in tourism to Medellin, Colombia, has brought with it dark challenges, including an increase in sex trafficking and violence against tourists and local women who use dating apps to meet foreigners. Mayor Federico Gutiérrez expressed concern about the situation, noting the city's struggles with the sex trade. The recent killings of eight American men, who met local women before their deaths, prompted warnings from the U.S. Embassy in Bogota about spiked drinks and robberies. Among the victims was Tou Ger Xiong, a Minnesota activist who was tortured, robbed, and killed after a date. Authorities have also investigated the deaths of other tourists, including a Dutch visitor and three Americans, while a Colombian woman was found dead in a suitcase, allegedly killed by her Canadian ex-boyfriend whom she met on a dating app. The rise in tourism has also led to an increase in sexual exploitation, particularly among minors, and Mayor Gutiérrez acknowledged the city's efforts to address these issues, including increased police presence in areas known for sex work. Associated Press 

Asia and Oceania

House China panel chair Gallagher, in Taiwan, says U.S. support is “rock-solid.” Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., chair of  the House select committee on China, told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen Thursday that bipartisan support for Taiwan remains strong. "Today we come, as Democrats and Republicans, to show our bipartisan support for this partnership, which thanks to your leadership is stronger and more rock-solid than ever," Gallagher told Tsai in the presidential office in a meeting broadcast live online.  Tsai thanked the U.S. for helping bolster Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and said she hoped to see more Taiwan-U.S. exchanges this year. A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Beijing views Taiwan as its territory and opposes official exchanges between U.S. and Taiwanese officials.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg  New York Times 

Philippine coast guard denies Chinese claim of intrusion.  A Philippines coast guard official on Thursday described as "inaccurate" the Chinese coast guard’s claim that a boat from the Philippines' Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources "illegally intruded" into Beijing's waters.  "This statement is inaccurate,” Commodore Jay Tarriela, the coast guard's spokesperson on South China Sea issues, told reporters.  “The BFAR vessel, BRP Datu Sanday, continues to patrol the waters of Bajo De Masinloc. Currently, the BFAR vessel is actively ensuring the security of Filipino fishermen in that area." Reuters

China to send giant pandas to San Diego, signaling effort to reduce tensions. China plans to send a new pair of giant pandas to the San Diego Zoo. If all permits and requirements are approved, a male and a female panda are expected to arrive at the zoo by the end of summer. Pandas have been a symbol of U.S.-China friendship since 1972 when Beijing gifted a pair to the National Zoo in Washington, D.C. However, unproven allegations of mistreatment of pandas at U.S. zoos prompted calls in China for the return of the pandas. Last year, several U.S. zoos returned their pandas to China and negotiations to extend the U.S.-China panda loan agreement failed to produce results. The agreement expires later this year. Concerns about the future of panda diplomacy with the U.S. were alleviated in November when Chinese President Xi Jinping committed to sending pandas to the U.S. again when he met with President Joe Biden in California.  Associated Press 

China, India hold another round of border talks.  China and India concluded their 21st round of corps commander-level talks on their disputed border in the Himalayas. The negotiations are aimed at achieving a "complete disengagement" along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh. Both countries described the talks as positive and constructive, with a commitment to finding a mutually acceptable solution to border tensions as soon as possible. The dialogue comes as regular military exercises and troop-buildup continue in the region.  South China Morning Post

China debuts newest Z-10ME attack helicopter at Singapore AirShow.  China's latest Z-10ME attack helicopter is making its international debut at the Singapore Airshow. The Z-10ME, an upgraded export version, is designed to provide fire support for ground forces with improved resistance and attack power. It is equipped with warning systems for laser weapons and missiles, countermeasure systems for electronic and infrared interference, and a sand filter for desert operations. Pakistan is the only known export customer of the model, and no further sales have been announced so far at the air show. Experts say China’s promotion of the helicopter is part of its efforts to tap into the rising global demand for weapons amid increasing tensions and conflicts. Analysts suggest that historical purchasers of Chinese equipment, particularly countries which do not have access to U.S. defense technology, could represent potential markets for Chinese platforms. However, there could be challenges in after-sales logistics and maintenance support since China is relatively inexperienced in these areas.  South China Morning Post Reuters 

Japan showcases companies at Singapore Airshow.  Japan's Defense Ministry is showcasing 13 domestic companies at the Singapore Airshow, highlighting its growing presence in the global defense market. The display includes a range of defense systems and military equipment, such as maritime and transport aircraft, helicopters, aerospace parts, semiconductors, radars, and geostationary satellites. Japan’s presence at the airshow is one of its largest industrial contingents abroad after the loosening of arms export controls. Tokyo has also increased support for major defense companies and startups to collaborate with foreign counterparts. Experts say there are lots of opportunities for Japanese defense-related companies, though they may face challenges due to their relative inexperience out of the country.  Defense News 

Chinese research ship visits Maldives, raising Indian Ocean security concerns.  A Chinese research ship, Xiang Yang Hong 03, arrived in the Maldives, just three months after a similar vessel's visit in the Indian Ocean raised security concerns for New Delhi. The ship, owned by a research institute reporting to China's natural resources ministry, made a port call in the Maldives capital, Male, after spending over three weeks surveying waters outside the exclusive economic zones of India, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. China asserts that the research is for peaceful purposes to benefit scientific understanding, while a U.S. think tank had suggested that China's navy could use insights gained from such missions for naval deployments. India has expressed concern about China's research vessels in the Indian Ocean, citing their "dual-use" nature for both civilian and military purposes. The Maldives clarified that the vessel would not conduct research in its waters, stopping only for personnel rotation and supply replenishment.  Reuters Nikkei Asia

ANALYSIS — Red Sea ballistic crisis trigger Asian interest in missile defenses.  The use of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) in the Red Sea, namely by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, has generated interests in Asia about defense systems used to down and intercept them. U.S. Central Command reported 48 ASBMs and 12 interceptions in the Red Sea from Nov. 27 to Feb. 20, marking the first documented use of an ASBM in combat. The air defense activity has drawn attention from potential customers in Asia who have an increased demand for integrated air and missile defense systems. Experts note that while the use of ASBMs in the Red Sea offers valuable lessons, the complexity and range of Chinese ASBMs far surpasses capabilities fielded by the Houthis.  Reuters 

Europe

Mark Rutte in position to be next NATO boss. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has support from two-thirds of NATO countries to lead the alliance later this year, according to senior officials. Rutte, the sole candidate proposed by NATO's thirty-one member governments, has campaigned for the position since November. NATO members are facing increasing pressure to endorse Rutte before the upcoming leaders' summit in Washington in July, where he would succeed Jens Stoltenberg, who has led NATO since 2014.  Politico 

Czech Republic seeking 30 more Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany.  The Czech Republic is in discussions with Germany to receive 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks as a gift in compensation for Czech military support for Ukraine. Additionally, the Czech Republic may purchase 15 more Leopard 2A4 tanks from the German defense industry for several hundreds of millions of euros. The acquisition would enhance the Czech military's capabilities as it transitions from Soviet-era equipment largely donated to Ukraine. If negotiations are successful, the Czech Republic will have a total of 42 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks and recovery tanks on the same chassis. The Czech government is also in talks to purchase around 70 Leopard 2A8 tanks in a joint purchase with the German government. After 2030, the Czech Army may have over 100 Leopard tanks of two types in active service and reserve.  Reuters 

China sees Europe as increasingly 'rational' about its development, says foreign minister. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that Europe's perception of China “is becoming more rational.” In an interview transcript released by his ministry on Wednesday, Wang said Europe's growing understanding that China's progress aligns with historical logic and is allowing for new avenues of cooperation. Wang stressed the importance of maintaining cooperation and mutual trust between Europe and China.  Reuters

UK's Trident nuclear-deterrent missile system misfires during test. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and other high-ranking officials were present aboard a Royal Navy nuclear submarine during a failed test-firing of a Trident II 5 nuclear missile last month. The mishap occurred as the missile crashed into the sea near the submarine HMS Vanguard, which was conducting demonstration operations off the coast of Florida after undergoing a seven-year maintenance program. Shapps acknowledged the failure in a statement to parliament on Wednesday following earlier press reports on the incident. Trident II 5’s crash is the second consecutive failed test for the Royal Navy, with the previous incident occurring in 2016 when a missile deviated from its intended course and was destroyed. Despite the anomaly, the Ministry of Defence assured that Britain's nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective, emphasizing that over 190 successful tests of the Trident missile system have been conducted by the U.K. and the U.S.  Reuters New York Times Defense News 

UK sanctions six Russians running Arctic prison where Navalny died. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron announced yesterday that his country has sanctioned six men it said run the “brutal prison camp” where Alexei Navalny died. Colonel Vadim Konstantinovich Kalinin, the commander at the Polar Wolf penal colony, and five deputies will be banned from travel to the U.K. and have any U.K. assets frozen. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told the House of Commons that the U.K., together with its allies, is considering all options “to hold Russia to account.” The Russian embassy in London said Britain is interfering in Russian internal affairs and passing judgment before the investigation of Navalny’s death is complete. The U.K. says it has imposed sanctions on more than 1,700 people and entities since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began two years ago.  Politico Reuters 

Navalny’s mother sues for release of body; mourners face military draft. Alexi Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya, has filed a lawsuit in Russian court accusing Russian investigators of breaking the law by refusing to release her son’s body. Tass reported the court scheduled a hearing to hear her claim on March 4. Tass said the hearing will be closed to the media and the public. Almost 77,000 Russians have signed a petition initiated by the legal rights group OVD-Info calling on Russian authorities to release Navalny’s body to his family. Since Navalny’s death, Russian authorities have arrested more than 400 citizens who laid flowers in his memory and has recorded the names of hundreds more. Russian Telegram outlet RusNews reported that in St. Petersburg, several men arrested at Nevalny memorials were issued military draft notices as they departed detention centers. Washington Post

Russian activists abroad pin hopes on Yulia Navalnaya. Many Russian activists are looking to Alexei Nevalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, to pick up the torch. Navalnaya has promised to continue her husband’s work, and has called on Russians to share her “rage” at Russian President Vladimir Putin. But she is currently outside Russia and has said she would risk arrest if she returned.  Reuters  Associated Press

ANALYSIS - Killing of Russian defector in Spain points to Putin’s sense of impunity.  Russian pilot Maksim Kuzminov, who defected to Ukraine last year, was found dead in Spain in a targeted attack. Kuzminov's body was discovered with gunshot wounds, and he was run over with his own vehicle by assailants who used the car to escape. Kuzminov fell into a category particularly scorned by Russian President Vladimir Putin – traitors from within the military and security services.His killing sends a signal that those who oppose the Kremlin, even outside Russia's borders, may not be safe. The incident also resembled a mob hit, suggesting Russia may be using criminal networks to compensate for its curtailed operational presence across Europe.  Washington Post 

A Russian Military Blogger Dies After Criticizing Army Losses. Andrei Morozov, a pro-Kremlin Russian military blogger who posted about Russian military losses in Avdiivka was found dead on Wednesday. His death was reported by Russian state media as a “suicide.” Morozov’s death comes days after the removal of a post on Telegram in which he exposed Russia's significant losses in Avdiivka, claiming 16,000 casualties and 300 armored vehicles in the recent battle for Avdiivka. Morozov deleted the post on Tuesday amid alleged intimidation. In subsequent Telegram posts, he outlined complaints from the Russian military and Kremlin propagandists, sharing death threats from the Kremlin. Morozov began blogging on LiveJournal in the 2000s, later joining ultra-nationalist intellectuals in fighting the war in eastern Ukraine after the 2014 occupation. His death is unlikely to be investigated further in Russia.  New York Times Kyiv Independent

Russian court upholds barring of anti-war presidential candidate Nadezhdin.  Russia's Supreme Court upheld a ruling by electoral authorities barring anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from the presidential election, leaving President Vladimir Putin without significant challengers. Nadezhdin was disqualified due to alleged irregularities found by the Central Election Commission in the list of supporters' signatures he presented. The court's decision removes the only remaining candidate who has spoken out against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It also further solidifies Putin's position in the March 15-17 election, where he faces three other candidates who are not critical of his rule. Nadezhdin said he will appeal the latest decision but acknowledged that his chances of running have fallen “completely to zero.”  Reuters (Read Why Did the Kremlin Ban Boris Nadezhdin from the Ballot? in The Cipher Brief)

Lithuania closes border checkpoints with Belarus.  Lithuania announced on Wednesday that it will close two more checkpoints at its border with Belarus on March 1, leaving only two of six checkpoints still open. Vilnius also said it would suspend crossings by pedestrians and cyclists through the two remaining checkpoints. Tensions between the two countries have increased since Belarus took in thousands of Russian soldiers. Belarus also is accused of funneling Middle Eastern and African migrants into Europe. Lithuanian Interior Minister Ange Bilotaite told reporters the decision was the result of risks associated with “the increased activities of the Belarusian intelligence and security services against Lithuania and our citizens” and that large resources are needed “to control flows, prevent smuggling, ensure international sanctions, and reduce traffic safety risks.”  Associated Press Kyiv Independent

Germany says Europe’s largest economy is in ‘troubled waters’ and cuts its growth forecast. The German government has significantly reduced its growth forecast for the country's economy, citing challenges such as a lack of skilled labor, bureaucratic hurdles, high interest rates, and insufficient investment in new projects. The growth forecast was slashed to 0.2% from the previous estimate of 1.3%, following a contraction of 0.3% in 2023. Factors contributing to the economic struggles include the disruption of Russian gas supplies, which spiked energy costs and contributed to high inflation, although recent declines in inflation and energy prices have alleviated some pressure. Other ongoing issues include slowing global trade, difficulties in obtaining skilled workers, bureaucratic red tape, and lagging investment in digital and transport infrastructure. Additionally, a modest tax break for businesses remains blocked in the legislature, leading to tensions between the government and the opposition. Despite these challenges, efforts have been made to address the shortage of skilled labor through immigration reforms and shortened citizenship wait times.  Associated  Press

Spain’s prime minister meets with Morocco’s king and discusses migration and the Israel-Hamas war. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Morocco and met with King Mohammed VI, emphasizing cooperation on migration management. Sánchez expressed support for Morocco's autonomy plan regarding Western Sahara and called for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. He also highlighted the importance of humanitarian aid, particularly mentioning the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. The meeting occurred amidst increased migration to the Canary Islands, with Morocco intercepting boats heading to Spain's shores. Sánchez reiterated Spain's support for Morocco and discussed economic ties and trade issues, including protests in Spain over imported goods from Morocco, such as tomatoes. Associated Press

Albania is expected to approve a deal with Italy to process thousands of migrants’ claims for asylum.  Albania's Parliament approved a controversial deal allowing the country to host up to 3,000 asylum seekers for Italy, despite opposition and criticism from human rights groups. Signed in November between Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, the five-year agreement aims to share the burden of migration management. The deal, endorsed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, faced opposition disruption during the vote, with the Parliament voting 77-0 in favor. Albania, not an EU member, has been criticized for accepting the deal, but Rama defended it, stating that Albania is acting like an EU state by sharing the migration challenge. The deal includes the setup of processing centers in Albania, funded by Italy, with operational responsibility remaining with Italy while asylum requests are fast-tracked. Italy retains legal responsibility for the migrants throughout the process, ensuring compliance with international and EU law. Associated Press 

Middle East

Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles.  Iran has reportedly provided Russia with around 400 powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, including Fateh-110 family missiles such as the Zolfaghar, which is capable of striking targets between 300 and 700 km. Sources said the shipments began in early January and suggest that there have been at least four shipments, with more expected in the coming weeks. The missiles were sent to Russia by ship via the Caspian Sea and by plane. The U.S. has expressed concerns about Russia acquiring short-range ballistic weapons from Iran. U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran's export of some missiles expired in October 2021, but the U.S. and EU retained sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program. Russia, Iran’s defense ministry and the Revolutionary Guards Corps have not yet officially responded to the reports. Experts say Russia is seeking to boost its missile arsenal as Ukraine faces air defense shortages amid uncertainty on new Western aid.  Reuters 

Iran accuses Israel of sabotage attack on gas pipeline.  Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji accused Israel of carrying out a sabotage attack on an Iranian natural gas pipeline last week. Owji claimed it was an Israeli plot to disrupt gas service in provinces and endanger people's gas distribution. He did not provide evidence for the claim. Israel has not officially acknowledged the attack. Israel has previously conducted attacks in Iran mostly targeting its nuclear program.  Associated Press 

Turkey's KAAN fighter jet conducts first flight. Turkey's inaugural national combat aircraft, KAAN, successfully conducted its maiden flight on Wednesday, marking a significant stride in the nation's air force modernization endeavors. In 2016, Turkey initiated the TF-X project aimed at domestically manufacturing combat aircraft. Collaborating with Britain's BAE Systems in a $125 million deal in 2017, Turkish aerospace firm TUSAS has been at the forefront of developing the fighter jet.  Reuters

Africa

Somalia makes deal with Turkey to bolster naval forces amid Ethiopia tensions. Somalia announced a defense deal with Turkey aimed at enhancing Somali sea assets and potentially countering Ethiopia's efforts to enact a sea access deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland. Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in January to lease a stretch of land along the region’s coast to establish a marine force base. The move has increased tensions with Somalia, which has threatened to go to war over the matter since it considers Somaliland as part of its territory. Somalia views the Turkey deal as a response to perceived aggression, even as Somaliland has enjoyed de facto independence for three decades. The agreement includes Turkey providing training and equipment to the Somali Navy to protect territorial waters from threats such as terrorism and piracy. The deal is set to be in force for a decade and is seen as an opportunity for Turkey to expand its influence in Africa.  Defense News Associated Press  

Libya armed groups agree to leave Tripoli after deadly fighting: Minister.  Armed groups in Tripoli have agreed to vacate Libya's capital of Tripoli and be replaced by regular forces following a series of deadly clashes, announced Interior Minister Imad Trabelsi on Wednesday. Trabelsi stated that after a month of negotiations, an agreement was reached for the departure of security groups, leaving only city police, emergency police, and criminal investigators. The deal involves several armed factions, including the General Security Force and the Special Deterrence Force, relinquishing control of Tripoli. These groups, born out of the post-Gaddafi revolution, operate independently and have caused turmoil, notably seen in violent clashes last August that resulted in numerous casualties. Al Jazeera 

Senegal President Sall “slow” to set election date, opposition says. Opposition candidates in Senegal's presidential election are criticizing authorities for their delay in releasing a new election date, following a court ruling that deemed a 10-month postponement illegal. President Macky Sall pledged to comply with the Constitutional Council's directive to schedule the vote promptly, after the court invalidated Sall's decree to postpone the election, originally slated for February 25th. Several opposition candidates advocate for holding the election before Sall's mandate expires on April 2nd.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

AT&T customers report a massive outage, disrupting phone service across America. AT&T experienced a widespread network outage on Thursday morning, affecting customers across the United States and rendering them unable to make calls, send texts, or access the internet. While Verizon and T-Mobile also reported some outages, they were less extensive, with both companies stating that their networks were not impacted by AT&T's service interruption. More than 73,000 AT&T customers reported outages on DownDetector, although the exact cause of the system failure remains unknown. AT&T advised affected customers to use Wi-Fi calling until service is restored and has been responding to complaints online. Several local governments noted disruptions in emergency services due to the outage, prompting suggestions for alternative means of contacting 911. While T-Mobile and Verizon denied experiencing outages themselves, some of their customers may have encountered difficulties connecting with AT&T users.  CNN Reuters

White House order addresses port cybersecurity, reinforces Coast Guard oversight.  On Wednesday the White House issued an executive order (EO) that creates new requirements to strengthen cyber defenses for the nation’s ports.  The EO empowers the Coast Guard with expanded authorities to take steps against port authorities that do not improve cybersecurity.  The Coast Guard also will be authorized to control movements of vessels that pose cybersecurity risks and can mandate that maritime facilities reinforce cyber defense that fall below baseline standards.  More than $20 billion has been earmarked for improvements to port infrastructure over the next 5 years, including the gradual replacement of Chinese-built ship-to-shore cranes.  Chinese firms own 80 percent of U.S. port cranes, which pose cyber risks because they can be controlled remotely.  Rear Adm. Jay Vann, the U.S. Coast Guard Cyber Command’s top official, said that a “notice of proposed rulemaking” will be derived from CISA’s cybersecurity performance goals and will establish stricter requirements for the port sector.  The Record Wall Street Journal CyberScoop South China Morning Post

NSA cyber director wraps up 34-year career with end-of-March retirement.  NSA cyber director Rob Joyce will retire from the agency at the end of March, capping a 34-year career.  As head of the NSA Cybersecurity Directorate (CSD), Joyce has been instrumental in improving intelligence-sharing with other agencies and in collaborating with the tech industry and critical infrastructure operators.  Joyce also frequently warned of cyber threats from new and emerging technologies, like generative AI chatbots capable of enhancing deployment of malware tools.  The new NSA director, Gen. Timothy Haugh, lauded Joyce’s contributions, saying his vision and development of the directorate “ensures that NSA’s cybersecurity mission is healthy and will continue to be successful in protecting our allies and national systems well into the future.”  Joyce will be succeeded by David Luber, CSD deputy director and a 36-year NSA veteran.  The Record CyberScoop NextGov

DoD symposium notes need for speed, caution in adopting AI operational solutions.  A three-day symposium this week hosted by the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) is spotlighting the military’s potential use of emerging AI technologies.  CDAO director Craig Martell told the opening day of the Advantage DOD 2024 symposium that the DoD’s challenge is to balance speed and caution in developing military applications for the technology.  Referring to AI applications that could empower operational forces, Martell said, "imagine a world where combatant commanders can see everything they need to see to make strategic decisions.  Imagine a world where…the turnaround time for situational awareness shrinks from a day or two to 10 minutes."  Martell appealed to industry representatives in attendance to collaborate on military applications, noting “we can’t do this without you.  All of these components that we’re envisioning are going to be collections of industrial solutions.”  The conference also heard cautions that AI-powered decision-making tools need to be tested for vulnerabilities that adversaries could exploit.  Nathan VanHoudnos, a Carnegie Mellon scientist, observed that “an adversary can make your AI system do something that you don’t want it to do.  An adversary can make your AI system learn the wrong thing.”  Washington Post   DoD News

Pentagon achieves ‘minimum viable’ version of CJADC2, Hicks says. The U.S. Department of Defense, as announced by Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks, has achieved  “minimum viability” of the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2), a communications network that will connect sensors across military branches into a unified network. Hicks announced this milestone on Wednesday, at the Defense Data and AI Symposium in Washington DC, emphasizing the system's low latency and high reliability. While more development is needed, recent strides in advanced communication and information-sharing processes have transformed the CJADC2 concept into a tangible reality, albeit in a limited capacity. This progress stems from the Global Information Dominance experiments (GIDEs) conducted by the Defense Department's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), revived in 2023 to enhance military coordination and address the role of AI. Previously led by Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, GIDEs aim to digitally link forces across various domains to counter future tech-capable adversaries effectively.  Defense News

NATO CIO points to Ukraine conflict lessons on national resiliency, decision-making.  Manfred Boudreaux-Dehmer, NATO's chief information officer, described the novel ways in which cyber and kinetic operations have been combined in the Ukraine war to advance military goals.  Speaking at the Munich Cyber Security Conference (MCSC) last week, Boudreaux-Dehmer said there are multiple lessons that other nations can draw from the conflict such as the “speed and agility” that Ukraine has demonstrated in responding to Russia’s aggression.  He pointed in particular to Kyiv’s orchestration of parties from government, military, industry, and civil organizations to counteract Russia’s cyber operations. “They came together in a way I've never seen before anywhere else,” he commented.  Boudreaux-Dehmer also noted that Ukraine’s decision and implementation of the transition of its data holdings to secure cloud environments was vital to its ability to forestall major Russian cyberattacks.  He said that the Ukrainians accomplished this with “remarkable” speed — within two weeks.”  The Record

Taiwan chip firms flock to Japan as China decoupling accelerates.  Taiwanese chip companies are expanding their presence in Japan, drawn by the prospects of the country's semiconductor industry rebuilding. At least nine Taiwanese chip firms have set up or expanded operations in Japan over the past two years, and more are considering increasing their presence in the country. Japan has been actively supporting its semiconductor industry with substantial subsidies and investments, recognizing the strategic importance of semiconductors for economic security. The trend is also driven by shifting alliances and priorities in the global chip industry, particularly as the U.S. aims to limit China's progress in semiconductors.  Reuters 

ANALYSIS — China’s Rush to Dominate A.I. Comes With a Twist: It Depends on U.S. Technology.  Chinese companies are relying heavily on underlying systems from the U.S, particularly Meta's LLaMA, as they seek to catch up in the generative artificial intelligence (A.I.) race. Despite a regulatory crackdown, censorship rules, and limitations on A.I. model training, Chinese firms are facing pressure to keep pace with U.S. innovations. The U.S. has openly shared software, contributing to China's reliance on A.I. systems from the U.S. China's challenges in generative A.I. development have raised questions about its innovation model.  New York Times

Spyware detected on phones of European Parliament defense subcommittee members.  Members of the European Parliament defense subcommittee have been advised to have their smartphones examined for evidence of spyware after hacking traces were discovered on two devices.  Intrusive surveillance software tools have been discovered on subcommittee members’ phones, according to an internal email.  A December report by Politico disclosed that an internal Parliament review showed that cybersecurity measures did not meet industry standards and were not equal to the “threat level" posed by state-sponsored and other threat actors.  A Greek member’s phone was infected with Predator spyware in 2022.  Subsequently, a parliamentary investigation discovered that at least four governments across Europe, including Poland, Greece, Hungary and Spain, had used advanced surveillance tools for political operations or to monitor journalists.  Politico The Record

Late 2023 Commerce Department action halted U.S. supplies to Huawei chipmaker.  The Biden administration has taken steps to block Huawei’s access to U.S. chip exports in the wake of the Chinese company’s production of a sophisticated smartphone chip.  The Commerce Department late last year instructed U.S. firms providing chipmaking parts and materials to the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) to suspend deliveries to SMIC South, the company’s most advanced facility.  As a result of the Commerce Department action, millions of dollars of chipmaking materials and parts supplies from the Entegris company were cut off.  Entegris said that prior shipments to SMIC were carried out with a valid export license and that it halted further deliveries in accordance with Commerce Department instructions.  SMIC and Huawei did not respond to requests for comment, but a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington said, "This is out-and-out economic bullying and will inevitably backfire.  We urge the U.S. side to stop overstretching the concept of national security and abusing the state power to suppress Chinese companies.”  According to experts, SMIC South is the company’s only facility capable of making the Huawei Mate 60's 7 nanometer chip.  Reuters

Apple plans to deploy quantum-resistant cryptography capability on iMessage platform.  Apple on Wednesday announced it will equip the iMessage texting platform with cryptographic protocols capable of resisting decryption by future quantum computers.  Apple described its action as a precaution against actions by threat actors to store current iMessage data and later decrypt them by quantum means.  An Apple blog post said that rather than simply replacing a current algorithm, the company rebuilt “the iMessage cryptographic protocol from the ground up.  It will fully replace the existing protocol within all supported conversations this year.”  The cryptographic protection is being beta tested and is expected to be released in iOS 17.4.  Apple’s cryptographic algorithm, based on a system approved by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), will reportedly be one of the largest deployments in the world.  NSA and CISA are urging government departments to move to post-quantum cryptography, with initial efforts providing “roadmaps” for how to do so. Previously, the Signal encrypted messaging platform and the Cloudfare cybersecurity firm announced their services and products will feature post-quantum cryptography.  CyberScoop Reuters

U.S. offers up to $15 million for information on LockBit leaders, State Dept says. The U.S. is seeking information on the Russian-based ransomware gang LockBit, offering a reward of up to $15 million for information on its leaders. The State Department’s request for information is the latest move in a series of international law enforcement crackdowns targeting Lockbit. The U.S., along with the U.K. and the E.U., revealed this week that they conducted an aggressive operation that disrupted LockBit. Authorities seized the group’s webpage and imposed sanctions and indictments against key operatives of the group. Suspected members of the group were arrested in the operation as well, including individuals in Poland and a father-son duo in Ukraine.  Reuters The Record Reuters Kyiv Independent