Report for Thursday, February 20, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Thursday, February 20, 2025

Trump’s Attack on Zelensky Signals New World Order Taking Shape

Pentagon told to plan for drastic budget cuts

U.S. formally designates Mexican cartels, others as foreign terrorist organizations

U.S. makes significant changes to State Department webpage on China

Russian hackers targeting Signal messaging app used by Ukrainian military

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

After Seismic Shifts in US-Russia Relations, What Will Europe Do? Nick Fishwick, a former British Foreign Service official, told Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly that Europe must take the lead in Ukraine as the U.S. shifts toward Russia. He argued that while the Trump administration may seek a settlement, European trust in President Vladimir Putin is nonexistent, and Russia remains a threat. Fishwick urged European nations to bolster their defense industries, consider deploying forces to Ukraine, and strengthen deterrence in the Baltics and Poland. He dismissed the idea that a U.S.-Russia deal would end hostilities, describing the current state as a "non-military war." He also warned that a perceived U.S. retreat benefits China, which gains leverage from Russia’s increasing dependency. Fishwick emphasized that Europe must prepare for long-term geopolitical confrontation with both Russia and China. While acknowledging political divisions within Europe, he maintained that European military capacity could be strengthened to ensure NATO’s deterrence remains credible, even without traditional U.S. support. The Cipher Brief

Expert Q&A: What Would John McCain Think? Evelyn Farkas, speaking with Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly, described a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Europe relations at the Munich Security Conference, with European leaders increasingly fearing abandonment by the U.S. as it shifts toward Russia. She noted that Vice President JD Vance’s speech, critical of European democracy, reinforced concerns that Washington is undermining traditional alliances. Europeans worry the U.S. may negotiate over their heads, possibly withdrawing from or weakening NATO. Farkas emphasized that the late U.S. Sen. John McCain would have unequivocally backed Ukraine, warning that abandoning Kyiv risks emboldening Russia and China. While congressional Republicans largely support NATO, internal divisions within the party create uncertainty. European leaders now recognize they must take greater responsibility for their own defense. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech challenged Europe to stand up to Russia without relying on U.S. leadership. Farkas concluded that this shift in U.S. foreign policy leaves European leaders questioning America’s long-term commitment to shared democratic values. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump tells Zelensky to move fast for peace or lose Ukraine. President Donald Trump intensified his attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday. In a social media post, Trump mocked Zelensky as a failing and possibly corrupt leader, stating, “A Dictator without Elections, Zelensky better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.” His remarks echoed Kremlin propaganda questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy and demanding elections, which Ukraine’s constitution bars under martial law. Trump again blamed Zelensky, not President Vladimir Putin, for starting Russia’s war. Trump called him “a modestly successful comedian” who “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle.” Trump also asserted without evidence that half of the aid went missing and said he wanted an audit of spending. “Zelensky probably wants to keep the ‘gravy train’ going. I love Ukraine, but Zelensky has done a terrible job.” The U.S. financial contribution to Ukraine is roughly $100 billion – not $350 billion – since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Even Zelensky’s critics in Ukraine rallied to his side, emphasizing that only Ukrainians decide their leadership. The comments dominated Russian state media, portraying Trump as endorsing Putin’s stance. Reuters Washington Post Wall Street Journal Politico Associated Press New York Times CNN

Trump seeks to revive the minerals deal; if Ukraine refuses, Zelensky won’t be ‘too happy.’ Speaking aboard Air Force One on Wednesday night, President Donald Trump criticized Ukraine for rejecting a rare earth mineral deal, claiming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was “treated rather rudely” during his recent visit to Kyiv. “Scott Bessent actually went there and was treated rather rudely because essentially, they told him no, and (President Volodymyr) Zelensky was sleeping and unavailable to meet him,” Trump said, emphasizing that Bessent endured a “dangerous” train journey only to return empty-handed. Trump vowed to “resurrect” the deal or warned that “things are gonna not make (Zelensky) too happy.” He also renewed calls for elections in Ukraine and questioned the accountability of U.S. aid, stating, “I’d like to find out all the money that we’ve been sending to Ukraine. Where is it?” Trump contrasted Ukraine’s stance with Europe: "For Europe, they pay back their money. It’s a loan.” Speaking on Russia, he claimed, “We’re doing very well… we could make a deal to stop the killing.” Citing its sources, Reuters reported that Trump envoy Keith Kellogg, who is visiting Ukraine, will pursue revised terms with Zelensky. The U.S. seeks access to lithium, uranium, titanium, and graphite, among other valuable minerals. Trump argues U.S. investment in Ukraine should help recoup American aid. Zelensky rejected the initial offer to sign over 50% of Ukraine’s resources, saying the country was not for sale. The Ukrainian leader also insists that any deal include U.S. security guarantees. The proposal faces criticism for being exploitative, but Ukraine may offer concessions to secure continuing U.S. financial and military support. CNN YouTube Reuters

Trump tells BBC that Russia has 'the cards' in peace negotiations. President Donald Trump told the BBC aboard Air Force One on Wednesday that Russia holds “the cards” in any peace negotiations because it has taken a lot of Ukrainian territory. "I think the Russians want to see the war end. I really do. I think they have the cards a little bit because they've taken a lot of territory. They have the cards," Trump said as he was flying back to Washington after speaking at a Saudi-backed investment meeting in Florida, where he called President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator" for the second time in a day. Russian forces occupy nearly 20% of Ukraine. BBC

Kremlin Message to Trump: There’s Money to Be Made in Russia. The Kremlin is appealing to President Donald Trump’s business instincts, arguing that U.S. companies stand to regain billions by re-entering Russia. Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, presented a report at talks in Riyadh showing $324 billion in lost U.S. profits due to sanctions. Trump’s administration appears receptive, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting sanctions could be lifted if the war ends. Russia offers immediate business incentives, unlike Ukraine, which has proposed natural resource deals. Trump, eager for a swift end to the war, may accept a deal on Russia’s terms, sidelining Ukraine and rewarding Moscow without demanding concessions. “Trump doesn’t care much about long-term strategic goals,” said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned over the war in Ukraine. “Putin is trying to play on this feeling and get him interested in very quick material gains that are immediately clear to Trump.” New York Times

Inside the 48 hours that Trump turned on Zelensky. President Donald Trump’s public break with President Volodymyr Zelensky was not a sudden outburst but the result of growing frustration within his inner circle. His aides had been closely monitoring Zelensky’s statements, particularly his criticism of U.S. exclusion from Saudi-hosted talks with Russia on Tuesday. Trump, already skeptical of Ukraine, saw this as a direct challenge. During a meeting at his Florida estate, Trump fumed over Zelensky’s remarks, telling aides he wanted to “hit back.” His team debated the best approach, wary of alienating allies. Ultimately, Trump posted his inflammatory message on Truth Social while en route to his Miami golf club. Later that night, at a Saudi-backed investment event, he expanded on his attack, mocking Zelensky’s reliance on U.S. aid. Behind the scenes, Trump’s team believes his remarks serve a purpose—pushing Europe to increase support for Ukraine while framing himself as the only leader capable of ending the war. European leaders, alarmed, scrambled to reaffirm their backing for Kyiv. CNN

Starmer, Macron will present Trump with Ukraine peacekeeping plan next week. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will propose a European-led force of fewer than 30,000 troops to oversee a Ukraine ceasefire when he and French President Emmanuel Macron meet President Donald Trump in Washington next week. The Anglo-French plan, presented at an emergency Paris meeting on Wednesday, aims to secure U.S. military backing to deter Russia from violating a potential deal. Starmer will argue that U.S. and European airpower, including fighter jets stationed in Poland and Romania, is essential to protecting European peacekeepers deployed to cities, ports, and infrastructure, while drones and surveillance would monitor compliance. The plan avoids NATO's direct confrontation with Russia but seeks a U.S. "backstop" for credibility. The proposal follows concerns that Trump, who has blamed Ukraine for the war and excluded Kyiv from peace talks, may abandon Ukraine post-ceasefire. Starmer’s pitch underscores European fears that Russia could invade again without U.S. involvement. President Volodymyr Zelensky, who sought a 200,000-strong peacekeeping force, remains sidelined in negotiations. The Telegraph Financial Times The Times

Kremlin says any plan to send European troops to Ukraine would be unacceptable for Russia. The Kremlin rejected any plan to send European troops to Ukraine, calling it unacceptable and a security threat. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said NATO troop involvement would fundamentally alter the situation and is being closely monitored. Russia has consistently opposed NATO presence in Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warning it would be seen as a direct threat. Moscow also demanded NATO abandon its 2008 pledge to eventually admit Ukraine. The reaction follows reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to propose a European force under U.S. protection as part of a ceasefire security arrangement with Kyiv. Reuters

Macron Says France and Allies 'United' On Ukraine. After a meeting with 19 allied leaders on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that France and its partners are "clear and united" on ensuring Ukraine’s rights and European security in any future peace deal. “We stand by Ukraine and will carry out all our responsibilities to ensure peace and security in Europe,” he posted on X. He warned that "Russia poses an existential threat to Europeans" and stressed the need to boost European defense spending. Macron meets U.S. President Donald Trump next week, as Trump signals openness to direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, bypassing Kyiv and European allies. Barron’s

Trump Turns on Zelensky, Leaving Ukraine Few Options Amid War. President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a dire choice as President Donald Trump shifts against him and pressures Ukraine to accept a deal with Russia. With Trump questioning U.S. support, Zelensky can either fight on with dwindling Western aid or engage in talks shaped by Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s direct outreach to Putin and public denouncement of Zelensky as a “dictator” suggest a push for Kyiv’s capitulation. Trump’s team has negotiated with Russia without Ukraine’s involvement and proposed a deal linking U.S. aid to control over Ukraine’s mineral wealth, which Zelenskiy rejected. European allies have voiced support but lack the military capacity to replace U.S. assistance. Trump has not yet cut aid but has framed Ukraine’s NATO aspirations as the cause of the war, aligning with Moscow. Facing mounting pressure, Zelensky met with Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, in Kyiv, hoping to salvage ties before decisions are made without him. Bloomberg

Trump’s rush to strike a deal on Ukraine hands Putin the advantage. President Donald Trump’s rush for a Ukraine deal is already benefiting Russia. He has aligned with key Kremlin positions on the war without stating what, if anything, Moscow must concede. He has voiced opposition to Ukraine joining NATO and has been dismissive of Kyiv’s efforts to reclaim Kremlin-occupied territories—both longstanding Russian goals. Trump also organized talks in Riyadh on Tuesday without Kyiv or European allies and adopted President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric by blaming Ukraine for the war and attacking President Volodymyr Zelensky. While Trump seeks a quick resolution, Putin is in no hurry, confident that U.S. impatience may secure Russia’s objectives. Financial Times Associated Press

Trump Falsely Says Ukraine Started the War With Russia. Here Is What to Know. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, seeking to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and drawing widespread international condemnation. The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution calling for Russia’s immediate withdrawal. Russian forces stormed Kyiv’s outskirts, committing atrocities like the Bucha massacre. The International Criminal Court has accused President Vladimir Putin of war crimes. Russia currently occupies 20% of Ukraine. Despite heavy losses, Russia has continued its advance, while Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled due to dwindling Western aid. Peace talks initiated by President Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday excluded Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s goal of negotiating without Kyiv. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled that Ukraine will not regain pre-2014 borders and that European nations, not NATO, will be responsible for its security. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, reinforcing concerns that Ukraine’s future is being decided without its input. Ukraine’s elections remain suspended under martial law, as its constitution permits. Despite Russian disinformation, Zelensky retains about 50% public approval. Any wartime election would disenfranchise millions. New York Times

Russians Are Cautiously Optimistic About Rapid U.S. Policy Shift. Russian officials welcomed the U.S. shift toward engagement but were surprised by its speed. After a high-level meeting on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump signaled that a summit with President Vladimir Putin could happen this month, while the Kremlin emphasized the need for preparation. Russian media framed the shift as a U.S. abandonment of Ukraine, with pro-Kremlin figures celebrating Trump's attacks on President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin sees an opportunity to pressure Trump into further concessions, including potential sanctions relief. Meanwhile, the European Union moved to tighten sanctions, underscoring that broader Western pressure on Russia remains. Wall Street Journal

Bucha Has a Question: Does Trump Remember the Russian Massacre? In Bucha, a city still haunted by Russia’s 2022 massacre, President Donald Trump’s remarks blaming Ukraine for the war have left residents angry and alarmed. At a soldier’s funeral, retired commander Andrii Pobihai condemned Trump’s comments, questioning how anyone could negotiate with Russia after its atrocities. Survivors like Iryna Abramova, whose husband was executed by Russian troops, fear justice could be abandoned. Orthodox priest Andriy Halavin shared images of the massacre, underscoring Bucha’s trauma. Many now worry Trump’s rhetoric signals a shift in U.S. policy that could leave Ukraine abandoned in its fight for survival. New York Times

EU floats plan to boost arms supplies to Ukraine. The European Union’s diplomatic service has proposed a new military aid package for Ukraine, urging each member state to contribute based on its economic size. The plan includes 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition, air defense systems, and long-range missiles. Some funding could come from profits on frozen Russian assets. Diplomats began discussions this week, but no decision is expected at Monday’s EU foreign ministers’ meeting. The EU has provided €48.5 billion in military aid since 2022 but previously missed its artillery shell delivery target. The proposal signals continued EU support as U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine’s war progress. Reuters

Zelensky says he discussed security guarantees with NATO's Rutte. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he discussed security guarantees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday, emphasizing that lasting peace requires strong protection against future Russian aggression. Writing on X, Zelensky warned against allowing President Vladimir Putin to “deceive everyone again” and stressed that negotiations must prioritize Ukraine’s security. His comments come as the U.S. and Russia held their first talks on ending the war. Zelensky rejected the idea of a temporary ceasefire, insisting that guarantees must prevent Russia from resuming its invasion in the future. Rutte, also writing on X, said he had a "good exchange" with the U.S. envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who is visiting Ukraine. Reuters

Russia’s executions of Ukrainian prisoners point to systematic policy. A Financial Times investigation suggests Russian forces are systematically executing Ukrainian prisoners of war, rather than these being isolated incidents. The documentary identifies Oleg Yakovlev, a Russian soldier, as a suspect in a mass execution video where six unarmed Ukrainians were shot in the back. Forensic analysis links his voice to the footage, though he denies involvement. Ukrainian prosecutors opened 43 cases into such executions last year, totaling 133 suspected deaths. Officials argue these killings reflect a broader Russian policy, not rogue actions. Moscow has dismissed allegations as propaganda while awarding units implicated in war crimes. Financial Times

Russia's Syzran oil refinery suspended operations following a drone attack, sources say.  Ukraine's drone attack on Russia’s Syzran oil refinery forced a suspension of operations on Wednesday after a fire broke out at the primary processing unit (CDU-6). The refinery, operated by Rosneft and located in Samara, has a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day but was processing about 90,000 barrels per day in 2024. The Syzran refinery had been targeted multiple times last year. Rosneft has not commented on the latest attack. The refinery is part of a larger complex that includes the Novokuibyshevsky and Kuibyshevsky plants, making it a key part of Russia’s oil infrastructure. Reuters

Russia says has taken back a major chunk of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces. Russia claims to have recaptured 800 square kilometers in the Kursk region, about 64% of what Ukraine took in last year’s cross-border raids. Colonel General Sergei Rudskoi said Russia is advancing on all fronts and has pushed Ukraine into a defensive stance since February 2024. He asserted that 75% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, along with nearly all of Luhansk, are under Russian control and will not be returned. Rudskoi claimed Ukraine's ability to sustain the war depends on Western support, as President Donald Trump pressures Kyiv to negotiate, further unsettling European allies. Reuters

U.S. ally Australia says Russia’s war must be resolved on Ukraine's terms. Australia reaffirmed its support for Ukraine, insisting that the war must end on Kyiv’s terms, not Russia’s. Defense Minister Richard Marles condemned Moscow as the aggressor and warned that compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty would undermine the global rules-based order. His remarks followed President Donald Trump’s claim that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s invasion and his warning that President Volodymyr Zelensky must quickly negotiate peace or risk losing the country. Australia's opposition leader, Peter Dutton, also criticized Trump, calling President Vladimir Putin a "murderous dictator" and urging continued support for Ukraine. Reuters

The American Who Went Undercover in Ukraine—for Moscow. Daniel Martindale represents the ideological shift among some American ultraconservatives who now see Russia as a defender of traditional values against the West. Raised in a deeply religious, anti-government family, he was drawn to Russia’s perceived moral order, ultimately betraying the U.S. to spy for Moscow. His journey—from missionary to Kremlin asset—symbolizes how Russian propaganda has cultivated Western dissidents, leveraging disillusionment with liberal democracies. Now showcased in Moscow, Martindale openly calls for Ukraine’s defeat, embodying the Kremlin’s effort to legitimize its war through foreign defectors who embrace its narrative of Western decay and Russian resurgence. Wall Street Journal

7 killed and 30 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed at least seven civilians and injured at least 30. In Donetsk Oblast, three were killed and 10 injured, including two deaths in Kostiantynivka from guided bomb strikes. Two people died and 13 were wounded in Kherson Oblast, including two children. In Kharkiv Oblast, two men were killed in Kupiansk, with five others injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast saw two injuries, while Russian strikes damaged an energy facility in Odesa, leaving 49,000 without power. Kyiv Independent

Russian mass attack targets Ukraine's gas facilities, energy minister says. Russian forces launched a mass drone and missile attack on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure overnight on Feb. 20, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said. The assault included 161 Shahed drones and 14 cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defenses downed 80 drones, while 78 others caused no damage. Gas production facilities were hit, though locations were undisclosed. Explosions occurred in Kyiv, Odesa, and nearby regions, with 49,000 consumers losing power in Odesa. Halushchenko said the strikes aim to cripple gas production. Earlier, he warned Ukraine may need to import 1 billion cubic meters of gas due to Russian attacks. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine behind FPV goggles explosions in Russia, source claims. A Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) operation was responsible for detonating FPV drone goggles used by Russian soldiers, a HUR source told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 20. Russian pro-war Telegram channels had reported explosions of the goggles while in use. The source said HUR purchased and rigged a large batch with explosives and a remote detonation function before "Russian volunteers" delivered them to Russian drone units. Calling it "well-deserved punishment," the source linked the operation to Russian war crimes. FPV drones have played a key role in Ukraine's drone warfare strategy. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–Ukraine’s Equation. Ukraine fears that a peace deal with Russia could set the stage for another invasion if Moscow is not convinced its war was a failure. The past week has worsened those concerns, with U.S. officials admitting Ukraine will not reclaim all its territory or join NATO and may not receive U.S. military protection after the war. These concessions shifted negotiations in Russia’s favor, reinforcing President Vladimir Putin’s belief that the invasion was worthwhile. Despite sanctions and heavy losses, Russia’s economy remains resilient, helped by China, while it still occupies 20% of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Ukraine alliance is unraveling, with President Donald Trump making public concessions to Russia and blaming Ukraine for the war. He has also tied U.S. aid to Ukrainian resource concessions. Ukraine must rely on Europe, but European leaders are divided on postwar security. This fracture emboldens Putin, raising fears of future aggression. New York Times

ANALYSIS–Team Trump wants to get rid of Zelensky. For all the turmoil, there is no deal to end Russia’s war. However, the situation is developing according to Ukraine’s worst-case scenario. President Donald Trump’s overtures toward Russia have alarmed Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky openly frustrated. After being excluded from Saudi-led talks, Zelensky canceled his trip, and Trump responded by calling him “a dictator.” Ukrainian officials fear that Trump wants to remove Zelensky, not just push for elections. Kyiv braces for potential U.S. aid cuts, Russian sanctions relief, and pressures to accept a ceasefire without security guarantees. Military exhaustion is mounting, with front-line units severely depleted. Ukrainians fear a Kremlin-imposed settlement could fracture the country, triggering a new wave of mass emigration and internal instability. Zelensky remains Ukraine’s most popular politician but faces declining trust. Some young Ukrainians, like 17-year-old Andriy Vasilyuk, see their future in the military. Zelensky may resist rather than accept a bad deal, relying on European allies and Ukraine’s resilience, setting up the nation for years of war ahead or at least until Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer in power. The Economist

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Feb. 19. Russian President Vladimir Putin is tailoring Russia’s negotiation delegation to match U.S. counterparts, likely aiming to maximize concessions from Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz reaffirmed Donald Trump’s stance that any resolution to the war in Ukraine must be fair, lasting, and acceptable to all involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine needs NATO membership or strong military guarantees for a sustainable peace. Russian regions are reportedly stopping the recruitment of foreign fighters who do not speak Russian for military service.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian troops advanced near Vovchansk and Toretsk, while Russian forces gained ground near Borova, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s Attack on Zelensky Signals New World Order Taking Shape. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy has rapidly reshaped America’s global stance, prioritizing transactional relationships over long-standing alliances. His administration has floated concessions to Russia, distanced itself from European allies, and blamed Ukraine for the war, aligning with Kremlin narratives. Trump has dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, halting aid programs and allowing China to expand its influence. His economic approach includes tariff increases, signaling a retreat from globalization. Trump’s rhetoric about acquiring foreign territories, such as Greenland and Panama, has shifted from provocative speculation to potential policy. While supporters argue he is forcing allies to take greater responsibility, critics warn he is eroding U.S. credibility. His stance on Gaza—proposing to remove Palestinians—marks a sharp departure from previous U.S. diplomacy. The rapid shifts have alarmed European allies, who now question America’s reliability. Trump’s foreign policy rejects post-World War II norms, favoring unilateral action and confrontation over multilateral cooperation. Wall Street Journal

Pentagon told to plan for drastic budget cuts. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered senior military leaders to plan to cut the defense budget by 8 percent a year over the next five years, The Washington Post reported Wednesday, citing an internal memo.   Hegseth wants the plans on his desk by Monday.  He exempted 17 categories from cuts, among them, operations at the southern U.S. border, modernization of nuclear weapons and missile defense, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and acquisition of submarines, one-way attack drones and other munitions. Robert G. Salesses, a senior Pentagon official, said money saved could be “realigned” to pay for President Donald Trump’s new priorities, such as the “Iron Dome for America”  missile defense system.  The Pentagon budget for 2025 is about $850 billion, with broad consensus on Capitol Hill that extensive spending is necessary to deter threats posed by China and Russia, in particular. Pentagon officials are also being told to submit names of thousands of probationary Defense Department employees to be fired.  Washington Post    Reuters   

France's Macron, UK's Starmer to visit Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Washington next week, U.S. national security advisor Mike Waltz said Wednesday.  Macron recently called for an emergency “informal” meeting with world leaders in Paris to discuss European security, after President Donald Trump excluded European representatives from his administration’s talks with Russian representatives in Riyadh about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump and Macron had a brief, “friendly” conversation just prior to the summit, POLITICO reported Monday.  British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also set to visit next week, Waltz said on Fox News. Starmer’s office confirmed the visit earlier this week.  Starmer telephoned Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky Wednesday and gave him his support “as Ukraine’s democratically elected leader,” The Guardian reported, quoting a Downing Street spokesperson. That person said Starmer said it was “perfectly reasonable to suspend elections during war time as the UK did during World War Two.” He was referring to President Trump’s criticism of Zelensky for postponing elections and Trump’s claim that Zelensky is a “dictator.”  Reuters  Politico  The Guardian   

Lawmakers call on Rubio to pursue renewal of New START nuclear pact with Moscow. Dozens of U.S. Democratic lawmakers have urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to cooperate with Congress on renewing the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia, which is set to expire on February 5, 2026. They stressed that despite tensions over the Ukraine war, arms control agreements have historically reduced the risk of nuclear conflict. The lawmakers said they see an opportunity for high-level negotiations and encouraged the Trump administration to engage in talks to extend the treaty and uphold its limits. They noted that while Moscow has agreed to abide by the treaty’s restrictions, a formal agreement is crucial to prevent a nuclear arms race. Rubio and other Trump officials recently met with Russian representatives in Riyadh for discussions on ending the Ukraine war, but it is unclear if New START was discussed. Lawmakers also requested a congressional briefing on the administration’s nuclear policy plans. Reuters 

Labor unions urge Trump to bolster American shipbuilding as China pursues dominance. The presidents of four major U.S. labor unions have urged President Donald Trump to strengthen American shipbuilding and enforce tariffs and penalties against China, citing its dominance in the industry as a threat to U.S. workers and national security. In a letter viewed by The Associated Press, the unions called for harsh penalties on Chinese-built vessels and policies to rebuild U.S. shipbuilding capacity. China produced over 1,000 ocean-going vessels in 2023, while the U.S. built fewer than 10, largely due to over $100 billion in Chinese government subsidies between 2010 and 2018. The Biden administration initiated a Section 301 investigation into China’s shipbuilding practices last year. Trump has prioritized trade tariffs and control of the Panama Canal but has focused more on condemning U.S. allies than on criticizing China. He recently acknowledged the decline of U.S. shipbuilding and stated that reviving the industry would be a key goal of his administration. Associated Press

Mexico’s Sheinbaum says her government requested Washington’s surveillance drone flights. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday confirmed that U.S. surveillance drone flights over Mexico are conducted in collaboration with and at the request of her government. These flights are reportedly part of a CIA program aimed at locating fentanyl labs in northwestern Mexico, as the Trump administration pressures its neighbor to combat drug cartels responsible for smuggling the synthetic opioid into the U.S. While Mexico’s Defense Secretary Ricardo Trevilla stated last week that U.S. military flights had not entered Mexican airspace but couldn’t confirm if they were spying, Sheinbaum clarified that the flights are part of longstanding security cooperation and that the gathered intelligence is shared with Mexican authorities. Associated Press Deutsche Welle   

U.S. designates Mexican cartels, Tren de Aragua and others as foreign terrorist organizations. The U.S. State Department is designating Tren de Aragua, Sinaloa Cartel and six other Latin American drug cartels and gangs as foreign terrorist organizations, according to a notice in the Federal Register posted Wednesday and scheduled to be published Thursday. The notice says these groups have threatened U.S. defense, international relations or economic interests. Many of these cartels — including Tren de Aragua and Sinaloa —  transnational drug traffickers responsible for smuggling  fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamines and other dangerous drugs into the U.S.  Some control human trafficking of migrants into the U.S. This designation allows the U.S. to impose financial sanctions on these groups and people connected to them, to declare members of these groups “inadmissible” to the U.S. and ineligible for immigration benefits. The  action follows up on a Jan. 20 executive order signed by President Donald Trump declaring that cartels and other international groups “constitute[d] a national security threat beyond that posed by traditional organized crime.”   NBC News  Politico  Associated Press 

Trump signs orders to deny migrants federal benefits.  President Trump signed an executive order Wednesday to eliminate federal benefits for undocumented migrants.  The impact was unclear:  undocumented immigrants are already ineligible for federal benefits, with exceptions allowed for emergency situations. The order also said that federal funds cannot be used by state or local "sanctuary" jurisdictions, according to the White House.  New York Times Reuters Associated Press    

SOUTHCOM head visits Panama to discuss security, Chinese influence over canal. Admiral Alvin Holsey, the head of the U.S. military's Southern Command, was scheduled to meet Panamanian officials Wednesday and Thursday to discuss security cooperation, the Panama Canal and migration. U.S. President Donald Trump has argued that China exercises too much influence over the canal.  Another issue is migrants: many migrants from Latin America pass through Panama on their way to the U.S. border. Reuters 

Migrants deported from U.S. to Panama moved to Darien jungle region. Nearly 100 migrants recently deported from the U.S. to Panama last week have been moved from a hotel in Panama City to the Darien jungle region. Panama's security ministry said of the 299 mostly Asian migrants deported from the U.S. in recent days, 13 had been repatriated to their countries of origin while another 175 remained in the hotel in anticipation of flights to their home countries. Migrants sent to Darien had refused to return home voluntarily and will be held there until third countries can be found to take them, the Associated Press reported.   Reuters  Associated Press  

Brazil’s embattled Bolsonaro blasts ‘vague’ accusations following indictment. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has rejected allegations that he orchestrated a coup attempt after his 2022 election defeat, calling the charges “vague” and describing them as a political attack by an “authoritarian regime” with a “lust for power.” Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro with planning to stay in power illegally, which allegedly included a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and kill a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro denied wrongdoing, comparing his legal troubles to opposition persecution in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. President Lula emphasized the presumption of innocence, stating that if proven guilty, Bolsonaro and the other accused will face justice. Legal experts affirm the charges are evidence-based and legally sound despite Bolsonaro’s claims of political persecution. Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle  

As violence soars, Ecuador takes steps to gain foreign military help in battling drug cartels.  Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on February 19 ordered the foreign ministry to seek military cooperation agreements with allied nations to counter the rise of drug cartels and organized crime. He also urged Ecuador’s National Assembly to support the initiative. The statement did not specify which countries Ecuador would seek assistance from. The surge in violent crime is linked to cocaine trafficking from Colombia and Peru, with Mexican, Colombian, and Balkan cartels working alongside local gangs. While Ecuador’s homicide rate has slightly dropped under Noboa, it remains significantly higher than in 2019, and January 2024 was the deadliest month on record, with a shocking 731 homicides. Noboa previously sought a constitutional reform to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, which the Constitutional Court approved, pending legislative debate and a referendum. For years, the U.S.  operated a military base in Ecuador for anti-narcotics operations, but it was shut down in 2009 due to sovereignty concerns. Security experts believe the foreign military support would be focused on intelligence gathering and maritime drug interdictions, rather than direct combat. Associated Press

EUROPE

Next Likely Chancellor Promises a Tougher Germany. Friedrich Merz, likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, is preparing for a more assertive foreign policy amid strained transatlantic ties. He sees a rupture with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, questioning Washington’s reliability and pushing for greater European security independence. Merz has vowed stronger support for Ukraine, including sending Taurus missiles, and a tougher stance on China. However, coalition politics could temper his ambitions, especially if the dovish Social Democrats control the foreign ministry. While advocating for German leadership in Europe, his ability to enact major policy shifts will depend on economic constraints and managing Trump’s unpredictable approach. New York Times

On NATO's eastern flank, US policy shift stokes security fears. President Donald Trump’s shift in U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine is unsettling NATO’s eastern flank, where many fear a resurgence of Russian domination. In Poland, 48-year-old Katarzyna Paprota said she once felt secure after NATO and European Union membership but now fears instability. Trump’s recent comments blaming Ukraine for the war while warming to Russia have alarmed central and eastern Europeans. Polish veteran Henryk Marut called Trump's rhetoric “too much,” recalling past Soviet rule over Poland. In Latvia, 84-year-old Silvija Spriedniece likened President Vladimir Putin to past aggressors, while 73-year-old Imants Robeznieks worried about European inaction. Many fear that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he could invade further. Reuters

NATO holds large-scale combat drills.  NATO members held their largest combat exercises of 2025 on Wednesday, training in Romania to deploy large-scale forces rapidly as doubts grow about U.S. action in case of an attack. The drills in Romania, involving about 10,000 military personnel from nine nations as part of NATO’s new Allied Reaction Force, come as  European leaders try to set a new course for their security, given Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s declaration at the Munich Security Conference that U.S. security priorities lie elsewhere.  Hegseth demanded that NATO allies dramatically ramp up military spending. Associated Press 

EU considers tapping €93 billion in unspent Covid recovery funds for defense. The European Union is considering using €93 billion in unspent pandemic recovery funds to boost defense spending. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen raised the idea as the bloc seeks to strengthen its military capabilities. The bloc’s additional financing needs for defense are estimated at €500 billion over the next decade. Other options include repurposing regional development funds and creating a defense financing mechanism involving the UK and Norway. The move comes as the U.S. signals it may scale back its security role in Europe. Changing the fund’s rules would require approval from most EU countries and the European Parliament. Some EU officials also propose easing budget rules to allow higher national defense spending. Financial Times

Denmark Boosts Arms Spending Over 70% After Trump Scolds Europe. Denmark is increasing its military budget by $7 billion over two years, pushing defense spending above 3% of GDP. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said rapid procurement is necessary due to rising threats from Russia. The decision follows President Donald Trump’s pressure on NATO allies to increase military contributions and his efforts to negotiate directly with Moscow. Historically a strong contributor to Ukraine’s defense, Denmark has seen its own forces depleted and aims to rebuild its air defense and naval capabilities. The investment will push Denmark’s fiscal balance into deficit by 2026. Denmark's move signals a broader European shift toward military self-reliance amid uncertainty over U.S. commitments. The Arctic is also a factor in Copenhagen’s strategy, as Trump’s interest in Greenland has renewed focus on securing the region. The Danish government hopes its increased defense spending will strengthen ties with Washington while bolstering European security. Wall Street Journal Reuters

US-Russia talks are 'the last warning for Europe,' Gabrielius Landsbergis says. Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s former foreign minister, warns that recent U.S.-Russia discussions signal a final wake-up call. If Europe “doesn't wake up, we might have to declare it dead. If there's ever a last warning, it is now,” Landsbergis said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent. He criticized the Trump administration’s approach, including rejecting Ukraine’s NATO membership and deeming its pre-2014 borders “unrealistic.” Landsbergis argues that Europe must accelerate Ukraine’s integration with the European Union and its supply of weapons while considering the deployment of European troops. If NATO remains unattainable for Ukraine, he urges alternative military commitments. Without decisive action, he warns, Ukraine could be left isolated under a Minsk-style ceasefire, setting the stage for further Russian aggression. “What we need is leadership,” he said. Kyiv Independent

Suspected shadow fleet vessels damaged by blasts in recent weeks.  Three oil tankers have been damaged by blasts in the last month in separate incidents around the Mediterranean, and another suffered a mysterious explosion in Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga.  The Greek-operated crude oil tanker Seajewel suffered two explosions while at  Savona-Vado port in northern Italy on Saturday. Italian prosecutors have opened an investigation.  The vessel is suspected to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet. Ukraine’s news agency reported that the Seajewel had transported Russian oil on at least three occasions, The Maritime Executive, a shipping industry publication, reported.  In early February, the tanker Koala, flagged in Barbuda suffered three explosions in or near the engine room while loading a cargo of Russian heavy fuel oil at the port of Ust-Luga.  According to The Maritime Executive, maritime security consultancy Ambrey Intelligence, the tanker was likely hit by limpet mines.  The crude oil tanker Seacharm was damaged by a blast off the Turkish port of Ceyhan in late January. The Liberia-flagged chemical and products tanker Grace Ferrum was damaged off Libya in February.  These incidents, while not classified as sabotage, have raised alarms among shipping industry officials in Europe.  Reuters  Maritime Executive  Maritime Executive 

In Russia, dozens of dissenters are held as psychiatric patients. Russia has revived punitive psychiatry to silence dissent, particularly against its war on Ukraine. Since the full-scale invasion, human rights groups have documented a sharp increase in politically motivated psychiatric detentions, echoing Soviet-era repression. At least 48 individuals are currently held, with charges often linked to anti-war speech. Journalist Yekaterina Fatyanova was forcibly hospitalized after publishing an article criticizing Russia’s war motives. She endured invasive medical procedures before being sentenced to forced labor. Activist Olga Suvorova faced similar treatment after opposing environmental policies and was diagnosed with a “fixation on helping others.” Experts warn Russia’s courts use psychiatry to discredit opposition. This method, once a hallmark of Soviet control, is now part of Russia’s broader crackdown on war critics, reinforcing state narratives and punishing those who challenge the Kremlin’s justification for its aggression against Ukraine. Reuters

Austrian authorities arrest teenager who apparently planned an attack at a railway station.  Austrian authorities arrested a 14-year-old in Vienna on February 10 for allegedly planning an attack at the Westbahnhof railway station. The Austrian Turkish boy was radicalized online and posted extremist content on TikTok. Investigators found knives, Islamic extremist books, attack sketches, and bomb-making instructions at his home. Additional bomb materials were discovered in his building’s basement. The suspect refused to testify. His arrest follows a fatal stabbing in Austria by a 23-year-old Syrian with possible Islamic State ties. Associated Press 

US displaced China as Germany’s biggest single trading partner last year. The U.S. overtook China as Germany’s top trading partner in 2024, with trade reaching €252.8 billion, while German trade with China fell 3.1% to €246.3 billion. Germany’s exports to the U.S. rose 2.2%, widening its trade surplus to €70 billion, while imports from the U.S. declined. Meanwhile, German exports to China dropped 7.6%. With Germany’s economy contracting for two years, addressing trade challenges will be a priority for the next government after Sunday’s election. Associated Press 

Opinion:  Europe’s dependence on US tech risk European security.  Tech companies have offered support for President Donald Trump have aligned themselves as anti-European forces.  European leaders should treat Silicon Valley giants as adversaries and reduce Europe’s dependency on US tech.   Financial Times 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Thanks to Trump, Saudi Arabia Gets a Big Week in International Diplomacy. Saudi Arabia has reasserted itself as a key diplomatic power under President Donald Trump’s second term, hosting U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine and an Arab summit to counter Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Trump’s envoys, emphasizing Saudi Arabia’s role in global decision-making. Trump’s alignment with Riyadh strengthens their ties, though his Gaza plan threatens Saudi ambitions for a U.S. defense pact and Israeli normalization. Meanwhile, Saudi neutrality in the Ukraine war has positioned it as a broker, but tensions remain over its future relationship with Washington under Trump’s evolving foreign policy. New York Times

Trump administration freezes funds to Palestinian security forces. The Trump administration has frozen all funding to Palestinian Authority security forces as part of a broader halt on foreign assistance. The move comes as the authority struggles to maintain control in the West Bank and position itself for governance in postwar Gaza. While U.S. funding previously supported security training, Israeli sources claim the freeze will not significantly affect operations. The halt has already led to canceled training and delayed assessments of militant crackdowns. Washington has not clarified when or if aid will resume. Washington Post Reuters  

Hamas returns bodies of Bibas family.  Hamas Thursday returned to Israel the bodies of Israeli hostages Shiri Bibas and her two sons Ariel and baby Kfir, ages four and nine months at the time they were kidnapped from the Nir Oz kibbutz.  The Bibas family has become a symbol for Israelis of the ruthlessness of the October 7, 2023, attack. When Hamas freed other women and children during a truce in late November 2023, Shiri and the children weren’t among them.  Hamas claimed they had been killed in an Israeli airstrike, but the Israeli government couldn’t confirm that. Shiri's husband, Yarden Bibas, was kidnapped from the kibbutz and held separately from his wife and sons. He was released Feb. 1 as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. A fourth body, of hostage Oded Lifschitz, 83 when abducted, was also returned. The militants displayed four black coffins on a stage in the Gaza Strip surrounded by banners, including a large one depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a vampire. Thousands of Gazans, including masked and armed militants, watched as four black coffins were displayed on a stage surrounded by banners, including a large banner depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a vampire.  The coffins were then loaded onto Red Cross vehicles and driven to Israeli forces. “Our hearts — the hearts of an entire nation — lie in tatters,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a statement. “On behalf of the State of Israel, I bow my head and ask for forgiveness. Forgiveness for not protecting you on that terrible day. Forgiveness for not bringing you home safely.”  Hamas has promised to release six living hostages Saturday, in exchange for hundreds more Palestinians, expected to be women and children.  Reuters  Reuters  Associated Press

Three Palestinians killed by Israeli military in West Bank refugee camp.  Israeli forces killed three Palestinians Wednesday in the al-Faraa camp near Tubas in the occupied West Bank, Reuters reported, citing an Israeli army statement.  The Israeli statement said the three people were "wanted terrorists who sold weapons for terror purposes.” Two other individuals were detained.  Reuters

Egypt says Gaza should be rebuilt without displacing Palestinians. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged the international community to rebuild Gaza without displacing Palestinians, rejecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Gaza’s population and redevelop the enclave. Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states oppose the plan and are seeking alternatives. Sisi emphasized the essential role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), as Israel banned its operations in parts of its territory. The United Arab Emirates also rejected displacement. Arab leaders will discuss the issue in Riyadh before presenting it at an Arab League summit in March. Reuters 

Yemeni minister calls for arrest of Houthi officials attending Hezbollah chief Nasrallah's funeral. Yemeni Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani called for the arrest of Houthi leaders reportedly attending Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral in Beirut on Feb. 23. He urged Lebanon to hand them over to Yemen’s internationally recognized government, alleging they are using the funeral as cover to coordinate with Iran-backed groups after Israeli strikes. The Houthis, who control northern Yemen, have launched over 100 attacks on ships since November 2023, disrupting global trade amid their broader military operations. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. set to cut China-based diplomats amid efforts to trim down size of mission by 10%. The U.S. is planning to reduce its diplomatic mission in China by up to 10%, affecting embassies and consulates in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Wuhan, and Hong Kong. Both American diplomats and local employees may be laid off, with notices expected as early as Friday. This marks the largest downsizing of U.S. diplomatic staff in China since the formation of official diplomatic relations in 1979. The move is part of President Donald Trump’s broader government downsizing efforts, which have already led to layoffs at the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. The White House’s “workforce optimization agenda” aims to align U.S. foreign policy with Trump’s “America First” doctrine, and failure to comply could result in disciplinary action. Trump has appointed David Perdue, a businessman and former Republican senator, as the next U.S. ambassador to China. Meanwhile, Sarah Beran has taken over as deputy chief of mission in Beijing, and Gregory May is nearing the end of his term as U.S. consul general in Hong Kong. South China Morning Post Reuters

U.S. makes significant changes to State Department webpage on China. The U.S. State Department has revised its China-related content on its website, stressing economic tensions while scrapping references to cooperation with allies and U.S. assistance on cultural and environmental issues. The changes, which reflect President Donald Trump’s harder stance on China, highlight the trade deficit and concerns over cyber threats, as well as make accusations of unfair trade practices. The updated language criticizes China for having "one of the most restrictive investment climates in the world," and denounces forced labor practices and state subsidies, which the U.S. claims put “American businesses at a disadvantage.” Additionally, the revisions focus on countering Chinese cyber activities against U.S. government and infrastructure, as well as preventing Beijing from acquiring American technology for military purposes. The new text also accuses the Chinese Communist Party of manipulating international organizations such as the U.N. by installing party members in leadership roles. Past references to working closely with allies have been removed in favor of language emphasizing reciprocity and fairness in U.S.-China relations. Another key change is the State Department’s decision to drop the term “People’s Republic of China (PRC)” in favor of simply “China,” which some experts interpret as a sign that Washington may be acknowledging the Asian power’s current political system as permanent. China has condemned the changes, calling them distortions of fact, slander, and an attempt to escalate strategic competition. Reuters Nikkei Asia 

Trump anticipates visit by Chinese President Xi. President Donald Trump has stated that he expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit the United States, though he did not provide a timeline. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Wednesday, he also suggested the possibility of a new U.S.-China trade deal. Trump and Xi have spoken since Trump took office on January 20, discussing TikTok, trade, and Taiwan. The U.S. is currently negotiating the sale of TikTok, owned by Chinese firm ByteDance. U.S.-China relations remain tense over trade tariffs, cybersecurity, the Taiwan issue, Hong Kong, human rights, and COVID-19. Xi last visited the U.S. in November 2023 for a summit with then-President Joe Biden, which led to agreements on military communication and fentanyl production. Reuters Bloomberg

Australian, New Zealand militaries monitoring trio of Chinese warships transiting off Australian coast. The militaries of Australia and New Zealand were monitoring three Chinese warships on Thursday, as the vessels moved uncommonly far south near the eastern Australian coast on an unclear mission. The naval frigate Hengyang, cruiser Zunyi, and replenishment vessel Weishanhu traveled through Southeast Asia and the Coral Sea over the last week before approaching Australia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). While China has not disclosed the purpose of the mission, Canberra and Wellington tracked the warships by air and sea. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles acknowledged the unusual nature of the deployment but emphasized that the ships are operating within international law. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reiterated that his country is observing their movements closely. Security experts suggest the deployment is part of China’s broader strategy to project naval power in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The timing coincides with a visit by the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to Australia, though experts believe this is likely coincidental. Tensions between Australia and China’s militaries remain high, despite improved diplomatic and trade relations. Recently, Canberra accused Beijing of conducting an unsafe aerial interaction in the South China Sea. Associated Press Reuters Bloomberg

Foreign spies seeking AUKUS secrets, Australia intelligence chief says. Australian intelligence chief Mike Burgess warned of increasing espionage, sabotage, and terrorism threats, with foreign spies targeting Australian-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) nuclear submarine secrets and Australian military personnel. Some were given gifts containing surveillance devices. Cyber units from at least one nation are mapping critical infrastructure for potential sabotage. Terrorism remains a concern, with most disrupted plots involving minors. Antisemitic violence is rising, and foreign actors are spreading election disinformation. Burgess urged vigilance, stating Australia is facing "everything, everywhere, all at once" until 2030 but emphasized resilience against these threats. Reuters The Guardian

North Korea takes aim at U.S. over AUKUS. North Korea has condemned the U.S.-Australia nuclear submarine deal under the AUKUS partnership, describing it as a “threat to regional peace.” In a KCNA commentary on Thursday, Pyongyang warned that Washington’s nuclear alliances, including AUKUS and trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan, could have serious consequences. Canberra recently made a $500 million payment as part of its $3 billion commitment to the U.S. submarine industry under AUKUS. The deal includes the purchase of Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S. in the early 2030s. North Korea accused Washington of using its military alliances to pursue regional hegemony and warned that nuclear states would not remain passive. Pyongyang has repeatedly criticized the U.S.-South Korea-Japan partnership, calling it an “Asian version of NATO.” In response to the North’s threats, South Korea and the U.S. conducted a joint air drill, featuring at least one B-1B strategic bomber, as a demonstration of extended deterrence against Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile program. Reuters Yonhap News Agency 

South Korea's impeached Yoon attends first criminal trial hearing. Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on February 20 appeared in court for the first preliminary hearing of his criminal trial on insurrection charges, making him the country's first sitting president to face criminal prosecution. Yoon was indicted last month for his failed martial law attempt, a charge that overrides his presidential immunity. If convicted, he could face life imprisonment or the death penalty. The preliminary hearing at Seoul Central District Court lasted just 13 minutes, with another scheduled for March 24. Yoon, who has been detained since mid-January, requested his release, arguing his detention period had expired before his indictment and that his martial law declaration was legal. Prosecutors countered that his detention was lawful and warned of the risks of evidence tampering if he were freed. The court gave both sides 10 days to submit further arguments. Outside the courthouse, about 500 of Yoon’s supporters rallied for his release, while 3,200 police officers were deployed for crowd control. Yoon remained silent throughout the hearing. Yonhap News Agency Reuters Associated Press 

Australia, Papua New Guinea launch discussions on full defense treaty. Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) on Thursday announced plans to negotiate a full defense treaty, aiming to strengthen military cooperation between the two nations. While they already have a defense cooperation agreement, the new treaty would enhance integration and interoperability between their armed forces, according to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles. The initiative comes as China seeks to expand its influence in PNG, prompting Australia to deepen its strategic ties with its close neighbor. PNG’s Defense Minister Billy Joseph emphasized the strong bond between the two nations, describing their relationship as “tied to the hips,” and uniquely close. The treaty is part of a broader series of agreements Canberra has signed or plans to sign with PNG. Reuters VOA  

AFRICA

Congo has requested military assistance from Chad amid struggle with rebels. The Democratic Republic of Congo has requested military support from Chad to combat the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel insurgency in its eastern provinces. This week, Congo’s Minister of Regional Integration met with Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno to discuss the matter, though details of the talks remain undisclosed. A Chadian official confirmed that Chad is considering the request but has not yet decided. A Congolese presidency source stated on Wednesday that both military and diplomatic support were requested. Neither government has provided further details, and Chad’s Foreign Affairs Minister previously dismissed the idea of sending troops as "pure speculation." Reuters

Rebels in volatile Congo expand advance to shared border of Burundi. The U.N. announced on Wednesday that M23 rebels have advanced towards the south in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), reaching the Burundi border and raising fears of a regional war. M23 fighters, along with Rwandan troops, have captured Goma and Bukavu, overpowering Congolese forces, allied militias, U.N. peacekeepers, and Burundian troops. At an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting, Congo’s Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner accused Rwanda of attempting to overthrow the Congolese government and demanded sanctions, calling M23 “a political project.” However, Rwanda's President Paul Kagame denied involvement, insisting his priority is national security. The M23 claims it is fighting to protect Tutsis and Rwandan-language speakers in Congo against the Hutu rebel group FDLR, which was linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The U.N. special envoy to the Great Lakes region of Africa expressed uncertainty surrounding Kigali’s motives, saying “we are not aware of the intricacies of the M23 agenda,” the “intention of their backers,” or “how far they will go or why.” The U.N. Security Council remains divided on whether to officially condemn Rwanda, while Western nations, including the U.S. and the UK, are considering sanctions. Meanwhile, tensions between Burundi and Rwanda are escalating, with both countries accusing each other of supporting rival rebel groups. Burundi has called for urgent international intervention to prevent a broader war with consequences for the entire African continent. Bloomberg Associated Press 

Congolese rebel offensive triggers panic, chaos in border town of Uvira. Reports that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels penetrated the eastern Congolese town of Kamanyola on Tuesday sparked panic and chaos 50 miles south in Uvira, a town that shares a lake border with Burundi. Intense clashes erupted in Uvira on Wednesday, as Congolese government troops (FARDC) and their supposed allies, the Wazalendo militia, began to fight, leading to widespread confusion, looting, and heavy casualties. Reports describe bodies in the streets, overwhelmed hospitals with scores of injured people, and the retreat of government soldiers who have fled across Lake Tanganyika in commandeered boats. The fall of Bukavu, a key provincial capital, has deepened fears of a wider conflict, while M23’s rapid expansion into valuable mining areas threatens further destabilization. Amid the unrest, over 500 Congolese police officers fled to Burundi, where they were disarmed, and Uvira’s prison was emptied, releasing both criminals and deserting soldiers back into the streets. Gunfire and armed looting forced Doctors Without Borders (MSF) to limit its staff. Congo is struggling to muster a defense, especially following the reported withdrawal of Burundian troops—a claim Burundi denies. Meanwhile, fighting has also escalated in North Kivu province, with reports of soldiers abandoning their positions, further worsening security concerns. Reuters 

White House’s Rubio speaks to Angola about mounting violence in Congo’s east. The U.S. State Department has said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo with Angolan Foreign Minister Tete Antonio, underscoring Angola’s role in the Luanda Process, is a diplomatic initiative aimed at settling the violence and calming tensions. Reuters U.S. Department of State 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will not attend G20 meeting in South Africa. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will skip next week’s G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Cape Town, South Africa, citing “obligations in Washington.” A senior official will attend in his place. His absence is unusual, as Washington typically plays a key role in G20 economic agreements. Speculation surrounds Bessent’s absence, with some reports linking it to a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war. The White House has not commented on the matter. Tensions between the U.S. and South Africa have increased after Trump criticized Pretoria’s land policies, claiming certain groups are being mistreated. In response, the U.S. has announced plans to resettle white South African farmers as refugees. This led to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceling his G20 trip to Johannesburg. Experts, including a former U.S. Treasury official, have lamented Bessent’s absence, calling it a missed opportunity to engage in key bilateral economic discussions with global leaders, including China. New York Times Reuters 

The white South African farmers that Trump wants to protect would be the first affected by death of trade bill. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to sever aid to South Africa over its land reform policies has raised concerns that the Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to U.S. markets, may also be revoked. AGOA accounts for a quarter of South Africa’s $15 billion trade with the U.S., primarily benefiting agricultural exports such as wine, citrus, soybeans, and beef. While South Africa does not track racial data on exporters, white farmers are believed to have significant exposure to the American market, and just a tenth of farm output is from Black farmers. Pretoria exports $450 million in agricultural products to the U.S. annually. If AGOA is revoked, farmers may struggle to find alternative markets, as many are already saturated. Some Republican lawmakers are pushing to remove South Africa from AGOA due to its land expropriation law, the genocide case against Israel, and its naval exercises with Russia and China. Trump has criticized the nation’s land policy, which allows land expropriation without compensation in limited cases, arguing that it harms white farmers, particularly Afrikaners. While South Africa’s Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola warned that cutting AGOA would mainly hurt white farmers, Afrikaner lobbyists, who have long advocated against land reform, welcomed the pressure on the government. Reuters 

Barrick Gold comes to an agreement with Mali’s ruling junta to close mining dispute. After a nearly two-year-old saga of spats and setbacks, Canadian mining company Barrick Gold has signed a new agreement with Mali’s government to resolve the dispute over its mining assets. The deal, awaiting formal approval from Mali, involves Barrick paying $438 million in exchange for the return seized gold, detained employees, and the restart of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. The conflict began in 2023 over Mali’s new mining code, which grants the government a greater share in mining profits. The dispute resulted in a halt in operations, seriously impacting Barrick’s gold output. The closure also caused financial losses for both Barrick and Mali, which had been receiving significant tax revenues from the miner. Mali's military government has been tightening control over its gold and uranium resources, using legal measures and disputes to increase state revenues, while also strengthening ties with Russia. While some Western miners reached quick settlements, others, including Barrick, faced prolonged negotiations and legal action. It remains unclear whether Barrick will drop its arbitration case against Mali following this agreement. The nation’s gold production declined by 23% in 2024, further highlighting the importance of resolving such disputes. Reuters Bloomberg Financial Post  

Suspected Somali pirates seize a new Yemeni fishing boat in second recent attack. Suspected Somali pirates seized a Yemeni fishing boat off the Horn of Africa. The attack, which targeted a traditional dhow near Eyl, Somalia, on Monday, is under investigation. It follows a similar incident 10 days earlier, where pirates ultimately fled. Somali piracy peaked in 2011, costing the global economy $7 billion. Increased naval patrols and a stronger Somali government had reduced the threat, but recent attacks suggest a possible resurgence. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Microsoft announces chip breakthrough that could accelerate path to quantum computing.  Microsoft has unveiled a new chip that it claims brings the era of quantum computing closer than many have projected.  The biggest challenge of quantum computers is that the qubit, a fundamental building block, is incredibly fast but also difficult to control and prone to errors.  Microsoft said the Majorana 1 chip is less prone to these errors than rivals, with the company’s claims backed by a scientific paper published in Nature, an academic journal.  Microsoft created the Majorana 1 chip with indium arsenide and aluminum. The device uses a superconducting nanowire to observe particles and can be controlled with standard computing equipment.  Microsoft did not provide a timeline for the chip’s use in the creation of quantum computers, but said in a blog post that point was "years, not decades" away.  The Microsoft achievement reportedly could reshape the technological landscape. In addition to accelerating progress in multiple technological and scientific disciplines, a quantum computer could be powerful enough to break the encryption that protects national secrets.  Microsoft executive Jason Zander described Majorana 1 as a "high risk, high reward" strategy.  Reuters   New York Times

Russian hackers targeting Signal messaging app used by Ukrainian military. Google researchers report that Russia-linked hacking groups have penetrated the Signal messenger accounts of some Ukrainian military officials in an effort to access sensitive communications.  The hackers have devised ways to couple their own devices to targeted accounts through manipulation of Signal’s “linked devices” service.  Google uncovered connections between Russian military intelligence (GRU)-linked hackers and Russian frontline units in exploiting Signal-equipped devices captured on the battlefield.  The hackers also have duped Ukrainian targets into scanning malicious QR codes that can link a targeted account to a hacker interface, delivering future messages to both devices.  Google also reported that the Russian threat actors UNC4221 and UNC5792 have sent bogus Signal "group invite" links and codes to Ukrainian military personnel.  The Google report did not indicate that Signal’s encryption protocol was vulnerable, but that the “linked devices” feature could be abused.  Josh Lund, a Signal senior technologist, said several changes have been made to the app " to help raise awareness and protect users from the types of social engineering attacks that the report describes."  The app user interface has been redesigned to introduce additional authentication steps and send notifications for new linked devices.  Dan Black, a Google-Mandiant cyber espionage researcher, warned that attempted compromises of the Signal app could expand beyond Ukraine and “proliferate to additional threat actors and regions outside the Ukrainian theater of war.”  Politico   Wired   The Record   Cybernews   BleepingComputer

Palo Alto urges client patch as hacker exploitation of firewall vulnerability continues. The Palo Alto Networks cybersecurity firm reports that hackers are exploiting an additional vulnerability in its firewall software that can allow breaches of unpatched customer networks.  A firewall vulnerability discovered earlier this month – and for which Palo Alto advised urgent customer patches — has been found to still be under active attack.  The vulnerability is appearing in PAN-OS, the operating system for Palo Alto firewalls.  GreyNoise, a threat intelligence startup, posted online that it has observed the PAN-OS vulnerability being exploited by 25 IP addresses with the highest levels of attack traffic occurring in the U.S., Germany, and the Netherlands.   GreyNoise noted that the “high-severity flaw allows unauthenticated attackers to execute specific PHP scripts, potentially leading to unauthorized access to vulnerable systems.”  The hackers’ identities have not been discovered, and it has not been determined if sensitive customer data has been exfiltrated.  TechCrunch   BleepingComputer

Cybersecurity annual report identifies edge devices as favorite hacking target in 2024.  An annual threat report issued by the Darktrace cybersecurity firm says that edge devices with zero-day and n-day vulnerabilities were targets of the “most consequential” cyberattacks in 2024.  The most frequent exploitation of vulnerabilities occurred in Ivanti Connect Secure and Ivanti Policy Secure products, along with Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks firewall applications.  The Darktrace report specified that security hardware and services were involved in four of the six most commonly exploited vulnerabilities.  Nathaniel Jones, Darktrace vice president of threat research, said “these devices sit on the edge of your network, and that’s your last sight of visibility and therefore the door to your house.”  Darktrace’s assessment, which is similar to conclusions drawn by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), is that threat actors are investing additional resources to study and reverse engineer widely used network edge devices.  While nation-state hackers are responsible for most zero-day attacks on edge devices, lingering vulnerabilities are subsequently exploited by financially motivated groups.  In the first half of 2024, 40 percent of Darktrace-monitored malicious activity involved the exploitation of internet-facing devices while data-stealing malware became the most prominent activity in the remaining months of the year.  CyberScoop

Chinese tech firms capitalizing on stock market surge triggered by DeepSeek. Chinese tech firms are beginning to capitalize on the stock market rally triggered by AI startup DeepSeek’s sudden success. Two firms, chipmaker Black Sesame International Holding and XtalPi Holdings, an AI drug discovery company, were poised to raise a combined $429 million from share placements to advance R&D and business expansion.  According to Bloomberg, the investment climate for the Chinese tech sector “has turned notably friendlier” in the wake of the stock market surge related to DeepSeek’s AI model breakthrough.  The investor mood was also improved by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s supportive meeting with the leaders of China’s largest tech firms.  Steve Chow, an analyst at ABCI Securities Co., said “in the past few years, capital markets weren’t too positive.  In the past they might not have had the chance to raise money, and now the window’s opened.” Data compiled by Bloomberg indicates that so far this year listed Chinese companies have raised more than $1 billion globally through placements.  Bloomberg

Israeli military operations in Gaza, Lebanon rely on AI tech provided by U.S. firms. An AP investigation of Israeli military use of AI-enabled weaponry and surveillance technology has discovered that combat operations in Gaza and Lebanon have been enhanced, although civilian deaths have soared in those conflict zones.  Examples of the improvements in Israeli tactical operations are seen in the military’s use of AI-powered systems to analyze massive intelligence data, decipher intercepted communications, and surveil communities for signs of suspicious behavior or to track known militants.  These applications surged after the Hamas attack in October 2023 especially in the use of Microsoft and OpenAI technology.  In an AP review of internal records of those firms, it was discovered that AI usage spiked to 200 times higher than before the October 7 attack.  Military usage of Microsoft’s computer servers also rose by almost two-thirds in the first two months of the war alone.  Heidy Khlaaf, a former senior OpenAI safety engineer, said “this is the first confirmation we have gotten that commercial AI models are directly being used in warfare.”  An Israeli military spokesperson told the AP that the AI assets “make the intelligence process more accurate and more effective,” adding that “⁠many times in this war they’ve been able to minimize civilian casualties.”  In addition to Microsoft and OpenAI, Google and Amazon provide cloud computing and AI services to Israel’s military under a $1.2 billion “Project Nimbus” contract signed in 2021.  Associated Press

Palantir CEO urges tech sector to help defend U.S. against coming AI-driven conflict.  Palantir CEO Alex Karp has co-authored a new book, “Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West,” that depicts a coming era of AI-driven warfare featuring “swarms of autonomous robots” as geopolitical rivalries intensify.  Karp, and co-author Nicholas Zamiska, a Palantir executive, warn that the U.S. must decide now “who we are and what we aspire to be, as a society and a civilization.”  Central to the book’s theme is the call for Silicon Valley to collaborate with Washington to reinforce U.S. defenses.  The book is divided into four sections, culminating in an appeal for the U.S. to rebuild “the technological republic” through engagement with tech leaders and innovators for the benefit of the national interest.   Karp believes the tech sector has a debt to the nation that made their successes possible:  “The wunderkinder of Silicon Valley—their fortunes, business empires, and, more fundamentally, entire sense of self—exist because of the nation that in many cases made their rise possible.”  Bloomberg   Wall Street Journal

Ukraine military envisions frontline zone dominated by surveillance, attack drones. Ukrainian government sources say the country envisions a battlefield frontline 15 kilometers in depth that will create a “drones-only” kill zone.  The “Drone Line” project announced by the Defense Ministry earlier in February has two key goals – to create a continuous reconnaissance capability for the zone, and to support and coordinate infantry unit operations by establishing a buffer area where no troop movements will go undetected. Mykyta Rozhkov, chief managing officer of Frontline, a Ukrainian robotics engineering company, said the technical specifications for the zone align with Kyiv’s capability plans for unmanned systems.  Rozhkov explained that “this range allows for effective recon and engagement of enemy forces before they can pose a direct threat to Ukrainian positions.”  Valerii Iakovenko, the founder of DroneUA, posted online that Ukrainian firms can produce 2500 heavy drones each month and 4,000 small drones daily.  Defense News

Former OpenAI technology chief forms new AI startup with other ChatGPT veterans. Mira Murati, the former OpenAI chief technology officer, is working with other OpenAI veterans to launch a new AI startup, called Thinking Machines Lab (TML).  The concept for the new firm is to develop AI models and products that promote “human-AI collaboration” in multiple fields.  A company announcement explained that “while current systems excel at programming and mathematics, we’re building AI that can adapt to the full spectrum of human expertise and enable a broader spectrum of applications.”  The TML team includes John Schulman, an OpenAI co-founder who will serve as chief scientist, Barret Zoph, OpenAI’s former vice president of research and the new startup’s CTO, and Lilian Weng, OpenAI’s former vice president of safety.  Sources report that Murati has been in talks with venture capital firms about a funding round reportedly reaching $1 billion.  A TML blog post “instead of focusing solely on making fully autonomous AI systems, we are excited to build multimodal systems that work with people collaboratively.”  In a post on X, Murati said: “We're building three things: helping people adapt AI systems to work for their specific needs; developing strong foundations to build more capable AI systems; and fostering a culture of open science that helps the whole field understand and improve these systems.  Our goal is simple, advance AI by making it broadly useful and understandable through solid foundations, open science, and practical applications.”  Bloomberg   TechCrunch   Wired

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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