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Wednesday, February 2, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the America

US Announces Deal For Expanded Access to Philippine Bases.  The US and the Philippines have reached a deal that expands US access to military bases in the country according to officials from both countries.  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called the announcement “a big deal” at a news conference with his Philippine counterpart.  Details of the agreement include US military access at four new locations, and a commitment by both countries to complete five existing projects.  The deal is part of the existing Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement signed in 2014 which allows the US to rotate military forces into the Philippines for long durations and to build and maintain buildings on bases.  A Philippine military analyst says the move will spur greater cooperation between the US and Philippine in responding to what he described as harassment by China of Filipino activity inside of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman criticized the move as a “zero sum, cold war mentality” and said the deal will escalate tensions in the region.  Bloomberg BBC

Justice Department Finds No Classified Documents in FBI Search of Biden’s Beach House.  The US Department of Justice and the FBI conducted a search for classified documents at President Joe Biden’s beach house in Delaware.  Biden’s attorney’s say the FBI did not find any classified records but did take some materials and handwritten notes for further review.  Biden’s lawyers said he agreed to the search as part of an inquiry into classified documents that were found at two other locations and are related to Biden’s time as Vice-President under President Barack Obama. Wall Street Journal  Reuters

US Investors Invested $40 billion in funding over 6 years for Chinese Artificial Intelligence Companies.  The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University is out with a new report that examines the outflow of US investments into Chinese Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies and provides recommendations for policy makers who, the report says are “increasingly concerned about the national security implications of investments in China”.  The report, citing data from investment website Crunchbase, says that between 2015-2021 167 US investors participated in 401 investment transactions in China, representing 17% of global investments into Chinese AI companies.  Notably, the CSET report says that the US government is not currently able to effectively “monitor, measure or regulate” US outbound investment flows into China.  This comes as media reports say the Biden administration is expected to announce a new executive order this year that will seek to limit US investments into Chinese tech firms.  CSET South China Morning Post 

Afghan Refugees Journey Through Latin America to Reach the US.  Reuters is out with a report that examines the increasing number of Afghans fleeing Taliban rule and taking perilous journeys through at least 11 countries in Latin America to reach the US.  Reuters interviewed a dozen Afghans who made the journey.  All of them said they started by entering Brazil with a humanitarian visa as Brazil remains one of the only remaining routes out of Afghanistan. The individuals then embark on a journey north through 11 countries via human smuggling routes as they seek to enter the US at the Mexican border.  Reuters cites US government data which it says shows that US Border Patrol agents apprehended 2132 Afghans at the US southern border last year, a reported 30-fold increase over the prior year.  Reuters 

Western Europe

Austria Sentences Four Linked to 2020 Vienna Terrorist Attack.  A Vienna court on Thursday sentenced four of six men accused of helping a jihadist commit a mass shooting in central Vienna in 2020.  Four people died in the attack, and the shooter was killed by police.  Most of the defendants reportedly supported Islamic State like the attacker but claimed they did not know he was planning the shooting.  Two of the six defendants were given life sentences and another two were given sentences of around 20 years in prison for being accessories to murder.  Five of the six were found to be members of a terrorist organization.  Reuters

Austria Expels Four Russian Diplomats.  The Austrian Foreign Ministry says it has declared four Russian diplomats persona non grata for violating international agreements, language usually used with espionage cases.  Two of the expelled diplomats work at the Russian embassy to Austria and the other two work at the Russian mission to the UN in Vienna.  The ministry did not provide more details on the diplomats’ offenses.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW Update on Ukraine War February 2, 2023.  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine war update for February 2, 2023 cites Ukrainian defense officials as saying that they believe Russia will imminently move to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in what they describe as a likely decisive offensive operation in February and March.  A Ukrainian Colonel says he does not believe Moscow has sufficient resources to mount offensives along the entire front line and will focus its efforts in the Donbas.  A senior Ukrainian intelligence official says that due to the poor state of Russian equipment, the Russian military command will continue to attempt to outnumber Ukrainian defenders by massing large numbers of troops.  ISW

Russian Missile Strike Kills 3, Fighting Rages Along Front Lines as EU Leaders Arrive in Kyiv for Talks.  Russian Missile Strike Destroys Apartment Building as EU Leaders Meet in Kyiv.  Ukrainian officials say that a Russian Iskander-K tactical struck a residential area in the town of KramatorskWednesday night killing 3 people and destroying an apartment building.  This comes as a dozen EU leaders arrived in Kyiv for talks that will include increasing Europe’s support for Ukraine.  Head of the EU Commission Ursula von der Layen said upon arrival that the “EU stands by Ukraine as firmly as ever”.  The talks are expected to cover more military and economic support to Ukraine, but analysts say that Kyiv’s hopes of rapid membership into the EU are likely to be dashed, citing the ongoing war, efforts to reduce corruption and the historically long waiting period for entry into the block.  This comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says that fighting along the front has intensified and says that Moscow is clearly attempting to show some gains and battlefield successes as the one-year anniversary of the war approaches. Zelenskiy also thanked law enforcement for the intensified efforts to investigate allegations of corruption among Ukrainian officials. Reuters Wall Street JournalNY Times  Deutsche Welle CNN

Russia Vows to Push Ukrainian Military Back to Create Buffer from Long-Range Rockets.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says that US long-range missile deliveries to Ukraine will force Russia to try and push back Ukrainian forces in order to create a buffer.  Lavrov said it was an “objective reality” that Moscow had increased its territory, referring to the illegally annexed regions of Ukraine that Russia claims as its own territory, and that longer range weapons would require Russia to create a buffer zone to ensure the safety of its forces and territory.  This comes as the US announced a new $2 Billion aid package for Ukraine that is expected to include longer range rockets, a move that the Kremlin says will escalate the conflict but not deter Moscow from its objective.  Ukraine has said it plans to retake all of Crimea by force.  Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Georgia’s President Says Russia Must Retreat from All Occupied Areas.  Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili says that any eventual peace deal with Moscow must include a measure that forces Russia to withdraw from occupied territories in Georgia.  Speaking in an interview in Tbilisi, she says that Russia “has to learn where its borders are” and says that the war in Ukraine cannot be resolved without a full retreat of Russia from Georgia.  Moscow fought a brief war with Georgia in 2008 resulting in the Kremlin recognizing two secessionist areas as independent. Russian forces have been stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, representing about one fifth of Georgian territory.  The president’s comments are in contrast with the country’s Prime Minister, who has significantly more influence over policy decisions and has maintained a more neutral position since the beginning of the Ukraine war.  Bloomberg

Asia

North Korea Says Situation Approaching “Extreme Red Line” over US Actions. North Korea says the US has pushed the situation on the Korean peninsula to an ‘extreme red line’ over recent military exercises with South Korea and amid intensified efforts by the US to bolster its regional presence.  The comments were made by the North’s foreign ministry and published by state media.  It cited a visit by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to South Korea this week where the US and South Korea vowed to strengthen military exercises and increase ‘strategic assets’ in the region such as aircraft carriers and long-range bombers.  Reuters 

NATO Chief Says ‘No Justification’ for Chinese Aggression in Taiwan Strait.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that the military alliance is concerned about China’s threatening, coercive behavior against Taiwan.  He stressed that “there is no justification” for Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait and says a conflict over Taiwan would have grave consequences for regional and global security.  He added that China is not an “adversary” for NATO but that its rising influence does pose security risks.  His remarks came in an interview with Nikkei Asia in Tokyo during an East Asia tour aimed at deepening NATO’s ties with South Korea, Japan and other Indo-Pacific allies.  Nikkei Asia

Chinese Claim to Have Created Hypersonic Generator to Power Future Weapons. Researchers in China say they have built an advanced, hypersonic generator that can be used to power advanced weapons such as military lasers, rail guns and microwave energy weapons.  The researchers, working with the Institute of Mechanics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences say the device works by converting gas which is moving at hypersonic speeds into powerful electrical current.  The team claims the generator is a solution to one of the biggest challenges in development of pulsed-energy weapons which is the ability to produce high-power energy with a smaller and more efficient device than conventional power generation.  South China Morning Post 

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese Expected to Visit Beijing This Year.  The South China Morning Post says that senior Australian and Chinese trade officials are set to hold a virtual meeting next week and that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to visit Beijing later this year, according to sources familiar with the plans.  Australia’s foreign affairs office said next week’s meeting is a significant step in attempts to stabilize relations between Canberra and Beijing.  China’s ministry of commerce confirmed the meeting, which is expected to include discussions on removing existing trade restrictions between the two countries.  South China Morning Post 

Australian Radioactive Capsule En route to Storage.  Australian authorities are returning a recently recovered radioactive capsule that got lost in Western Australia to storage.  The Australian government declined to identify the capsule’s destination given security concerns.  No one is expected to have been exposed to radiation from the capsule and the area it was found did not get permanently contaminated.  However, authorities are launching an investigation into how the capsule was lost.  Authorities say it was part of a gauge used at a Rio Timro mine and that the gauge broke while in transport, dislodging the capsule.  Reuters

US Opens Solomon Islands Embassy.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Wednesday that the US has opened an embassy in the Solomon Islands.  It is the first US embassy in the Solomons in 30 years.  The new embassy comes amid increasing concerns about China’s influence amongst Pacific Island nations.  Reuters 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Airstrike Targets Gaza in Response to Rockets, Days After Blinken Visit.  Media reports say that Israel aircraft struck targets in Gaza on Thursday in response to multiple rounds of Palestinian rockets that were fired into Israel on Wednesday and Thursday.  The incidents come less than two after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders where he urged a deescalation of the violence.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with CNN on Wednesday says that he doesn’t believe the two sides will make any significant progress on peace any time soon, and reiterated his view of a two-state solution that includes limited sovereignty for Palestine, with Israel controlling security in the region.  All of this comes amid heightened tension between Israel and Palestine following the recent deaths of Palestinians in an Israeli raid in Jenin and a terrorist attack in Jerusalem that killed Israeli worshippers.  Reuters CNN 

Israeli Drones use Free-Falling Gravity Bombs. Reuters spoke with an Israeli military officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity where he described some drone capability of the Israeli military.  The officer says that Israel’s armed drone fleet includes drones that can carry free-falling, gravity bombs.  One aircraft, known as the Heron TP is reportedly the size of a passenger plane and can carry a payload of munitions up to one ton.  The officer says that the gravity bombs that the drone carries are able to strike their targets without the noise of engines or tell-tale signs of smoke, making them extremely difficult to detect before they arrive. Reuters 

IAEA Says Iran Made Significant Change to Fordow Nuclear Operations.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a confidential report to member states on Wednesday where it says that a connection between two centrifuges at Iran’s Fordow nuclear site had been changed and were “substantially” different from what had been previously declared to the agency.  Reuters, which reviewed the report, says it did not specify how the connection had been changed.  Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami pushed back on the report and says that the IAEA’s interpretation was incorrect and that an explanation had been provided by Iran the same day.  The 2015 nuclear deal banned any type of enrichment at the Fordow location and this latest development comes amid stalled negotiations and as Iran has reportedly violated numerous restrictions on its nuclear activities contained in the 2015 framework. Reuters   

Cyber and Tech

CISA Director Says Cybersecurity Should Be Responsibility of CEO’s.  CISA Director Jen Easterly and Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity Eric Goldstein say that a massive cultural shift in how we think about the creation of technology is needed to reverse the worsening trend of cyber attacks.  They say that responsibility for the safety of technology products should be shifted to company CEO’s and Board’s who need to be incentivized to consider security at the design stage of products.  Failure to do so they say will result in America’s critical infrastructure and our communities remaining at risk.  Foreign Affairs

US Army Using Virtual Maintenance to Support Ukraine.  The deputy chief of US Army Materiel Command, Lieutenant General Christopher Mohan, spoke to DefenseNews about the US military’s use of virtual services to support Ukrainian forces.  Mohan highlighted how the US Army offered remote maintenance and repair instruction to Ukrainian troops, relying on a variety of communication channels from text message chats to live stream sessions.  Mohan said this remote maintenance capability is crucial for “distributed sustainment operations on a highly lethal battlefield.”  He said lessons from the Ukraine war on this service are being compiled into a new plan to help inform operations in other theaters. DefenseNews

Senior Space Force Officer Highlights Cyber Risk to Satellites.  US Space Force Chief of Space Operations General Chance Saltzman told reporters Tuesday that he is concerned about vulnerabilities in satellite communications networks.  Saltzman said the Ukraine war has demonstrated that satellite operations are a key target and can be disrupted by using backdoors to compromise ground networks which would allow hackers to compromise satellite operations without having to directly attack the satellites in orbit.  His comments come as the Pentagon’s Space Development Agency is moving forward with plans to deploy a new constellation of low-earth orbit satellites that will play a major role in the DOD’s ability to execute its Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept.  Defense Scoop 

China Condemns New US Restrictions on Huawei.  China’s foreign ministry said Tuesday that new US trade restrictions on Huawei shows that Washington is pursuing “technology hegemony.”  The US Commerce Department recently decided to halt approval of all export licenses for US companies to supply most items to Huawei in an expansion of controls on the company over national security concerns.  The Chinese foreign ministry criticized these measures as against the market economy and an “abuse of state power.”  Associated Press

Denmark Increases Cyber Security Alert Level Over Russia-linked Attacks.  Cyber officials in Denmark are raising the alert level citing an increase in Russian linked cyber attacks.  This comes after Denmark says its banks and defense ministry has been targeted for weeks and comes amid what it says is an overall increase in the hackers capability and a rise in activity targeting NATO countries.  The Record 

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