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Thursday, February 16, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Officials Say Downed Chinese Spy Balloon Originally Aimed for Guam and Hawaii.  Reuters reports that the Chinese spy balloon the US military downed off the South Carolina coast was originally meant to fly over Guam and Hawaii but was blown off course by prevailing winds, citing a US official speaking on condition of anonymity.  The report adds to a Washington Post report on Tuesday that said US military and intelligence agencies reportedly tracked the balloon as it launched from its home base on China’s southern Hainan Island and began on a flight path towards Guam.  The Washington Post cited US officials who provided the information on the condition of anonymity.  The public first learned of the balloon after it was spotted by civilians in a civilian aircraft after it was already over the continental United States.  The reports suggest that US officials are increasingly believing the balloon strayed off course, underscoring the difficulties the US and China face in understanding each other’s intentions amid fraught relations.  At a press conference on Thursday a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson refused to answer when asked if the balloon’s original route was intended for Guam and Hawaii. Forbes New York Times Reuters Washington Post

China Sanctions Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Over Taiwan Arms Sales.  China’s commerce ministry placed Lockheed Martin Corp and Raytheon Technologies Corp on an “unreliable entity” list on Thursday over the US defense contractors’ arms sales to Taiwan.  The move prohibits the firms from further investment in China and imports and export activities related to China.  Senior management are also barred from entering China.  Beijing is also fining the companies double the contracted amounts of their arms sales to Taiwan since September 2020.  China says the companies must pay in 15 days, though it is unclear how China will enforce the fines.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal

White House Advisor on China to Leave Post.  The White House says Laura Rosenberger, special assistant to the president and the US National Security Council’s senior director for China and Taiwan, will leave her post later this month.  The White House praised her work and said her departure plans were made long before ongoing tensions over the Chinese spy balloon incident.  Rosenberger will be replaced by Sarah Beran, who will join from the State Department.  South China Morning Post

US Congress Members Attempt to Stop Nigeria Weapons Deal. Representative Sara Jacobs (D-CA) and Representative Chris Smith (R-NJ) of the Foreign Affairs Committee and subcommittee on Africa called on President Joe Biden to halt a $1 billion weapons sale to Nigeria following previous reporting of an alleged illegal abortion program being carried out by the Nigerian military. The two also called for a review of a number of US programs in Nigeria, as well as a risk assessment of arms assistance.  Reuters

Western Europe

NATO Chief Urges Turkey to Swiftly Approve Sweden, Finland membership Bids.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Turkey should move quickly to ratify the membership bids of Sweden and Finland.  His comments came at a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara. Cavusoglu said at the same event that Ankara would consider evaluating the membership bids separately, echoing recent comments by Ankara.  Turkey has held up the approval over its concerns that Sweden has not been aggressive enough towards groups that Turkey considers to be ‘terrorist’ groups or political opposition.  Al Jazeera Radio Free Europe 

Websites of Several German Airports Down in Possible Cyber Attack.  The websites of several German airports – in Dusseldorf, Nuremberg, Erfurt-Weimar and Dortmund – went down on Thursday in a possible hacking attack.  Authorities say they are investigating the issue.  It is unclear if air traffic is impacted by the outages.  German media reports that the problems may have been caused by a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack.  The websites of Germany’s largest airports – in Frankfurt, Munich and Berlin – are reportedly operating normally.  The disruptions came a day after a major IT failure at Germany’s national airline Lufthansa, which was blamed on construction that damaged broadband cables.  The outage stranded thousands of passengers at Frankfurt airport.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Macron to Discuss “Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine” at Munich Security Conference.  French President Emmanuel Macron plans to discuss how to ensure “Russia’s defeat” in Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference Élysée Palace said Wednesday.  Macron also plans to discuss France’s recent actions to support Ukraine and lead a dialogue to examine future security guarantees for Europe.  France24 

Netherlands Confirms Support for Ukraine Tank Transfers following German Media Article. The Netherlands reaffirmed its willingness to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Wednesday following a report by German newspaper Die Welt on Wednesday that said that the Netherlands and Denmark had reversed a decision to send the tanks to Ukraine . The Netherlands, which does not own the tanks, leases 18 of them from Germany, and maintains that it still supports the decision to send them, but is working with Germany to decide which specific tanks will be sent. Earlier this month, The Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany announced that they would buy 100 Leopard-1A5 tanks to send to Ukraine. Euronews Reuters

NATO Announces New Office to Improve Industry Cooperation Following Nord Stream Blasts. NATO announced on Wednesday a plan to improve coordination with critical infrastructure companies by creating a new office at its Brussels headquarters.  This comes amid an ongoing investigation into attacks, which have been characterized as sabotage, on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September of last year. The new effort aims to improve cooperation and coordination with the private sector. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stolenberg added that this will  “bring key military and civilian stakeholders together to share best practices.” Reuters

EU Parliament Session Suspended Over Kurdish Protests.  The EU parliament temporarily suspended a session on Wednesday due to a pro-Kurdish protest that briefly disrupted proceedings.  The protesters were in the visitor area of the parliament and held flags showing  Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan, a founder of the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey, the US and EU designate as a terrorist organization.  Ocalan has been imprisoned in Turkey since 1999 on charges of treason.  Several EU lawmakers, including the Parliament’s president Robert Metsola, negotiated with the protesters and reached a peaceful resolution.  Associated Press Politico

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023.  ISW’s Ukraine war update for February 15 says that Russia’s campaign in Ukraine has likely depleted its conventional military capability to the point where Moscow is incapable of massing enough combat power to achieve a significant breakthrough in its ongoing offensive.   Institute for the Study of War

UK Says Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine.  U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC in an interview that he believes that 97% of Russia’s army is now deployed to Ukraine.  Despite the significant commitment of military force, Wallace says that so far he has not seen evidence that Russia is capable of massing enough combat power to achieve a significant breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses.  Russia is attempting to seize territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions following a string of setbacks last year and according to multiple analysts and Ukrainian officials, before Ukraine receives new tanks and other sophisticated weapons from its allies.  Multiple media reports say that despite an intensified effort to advance, Russia’s army has made incremental progress which has come at a huge cost in terms of human casualties and lost equipment.  Wall Street Journal NY Times

Russia Reportedly Moves Significant Numbers of Aircraft Closer to Ukraine.  A Ukrainian military intelligence official told the Kyiv Post that Russia has amassed around 450 tactical aircraft (not strategic bombers) and 300 helicopters to locations in Western Russia closer to Ukraine.  The official said the aircraft are at least 200 kilometers from the border in different areas, just out of range of Ukrainian missile systems like the US-delivered HIMARS.  Despite the worrying buildup of aircraft, the official said it is “unlikely” that Russia will launch a single massive air assault, but that the aircraft may be used to support Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.  Kyiv Post

Russia Missiles Strike Targets Across Ukraine.  Air raid alerts were heard across Ukraine on Thursday as a significant Russian missile attack targeted critical infrastructure, including Ukraine’s largest oil refinery.  Ukrainian officials say that Russia launched a total of 36 missiles and that Ukraine’s military successfully destroyed 16.  Ukraine says a 79-year old woman was killed, and seven people wounded in the attacks.  One missile struck an industrial site in the western city of Lviv.  The latest attacks come one day after NATO officials met in Brussels to pledge additional support for Ukraine.  Reuters France24 

Blinken Reportedly Calls Crimea a “Red Line” for Putin.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that a Ukrainian attempt to retake the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula would be a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin that could lead to wider escalation in the Ukraine war.  The comments came in a private, off-the-record zoom call with “experts”. Four people who were reportedly on the call, and who spoke to Politico on the condition of anonymity, say that Blinken inferred that the US thinks an effort to retake Crimea is not wise for now and is not encouraging Kyiv to attempt it, but said that the decision is ultimately up to Ukraine.  He added that the US will focus on supporting Ukrainian forces where the main fighting is in eastern Ukraine.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksiy has repeatedly said that Ukraine will not agree to any negotiations that fail to require a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from all occupied areas of Ukraine.  Politico

Ukraine Says it Shot Down Russian Balloons Over Kyiv.  Ukrainian officials say air defenses shot down six Russian balloons over the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Wednesday.  The Ukrainian military says it is investigating the exact purpose of the balloons but has said that Russia uses such aerial craft for reconnaissance or to confuse and exhaust air defense systems.  Ukrainian officials reported Tuesday that Russian balloons had also been spotted in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region.  Moldovan and Romanian officials said they detected balloons in their airspace on Tuesday, which prompted temporary closures of airspace in both countries.  Russia has not commented on the reported balloons.  It is unclear if Russia recently introduced them or if they are only now drawing attention due to the Chinese spy balloon and other UFO incidents in the US.  New York Times Reuters

Belarus Will Fight With Russia Only if Attacked.  Belarusian state media reports that Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko said that he will order Belarusian forces to fight with the Russian military in Ukraine only if Belarus is attacked.  Both Belarus and Ukraine have been fortifying their sides of the border amid tensions over the Ukraine war.  Lukahsneko has repeatedly denied claims that Belarusian forces will be dragged into the Ukraine war on Russia’s side.  Moscow and Minsk have increased military drills between the two countries recently and the Russian military has previously used Belarus as a staging area for attacks on Ukraine.  CNN Reuters

Russia Accused of “Double-Tap” Strike that Killed Former US Marine Pete Reed.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a new report citing eye witnesses that say the Russian missile strike that killed former US Marine Pete Reed, was the latest example of so-called “double-tap” strikes.   The tactic is reportedly used by Moscow to re-target a site once first responders and medics arrive to treat wounded.  Reed, a volunteer medic in Ukraine was killed on February 2 in Bakhmut and his fellow team members believe they were deliberately targeted as they arrived to treat wounded Ukrainians who had been injured in a missile strike near a bus station.  The WSJ says the Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.  Moscow has repeatedly denied that it targets civilians.  The incident was captured on video by another medic who was nearby and analysts say that the video shows that Russia used a Kornet anti-tank missile in the strike.  Wall Street Journal 

New Report Profiles Russian Official at the Center of Alleged Ukrainian Children Deportation Program.  CNN is out with a new report that profiles a Russian woman accused of leading a program that the US and European officials describe as the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, according to US-backed research by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab’s Conflict Observatory.  Researchers say that Maria Lvova-Belova, appointed by Putin as Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights in 2021 is the official who is at the center of an effort by Russia to have forcibly deported as many as 6,000 Ukrainian children to Russia since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine.  Russia’s embassy in Washington DC dismissed the report as “absurd” and said that the US and Ukraine are complicit in the deaths of Ukrainian children in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.  UN officials and other analysts say that if true, the accusations of forced deportation in times of war could be both a war crime and a crime against humanity.  CNN

Serbian Nationalists Protest Against Kosovo Negotiations, Threaten Intense Riots. Hundreds of Serbian protestors gathered on Wednesday demanding that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic pull out of negotiations to normalize ties with breakaway Kosovo. The negotiations are part of the Western Plan for Kosovo which would allow Kosovo to join international institutions without objections from Serbia. Nationalist groups are demanding that Serbia pull out of the negotiations, a move that Vucic says would jeopardize plans for Serbia to integrate into the European Union. If Serbia does not pull out of the negotiations, nationalist groups have threatened riots. Deutsche Welle  Reuters

Asia

US Warns China Against Using US Lawmaker Visits as Pretext for Move Against Taiwan.  US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told a Brookings Institution event that the US hopes China does not use visits by US lawmakers to Taiwan as a pretext for military action against the island.  Her comments come after several US lawmakers visits to Taiwan and amid speculation that US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy may visit soon as well.  Concerns over escalation from these visits comes from China’s increase in military activity around Taiwan following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island last August.  Sherman added that all countries should urge China against military moves on Taiwan, saying that the Ukraine war has shown a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would negatively impact the whole world.  Brookings Reuters

Paraguay President Visits Taiwan.  Paraguayan President Mario Abdo met Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday.  The two hailed their countries’ strategic ties and pledged to strengthen cooperation and deepen their friendship.  Abdo’s visit comes ahead of a key election in April that could endanger Paraguay’s ties with Taipei.  The opposition says that if it wins the election, it will cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of relations with China to boost soy and beef exports.  Paraguay is one of only 14 countries with diplomatic relations with Taiwan.  Associated Press Reuters

China Warns Japan, South Korea Against Balloon Tensions.  China warned Japan and South Korea against following US criticism of Beijing over alleged Chinese spy balloons.  The Chinese foreign ministry first warned Japan after the Japanese defense ministry said it observed at least three unidentified flying objects in Japanese airspace since 2019 that Tokyo strongly believes were Chinese unmanned reconnaissance balloons.  China’s vice foreign minister later told South Korea’s ambassador in Beijing that Seoul should be objective and rational when dealing with such issues.  Beijing’s warnings come amid tensions from the Chinese spy balloon incident in the US, which has worried other countries about China’s global surveillance balloon operations.  South China Morning Post

Beijing Announces Aggressive New Measures to Censure Media.  Beijing is set to expand its crackdown on media with a new effort to target what it describes as “unauthorized” media according to Xinhua news agency.  Citing independent, for-profit, commercial and internet websites as potential targets, the report says that China’s Central Propaganda Department will take aggressive steps to punish those found guilty of operating without authorisation and who spread “fake news” against the Central Communist party or Beijing’s government policies. South China Morning Post  

South Korea Defense Paper Calls North Korea an ‘Enemy.’  South Korea’s most recent edition of a biennial report describes North Korea as an “enemy” for the first time in six years.  The designation was made over Pyongyang’s weapons development programs, cyber and military aggression and its recent portrayal of Seoul as an “enemy.”  The report also says that Pyongyan is continuing to reprocess spent fuel from nuclear reactors and now has 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of weapons-grade plutonium.  The report also details the North’s 2022 launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, though it says further analysis is needed to assess their re-entry capabilities.  In regards to Japan, the report describes Tokyo as a “close neighbor that shares values” for the first time since 2016 amid shared concerns over North Korea and efforts to mend relations.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

New Job as Al-Qaeda Leader Comes with $10m Bounty. Some job benefits are worse than others.  Though the terrorist organization hasn’t officially named a new head, a United Nations report identifies former Egyptian Special Forces Officer Seif al-Adel as the new ‘uncontested’ leader of al-Qaeda, replacing former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike last year.  As a high-ranking member of al-Qaeda, al-Adel is bringing a $10m U.S. bounty with him into his new role.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Ethiopia Accuses Rebels of Killing 50. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has accused the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) of killing at least 50 people in an attack in the Oromiya region this month. OLA is a banned splinter group of the larger Oromo Liberation Front, a formerly banned opposition party. The group has not commented on the allegations.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

TikTok CEO Defends App Against US National Security Concerns.  TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew spoke with the Washington Post in an exclusive interview about the video sharing app’s future in the US.  His interview came as Chew is meeting with members of Congress and state governors to defend the company amid moves to ban the app over national security concerns, as its parent company is Chinese tech giant ByteDance.  Chew maintains that Beijing has not asked for US user data and says he would not provide it if asked, as the US data is subject to US law.  Chew said he understands distrust of the app and is working to persuade critics that a ban is unnecessary to address concerns over data privacy, censorship and Chinese government influence.  So far, US lawmakers appear unconvinced and continue to see TikTok as a national security threat.  TikTok is pushing a $2.4 billion corporate restructuring plan called Project Texas, which would allow some US government influence and oversight over the company, though Chew said the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US has yet to approve the plan.  Washington Post

Zero-Day Attack on Healthcare Giant Compromises Data of 1 Million Patients.  Tennessee-based healthcare provider Community Health Systems (CHS) confirmed it was impacted by attacks exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in a file sharing platform made by Fortra.  Fortra first announced Monday that it suffered a “security incident” that affected CHS.  Initial investigations suggest the attacks compromised the personal and health information of up to 1 million CHS patients.  CHS says the attack has not affected its business and patient care operations.  The Clop ransomware gang claims it was behind the attacks and that it breached 130 Fortra clients.  BleepingComputer said it was unable to confirm the group’s claim.  BleepingComputer TechCrunch

‘Five Eyes’ Nations Working with Allies on Indo-Pacific Information Warfare.  C4ISRNET is out with a report on how the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing allies are working with several countries, including Japan to better understand and counter information warfare in the Indo-Pacific.  Vice Admiral Kelly Aeschbach, commander of Naval Information Forces, told C4ISRNET that working with like-minded nations in the region, particularly Japan, on information warfare is key to the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy amid concerns like China’s rising influence.  C4ISRNET

Hackers Target Bahrain Government Websites to Mark Arab Spring Uprising.  Apparent cyberattacks briefly took down the websites of Bahrain’s international airport, state news agency and chamber of commerce and the website of a pro-government Bahraini newspaper on Tuesday.  A hacker group that calls itself Al-Toufan, or “The Flood” in Arabic, claimed responsibility for the hacks, saying the disruptions marked the 12-year anniversary of an Arab Spring uprising in Bahrain.  The Bahrain government said the attack did not affect its operations and that it is restoring the websites.  Associated Press

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