Report for Thursday, August 8, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Arab and Western nations urge Iran to use restraint. Hezbollah may strike even if Iran doesn’t

Ukraine's unprecedented attack on Kursk Oblast brings war back to Russian soil

U.S. sustained campaign against Houthis is getting expensive

Taylor Swift’s Vienna concerts canceled, two men arrested for plotting ISIS attack

NASA says Starliner astronauts could remain aboard space station until 2025

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Americans Need to Understand We’re Living in a New Era of Global ThreatsThe Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

International airlines avoiding airspace over Iran, Lebanon, Israel.  The U.K. and Egypt Wednesday advised their airlines to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace after Iran and Hezbollah swore to avenge the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Egypt’s civil aviation ministry instructed its airlines to stay out of Iran’s airspace from 4:30 to 7:30 on Thursday, Aug. 8 Tehran time due to “military exercises.”  Many airlines are changing schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace. United Airlines said Wednesday that its flights to Tel Aviv, suspended since July 31, would remain canceled. Delta Air Lines has paused flights between New York and Tel Aviv through Aug. 31. British carriers are not flying to Lebanon. Singapore Airlines  stopped flying through Iranian airspace Friday.  On Sunday, Jordanian authorities asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes' worth of extra fuel.  Reuters Al Arabiya 

Arab and Western nations urge Iran to use restraint. Hezbollah may strike even if Iran doesn’t. Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are joining the U.S., France and other European countries in trying to hold back Iran from attacking Israel and in restarting stalled peace talks about Gaza.  Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman al-Safadi has traveled to Iran and met with new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials. Muhannad al-Mubaidin, Jordan’s minister of government communications, said that al-Safadi had informed the Iranians, “We will not allow for our airspace or land to be used for any purpose. We are not willing to be a battlefield.”  Saudi Arabia and Iran have recently taken steps to mend fences. On Wednesday Saudi Arabia convened an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and Saudi deputy foreign minister, Waleed El-Khereiji denounced the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as a “blatant violation” of Iran’s sovereignty. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to the Iranian president Wednesday, urging him to “avoid a new military escalation, which would be in nobody’s interest, including Iran’s, and which would cause lasting damage to regional stability.”  Qatar’s prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken that he had spoken Monday to Iran’s foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, about the need for restraint and that he had made a similar plea to Hezbollah. Egypt’s foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, called Bagheri Kani Tuesday, seeking to “contain the escalation in the region,” the Egyptian foreign ministry said.  CNN reported that U.S. intelligence is assessing that Hezbollah may strike Israel whether or not Iran does. Hezbollah’s planning and positioning appears to be moving faster than Iran, CNN said.  New York Times  CNN 

IDF, Shin Bet confirm they’ve eliminated “senior Hamas terrorist.”  In a statement posted on their Telegram channel early Thursday morning, the Israeli Defense Forces and Shin Bet announced they have killed a “senior Hamas terrorist” who led attacks in Judea and Samaria.  Nael Sakh died in an Israel strike on Gaza on July 24, the Israeli agencies said.   They said he was targeted for his involvement in Hamas' "West Bank Headquarters," helping direct terror activities in Judea and Samaria and financing and supplying weapons to terrorist cells. CGTN

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine's unprecedented attack on Kursk Oblast brings war back to Russian soil. Ukraine's unprecedented attack on Kursk Oblast marks a significant escalation, as Ukrainian forces advanced up to 15 kilometers into Russian territory. The offensive, involving hundreds of troops and dozens of vehicles, started on Tuesday and targeted the town of Sudzha, 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This large-scale incursion, unlike previous smaller raids, has prompted a state of emergency in Kursk and heightened security around a nearby nuclear power station. President Vladimir Putin called the offensive a "large-scale provocation. Russian forces were battling Ukrainian troops for a third day on Thursday, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying that its forces continue to engage Ukrainian troops in the Sudzhansky and Korenovsky border districts of Kursk Oblast. Despite the attack's reported early success, Ukrainian officials remain silent on the operation's specifics. The assault aims to exploit weaker Russian defenses near the border, contrasting with the intense battles in southern Ukraine. This maneuver may force Russia to reallocate resources, impacting its offensive in Donetsk. However, the strategic objectives and potential long-term benefits of Ukraine's incursion remain uncertain. Kyiv Independent Reuters  CNN Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Reuters New York Times

Putin reacts as Russia battles a cross-border Ukrainian attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin labeled Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast a "large-scale provocation," claiming Ukrainian forces targeted civilian areas. The offensive, one of the largest into Russian territory, involves regular Ukrainian troops and has heightened Kremlin alarm. Russian authorities reported casualties, evacuations, and ongoing battles, with Ukrainian forces yet to confirm their involvement. Putin instructed agencies to assist affected residents, and military leaders vowed to push Ukrainian forces back. Politico EU

Russia's Medvedev Calls For Further Advances In Ukraine Amid Kursk Incursion. Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and now deputy chief of Russia's Security Council, called for deeper Russian military incursions into Ukraine. This comes amid Russia's claims of intercepting Ukrainian drones and missiles targeting the Kursk region. Kursk's acting governor declared a state of emergency due to ongoing Ukrainian offensives. Russia reported downing multiple drones and missiles over Kursk and Belgorod regions. Medvedev suggested advancing into Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolayiv, and Kyiv. Meanwhile, President Putin labeled Ukraine's actions as provocations, while Ukrainian President Zelenskiy emphasized the importance of continued resistance for peace. RFE/RL

Sumy Oblast announces mandatory evacuation for 6,000 residents as Russia intensifies attacks amid Kursk incursion. Sumy Oblast authorities announced the mandatory evacuation of 6,000 residents from 23 border settlements amid intensified Russian attacks, Governor Volodymyr Artiukh said on August 7. Over the past day, Russian forces dropped around 30 guided aerial bombs on these areas. The evacuation follows reports of Ukraine's cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. Despite the tense situation, Artiukh stated it remains under control of Ukraine's Armed Forces. The region has faced daily strikes since its liberation in April 2022. Kyiv Independent 

How Russia’s summer offensive is reshaping the war in Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attacks on Ukraine have become more ferocious over the summer, as the Russian military puts pressure on Ukrainian defenders all along the eastern front. How is Russia’s war evolving? (Infographic)  The Guardian 

ANALYSIS–Can Ukraine Get Back on the Offensive? In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, Mick Ryan analyzes Ukraine's potential to regain the offensive amid Russia's waning momentum. Despite challenges, including manpower shortages, insufficient air defense systems, and economic strain, Ukraine is strategically positioned to capitalize on Russia's ineffectiveness. Ryan emphasizes the importance of Ukraine studying battlefield weaknesses, coordinating with NATO, and developing a victory strategy that combines military, economic, diplomatic, and informational efforts. The article stresses that Ukraine's success will depend on its ability to adapt, secure continuous Western support, and exploit opportunities to weaken Russia's military position. Foreign Affairs

Ukraine’s Pocket-Sized Answer to Russian Drones. Facing Russian drone threats, Ukrainian soldiers have embraced the pocket-sized Tsukorok (“sugar”) detector, created by London-based Ukrainian engineer Dmytro Selin. This affordable, easy-to-use device beeps when a drone is nearby, allowing soldiers to take cover or activate jammers. Despite Russia's electronic warfare superiority, grassroots initiatives like Tsukorok offer crucial support. Ukraine's electronic warfare efforts include over 50 companies producing various detection and jamming devices, though demand far exceeds supply. The Prytula Foundation and other groups strive to meet this need amid logistical challenges. Tsukorok, while not a miracle solution, provides vital last-minute warnings, enhancing soldier safety on the battlefield. Foreign Policy

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 15 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed at least two people and injured 15, including a child. Overnight, Ukraine intercepted two Kh-59 missiles and four "kamikaze" drones. In Dnipropetrovsk, two men and a child were injured, and civilian properties were damaged. In Donetsk, two were killed and four injured. Kherson saw eight injuries and damage to various structures. An oilseed plant in western Ukraine was also damaged. Other regions attacked reported no casualties. Kyiv Independent

Russian shelling kills four in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian shelling in Ukraine's Donetsk region killed at least four people on Wednesday, including an elderly couple in Antonivka village near the combat zone and another couple in Mykhaylivka settlement, according to regional governor Vadym Filashkin. The Donetsk region, partially occupied by Russian forces, frequently experiences shelling and airstrikes, remaining a key battleground as Russia targets strategic areas near the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Reuters

Ukroboronprom joins ranks of world's top 50 defense companies for first time. Ukraine's state-owned defense company, Ukroboronprom, has been ranked among the top 50 global defense companies by Defense News for the first time, moving up from 65th to 49th. Ukroboronprom, a key manufacturer of weapons and military hardware, saw a 72% revenue increase to $2.2 billion in 2023. Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin highlighted the goal of rapidly and efficiently producing and modernizing weapons to support Ukraine's defense forces, with expectations for the industry to become a significant export sector post-victory. Bloomberg

Ukraine says it raided Russian-controlled spit in Black Sea. Ukraine's military intelligence confirmed Wednesday a raid on the Russian-controlled Tendra Spit in the Black Sea, damaging equipment and fortifications and causing casualties. A video showed well-equipped Ukrainian soldiers landing on the shoreline. They destroyed a Russian electronic warfare system and armored vehicles. The Russian-installed governor said Ukraine used 12 high-speed vessels, sustaining no casualties, while Russia claimed to have destroyed three boats. The Tendra Spit is crucial for Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, August 7, 2024. Ukrainian forces advanced up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast, penetrating at least two defensive lines and seizing multiple settlements. The Kremlin's response to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast has been contradictory, balancing acknowledging escalation and avoiding domestic panic. Russian military bloggers criticized the military command for failing to prevent the Ukrainian offensive, highlighting strategic miscalculations and nepotism. Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter, showcasing their evolving drone capabilities. Ukrainian intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov estimated that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months. United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission head Danielle Bell reported that Russia has tortured 95% of Ukrainian POWs in detention. The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission refused to register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc for the October 2024 presidential election. A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin to six and a half years in prison for publishing "fake" information about the Russian military.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces advanced in several areas, including northeast of Siversk. Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Walz's long history with China attracts controversy.  Vice President Kamala Harris' selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has attracted criticism from Republicans and attention from China due to Walz's extensive history with the country. Former President Donald Trump’s supporters have highlighted Walz’s past teaching and frequent visits to China, suggesting that his ties are problematic. However, the Harris-Walz campaign counters that Walz has consistently criticized China's human rights record and stood up to the Chinese Communist Party. Walz, who taught in China in 1989 and has since organized student trips there, has been to China over 30 times. He has advocated for human rights and democracy, both as a congressman and as a member of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. Despite calls for a tougher stance on China, Walz believes in the potential for cooperation. His experience is seen by some experts as an asset for U.S. dealings with China. Meanwhile, Chinese commentators express skepticism about Walz's influence on U.S.-China relations, emphasizing national interests over individual perspectives.  Reuters  South China Morning Post 

U.S. sustained campaign against Houthis is getting expensive.   U.S. forces have launched roughly 800 missiles and seven rounds of air strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels menacing Red Sea shipping lanes.  If Iran attacks Israel using proxies in Lebanon and Yemen as expected, U.S. ships in the region will get caught in the middle.  Speaking at a virtual event Wednesday, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of Naval Forces Central Command, said the Houthis have a plentiful arsenal of drones and missiles, thanks to strong supply lines into Iran, “and are looking for a reason to use it.” Wikoff said 25 civilian ships have been attacked by the Houthis between 2016 and October 2023. The campaign has already required the U.S. to deploy warships to the Red Sea for months.  Rep. Joe Courtney of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Seapower panel, said extended operations could force an increase in the Pentagon budget beyond the Biden administration’s request.  Politico

Elon Musk’s rocket ambitions unnerve residents of Florida’s Space Coast.  Elon Musk’s space company wants to launch Starship, the Earth’s largest and most powerful rocket, dozens of times a year from the Cape. The SpaceX rocket is nearly 400 feet tall.  People commenting on the plan are raising objections about its loud noise and vibration.  It will have as many as 35 thruster engines that will exert 23 million pounds of force at takeoff.  Commercial fishermen, pilots and environmentalists are raising concerns about the impact on businesses and the environment.  Wall Street Journal  

U.S. judge throws out much of Mexico's lawsuit against American gun manufacturers. U.S. District Judge Dennis Saylor in Massachusetts dismissed a $10 billion lawsuit by the Mexican government against six U.S. gun makers, citing a lack of concrete evidence linking the manufacturers' activities to harm in Mexico. The lawsuit alleged that the companies knowingly sold weapons to traffickers, which ended up with violent drug cartels. However, the ruling allows the case to proceed against a seventh manufacturer and a gun wholesaler. Mexico is considering its options, including an appeal. Initially dismissed based on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) of 2005, the case was revived by the U.S. First Circuit Court of Appeals, which stated PLCAA did not apply to claims of deaths and injuries in Mexico. The Mexican government estimates that 70% of weapons trafficked into Mexico originate from the U.S. Reuters Associated Press 

Federal prosecutors want to deny bail to U.S. military veteran who tried to oust Venezuela’s Maduro.  Federal prosecutors in Tampa asked a federal judge Wednesday not to grant bail to Jordan Goudreau, a U.S. military veteran arrested in New York last week for shipping weapons to Colombia for a May 3, 2020, maritime raid aimed at ousting Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. The prosecutors called him a flight risk, citing his Google searches such as, "how to run and stay hidden from the feds," "what happens if i run from the law" and "how do you prove gun smuggling." Goudreau, a special forces veteran who ran Florida-based security firm Silvercorp USA, claimed responsibility for the failed raid by Venezuelan exiles and some U.S. military veterans. Reuters 

Growing legal challenges plague Venezuela’s opposition after disputed election. Venezuela's legal system escalated its actions against the political opposition on Wednesday, ruling Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition candidate who claims to have won the July 28 election, in contempt of court. Gonzalez refused to attend a Supreme Court summons for a certification of results and now faces up to 30 days in jail. He expressed concerns about his safety, the violation of due process, and “the will of the Venezuelan people.” Tensions continue to run high as police go after dissenters, detain protestors, and target opposition figures. On Tuesday, Maria Oropeza, a coordinator for Maria Corina Machado's political movement, live streamed a raid on her home, showing security officers trying to break in with a crowbar. On the broadcast, she is heard saying, “you’re entering my home arbitrarily, without any search warrant.” The video ended shortly afterwards, and her current location is unknown. Reuters Associated Press 

A Venezuelan professor has disappeared from an airport, fueling fear of repression as police trample on dissenters. Edni López, a 33-year-old political science professor, aid worker, and poet, has been missing since Sunday after being detained at the airport while attempting to board a flight to Argentina. Her passport was flagged as expired, and she later texted her boyfriend expressing concerns about the error. López's mother and friends discovered she was being held by Venezuela's military intelligence police on unknown charges, without access to a lawyer or family. This incident is part of a broader wave of repression following Venezuela's disputed presidential election. Over 2,000 people have been detained for protesting against President Nicolás Maduro or questioning his election victory, and security forces have intensified clampdowns on dissent, arresting journalists, political leaders, and activists, often in arbitrary and violent manners. The climate of fear has silenced political discourse, with many Venezuelans avoiding any activities that might attract government scrutiny. Maduro’s actions, which have been compared to the oppressive measures of 1970s Latin American military dictatorships, have drawn international condemnation and scrutiny, including an investigation by the International Criminal Court. Associated Press CNN 

Panama detains 15 for smuggling Chinese migrants via dangerous Darien Gap. Panama’s border police on Wednesday announced the arrest of 15 individuals accused of operating a smuggling ring that transported Chinese migrants through the Darien Gap, a hazardous jungle route connecting Colombia and Panama that is frequently used by migrants heading to the U.S. The number of Chinese migrants using this crossing has significantly increased, making them the fourth-largest group by nationality to use the route. In 2023, a record-breaking half a million migrants crossed the Darien Gap, with over 212,000 crossings reported so far this year, although recent reports suggest a decline in the flow. During raids, Panama’s National Border Service also seized 11 vehicles, two dozen cell phones, a rifle, and cash from the human trafficking network.  Associated Press South China Morning Post

EUROPE

Taylor Swift’s Vienna concerts canceled; two men arrested for plotting ISIS attack.  Taylor Swift’s three shows planned for Vienna this week were canceled after government officials announced the arrest of two men for allegedly plotting an attack at her concert stadium. One of the men was a 19-year-old Austrian. The second hasn’t been identified. Officials said both had been radicalized by internet contacts. One had sworn an oath to Islamic State and had chemical substances in his apartment. Gerhard Pürstl, head of the Vienna police said 65,000 people per day had been expected to attend the concerts, as well as 22,000 fans outside the venue. Colin P. Clarke of the Soufan Group, a New York security consulting firm, told the New York Times that many of the plots foiled in Europe this year featured young ISIS supporters, several of whom had been radicalized via TikTok.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post New York Times BBC Associated Press 

Germany considering how to boost defense spending by including military mobility. The German government is exploring ways to include transport infrastructure financing used by the military into its defense budget to meet NATO's spending goal. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Berlin established a €100 billion fund to modernize its military and meet NATO's 2 percent GDP spending target. However, the 2025 draft budget falls short of this goal, proposing only a €1.2 billion increase instead of the requested €6.5 billion. Germany faces challenges in maintaining the 2 percent spending level post-2027, and is considering including expenses for military mobility, such as reinforcing roads and railways for troop and tank movement, in its defense spending. NATO guidelines allow for some military-related civilian expenditures, provided they can be specifically accounted for. Politico

France requests FBI aid in investigation of high-speed train sabotage before Olympics.  French police have sought assistance from the U.S. FBI in investigating the sabotage of high-speed rail lines just before the Paris Olympics' Opening Ceremony in late June. The FBI's involvement was requested after media organizations received an email from the suspected perpetrators, detailing grievances but not claiming responsibility. The email, signed by "an unexpected delegation," came from riseup.net, a Seattle-based collective supporting anti-capitalist causes. Saboteurs targeted four high-speed TGV lines leading into Paris with incendiary devices, causing travel disruptions. No arrests have been made, but French officials suspect the work of domestic far-left groups, while not ruling out foreign involvement. As riseup.net is U.S.-based, French police want the FBI to help identify the email sender. Riseup is known for its strong stance against sharing user data, making compliance with subpoenas unlikely. Investigators are still considering potential foreign involvement, including a connection to a 2023 hack of the Polish rail system, initially attributed to Russia. France has accused Russia of disinformation efforts to disrupt the Olympics. Cooperation with Italian, German, and Spanish authorities is ongoing, as the attacks may have been coordinated with foreign anarchist groups. Reuters

Group of Western insurers offer cover for Russian oil in spite of price cap worries. A group of Western insurers, including American Club, Luxembourg-based West of England, and Norway's Gard, are providing coverage for tankers transporting Russian crude oil to keep the product moving despite a G7 price cap. This cap, imposed to limit Moscow's ability to fund the war in Ukraine, only allows Western insurers and ships to engage in Russian oil trade if the oil is sold below $60 a barrel. However, Russia has sold its Urals crude at an average of $69.4 per barrel, above the cap. The insurers are relying on attestations from the parties involved in the trade, affirming that the oil is sold below the price cap. These attestations do not require the actual price to be disclosed. Insurers and ship owners are not expected to investigate the price, leading to concerns about the efficacy and risks of this process. The International Group (IG) of P&I Clubs, which insures 90% of the global fleet, has criticized the attestation process as flawed. Despite these concerns, insurers like American Club, Gard, and others continue to provide cover, insisting that they will withdraw if it is found that the price cap was breached. The use of these attestations allows the insurers to legally operate under the current sanctions while maintaining the flow of Russian oil. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran Executes Another Protester After Trial Condemned by Rights Groups. Iran executed Reza Rasaei, a 34-year-old man arrested during the 2022 antigovernment protests, following a trial condemned by rights groups as unfair. Rasaei's execution, carried out secretly, comes weeks after Iran elected a reformist president. Amnesty International criticized the execution as a political repression tool. Arrested in November 2022, Rasaei was accused of involvement in a Revolutionary Guard member's death, a charge he denied. His conviction and death sentence followed a trial marked by irregularities. Rasaei belonged to Iran’s Kurdish minority, which has long faced discrimination. New York Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

South Korean defense chief says nuclear weapons would sour U.S. relations, shock financial markets. South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has warned that developing nuclear weapons could severely damage the country's alliance with the U.S. and destabilize financial markets. Despite increased calls from South Korean officials and conservatives for a domestic nuclear arsenal to counter North Korea's growing capabilities, Shin stressed that such a move would result in diplomatic and economic penalties, similar to a financial market crash. Shin acknowledged public anxiety over Washington’s extended deterrence but argued that strengthening this deterrence is the most “effective and peaceful” strategy against Pyongyang’s recurrent threats. The geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China, along with the Ukraine war, has intensified the complexity of Seoul's strategic decisions. Reuters 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s campaign against military corruption is a long way from over.  In November 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping promoted General Wei Fenghe just after becoming leader of China's Communist Party and military. Wei, then head of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Second Artillery Corps, which oversaw the nuclear arsenal, was expelled from the party last year along with his successor Li Shangfu for bribery and political disloyalty. This expulsion is just one in a series of dismissals as part of Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign within the military, which has seen numerous top generals purged. And the crusade is far from over, with unresolved cases and ongoing investigations into military officers continuing today, particularly within the PLA Rocket Force. Xi's efforts to strengthen military deterrence and rally top brass have included calls for loyalty and the elimination of corruption, amid concerns over the PLA's insular culture and systemic graft. According to analysts, corruption in the PLA, linked to rapid military modernization and equipment procurement, threatens its combat readiness. But in spite of Xi's tighter control over the military compared to his predecessors, structural corruption persists, exacerbated by a lack of transparency and external checks. Analysts argue that lasting change in the PLA will require more than just purges, but deeper systemic reforms and integration into the national legal framework. South China Morning Post 

Myanmar’s ruling junta reeling as ethnic insurgents seize key base. This week, Myanmar’s military regime conceded the capture of a key military base in Lashio by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), marking a significant hitch for the junta.  This seizure is part of a broader offensive by ethnic minority militias, which have been making advancements in the civil war. The loss of Lashio, a major trading town and the largest city captured so far, is particularly damaging as it was recently reinforced with 3,000 soldiers. The rebels also captured the highest-ranked prisoners of war so far. The capture is the first time a regional command has fallen to resistance groups, which have mounted serious challenges to the military's power. But this was not the junta’s only severe loss; an alliance of opposition forces launched a large offensive in Shan state in October, capturing significant territory and pressuring the military. Despite Chinese efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, resistance groups have continued to make gains, and Beijing has failed to control the rebels. With the capture of Lashio, resistance forces now control a significant portion of the country, and there is speculation that fighting may spread to junta strongholds like Myawaddy and Mandalay. Deutsche Welle

Bangladesh awaits installation of interim government as Yunus lands in Dhaka following weeks of unrest. Nobel Peace laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus touched down in Dhaka on Thursday and is set to take office as Bangladesh’s interim leader after an uprising ended the long-time rule of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Yunus, who was in Paris as an advisor for the Olympics, called for calm and urged the people to prepare to rebuild the country. He was chosen as interim leader following discussions among military officials, civic leaders, and student activists. Yunus will be sworn in by President Mohammed Shahabuddin, who dissolved Parliament to pave the way for an interim administration and new elections. Yunus praised student protesters for their role in what he called a "second Victory Day" and condemned the violence following Hasina's resignation. Bangladesh’s military chief, Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman, expressed confidence in Yunus’s ability to restore democracy. The economist indicated it was too soon to discuss election dates. Recently acquitted of a labor law violation, Yunus has been a longtime critic of Hasina, who faced accusations of human rights abuses and election rigging. Reuters Associated Press 

Thailand takes another backward step by banning main opposition party. Thailand's constitutional court on Wednesday banned Pita Limjaroenrat, a popular politician, from holding office and dissolved his Move Forward party. This move followed the party's proposal to amend laws against defaming the royal family. Pita, who led Move Forward to victory in the 2023 elections, faces a decade-long political ban. The decision, seen as a step back for democracy, highlights the influence of Thailand's military and conservative elite. Despite these setbacks, Pita remains determined to reform the country and preserve the monarchy, advocating for political patience and long-term strategy. Washington Post

AFRICA

Nigeria arrests seven Polish nationals for brandishing Russian flags at protests. Nigeria on Monday detained seven Polish citizens for waving Russian flags during anti-government protests in Kano, according to a spokesperson for the state security service. Protests against President Bola Tinubu's economic reforms erupted on August 1, and demonstrations have turned deadly in six northern states, with Amnesty International reporting 22 deaths, including more in Kano. Some protesters have waved Russian flags, raising concerns about increased Russian influence in West Africa. Security forces have also detained tailors who allegedly made these banners. The arrested Poles were not specifically targeted as Polish citizens, and they are currently being transported from Kano to Abuja. They include six students and a lecturer from the University of Warsaw who traveled to Nigeria for a study trip. Polish consul Stanislaw Gulinski confirmed the arrests, and the Polish foreign ministry said it is investigating to support the detainees and their families. However, Polish deputy foreign minister Andrzej Szejna denied that the Europeans were carrying flags, saying they “found themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time.” Nigeria's Chief of Defence Staff labeled the display of foreign flags during protests as a "treasonable offense." Meanwhile, the Russian embassy in Nigeria has denied any involvement in the protests. Reuters Associated Press

Tunisian president unexpectedly fires prime minister and appoints replacement. The Tunisian presidency announced on Wednesday that President Kais Saied has dismissed Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani and named social Affairs Minister Kamel Maddouri as his replacement. Hachani, who became prime minister in August last year, had earlier reported progress on various issues despite global problems, including securing food and energy needs. This sacking comes amidst increasing discontent in Tunisia, due to recurring water and electricity outages. President Saied, who is facing widespread criticism from opposition, human rights groups, and election competitors, announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections in October, amid allegations of restricting and intimidating his rivals to secure a second term. Reuters France 24  

CYBER & TECH

NASA says Starliner astronauts could remain aboard space station until 2025.  NASA officials told a news conference Wednesday that it continues to explore contingency options for the return of two Starliner astronauts who have spent more than 60 days aboard the International Space Station (ISS).  Options include having the two astronauts remain on the ISS for six more months before returning to Earth aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicle in 2025.  Ken Bowersox, associate administrator for NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate, said that “our chances of an uncrewed Starliner return have increased a little bit based on where things have gone over the last week or two.”  He added, however, that “new data coming in, new analysis, different discussion — we could find ourselves shift in another way.”  Meanwhile, NASA announced on Tuesday that it was delaying the launch of the SpaceX “Crew-9” mission that was scheduled to take four astronauts to the ISS in August.  NASA said the mission will not take place before September 24.  CNN   Ars Technica   Reuters

Senate intelligence chair urges tech platforms to intensify election interference defenses.  In a follow-up to commitments made at the Munich Security Conference in February, major U.S. tech firms have described in a letter to Senate Intelligence chairman Sen. Mark Warner their progress in countering election-related disinformation and disruptions.  The companies, which include OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, have undertaken efforts to implement new detection algorithms and watermarking techniques, and have collaborated with a variety of government and private organizations to improve detection and watermarking methods.  However, Sen. Warner told CyberScoop that he is “disappointed that few of the companies provided users with clear reporting channels and remediation mechanisms against impersonation-based misuses.”   Warner went on to note that with the election now less than 100 days away, “we must prioritize real action and robust communication to systematically catalog harmful AI-generated content.”   Despite the tech sector’s efforts, CyberScoop reported, social media platforms including TikTok continue to be flooded with “manipulated content impersonating politicians.”  Tim Harper, a think tank elections policy analyst, said that numerous challenges remain in detecting third-party deepfakes online.  He added that “watermarking is easily removable, and it’s still a developing technology. Its ability to really prevent harm this election cycle is quite limited.” CyberScoop

Senate bill proposes beefing up intelligence efforts by designating ransomware as terrorism.  A Senate bill to treat ransomware campaigns as acts of terrorism has prompted divided responses among tech experts, with some analysts deeming it a necessary measure while others question if additional sanctions would actually deter threat actors.  The proposed bill out of the Senate Intelligence Committee would label states that harbor ransomware gangs as “state sponsors of ransomware” and expand the authorities of the intelligence community to pursue ransomware actors.  Adam Maruyama, a former U.S. government counterterrorism expert, told CyberScoop that the legislation “calls out…nation-states in the world, North Korea in particular, who are making significant chunks of their GDP off of being state sponsors of ransomware.”  A more skeptical view was offered by James Lewis, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who remarked, “the ransomware part seems like kabuki.  Countries don’t always know about ransomware efforts, and it’s a stretch to call it terrorism. The intentions are very different.”  The bill would instruct the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to identify individuals, groups and entities that pose the most significant threat as well as the locations from which ransomware actors operate.  It would also task the intelligence community to detail commonly used infrastructure, tactics and techniques used by threat actors and describe their relationships with governments or countries of origin.  CyberScoop

Air Force ‘collaborative’ drone program progress, issues examined in CSIS report.  A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examined the prospects for a high-priority Air Force Project, the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) initiative.  CSIS points to a number of possible hurdles for the CCA program to overcome as it seeks to develop companion unmanned drones for Air Force fifth and sixth generation fighters.  The concept centers on developing a fleet of unmanned platforms that can be built quickly and at a fraction of the cost of crewed aircraft.  The CSIS analysis of the CCA program acknowledged the progress that has been made in pushing the concept forward but raises concerns that existing military procurement processes could make CCA drones too expensive to field in needed numbers.  The report especially cautions about mission creep for the CCA, which could easily add to development and production costs, undermining one of the program’s chief goals.  One of the report’s co-authors, Gregory Allen, told DefenseScoop that “the question here is, are we really thinking about the optimal design space in terms of the tradeoff between cost and performance?”  Ideally, CCA’s would have a modular design that would allow multiple missions, including attack, electronic warfare, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.  Despite the concerns about “exquisite” design that could drive up costs, the CSIS analysts credit Air Force leadership of the CCA initiative, pointing out that it is the “first real program of record at the Defense Department for an autonomous system.”  In addition to the platform itself, CSIS notes that the Air Force is addressing issues related to operational doctrine, infrastructure, training, and life cycle sustainment.  DefenseScoop   Center for Strategic and International Studies

Chinese security agency warns users of common office applications about espionage risks – Office workers in China have been warned by the country’s Ministry of State Security that online applications may pose espionage threats, citing repeated leaks in recent years from “powerful ‘dark technology’ functions.”  Among the at-risk tools mentioned by the ministry were instant communications, format converters, file transfer, and group discussion applications.  The ministry said that uploading confidential files to related platforms is “strictly prohibited” as they open opportunities for “overseas spying and intelligence agencies” to steal sensitive data.  Application users were also cautioned about information leaks from optical character recognition software that could expose text from images in confidential documentation.  A previous warning from the security ministry was directed at government officials highlighting the danger of storing classified information on cloud services, which have become “a major focus of foreign spy agencies.”   South China Morning Post

Chinese chip tool-making registers advances although lithography lags far behind.  Chinese suppliers of chip-making equipment are making progress in domestic manufacturing, but according to sector analysts they still face obstacles.  In the face of U.S. sanctions on equipment exports to China, domestic suppliers have focused on legacy chip production over leading-edge products.  Tool makers such as Naura Technology and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) reportedly are pushing a policy of “use first and fine-tune later” for domestic equipment.  Paul Triolo, an executive with the Albright Stonebridge consulting firm, said that the Chinese semiconductor tool sector has advanced over the last couple of years as a result of “greater vertical integration among tool makers, greater integration with front-end manufacturers, and much more collaboration across the entire industry supply chain.”  AMEC CEO Gerald Yin Zhiyao told a recent sector gathering that China could reach “a basic level of self-sufficiency in chip-making tools” by this summer. However, lithography remains a “chokepoint” for China, with only 1.2 percent of lithography systems in use in Chinese foundries sourced locally.  In addition to lithography issues, China’s local supply ratios for ion implantation and inspection and metrology systems are 1.4 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.  Chinese imports of ion implantation systems rose 20 percent to $1.3 billion in 2023 compared with the year before.  South China Morning Post

Cyber expert cites law enforcement success against cyber underground at Black Hat forum.  A cyber intelligence specialist participating in the Black Hat 2024 conference in Las Vegas told Cybernews he believes law enforcement is making progress against cybercriminals despite persistent high levels of ransomware attacks and system breaches.  Michael DeBolt, the chief intelligence officer for Intel 471, said law enforcement still has untapped potential in disrupting the cyber underground and is improving steadily to “make the world a better place.”  Recent law enforcement successes like the takedown of the LockBit infrastructure, DeBolt said, was encouraging.  Authorities turned the tables on the attackers, DeBolt recalled, and they were “really loud about it, and as they should have been. And it caused a lot of chaos and uncertainty for potential partners and affiliates that LockBit was trying to work with.”  He added that “it'd be great if we could go and put handcuffs on all these people,” but short of that authorities can still impose costs on attackers.  Undermining cybercriminals’ reputations, DeBolt pointed out, is an effective tactic: “The underground is all based on reputation, brand, and reputation. It's not unlike, you know, Fortune 500 companies that build their business on brand reputation.” DeBolt did note that Russian threat actors are “as strong as ever.  In comparison with China, he said, “Russian-speaking actors have a lot more opportunity, a lot more forums that cater to Russian-speaking actors.”  Cybernews

New NIST security algorithms propel preparations for post-quantum cryptography.  The coming publication of three new security algorithms by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) will add to the protections governments and tech companies can employ against the emerging threat of quantum hacking.  Sectors such as telecommunications and finance are preparing for the transition from conventional cryptography to quantum-resistant systems, those capable of withstanding attacks by next-generation quantum computers.  Dustin Moody, leader of NIST’s post-quantum cryptography standardization process, described the transition as “massive and expensive.”   The new NIST standards, which are awaiting final approval after a period of public comment, are part of the institute’s strategy for the post-quantum cryptography era.   Federal agencies will be required to use the new algorithms while the private sector’s adoption is voluntary.  There has been international research participation in NIST’s preparations for “Q-Day,” including Chinese scientists.  IBM executive Lory Thorpe described the new standards as “something of a catalyst for people to leap into action.”  The finalization of NIST algorithms should prod a response, UK Vodaphone research head Luke Ibbetson said, from those who to date have “stood on the sidelines.”  Financial Times

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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